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Dear Investor,
Wall Street will tell you that the #1 key to investing is picking the golden needles in the stock market haystack.
Not true! Today we have new investment vehicles that make ALL FIVE major asset classes available to everyday investors — and stocks are just ONE of those asset classes.
So your first decision is not which STOCK you should buy, but which ASSET CLASS is likely to make you the most money going forward!
Instead of stocks, for instance, you couldinvest your money in gold or foreign currencies to insulate yourself from the long-term deterioration in the dollar.
You could choose energy and natural resources to harness the economic explosion in China and other resource-hungry emerging markets.
Or you could play it safe with U.S. Treasuries or even cash.
Heck, you could even put money in all of the above.
Clearly, your alternatives are FAR broader and far more POWERFUL than a typical broker would have you believe!
So to help you sort out the question, “How do you build the optimal portfolio for times like these,” I’m going to spend the next few days with you looking at each of the major investment options available to you …
And we’ll also consider how they could work together to help make this one of your most profitable years ever.
Our first stop on this potentially profitable journey: The U.S. stock market.
Our question of the day:
Is this a good time to be buying or holding U.S. stocks and equity funds?
On the one hand, the economy still appears to be recovering. The index of leading indicators (LEI) is making new strong gains. And the Dow is up a whopping 67% in the last ten months alone — a powerful move. Could there be MORE of that kind of life left in the U.S. economy and stocks?
Or is the stock market already running out of gas? Does the Republican victory in Massachusetts mean that this recovery — bought and paid for by Washington — is going to run into new roadblocks, sputter and die? And if so, will that bring back the bear market sooner than virtually anyone expected?
As you know, I have my views. But what is your take?
More importantly, what is your stake? Are you fully committed to stocks right now? Just holding small or modest positions? Totally out of the market?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio.
Just click here and use the “comments” section to share your thoughts. Early tomorrow, I’ll add my own ideas, some of which you may find surprising.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
P.S. Due to overwhelming response here on my blog, I cannot personally respond to each and every one of your comments. However, I’ve recruited two of our best analysts, Amber Dakar and Mandeep Singh Rai, to help me reply to your postings.
{ 380 comments… read them below or add one }
The US investment environment currently resembles the Canadian situation of the 1980’s. Then the Canadian deficit was out of control, and the balance of payments beyond redemption. The Prime Minister deliberately sank the dollar from 96 cents to 68 cents in order to solve the unemployment problem, and it worked. Transition was difficult. There was no immediate return, but the change in the underlying condition of the marketplace(cheaper labour) did restructure the course of investment. I can only presume that this is also Obama’s intention. Thus the current drop in the american dollar will have a long term benefit to American industry. Oil imports are a weakness. Americans vacationing abroad are a weakness. but a lower american dollar will work to develop resources in the US. Thus weakness in the US dollar is bullish for US stocks. The only Question is timing. This is the Free Market at work.
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:40 AM
John, I agree that this is similar to what the U.S. government is effectively trying to do. But I disagree it will have the same outcome as in Canada. Unlike Canada of the 1980s (or of today), the U.S. is the world’s largest economy with the world’s largest liabilities to foreigners. It cannot count on other countries to bail it out by buying its cheaper exports or by lending it more money. — Martin
Dear Martin I’m depending on you and your team of experts.
I am not in any stocks. I am 20% short, 80% cash. I have bought gold coins and have jewelry I am keeping. I think that gold is in a correction and, if Jim Chanos is right, and China is a bubble which is going to explode, gold and commodities may crash. If they do I’ll buy them after the crash.
Smoke, mirrors and perpetual spin by officialdom (elected and appointed) promote the happy-talk mindset the big money folks need to succeed.
Out here in the real world, the economic pain and suffering increases by the day, just as rapidly-inflating prices for goods and services that ‘official’ statistics just never seem to capture and report.
No one in an official capacity will own up to the hard times ahead for all of us, nor offer the distasteful policy medicine necessary to course correct our country’s lurch toward the same fate as ancient Rome.
Perhaps we will survive the latest onslaught of poor public policies, but I fear for our country’s survival. We don’t need to worry about external terrorists as much as the internal politicos who seems bent on destroying us because they lack any understanding of this country’s origins and operating principles.
Any stock market investing is focused on short-term trades with very tight stop losses and a decided preference for international positions, particularly in countries with sound currencies, economies and practical-minded governments.
40% foreign Bank preferred
20% China/Brazil/India ETF’s
20% Oil&gas Royalty trusts
10% Corp. Bond Funds(5star)
10% cash
This is a great intel source.
Dear Martin I have about 1/3 of my assets invested as per Safe Money, about 1/3 in commodities and about 1/3 in cash and c d’s.
What should one do with 401 K’s at the present? Will they be drawn into the governments’ program to salvage S.S.? What about annuities these days? I am in the retirement period and doing a little consulting? I would like to invest in some of these stocks you are talking about, but where do you see them listed, and where do you buy them? What is the minimal invest. req’t? MV
Dear Martin,
Sadly, the US financial future looks grim for the next three to five years to me. Investing in the US now seems pretty dangerous to me, as the looming budget deficit, and weak financial condition of financial institutions, states and a large group of households should impair growth. Yes, I expect growth, but in the low digits (1 to 2%). New normal, as El-Arian said, for the next 3 to 5 years. Thereafter, most likely the US will do better, provided politicians make adjustments needed to encourage entrepreneurship, growth, employment, productivity and innovation.
Still, there will the some great US companies that will make their own homeruns, no matter what. The Apple’s, Microsofts, and even Goldmans’ of the US economy will make it happen once again. Small and median size companies, individuals not involved in the economic cycle of the above companies, probably will not make so good.
For me, my native country seems greater than ever. I live in Chile, where financial institutions are not allowed to carry the leverage their counterparts in the US, Europe and elsewhere do carry. Nor are Chilean corporations generally, banks included, allowed to trade in derivatives in the way they do in the US. Actually, credit default swaps do not even exist here.
A recently elected President with a Phd in economics from Harvard, who is also a Forbes listed billionaire, and a senator for over 10 years, is a blending not available anywherelse in the world. Thus, I expect Chilean assets (stocks, bonds, real estate and currency) to appreciate over the next four years substantially. Therefore, I keep a little bit of each such asset, and feel quite confident I will whether the storm well anchored, eventually making great profits with a low risk.
Regards,
First of all, I think this recovery is a smoke screen. The current bull market is nothing more than a bear trap. Volume has been historically low throughout this entire run. Goldman stock especially. The Mass. election is showing the politicians that the people are not buying into the b.s. coming out of DC.
Real unemployment is at depression era levels, inflation is much higher than the govt is reporting, as a matter of fact every govt report is mis-leading. After Bernanke confirmation sometime this week, the market will again move upwards. This will last about a month – first week in March will start downturn. It will churn for a while before dropping fast somewhere in Oct this year. Downturn will probably last for two years.
Barack (Santa Claus) Obama seems to be feeding the disease not the cure.
I’m looking at some reverse index funds and getting ready to buy. Also, have TIP,BSV and EFR. Gold still befuddles me, it doesn’t seem to move in the right direction when it’s supposed too.
In direct answer to your question – sell in Feb.!!!!!
90% cash short FXE and FXP after the dollar rally I will go into energy, natural resources,precious metals and agriculture.
I am 20% short the DJIA, 10% long the dollar with ETF’s. The rest in T-Bills through Merril’s Treasury only money fund. I expect to go further short the DJIA and perhaps gold soon.
10% Mutual Growth Fund; 10 % gold stocks, 20% US Gov’t Securities, 20% Agricultural Land Trust; 40% Cash,
I was wondering that the information sent out by Weiss Research are all the action items or just indepth analysis? It could be useful to attract more paid subscribers, it would be a good idea to send some “Action Items” to let them see that the proof is in teh pudding. Or some real actions so people can profit; once profit, there is no doubt to join???
Martin,
I am holding the Vanguard Dividend Groth Fund. I am also holding U.S. Energy Limited Partnerships. How vulnerable are these in this market.
I understand the case you are making against U.S. stocks, however, when the U.S. indicies go down, China and the far East almost always follow. I know the Asian economies are fundamentally in better shape than the U.S., but are they truly uncoupled from the U.S. markets. How can one justify a large investment in Asian stocks if their markets just follow the leader with the U.S.?
Thank you,
WJW
Hi Martin,
Yes, I think Massachusetts sent a message to Washington (thank you MA!) and that got Obama’s attention so now he’s acting tough on Wall Street which in turn, in my humble opinion, will bring back the bear market earlier than expected.
I sold out of my positions and I will wait on the sidelines for the right moment to get into certain sectors again.
I believe we will see a depressionary economy first before we end up in an inflationary environment. We will see assets pull back like a sling shot and that effect will then throw assets into heights we can’t even imagine. My plan is to short the market in all areas to build my reserves at which point I will get back into assets such as Gold, Oil and other resources. I would love to hear your thoughts. These are going to be tough waters to navigate!
Hi Martin!
Stocks a suckers bet? This can be a very complicated question. Merely speaking in light of the current conditions I think that it could be too early to tell. As we know stock prices are a function of how well earnings meet estimates, period. The current economy must be able to grow on it’s own. The current leading indicators may only reflect, as much of the “recovery” does, a positive economic reaction to gov. intervention. Sustainability, will be the result of how well Joe and Jane American fixed their debt situation as well as Corporate America-this will enable economic expansion. If they did’nt, the recovery will be short lived. Add on to this the increases in taxes and changes in tax code due to deficit pressures, another bite into bottom lines, they have better paid their debts. Quite frankly, I don’t see a years time being long enough to allow the majority of Americans to right their finances. I honestly see natural resources i.e. commodities the best way to go.
Back to stocks..we all know that stocks are like racehorses. The horses can get smaller and run slower but once the crowd expects a slower race the bets/prices can go back up. Stocks may have another correction but shortly they will have priced in all of these titanic changes. So, depending on your financial situation, one may want to allocate money to some stocks once this recession/recovery decides where it’s going-or even now depending on fundamentals with the individual company.
I hope the recovery continues.
Regards,
Zach Ryan
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:42 AM
Well said, Zack!
Brokers will tell you that stocks always perform over the long term. But there are several fundamental fallacies in that argument.
(1) It generally assumes that you did NOT start investing at high points in the stock market’s history — such as late 1929 or late 1999.
(2) It excludes companies that failed, left investors penniless and were dropped out of the stock market averages.
(3) It fails to factor inflation and the declining purchasing power of the dollar
(4) It fails to recognize that our nation today is NOT the same country that it was in 1900, 1946 or even 1980.
I agree it’s an overstatement to say stocks are a “sucker’s bet.” We must not paint them all with the same brush. But it is an even graver error to assume that stocks are the right investment for everyone all the time — let alone for all of your money. — Martin
My take on this is because of the deficit and the government spending, the US is going to soon run out of silver bullets. How long can the federal government continue to devalue the dollar and get away with it? It should finally come to a halt soon when the rest of the world runs out of their own silver bullets. Because if the other countries can no longer afford to give us money to our fiat economy, we run into a stone wall of our economic turmoil. Then our recovery will be very shaky for the next ten years, if and when it does recover.
I’m a long-time subscriber. My age is 75, and at present my broker has me fully invested on the long side (a few tiny shorts); that makes me VERY nervous.
With the investing public realizing what a huge failure the hundres of billions of
dollars of “stimulus money” have been and will continue to be, and with the prospect of declining stimulus (which hasn’t done the private sector a bit of good) and the expiration of Bush’s tax cuts, combined with huge tax increases at year-end, I believe that we are headed for a double-dip recession, the next one to be worse than this one.
PLEASE advise me what to do, hope for another quarter of up-market or raise cash/go short via Inverse ETF’s and keep much/most of the money in 90-day T-bills.
TVM
Bruce Blinn
After taking a beating like most Americans in 08, I got serious with our retirement funds. I put funds in Asia, 3/4 of portfolio, and not only covered my loses, but made over an add’l $100,000. Asset classes were in precious metals, oil, oil services and exploration, agricultural, natural gas. I did not buy mining etf’s but the mining shares themselves…seniors and juniors. Also added bullion on the dips when I could afford…mostly silver for now. Right now I’m starting an exit strategy on stks in Asia and putting in cash for now. I still beleive we are going to have a double dip and want to be prepared to pick up some stks, like above, that are greatly reduced
Dear Sirs,
US stocks aside from Washington’s and Wall Street’s manipulations suffer as well from some very questionable accounting practices. I would stay away from them.
Thank You,
Tim
yes! because the public thinks wall street are bunch of crooks they took people money said opps and the get bought out are I such cry babies plus cry help us to washington . + no trust we are not going to invest+gates+buffets are in china investing.
I look at the unemployment figures more than stock speculation in assessing the condition of our economy. I remember the 1987 stock crash, where the economy barely hiccuped. Over-speculation and corrections in the market do not rattle me as much as unemployment conditions and wasteful military spending.
invested 30% in natural resource stocks. If DOW crashes then USD will strenghthen and resource stocks will crash. You get whipped so fast that you are left in the spin zone?
It appears that from strong price of copper we still might more upside in the near term. Is this what see?
Martin, 50% cash and cash-like; 15% commodities/metals; 5% gold/silver in possession; 15% oil/energy; 10% international equities; 5% US Equities and TBT. But, what do I know? I have used a lot of the Weiss Elite and Uncommon Wisdom recos to very mixed results. I want to make some money, of course, but preservation comes first. My take is that the dollar will continue its slide, and I’m well positioned for that. But, when!!
My view is probably a bit skewed as i reside in a Wi./ Il. collar county with unemployment at about 17%. Real Estate values are falling by the day. Small business is on a serious decline and I recently had a conversation with a bank exec. in our area that really makes me take heed. They are just not lending money. he says the only people looking for loans are very bad risks.
Im 62 and have been a risk taker and survivor in several midwest region areas. I have had the millions dollar loans and made money and lost money in various ventures. I have never experienced anything like we are faced with today however. This economy is confounding and highly unpredictable. It seems that the complications of Global influences further mudddy the waters.
I personally have been 95% in cash for over 3 years now. I liquidated my real estate holdings downsized and have resolved to live a more frugal and conservative life from here on out, mostly because I have lost confidence in the Governments ability to hold serve and also in so many of the so called financial experts out there. So here I sit, a cynical, soon to be old coot just waiting for the next shoe to drop…..and it will, this I do know.
My only advise is to be more than cautious wherever you put whats left of your assets because the way things are going, aint nothin that might not just be worth about nothin.
Sorry for the gloom . But its my honest opinion. RF in Wi.
I’m happy for the people who satayed in stocdk that they may have made up for some of their losses. I jumped out of the market before the crash & invested where I made 37 % & I didn’t have any loss. I’m not going back to the market as I view our high debt problem as very unattractive for foreign curriencies to have credibility in our $. WE will return as a strong currency if we get our debt under control.
Best regards….Sandra
We are investing our retirement account. That is all we have to make grow. We are both retired and no new money will be added. We want to keep it safe and yet make it grow. Is that possible? We are ready to do the day-to-day trading but need guidance.
I have sold out of all of my stock except one, and have only a minimum investment in it, put all my money in CD’s for now in a wait a see excercise for now
Major correction will not come before the fall
Just to give context, I am investing for the long term, with a perspective of 15-20 years out.
I am 10% gold (ETF), 10% TIPS (ETF), and the rest is distributed with no more than 5% in any given asset. I try to divide the remainder half and half between bets on US recovery and bets against it. Most is in individual stocks bought near the bottom, some in stock ETFS, but also some in bond ETFs. I also hold double-inverse ETFS as insurance; right now they are only about 10% total but that may change.
At 80 with little time to recover from poor economic decisions I am going to cash with only a few stocks. GRS, SLV, JOYG, NRP, PBT, PHO, SCHB, – just 100 shares in each. My confidence in Federal leadership is in negative numbers. Having lost big time when Century Management was our money manager, I have lost confidence in so called professional money management – and just have fear for the future as Washington seems to do all it can to sink the Constitution.
ARJ
I am currently invested about 75% in natural resources including gold and energy stocks.
I see the long term objective to be most important at this time. I believe 2010 is going to be a lead into 2011 and 2012 as being the worst time in history for stocks and any assets related to the US$. I do not want to guess when the fireworks are going to begin. I plan to get retirement money out right now and sit tight until the dust settles. By that I mean getting out of any US$ related asset and into safety.
I am thinking the boom is busting in the markets and I have tried to hedge that with mostly Chinese stock/etf investments plus I have substancial investments in Natural Resouces ….I have maybe 7-10% invested in gold and silver ( GLD/SLV ) I’ve had a nice run in one oil stock but am wondering if I should take profits there and settle into more cash via treasury bills. I will hold STO as Larry has advised. I hold no bonds.
I am invested some as per safe money rec’s. Seems I bought TBT at the recent high ($51) and am wondering if I should sell at a loss. Also, have a small portion of US Stocks but plan to sell as soon as I get back to even. Have been looking at Oil Trusts for the dividend, but so far own only Kinder Morgan. Have GLD and SLV.
I think it is time to sell. into 40% cash at this time. gold and resource stocks for asia is what I am moving into a couple of good B+ rated banks and that is it for now.
For the time being I am still playing the stock game with 50%. I will have a very short fuse to liquidate those. Other than that, I am in TIPS, commodities and foreign ETF’s.
I’am in the market in stocks only example SIRI,STSA,C,AONE,AMCF,WH,
I look forward to you keeping me informed on the direction of the market as you see it. I currently have a small investment in Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I purchased it after watching it for several months. I has proven to be a good prospect. If I could find some direction is China-Brazil-India investments I would consider seriously an investment there. The economies there are so much more growth inclined. Good information is diffucult to find and just as diffucult to qualify. Foreign investments seem to have more pitfalls than US. Governmental intervention seems prevalent, especially China.
Everything is in the stock market. Energy, Retail and Health Care.
I believe the biggest obsticle we face going forward is the tax policy of Federal and State governments. We are in one of the lowest income tax environments in over 75 years. This must change if the govt. is to cover the higher debt service and reduce meet the obligations of Social Security and Medicare.
I am moving significant portions of my portfolio to tax free and tax sheltered positions using annuites and insurance in addtion to well chosen municipal bonds.
I am still holding on to many losers from the past. These stocks have not participated in last years rise to bring me the point where I wanted to sell. Am carrying a loss fwd. already, so, just hoping for the best – esp. with Ultra RE Profund “SRS” – hoping that it will go up some so that my loss will not be to many $$$. Is there some way how I can protect myself?
I submit my comments above. Lou Krause
Current Portfolio
29% Gold and gold related mining companies
5% Brazil, China, India
3% Oil
3% SH short S & P
3% UUP Long Dollar
57% CASH
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Martin, I need help as a conservative senior investor. It is the reason why I subscribed to Safe Money for almost 10years. I always depended on your advice successfully but I realize now I have to learn a lot more which makes it more difficult at my age. I just like to keep it safe but enjoy some nice gains from the investments.
looking at the overall stock market, international stocks offer a better chance of cont’d growth than U.S.(?). Retirees 50% in cash/equivalents at this time, younger investors (10 yrs. or more from retirement) 80/20, with 40% Internat’l.
Bonds: Internat’l and U.S. are 50/50, no junk, plain old corporate.
Commodities becoming a biger player everyday. Gold, too, but not above 20% for any portfolio currently.
Real Estate in the fence. Some have very small positions.
Thoughts?
I think this is still a good time for equities and commodities. The 2yr/10yr treasury yield spread still looks optimistic. I have 40% equities, 40% commodities and 20% cash. If S&P drops to 1000 I am putting another 10% into equities. I think that is a huge psychological floor for the market. Also, I will put another 10% into commodities if palladium drops to $400 an ounce. I am staying away from treasuries until the 10yr gets back up to 5%.
I look for honest management, with a long track record, and a business with excellent cash flow.
I have been a long term holder of Berkshire Hathway for over 20 year and have not been disapointed in the results.
