Small-caps specialist, especially in natural resources, as well as an expert on Canadian and Australian investment.

I'm the natural resources analyst for MoneyandMarkets.com, and I trot the globe to bring you the best in gold, silver, oil, and other commodity stocks

Iran isn't happy with $120 per barrel oil -- it wants $150 per barrel oil! I think this is Iran's way of thumbing its nose at both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. We'll see if they follow through on the threat.

Iran plans to cut oil output next month - Fars News Agency
TEHRAN, May 13 (Reuters) - Iran plans to reduce oil output starting next month, probably by 400,000 to 1 million barrels per day, the semi-official Fars News Agency on Tuesday quoted an "informed source" as saying.
Iranian oil officials were not immediately available to comment on the report, which seemed to refer to the Iranian month starting on May 21. Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer. "The Islamic Republic of Iran, in line with preventing selling of crude, intends to cut its daily oil production ... from next month," Fars said, adding the exact amount to be cut would soon be announced by officials.

IEA Cuts 2008 Oil Demand Forecast for Fourth Month
The forecast was cut by 390,000 barrels a day to 86.84 million barrels a day, from 87.23 million barrels last month, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report. After today's revision, which "may not be the last,'' the group expects world consumption to grow 1.2 percent this year, the slowest expansion since 2006.

XX Note -- at the same time it was predicting oil use would go down, the IEA asked OPEC to pump more oil. If I was in OPEC, I'd be wondering what the IEA guys are smoking.

Also, the IEA’s new
Oil Market Report is out this morning. April world oil supply was down 400 thousand barrels per day from March to 86.8 million barrels per day. And April's production was also down 700 thousand barrels per day from the high in February.

U.S. import prices up 1.8% in April as petroleum gains
The price for imported petroleum rose 4.4%. The price for non-petroleum products rose 1.1% for the second consecutive month -- matching the largest one-month gain for the index since these prices were first published on a monthly basis beginning in December 1988.

XX Note -- the real story -- barely covered in most mainstream media outlets -- is that year-over-year import price inflation was literally off the charts in April, up a stunning 15.4%. This is the fastest rate of import price inflation in recorded history

Nissan Plans Electric Car in U.S. by 2010
In another deal -- maybe a test run for its US roll-out -- Nissan teamed with Renault to sell electric cars in Israel and Denmark. Renault will provide the cars and Nissan will supply lithium-ion battery packs.

Steel once again a hot commodity
Don't expect additional supplies of steel to ease the situation, Parr says. There are a few new steel mills coming online, but there's still nowhere near the capacity to meet the current level of demand, Parr says. "We're five years into this," he says. "Basic materials cycles last decades."

Here are some stories I find interesting. You may find them interesting, too.

Chinese oil imports dropped in April -- down 3.9% year over year.

On the other hand, Chinese oil and other energy demand is expected to surge when it hosts the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games in August.

Farmers across the world produced a record 2.3 billion metric tonnes of grain in 2007, up 4% on the previous year. And yet, stockpiles are at their lowest level in 30 years. Since 1961, the world’s cereal output has tripled, while the population has doubled. What happens if we have a failure of the global grain harvest?

Excerpt from The Post-American World by Fareed Zakaria:

The world's tallest building is in Taipei, and will soon be in Dubai. Its largest publicly traded company is in Beijing. Its biggest refinery is being constructed in India. Its largest passenger airplane is built in Europe. The largest investment fund on the planet is in Abu Dhabi; the biggest movie industry is Bollywood, not Hollywood. Once quintessentially American icons have been usurped by the natives. The largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore. The largest casino is in Macao, which overtook Las Vegas in gambling revenues last year. America no longer dominates even its favorite sport, shopping. The Mall of America in Minnesota once boasted that it was the largest shopping mall in the world. Today it wouldn't make the top ten. In the most recent rankings, only two of the world's ten richest people are American. These lists are arbitrary and a bit silly, but consider that only ten years ago, the United States would have serenely topped almost every one of these categories.

