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For the past week or so, I’ve been meeting our readers here to talk about how a prudent investor might build the optimum growth portfolio for 2010.
It’s a crucial question: Diversifying your money across the asset classes that are most likely to surge in the months ahead can make all the difference in the world. It helps ensure that all the items in your portfolio works together synergistically to boost your profit potential and cut your risk of loss.
So far, we’ve examined U.S. stocks … foreign stocks … fixed income investments … precious metals … and foreign currencies. Today, I need you to weigh in on our final asset class: Commodities.
First, though, let’s take a look at some of the answers to yesterday’s questions:
Do currency ETFs have a place in your portfolio?
Which currencies — the U.S. dollar, Canadian or Aussie dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, Brazilian real or others — are you most bullish on right now?
What percent of your total investment capital do you invest in currencies?
At least one-third of our readers flatly reject the idea of diversifying a portion of their money into currencies …
William B. lacks the confidence to include currencies in his portfolio: “To be honest, I am not confident enough to invest in currencies with my level of expertise and have no currencies in my portfolio. I would include the Brazilian real if I were to invest in that market.”
Eugene agrees: “I am convinced that one can profit handsomely in [foreign] exchange,” he writes. “But that is too speculative for me. I’ll leave that to the Big Boys!”
But at least two-thirds of our readers disagree, saying that currencies can and should play an important role in a well-diversified portfolio:
According to Mike M, “Currencies, as of the past two years have been a part of my portfolio as a means of diversification. By trading currencies, I have broadened my knowledge on macro-economic and global situations, thus allowing for better decisions to be made regarding my trades.”
James P., who says he’s “all into currency,” writes: “I like currency ETFs and the likelihood of the dollar rising for now against the euro and British pound.”
Rachel D. says, “I have about 20% invested in currencies. I believe that the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar will do well this year.”
Gerard M., who also invests 20% of his portfolio in currencies, writes, “Currency ETFs are the answer to those of us not adept at the ‘currency’ market. I favor Brazil, China, Australia and Canada, the latter two for their commodity stash.”
Once again — remarkably well-informed insights and ideas!
And tomorrow, we’re going to summarize ALL of your responses to each of the asset classes we’ve examined — and begin the process of constructing the optimal growth portfolio for 2010.
First, though, I need your answers on our final asset class:
What portion of your portfolio do you have invested in commodities and natural resources?
Which commodities do you prefer?
And what instruments do you use — commodity ETFs, commodity stocks, futures, other?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio for 2010.
Simply click here and use the “comments” area to share your thoughts. I’ll add my own thoughts as well.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 192 comments… read them below or add one }
Martin,
I have an EverBank WorldCurrency CD as a start to currency diversification. It is based on the real, so it’s taken some heat recently. My previous attempts to by currency options did not meet with great success. I have approximately 5% of my investments in physical gold and silver, and another 5% in gold mining stocks and ETF’s.
How about MLPs for fixed income (especially those in gas and oil pipelines)?
I am surprised that you don’t mention Managed Futures within this discussion. It was one of the few asset classes that were actually up when the markets imploded in “08! With the stringent regulation, liquidity and transparency managed futures makes sense as a means of diversification.
1) Oil company in China and ETF commodity in Austrailia. 2) I personally think that having a balanced portfolio of more than one is a good idea, but I do prefer the ETF commodity from Austrailia, because it diversifies different commodities in one. 3) ETF Commodities.
my answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio for
Have about 30% directly in foreign currency.
Norwegian Krone are a safe hedge given Norway’s very solid economic base and prudent long-term investment strategy;
Got out of dollars entirely about a year ago. Big gains of approx 35% made in Euro to devalued Uk sterling end of last year.
Fred
About five years ago, I invested a very small percentage of my portfolio in GLD (gold ETF).
It is no longer a small percentage. Although gold is “more expensive” than before, it still is a bargain that I expect it to continue to rise against currencies.
I have approximately 20% of my self-managed portfolio in commodities. Natural gas and distribution infrastructure ETFs and MLPs are significant part of these holdings. I also have about 5% in gold and silver ETFs. I’m watching charts on drilling and petroleum support activities, and am prepared to enter when trends indicate. I also hold a small stash of physical gold bullion coins and rare silver coins.
My portfolio is 60% invested in the NZSE40, of that 25% is coal 20% oil 10% commercial property, 20% health care, 5% power generation and 30% corporate notes. I have no interest in gold but like silver although i currently have none. My remaining 40% is invested in foreign currencies via the use of futures contracts.
I have 20% in commodities at this time.
50% invested in commodities and natural resources
Platinum/Palladium, Silver, Gold, Natural Gas
Commodity ETF’s, mining stocks, Natural Resource Trusts
1. At the moment I have pulled out completely, waiting for the downdraft to stabilize. Was in gold briefly.
2. I favor Silver over gold now, then sugar, and cocoa.
3. Only ETFs.
The numerous ideas from your subscriber list are interesting but I’m not sure why or how they pertain to me. I suscribe because I believe your advice is studied and insighful and believe you have a good track record. I would rather hear from you and your staff – in the interest of time.
All fiat currency will be in for a rude awaking in 2010. Gold and silver as well as other metal and commodities will have a rebirth. The only question is when in 2010. Fear will give the dollar a little more time, but not much. Evidentually, all investors will realize that the drunken sailors in Washington have gone too far over the cliff for the dollar to be saved.
We are currently enjoying a two month vacatioin in Lakeland Fla. With regard to forex trading, I’ve thought about it however I’m not sure I have the technical savy to proceed.
I do agree with your thoughts on commodities and done very well over the past few months. I’m out of the market at present
Regards
Roy
I do it indirectly: buying a Federated fund that invests in global goverment debt, per your excellent recommendation; SM
GOLD-APPROX. 40-45% IN STOCKS AND ETF
SILVER APPROX. 25% IN BULLION, STOCKS, AND ETF’S
OIL- APPROX 15% IN OIL STOCKS
CURRENCIES-APPROX 10% SPLIT AMONG FOUR
I follow Tony Sagami and Larry Edelson and invest in individual stocks in gold, silver, and oil. I do have a couple of ETF’s that have performed well, but prefer individual stocks to ETF’s.
I currently have approx. 40% of my net worth in commodities. I prefer to hold 20% Gold, 19% Silver and a few 1oz. Palladium Mapleleafs.The majority of my holdings are in Gold collector coins. Silver American Eagles are my 2nd largest holding. I do have 15% in equities & 45% parked in Money Market waiting to invest.
Natural resources such as iron ore, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, etc are needed in the high growth developing markets and are priced in $ …. seems like stuff we should be long in.
For 2010 long the Dxy, short the Euro and short the long bond above 4.80 interest level.
Also THANKS! Your analysis of Ford bonds that were then selling at a premium to par saved me more that a half a million dollars!
Actually, my % of total investment in natural resources is quite high, because I spend probably 80% of my available investment capital in oil & gas. I have held O&G positions as a significant, principle side business for better than 20 years. I principally invest in small partnerships through private placement memoranda, drilling new wells, recompletions, etc.. I do have about 5% of my stock investment portfolio in gold, and about 5% in oil & gas (SHI, REXX, KMP) or energy-related stocks/funds.
I have enjoyed reading everyones comments. I have always enjoyed trading in futures and spent at least 25 of my 62 years trading, sugar, Au/Ag, and currencies. Especially the Swiss Franc and German Mark. But that was a different time and place. I trust no paper currency. And, what good does it do to make 50% in the stock market if the Dollar is collapsing. I feel that I hit a major home run in 2002, going 100% in gold and silver. I see no reason to exit in a time frame less than 2 years. However, as additional capital becomes available, it will go into natural gas, rare earth oxides, lithium and quite possibly companies that will benefit from President Obama’s green initiative. I feel badly for skeptics who refute Global Warming as a scientific fact. They and their money will be left in the dust! Regards Richard
This is the smartest investment advice of anything i’ve heard in 30years..
Its true, its all the above and the ultimate in diversification of asset classes..
From time to time, we just recalibrate the mix depending upon economic and performance cycles. But we should never lose sight of the cycles and being too heavy in one area due to past performance or bias.
I am very new to the business of investing, and I am now playing catch-up. One thing truly that I would value is HOW to invest- the mechanisms involved in trading anything, not just in what to trade. I have read in many places that ETFS should be avoided because information about what is actually in the ETF is unknown to the average investor.
Q: What portion of your portfolio do you have invested in commodities and natural resources?
A: Approximately 10%
Q: Which commodities do you prefer?
A: Gold, Silver, Oil
Q: And what instruments do you use — commodity ETFs, commodity stocks, futures, other?
A: ETF-s, Equities, Precious Metal (Gold Bullion), Call Options
I am not invested in commodities. I have always felt I lack in knowledge concerning this area of investing. However, if doing so, I’m sure I would ETF’s.
