Mike Larson - Weiss Research expert on housing, interest rates, mortgages, and consumer finance.

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America’s Financial Doomsday?

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If you worry that Washington is selling the U.S. economy down the river …

If you’ve wondered what you should be doing right now to insulate yourself, your family and your wealth …

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In this remarkable, brand-new video, we show you …

  • Why the most dangerous phase of America’s great economic calamity is now beginning …
  • The monumental event that now threatens to trigger the ultimate financial doomsday — and why it will plunge vast numbers of U.S. families into the nightmare of poverty, homelessness and hunger …
  • Crucial self-defense: How to get through this disaster with your wealth intact, and …
  • How a handful of Americans will use this crisis to build enormous wealth — and how you can too!

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Have you seen
America’s Financial Doomsday?

Click here to tell us what you think of the video!

The number is so big, it’s hard to wrap your mind around it. But look at it this way:

That’s $46,800 for every man, woman, and child in the U.S. Or $2,100 for every person on the face of the Earth.

If you had $14.6 trillion in your pocket, you could buy more than 918 million Toyota Corollas or 292,000 Gulfstream G550 private jets.

Heck, you could buy almost six $300,000 Rolls-Royce Phantoms for every one of New York City’s 8.2 million people!

Puts our national debt load into perspective, doesn’t it? Worse, that debt load is going to keep ballooning — to a stunning $20.8 trillion in 2021, according to the CBO’s April analysis.

It’s shocking. Appalling. Revolting. Pick your adjective.

Uncle Sam is now routinely selling tens of billions of dollars in longer-term Treasuries every few weeks. Just in one week in August alone, we dumped $32 billion in 3-year Notes … $24 billion in 10-year Notes … and $16 billion in 30-year Bonds on the market. It’s nuts!

Indeed, just since the middle of the last decade, our debt load has exploded by 92 percent. And thanks to our legislators in Congress and the Obama administration, Uncle Sam now has the authority to go up to another $2.8 trillion in hock! 

The Endgame

What’s the endgame here? Why is this so dangerous? How is this second step down the road to perdition so perilous?

Again, look at Europe. Greece was allowed to run up its national credit card for years. It owed 195.4 billion euros in 2005. That ballooned to 328.6 billion euros last year. Ireland’s outstanding debt surged from 44.4 billion euros to 148 billion. And Portugal’s soared from 96.5 billion to 160 billion. As a result, their debt-to-GDP ratios exploded to 143 percent, 96 percent, and 92 percent as of 2010.

For a while, those countries got away with it. But then, out of nowhere, their creditors started turning off the spigot. They cut up those nations’ credit cards. And the result is the carnage we’re seeing now.

Now, with Europe’s economy slowing, the tax revenues needed to service all of that debt are disappearing.

The economies of Greece and Portugal have been in recession for some time now. Growth in Spain and Italy is virtually non-existent. And the carnage is spreading far beyond those ravaged nations.

Britain’s economy grew only 0.2 percent in April, May and June. Disposable income fell 2.7 percent in the 12 months prior to March of 2011. Retailers are going bankrupt right and left. And to make matters worse, Britain’s austerity program is expected to eliminate 300,000 government jobs.

Now, Germany — the most vibrant economy in the EU — is flagging. Daimler, Deutsche Bank and Siemens are suffering. Germany’s largest utility is cutting thousands of jobs. 

Now, Europe’s banking sector is being pushed to the brink. This month, the European Central Bank had to expand cheap loans to banks to make sure none of them run short of cash.

The clock is ticking, folks. Here in the States, our debt-to-GDP ratio already surged to 62 percent at year end 2010, and it’s projected to hit 72 percent this year.

Meanwhile last Friday, the University of Michigan reported that Consumer Confidence just hit the lowest level since 1980 — 31 long years ago!

In short, we’re buried in debt and our economy is slumping back toward recession! With no changes forthcoming to get us off this pitiful path, a mammoth crisis is all but inevitable!

And still — neither the spending crisis we looked at yesterday or the debt crisis we’ve just examined are the ultimate crisis — only giant steps toward it that virtually guarantee the historic, world-changing event that will soon alter all of our lives forever.

The Gala World Premiere of the all-new video
we created to help you protect your wealth
and to profit BEGINS TODAY!

We’ve just put the finishing touches on America’s Financial Doomsday:  Protect Yourself and Profit — and the Gala World Premiere of this all-new, blockbuster video begins NOW!

In this blockbuster video, we show you why the most dangerous phase of this great financial calamity is now beginning.

