The latest home price figures from S&P/Case-Shiller just hit the tape. They showed a 17.1% year-over-year decline in the 20 cities tracked by the research group. That was smaller than the 17.9% forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg. It was also down from 18.1% a month earlier.
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 0.45%, the first monthly increase since July 2006. I should note that I’m not a big fan of monthly numbers; You really want to follow year-over-year trends as they eliminate the impact of seasonality. Prices are still falling in every city from a year earlier, with the smallest decline in Dallas at -4.1% and the biggest drop in Phoenix at -34.2%. But even there, we’re seeing some moderation in the magnitude of the drops.
Related posts:
- S&P/Case-Shiller: Home prices down 18.6% YOY in February The latest figures from S&P/Case-Shiller continue to show home prices falling, though the rate of decline has stabilized a bit....
- S&P/Case-Shiller: Home prices down 18.7% YOY in March The latest S&P/Case-Shiller figures just hit the tape, and they continue to show home prices heading south. The 20-city index...
- S&P/Case-Shiller: Home prices down 19% YOY in January We just got the latest figures (PDF link) from S&P/Case-Shiller on home prices. The 20-city index dropped at a 19%...
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I hear there is another wave of mortgage resets coming. What do you suppose will happen to sales if the market is flooded with more foreclosures?
Mike Larson Reply:
July 28th, 2009 at 1:19 PM
The market IS being flooded with foreclosures already. But many of those homes are now being bought. That’s a big change from 6-12 months ago when foreclosures were hitting the market in large numbers at low prices, and no one was reacting by buying. They were just staying on the sidelines. This isn’t going to be a strong recovery or a quick one. But the sum total of housing data is slowly turning a corner just as I publicly predicted it would a few months ago in MAM, my blog, and other places. See this piece for a longer perspective/forecast: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/an-important-housing-market-update-2-33612
Isn’t summer the busiest time for real estate sales? So it stands to reason it would be a little busier right now. Also, I feel it stands to reason it would be busier than 12 months ago when houses were still over valued. But where I live, there are a lot of investors buying up rental properties, and I’m just wondering who is going to rent them. If people can’t afford a mortgage, are they going to be able to afford to rent a house? I’m not seeing it here. I’m also talking to a lot of people who are thinking of moving because the job situation is so bad. I can’t imagine that would be good for sales or for rentals.
I agree with LY about needing consumers to rent or buy. Just talked to an auto dealer today and not withstanding the Florida Depression, he is tired of buying other people’s cars for low ,low prices and then having them sit unsold on his lot. Though clunker car deals are working for some, Used lots aren’t selling anything.He says he hasn’t sold a car in 45 days until this week and like me will have to dump much of his inventory at auction at low, low prices just to pay next month’s rent. I’m dumping my car because the electricity goes off this friday. I will have to sell my 2005 Honda Pilot, blue-book valued at 15,000 dollars for about 7000 dollars and buy a beater for maybe 3,000 dollars to survive. It sounds like many here in South Florida are in the same boat.There are hiring freezes on at all Mcdonalds, Burger Kings, Publix and Winn Dixies, Walmarts,Home Depots and Best Buys, etc,etc. etc. I am a substitute teacher but now daily assignments come once a week with 7500 subs in the system that only requires 3000 subs and recent firings of 500 full timers now assigned as subs.So no jobs even shoveling dirt and thousands living on the edge from day to day. But between happy talk news, O’bama indoctrination methods, and analysts and newspaper reporters afraid to speak out, this news is kept from people.You guys better report accurately or you will lose your credibility as well. Markets turning slowly have nothing to do with social unrest and You’ve lost me enough money this year predicting downward markets while the markets shot up. Lets face it , the markets are rigged and Obama and his gang know how it is rigged. But you guys don’t and thus you wrongly predicted market direction . I lost big time and now here I and thousands of others are facing the guillotine of unpaid bills.So report the facts of the economic disolution of millions of American families first to regain some trust from your readers before you begin forecasting a meaningful upturn in the housing market. Have you noticed Martin Weiss’s recent 360 degree change in predicting market direction. Martin had no idea how powerful Bernanke and the Chicago pols could be. He underestimated the Fed’s influence and power and not being an economist misread all of Bernanke’s abilities , intentions and schemes. Yes, eventually Martin will be right but after we all lost a lot of money first. Rebuilding your credibility should come first instead of trying to peddle another high priced trading service. Pass this on to Martin. He needs to hear it .