Martin
Have has some exposure to commodities, but would enjoy more time and exposure to the FX currency ETF’s and limit risk, and know how to use to the optimum rewards, risk to reward.
anyone heard of this club ? click on my name to view
As I see it, the problem with the American economy started in the 60s when the
enviromentalists demanded factories to clean up the air and waste, because this was
too costly, companies have been moving their factories to places where the same
things can be made for less money talking American jobs out of this country to places
like Mexico, Asia, some of Europe and South America. This steady flow of jobs leaving
the country has not slowed down and it never will until congress puts and end to it,
and since for the most part, they are not righteous enough to know what to do to even
see the problem, we are doomed to continue to go down and settle for much less. We
are left with our leaders continuing to print money to pay bills out of this air. This
economy is destined to crash until these problems are addressed. As I see it, the
commercial market has not crashed and until is crashes, real estate prices will not
fall enough to make enough difference for store owners to save enough on rent so they
can lower their prices which will lead to more sales from those that do have a job to
buy things.
Because stores are so expensive; more and more people are going to the internet to
save what they can. Stores can’t lower their prices because rents are too high, so
they either raise their prices and go out of business because people go to cheaper
stores or lower their prices and go out of business because they can’t make their
rent each month. Either way, until the commercial market crashes, things won’t
change. Dan Johnson
Trading commodities for 30 years taught me that aside from short term gains mega trends need to be found and acted upon. Obama’s ineptness and oughtright destruction of this economy is a boon to commoditis evrywhere. This should be once in a lifetime event. I predicted Americans would fall for this charleton of the graduate school of crooked politicians from Chicago hook line and sinker. Your right the debt bomb is in the prossess of exploding. What we don’t know is how the government will cover its ass, and restrictions they’ll place on bank withdrawals and other assets they’ll grab. Being from Boston I’ve seen first hand what a one party state gets away with and imposes upon taxpayers. Wake up America. Regards Len p.s. You probably won’t use this but if you do leave my name out. Thanks.
I have the Aust$, Brazilian Real, Canadian$, Norw Krone, NZ$, and the S. Af Rand. At the moment they’re all down, so one must hold on until they go up again. Currencies fluctuate wildly without warning, so my advice is to stay out of currency CDs, unless you don’t care how they move up or down. As far as I can tell, nobody knows well enough in advance how the currencies will move.
Right now i like the precious metals and soft commodies ie agricultural
We have about 10% of opur portfolio in commodities and may add on dips. We use a mix of ETFS. stocks and mutual funds
People Ditch the Gold Now! Ditch the Euro Now! Ditch Aything that deals with China in any capacity! Buy Oil,Oil,Oil and more Oil! July 01, 2010 will be the last day to get on the bus to make massive Profits! $250 @ Barrel is comming Soon!
Gold & Silver! As the dollar ascends, gold and silver climb. While the dollar and the Dow are struggling to stay at the top of their current range, a surge in gold and silver initiates and accelerates. The predictable arrival of dynamic inflation has begun!
Martin,one guy said he was not investing in currencies but if he was
he would include the Real…Apparently he wrote this some time ago
when the Real was on fire, but isn’t that what you would from the
crowd,ie,jump in with both feet at the top… That’s what Prechter
means by herding… Your U.C. team has been ranting about the
demise of the dollar and $5000 Gold… The dollar will be much higher
and Gold will be a whole lot lower before they reverse current direction!!!
Just wanted to put in a couple cents worth…
Thanks Richard @ 39051
Currently, I do not invest in currencies and probably wouldn’t because I don’t have the knowledge to do this. I would also caution anyone who is thinking about this to make sure that they have a good knowledge of commodity investing and some built in some type of protection from incurring too big of a loss.
If you are going to use the US$ as your base, be keenly aware of what is going on in your economy as well as that of the country whose currency you are investing in. Things are pretty volatile right now. It ’s a great time to make money IF you know what you are doing.
Almost all of my portfolio is made up of ETFs. I do hold a substantial amount in commodities. Also, hold ETFs for China, Brazil, Asia, India, Australia, Canada, and Emerging Markets. Also hold some Global Bonds, Tips and short term Bonds (1 to 5 yrs).
Jim
As far as commodities and natural resources I would imagine I might be a little heavy at about 60% but am sold on natural resource, gold, precious metals, oil, coal, natural gas, food & energy etc. If you think I am wrong please advise. DH
20% cash and 80% in stocks commodities ie gold, O&nat gas,uranium, lithium etc.
No ETF yet and short selling but it is comming.
Martin,
I have over half my net worth in commodities… Farms in western Kansas and Colorado that have been in the family for over 90 years as well as mineral interests in the Hugoton Gas fields of Kansas that have been in the family for a similar amount of time.
It seems my ancestors had enough sense to invest in productive assets rather than U.S. Government IOU’s or speculative hope stocks… or even dare I say “GOLD!” (that sluggard of an asset that produces nothing yet shines like no other asset and is at best an uninvested inflation hedge for the long term). I say, “Sell gold and invest the difference!”
Paul D 30% of my portfolio is in oil and fertilizer stocks.
I only invest in gold using the GOLD ETF. I don’t plan to store actual commodities privately.
Five years as a commodity trader living in Brazil in early ’80s taught me two lessons:
inherent strength of agri markets and what life is like under 100% annual inflation.
(Imagine shopping supermarket aisle and a man with a price gun following behind you,marking everything up 10% – this done every month!). I am 20% in agri and metal futures, 20% in precious gems (highly illiquid, but profitable if you sell in Mid-east/Russia/China), 60% T bills.The commodity selloff of the past two weeks is the last great buying opportunity we will have for the next 2 years. Whether you use etf’s or futures, don’t miss it! (PS….Love real estate but it hasn’t hit bottom yet)
BEING SEMI-RETIRED, I’M MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT WEALTH PRESERVATION AND INCOME.I HAVE OVER THE PAST YEAR STARTED INVESTING IN GOLD/SILVER. I HAVE TOO MUCH IN CASH (BANK CD’S ) DUE TO LOOKING FOR MORE INCOME WITH A MINIMAL DEGREE OF RISK. COULD SOMEONE PLEASE ADDRESS MLP’S AND ENERGY ROYALTY TRUSTS.
I am too new at trading to leave a useful comment. I have not traded any in currencies per se ETFs seem the way for me to trade. I am old and must be cautious.
90% in commodites Grains, Meats, Softs, short bonds
About 35% of my current portfolio is invested in commodities. Since commodities do not always move in sync, I like to stay diversified.
– Oil Royalty Trusts … ERF, PGH, PBT, PVX, SBR, SJT
– Oil Production … CEO, DPTR, PBR
– Gold mining … NGD, TGLDX, TGB
– copper … PCU
– steel … SID
– potash … POT
– farmland … CRESY
– agriculture … MOO
– multiple minerals … BHP
– multiple minerals … UNWPX
I am heavily weighted in BHP Billiton. BHP is involved in mining so many different kinds of mining operations, owning BHP is like owning a mutual fund without the fees. I also like BHP because it is located in Australia and is close to its primary customer … China.
I currently have about 80% of my portfolio in commodities, with 75% of that in mining shares via mutual funds, the other 25% is in physical gold and silver as part of an IRA in a custodial account. The 20% of my portfolio not in commodities is cash. I have held this approximate ratio for over 10 years now, with just a minimal of in and out activity and have averaged nearly 20% annually!
My old dictionary defines “fascism” as the governmental dictatorial control of industry!
With Benito Obama in the Whitehouse, I do not find any aventue of investing that is not frought with such a high level of risk as to preclude investing. Food, and prescious metals, and some friends say ammunition is the onlhy “safe” play. Karl R.
I have probably 50% of my portfolio in commodities and natural resources (not including gold, which is maybe 20%). This is in the form of stocks and ETF’s. Whether this is good or bad, I don’t know. Actually I feel totally outclassed attempting to engage in this discussion, and would much rather listen and learn than display the appalling details of my ignorance. I am waiting breathlessly for some reliable words from an experienced and knowledgeable source of information.
Have 20 to 25% of liquid assets in stock accounts mainly because my wife feels more safe in CD’s and money market funds. We are 66 & 67 years old. Of the amount in stock accounts, I currently have over 25% in SLV and over 10% in SVM, but expect selling some today or tomorrow. Have about 15% in Chinese stocks (unfortunately most of them are lightly traded, so not easy to get in or out). Nearly 20% in transportation stocks (bulk ships) and the rest in cash and miscellaneous.
From the mid 1970’s through the mid 1990’s I traded futures contracts and traded the E-mine S&P some in the mid 2000’s, but have traded mainly socks since about 2000.
It looks to me like inflation will hit really hard at some time in the future, but interest rates may stay relatively low for several months yet–maybe a couple of years; and the dollar index may stay relatively high for a while yet. At some time in the future I’d like to get into various commodity ETF’s, especially the ones that include grains such as wheat and companies in the water industry. (Should also look into companies involved in production, processing and marketing of rice.)