We document the monumental event that now threatens to trigger the ultimate financial doomsday — and plunge vast numbers of U.S. families into the nightmare of poverty, homelessness and hunger.

We show you how a handful of Americans will use this crisis to build substantial wealth.

And we give you the things you can do right now to help make sure that you and your family get through this disaster with your wealth intact and still growing.

America’s Financial Doomsday is free — just click this link and the video will begin playing immediately.

Help us get the word out!
Click here and leave a comment
to give us your personal review
of America’s Financial Doomsday

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Have you seen
America’s Financial Doomsday?

Click here to tell us what you think of the video!

Europe is in tatters. Its governments are barely clinging to power. Its economy is crippled and bleeding. Its banks are fighting for their very lives.

The cost in human terms is horrendous. Millions of jobs have been vaporized. Family businesses — many of them centuries old — have been destroyed. The people have been pushed to the limits of their endurance. The daily news is filled with images of riots and bloodshed in the streets.

The entire continent is now in the clutches of the most savage, remorseless killer in the financial firmament: Unpayable sovereign debt is threatening the very survival of the union.

And now, that same killer is also stalking us; right here, in the United States of America. Barring a major miracle, we, too will soon be living the same nightmare. It is only a matter of time.

We have sown the wind; we are about to reap the whirlwind.

For the next several years, this great government debt crisis will be the #1 consideration in every financial decision you will make. And so, each day this week in this space, we will examine the six major blunders that brought us to the brink of this abyss — both in Europe and here in the States.

More importantly, I will offer you time-tested strategies to help you protect and grow your wealth as this crisis unfolds.

I strongly urge you to pay especially close attention to each one of these Money and Markets issues this week. Save them. Print them. Share them with your friends and family.

They could very well make the difference between financial disaster and success for you.

This Great European Debt Crisis
Began Like All Crises Do: Quietly …

When the global economy was booming in the 1990s, politicians across Europe simply began giving their people more: Bigger salaries. Longer paid holidays. Larger pensions. Greater government benefits.

As a result, budget deficits exploded throughout the euro zone …

* Greece’s deficit-to-GDP ratio surged from 5.2 percent to 10.5 percent between 2005 and 2010 …

* Portugal’s deficit-to-GDP ratio deepened from 5.9 percent to 9.1 percent …

* Ireland swung from a budget surplus of 1.6 percent to a whopping deficit-to-GDP ratio of 32.4 percent …

* Spain swung from a 1 percent surplus to a 9.2 percent deficit …

*Even AAA-rated France, which investors are now starting to worry about, is sinking deeper into a budgetary hole. Its deficit-to-GDP ratio ballooned from 2.9 percent in 2005 to 7 percent last year.

Think That’s Insane?
You’re Right — and We’ve Spent Even More!

Gov't spending chart

In 2007, Washington spent $1.06 for every one dollar in revenue it took in.

In 2008, that ratio climbed to $1.18 for every $1.

In 2009, The U.S. government spent $1.67 for every dollar in revenues.

In 2010, it spent $1.60 for every $1 it had.

And this year, the Congressional Budget Office says we’re on track to spend $1.63 for every $1 of revenue.

Like Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy and other European nations, we have an out-of-control spending addiction in this country. And the numbers are getting uglier year after year.

Regardless of who’s in the White House … regardless of who controls Congress … our leaders inevitably find ways to explode government spending every single year.

Worse, there is zero sign we’re going to get off this road to destruction. None!

Look at the supposed debt ceiling deal that our craven legislators just worked out. They claim it will cut the deficit by up to $2.3 trillion over the next ten years. But that’s just smoke and mirrors.

The deal doesn’t cut spending at all. It only slows the increase in spending.

It doesn’t even pretend to address the biggest budget beasts of all — Social Security and Medicare. And even discretionary spending — the kind of spending we can actually control without too much effort — isn’t going to shrink.

Discretionary Spending chart

Case in point: The bill gives Congress discretionary spending authority of $1.043 trillion in 2012 … $1.047 trillion in 2013 … and $1.066 trillion in 2014.

By 2021, discretionary spending is projected to hit $1.234 trillion — 18 percent MORE than next year!

What about the “Super Committee?” The one that’s supposedly going to come up with some kind of plan to cut spending once and for all? It’s going to be a spectacular failure, just like every other committee before it!

That’s because it’s packed with six Republicans and six Democrats who are just going to parrot the same party lines that their parties’ leaders did in the debt ceiling debate … the one that ended with the issue being punted to the committee in the first place!

Bottom line: Out-of-control spending got Europe into this mess in the first place.

Now, it has drawn the United States into this crisis as well. Our leaders are destroying our nation by spending too much money!