Global Warming: Still Doomed! Bill McKibben talks about "Civilization's Last Chance" ...

Melt all that Arctic ice, for instance, and suddenly the nice white shield that reflected 80% of incoming solar radiation back into space has turned to blue water that absorbs 80% of the sun's heat. Such feedbacks are beyond history

I'm appearing on Fox News today, from 2:20 to 2:26, on "America’s Pulse w/ Edie Hill," talking about oil and gas. I'm told they don't want stock picks. I'll probably have some ready anyway, just in case. CNBC blindsided me one time -- telling me they specifically DIDN'T want stock picks, only to ask for some at the end of my segment.

 
We took some profits in Red-Hot Commodity ETFs on Friday. Was that a smart move? We'll find out. I think oil has shot up so far, so fast, it should go back and test at least its $120 support level before heading higher again. Below that, there is strong support around $110 and $100.

I sent Mike Larson this bond-oil chart this morning and asked him why T-notes and oil are moving higher together. He replied: "The inflation vigilantes are on vacation."

It sure seems like gold is leading oil lower. Could gold retest 850 and maybe even 800 before heading higher again?

Keep your eye on agriculture. For one thing, I guess they're talking about different areas of Australia, but it's interesting to see these two bits of news ...

Australia May Produce Biggest Canola Crop in Nine Years as Drought Eases Australia, the world's third-largest canola exporter, may produce its biggest crop in nine years as growers seek to benefit from higher prices and weather conditions improve.

Drought Conditions Spread in New South Wales Before Plantings, State Says Drought conditions spread in Australia's New South Wales state, usually the nation's second- largest grain grower, as farmers prepare to sow the coming crop.

In the US, farmers are praying for a "window" so they can plant their corn crops. Will they get it?

Corn May Extend Record as Rainfall Cuts U.S. Planting; Soybeans May Gain Corn may rise from last week's record high on speculation that wet, cold weather will delay U.S. planting, reducing yield potential. Soybeans may gain on speculation a farm strike in Argentina will boost U.S. sales.

China is dealing with the aftermath of a devastating earthquake. Meanwhile, its economic juggernaut rumbles on ...

Yuan Gains After Central Bank Chief Says China Needs to Cut Trade Surplus The yuan traded near the highest since a dollar-peg was scrapped in 2005 after central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China needs to cut its trade surplus to prevent excess cash from stoking inflation.

China May Boost Power Capacity 40 Percent Over Three Years as Demand Rises China, the world's second-biggest energy consuming nation, may increase power-generating capacity by 40 percent in three years as demand of electricity rises.

US DOLLAR

Almighty Dolor

the dollar has had its ups and downs, but its ultimate dominance as a global currency has been in place, and taken for granted, for generations. “People have started to think, Maybe it’s not inevitable.”

Dollar Bulls Gain Control as Futures Signal High-Flying Euro Close to Peak For the first time since December 2005, futures traders are turning bullish on the dollar.

HOUSING MARKET

California Man Losing 9 Homes in Mortgage Mess

A California man who has defaulted on nine homes and expects banks to foreclose on all of them, forcing him into bankruptcy, says he now considers it a mistake to have invested in the real estate market.

Forgaard bought a house in Santa Cruz, about 60 miles (100 km) south of San Francisco, in 2000. Four years later, using $800,000 in stock options, he began snapping up investment properties, putting 10 percent to 40 percent down on negative amortization loans -- in which payments do not cover the interest so that a borrower's balance grows over time.

US ECONOMY

April retail sales barely budged

Retail sales barely rose in April, as a relentless surge in gasoline prices made consumers cut back other types of spending.


Here's a clip I just found on YouTube of George Soros, dated May 7 ...

Note that he says: "Acute phase of financial crisis largely behind us ... impact on real economy just started ... we're still in a bear market rally."



