Key News

 

* Fitch: U.K. Most at Risk of AAA Downgrade (WSJ)

* Europe’s industry slams China over currency (WSJ)

* IEA Cuts 2030 Oil Demand Forecast on Economy, Climate Policy (Bloomberg)

* Brussels to rebuke Greece over budget deficit (FT)

 

 

The Event Agenda

Morning Run-Down

 

With the central bank events of last week behind us, the markets jumped back on the “risk taking” theme. 

 

Yesterday, the dollar was under pressure from an IMF report over the weekend.  The IMF said within the report that the dollar was “on the strong side.”  It also said the euro was “on the strong side” and that emerging market currency strength was causing problems.  It later made a direct statement about the undervalued yuan in China, which was the purpose of its statement on currencies.  Nonetheless, the markets don’t need much of an excuse to sell dollars, and so they did. 

 

Yesterday’s selling pressure in the dollar left key currencies testing critical lows/highs of this risk rally.  The euro neared its post March highs of 1.5063, the dollar index is sitting on the post March lows, and some key emerging market currencies are testing highs against the dollar…Brazil  Korea, Thailand…  These levels are important to watch.  So far, they have held and the dollar is trading on firmer footing today.

 

Some key developments over night…

 

Fitch says the country most at risk of a downgrade from AAA is the UK.  The pound has been under pressure since, following the unexplainable strength over the past month.  Overall the data has been heavily pound negative relative to almost every currency.  The UK economy surprisingly shrank last quarter and the BOE is, again, expanding its asset purchase program—big growth and policy differentials, yet the pound has experienced some recent strength.

 

There are a slew of Fed speakers coming up… 

 

Here’s a look at the charts…

 

Key Charts

 

The S&P 500 continues to be contained by the downtrend from October of 2007 highs, though the breakdown of the uptrend from March (the red line) failed yesterday, with prices reversing back toward highs for the year.

The euro 1.5063 prior high is critical for the risk trade.  A breakout would likely coincide with a breakout in stocks. 

The unemployment rate from Friday reached levels not seen since 1983…Will unemployment at 10% mean the same to consumer confidence as $4 gas?  Gas prices reached $4 in June of 2008.  As a result, consumer confidence printed its lowest level since 1980.  With a bounce back in confidence to 70, look for the number on Friday to disappoint…

The VIX (the fear gauge) after spiking to post Lehman levels has settled back quickly … A sign that conviction is light, but complacency is dangerously heavy.

 

 

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Key News

 

* U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending, Confidence Fall on Job Worries  (Bloomberg)

* U.K. Nationwide House Prices Post First Annual Gain Since 2008  (Bloomberg)

* China Will Sustain Growth Rebound, Central Bank Says  (Bloomberg)

* Fed Ends Treasury Buys That Capped Rates, Stabilized Housing  (Bloomberg)

 

The Event Agenda

Morning Run-Down

 

The Pavlovians that have systematically bought the dip and been immediately rewarded over past months are in for some punishment.  Yesterday’s aggressive retracement following a fairly meaningless GDP report likely got them even more aggressive and convicted–  perhaps even more inclined to keep adding into stock market weakness.

 

But the trends have broken and the risk environment has changed.  All of the sudden people fell less comfortable about the state of the world, more concerned about sustainability of growth. 

 

The VIX, a proxy for traders’ perception of risk and uncertainty, is up 54% in six days.  The VIX is the one place that offered the best risk/reward opportunity for a double.  Market participants clearly were underpricing risk as every tick higher in stocks translated into more optimism about recovery and a lower moving VIX.

 

A falling stock market can quickly dismiss blind optimism and bring the reality of the challenges to global economies back into focus.  That means higher risk aversion, lower stocks, lower commodities and a stronger dollar.

 

Here is a snapshot of markets going into the close…

 

 

Stocks (lines 1-3) followed the biggest rally since July with the biggest sell-off since July.  Crude oil (line 4) fully retraced yesterday’s strength, now 6% off of last week’s highs.  Commodity currencies and yen crosses were the biggest currency movers of the day, reflective of global demand concerns and rising risk.