As a result, we’ve already lost our “AAA” credit rating at S&P, and it’s only a matter of time before the other ratings agencies follow suit.

Time to Pay the Piper

Europe’s governments spent far too much and are now suffering the horrific consequences.

The United States spent far more — but we are just beginning to pay the piper.

Everything you see happening now in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal …

> Governments pushed to the brink of default …

> Massive cuts in entitlement spending …

> Economic hardship …

> Plunging stocks …

> Skyrocketing unemployment …

> Riots in the streets …

Is little more than a sneak preview of the financial catastrophe that’s now stalking the United States.

More importantly, each of these “six steps to financial doomsday” we’ll examine here in Money and Markets this week is pushing us to an historic, world-changing event that will soon alter all of our lives forever.

The Gala World Premiere of the all-new video
we created to help you protect your wealth
and profit BEGINS TOMORROW!

We’ve just put the finishing touches on America’s Financial Doomsday: Protect Yourself and Profit — and the Gala World Premiere of this all-new, blockbuster video begins bright and early tomorrow morning.

In it, we show you why the most dangerous phase of this great financial calamity is now beginning.

We document the monumental event that now threatens to trigger the ultimate financial doomsday — and plunge vast numbers of U.S. families into the nightmare of poverty, homelessness and hunger.

We show you how a handful of Americans will use this crisis to build substantial wealth.

And we give you the things you can do right now to help make sure that you and your family get through this disaster with your wealth intact and still growing.

America’s Financial Doomsday: Protect Yourself and Profit is free — just watch your inbox: The link will be in your regular issue of Money and Markets!

Help us get the word out!
Click here and leave a comment
to give us your personal review
of America’s Financial Doomsday

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Pending home sales rise in June

by Mike Larson on July 28, 2011

in Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate

New home sales have slumped for two months in a row, but pending sales of existing homes rose again in June — by 2.4% after an 8.2% rise a month earlier. That topped expectations for a 2% decline. By region, sales were down 0.4% in the Northeast and down 3.7% in the Midwest, but up 4.4% in the South and up 6.4% in the West. The index level of 90.9 was the highest since March. Clearly, the pattern of uneven housing data continues. Sales, construction activity, and pricing are gyrating around from month to month, but making little net progress overall.

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We just got the latest figures on new home sales from the Census Bureau. They slipped 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 312,000 in June from 315,000 in May. That was the second decline in a row and it was slightly below forecasts for a reading of 320,000 sales. Sales fell 15.8% in the Northeast and 12.7% in the West, but rose 9.5% in the Midwest and 3.4% in the South.

As for pricing, the median price of a new home rose 5.8% on the month to $235,200. That was also up 7.2% from a year ago. The raw number of new homes for sale declined to 164,000 in June, good for a 6.3 month supply at the current sales pace.

In other news, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index dropped 4.51% year-over-year in May. That was the biggest decline in 18 months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices in 20 top metropolitan markets fell a marginal 0.05% between April and May.

The housing market continues to fumble around without making much net progress. Sales picked up a bit in the spring, but momentum appears to be fading again. Construction activity has increased somewhat, but it still remains well below average. Home prices are stabilizing, but not really gaining back any of the ground they’ve lost in the past half-century.

Bottom line: Some pundits use the term “bouncing along the bottom” to describe market conditions. I like to picture a ship caught in the doldrums. It’s not as bad as being swept away in a hurricane. But it isn’t going to get you where you want to go!

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In the wake of yesterday’s strong housing starts report, there was some optimism that sales would pick up as well. But did they? Not in the existing home arena. Sales slipped 0.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units from 4.81 million a month earlier. That missed forecasts for a pick up to 4.9 million and was the lowest level for sales since November.

By property type, single family sales were flat while condo and coop sales dropped 7%. The months supply at current sales pace indicator of inventory rose to 9.5 from 9.1, while the raw number of homes for sale also climbed — to 3.765 million from 3.646 million a month prior. That is down more than 3% from a year earlier, however.

The median price of a new home rose to $184,300 from $169,300 a month earlier. That was up 0.8% from a year earlier and interestingly enough, the highest since October 2008.

It looks like a bit of a mixed bag of news on the housing front – par for the course in this market! Sales slumped to the lowest level in seven months, and the supply of homes for sale remained ample. Yet the price of the homes that did sell rose again, touching the highest in a couple of years. It’s tough to see that holding up with disappointing sales volume, and the high level of cancellations. But it’s worth noting. Going forward, it’s all about the job market. If we start consistently creating jobs in this country, housing will recover. If we don’t, it won’t. Sure it sounds simple. But it has the added benefit of being true.

