Please click here to give me your feedback!
It’s the single most important question any investor can answer right now — but before you answer, consider this …
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The U.S. economy is still crashing — GDP is now plunging at an annual rate of more than 6 percent …
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Home prices are still plunging, mortgage foreclosures are still soaring, and the crisis is now spreading like wildfire through the commercial real estate sector …
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More than 600,000 Americans are losing their paychecks each and every week, while the number collecting unemployment benefits is now at an all-time high …
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The failure of Chrysler — and the likely bankruptcy of GM by June 1 — threaten millions of jobs at these companies, their suppliers and at their dealerships from coast to coast …
And despite all this terrible news, the Dow jumped more than 200 points yesterday.
Unsurprisingly, Wall Street’s talking heads lined up to go before the cameras and proclaim that the bear market is over — and that you should now be buying stocks with both hands.
So the question of the day is:
Are they right? Has this great crisis suddenly and miraculously ended? Or is this nothing more than a temporary spike in a long-term bear market — and a golden opportunity to pick up contrarian investments that soar when stocks crash?
Tell me: What is YOUR view of this rally? More importantly, what’s your strategy now? What are you doing to insulate your wealth and to profit in this market?
Equally important, tell me how my staff and I can help you make better, more profitable investment decisions at a time like this …
And now that you’ve had the opportunity to read — or read about — The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide, I’d also love to get your feedback and answer any questions you have about how to protect yourself and your family.
Be sure to click here to post your responses. I promise that my team and I will move heaven and Earth to get you the best answers we can.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 639 comments… read them below or add one }
…like a bell in the fog….a lifesaver….keep ringing.
tnx
Question
should i convert a conventional ira to a roth ira in anticipation of new higher taxes
that are likely under the new administration ?
age : 57
Dr. Weiss,
What indicators might we use to recognize if/when a bear rally is about to turn downward again? I don’t want to start selling-off or shorting in response to a day or two of profit-taking, only to have the rally resume again.
Thanks
Erik W
5/5/09 Would it be prudent to invest in stocks or ETF’s in countries that are stronger financially than the US? Canada or australia come to mind.
i ordered your book not got it yet .i dont know what to do iv never had to do this befor i leave it inthe bank . im a disable vet dont know what to do no one helping me. age78 thank you and GOD Bless
Dr. Weiss. In my view a rally is a rally, even if it is a so-called “sucker’s rally” as some people call it. One can make a lot of money on these sucker’s rallies if one gets the timing right. I would not bet my savings on this but if one some has play money, this type of rally can be a great money making opportunity. Perhaps, you can advise on somewhat “safer” investments for those of us who is willing to take on more risk for an opportunity to make money. Cash is great and the abundance of it but I also feel this rally is my missed opportunity to make some quick cash. The return on my cash is less that 1% and the hedges are down.
Just rec’d a call that your book is ready for me to p/u at my local library. Look forward to reading it. In the meantime, a local financial planner that I was introduced to after I learned that 50% of Mom’s investments(at age 74) vaporized, which he took care of. I am unsure whether I should take his advice and enter into the fixed income portion of my portfolio. He charges either by the hour or takes a 1.25% of the portfolio value as he reviews the investments monthly. This will cost several hundreds of dollars which will then lessen any returns I could yield if at all. Most of my money, with the exception of two funds is in fixed money market accts. Even though the market is up 40% I feel uncertain. Your thoughts!!! I am 50 and have been working part-time most of the time going on 5yrs since being laid off back in 2004. Worked for WorldCom- so you know that sad story.
Dr. Weiss
The best thing that you can do for me is one of two things or possibly both:
one to to let us know the general idea that your organzation has on the market as far as going up or down as you’ve been doing.
the second thing would let us know what indicators would be best for us to get a better
idea how to realize it for ourselves.
I find your columns are informative and have been a great help with the market in general. The actual stocks I have been able to pick on my own but as I have mentioned before knowing up or down is of great benefit
Thanx
Joel
Dr. Weiss, Is there any way I can protect my IRA if the government tries to force it into a GRA(guaranteed retirement account)? Do you feel we will have an inflationary depression? When will be a good time to buy gold and gold stocks? When will be a good time to buy the corporate bonds and dividend stocks you talked about in your book?
Thank You
Karl V
I will have about 2k a month to invest. Where should I invest penny stocks, gold, silver, oil, options?
Dear Martin,
My husband has a fixed annuity worth $245,000.00. We get 3% interest. The insurance company is Lincoln National. This insurance company has been down graded. If we cash in the annuity we will have to pay the government $45,000.00. We thought we would cash it in and put the money in a treasury only money market. If we keep it in the insurance company and this company goes down we could loose it all. What do you think we should do? Thanks, Patti
Dr. Weiss-Nothing has changed in the market. I have been waiting 5 months for a re-fi.Neither FICO or LTV is a problem. Chrysler is now being allowed to fail.What changed? Banks are setting money to pay bonuses. Our housing melt down has worsened. We are persuing a losing cause in Iraq etal. And yet the market continues to climb. When do we recognize the emperor is naked?
What is the safe means to protect IRA funds if we go into high inflation where money becomes about worthless !
Dear Dr. Weiss;
I am nearing retirement and have been laddering I series bonds over the last nine years.
These are averaging about 6.25 percent. Will these be a good investment and could they be considered part of my cash in your portfolio recommendations. Also why don’t you recommend a larger portion of the portfolio be in gold as it is the only thing that is not fiat money based and should hold its purchasing value at least.
I appreciat your warnings and they have saved me considerable funds.
I have been invested in inverse ETF and with the market going up my stock continues to fall. Should I stay invested until the market falls, make changes or just what? Billy.
Hi there Dr Weiss,
The dollar seems to be weakenening against sterling and yet the fundamentals of the Uk economy in my opinion are even worse than the US, do you forsee a run on the pound? When this bear market rally ends and markets tank do you think we will see a rush back into US dollars like we did last year???
As the Government can control the price of Gold through trades it is making through large brokerage firms, it is my belief that such trading is done on the various exchanges also. Perception is Reality is the order of the day, and whether that perception is being created by the media, the administration, or Market manipulations, one must not ignore the man behind the curtain and his puppets.
Martin,
I bought SKF at 95. Should I keep it ?
Should I buy oil (UCO) at these levels ?
Thank you to give me your valuable opinion.
markets rarely take any notice of reality. The continuing slowdown gets worse, companies are going to the wall and individuals are losing their jobs.
Result is fear:
and that drives the market more than anything else
So the shares rally – so that the same investors who messed things up can make some money while the rest of the world slows down. So, in my opinion, reality is a short term boom that will inevitably downturn again. BUT, it will start to improve long term at some stage: the question is when? Any ideas on that?
I notice you are always negative and market is going up oe you are forcast market 2 month ahead.
I’m not buying into this rally as being sustainable. I still believe in cash right now, and even though some of my money is making only 2%, I know interest rates will turn up again, so I’m willing to be patient. There is no change in any of the economic data being presented to indicate the economy is turning around for the better. The only thing that is different is the way the media is spinning the data. People wake up — you are being manipulated. Google pending home sales, and you will bring up similar articles about an unexpected rise in pending home sales even last October and November. People are still losing their jobs. It is hard to find a job, and they are low balling salaries right now. As for the pending home sales numbers that were just reported — I say big deal. Pending home sales are a pipe dream. It is not a sale until it closes. I was looking at homes for sale last week here in Scottsdale, and while there are some closings, many are still falling out of escrow (the buyer is running for the hills for whatever reason), and prices are still being reduced.
Dr. Weiss. I was very impressed with your book and have passed it on to my brother for his edification. My wife and I are leaving tomorrow for four weeks in Europe. I’m concerned about the relative direction of the US dollar vis-a-vis other world currencies, especially the Euro. I thought that the dollar would appreciate, and bought an ETF (UUP). Of course, so far I’ve been wrong, but I still believe the dollar will strengthen. I would be grateful for your current thoughts on this matter. Thanks
the stock markets worldwide rarely take any notice of reality. As the continuing slowdown gets worse, more companies are going to the wall and individuals are losing their jobs.
Result is fear: and that drives the market more than anything else. Shares rally and climb in value – so the same investors who messed things up can make some short term money while the rest of the world slows down. So, in my opinion, the reality is a short term boom that will inevitably downturn again. BUT, it will start to improve long term at some stage: the question is when? Any ideas on that?
Since I started doing stocks around 4 years ago, the one thing I noticed is that most of the time market is acting in the irrational manner – stocks are going up in down without tight connection to the daily news. It is more interpretation of the news that drive the market. And I guess interpreatation is all credibility thing. CNBC and its upbeat clarifications of what is going on seems to have creditability in the people eyes, or may be it is the only information that is available to majority of people
Dear Martin,
I received your book, from the few pages I read I can assure you that’s fantastic, well written but more importantly it has been written with the heart…
Just a question , the book is for America and for American people but you think your steps are valid for European’s markets as well?
Cheers
Mario
Martin — I’ve been protected from any loss by following your advice and switching everything into short term treasury money market funds. The interest is a pittance and except for inflation, I’m not on the losing end. I am deep into retirement, 84 years young, have a reverse mortgage with an available balance of twice the value of my investments. My large house may be too much for me to handle now, and I’m considering a retirement community of some sort. I can use additional income rather than tap my reserves or reverse mortgage — but my feeling is that the market won’t turn until the late 3rd quarter or the 4th quarter of this year. Martin — each of us has different needs and objectives. I am fairly sure your fans include more retirees than just myself — so perhaps some assistance with retirees needs is in order and would be welcome. Thanks for suggesting when I should get out. I did!
The Book is EXCELLENT. I have moved monies from a poorly rated bank thanks to your book and am researching where to buy short term bonds. I urged my business partner not to dive back into the stock market yet and need to know how to “roll over” some stock I have in a deferred compensation fund to a safer fund that is also tax deferred.
Hi Martin,
I’d love you to remind us of the typical signs to look for that a stock rally might fall apart. That would be really useful. Thanks a lot; you’re doing a great job.
You asked, “What are you doing?” 1) I’ve read the book; 2) I have the majority of our money in the safest institution I can find (I plan to move some of it to a short-term Treasury fund in the near future); 3) I am purchasing some junk silver; 4) I have a little cash money in a safety deposit box; 5) I am active in the market as a trader with a small portion of my funds, using ETF’s and Elliott Wave Theory; and, 6) I paid off the mortgage. I do not have a 401K or an IRA. Anything else I should be doing? Thank you and your organization for being a light in the darkness.
Martin – in my opinion, this is a classic sucker’s rally, and I’m advising everyone I care about with significant equity exposure to sell aggressively into it. The hype I hear every day on MSNBC is absolutely mind boggling. One of their talking heads went so far as to call this a new bull market the other day!
Here in Geneva, IL (far west suburban Chicago), the retail vacancies are increasing all the time, and this is a very prosperous area. This is the calm before the commercial real estate storm headed our way.
wall street is just trying to lure people into investing knowing it;s a bad investment. what is there to indicate there is safety in investing in this economy. as the auto indrusty has failed. the big companies failed the banks in a mess why would anyone in their right mind
invest.
I couldn;t even if i wanted to and wouldn;t if I could. I am like so many others. barely making it by and I see no let up in the future. these plans he is making is setting us up for even worse than we have now. The future looks bleek right now .
Apropos of the Wall Street rally, listen to what Buddha had this to say to his disciple Ananda, “Verily I say to you Ananda, all is ephemeral, all is ephemeral.”
Hey ! Marty thanks for getting me through 06/ 07/ 08/09
even though I saw what was coming you gave me hope and clarity last year I was caught inside by a few “BIG WAVES” but managed to paddle pack out I’m ok now thank’s to you and can afford to head for the cook islands for more surf adventures peace bro “BIG” Paul Moretti
Watch out for June in that bad things are around the corner for the markets. I’m still down from my entry point in SH, but it will turn around and pay big. Be patient just a little longer.
I believe that this current rally is a classic “bear trap” and many investors will be hurt badly when the market “tanks” this summer. Sell what you can and get out while there is still time, unless you are a seasoned trader who is able to make quick profits.
I, feel they should have been helping our senior citizen,than giving
funds to Corporations,that have their money in another Country.
They are hurting all,it is thr American people that have retired and
the men&women in the Arm forces that need help. Not a CEO of
a Company.
Wandorer F. Collins
I GUESS I FEEL PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS MOST OF THE OTHERS. I AM CONFUSED RIGHT NOW AND THE MEDIA MAKES ONE FEEL THAT YOU ARE MISSING A BIG OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A FORTUNE BUT I AM WITH YOU AND THINK THAT THERE IS MORE TO COME AND IT WON’T BE PRETTY. THE MARKET IS STARTING UP TO FAST IN VIEW OF THIS PRESENT DANGER AND IT IS ALWAYS THE LITTLE GUY THAT WAITS IN FEAR AND THEN JUMPS OUT IN FRONT OF THE FALLING SKY BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY ARE MISSING OUT AND GET THEMSELVES CLOBBERED. ONE CAN NOT PICK TOPS AND BOTTOMS BUT ONE CAN BE PRUDENT AND SIT IT OUT FOR MORE CONFIRMATION. NOTHING GOES UP FOR EVER, SO I WILL WAIT TO SEE THE PULL BACK AND WHERE IT GOES BEFORE I VENTURE BACK IN THERE.
I’m not an expert, I will simply say my opinion even though I could be wrong … I don’t understand how this rally continued for this much time: if it doesn’t fade after the stress tests are annouced this week, then I think it’s a “Weimar/Zimbabwe” signal to introduce us to the hyperinflation …
Bear market rally/fibonacci retracement. All indexes have swung to overbought on a weekly chart and are in a dangerous position. Sentiment has swung to bullish with everbody expecting just pullback, but no retest. Looks like a set up for at least a retest this summer. They are running very speculative stocks and this will end badly. I am buying gold and silver and will short the market on a break of the trendline on a daily chart which should be a signal of a resumption of the bear market.
I am just wondering about inflation?
with the creation of all this money
by the Fed when will inflation take off/
Inverse ETF’s are starting to look very attractive ..some such as SKF are breaking 52 week lows. Do you an uncoming opportunity to take advantage…? Feeling motivated to buy at such lows.
I converted my IRA to gold proof coins in Feb 2008. My Canadian RSP is in cash and I’m seeking input on what to do with it. I can only buy Canadian listed securities. Am considering ETF’s based on agriculture, energy and gold bullion. I’m reading Ultimate Depression Survival Guide now; it’s tragic how heard mentality and unbridaled optimism leads to corruption. Great book.
-49 year old small business owner, May 5th 2009
Pulled my money out of the stock market last March. Wished I had done it earlier! Money now in Cash and Bonds. Currently playing the waiting game, trying to figure out when to get back into the market???
Warren Buffett has forecast massive inflation, yet without a timeline, so we’re in for huge tax increases or inflation and with a misinformed Democratic Congress, I can’t forsee any massive spending cuts, so what could we do to survive another experience from the Jimmy Carter years?
Reduce debt service and keep as much cash as possible and maintain a strict budget, or? What happens to families with houshold incomes less than $72k a year?
The American voters need to educate themselves and stop electing people who continually spend tax money on wasteful projects. Regardless of the party affiliation, no lawmaker should serve more than two terms. If it’s lawful for the POTUS, it should be for all elected officials in the Federal Government.
yeomans work Martin..for years, some of us knew this was coming and yet so courageous humane few like yourself were willing to stand up…keep it coming…:)
Dr Weiss:
Appreciate Your book,as far as the market is concerned I think that the economy is still in bad shape ,banks need MORE MONEY, unemployment still high and believe that we should wait for the CAPITULATION,what do You say ????
I think this bear market rallye will last until summer, as the general mood has lightened up a bit recently. Also, from an Elliotwave perspective the second arm up is still missing. Thus there is a chance for short-term traders. However your are right that the bear will come back forcefully when people realize that it’s much worse than they thought!
Shouldn’t this be a good place to buy the SRS since Commercial
Real Estate is now tanking?
Agree with you and the remaining sane analysts..the situation remains dire and may well worsen again despite all the timely and orchestrated rhetoric from all over that things are on the mend, prospects improving, inventory cycle to assist future growth etc etc , bla bla bla !
I have a few kilograms of Gold purchased 20 years ago.
And a couple of hundred thousand Dollars in cash.
I am 78 years old .
To protect everything for my children
What should I do
I am convinced that this is a false rally based on false perceptions, while fundamentals continue to deteriorate. That being said, it’s a gift to traders who are able to ride it for profits (using stops under positions) and also, for investors who still have income generating positions they have held, but will now have a great opportunity to unload them at higher prices. I intend to raise cash during this refreshing event and at some point, go short with some of it and put the rest in short term treasury money funds. The real issue is TIMING! One must never take their eye off the ball!
Thanks for all your helpful information Martin, especially regarding the banks. I haven’t seen any other advisories (and I read quite a few) that have done what you have done to educate and provide practical solutions for everyday banking needs in the midst of this crisis.
My BEST to you! Lynn
I have been following most of your advice for the last 4 years. However, I still believe in trend following. I have bought the Steel ETF, lumber, slv @ $9, and a few others that are showing open gains of 34% and will close these position if the market falls more than three days or 10%. I have also been following a spread strategy by buying the strong companies on the DOW (xom,jnj,pg,wmt,mcd,ibm) and using DOG as a short position for the weaker stocks. My goal is to protect prinipal and collect the 3.6% dividends. So far I am up overall but yesterdays rally in “poor” stocks closed the gap. My “open” position on EUM is down 30% and I feel terrible that I took this short position in an up trend. I also own LQD and “insured municipal funds”. Comments?
I am total agreement with you, this is a classic, “Bear Trap.” The best investment today is buying the Iaqi dinar. It has an intrensic value of $4.00 U.S. and is currently available at a rate of 1,180 per $1.00 which means within 3 to 5 years you can expect your $1.00 to appreciate to $4,720.00. When the U.S. first “freed” Iraq the Iraqi dinar before U.S. involvement was $3.50 per dinar. After being, “freed” the dinar fell to 1,680 per $1.00.Point of information Iraq has more oil then Saudi Arabia and Kuwait added together. It’s national debit is $0. When these inflated Obama U.S. dollars work their way through the economy you will have excessive inflation within the U.S. which will add to the value of the dinar.
You are & have been right too long to ignore. I sold ALL my stocks shortly after the .com crash & it saved me about 1/3 my retirement money. Thank you very much!
I work for TVA and I’m looking at retiring soon–My pension is a defined benefit plan–On my part I’ve saved up real hard on the Annuity side– problem is once I retire my pension is locked in and I can’t get to it no more—-should I leave my money alone in there or pull some of it out –I keep thinking that the dollar will be trashed—if that happens my Annuity could become worthless
I am not in the market in any significant way at the moment – it is just too scary. However, when I look at the 2000+ point growth in the TSX and DJIA in the last couple of months, culminating in yesterday’s big jump – I do begin to wonder if I have missed that “once in a lifetime opportunity to buy some wonderful stocks at bargain prices” that all the investment pundits have been talking about. Others are saying that we are about to enter a storm of inflation as the mountain of paper (fiat) money gets absorbed into the US and Canadian economies – and gold will go through the roof in sympathy. I’ve been reading about $2000 / oz gold for a couple of years now and we haven’t got halfway there yet. The fact is that no one seems to know what is really going on. Mark Carney – the Gov. of the Bank of Canada has made all sorts of prognostications that have been proved wrong. Ben Bernanke has the presses running 24/7 printing money. The investment newsletter writers keep churning out their recommendations – but when you look at their model portfolios they are generally swimming in negatives. Didn’t they see this coming? All in all, I’m very, very skeptical and quite fearful. However, if I had some money that I could afford to lose, I’d probably invest with well-known names like GE, P&G, J&J, Walmart. One thing for sure is that fear and greed will always be with us – and I’m not immune from either I might add. The events of the last month shows me that fear is beginning to take a back seat again to greed. Short memories?
I’ve just ordered your book. Like Billy Jones, I’m heavily positioned with an inverse ETF (in my case, FAZ, 3X inverse financial sector) which is so far down with this monster rally and all, I’m chagrined to admit how much. Doggedly hanging on, wanting to believe the market’s next down leg is coming and I can salvage my savings. I want to see America recover, but building on a rock-solid foundation, not the current still-shifting sands. You and a few select others convinced me we’ve a massive unwinding of unsustainable financial practices yet to come.
Thanks for all you do
Stuart
Dear Dr. Wiess,
Read your comments regarding the looming Insurance failures, and I just wanted to add a quick headsup to small business people who bought in to a state sponsored insurance co-op. Per comments from Safe Money, I sold my 27 year old company in the Spring of ‘01 [I have thanked God for you and your Dad more than once]. From ‘89 through ‘95, I paid a $175.00 yearly membership to be a member of Associated Insurance of Kentucky. It saved about 18 to 20 percent a year on total workman comp. premiums. In ‘03, I recieved a letter asking for my share of the 95 million failure of A.I.K. Long story short, the state of Kentucky sued over 10,000 members and former members [most mom and pop businesses] for the Enron type loss. We paid out thousands, but many were forced into bankrupsty. Bottom line is, not only can you not count on your state… don’t trust them either!
Warmly, Spencer Balentine
P.S. To anyone reading this – “LISTEN to Martin Weiss, and you’ll be okay!”
Dr Weiss, why are we not talking about the agriculture industry? What has the credit crunch done to our food chain. Prices at the store are down but whats on the horizon. If our nation’s farm folk cant get money for crops why are we worring about profits
i have remained on the sidelines as I believe we are in a bear market rally and no more. Further, if there is just one unexpected, high profile failure accompanied by the continuing deterioration of the general economy we could see a dramatic plunge in the markets. Remember there remains a massive amount of derivatives hanging by a thread that potentially could implode on the world economies. Obama has stuck his finger in the dam and thus far halted further mortgage/derivative breakdown.
The shining green light will emerge if and when housing starts begin again…Steve C
As a real estate appraiser working for many different banks I can tell you what I see. The rush to refinance is, in my opinion, another way for the banks to cash in on the poor suckers who are over their heads in ARM style vehicles. The value of the average home keeps dropping more rapidly than I have ever seen in my 20 years as an appraiser. Sure people are applying for refinancing but if the banks are not willing to forgive any principal on the loan the exercise is futile. Ex: 450,000 mortgage on a house bought in 2007 @ 600,000……the house today is worth most likely 475,000 at an 80% loan to value on a refi..the owner has to come up with an additional 70,000 or have the bank forgive 70,000 in principal. That is not going to happen. More smoke and mirrors. More foreclosures. No one has mentioned the baby boomers either who want to sell their homes and move to a warmer climate!!! 100,000 people are turning 65 a month !! Many of them have NO MORTGAGE…they will sell at a lower price and pick up a deal in the sun shine belt…further depressing prices. Worst is yet to come !!
Thanks for your valuable insight. God bless you.
I am with Lyn on this one. To add to those comment- Look at the SPX from when it made a second peak at 1440. Then it came crashing down to the 667 area, where it rebounded.
It has since added 240 points or so. The main problem here is the volume is much lighter in this rally than in Oct./Nov. 2008 going down through these same price levels. Further, 960 in the SPX is a mere 0.382 retracement of this move. The rally will most likely fail at or before this point.
I believe we are in a bear rally and u cannot be short or you will have your head handed to you. You should be out of the market if you really want to be shorting for the next leg down. Stay long until the dow & or the S&P breaks below the 22 day EMA & bad news starts again.A market can remain irrational and go against your shorts longer than your account can remain solvent.
god bless you all.
Is your bank list up to date? I noticed Bank of America is not on the list. Additionally, is it a good idea to spend the money and re-finance our home due to the low rates, if we are unable to sell it? Or do you feel deflation is king and can not be overcome by the current polices?
Thanks for your response
Take a look at the Crash of 1929-1932, during which there were 6 cycles of Boom and Bust which eventually brought the market down 89% from the 1929 high. This is clearly the first of many ripples from last October.
This rally is phony; it’s based on wishful thinking. It mirrors the *appearance* of things getting better due to the government’s multi-trillion dollar bailout programs. Money is being created out of thin air, and is filling billions of dollars of balance sheet “holes.” The fact that astronomical debt which can never be repaid is being created, or that the problems are simply being papered over, means nothing to Wall Street. All it cares about is that new money is arriving on the scene, a lot of it is heading Wall Street’s way, and that a lot of “risk” is being taken over by government.
I recently read an article claiming that this current surge in the DOW is driven mostly by individual “do-it-yourself” investors, and the institutional investors are still very wary. I know that last year record numbers of investors left mutual funds to “go it alone.” I suspect that because of this the markets are even more unstable than usual, responding to rumours and smoke and mirrors like never before.
Waiting patiently and looking at inverse ETFs ….
media spin is propping up people’s opinion of “things are better”. I am not convinced. I’m still in cash, gold and palladium with a few stocks i.e. McDonalds, Wal Mart. Don’t know when to get back in market but will be watching your suggestions.
I am wondering the same thing. All of the economic information says we should be seeing the Dow drop in ways we have never seen before, yet..hear we are with it soaring. My thought…there is not way it can keep moving in an upward manner with all the economics going downward. Is America not waking up?
Stocks,like everything else in this country,are priced in U.S. Dollars.If you print enough Dollars then the Dollars will devalue and all things priced in Dollars will rise.This is probably the reason the stock market is rising.I have read that stocks do well for citizens in banana republics where they suffer massive hyperinflation.I think I would rather have my savings in stocks of companies with real assets than hold Dollars that are backed by nothing but the promises of politicians of a bankrupt govt.I do have some cash and it worries me more than my shares in some great companies.
If you’ve been listening to our high profile financial experts (Bernanke & Buffet come to mind) you’ll hear that the worst is over but the road to recovery will be a long one. Is it that most people hear only the first part of the message? So is this rally real? Of course it is. I suspect that the market is a bit ahead of itself and a pullback should be equally real. So if the question is about whether the market can sustain a long term bull market from this point on, well, no.
OTOH we’re all used to bad news now and take it in stride. If the bad news doesn’t arrive too fast our collective positive attitude will remain intact and our market should drift higher over time.
I do not understand this rally at all. As you pointed out, economic indicators do not point to an end of the financial crisis. People are buying homes because they are getting them dirt cheap.
But there are a lot of people out of work and are trying to maintain a modest lifestyle.
The banks have not offered interest rates attractive enough for people to save their money. You might as well keep it at home.
Food Prices are high and most families have to decide what favorite foods they will continue to eat and which ones they must give up so that they can meet their monthly food budget.
I think if gas prices begin to skyrocket again, it will put the economic crunch on people and again they will pull back from spending.
People have been shocked into considering, “do I really need to buy this or not.” Buying is more discretionary now; no more sprees.
I tend to think that Wall Street is playing a money game with those with big pockets and are purposely making the market look enticing to the “little investor” to try to capture their money.
I missed this rally and have some regrets not getting in, but why such a rise when economic factors don’t support this financial optimism.
Martin,
Thank you so much for the information, no l do not believe in the rally, l was trapped last time with high buys in the mid 8500s and as soon as we go to 8500 l will close flat or alternatively take a loss if it dosn’t look like we will make it.
I think 9000 has potential after the next pullback, everyone will jump in believing the news and then the big institutions will start dumping rapidly.
I was short in 2003-04 and got creamed, l seem to be repeating the same path, but l will add to my shorts before the weekend.
As long as l don’t get cleaned out this time l will have money to invest with you as soon as l have seen that 4850-5800 area, which l believe is next.
I also believe that this bailout money is not reaching business but instead being used to give to the city boys to make a hard rally happen so that the powers that be can liquidate their own positions.
Great……….the poor investor sucks up the mess again.
Regards
Angela
Hi, Marty!
My view, like yours, is it’s another trap. The only stocks which should be purchased, if any at all, are those for which we have “special information,” from specialized letters,which the public never sees. And even this is risky.
Everybody who knows me thought I was crazy decades ago buying bars of gold and stashing it in Switzerland. Look what it’s worth today. My father was ready to have me committed when I bought 20,000 shares of Chrysler near its bottom when Iacocca took over. That call was based on 2 things: Chrysler made the Jeep, and it also made some very good cars. We used 6-cyl automatics Plymouth Vikings and Dodge Darts in a taxicab fleet, and these cars held up better than ANYTHING. (the worst was Ford=Fix Or Repair Daily.)
Yet. today I lead a very simple life, have “been everywhere and done that” and there just isn’t any need for more money. I drive a car that’s 45 years old, and I can’t stand these new cars of today–wouldn’t have one if you gave it to me.
My recommended book, which everyone should read, is “The Long Emergency” by Kunstler. Have it on my kindle2.
– js
My feeling about this is that for the next few months things will roll. It is spring and summer and every one is happier regardless of the things going on economically.
this is a classic bear market rally, i just moved my 401K today into treasuries! i’ll wait for dow 6500 or lower to put it back into stocks. just like the 30’s there were powerful rallys and they can go on longer than we usually think. i still think the banks have more massive losses due to housing, commercial losses, and as you indicate derivative losses are increasing. and, the big question is if we will continue to sell us gov’t long bonds as we attempt to borrow massive amouts of cash over the next year. and, then the banks are tightening credit of all kinds so how can an economy that runs on cheap credit grow when the credit is removed? b of a even cut my 50k credit limit, but i called and complained and they restored most of it. They said since i wasn’t using the line they cut it….so imagine those who live on their credit cards…how they must be getting their access to credit cut! i have read up to 2 trillion in credit lines will be cut this year. how can consumers keep the economy growing when they are living on credit and that credit is being removed. I am buying a house next week in phoenix for all cash! it may not be the bottom, but it is priced at 1995 levels so i decided to go for a house. i know you believe this is not the bottom-i know the second wave of option arms are just starting, but i figure it is 2-3 years before the second bottom can occur. i also don’t trust having all my cash in the banks or even in gov’t treasurys, so although i am moving cash to one you listed as a strong bank…i decided i’ll move a portion into a house and not pay rent anymore. i figure i’ll cut my expenses in 1/2! i have rented for 15 years and saved so i feel lucky to be able to own a house for cash for under 82k plus i get the 8k igov’t credit! the house sold for over 200k during the bubble! I figure i have 8k in downside protection by buying this year. phoenix is the heart of bubble land and just now are buyers coming out in droves. prices are down over 60% i figure!