Sincerly, Lugi
Martin, I have some stocks and annuities in American funds, when the last hit was took I lost 10 grand, it seems to be doing very well this year I’ve seen a good increase in my investment, my fininical advisor who is not a stock broker told me to keep it in there and hang in there, my investment is under 25 thousand now, I asked her about blue chips but she told me she doesn’t take care of that kind of thing, should I pull out? this is my only investment which was left to me by my father, I’m nervous and don’t want to lose any more money, which would be my best option, thanks, Marie
I blieve American is in a state of long term decline that will only be hastened by the Obama admisistration whose primary emphais seems to be on growing government. Of course this government growth ultimately will occue at the expense of the private sector. Financially we are in the eye of the hurricane and for that reason I see the stock market being in a bear market ralley position and I would generally not consider investing inthe U.S. market at this time. Better to invest in land, timber and precious metals, somethng that is real and will hold its value while the dollar and all other paper currencies sink in value against the only rock solid currency which is gold.
don’t buy stocks now.wait for retracements.
Even the optimists see only a very modest drop in unemployment this year. So how is a consumer driven economy going to sustain a recovery?
I would look for stocks generally to go sideways or down and so only hold small selected positions in US stocks. Canadian, Brazilian and selected Far East exposure may be a safer bet. Also gold, silver, energy and agriculture.
Long-term treasuries could be a profitable short, as could REIT’s.
I invest in value wherever can find it.If a commodity is undervalued,I try to find undervalued companies that produce that commodity,since commodities themselves and exchange-based contracts on those commodities are not designed to produce investment returns.ETFs are not designed to produce positive long term investment returns either.
I try to avoid investing too much in companies producing any one commodity.I’ll invest in bonds if they represent value – but mostly they don’t at present.Even all cash isn’t all that safe at present – most of mine is in Norwegian Kroner,Canadian dollars and Australian dollars.It is hard to find value in the US and UK equity markets at present.
For 2010 I have re-allocated all my salary deferrals and matching to natural resources and merging markets from the choices available in my job sponsored 401k account.
Would you please give those of us who use the job sponsored 401k some direct recommendations?
I believe that this gold, silver, oil and almost all other commodities are in a correction now that is backing and filling for some sort of foothold before a meteoric rise will occur shortly. The weak holders are probably mostly gone which builds strength and will give solid footing for this rise in commodity prices. These corrections are supposed to instill fear in the public causing the public to sell out as emotion does it`s job and gives strength to the hard assets. Every day now is a day closer to this bull rise beginning once again. You need confidence, patience and knowledge to profit in this game.
Now and for the next few years are and will be a great time to accumulate stocks. The prevailing attitude over the past year has been fear and despair. We have had short term changes but given 10 + years will prove that this period was a great opportunity.
I am 76 years old and my wife 69.
I will invest 40% in gold;20% in energy.20%in T-bilss; 10% in bonds (short terms).
I will pay off my $91,000 30-year mortgage at 5.37% interest to save $559.00 a month in interest. I will select Vanguard for all my investments.
Pls. give me your advices. All advices are welcome. Thank you
The Recovery is just not here yet. i wish it were but there is still jobs being lost daily companies going under, banks in bad to worse state, local and state governments bankrupt and the list goes on. in my area half the people on my street are living in there homes for free while the banks are not foreclosing on them and most of these homes are retirees that now have had there pensions cut. every where i look things are more expensive like groceries, my health insurance doubled last month, my cars registration got raised, sales tax in my state went higher, my credit card company raised my interest rate for no reason. this stuff is happening while my income is going lower not higher and that is a normal trend as companies cut costs. hard for a recovery to happen with that kind of stuff is going on.
as for the markets its going to be a roller coaster ride as the market is always on its own agenda, but will come back to reality sooner or later. i still think the dollar has a long ways to fall over the next 2-3 years with wild swings in between.
It is quite clear to me that the second downturn of all, I repeat all asset classes except the usd cash has begun.
Real Estate, both residential and commercial continue to drag on the economy. Credit card defaults are climbing. Unemployment will remain high for the forseeable future. Add to this the uncertainties of a potentially climbing tax rate on earnings, dividends and capital gains, a hugh trade deficit, a spiralling national debt and what I see as a perceived loss of confidence in the dollar all spell trouble for the stock market. To avoid the increase in next years taxes I believe many, many people will sell this fall. In fact, to avoid the rush. selling may come much sooner than otherwise anticipated. Last but not least we must factor in selling steming from IRA – Roth conversions. Might this be misinterpreted and deepen the decline? Yes I see the stock market as a Suckers Bet. Thanks for the opportunity to vent. Carl Anderson
Hi Martin
Many thanks for your valueable advice and newsletters, which I find of great interest and help.
After making 260% profits in UK banks last year (2009), I have been out the market since September waiting on the inevitable double dip coming (IMO) – once QE is reduced. Whats you’re thoughts Martin?
I believe stocks in general will deteriorate from here as we have gone up a lot from last March. In addition, China is trying to rein in inflation especially in real estate.
I think that the MA election has converted the fed gov and dems into 1937 mode and you what happened that year based upon federal recovery cutbacks. After a great run up, I am out of the market again (followed your advice and got out last time not far from the top of the bubble) except for very small amounts and sitting on cash at tiny rates or return. I think that the whole thing may yet blow out again and I will need the insured funds to stay out of real trouble and meet personal obligations for kids college etc etc. Thanks for your ongoing emails.
I am a new investor and member of your Contrarian group. Yo are my main guide. I am very skeptical about the future of the financial market and economy. (I am 77). I am just beginning to educate myself on the market and investing. I have some gold ETF, a miner; Berkshjre Hathaway, and selected bonds from my investment manager’s portfolio. I am also trying to give a little guidance to my son, whose account is very limited (like, SELL U.S. BONDS!, replace them with Treasuries). I have very little wiggle room, between age (and age discrimination), constricted assets, and no other retirement income–the IRS is even trying to cut into my Social “Security” because I made “too much money” from selling my house in ‘07! It is hard to commit to new purchases–my anxiety is high. Interest in water, energy, and profit!
I have a diversified portfolio, but today sold two of my former good Chinese stocks. I also bought more of gold mining stocks. I am getting less diversified by going long on energy, gold, and Chinese stocks.
At the beginning of 2009 I still had a good portolio both in an IRA and traditional account. Tthen the bottom fell out and sold all before the bottom hit. Since then the account has not grown and actually lost more. I think this is this market is totaly screwed up. When things look like a patern it shifts. I truely do not think anyone can or even has the ability to consistantly recommend a consistant stratgity to protect our wealth (or what’s left of it) in todays situation. It is clear the foreign markets are doing better; BUT, everytime anyone worldwide hiccups the whole world seems to fall apart to start all over a few days later. I would like to see a consolidated strategy from an advisor service. I thought the January 1st webcast with some of your team was excellent and could be expanded upon.
I’m retired and drawing a pension in canadian $. In the past few months I have pulled most of my investments out of stocks in US dollars. I’ve invested in gold stocks and ETF’s, oil trusts and China and emerging markets ETFs in canadian $
Great time to accumulate stocks & bonds in strong dividend paying companies in industries that are needed, i e
pipelines, resources, utilities, food, energy,
Keep about 25% of investments in same type of stocks in international market
FIND A LOT OF VAlue in closed end funds
making an orderly retreat from the markets.
considering solar panels for residence.
girlfriend used to work for merrill lynch. this morning we were talking about how impossible it is to do much with such a state of flux and deception. we both believe the w, not the v.
do not believe in the decoupling of markets yet. maybe in a decade or two.
My money is in cash reserve after pulling out of the stock market a couple of months ago. I am retired and could not afford to keep loosing in this unstable market. What is the safest to invest in at this time? Would it be fixed annuities, indexed annuities, or something else? How and what currency should we buy? I have 401K money. Should I turn it into a Roth Ira, pay the tax now and put the money in CD’s? What can retirees do to invest responsibly?
I used to be a buy-and-hold broader stock market investor (but fortunately at least had a concentration on health care), and let the “experts” (mutual fund managers) make me money. No more — broad does not work — “we’ll all go down together” is what happens. Need to make informed decisions about what the best (and worst, for shorting) sectors are or are going to be, and go in and go out as necessary based on the facts and current business and political cycles.
In the past several months I have substantially diversified away from US stocks in general, going into precious metals, agri commodities, Asia, South America (on a good dip), and currency FX. But holding onto US healthcare stock focus, particularly mega-international consistent dividend earners (the last remaining strong US industry with highly profitable international exposure — but D.C. is trying to kill that, and they will keep on trying and trying).
Right now, I wish the politicians (particularly the Fed, the worst “independent” politicians of all) would let the market “correct” itself. It is the only way that the market can get healthy — it needs to equilibrate to a natural state; until then, there will be erratic, senseless volatility related to low volume and overreactions to the spinnings of the press, as sensible investors (that is, not bankers spending Fed funny money) should be afraid to risk too much of their remaining assets in these waters (thanks Martin for the reinforcement of concept to respect this situation and hold onto a substantial proportion of cash).
Martin: The unsustainable demand supported by the government stimulus simply attempted to replace the unsustainable demand created by several decades of consumer spending financed by debt. Now that ALL of the credit lines are mostly exhausted, the demand increment which they financed must disappear, and it will. We have too many stores, airlines, auto companies, hotels– you name it. Some must go bankrupt so that those remaining can return to profitability. Until this happens (and it’s already started–look at the shopping center vacancies), most businesses are hanging on, but not very profitably. More government stimulus will simply continue to cut the tail off the dog an inch at a time (painfully each time) and delay the shrinking which must occur. THE ECONOMY MUST DOWNSIZE TO MEET REAL, ENDURING DEMAND. Only then will real recovery begin.
20% China/Brazil/Canada Silver mining and other commodity stocks
80% CD’s and cash
I feel more comfortable holding gold and gold mining stocks, and asian market etfs more than I do holding us stocks
Martin: I subscribe to the belief that us stocks are over valued and due for a fall. I am about 30% in stocks now and most of that money is in metals. Some are foreign companies. Doug G.
My strategy is to buy the sell-offs and to sell the rallies. I follow the market (half a dozen stocks) up and down by buying incremental blocks of stock on the way down and selling incremental blocks of stock on the way up. For example on a specific stock (a mid-cap regional bank), buy at 7.00, 6.75, 6.50, sell at 6.80, 7.05, buy at 6.75, sell at 7.05, and so on. My purchases turn about 5% profit on an average holding time of about 6 weeks resulting in a 42% annual return on cost of purchases. The total investment (cash on hand to cover steep sell-offs and needed reserves) is considerably higher, and the more realistic return on funds committed is about 25% or a little better.
The trick is to find safe stocks that fluctuate in a relatively wide range. That has been an easy task for the last 18 months which may continue for the foreseeable future.
Dear Martin, You asked me to tell you what my stake in the market is.
A I’m heavily invested in Oil and Gas income trusts paying a monthly dividend.
We have some Precious metal through a good Mutual fund.
We have approx $200,000 in cash which I’m planning to use $100,000 of – 50% in physical Gold/50% in Junior Gold/Silver Metals miners.
We have some Gold coins.
If you or one or more of your associates have the time, Please answer the following:
a) Is Oil/Gas a good investment at present & for the foreseeable future?
b) Is now a good time to buy Gold coins? If not, what price point should we buy at?
c) do you have any experts in Junior Explorer/Developer/Producing Gold/Silver miners that could recommend some companies?
Thanking you in advance
OPM Canada
There is not one item in the president’s proposals which will create jobs & turn around the economy. It’s obvious they don’t get it, because no one in charge has ever signed the front of a payroll check or has any idea what business is about.
I am in foreign ETF’s, gold & silver because we have a couple of years to go before recovery. Read “The Forgotten Man”, Roosevelt didn’t end the Depression, the war did.
We are not investing right now because I am waiting for the crash. I am short the market right now. How do I keep my money safe while the market declines?
I am flabbergasted by the market manipulation going on with prop desks and if you believe as I do, ppt has had a major effect on markets see zerohedge and shadow stats re. plunge protection team.Heres the funny thing I believe the us markets don’t need the ppt NOW and will move up on more rational market forces .This whipsaw of 4 to 5 percent will bring the retail investor back in to large cap multinationals and hedgefunds and foreigners into mid and small cap for more beta as the China and emrging market and commodity carry trade takes a breather with dollar strengthening to about 81 on the dixie,then dollar and commodity boom starts in march april to dow hiitting 12to 13000 by year end.2011 will be a trainwreck but of course thats after midterm elections.Themes and politics override charts and fundamentals this year.
i bought gold bars about 5 yers ago .still have 20 ounces.my wife started buiying only the stocks that pay dividens.she has picked some real winners . ihavemy ira with vanguard. ive used it as my atm nachine. i oun 3 calls and7domestic stocs that pay9 to 11pct dividens.
The U.S. stock market outlook depends on your time frame. There is no such thing as long term investing in the USA given the decline of its economy since the 1980s. However, short term, many stocks have broken out of two year bases and have some gas left. The best sectors seem to be biotech and natural gas, both fundamentally and technically. The sell off of the past two weeks has not been that powerful. Also, the stock market has moved up in a very healthy way in 2009, two steps up, consolidation, one step back. It is not overbought by any means, and there always lies the possibility of a multiyear rally. Without trying to pick a top, I think the rally will sputter as we test S and P 1300-1400. From there the best trades over the next two years will be long dollar. Now that everybody has declared the dollar dead, it is time to step into the trade, and I have been buying dollars since early December.
We have pulled in our horns. We have some gold, oil and commodities. I think the market is affected by decisions that are being made in Washington and I don’t like their decisions.
I’m mostly in I shares and ETF India, China, S. Korea. Also China, Gold, Silver, Both Small cap and ETF. Have Gas and oil well and U.S. Farm land With Cattle. Did very well last year but haven’t taken off yet this year. Enjoy your services!!
Wife and I are both 55, still working, IRAs largely in American Funds and elsewhere with large portion in world and emerging equities, doing fairly well short term but mixed results in the medium term. We’re tired of the manipulative boom-bust economic cycles which have cut our IRA in half TWICE in the last ten years. We now have the same $$$ in our IRAs as we did in 1999, and they are worth today only half what they were then in purchasing power. Getting ready to transfer $200K within IRAs into allocated physical gold held in trust (wish I could hold it myself but rules prevent), as a hedge against the massive inflation I see coming within the next several years. What else should we be doing or looking at?
I think the market will be unproductive for quite a while.There’s insufficient good news out there to trigger any kind of meaningful advance.Foreign currencies and gold are more appealing at present,and energy stocks seem to have more of a future than any sector.
I must start taking minimum distributions from my IRA accounts this year, and have only 25% of my funds invested (mostly your recommendations). I become paralyzed when I recognize we are a debtor nation with trillions of dollars in unfunded commitments. I’m in the horns of a dilemma; if I invest too conservatively, I won’t get the growth I need. Politics weigh so heavily on our future, I don’t know what to do.
Sandy
I believe the old adage, “Do not fight the Fed.” is as true today as ever it was. As long at the Fed keeps interest rates low, the stock market should rise and remain high. Also the market is a fairly reliable of the action in the economy. It tends to fall before the economy goes into the tank and to rise before the economy fully recovers. The basic issue I see is, “What will happen when the Fed increases interest rates?” Will the economy fall into a double dip or will it be able to sustain the recovery? I look to more experienced minds like yours, Larry, Claus, etc. to read the tea leaves and indicate for us your best advice on how things will go.
I OWN VERY FEW STOCKS AIMOST ALL MY INVESTMENTS ARE IN OIL GOLD CANADIAN TRUSTS
I’m currently at 70% in Treasuries and Money Market and 30% in stocks and Silver.
My wife is 100% in Treasuries since we both have recently retired we need to play it
safe in this market. We’ll most likely re-enter the market after we see unemployment
go below 7%.
Regards,
Jeff
40% Cash derivatives
40% Gold & Silver
20% LA stock
With all of the federal stimulus funding and the global stimulus funding, we should have seen an increase in prices (price inflation) resulting from the monetary inflation (increase in money supply)…but we really have not. There is a reason for this. The level of debt is so large that even with such massive stimulus there has been no material increase in inflation. Until the level of outstanding debt is reduced (destroyed, defaulted on, etc.) to more closely align with the actual cash/cash equivalent money supply, there will be a reduction in asset prices. My feeling is that people have become debt adverse and that eventually the pendulum will swing in the other direction and inflation will come back with a vengeance. But not until massive amounts of debt have been destroyed. When so many people have defaulted on their loans, when asset prices have suffer large declines, what does that do to investor psychology? The economic rule book is being rewritten. If you really believe the above, then I would be a buyer of long bonds right now. Am I ready to do that? Once the money is gone, it’s gone. So I am so very risk adverse right now. But maybe I’ll dabble a bit.
The US Government wants a weak dollar with strong exports that generate cash that creates real wealth that can be used to pay-down debts. Sounds simple enough. The fly in the ointment is that the whole world is trying to do the same thing with respect to their own national currency. Our cost of imported raw materials will be high but our labor will be cheaper versus other markets. This tends to create/preserve jobs here at home…that is the theory at least. When you create jobs here at home you are putting money in people pockets without increasing debt. When you give people a government hand-out financed by debt…well, that’s more debt to be destroyed. Of course, we must strike a balance out of compassion for the suffering of others. Our imports of finished goods will be more expensive and we will therefore have a lower standard of living because we now depend on imported goods to a very large extent. It is debt levels that will tell the story. I wouldn’t fight the Fed right now. Which is another way of saying that I wouldn’t abandon gold right now. The Fed wants a weak dollar and the rest of the world wants a strong dollar. We’ll just have to see who wins that game. I bet the fed will win because our debt to GDP ratios are more favorable when compared to the rest of the world. But still, the raw numbers are really unprecedented. So we are all just guessing.
Thanks Martin.
My best regards.
Hello Martin: Currently I hold quite a diverse portifolio: (in stocks)
36.5%-Large US
29.4%-Mid/Sm US
34.1-International
My US holdings contain 75% Value Stks & 25% Sm Gro; my Internat Stk has 44% invested in Emerg Mkts. I hold NO Bond or Treasury instruments at this time. Last year this portfolio increased 46.6%. I do all my own “grunt” work. So far this year, I’m
DOWN 2.57% ytd.
I have been short the market since DOW 10,000 with the PSQ and SH. I have held my speculative small cap miners, China, and Biotech stocks. I feel as if we are in a bear market rally with a major correction due anytime. Thank you.
I have a small position in stocks at this time. No mutual funds other than one bond fund which is doing quite well so far. I have 200 shares in 4 different stocks and 400 shares in the fifth one. All are dividend payers except 1 and it payed when I first purchased it and then discontinued before I received any dividends. The price also went down so far that I can’t sell now but am waiting. I didn’t pay much for it though, so am not too worried about when price will rise. I searched out your paper on “safest banks” and have most of my money in one of your A rated banks. I had a small holding in HTE and sold it before the Koreans bought it. Didn’t do well on it…bought it before the market crash.
I’m afraid that Washington’s actions over the past year have been band aids that have covered up a festering sore but that have done nothing to cure the disease. Congress and the White House seem to be adept at responding to symptoms without ever dealing with the underlying problems.
It is very confusing, to say the least!
Want to think there is some more steam left un the US market; but can’t be certain.
currently my portfolio :
60% in physical gold
10% short markets
30% cash
right now I am waiting for USD reaching a local top, then sell the short positions, and buy commodities ETFs and stocks with all my cash.
Should I invest in American stocks today? No, I wouldn´t. The Dow is up, shares are expesive. Why should I buy expensive stocks today when I can get them much cheaper later? There seems to be a bear-market in the US. But I think the Investors who have driven the market will soon cash in their gains and the shares will go back to their fundamental value. I´d go with the “Value-Investors”: Buy good shares when they are cheap, wait long enough and sell them when they are expensive again.
In the meantime I save the money or pay down the mortgages on my real estate with extra-payments. That brings me a gain in the scale of the interest I have to pay. Would I get gains in that scale with other instruments (WITHOUT any risk!)??? I don´t think so.
Greeting from Germany, Günter
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:43 AM
Günter, thank you for the input! Based on the precept that money saved is money earned, I agree that paying down mortgages at a faster pace is great way to, in effect, “earn” high interest with no risk. With respect to U.S. stocks, I also agree there are far better opportunities elsewhere. Just remember, there are exceptions to every rule. — Martin
It depends. Each company and its associated stock or bond is a unique entity that requires careful scrutiny. Is the company actually serving customers with a product or service that the consumer finds more valuable than competing products? Does the corporate climate positively engage employees in a way that motivates them to provide superior service? Are profits being generated? What is the debt load? Is management concerned merely with cash flow or sustainable profits? Is there a true commitment to long term growth through engaged employees and well served customers by actually listening and acting upon the feedback both customers and employees give to management? Also what are the market factors in terms of business cycles and technical innovations? And these are just a few considerations.