 

Here’s a look at some long term charts for perspective on the crisis-driven declines and the extent of retracements over the past eight months…

  

 

Key Charts

 

The S&P 500 dropped 58% from its highs in 2007 to its low in 2008.  Even following a 65% rise from the bottom, stocks remain in a long term downtrend. 

The New Zealand dollar contracted at a sharper rate than the US economy and is expected to have a weaker recovery in 2010, yet the New Zealand dollar retraced 83% of its crisis driven losses in just eight months.  Look out below.

Though commodities have had a shallow bounce off of the bottom, global demand remains massively depressed.

The VIX (the fear gauge) settled in to pre-Lehman levels and is now surging higher.

 

 

 

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Key News

 

* Norway Set to Be First European Country to Raise Rates Tomorrow (Bloomberg)

* ECB reveals first fall in household loans (Bloomberg)

* Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Decreases  (Bloomberg)

* South Korean Economy Expands (WSJ)

 

The Event Agenda

Afternoon Run-Down

 

The broader stock market is continuing the weakness from last Friday and that’s carrying over to other asset classes, global stocks and emerging market currencies.  The disconnect between the rise in asset prices and economic fundamentals become a focus when stocks point south.  The weak consumer confidence and disappointing Richmond Fed data this morning were more fuel for an already shaky risk environment.  The descending trendline in the S&P 500 that describes the entire decline from the October 2007 highs has so far contained an exhaustive (and exhausting) 8-month rally in risk assets (see the chart below).

 

After a few days of uncharacteristic downdrafts in stocks a couple of conveniently timed bearish pieces made the rounds this morning.  Bill Gross of Pimco is calling a top in the risk trade in his monthly letter.  Gross points out the obvious circular feeding frenzy of the past eight months that has driven asset prices:  Hope and optimism have fed into higher stock prices … higher stock prices have fed into more hope and optimism … which has, in turn, fed even higher prices. 

 

Here are a couple of interesting excerpts…

 

He says… “Asset prices are embedded not only in our psyche, but the actual growth rate of our economy. If they don’t go up – economies don’t do well, and when they go down, the economy can be horrid.”

 

The Fed is trying to  …“keep the capitalistic patient alive through asset price support”

 

And for those that have been on the risky asset joy- ride…“ the risks outweigh the rewards at this point.”

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets tomorrow to set rates.  They are expected to keep rates at 2.5%.  Because Australia made a first post-crisis rate hike last month, speculation has been stirring around New Zealand’s rate prospects.  But a closer examination of the RNBZ’s statement last month sheds a fairly clear light on the central banks cautious position.

 

“the Bank took a number of steps to

enhance its liquidity facilities to improve credit flows, and

most recently, communicated its expectation that the

OCR will be kept at or below the current level through

until the latter part of 2010. These two measures are

aimed at helping the transmission of the lower OCR to

the interest rates faced by households and businesses”

 

With yesterday’s move higher in the dollar, lower in stocks, lower in crude oil, the contra-risk trade day finally got market participants concerned about complacency.  Implied volatilities (a good measure of market uncertainty) started rising in stocks and currencies.  

 

Here’s a look at some interesting charts…

 

 

Key Charts

 

The dollar index breached an eight month descending trend line today…

 

 

I showed this chart of the euro on Friday and pointed to the significance of the $1.50 level.  The first attempts at $1.50 starting back in 2007 failed three times until finally charging through in early 2008 to ultimately reach $1.60.  And now, $1.50 has proven again a difficult objective.  The euro posted a bearish daily reversal signal yesterday.

The S&P 500 has run into big trendline resistance of the entire move down from the 2007 highs.  Now, trendline support of the 65% move off of the March lows is testing.  A break here and a sharp slide would be a quick sentiment deflator … i.e. risk aversion round 2.

If the S&P breaks down expect the Canadian dollar to take a equally if not more aggressive hit…

 

 

Could these charts spell the next phase of a broader-longer term global instability/risk aversion theme?

 

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Key News

 

* U.K. Economy Shrinks (WSJ)

* September Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Jump More Than Forecast  (Bloomberg)

* Bernanke Says Financial Firms Should Pay for Closings (Bloomberg)

* Eurozone economic activity surges (FT)

The Event Agenda

Morning Run-Down

 

Third quarter GDP out of the UK shocked the market this morning.  The market expectations were for growth of 0.2% for the third quarter, yet the number showed contraction of 0.4%.  That makes six consecutive quarters of economic decline. 