The American Economy is headed for the greatest economic crash, depression and social upheaval in all of world history! With a total debt of 40trillion+(both public and private), what else can you expect?!!
This is a false rally. Very few, if any, of the so-called analysts are looking at personal debt. If the consumer that ‘drives’ the economy, is in deep personal debt, with assets that are now worth significantly less than the purchase cost, and little or no savings, compounded by the strong possibility of losing his/her job, where is the prospect for an ‘honest’ recovery?
Best we can hope for is to eliminate personal debt, tighten the belt, buy gold and fight to stop the confiscatory tax and spend policies of our ‘government’.
Thank you
Cash is trash when you have a total fiat currency with only the backing of dishonest polticians willing to print any quantity.People have got to get it out of their heads that holding cash,U.S. Dollars, is some kind of safe place while holding real assets(stocks,houses,real estate,commodities,etc) is risky.If you have any savings then you are invested,even if that is in U.S. Dollars.If you stop to think about it U.S. Dollars have to be about the riskiest investment you could hold.I mean,GM common shares, have to be less risky in the long term.GM isn’t in near as bad financial conditon as the U.S. Govt.
I think that this rally is a rally, pure and simple. I won’t trust anyone with anything until I see a trend develop–and I don’t think we’ll see one develop here because there is still too much uncertainty in the market, too much doubt. As far as companies like GM and Chrysler are concerned, to me they were DOA long ago, merely living on life support from fools buying corporate bonds. They would have been allowed to die naturally were it not for the rude intrusion of this financial crisis. I think that I’ll continue to sit on the sidelines until the markets calm down, until US finances regain some composure and people venture outside once the storm has passed.
Dr Weiss, your book is the most worthwhile available. I believe your fear that we’re going further down. I’m 80 and have a lot of my few assets in Treasuries. Bought a little Spdr Gold ETF to go with the Eagles I’ve had for years. My major concern is my pension from Northrop Grumman and whether the government will grab my IRA and put it in their sinkhole. My paltry stock holdings are hanging in for now.
Seems to be alot variation of opinion about the usfulness (or not) of 3x etfs. It would be good if you could cover them at some stage. My thoughts are it all depends on the rate of movement as to the possible increase in either faz / fas.
Keep up the excellent work.
Dear Dr. Weiss,
I appreciate your pessimism, yes, the economy is hardly out of the woods just yet. This is no doubt a technical and liquidity driven rally, spearheaded initially by shorts (like me) who covered, followed by the “slower” money, aka, the mutual fund complex, who were underweight equities (along w/ hedge funds) all of Q1. This over exuberant rally merely mirrors the negative exuberance we saw in the fall of ‘08, and the 2 month stretch from January until March 9th. I have “legged” into inverse beta (short) ETFs, only to be crushed, apparently, this market will let us know when it’s good and ready to stop its current rally. Everyone, including you and I, believe it is B.S., which is exactly why it continues, and will continue until everyone throws in the towel and goes long. Funny how capitulation works both ways….
Kind Regards,
M.C.
Do you think that this run up in the market is inpart do to the PPT intervention?
Dr. Weiss,
I have to agree with some of the comments above. A rally is a rally. If I knew we had 1700 points of upside (maybe more?) from the low, I would have gone back in albeit not with all my savings. I still need to invest for 8-10 years for retirement and need to maximize my returns. I understand that we may be looking at a correction again in the near future. However, Had I bought in at 6400 on the Dow and are now looking at 8100, with a potential 10-15% correction, I would still be better off than just sitting on the sidelines all this time. I think that oil & commodities are a safe bet for 1-2 years down the road. What say you?
i previously wrote you that i thought a depression would be a good thing for environmental
reasons. i published a letter to my local paper to that effect in 74. i oppose the bailout because it is meant to stop a depression but in any case i think it is a stupid thing to do..
i am following your advice but in a conservative way ie i am not buying etf short funds but i have sold a substantial amount of my stocks 1/2 way in this rally & put it in money funds.
my strategy is the following if the market crashes i intend to but a commodity etf or etn preferably oil and and as a second choice copper. i intend to buy oil if it hits $30 per barrel as a long term hold.
what oil etn’s would you reccommdend that r safe & have low rates? is barclays a safe bank for their etn’s? could u do the same for copper? if u do not trust etns due to the banking crisis maybe u could reccommend a couple of etf’s
I was aggresive with our traditional and ROTH IRA and saw them lose alot of money (by my standards). Traditional IRA was at 21k and now stands at 16k and my ROTH IRA went from 11k to 6800.00. I was contributing $100 a month into the ROTH but suspended it for now for two reasons. My hours at work went from 40 to 30 and I lost one of my tenants back in December 2008 and haven’t been able to fill the vacancy. I own two rentals. I moved my ROTH to a money market fund, but left the traditional IRA as it is. I’ve read that the dow could go to 10k. Should I reverse my ROTH back to aggresive or leave as is? Should I contribute to our traditional IRA at this time?
Dear Martin:
The DOW? First, I am in my 80th year…have been investing for nearly 60 of those years and have never seen such a convoluted mess, no rhyme, no reason whatsoever. One thing is for sure: logic is NOT a consideration for current investors. One reason is the large number of corporate officials that are charged with investing employee pension funds when in reality they don’t know the market from a head of cabbage. Institutional investors feel compelled to put withheld payroll deductions to work. Finally are the habitual private investors who cannot be comfortable with cash—a kind of addictive investor who has probably lost a significant portion of his investment and knows he can’t recoup his losses with a cash credit in his brokerage account.
Income property? We own four 3-bedroom, 3-bath, 2-story single familiy homes in a metropolitan area. They are clear. Two years ago they were each worth in the mid-$300s. When you first recommended selling quickly, I put them on the market at $200,000., thinking they would be snapped up. Finally, at the end of 6 months, when I had them down to $120,000 without even ONE offer, I pulled them and turned them back to the rental agent. NOTHING is selling. Vacancy factors are appalling.
Hold cash? I have a substantial amount of cash in US Treasuries, some of which is in long bonds (2021 @ 8-1/4%) that I’m reluctant to sell and add the cash to the 13-month bills or our Weiss Treasuries Only account. Aside from the 8-1/4s, none of the above produces income worth mention.
So where do we look for the income-producing opportunities? Investing for the long haul has little appeal. At our age, “forevermore” is a lot shorter than before.
I just read an article stating that the government could confiscate a persons 401K and IRA savings to create a ” Guaranteed Retirement Account” that would only pay out 3% return on their money. Apparently this practice is being done in other countries and is being considered here. What gives???
Thanks for any imput.
Dr Weiss,
It seems the market right now is discarding all of the indicators that point to further erosion in the economy and instead have decided to focus on the very slivers of ¨not so bad results¨(green shoots) The bank stress tests have surprized me..just like you DR Weiss, I was expecting the books to be cooked and as such the results to have been far favorable… 10 out of 19 banks are short of capital from what CNBC has been reporting…thats not too favorable…in fact it should be a resounding alarm..
If foreclosures continue to soar and new home sales remain weak……look out below…because this market will go down fast…just like its gone up…
with respect,
eric podeyn
WE NOT AT BOTTOM OF RECESSION, YET.
UNLESS AMERICA WAKES UP, WE HEADED
TO A SOCIALIST FORM OF GOVERNMENT
Hi , I am finding it difficult to reconcile the miserable facts with the rising positive sentiment that the worst is over. For those who have followed the money and markets point of view that we are still yet to see even more catastrophic news ,staying out of the Market that has seen a nearly 30% upswing is difficult to swallow. Are you saying hold off , the rally will turn and big buying opportunities will emerge ?
Hi Dr Weiss-
I think you are correct, I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. As you have pointed out, the underlying factors that would point to a true recovery just aren’t there yet. I enjoyed your book, and am thinking of buying several more copies to give away. The book is very helpful!
Thank you!
Dr. Weiss:
I am putting my 401k into short term Treasuries and a money market fund 50/50 as I am now 62 and facing retirement. I feel I must take advantage of my 100% employer match even though I fear the government will seize my 401K. I have around $45k in bullion plus precious metal stocks and other commodities on top of that. The balance of my assets is around $170k in dividend paying stocks and mutual funds. Should I sell more stock and buy silver or gold?
I feel one should be diversified, but worry about stocks. Thanks if you have time to answer. Steve
Dr Weiss
would now be a good time to convert my cash savings from US Dollars to another currency say the Euro or Swiss Franc, or even to buy Gold, after all the fed is now printing dollars which are backed by nothing as if there is no tomorrow, dont you think that the long term prosects for the US dollar are terrible ?. I even read that the treasury is now buying its own debth to make up for the shortfall in foreign buyers “notably foregn investors and foregn central banks”.
Shouldnt people start thinking about this, I even read the Chinese Central Bank is considering keeping the majority of its reserves in Gold as opposed to US dollars now. Finally would you consider the current bubble is now in treasuries and if this bubble bursts wont people even hodling short term bills get fleeced. I just see a decreasing willingness now by the rest of the World to continue buying our massive debth, and this free lunch is coming to an end sooner rather than later.
Sincerly Leslie.
This market is like a 16 year old kid with a new car……..out of control. There are no fundamentals to support this irrational euphoria. There is a lot more unemployment to come. I have been in cash and gold for a year and will stay on the sidelines a lot longer. Don’t underestimate the government’s capability to manipulate the market. Wait until the impact of this spending begins to hit.
I ordered The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide through Amazon. I think it is great. Of
course, I think Safe Money Newsletter is great too. I did not ask for credit when I bought
your book. I have been retired for almost 21 years and I think your advice is just as much
for me as those who are still working.
Fred in Cheshire UK .I have been an avid follower of all you and your contributors say , all received by email on a regular basis . To say I am confused is an understatement . I recall last year you (or one of your experts) correctly forecast the DOW would drop to 7200 , since then there have been forecasts of of 5000 and 10000 , which is correct?
Personally I do not trust this market and have not put any more money into it ,what is your latest opinion on inflation- I was thinking of a Corporate Bond to boost my retirement income , but do not want to see the capital devoured by a burst of inflation?
I think the rally was do to the gov programs like TARP that got passed. They put in place a bail out for every bank, and to transfer bad investments from banks balance sheets to the feds balance sheet. All this helps to prop up the Fanancial stocks, what it will do to the Feds balance sheet and its effect I don’t know. For bank stocks and their ETF it makes them a sure bet to go up.
Dear Sir,
I want to know about gold, what is the right price to buy more gold as investment. I am having 80% of my total asset in Gold ,as I am in jewellery trade, we mostly increase our stock at right price on which we make profit, so plz let me know what is the right price of gold to enter fro this year.
Do you have any idea about Indian stock market? actually follow your all advice honestly, and so why i sold all my stock couple of months ago, plz tell when will be right time to enter indian stock market for three years view.
Deb Tapan Sahani, Mumbai, India.
Dr. Weiss———-
I closed a profit sharing plan of my Mother’s and need to put it in a vehicle that will not be in her name and can be owned by her trust. I have 60 days to roll it over without being taxed and would desire to place it in an investment that will yield a good return with reasonable risk. What do you suggest?
Regards,
D.S.
mr. weiss,
you at one point recommended a wellsfargo short-term treasury fund….why is this no longer on your reco list?
thanks,
dg
Martin
Over here in Europe the wise heads regard this as a rally in a bear market. This tells me that the rally probably has a bit further to go to squeeze us further before the markets top out.
However, the bulls argue that now markets are at “fair value” (whatever that is), the bear market is over. The most notable commentator in this camp is Anthony Bolton, who is lauded as the most successfull long-term UK fund manager, often compared with W Buffet. Bolton has called the turn.
I have never seen a bear market stop at “fair value”. It always shoots into the bargain-basement, and the larger the correction, the greater the overshoot.
I have another comment.
Irving Fisher warned us about the debt-deflation spiral. He was right about that, but I question the remedy: print money as fast as you can to ensure prices do not fall. My criticism is that the debt deflation collapse is an asset phenomenom, not a consumer prices phenomenom, at least this time round. Therefore, quantatitive easing will not work, since it is directed at the wrong target.
So, the assumption that debt can be inflated away is wrong in my view. It will be eliminated by the lenders going bust first, which tells me the bear market is not over.
Alasdair Macleod, UK.
Have no stocks except gold mininsg stocks and some Gold stored at the Perth Mint. I think you are correct that the Market teday is for suckers. The reason I am stikeng to my Gold is that i think we are in for some very bad inflation. Do you agree? If you agree, what is your best extimate as to when Inflation takes over? The people in Washington are destroying our country! All my other assets are in cash or in annuities with Equitable and NY life. Near as I can tell both are in fairly good shape.
I have limited funds so purchased 100 shares each of ABB, NLY and WAG, last March with all dividends reinvested. I keep close stops (11.5%) on all three in case they drop unexpectedly, so I should end up at least breaking even counting fees.
I would invest more in this way but haven’t the money (retired on fixed income and modest investment portfolio).
Any comments on my stategy? Thanks.
I’ve been getting your letters for about 3 years now. I have very little invested in the market (about 10k). The rest (125k) in a money market at 1.76% and checking account that earns 3%. My 401k is all in a stable value account. Don’t know what to do at this time except take your advice and be careful. However I would like to do something better with the 125k I have sitting and not getting much. Just got the book and will strt treading it this weekend. I am 53 and worried about my company making me take early retirement.
Hey Dr. Weiss,
You have recommended ETF’s such as SEF, EUM, DOG etc. however, you recommend only a small percentages of shares to be purchased such as 50 sef, 50 dog. Now these ETF’s have surpassed their 52 week lows. Should we add to our positions or wait until we see a ROI with what we already have.
thanks,
Deon K
Warren Buffett said the big banks would survive and not fail. He’s very optimistic and his views are so opposite to yours. I imagine he is not lying and sincerely believes his interview responses. He’s also the world’s most stock investor. Who is right?
Hi all, I’m a prop trader for one of those evil banks….I believe this rally is temporary, for all sorts of macro and micro reasons, some of which are alluded to regularly here. What i think is of course of no importance whatsoever, but all I can say is in the last 3-4 business days the amount of bullish coverage swamping my mailbox has distinctly increased. I generally ignore the CNBCs, sell-side equity analysts of the world and other carnival barkers and cheerleaders, so this is a pre-selected coverage, research by people I consider good quality, with no obvious bias. I’d say the stuff sent to me has gone from 70% bullish (which is basically neutral) to 90% bullish on a 2-8 week horizon…”so much cash on the sideline, institutionals can’t afford to miss the next leg of this rally etc” is the chorus being bandied about in internal meetings again…as it is towards the tail end of EVERY bear market rally/short squeeze I’ve ever seen. Dipping my toes in today, a few more days of euphoria and it’ll be time to put a decent short on. For those who can play in it, I’d suggest credit as perhaps a better risk-reward short than equities.
Bought your book yesterday read to page 90. I told my husband tomorrow we will change our entire port. Move everthing into safe inventments until Martin lets us know when to move money back into the market. Husband 65 I am 62. Today an e-mail from Nilus Mattive states it may be time to buy some corporate bonds.
I really am confused.
I hired a financial advisor in 07. I gave him $400,000 to invest in safe investments. Not understanding the bonds world, I thought that money was safe. In nov 08 my port. was worth 350,000. Now I understand more about various bonds. He has some high yield corporate bonds and muni bonds.
He has 70,000 invested in GMAC bond due to mature in Jan 2010. I called him 2 time to ask how GM bankrupcy would affect my bond. Should I sell now and take a $10,000. loss. He tells me to sit tight. I read today in money, the CEO of GMAC, said even if GM declares bankrupcy they will be ok. Do I belive this or do I cash in? Please help
The market can defy the fundamentals for quite some time but sooner or later they will prevail. The influential people with all the rosy talk right now are the ones that have denied the fundamentals of the marketplace on a consistent basis. The market can go by feelings for a time and then the liers instead of apolagizing for the wrong calls they’ve dumped on investors will just move on to a fresh set of lies. Stick to Dr. Weiss’s strategy.
If you think the Banking system is broken, you cannot imagine how insanely broken and screwed up their REO – default mgmt systems are. Let me know if you want the inside scoop. “Too Big to fail” – is really missing the point- its more like “Too Big to see their feet” or “Too fat to see their Legs”
Dear Sirs
I have recommending this book to everyone. It’s terrific!
2 questions: (1) How accurate were recommendations from Value Line for stock prices while S&P and AM Best were lying? and (2) If government treasury bonds and notes are unreliable, why would short term treasury money funds be safe? (Vanguard and Schwab have closed accounts to new investors for these funds.)
Keep up the good work. We need you!
I am at odds of what to think right now. I read the bad news, and I see the market come off a bottom in early March and march up almost 2000 points. About the time you started your contrarian portfolio with a million dollars, I thouht it would be interesting to try a fantasy million dollar porfolio of my own. I selected 10 stocks. I just checked, and today the portfolio is at $2,561.139.99, or a gain of over a million and a half in less than 2 months. I just wish I would have invested real money. The bottom line is that it seems that you can make money in a bear market going long. The question marke is how much higher will this market go before swinging south again? Today Bernanke is touting the end of the recession by year’s end…the economy is bouncing back, according to him. I would hate miss great buying opportunities in stocks that are down 80-90 percent or more…big name companies. Wells Fargo, a stock Buffet is high on was selling below $10 within the last couple of months…today it is over $20. Unisys was selling at 30 cents a couple of months ago, and is at around $1.50. The list of major companies whose stock has been decimated over the last year is huge. It seems that many of them are buying opportunities, if one has the patience to wait. In the case of Unisys, a person could have bought 10, 000 shares for a little over $3000, and now is worth over $15,000. It is hard to sit on the sidelines when you see, or feel that some of these stocks are greart buys.
I too want to rack up gains, so what are some of the signs that might lead to
a down turn. I feel this rally is driven by the goverment , a way to get stocks up and short them as investors wait for the banking news to comes out, also there are alot of earings coming out in the next week that are driving the market. will any bad news concerning the stress tests over ride any good new concerning the earnings earnings?
I’m holding some I Bonds-What do you recommend?
Dear Sir, We can not compare any anticipated recovery with previous occasions as the last 20 years of destruction to our industrial base has left us with few tools to build a recovery on. It will take employment to do the job and even that is being hampered by the debt that is taking the major part of any gains we get from work if we can get any.Our leaders are trying many ways to convince the unemployed to increase spending.
We are not led by the most intelligent. Thank You,Bob Davis
Dr. Weiss -
Reading your book now –
I am 86, moved almost all out of mkt. and out of 401 in Nov. ‘07 thanx to
your advice. Moved into Van. U.S. Treas. fund. Dont believe rally is real.
Bought Gold coins today. Why do you recommend gold by ETFs’ instead of
holding the hard metal? I count it as security – not investment.
bear market trap
an aside: obama’s chrysler bankruptcy seems to violate standard bankruptcy laws. according to the report i saw in barron’s cerebus has a senior position (secured) to the UAW (unsecured) yet obama
offers Zero to cerebus and 55% + new debt to the UAW.
political payoff on the the public’s money. CORRUPTION so blatant
yet no one seems to talk about it.
Is obama leading the country into communism?????
I just got your book from Amazon, your explanation of the mortgage mess is excellent. We only hear the poiliticians blaming wall street, or the wall street blaming washington, and everybody dumping the whole problem on us taxpayers and taking NO responsibility. It is nice to read an analysis that includes ALL the problems that got us here. Your charts on the size of the US debt problem are stunning. Our children and grandchildren are in big trouble because of our greed and our pandering selfish whining leaders.
Doctor Weiss
We enjoy your news letters very much and think you are on track in 95% or more of every thing you print,prehaps it is because we believe as we understand you do. in our opinion our situation started in late 1990,s and we have been mislead about the economy as we are about being mislead about investing in stocks now.
keep up the work.
Thanks James B
Last week the volume started to go down and yesterday’s “rally” (Monday, May 4) was also on low volume…..what does that mean?
You are on point I believe. I believe this is a manipulated market to keep
people from marching on Washington. To have the market recover somewhat
is to make people believe they are a little bit better off financially for a time
and then reality has to sit in and then tie the boat down because hyper
inflation will be knocking on our doors and any profits will be eaten up by
inflation, taxes, you name it. My question is our quality of life and living
standards are going to be affected badly and most people havn’t figured
that out and will continue to spend and borrow, rob Peter to pay Paul and
soon we will be back to living like I grew up in the country but not because
of over spending, never knew what a credit card was or credit of any kind
for that matter. Money just didn’t flow then as now, a farmer was lucky
to make two or three thousand dollars a year on small farms but no credit,
no debt, plenty of food to eat, a roof over our head and a lot of love.
What else would one ask for, something that most have never had a taste
of in this fast moving world but it would pay people to slow down and smell
the roses before the blooms fade.
I believe this rally is real, easily over 10k probably much higher. Of course you have to invest wisely, diligence has never been more urgent. I believe w
in America and Americans, we do learn and are great innovators. We will inflate our way out of this, the world still needs us, and the stimulus is yet to take hold. We may have a problem on the other end coming down, but that is where the big money will be easy plucking if informed and prepared. Invest in America, albeit wisely, and
when the time comes in a few years, we will enjoy the greatest investment opportunity in history. Be diligent, educated and judicious, but most of all, be very prepared.
I’m with you re: your observations on events and the market. Do you think it’s another case of “irrational exuberance?” It seems that the worse the news is the better the market does.
Hi Martin!
I am doing exactly as you said. I’ve been watching my bank (Riverside) go down the tubes so I recently opened an account at a B-rated bank in my town. Keep very little in Riverside. Also have added substantially to my Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund and use the check-writing feature as well as ACH transfer fearure. I have tripled my mortgage payment so mortgage gets paid off in 2011 instead of 2024. I have paid off all my other debts! I love to watch the cash buildup. Substantial assets in 401(K) and IRA’s are in treasury-only or as close as I could get. I also have some silver bullion, mining stocks, awaiting a rebound.
I do not believe the depression is over. Sales at our sod business are at the lowest levels ever with no real signs of improvement. Debtors have defaulted on purchase-money mortgages and land isn’t selling as buyers are unable to finance. Some agriculture is doing ok (cattle & citrus), but there is a drought. My home in Vero Beach declined 15% in one month according to Zillow.com. Most real estate sales are foreclosures at rock-bottom prices.
Although the economy is bad, it would be much worse if there was no budget deficit fueling part of the economy, which is even more worrisome. I think the economy needs to downsize/rightsize from its many-years-of-budget-deficit-artificially-inflated size. Only then things could become stable and predictable. My questions are:
1 – When should I buy FAZ (triple bear financial), and what signs should I be watching for this?
2 – Where do you see the dollar vs euro exchange rate going? Things look bad here but the same is true for Europe.
Hi Martin, I have been with you & Safe Money for a long time. You have been right on the money with your analysis and predictions, some took longer to occur, but they did. I have one of my IRA’s in Evergreen Precious Metals, other IRA in Fidelity Energy, and other investment primarily in metals and energy. Thanks for all your insights. Rich
This rally has been impressive enough to be taken seriously, even though the economy is still suspect. I’m old enough to remember 1982, when the market blasted off while unemployment and other indicators were still in the tank. A lot of bears got badly gored (remember Joe Granville)? Yesterday the NASDAQ closed above its 200 day moving average, and the S&P is getting close. Who Can say, but at the moment it looks like the bulls have the upper hand.
Martin:
Do you still feel that Juergen’s recommendation to short the Euro and the EU market using EUO and EFU are good strategies, when the ECB has at least for the short term not taken the money printing / “quantative easing” route the US recommended to them at the recent G-8/12 summits?
The worldwide momentum trading rally seems to be anticipating better times from stimulus spending and money creation around the globe. But what happens after these short term positive effects are over and reality sets in is for another day down the road. The correction could be massive and swift.
The rally baffles me. How can people just ignore all of the bad data that is out there? I guess the old adage is true, “rise on rumors, and fall on the facts”. Fundamentally, it just doesn’t make sense to me how issuing more debt to get out of our debt problem is the solution that will fix this. I agree with SB’s earlier note. A rally is a rally. If you can time it well, you can make money. I missed this rally so I’m staying on the sidelines until the next hammer falls-and it will. You can only fight gravity for so long…I don’t have a lot of investment money, but I do have a decent 401K which went largely unscathed(lost less than 6% last year, when my colleagues were losing 30-50%) based on Martin and his teams forecast(thanks!)so I’m staying put.
Nostradamus predicts a period without paper currency. I suspect that we are coming close to that period. The sign are here. This may be a good time to purchase real money.
Gold and Silver etc.
The prediction that 2/3rds of the world will die should affect the markets.
As far as the auto industry … technology will make surface transportation obsolete. The auto industry will be the first to go in the transportation sector.
Contamination of the cattle feed will cause the great destruction
Having developed cynicism from immoral and intellectually disingenuine leaders , i ponder the reality that TARP money may be flowing into the market to avoid another degree of failure , and lifting the averages farther than a bear really possibly could . I own some SRS ; should I hedge my bet with some SPY and QQQQ ?
regarding the 200 point rise in the DOW yesterday, I am thinking it is a false rally. there were several of these during the great depression. as much as i would like to believe otherwise I think it will get much worse before it gets better. some of the stories of strong arm tactics allegedly used by the White House are not helping any.
This is a bear market rally sustained by corporate lies–primarily in the financial sector–and government deception. The sheeple are responding to the BS touted by the mainstream media and encouraged by Washington.
I’ve been buying silver collectible/bullion coins since 2004 anticipating rampant inflation. Additionally, in the current volatile market I buy and sell equity options in order to capitalize on market moves either up or down with minimal cash outlay and limited, pre-defined risk. Since I am nearing retirement and do not have enough time to amass a large portfolio I will continue this strategy in retirement as a means of generating additional monthly income. I would not recommend this plan to anyone else unless he/she learned as much as possible about trading options and practiced extensively using virtual (paper) trades.
Martin, I don’t believe that the current rally is the beginning of a bull market, only another bear market rally that doesn’t have legs to continue much further. Until unemployment drops significantly and the housing market turns we’ll continue to remain in a bear market, probably into mid- 2010. I remain in a cash position and with short-term Treasuries, bills and notes with occasional dips into stox when I see a quick in-out opportunity.
Martin, agree 100%. Been a Safe Money Report subscriber for 4 years and ordered your new book from Amazon. I am 100% in T-Bills. My only problem is when to buy Gold and how to hold it. I hope your book has a word or 2 on Gold.
I’m short the 7-10yr treasuries (etf), trying take advantage of the ‘rally’ to book some gains on equities, and increasing my GLD. (this is in my ira account). Also still have 35% cash. Sound ok?
Dear Dr. Weiss,
At some point, a book will be written about what took place after March 9th. The moveement of this market has blown trading systems apart as well aas some of us who use wave patteerns quite reliably. The volume has been slight and the moves sudden. That it is the government, or agents acting on behlaf of the government, is in my opinion without question. I know that the pattern up is a slow and corrective one. Milton Friedman once said that the economy is like a ship that has a destination and while you can move the rudder a bit to alter its travels, it will arrive at its destination. I do not believe we are doing anything here but building an even bigger bubble by kicking the can down the road. College graduates, I haave one, are 90%+ unemployed as there really are no jobs for them. Where the Law of Unintended Consequences take us are unknown and hopefully can be contained. The USSR fell and not a Russian would have thought so 5 years before. We have a Marxist in the WH and I fear we are going to pay a terrible price.
Dr Weiss
My sister has a very important job at a bank in Florida, I saw on your list
it is now rated E+ what should I tell her and what does this really mean for
the bank!!
Thank you for your offer to help in any way you can. I registered for a course, with coaching, on the FOREX and I would appreciate you telling me more about ETFs. They are supposed to be safer than options and virtually guarantee profits when shares drop in value; or so I was told.
Thank You.
Raymond
We have been ringing the bell to awaken the public to the manipulations in the economy for eight years. We are always looking for people who can talk to our viewers around the world. Dr. Weiss – write to me to get on the air with us – maybe you can help us save the wealth of people that need to know about you!
Dear Martin,
I know that Treasuries are as safe as anything can be. What about Series I bonds. Are they safe too.
Regards,
Julius
i would like to know how your one million dollar portfolio is doing…also why is larry edelson looking for a long term rally
norm
Hi Martin,
You are one of the few financial people who I consider has credibility. I value your knowledge and experience. I have a viable investing plan and am participating in the present rally until the market tells me otherwise. Every investor needs to be vigilant all of the time – and as you point out, now even more so.
Best wishes, Mark
The rallye is as real as the downturn earlier this year, but it obviously won’t go on forever – no rallye does. Stock market history has shown that in the long term stocks tend to behave approximately like the value of the underlying company. However, there can be excruciatingly long periods of disconnect between trading value and inherent value because 1) the inherent value is not exactly known, and 2) investors buy based on hypothetical future behavior, aka guessing. No one really knows what the future will bring. As humans, we have a tendency to extrapolate linearly but reality is not linear. There are too many variables that would have to be taken into account to predict stock market action with great accuracy. The best we can do is an educated guess. I appreciate Dr. Weiss’s education and his guesses as they tend to open my eyes to another side compared to the main stream media. It is important to have balanced views, and most importantly follow this rule: Don’t believe everything you think!