Since the 1970’s I have heard talk of some currency other than the US$, such as Gold and Silver. I think we really need to start thinking about this in earnest. It maybe several years yet (maybe several decades) before a new currency becomes necessary. If/when it happens, we in the USA should be in the forefront of developing the new currency and developing it in a way that is the most advantageous to us. There isn’t enough gold, silver and other metals in the world today for a reasonable currency. So we need to think of what can be used that we have in abundance. Since the USA has a lot of assets such as land, commodities, businesses, etc. I believe the new currency should be denominated in units of AN INDEX that encompasses the current CRB index, NYSE index, an index of bonds, etc.–in other words the assets of our country. I believe it is necessary to start a serious dialog about what a new currency for the USA would look like, how it would function and how it would keep politicians, etc. from just printing money–debasing the currency.
I am enjoying Chase Bank, and their brothers & sisters in the international industry squirm, as they might, in order not to get themselves caught when their collective involvement with the ever lving, Hedged-Monte Carlo, explodes in their face.
guess work;luck is your only partner in this manipulated market.no luck no money,stop losses put behind your deal only means now you have put yourself into an actual market order situation and may the luck you need be with you. sincerely,wad
I’m mostly into gold, silver & foreign ETF’s. My question is, how do I hedge against the rising dollar when I am dollar invested in foreign ETF’s?
Currency trading concerns me because some government can change its position & your on the wrong side of the equation.
Commodities, meaning oil, gas, food crops? I don’t know enough about investing in this area. One of the drawbacks for me is environmental issues. I’ll be looking for suggestions on this blog.
After a very thorough analysis of the Global Markets, I join the commentary of Money and Markets Editors, plus many financial experts in this field that two “Home Run” ventures will benefit the Long Term Investor: 1. Convert USD into Canadian Currency in 2010 and open an offshore account with Royal Bank of Canada or Toronto Dominion Bank directly and pay your US taxes as if you had your $$ in BofA, Chase, Wells Fargo etc. 2. As Sean Broderick pointed out today, wait for the US$ to strengthen in the near term, and Gold and Silver Metal prices will fall, and then based on your discretionary cash, purchase some Silver Bullion and take physical title to it at your Home. Best Mint in the USA is Northwest Territorial Mint in Auburn, Washington.
Martin, I am invested in Gold coins, commodities and some currency. I am a believer we and much of the world will not show much growth. The exceptions will be China, India and Brazil.
Lew
I have about 20-25% of my portfolio in commodity stocks.
I believe iron ore will continue to do well with China’s efforts
to prevent a “bubble economy” being a positive factor for the
long haul. I recently sold Rio Tinto (RTP) and purchased VALE
because the latter is gaining market share and consistently
manages to overcome its greater distance from China with
low cost, high quality ore. VALE will also be a beneficiary of
growth in Brazil so it seems to have the best of both worlds,
a commanding position in sea-borne iron exports and an
expanding domestic economy. VALE also has a cleaner
balance sheet with less debt and a large cash hoard that
should be able to cover a contemplated purchase of
BUNGE’s fertilizer operation.
I also expect the precious metals to do well given the
exorbitant debt being piled up by the Obama administration
and its obvious reluctance to permit greater utilization of
America’s domestic resources. I believe the dollar’s recent
strength will prove short-lived particularly in relation to
precious metals. I therefore hold Yamana Gold (AUY),
Silvercorp Metals (SVM), and Anglo-American Mining (AAUKY),
the world’s premier platinum producer.
Yes, I’m bullish on commodities and have invested in oil, natural gas and , especially, silver. (I believe that the price of silver has been manipulated by massive short selling by JP Morgan and will explode when shortages appear in the market). I own the ETF and the physical metal.
My interest in currencies extends only to the Chinese Yuan. I do own the Yuan ETF as I believe that its only a matter of time when that country detaches their currency from the dollar to meet domestic consumption pressures.
I am interested to see the response of the non market professional intellectuals to your blog, who feel that deflationary pressures will temporarily halt the rise in value of fixed assets. As people repay their mortgages and loans, the supply of money decreases. (One of your letters said governements just don’t have enough cash to mitigate that) It is also said that in the Global Market there will be a slow balancing of price – that the older “West” will decline and the newer “East” will rise. This of course takes some time. But the emphasis now on building a profitable growth portfolio may be to seek out the wealth creators with strong cash flow and low debt, in biotechs, technology, engineering and distribution. I may have to forgo commodities in my speculative fund,to maximise my profits 2010. However, I have 25% in scarce metals of which only 4% is in an ETF, mostly Gold & silver and a little copper, and a mining company which mines these & others. The ETF is silver – which will be a long haul – yes my cycle info says about 2014 – but if I want 2010 profit I am looking for a window to go to cash and free up for other opportunities.
inflation or deflation? that is the issue of the day as it was in the original benito’s time, who stated corporatism was the proper term for fascism. volker is back so hopefully the dollar will survive, but k romaneschi is convincing. i would argue water may supercede precious metals in importance. tom
Dr. Weiss:
I have been active in the commodities & natural resource sector since 2002. I originally started with a 10% allocation to these sectors and increased that amount to 50% in May of 2005, in my core portfolio. My primary trading vehicles are Gold, Silver & Oil equities. Based on technicals, I hedge those long positions with short-term Put-Options on the equities that I feel trade the best, to offset drawdowns in the core portfolio when the market is correcting.
I also selectively use the remainder of my 50% cash to purchase Call-Options, again based on technical analysis, in Gold/Silver/Oil, maybe 2 or 3 times a year, with a 3-6 month time frame to give the trades room to work and a fixed stop-loss of 10%.
This format has worked extremely well for me in the past 4 years.
Thanks,
Mike
Hi Martin,
Living in Australia, I have about 80% of my investments in oil, gold, silver bullion,& rare metals. The reason to me is there will be a shortage of product IF the world continues growing even if not rapidly. To me financial stocks are too vunerable to the vageries of any kind of downturn or negative growth. Commodities are also influenced in the same way however it is actual product much the same as bricks and mortar.
Thanks Greg Macqueen
My portfolio consists of aporx 19% gold fund and natural resources.Started wit about 10%.Started when gold was around $850 and oil at $40.
Plan to hold current position as long as our PEERLESS leadership continues to print money.
Am very light on U.S. eqiuties.Plan to put some of my bond money into equities after the next correction which I think can be significant.Will be consrvative though as I am now 70 and not as frisky risk wise as in the past.
Martin
8% is long EUO at $151.15
10% in American Gold coins all ms64 or greater all pre 1911
$1, 2.50, 5.00 and 10.00 gold coins no double Eagles
1% is in MS70 silver 2008 and 2009
May I respond to the “hold Canada dollars” crowd? I read an article that said what would keep back the returns on holding Canadian Dollars is the return on your money. The stronger US dollar may make gains on the Canadian Dollar short lived??? Please I am no expert but when all the markets plunged I kept a daily eye on Bloomburg and Canada didn’t fair well. But New Zealand and Australia held up very well. I think the entry & exit to Canadian dollars will have to be carefully timed. I’d prefer holding timber.
What are two good etf’s to use for the dollar when it is going up or down?
I have about 50% in Commoditys. Land, Cattle, Gas wells,silver, Gold, minning. As far as stocks have ADM,CLD,DBC,WHX alot of small minning storks.
As a Canadian living in the US it is hard to see the US as a leader out of this. The US$ needs to be part of the basket but so does the others. If the US$ drops look at a big upside in the C$ and a climbing commodities.
The market seems to be immune to all the bad news right now but things like a dropping dry Baltic and declining vic seem to fortell something coming.
Hello Martin,
I hold about 40% in gold and energy stocks, a small portion of this is in ETFs.i do follow your Safe Money recos and hence have purchased some TBT ultra short 20+ year treasury shares as well.
Regards.
Dr Weiss:
I have one quarter of my portfolio in an Ivy Global Nat Resource fund that i have had for several years. To date it has recovered quite nicely and i have made some good profits but i am not married to it and wonder if i should take money off the table( especially) in that fund? It will fall again and i don’t want to lose once more with it. I don’t hold any other commodities.
I do have many commodies in my portfolio. I believe the immediate future will handsomely reward those persons participating in this sector.
I don’t know anything about futures, or how to use them.
About 25% is in gold/silver.
10% in energy, mostly oil.
As an investor for the past fifty years, I began investing in mutual funds. I later began investing in individual stocks, and when ETFs were introduced, I was attracted to them because they appeared to be a combination of mutual funds and stocks. My current investment strategy is to make over ninety percent of my investments in ETFs, and I am happy with that arrangement.
Currency trading is for the big traders. ETFs are useful for commodities.
I am currently invested as follows:
79% cash, short term treasurys, cd’s, & bonds
7% domestic stocks
13% foreign stocks
of those equitites,
46% are in pharma
25% are in energy
7% are in industrial materials
5% utilities
The rest are an odd mix of things
I am confused over currency moves, except that there seems to be a rule, that if the dollar goes down, then gold and precious metals will go up. Since I have read that the dollar is due to go up for a spell, I’m holding my cash becase it makes me feel good.