Oil surpasses $125 per barrel ahead of US driving season
Oil prices surged past $125 per barrel Friday on the eve of the U.S. driving season as a weakening U.S. dollar drove investors to snap up commodities.

And here's more news you can use ...

ENERGY

Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $125 as Nigeria Unrest Draws Speculators Oil rose to a record above $125 and was set for the biggest weekly gain in more than a year on speculation reduced exports from Nigeria will curb U.S. supplies during the peak summer driving season

Venezuela Moves Into Third Place for Oil Reserves
Venezuela added 30 billion barrels of crude oil to its proved reserves in April, bringing the total to 130 billion barrels and catapulting the country led by Hugo Chavez into the highest echelons among world producers. The addition would be enough to satisfy U.S. demand for four years.

AGRICULTURE

Corn Rallies to Record in Chicago as U.S. Sowing Delays May Cut Crop Size Corn prices jumped to a record as wet weather in the U.S. threatened to worsen planting delays and cut production in the biggest exporter, depleting stockpiles and adding to a global food crisis

Potash Contradicts UN Report, Says Supplies Tight
Potash fertilizer will be in short supply for the next five years, contrary to recent forecasts of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, the chief executive of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan said on Thursday.

Fertilizer Price Shock to Cut Farm Production (in New Zealand)

Ballance expected New Zealand farmers would use less fertiliser, affecting productivity, and the company planned to give farmers a better understanding of the global factors.

Are Pakistan's Govt Wheat Stockpiles Nearly Empty?
The local food department has started issuing permits to the flourmills to purchase wheat from the open market to ensure availability of flour in the district, as the government’s wheat godowns have run dry ... The flourmills association’s central leader Sanaullah feared a severe flour crisis in the district saying that availability of fresh wheat stocks on the market was not possible at least for the next 20 days.

Rice Gains for Sixth Day on Increased Demand, Damage From Myanmar Cyclone Rice surged for a third day by the maximum allowed as Nigeria and the Philippines, the two largest importers, sought shipments, further straining global supplies after a cyclone devastated crops in Myanmar.

CURRENCIES

Persian Gulf States May Not Form Single Currency by 2010, Stein Predicts Gulf Arab states are unlikely to form a single currency by 2010 as planned, increasing the prospect that some countries may end their currency pegs to the dollar, said Gabriel Stein, an economist at Lombard Street Research.

US ECONOMY

Trade Deficit Shrinks More Than Forecast as Imports Drop Most in Six Years The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in March as imports dropped by the most in more than six years, reflecting the economic slowdown.

Toyota Sees Hard Times Ahead in North America
Toyota's January-to-March profit sank 28% ... evidence that even mighty Toyota can't escape the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - the deadly combination of high fuel prices, surging raw material costs, the global credit crunch and a strong yen.

Citigroup Leads Wall Street Drive to Punish Taxpayers in Auction-Rate Debt Taxpayers from Massachusetts to California are paying Wall Street banks to end derivative contracts gone bad as they exit the collapsing auction-rate bond market, with penalties in some cases topping $10 million and compounding the pain of rising borrowing costs.

Here's a great story that runs along the same lines of what I wrote about in Money and Markets yesterday -- driving 55 mph to save gas.


If drivers were forced to slow down — and lower speed limits were enforced — the thirst for fuel could be significantly reduced, which could ease prices.

"We're talking about a 2-to-3 percent reduction in demand, which would mean a much larger percentage reduction in price, maybe 10 percent," Greene said.

XX And here's another, with some interesting ideas ...


More News ...


The credit crisis in western financial markets has created more opportunities for large and mid-tier gold companies to target juniors, many of whom are struggling to finance the exploration and development of their projects, Kinross Gold CEO Tye Burt said on Wednesday.


It would be hard for New Zealand to increase dairy output much more. Much available pasture already has cattle or sheep. And many farmers, having borrowed to expand, are already loaded up with debt.


Here's a great chart from the Wall Street Journal ...


Here are three charts I did yesterday for various publications. Do you think I'm a little obsessed about something? LOL!






