How long does the China economic miracle have to go? I
have said 10 years at the minimum, but even that optimistic view could be too low.
Justin Lin Yifu, head of Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research and chief economist of the World Bank, was quoted in
the May issue of the Harvard Business Review that he expects the Chinese economy to be 2 1/2 times the size of the U.S.
economy by 2030.
“I believe China’s economic momentum is very likely to
maintain a similar growth rate of the past 25 years, at about 8 percent.”
He bases that upon the assertion that China’s position in 2000 is very similar to Japan in 1960.
Once Japan took off, it managed to grow at a high speed for almost 30 years.
You better have some China in your portfolio or you’re
missing out on the stock market opportunity of our lifetimes.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Mr. Sagami: In early 70s, I worked in Indonesia’s logging sector. At that time, all the logs produced were sold to Japan ONLY. China just cannot replicate the Japanese experience as the RESOURCE CONSTRAINT will prevent a repeat
performance by the Chinese economy in the first 20 years of this 21st century. The Japanese population then was about 70 million. Now we are talking about 1.2 BILLION Chinese. NO WAY.
Dreamlander,
No way? China already passed the US as the largest car market in the first quarter 2009. Resources constraint is not a problem for China, but for the world, or at least for small countries. Maybe reources constraint means US occupy Iraq for oil, really? Then what? World war III? You kidding me. No. You fool yourself.
Face the reality. Changing your life style by adopt eco-friendly technologies, we can live good together.