I am 20% energy, 30% silver, 10% gold, 15% chinese and the remainer in US, Canadian
and Brazaian investments. Half the investments are in ETF’s and half in individual stocks. I feel I should have more in energy and metals but think those risks are too high at the present time.
PETROLEUM / GAS ARE THE ONLY COMODIES I USE. I CAN IN MY MIND CONSIDER ELECTRIC POWER AS A COMODITY
I do believe in the commodities as part of my portfolio. I puchased mostly gold coins around 900 with 25% of my portfolio and expect to just hold them through these most recent corrections with the long term approach that they will continue to appreciate. I would very much like to add more commodities as I beleive this sector has great protential againt the US market. I don’t however have a service that I trust to help with these decisions. I would like to add some stocks after the market corrects as now I am out of stocks and in a lot of corp. bonds which makes me nervous. I need some insight on what to do with those. No one seems to discuss these much!
Clearly, the “amateur” investor such as myself should be very cautious. We don’t gnerally have the depth of knowledge as to the stability of commodity prices that a professional has. The old saying I grew up with was: “In hard times, go to the ground” meaning mines, farms, tangible things people always needs. Unfortunately, with computerized trading programs and manipulation by banks and funds, the small investor is along for the ride.
I am a business analyst and rely extensively on trendline analysis in assessing a clients business. Trend lines indicate relative motion. In my investment portfolio management, they give you yield spreads; one trend moving faster than another. The two sector trends that appear to offer the most opportunity in the coming year are; silver, which has lagged behind gold and usually reflects directly the price of gold, and grains (wheat, corn, soybeans in particular) The price of grains, on a global scale, are lagging behind increasing demand. China has the cash to subsidize their food imports and will for political stability. That leads to a general trend of increasing prices (and probably will reflect in pork and beef prices as well). While you have to pick your entry and exit points based on technical factors, the trendline for the foreseeable future for those two categories is up.
Do currency ETFs have a place in your portfolio?
Yes.
Which currencies — the U.S. dollar, Canadian or Aussie dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, Brazilian real or others — are you most bullish on right now?
UUP and UDN
What percent of your total investment capital do you invest in currencies?
5%
I know nothing about currencies. My only frame of reference is reading what George Soros has done. Janet Nadler
I am bullish on the Aussie dollar the Canadian dollar and on the Norwegian Krone. I do not have any ETFs, but bought stocks in these countries only a small percentage not woth to mention in the total investment frame
I have about 50% in precious metals and small miners (PTM, SVM, EGO, GDX, OSKFF, NAK, RBY, KXM, LGCU and they have done well in 2009, but silver SVM and platinum PTM have been slow to catch gold. I hold some DGP (double gold) to watch the trend in precious metals-when it turns down by 20-30% I will get out of metals, but things are climbing. My Oil has been relatively flat over the last 3-4 months (PBR, BP, XOM, TTNP). I have some small biotechs (ENZN, LTUS, TTNP) and some financials that pay good dividends (NLY, MFA, CMO). I was in ETFs but did poorly in 2008 so I do look at the ETFs esp for emerging markets but I have stayed away. I haven’t played the currency market as it seems too volatile for my understanding of the currnecy market factors-seems too whimsical and subject to politics. My overall stock turnover is about 40% per yr so that has helped me follow the market more than I did when I lost alot in 2008.
Well Martin,
Against the rules, we have everything in commodities.
So far, with commodities I am not losing, yet I can only imagine that if the US stock market crashes, gold, platinum, silver and other commodities will fall with everything else even though logically those will be the things that will still have or should have worth.
Buena suerte,
Daniel
Martin,
Currently i have roughly 15% invested in currency(s) Canadian-Norway.
I have one problem with this investment and it concerns the dollar value vs the future value of Chinese currency. I realize in the past few years they have made Billions from our purchases and they have +/_ 11/2 Trillion $ in credits. Almost 600 Billion is committed to pumping up their infrastructure BUT here is what confronts me-my son makes 1/2 doz. or more trips to China as chief engineer for communication installations. During his trips around the different provinces his word to me is that there are literally 100’s of empty factories-yet they continue to build more. There are also HUGE “make work” projects ex. an 8 mile landscaped expressway from the airport to the city-the grass and plantings are all parceled out about 50′ per worker-that is his TOTAL job maintaining that small piece. Now my concern is we are obviously not buying as before nor is the European mkt. There are not enough wealthy Chinese to make up the difference $ wise so my question is Where is this 8.5% growth coming from?? If there is a possibility of the books “Getting Cooked” they cannot continue to purchase our Gov’t. notes….This is why i am very concerned about currency values..Any and all information appreciated.
Sorry i got so “windy” George Rittenhouse
I like silver. It seems to be one of the most undervalued of commodities. Yes it is a precious metal, but it is also a commodity. It has many industrial applications. I read one writer recently that even called silver a currency play. When fiat currencies fall through the floor, silver can fill the role as a new(old) medium of exchange at a much higher value.
Lets not forget people that currencies are all somebody elses paper. They are not real money and are heading for a disaster.
I am 66% commodities, mosly Canadian.
Am not sure about Aussie dollar, China yuan, or Brazil’s real, but sense I should be there by 2011 when our inflation will start upward.
Dollar / Gold I think the trade of the year . besides shortin the s$p avd LONG the DOLLAR and SHORT Gold . There is almost an absolute certainty among most traders that the dollar will resume its downtrend … I think it’s in for quite a ride to the upside
Dear Martin I have tried currencies and commodities with 2 brokers very unsuccessfully.
I think tese socaaleed brokers are most unethical to the point of being scams.
I would feel more confident doing them mtself with the expert recommendations from Weiss Group;
I have a bout 25 of ny portfolio in natural resources with sahres and options
I agree, thanks for all you do
One could say that all five accounts — three cash accounts and two Roth IRA accounts — are 90% commodities / resources stocks. However, all five accounts are what I refer to as my “gambling accounts”…. they bear no relationship to our “for-living-purposes” assets.
The total invested in four of them was/remains $44k beginning in the late-1990s when I purchased oil & gas stocks such as CHK at $0.38 to $2.00 and WZR (now HK) at $2.00 as well as others. I rode these and the golds that I mentioned previously as well as some others upwards selling some along the way so as to obtain cash flow from Canadian oil & gas trusts …. when I got nervous about watching the stocks go up & down without putting anything “into my pocket” on a rountine basis.
Beginning in 2005 – 2006, we started using some of the proceeds to buy uranium, molybdenum, and rare earth stocks …. and are still doing so with our dividends periodically. Nevertheless, it was unsettling to hang-on as the $44k went to $450+k in early 2008 ….. and then back down to I have many thousands of shares of various stocks from low prices having worthwhile assets sitting in the ground.
I have about 10% in commodities at this time. Energy related stock and mutual fund.
I’M 60% IN COMMODITIES: GAS. OIL,MINING(METALS) GO0LD ETF,POTASH,SOME URANIUM, 30% COMMUNICATIONS, BALANCE IN FINANCIALS MOSTLY.
I believe the Iraqi Dinar is the way to go… it has no where to go but up, up, up!!!!
I keep one third in gold, silver, oil and gas with some in good electronics.
All of these strategies have a place in our portfolios, but the real question is–if you have to chose 1 or 2–which ones?
Only two: Both PM’s and ca$h. One for inflation the other for deflation. Its not complicated.
I think natural rescources are very important. I feel that it is wise to invest in well managed energy stocks right now. There are enough uncertaincies that I am staying liquid, I have some precious metals and precious metal stocks. Foreign currencies are an interesting play, but I need to learn more about trading them.
Thank you Martin for your letters and wise advise. Mike
Currently, I’m all in cash. It seems every country is printing paper money to keep “the great global collapse” from happening. I’m betting they’ll lose. Banks are not lending and savings rates are increasing. If commercial properties are as bad as they say, we’ll see a collapse 1st, then we’ll see the hyper inflation. Sadly, I believe the maneuver is intentional. These people are not stupid and they know where this will lead. Their motive is up for speculation.
The commodity sector seems to me to be a rather crowded trade, especially gold (Remember, every central bank HATES gold; that’s a very powerful group to trade against – which is why I prefer silver). Consequently, I sold all my holdings in this sector a few weeks ago and will wait another entry point.
In simple terms when that opportunity comes, I will invest in W.A.G.E, W for water (PHO DGW), A for agriculture (MOO and POT), G for gold (silver is better CDE SLV), and E for energy (EQT PBR).
Maling assumptions on the upcoming exchange rate of different currencies is a gamble. Does one know more than all of the people making the same gamble? At times it is profitable but at times fails. If one is smarter and knows more than all the others there is a good chance of profit, but even then sometimes unexpected changes like political intervention can make one a loser. It is a waste of time for most people. As a speculation compared to real investments, it does not pay dividends and does not reinvest earnings after such dividends to provide growth.; It is a speculation not an investment. It is a losers’ game/
Anyone with no more information than the average investor has is simply giving his/her
money away by getting onto commidities or currency, carty
Own currencies in the countries you plan to visit, or live in, when you think they are cheap enough on a historical level. The wronger you are the cheaper your stay will be, and the more you’ll enjoy it.
