It’s “jobs” week again in econo-land. The biggest report is the Labor Department’s employment situation release on Friday. But we’re already getting an early peek at how the labor market is doing, courtesy of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and ADP.
Challenger’s report showed a month-over-month decline in job cut announcements of 35,939 between February and March. Total cuts came in at 150,411, the lowest since October. But it’s difficult to know if that’s a seasonal thing or not, since Challenger’s figures are not adjusted for seasonal variations. On a year-over-year basis, job cuts surged 180.7%, up from February’s 158.5% increase but below the massive 274.5% rise in December.
On the other hand, the ADP report was a disaster. The firm said the economy shed 742,000 jobs in March. That’s the biggest decline in the history of the data series (my data goes back to January 2001). It was also worse than February’s 706,000 drop and worse than forecasts for a reading of -663,000.
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Today, 4/2/09, we get the report that more jobs than expected were lost, yet
once again the market goes up. My skf sold at my stop price, and then immediately
went up several dollars. I bought it back a few minutes later.
I hope it wasnt a mistake. It just doesnt make sense that the mkt is going up.
Mike, Like your analysis but as always prognosticators must have good timing to make investors money. I have subscribed to many of Weiss services, but always get refunds die to poor timing issues. I whole-heartedly agree with your companies long term view of failing markets. Recently, I had to cancel my subcription to the million Dollar Contrarian Fund,due to again market timing problems. I think Martin has underestimated the power of the Fed and the White House and Wall Street cheerleading machines. I think he also miscalculated the politician’ s power to subvert the Accounting Standards Board. Martin and you guys are lonely voices against the power of the most powerful human forces on earth. You will be ultimately vindicated but my losses on Martin and Klaus’s recos will kill me first. The old saying is “the market will confound you and ultimately outlast your ability to stay solvent”.Liquidity is an investors problem too !By the way, Martin in an effort to be transparent, disclosed his vote for Obama. As more ugly power plays like that played against the FASB happen and the more outright deception played upon us citizens takes place, my faith in Obama’s integrity and basic honesty declines. Not that he should have voted for Mccain, but I hope Martin is rethinking his loyalty to Obama as more and more deception and what once would be called fraud, is being heaped on us Americans.Keep fighting guys but battling against the Fed, the White House and and an in the tank-media, will testyour and every American’s perseverance. Meanwhile , i’ll keep reading your blog to see if your timing gets better. I like your analysis and understanding and hope to resubscribe to your service when the timing issues are corrected. Dave Stepelton
To Bruce, During Reagan’s years in 1981 and 82, the market also rose on terrible unemployment news. Markets like huge downsizing numbers as indications of future profitability indications. Ridiculous but true . I hope that helps you . Dave Stepelton
Big business and Wall Street (as well as Washington) refuse to see reality.
Layoffs equate to greater social costs and lost customers.
How can “recovery” begin with no customers?
Guess we will find out.