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:43 AM
Right on, Kevin! Then, as you know, biggest (and trickiest) question is: Does the market already know what we know? If so, is all of this correctly reflected in the company’s share prices … or not? — Martin
we are running on empty and a day of reckoniing is not that far off
Good Day,
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E-mail:(fedexexpresscourierr2010@live.com)
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1. YOUR FULL NAME:
2. YOUR HOME ADDRESS:
3. YOUR CELL PHONE NUMBER:
4. YOUR CURRENT OFFICE TELEPHONE:
5. A COPY OF YOUR PICTURE:
6. OCCUPATION/AGE
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Thanks and Remain Blessed.
Mr. Alfred (Esq.)
Hi Martin,
I agree with Larry Edelson that precious metals, commodities and energy are going to be the true safe havens in the coming years. Despite occasional tough-talking rhetoric, politicians in U.S. and elsewhere just don’t have the stomach to confront the harsh economic realities facing their governments, so they will rely on the printing press because it is the easiest option. In my investment account, I mostly hold precious metals and commodities shares and my strategy is to sell a portion of my holdings into strength and buy on weakness. I feel comfortable with an overweight position in these sectors as I think Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and other astute observers are spot on that a currency crisis affecting at least the weakest of the G7 countries is a virtual certainty sometime this decade, sad to say.
Thanks to you, Martin, and the rest of your team for your insights and invaluable advice .
I am concerned about the sovereign debt crisis in the global economy. I believe it could cause major bloodletting ahead. I see danger in commercial real estate sector and in the LBO market. I still like the inverse etf (srs). It is a cheap stock now and few people are hedged against additional losses in their home values. I also see a slow down in the global econmy because the the US. consumer can no longer be the growth motor for the world. I think the sand is going to hit the fan and fed magic is not going to work out.
I have two trading accounts with about 12 U.S. stocks in each. I’m mostly long in dividend stocks with good track records, and 50% cash in each account. In the mix are a few short term trade stocks I make a few bucks on each month.
I don’t think anyone knows what the future holds, but I believe that the big investors have been trying to talk this market up the last 5 or 6 months. Who knows the outcome?? The obama administration is the biggest problem the nation faces…will he destroy the constitution along with the nation in the remaining term period, or will sanity prevail?? I am 73 years of age, so care must be taken to preserve capitol.
I have not experienced such times in my adult life, money is too abundant, government is too liberal, immigration is out of control, too many people on handouts, and 50% of the people working can not continue to support the 50% on the dole, as liberal government continues flushing trillions down every rat hole they find!! And if they succeed in destroying capitolism, the game for most all “ordinary” people wiil end!! Will “they” ever put America first again?? Time is of the essence. Pray for Nov. 2010.
Sorry to be so lengthy…but I felt I needed it. Thanks.
I am an ultra-conservative 86 year young man,retired 26 years ago with a small pension, on Social Security at 62. I own some gold and silver,Canadian oil trust,mutual fund with no US investments,a couple of US stocks {Pfeizer and GE].I’ve had GE off-and-on a number of years,having made money on it in addition to dividends.I maintain a position in cash ,C/D’s,and a money market mutual fund.I anticipated the last two major drops in the market ,getting out about 6 months prior to crash.I don’t trust an incompetent self-serving government,too heavily influenced by lobbyists!!
Jan 15-20-2010 I started buying commodies China stock following your recommendations.
However the China bubble burse and I sold all my stock on Jan 25, 2010 at
a 5-10% loss.
I do not have a firm opinion of what is going to play out so I am pretty much on the sidelines. I am about 15% in gold and 15% in US stocks and 70% in cash(earning virtually nothing). I am a long time stock market investor but over the years when in doubt I have “gotten out”. Naturally I am anxious to be invested but that is secondary to not losing what I have accumulated.
Dear Martin,
We hold over half a million USD, and are trying to find safe ivestments for them. But, being in Lebanon, we need detailed guidance; converting to Lebanese currency may not be the wisest policy. Stocks? we are suspecious. Gold here is dearer! So what it is best?
Thank you. Kamil. Lebanaon.
I am really lost with this talking heads on CNBC, thier mantra is wall street creats wealth, Look at the growth in this country in terms of real work and all you see is service industry and consumer type sectors, they create jobs but not wealth. We have destroyed or exported our manufacturing infrastructures to China. Thus there is structural deficeiency in our economy. It is going to take a long time to balance our economy with real production type job.
I’ve been utilizing an Eight Baskets (asset classes) strategy for 7 years. The baskets include most of the categories you mentioned (US Stocks, Foreign Stocks, US Bonds, Foreign Bonds, REITs, Cash, Precious Metals and Commodities. I still needed to short the market during the recent bear market to keep the accounts from falling too far. That and selling off some pieces cut the losses in half. I’m not a buy & hold kind of guy. I do agree with the need to diversify away from US stocks. I’ve been beating the drum on that loudly for 7+ years.
I do not think this is a good time to be in US stocks. If you choose US stocks, then at most 20% of your equity portfolio. My pension plan is down under 10% US equity.
I see many of the bloggers are following your recommendations with China/Brazil/India ETFs. I have done this as well with some 20% of my own portfolio.
Some 25% is in gold, gold miners and natural resource ETFs. Where possible I look for ETFs that are not based in the US or in US dollars.
For the fixed portion I like a mix of Canadian government bonds, corporate bonds and preferred stocks in the large dividend paying non-US companies. 10% in cash is a good idea for when buying opportunities arise.
Thanks for the excellent work you and your team are doing.
US stocks are a gamble for the next few years as long as Obama is calling the shots,He is totally incompetent to put people back to work!! If he would tune in to the Kudlow program,he might wake up!!
This time it will take a little more than just optimism and price movement. The Republicans are being elected on the premise that they are the party of “conservatists”. Mr. Bush was a Republican and he played the game like a Democrat. That is why people have been voting a straight ticket recently. This is the only way to stop this finger pointing politics. So this time it is: show me the money time! A lot less talk and more action. Americans are tired of being fooled by both parties.
I feel that at this time investing in the stock market can make you money. I believe that with some homework and luck you can do ok. Its better than Vegas.
I still have faith in u.s. equities and commodities.
Hi Martin,
First I want to say thank you, for all of your professional guidance during this meltdown we had. I was Blessed enough to pull out at the right time and put my hard earned money into something that I believe is the greatest new asset class to come along in a long time. What I liked about this is the double didgit return with the lowest risk I ever seen. I would welcome a response from you.
Warm Regards Andrew
As a 67 yr. old retiree trying to live off of an inadequate nest egg, I need to maximize my total return. Investing in fixed income securities, alone, would not generate enough income to live and growth to stay up with inflation. I mean the real world kind of inflation. So, I feel I have no choice but to take on more risk and be in equities. However, I do believe that there are smart equity choices. I am mostly into dividend payers, and energy, commodity and foriegn stocks and ETF’s. I am about 50 %, equities, 20 % gold, 20 % fixed income and 10% cash. Since I do believe we will experience a double dip recession, and the next downturn will be severe, I am watching my equities very closely and use stop losses. So I am invested but nervous.
My favorites:
1a. 50 % in cash. Current recovery rally is artificial. Unemployment worries me and it has a big influence on consumption.
1b. 50 % in cash because inflation is not a problem yet (see Japan). It takes time to get rid of debt or better saying, private debt may decrease but debt in overall is increasing.
2. 30 % in energy stocks (oil companies, oil field service sector, gas, uranium as well )
3. And 20 % in commodities stocks (copper, rare earth metals etc.). China’s infra needs huge amounts of metals
I skipped over derivatives (index put warranties) because I doubt my skills (timing is very difficult art).
Protectionism worries me, it may result in very dramatic consequencies in stock markets.
Totally out of the market.
Our market investment was not immense to begin with – low 7 digits. In the latter half of 2008, with Alt-A’s, ARM’s with 1 and 2% teaser interest, and liar loans, it was clear the party could not go on – and would probably end very badly.
We bailed the market in late 2008 and went to CD’s and treasuries. Missed the whole collapse. Didn’t make anything but didn’t lose anything either.
Now the government is spending Trillions we don’t have. This party will end badly as well.
Funny thing about things that cannot go on – - they don’t. We have put some into severely depressed income producing real-estate (fully prepared for a further 30% decline) and some into offshore t-bills, and a ton into gold at $500.
Essentially, waiting on the sidelines for the next shoe to drop. But back into the market now? Not a chance.
I think the market will be “treading water” within a small range for at least 2 more quarters, probably more. The mood of this country weighs heavily on the negative side, and the KEY TO RECOVERY IS THE ENGINE CALLED, “EMPLOYMENT”. Right now the key is not in the ignition.
I’m a big picture thinker. There are more consumers in China, Indonesia and India to drive those economies forward faster than the well established countries. A lot more headspace left in the can if you will for growth. They carry less debt burden and perhaps fewer government obsticles to navigate. They also have a historical view of an economy (US) for guidance going forward. From a political view, there are many, Russia for instance, that may see opportunity to “beat” America without having to fire a shot. Keeping the carrot in front of our politicians via buying debt, then pulling the plug, giving our system a shock such as we confronted on 9/11 could send our economy way south giving them a moral victory over the giant. There are many forces in play here, its not just money. Power and money corrupt, DC ring a bell..?
Here (US), we have huge debt burdens, politicians wanting to tax more money OUT of the economy and credit issues squeezing spending. No spending means a shrinking economy and with fewer goods to pedal globally we appear to have a darker horizon than foriegn investments. It is now more difficult to “grow” ourselves out of recession with fewer consumers to count on domestic and foriegn. More saving here, which is a result of fear during tough times, also contributes to a short term drag on the economy since we so dependent on spending. So we have a bit of catch-22 in the ST to get to a long term situation that might be favorable provided our DC brainiacs can find solutions to SS and Medicare implosions on the horizon.
Having said all that: foriegn investments (I prefer Mutual Funds), gold/silver, commodities and natural resources the world needs. US firms that are global, stable and growing. Strong dividend companies for the income.
Very heavy into growth stocks with a couple of overseas funds. Trying to recover hits from 2000 and 2008 as have just been forced into retirement because my job went to Mexico.
I am in all 5 brackets…..split about evenly, give or take, with only the highest quality stocks (historically).
I currently remain in a defensive mode with 10%+ in metals, 10% in ETFs,20% in oil exploring and pipelines,18% in short-term bonds and 10% in cash. The potential for sudden unexpected events i.e. geo-political and financial are on red alert and a sideway trend is the best we can expect this year. The financial world is flat-how far distance is the edge? Pres. Obama’s proposal to ‘freeze the spending’ is a policical statement not a financial one.
After Liquidating US Equities and taking 10-15% losses, I have decided to stay out of US Equities till next major correction. My psitions now are:
Long Leaps CITIBANK 1%
Short Leaps CITIBANK 1%
Canadian Energy Trusts- 5%
Developed Market Equities(Telecom-consumer staple)- 5%
Indian ETF – 2%
Australian Currency ETF- 9%
US Govt. TIPS-12%
Cash/Money Markets/Insured CD’s-67%
Areas of interest: MLP’s, Energy Trusts, Oil majors, Gold/Silver Metal and Mining companies. 2x, 3x Short and Long ETF’s of SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDM, DIA, IYR and IYF for short term trading. Its a scary scenerio and saving principal and getting yields enough to keep above hidden inflation is the sole objective.
I own a construction company in the southeast, and our main line of work is in the infrastructure market. To date we’ve had two jobs cancelled due to no availabe stimulus money after we were successful low bidder. Second the only one we have started is so convulted with federal paperwork, compliance issues, and over the top wages requirements (union based) I honestly wish we never got the project.
Also, where is all this federal aid coming from…nobody is making money other than the banks…2011 I feel will be a another very tough year…possible even 2012. Bottom line forget about 2010.
You bet, but how are the insurance cos., banks, investment houses to make up for their losses but by volatility and the scared investor who sells at a loss.
I cashed out all my stocks when the DOW hit 10200 a couple of months ago. I’m undecided what to do with the cash.
Hello Dr. Weiss…………just my humble view…….my older brother has been accumulating blue chip stocks for decades,which he still holds. He has used this depression to obtain powerful companies stock at fire sale prices without fear! I thought he had better sense.hower, I was informed he has doubled his money on financials and is in at lowest and sells quickly when double or triple is reached. Appears Wall Street is still playing the same old games to me ,I am chicken at this point towards ANY INVESTMENT. My fondest regards to you and great staff. Y.T. Gary Conlon
Martin, two weeks ago I liquidated my six-figure managed account with a major broker. That makes my current seven-figure allocation approximately 52% fixed income 40% cash and 8% equities. I expect to re-allocate assets when the market has another major correction. Meanwhile I’m primarily in short term treasuries and government money market funds, bonds and CD’s.
I believe a big market correction is on the horizon! Major banks have way too much off balance sheet risk..derivatives. I believe all six major money center banks could be the next AIG!
The bear appears to have regained control of the US Markets. Unless the administration lets bad debts die a natural death, “remedies” done to unnaturally prop up the asset prices will end in even more virulent down turn. I am totally out of the US markets. The emerging markets are not immune either. with the fiat money system, this appears to be a global phenomenon. I think we are heading for a phase in history which might reshape the way we think about money, credit, what make economies flourish and perish.
I have almost nothing in stocks except one 401(k) and an IRA left over from when I was working about 8 years ago. I have some funds in cash. I don’t have any income except a note on some real estate and social security. I don’t know enough about investing to go on my own and really don’t trust brokers or financial planners, esp. since Madoff came to light–I’m sure that there are many, many little ones just like him and many other irresponsible financial planners who bullshit and deceive.
I’m out of stocks for the time being. Corporate earnings are good, but their growth is not. They’re making money by cutting people and other costs. The banks, which lead the rally are not lending,but instead are making money borrowing from the Fed at zero interest and buying Treasuries to finance the government deficit spending. All we need is some more talk about taxing the banks to sending the market down some more.
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Nancy, yes. But let’s not assume the Federal Reserve is going to sit back passively and let things slide again without at least one more major attempt to pump money into the economy and the markets. — Martin
The folks inside the Beltway are hell-bent on wealth redistribution in this country which will and is killing the incentitive to assume risk of any kind! It is essential to position your investment dollars in a manner that considers the coming inflation crunch, ability to shift assets quickly and affording some tax shelter to the expected substantial rise in taxes especially for those of us that have worked hard to accumilate a corpus sufficient to retire on !! My take involves 25 % in Florida Tax exempt Municipals (Fl. because it is and always will be a growth state) and the remainder in CD’s (interest rates will have to go up at some point soon—replace Bernankie for starters!) Then pick your time to re-enter the stock market very carefully!!
With myself age is important, I am 71. So since years I bought solid, high dividend paying stocks that also had some splits. That is my core. But I always was interested in commodities. I hold Am. Century Gold, Gold corp a.s.o. ~ 20% of my holdings at the moment. I got into Uranium shares in 2004, Cameco, Denison and lots of others, which I sold 2007. Commodities I watch closely, willing to sell if zenith has been reached. Never be too greedy – has been a good policy to me. European Union has swallowed too many week countries, and Euro was biggest competition to $. For the moment I do not feel too optimistic. We might amble with some minor ups and downs through 2010.
I truly believe that the information being purtrayed on the news as well as the inflated markets are just the influx of government funds; futhermore from the street perspective I come across more and more businesses that are struggling more than ever in all classifications to include believe it or not medical practicioners as individuals can’t afford going to doctors. In closing; I don’t see how the government can continue to turn and burn with inflation; unemployment and the ever increasing supply of homes that will turn over this year which people won’t be able to afford on the rise. The fed has to raise rates eventually and that will continue to strain the small business owner.
I am now:
1/3 in gold and oil stocks -2/3 in cash
Antoine
I feel like the market is still artificially inflated and the US economy and subsequently the world will shortly implode. I believe the fat cats manipulate the market to make money and bonus for themselves and are stealing from the average investor. We liquidated some gains (smart company stock purchase on my part many years ago) and some losses (our broker picks that of course made him money) and don’t believe we should reinvest less we lose everything we’ve ever worked for. Frankly I’m wondering if the time is right to exit the market forever. Your thoughts?
WE think it’s great depression mark 2. Currently using an etf to scale into a short position on rallies. I’m sure there are some marvellous stock picks but too nervous to go in with my doomy scenario (and of course missed the rally from March). Did well with gold last year and sold at the top :), awaiting good place to enter again. Europe looks bad and with US deflation I’ve gone for a long dolls short euros etf. I’m
also short silver. Need to watch these things frequently, use context dependent stops, and picks from fundamentals with scale in from technicals. Globalisation of labour and financial markets means rapid changes and crazy mix of inflation and deflation, panics and bubbles…luckily still have a job so not enough time to dedicate to money making…enjoy forex via spread bets when time permits. WE are in the UK and still awaiting a decent house price crash so we can buy a big castle :) at a reasonable price.
US multinational stocks that make a profit.
US multinational stocks that pay dividends.
US dollar. Its strength is in security and safety. Would you want to live anyplace else? The US is the place to be and invest. The dollar is king!
Wow Martin, Quite a host of varied investment arrangements! Mine happens to “mirror” the KISS method, basically been invested in gold & silver, and don’t have much interest for US stocks, or ever have had for 40 years…I added to the precious metals back in 2001, and banked some profits at 1200AU, and 19SiL.. I did have some cash in loonies last year for 13% return, and would like to buy some brazilian currency view their economic dynamics unfolding moving forward…Other wise, I’m awaiting your insight for guidance to diversify. My metals bias was instilled in me as a Chicago Board of Trade member for over thirty years during the 70’s & 80’s, and 90’s,,,,exciting times, as you may remember, or should I say “historical” times..I thank you in advance Martin, and await your guidance…..John Woodward……
Like many other investors, I lost “big” during the last year of G.W. Bush’s Administration, and I can’t help but place the blame on Secretary Hank Paulson’s manipulation of stocks, not just domestic stocks but foreign also.
Today, I have 35 – 40% in energy stocks, 30% in Asian nutual funds and energy mutual funds, and the balance in penny and small caps.
Am I sure of my positions? No. But, I am sure the markets are not a “level playing field” for individuals like me. I hold to an honest approach to investing, and hope that it works out favorably for my Family and I. J.M.
I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE STOCK MARKET BECAUSE OF THE MANIPULATORS INVOLVED. WHY SHOULD I EXPECT THEM TO BEHAVE ANY DIFFERENTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE?
What’s the point of buying into a market that has run up so much and so fast w/o the economic fundamentals to make this sustainable. It would be like buying high in the hopes of selling even higher. With the largest tax increase on the horizon, tightening banking regulations and less credit availability where is the economic growth coming from? I think treasuries are a better place to be for the time being.
5% bonds
5% cash
35% China/Emerging Markets
55% US Stocks
Seeking better mix for near to mid term.
Sucker bets:
S&P
Utilities
VIX
Euro
Nasdaq
Silver
Gold
what is a good us securtiy to invest in right now.
I think Obamas speech tommrow, will have much to do, with any investment direction, We were told, these Harvard Graduates, are really smart, but he has not done 1 thing except increase the debt (which needed no help) since hes been President. His trend is socialist. Clinton Rhodes scholar, Socialist, if you have to go to school that long, & you still dont know Socialism does not work, you are not brilliant, you are stupid as hell. No wonder you have so many layers of Government, so no one knows which branch, to blame it on? Private Enterprise is the path to bring this country back to prosperity, not Government Hacks Untill we clear them out, this country is still in unchartered waters
For 2 years I’ve avoided US stocks. We’re in BIC (I’ve never been comfortable with R). Also mining & nat. resources, commodities, emerging MKTS, water, uranium…mostly ETF’s & some funds & 95K munies @ 5+% and a small local bank stock that’s been in my family since the 50’s (about 130K)/original investment of $500.00. Total portfolio of about 600K+
The level of market risk is very high across all asset classes in my opinion.
I am in small positions in commodities, currency, and strong emerging company EFT’s for now.
It is clear to me that as the market goes or down strongly that ‘all boats’ are floated the same way. My biggest concern is not ride a bear down. We need all the help we can get to avoid all of the risk and the big down bear markets.
Many thanks!!
Martin,
The only thing I am buying is gold and silver coins ,and holding on to cash.
Cash is king!!!!!