Not sure why you are asking us, who have subscribed to your newsletters for this kind of advice and feedback. I’m certainly NOT the expert here and I’m looking to you and your staff for these kinds of answers.
?????
As a Canadian, currently in Florida, I try to keep most of my investments in Canadian dollars. In round numbers I have 50% fixed (bonds, preferred shares, including reliable dividend payers) and about 50% in equities.
The 50% of equities are well diversified – namely
15% in Gold and gold miners XGD, CGL-UN.TO, BNT.TO, JIN.TO
10% in Silver bullion ETF SBT-UN.TO and SVM.TO silver miner
10% in FXI – and other China stocks
5% EEM, EEB, XEM
5% in Brazil EWZ
5% in Energy XEG; XMA materials
Many of these recommendations are based on your team of experts including Larry, Sean and Tony.
Thanks for your insight and those of your bloggers.
Hi Martin—love this feedback both ways. Am invested in div. paying gold stk.,s. , plenty of cash on the side .This is above and beyond my core gold/silver/platinum positions.Also have external cash acct,s in Euro. and Sterling.Own blue chip Bell stock , and some Cdn.tele. communication stocks. No ETF,NO Asian.
Denis
Commodities and commodity related investments are about 60% of my portfolio. Oil is by far my largest investment, about half of my commodity investments. These are stocks in medium sized independent oil companies. Since I have been a petroleum geologist for the last 40 years this is my expertise.
Gold is my second largest investment, about 30% of my commodity investments. Half is in cold bullion coins the remainder is in stocks of small and medium size gold companies, and ETFs.
The balance of my commodity investments are in natural gas, uranium, silver, and rare earth minerals.
i did this post this wk-end on a blog site i participate in:–dollar screeming up this yr.-most will be caught on the wrong side being short, & have to cover their positions & thus drive the $ higher. Thus IF a correlation is still working, pm’s should head lwr.
Elliott patterns showing the same strong possibility, as well as cycles i follow, & for those who follow astrology, same thing there. ——for me, etf’s are becoming my first choice over futures & options–to much of a chance w margin calls re futures; too much time decay w options, unless u guy time & at the money calls or puts–for me, etf’s, work better, even if they go against me at first, i can hold them longer than the futures w/o getting out of the trade, IF my longer term idea for movement is correct. Can still use stops, ++ the advantage of doing 2X or 3X etf trades. Now all i have to learn is how to buy option etf’s!! Hey, Martin, there’s another possibility for possible low risk trade set-ups. Also, you did i GIANT move in getting cycle analysis in your trade ideas–maybe a good idea to also get elliott interpretations to enhance it even more.
I have had a strong bullish feeling for silver for a long time.
My investments are:
Mining stocks: 3.7%
Mutual Fund/Precious Metals 3.3%
Bullion/Silver 90.8%
Energy stocks .7%
Agriculture stocks .7%
ETF Foreign (India) .7%
I am a shameless Silver bug, with no attempt to,
or interest in, balance or diversity in my modest holdings.
Martin,
I’m looking to get into FXA again.
I have a play portfolio of ’bout a mighty 6,000 dolllars. Husb’s IRA div worlwide…..I am in gold, gold ETF of Gold producers. silver,double short banks(negative), Shanda Games9(game).for long play…..next will go into copper or into commodity .Freeport or back to nat gas..all things fr long term.no fear of shifts.like India also……..
Perhaps you may consider me “unbalanced” with my portfolio holdings.
but I own 65% in diversifed commodities and the remainder in
global currencies. I love silver, gold and potash! What a combo!
I try to keep fully invested.
Currency UDN
Commodities GCC
I currently have about 5% of my retirement portfolio in gold shares, a gold mutual find, a gold miners ETF, and an energy ETF. I’m hoping to see a definite uptrend before I risk further investment in this area.
short canadian and australian june and no etf s
With a budget deficit of 1.7 trillion, or 10.3% of GDP, it is obvious that the US is in deep trouble. The question is whether this huge increase of debt fuels inflation or is the US facing a Japan like deflation. Either case is bad.
On the other hand, China continues to grow at 8% or more per year which means that in 9 years its economy will double. In another 9 years it will double again. The correlation between GDP growth and oil consumption growth in a developing economy like China’s is about 60%, so that means that their oil consumption (and that of similarly growing economies like India and Viet Nam) will grow by 60% in nine years, and by 180% in 18 years. So if you want a long term hedge on inflation buy oil. And probably the best place to buy oil stocks is Canada, where there exists the rule of law and protection of the investor, unlike some declining western hemisphere suppliers of oil that shall remain nameless. The Canadian oil sands have between 50 to 100 years of reserves available, depending on the project. At some time in the foreseeable future, Canada will be recognized as the world’s largest reserve of oil, after the Saudi reserve quantities are revised downward significantly, as Kuwait’s have already been. As Warren Buffett has said, “it is only when the tide goes out that we see who has been swimming naked.”
I think every investment portfolio should include some currency ETF trading to hedge against USD long term weakness
I prefer SLV or GLD. But I do think these type of ETFs will come under increased scrutiny from the feds as they rise.
As for the share of my portfolio in commodities and natural resources, about 95 percent of my pathetic IRA (last couple of years were pretty dismal) is in a Silver ETF. Considering my other two accounts are in more traditional investments, this only about 3 percent of my total portfolio.
4% of my Dad’s portfolio to RJI etn. Looking to buy more dollar continues to strengthen and commodities decline I would like him to have 15% commodity related investments. On currencies what do you all think about etf’s that hold multiple currencies like CEW or DBV.
I am invested 30 percent in UNG. I look at investing in limilited resources, unlike currencies that can be pumped into any given market at any given time. My choice to invest in things that are limited is based on supply and demand. With Natural gas being cleaner and more aboundant than oil, it’s the smartest and cleanest gas to convert to. I am long Nat Gas and UNG!
I have a history of losses in currencies: options and ETFs. I have 1% of at-risk money in the Wisdomtree Juan fund.
Over half of at-risk money is in oil,gas and nuclear stocks. Another 10% is in the agricultural area (water and fertilizers: using stocks and ETFs )
I do not count Au and Ag as at risk money(maybe I should) but have them at a level of about 2/3 of the total at-risk money.
I believe Platinum is the best bet for 2010 in terms of commodities.
Break the farmer, you break the world, simple as that. I like soybeans long term and cotton. Of course I am prejudiced because I farm and would like to make a profit on these commodities. So I hope the funds come back and stay a while. I always say that where the funds go so should I.
I decided to take the plunge recently and put a small amount (5% of my portfolio)into the commodity futures. I no longer trust stocks and bonds as the sole mode of growth.
about 15% invested in currencies
5% commodity futures
Ok Marty Party, coming at ya! No disrespect intended. Just wanted to start with a smile. Got a real different perspective on today’s market. The probability of volitility is very high on a yearly basis starting January first. Just think about all the events that could send the market lower this next year:
1. Sovereign Debt default.
2. Trade conflict with China. (Forecast by Celente)
3. New wave of residential Real Estate foreclosures.
4. Commercial real estate foreclosures.
5. Stimulus monies running out.
6. States begin defaulting on debt.
7. U.S. Terroist Event (Forecast by Celente)
8. Large scale monetary failure (Forecast by Celente)
9. Large interest rate rise due to no bidders on US bond debt.
10. Iran Conflict and others.
Ok Ok! There are several others, but these are the ones I consider very likely to bring the market considerably lower. And, just one could trigger several others. Don’t let a tear jerking bad short call glossed over with a fire side chat keep you from tripling your profits this year Mr. Weiss. Step over here Marty the fire is warm, and don’t forget those marshmallows. Hurry up! We got almost a 100% chance of rain this year. Shhhh! Nobody is listening. Lets call this marshmallow (FXP), Lets call this one (SEF), and Lets call the last one (SH). What are you talking about? Those were all of some of your guy’s calls over the last year. They’re not going to burn. It won’t be too long before it rains. Yep! I know, not even on the charts for the big up trend. Yep! Terrible yearly earnings. I know, I know! They could have an easy 20% swing up or down over the next year. What I need ya to tell me Mr. Weiss is: when will it start to rain, how much can we expect, and where is the bottom for jumping out? Sorry, no time for another log! What’s that? “O” 40% gold coin. Well someone told me it does better than gold stocks over the full volitility cycle? What’s that Larry? I don’t know s&^%^)^%t. he he!
Commodities, Foreign Currency, ETF’s, Stocks…all just paper or fiat money saying someone owes you. Having been born a farmboy and owning my own business for more than 40 years, I am fully invested in my business and the resources that surround me. My words of advise are invest in what you know or what you can put your hands on. If you think that piece of paper is worth the food I grow or transport when the $h!)( hits the fan, I wish you the best. Grandpa said it best….”invest in yourself”.
