Mike Larson - Weiss Research expert on housing, interest rates, mortgages, and consumer finance.

Jobless claims surging, Philly Fed a disaster

by Mike Larson on February 19, 2009

in Economy

The latest economic news ain’t so good, to put it mildly. Initial jobless claims came in at 627,000 in the week of February 14, above forecasts for 620,000 and just shy of the cycle high of 631,000 from late January. Continuing claims rose to 4.987 million from 4.817 million — a fresh record high for the series, which goes all the way back to 1967.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed index plunged to -41.3 in February from -24.3 in January. That was far worse than the average forecast for a reading of -25 and the lowest reading since October 1990 (-48.2). Subindices tracking new orders, employment, and shipments all fell sharply, though in a bit of a silver lining, the index measuring expectations about the next six months rose to 15.9 from 7.4 a month earlier. That’s the highest level since September.

More on this topic (What's this?)
The 'Real' Reason Unemployment Is Rising
40% of Working Age Californians Jobless
10 Things You Probably Don’t Know About the Economy
Read more on Unemployment (U.S.) at Wikinvest

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Diane Davis 02.20.09 at 11:08 AM

I do not understand why they keep bailing out all the crooks. It looks like to me if they would bail out the little people with even $250,000. one time only there would not be a housing crunch. People would pay their house payments, and credit cards and so on. They would probably buy a new car. Or why not limit all these rich people and politicans to only 1 million dollars of their own money and take their money and pay for these bail outs. Our politians dont realize most people live pay check to pay check. And that pay check is only a couple hundred dollars every couple weeks, not hundreds of thousands of dollars every couple weeks. Car makers need to go belly up to get rid of Unions so their wages can come back to earth. It seems alot of people running this country and big businesses make and have way more money than is conceivable to the guy that is going to end up paying for all the bail outs.

2 Russel Kennel 02.20.09 at 11:33 AM

Very reasoned analysis of the Obama plan. I agree, house prices are still too high and should be allowed to quickly fall to affordable levels - in line with community income. One thing though; people who walk away still have to live somewhere. Unless they can find cheaper rent, and if they still have a job, they may as well ignore the market price and just pay the mortgage. In ten years they still have a home and may be back to sea level. But those who face resets, simply “gambled and lost” as they played financial roulette with their home.

3 Julie 02.22.09 at 12:45 PM

How is the government keeping the interest rates so low????
What is going to happen to our dollars??? and the US Dollar purchasing power?

“After a century of stable money, the population understood nothing about inflation.” When the war ended, the German mark began its descent. By the 1920s, the mark was totally destroyed, burned to nothingness in a now-famous episode of hyperinflation.

The inflation could have been stopped by choking it off at the source — by restraining the creation of money itself. There is a story, probably apocryphal, about when the great economist Ludwig von Mises was asked how to stop the depreciation of the mark. He supposedly walked with his inquirer to the place where the government was feverishly printing marks. “Make it stop,” he said. The printing of marks, of course, continued unabated. It took Rome over four centuries to destroy its currency completely; Germany and Austria managed the trick in just nine years.

In The Wall Street Journal last week, I read the headline, “Lower Dollar Is Likely to Spur Economic Growth, Fed Says.” So there you have it. Destroy your currency and spur economic growth.

So if it took Rome four centuries to destroy their currency and Germany only nine, how long before the dollar loses its place as the world’s currency of choice? There’s no telling. The dollar has already lost some 95% of its value since the creation of the Federal Reserve, but there is still no fiscal discipline in our government and no desire among the general populace to return to a 100% gold standard. It’s become accepted that this is the way things are and people cope with it as best they can.

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