 My latest MoneyandMarkets.com post is up. here it is ..

How to Get Cheap Gas
by Sean Brodrick
Wednesday, May 07, 2008 7:30 AM
With gasoline prices up 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks — and about 63% in the last 18 months — American drivers are feeling a pinch at the pump. Consumers are demanding that ... [More...]

XX Unfortunately -- or "fortunately," if you think I'm too long-winded -- some sections were cut out. Being a writer who is possessive and protective of his words, my first instinct is to wish my editor is fed to Satan's own chihuahuas. However, as one wag once said of Thomas Jefferson, "Like most writers, he did not think he should be edited at all. Like most writers, he was wrong."

So here are two sections that were cut out ...

Section #1 goes right after the section on bringing back the 55-mph speed limit.

Denial Isn’t Just a River in Egypt

Now I can tell you that advocating a rollback in speed limits is fightin’ words. This is a battle going on in my own house, by the way, and I’m not the one with the lead foot. I’m the one who sets the cruise control at “60.” My wife on the other hand …

But my wife has nothing on a friend of mine who lives for the sheer speed he can crank out of his sports car, and he HATES the idea of driving 55. His other ride is a Ford Excursion (15 mpg highway, 12 mpg city), and yet he rails and rants about high gasoline prices. When I tell him that his high speeds means he’s paying an extra buck a gallon, he gets even more red in the face.

There’s no arguing logic with some people. That’s why this needs to be a LAW, and not a suggestion.

Section #2 was the original ending for the section on "peer pressure."

We could also have fun with this one. I say if a vehicle doesn’t get 25 miles per gallon or better, the U.S. government gets to pick the name of that vehicle. Let’s see how many people like driving around in the “Cadillac Fatso,” “Ford Extinction” or “Chevy Junkbucket.” How’s that for peer pressure? It’s hard to brag about driving a new Junkbucket!

XX anyway, the editor won the first round, but that's what blogs are for -- so I can have final say. And trimmed down or not, I like this week's column a lot. Go read it NOW.

I made the rounds of TV talks this past week, appearing on Neal Cavuto, Glenn Beck, my local NBC affiliate and an ABC affiliate in Los Angeles. It was all about oil and gasoline prices. Here's the appearance on Cavuto ... He's a very nice guy, but I think he was a bit disappointed that I wasn't some kind of wild-eyed crazy-man calling for $10 gasoline this summer.

Used to be that one thing you could always count on in the U.S. was that grocery shelves would always be stocked with cheap food. Now it seems that more and more people are starting to think it won't always be that way ... or else they're trying anything they can to save money ...

With start of gardening season, seed suppliers see growth in demand
The last time Fedco Co-op Garden Supplies saw such a spike in demand for seeds was in 1999, when survivalists tried to buy up inventory believing that seeds would become the post-apocalyptic currency if things didn't go well on Jan, 1, 2000. ...This year's run on seeds stems from less dramatic, but still sobering, sources. Increasing prices for food and fuel have inspired more people with access to land to begin planting their own gardens in hopes of saving money, seed sellers say.

ENERGY

Oil hits record $120.93 on fear of tight supply
Oil futures rose to an all-time high near $121 a barrel Tuesday with new concerns about a threat to supply and a weaker dollar. The surge in oil prices was also fueled by hopes that the U.S. economy will be spared a sharp downturn after the release of data Monday showing an unexpected expansion in the U.S. service sector in April, analysts said.

Petrobras Moves Up Tupi Start Date, Says Deepest Fields Can Be Exploited Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, may pump oil a year earlier than expected from the Western Hemisphere's biggest find since 1976, increasing supply at a time of record prices.

Goldman's Murti Says $150 to $200 Oil Is `Likely' in Next Six to 24 Months Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report.

US ECONOMY

U.S. Home Values Drop 8%, Leaving More Borrowers `Underwater' on Mortgages U.S. home values dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter to the lowest in almost three years, according to estimates by Zillow.com, an online real estate data provider.