John
I deeply value your wisdom,
I am a relative newbie in swing/day trading. I look for strong stocks which are being unfairly pushed down by daily variations in market conditions. This has been very good except for the last week with three major consecutive down days. My stops caused me to loose two months worth of small gains.
Now, in this earnings season, I am changing my strategy to going for the short term with stocks having positive earnings surprises, taking short term profits from the afterglow of each.
I typically maintain a 2/3 cash position in IRA/SEP accounts. (Three day settling requirements take care of this.)
I am slowly moving from IRA’s to SEP’s. Can I be certain that a government desperately looking for ways to raise cash could never reduce or eliminate the ROTH tax advantage?
Thanks!
.
Since the rise in stocks in one hand and the drop in employment in the other hand does not make sense to keep riding the market that is being pushed up by an unknown force. The old saying that what goes up must come down. The law of physics still applies. I would diversify away from the stocks.
I DON’T THINK THE FED OFFICERS, OBAMA, BEN B. WANT TO LOOSE THEIR OWN PERSONAL MONEY ; SO- WHAT ARE THEY INVESTING IN ???
THAT SHOULD TELL US WHICH WAY THE WIND IS
BLOWING
I value your opinion and suggestions concerning how we might be able to know if we are entering another multiple day triple digit down DOW.
My 401k has me in mutual funds, Isn’t this the same as stocks and should I be worried enough to do something else. I just recovered most of my losses from the previous year I would hate to lose again.
40% oil 20%gold 20%silver 20% cash in case we need to run
My concern is that we are now way off the historical relationship between stock prices and returns. The market is now producing about 2% when the historical average is closer to 6%. Either profits are going to triple to bring us back to normal or the market is vastly overvalued. With falling sales and increasing unemployment I don”t see how profits can increase three fold, (don’t forget we already have seen serious cost cutting to get to the 2% number). I think it is far more likely to see stocks fall. I would be very careful and very conservative with any stocks. I am interested in other ideas on how to profit if stocks fall.
I think that the recovery is probably going to be a long, slow one with lots of minor ups and downs along the way. From what I see now, I don’t see a lot of jobs being added in the next 1-2 years and the economy is not going to improve until unemployment improves. Long term, I still think energy related stocks and commodities (copper, iron ore, minerals, etc) will be the place to be when the global economy does start improving. I am sure that all of the manufacturers have depleted their stores of raw materials and they will have to start replacing these when things do turn up.
25% gold & silver
15% short market
17% energy
7% china
36% dividends
got burned pretty bad last year trying your inverse etf’s and currencies so am out of those now – for what it is worth:
30% cash and money markets split between several institutions
25% cd’s, half in 1 year ladder, half in 5 year ladder
20% bond funds, short term u.s., tips, corporate and international
15% stock funds, 10 etf’s covering water, food, energy, materials
10% precious metals, mostly silver and silver miners, some gold
—– maintain allocations by trimming positions that are up, adding when they are down
I have transferred some of my wife’s and my IRA money into Latin America and
China stocks with a concentration on Commodities also. No matter what happens in the
U.S., CHINA is going to need more OIL, GAS, METALS,ROADS,and WATER. Brazil
has it and China needs it !
Yes, in general I think US stocks and funds are a suckers bet unless they are globally diversified and offer a safe dividend
I’ve moved my retirement funds to Utilities where I can.
Otherwise I’m following the advice of Claus, Mike, Larry, Tony & Sean. I’ve done a couple Options at Ron’s recommendation. I’m struggling to know how much to put into each of their recommendations. I don’t have a big enough account to put some money into all their recommendations.
Thanks
Have gone completely over to corporate bonds, until i stop reading completely oppisite views of the stock market by various so called “financial experts”.
Hi Martin: I have gained considerable respect for both you and Chris Ruddy over the course of the last year or so. About the time you appeared on my computor screen, I had already committed a spare $100,000 with Chris Ruddy, using David Fraiser’s talent. I am a seasoned shopping Center Developer–spent most my life in R.E. so am a real neophite in your field. For 5 or 6 months I followed the advice of David Fraiser–but because of my expertise and commercial background, I was exposed recently by a Central Valley Lender, to a failled new fast food restaurant bldg. worth over $2,000,000 that I could purchase for $700,000, so I switched most my money out of the “Million Dollar Secret ——- will lease the bldg. to a major chain–sell it–then resume playing the market again–and certainly consider assimulating some of your talent. My wife and I built and still own a major Community Shopping Center in that same area. Furthermore, Sterling and Peggy Seagrave, Internationally known for their “best sellers” recently published a book regarding some of my life, titled “Red Sky in the Morning”, which seems to be getting good reviews–hopefully it also will generate some money for me to invest with you. Much of my life has been unbelievable, but fortunately Counter Intelligence agents got into the act at one point, and with the “Freedom of Information Act” passed a few years back, some of my life (The Manila File) has made possible the publishing of some of my exploits. For your information, Newsmax will soon be publiziing Red Sky, and I would hope you would take the time to read it. Go to philipmehan.com and if it sounds like something you would like to read, let me know–I will have Dan provide you a copy, and I certainly would welcome your comments.
Philip Mehan
There are plenty of good US companies from nano caps to mega cap dividend aristrocrats and plenty of US based global companies as well. I do have money in US stocks – diversified across sectors, cap and market but I also have money in other asset classes as well. The bottom of our “crash” was a great time to pick up quality companies – and that is my philosophy I invest in quality companies not stocks and for most stocks I am a buy and hold investor – unless there is a major “company” setback to change my opinion. I am however putting a larger share into non us markets and commodities than several years ago.
I have just sold all my holdings both domestic and foreign but one specific stock which is not bothered by Washington.
Glad you asked Martin, I feel very frustrated-waisting my day after days trying to decide
where to put my IRA-which I only have two more weeks to place it since I moved out of money market. I read all your advice and book and agree with your view, am scared as I have been burnt w/advisors, don’t trust one to handle investments for me so I have been studying like a fool, to learn what i can, I still don’t understand how to put IRA
in different investments, I wish you had someone there who would be affordable to
advise. Have 5 years left to retirement and need growth, also own 4 houses-3 rentals-
concerned about property tax increases-at same time, this rent is my income for living
expenses. I know you said to sell property I don’t live in-what to do in this situation???
Thanks so much for your advise and emails. God Bless
Martin, you are a smart man as was your Father before you. Right now I don’t have any faith in anyone who gives out free stock info or worse yet, for pay. What is there out there in this day of e-mail and cheap circulation, that ensures that what I call “front running” isn’t what most of these experts are doing. They send an e-mail and tell you that abc has gone up x$ since they first told us about it and they still see more room to go. Next month or later on they repeat the same story and surprise surprise its gone up again. They can show gains each time if they get only a small % of takers and this re-enforces the hopes of the earlier takers. Each time they stand to get a small increase in takers to subscribe or better yet buy some more abc. Sounds like a good business with low overhead.
Thanks,
Rich
Please don’t think that I’m lumping you in with the bad guys I’m talking about.
for US Stocks – BAIL
FOREIGN STOCKS – never touch them
Cd’s have always been the bread and butter of my investment journey. I get paid every month, period. The secret
is ALWAYS going with 60 month cd’s. I’m enjoying 5.75% on my 60 month cd….even though i was told by the “pro’s” not to.
With thousands in interest I get paid, I then can pay bills, re-invest
into stocks, metals, or houses.
Cd’s aren’t sexy or even cool, I know this. But what is cool is
seeing the interest dump into my checking account every month
for DECADES!
If you must own stocks, make sure you sell covered calls and or sell puts….if you don’t know what these are YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS IN THE STOCK MARKET! With these premiums I GET PAID, I then pay my house taxes or buy investments OUTSIDE the stock market.
Investing is all blood, sweat and tears, if you hear otherwise….ask to see their books.
Good luck and God bless!
JL
Personally, I am 80% + invested in the stock market. 30%, I have in international fund, the rest US stocks, and currency ETF.
I am thinking of going long on the Dollar and getting inverse ETF’s for the US market.
I ‘m holding some uranium and a Canada gold company stock and a Nat. China gas stock that’s my mix which right now is just stable of the markets but Uranium has not preformed as well as I would like , but watching the markets.
Accountability is the problem in America. We do not hold our government accountable and in return it does not hold corporations or it’s citizens accountable. If you don’t learn from history you are sure to make your own.
I will not invest in US stocks at this time, I am leary about financial weakness in many other countries as well. I currently own aprox 15% in China EPHCX fund (I would like to increase to 25% at the right time); aprox 25% in gold/silver CEF fund, and the rest in a Pershing Govt acct with 3 mo treasuries and cash. I am holding minimal amounts in two individual stocks that I lost most of my investment. One is a nickel company and the other is a power company, both are located in Australia. I may be holding them for life to get some of my investment back.
Connie
I hear contradictory evidence. The dollar is strengthening or the dollar will weaken.
I think select U.S. companies are still good investments, but the past year has shown that there may not be such a thing as investment. Most of what has transpired defies logic. And, maybe the government is manipulating the market. Who knows? One concern I do have (among others) is the fate of commodities. I have heard time and time again that 2010 is the year to invest in commodities. Yet, they are tanking.
Is it all because of the China rumors? China’s actions appear wise yet the market says otherwise.
I think the us stockmarket will still be a bull market.
This latest bubble for the “common man” (real estate) is still unwinding, what with near 15% total unemployment. Cash flow is next to nil at the small business margin, foreclosures still high, and the “WalMart’s” are king. If the economy is 70% consumer, than the crunch is on those who sell and buy month-to-month.
And thanks to phony accounting and evaluation, I don’t rely on any Industry pundits. The stock market, in general, is no longer a place for investors, but traders. If that’s your game, and your nimble on the keyboard, have at it.
We no longer have a free market, what with all the government decisions coming out of the blue from left and right. You don’t know what from where and when. I might as well dance on the edge of a sword!
Has anyone noticed how many bubbles we’ve had in the last 25+ years? That’s al there is in America. No real solid foundational investment’s.
I treat everything like a commodity, so demand shows me what’s up next to supply.
I no longer have confidence in the “experts”, their train of thought is only for the next 6-12 months, and their standing among their peer’s.
I like the Dividend stocks, Energy sector stocks, and the Hi tech stocks. But I only invest moderately. I do invest in ETF’s in these sectors also as well as in GOLD stocks and Gold ETF’s. I also find 1-3 year Treasury Notes do yield a slight percentage return (2.7%), rather than Treasury Bills which yield nothing.
As far as the US markets go, the growth and valuations just don’t exist to support the current values. Until actual inventory orders increase, along with jobs, there is no recovery. We have been (regarding market valuation) riding a wave of government bail out of the financials and cost and labor cutting by everyone, thus pulling positive numbers out of cost cutting. Until top line revenue grows, there is no “bottom” to valuations.
Martin,
Your research is so thorough I have to leave it up to you. My major concern is the deficit and our society’s inability to scarifice for the common good. The US gov’t is completely out of touch with reality and common sense. Please show us how to protect our wealth while we muster the courage to pay for our visions of grandeur which were just castles in the sand. I know so many people with million dollar plus homes and they are just living in fear of foreclosure, better yet, of ever being able to sell them. The real point here is to take away the notion material things make us happy. Let’s get back to being smart, being prepared and taking pride in doing the right thing, not immorally profiting at someone else’s expense.
God bless you and your staff. Beacons and lighthouses must be on the strongest foundations and weather the fiercest storms to be of any value. You, my friend, have guided us all through a terrible storm by paying attention to accurate indicators. Thank you for your honesty and pragmatism!
I have about 25% U.S. stocks, mostly energy and tech, small amount in 500 index fund and some mid-cap. …also have them partialy hedged at the moment using SH, RMS and DUG.
Also have gold, silver, copper and China shares amounting to about 13%. Lots of short-term treasuries and some intermediate bonds along with small amount of corp bonds….50% bonds now and about 12% cash and some tips.
At the moment I feel the more likely event will be deflation.
Bob Drulard
martin…i have followed you and your team as to investing in china, india etc. however
i do have a question…i own a stock in china that trades here in the U.S… china natural gas symb. CHNG this company services the people in china..with natural gas and 36 and fueling stations and sells natural gas to commerical industrial and residential customers and is currently building a LNG liquid natural gas plant schedule to be completed q2 of this year 2010. the company is making money and has a p/e of 9.7
so why is the stock steadily going down…can you explain it…thanks
If you are 70 or older. Get out of the market and take the cash to your local credit union and take the 1% money market account. Then wait for the CD to go up and put your money in there.
2% tech,14% oil & gas, 2% coffee,5% gold 4% metals 16% MLP % Utilities,13% Brazil, 11% China 9% Chem% Fertlizer,24% cash
I use Safe Money report to base a lot of my decisions. I have roughly 50% in cash and cash equilivants. Been looking at oil trusts for the dividend. So far, Kinder Morgan is the only one I own. Have 20% gold and silver and mining. A small position in US stocks and hedge with inverse etf’s. The rest mutual funds.
I think that the current deficit and the huge interest payments the government will have to make to foreign holders of U.S. treasuries will slow any incipient recovery in the U.S.
Therefore, investments in foreign stocks will fare better than in U.S. stocks.
Everyone always looks Wall Street as the driver of equities.The inside trading and lack of regulation is a big factor in how equities perform. The real story behind the right stocks is obtained by doing the homework on the individual companies. For those who are in the 401-K vehicles,you need to break down the asset classes you hold and make sure you know what percentage you hold of each. Most 401-k investors pay little attention to their own portfolios. I personally have 45% in physical Gold, Silver & Palladium, 35% in Money Market, 10% in Short Term Bonds & 10% in Foreign.The 10% I do have in equities is in Realestate & Tech.
I am a Canadian Retiree and have all investments in Canadian stocks.
Energy, banking, Health Care, Staples, Telecommunications and cash. I am staying away from US stocks mainly because of the threat on the us dollar. My present portfolio is 50% cash.
I have looked at gold and emerging markets. Both to me are a crap shoot. Other governments are not like ours!!!!! Changes can come at any time and to be in Gold I believe you have to be a day trader. I think 2010 will not unfold till the 3rd quarter.
Regards
I think the stock market is quite as vulnerable as you suggest, and it has me on edge. However, I am mostly invested in commodities and natural resources, and I trust that you and your people are in fact doing your best to help us stay a step or two ahead of disaster while making a few bucks. I listen to you and try to heed your instructions.
Martin,
Thanks for all your insight.
At the moment I have about 80% in precious metals and the rest in various personal picks for shorter term swing trades.
I’m very wary of the market right now and hope to take a position in SDS soon.
Cautiously watching the market.
Darryl.
Is’t it time to go short again? I believe it was sometime last March or April when Dr. Weiss was warning of the next big downturn which was likely to occur in the 1st or 2and qtr of 2010 and that this would be worse than the first. Based on the swings in volume and momentum it would appear that the markets are entering the next phase. I would like to get Dr. Weiss’ comments on this soon. Additionally, I would also like his comments on the state of the financial system relative the trillions of MBS, CDOs and derivitives still outstanding @5% -6% rates which are still leveraged @ 20 to 1 or better. While another pullback or even crash in the markets now would likely push long rates back down in the short term, how long will it take before the piper has to be paid, rates go through the roof and these securities (which don’t have to be marked to market) are under water and take the financial system with them?? Rich
Martin,
The $CRB:$USD graph is in a down trend, until this trend changes will stay in cash as
Australia is very dependent on commodities.
Regards,
John.
The US market is like a kid with a lemonade stand buying his own product and thinking how great he is doing. RPM
Mr. Weiss,
When readjusted want to have China and Brazil ETF’s, China resource stock and U.S.A. commodities stock with one year T-Bill’s and cash. Selling that Janus Balanced fund is key to the move but difficult to execute.
Joseph
p.s. read that the socialists are trying to muscle Brazil – will that have any immediate effect on investment?
GUYS IT REALLY DRIVES ME CRAZY THAT YOU AND LARRY ARE AT ODDS HES VERY BULLISH YOUR VERY BEARISH BULLSHIT YOU HAVE THE BENIFIT OF NEVER BEING WRONG AS I GET MY ASS KICKED I EXITED ALL MY GREAT LONG POSITIONS LAST SPRING ON YOUR ADVISE THE WORLD WAS ENDING COME ON GET ON THE SAME PAGE EITHER WAY
As of 3 weeks ago I am completely out of U.S. equities and may go 25%short with the right price action in the weeks to come.
Martin, thank you and your team for your work.
I’ve tried to get my thoughts into buying some of the various reccomendations sent my way on a daily basis but find it a bit difficult to fully believe in the meat behind the equity movement. It seems we can’t really know what’s going on behind the scenes in any company. What’s more, those running today’s companies are overcome with greed-all of them and their taking out always negatively impacts the bottom line and rob shareholders of their rightful due. After all, corporate earings and resources belong to the shareholders and should not be availabe for use by the corporate executive as they desire. In addition, corporate executives are misleading the public daily concerning the true strength or weakness of a corporation and inside trading is yet the order of the day. So in many instances, (on good news) a stock has moved up strongly by the time the public hears the news and on bad news the same is true in reverse. What can we really believe in in America these days? I’m 72 years of age, have worked as a tax accountant for some 40+years. I was born in this country, my parents were also and so were their parents for as far back as I know and I have not seen such rampant greed and disregard for the spoils due others as I see now. So my method is to hold on to some of the positions I have if they look rewarding going forward; do a lot of option trading (on a good stock reccomendation)-getting out with a 40-50% gain in a few days or a 100% gain in a few weeks, which I have been able to accomplish on a frequent basis. Make no mistake about it, I also have some positions that are down 50-60% but have a time element before expiration that might eventually work in my favor. I have no great desire to project my investment plans five or ten years out. There seems to be little safety in that type of thinking. That type of thinking tends to hold more disappointment than gain. So my focus is to get involved in various investment vehicles such as you indicated above; learn well how to work them; do the math and take my 20% 30% or 50% gain over a short period of time and move on. However, I may have a couple of advantages over others-I am retired (with time to monitor up and down movement) and I can work the math to my advantage. Let’s face it, even 10-15% in a day isn’t a bad return-depending on how much you have on the line. I subscribe to several financial publications and have gotten some winning reccomendations. One I’ve worked over and over again-making as much as 200-300% on the same reccomendation. I haven’t been as blessed with all of them but over time, the rewards from the winners may far outweigh the losses from the losers. I am now endeavoring to position myself to trade currencies and commodities-after I get a good investment advisory service I can believe in. Like in the old days when you were told to diversify your portfolio, nowadays you must diversify your investment vehicles and your information sources.
I put in some fairly tight stop losses last week and since the market declined, I am holding very little stock at this time. When is a good time to re-enter.
Recently sold some equities to protect gains and eliminate weak performers. Equities are about 20% foreign and 80% domestic with some concentration on high dividends. Funds are divided as 63% inside IRA’s and 37% Non-IRA’s. I currently manage about 55%, and 45% is managed by an investment firm using mutual funds. Category breakdowns for total portfolio is as follows:
Equities = 55%
Bonds (Fixed Income) = 16%
Tax Free = 9%
Cash = 20%
I realize this is pretty vulnerable for age 69, but there are stop losses and other mechanisms involved that will automatically pull out of the market under certain conditions. Looking forward to what you have to put forth for guidance.
I wish I could graph all of the above comments. It starts from looking bad to getting worse every day. Using this graph and considering that statistice say that 90% are wrong, my conclusion is that I should be 100% invested in the market. However I’m almost all in cash with very small percentage of 20% in natural resources.
You never once mentioned the commercial real estate crisis. Is this like “waiting for the other shoe to drop”? I get the feeling the market is apprehensive (fearful – of what the Goverment is going to seize or direct next).
find out which stocks the fed and JP are going to toss $ at and buy them
I moved all my equity mutual fund to MMF’s just before the crash. I am 90% in short term notes; 10% energy – and haven’t a clue how to proceed in 2010 and beyond. I do no believe the recovery story being fed to us. Furthermore, the U. S. debt situation is a runaway and I don’t see any way to handle this debt level short of tax increases.
What hasn’t been talked / written about is the massive maintenance cost of the “unnumbered” soldiers who have been maimed or who have suffered permanent traumatic stress and will require maintenance for the rest of their lives. I can’t recall the source, but the only reference I’ve seen to this cost was attributed to an actuary who estimated it from $2 – $4 trillion .
I have been taking smaller than usual positions in a greater variety of investments than usual. I intend to take what profit is available for now and return to mostly cash when that seems prudent.