It seems logical to invest in silver and lithium(lithion batteries). lithium is self explanatory and silver is used up unlike gold and therefore more subject to the law of supply and demand.
I’m 100% in gold metal (20%) and just a few junior gold equities, (80%), carefully chosen, after lots of due diligence and 40 years in the investment business. For the intermediate term, I find it hard to believe that the USD should do well versus the Loonie, despite occasional blips in the dollar, all of my (relatively few) positions are in Canadian equities.
Martin, would be interested t o know what are your thoughts on my home land ,Australia ,as our PM spent 40 billion on proping up our economy ,I put that money into the ASX 200 ,now showing we have $1500 ,but I think the way they spent money interest rates will go past 6% in this country ,but what do you think .At present we are not buying another home ,but hopefully will in a couple of years
I have – and will continue to have – 80% of investment funds in physical commodities or stocks that produce them. The remaining 20% I have in AA financials in Australia. Indeed I have 100% of my family funds invested in OZ gaining protection and exposure to the world scene via gold and silver in ratio Au/Ag of 25$/1$ respectively.
of my net worth less my home
18 % gold coins
25% vineyard property outside US
18 % rental property outside US
33 % stocks
balance cash CDs, checking, Savings (not earning much)
Martin: I like dirt. Best commodity there is. I like whats under the dirt, water, oil, ng & coal. I like whats above the dirt, wind & sun. I like what grows in the dirt, wheat, corn, cotton & soybeans. I am a producer of oil & ng. I get one third of what grows in the dirt. My home is solar and the wind pumps the water I use. Green freek, nope, just a steward of the land before it became the “in thing”. Energy MLPs, Royality Trusts, energy stocks, metals, coal, urainium all yes. Grains & cattle, yes. I also consider “currencies” a commodity, the more one prints the less its worth, supply and demand. I study/work the markets/exchanges from two to four hrs a day and have for a long time. At times its very emotionally draining and takes it’s toll. A choosen path in life and it’s been good to me and my family. It’s like a dairy farm, you don’t know why in the hell they keep doing it but they still have to milk every day, eight days a week and I am glad they milk those cows, I like milk too. Life is great.
Happy trails Dr j
i have 92 percent in commodities
40% in gold stocks
30% in iron ore
22% in nickel and plat
As David Wark stated nicely, I subscribe because of the research capacity of your organization and clear disciplined thinking by you and your staff. Your observations are more significant to me than what your subscribers are doing.
Thank you for all that you do to make sense out of the often discouraging mish-mash of current day investing.
Personally I like to have at least 30% of my portfolio in commodities. 10% of those in crude oil, 5% in Nat Gaz, and the rest diversified between gold and agriculture.
Although I would avoid gold for now and buy some when it reach 950 $.
I would like to talk about the double tracking ETFs that I think may give some nice profits, for less allocation of own money, so for less risk, if our anticipations were right..
best regards,
shady sahyoun
I like gold etf gld and silver slv
stock jnj
sitting on the side lines with the thought we are headed for a crash in March
I don’t invest in any currencies or any futures at all simply because I don’t understand the buy and sell lingo that goes with it. It seems like a foreign language to me and I know of several people in my area that thought they knew what they were doing and they lost everything. I do subscribe to most all the regular weiss investment letters and do have about 60% of my investments in two gold and precious metals funds and a canadian trust (PVX) which pays a monthly dividend. The remainder of my holdings are in cash. I am pretty conservative and would be interested if weiss investments had a middle of the road service that cost ,say $495 instead of $2000 to $5000. OUCH !
DR. WISSE! I AM AT MOST A VERY HUMBLE MAN,AS TAUGHT BY GRANDPARENTS,WHO MOSTLY RAISED ME, AND ALWAY’S HAD ENOUGH FOOD SHELTER,MONEY AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST BY NO MEAN’S {LOVE} FOR ANY AND EVERYONE THAT ASK OR HAD NEED. GRAND-DAD NEVER MADE OVER 75cense AN HOUR, IN HIS LIFE OF NINTY YRS. OF LIFE !! I HAVE TRYED TO SET UP MY PORTFOLIO ALOT LIKE HIS WAS,BECAUSE HE WAS MY HERO AND HIM AND MY NANNY LIVED IN SOUTH ALABAMA THROUGH THE DEPRESION!! {FIRST} RULE I REMBER AND CONFESS THAT 100% OF ME AND ALL I HAVE IS GOD’S! AND HE GIVES IT AND HE TAKES IT AWAY! I’VE ALWAYS HAD ALL I NEEDED!{{{ SECOND }} I MAKE SURE I’VE GOT MY HOUSE ,TRUCK,LAND,BILLS [NO CREIDIT CARDS OR BANK CREIDIT] AND ENOUGH FOOD TO EAT FOR AT LEAST SIX MONTHS! WATER TOO PAID OFF OR AS FAR UP AS I CAN!!! {THIRD}}}!! I READ AND KNOW HOW TO USE THE WORD OF GOD [ THE SWORD OF THE SPIRIT &THE WHOLE ARMOR OF GOD [EPH.]-6 CHAPT.[11=22]}} AND A COUPLE OF GUNS TO HUNT WITH AND PLENTY OF SHELLS!! AND WHEN I TAKE CARE OF THE TRUE VALUABLES THAT MONEY OR IN A TUFF TIME EVEN GOLD CAN’T BUY <REVEL.-CHAPT.13} I LIKE TO HOLD SOME REAL SILVER IN ONE TO FIVE OUNCE BARLETS IN MY HAND!FOR INVESTMENTS THE AUSTIE , CANADIAN ,NEWZEALAN &MEXICIAN SHORT TERM BONDS, AND ESPICALLY THE CURRENCY IS IN MY OPION A SAFE BET, ALL ARE GOLD OR OIL BACKED !!BUT DOWN HERE WE ALL KNOW WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT GOOD LAND WITH WATER,FERTILE- UNPOLUITED SOIL,WITH HARD WOOD TIMBER IS AS GOOD A LONG TERM INVESTMENT AS EVER PROBLEY BETTER NOW THERE IS’NT MUCH LEFT ,AND THEN YOU CAN RAISE AND EAT YOUR COMMIDITES AND KNOW WHERE AND HOW IT WAS RAISED AND FED! 5DOE RABBITS AND 1 BUCK CAND FEED A FAMILY OF 4 FOR YRS.10-CHICHENS&1 ROOSTER GOES ALONG WAY,2 PIGS& 1 HOG WILL PRODUCE PORK FOR LIFE!! ALONG THIS LINE YOU CAN EVEN MAKE YOUR AN OTHERS BIO-DIESEL, AND BUILD A WOOL BURNING GASIFIER-GENERATOR AND MAKE YOUR OWN ELECT. AND SELL THE REST TO THE POWER CO. THEY HAVE TO BUY IT!! GRANDDADDY ALWAYS SAID IT IS NOT HOW MUCH MONEY YOU MAKE ITS ,HOW MUCH YOU SPEND AND HOW YOU SPEND IT !! WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE A PORTFOIIL OF STOCKS AT THE BROKER OR A NICE WARM HOUSE,WOOD WATER,FOOD, ELECT,AND MONEY ALL WITH NO BILL AND NOT HAVE TO WORRY WHETHER IT UP OR DOWN, OR IF YOU CAN CASH THEM IN ?? MARTIN I THINK MABEY 10 % OF MY ASSET’S OUGHT TO BE TIED UP IN SOMEONE ELES’S HANDS CAUSE!! THE SAYING GOES A BUCK IN THE HAND IS WORTH {THREE } IN THE BUSH !! AND IN HARD TIMES LIKE THESE IT’S MORE LIKE {1to20} BUT THEN I’M JUST A SIMPLE,HUMBLE,GOD FEARING,LITTLE MAN FROM THE ALABAMA*** OUT BACK*** GOD BLESS AND KEEP US ALL, WE DO AN WILL NEED IT !! THANK YOU DR. WISSE ,I HAVE ALWAYS AND STILL DO INJOY READING ALL THE MAIL FROM{{ YOU}} BUT NOT YOUR THIRD PARTY MAILING PROGAIM!!! {{{ JOHN OUT}}}
My 15 year experience in investing, (first with mutual funds) has been up and down and only now do i realize fully just how manipulated the markets are. I avoid mutual funds totally, very few managers beat their index and charges are too high. I use ETF’s a lot but I also limit my investment in any one stock to no more than 1-2% and have learned to take profits quickly rather than a “buy and hold” stance. RESULTS, market in 2009 UP about 60%, my portfolio more than DOUBLE that!
I am mostly invested in commodities but broadly diversified through ETF’s in various markets like Australia, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, even Russia but have NO investments in financial stocks or bonds, (might play them on the downside) using options. I also favour LEAPS options to benefit from long term trends. Areas i am currently researching include iron/steel and coal, water and agriculture.