Keep doing what you are doing. We have 10% in gold coins and the rest in cash. We plan to wait this baby out, and when Larry says go we’re gonna go.
I am still concerned about housing prices falling lower, commercial real estate failures, credit card losses by banks, and car leases not to mention rising unemployment… not good signs for a robust economy….truth be told\ I’m waiting before I buy anything else..I’m in bonds and cash and waiting….any comments?
Well, I figure if its goes up, great. If it turns and goes down it will come up again. and holding PNW with its 8% dividends coming in every three months, I just get more stock for my money, if the stock price goes down, as the dividends and number of shares stay the same. And with my holding in GE at 13 and down from 89, how much lower can it go, that it won’t bounce back. So, what’s to worry about?
This is nothing more than a rally in a bear market. It will end soon and the market will go down at least 25%. I am covering myself with puts and ETFs that bet on the market going down.
See Larry Edelson’s 4/20/09 post and his “Shocking Prediction” of a Dow at 44,000, based on comparison with current gold prices. He says if gold goes higher as he expects, 44,000 could be low. Is it possible you are correct and that Dow 5000 means gold could go a lot lower? Or does Dow 44,000 make more sense given the massive reinflation effect of printing money? I don’t see you two reconciling these theories anywhere. A discussion would be helpful. Do we go to 5000 first in a panic and then 44,000?
Yard Sale Barometer
My friend had a yard sale this past weekend and no one came! The weather was great and there were no big events that day. I thought ‘this is a first’.
Then I began to remember the old “Cigarette Barometer”. The theory is that if you see lots of cigarette butts then people are doing well.
Could the number of yard sales and the lack of attendance be a new barometer?
If so you might want to take Martin’s advise to heart.
Dr. Weiss, the FED and its arms, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are manipulating the markets quite successfully with the trillions of dollars on behalf of taxpayers. It will take some time to have clean water in the cups…
I agree with the person who said a rally is a rally even if it is a sucker rally. I missed out on important gains at its beginning by listening to the pessimists who may well be proved right eventually and being too timid. Latterly however, I have been far more adventurous and have repeatedly made gains of 100 to 400%, particularly on financials and commodities. I believe there is more money still to be made in this rally but I am watching the market like a hawk for any sign of a downturn.
I believe you may be able to help me make money if and when a bear market returns.
SS
Hi Martin
How can such a wall of bad news produce such hope, and now staunch support, that the bear is dead? Take a look at how the market so often upticks at its close. Why? Confidence building market manipulation! Do not TRUST the regulators. There is that word ‘trust’ again. But once the financial institutions and re-orgs have have sucked all the money they can out of our pockets to complete their obviously pending equity financings, look out for the end of the bear-bull and new DOW and S&P lows.
Peter
I’m not sure I would call anything a rally yet. Even 200 points. In a year from now, or maybe even two, when the markets have gained 50% of what they lost, and the trend has been going up for the entire period, then, maybe, we can say it’s a rally. I don’t believe that we’ll see real progess for some time. As Martin points out, there are still too many (bad) things on the edge of the cliff waiting to fall on top of us. When the fallout from Chrysler, Ford, GM, the banks, foreclosures, etc., ad nauseam, is over, then we can talk about rallies.
I appreciate your research and insights but one has to wonder if there is some truth to the rally. I’ve lost money in shorting euros and the yen, at the recommendation of some of your experts. I’ve been out of stocks a long time. Some of your experts have left Weiss and are moving on…I realilze that everyone is entitiled to their opinion but the author of real wealth report seemed to think that the bulls are returning now to the stock market..it starts to make you think who’s correct?
I believe the rally is false . There are still too many shoes yet to fall. Many banks are seriously under capitalized, yet the B&G team think that in this environment they should be able to raise more capital. What are these guys thinking? Clearly they are not. Run for cover when they speak. Commercial defaults are just coming into play. Chapter 11’s won’t help that much. For now & the foreseeable future to handle inflation & deflation metals are the best option. How can I access the list of banks that are in trouble? you recently had a link, but have lost it. I appreciate your views and analysis. Thanks, John
EFT’s still confuse me, I have read your book and other articles regarding EFT’s. I purchased some shares in GLD last year. Still I can’t get a total picture of EFT trading in my head. Another stumbling block is the paperwork to transfer my money market funds into a Short Term Treasury Bill Fund. My husband and I each have separate accounts plus a 401K for our business, personally owned and operated.
Dear Martin,
In today’s news the statement that 10 of the 19 biggest banks need to raise more capital within 6 months. How can they accomplish this task? Of course, what is not being stated how much capital these 10 banks need to raise.
I have been reading your book and enjoy it! I have already started the process of re-positioning my savings by opening a US Treasury money market account, etc. Thanks!!
Stocks will rebound if there is a sell-off and go up again later this year or early next year. And if this is a Bull market rally, its a win-win situation.
Gary Faupel
We’re in Canada, and having seen shares crumble into the negative, we’re thinking of buying a rental property while prices are down (we own our own home) but that would mean taking out a mortgage and I’m worried we’ll see interest rates rise dramatically as they did back in the early eighties and again in the early 90’s. Am I right to be concerned about this?
For years I have followed a simple strategy, (except for last year)
I put 1/2 my money in to the equity market in April and the rest in September, I take all my money out in February.
Why ? Sentiment and bonuses.
At the end of the year the “20-something testosterone driven wall street types” hype the market up to the end of the year driving the market up and their bonus, In February reality and pessimism sets in and the market goes down. The up-turn is usually in April-June but to avoid a dead cat bounce I only bet 1/2 and the rest in September.
They say you cannot time the market. I have for the last 10 years. Last year a stayed out of the market in September and slept better at night.
Is there more bad news to come between now and September? Yes, but we are now used to catastrophic news and will little impact on the market. But watch out in February the pigeons will come home to roost for all the reasons you site
I don’t have a Ph.D., but I knew what I wanted to be when I grew up at 12 years old, settled in Las Vegas after serving time as an Army Officer’s brat & can tell you:
1- DIVERSIFY your holdings,
2- NEVER let your savings dip below six months of expenses, and
3- ALWAYS ALWAYS keep up with family, friends and acquaintences
a) NETWORKING starts with the cashier checking you out at WALMART!
This Economy is BAD worldwide and not because of WAR, Politics or Weather.
I wouldn’t rush out there unless it was money I could loose.
the market is a forecasting mechanism, forward looking 6-12 months, it will climb ahead unless another 9/11 happens, but mind you, we have not seen the double bottom yet. could this time be an exception?
Please Help – Your advice is important to me. (I do subscribe to your Money newsletter). I have funds tied up in an IRA account – if you were me, would you pull all the funds out, pay the 10% penalty, and at least have something left….. or would you take your chances and leave the money there. You always talk about 401 funds – but my money is in IRA accounts, put there when I was self-employed. So this is my question to you, but how do I get the answer? Mark tracyinfo@gmail.com
I appreciate your warnings and wonder whether you are still bullish on the dollar, considering China’s latest moves and our Treasuries’ inability to sell their bonds? Moreover, You may be right – you may be the only one who is – but fortunes can be made and lost in the interim.
Dr, Weiss, Your book is an eye-opener. My wife and I have had no understanding of the stockmarket, investingand so forth. We are getting an education from your book. Not that we think we now understand how to invest but so much has become clear. We both have felt that the financial situation was in a horrible mess. Over the years we have simply invested through a broker, money markt funds. My wife is a teacher and has a 403(B) . Our gut feeling was things were going to get worse. We advised our financial adviser at Edward Jones of this feeling and he suggested we move a large portion to Bonds; That the growth was not as great, nor would the loss be as great. She in retiring in June. She lost approximately $30,000 from her investments. After reading your book we moved everything to U.S. Treasury Money Fund Of America; it was a transfer within American Funds. We disignated Treasury Bills.
We were told she could not rollover into another Fund or IRA until she was no longer working for the school district. Now she has retirement plan with the State Retirement, through ICMA-RC. The fund has 52.8 % Bond Funds, 35.1 % U.S. Stock Funds 12.1 % International tock Funds. They have grown over $ 3000.00 this past week, wich is great, but we agree with you it will not last. I am trying to figure out how to move those funds to a Treasury Mutual fund as you suggest. I have not contacted the Fund as yet; ICMA-RCDo you have any suggestions?
Dr. Weiss,
First of all, I would like to thank you and your team for sharing your knowledge with
all of us. As a long time reader of your moneyandmarkets.com website, I can honestly
say that I support and agree with your thoughts, ideas and how to deal with what is
going to happen in the very near future.
The help that I think most people need, is answering the better question of; “WHEN
will all of this start to happen in relationship to this head-fake rally.” Unfortuneately,
being a greenhorn of sorts to the markets, I hung on every article and commentary
that you and your team has put out to the public and in doing so, I have lost an
abundance of money in the past few months…believeing in my heart that the market
was truly headed southbound. I stuck to my guns and purchased Inverse ETF’s in the
financial sector, to include FAZ and the SKF….just to see my account all but disappear as the market has soared higher and higher.
Now do not get me wrong…..playing the market is risky business in any market, but
these days, just when you think things are going to tank and this is being backed up by such horrific news, the market players shrug off this news, as if it is nothing, and
consequently…the market just keeps climbing.
So….with all do respect. When is enough going to be enough? When will the bulls
run for the hills and the bears come out of hibernation? When will the CNBC reporters
and Tv host(s) realize that this country is in big trouble and starting reporting the genuine truth? In general, I am a very optomistic person and I can appreciate any optomism in times of a crises, simply because it gives us all hope. But…hey, isn’t
enough…enough?
I understand that nobody can predict the market, but perhaps an indicator or two
could help us all to start recovering some of our losses.
Thanks for all of your guidance!
The market wants to crash to be over … but …. it isn’t. There is a rule … don’t invest in the market unless you can afford to lose. So I guess I am just sitting on the sidelines.
Martin, you and your team of writers are a breath of fresh spring air amidst the smoke and mirrors game of the Wall Street gang. Of all the information available before and now, during this universal economic ’sturm und drang’, your insights on world economic developments are as clear as any I’ve come across for the past five years. Keep up the good work, it will benefit the world society which is here.
Yours truly,
Bill Stewart
The stimulus will never be enough to cover the losses. I wonder if the money is there to cover the NFIB should it ever get to that point. What do you think about Credit Unions?
Martin,
What is your return-to-date of the contrarian portfolio you launched? And what is your plan with it moving forward?
As for my opinion about this “Bear Market Rally” is that we will start seeing some of the re-test
toward 750-825 SPX levels in the coming days to weeks. And shortly after see a regeneration of the upward trend that will last (more than likely) well into the summer. I do not believe “sell in may and go away” will hold that true this year. But this bear market rally should fizzle at the height of euphoria and market extemes by late summer. This fall could ‘09 could mirror the fall of ‘08. I sure hope I am wrong but that is how we are going about it for now.
All the Best to You,
Armand
Why don’t we just finally declare some banks insolvent, take them over, and be done with it? Even very large banks? The loss of public confidence in our banking system can be mitigated if we have buyers for the assets set up before hand as we did in the S&L insolvencies of the 80s. For some assets the government will have to be the buyer. Is the problem that we do not have the buyers, at any price, or do you think the we are doing just as I stated?
Dr. Weiss
I have been following you, as well as Peter Schiff.
The two of you are somewhat on the same page as far as the economy and investments.
I got out of the market last fall, not before I lost 40+% of our retirement portfolio.
I retired in March of last year!
I am sitting totally in cash some drawing less than 1% and some at about 3%.
I am looking at foreign currency, seeking the right investment.
I will not loose anymore of my cash if I can possible help it!
I have no debt so we can weather this storm!
Les
The fact alone that Buffet is shouting headlines at the moment that the government is doing the right thing is an answer to the question. He is in trouble and they only way out is the taxpayer. He does not care about the economy. He only cares about his ego and wallet. Do I need to say more.
The DOW will go up for another month followed by a 3 month down turn.
As an individual and corporate investor in many of the worlds major markets but primarily
in the UK and the USA I would caution the non corporate investor who is looking to supplement or increase his/her pension and/or lifestyle from investing in either of the markets at present.
I regret to say that, in my opinion, the market has not yet bottomed out and whatever recover seems to be apparent is not going to be sustainable. There is definitely less of a risk now and any loss sustained will be less than as before but there are no green shoots appearing yet. Maybe the seeds are planted but they will need a lot of casreful looking after before they can be relied upon to blossom forth.
James S Robertson k500jdr@tiscali.co.uk
Hey Martin
Thanks for your generous insights and wisdom on this confusing time. The markets seem to be ignoring fundamentals which is almost symptomatic of the way the western economy has been in a state of denial these past few years. Like all bubbles, there is money to be made but anyone who is out there will need to be fast on their feet with an exit strategy for when sober realities come crashing home. I am patiently waiting for the turn to happen as the downturn will be a more reliable market than the delusion we are seeing right now. Just now it’s all Alice in Wonderland and smoke and mirrors.
I just wish you had been grilling Bernanke on the Hill today. When asked if he agreed on the IMF view that the US public was in for a 1.9 trillion tax hike on bail out monies he body swerved it by stating it wasn’t costing the Fed anything. Er, no. That’s what is so scary. Run those presses and keep the Feds lieutenant banks in this bankers’ coup d’etat liquid whilst the public carry the can. SNAFU. I feel you wouldn’t have let Bernanke off the hook without a verbal bruising for that glib insight. God bless for keeping it real.
Read your book and got some good info from it. Also, read both of Peter Shiffs’ books and you two seem to generally agree. I’m about 80% in cash. I’m going to pull the remainder out of the stock market into short term treasury bills and start looking for investments in China, Canada or Australia. I liked your recomendation on Kubota but I don’t want to buy off the pink sheets because of the fees. Also, I think that the banks are broken, do you have a good inverse ETF on financials?
I believe that it is mearly a jump that will be followed by a REAL downturn, thats just me. It would not be good to try to live day by day in the stock market, you’d go crazy! I have actually started my own business, I will never rely on anyone ever again.
Not only are they manipulating the numbers and the books, they are manipulating the media as well. This is nothing more than a bear market rally, and is bound to end soon. I
Many investors behave as if the market is a logical environment, that cause – effect relationships must be intact at all times. Much depends on time-frames. In the short haul, the market can climb a wall of worry, or the market could rally a thousand points on the suspected return of inflation, or an abrupt change in the dollar. I find it beneficial to allow a disconnect with the behavior of the market on any given day, week or month when compared to the economic conditions over that time. For those with long range vision, this disconnect can be used to gain a strategic position, but it must also be tempered with the knowledge that “markets can be irrational longer than one can stay liquid”. The fundamentals of any situation, market or instrument often take time to play out, and there is never the guarantee of an event, only the probability.
Most likely the stock market will go up for a little while longer due to its upward momentum. I think that eventually it will turn back down and, at a minimum, retest the lows of early March. How the market reacts at that time depends upon the news flow at that time – will we be inundated with bad news or will there be realistic signs of some sort of stabilization and recovery ?
Long term, things look rather bleak at this time – considering the unprecedented massive debt creation by this government. The best possible outcome will have the Fed doing a highwire act of shrinking the money supply at precisely the right time to prevent run away inflation, IF, that’s a big “if”, the present deflationary scenario can be corrected, and then resuming a very low growth, lower consumption/higher savings/lower debt /low to no growth economy.
Haven’t had an opportunity to read the book yet, but is on my “to do” list.
I believe it is a bear market rally. Historical patterns show that this is typical. People don’t believe that everything is going straight to hell all at once. Things get bad, the government steps in, injects gobs of money into the system, investors are filled with hope and pump up the system, then it becomes clear that it’s not working and things head south again. We are about halfway into the biggest secular bear market in history, which began after the greatest secular bull market in history. Here’s my timeline: rally, with some minor corrections, till early September; down again Sept. – Nov., then a huge, monster rally from Dec. till summer 2010. Get out of the market after that or go long put options and inverse ETFs. Gold will continue to climb as the dollar and all other fiat currencies resume their trend toward their intrinsic worth of zero. The Dow may in fact rise sky high, but adjusted for inflation, the real returns will be negligible. Precious metals will be the place to be. But the current rally hasn’t drawn in enough suckers to end just yet.
Lost 15% of my portfolio last year. I have a commercial property. Own it free and clear. What is my best bet to sell or hold it in this economy?
I feel this is a bear rally ,however,there is no telling how high it can go with everyone so optimistic now…I am afraid it is going to finally suck lots of sideliners in just before it crashes which I think will make things so much worse in the long run..I am using any pullback to pick up junior miners..I especially like cde and gss any opinions?
I am following your advice about being liquid and being in short term safe interest bearing instruments like treasuries. I, like some of the other people on this blog, are torn between your advice, and Larry Edelson and others who feel that the market really is real. Therefore, I wind up doing nothing and watching……
Hi Martin, thank you for all your input, Like you I am taking care of my finances, the last 2 weeks I am up 75% on my portafolio doing Put options, ihope this down turn last a little longer because the up ternd is taking the stairs but soon I will take the elevator on the way down with my stradegy and $$$$$$$$$$$ will be coming in. Thank you again Mark Iacovetta
To answer the question with my opinion: I think that the Market is mostly going UP; that is, as long as no sudden really BAD news surfaces…what we have heard [bad news] is priced into the market.
I am [reluctantly] reserving about 40% of of my Stock Market Investments money in cash, just in case that this is just a temporary “Rally”…
I began “Investing” early in 2008, and “chased” it all the way to the middle of Dec., and began selling on the highs, and buying low….am now Ahead of where I entered the Stock Market, having gained over 60% in just the past couple of months…That Was “Quite” and education, chaseing the Market, in 2008! Ha!
I haven’t received the book yet, but when I do I will oblige.
But I think you’re a heck of a “weiss” fellow, and so far your info has been very helpful to get an understanding of the current ,,, and likely the comming years. I agree, that you have a great infrastructure that you made with borrowed money and now is pay back time. In Europe we only have two or three lanes and we don’t have toilet paper to sit on either, we may even have no toilet but only a whole in under us. Think how that is on an arthritic knee!
We lament loss of jobs, but forget that if still 75% are working, there is still hope. My impression is that USA forgot that taxes can be good. If energy had been constantly tax-upgraded the big gaz guslers would have gone the way of the dinosaurs and double panes, energy saving inventions would have seen the day much sooner. Complacency is a bad thing.
Your book does not illustrate what happens to the portfolio when you have inverse ETF’s and the stock market soars. The funds go down and twice the rate as the market goes up, so if you get in too early, you could damage your portfolio. They anticiate the Dow could go to 13K before tanking. When do you get in to the inverse ETF’s?
I believe we have a long way down yet….stay in Cash as I believe Les mentioned above…I am 1934 baby and saw a little of the last depression…We have not seen anything yet.
Hi Martin. As a subscriber to Bill Buckler’s Privateer publication, I cannot view the current rally as anything other than an opportunity to day trade via the Direxion 3X ETFs and work hard to build cash against the day (likely years in the future) that the underlying fundamentals support a REAL market rally. The stock market and gold markets are unquestionably being manipulated by the government via their cronies on Wall Street. I strongly suspect we’ll see a currency devaluation and gold confiscation before the current insanity ends. As a word of caution to gold/silver investors, avoid the GLD/SLV ETFs. Their underlying metals holdings will be the first things to be confiscated by the gov’t.
I really do not know what to think. The market has made a large move. I am inclined to think that there will be some pull back; however, I do not think we will retest the March
lows
This is not a rally and won’t be a rally until Obama cuts all the taxes including the Capital Gains Tax and have one Flat Tax and drill for Oil and Natural Gas, but that will never happen. Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Dodd, Geithner, and all the rest of the (left Wing Radicals) do not want the American people to do good. They want us at the bottom of the barrel and then you know what that means. That will mean (The Soup Line) for all of us. So we better get ready because we will get no help as you can see with all the money Obama and all his cohorts have taken all this money and wasted it on the Banks, Ins Co, and Car Manufacturing and that means the American will have to pay every penny of that money back which will be thoursands of dollars. Unless all the Tea Party and all Conservative people stand up and say no more spending and no more money. The Environmental Crap now that he is trying to cram down our throats is a bunch of crap. Obama and Al Gore are in the environment money Scam. Think about we have no global warming or anything else they say that is going on. We as American people need to get up off of our behinds and stick up for ourselves and fire or impeach everyone in the White House including some Republicans and then put people that have some sense. These people are tax dodgers and liers and the only thing you see in their eyes is $$$$$ signs. We have to fight for what is ours.
martin; just watch tv,the mortgage people and auto people and home inprovement people and others are back to the same sales tactics that got us into this mess.they know there are still people out there looking for a deal and they will be exploited again and this activity is a reason for the stock market to rally a little but not one broker to my knowledge is even under investigation for missleading the investers.also notice the last i/2 hour tradeing could be manilpulation.why does obama and company not get all the auto workers to order a new auto and the govt assist the used car overflow to developing countries???orders for a million cars would get the economy going at once.i think the fed.,and the obama administration are trying to get the old fraudelant economy back for another super ecomomic colasp
sinserely,william d
Martin!
You are soooooo right!
Lets really look at who’s brain washing who … the BIG BAD Wolf … yep this is not going to be an easy time for almost ALL Americans. The Gov’t “BIG BROTHER” is playing around with our money. Why have all credit card companies cutting limits, closing accounts, reducing staff?
This run on the Market is just as FAKE as a $3.00 Dollar Bill.
Hold on to what you have, and don’t … repeat … don’t spend it foolishly.
Your friend,
JM
I think this is the last opportunity to get out.
I have watched the rally but it is a matter of days before it will reverse its course. Wall Street can not cover the sun with one finger.
This is clearly nothing more than a rally preceding a continuing bear market, which I believe will come back with a vengeance. There is something I would like you to comment on: With more and more people out of work, there is, or will be, substantially less flowing into both the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, neither the employer’s nor the employee’s contribution is now being made. Now, I have heard nobody comment on this. Is anybody lookingn at how this will impact the “overly-rosy” projections about growth and gdp now being made by our elected officials?
I don’t see anything improving in Retail Sales at all.
My broker is trying to convince me to move out of Treasuries and get back into equities. He says timing the bottom has already cost me 15%. I am in the hot tub business and the downturn for spa sales began in the fall of ‘07. In April ‘09 we sold 1/10th the number of spas this year compared to April ‘08. And April ‘ 08 was down 35% from 2007. So we’re down 95% from 2 year ago!
People have the money to purchase a inexpensive ($2500-$3500) somewhat luxury product. I think they are afraid of spending the money.
Thank goodness I beefed up my web site for chemical sales last year. It is the only thing paying the bills. Unfortunately it’s caused me to be cautious and not spending any money either. Catch 22
There has to be ongoing real improvement in consumer confidence to turn things around. The mainstream junk news we get is unreliable so when there in no way to hide overdrawn Federal Reserve, banks, derivatives, AIG, Freddy Mac and Fanny May any further and it hit’s at once, it will crash the market.
Ever hear the term “dead cat bounce”? I’m not holding my breath in hopes that the market will trend upward. My deeling is that there needs to be more “correction” before we are clear of the mess. I’d also like to see some REAL regulation and a stop to the financial game playing.
I think that between people refiancing, buying cheep homes, buying heavy discounted cars, clothes and other stuff, we are seeing some type of rally. Add in the changes to the banking system accounting methods, we think all is well. We still have:
a) the US Debt,
b) States and cities are trying to slash budgets,
c) tax revenues are down,
d) malls and strip shopping centers are full of empty stores,
e) Chrysler is about to close dealers, GM is closing dealers
f) Unemployement is up and benefits will soon run out.
g) Few jobs are being created.
And I could go on…..
So, this rally will go up until this summer then fall apart with everyone has to start paying their bills and have no jobs.
I would like to hear Martin Weiss and/or any of the advisors at Weiss Advisors discuss what they know about the Illuminati/One world government and their plans to cause a global depression, an “allied” world currency, to crash gold, to eliminate the US dollar and cash as we know it. martin, please address the Illuminati and there plans that you are aware of. Do you believe this to be true. I have read about this on Henry Makow, David Icke, and other websites. Please let us hear from you on this topic.
This is a suckers rally. I don’t agree with the guy who gives forecasts on the dollar. How can the dollar be so strong when they print money like there’s no tomorrow.This is manipulation by the federal reserve and the banks. I was away for six months in the middle east, got back in April, prices are higher than when I left. More of my friends and
family lost their jobs in the past 6 months, so how can there be a recovery, no job, no cash to spend = depression. Even Dubai seems to be hurting from what I saw,construction was almost at a standstill.
Fed up with the jerks and clowns In washington
Martin
You ask what can be done to weather the storm.
I am 88 years young, and was insulated against stocks in a down market at a very early age.
Retired ten years ago, and with an inadequate retirement fund. After studying for a couple of years, I put most of my money into the safest thing I could see. At present I am up 300%, with no losses. Larry at that time was recommending gold. Good advice! Silver has done just as well, and will probably do better in the future, due to its relative scarcity and industrial utilization. Les will feel a lot better if he has a few thousand ounces of silver rather than money at 2% losing purchasing power at 8 or 10%.
Clarence
With trillions and trillions of liquidity being bandied about, maybe even stocks can inflate.
Martin
Have been enjoying the book. I ordered 12 copies for my key employees.
Think we are just about out of gas on this fantom rally. Will start with inverse ETF’s when appropriate. Thanks for all your help!
Been a subscriber of Safe Money and enjoy it. I have been following some of your strategies and up for the year about 10%. And began to go long about three weeks ago because of a change in setiment and the markets rally into bad news (indicaative of a short term bottom? vs long term bottom? don’t know t-time will tell). But the market is never wrong. If the market is consistently rallying then the market sees a potential turn for the better in the next 6 months. This will persist until some aggregattion economic and setiment data changes this. REMEMBER THE MARKET IS NEVER WRONG.
I think you are correct about the health (lack thereof) of the economy. However, the market moves on sentiment and emotion and investors and the financial world has it in their best self interests to prop up the market with inspired optimism and buying. The banks do abracadabra accounting to hide weakness; the government acts as cheerleader to give false hope. The market and economy is being played up and therefore a rally. The market moves contrary to logic. A company (FO) reports horrible results and its stock goes up. Another company reports great results (BMY) and the stock goes down. Therefore, it’s not crucial to be right, just right about how the market will move in spite of everything.
I am losing money on inverse ETF’s which I instinctively think was the right play. However, I’d rather be wrong and winning, than right and losing.
A great thanks for writing your book , Your dad and you are the common sense People to lead this nation out from quicksand which this New world order failure.The Goverment give billions to foren Bank trust instead of saving the money to rebuild the factories , make jobs here. I am taking your advise and turn all assets into cash .
Thanks again .
Dear Martin,
Thank you for all of your service. I can’t help but agree with you that this is only temporary and another shoe will drop soon. I am enjoying a 37% increase in my 401K since March 9th and looking to drop everything back to short term treasuries (Vanguard fund) today. I hope the folks in Washington get your message, and soon!
Gratefully yours,
Will
Martin
My wife and I are toying with the idea of closing our two 401ks. They are mostly in cash and we understad that with the penalty and tax we would loose about 40%. We have approx. 500,000 in them, we are in our mid 50s and in good health and are not considering retiring any time soon. We own two homes with small mort. and have about $250,000 in other savings. We have a small amount of physical gold and silver. We think we would be better off out of the 401ks and perhaps more metals and oil and gas.? We have very little choice in either 401k please help us Don
Martin: For me, we’re experiencing a major bear market rally that could go to Dow 10,000. I have been buying selected material stocks and mutual funds. So far that has been working. I would also consider adding to my long term GLD positions were gold to pull back to $840/oz. or so. Yours truely, Len S.
i’m 81 years old and i’ve come to the conclusion that the one thing that is causing most problems of the world and it’s people is paper money in the hands of human being’s using it to control and manipulate to serve their own purpose. i think it’s time for countries to find a new monetary system that is more accountable.
also a cap should be placed on the amount of money American residents can have in foreign banks. it should be a world policy.
Your analysis of frought fundamentals, especially in the banking sector makes common sense. I did hedge myself with inverse leveraged ETF three weeks ago, but got burnt with the banking rally continuing unabated over the past few weeks, and the leveraged eETF’s being decimated. Wall Street geniuses proclaiming victory over the bear pessimists adds fuel to the pain. I am holding on, as I firmly agree with you that there is still a long way to go down yet, but perhaps I am missing something here? I suspect my timing was wrong, but who could have foreseen this bear rally lasting so long and running on vapour?
Until I reached retirement age; I never felt that I had enough money to get into stocks, but I was always curious. So in 1999, I started investing a small amount and gradually began to make a profit, although the profit was only in small amounts. By 2007, I still had not earned enough to feel confident and as I watched the stock market begin to falter; I decided to get out while I was still ahead. I took the profits and purchased all the nice things that we always wanted over the years like a new car, and furniture.
I began to listen to Dr Weiss and I was imnpressed, but I no longer had any money left to get back into stocks or investments.
I continued to listen to the Weiss people and I puchased the recent “Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.”
I consider it good advice to put my extra money into T-bills; but I no longer have enough for the initial minimum investments. So I plan to use the Guide as I try to protect my assets from any further loss. I hope to slowly get back into stocks, but only when I can be reasonably sure that I will be able to add to my modest savings. I don’t think the present time is right, yet.