I find it very hard to see any reasonableness in the stock market. I know the USA is printing money 24/7 and the US$ should be virtually worthless, yet the world economies, due to their own vested interests, keep propping it up. Does this make sense? will it continue indefinately? I am about 80% invested in common stocks of Gold ,Oil and Gas, and utility companies. These are mainly Canadian Companies. I do hold some US stocks ie G.E.,J&J,Microsoft and Pfizer. I worry about all of them,but not enough to dump them yet. Why are we seeing Oil and Gas go down? Why is Gold and Silver dropping. The only reason I can think of is Market Manipulation, and I don’t know what I can do about that.
Greetings Martin and Everyone, My holdings are basically 1/3 short term treasuries, 1/3 TIPs, and 1/3 stocks of the type per Million Dollar Contrarian recco’s and of these currently hold gold and utility and will add Sinopec. Have been in and out of FDO for years and hesitate to add again simply from seeing the tired, limited state of the individual stores compared to Dollar General which has expanded into extensive $1-$2 type foods and personal needs with the emphasis on expanded offerings and FDO at least here in northern Michigan has not made that effort. The DG store is far busier and looks more attractive for the same reasons as Claus’s comments about this sector? and FDO in particular. Im interested in reflection out there about Canadian oil trusts, and some confidence building going forward and opinion of the price stability of these of dividend payers of oil-gas production for long term holding.
I live in New Zealand. Together with our NZ manager (Gareth Morgan), right now our family trust is fully in cash but hedged significantly (50%) against the NZ dollar which has become overvalued in the past year. We are 25% USD, 44% NZD, 20% across CAD, AUS, Norway, EU and 11% in gold items (GLD & GDX). We are about preserving capital and purchasing power (important when you live in NZ). We believe that significant further de-leveraging lies ahead in the private sector along with asset price deflation globally. We follow the academic research of Steve Keen (Perth University), and Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who show that EXCESSIVE debt leads to deflation and debt-induced recession/depression. Our trust is positioning for this outcome over the next few years.
We are extremely cautious after having discovered in May that we’d invested a large portion of our nest egg in the fictitous funds of Eric Bartoli aka Enrico Orlandini – very similar to the Madoff fund.
My huband and I are in our early sixties and have our retirement monies in cash with a small portion in resource stocks. We have been devastated by this loss and betrayal, but are determined to remain hopeful.
We’ll be very interested to see what you have to say in your blog.
Us stock market is a scary place these days. Emerging markets like China and India still represent the best long term potential for me. The question is what vehicle should we use these days to invest in these markets? and what will be the sign to buy against the US market and gain from the down term.
Before I subscribed to your newsletter, I was fully invested in mutual funds. I still have those funds but have added positions in some your individual stock suggestions. To be brutally honest, I’m confused as to where to go from here. I could sure use your guidance. Thank you.
Dear Martin,
I appreciate your help in the past. It has saved our family about 30% of our portfolio by staying out of the house-of-cards stock market for the most part, and finding safety in cash.
I am holding, but reluctantly, 5%-7% of all liquid assets in “American Bullish” vanilla stocks like mutual funds and some tech stock. Figure we’re near the top and dropping. Considering getting out of this stuff ASAP.
Mostly in cash and in some Weiss counter-dollar equities, and foreign currencies, along with with 10%+ gold/silver. My thoughts are “Do we get deflation with loss in gold value and gain in dollar values; or do we get a sort of “stagflation,” with inflation making dollar worth less and still no economic growth in US?” I guess “regular US equities” don’t hold up well in either scenario. Question: In what scenario do “regular US equities” prove their value? Will they help hedge against inflation even though there isn’t a real recovery? Or are they only valuable if we get a real “All American Rebound”
Thanks!!
Wow, I almost ’spamed’ your ad thank the good lord I did not. Just reading some of these peoples testimonies made me feel a little better.
Perhaps, because miser loves company. I truly hope you have some advise for me, I am in a spot that I got myself into.
I am a disabled veteran. I recently (last May 09) received a lump sum settlement from the VA for injuries sustained in Iraq.
I can not work ever again, so this is my ‘big hurrah’, I lost my wife, she is young and has a life to live, I could not blame her for leaving, as I am not the person she married. I gave her 25% of my settlement so that I would feel better knowing that I had helped her more than alot of other guys would have. Plus I still had more money than I had ever had before.
I put the rest in the stock market in July 2009, I read alot and thought I was making good decisions, but I have succeeded in losing an additional 15% of my principal. Thats 6 months and I am in so deep I don’t know what to do, if I sell and get out cutting my losses, I will be losing another 7500.00 and that added to the 15% I already lost, will be 22%.
I can’t bring myself to do it, I keep telling myself, it has to go back up.
But it keeps heading deeper and I keep losing more money that I can never replace. When I read your lead question, I swallowed hard, cause my Dad had warned that I was a sucker for agreeing to give my departing wife 25% of my settlement when she divorced me and then he told me again I was a sucker for putting my money in the stock market.
I am crushed by the fact that I believe I am a sucker; I just could not see putting the money in a Bank savings account, the fees they charged me where more than the interest they were paying me. I wish I had bought Gold and buried in back 40, but I did not.
So what kind of advice can you offer to a real sucker ?
Bennett
I’m holding and considering some reverse ETFs.
I only own two international ETF’s now-one losing, one making small gains. Every time I stick my two in the “Stock” Lake, the values immediately go down. Yes, it is I who creates the down days!!!! I have done this 3 times in the past 6 months, so I don’t trust the market. Even my venture into ETF”s above has just about equaled out to “0″.
Martin, I am invested in precious metals junior mining stocks and some physical silver.
My portfolio started at $8500 and in less than a year the are valued at $17000.
I have been thinking about oil, nat gas and solar?????
Tore
It is difficult to say that the economy is getting better when the stats to back up positive assertions were manufactured with government largess ( read debt). We have more in bonds, cash and gold than the stock market and will stay that way until the economy picks up with out the government amassing more debt. Printing money doesn’t make for economic advancement
I don’t like to buy any stock now,but only SH ETF proshare for the next happening in Aug.The next should be Primeprime which is the sideeffect of Subprime.Cash is king soon.
marin, the market continues to defy common sense.
1] we are printing fiat dollars.
2]our debt levels defy description.
3.]our banks are casino’s not banks.
4]our home mortgage levels are going to explode in our faces later this year.
5]commercial morgages are just about as bad.
6.]unemployment is at 10% or 18% depending on your definition of unemployment.
7]the dollar is doing a rebound in the currency beauty contest–not because of intrinsic value.
8]property values are in the celler and the way out is bleak.
Now with all this good news:
1]1/3 of my invested portfolia is in gold, silver etf’s, gold stks., and some buillion.
2] 1/3 of my invested portfolio is in oil co’s, long oil etf’s –both U.S. and international
3]1/3 of my portfolio is in cash.
I purchased more silver today.
If I sound defensive, I am. I pray for all of us. thanks, harry
I am in the camp of modest holdings and a quick sell triger finger. I think the market is weak right now
The stock market is like being in a poker game. If you know your odds you might make a bit of money. But then there is the house’s cut. Now in the real market just what is the equivalent of the house. No it is not the spread or the broker fees. Rather profiting like the “house” are the hedge funds, derivative baskets etc that are constantly sucking money out of the “pot”. In many cases without any risk at all. Thus much of the money that the average investor throws in the pot is never to be returned. If the market used to climb at say 10% per year before derivatives and the like it is only reasonable for the climb to be lessened or even no longer be a climb. What we average investors need is an exchange with a set of equities that cannot be shorted, options not allowed, no baskets of stocks or indexes or the like. More like things were before bonuses became to be in the billions. Let the hedge funds fight over their own money not over ours. I think I read in one of the respondents that Chile operates much the way I describe.
Also it should be noted that when Japan allowed derivative trading thir stock market tanked.
Finally I say give Obama a chance. Kudlow and Bush had us on the ropes when they had a chance. Also limit the terms of senators and the house to two.
I have 35% in equities which I follow with an eagle eye. Rest in cash or cash equivalents.
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Andy, I agree that the casino-like structure of big Wall Street investment banks and hedge funds is absolutely wrong. As to U.S. presidents, the time is ripe for one to step up and declare, from the first day in office, that he or she will be a one-term president, and then proceed to do what’s right for our long-term future, regardless of the near-term political sacrifices. — Martin
Follow stocks? What happens if a destructive terrorist attack happens? How do I protect myself?
Maybe dividends stocks? Dividend paid are higher than an in- the-money leap? Net higher than a CD?
Inflation or deflation? US Currency or Foreign companies? How do I put all these fears into some kind of investment strategy?
Bill
The trend of the US and EU markets are down, and will remain so for many months. Any bounce in the DOW will not exceed 10,730. We are likely to see a DOW of 6500 or lower before mid term elections. Only the dollar will now increase in value. There are many excellent cycles to study to confirm this, the 24 month and 40 month cycles of Richard Mogey’s, HSDent’s indicators, but near term the most accurate are the Primary Wave pattern to Elliott Waves. I especially like the 15 year cycle for the dollar published by Mogey, which clearly indicates the USD will now undergo gains over many, many months to come. So, watch carefully the mining stocks and bullion positions as well as all commodity plays! We made a Primary wave 3 down shift a week ago this past Friday, and the markets have been dropping quite expectedly since then. But this has been nothing like what’s still coming near term. I expect February to repeat much of last year’s decline, with a bottoming extended into Fall of this year. Monetary easing cannot withstand the $225 trillion dollar global deleveraging (eradication of 50% of the global debt valued in US dollars) process now underway. This, coupled to Primary 3 down Elliott wave, may very well dictate exactly how the markets play out for the next 2 years. I also expect at some point to see a bounce up from Primary wave three down, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes sideways for the most part, and then a final collapse into Primary wave 5 down, when we could easily see a DOW of 2000 or even much less. this is a once in a life time event, and that could retrace DOW prices all the way back to the DOW averages during the 1930’s.
I am currently retired. My retirement “nestegg” currently is invested as follows: Domestic Stock Funds (Medical Equip & Consumer Staples sectors) 3%, Gold Shares 2%, Foreign Stock Funds (China, Canada, etc) & ETFs 10%, Intermediate & Short-term Bond Funds 35%, Short Term CD’s, MM, & Cash 50%. As my 3%-4% CD’s continually mature, I am always looking for new opportunities to stay above water and have recently been leaning toward the Bond Funds as a result. Thanks to the Weiss Research team for your perceptive market analysis and investment opinions during these very difficult times!
Looking for direction in this market. I am retired with a sizeable account that I manage myself. Mostly stocks and ETF,s.
etf
Martin: You and Larry often recommend GLD and SLV as the ETFs of choice for gold and silver.
We are also interested in ETF Securities’ ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares SGOC and ETFS Physical Silver Shares SIVR as alternatives which are based in Europe.
In addition, we are considering holding gold through goldmoney.com in London and Zurich.
We are doing due diligence; the ETFS and goldmoney.com folks seem to be legit, well managed and delivering what tey promise. Could you comment on these as alternatives to GLD and SLV?
Many thanks, Henry & Ellen McCown
My opinion is that you can not keep printing money as a government to stimulate a economy. Sooner or later the true reality will surface and the value of currency will be almost worthless pieces of paper. Also I feel that when this happens Stocks, bonds etc. will be the same. My opinion is if one has a tangable asset such as gold,silver, food, tools,skills,etc then at least you have something of value to someone to barter,trade for something that you require. I can not see the printing of more money to stimulate the ecomomy’s of the world to last much longer before the SHTF.
I have been following your recomendations, but that prevented me from entering the stock market early enough ,after March of 2009, to benefit from all the gains the stock market had since then. I had bought some good stocks after the march lows but I had sold them due to your bearish recommendations. Now i’m struggling to catch up because all the stocks i had bought and sold have doubled or tripled since then. I still read your recomendations , but now I try to do my own evaluation before I sell or buy.
I’m fairly new in trading. Also, I need help with stops. How do i use them effectively?
I have lost 50% of my roll over IRA since October of 2008. I’ll appreciate any recomendations for me.
Thanks
Would you consider a portfolio allocation of one third each stocks, bonds and cash appropriate for our current times?
I am concerned that my current portfolio allocation of one third each stocks, bonds and cash might not be appropriate for the times we are in now.
Martin, you are predicting the market to fall again this year. I also think it is going to fall hard for many reasons, but I´ll list only two.
1. The government stopped the economy from going over a cliff with unprecidented stimulus programs. Politically, they can´t continue this much longer, and the jobs they did create are not jobs that will continue and or grow after the stimulus stops.
2. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. For the past 30 or more years we came out of recessions with increased consumer spending as interest rates were lowered and consumers went on spending binges with credit cards, home equity loans, etc. That money is not available any longer. So the jobs that spending created will also not be ther either.
In my opinion, corporate earnings will gradually begin to drop and stocks will follow. It may take 2 months or 2 years. No one has the crystal ball to predict that. But the investors that are patient to wait for it to happen will have bargains across all investment classes and it will be very easy to choose investments for the next 10 year period. I am currently 100% in 3 & 6 month treasury bills that don´t pay squat, but if I¨m right, I will be liquid to take advantage of those opportunities . I would not buy any stocks right now, domestic or foreign…….GOOD LUCK to everyone !!!!
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:46 AM
Yes, the heyday of the bailout bonanza is over, but the causes of the debt crisis are far from being resolved. — Martin
I think the bear maybe just over our shoulder and we are not out of the woods yet.
Hello and thankyou for inviting a response to your statements.
Personally I have decided that markets are so contrived by others and that it will be in my best interest to off load and consider other options…ie increasing gold holdings and perhaps buying investment properties.
WE are no longer in control of our financial destiny because of the manipulation of markets and the deceit that exists in the financial arena. So let us be up and doing and take control once more and reward ourselves and not others for their incompetance.
Colleen
Last Thursday, I put 33% into a double short the S&P ETF and was able to put in a stop loss at a profit on Friday, early last week I put 33% into 2 Year U.S. Treasury Notes, and have 33% in a mid term high grade corpaorate bond mutual fund, which I will convert to 1 Year U.S. Treasury Bills during next weeks auction. I was 100% long in stocks from last Spring until this August. I’ve been following Robert Prechter for about a year, so far so good.
Martin, I have approximately 50%invested in the ’safest’ Canadian Income Trusts,
40% Cash
10% gold,GLD,or mining stocks
5%
Stocks are great right now. If you listened to Martin last year according to his book you would have lost thousands of dollars by not buying stocks.. Keep buying stocks…
Martin, I am totally confused on what to do under current conditions. I have stock brokers calling me telling me I’m missing out on the next bull market by keeping so much of my money in cash. On the other hand I have friends who follow the Elliot Wave Theory and tell me I should get out of the market completely because it is going to continue to go down for another ten years! I can not accept zero interest rates with so much of my assets! I am worried about what will happen to my bond mutual funds when inflation kicks in. In summary… I just don’t know anything! I am going to be 71 years old next month and just wish to maintain my net worth.
I am about 2/3 rds invested in stocks and mutual funds. I expect we will have a near term correction. I have very little faith in Washington.
I have a lot of faith in your recommendations. I am considering joining Weiss Capital Management, Inc. very soon.
Martin,
I belatedly took your advice to get out of stocks and was down 8%. My stock portfolio would have fallen another 40% before the turn around. I am currently heavily invested in short term bonds and feel a hostage to Fidelity and the offerings of my workplace 401K. I do not feel comfortable with any of the choices, but short of quitting my job, there is not a good solution. My work place in manufacturing fell victim to a series of RPP management teams (Rape, Pillage & Plunder) over the last ten years and at mid 50s I am terrified of loosing my nest egg and my livelihood in one swoop. Thanks for your help & I will keep on reading your columns.
I HAVE VERY LITTLE IN EQUITY STOCKS. WHAT I HAVE ARE GAS TRANSPORTATION AND PIPELINES.
I beiieve the market will continue up…thats not to say their wont be a hiccup or two…but I think the economy is turning and I dont see anything in the long run that will derail that
Would you please help me understand derrivatives . I was of the opinion they were a banking fraud ,insurance scam for the big boys, affording the sale of bundled real estate paper primarily to foreign investors.
Foreclosures are on-going and I think we are in for another big hit .Many ” responsible American “real estate investors are about to finally deside they just can’t justify hanging on to drastically reduced equity carrying for big negatives. I believe many will walk leaving the greedy banks with the keys .
However,I have been hearing about some who are challenging the banks’ rights to foreclose. When they bundled and rebundled and sold many times over , rumour has it the original notes can’t be found and legally, it requires production of the original note in order to foreclose.
Compounding this ( this is where I would appreciate info ) the banks did not suffer losses because of the derrivative coverage?????
In either, or worse , both cases the banks could be hit with a huge challenge.
Martin: You guys have been at what you do for a long time. I haven’t and all I have is tied up in a 401k. I’m in a position to set aside some money now and considering metals (gold , silver ) , oil and or gas. But here’s the rub,
there are so many ways to go, ( stocks, etf’s and direct possession ), and so many companies. My problem and reluctance is I don’t know who to trust. I know you can’t publicly recommend but would you give me two to three
companies you trust or recommend. I trust you.
Older people & many others would simply like a fair return on their investments i.e.4-6%.
Is there a safe way to do that in today’s economy? TIPS?
Investing in America is good! Find a bellweather dividend stock and invest in resources, oil plays, gold, silver, copper, and coal stocks. Good Luck and remember its about the long term.
I am so confused about the market.
This is a crazy time.
Gail
All stocks will lose ground this year. Washington and Obama have made this inevitable. There is to much uncertainty about where are we headed has a nation. Is Congress Markist, Is Obama ? Will people stand up and say We are not going to take this crap anymore ? Will free markets and Capitalism come back, tax cuts ,jobs and real economic stimulation policices or socilistic agenda continue. PC will destroy us. We must be free or it will all tumble to Thunder Dome. Then it won’t matter what you own. Government theives or real theives will take it.
In the l930s huge numbers of investors lost faith in the trustworthiness of Wall Street and the markets, and once out, they stayed out. I believe that when a few more people get clobbered in the markets today, the same thing will happen. I have a few stocks to play with and keep my hand in, but nothing I’m really serious about. I’ve paid off every debt, cut expenses, pay for health insurance, bought a cemetary lot for the distant future (I hope), stay active in politics, church, and community affairs, and try to urge others to do the same. My investments are in things I would have made regardless of what the markets do. I also heed most of the Weiss advice.
Hi Martin,
My feeling is to tread lightly and with great patience. If I was holding US stocks I would probably get out and look elsewhere. I don’t mind the cash sleeping for awhile even if not currently earning.
Can’t wait to hear what you have to say.
Are you planning to evolve a more powerful tech on timing and allocation? If so you have my undivided attention.
Martin,
I believe we are near the top in this long term bear market rally. After this pull back stocks could go higher by 10 to 15% but then we set up for a big big big reversal. We could be at the start of the reversal and resumption of the bear market now.
But Mr. Market has a way of fooling the maximum number of people when the least expect it. So my forecast is a pull back of another 5% or so then and run to about 1250 or 1300 on the S&P. This will suck in all the remaining retail investors who are sitting on the sidelines in cash or extremely low interest bonds. Then the market will retest the March lows (670) and put the final bottom in.
The dollar and treasuries will rally in the short term as the market finishes its correction then the dollar will resume its long term decline (the world is finally figuring out we are broke and have no hope of repaying our debts unless we turn dollars into pesos). Gold will finish its consolidation and resume its march upwards as the dollar falls and falls and falls.
As far as China and other emerging markets like India and Brazil are concerned, I feel they will be better long term investments (3 to 5 years or longer) than the US market. We still have a lot of deleveraging to do in the US and eventually will have to raise taxes or face a dollar collapse.
Looking forward to you sage advice. I have been and continue to be very impressed with the team of financial advisors you have assembled.
I try not to think about the American nightmare but it still keeps me awake. I lost a great deal of money in the recession and I don’t know which way to go. Please help me!!!\
Gail
I CAN’T BELIEVE WHAT IS HAPPENING. LOVE YOUR EMAIL’S
GAIL
I am diversified, but only high interest bearing U.S. stocks. Foreign currency bonds. Gold and silver overweight. Treasuries a few years out. Foreign ETFs. I have no idea where we are going. Don’t trust this economy. To be fully diversified I think I should buy lottery tickets on a regular basis!