 

The pound plunged over 350 points.  The UK story has been volatile.  It’s been a yo-yo of optimism and pessimism.  Before this morning’s GDP number optimism had taken hold for the last nine trading days taking the pound 6% higher.  With a higher pound came growing support for the recovery scenario and a new confidence that the quantitative easing was taking hold. 

But the fact remains the UK economy is underperforming all major economies right now.  The quantitative easing program is larger than the U.S. as a percent of GDP and it’s looking probable that it will be expanded again.  That’s all bad news for the pound. 

 

There’s daily speculation and prodding by the media for clues on when major central banks will begin reversing the easy money conditions.  Yet prices are continuing to fall in most of the top developed countries, demand remains depressed and economies have a ton of excess capacity…all reasons the interest rate market is showing no signs of inflation concerns.  Plus central banks have made clear that rates will remain low for some time, but that is apparently not good enough for the drama appetite of the financial journalist community.

 

The FT ran an article today implying that Fed officials were mulling over ways to change the language in their next statement to soften the message that rates would remain low “for an extended period of time.”  That gave interest rates and the dollar a little nudge today.

 

Overall, stocks and crude oil are off more than 1% today.  The dollar is nicely higher and the pound is the biggest currency mover of the day.

 

Downside in stocks will get dollar bears nervous.  It’s a question of how much downside is necessary before they run for the exits.  For those that fear the dollar is in crisis, the implied volatility in currencies (where uncertainty is expressed) has been in a slow decline back to pre-Lehman levels.  Ho-hum.  And traders are buying protection against a reversal in the dollar at increasing rates.  Neither of these are signs of any panic or crisis in a currency.

 

Where concern is more properly placed is for those fragile economies trying to work their way out of recession with a strong currency.  It’s bad for the all important exports and that’s why the fuss is intensifying…

 

Ø  The Bank of Canada released its minutes this week and said that the strength of the Canadian dollar is offsetting recovery.  The BOC governor also said the intervention is always an option. 

 

Ø  The Eurozone finance ministers met this week and reiterated the ill effects of excessive currency volatility.

 

Ø  Central banks in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong all intervened to curb currency strength.

 

Ø  And Brazil slapped a 2% tax on foreign investment to help curb the rise in its currency and asset markets. 

 

Growing protectionist measures are a danger for the global recovery.  It creates retaliatory responses which further crushes an already weak global demand.  This growing contentious behavior is not being priced into the risk-loving, “world returning to normal” theory.

 

Here’s a look at the charts going into the weekend…

 

Key Charts

 

The pound collapsed following the GDP disappointment.  It rallied from 1.5708 to 1.6693 over nine days and gave back 387 points today…

The euro made its biggest move against the pound today since February, which kept the euro/dollar exchange rate stable most of the day around the 1.50, as traders bought euros against pounds.  The euro/dollar hovers at the 1.50 area, a level that proved very difficult to breach the first time around (left area of the chart).

Commodities have been staging a move higher since the early October but remain well off historic highs, and well contained.

The S&P 500 had a slippery end of day sell off on Wednesday and wasn’t able to regain those levels.  Stocks are running into big trendline resistance of the entire move down from the 2007 highs.  This area should be resilient and should put the staying power of global risk appetite to the test…

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Key News

 

* Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as Banks Shift Reserves (Bloomberg)

* Iceland Shrinks 8% as Prices Increase 11% in Deepest Recession (Bloomberg)

* Goldman’s O’Neill Says Crisis Fiscal Costs Are Exaggerated (Bloomberg)

* China to Seek WTO Ruling in EU Dispute, Official Says (Bloomberg)

 

The Event Agenda

Morning Run-Down

 

Last week the theme in currency markets continued to be centered around gold as a currency play.  The moves in gold have been a speculators bet that central banks and world investors will leave the dollar because of the inflation effects of the emergency policy decisions that have been in enacted by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve.

