Bryan Rich - Advising clients and trading in the currencies arena.

Morning Run…June 8, 2009

by Bryan Rich on June 9, 2009

in General

Key News

 

*Stress-Tested banks raise $75 billion in capital (Washington Post)

* UK Housing Market Shows Signs of ‘Stabilizing,’ RICS Says (Bloomberg)

*Euro-Zone Banks Need Recovery Plan, IMF Says  (WSJ)

*Blanchflower Says BOE May Expand U.K. Money-Printing (Bloomberg)

 

The Event Agenda

 

 

data june 8 Morning Run...June 8, 2009

 

The Morning Run-Down

 

After four days of strength, the dollar is giving back a little ground this morning.  There are a few perceived bright spots in the data today and some gloom.  Japan’s leading index has now had two consecutive months of upticks, albeit very minor and still hovering around the lows of a massive plunge.  Nonetheless, the yen is a bit stronger today as a result, finding some relief after a 5% decline (vs. the dollar) in the last six days.   

 

UK house prices also showed continued signs of improvement.  But the political situation in the UK is still fragile after a weekend election to showed a collapse in support for the ruling Labour Party.    

 

And data in Germany looks like a good proxy for what lies ahead.  Glimpses of improvement can quickly be reversed.  See the below charts.

 

Key Charts

 

Export numbers have been abysmal for Germany, the largest exporter in the world.  Today those numbers disappointed again.  For the first four months of the year compared with the same period last year, exports have fallen 28.7%. 

 

export june 8 Morning Run...June 8, 2009

 

Industrial production disappointed as well.  After a small blip up, activity has plunged to a new low, down 21.6%.  This chart goes back to 1992.

 

ip june 8 Morning Run...June 8, 2009

 

The factory order plunge printed worse numbers for six consecutive months until a slight improvement in March.  The April number suggests the continued deterioration is still intact. 

fact or june 8 Morning Run...June 8, 2009


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