Henry Toledano
Most stocks are way overvalued with their current price having no connection to their earning capability or earning potential, other stocks are potentially undervalued but there’s a huge peril American investors face, the peril of choosing correctly and playing in a “rigged game”, choose correctly and win while everybody else loses and you MAY get rewarded with a huge tax confiscation which combined with inflation may turn into a loss-you’d do better keeping it in a matteress, choose poorly and you lose your investment or a large piece of it.
Not much of a choice-heads you win & they take your money, tails you lose & they take your money.
With revenue and spending realities combined with public policy, immigration demographics and mob rule democracy, picking the correct class or even investment wont matter, you’re better off “living for the moment” with zero savings as a matter of public policy instituted by our government, all investors in the future will get penalized with taxes and losses of already accumulated & paid for benefits, both of which will far exceed any benefit you may have received from investing.
This isn’t speculation, this has already occurred, savers & investors have been punished and the govt has far more “punishement” planned for savers & investors in the future.
My 46 year old college buddy liquidated his IRA & 401Ks & spent the money on vacations including a Thailand sex romp.
I’d like to say he was foolish & shortsided but my guess is his lack of assets will be a greater benefit in determining future for entitlement benefits.
American investors are basically cuckholds to the immigrant agenda, investment is a waste of resources that YOU WILL GET PUNISHED FOR.
…..meanwhile the state plots to slash benefits to savers & investors while ruminating about how to encourage more savings & investment while they dish out more punishment.
Its gonna be funny when people already retired & receiving Social Security & medicare benefits START LOSING EVEN MORE BENEFITS AT THE HANDS OF YOUNG SOCIALIST IMMIGRANT VOTERS.
Well, Martin, I’m taking most of your Contrarian advice. I hope it is money well spent. You are supposed to be the professionals. I’m betting the farm on you guys. Thanks!
We invested mostly in “upstart” green companies.. hoping to help the companies get on their feet, and eventually, pay us a bit for our “faith” in their companies. The more I read of all the “games” played in the market.. .it is depressing. “Bets” that the market will go down??? How is that helpful to making a stronger economy (country)??What happened to the “good ole days” when you invested in a company, gave them your hard earned $$, and hoped they did (what they do best) a good job of making their business grow, and then shared the profits with those that invested in them??? I have that sort of “faith” in the green companies… ESLR, PWER, SOLR, FSLR,STP, etc… jtk
I believe that the US stock market will probably stay in an average neutral position with some small ups and downs but will move mostly sideways. I also believe that foreign stocks especially China, Brazil, India and even Vietnam will probably have strong gains.
what is your take?
martin; i have much of my retirement in a variable annuity with major life insurance co. until last week i thought i was doing well with mutual sub-accounts. i have allocations in commodities, oil & gas, small cap fund, large cap fund, china-india fund, a tech fund & and a blended fund of stocks, bonds, etc funds. please give your take on my choices & advise.
After reading thru all the above comments, I think I can get the best bang for my buck by investing in Catholic Charities. I can’t trust my own government anymore, so if I can’t trust God to take care of me, who can I trust? Someone with both feet on the ground and looking to the future. Thanks and good luck to you.
Martin
This past week the Dow,Nasdaq,S&P 500 all turned down braking the up trend they have
been in since March. I have no fath in our goverent at all. This upsets me a lot ,Washington
and all the Politians seem to want to take over everthing. But looking back to the thirties and
in the eighties when a bobble broke we had to deflate. In the eighties it took farm land from
$4000/ acre to $1300 / acre this is 66% loss this put a lot of farmers out of business.
The housing has to do the same thing. When we deflate everthing has to deflate. This includes Gold, and Stocks. Cheep interest, lowering bank loaning standards, to much debt has caused this and more debt and lower loan standards will not cure it. A bank can be full of money to loan but if no one wants to barrow the money stops. Money velosityhas drop badly ,
savings rate has increased. This tells me the people have changed their wayes. they are worried about their jobs , future. I think the place to be is in cash. I would injoy your thoughts thanks again GH
I’ve bought several thousand shares in Jayhawk Energy, and I have watched it climb and descend rapidly. Though I heard about the potential for great profit on your web telecast I am beginning to wonder if this was agood investment or not. though the stock market seems to be gaining strenght overall in some cases it is falling short. I expect a rollercoaster ride for the foreseeabe future.
I am a small investor. I have $10,000 in ETF,s and $25,000 , most of which is 2011 puts in IMM Euro Dollars
Currentl Spit
Gold & Silver 25%
Cash; US$ 30%. AUS$ 25% STG 5% EUR 10%
Stocks 5%
All this talk about alternative investments is very frustrating. I work for one of the largest US corporations. I’m forced to use the companies 401k for the bulk of my retirement investments. It isn’t a bad plan, but it’s restricted to only index funds – large cap, mid-small cap combined, foreign stocks, total bond fund, and money market. Many Americans are in this boat. There is NO gold! There is NO currency! There are NO reverse ETFs!
Thanks for your insight. I am sitting on the sidelines except for a few chinese stocks.
The goverment is so corrupt, that they minipulate everything, from stock markets to precious metal markets…..U.S. dollar, everything that they can . For anyone to ignore the chain of events that have taken place since 9-11 -01, is insane! Pay off all your debt, from your house, to your credit cards, car loans, everything. if you have any cash left after eliminating your debt, buy necessities that can be stored for future use, dried food, canned food, powdered milk, dried beans, pasta, then buy things you can barter with, seeds, bullets, flour, salt,pepper, yeast, canning jars…… then buy gold and silver, coins, bullion, anything physical, (80% of your net worth) not etf’s and no paper! Everyone should have a water purifier, water purifing tablets.
Then with the remaining 20% of your surplus of fiat money, then look to Weiss research for further instructions! Personally, I think China and India would be where I would gamble my fiat money that I have left!
I have never been a dooms dayer, but after the bribes, lies, and taxpayer theft I have witnessed in the last 2 years, I am changing my stance, dooms dayer I am. Surviver I prefer to be called. Boy scout motto”Be prepared” It’s pretty simple. If you will lie, you will cheat, if you will cheat, you will steal, we are living with lieing cheating theives, disguised as politicians, that are supposed to be working for average americans, the voters. That not happening! “Be Prepare” !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hello Martin, I currently have about 20% invested in silver bullion, gold ETFs and energy, utilities and medical stocks for the dividend following the recommendations in the Dividend SuperStars from Nilus Mattive. The 80% is in cash.
Martin, I have enjoyed reading and have had your subscription in the past years. The market coverage you offer is broad based and timely. If we take a snapshot of the condition here in the USA , the picture at best, could be described as treading water with no land in sight. Stock markets as a long term investment, forget it. Day trading the hot news does work, short of that P/E’s , dividends , EPS, no bargains there. What matters is sales ( revenue ), Top line growth is what you need in a stock. Expansion is relative to costs, and is deceiving at times for analysis. If a company expands their operations, but the year over year customer count and average ticket purchase doesnt improve , what have you accomplished? Ive seen sales continue to improve over several years while customer counts erode, because the company raises prices on the products. A recipe for going out of business. Futures thats where the big money is made, Forex,Bonds,Metals, etc if you know the manipulators. Annuities, they have been around forever, just like the companies that underwrite them. If they stay in business you are ok. I Bonds indexed against the inflation rate , always stays ahead, if the real inflation rate wasn’t massaged. Real Estate, should be at bargain prices, (residential) not reflected in the prices I see in the mid-atlantic area, besides as an investment that would be dollar denominated. I can go on and on with reasons why the picture is grim.So what helps us see improvement? Employment, positive attitudes, real sales growth, reported long term indicators turning positive, dollar strength. WHO and WHAT is trustworthy to cause me to spend 500,000 dollars or a million or any amount for that matter on the future of a country’s economy that is peppered with illusion. Perfect example: Standard IRA’S, when first established, were the greatest vehicle for investing since sliced bread. I remember debating the concept with my dad over 30 years ago. The strategy was simple and incentivized by the government. After 30-40 years of quality,careful, and disciplined regular contributions, and investing, one would have between 500k and 1 million accumulated for retirement withdrawls. The deposit per month and the interest applied would decide your outcome. I simply said to dad where is all that money going to come from? Lets do the math, 1 Million people with 1 Million dollars in their accounts is 1 Trillion dollars. There are 80 million of us baby boomers out there. Lets be conservative and say only 25% have been faithful to the ira concept. 20 million ira’s. each valued @ 1 Million. Lets say those accounts were only worth 500k. Thats still 10 trillion $$$$$. Maybe they were only worth 250k = 5 Trillion. That sounds reasonble. OK, 5 trillion dollars worth of what? None of it is real money until you cash out. Guess who beat you to the bank? Oh and another thing you most likely will not outlive your withdrawls, which are taxable at the lower rate because of your age and income level. So what happens, you die and most likely your children inherit the ira and its manditory withdrawls at their income tax rate, at least 10% higher. SIGN ME UP. Forget about the estate tax levied by the fed and state, if the net worth of the estate is over the lawful exempt limit. So I ask you Martin how do we stay ahead of the serf mentality that prevails over us disguised as investsments.
Martin,
I don’t like treasuries or mutual funds. No question that interest rates will increase along with our national debt as well as servicing same..people talk 12 trillion. I had to figure out how many zeros 12 trillion consisted of–ask people and 99/100 cannot tell you! What one wants to talk about is Obamas wild spending–the 12 trillion is like peeing in the snow. I expect out national debt to exceed 16 trillion! No one wants to talk about it Either way, I am heavily invested in American stocks, both domestic and those that derive significant income from overseas operations. I have a fair amount of various financial holdings-I’m watching the Messiah “screw” with that one. All tolled
i have increased my overall portfolio from 35 stocks to roughly 80 feeling the variety gives me good balance! I still like China although I’ve reduced some of my holding there. I frankly expect 2010 to be a banner year!
I am leaning to more of a depression type scenario as of this moment. Fourteen trillion in debt and rising. Commodities starting to decline. Hope I am wrong.
Introduction: How did we get here?
2008 was worse in many ways, money too loose. The similarities to 1928 are many. What are the direct causes of the panic of 2008?
Many of the numerous businesses of the twentieth century have been destroyed, due to high taxes, government hurting not helping.
The rise of the use of credit for payment and the demise 1. of hard money and 2. small entrepreneur 3. reduced liquidity requirement, as debt replaced money.
The resultant, largest cause during the last few years is EVA (economic value added) has been going down or becoming negative. This has been due to large government, high taxes, increasing operating costs, and capital costs going up.
Body of content: the same people who killed the dollar and loosened up debt as a basis for wealth, started interferring with the 1. credit, banking, and loan sector 2.private auto industry 3. hospital and health sector (soon the insurance sector) =
strictly prohited by the United states constitution for the federal government (powers of congress and federal gov.) claim that they were (are) looking for a cure. To several government people looking in the mirror would show them the cause of our current economic problem.
Conclusion: Wealth is created, was created, by is EVA (economic value added); creating the most value for the lowest cost. Anything that adds costs without increasing ROI & ROA (return on investment, assets) will sink profits. Government can kill commerce per Galbraith and Keynes and Freidman….
Where am I invested: majority is in nuts and bolts (Hillman of Cincinatti), the rest in in Oil stocks. Based upon ROI and ten year break-even without any capital gains.
This IMHO is not a good time to invest in stocks unless you are an experienced day trader. I believe we are in for a sizable correction after the government stops artificially proping the market up. Government created Trillions, but money is not going into the real economy creating jobs. Inflation will be the only solution outside of an outright default. Therefore I see gold and rare precious metals to be a secure bet for those over 55.
For the young and venturous, sell out now and wait for the next big downturn to get back in.
with a some of two hundred k we have 117 k in cash 50 k in a world bond. loans money to goverments & insatutions around the world (fkln temp). the rest is in stocks & etfs your group picked. is this too much in one investment james
Recently, I bought a home near the ski area, my third home. I made a good buy on a first rate foreclosed home on 1.5 acres in almost perfect condition. The house is an asset that I can use, unlike stocks or gold, I can sleep in it. The only worry that I have with a house in a cold area is keeping enough propane in the tank so the pipes do not freeze when I am not there.
Investing in stocks and mutual funds, in my opinion, is a way to lose control over your money. By buying stocks, or mutual funds,l you are turning over your money to an unknown entity and allowing them to freely decide how to use it. It is difficult to determine if the company is cooking the books, and/or completley dishonest. No thanks, at least I can sleep in my real estate. Of course, prices may drop further, and it may turn out to be a poor invetment, but I will take my chances.
I also have invested in gold, by keeping a respectiable amount of capital in cash, I am flexible. I also have investments in some mutual funds and did have invetments in a ETF specializing in municipal bonds. I expect hyper, if not high, inflation and belive that the real estate market will rocover in five to seven years. Once again, at least I have an asse that I can use–a place to sleep!
I’m not sure about US stocks but it is true that they have some value….they may go up or down depending on the state of the economy. People are looking to increase their wealth by investing in the market betting on the market rising or falling, I myself am surprised by the market moves up and down so rapidly. I’m investing in hou, an oil etf. Right now I think it’s time to buy but I’m not sure, is this a low point?
I am a retiree and safety of my funds is a priority. I have lost many times in stocks so that I am about frozen when it comes to making decisions. LThat is where I need help .
I do not trust the US dollar so I bought gold when it was cheap and now buy silver with my paychecks. This was against anyone’s advice here at Martin Weiss but I am
40% in gold
30% in silver
25% in stocks
3% in bonds
and 2% in cash for reserve spending.
Have finally gone all cash as of today. Market action looks like a sick patient making last gasps for air. Will hold for a major downturn then decide what and when to re-enter. May hedge with a small position in SRS or similar ETF. Worried gold and miners will suffer in a nasty correction as before. Remember all boats sink when the tide goes out.
So far I don’t have a lot of faith in this current government we have.
I don’t know what they will do, so I can’t 2nd guess what their actions
will do to the market. I know, not neccesarilly a good way to invest.
But also, I’m seeing another war possibly breaking out in the middle east.
With that I’m currently 100% cash, even though what is in my 401, thats
also in cash, the various funds, they have, increased by 25% to 30% just
in the last 1/4 of 2009. I could have done quite well by my being in one
of a dozen in their funds.
So I’m still cash, but watching closely and probably will take some positions in
oil and precious metals after this market goes down if it does. As to any other
class of stocks, I don’t have a clue yet.
Don
Dear Martin,
This bear market rally has been a confusing & rough ride for me. I’m naturally pessimistic. I look at the fundamentals and say this thing can’t continue, it’s a house of cards bought and paid for by the fed. I rode the first wave of the rally through July (invested in Techs and blue chips, Lg cap & Sm cap mutual funds) , got scared at the first correction and got out. Realized my error jumped back in. Back out again in late August and stayed out convinced it was all going to fall apart any day now. The only money I’ve made since then is in precious metals (physical, gold & siver ETF’s, gold stocks). I shorted the DOW, Nasdaq, Russel 2000, & Financials a few times too using inverse ETFs and got burned (some I’m still holding). One thing I’ve learned…don’t bet against the FED! I believe in natural resources, I believe in China , I believe the Fed is going to keep printing $ until they inflate away our debt, and I definitely believe I don’t know where this market is going. But I do think our poor economy is a sick patient on life support and sooner or later the plug is gonna get pulled.
I think that US stocks have a high probability of of being a sucker bet with all sectors involved due to their high PE Ratios relative to those in the past.
My opinion on a jobless should be self evident because the only money I see being made is through debt instruments which is only serving insiders. We are still a fiat currency that is doomed without a middle class or the oppurtunities that our educational institutions should be preserved !!!!!!!!! Playcating the special interest groups, bribes, and kickbacks have got to end. The people who have made this financial mess have just been re-arranging the deck chairs. The Federal Reserve is unconstitutional and must go. The only way I can see out of the financial crisis would be more community based self interest.
I believe the Bear market rally is soon to run our of gas because Government just can’t keep pumping it up; or can they? If unemployment would improve dramatically then I would hedge my opinion. China buying “cheap” resources now will make them not cheap soon and then!!!
I am only slightly (20%) invested right now and missed most of the 67% dow gain–Oh Well. At my age and retired I can’t afford another crash fully invested.
I am lucky enough that I can live on my income and don’t have to have money from my 401K, and IRA’s.
Martin,
AS of this morning (01-26) was fully committed to stocks.
Was spread across many sectors, pharma, energy, industrials
etc. which worked pretty good until last Tues. when Obama
messed everything up again. This morning I began to lighten
up considerably as I began to suspect that Obama will once
again mess things up tomorrow night by attacking the banks
once more. Was considering whether or not to lighten up more
tomorrow but haven’t made up my mind yet. Plan to see what
the market is reacting to in the AM and proceed from there. That’s
where I am as of now. I appreciate the help. Thank you.
Joe
Dr. Weiss and all,
The whole world of investing has been tumultuos for the last decade or so.
I’ve been a real estate investor since 1963 or so….. tried picking some stocks
related to alternative energy during Carter’s pres. Failed to the tune of 20 cents on
the $$ or so. Put money in American Funds for IRA….thats been good. Learned about
commodities and their options and various spreads and constructions over 6 years or so
and only lost about $12,000 over the years learning that the sellers were the winners
90% of the time. Had a good couple of lessons on greed ….had 2 hog options contracts that were up $1600. going into a long weekend which I lengthened and
found out that the pigs quit flying and moved 3 limits down…came out $400 ahead…
I was waiting for them to top $2000. and then pull the trigger. Made about $900 on a gold platinum “seasonal” spread….put one on 3 months later that had an 87% probability of success. Found out the true difference between “bid” and “ask” prices.!!!
The guys in NY got away with$5000. of my money there!!! All in all it was quite the rollercoaster and fun. Never dared try a naked spread though….but may now that
I have the funds to absorb a loss! Not really.
The real estate built my retirement. Looking back after withdrawing from a loose
partnership with a relative on a property 2000 miles away and 4 trips there and back
I actually wrote down our consumated real estate deals chronologically which were done
while Joan raised our kids and I worked as a structural engineer.
We actually owned or bought and sold and still own some of about 35 properties over 30 years or so. The income producing properties which were originally all fixer-uppers provide us a comfortable retirement now. Two properties we developed new are doing well for us.
I “lost money on one real estate investment in 1983. I replaced it in the down market at
that time with an equivalent investment so did not really lose anything.
Bottom line is that we’re good with real estate but are having our equities
handled by a professional manager. Even so, the market volitility raises some fear
as I think it should…but the obvious reaction of “yank everything” and go into cash
appears to be counterproductive and more “herdlike” than not. So….I’ll
probably get caught ” with my pants down”.
Bottom line is that its all fun if pursued with “joi-de-vivre”!!
Its All been Fun for me…can’t say us because I’m balanced by Joan who
is very adverse to risk and truly a good partner.
Norb
Martin, It all depends on which stocks you hold. Here in the USA my personal outlook to what’s coming is very grim. The only bright note is energy stocks and the race that has began to come up with the newest alternative fuel, or the further development of previous abandoned plans in alternative fuels. I agree with you to load up on inverse ETF’s just in case. The other play is currency and if you are not in it now it might be too late to make adjustments if the market goes south in flames.
Martin Weiss Reply:
January 29th, 2010 at 9:47 AM
Yes, R.T., I definitely favor inverse ETFs. But as with any investment, don’t go overboard. More so than ever before, you need a portfolio that is
• spread out over the five major asset classes (domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, gold, other natural resources and currencies).
• has a solid, scientific, basis for determining when and how much to allocate to each
• can also bet against key asset classes in major down markets.
— Martin
Gov spending out of control, recovery seems to be slowly progressing but i don’t trust the numbers coming from politicians. The while thing is a house of cards waiting for a breeze if you ask me. Only job gains have been in gov. I have few stocks, mainly commodities, oil, gold, lithium and an inverse ETF. I’m retired and can’t afford to loose principle.
Since we have had a recent 67% runup in stocks and since mid term election years historically haven’t been the best time for equities the following are my personal thoughts: I plan to wait equities out until one of the following happens before investing: We hopefully have a 20% correction in equities or immediately after the mid-term election as long as we have had some type of correction by than I than hope to invest as follows: DIA 10%, SPY or PRWCX 10%, QQQQ 10%, IWP 10%, IWO 10%, EEM or BKF 10%, PRWBX 10%, and PRCIX 30%. I am open to anyones thoughts and suggestions. Thanks, Glen Carpenter
I believe it’s always a good strategy to have some investment in the stock market. My portfolio is moderately balanced, following the Schwab Portfolio model. This includes stocks, bonds, mutual funds in both, and a more than recommended percentage in cash and cash-related investments (over $100,000) out of a $1.2 million dollar portfolio.