 

The problem with the bet for gold and against the dollar is that there have been no signs of inflation.  Consumer prices continue to fall.  That’s De-flation.  Asset prices like crude oil, stocks, commodities, real estate….all remain far from pre-crisis levels.  When I say far, I mean 30%, 40% … 50% below pre-crisis levels.  So there are no signs of inflation despite the Fed’s expansion of the money supply. 

 

And this is precisely why the interest rate market is not taking part in the buy gold/sell dollars inflation fear trade. 

 

That being said, U.S. interest rates rose a bit on Friday (yields higher) after Thursday’s speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke on the Fed Balance Sheet.   The dollar responded by moving higher (not lower) on the prospects for higher yields.  Did Bernanke say anything newsworthy?  Not really.  It was more reiteration of the available tools at the Fed’s disposal to remove the monetary stimulus when the time is right.  The latter part of that sentence was irresponsibly omitted in some early news reports on Thursday and that got the markets moving a bit.   In fact Bloomberg ran an article that said “Fed ready to tighten”…they later pulled it.

 

The trend of recent days in currencies has been to buy commodity currencies and sell those currencies with exposure to more aggressive quantitative easing programs.  As a result the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar have been strong and the British pound, the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen have been weaker.

 

 

Key Charts

 

For the inflation theorists…there is no inflation.  Inflation comes with sufficient demand.  And so far demand remains heavily depressed.  The massive excess capacity in the system shows the economy has a lot of demand to absorb before price pressures pick up…

 

 

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Key News

 

* Fujii May ‘Take Action’ on Yen (Bloomberg)

* RBA likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 3pc (The Australian)

* G7 Fallout Leaves USD Southbound, Euro In Limbo  (WSJ)

* Trichet, Lagarde Push China to Let Currency Gain Against Euro (Reuters)

 

The Event Agenda

Morning Run-Down

Though all G-7 members have individually expressed concern about currency strength (and relative weakness of the U.S. dollar), the communiqué did not reflect any changes in the group’s official position on currencies.  

 

The communiqué did include note of the pledges by the G-20…

 

1)      Coordinated exits,

2)      Regulation,

3)      And a framework for strong, sustainable, and balanced growth.

 

Its comments on exchange rates were identical to its April statement …

 

“Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.”

 

And this statement on China remained identical to the April statement….

 

”We welcome China’s continued commitment to move to a more flexible exchange rate, which should lead to continued appreciation of the Renminbi in effective terms and help promote more balanced growth in China and in the world economy.”

 

The pledge to balance economies to achieve more sustainable growth is strongly directed toward China.  After allowing its currency to appreciate about 6% annually for three years, China has returned to an effective peg to keep its currency weak in the crisis environment.  A stronger currency in China would slow its exports, forcing the development of more domestic led growth.  But the market doesn’t expect that to happen anytime soon (see the chart below).

 

Japan’s Finance Minister has done a 180 over the course of a few weeks.  His initial position that a strong yen could be good for the Japanese economy has now flipped and aggressively in the opposite direction.  Following the G-7 meeting, the Japanese FinMin has threatened to take action if the yen moves in a “biased direction.”

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to set interest rates tonight.  Though economists think there is a slim chance that the central bank will make its first move away from “emergency” monetary stimulus, the market has increasingly upped its bet that the RBA will act…pricing in a 58% chance of a ¼ point rate hike.  That would make Australia the first major economy to begin a move higher in interest rates.  The Aussie dollar has rallied this morning on that speculation.  The Aussie dollar has already climbed 41% higher on expectations that Australia would be an early (if not the first) mover on rates.  A November hike remains more likely.

 

The Bank of England and European Central Bank both meet later this week to set interest rates.  Both central banks will leave rates unchanged, but the decisions on the unconventional measures will be the areas to watch.  The ECB will likely continue to offer unlimited one-year loans to European banks (currently at 1%)…. a program that has already pumped over $1 trillion into financial institutions.  And the BOE should be watched closely for consideration of cutting interest paid on bank deposits.  The BOE’s tendency is toward more accommodation, which would be negative for the pound.