Dr. Weiss:
I am about 80% in a short term treasury only money market fund. I also have about 15% in a combination of gold and silver metals and ETF’s and the balance is in cash. I plan to shift some new funds into ultrashort ETF’s on various indicies when it appears this bull run is about over (anytime now). Later down the road when the developing economies of China, India, and others are turning around I plan to shift about 15-20% of my funds into commodities ETF’s.
Thank you very much for your advice in the past year. I enjoyed your new book and will use it as my guide going forward.
All the deficts and all the lies will ketch up, but we have been waiting for the sky to fall since 1973 when we went off the gold standard and honest money policy ended, nearly 40 years, and this could go on for 40 more years. Obama’s handelers call the shots and will continue to manipulate. They want us in the game, so be safe and stay out.
BORN IN 1921 , I’M REMINDED HOW NERO FIDDLED WHILE ROME BURNED. WHICH MEANS PEOPLE LIKE TO IGNOR THEIR PROBLEMS. THAT’S WHY MORE PEOPLE SEEK ENTERTAINMENT DURING BAD TIMES. SO – THERE IS MORE EXCESS TO GET RID OF BEFORE WE START TO REBUILD THE GOOD TIMES. INFLATION IS STILL AHEAD OF US. MUCH , MUCH DEBT TO BE PAID OFF. DEBT IS EASIER TO PAYOFF WITH CHEAP (INFLATED) DOLLARS. IT WASN’T THAT THINGS BECAME MORE VALUABLE – THE $ BECAME LESS VALUABLE. ASK THE OIL EXPORTERS.
THIS MARKET IS FOOLS GOLD ITS’ VALUE IS OVER RATED FOR NOW. THERE ARE SOME NICHES OF VALUE , PERHAPS.
Martin.
I keep hearing that the worst is over and the stock market is going to continue to go up. If a person looks back at history you will find out that at this time of year the market almost always goes up. Usually around the end of june through alot of the summer and especially september and most of october the market drops heavily and then recovers in november and December. This year is different as the market has already fell a little more than 50% due to a long bear market. This has been a very deep recession and not totally unexpected. I believe that this market will plunge downward this summer and probably test the new lows around 6500 before recovering. Remember buy low and sell high.
My wife’s and my IRA were entrusted to a management company we thought was well run as it was loaded with CFP’s, CFA’s etc. Smart they are, but they gave no consideration to our age and where we are in our life’s journey. They loaded both our IRA accounts with over 40 stocks and advised us, “all the stocks have been bought at discounts, and all the company’s have strong financial statements. Buy and hold.” That was their plan even as I advised them the future for our IRA accounts did not look bright based on current losses.
We failed to fire them before the stocks suffered serious losses. I am trying to regroup and protect what funds we have left. I have been selling the stocks in my IRA at painful loss to get out of the market as much as possible. I have purchased five ETF Funds, (XLK, XLE, GDX, XLF, XLP to hopefully “keep us in the game” for some growth in the future. At 80, there isn’t much waiting time for the market to recover. (Hope the ETF’s were a prudent move??) I’m waiting for the arrival of your book Dr. Weiss. Amazon is late in getting it to me.
Keep up the good work, and as you often say, good luck and God Bless!
Arlin
I think the rally in the market is for real but not for all the reasons
set forth by the media and the government. The market is now unhinged
from the economy and represents an early warning of the rampant
inflation to come when all the bail-out money and deficit spending gets
into the pipe-line. This is exactly like Zimba-whee where their stock market
went to the moon at the same time as their economy crashed to zero.
Investors are hedging their bets in anticipation of $500 for a loaf of bread.
Martin,
Here are my comments about Ben Bernakes speech today:
“Wow, the Fractional Reserve Banker speaks…. What else could he say. After all, he is the official spokesman for the Fractional Reserve Banking system that we have. Let me see, what is that, oh yea, that is the system that allows banks to pump air money at 10 to 30 to one ratios into the financial system. The banks only have to keep 10 % reserves while the rest is air. This fraud has been going on for about 300 years. Deflation is when the masses smell the con and go running for their money and find that there is nothing but air… It is Ben’s job to re inflate the con, with spin stories about the recovery that will be here in six months. If he can get the masses to believe this, then the fraudulent system might start working again. Right now, the only money going into the Ponzi Scheme is the air money from the government. Not a good position to be in, the last into a Ponzi Scheme. Lets give Ben a new name, Ponzi Finance Minister. He makes Madoff look like a piker.”
I think this false rally may continue and if it does it becomes quite real. I’m in a dozen stocks selling Calls for income and doing quite well. Followed your advice on inverse ETFs and doing quite poorly. I do not fear bear market as Call income is great hedge. And I do not think economy warrants such bullish sentiment thus the inverse ETFs. But when to pull the plug on inverse ETF’s especially SKF and admit we were wrong?
I do have 80% in cash and will continue to keep there until path is clear. I do not think we are headed for dreadful times however. Are you in any way prepared to temper your pessimism despite all the dire signals which the economy seems to be “dealing” with inimical resilience?
hi. martin I have just finished your new book and found it very educational. I am a ww2 vetran who experienced fhe depression an can relate to your father .I am a long time subscriber to SAFE MONEY I believe that we will have to go through the deflation correction before we get well .
stephen
I know this is something that Americans today do not want to consider but I think that it is time for Americans everywhere to sacrifice. We still have the egocentric narcissistic idea that America is great because Americans are great. Perhaps we just had alot more to start out with. But was it due to us or was it due to God”s providence? But that life cannot be supported all over this world. So, is it not time to ask ourselves whether our great nation should sacrifice some of its waste of natural resources and material benefits so that those in places without clean water and sufficient food can be fed? For one day let every American keep record of what he or she throws away or misuses and then compare that to other countries in this world who can only wish they had more.
In order to move out of a stable value fund and into a competing fund in my 401k, I have to move into a stock fund for 90 days. Competing funds are: Fid Retirement Govt MM, Fidelity Cash Reserve, Fid Govt Income, I am debating on whether to just roll the money out to an IRA so I can invest it in a safer alternative without going to equities first. Or is the Stable Value fund safe enough? If I had to go back into equities what would move the least? Thoughts?
Home prices must bottom before the economy can recover. Yet, bank lending has actually declined despite the recent growth in the monetary base, which is unparalleled in our nation’s history. This rally is based on hope. How long will the hope last? If it’s irrational, the hope can end any time.
I am not too optimistic about the market. This could be due to the Speculators trying to make some quick money.
However, I do have some questions on the validity of the comparison of this current financial crisis with the Great Depression.
There wasn’t so much of International trade and Globalization in the 1930s. Now, there are a lot of Export oriented economies and huge population in China and India. These countries cannot increase their internal Standards of Living and simulate growth for a variety of reasons (like poverty, corruption, dependence on Oil Imports etc.,). These countries need to inflate their economies to provide employment to the masses.
Given the fact that US is still the safest countries for investment with a stable democracy and the country that promotes Creativity and Innovation with high quality Educational and Research institutions, there is still a lot of chance for US to get away with all this inflationary monetary policy with not so much of a loss in the value of USD.
A lot of “Supply” in terms of available Labor will reduce the value of “Labor” and hence such economies will need to further reduce the value of their labor costs in such deflationary conditions. Countries with low population and lot of resources alone cannot thrive without Technological growth. If US establishes strategic partnerships with other countries so that there is no one-way traffic of Exports only / Import only conditions, its goodwill should take it forward and out of this crisis.
I cannot see any other country that has some of the great advantages currently held by US. Sure, BRIC nations have the opportunity for a lot of collaboration and growth but still there needs to be the political will and co-operation which will take a while to mature.
Hello Mr. Weiss,
I’m following market on daily basis, investing little bit,mostly day trading not big money. Also I read a lot ,economy books, news , comments by analyst…etc.. I ‘m wondering what is your thought about conspiracy theory that this market is 100 % controlled or will be soon by government and Goldman Sachs or how some people call that company these days , “Government Sachs” . I believe enough is enough,it’ s a shame how this market is being manipulated.Thanks
p.s I read your comments every day,thanks for advices. God bless you.
been in business since 1969, every downturn has been more severe than the last,
we don’t do anything in this country but sit in front of a computor and desk,
trading paper, frankly, when I see and here about well educated, hard working
citizens living in tents in tent cities, unemployed, I tend to get a little worried.
I have taken your advise and gone virtually all to cash and equilavents.
I agree that the turnaround may be along, long time coming
The rally will end. What we need to focus on is ” indicators that signal when” so we can make good trade decisions.
I am in Corporate Bonds for last 6 months. Reasonable returns at average 8%. Plus 20% capital gains on some. These bonds rise and fall about every 2-3 months. Entry level/timing is key. Next question is “when will it be time to sell” ? Is rising inflation the key to selling bonds? Is the indicator the CPI or ?
Thanks , Keep focus on key indicators and track them for us.
I worked with a Houston Realestate Agent and He says the housing market in Houston has not slowed down , If fact it has picked up because of people moving to Houston from Fla. and Ca.
Railroad slowing down 20 % from last year ( weekly car count ) but 2% greater from last week.
I have ordered and finshed your new book, Thank You. It was information just in time to get my mothers retirement income/assets into safe shelters. I’m also a subscriber to Safe Money. While looking on your web site I was looking to find infomation on brokers and the link to the Brokers List has been removed. Any chance you could put the Brokers listng back on-line?
I believe the recent run-up of the stocks is a masquerade created by government to deceive american people about the realities of our economY. In my opinion, our phony economy (us economy) is collapsing because its foundation (72% of GDP is consumer spending) is collapsing. it is as simple as this, No Jobs —>No Income —>Lower consumption, with 600 thousand jobs plus losing each month, this consumption is contracting greatly. Auto sales month after month is lower 35% or more from the previous year for the same month. This will happened exactly to other sectors as well. We are in for vicious circle, high unemployment will lead to more defaults on mortgage (even prime mortgage)–>less consumption–>higher unemployment. That does not even commercial real estate bust coming. This is probably worse than the great depression. We were manufacturing country with trade surplus, budget surplus, with much less population to feed. We are having oppposite of everything we had. So, let’s ready to have 5 years of hell guys. thanks for reading.
I have lost a great deal in the recent crash. I did not get back in fearing a continued downturn. To see this huge uptick, only made the thieves richer, (institutions) and so on. and left the average investor with a big hole in them. It goes to prove the rich stick together. All this bad news has kept mutual funds with our hard earned money on the side along with huge loses in their portfolio’s, only to have theives profit. So the banks destroyed the sharholder, but are getting to borrow money for almost zero. What a world we live in. Guess they want to bring middle class down to between low and mid! Obama is no better, he helped by targeting sectors making them plunge, with our money in the shares!! The news is so bad and the market continues to go higher, with over 8% unemployed, so job loss is say 590K instead of 620K, we should rally on that. The stress test, A JOKE, the public is so misled! BAC, C and others need a lot more money, but send shares higher, then suck innocent investors in and watch the plunge! I could go on, but I am disguisted.
I think ,based on historical data on bear market rallies, that their is 2-3 weeks before the market heads south again.I’m setting stop losses,but believe we will see more rallies. I also believe that this bear market could last another 8-10 years.
I hope I’m wrong.
Living in Canada, I would like to invest in Canadian stocks . Any suggestions ? Regards Peter
no way will the rally last i think the big crash has yet to come
With trillions of dollars owed with no plans to repay the debt, we are only in the early stages of the financial crisis. How do we finance medicare and social security? What about the looming credit card debt and the commercial loan problems soon to hit us?
Trying to save the auto companies was merely a deliberate and dishonest distraction by our politicians.
Dr. Weiss,
I am spending this year studying (the markets). Thanks to your insights and your book on protecting myself, I am much better at seperating the wheat from the chaff. I have recently concluded that the T.V. talking heads and various government representatives are “talking the book” and do not have the best interests of the people they are supposed to serve at heart.
Be happy, we’ve hit bottom, things are turning around. Ya, right.
Resp,
R. Smith
This May 09 spring tide of cheering seems to be pep talk in light of actual figures being touted by every other agency and “august” financial body. It has trappings of being the dance contest on the deck of the Titannic on that fateful night. But this time it could be different. Maybe the lighthouse is in the short distance for true believers.
Bottom line: Obama will holiday the markets and banks in a national emergency. Your own publication may fall into the “fairness doctrine” yet to be drafted. T bills maybe frozen and only the Fed/Treasury can transact domestic redemption, limit institutional transactions and halt private. Once again main street will finance the social experiment. He may halt CBOT,etc., and only the international bankers and Soros types can scalp the USA on foreign exchanges.
I’m almost 85 years old and have been retired for almost 25 years. Since the new crowd took over in Washington, my pension is in trouble and I am out looking for a job. My stock portfolio is in shambles. When my next CD pays out shortly, I was considering maybe gold. But now I read about the illuminati which is supposed to make our dollars worthless and crash gold prices. Just what is going on?
Well Martin, I was on the edge before the collapse. As an independent contractor, single income provider, who is paid only by commission, life in a normal atmosphere is not predictable. Getting a head just a little was tough then. With the money flow/credit stoppage, unemployment and fear of future, my income stopped months ago, and my liquidity is gone. Wealth is relative. Mortgage money, utilities, a car payment and a good meal sound good about now. I would like to commend you on your active role in providing great advice.
Hi, Martin,
I really appreciate your website, blog, company…I have learned a lot in the last six months since first signing up to get your email updates. I went through the 2000-2001 decline and saw the 25% impact to my 401k and my instincts told me right then, that there was something fishy with 401k’s tied to the stock market, our future retirement in the hands of crooks….and sure enough, the hurt to all the hard-working people in America saving for their retirement and to see it dissolve by up to 60% this past 7 months. I am, thus, since 2001, not in a 401k; also have lived debt free, and already in cash…BUT you have a lot to teach and we have a lot to learn about ETF’s and all those other kinds of investments that I know nothing about. I do not believe the rally is for real as far as long-term…my instincts tell me the hard crash is just ahead…but unlike you and others, I do not think we will EVER recover the market, nor the home values. There are too many other factors now…this country does not appear to be our own any longer…there is no one at the helm that cares about continuity…we are a market only….a market state…and we are up for sale, plus we owe so much, we are mortgaged to the hilt…not to mention the jobs we are losing will not come back, and we are not creating any worth having anytime soon to support ourselves in high Dollar house payments, and ALL the other payments needed from us to keep the whole shebang in the air (property taxes, federal income taxes, sales tax, car & home insurances, health insurance, daily expense needs, etc.). My biggest concern is this: Do, I sell out completely, and become a rover….a person who rents, who has sold most of their possessions, and is living light? This whole situation has made me feel very uncertain about everything…I see too many lies on tv, on the evening news, and in the newspapers…like they’ve told us, “they didn’t see this coming.” Well, if they didn’t see all their fraud coming home to roost, I don’t guess they are going to see the Depression they are steering us into, and so us, the little people, will be the last to know…and therefore, there won’t be any warning from TPTB when the end comes to our financial solvency…YOU are more optimistic than myself; keep up the good work, I know you are trying to sound the WARNING and I thank you…..BUT the majority of people are still Unenlightened. And those like me, we see it and believe it, but we don’t think we have the skills, time, or means to do anything about it. Mary Summer Rain said, that she saw a time, when the common people would be filled with Despair and Apathy. I sure can relate to that quote.
Hi Martin, your influence has been accurate and foreshadows the coming events in the markets. I do not believe we have bottomed and sense much more wild erratic activity to take place until it is made clear that when a bottom hits, it will hit with a big thud…..
So, we can only go by these current trends to keep a sharp eye on where these trends are going. These trends do not look good for long bets in the market, so I am staying short in all aspects and strong on Gold. I would like your opinion on Zion oil, I know it appears a long shot, but is it a sleeper stock and would you buy it?
Thanks,
Stephen Brazil
I agree with the dead cat bounce scenerio as this rally is about to peter out. Still have some funds in market and looking to exit.
I have been teaching continuing education financial courses and real estate classes for over 23 years and I have never seen it so bad. I teach in over 48 high schools and colleges one night each semester and I am strictly a consumer advocate. I have seen a huge decline in enrollment because of adults fear of the economy and trust me I see no increase in enrollment for many a years. I can guage our economy by enrollment or lack of and it is not pretty what I am seeing.
Martin,
I think this is dangerous trap and investors have to be cautious not to listen
to the media. I’ve recently started your book and hope to complete it very soon.
I can definitely see the parallel between the 1930’s situation and now. It looks as
though there is not much to stop us, from going down the same path.
Martin/others,
After reading your email my first reaction was to go through all the standard list of reasons for why all the economic things are happening, and the list of who was causing what. I’m pretty sure that you and your other readers either know the answers, or have a well reasoned position on all of these matters already.
So, here’s what I have to offer instead (and it heaps onto what’s already been said); The stock market has become more like playing blackjack, or roulette. The investment aspect of the market is clearly diminishing, and at some point it will eventually “permanently” scare off people who would like to actually invest, as opposed to gamble. If this happens, people will abandon the market, and go looking for something to replace it. This would be the same everyday folks that saw the market go nowhere over the last 10 years, watched the big banks/AIG behave improperly, and multiple branches of our federal government jump in to the mess with all the wrong intentions.
Somebody please convince me differently.
mc
Well well it is no surprise there really is no hope of fixing this form of govt. now that we have reached a stupid point of political correctness it was over as soon as you couldn’t call an actress an actress you have to call her an actor……..which when I grew up was a reference to a male actor…..now we are in a place where wrong is right and right is wrong …Yes you see it very clearly everyday and now if you do not have a tattoo or a facial piercing you an outcast it is wonderful what we are teaching all our children it is good to be brain washed and be lead to believe in OBAMAISM Doesn’t it feel wonderful…….How does this fit into the market place????well I will tell you THERE IS NO MARKET PLACE….We have to give rights to pirates and illegal immagrants….Just try to break into any other country and see what happens if you survive the first year of their prison system you might be able to escape somehow But lets not talk about that Right gang?……So I am very sorry if I sound angry or Negative the fact is this nation this REPUBLIC(rule of law) is over the IMF will change Thanks to our wonderful Treasury Sect. and the fact is Public Enemy # 1 is Obama and # 2 Biden and # 3 Polosi these people are as anti American as Hitler himself so lets not get me started the deal is stock pile dry goods and yes physical Gold because in the next 1 to 2 years we will be using the chinese new Money they are preparing for us as to the question HOW DO YOU FEED 1.2 Billion people? with a 25 million man Standing army who is presently and rapidly building a New Blue water Navy think it is not possible.. well guess again because as soon as the chinese say they want their money back and we do not pay they WILL COME AND GET IT!
By the way Dr. Martin I love you ( and I mean that in a good way not in a funny way) and I wish if we could go back in time I wish you could have been our leader 10 years ago it might have changed things but you know as I know one man who sees the truth will only be made out as a demon by this wonderful anti American Media. Oh yes wonderful M-Tv and VH-1 NBC and ABC Who are these people? Lets teach ourselves it is good to talk Horrible about our beautiful Nationand demonise ourselves to the rest of the world that way they will like us…..the trouble is you don’t see any other country talking bad about themselves do you? and it really is a joke isn’t it.
My view of the “recovery” is this: Indeed we shall recover but to different, lower level of economic activity. Whatever the cause of the current recession/depression the net result of the economic “bubble” was that by refinancing homes over and over the economy was running at an unsustainable level. The country’s wealth was extracted from the housing stock and spent on trips to Cancun and cars purchased with no money down and $3000 cash back hat must be paid for, somehow. The government can stimulate the economy momentarily but there is no longer an excess of disposable wealth to sustain the stimulus. Much of the country’s storehouse of value is GONE and lies in Cancun, in rusting automobiles, home theater systems and other electronic toys..
The economy will “recover” but much of the discussion hinges on just what “recover” means. My definition is that that the recovery really will result in a new, lower level of economic activity that is sustainable in a “service economy.” We must dig something out of the ground, shear the sheep and skin hides to produce something of higher value, How long can we sustain ourselves by cutting each others hair and not dealing with the county’s loss of its manufacturing base, the ultimate source of true wealth.
I respect and admire your integrity and passion to help people…as a way to EARN a living…I truly read what you send me…and keep your insights as a part of my decisions…
Thank you for your generosity and Inclusionary attitude…
Here is something I see as a Writer and Award Winning Filmmaker…
What no one is talking about is something far more dangerous then the market…it took 8 decades for the auto industry to CREATE jobs…and what no one is dealing with is what will REALLY Happen when the Millions of NEVER before unemployed … at the same time…and in the MILLIONS…who had UNIONS to protect them and who destroyed the Companies…will now become Large numbers of ARMED and mentally unbalanced and desperate souls…who are at the ages that they will not find work WHEN their Unemployment runs out…No one wants to talk about this…we are not talking about a small company going out of business…we are talking about HUGE companies that are a Huge part of our Countries Industrialized Identity…Cars are like Baseball…it’s apart of our sense of who we are…
In America Before this crisis on average…between 14,000 and 25,000 Americans commit violent Crimes with weapons that all lead to Murder and Death every year. Add 10 to 20 million once stable Americans who all of a sudden in 12 months from now still have no jobs…it is a Recipe for Revolution…Civil War…the haves and have not’s…the fed and starving…The Bloods and the Crip’s…gangs will be created…spread…like wild fire..more of a Divided Nation…economic hardship will split the Nation…
We are a nation with over 2 million prisoners…Largest in the World…we are not a peaceful laid back everyone is equal and we all take care of each other no matter what..it’s a very cut throat Nation…that needs to move quickly to help get new jobs for these citizens that will soon be at their Wits END…
Wall street? Banking? Credit? Mortgages?
We are talking about a basic problem about to shake this nation like nothing else…a Nation that Encouraged it’s people to live ABOVE THEIR means…and now we will see a CONFRONTATION…of survival…Food and Shelter will be the REALITY…and when you think what took years to build to create stability for all these citizens …good descent people …lied to about mortgagees and Credit so some real estate agent could make a Fee…without any responsibility to that family to ensure that they were making a deal that they could live with…
So…when you ask about what I see…I hear about more money for BANKS…unless America realizes it is no longer a cutting edge Leader in making things…and that Americans don’t want to be paid a FAIR wage…but want to have a partnership position that they have 100% benefits and no responsibility to what that does to the Profit of a company…UNIONS destroyed the Competitiveness of our companies…Americans Lived above their Earnings and will now face what it is they contributed to the current debacle of a nation that lost it’s way…
So…this is a time that will fool many…and there is a time for Quick profits …but the Storm is coming…all we felt was the Warning…to take cover…and that we are in trouble…the diagnosis is in…Our Nation has Financial CANCER…and it is killing Millions…the Virus of Greed and living above your means is a difficult one to stop…
Take a look at history…The Greeks …The Romans…and they too believed in the end in a different reality about their personal behavior…their morals and ethics were EXTREMELY Abarrated….meaning not Morally sound…Virtues and traditional behavior was Challenged…and the FEW demanded what they wanted to be the Norm…and that also contributed to the Fall…lack of Ethics…our Wall Street friends…have no Ethics…and Bernie Madoff proved that given a chance to steal…it was NORMAL…acceptable…and smart…and they would pat themselves on the back for every dollar the were stealing…when you can not trust the leaders of the Institutions then the people lose FAITH…and that means they will be forced to survive any way they can…any way…once they have been abandoned and they will be…
So…America is at a Moral and Ethical crossroad…and the market will not solve the problems of the nations soul…
This is a far deeper story then the economy…I suggest you visit Detroit…walk the street of all the cities and see the number of Homeless…all over the NATION
I see Angry Americans that when they can no longer eat…and have no where to live…and the New Jobs hire young kids…for cheap…and we still have 35-65 year old nation of Millions lost…it sounds like a very dangerous scenario…once Unemployment is gone…and I mean after 3 – 4 extensions…there will be another Huge amount of Foreclosures when the next LUMP of increases in payments Explode …from the sub prime deals…and then the following year…so…this is a quiet STORM…we got hit with External Wave on the Edge of the storm…and we put up some Walls called bailouts…but soon the Storm will hit Internally and externally…from within the MILLIONS And Millions of Unemployed…
So…no matter how High the Stock market goes…until the UNEMPLOYED MILLIONS are back to work…we have a TIME BOMB TICKING…
Gentlemen, Thank you for the opportunity to communicate with you. 1/10 of my investment is in gold coin. The rest is in two places. My minimal retirement account has been placed in what amounts to a CD type investment. The majority of my holdings are in Allianz annuities which will mature in less than four years. My question is weather I should take a loss of 10 to 15% to cash in the annuity or hang in there? Thanks for your consideration, John
Some of your readers may be 80+ years like me. Our time horizons and appetite for risk are not the same as other younger investors.
Martin, I feel that we need to follow the housing inventory for some time and also the banking crisis to make a good call on the Market direction. I’ve been doing fine with buying the financial’s at the low and selling them recently.I like your advise on buying into the corporate bond market and plan on doing so soon. I’m looking forward to reading your book! Hope all is well with you and you family!
Thanks.
Bob
The market will continue to be choppy for the next year or two–so, my approach is to invest in neccesities. Oil, natural gas and food and everything for children will always be in demand and this administration has assured they will become more expensive. I believe we will see oil at 60-70 dollars a barrel this year–so that is my #1 defensive investment.
In answer to your question, we were so far down that we had to come back to a more reasonalbe level — but, I dont think we have seen the end of the turmoil. I believe that necessities will continue to gain along with inovation as other businesses will flounder for the next year or two. The wild card is what the public perception becomes,
if people are so positive that Obama can talk his way to properity by just saying it is true-who knows.
Hello all,
Martin’s latest book is excellent, everyone should give it a read. Currently, I am buying up gold and silver bullion. While I favor PAMP and JM, does anyone have an opinion on APMEX and Istanbul Refinery ? Anyone subscribe to Jim Dines Letter ?
Good luck everyone, MAM and Uncommon Wisdom are hands down the best info out there.
Scott
There is universal consensus that the Treasury and Fed. will print as much money as they can to resurrect this “help I’ve fallen & I can’t get up” economy. The original fear was that rampent inflation would follow. However, inflation requires too many dollars chasing too few goods and services. This crisis feels different, in that the there is no trickle down of the massive amount of money thrown around. Therefore the average worker or retiree isn’t seeing the bailout funds in his pocket, so no buying spree to come. Most of the receiving institutions, banks, investment firms and insurance companies, are retaining the TARP and other funds to attempt to shore up their balance sheets. So inflation, may take years to hit. This knee jerk rally isn’t real, just another ploy to make the investor feel better and ultimately another chance for the wolves to slaughter the sheep.
My concern is that remaining in treasuries indefinately seem prudent, but the returns are abysmal. Ditto, if Im right, waiting for inflation so as to lock up juicy yields which allow keeping up with decreased purchasing power, may not happen for some time.
I agree with Martin, staying safe for now is the only rational choice until the gathering storm of commercial real estate and credit card defaults pass.
Just my plan and opinion.
Martin:
I have been reading your email advice and other information religiously, and for the
most part, your advice has been of doom and gloom in the markets. Your message-
get out of the markets, it’s not over yet.
I am totally dismayed that suddenly you would ask me what I think.
I don’t think, I depend on you to call the bottom and flag the upturn.
There is somewhat of a rally going on, is it susatainable? In light of the massive
infusion of capital by the government, an event that has never happened before,
can we rely on historical market response to tell us that we should enter the
market again or not.
It seems to me that a burst bubble is usually corrected by the creation of another
bubble. Call the bubble, Martin.
Lorenzo
I don’t believe it’s real. I expect DOW 8440 to be a top and at least a 1000 point decline. Finaancials are ‘time bombs’. Planning to reenter SKF & SRS at $46& $20, respectively.
This is a bear market rally. They happen in every bear market. I bought into the S & % about 15% ago, and am getting out today. I agree that is risky, but trading can work if you are nimble.
Dear Martin: I obtained the name of your organization from R. Prechter’s book”Conquer The Crash’ in 2002,as you were one of his recommendation’s for info.
I believe his scenario & prediction’s of how things would play out,& for the most part,it is playing out as predicted. I find your info and your concern for people tobe commendable & genuine. I may not be able to fight this garbage that’s been going on much longer,as i don’t have the financial resources to do so,but this rally is nothing more than a sucker’s rally,with insider’s selling into it all the way. This thing will collapse by mid summer,or the fall at the latest. You and Bob Prechter,amongst a few other’s have been & continue to provide a great service to people willing to listen. You are to be commended and thank you! Ken G.
Dear Martin
Please keep up the good work.
My friends fall in four categories. The lucky ones still have their salaries and work about 25% more, the majority have taken a 20-50% pay cut and some took a 100% hit. Retirees are losing about 1% per month while the government employees (and the me hanger-ons) are complaining about their pay raises not being large enough.
Is there any way that you can publish the pay raises that the politicians took this year? Sort of like that report (that they managed to bury) on how the top ten at Delta Air shafted the rest. I’ve heard figures up to 31% for Washington and Honolulu.
Aloha
Bill
Martin
When “Bad News” translates into a stock market rally you know the world is really in trouble because the market is not supported by fundamentals but by Wall Street and Government “HYPE”. What’s really worrisome is the current Investor manipulation by the President’s anti-plunge team, FED and Treasury through misleading information and statistics.
The U.S. Stock Markets are the last “Bastion” of Defense”. If they were to substantially decline then U.S. consumer and the world would lose confidence and trust in the U.S. government’s ability to overcome the current financial crisis and declining economy. If that were the case major markets would probably collaspe overnight.
The current stock market rally is nothing more than a positive reaction to Hype from the President, Bernanke, Geithner and all the talking heads on CNBC and other media to talk up the Economy. You know everybody is beginning to see “Green Shoots” all over the place . . . . . the problem is that these are really MIRAGES !