I have committed 50% of my Equity Fund into the Australian Market.
I have put my investment fund into the Resource Sector, embracing Iron Ore, Base Metals viz. Copper, Zinc and Lead, Oil and LNG. and Uranium and Gold. I have avoided Banking and Industrial Stocks at present.
The Elliot Wave analysts are calling for a BIG correction or crash.
Now, they may have been not so accurate on their timing and price, but their direction has always been right.
Daily MACD rolling over bad in just about ALL the stock indices.
Weekly MACD also rolling over.
Low Volume on up days. High Volume on Down days.
Besides, if the Powers That Be had to decide between the equities or Treasury markets to save – they will save the Treasury markets.
Thanks to you I got out of everything in the summer of 2008. I’m still out except for gold, silver and gas stocks. So I would say 40% invested 60% cash. I’ve done well with the 40% invested, but am starting to get nervous again. Don’t want to lose my gains.
I pulled everything out of the market months ago. The economy looks bleak long term.
I only see disaster everywhere I look. I am a real estate investor with hundred,s of rental properties. I have invested a large amount of cash in the housing market over
the last 24 months. I only buy REO properties direct from banks and mortgage companys with cash, so I purchase houses at a great discount. I would like to invest
in another area because I truly believe the idiots running this country will eventually
have to raise taxes on investment properties which will cause problems long term. It
happened to me in Michigan the last couple of years. The investment property taxes
in Michigan are scandalous and I am afraid it will begin to happen in other areas.
Martin: It appears that Washington is insaine: On the left Great Great Grandfather is Karl, on the right it is Herbert, in the middle they just don’t know where they are going. There is no easyway out of this mess. Debt in the form of a Gov. ponzi and high unemployment as the result will have a lasting negitive effect. Where am I: Dirt, W. Texas, N. Oklahoma, S. Kansas, S, Nebraska and C. Iowa and whats under the dirt. Gold, silver, platinum & copper(will short copper shortly). Energy: CAM, PTR, PBR, SLB, RIG, SGY & JYHK. MLP’s EEP, KMP & MMP. Royalty Trusts: MVO, PBT, MTR & HGT. We all balance our check books, ok real productive GDP and spending is impossible ever to bring in balance. My worst nightmare looking at the here and now is a sector deflation and with a sector inflation event happening in the same time line. I wrote papers ten years ago about derivatives and the effect of the air monies gererated by this practice. Just can’t sustain a real economy with air money.
Happy trails gentlmen jjw
Martin, I agree with the astute recommendations your team has been making.
The current administration is not fiscally or monetarily responsible. I have a deeply patriotic spirit but realize there will be tough times ahead. I try to invest for short, medium, and long term time frames. For the short and medium periods I have the contra-dollar mindset of gold coins and ETFs, natural resources ETFs, Asia and China-based stocks, forex spot tradings and currency-class ETFs, Dow and T-bond inverse ETFs. For the long term retirement (I’m 35 now) I do feel “relatively” safe with US based big cap dividend stocks for compounding growth. However, I always wonder what should I do more?
I believe the ultimate lesson learned from the financial crisis was educate yourself as much as you can and to be proactive with your savings and investments and while it is still in our hands to control it!
Thanks your your wisdom.
-Darren
I am bearish on the stock market, and gold, but bullish on the US dollar ….which is probably contrary to your views. When the crisis began soon after Lehman’s failure
and got precipitated during October 2008, you and your team had strongly predicted
and asserted for the Dow to touch 6000, but this proved wrong and instead the markets hit the roof on the high side at the fastest possible speed even though the unemployment rates were going higher.
Well, in my opinion, the time is coming when maybe your initial forecast of Dow reaching 6000 may eventually come out to be true by the end of or during this year.
Inshort, this is what we will end up calling a Double Dip Recession.
Regards,
Kishin Manghnani.
I expect we have hit the top last week or are close to it , maximum 1220-1225 on the S&P and 11, 220 – 11, 225 on the Dow.
From there we go down a minimum of 38% and probably to new lows.
We will see.
Hello Martin and fellow members,
Yesterday, we (my ‘better half’ and I) exited most long positions to lock in gains from the unbelievable rally that had been going on since last March. We’re more than 50% in cash. We went long with the other 50%, or added to positions, in leveraged inverse ETFs that do well in down markets. We bought SRS (commercial real estate and residential), FAZ (financials, banks), TZA (small cap stocks), and EEV (Asian and emerging markets).
My view is that there has simply been TOO good of a party going on for TOO long in the financials, speculative stocks and the Asian bunch. A good bounce after the panic sell offs in 2008 and early 2009 made some sense, especiall for Asia, but the entent of the recovery in stocks is not to be believed IMO. I figure there was simply too much money on the sidelines and that our FED and Treasury folks (pals of Wall Street) may well be doing a LOT of coordinated behind-the-scenes out-of-thin-air money transfers to the big boys on wall street to ‘help’ the markets move up in the sustained unexpected way that it has. I doubt that that nonsense, however well intended, will be able to sustain the market for too much longer.
Too much is hitting the fan now. Scott Brown’s Massachusetts win has forced Obama’s political hand. Now he’s doing, or saying he will do, things that are unsettling the banks, the markets, and investors. His expected baloney pronouncements about wanting to “fight” with investment banks and reduce the national deficits are laugable. Who believes the guy anymore? He is simply no longer credible and the voters know it. Ergo, Scott Brown’s clear win in Democratic territory.
And now they’re talking about pulling back some of the government supported programs meant to help the housing and mortgage industries. The whole picture looks like a portrait for another disaster.
We think it’s timely now to adjust market positions accordingly. All the best to everybody. Keep up the good work, Martin and associates.
–Mike
Virginia
Following my first message of main market index : DXY, just to show you one of complicated calculations result : AAPL : 250 $/share @ Feb 22, 2010.
Good luck with your survey.
Farshid
I rely on you and Robert Prechter. A friend asked me why?
“Because, over the last several years, they “call them as they see them”,
have been on target, and I will stick with them until they “screw up”,
which, frankly, is not something that I expect in my lifetime.
Have been in cash since spring of 2009.
Mohamed El-Arian, the CEO of PIMCO (the world’s largest bond fund at nearly $ 1 TRILLION in assets) said a few months ago, “It is better to receive 1% on a bank account than to lose 1% of your principal.”
Thanks, Martin and staff.
GOOD MORNING. I THINK THAT IF I PICK STOCKS BASED UPON RESEARCH, TRENDS, P/E RATIOS, MARKET CAPS, AND GROWTH POTENTIAL I WOULD LIKE TO TREAT THE STOCKS LIKE A MUTUAL FUND. UNLESS A STOCK SHOWS A PRECARIOUS DOWNWARD TREND, I WOULD STAY IN MY POSITION FOR AT LEAST ONE YEAR. I CAN’T SEE DUMPING GOOD STOCKS BECAUSE OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON ONE DAY OR ANOTHER.
RIGHT NOW, AT $1000 PLUS PER OUNCE, GOLD IS TOO HIGH FOR ME. I WOULD PREFER CASH AND SAFE BUT DULL INVESTMENTS. AS FOR CURRENCIES, I LISTENED ATTENTIVELY TO GEORGE SOROS AND UNDERSTOOD LITTLE OF WHAT HE WAS SAYING. I NEED AN EDUCATION IN THIS MATTER. JANET NADLER
are etf’s the new cdo’s i wonder??
Martin
I look forward to hearing you speak at the Orlando money show.
Up untill last month I had 50% in short term bonds and 50% in Emerging Markets Mutual funds. (I invested in these 2 years ago). The bonds gave me a small return and the Emerging Markets barely broke even. I’ve since moved out of the bonds and pulled some money from the Emerging Markets and invested in various mutual funds: healthcare, high dividends, muni-bonds, Global Sm-Cap equity, mid-cap value and a few others.
I felt the pain of last weeks drop in the market. I have no idea what I’m doing, I’m gambling with my retirement. I’m in my early 50’s and I’m worried my hard earned money will be gone.
Have a good day.
We’re currently on the sidelines, having taken a big hit at the end of 2008. We were too hesitant to jump back in again in early 2009 and missed the spectacular recovery of that year. Now we’re kicking ourselves for not having ventured in at the right time and believe the reports saying the market is overvalued and doesn’t have much upside potential, so we’re waiting for good, credible advice before committing to new investments.
Hi Martin, we have a small portion in stocks & mutual funds with a larger part in bond funds & treasuries. A significant part is in cash ,money markets. It’s not a comfortable feeling to be standing on the blade of a knife -while one group is expressing optimism and the other pessimism.
I am a new subsciber this year and have enjoyed reading, watching the various messages from Weiss Research & related companies. This my first message to the blog.
I’m somewhere between ‘hands on’ and ‘hands-off’ investing. I use Morningstar to research many of your recos.
I use the following allocation: 20% US large cap, 15% US small cap, 20% ex-US, and 15% “other” (which is mainly gold, precious metals and other natural resources including commodity index funds). I use VNQ as my real estate vehicle and consider it part of large cap. I use some of your dividend paying recos as part of US large cap. For part of my international allocation, I use your recos of non US small cap dividend, other no US small cap and non US real estate ETFs.
I don’t use all of your energy or natural resource reco’s as that would add more risk than I am will to tolerate.
I am now 35% cash equivalents. This is recently down from 45%. I am patiently waiting for the Treasury market to blow up before considering whether to allocate more from cash to longer-term bonds…
With all the money I expect to make from reading your publications, maybe I’ll be able to buy a little estancia in the south of Brazil and learn to speak Portugese…On the other hand, my wife is from Chile.
Best regards, Jim Currie
I have a group of 8 diverse actively managed funds that did around 100% from Sept ‘01 to current…while the S&P did around 0%. So you don’t need to actively trade IF you trust your choices, the funds, and the managers thereof. But even this group of funds dropped around -32% vs the S&P drop of -56%….though they have recovered to -5% from the market top. I did bail on these July ‘09 and currently am in a much more conservative group. SHOULD have waited till about now to do this…but hey…can’t say I’m a smart investor. Will say that the funds I choose are carefully chosen…few of them out there. Past the point where I’m willing to trade….asset allocation only.
The question of making money is different than what the shape of the market is at a point in time. I find that the money business develops themes some better than others. The retail investor uses their guidance in making decisions. The US market moves so quick in either direction but it is the money chasing it or leaving it that drives it. So we have some unique economic motors right now globally, some equalization of wealth happening, and, investors salivating between greed and fear of losses. The corporate directions have their foils as we have seen the greed factor results of the recent past, the government self serves and drives us to ruin, and we happily go along with their spins.
I like your analysis of situations and opportunities. The view these anaomlies and positon to take advantage of them at a profit, kudo to you and those that follow. Timing is so important especially in todays markets. Companies may be worth more or less but larger ones generally get through the cycles with wide swings in values in their stocks and other measures taken to ensure survival. Supply, demand trends have their cycles and money can be made.
Global recognition of the factors that drive these trends adn a move away from our “colonial ” view would help others and you do this well, thanks.
With 18% real unemployment , $15 trillion in total debt, the US is going to have a tough time as a country coming out of this anytime soon. I like the global themes, the commodity themes, and, some of the debt themes on the shorter side.
Martin, at this moment I am very nervous about the whole state of affairs in this country. Everyone seem to have gone mad. I am heavily invested in my family and God the all mighty. Energy, Food, Medicine, Gold, Silver, short term T-Bill, Green Technology,Canadian Trust, India, Brazil, China stock.
Martin, Thank you and your staff for your devotion and professional guidance. May God Bless You All.
Best Regards,
Patsy
Holding small allocation of a few index funds. Waiting for the other shoe to drop.
I am in the fortunate position of having a husband whose retirement funds are sustantial. He not interested in taking any risks, but supports me in investing my much smaller portfolio in riskier postions.
I like and am committed to stocks. After reading the Weiss materials I sold all my positions that haven’t budged since thebig fall last year, even though I carefully selected them and they looked good before the crash. I also sold my two mutual funds which were sluggish to say the least.
I retained the four equities that have risen and which pay sufficient dividends.
I have taken the balance of my money and invested it pretty much following the suggestions of Weiss researchers. I’m not struggling with figuring out where the market and the economy are going; I’m happy to follow the lead of the Weiss experts. I now have over twenty positions in water, food, gold, silver, oil, energy, real estate and manufacturing.
I’m very excited to see where this all takes us, and paying close attention to the emails I get every day from Weiss Research. My only regret is that I don’t have more money to invest.
Thanks for listening.
Dear Martin,
I am retired and basically on a fixed income so I am not going hog wild on growth investments. However, I am still about 40% invested in the stock market. Most of my investments are in dividend paying stocks, which include energy, utility and oil. We also have sought the relative safety of GNMA bonds as well as triple A rated and insured Pennsylvania state municipal bonds. Gold funds and ETF gold holding also round out our portfolio. Near term we should be fine, but long term stability has me concerned because of the irresponsible spending of our government and the deliberate devaluation of our nations currency.
I’ve recently pulled out of the US and foreign stock markets and have my money 80% in cash and 20% corp bonds. I guess I’m in the camp with the Elliot Wave people that believe another major wave down is coming next.
But what are the fundamentals that caused the last major equities decline and would be the cause for the next decline? Perhaps it is that the United States and Western Europe have finally out sourced too many millions of quality paying jobs to countries that are paying slave wage rates for this work. This is causing huge deflationary and earnings pressures on the advanced economies that are swamping the inflationary fiscal and monitary policies of their central bankers.
The whole trend of sending quality manufacturing, technical and service jobs from economies that paid workers $30,000 – $80,000 per year to those that are paying $1,500 – $5,000 for the same work (a skilled welder at a Ford plant in China makes $1800 per year today; They are performing thousands of heart surgeries in India for $2,000… how little does all of the medical staff in India make?) worked from 1980 to 2000, but the Global system finally started emploding in 2000. When that recession hit the only way that the US was able to get millions of people back to work in decent paying jobs was to build millions of expensive houses that people couldn’t afford, but to temporarily make these affordable through the mortgage backed security ponzi scheme that has crashed. Now that millions more Americans and Western European people are unemployed I haven’t heard one business executive or political leader lay out an actual plan how they are going to get the 20 million + employed within the next 12-24 months in jobs with meaningful wages.
Instead what I’m hearing from executives of major companies such as DOW Corning, Intel, etc. is how they don’t see any job growth within their companies in the US, but they are looking forward to bringing on line their new plants in China, Vietnam, etc within the next 12 months so they can produce more product with cheap labor at plants that are in the same region as the plants of their customers (LED TV, PC and all sorts of electronics manufacturers).
Earlier this century Henry Ford told US industrial leaders if we want this economy to grow we need to significantly increase workers wages. They did and it worked. From 1980-2000 China, India, etc had a luxury that Henry and the boys didn’t have. They had consumers in developed countries to buy all their product that allowed them to keep wages depressed. This has lead to what we’re battling today. Advanced economies that are shot, strung out on debt and emergening economies without enough purchasing power to take up the slack. Once wages in emerging economies increase ten fold and shrink another 10-20% in ours we can reach equilibrium and the Global economy can start to grow in balance. Until then, I’m afraid much pain lies ahead.
Martin, I would love to hear your thoughts about this.
Dear Martin, I remember in World War II after Pearl Harbor we were afraid we were going to lose our country. I believe we have more things to worry about now than we had then. There is no way to ever pay off the trillions of dollars of debt, the dollar is shrinking, China & the Mid East is expanding rapidly, and our government keeps spending money we don’t have. We keep financing other countries, handing out grants to each Congressman’s district and many more ways of recklessly spending money. Our USA is broke. In the bible it tells where every country will be in the end times (Ez. 38 & 39) and it does not mention the greatest country in the world, the USA. Does this mean that we are gong to be taken over by another country soon? I believe that the best way to preserve a person’s capital today is to invest it in Gold or land, not stock. Bob Hinds
This is a major correction that is happening because of the future,just as it was going higher last few months, now it is headed lower, much lower.
comment: Faith in company reports shattered. see no light ahead until the RISK companies take on with derivatives gets exposure. Want to see quantitative controls on this ‘investment’ activity.
As UK person, find ETF trading hedged about with broker restrictions even for the home-produced selections. Envy the folks in USA for their flexible trading environment.
I think the bear market rally in stocks has topped and we are on the way back down to test the March lows. So… I’m short in my trading account and in short term assets in my retirement account.
I am a business owner and was able to set up a 401K for my company. In addition to the traditional 401K options we also have the ability to self manage a trade account through Thinkorswim.com which allows me to buy any stock or ETF or Forex is I want. I like this idea much better than having a handful of mutual funds that have limited movement in/out.
At this time I am about 70% in cash and 2% in Bonds and 28% in inverse ETF’s and waiting for the downturn to get back in. My plan is to ride the wave up or down.
Martin,
I enjoy your mindset, always thinking, trying to be a step ahead of the curve.. History says that being ahead of Mr Market by default, makes you more often than not, a wealthy contrarian over time!!! I’ve been an Advisor since 1977 and developed these habits as well. I learned early on to follow my gut, read daily, listen and look for trends, good or bad!
Our CLIENT ONLY FUND MODELS reflect just two things; OPPORTUNITY AND RISK.
RISK DEFINED: When the downside RISK exceeds upside potential, move away.
OPPORTUNITY DEFINED: Cheeply priced over sold substaintial long term upside, buy.
As such I am optimistic about US Equities and the Dollar. Yet we are backed off on equities subsantially since last October and overweighed in Bonds Balanced and Cash. Foreign exposure is underweighted, with almost nothing in Gold, Emerging Markets and Real Estate.
US Dividend Based Large Cap Value seems to have the best oppurtunity for solid returns in Equities near term! These equities remain somewhat undervalued, relative to other areas. Healthcare & Utilities should continue to do well now that Cap & Trade and Healthcare seem to be beaten back by conservative thinking.
Martin,
I have only a small percent invested in the stock market – say 5%. The rest is in money markets (cash+). Don’t trust the mkt. at this point.
I have attempting to day trade ES futures, but in spite of two programs and my own modification of indicators (MACD & Stoch.) have not done too well. I think I am too afraid of losing $
and this a.m. got stopped out at the low of a pull back from a good short term trend up.
Any ideas to help?
Hi Martin
I think there are some opportunities in US stocks if chosen with insight. But overall, I think opportunities are better elsewhere. I’m relying on you and your team for guidance.
US stocks a suckers bet? Definite yes. Barrons market lab: new highs vs. lows for last week: NYSE 487 new highs, only 8 new lows, AMEX 46/5, NASDAQ 246/26. Investor sentiment polls highest level of bulls since right before 2007 peak. Insider sales are 14 to 1 purchases. VIX is jumping. Their contributing technician, Michael Kahn, just moved from fence sitter to definitely bearish. Over at Morningstar: markets over/ undervalued chart shows 4 of 8 sectors way over, 3 of the 4 that aren’t are barely under. (healthcare is the only 1 substantially under, and it of course has it’s own problems depending on Congress). Jeremy Grantham estimates the general market is 30% overvalued. I skimmed the other reader comments and several mentioned Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave flashing downturn. Historically stocks don’t do very well in the second year of any President”s term, nor do well in years ending in zero. And you sent an alert to get out. What more does one need?
As to your secondary questions regarding sectors, I agree that getting the sector right can be more profitable than getting the individual stocks right. But this looks to me like a correction that will once again throw out the baby with the bathwater, so macro calls trump sector for now.
Maybe we can all get rich by responding to the above “comment” from Richard Kumbo.
Hi Martin,
My stocks mainly come from previous employers’ 401k.
The accounts are under management by financial firms after I get laidoff. Seems they’re stuck in those companies in such way that I’m unable to manage/reinvest my funds in timely manner to respond to market up and down condition.
What can I do?
Thanks,
Regards,
Chan Tran
Due to a general trend towards market stabilization I personally am currently committed to a common stock exposure of 50 t0 60%. It would be to a much higher level if it wasn,t for: 1) a lack of trust in the current government administration and legislative body to effectively address the monumental issues we face as concerns government waste of taxpayer dollars in every facit under their control. 2)incompetence in regulatory control. 3) A congress who will not pull together for the good of the country but continues with their self serving policies contrary to to any concentrated effort for solutions.