GE to Stop Consumer Loans on RVs
GE's consumer-finance unit plans to stop providing new loans to buy recreational vehicles and most watercraft.

XX That makes sense. In tough economic times, you'll try like hell to hold on to your house and your car, but who cares about holding on to vacation vehicles when you can't afford to take vacations?

AGRICULTURE

Western Australia May Plant Record Grain Crop After Rains, Government Says Western Australia state, the nation's largest grain-growing region, may plant a record area to crops this year driven by higher prices and after recent rain improved soil moisture, the state government said.

Thailand May Have Record Sugar Exports as Output Exceeds Government Target Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, may ship a record 5.8 million tons of the sweetener this year, as production exceeds a government target after an increase in sugarcane prices.

Corn Futures Climb in Chicago as U.S. Planting Delayed; Soybeans Advance Corn futures in Chicago climbed for the first day in three as a government report showed planting of the U.S. crop remained behind the pace of recent years after excessive rains, threatening yields. Soybeans also rose.

ASIA

China Economy Growth Likely to Rebound This Quarter, State Economists Say China's economic growth will rebound to 10.8 percent this quarter as local governments and companies rebuild after the worst blizzards in 50 years in January and February, state economists forecast.

Oil and natural gas faked us out last week by selling off as the U.S. dollar rallied. But the dollar is rallying on an outlook for stronger economic activity in the U.S.  The Labor Department reported on Friday that U.S. employers only shed 20,000 jobs, a lot less than expected.  And a stronger economy points to stronger demand for oil and natural gas.

Now, personally, I think that jobs number is more cooked than Emeril Lagasse’s kitchen.  But psychology rules this market, and the less-bad jobs number, combined with some other news like an unexpected expansion in the US services sector,is really making investors feel bullish about the economy. 

Shorter-term, oil also might be driven higher by supply concerns. In March, global oil supply fell by 100,000 barrels per day, led by lower supplies last month from OPEC, the North Sea and non-OPEC Africa.

Then on Friday, oil soared after Turkish airstrikes on Kurdish rebel bases in Iraq.  The civil war in Nigeria (they don’t call it a civil war, but the fighting seems constant) seems to be worsening, and another oil facility has been attacked.  Rebels hit a flow station belonging to Shell's joint venture in southern Nigeria and that some oil production shut down.

In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Sunday that his country will not bend to international pressure and give up its nuclear program.  This raises the chances of a U.S. or Israeli air strike against Iran, the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

And demand overseas is rising.  According to the International Energy Agency – which is lousy at predicting future demand, but very good at tracking existing demand -- China’s demand rose by 7.8% in February from a year earlier, much higher than earlier estimates of a 5.3% gain. Gasoline demand rose by 22.8%!According to preliminary data from India, oil product sales – a proxy of demand – surged by 10.9% in February compared to a year earlier.  That’s the fastest pace of growth in demand since 2006.  Transportation fuels – gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene, and gasoil – jumped by 13.4% year on year. 

Recently, we are seeing small, incremental drops in demand in Europe and the U.S. But the booming demand from Asia should more than make up for that.


Phil and I talk a load of fertilizer in this week's interview on HoweStreet.com.

http://tinyurl.com/3mq4pw

Along with fertilizer, we also cover oil, gold ... the usual suspects.

 Gasoline could hit $7 a gallon in four years: CIBC
Crude predicted to top $200 by 2012 on tight supplies, pushing gas higher
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Surging crude prices, which could surpass $200 a barrel in four years on tight supplies, could push gasoline prices to as high as $7 a gallon, CIBC World Markets analysts said Thursday.

XX Of course this is no surprise to you, since you read my Money and Markets Column a few weeks ago, as well as numerous other places where I've been saying the same thing.

Speaking of which, I had a new Money and Markets column yesterday, but was so busy I didn't have time to link to it. Here you go ...