The reason for all this “Positive Spin” about the U.S. Economy is SIMPLE. If we can’t show U.S. and Foreign investors that the future looks better than the current situation then the U.S. Treasury is going to have a heel of a time selling its Notes and Bonds to fund all their handouts and Bailouts now and in the future. And we know what that would mean.
The current Economic crisis is not due to the “Sub-prime Mortgage” market tanking . . . . it is do to the end of the “Credit Money System” which could no longer support the House “Debt” Of Cards. The economy is not going to be fixed until we address that problem. That means establishing a new standard by which paper currency can be measured. Washington and Wall Street don’t want that to happen because it ties their hands and shows what real inflation is all about. Therefore its going to be a long time before we see any real maintainable recovery. The Stock markets don’t reflect market conditions . . . . they do reflect Investor sentiments and they can be easily manipulated. Just look at the current situation !
Everybody on Wall Street is worried about their job and if they are not they should be.
There is so much wrong, who can list it all. To start, housing has never stopped a decline while unemployment was rising. Therefore, those (including Buffet) who think that the housing crisis is leveling are out to left field.
Secondly, unemployment, usually a lagging indicator is swelling each month. We are going to hit at least 10% before employment even begins to settle. The last time we saw a number like that was 1982. However, there are major differences between then and now. One of the biggest is the fact that there is $1.25 trillion in credit card debt out there now; I presume it was a great deal less in 1982. Also, how many households are upside down on their mortgages and have car payments when compared to 1982? The debt load is going to kill these individuals who are losing their jobs.
Next, the government is picking the winners and losers in this market. Sadly, they are pathetic at this practice. Name one ‘business’ they can run. Amtrak. The Post Office. All losing propositions.
Finally, the car industry will go through a major consolidation even with all the bailout money. There were 12 million cars sold a couple of years ago; now the industry is poised to average 9 million. That is a 25% decrease across the industry. There needs to be a consolidation which will mean more layoffs of employees at the manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers. Welcome to higher unemployment.
These are just a few of the reasons for another drop in the market.
Thanks to your book, I am now in Treasury Bills and have some gold stocks. Our daughter just got laid off after 22 years with Avaya! We are retired, so I have to be careful with our invetments, yet I will probably have to help our daughter. I subscribe to your Safe Money report, but is there something I should be doing now so that I can help our daughter? Thanks for your help!
With all the boasting of CNBC commentators calling in the crush of the bears, it intimates the dire control of major media to reinforce gov. sentiment to prop its “plan” to restore our economy. As a fact by artificially propping up the financials with the presidential plunger team, equities can grow without earnings! While investigations commence on the shorting of the market, what are the odds on investigating the plunger team driving the market up to enhance lies about our banking system that in the end supports international corporate positions to the expence of generations of the masses. Lies, liers and lying, the only obvious reason why intelligent commentators could say the bulls are in control is through cowardess to keep their jobs secure, or they are truly that ignorant. The length of this rally is testiment to the power of printing money out of thin air and the hocus pocus of the plunger team manipulations. As with toothfairy optimism that is driving money from the sidelines into equities so that every possible dime held by investors can be taken at a choosen ripe moment fit with all the right excuses to decieve once again.
The rally is a trap. Short bull rally with in the bear market. Move money to short term treasury notes and money market funds. I thnk the dow will rally to almost 10,000 and then the bottom is going to fall out. I will purchase my inverse ETFs on news I receive from Money and Markets.
I am currently a subscriber to SMR and RWR as well as the MCP and have the following concerns:
1. I just got off the phone with a rep from the International Monetary Metals firm located in Florida. According to the rep I can purchase silver and reap a % gain in excess of what gold is expected to do. He also said that my profits would be untaxable and that gold and silver are very “private” investments. He made it sound very lucrative with a price of 13.50 today, expecting a rise to 17.50 in near future–suggesting that I would get a call with recommendation to sell around 17.50 and get another phone call when it was time to get back in on the approx pull back of 14.50. He then expects a move to 21.50. He said some people use silver in this way “to live on”
–BUT I NEED VERIFICATION OF THIS PHONE CONTACT–. What say you?
We are retired teachers living on the pension from the California State Teachers Retirement System. I would like to know how secure this pension is within the company itself — and can the CA government change this pension and use some of its money for the financial mess that the state is in? — can Obama mess with it?
I am currently reading your book Martin, and although I wish I could say I understand everything you talk about I am finding it to be very helpful in my understanding or lack thereof. At any rate, if anyone believes that we are out of the woods they have major blinders on. It has to fall and we as consumers must make a stand to not waste our money buying what we cannot pay for now, this buy now pay later has come to a halt or is trying to anyway and that is a good thing. Everyone is not entitled to a huge home, the newest cars and gadgets, everyone is entitled to exactly what they can pay for as they go, if a loan is necessary then the income should be there if not then it is never a real sale, only a ghost of a sale and somewhere it is listed as liability not asset, or credit or debit, whichever terminoglogy is needed. All those subprime sales were liabilities at the onset, even though they appeared as sales of homes, they weren’t and anyone with just a bit of sense would have looked past that. I have lived in a state where there were 5 years when everything would be booming and the next five would be downturn, it always evened out and a lot of people learned great lessons that allowed them to profit from the down times because they saved and became debt free during the good times, whatever happened to personal responsbility? Well in the buy now pay later stage many did not have the means to even begin to pay later, paying the minimum has caused their own demise. Those people will never pay off their debt and at some point someone will just burn the papers and throw them in the wind for all their worthlessness, but the damage is done, we cannot pay off by borrowing. I hope to learn a lot from your book and the web casts that I have watched and reading your e-mail newsletters. It is all above my abilities but with time I can understand and make sound decisions. Thank you for making loud and correct counsel. Your father taught you well. One day at a time. Thanks again.
Dear Martie! we got our money in CD’s and a short term Annuity which I would have never done a few yeaers ago, but we are 8o years young and want to afford a good funeral in 10 more years, thats our plan, we have 400,000 plus a 300,00 hiuse here in the garden spot of FLorida, Homosassa. Godd hunting!
Your advise has been great over the years, saving my family’s future.
It is always tempting to jump back in. Loved your book.
I also read the “anaylsis of the bear” recently. They claim increasing copper prices, increasing auto sales, price/book of .7 and ignoring good signs are signs a true bottom. I only see the first happening in the US ( 2/4 in China). I agree this depression is more like Japan and the Great depression, hard to imagine it is really over so soon.
I once believed that the media focused on mostly negative news. But since last September 15, I have seen almost no bad news except that buried deeply in otherwise prestigious periodicals. It’s tough to buck the herd mentality but for once I feel like I’m on the right side of these issues with a healthy skepticism. What we are hearing from our government and the Wall Streeters is total crap. I plan to follow Martin’s advice…even when it hurts. I think he knows what is really happening. And I really appreciate that Claus bends over backwards to give the very informative updates on his thinking. This is a true education in economic reality.
I am playing this rally on a very short term basis. I am being very cautious and only investing a small percentage of my capital.
Martin,
I’ve been very cautious about what and where the market is trying to tell us. I have not moved my money out of safe fund within my 401K. But would like to move some of it into Boeing stock. Boeing stock bottom out at 29 $ about 3-4 weeks ago and has now moved into the 41 $ area. What are your thoughts?
We are likely in a bear market rally. Wife’s 401k down 11% (conservative portfolio) from Nov high, not counting contributions. Her company is changing administrators and the plan will go black from May 8th to June 19th. Would it be best to leave it, as is, or put it in the Retirement Preservation Trust until after the blackout?
Thanks,
Bill
ron 5/5/09 at 3:48pm i am confused. banks, credit, and housing still in the dumps yet uncle sam tells us it is getting better. baloney. gold, cash, money mkt funds and good natural resource stocks seem to me the only answer. proshares SH seems like a good bet but it continues to go down. by the way, i think geithner is out of his element-whatever that is. any suggestions?
I thought Ben Bernake was a student of the Great Depression. How come he goes along with the “fixes” that didn’t fix things at that time?
Generals tend to fight the next war the same as the last and so I think we need to ask ourselves (in relation to any depression), “(How?) Is it (really?) different this time? In other words, what has changed since the Great Depression that could cause things to turn out differently this time? I am almost at the end of Martin’s book yet, which has some great advice in it, but have seen no mention of China and East Asia. So, my area of concern (and question to Martin) is, what difference does he and his team think the underlying and continuing growth in China will make to his thinking? Similarly, South America seems to be relatively free of the credit crunch. Maybe these two economic areas will make the outcome differnt this time? If not, then why not?
With all of the bad assets moving up the financial food chain to the FED’s balance sheet as well as a couple hundred billion borrowing every few weeks, our government’s bonds are looking less and less attractive to those big lenders who have kept the party going for such a long time. Does not that mean higher interest rates? If so, any market rallies are toast. Also, Americans are being forced to de-leverage their credit positions because of falling housing prices, job losses or the fear of losing their jobs. I don’t think they are looking to put big bucks in the market right now. Finally, market internals are really crappy (new highs should be soaring in a real bull market but they are anemic) and volume is not going up as the prices increase. That is an essential in any bull market – you need buyers in ever increasing volume to sustain a rally, all you need is a lack of buyers in a bear market – if anything volume is decreasing as prices go up. Although I live by the axiom that a trend will last much longer than you think it will, I will be surprised if this rally has any long term legs unless a lot of fundamentals in the economy and technicals in the market turn around.
Dr. Weiss;
It’s great little book. It, and paying attention to you and your colleagues hasn’t made me any smarter, simply more aware, but knowing the situation is just a matter of paying attention to do those who know the scene and comment honestly. Take a cigar.
I live kitty corner from Fla on Vancouver Island in BC. Canada hasn’t reached the depths of recession situation in the US, nor does it appear to have participated in the derivative marvels of some US financial institutions. No bank failures, none anticipated. I have money outside my RRIF (US 401K I think), and have made my first gold buy, one more to come to a total 12 Ozs, about 20% of my stash outside the RRIF. Now working on agricultural investments, starting maybe with Potash (I’m buying all Cdn just now) the RRIF has restrictions on fund components. Not sure what after that.
Canada’s trade position with the US means not only does Cda get sniffles and catch the same cold, it also follows along when the cold turns to flu. The shoe may drop soon.
Good luck. You have fine people in your enterprise and you’re not so bad yourself! NG
Hi Martin, I have recently viewed a movie called The Obama Deception that has really opened my eyes to what is really going on in Washington and on wall street. In it, it reveals who, not what ( besides derivatives) has really caused this economic collapse. I am glad to see someone on here already mention the one world government trying to be pushed on us. I was wondering if you have seen this movie yet. If not I think you should. Everything in it makes sense to me now. What is your opinion about this? I recommend watching this movie to all people who see this message on here. People need to wake up and realize what is really going on in Washington and react accordingly. It is viewable on youtube. Just do a search for The Obama Deception. You will be surprised who is involved in all this.
Dear Martin,
I am very wary of this rally!!!!
The top may be 9— or 10,000 but it is really just a scam. Still my SRS and shorts are way down. I would like to short long term treasuries, but I don’t like options or futures and 2 or 3 times ETF’s often dont do a good job of mirroring the underlying index. Would love to know which ETF’s are faithful like the SPY.
Really enjoy your views. The uncommon wisdom site is also interesting. Timing is the most difficult of all for me.
Take care and all the best.
Well done Martin you have achieved fame even in this part of the world.
Have your book on order.
What are the pitfalls of inverse ETF’s?
I thonk we are facong the collaps fo the secong roman empire in worst shape than the lst empire was a new dark age is ahead. Stimulus will only destroy more longer. I think this is known and done on purpose to consolidate power. 2/3 or more of the world is doomed . Not much can be done as it will all be stolen in the end.(stimulused). The world is returning to canibalism & slavery . If there is such a thing as the rqapture this is a very good time for it. Any kind of paper is not likely to help much. Scoosen thinks we are at the bottom sounds like a propaganda tool. OF WHAT i READ yours is the most correct.
Guide was a great read and will be a great $$ planning tool. Looking to gear my moves in ETF & Money Market vehicles. All this talk(Guide, web, etc..) about the bottom leaves me with situational planning paralysis on pulling trigger.
Big question is: Are the informed Money & Market folks thinking the bottom was not in Mar. 09 and/or we headed back to that point of below?
Hello Martin: I think that the recent rally is soon to be a “bear trap”. I also agree with “go away in May” which will soon pummel the market during the summer, particularly as our unemployment rate continues its ascent.
My chief concern at this time is the inevitable depreciation of our US currency. I am reminded of the Weimar republic with its wheelbarrows of cash to go grocery shopping.
I am curremtly looking for market neutral investments such as Real Estate. What other alternative investments other than gold would you recommend?
I took an early retirement in Oct. 2007 so I can’t make a large mistake. I already did that by buying Hybrid Pfd. securities that tanked by about 75% at the low and have recovered partially.
Thank you
Jim
Probably a “hopeful” rally w/o any real fundamentals to support it, not to mention the HUGE uncertainty of what comes next from the government. HOWEVER, I would love to take advantage of the “bounces” intra-term instead of just sitting and watching Bear holdings decline.
hello martin. buddy hawkins from greenville, s.c. i just thought i might share a few thoughts about the state of “everything”. first of all, thank you for your insightfull information and advise. i cannot tell you how many times i used you as my guru. i took your advise bought some hand held physcial gold, and pulled some cash out of my bank and set up my own private bank with the purchase of a safe. i named my newly formed bank, the bank of s.o.s. addtionally when i turned 59 1/2 i cashed in my 401k and did not re-invest. most everyone told me how stupied i was and i just smiled. i did this in july of 2008, after loosing my job in february of 2008. i’m a conservative and felt strongly the liberal canidate would eventually win, which he did. what that meant to me was an increase in taxes, taxes, and taxes. the determing factors other than taxes, was i wanted physcial control of my money. i also knew that i would end up paying more taxes in the next 4 to 8 years. bottom line is, i accomplished what i wanted to do. gained full control of my money and lost less money. by taking a hit on my 401k when i did, i saved about $9000.00 in my 401k. otherwise, i would have been like everyone else, and taken hits of 30% to 40%.
thanks
I think that the current surge in the stock markets is a deadcat bounce that will eventually retrace its position. I think that there are certain stocks out there that will hold themselves through the current turmoil and remain solid, but I for one am keeping my poweder dry and my investment funds in short term ( 3 month Treasuries) to use once the turmoil has subsided, which I feel is going to be quite some time on the offing.
I do not see the turn around myself. The only thing I see here is the hype response from all the money that was thrown into the mix. I hope there are those that profit. The media are not to be trusted anymore than the brokers. When wall street plays the organ those monkeys dance the propaganda dance. The commercial market is in a death spiral that everyone seems to be trying to ignore. Jobs are not being created and without demand from buyers nothing moves permanently.
I have read the book and it is very enlightning. Thank you for all your hard work keeping us ahead of the curve.
April of this year reminds me of October 2002. Earnings for the 3rd quarter of that
year were expected to be very bad. When company earnings were annouced, some
companies exceeded expectations and other companies’s earnings while not
good, were better than projected by analysts. The stock market went up and down for several months and then took off. I see a similarity when looking at 1st quarter earnings
for 2009. I am concerned that banks’ earning were helped by valuing assets not at
market but at higher values. I also fear our President’s fiancial policies may hinder and
hold down upswings in the economy. I did move cautiously at the beginning of April
from some fixed assets into equities.
Hello Martin,
I been watching this circus from the distance,and it gets better-worse by the day.
By not doing anything “investing” you are making money,what i see as a Pawn Broker we are going into a hole deeper by the day!This is a disaster for everybody,no winners, only for short term.Long haul will be deadly at least for five years.
I am like a lonely wolf waiting “ideling-listening to you”
Thank You
God Bless
Nandor
Martin, I feel that you are correct in your earlier forecasts of the ending of the bearmkt. rally around the 10,000 dow level, which is not too much longer. The optimistic political hacks are toeing the current line of over-optimisim for feeding to the public to get them spending and staying deeper in debt, These debtors will not turn the economy around. The news from govt. is nothing but a house of mirrors of delusion, until govt truly works on the causes of the crash in a real way. This includes putting enforced regulations in play, especially for derivatives markets and letting “Too big to fail” idea go into the waste basket where it belongs. I still see CEO’S legally robbing their co’s with exorbant pay & benefits. What ceo is worth a $117 million a yr for any company of any large size like the Cheasapeake Energy ceo. Come-on board of directors, there are a lot of wise, good ceo’s that will work for $10 million or less and be glad they are employed. Our business community seems to have forgotten, that before any ceo receives a raise, FIRST give the stockholders–your bosses a dividend or dividend increase and if he or she did such a great job that year–why didn’t the value of the mkt price of the stock be increasing in mkt value first and continuing to grow in mkt value rather than only a spike in price for one or two days when some optimistic BS was released? If directors can’t reward their stockholder bosses first they too should be replaced. We need more ceo’s to run the companies in the right manner and not just to work the numbers for setting up their overpaid bonus each yr.
I will use the $250 stimulus money Obama is paying to all Social Security recipients to buy some more gold holdings or increase holdings in one of my food, consumer staples, energy or pipeline infrastructure equity holdings— all of which are paying dividends and to watch the inverse etf stks. for positioning when time is right.
Bottom line: take advantage of the current political BS to trade short term or get position in good dividend payers that are strong companies with good mgmnt, that can cut costs and run a lean co that is still making the profit side of the ledger for the next several yrs. Meanwhile, I have bought over the last 4 yrs a total of 12 earth box growing containers to grow fresh vegetables and cut my food costs and I am enjoying the growing challenge fighting the insects organically. I feel a good new depression will actually be benificial to restoring America’s great character & moral values once again. Our great country has become too spoiled and its leaders are in an area of being very gutless and stupid in not letting the market do its thing with only minimum govt help. Let us pray our current leaders become wiser and break the shackles of being obligated to special interests rather than to the whole country’s best interest. A real depression does change a person’s outlook and humbles a person in way’s they didn’t know they could go. I am a child of the first depression so I saw these things happen first hand. A good kick in the pants, does wake a reluctant person to changeing their outlook & bad habits. If they don’t then they will starve and be a real loser.
I am seeing here in Dallas, Texas increasing strip & mall spaces becoming empty & available for lease. They are not being re-leased so that tells me a commercial real estate crash of bad loans are rising to the top and will be headlines before long. Second largest mall operator General Growth Properties was the first a few months ago.
Credibility issue!! The talking (lying) heads claim no responsibility for the “crisis”, declare that only they are able to solve this “crisis”, and after a few press conferences declare the “crisis” over? Well isn’t that nice of them!! I’m sleeping better now. I hope the rally goes a bit higher. As soon as the $NYSI starts to roll over I’m loading up index puts. What a gift from the liars.
After losing 40+% in Magellan & confidence in DJIA, I decided to buy into mostly med-sm cap value stocks. here they are: AFL, AVAV, BP, BTO, CX, DOW, ESLR, F, FRP, GE, PDS, T, TAXI, XRX; gains range from 4.25 – 187.25% – GE & PDS in the red but under 12%, I have stuck with GE, its financial sector which drags it down is only 30%; PDS is biggest oil drilling outfit in North America and will go into positive mode when oil goes above $55-$60/barrel.
There is about $4 trillion parked on the sidelines waiting to move into equities, but I am being very cautious and monitor my small portfolio continuously. I may not be diversified as well as I should be, but can’t be too far off the mark. My bottom line is an average of 40.74% in gains. It appears I have nearly reached the break-even point.
Stock market right now is a gypsy street market. Crooks, criminals and con men and women. Nothing rational or intelligent. Computers and irrational day traders rule. And did a broker ever tell you to sell? How sick is an industry that won’t, can’t even use the word–hold means sell. I sit on cash and gold. Making little but not loosing principal. Looking forward (NOT) to the fed dolts taking more and more. God Bless America. God Will Save America.
Hi Martin,
It is a very interesting Market. Frankly I love it. It is making me lot’s of money. I trade ETF’s long and short, so I do not care which way the market goes as I am always on the right side of it. 50% bonds, 10% cash, 40% trading EFT’s.
Thanks for all your efforts and I really read everything you put on the web and listen to most of your web-casts.
Keep up the good work.
Mr. Weiss, I think the worst is yet to come! I just got your book, and will start to read it very shortly. I have money in a CD in Wachovia. I get it out in July of this year. Also money in Annuities. But with large penaltys if I take the money out. Any suggestions? You have saved me much money over the years. THANKS!!
I have been watching this rally with misgivings. I don’t think it can last a lot longer because it’s not based on reality. A lot of emotion is driving people who want to see things improve, but until private businesses start showing real gains in their bottom lines higher stock prices will not stand the test of time. The shoe can fall off the other foot at any time.
This market may get another leg up on Friday when they manipulate the market with fake stress test results. This should give the market a parabolic rally. $SPX target is 1,000. Dow could reach 9000.
Remember, they want to give the impression that the worst is over. This will draw in more longs rushing to get into the market as not to miss the next big bull market. Not knowing that this bear market rally is a sham they will get left holding the bag and the market will collapse!
When the market collapses this time there will be NO REBOUND!!! Those who bought the false breakout will no longer trust govt or wallstreet and the public will lose confidence in the system and that will give the market that last push overboard the steep cliff.
Market could stay VERY low for a very long time!!
We are looking at the mother of all stock market collapses of which there will be no coming back!
So keep buying until key support is broken ………then sell everything and don’t look back.
Hi Martin, I’ve enjoyed reading your book and your columns for over a year now. I am going through financial difficulties even though I have a steady job! I invested in two pieces of property, one in my area which I rent out and one in Spain, where I want to retire. Unfortunately had a bad contractor that caused a retaining wall to fall near my pool and a leaking roof (all in spain) and have spent over 50,000 euros repairing everything!! As you know, the euro is much higher than the dollar and since I make less than 100,000 a year, these problems have put me over the top~~ Therefore I’m in the process of selling my property here, and hoping to get a decent price, and keeping my retirement haven. I’m also hoping to net about $50,000 on the property here, and want to invest it in my property in spain. Currently I owe 115,000 euros on it. Here’s the problem, I’m concerned about the dropping value of the dollar. I study it everyday, and it fluctates from .75 to .79 to the euro. I know it will get much worse soon, who knows how low the dollar will sink? I need to do some work at my place in spain that will cost me about 20,000 euros. And though I want to put the money I make from my sell (when it sells!) to the principal, what I need to do around the place will increase the value of my property substantially. So do you think I should invest the money I get in rebuilding my place or just put it in the principal I owe? What is the best option? thanks so much, Jacqueline
Hey Martin,
We are in a real dilema. We listened to our stock broker (Edward Jones) and dutifully stayed in for the long term. Big mistake!!! Now we are unsure what to do. We want out but don’t want to take a 30% loss. We were hoping the rally would move the markets up so we could recoup some of our losses, but we want out now! Got any suggestions?
I think this rally is a set up by the banks and wall street and government.Credit is still tight, unemployment us up, corporate bottom line mostly showing negative. What is is supporting the really.
cay
My opinion is that the “rally” is probably just the same folks manipulating areas of the market to line their own pockets as they sell short in a few days.
AND I would like to know where I can apply to get the same deal as Senator Feinstein’s husband ($25 million for his business). I too could start up a really fine business with $25 million of taxpayer’s money.
Martin, I am reading your book now. I am trying to decide the inflation, defaltion issue. Wayne
Dr. Weiss,
If this rally is sustainable and the market rebounds significantly, is it possible that there was never a “real” market crash in the first place. How is it possible that we go from a world wide financial crisis to what is being called recovery in such a short period of time. God forbid that this crisis was concocted just for the purpose of Government Bailouts to finance failing or failed banks and select companies. On the other hand, a “real” market crash (correction) gives a very bleak future to older homeowner and investors who have seen their wealth disappear.
Dear Martin,
I value all of the information I have received from your e-mails and your webinars, especially the one last year on the banks going under. I’ve known for many years that this was coming but failed to really see that it was actually happening until your bank webinar. Thank you.
I have already sold all of my asste stocks as I know that the market will take a big dump. I am ready for that dump with ETF’s, also at your suggestion. (I’ve already made a lot of money this year with those ETF’s. Thank you.
I read your book and have shared it with my friends who think I am “over the top” as to what is going to happen to this country. Unfortunately they listen to a lot of BS on the news about the economy having “green shoots” and they actually believe that the economy is turning around. How could this be possible with more residential foreclosures coming and the worst, commercial foreclosures. Not to mention all the credit cards debts that are not being paid.
Unless people get jobs, which is no small feat at this point and until the people are spending, which won’t happen too soon, this country will be at the mercy of our government. That is my biggest fear.
I am a first generation immigrant and when my family came to this country my father thought he died and went heaven. In my country, Hungary, it was said that the streets in America were paved with gold and all you had to do was bend down to pick it up. For my Father, his every dream came true. He made a lot of money, bought and paid off properties and left his children money. I am glad that he died before all of this came about. It would have broken his heart that America was becoming what we had left in 1956.
The market rally, in my estimation is very dangerous and a lot more people who are buying into it will lose a lot of money once again. I am strictly bearish and will stay that way until I feel that things are really going up. That will be a long time with our administration messing up every aspect of our economy.
The one thing that bothers me in your book is the buying of treasuries. I believe that the treasuries will bomb as well.
Please keep up your invaluable and honest work and I look foward to learning more from you and your team.
Sincerely,
Anna aldredge
Anyone who reads the blogs or listens to NPR knows that the market is being manipulated. Call it the Plunge Protection Team or more likely their new proxies, i.e. the using tax-payer funded TARP funds. Watch the volumes each day – large investors are clearly coming in on thin trading & literally ‘buying up’ the S&P to keep it from sliding into a hole
Hello, Martin,
I have followed you for years and recall that you were warning about big bank derivatives problems a long, long time ago.
I can see no possible good outcome until the market takes its’ natural course and wrings out all of the trash and B.S.
I am accumulating LEAPS contracts, shorting the S&P500 and buying gold miners and gold (GLD and a little metal.
As a believer in the absolute of inflation, I am looking for an opportunity to buy a little commercial real estate (a warehouse or two; preferably a nonperforming loan a bank wants to get off their book). I have done this before with good result.
A couple of questions: Is metal safe in a bank safe deposit box? If the bank closes its doors, can I still get the contents of the box? When I buy gold specie from a dealer, is there a government requirement for that dealer to keep a record of the transaction? Do I have to worry about the dealer or his agent passing my address to a robber (it seems like a viable possibility in todays world)? Thank you.
I have come to respect the work of Dr. Weiss and his group over the past two years, having dismissed him as being overly alarmist in the Spring and Summer of 2007. How very clear and correct he has turned out to be ! By contrast, I read a May 4th research piece today by Brian Westbury, Chief Economist at First Trust, entitled “Recession Is Over; No More Shoes to Drop”. He is a proponent of the “V-shaped recovery” theory… which he states it looks like is now underway. Moreover, he points to the economic orthodoxy which holds that employment data, loan defaults, foreclosures and financial market problems are all lagging indicators…or at least not leading indicators, but that the stock market is…so, presto, the recession’s over.
Those of us who are professional market participants, who are expected to keep our clients safe…are sometimes torn between these two totally opposite views. With the entire concept of risk now center stage in our world, I surmise market participants ignore Dr. Weiss’s analysis at their own peril. Yes, massive liquidity injections by the Fed have probably kept the markets afloat for the moment….but it will probably cost us huge…inflation…further devaluation of the dollar, and a thorough crushing of the long Treasury bond.
I am with you every step of the way
Dear Martin :)
Too bad I can’t ask your dad Irving how much this rally looks like the rally of 1930. It would be very interesting.
With the DJIA going from 14000+ to 6500, the real estate bubble popping, many foreclosures and bankruptcies, and job layoffs, etc., this current bear market looks like a depression to me.
1. So the question I ask today is: if this _is_ a depression, are the days of long depressions over? The last short depressions happened in 1893 and 1907, both less than a year long. Then Federal Reserve happened in 1913. The next depression after that was the depression of 1918-1920, which was one and a half years long. And we all know about the “Great Depression” of 1929-1939.
2. One problem which still needs to be addressed is: how bad is the accounting situation? My second question is: can we believe what we read on company financial statements, or do we have an epidemic of companies whose real finances are out of sight, like Enron? In other words, do we still have an epidemic of Enrons?
Dear Martin, Larry, Mike, Tony, and to all who I am not remembering at this moment: You guys have a great team! Keep up the good work! Hope to buy Martin’s new book soon!
Your arguments showing that really, nothing has changed, is spot on. The politicians have their axes to grind otherwise only alternative will be that they will be without a job, same as millions all over the USA and world. No doubt, a Doctor is almost safe in saying: Don’t worry, take this medicine I am prescribing to you; the flu is a terrible experience, but ultimately, after a few days or weeks, you will be OK. We know that the medicine they give to you is “rubbish” and with many “side effects”; what really will make you OK is “time” and your own internal “immunity”(called sense of self-preservation). Looking at the subject from an another angle from your solid observations, I, as an amateur numeroligist, deduce as follows:-
(1) May (No.5) simply does not agree with 2009 (No. 2);
(2) February (no. 2) is within its father’s home (2009 (No.2) ,when SE started going up and carried on further with the Momentum (like a tanker) into mid-March;
(3) But coming back to the point (1) above, May will lead the mugs to the cliff’s edge and ultimately, the “Rift Valley” below. If and when FTSE, S&P500 hit below 3800/750, I am going to “fill up my pockets and boots”;
(4) Then it will be time to ride the “Wave” all the way to November 2009.