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Housing starts pop in June

by Mike Larson on July 19, 2011

in Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate

We just got the latest figures on home construction and they were strong. Housing starts popped 14.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 from 549,000 in May. That was well above the 2.7% increase that economists were forecasting, and it leaves starts at their highest level since January.

Building permits rose by a more modest 2.5% to a SAAR of 624,000, but that did top expectations for a decline of 2.3%. By property type, single family starts rose 9.4% while multifamily starts jumped 30.4%. Permits gained 0.2% in the single family market and 20.8% in the multifamily arena.

It looks like spring did come to the housing market … just a little late! Construction activity ramped up in June to a multi-month high, while single-family permitting rose for the fourth straight month. Inventories of new homes are extremely lean and interest rates remain low, two factors that likely encouraged builders to pick up the pace a little.

The key question is whether this is the start of a new trend, or if we’re just being set up for disappointment again. Starts and permits picked up in late 2010 and early 2011, for instance, only to fizzle out.

Personally, I’m not terribly optimistic. We’re still dealing with a massive overhang of foreclosed and distressed “used” housing inventory. The economy appears to be weakening again. And the labor market is dead in the water. People who don’t have jobs don’t buy houses. It’s as simple as that. So construction won’t pick up on a consistent basis until we start creating jobs in this country.

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New home sales slip in May

by Mike Larson on June 23, 2011

in Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate

The latest new home sales figures just hit the tape. According to the Census Bureau, sales fell 2.1% between April and May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319,000 was slightly above expectations for a reading of 310,000. Sales fell 3.5% in the West and 26.7% in the Northeast; they were unchanged in the Midwest and up 2.4% in the South.

The raw number of homes for sale keeps falling. It slipped to 166,000 in May from 172,000 a month earlier. That’s the lowest level in the history of record keeping, which dates back to 1963. The “months supply at current sales pace” indicator dipped slightly to 6.2 from 6.3. Median prices gained 2.6% on the month to $222,600 from $217,000, but that was still down 3.4% from a year earlier.

Signs of life in the new housing market? Not yet. Sales slumped anew in May, while pricing remained weak on a year-over-year basis. I can’t say it enough: We’re clearly UNDERsupplied now in the new home industry. But builders have little incentive to build with all the competition they face from nearly-new, distressed homes. That means construction activity and construction hiring will remain anemic, undercutting the economic recovery. Bottom line: The housing market will likely remain lackluster for a period of years, not months or quarters.

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The National Association of Realtors reported on existing home sales figures for May today.

* Sales slumped 3.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million from 5 million in April. That was right in line with expectations and it leaves sales at the lowest level since November.

* Single-family sales dropped 3.2%, while condominium and co-op sales fell 8.1%. Sales slumped in most of the country, dropping 2.5% in the Northeast, 5.1% in the South, and 6.4% in the Midwest. They were unchanged in the West on the month.

* The months supply at current sales pace indicator of inventory climbed to 9.3 from 9. That’s also the highest reading since November. The raw number of homes for sale slipped 4.4% from a year ago to 3.72 million. The median price of a used home fell 4.6% from a year ago to $166,500 from $174,600. That was up 3.4% on the month, however.

Home sales remain depressed in the U.S. Sales fell to a six-month low, with transaction volume sinking or flat in all regions of the country. Chalk the weakness up to the same factors we’ve been discussing for some time: A lack of buyer confidence, a continued influx of distressed inventory, tighter credit standards, and a slowing economy. Buyers simply don’t have the motivation or ability to snap up homes, and there is no reason to expect that dynamic to change for some time.

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We just got the latest look at the new home market from the Census Bureau. Sales rose 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 323,000 in April from 301,000 in March. That beat economist expectations for an unchanged reading, and it leaves sales at the highest level since December.

The number of homes for sale continued to decline, falling to 175,000 from 180,000 a month earlier. That’s the lowest level in the 48 years the Census Bureau has been keeping track. The “months supply at current sales pace” indicator also dipped to 6.5 from 7.2. That’s the lowest since the same month a year ago. Median prices rose 1.6% to $217,900 from $214,500 a month earlier. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 4.6%.

We got a better-then-expected pop in new home sales in April, and a continued shrinkage in the amount of supply on the market. That’s something, I suppose. But industry players continue to lack confidence in future sales, and they remain extremely reluctant to build more homes. Intense competition from the used home market is the primary culprit. Until we clear the inventory overhang there, we’re just not going to get a noticeable increase in construction activity or hiring. I suspect that won’t happen until 2013 or 2014.

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