 

Key Charts

 

While the ISM Non Manufacturing Index returned to growth in Sept., the price index plunged…

China has effectively gone back to the peg since the beginning of the global financial crisis.  The below chart shows the government manipulated exchange rate of USD/CNY (red line) versus the market’s expectations for the exchange rate in 12-months (blue line).  You can see that the market has gone from pricing in sizable appreciation of the Yuan until early 2008 … to pricing in depreciation when the crisis was at the peak in late 2008.   Now the market is pricing in virtually no change over the next twelve months (just 2% appreciation).  That means, market participants don’t expect China to play ball with the G-20 rebalancing theme…

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Key News

 

* EU Says Bank Losses Could Be 400 Billion Euros in Deeper Slump (Bloomberg)

* Banks With 20% Unpaid Loans at 18-Year High Amid Recovery Doubt (Bloomberg)

* U.S. Economy: Job Losses Exceed Forecast, Imperiling Recovery  (Bloomberg)

* European officials applaud US strong dollar stance (Reuters)

 

The Event Agenda

Afternoon Run-Down

 

I pointed out the key reversal (outside day) in stocks last week following a more cautious and dovish Fed statement.  And that, so far, has marked a top.  Stocks have continued to roll over.  Following cues from the slippery slide in stocks yesterday, the dollar rallied nicely producing a bearish outside range in the Australian dollar—the currency markets favorite vehicle of risk taking. 

 

Comments on strong global currencies and the weakness of the dollar have become more frequent and more direct.  That, and a falling stock market, laid the groundwork for a stronger dollar and weaker risk environment going into this morning’s unemployment data.  Because it’s widely expected that unemployment is going to be high well into to 2010, this data should have been inconsequential and the market response proved just that.  After weaker employment data, the markets made sharp rebounds from the weakness yesterday and overnight—led by a strong surge in the euro.

 

But going into the close, the euro is only up small for the day and finished the week down ¾ of a percent.  For those that believe the rally in stocks and sell off in the dollar this morning was a dollar/inflation story, the treasury continues to lack confirmation for that theme.  Ten year treasuries finished up a full point for the week—yields lower. 

 

The G-7 meets this weekend.  Currencies are going to be a topic discussed, according to the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner.   

 

Even though the G-20 made a statement that the torch of power has been passed, with growing chatter of discontent with strong currencies, I wouldn’t want to go home short dollars.

 

Here’s my screenshot going into the close…

 

Key Charts

 

We’ve now had 21 consecutive months of job losses…

Very nice technical reversal signal (outside range) in the Australian dollar after a 41% march higher in seven months.  Even following the sharp rebound in currencies this morning, the Aussie remained weak finishing the biggest loser in currencies…

For an indication on the size of the short dollar position, the market has one of the biggest Swiss franc long positions in seventeen years.  The last time the market was overly long, the Swiss franc reversed… falling 17% against the dollar over the next 12 months…

The IMF released data on the composition of second quarter global foreign exchange reserves.  The dollar’s share fell to 62.8%, slightly below its share this time last year.

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Key News

 

* Pound Declines as G-20 Agrees on Bank Pay, Tighter Regulations (Bloomberg)

* Yen Strengthens on Speculation Japanese Companies Are Repatriating … (Bloomberg)

* Fed’s Strategy Reduces US Bailout Pledges to $11.6 Trillion (Bloomberg)

* New world economic order takes shape at G20 (Reuters)

 

The Event Agenda

Afternoon Run-Down

 

The Fed got the markets moving this week.  Was it anything in particular said by the Fed?  Well the key thing I took away from the message was that the Fed is no longer suggesting that its current policies will manufacture the “resumption of sustainable growth.”  Of course, they extended the timeline for the asset purchase program, which means they won’t be cutting it short—bad for the interest rate hawks.  But I think this statement is layered with caution and means the Fed thinks a double dip is coming.

 

The markets have since been reversing the recent “buy stocks, buy gold, sell the dollar” daily mandate.  But as is typical in major market turning points, sometimes price becomes the catalyst.  And after price moves comes the slew of logic to confirm the move. 

 

While the dollar bears have been pontificating the destruction of the dollar and grand conspiracy schemes out of the G-20 to kill the dollar, not surprisingly it hasn’t happened.  The dollar has aggressively bounced, gold has dropped sharply back below $1,000 and stocks have finally printed negative closes (three consecutive to be precise).  

