Mike Larson - Weiss Research expert on housing, interest rates, mortgages, and consumer finance.

From the monthly archives:

August 2009

July income 0%, spending +0.2%

by Mike Larson on August 28, 2009

in Consumer Credit News, Economy

The July personal income and spending figures just hit the tape and they were roughly in line with expectations. Specifically, personal income was unchanged against a forecast of +0.1%. But the June decline was revised from -1.3% to -1.1%. Personal spending rose 0.2%, right in line with forecasts, and the June number was revised higher [...]

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7-year note auction goes pretty well

by Mike Larson on August 27, 2009

in Debt, Economy, Interest Rate News

Somewhat surprisingly, the auction of $28 billion 7-year Treasury Notes went pretty well. The notes were sold at a yield of 3.092%, compared with pre-auction talk of 3.124%. Some 61.2% of the notes went to indirect bidders, while the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.74. That compares with 62.5% and 2.63 at the last sale [...]

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The Treasury just unloaded $39 billion in 5-year Treasury Notes, tying a record for the largest such auction ever. How’d things go? The notes were sold at a yield of 2.494%. That was ever-so-slightly better than the 2.509% yield the market was expecting, according to Bloomberg.
Indirect bidders bought 56.4% of the notes sold, while the [...]

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New home sales surge 9.6% in July

by Mike Larson on August 26, 2009

in Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate

* New home sales surged yet again, by 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised 395,000 in June. That was better than the average forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg, who were expecting 390,000 sales. Regionally, sales gained in three out of four areas of the country. They rose [...]

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We’re unloading tons of Treasury debt this week. First up: A record-tying $42 billion in 2-year Notes. The notes just sold at a yield of 1.119%, slightly above the 1.115% that participants expected. Indirect bidders snapped up 49.4% of the notes sold, while the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.68. The bidder percentage figure rose [...]

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The Obama administration threw in the towel on its optimistic deficit projections today. The White House is now forecasting cumulative deficits of $9 trillion over the next 10 years, compared with a previous estimate of $7.1 trillion. At the same time, the projection for this year’s deficit dropped to $1.6 trillion; the improvement stems from [...]

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The latest figures from S&P/Case-Shiller show home prices continuing to fall, but at a steadily declining rate. The year-over-year change in home prices in 20 top metropolitan areas was -15.4% in June, down from -17% a month earlier and better than the forecast of -16.4%. Prices are still falling in all 20 metropolitan areas, with [...]

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Ben Bernanke gets the nod

by Mike Larson on August 25, 2009

in Economy, Interest Rate News

Ben Bernanke will reportedly be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve Board Chairman. There was some speculation out there that the Obama administration might switch horses (nominating someone like Larry Summers). But no longer. More from the New York Times:
“President Obama on Tuesday will nominate Ben S. Bernanke to a second term as chairman [...]

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The latest batch of housing figures just hit the tape and boy were they a doozy …
* Existing home sales shot up 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million units from 4.89 million in June. That was way hotter than the 5 million units that economists were expecting. It’s also the highest [...]

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The Mortgage Bankers Association released data on second quarter mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures this morning. Here’s what we learned:
* The overall mortgage delinquency rate inched up to 9.24% in Q2 2009 from 9.12% in Q1 2009 and 6.41% a year earlier. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is yet another record [...]

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