In stocks I am widely diversified in rare earths, lithium, vanadium, moly, tungsten, oil, silver gold, potash, palladium, etc. and basically what I try to do is take profits on individual holdings at say 25% up to 100% until my original investment is off the table. My objective is holding free shares of 100 to 1000 based on price as a long term hold. I am also learning to cut any losers QUICKLY rather than holding on in HOPES of a comeback.
NEARLY 80% IN MINING STOCKS NATURAL RESOURCES GOLD AND SILVER
I lack the strength of conviction to sell out of a position, hence i use mutual funds only. I try to stay out of funds with US stocks. I have been into precious metals for past 25 years and a little Euro mutual fund since before Euro existed. I have somewhat expanded to include oils and China. I am uncertain when/how i will spend all this hoard of some $200K +owning a 300K 4 bedroom house of Canada as i am now age 58.
We have aboout 28% of our portfolio in gold etfs and commodities . Having lived through the great depression we value the historic value of gold and other natural resources. The remainder is in biasic such as Walmart and Medtronic, with a few foreign and small caps for diversity. Since 1995 this mix has served us-both in our eighties- very well. For the last two years, when I see a profit, I take it quickly, limit my losses to 10%, and remind myself it is only money, not our whole life
Years ago, when Cuba had just about worn out its sugar making equipment, I tried to invest in sugar. Sure enough, within about nine or ten months the price of sugar on the international market rose about three times. But it rose all at once, and by the time the price of sugar did rise, the funds I had alloted to investing in sugar were gone. There are more ways of investing in commodities now than there were at that time, but it is absolutely necessary to understand how they function to invest, rather than trade.
I think world demand for mineral resources and food products can only increase. I am invested in major international mining companies that pay good dividends. I also am monitoring closely the oil industry. Based upon both rumor and some reasonable research, the mid-east will face diminished oil supply in the near future, especially as world demand is increasing. When that happens, and gas reaches $5 a gallon, the pressure to drill in the Bakken reserve and offshore in the Gulf will become overwhelming. That will mean a big boost for US oil companies, such as Anadarko, etc.
I have no currencies in my portfolio. Like some of the others I am not very knowledgeable in this area.
Commodities should be in every portfolio, I put 1/4 of my investments into energy type shares where I believe the value will return a profit. Don H.
I have just begun investing, so I am just feeling my way. I have no commodies, just stocks. Some China, one brazil and 3 U. S. I have been looking at the bakken oil, silver, lithium and rare earth. I believe that something will happen.
I like commodities–RTP, FCX , CLR are three of my favorites.
Hello Dr. Weiss and associates–
I am invested in water, precious metals, energy, powershares Db Multisector. I would have to sit down and do a bunch of math to figure out the percentages–don’t have time to do that today. …OK, I did a quick math–hope I’m correct–
10% in energy
10% in precious metals (not counting physical silver and gold in my safe deposit box)
3% in the Powershares Db Multi-Sector, and
11 1/2 % in water.
I noted Alison Cline’s entry of 2-2-10 at 1:40 P.M. : “One of the drawbacks for me is environmental issues. I’ll be looking for suggestions on this blog.” oh–opps, I just got a call from a friend–gotta go–I DO have some suggestions for you, Since I have the same concerns as you do. I’ll entry them as soon as I can–prolly in about an hour or so.
Lisa R.
50-60% in oil, gas & precious metal (mostly mining) stocks. Natural gas and silver are the best at this point in time.
I don’t understand why you need to know what your readers hold before you commnent on the direction of commodities.
New Investor, have no commodities in our Portfolio. For the first time have tried Futures (INDICES)
and could certainly use more understanding on the way DOW, S&P, & NAS is calulated or understood on the culmination of the trades. I didn’t use trailing stops or stop losses. The Awesome Google Chart with time on the actual minutes is what I used to figure out where the time began and ended. My question – is this same Chart standard for all and used Global or is there a different one used by Boards of Trade in US? etc
From Tom Friedman’s column today in the NY Times:
“While the struggle between China and Google appears, on the surface, to be about Internet freedom, beneath the surface is a much deeper problem. As this newspaper reported last week, 34 American corporations have recently been targets of hacking attacks traceable to China. The C.E.O. of one of the technology companies that was hit, who asked not to be identified because he is still debating whether to keep doing business in China, said that in his case the attacks involved attempts to vacuum up source codes, designs, business plans, and anything else they could get their hands on. This industrial espionage emanating from China, the C.E.O. told me, “was the worst we have seen in 25 years.” As one U.S. official described it: “The penetration was very extensive and deeply troubling.”
Memo to China: You are playing with fire. Sure, the U.S. also has its hackers, but industrial espionage on this scale is not coming out of the U.S. If this continues, China will see more than Google pull up stakes. And how many U.S. companies in the future will ever want to buy Chinese-made software or computer systems, which might only make it easier for Beijing to penetrate their businesses? This hacking story is huge and brewing. If it explodes, at a time of rising tensions over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, fasten your seat belts.
Hello–I’m back–
My response to Alison Cline: I am also concerned about the environment. My very first investment with my broker was Florida Power and Light (FPL). They are not on any of the Safe Money or Dividend Superstars Example Portfolio, but I decided to invest in the company anyway. They are heavy into solar and wind power, so I decided to put my money where my mouth was. There are areas that I will not invest in no matter what the profit to be made due to negative impact on the environment: Open pit mines (gold, coal, or otherwise), coal power, anything that polutes or is not environmentally responsible. In addition, I will NOT invest in any tobacco companies — 60 years of smoking killed my mom! And my dad! So my rule for myself is–ethics first. But there is still a lot of good quality companies, ETFs, etc. to invest in. For instance, I hold some physical silver and gold–old US silver dollars and ‘junk’ old US silver quarters. A tiny bit of gold coins (not ones of great numismatic value.) Also Ishares silver and SPDR gold–I think that those are NOT invested in mines (Martin, If I’m wrong on that, please tell me.)
I also found that I can invest in water with a clear conscious as well– the world needs clean water! And the demand for it will keep going up, due to the world population and Global Warming. I would rather see us humans get a handle on Global Warming–but wether we humans the world over will cooperate and achieve that is another question entirely. I’ve also invested in some companies that should do well regardless of the economy–like Home Depot and China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (that one gets 2 birds with one stone–China, and a necessity!) Any way, that’s not a complete listing, but you get the idea…..
Also, Amber Dakar at the Money and Markets web site–she has an excellent department there–just click on the yellow ‘corner’ up at the top right corner of the home page, I think it says ‘financial planning’. There’s a lot we can do to improve our financial condition without violating our ethics or incuring undue risk.
In conclusion, I would like to commend you for your ’stick-to-itve-ness’ to your ethics. I believe with my whole heart and soul that our Creator will reward us for making ethical choices. I’m not talking about money here on this earth, but rather, that when I stand before God and give an accounting of how I treated this beautiful Earth He put us on, and charged us to take good care of (we’re supposed to ‘husband’ it, not abuse it), I will be able to say with a clear conscience that I did my best with what I had. I hope this helps,
Sincerely,
Lisa R.
I like currency crosses, non U.S pairs, lower spread cost ratio for the higher pip movement. Less distortion from political sound bites, news, institutional investors and central banks intervention. Entry and exit points after confirmed simple moving averages above or below trend lines short, medium and long term. In short don’ t fight the existing trend but use 2% to hedge and leverage your positions.
I have 20% in a basket of commodity currencies, 20% in hard assets gold and silver coins, and other collectables, 20% natural resources, 15% in commodities, 10% in currency options, 10% in currency crosses, and 5% in hedging my positions through reverse index leverageand adjusting legs of my spreads options when market conditions change.
I am a small farmer, I grow and market several thousands bushels of corn and soybeans so I have to deal with these commodities. Over the years I have learned that I should only grow and sell grain; I am in the farming business not in the gambling business. From my experience putting money into the commodities market is a short term gamble, the exception is gold.
John Glover,
I enjoyed reading your posting on 02/03/10.
I live in the Upstate of SC for the last 21 years. I grew up in the Netherlands and I remember vividly that my father had a large garden, which saved us from starvation during WWII. 4-5 years ago I started a garden here because I foresee a similar situation developing, when the USA goes bankrupt, after the USD collapses, following the crazy policies of the present government of trying to spend themselves out of a recession/depression.
The soil in the South is like ground brick and it takes a number of years of organic fertilization to get a good harvest. I use animal compost (rabit manure) and leave-mulch. So you better start now. I have 3000ft.sq and I can double it. It is hard work, but just as good as visiting a gym. ( I do that too).
My portfolio at the moment is as follows:
Gold Bullion 0%. I intend to buy 5-10% when gold retracts to $950.
ETF GLD 24% I intend to keep this as a Core investment
Gold Mining 7% I follow RWR, Larry and Casey. I intend to increase percentage.