Seven Looming Crises: How to Protect Your Portfolio
by Sean Brodrick
Wednesday, April 30, 2008 7:30 AM
Many of the investment trends I talk about tend to play out over an extended period of time — for example, the long-term price gains in food and energy. But I see at least seven different crises that could ... [More...]

In other news, it's just my opinion, but I believe Mazda is run by the stupidest frakking people on the planet ...

How to Destroy Brand-New Cars
Auto makers usually try to find the best way to build new vehicles. These days, Mazda Motor Corp. is busy figuring out how to most efficiently destroy them.
It all started about two years ago, when a ship carrying 4,703 shiny new Mazdas nearly sank in the Pacific. The freighter, the Cougar Ace, spent weeks bobbing on the high seas, listing at a severe 60-degree angle, before finally being righted.
The mishap created a dilemma: What to do with the cars? They had remained safely strapped down throughout the ordeal -- but no one knew for sure what damage, if any, might be caused by dangling cars at such a steep angle for so long.
The Japanese car maker, controlled by Ford, easily could have found takers for the vehicles. Hundreds of people called about buying cheap Mazdas. Schools wanted them for auto-shop courses. Hollywood asked about using them for stunts.
Mazda turned everyone away. It worried about getting sued someday if, say, an air-bag failed to fire properly due to overexposure to salty sea air.
Mazda saw no easy way to guard against these outcomes. So it decided to destroy approximately $100 million worth of factory-new automobiles. "We couldn't run the risk of damaging the brand name that Mazda worked so hard over the years to develop," says Jeremy Barnes, the company's corporate-affairs director for North America.
XX My guess is the name "Mazda" is now going to be associated with corporate stupidity and senseless waste.

Interesting story in the New York Times yesterday ...

Shortages Threaten Farmers’ Key Tool: Fertilizer
Some kinds of fertilizer have nearly tripled in price in the last year, keeping farmers from buying all they need. That is one of many factors contributing to a rise in food prices that, according to the United Nations’ World Food Program, threatens to push tens of millions of
poor people into malnutrition.

And this comes later in the story:
Fertilizer companies are confident the shortage will be solved eventually, noting that they plan to build scores of new factories.

Well, Red-Hot Canadian Small-Caps subscribers know of a fertilizer company that is building new factories. It has pricing power -- just negotiated a big hike with its customers -- and it serves the fastest growing fertilizer market in the world, China.

Worldwide growth in Fertilizer Use
Click on the map for a larger image.

The whole story in the New York Times is worth reading. To do that, CLICK HERE.

I could buy an electric car if I wanted to now. A new electric car dealership opened in my home town last week ...

ZAP Electric Car, Truck Arrive in Florida
Xebra, an electric four-door compact car or two-seat pickup that transforms into a flat-bed or a dump truck. The vehicle was designed for gas-free, city driving up to 40 MPH and plugs into any normal household outlet. The vehicles are priced a little over $11,000 and are estimated to cost between one and three cents per mile.

However, that speed limit is likely to get me killed on South Florida's busy roads. Alternately, I could buy a Prius and convert it to plug-in electric. However, the conversion kit costs $9,999. That's too much coin for me.

So my choices now are between "not enough oomph" and "too expensive." I think I'll be better off waiting until next year ... when the real bargains arrive. I'm talking about low-cost, factory-line-produced electric runabouts that you plug into your house socket at night and drive all day. It's called the TH!NK City.

The manufacturer says the "City" reaches a top speed of 100 km (65 miles) per hour and can drive up to 180 km (110 miles) on a single charge.

At current prices, you should be able to run that car for about 3 cents a mile, and no expensive tune-ups, either.

And new battery technology (and here's another one) that is coming next year could really extend the City's range, though naturally it would raise the price of the car.

For now, maybe I'll just buy an electric bicycle. That sounds cool, too. But not cheap -- Electric bikes range in price from $2,100 to $2,900 and have a top speed of about 20 miles per hour -- maybe less when hauling my big American ass around.