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Posted by: Beate on Tuesday, May 6, 2008
This is fantastic! I just found out about your blog via the "Your Essential Chinese Investing Toolbox" email you sent this morning. With the blog and your other toolbox recommendations, getting better acquainted with the Asian market is easy. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Posted by: Dee Kenimer on Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Your answer surprised me. Oil isn't just about gas and diesel. Oil is in practically everything---all the plastics for example. ..in carpet fibers, plastic bags and trash cans, man made materials we wear, cooking gagets, toys, computers (I am typing on plastic keys), water& sewer& drainage pipes, all over the insides of cars/trucks, everywhere I look-- in nearly every aspect of life. In short, oil is an integral and necessary part of manufacturing, so I don't get how higher oil prices won't hit China also---except that their inflation is miniscule compared to ours.
Posted by: Beate on Monday, May 12, 2008
It's only been a few days since I started reading your blog and the Asian "newspapers" you recommended. Not only do all these venues provide a better sense of business in Asia, but today's earthquake tragedy in China is covered in much better detail there. We really do need to tune in more to the world and think of the longer term changes. I'm beginning to understand why you stick to your guns with your recommendations.
Posted by: David Bueche on Monday, July 7, 2008
Tony, From the looks of the charts (http://findata.co.nz/markets/Quote.aspx?e=INDEX&s=SSEC), today is shaping up to be a day 4 confirmation of the Chinese rally. Their markets are up 106.39 on rising volume, indicating major accumulation. O'Neill states that ideally you want to see this somewhere in days 4-7 of a rally attempt to confirm that the rally has teeth. Of course, the rally can still fail (as did the 4/30 and 6/25 confirmations), but no rally ever succeeds long term without a confirmation day. Also, after more than one confirmation failure, investors often become over-cautious, actually increasing the probability for a powerful and sustained rally as the rising market draws in more and more over-cautious investors. I had been keeping some powder dry and plan to deploy it tomorrow.
Posted by: David Bueche on Monday, July 7, 2008
One more thing on Dee Kenimer's comment: Expect the oil crunch to MASSIVELY impact the prices and availability of rubber products, especially tires. They require a substance called Butadiene (BD for short). This product, produced in decades past by the tire companies, is now contracted out. However, today it is not a major revenue product for the refineries. Therefore, they are not producing much of it. This is creating pretty big shortages for the tire companies. Any ideas on how to invest in that (other than just puts on Goodyear, etc.)?