This is my own “game plan” but don’t follow me because I have no direct line to heaven (yet).
thanks martin for your many thoughts and advice regarding realestate your advice was well timed i sold three pieces of real estate at the top of the market approximately two years ago today i would be lucky to sell those three pieces for one third of the price even if i was able to find a buyer which is very doubtful many thanks dick
There is no way the market can sustain those prices when the profits of so many companies are in the tank. Sooner or later the investors will get tired of waiting for real profits and sell just like like they finally did in the dot.com bust. The only question is how far down the market will go.
Hi Martin. I think you are right in that,given the financial chaos and indiscrimminate borrowing by Obama, that this is is a bear trap.similar to many in previous recessions. As I can afford to take some risks , my portfolio consists of 80 % gold stocks apportioned senior golds juniors and some speculative stocks,10% uranium stocks and 10%canadian oils. So far this portfolio has done fairly well with great hopes on the upside if everything goes to hell in a basket. What do you think? I just cannot see where borrowing and propping up businesses and eartags to the tune of trillions can produce anything but disaster. The only polititan I could trust is Ron Paul. His plan to lower business tax from 35% to 25 % makes sense in that business creates real jobs. Fat chance of Obama doing something doing something similar, I note that Reagan and Thatcher had great success with similar business friendly policies in 1981. Sincerely .Jerry Blumenschein
I saw you on Kudlow Report and he doesn’t to seem to want any bad news or anyone doubting the “Bull Market rally”. I enjoy your feedbacks. Are these cos. reporting bad news so their stocks will go down and then the cos. buy them back?
Chuck Kennell
I am am aussie so i am not living the experience that u.s. citizens are. But in my dealings with them i get the feeling that they are not understanding the depth of their problems. I think they are just sitting there hoping defencelessly that it will all just go away. After the pearl harbour attack they rose up and industrial production grew in leaps and bounds because they knew who the enemy was. It was easy then,but how do you fight bach against your own government,when they are the ones that created the problem and are then given tre job of solving it. Good luck to you and just remember the wisdom of Chevy Chase”We are Americans we can do anything”
Hi Martin,
Despite all the unemployment, cutbacks, layoffs, etc there are lots of wealthy people and hedge funds just waiting to get into the market at the right time. All of them are afraid of missing the boat. Besides there are lots of foreign funds that cannot resist the once in a lifetime bargains that are available here. Sure there may be some correction tomorrow but a year from today many of those watching by the sidelines will be kicking themselves. I have been through 3 major cycles in my lifetime and history has shown that the recovery is much faster than expected. I am not saying that you should spend all your money today but it would be a good idea to go about picking the sweetest fruits at a great price as long as you have 5 more years of life.
Martin,
I’m generally following your advice and support your view that this is just a bear market rally. I’m holding on to some of my commodity/materials stocks (BHP, CCJ, APA, etc.), which at least are participating in this rally—while some of the counter bull investments like DOG are getting smaller!
I enjoyed your book!
Best wishes.
Jerry
The market right now is all smokes and mirrors and basically, people are looking for hope and everyone wants too see a recovery more then ever. What people just do not get, is the market we not make a come back like it did before
What society is not getting, is that it going to take a very long time to get back to where we were and the time we have will help us make new decision. Hopefully, we will make wiser choices for both the present and future. Greats empathy on folks that have lost a lot from this cycle of financial trouble but I feel in the end this is going to make us a better nation today and for tomorrow.
On the other hand, I am very worried about hyper-inflation and we as Americans have not ever experience hyper inflation in this country. We have but not the extend that many other countries have in the past . People just do not like history and history tells us a lot and if only we really listen.
Americans cannot really ever think on no!!!! 50.00 for loaf of bread!!! or more. People would freak!!! So that give us the answer and I just do not know where we are all going. Right now we are in deflation but once we hit inflation and I do not even think the Federal Reserves could helps us if they want too or our government. What going to be will be and I feel it a big lesson that we all have to go through and learn from our mistakes. Yes, we need to have money in order to buy goods and services and take care of our responsiblities but not be greedy or hurt others trying to do get there.
People forget that greed was the number reason why we got here in the first place. Just a little note: The love of money is the root of all evil. Not money is root of all evil but the Love for money is the root of all evil.
All I can say is, if they say what they are saying about 2012 and I guess we do not have to get our paper’s in order or do we? Remember Y2K!!!!!!! Trust me we will be around for a very long time.
Sincerely,
Tess
The choice really is between inflation and deflation; but every nuance of sector will be different – a few years worth of housing deflation to come all the while metals look strong (relatively speaking) due to the physical printing of dollars.
This suckers rally looks like a traders play done with theoretical stimulus money. They may make the support levels and this may convince the masses that everything is fine. They always need another sucker to hand off too. Look how many were holding it last Fall. Look how many rode it straight into the ground.
For now cash and metals look good.
Several months ago I transferred 403b assets out of mutual funds and into a money market fund in the insurance co. that has my 403b. How can I check on the strength of insurance companies? Also how can I check on the strength of credit unions?
Martin, my husband and I are retired and are in our 70s. We were depending on SS to last until we die. That is the only source of income we have. We had a small business but always had to put money back into it to survive. About 30 years ago, we were able to buy a log cabin over the years in the mountains of NC. That was to be our 401K for retirement. We had hoped to sell it to pay off our mortgage of our retirement home (around $70,000). We have a small amount in our MM with Bank of America (around $40,000). At this point we are not sure what to do. I am afraid that SS will not keep coming in due to the trillions our congress has wasted on stimulus bills and earmarks. Do you have any suggestions? If so, we would appreciate any advice. By the way, I bought your book and just got it, but haven’t read it yet. I enjoy your economic advice and look for it every day. May God bless you for helping others. Carolyn T
Martin, I was born before the great depresson. I know what it was like. Fortunately we lived on a farm where we were somewhat self sufficient. We were all poor.
I am unable to imagine what people would do today to survive.
Your forecasts and solutions are the best way to proceed. I think that you are right and hope that millions will take your advise. Keep promoting the Book. John
Which treasury-only money mkt. funds do you recommend that I can write cks. & deposit second party cks.? What are alternative vehicles to get out of American dollars? This economic crisis should be global, so I need your input. Thank you for your help.
It’s very hard to avoid repeating and re-hashing the ideas of others we have come to respect. One thought, possibly original, repeatedly comes to mind, e.g. when widespread stealing, obfuscation and outright deception are rampant, the overall economy is not very efficient. Too much effort is wasted trying to determine if “the other guy” is on the level. Until these costs are significantly reduced, our exports – and thus standards of living- will remain lower than they have to be. Is this a bear trap market rally? Sure it is.
I’m Australian, not at all ‘educated’ in the why’s and wherefore’s of economics, but my gut feeling is the rally is a fake.
I’m a nurse and I’ve seen dying people make a most amazing recovery of energy just prior to death, usually to say something to their loved ones, I think the market is having a similar pre-death surge.
I’m reading your book “Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” – it’s amazing, not at all boring like I expected a book about economics to be. It’s really easy to read and full of great information e.g. I had no idea the Australian Reserve Bank received money from the USA government! They don’t tell us that on the news “Down Under”!
Hi martin,
I am finding everything you talk about very interesting.I am using the information to the best of my understanding. I know our economy is in trouble.Living in Canada My question is how will this effect Canada, and is there something else we could or should be worried about.. Right now we don’t seem to be suffering as much as the U.S. but I know it is just a matter of time.
Keep up the good work. Bea
Subject: Leveraged ETF’s.
I have 25 years of trading experience and was concerned to see a fellow subscriber holding the SKF from $95. These are trading vehicles that I use all the time but they can be very risky. If it really starts to go against you, you need a stop loss. This bear market rally could well get the SKF down to 35 or less before all is said and done (and I personally have a buy order at that level). I am also looking at buying Oct 2009 call options struck at 30 as the financials continue their rally.
The key is to be very careful because of the leverage, when you lose 45 points, it will take twice the sell off in financials (and the way these things are contructed is also a major issue since they are created with futures and swaps–not the underlying stocks) to get back to that $95 level. The high on March 6th or thereabouts was $303. Now it is trading at $49. If you look at the inverse of the SKF, the UYG, it bottomed at $1.37 and this entire run up has only brought it back to $4–the 52 week high is 35.74. Once again, the leverage must be looked at over time. Use any charting tool to get a look at long term performance–Yahoo finance is fine. One interesting fact (since I trade almost all of these) is that the leveraged energy ETF’s from Profunds, the Dig (2xup) and the Dug (2xdown) have the following profiles:
Current Price for DIG: 26.88
52 Week High: 131.08
52 Week Low: 16.93
Current Price for DUG: 20.05
52 Week High:86.50
52 Week Low: 19.51
Last week they were trading within a dollar of eachother.
If you Google Leveraged ETF’s you will find a great deal of information regarding why the leveraged funds are not a long term hold when the market is going against you. I can understand why buying the SKF at $95 looked appealing at the time since it was a near the 52 week low. But please use stop losses. Bear market rallies can last longer than we think–one reason is that the extreme pessimism has to be shaken out of the market so the next leg down can get underway. The current market behavior rallying on “less bad” news and the “depression has been averted” rhetoric are fueling the fire despite any real evidence that the banks are anywhere near healthy–in fact we know they are just full of toxic waste.
Any questions? Please feel free to contact me at lindabecker19@gmail.com
Dear Martin,
I believe in cycles. When we look at where we have been cycle-wise and where we are at today, the conclusion I reach is that we had a 20 -25 year up leg that lifted everything to the sky, everything and everybody was distorted in unbleivable ways. We all lived better then our parants could have imagined. In doing so 50 to 70% of the population used up all their resources. This group will probably have to live from hand to mouth on mostly government aid for a long time. It will probably take a decade for this group to get their financial feet back on the ground. If I am correct then it is probable that we have yet to see the market bottom. Irving P
Martin I see no reason to ride this market down as I’ve done before and then look back and wish I’d had sense enough to get out. I agree we are in a suckers rally. People seem to believe every thing that washington says to encourage people back into the market. Sorry but I don’t believe or trust them. Thanks for your book, it is chock full of good advise. I am currently selling my stocks and mutual funds and raising cash against my financial advisers advise. Nikki
Market is a collection of mass belief and perception. The rally is nothing more or nothing less of the instant image of the mass. However, only a few wise investors are willing to dig furthermore to see the longer term.
Therefore, I congratulate you to remind everyone here the danger for follow the herd.
Take care,
Frank
ELLIOTT WAVE RULES…..THIS IS NOTHING BUT A PRIMARY WAVE 2 RALLY THAT
WILL FAIL, AND WHEN IT DOES, NUMBER 3 DOWN HITS WITH ALL FURY….
FINAL TARGET ON THE DOW INDUSTRIALS
400
REALLY I AM SERIOUS
400
ALOHA FROM HAWAII
STEPHEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So what have you done since you introduced your $1M investment in the 11 Laws of Bear Market success just as the market turned up. What are your losses to date and have you changed your strategy?
To those of you with 401ks. Please don’t close them out and pay the 40%. Open up an account with a low cost broker. I use Schwab. After you open your regular account, you each can open a self directed IRA and transfer your pre-tax funds tax free. The already Taxed contribution portion can go into the regular account. You can invest in almost anything in an IRA. We held Gold through the SPDR GLD earlier and made some serious money. You can also buy put and call options on ETFs and Stocks after they approve you. You can also sell COVERED calls then too. Cheap insurance.
Martin, God bless your dad for his many insights through your newsletter. We miss him too.
I turned 65 in March and now am (partially) on the “Govt Dole”. We were on track to independence since before 2000. I got out of stocks several years ago and Bought GLD at about $40 and put the rest in cash. I sold when it reached $90. I am looking to jump back in when the WTO sells their 2+tons of gold. I also sold my Houston house just before the market peaked. I had earlier paid off my land out here in the country. We had a steel building installed in the late ’90s (and since I had been RIF’d at 50, I wound up being my own contractor). (BTW Paslode cordless nail guns beat framing hammers hands down! I learned that.)
So, here we are, living in some nice woods, small place, Quiet, no financial concerns unless the One figures out how to tax “tax deferred” accounts. I have my own water well, a 10 KW generator, 1000 Gal Propane tank And all Propane appliances except AC, but that runs off of the generator when needed.
Martin, years ago, your newsletter pushed me to become financially secure. The only bills that we now have are insurance (the most expensive), Electricity, Gasoline, Food and all of the rest (not much). And on top of it all, My wife lost her job over a year ago. She works part time at an outplacement Firm, DBM. Ironic?
And finally, I bought and am reading your new book. Looks good.
Your logic on the economy and where the stock market is going appears sound, I just doubled up on my shares of DOG to day. I have a lot of gold mining shares in my IRA and have had a big loss from last fall when everything went south. I’m wondering if I should hold or sell, it seems that a lot of people think that gold is going to go $2000 in the next year or two. I have not seen any specific instruction in your Safe Money report on what to do with mining stocks. Help!
I personally believe it’s a bogus (possibly conspiracy) rally. How is it possible to go from dire (desperation)straits in January and February to the world is back on track to recovery. The most likely answer is that every little bit of good news is magnified to the nth degree, whereas, any bad news is discarded. You can thank the media and Washington (Obama – on TV almost every other night) for this big rally (based all on speculation). For this reason, I think the rally will continue until we get to the 3rd or 4th quarter and earnings continue to be dismal, unemployment higher than expected, foreclosures still increasing, housie prices still dropping, banks continuing to lose money (unless the counting rules continue to change), not to mention the government throwing TRILLIONS of dollars at this mess, etc. So am I wrong in thinking that the market will continue to rise based on this specualtion (isn’t this current market acting like 1930?) for quite awhile longer? Please let me know your thinking?
I am an American who has lived in Panama for the last ten years. Unfortunately I have too much into real estate here in Panama so the only thing I can do is hold on to it for the time being. Fortunately I have no debt. As far as the market goes, I think the best thing is to buy the stocks of good solid companies. I like Cisco Systems and Burlington Northern Railroad. Of course they are up a bit off their lows. You have to remember that the government controls the printing press so they can print lots of money to bail us out of this mess. The end result will be lots of inflation so your dollars will be worth less. Here in Panama we use the US dollar as our currency so we will be affected by the policies of the US government. I wouldn’t worry about not getting your social security but I might be worried about social security buying a lot less.
Dear Martin,
I am an oldtimer, having lived through the Great Depression which began when I was ten years old. I have vivid recollections of placer mining with my father in Montana when an ounce of gold sold for $18.75. One hundred lbs. of potatos could be purchased from a grower for a dollar. Over the years, I’ve never adjusted well to inflation. One of my gripes is that today we refer to “the Banking Industry”, not the Banking Business. In my way of thinking, industries have capital equipment and make things or do things with it. Banks make contracts and sometimes break contracts and for the most part shuffle paper and publish dishonest financial statements. Nonetheless they wield tremendous power and can buy and sell politicians. So we have had to learn to live with deceit at the top. That, my friend, is the current state of affairs. Fundamentally, I believe you are right in anticipating that economically conditions will deteriorate substantially and for a long time before any uptrend.
Mr. Weiss:
I agree with your assessment. I think this is a bear market suckers rally. There are too many economic negatives as you professed that does not give great comfort.
I am sitting this one out.
IG
Hi Martin,
We have often been told that one of the signs of a continuing bear market is wild daily swings on the stock market. Ignoring any other sign, the current 3,4 and even 5% daily swings is just one sign that the bear market is far from over.
In late 2002, when the original correction that was later suppressed by Greenspan’s interest rate cuts was in its beginning phase, I read that one sign that the bear market is over will be when the gold price and the Dow Jones is at 1 to 1. The author’s prediction was a gold price of $3 500 and the Dow Jones at 3 500! We are still some way off.
Dr. Weiss,
We have been a subscriber to your service for many years now, and follow your reports daily, weekly, and monthly.
As you well know, there are many different investing and trading methods, so it is not uncommon to have vast differences in “opinion” when it comes to the key market turns and trends.
IMO, one of the most important traits when dealing with markets is not to be predispositioned to a “perma anything bias,” and we at the Price-Time Review could care less whether we, or our clients, make money going long or short…stocks and/or bonds.
Eventhough we at the Price-Time Review have an excellent track record for forecasting major U.S. stock indexes, trends and turns, based on Advance Pattern Analysis Methods, we have learned over the course of twenty plus years that nothing is cast in stone. And, only the successful or failed TEST of major support and resistance will forecast, to a high probability or at least a probability far grater than random chance, the current and, most likely, SUPPLY and DEMAND trend “in progress.”
While we use many different technical indicators and trading models to help in our analysis and forecast, the “language” we use to communicate to sophisticated traders and investors is the pattern, or “wave,” descriptions given by Elliott Wave Theory (EWT).
Although there are, undoubtedly, a large number of investors and/or traders who are quick to denounce EWT as anything from hogwash to snake oil, I can say with absolutely no reservations that “THEY ARE MOSTLY WRONG”!
I say “MOSTLY WRONG” because after twenty plus years of actual trading, and many years of using EWT, I can say with a very strong conviction that THERE IS NEVER ANY “SINGLE” WAVE PATTERN, as in “wave count,” that is an absolute certainty.
HOWEVER, there are “many times,” but not always,” only one or two HIGHLY PROBABLE patterns that are FAR MORE LIKLEY THAN MOST to be “in play.”
Since these “most probable” patterns nearly always, but not always, come down to one or two BEAR and one or two BULL patterns then it is easy to see why many investors and traders see this methods as having little value.
While never knowing the EXACT PATTERN in progress until it is CONFIRMED OR REFUTED to an absolutely certainty –many times only after a major turn– is frustrating at times, it is still valuable trading information to know what the MOST PROBABLE PATTERNS are, AND where each will be CONFIRMED OR REFUTED to at least a good to excellent degree of probability.
Anyway, after delivering this small overview of our methods I will now “speak” to you, and others on this blog, in the “language of” Elliott Wave Theory; eventhough, we use many other technical and fundamental methods to make our forecast…like Geometric Pattern Analysis, Gann Angles, Key Market Cycles, Fibonacci absolute and inter-wave retracements, Candle Patterns, and Dow Theory.
5/6/2009:
While there is the very real possibility that many U.S. and World stock indices are now diverging from the common, and huge, three wave down pattern stocks HAVE MADE from their 2007 highs, to a 11/2008 low in some cases and to a 3/2009 low in other cases, the MOST PROBABLE patterns in progress now –for MANY and more likely MOST STOCK MARKET INDICES worldwide– are EITHER:
1) A “small bounce” wave four (4), “upward,” bear rally, correction of “serious degree,” as in not major degree but not minor degree and with the with actual “degree” not being very important at this point in time.
2) A “big bounce” wave ((B)) or ((X)), “upward,” big bear rally, “correction” (and maybe even a “cyclical bull” leg up to something far less than a new all time high), of a “more serious degree” than any smaller wave (4) correction.
Needless to say, there is always the LESS PROBABLE likelihood that neither pattern is correct AND/OR the U.S. has already finished its big, secular bear market…be it from a 2000 or 2007 high to a 11/2008 or 3/2009 low.
HOWEVER, our CURRENT and LONGWAVE U.S. stock market ANALYSIS, from 1896 to date in DJIA, 1926 in SPX, and 1971 in NASDAQ says that the PROBABLY is MORE LIKLEY, to far more likely, that the BIG BEAR has not ended here in the U.S.A., and will NOT ENDED until sometime between 3/2010 and 10/2014…at the soonest!
Let me also say that while we are HIGHLY CERTAIN where the MAJOR PIVOTS are (lines, “angles,” and “time periods” of major support and resistance), that WILL, OR SHOULD, CONFIRM or REFUTE those patterns, our expectations, and any bull or bear market in progress scenario, we cannot say for sure, and neither can anyone else, whether the bulls or bears will win those major battles.
In closing, and while I don’t want to give away the whole farm here, I will say that the MOST PROBABLE PIVOTS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE a “small bounce” wave (4) top is DJIA 8,400 now OR DJIA 9,000-9,200 in August…with any MATERIAL BREAK ABOVE DJIA 9,200 supporting the “big bounce” pattern, and, most likely, a TEST of DJIA 9,700-10,700.
Sincerely,
BB
MY FATHER GAVE ME THE BEST ADVICE I EVER RECEIVED, WHICH WAS ” ALWAYS SPEND A LITTLE LESS THAN YOU EARNED”. I LIVED THROUGH THE DEPRESSION OF 29 PLUS. WITH THAT IN MIND, I ALWAYS ASSUME THAT WE COULD SPEND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE COMING MONTHS ON WHAT I CALL ——-THE WORST CASE SCENARIO——–AND INVEST ACCORDINGLY.
YOU FOLKS OVERALL COMMON SENSE APPROACH IS REALLY APPRECIATED. HUDDY
Martin
Why anyone in their right mind would keep any funds in U. S. dollars, us stocks, us bonds, us real estate with the criminals in washington and wall street manipulating every market with the use of the moneys which they voted themselves and by use of the media to micro manage the markets. How many times have we seen obama, Geitner, and all his cohorts appearing on television coming out with new pronouncements to move the markets. We have no idea what obama is going to come up with next. It could be new tax pronoucements or one hunded and one other items. Lets face it this group headed by obama cannot be trusted. They usually say one thing and do another. I would imagine that investors will give the u.s. at this time a wide berth.
Thank you
Doug
When I was in college many years ago, my economics teacher had been a college student during the depression. In both economics classes he taught depression economics. He repeated the important parts so many times that I remember most of them.
What is happening today is such a close parallel to what we were taught that it is scary. I have been following his teachings with my investments and have done well.
The most important thing he taught was to get out of debt.
What you say in your writings are also a close parallel.
Thanks for your help.
Martin
I enjoy your excitement….
This is a sucker’s market, drawing in new money from little investors, on the outside looking in, by the talking heads, for profit of the minipulators…. The demand for oil (fundmentals) had little to do with the price going from $40 – $150 and then back to the $40’s. The supply and demand is for the stock it’self, not the actual oil. I refuse to believe our consumption and supply went through a 4X ratio. All securities and stock are working this game to some degree. I see too many examples of the stock price changes contrary to what the fundamentals indicate should happen.
I may get back in some day…..
Duane
Hi Martin
I just recently purchased your book. I have been investing (?) in the market for several years, but only recently came across your web site. That and the book are both very informative and educational. I wish I had found out about both before I lost so much money last year. About 30% of my over all account.
I have removed all money from the market and am just sitting on the cash for now. When the market does bottom out I plan to be ready. I hope to hear from you and your panel of experts to help figure out when that will be.
Thank you so much for standing up for the little guy. People like you are what makes this country so great.
God Bless you.
well we had better all be a little careful at this juncture….dont doubt for one minute the powers of this govt to keep the party going…I totally agree with Martin`s thesis…but watch out shorting anything at this time….the Fed, Tres & Govt will go to any length to keep this party going…
Martin, I think that the people on Wall Street are merely committed to make money at any cost and at any derevation of reality. They responded to world events and financial trends until they just got sick and tired of it and during the last two to three months they just seem to have decided that the dow and other indexes will go up no matter what else is happening. I knew the late major shareholder of UPS and he said the market is manipulated by a small cabal of individuals, and that he knew two of them, and that he would never invest in any stock, or hold any except his huge holding in UPS, inherited. Makes you think.
Martin, Love the book and bought an extra for my sis. Thanks to you all for what you did to aid us all through this mess the Federal Reserve and others have created. Thank goodness I listened to you last year, moved my $$$ to sfa\\afe places you suggested and am making money now rather than loosing it all. I believe you continue to be right on. Question: What about the safety of credit unions, please rate those for us if possible. I keep a small amount in local credit union that is NCUAA backed, if we can believe in that like the FDIC…good luck?? Also, what about life insurance w/ Prudential? Safe or not? I’m thinking of pulling out the “additional paid up insurance” and putting it elsewhere. Please address those if an email or here. Thanks again. You’re a blessing to us all. Too bad the idiots on TV and the government don’t give us the honest truth. Sure makes the great book, The Creature From Jekyll Island, A Second Look at the Fed Reserve, by G. Edward Griffin a must read for everyone if they want the true history behind the jerks who started the Fed and their ultimate mission which isn’t pretty for this country, and the world. Your comment on the book?? It’s a fascinating and scarey read. Then you read Angels and Demons and although fiction, it mentions the worldwide bankers & others who want total control and you know what, you start to understand why we’re in the mess we are in. Power and money to a few is what they have always wanted. UGH.
Martin, I believe you have called it right. This is a bear market rally for sure. If these pundits think the market can just shrug all of the economic disasters happening, they must be crazy. There were nine bear market rallies in the great depression. What is this? Our second rally? Give me a break, the market is about to explode on the downside and I’ll be shorting all the way down to new lows, using some inverse ETF’s for leverage at times. By the way, 950 for the S&P will be about the top for the short term.
It looks like there is a concerted effort to cause all economies to collapse by bringing on the demise of the dollar, euro, yen and so on. This seems to work perfectly with the New World Order agenda.
The last 30 years I’ve always felt that my 401K was a way for others to get rich on my money. The last 10 years it seemed like you had to be nimble to stay ahead of the crooks, one delayed move lost you big chunks of your portfolio. Hedging didn’t even work.
I stopped investing. Disillusioned
This is the expected “C” wave up just prior to the next big leg down as we head into a depression. Don’t forget, the market rallied seven times on its way down from 1929 to its low in 1933. And each time the cries of “It’s over!” rang out. No, it ain’t over. We’ve just had a good warm up. This is going down to about 1500 on the DOW before it is over, and we have a ways to go. I’ve sold everything I have except for inverse ETFs and precious metals. Have you noticed that the market is going up while precious metals are ALSO trending up? I expect metals to keep going up and the market to start a big swing down very soon. Good luck to all.
I think the market is being manipulated. I feel it will go back, and some that thinks it is going back up, will lose again. I sold mine, and made some on it, and bought a beautiful piece of land not far from me.
US Govt is printing money 24/7, borrowing more money in trillion dollar increments, relies on foreign countries to support it, companies crashing domestically/internationally, unemployment rising, can’t fail banks/automakers in Chapter 11 or 7. Logic tells me the ones who make huge commissions omn Wall St will survive, When recession goes international, your no longer the power player. China, largest US creditor, wants abasaket world currency, now buying precioius metals, think aobu iit. China always plays long term.
Mike
i am waiting for the other shoe to drop because it will drop……the people on wall street that made all the poor judgements to create the mess are only smart enough to repeat their work.
i believe you are calling the correct prediction of events, i wish i could feel better about stocks than i do this year. i’m in cash and daily lottery tickets which i feel safer buying than stuff on wall street !!!!
i look to your writting for safe and profitable ideas.
Martin: I have developed huge respect in your wisdom and that of your group. I fear you are right on track. I am within 8 months of retireing. You new book is great and I’m learning a great deal. I am moving from my long time bank, not bad at b- to the only one close that is a-. I’m meeting with the man handling my office with both the 401k’s as well as my defered pension plan which are both largely mutual funds. Since I control all of the decisions of all three of the programs, I intend to get Treasury-only money market funds within at least my defered program asap and get every penny or at least most of it into them. Am I heading in the right direction?
Gerald l Blair
Thanks Martin & team. This Kiwi(NZ) sheep farmer also gets immense value from the newsletters.Here it is hard to get a handle on the real scene so you guys fill the gaps of truth. Commodities are my concern(food), meat prices unbelievably strong(lamb), while wool prices have collapsed, so what are we in for next season? Getting a feel for what is happening around the world is not easy as we have been quite insulated in this country. The horrors are emerging now with vengeance. The real puzzle is that sectors such as local Govt. (district councils ) are spending like crazy and increasing local govt taxes to pay for it e.g $200million for an enclosed rugby stadium( totally debt financed) its as if nothing is happening out there. I wish they read your reports to get a reality check on the world. We all want recovery but we need to hold tight to what we already have and farm our way through to better times. I’m with you.
Martin, it is uncanny how closely you and I agree. It is almost as though you were reading my mind. Due to my age and health problems I only do a limited amount of trading these days, but in all this craziness I still feel naked at the North Pole. Gold is manipulated so shamelessly, can we really trust it? (One example, the IMF threatening to sell off large chunks of gold which keeps a bit of a lid on its price). The dollar itself keeps its head above water because of its status as the world currency, but the bottom threatens to fall out from under its value because of its being printed out of thin air and China’s efforts to undercut its status as the world currency. Bonds are still too risky for my blood. Stocks, ETFs, and options are almost like rolling dice even for experienced traders. It isn’t fair for me to ask such a question, but truthfully, what is a retiree like me to do? I’m thinking about buying a horse and wagon and hauling junk for a safer income Ha! Or maybe a few of us old duffers could buy a boat and become sea pirates, but would the value of the ransom currency justify the risk? I lived through the Great Depression, and sometimes sellers demanded that they be paid in silver, but at least silver was worth something. I’m glad to have your Depression Survival book, but sometimes I still feel like a shell shocked mule and laugh to keep from crying. The best thing you can do for me is to continue keeping me advised about market directions and currency trends. As a result of the last eight years, I have become a strong Democrat and remind my Republican friends that if they don’t want Socialism, don’t do the things that push people in that direction. If they want a free Capitalist system, check their unreasoning greed and non-regulatory ideas at the door, and make sure that all boats rise with the rising tide. Man does not live by bread alone, No man is an island unto himself, and the love of money is the root of all evil. We need to get our priorities straight. I can’t be rich if nobody else has any money to spend when we get right down to facts. There’s no charge for the philosophy lesson. I borrowed it from the Bible, Adam Smith, You, and a few others.
