Mike Larson - Weiss Research expert on housing, interest rates, mortgages, and consumer finance.

From the category archives:

Debt

We just got our latest look at existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors. Sales rose 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from 4.9 million a month earlier. That topped expectations for a reading of 4.8 million. We saw strength in most of the country, with sales [...]

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The Mortgage Bankers Association just released figures on Q4 2009 home loan performance. What did the numbers show?
* The overall mortgage delinquency rate fell to 9.47% in Q4 2009 from 9.64% in Q3 2009. That’s the first quarter-over-quarter decline in delinquencies since Q1 2007. Of particular note: The percentage of loans 30 days behind on [...]

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Nasty Treasury auctions

by Mike Larson on February 11, 2010

in Debt, Economy, Interest Rate News

Investors are increasingly reluctant to step up and buy long-term Treasuries. The proof is in the results from yesterday’s sale of $25 billion in 10-year notes and today’s sale of $16 billion in 30-year bonds.
 
Today, the bonds were sold at a yield of 4.72%, versus pre-auction talk of 4.687%. The bid-to-cover ratio was just 2.36, compared [...]

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Earlier this morning, I published a piece predicting that the Fed under “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke won’t tighten rates until the cows come home.Today’s jobs report only underscores my certainty in this matter.
The currency and bond markets are getting the message loud and clear, with breakouts, breakdowns, and crazy activity visible all over the place. A [...]

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30-year bond auction stinks up the joint

by Mike Larson on December 10, 2009

in Debt, Economy, Interest Rate News

Readers, you should be aware that the 30-year Treasury Bond auction today stunk up the joint. $13 billion in 30s were auctioned off at yield of 4.52%, 4 basis points worse than pre-auction talk.
 
Despite the recent rise in yields, demand was relatively punk, too — with indirect bidding falling to 40.2% from 44% in the prior month’s auction. [...]

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The latest Beige Book report on the state of the economy was just released by the Fed. The summary suggests we’re seeing more stability and/or gradual improvement in the economy:
“Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic conditions have generally improved modestly since the last report. Eight Districts indicated some pickup in activity [...]

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The Mortgage Bankers Association’s figures on home loan performance just keep getting worse and worse. Here is what things looked like in Q3 2009:
* The overall mortgage delinquency rate surged to 9.64% in Q3 2009 from 9.24% in Q2 2009 and 6.99% a year earlier. Once again, this is a fresh record high for the [...]

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There’s a lot of chatter on the dollar front today. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told a group of Japanese reporters that he “believe[s] deeply that it’s very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar.”
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum is also up in arms about the [...]

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Okay, so that’s not the headline you’re going to read on the wires. But really, his speech at the Conference on Asia and the Global Financial Crisis in Santa Barbara, California is very academic. It’s focused on longer-term trade and growth issues, and frankly, I don’t see any explicit or implicit comments directed at the [...]

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You have to love it: The just released Fed minutes from the September 22-23 meeting are looking unbelievably dovish. Some Fed members were reportedly even open to INCREASING the size of MBS purchases. This from a Fed whose quantitative easing policies are driving the dollar into the crapper. Seriously? Meanwhile, the Fed minutes note that [...]

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