It reminds me of policies nine years ago when facing increasing military threats and escalating government debt the public was not to be concerned or change their standard of living because our leaders had everything under control!!
thank you I,m a retired AF l/col with 27 years of service.My retiremrent pay is good and my only income.My investments are in two areas:90% in gold and silver shares,10%in other areas.I have done well in both areas.What is the future out look for the gold and silver shares? I,m concerned about that area.I would appreciate your advise and comments on this subject. Tkank you Gaylord
Between long term,short term and day trading you have different definitions for sucker. defining sucker also includes expectations of the one vulnerable to being suckered.
since 90% of daytraders loose money and buy and hold obviously is no longer the answer the only thing left is short term trading.
so the question should revolve around not letting yourself be suckered into a stock and looking for it’s turn around if it drops below what should be your sell level. which if it did you just fit the definition of sucker.
in trying to understand most of the dynamics of the market i’m still wanting to know how the fed withdraws liquidity from it.
In the last few days, I have greatly reduced the amount at risk in most of the stocks in my portfolio. I have not completely gotten out of most of these stocks, but have left a little invested in each so that I can more easily track their directions.
yes.there is no transparentcy.brb-k news out after the fact,all insider news comes to me after the fact.like the recent K dropping as a mutual fund lsell out.We do not have a chance.The horse races are like the wall street manipulation and the brick bally hoo is a part of this scam as well.things happen today while we sleepand no poor person has a better than 1-4 to break even if the market is up when he/she needs their money. sincerely.wad
I have no faith in this Obama Gov and am afraid of the present market
Bart
michael sullivan, the reason gold doesn’t seem to act the way it should, is because it is probably being manipulated to keep it’s price down by many forces, like the private central banks of all the industrialized countries and even more by the dynastic modern-day kings of the world, the rothschilds. through their LBMA in london, they actually set the trading price for gold twice a day. does this sound like a “free market”? there is really no such thing today as free markets, the big money forces, as we know, manipulate everything to the hilt, all while exhorting the merits of free markets. we shouldn’t even have people running around on the floors of the various exchanges all over the world–WHAT A JOKE! with the technology we have, computers should just match buyers with sellers, on a first come first serve basis, period. but of course, then the big brokerages wouldn’t have the upper hand, now would they? nobody mentions any of this, because no one is aware of these things.
I started to exit the market in late summer and as of the end of the year am 100% out of equities. In fact I recently took a small short position (2% of my portfolio) using inverse double leveraged ETF’s. With over $55 Trillion of unprecendented dollar denominated debt (360+% of GDP) including $5 Trillion rolling over by 2014 ($3.5 T of commercial mortage, $500B of Private Equity and $1.5 Trillion of Bank debt), there is still a lot of disruptive deleveraging that needs to take place. This can’t be good for stocks.
What do you think about the equity income fund stocks?
Bailed out of US stocks yesterday and into cash. think that the upside gain is small in comparison of the downside risks for next several months, maybe quarters. Had a nice run since March, pleased with the gains. think I will just keep looking at it very carefully now to try to see when it is time to get back into the pool. Thanks Larry !
I am about 40-45% in stocks and am very uncomfortable with the exposure. I am waiting for the market to pick up some (hopefully) and slowly reduce my stock allocation. A corresponding concern is where I put the money, with yields being so low on fixed income.
Judy
Only hold ETF and will get through it with no problem, like ewa, ewt, ewh, and caf. I believe in the end of year, you’ll get 5-16% div. at least.
xiao jie
i am a market pessimist on equities, and have been for a couple of months;
the political spin about ‘we are in a recovery’ is suffering head winds, just as
obamacare suffered head winds; the barely discernible recovery was bought and
paid for by taxpayer dollars to be collected now but mostly in the future, and the
golden goose is vexed and bringing down democratic seats, like the Kennedy Seat,
so that leaves Gentle Ben running the printing presses, and he can not afford to buy
any more :)
Martin Please read my previous Blog to you—- It’s time to put all of your key peoples “feet-to-the -fire” again. All those who write and generate reco’s. should help generate a format chart. — Once the Chart is finished, all should contribute on their own behalf, with Stock reco’s., representative of their best thinking in their particular Arena. All Charts should then represent 100% of their “Ideal” portfolio. Your Clients should then add their own Total Portfolio Amount they choose for mkt. participation and risk. Ultimately, your clients should then have a much better “Yardstick” to answer your question? How would you portion your investment categories of your entire Portfolio? The “best” answers have to and will, come from Weiss Research! Thanks.
My question is…………what do I do now with a portfolio filed with excellent dividend paying stocks such as GIS, MO, IBM, UTX and the like? Do I sell? Do I hold? Do I seel if at a profit and when they tank buy back the survivors? Advice please……..
Thank you.
Martin
Back in April/May ‘09 you supplied us with a 44pg document that included a list of the weakest and strongest banks and thrfts including L & H plus casualty insurers labled -
FDIS’s Call reports of 1/30/09 reflecting data filed by banks, etc on 9/30/08.
Where can one get a more current update on these statistics?
Robert
You continue to tout gold, but you say nothing about silver, which is currently down, and the futures don’t look so good either… What’s your take on silver? Is it being manipulated again?
Martin,
One of the toughest things about today’s markets is the wild gyrations of the government.Massive spending, huge new supplies of government bonds, bailouts, new regulations ,etc. all make rational sensible investing difficult.
What to do? We look to you for direction.
Best wishes,
George.
Investment Strategy for 2010: 40% Cash/Foreign Currency Investments, 20% Gold/Silver Investments, 20% 3-Month Treasury Instruments, 20% Select ETF Funds (Brazil, China, India, Russia, Singapore, Korea)
…………..JM (Carmel, CA)
There are some good American stocks that have the potential to make money by investors thru the combination of increased price and dividend payments. However, the investor must do his / her homework regarding the management of the companies, potential for growth, and ensuring they have an effective R & D / new product development department. Problems associated with this gathering of information is that if the stock is recommended by a reliable firm, one has to ensure that you are not one of the last to hear about the potential – or the stock may have been run up in value and awaiting your arrival / purchase before dropping in price.
Many American stocks have significant potential for profit. Unfortunately, numerous Companies have fallen into the hands of management who appoint members of the board who grant (return the favor) excessive bonuses, inflated salaries, etc. There do exist those honest leaders such as Buffet who work for the good of their companies, their investors and the United States. The country is still the only Super power in virtually every field and still (but who knows for how long) is the standard for comparison for the rest of the world and that includes selective stocks.
I invested 100g in the market and shortly thereafter it was reduced to 40G and is now back to 60G. My economic forecast is for a continuous decline in the average Joe’s
standard of living until the people of China et.al have parity with ours. Then we’ll all grow together. The country has been sold out via alledged free-trade. As I’ve observed the multitudes of empty industrial buildings in my many travels, and now I conclude that all this yammering by government about creating jobs is just so much B.S. The best investment I know would be how to profitably convert all those vacated buildings to another use. If I could figure that out, Warren Buffet would look like a piker. But I can’t.
Where to invest now? Already retired and semi disabled engineer, but not near enough saved to retire on.
Where to invest NOW for max benefits with little regard for safety.
Thank you,
(If I had more to lose, I wouldn’t be so cavalier about safety, but with only $50,000 available, won’t be much worse off without it.)
I would like to put some money in foreign currencies but I would like some recommendations as to which ones. I also know there are some funds with several currencies in their portfolios. I would like to hear more about this.
Right now I am in short term treasury moneymarket fund, cash, money market fund, a little in short term muni fund, and buying stocks in the gas, electric,oil ,water, telephone , and telecommunications area. Any comments?Anxiously,awaitinhyour thoughts ,martin!
would like suggestions about gold,silver, and bRIC choices.
Still have lots of stocks, both domestic and foreign—heavy in the foreign and gas and oil MLP’s. But we are watching the market closely and don’t want to lose the bundle we did in 2008. Have a significant cash position and commodities outside the portfolio. What are you recommending now? Listened to your webinar today and it was insightful and helpful. Many thanks.
Nancy
Gold is going to preform, short term strength in the dollar may cause artificial pressure on the commodity complex in general but it is likely to be temporary. Macro economics and the commodities super cycle will push all commodity driven markets higher eventually as demand grows and supply (finite) diminishes. Peak oil and peak gold are out there somewhere, if not already behind us. I anticipate that clean water will be a big commodity in the future.
While gold has its appeal, other metals may be preparing to outperform: silver, Platinum group metals, and rare earth metals (lithium esp) because of growing tech demand and resumption of car production (catalytic converters and batteries etc) major exports to china could mean big profits for some US companies.
We will continue to use US dollars until countries such as greece and india for example get their books in order. Every time a foreign country sneezes the dollar will strengthen. B.R.I.C. nations are not immune to this as we have seen with China tightening its lending to try and head off rampant growth and the bubble economics like we had with the “W” regime! Such actions I suspect caused this recent correction.
Be careful of foreign plays as political pressure, insurgance, and a variety of other factors will cause extreme volatility. South America may be the safest of the foreign plays, specifically their natural resources, consider their steady social and economic growth.
Safe moves might be in yielded positions primarily in materials and energy. Some ETFs may be worth a look for commodity plays, but producers of those commodities might be safer, since as prices rise their margins get better. Careful of penny stocks, they are likely that cheap for a reason, especially mining. One earthquake or activist complaint could wipe you out.
Diversification is key, manage risk and dont be afraid to take profit. Hedge the dollar with gold, silver or a foreign tech or industrial play. If you buy oil hedge in green tech, bio ethenal will likely catch on before battery, solar or LNG. Buy big tech and hedge in food or consumer staples. Stay out of long term treasuries. Watch P/E ratios specifically in the Big Banks. Use the transports sector and lumber futures as supplimental economic indicators. Use caution when exposing more than 20% or your assets to any single strategy. Know the downside. Use dollar cost averaging, and multiple entry points. Understand what “institutional buying and selling” means and how it affects the little guy. Dont JUST study fundamentals or charts or technicals, As Musashi said, “keep your vision broad and deep.” Watch more than one news channel.
You would be better off paying a tarot card reader than a stock broker. I haven’t met one yet that knows what tomorrow holds. I do all my homework and have made some outstanding calls with witnesses. They want you to believe its hard so you wont try.
I expected DOW resistence at 10,800 and it came true. Aside from bounces and corrections I still doubt it will penetrate much past that level, but it has been higher and since I think the recent stock market rally is driven by bailout money in the financial institutions mostly, they may selloff and short for a while knowing it is a fake rally and unjustified my the fundamentals. Since I do FOREX only, I watch for runs in the DOW to pick my FOREX pairs for short term gains. When fundamentals are absent, the markets are more driven by emotion and do not provide the environment for long term positions. That’s how I see it.
Dear Martin,
In my opinion certain stocks are still worth holding, particularly commodities and energy sectors supplying to the Asian markets inparticular China
Best regards
Tony
US stocks are a no no right now. We are being suckered by the huge hedge funds that have the financial might to manipulate the market while the average investor does not have the investigative network to anticipate those moves. So it is my take that US stocks should be avoided for the time being. I am in the process of getting out of US Stocks with most being a loss that I will sustain.
Also I am at a loss which Chinese stocks to invest in. I look at Tony Sagami’s Asia Stock Alert and I see an ocean of red. I don’t see any other groups being any better at predicting what foreign stocks to invest in.
Martin, what is your take on this and what do you recommend? Do you recommend only gold, silver or cash. It appears it might be the only way to protect what I have.
Regards,
Ronald Thompson
I listened to you very carefully, bought your book on the Ultimate Depression Survival guide, last year, and got out of the market and missed the rally. You were sending very fearful messages in January and February and as such, I got out. I missed the biggest rally ever. Did I misunderstand you, or did you miss the forecast?
Hi Martin,
I have long enjoyed reading your thoughts on the market and find them very valuable in planning investment strategies.
I think an objective look at the S&P 500 weekly chart for the last 12 months will show that we have seen, since 10 March 09, a substantial bear market rally that has been running out of steam since July 09 and has recently broken down through a significant trendline support. A look at the MACD indicator also shows consistent divergence since the initial rebound in price in March 09, to the point where it is now in negative territory again. As to whether this is the end of the rally and the big bear will continue, taking the market below its previous low is hard to say. My strong sense is that it will, and sometime this year (probably by mid year) we will see the S&P retest the 666 low of 2009.
As always it would be good to get your take on this.
Kindest regards and best wishes,
Chris.
I have used the 40 sectors of Dorsey Wright & Assoc for many years, I currently am invested in 26 of the 40 sectors. Approximately 80 stocks or ETF’s. About 15% are ADRs, and a few have more earnings abroad than they have USA earnings. I plan to buy 3 Counter ETF’s if the market continues down. I also have about 8% liquid assets in banks through Scottrade, and about 5% in my local Credit Union shares.
The rally has been a great ride, fueled by government spending. Now, the chickens are beginning to come home to roost. The rally without justification is over. I’m bailing out of stocks tomorrow.
Mr Weiss, I am trying to learn. I got bad advise from my agent and I lost on the first round last year. I am trying to learn as much as I can about finding my way around in the market. My first lesson learned is find a good broker or agent. The market is not going to go the way it did in the “30’s”. The governement which should be “By and for the people” bought out the big Banks debt. Yes it is going to cycle with its ups and downs. Our country is so far in debt that you nor I have any idea as to how much indebtness we really have on the books. I think like your Dad there is money to be made in any game but you have to have an idea as to the rules and how to play your money. The stock market is controled still by big money and I am using you and those under you as to how to play this game.
Thank You for any advice. I know that you have to pay for good advice.
Keep up the good work
Way too early. We are in a deflationary spiral and the $$ (the fiat money of last resort) will be KING for some time.
I am fully out of the market and have been for quite some time. I am in Short term Treaasury bills, as you have dirceted, providing as much return as a tim can, and I have bought a small amount of 90% junk silver. My net worth has increased a small amount, but the reason has nothing to do with stocks or other investments, it is strictly because I am spending less than my taxable income, which means I am “growing my net worth”, but at a very small amount. So, where do I go from here?
One of the biggest problems I find when there is a discussion about stocks is that they are all lumped together. There is a big difference between a high quality dividend paying stock and a penny stock between a blue chip and small cap etc
In bonds they are categorised as
-treasuries
- State and local goverment
- corporates
- Municipals
- High yield
- Junk
These are all bonds but a big difference in quality
Stocks should be categorised as well for discussion purposes
- Dividend paying
- Blue chip dividend paying
- blue chip non dividend paying
non dividend paying stock
Mid cap
small cap
penny stock
crap
Or simply
Dividend paying
Blue chip
Mid cap
small cap
crap
Stocks seem to always be refferred to as stocks in a generality rather than braking it down into quality and yieds if any, or at least blue chip Vs the rest
there is a big difference between the quality and investment merits of the above list
For the average investor the generalty brings on the confusion that stocks are stocks are stocks they are alll the same. and little difference is given to quality
Example in the question ” Do you like US stocks ”
as if all stocks are the same, the question is too general
Gerry
convertables
Short end
Long end
Am hedged in GLD (puts and covered calls) at the moment looking for a short-term pullback to about $1000 or until the dollar’s upward migration is stopped out. The latter looks like it has a bit longer to go. Also, playing FXE short. Martin, I have noticed that the last two GLD price peaks occurred 22 months apart, give or take. Will we have to wait 22 months from the December, 2009 high for the next peak? If so, that would put the next GLD peak period around October, 2011…in the interim, will we have to hunker down for a good sized correction of 20 – 30% or so off of 120, like during the last two downdrafts? What are your views? Martin, in Safe Money, I read that gold prices are expected to reach 1500 by mid year 2010 and the higher 1000’s by end of year…are you standing firm on these price levels at these time frames?
US Stocks appear to be headed lower as well. Believe the S&P could support at 1030 or so, then it’s wait and see. Am currently invested in SDS and EEV while I wait for Safe Money picks, like LIHR, VVC, WAT, GROW, DSX, PAGG, TBT, and WU to make their mark.
I have only been making stock selections based on technicals, not fundamentals as I can’t trust data coming from the government, especially regarding unemployment levels. It appears that unemployment numbers are being doctored.
I very much like your commentators. I am small potatoes, but am usually fully invested in about 25 stocks. I am almost all into gold, oil, wind, lithium, and a water stock. I would like to get more global but low priced stocks are hardly ever mentioned. Most of what I have has doubled to tripled since last summer. My income is my pension. You can see what my belief is in from the above. You’d think one could pick stocks that wouldn’t go down with the market, but the dropping tide seems to drop all boats. I also think traders love the ups and downs and cause most of the fluctuation. I am for alternate energy. I will probably sink or swim with the stock market. It looks down for now. Also, if Industrial Nanotech is for real, I will do well.
Invested in Ford, Hershey and Honda stock – planning on holding for the long term. Looking for other long term investments. Sometimes feel like I’d better buy gold and bury it – don’t feel confident about banks, taxes or those who run Washington and have their own agenda. Too much government interference and too much of everybody’s paychecks going to more taxes. I don’t feel confident enough to invest in foreign markets like China as it seems to me that many of their exports are bad for you health. Also feel like socialism is taking over in America.
As some of you know, I am an advocate of investing in debt especially the debt being sold by the FDIC at a discount from failed banks and have invested over 20 years in those opportunities. The window of opportunity has opened, once again and is expected to gain momentum in 2010. I ran across The Hennessee Hedge Fund who has invested in debt since about 2000 with a remarkable return. Does anyone out there have any experience with this or any other hedge fund making the skind of returns as Hennessee?
CJ
Dear Martin,
I am novice to the stock market and have been following your newsletter and LOVE YOU AND NILES. However I am a little confused and fear that I am not quite up to the task of a self directed stock portfolio. With that said I have invested in Alcoa 50% of my funds and have another $47k on the side lines reading your every column and word and learning what I can by the charts. However, Alcoa has taken a nose dive and I am torn between selling some and taking the $10K loss or adding other stocks to my portfolio. Scared and confused in Massachusetts.
I bought back in 1996 a stock @ 9.41, sold last week for 44.42. Week before sold stock bought years ago @ 10-12.5 and sold last week @24-25.
So, I still believe in American stocks, dividend payers are for me.
Greetings Martin,
Have followed you for a year and really enjoy your thoughts………OK, I don’t enjoy them, but I do appreciat them. I have made a number of changes in my trading…out of US stocks, into gold, energy and a little of Tonys Asian deals. I do have one question and concern. I have a good percentage in John Hancock for my retirement. What do you think the future looks like for this large mutual fund investor?
I know you are making $ on this, but thanks for providing the service and information…even to those of us that can’t afford your SPECIAL offers………Thanks, Scott
Martin, Actually I have mostly gold, silver and a little Platiunum ETFs, a couple stocks recomended by you and Claus FDO and AAN, and a bunch of gold, silver, platinum and paladium mining companies and a little GDX. Also have a couple small other companies that are a bit speculative but small exposure there. Also have a little USO and a natural resource play Larry recomended. I got out of the Korea ETF a week or so ago and have little asia exposure. Mostly metals and mining companies for me and looking to buy more energy and oil and maybe geothermal and lithium related plays. Am interested in energy but a bit gunshy right now as oil seems like it is losing steam in the short run but definately, like metals, a good one for the long haul.
Dear Martin,
As per your book on surviving the next great depression, I pulled out of the market. I thought you were advocating ETFs, but one of your staff was mentioning that even if you guess right on sector and market direction, you can still lose big. So I don’t understand them well enough. Thought I’d look at buying DRIPS for dividend stocks. Is this a good idea. Jane Bryant Quinn says I should be investing in market index funds.
Sincerely,
Joel Berger
I am completely OUT of US stocks and bonds and I have never slept better. Wall Street needs an enema, and until that happens, I will invest my money elsewhere.
RE American Pledge: Tax reform not detailed. Things not addressed or not fully addressed: members covered by health care bill; pay back of funds taken out of social security trust; including fuel and food prices in cost of living increases in SS payments; stopping all earmarks and all lobbying.
Don’t fall off your seat!!
Question: brokers ” bet” that a “value” can go up or down. Convinced investors to buy, hoping for the best. Simple.
But I don’t understand why the same brokers selling the same values “bet” against them !
Why? How does it work? Who does make money? The brokers?
Can you explain to an idiot?LOL!
Thank you.
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