Others 4% I follow RWR recos. I intend to hold some ETF-UUP for a short while because of PIIGS in Europe. Europeans flee again into US$ until they realize that US$ is a bad solution. Reason for RWR stoploss of UDN recently.
Cash in MM 65% I intend to invest 40% or more gradually, No point in keeping a fiat currency which will loose is PP (purchasing power) because of Helicopter Ben policies.
Total 100%
I look forward to seeing the Weiss optimum portfolio.
Thanks Martin for doing all this.
V.P.H
Currently I have about 70% in commodities, as my 401K only allows one commodity stock. It is a fertilizer stock. To be honest this isn’t the way would set up my portfolio, but as I stated my 401K only has one avalible so I went with what they offered for now. My personal believe is that you should have about 50% in commodities.
Hi Folks:
Keep up the good work. We are quite heavily invested in the silver market; my brother
purchases bullion and I usually purchase coins for easy resale on eBay. Probably have
somewhere between 15 and 30 lbs. of silver all of it purchased when the silver market
was under $10./ounce. While gold does not appear to show signs of doubling in my
lifetime, the demand for silver in various industries, is on the increase. Rapidly growing economies, specifically in Asia and Thailand specifically, show a burgeoning Middle Class which will add to the demand for Commodities, oil and gas, and Commodities associated with the previous wealth of the United States and the former lifestyles of its Middle Class folks, now somewhat depressed.
China is hauling ore and precious metals out of Australia by the boatloads, have already
built railroads in Africa to tap its natural resources and expect China’s demands for
Commodities alone, will put upward pressures on Commodities. For sure, when it comes to safer U. S. investments, more Commodities need to be included. India’s shortage of sugar
has been duly noted and we see no signs whatever that Commodities are not a sound
investment. If I had more disposable income at the moment, would likely put it in
more Commodities and more silver. Hope this is helpful. We’d like to see you highlight
what you think are the better Commodities investments for the short term and the long haul.
Best always,
Bonnie Reynolds
none. I feel this is too speculative for a LOL!
There is no recovery You will see the crash of 2010 You cannot keep puming money in. When the pumping of money ends by the fed then you will see the crash. Munical bonds will start to tank. I have been in the investment work for over 30 years. If you think you are going to make it threw this by holding stocks you will be killed. I look for this to all come about the third quarter of 2010 if not sonner. I myself have been in cash and silver since Dec 09. The only place you might look at as a long time investment is in the WI FI sector. We think the laptop will go to the big screen. If I want news or movies I go to my laptop not the TV.
Donald R Reynolds
About 30% in precious metals and mining of metals
no currencies. Need advice.
At age 75, having spent my youth in a concentrtion camp, I have lost all confidence in ‘paper’, whether currencies, stocks or retirement programs, I have converted 95% of my funds to U.S. numismatic (St. Gaudens) $20 gold coins for the long haul.
I own my home encumbered by a comfortble mortgage, plus two rentals, (one of which outright.)
Although in the short run, gold may go down (along with most everything else), I am sure that when the chickens come home to roost (astronomical national debt and printing of more paper currency) gold will come out on top.
At age 75, having spent my youth in a concentrtion camp, I have lost all confidence in ‘paper’, whether currencies, stocks or retirement programs, I have converted 95% of my funds to U.S. numismatic (St. Gaudens) $20 gold coins for the long haul.
I own my home encumbered by a comfortble mortgage, plus two rentals, (one of which outright.)
Although in the short run, gold may go down (along with most everything else), I am sure that when the chickens come home to roost (astronomical national debt and printing of more paper currency) gold will come out on top.
Van
When i hear some of your readers investing 80 % of their portfolio in commodities….I wonder about a bubble in the short term but of course in the long run we will run out and in the process prices will go up….But in my lifetime? I am 60 yrs old.
So I’ll invest 15% of my portfolio in commodities trough EFTs.
Cheers,
Pierre.
I currantly have two canadian natural gas stocks, and at this point am just watching and reading, and scaired to do anything.
can’t trust main street or wall street, even though I have investments outside of the US it
is still controlled by wall street. I have positions in the Canadian dollar etf (fxc), gold etf (gld) silver etf (slv) and oil etf (oil) all down big time, the austrilian dollar also, not to mention Neumont Mining(nem) all down big time, because the US stock market took a dive. And wall street manlipulates the whole thing, trading after hours, before hours, they laugh all the way to the bank (and thats somewhere off shore too).
I am a novice and I have also about 15% of my portfolio in currencies ETF You need to ride the volatility but if the dollar resumes its downward spiral then the commodity currencies should provide a good hedge.
I like oil and gas as well as natural gas. I also have precious metals and utilities. I dont know enough about currencys to invest there and somehow I don’t do EFT’s. I am diversided in Pharmacy and J&J and other stocks as well as gold stocks. Have cash reserve and don’t know what else to do. Also have annunities. Hope it all workes out as I’m old now! I don’t 20 years to recoup the losses I have had.
Hi Martin
I’m about 98% invested in commodities in the US, China and Canada. I’m pretty heavy
in gold and silver but also like oil, water, copper, uranium. I also hold investments in Gold and Silver American Eagle coins, some silver, gold and platinum bullion and a great
many mining stocks. I’m not the brightest star in the sky but with your help and advise
thiings have worked out pretty well.
Wishing you all the best.
Ed Bennett
I am heavier into potash companies IPI, POT, AGU, MON, some gold and silver (GLD, Maple Leaf Coins, SLV), water (ERII), oil for long term (XOM, HES), chemicals (DD), China drug store chain NPD, but mostly agricultural. No currencies. I mainly follow successful investors like Jim Rogers who has recommended potash and commodities. Eating will always be in demand worldwide. :)
Gold is real, paper money is worth whatever someone will pay for it today. Print me some gold.
Under such conditions as mentioned, is this a good time to open a 529 plan for future collage education? As grandparents, we are looking into some of the 529 plans, but haven’t seen anything and am not comfortable with anything that I have seen and read about. Whats is your suggestions?
Here in British Columbia, it was quietly announced in “the Province” newspaper late fall 09′, that a 40 year North America supply of natural gas was found in the north east again (yet despite that B.C. is 10 yrs. behind in hydro supply, it was capped!). The North West Territories is also sitting on an ocean of the stuff (let alone Alberta’s mammoth potentials), so clearly our dollar and energy prices COULD be strengthened by resources.
Brent.
All the Kings horses and All the Kings men can’t put
our Humpty Dumpty economy back together again-
Buy GLD, SLV, Energy, and Natural Gas = Fertilizer
We’re literally living on borrowed time- Fossile Fuels
Money with a garantee like the Crown is safe.The rest of the world’s money is worthless. That is why the king’s and queen’s invest rather in the crown of Switzerland, this information is unknow to the rest of the whole world.The whole world will be drawn in by the lies of this no garantee.
Gold certainly in long run for a tenure of next ten years. If there are dips itz chance to accumlate gold. Silver also can be accumlated. Oil Certainly yes for horizon of two years. And Emerging markets like Russia Brazil and India are also good place……..
Martin,
I like Metals. I have some SLV. Just sold in last 2-3 weeks GLD and some SLV because of the downturn. Probably will buy some later, but now mostly in Palladium, which has taken a hit the last few days, but I expect it to recover faster than most other metals.
I do have a couple of what looks like promising small not to widely known stocks, which in my opinon have great products that will eithe cause a buyout interest or potential to grow quite fast.
Rich
I have options on currencies as well as ETF’s and foreign denominated CD:s in commodity countries currencies. The dollar is headed for trouble and I am trying to hedge my investments. I also have an ETF shorting the S&P.
Gold and silver, I am 20% into CET in Canada. Bought shares of BP when it hit $29 on a side bet, and may add to it. Hard to pass up a bargain like that longterm. Still holding a chunk of inverse ETF shares that were suggested by one of the experts here in May of last year and have lost too much to dump it so if the next big crash the Weiss guys have been predicting ever does happen someday I may get back what I put into it. As for the USD, it is not going to inflate unless too much money is chasing too few goods and right now America is just not buying, it is broke. Using the US mint to conterfiet the USD as Helicopter Bernake is doing will only work if they can get it into circulation in the marketplace, not just buying their own treasury bonds. Even hiring the vast army of government employees they plan to pay with this counterfiet cash will take time.
Hi!
2 years with a good record would be ok.
Josef
I have learned interesting things from your posts…
Martin, The value of the S&P and Dow is essentilly the same $’s as in 2001 with out correction for inflation. I am interested in following your newest one million dollar venture, but I am not in a position to be paying another $1300 after I just paid $1300 to renew the Claus Vogt’s one million dollar portfolio. I can’t justify following two as I can bearly keep up with Claus. I highly respect Claus’ opinons and insight but I haven’t seen any real profit from his activities and investment stragities but I am hoping that he will have the insight available that you are “hawking” with you latest venture.
Any thoughts to pursuade me to do more or change or what?
Regards
Dennis