Best regards,
Fred Gibson
I think this rally will ultimately tank also, but who has the crystal ball to tell us when. I saw the caststrophe of 2008 coming 5 years ago and gradually liquidated all my stock investments long before the crash. I fortunately shorted the market during 2007-08. I have no interest in any kind of investment now other than 3 month T-bills ( that don´t pay squat ) because anything can happen good or bad and if the bad happens, I´m too old to recoup any big losses. I was lucky to make money with the bear market. Notice I said LUCKY. I don´t want to try to be SMART like a PIG now and give it all back !!!! My next investment will be to gradually begin to buy 10 yr treasury bonds when they begin to yield 5%, and I will continue to buy them as the yield moves higher. I also understand that this may never happen in my lifetime. If so, I will continue to enjoy my foundation work and my fishing without any sleepless nights.
In my opinion no one really knows if we will have a prolonged recession, fall into a depression or begin another bull market. I do know this. The growth in the US economy for the past 10-20 years has been fuelled by Americans on all income levels living over their heads, accumulating massive amounts of debt, many times buying things they didn´t need with money they didn´t have. Credit limits on credit cards kept increasing and businesses made it too easy for people to spend spend spend. Autos, clothes, jewelry, yachts, trips, cruises, sporting events, home remodeling, gambling, stocks, etc. Everyone was playing ” rich & famous ” with borrowed money. In 2001 people went out of control with the housing bubble, transfering credit card debt into home equity loans, then maxing out the cards again, continuing the spending spree on anything and everything. This was all encouaged by businesses, banks, car manufacturers, society, etc. and it all was a recipe for committing suicide by the American consumer. That game is now OVER. We will have to go through a deleveraging process now that will take, in my humble opinion much longer than most people anticipate. ” Can I afford it ” and ” save some money for a rainy day ” are two phrases that have returned to the American vocabulary. The length of the deleveraging process will determine the length and severity of the recession. My concern is this. Where will the consumer spending needed to stimulate business growth and earnings come from to fuel the next bull market ? Surely not from credit card debt as credit limits keep getting cut each day or from home equity loans when so many consumers are either underwater on their mortgages or have no equity to borrow. Whoever can answer that question will make a lot of money over the next 5 years, either on the short side or the long side of the market. GOOD LUCK !!!!!
Martin: I value your advice and have followed it for some time. I get many e-mails from other investment newsletters but I value yours the most. Your book is the best available on the subject of the current financial crisis. Thank you for writing it. Be careful. Be safe!
Grace
Martin,
First, thank you for your advice and wisdom. You have guided my decisions and helped me avoid losses.
Now, have we missed this ralley of 2000 points in the Dow and are we to fall back to new lows below the 6500 Dow level, or did we bottom. I am in mostly cash but have a few shorts; etf’s, Sears and GE on the short side. What do you think? Thank you.
Bill Talerico
As a family man with 5 children, I am trying to protect my family and ranch through this crisis. I am very familiar with hedging cattle for I have done that in the past. Is there any indicators that would help me lock in at close to the top? Is there anything eles that would help me protect my family when we actually own cattle?
I trade currencies . . .is this a good to sell the dollar against the euro ??? thanks
Hello Martin havent made a lot of turnover in $ in australia as i have beeen following the weiss foundation advice and the ppl for asia and other are brilliant and transparent like to inform that i had a first hand discussion half hour with the treasurer of a major government owned precous metals beauracracy for half an hour sometime later on that!
The US$ position as a benchmark apparently the central european or euro is not accepted enough for forseeable future as it only serves those who want it to suit them.the US $ is universal exchange and easily accessed.
Chinese banking system using yuan or rembiem whatever it is called is not developed enough to be used all over the world the US currency and GM GE citibank AIG Goldman S IMF are still the only conduits for the financial flow of finance on the this planet and will be for the forseeable future.so in promoting their shares it is understandable that they are required for the arteries and veins oto move the blood of the system
Dear Martin
Thank you for all the free advice. I live in Ireland, and we have similar problems and uncertainty. We have a sum of money invested with medium risk . Our shares have fallen in value by 30% to 40%. being managed by a bank with international fund managers; the bank advise staying put, until there is a reasonable improvement. We could wait 5 years. What do you advise? I am 65 years old and retired and the money is for our old age and health care. Also my son aged 27 is anxious to buy a house or flat to live in himself; can you advise please, as there is much negative equity here, as houses were overvalued for many years, until the recent collapse in house building economy. It is widely accepted here that the next 12 months at least will be more difficult than present, which is already difficult with job losses and deflation,levies to raise extra tax.
Thanks
Brian
Market has many feet now, TPTB are pumping DJ as much as they can and also doing it with some foreign exotic markets which are too dangerous to fail : Mexico, Brazil ,etc .
This rally has no fundamentals , nothing !!
Hope for the best prepare with the worst , my choices :PM, oil, etc .
I think these are unprecedented times and hard to read. I believe that Martin is quite insightful and has our best interests at heart. It’s hard to translate that into smart investment moves, though, since the market can move a long distance in strange ways and violate common sense quite easily. I don’t feel qualifiied to give an opinion here, just to observe that things are largely unpredictable and quite dangerous. And we don’t have much of a road map for these times, since it’s never happened this way before and it’s world wide. I would not be surprised to find the market coursing higher this year or reversing and heading a lot lower (which seems the more logical outcome). Good luck to us all!
Hello martin and crew being in australia and watching the economy here we feel that nothing much will change jere australia is too far away and on the arse end of asia the raw material business continues as the population is to small her to be affected and the main economy urban is driven by building products or anythimng associated with a house or building inside or outside to give living or working practicality within 12 miles of the sydney CBD anything in housing will not cahnge in pricing except upwards to a lesser ditance from CBD of other australian state capitals the RUDD government in australia is a pro spending governement they dont have to but they are are up to 200 billion so far the so called stimulus it is mainly window dressing as it is mainly earmarked for beuracracy or goebvernmentr departments and it will be slushed to bank accounts and hedge funds so the australian government practically runs the and finances about 48% of stocks and profits are siphioned into other mysterious trails this is half of the financial problem so who realy cares it is media bovine dung feeding their own stocks Rupert Murdoch is the main media owner in australia and australia has the most concentrated media opwnership in the world relative to population so readingg between the lines is a prerquisiste of what is the guts of the veiled speech.
I am no economist, those who are seem to be in conflict with each other over how best to solve the problem. It seems though, that everyone has forgoten the basic problem? There is simply too much debt around! Debt that was accumulated over decades of borrowing and ingenious ways of extending and creating new credit lines. It was always going to have to be paid off eventually. Now is the day of reckoning. The only way we can see a forward recovery is when the debt is either paid. The government has a plan to repay the debt. They will say that they are going to pay it through the tax revenues generated by future tax payers. This is plainly a lie!
They will repay the debt by stealing the savings of hard working and thrifty citizens. They will do this by counterfeiting money and inflating the debt away – stripping the hard earned savings of all of those citizens who worked so hard to save and prepare for the future. If I were to set up a printing press at home I would (if caught) be sent to prison for a very long time! Apparently the government are allowed to do it!!
From the Corporate Leadrer’s convention in Davos to the CFR’s agenda to have the US rolled up into the NAU by 2010 I would say that all this worldwide recession/depression activity we’re seeing, particularly the weakening of America and worldwide finger pointing at us is leading up to a reality that none of us could ever imagine. I am at a loss for how managing careers and finances will look in the future . Who knows, maybe it won’t be much different. I haven’t read your book yet but does it include managing one’s life under a completely diffierent governmental structure possibly a less friendly one with drastically reduced freedoms and less privacy?
I am sensing the beginnings of an almost lawless “every man for himself” phase of this financial crisis. And, it seems to be running rampant evidenced by the power grabs and self interest-self enriching behavior of many politicians in Washington and the outsized payrolls and economic growth in government capitals all over the world.
Hi Martin, For the life of me, I cannot understand how this rally can be the start of a new bull while the selling pressure has not ended! Buying pressure is still absent and can be veiwed as distribution. Maybe its going to go a bit higher, but why??? Banks need more money, Chrysler is in forced bankruptcy, GM will suffer the same fate as the preferred stock holders don’t want to get burned on their investment. Unemployment is rising and John Williams SGS pegs Unemployment at 19%. Credit markets are still frozed and new home sales are not newly sold. How many young people thinking this is the time to buy, and get an eight thousand dollar credit, will be rejected for a loan? Obama wants to load up un debt spending as that is the magic Keynsian intervention bullet that will stimulate the economy and save us all. Where is the money going to come from, and tie that question in with the fact that China is making mighty loud and clear signals to the US that our currency, via our stimulous spending policy is openly being questioned! Even the IMF thinks we suck and is revising upward their debt fallout assessments for us. And all the bottom callers out there calling for an uptick in the second half??? What planet are these guys on?? Bonds are beginning to establish a rollover as yields move slowly upward. Can’t feel good about bonds even in the short term. Gold is creeping up and is the only safe haven I truely trust. That’s about it on my mind. thanks!
Hi Martin,
The market is being manipulated by the F.O.O. (Friends of Obama) to try and hide the terrible straits it is in. I’m afraid that with the headlong rush into socialism (nationaliziong the banks, nationalizing the car companies and nationalizing health insurance for starters) things will get a LOT worse before better. I’m also afraid that the seeds of wide social unrest are being sown by a totally irresponsable government.
I am of the era when quotes were posted by hand on a blackboard at the brokerage firm and before options were available,but when they finally did come into general use I jumped in and have been in ever since. I learned by trial and error—but I did learn.You called the downturn and I profited in ‘08. Your information is extensive and complete but it appears to me that your conclusions and advice are tied to the big depression and not giving enough weight to the Obama effect—immediate, constant, attacking of each problem as it arises and getting international cooperation for the most part. None of this was true in ‘32.
You have called for the Dow falling to 5000 and I have Putt positions accordingly, I’m sorry to say, but I’ve switched sides– at least for now and have come back somewhat .For the last 6 mos.forward What’s your immediate short term advice? Thankyou
Hello Martin,
Firstly thanks for your analyses, I appreciate your time. I was wondering if you’re familiar with Dr. Steve Sjuggerud’s DailyWealth letter by Stansberry Reasearch? In many cases in past your views broadly correlated with the views expressed by him, however in this instance his view seems to be diametrically opposed to yours. In a recent letter entitled “This is when the Big Money is Made in Stocks” he wrote: “Buy today, and try not to get caught up in the day-to-day gyrations. They’ll drive you nuts. If we could close our eyes, snap our fingers, and be transported to the summer of 2010, I think we’d end up thankful we bought stocks today.”
I’m curious as to whether you’re familiar with the views expressed and whether you have any comments about them?
HI Martin
Have recently started reading your articles. I am a small time investor in melbourne Australia who saw most of this coming about 2 years ago. I procrastinated (including being told by several that its still full steam ahead) for about a year when things started going down and lost about $100K. I since bit the bullet and sold up, house, sports car, share portfolio. I put the left over equity in cash, gold, gold stocks and few other mining and oil, gas stocks etc. I think I have made the right move but for 6-9 months I have seen the gold price surpressed by governments worrying about their currencies etc and various other factors. My fear is that I might have got it wrong and the bear market is in fact over and my growth strategy through gold weighted (and silver) will achieve nothing. My second problem is that even if gold starts to go up significantly, the USD will weaken and the AUD strengthen which offsets some of the gold profit. So, with limited info here, do you think I am on the right track? Or should I be back into a mixed portfolio of blue chip stocks, banks etc. ALso, I see the hit the real estate market has done in the US, but in Australia, it is so over priced its ridiculous but it just will not give up, it consistently hangs and will not move. I think Melbourne and Sydeny are both now in the TOP 10 for median income versus median house price. THat is – so overpriced its not funny.
Hello Martin,
I live pay-check to paycheck… maxed out all my credit cards…and borrowed against my
401K to add value to my home. I work for the government, so as for now I have a job.
Even if I had an extra cent where would I begin? And just for my comment the verbage “bail out” is the word of the week …what about this 7 year “War” what has it cost us besides our children’s lives..??? I blame this on the insiders who work the stock markets…. I believe the old croonies set this up to flop after this last administration. We all know Dicky boy had his hand in alot of pies this train was off the track when gas went up to almost 5 bucks a gallon!!! and before that…do we not pay on our credit cards and default on our loans and say the hell with it? or just struggle to never see the light at the end of the tunnel? I can’t even begin to think about retiring for 12 more years…sorry haven’t read your book…I am depressed as most Americans are… we work hard , I recycle and drive and economical car…I have neighbors who lost their jobs, their homes and cars….
Regards, and don’t have 2 nickles to rub together,
Stephanie in Georgia
PS my daughter graduated Bus. & Finance as far as $ she said stuff it in a mattress…lol
I am trying to keep informed by reading everything from your team. I want to know if I buy gold bullion will there ever be a point in it’s value that I will not be able to sell it? Can I trust there will be a market for it? Would an ETF be better? I’m confused.
Martin, I’m probably using up too much blog space, but you might be interesting in hearing what some of us are doing to bring a little sanity to today’s world. As a political activist, I not only support your efforts, but I have also organized a study and discussion group composed of both Democratic and Republican officials, activists, and other interested people to discuss such serious issues as foreign policy, world population, clean water, economics, political theories, problem countries such as Afghanistan, the Fair Tax, and many other things Americans should be thinking about and discussing. We decided we were tired of allowing talking heads on TV to tell us what we should think and decided to do some studying and think for ourselves. TV’s favorite sport is playing “Let’s you and him fight,” and as a result the country is polarized and paralized. Democrats and Republicans don’t have any trouble sitting down and talking to each other like ladies and gentlemen when they decide to stop dancing to the media’s tune. I wish the rest of the country would do what we are doing.
Martin,
I enjoy reading all your email. I am a mortgage broker, been for 23 years. I have always worked hard to help people buy homes they could afford. In the last 23 years I had a front row seat watching mortgage guidelines go from responsible lending to…. anything goes. Houses used as ATM’s only to be sold or refinanced at ridiculously high prices to pay off the consumer’s debt, only to repeat this pattern again and again.
My opinion is we still need to experience much more pain, (the economy shrinking) before we as a consumer and a country can become whole again. With real estate values as low as they are, and in my opinion still falling, we can no longer buy more than we earn and count on our homes to “bail us out”. It is a double edge sword on spending and demand; credit lines are tapped, equity lines are tapped or shut down and consumers are needing to pay down debt, which we all know is much needed and wished our government thought the same.
I believe the artificially inflated economy we created over the last 10 years or so still needs to shrink to match a more realistic demand and demand will be less for some time. This will create more job losses, more failed companies, unless of course they are “to big to fail”, less consumer demand, and more pain. I am with you on your beliefs, you know what they say no pain no gain! My vote is a bear rally.
I will be ordering your book this week. I am looking forward to reading it.
My retirement is in cash and has been since I pulled it out of the market when the DOW was at about 12,500 (after the November 2007 high), so I am feeling very fortunate. A little afraid to do much of anything with it right now. I know I need to look into metals wasn’t sure who to trust or where to go for that.
God Bless you for your sobbering newsletters.
Dr Weiss I cannot thank you enough for your exellent book on surviving the coming depression, even if it does not materialize, your book is a mine of information, i know Wall Streeters are amoral and only care about the bottom line but I had no idea just HOW dishonest these companies were, and are still promoting their bogus ideas. I do not trust anyone in the TV or print media to inform me, they all follow like sheep whatever this administration wants them to, Obama is a babe in the woods when it comes to finance, I do not believe we can spend our way out a recession/depression, it simply make financial sense. Alan Brown
Hi Martin:
Well, I’m really disappointed that you did not post this and just in case it was a technical error, I will do so again. How have you done with your $1M investment using the 11 Laws of Bear Market Success since it was introduced just when the market turned up. What have been your losses to date and have you changed your strategy since implementation based on market conditions?
Martin,
I have followed you for more years than I can remember. You have never missed a major forcast; however, your timing most always is far in front of the actual event, and if not careful, you can get hurt by premature actions. I am currently expecting your forcasts to materialize, but only after the market stops responding to every breeze of hot air it receives from Obama, Bernake, etc. I am awaiting your next FLASH ALART that the market has begun it’s long downward turn before I buy inverse funds. Keep up the good work.
Martin,
I have to believe that in light of all the bad news that continues to surface that this is but a bear market rally. Impatient Americans have heard so much bad news that they have seemingly tuned out the bad news, and discounted it all, and figuring that the worst is over, they’re jumping back in the water. For myself, I have been putting money into short-term treasuries through a TreasuryDirect account, and have invested in some inverse funds for when the markets head back down, and am holding some gold mining shares as a hedge in case inflation rears its ugly head. In short, I’m playing things more safely.
Richard
Martin I have read your survival manual quite some time ago. Have made many changes in my life style. Being retired, I have moved to a smaller house which will be paid for within 2 years. All my credit cards will be paid off this year and my vehicles are already paid off. I have invested in a small amount of silver coins and now I am buying some stocks, mainly overseas type. These I am watching very closely and using fixed stops. I hope to be complety debt free within 2 years and using mainly cash purchases. I do not see this economy restored to yesterdays levels any time soon. Especially since the closing of malls and etc. has not run their course. As you suggest we need to tighten our belts. Thank You for your insights! R. Allred age 73
Martin: I have followed your recommendations. I am now 40% invested in Invert ETFs. Have been now a couple months. Am waiting impatiently for the BIG MARKET DROP so as to get back to profits again with my Inverts. I’m still hanging on for the drop. I need some support!
Dick Hansen 133040.
I sold all of my stocks and I’m holding cash and frankly I don’t know what to do with it. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. I don’t believe the market will hold with so many people losing their income. I am new a all of this and I’m 65 and very afraid. Thanks B
Hello Martin: Question, is this an appropriate time to purchase “puts?”
I follow what you write (learn and appreciate it very much) and agree in mostly everything. I come from a foreign country in South America. Keeping the proportions (which are abismal) we have seen this. For a relatively powerfull economy (even this weaken one), the selfobtained or selfrealized prophecy is powerfully truth. The direction of the economy -in a very important aspect- comes from the individuals who make the market.
Now, being how the economy is (weak and all the major indicators worse than that) maybe a drastical correction is needed to be able to recover the trend. Something like what is named “inflation” or “hyperinflation” in the third world countries. By keep issuing money and debt (and better if they keep the trend) they will make the debt (because of being denominated in US dollars) be worth “nothing” (same as the Dollar will be). Then, everything is “erased” (meaning from its former value, all the debts, all the excesive union contracts, etc), and the society begins again: there will be new prices for cars, houses, services, etc, and the components of it (the price) will be the value of the elements used to produce it, without the old excesses (and maybe with new ones). When controlled (that hyperinflation) the economy will be in the path of growing again very powerfully, because of all the existing infraestructure (better than almost any in the world)
I believe we are still in a deflationary period of a long term Bear market. Most of my funds are in cash. Some is invested in “Prospect Generator” gold stocks…EGPLF.PK, KMKGF.PK ESMNF.PKand RMFRF.PK. Some funds are in Vanguard’s bond fund VFSTX. ProShares UltraShortQQQ has treated me well also as has Market Vectors Gold Miners. I sold my DXO Oil fund for a small profit and will wait for oil to really take off before I get back in. So long as the dollar remains “strong,” UUP or DXY can make you some bucks, but that scenario is getting a little “iffy.” One word sums up my present investing strategy…..DEFENSE.
Good wishes to all…
What is your thoughts on fixed and index annuities?
There seems to be a type of gathering of the little people, that is is citizens who are wary of what is going on with the significant economic shift. The odd thing is, it is happening in slow motion. But it is happening.
Market is alll about fear and greed. People who control media can take it either ways as they are controlled by Capitalists. When it comes to market rise or fall, fundamentals have very little role. PE ratio can be in 100s as long as someone is painting the rosy picture and giving hopes. We all live on hope and that is the most sought after solution. Eventually markets do catch up with reality but noone can say precisely when. It is a a game and one needs to have stomach and needs to love the up and down ride.
Got your book and we are planning on putting our money into short term t-bills with in the next few days . We pray that America will be guided by someone with intelligence and not greed.
Martin – Gold is the answer through at least the rest of 2009 and my money is where my mouth is. My question: when should I look to sell gold and buy it back at a lower price? What signs will become evident?
MARTIN,
YOU ARE A GOOD MAN! tHE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND POLITICIANS SHOULD TAKE HEED.
kEEP UP THE GOOD WORK! MAY GOD BLESS YOU.
DAVID LAPOINTE
I do not believe in this rally,but,the market is never wrong.If the market has a short term rally,I will play that rally,and if the market drops,I will play the drop.I put in a stop loss,and tighten that bet as the market continues to move in my direction.As for the economy,this economy will tank,this rally is phony,and the govt.which controls the financial sector,or should I say the ‘PPT’ is fueling this rally with taxpayer money.When the ppt can no longer keep this phony rally going,watchout below.The ‘CFR’ must be having a ball with what they created.Everything is going as planned.
Dr. Weiss
We opened an account in Canada with a substantial amount, basically to try to find a safer haven than the US dollar. Seems totally unreasonable for the world to respect a currency that is being debased like the dollar. We have been suspecting that there would be a collapse in the value of the dollar vs the Canadian dollar. It had gone past parity, as you know, but now is down to about .84 US. The CAD seems correlated to the price of oil to some extent and, of course, the economy of the US. What’s your opinion of since the Canadians do not appear to be dumping their money from helicopters. Don’t see how cash can be king with the paperhangers in Washington running wild.
C……….
I have put all my super funds to cash option only from June 2008. My super has grown on monthly basis. Compared to my collegues who have lost 20%. Another 100K of my personal saving about the same time I put them to term deposits.Interest rate offered was for last quarter 5.2%.
Hello Martin,The new book was packed with much needed information,
Thank You and your team for what you do,It is a great service for us who have saved a little money and are trying to hold on to it.We are in a Big Big mess here however I like you believe that if we learn from it,We are better off for it.Blessings to all of you. Wade
It is old news that the real interest rates are 4 or 5 %, (3.17 for 10 year treasuries plus .8 or 1.8 deflation) amoung the highest ever. P/E s are massively higher than ever before by several estimates. So the market is primed for one of the most blood curdeling crashes ever, by Wall Street’s own methods of valuation. However, 1938 was a similar year where rationality was sumarily rejected and stocks paid bulls massively. Is it impossible to estimate when reality would be valued again ? Or can we predict when Wall Street would be compelled to honor truth ?
I visited with a stranger yesterday. After our visit we were no longer strangers. His story,2years ago he had over 400K in his 401K today nothing. No prospects for work or play because his age of 83 has hampered his life.
I don’t believe this short term rally is anything but a short term bubble
Well, I believe the current wave of this bear market rally is topping. I expect a decline soon followed by another “C-wave” rally which could retrace 75% of the entire decline from 10/07. Don’t know how long this will last. Months? Who knows. However, following this possible zig-zag rally, I am dreading a cataclysmic decline. Yes, we can cover ourselves with short ETFs, gold, etc. (I personally am watching oil, as I believe the dollar is going to tank, and oil seems to be inversely connected to the dollar). BUT, I wonder what the quality of life here in America will be when things do indeed tank? It is not going to be pretty, if it goes as low as I believe. So more than covering oneself financially, I believe we must consider what will also keep us safe in the face of social turmoil and possible revolution. (Not to mention war, as countries will be looking for someone to blame.) There will be a lot of angry folks out there. Thank you for your advice, Martin. And I truly hope things don’t get as bad as I believe.
Hi Martin, Thanks for the newsletter, it is a great help to me. I don’t believe we’re near a recovery but, like other investors, if I see a bargain in the market I just might jump on it. By bargain I mean a decent company that has a low price, not one that is mismanaged and is about to go out of business.
Martin, You hit the nail right on the head again. thanks for your advise.
Think this is a suckers rally. The pro’s didn’t get “all” the money when it fell out of bed the last time so it’s “Let’s get some more again” time. My charts indicate the DJIA could have a rally up to the 9000/9500 area. Should it reach there I’ll be repurchasing some DXD and SDS. Right now I’m not smart enough to buy /sell anything cause I don’t think there will be enough profit either way to equal the risk.
Hi Martin,
I followed your advise and cashed all my stocks in November 2008 however I am left with half my original value. I am waiting for the market to hit the 52 week lows again and invest again. Right now I just want to stay in cash and wait.
Ken
Actually, I do have a question for you, if I may post one more time? What do you think about real estate now? If we do go into a hyper-inflationary environment, interest rates will go through the roof. So even if housing prices come down, the interest rates will jack the mortgage payments back up. So is it a wash? Would it be better to buy a home now while interest rates are still low? I’m not sure how to look at this. Thanks…
I read a lot of different financial websites and also radio, papers, etc etc and I believe that the DOW is in a Bear market rally that will end in a new low for the Dow that most cannot imagine…say, 4000? I have been warning friends and family but they have not taken the time to see the realities and they only hear the snippets on AP that support the lies of the federal government. I don’t know how long this rally will last but I think it will be tied somewhat to the devaluing of the dollar, inflation, and the sustained rise of gold prices. And a lot of what I have come to believe is from you Martin, and a few others, namely Peter Schiff and his friends. Thank you for this service to Americans. The US government has nothing on you!
The only reason money is flowing back into the market is because the government is supporting the economy and the banks by throwing trillions of dollars (bailouts and stimulus) after them. When the government money stops, this “irrational exuberant” rally will realize that it is false bottom (artificially supported by the government) and proceed downward, maybe testing the lows again. Even if I am wrong, the government will need to put the brakes on any substantial rally in order to curb the gigantic inflationary problem that is coming from printing money. I’d say “take your profits” and wait for a lower entry which is coming when reality sets in again.
Concerning the current rally. Have a look at Market Timing.com. A long time, dependable analyst. This current rally has many ‘unusual’ qualities. Caution is warranted.
As a small manufacturing company owner, who has been watching my industry gutted from coast to coast for over 8 years, I can tell you there is virtually no building, of anything, going on.
Over the weekend I went and visited some old friends, who happen to be small business owners (all types-accounting to mfg to computers) and their customers are either closed, bankrupted or on the verge.
They are all having to ax staff to keep up with bank demands–if they are lucky.
This recession isn’t even close to over. We have been systematically killing our best customers through off shoring, cheap importation of labor & goods, bad monetary policy and crooked banks (and their paid for politicians).
Unless these idiots can figure out how to sell things to the insolvent, there is no “recovery”. Good luck to us all.
I believe the current market rallies around the globe are nothing more than a “suckers rally” that the “big players” are selling into, leaving the unfortunate small time investors who have been drawn back into it, (on the advice of their mis-guided financial advisors and brokers), and who will ultimately be left holding worthless pieces of paper when stage 2 of the dowturn unleashes around the globe.
There is no credible substance to this rally, with on-going reports of high unemployment, continuing job losses, bankruptcies and global economic contraction, which only months ago was causing the markets to crash, yet for some unknown reason now, this same data is causing the markets to rally??
I certainly agree with the market analysis provided through Weiss Research, which opens your eyes to the things going on behind the scenes that the masses aren’t told about, and therefore don’t know how to protect themselves when the truth finally comes out and they get “smacked down” once again. You can see that things are going to get a lot worse in the near term until all the “rubbish” is thrown out, and a solid foundation is left to build the world’s economies on again.
Keep up the good work Martin, and thanks for all the timely advice. You guys are a beacon of light in a period of great darkness.
Martin,I took your advice to sell two years ago.Since then i have followed
what Safe Money Report and Real Wealth Report recomends.
Stay Well
Thankyou Lido
dear martin,
Many thanks for your timely advice. All of my funds are in a saving account and a CD in a local bank. I will appreacite much if you
could give me some questions to ask the banker so i can determine if my bank is safe.
Martin: Do you see a chance of 10 year or 30 year bonds in this market going to 11% and the 30 year bond going to 15% in the coming inflation climate as in the 80″s and if so what would be your time line theory. I have subscribed to your service for 3 years and I have benefited greatly. Please get back to me with your answer as it is very important to my family and I.
Martin,
Thanks for all the help you and your team has provided me in the past year.
I have read your book and I keep referring to it..excellent work! My portfolio is in line with you and your team’s ideas and I have weathered the storm so far. In fact I have been talking with my neighbors about the great financial opportunities which are just ahead.
Thanks much,
Pete
Martin: Do you see achance of the 10 year or year bonds in this market going to 11% and the year bond going to 15% in the coming inflation climate as in the 80″s and if so what would be your time line theory. I have subscribed to your service for 3 years and I have benefited greatly. Please get back to me with your answer as it is very important to my family and I.
Hi Martin -
Still reading your book and trying to absorb the information. Thanks for all you are doing. Keep the info coming.
Vern
Martin,
You have emphasized safety such as short-term T-Bills. I understand. My question is — how safe do you think our IRA’s are such as with Merrill Lynch? Even if Bank of America were to go Chapter 11, for example, they say our IRA’s are not comingled with their money. Is this true? Could our stock holdings get “lost” if they exceed the “insurance” the stock brokers claim applies? Thanks for any insights you can provide.
Bait and switch:
They, the banksters and the Gov are baiting the market with our tax dollars. When they get enough to bite, they will set the Hook and sell. The sideline money will come back in only to be stolen again. I’am only going to nibble, because if I get caught it won’t be much. Hold on to all your physical gold and silver. Do not put it in the bank! Bury it at least until the clouds clear. Take care all.