 

Anyone holding stocks at these levels, gold at these levels and short the dollar at this level cannot feel comfortable.  And a little more steam in this move will begin to squeeze weak hands out of these trades quickly, because the penalty for being wrong in those trades could and likely will be severe.

 

A stronger dollar has only exacerbated the fall in the pound.  Last week while most currencies were rising against the dollar, the pound fell 2%.  This week, the pound was even weaker.  The negative news out of the UK continues to pile up against the pound.  Yesterday the Telegraph reported that the BOE called an emergency meeting of London economists next week to address a failing Quantitative Easing program.  That got the pound moving below key support levels and the resilient weakness in the pound has been the cue to sell other currencies against the dollar. 

 

The risky asset trade closes the week looking vulnerable.  Here’s a look at some key charts…

 

Key Charts

The S&P 500 sharply reversed on Wednesday after a knee jerk jump following the Fed statement.  The market put in a key reversal signal (an outside day) and has since followed with a 3.5% slide in three days.

 

Gold has slid quickly back below $1,000.  The past two experiences at the $1,000 level were short lived…

Remember, the market is way long of gold.  I showed this chart ealier in the week. Here’s a look at the record long market position (white line) relative to the price of spot gold (orange line)…

The pound is down 5% in two weeks and closes on its lows. 

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Key News

 

* Fed Effort to Stoke Growth May Be Undermined by ‘Tight’ Credit (Bloomberg)

* ADB China Chief Cautions Downside Risks To China’s Growth (WSJ)

* Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days on Dollar, China Imports  (Bloomberg)

* China set to swing from trade surplus to trade deficit (MarketWatch)

G20 ‘to call for economy balance’ (BBC)

 

The Event Agenda

The Morning Run

 

After a strong bounce in the dollar yesterday, the pro risk taking environment is in full force today.  The dollar is very heavy, commodities and stocks are rallying.  The New Zealand dollar has broken-out to new 12-month highs and the euro sits just shy of the Sept 22, 2008 highs.

 

After a peak below $1,000 an ounce yesterday, gold has bounced aggressively today.  But with the strength in gold and weakness in the dollar, treasuries continue to chop around giving no interest rate confirmation to the inflation-theme.   If the dollar is being sold and gold is being bought to express perceived inflationary and currency debasing policies of the U.S. government then rates should be rising.  But that’s not the case.

 

The G-20 agenda is continuing its theme of coordination.  And now it will allegedly tackle global imbalances in coordination in effort to rebuild a global economy that is more sustainable.  That would mean China has to learn how to consume and the U.S. has to learn how to produce again—a necessary and long road of rebuilding, but a road that has been avoided to this point by policy makers to this point in favor of band-aids. 

 

There are a lot of moving parts in the markets this morning.  There is mixed news out of China overnight.  Two key negatives from an Asian Development Bank report:

 

1)   They warned about downside risks to China’s growth,

  

2)   And they acknowledged that China’s stimulus package and liquidity spigot has done nothing to help move the economy away from its dependency on exports. 

 

But the report also bumped up growth estimates for Asia (ex-Japan) for 2009 and 2010.   Chinese stocks finished 2.3% lower but the growth upgrade for Asia fueled positive sentiment for the resilient rally in risky assets.

 

Since September has opened, gold has been a trade the represents the fear of central bank diversification away from those countries that have been most involved in quantitative easing:  the U.S., the U.K. and Japan. 

 

Recently the pound has been the weakest of all major currencies.  Bank of England’s quarterly report yesterday suggested that the long run sustainable exchange rate may have fallen due to the country’s economic imbalances.  Further weighing on the pound is the news last week that the BOE is considering cutting the interest rate on bank reserves to get banks lending.  The BOE minutes tomorrow will be important to watch discussion on this topic.

 

Other key events this week…the FOMC tomorrow, the RBA Financial Stability report tomorrow night, the BOJ minutes Thursday night, and G-20 into the end of the week.

 

Key Charts

EUR/GBP has become the conviction trade at bank research desks, calling for parity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The dollar index is sitting on the lows of the 15% move down from March highs.  All-time lows are another 7% lower.

I showed this record high long gold position on Friday (white line).  Here’s a look at the market position relative to the price of spot gold (orange line)…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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