Optamistic, Pessamistic or Realistic. In todays world it is considered a sin not to be optamistic all the time no mater what the circumstance. There are times to be optomistic and there are times to be pessamistic and there are times (mostly all the time) to be realistic. Now is the time to be realistic and to ignore the advice and programs of the intelectuals who have never worked a day in their entire life for a paycheck but spent all their time in books never experincing the real day to day pressures of survival but always inventing new theories on how to turn the ecconomy around based on practices never tried before. They ignore the fact that a customer in the market for anything, be it a car or a house, or a boat, or whatever is still a customer and in order to make the sale has to be treated like a customer and not given the feeling that the so called salesman is the customer and that the salesman is more interested in making money for himself that finding out what the customer needs and wants and fulfilling that
need and want and not what the salesman needs and wants.
All money for anything comes from the customer.
I have never heard so many people including the investment gurus who usually get it right , calling the present market rally “the dead cat bounce”.
What is the usual outcome in the market when EVERYONE is convinced of the same thing?
Only one writer has said it is different this time , we are already in a “Stealth Bull Market” and EVERYONE who thinks we are not, is going to be wrong.
Martin,
I have studied the market for 43 years. If you desire feedback, then here is my input: this is a bear market rally but easily lending itself to profits if you stay nimble. Time to bail and short with ETF’s at about 10,000 on the DOW. Importantly, gold is in an unequivocal downtrend, will break $650 on the downside, and then finally become a fabulous buy [using the better gold miners stocks]. For those already into gold, sell now and buy back once gold plunges through $650. Lastly the India and Chinese markets are in strong rallies — money to made there via ETF’s.
Dear Martin
I’m pretty stupid when it comes to investing.I have been letting Edward Jones handle my investments.Needless to say im not very happy.I have lost about $125,000.00 in a little over a year and i was supposed to be invested in relativly safe things.I had $20,000.00 in there money market but got scared and gave it to the US Bank in CDs.Some 9 month and some 13 months.In 2001 i lost $45,000.00 It took me about 6 years to get that back.I’m 71 years old and won’t live long enough to get that back.I’m invested heavy in bonds.I really don’t know what to do.I did earn about $3,500.00 last month.
GARY R. MARTI
Namaste Martin,
There a few things i will just tell on points basis
1)The most honest govt in the world (usa)has gone bust and is legally allowing falsicification of accounts by allowing false disclousres of book of accounts by banks
2)If you are a trader just follow the Markets –bull or bear for the period you trade
no one knows where the market is headed really so just stay away or follow the experts
3) The whole downfall of the markets and world economy and the subsequent happenings have been preplanned a long time back from the time kissinger went to china and now reaching its final conclusion its a long long chain of events specifically targeted to china (read communism )and this blog is not the place to write—-(this is purely my theory and i am 100% sure of this)
4)The usa has 3 basic necessities in abudance namely food ,clothing , and homes so its got nothing to worry —————-the world does not have these luxuries
5)USA is the no 1 country in research and development with all the smart guys(Martin included) of the world there so i am not worried about the future in fact i am more optimistic
6)A lot of the present problems can be solved by simple legislation and change in policy so there is basically no structural damage has been done (like change in the constitution of usa )
7)What does the history of usa of more than 400 years say that its a great place to be in apart from all the happengings in washington
8)Show me a more free country more honest (relatively) hard working , industrious ,full of brillant people and a lot of people will be prepared to go there .
9)Apart from the markets for which i think there is yet time to invest ———Invest more time and money with the smart guys,family and good health and happines and keep working
10)By not investing now let us say you miss the bus —-But if you invest now and see you money go down the drain i assure you will have sleepless nights.So invest only with expert advice
11)I in india do not have the luxury of buying martins book (1us $=Rs 50) so please excuse –but from his writing i get the jist of what he wants to tell
Dr Weiss,
Larry Edelson wrote on 23rd April
“But I do expect the Dow to get as high as 10,000 by mid- to late-May.”
in a Money & Markets Email.
Different expectations out of the same camp mmm…
Regards,
Judy
I have lived through two great local economic crashes in Eugene, Or (1979) and Anchorage, Ak (1987). The bottom line is always JOBS, JOBS, JOBS. America is non competitive in the world market with labor rates in China at $5/day and the US averaging $100/day. THERE IS ONLY ONE ANSWER TO SOLVE THIS WORLD ECONOMIC REORDER AND THAT IS TO DEVALUE THE DOLLAR. The gigantic debts being dreated through our printing of money is the precursor to the rest of the world restating the value of commodities and then the ultimate dollar crash. It must happen over time so it will probably play out over 5 – 10 years. BUY HARD ASSETS AND CHINESE STOCKS, everything else is smoke and mirrors.
Finally, watch California as they are doomed economically and as they go to purse socialism or start printing their own money will give a good view of where the US economy will end up.
Bruce A. Chambers
All of the major banks and insurance companies may bad bets and now they are broke. We have a money shortages in this country and yet the banks and U.S. government think 2 or 3 interest rate is a fair return when in reality it should be 9%. The banks, the Insurance Company, and the Hedge Fund lost 150 Trillion dollars where they think a replacement will come from and they will have to pay dearlly.
Mortgage rate for house should be 20% down at 9% interest rate, All bonds rate should be 11% and Mun. bonds 6.5% rate. 10 years Treasury bill should be at 11%. Cash is KING…. $$$
I saw this coming five or more years ago. It was a bubble and those in power refused to
alow it to burst. However, all bubbles do eventually burst in time. When I see something in my amatuer observation, then I await to see if Martin confirms it as a professional, then I know that I am on the right track. Martin, like his Father before him has a very impressive track record.
Hello Dr. Weiss:
I own the largest consumer bankruptcy law firm in Nevada. I appear regularly as a legal consultant on NBC News, ABC News, Fox 5 News, and Vegas TV. I also have a radio show on a 50,000 watt station, KDWN AM 720. I appreciate your work and often refer to your Money and Markets Report to warn my own listeners about the true state of the economy.
Based on my occupation as a bankruptcy lawyer, I have a unique insight into what is going on with consumers in America. I meet with somewhere around 30 – 40 clients per day to discuss their financial problems. My firm files between 200 – 300 cases PER MONTH. Las Vegas has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country and unemployment tops 10.4%. Things are not getting anywhere near better. In fact, the pace of decline is escalating more rapidly.
A major part of what ails the banking industry is the subprime mortgage mess in major cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, and parts of California. In these hardest hit areas, home prices have plummeted and homes are upside down by $150,000 or more. Yet, the Obama housing plan provides no relief. Once the Senate killed the mortgage cramdown bill, Obama’s Housing Foreclosure Prevention Plan is nothing more than a revised Hope for Homeowners. These measures either cut interest rates or extend the plan by another ten years (giving the bank an extra ten years of compounded interest). They do not address the primary issue, which is that people are just not going to keep homes that are $150,000 upside down. They can dump the home, file bankruptcy, and then either buy or rent the same property down the street for half the monthly payment…and that is exactly what they are doing. Foreclosures are going to spike through the roof as more and more people hand the banks back the keys and just walk away.
Until they fix the foreclosure problem in the hardest hit areas, they cannot fix the banking industry. I find it reprehensible that our politicians and the talking heads on Wall Street are proclaiming the end to the recession and a recovery. They will sweep in many trusting Americans and then pull out the rug beneath them when the market tanks. Thankfully, there is a voice of reason warning otherwise.
Keep up the good work Dr. Weiss.
Sincerely,
Anthony J. DeLuca, Esq.
DeLuca & Associates
deluca-associates.com
deluca1@cox.net
p.s. Thanks for the Kitco.com reference.
I’ve just ordered your book and can’t wait to get it. In the meantime, I’m not convinced the stock market rally will continue long term. I’m very concerned that the Obama administration is spending WAY too much, and hurting businesses with higher taxes and additional bureaucratic hoops for business to jump through as well. And top it off with massive regulations to stop global warming (despite the fact that there’s no scientific proof that it’s even occurring, much less being caused by mankind’s activities) that will stifle growth and productivity. It seems likely that those misguided policies will translate into higher unemployment and skyrocketing inflation in the not-to-distant future. What do you think, and how can we survive the coming mess?
Hi Martin,
I have a feeling that this “dangerous trap” can last a little longer and maybe bring the DOW all the way to 9000 before re-tracing. It seems to me that the market is focusing only on the positives and hoping that the real economy will catch up sooner or later. Granted the positives may be marginal or even conjured up, but as long as everyone accepts them as truth, then it becomes legitimized and feeds to the frenzy of the market.
keep up the good work!
After the last 20 years of eliminating our industrial base , I do not see the necessary
production ability to get over the debt load that has been put on us by our leaders. Soon it will be time to start paying the debt. Then we might really see a crash.
Thank you for the help Bob
I can get a home equity line of credit and pay off my mortgage which is 5 3/4% now – and have 30K or so left over to pay off other things. The rate for my home equity line of credit would be 2.49% but of course it goes with the prime.
Should I take it ($250K) and pay off my current mortgage?
Martin,
I read your Ultimate Safe Money Guide about 4 years ago. Since then I’ve used the Modern Portfolio Theory and applied it to my 401k and 457k. It’s kept me out of trouble, BIG TIME. A new administrator took over my 401k on Aug. 4, 2007. Since then, I’ve had a return of a positive 43% as of yesterday, May 4, 2009 which is an annual return of approx. 22%. I’m trying to tell everyone that will listen about it. When I offered to present it to fellow employees, my company treatened to write me up for committing some federal rule/law.
As for rather this is a bull rally, I’m waiting for the 4 week moving average on my options to tell me as your book describes. I LOVE IT.
Is anyone teaching this process? If thinking about offering a course or seminar. Any thoughts?
I’ve anxious to get your new book.
Thanks for your services. Your Great!!!!!!!! Ken
Dr. Weiss,
I have great respect for your work. Yes, you missives are alarmist, there is an underlying book or service that is usually hawked and some of your writers contradict your view. You also proudly voted for Obama. Very strange. Nonetheless, you have been right on in your financial prophecies for the past 2 years when I first got your newsletter; I am an Weiss devotee but waivering in my steadfast loyalty.
I am getting really nervous because ALL my money has been in short term Treasuries 9600since the Dow was at as you recommended. By the way, I have been unemployed for a year. Talk of green shoots from Obama and the upbeat Bernanke and the skyrocketing Dow is putting me on edge. I am following your advice which runs counter to the standard advice from all other gurus who demand that we diversify and always be in stocks throughout one’s lifetime.
Hope you are right.
–Paul
just keep sending us the best information you can as in the past. you are the only reliable and realalastic source i can find
Dr. Weiss,
As I was told once, it’s true value isn’t what I think, it’s what the person buying it thinks.The same for the market. It isn’t what I think, it’s what those in charge think. As such, for people like me, it’s how do I prosper from what they think. Knowing truly what they are going to do is what will make money for me. I believe the changes must come from outside our system. There is too much corruption here. It must come from outside. China perhaps. Something must force this system to change and make those accountable for their actions. I don’t believe that will happen. Therefore, how do I play the system?
A must read is Money and Wealth in the new millenniium, by Norm Franz,
With dishonest weights and measures, this financial system is coming to fast crash and most of us are not ready or prepared.
I am suprised at a 32% stock advance in such a short period of time. I realize the US Treasury with the massive infusions of stimulus and now making us believe the economy will be improving by the end of this year is calming investors and in return they are investing again, but I am in cash because I am not emotionally stirred into believing the worse is over until the jobless numbers and other economic numbers start proving this. What stocks or ETF’s would you see as a good buying opportunity at this time?
Hello Martin,
thanks for caring for so many. So far I haven’t had a chance to read your book, but I am hoping to get a chance to soon. My question is: Which ETF stock should I be in and are Chinese stocks good to buy right now? Thanks.
I think this stock market rally is based on nothing but delusion! When the market crashes again, I think that people will be even MORE hesitant to invest on Wall Street again.
However, the talking heads are so in cahoots with the greedy brokers, I don’t think they have thought this one out that far!
Hi Martin and your team,
Could not wait, so I got your book as soon as I saw your interview. Fantastic reading, wisdom and a great History Lesson. Being an old (77) farm boy, LOGIC is what has kept me going in life. Your book and thought and words of wisdom are PURE LOGIC and I can relate. My problem is that I am not financially well off, like many of your readers. I have very little, but I wish to follow some of your advise and keep what I have. I got suckered into dividend paying stocks years back, that did not amount to much, but were told they had little RISK. I am trying your inverse ETFs to see if I can make up for some of my losses. It’s hard to tell your wife, we can not afford things that we would like and need. I wish you the very best, and I’m trying to use your info to better my familys life. God Bless you and your team. Floyd
Hi Martin,
Hope I don’t get confused with the other Pete here. Yesterday I started accumulating a short position in the nation’s top banks. I’m not much of a timer but I don’t see how the results of the so called “stress test” will be good. And in fact, while it may be positively greeted initially, upon further reflection I suspect market participants may begin to view it suspiciously, as being a whitewash of sorts. If a critical mass of folks begin to have such suspicions, this short position may pay off quite well.
I guess we won’t have long to wait now.
Thanks for this blog
Martin; I quote you all the time and you have saved me a great deal of money by your sound advice-sorry i didnt heed your siren call sooner.
The present stock surge cant be the real start of a new bull market-too many business failures and to much govermental spending and too large employment numbers.also too much gov ermental interference in our economy .
I am keeping my money safe until I feel the real bottom of this market has been reached.
keep up all your great work and sound advice.
sincerely Jerry bernhard
Hello Martin, Best wishes from Australia. I took note of what you were saying around April last year. Consequently I sold my share portfolio and paid off my housing mortgage. A big thank you. Your advice about USA seems to fit well in Australia as well.
I have no idea if this rally is temporary, or not. I recently made significant investments in AIG and FNM……..bought both around $0.50 a share. They have been up and down since my purchase. I also do not know if they will go lower than they already have, but I reasoned that they had gone low enough and thus, my investment in them. What do you guys and gals think?
The problem is the ‘wall of worry’ syndrome: the longer people think this rally is unsustainable, the longer it will go on even though the fundamentals dictate that much deeper cleansing is necessary. Plus, despite the credit contraction, strong hands still control huge amounts of sideline money seeking a return. Central governments continue to push the idea that the current economic problems are born of a crisis of confidence, thus providing the justification for the placing of artificial floors under the stock market, the banks and numerous other enterprises ‘while the masses come back to their senses’. Most of us in the west have had it so easy for so many years that we’re only too ready to believe these falsehoods. Until the corruption of the rule makers is addressed and their collusion with the bankers is broken, there will be no long term solution to the structural imbalances in the US economy. Do the American people have the heart for this kind of battle?
i dont bleave our government any more ,i bleave the worest is still to come
more gold thank you vince
I read your newsletter/e-mail every time you send me, thanks for your kind attention.
With the current situation in U.S., what is the impact for the stock market in Indonesia for full year’09 and 2010? should I start to pick metal/energy stock in Indonesia from know or wait another crash?
I think this is a dead cat bounce similiar to what happened in 1929-1932 charts.
Most of the average American investors are not involved in this fake rally. We have been burned so bad, and our trust in the financial system has been broken. The volume in this rally is not very strong, because we are not participating or trading stocks. Unemployment will continue to rise and Foreclosures will not diminish for some time to come. The adjustable rate mortgages are not suppose to peak until next year. If someone bout a home three or so years ago, and only put down 5% -7% down, and their home value has dropped by 25% or more, how in the hell are they going to refinance? Many homes in California have dropped 40% in value. No Bank will touch those loans.
It is a vicious cycle that feeds on its’ self, and I don’t think the goverment can stop the eventual outcome. They can just stall it for a year or so. The Banks are more upside down than the American homeowners because of they traded Trillions of Dollars of derivatives. They will never be able to recoup all of their losses, and the government’s
stress test is a joke. How about the trillions of dollars that went out the Fed Discount Window that was never voted on by the Congress? It is the biggest Ponzi scheme in human history. Hank “Goldman Sachs”, Paulson pulled off the biggest con ever.
Hi Martin,
I love your site. I think that we’re only headed for worse times…. REAL worse times.
Please keep up the good advice.
Tina
Where do I put several hundred thousand for safety. Had the money in T-bills, pulled
it out when they were printing all this money for the bailout. Now in a credit union
and a bank which is not on the A or B list. I know little about investing. My husband
did all the financing. I am now learning from you. Need a anwer. Cannot wait for
your further issues. Everything is happening too fast. Read everything that you had
on the internet the past few days. Am I back to T-bills? Do not want the money out
more then a year. Thank you.
The down turn which we saw from jan-08 to Feb-09 discounted the worst ” Second Great Depression” which never came and the rally which we are seeing now is discounting recovery in Q4-09 ehich again willnever come so fast. As soon as the people recognise this that the recovery is not near, the markets will have a final fall before marching ahead. this will be the best time for investment. So we should prepare ourself for this opportunity.
Hi Martin, I appreciate your concern for investors by providing a thorough analysis of financial house of cards. I believe that in the immediate future deflationary forces will overwhelm inflationary forces because of the credit-based boom that created this financial crisis. All assets will suffer and cash will be king. Unbelievable that the financial wizards have bankrupted our once great nation. We are now no different from the banana republics that we used to laugh at. Thanks for your analyses. -RF
Dr., Sir, Martin.
I’ve read you since ‘02 or ‘03; started beleiving in ‘05; by the end of ‘06, I was doing
all I could do in 401-K TO MAKE A LITTLE, BUT START PRESERVING. In ‘07 I sold
my last moneymaker, a REIT….. and then I watched as it kept on keeping on right into
‘08. By mid- February I was as safe as I could be, in the 401-k and was diagnosed w/
esoghageal cancer. I was out as LARGE as I could be, but had a bad taste in my mouth
for all the funds I let sitting on the table while I took care of business; then I had to
seriously take care of business. In a way, you helped me alot by giving me the tools to
help myself and w/out another fret turn the big important stuff over to Him who handles it all. I recommend Jesus and His word even over yours, Martin. The BIBLE:
Basic Instruction Before Leaving Earth :) I am re-doing Pgs 99 & 100 right now in your
new best seller, trying to get my wife’s pearls into a collective account w/short-term
treasuries. I’m loving it, and at least one of the other two copies I sent is being devoured as I hunt-n-peck! Thanks, Dr Weiss……… Tom in Midlothian
Dear Martin
It seems that the psychology is differnt from the logic in Wallstreet and Europe,
it could be that this is part of the action that was discussed among the G20
in order to avert a real crisis in pension funds and governement financing.
Unfortunately the contrarian up to now was not very succesful.
My strategy is to stay in cash and play the dollar nd gold.
Hello Martin,
Thanks for including me.I am still reading your book,its very intresting and you” hit the nails right on the head!”I am encouraging every body to buy your book.Ithink you are correct about the market,volatility will be with us for a while,and its affecting currencies as well.Things are going to go real bad when the hedge funds go down.Another wave of real estate crashes is coming there’s going to be food shortages, may be not so much in the USA, BUT IN OTHER PLACES. Oil & gas prices are going to topple the
economy. Everything is going up,and people dont have jobs ,so where is the money coming from to cope with all the increases?I have begun to worry that I will be short on paying bills ,because the money wont stretch if prices keep going up . I will try to be careful. THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT,I KNOW YOU GENUINELY CARE ABOUT US.
Alvarene M
I am sitting on cash. The impact of the credit crunch/job losses has not had time to deliver its full impact to the US economy at Main Street. Ultimately, when there are no more “greater fools” – this bear market rally will flop. That should be soon because all the talking heads are now partying and several financial advisors are now proclaiming the bear market is over. One guy yesterday even informed us that “technically” we are now in a bull market. In the background, the flawed (according to M. Weiss) bank tests say 10 of the biggest US banks need to raise capital. I guess they’re not going to expand their loan portfolios any time soon. Keep up the good work Martin.
Hello Martin…
I do thank you for how personal you are ,most people running a newsletter do not talk to or answer questions from people.
I have listened to you for quite some time and believe its going to be the way you say. How can the Gov. print so much money and get away with it? I also believe the twin towers going down was a sign .Soon we would see the downturn of US dominance in the world. What I see Obama gov. doing now ,Hiring a bunch of dufuses , along with the liberal left will help destroy the remaining value in the U.S A. I am investing in Canadian gold, silver, and oil, and canadian bank stock. Also martin, I feel Wheat will skyrocket, I quote a bible verse… In those days it will cost a days wage for a loaf of bread. You could use that phrase many times in history , but I believe that time is here again. Martin … I would like to ask you ..what do you think will happen to Canadian real estate ? Do you think the failing economy, and us real estate will start to impact canadian real estate.??
Dear Martin,
Ever since the fall of Enron and Worldcom,I have no faith in the stock market.Orange County CA also reminded me to stay away from derivatives. I have seen the devastation of what appeared to be a prosperous real estate market in SW Florida and I am stunned that no one sounded an alarm when so many people were falling into
foreclosure. Now with the loss of jobs, families can’t feed their children and are homeless. The animals and pets are homeless.I bought the book and I hope it will help
us prepare for the gradual decline in the economy,learn to live on less,pay off your bills,
buy only what you need, take care of your health. God still gives us free air and sunshine and have hope in a better future for your life and your children’s. Nothing lasts forever.
Dear Martin,
The economic “situation” is not going anywhere to make me believe there will be an “awakening” of
this administration to anything positive. We are living under false security, and the longer this type of
manipulation continues, the more likely there will be no economy or even the past years of prosperity
in the future. What I wonder about, is exactly “who” in D.C. (or The United States of America, for that
matter, is ARROGANT? Also, I believe the Republican Party should forget about that name and begin
a real CONSERVATIVE party, and movement in the political realm. Big Business is evaporating, and
the banks being nationalized, don’t make anything look promising.
Thank you for letting me sound off, and to say it like it is (to me).
Patylonn
Hi Martin; I have my ira in the Wakulla bank here in tallahassee fl.
Do you have any idea as to whether I should move it? Or is it all right to leave it there?
Any information you can give me will be greatly appreciated! I am 79 years of age.
I know about the depression. As the now generation says, been there, done that.
W Hagar
I think the rally is quite real,because almost all stocks from the all sectors lost about 80-90% of their value.
I understand the economy is not performing this two last years still all the compagny didn’t lost 90% of their value, and people are still living,consuming,and the population
in Asia ,Africa and East Europe is more open to the level up to the world and are eager
for all goods. these contries need a lot of development,growth and progress and they will recover and overtake the spacing very quickly.
In my part I think the Exchange looks forward at least few months.
Of course it is only my perception and I could be probably wrong.
Martin,
So far Larry Edelson, one of your colleagues, has hit this rally right on in terms of its duration and breadth. It seems that your jump into major short positions may have been a little premature. I do not doubt that your ultimate predictions will come to pass. You have an impecable track record re: major market moves. But I have been taking advantage of the move upward to try and recover some of my losses. It has been good lately, doing leveraged pro-etfs. As I told you previously, your timing re: micro stock market moves seems to be a bit off. Will really ride the return of the bear downward using inverse, leveraged etfs, but will wait until the market starts to head downward again.
Scott
….Well truthfully,the weiss approach of screaming non stop that this crisis was emminent was strongly helpful in me dodging the huge decline in the market from about 14000 to 6500[or near.i am intact after a disaster.the problem is i took the sideline in a treasury money market,as was recommended,and ENTIRELY missed this recent rally.of course im still quite far ahead but it is painful missing this.i know now i should have held discipline and cost averaged in to some extent when the SP PE ratio was 10 and dow about 6500.looking back it seems foolish but thats what i did.of course now with PE at 16,im waiting for a corrective pull back to begin cost avg. back in.anyone got feed back please?good luck to u all!!!
It’s just another trap for the wall street big shots to take more of the little guys money.
oh btw,if i may add another word.Thank you Dr.Wiess,you arent the only one who helped spare me the decline but u were by far the most important voice in my decision to get out of the way.i sincerely thank u for your prudent, endless harping on what was to come[im the kind of guy who needs harping].Should we continue to remain, as i think you have suggested,out of equitys?
I know there are no crystal – balls but how soon do you see the real beginnings of this recession becoming a depression?Will it be preceded first by inflation or even hyperinflation,stagflation or deflation?Are any stocks worth holding such as gold,silver,or minning stocks.If market ultimately crashes will these fall as well?I have been doing what you advised:getting rid of credit debt,owe nothing but my home mortgage,have accumulated some gold and silver,but live on a modest retirement income that is all fromS.C. state pension and fed social sec.Will these incomes go away ?All your input is appreciated as I trust your opinion above all I have read!Thanks
Good day Martin,
I have forgotten how I came across your words of wisdom eighteen months ago, its been the most informative and enlightening financial experience for me after years of so called advice from financial salesmen. Ducking and diving like a flyweight boxer through the financial minefield that had been my pension and finances I managed to turn failure into a sound financial future, this is all thanks to your words of wisdom. I am sixty eight years old and not as sharp as I once was but my confidence has climbed greatly: I went to cash with my pension fund, sold my house and enjoyed high interest rates in Australia with my savings. I have now (fifteen months later) just agreed a great deal on a new home here in the U.K, I just need a home for my cash balance which is currently with a u.k building society with a AAA rating, should I stay or should I go?
Thanks for saving my financial life.
My best wishes to you and the team. Alex
What about the extreamly low interest rates will they not have a strong (upeward) impact on the stockmarkets?
Hi Martin,
I’m from the UK.
We have watched another bubble burst in the Private Equity market where businesses were ‘over priced’ at remarkable multiples with huge amounts of debt/leverage.
With the DOW and FTSE rising and corporate profitabilty falling, the PE’s on listed/quoted companies seem illogical.
Acquisition prices for private/unlisted businesses are falling.
I’m very cautious about stock markets, except for very special ‘one off’ situations.
Any views out there?
Truly honored to have You [and respect for Your efforts...]on My -mail, and do learn lot…One ting that does’t get in my head is that “no one is explaining”that “profits” of the “respected” financiers get’s dereased while the bankrupcies occure etc….Why? I canot efforte to finance so am not much koncerned…Thank Yuo for allowing me into the feedback.
Hi Martin and the Team,
Bear market rally or a sustainable long term rally?? What I am certain of is this ; The last 6 months has seen a gigantic battle between deflation and inflation, the free market hurtling towards deflation and the worldwide govt bailouts and monetary policy trying to counter-balance it with an inflationary approach. Despite all the govt attempts we are seeing deflation {it would have been much more severe without govt intervention}. What I am starting to question now is this ; Could all this stimulus be actually having an effect of initiating a recovery, thereby halting the deflationary cycle. Thats what govts are ultimately trying to do, inflate currencies and basically inflate away the debt and with new growth try to pay off these huge budget deficits. One thing is certain–=INFLATION IS coming, what Im not sure about is if deflation will rule the day BEFORE inflation hits. ie. Is there is another major crash coming in the stock market and real estate BEFORE we hit a true bottom, thereby paving the way for inflation and recovery in the longer term? Who wins? The govt or the free market?? Im putting my bets on the free market–this is the biggest sucker rally since the days of the early 1930’s.
I read your newsletter every time it comes and have learned so much from it. We just got a letter from our company about retirement payments. For now, they are refunding shortfalls from company profits but explained that they are under no mandate to continue payments and cited staying “competitive” as one reason for discontinuing these payments. They further stated that for now, they have no intention of doing so.
We are certainly in no position to risk anything and we’ve liquidated all holdings we did have. Taking your advice, it’s now all in a treasury money market fund. I expect high inflation in the future. Income is most welcome but interest bearing vehicles of quality are certainly not yielding much. I’ve been looking at dividend bearing stocks as an alternative but that’s very iffy too, to me. Due to my low threshold tolerance for risk, most investment doors seem closed and locked tight yet I know that I must step out now and take risks to at least try to build my small savings into a bigger pile to offset possible loss of this retirement income in the future. Not only that, but do something that we aren’t swallowed by inflation with the retirement income being fixed income should it continue. Much easier for me to decide on and do, I’ve cut every corner I can on expenses, food bill, energy bill, etc., cleared up all debts except for the home mortgage and cancelled all credit cards.
Thank you so much for your informative and very helpful newsletters and the team you have assembled. I would like a bit more information on low risk investing, realizing, of course, that profits are limited too.
Hi Martin,
Thank you for writing The ultimate depression guide. It gives a differrent perspective from what we hear on the media. It is clear and honest presention of the current situation and what might come in the future. I do take your warning and alerts seriously.
I have question on the move to safety in your “safe money report”. I have split my cash balance into two seperate bank and under the FDIC limit of $100,000. Is it safe?or should I move the cash into the “Treasury money market fund” listed in the report?
Appreciate,
Thank you in advance.
HI Martin,
What the broad market is experiencing is nothing more than a bear market rally.A “B” wave bounce on an A,B,C down move.
I am looking for a top at ~9,000, but if that breaks to the upside, then the .382 fib comes into play.Here is my chart and technical analysis of the Dow.
http://tinyurl.com/d84dg9
Hi Martin
As you can see from my site name, i’m experienced in the pension area, and in the
financial and technical investing strategies (Sorry if you can’t read Hebrew…).
So, i myself am not worried very much (if it is not the long trend, we’ll act the short & ultra-short direction…)
The real problems are the real economy. So for me it is very good just to continue
receiving your great and so value letters. Thank you for that.
Yours
Yoash Zigelman
Some of us are riding the present up-move (probably rally) and looking to jump off when it peaks. So, for us, the IMMEDIATE question is: When will it peak? This month? Next month? August? What are your thoughts on this timing?
Cheers,
John.
Dear Martin,
We totally agree with most of what you say. However, you are not going far enough!You need to call out “the emperor has no cloths!”: behind this crisis is none other than the City of London/IMF/World Bank/New World Order/Rockefeller/dark-side conspirators and they will not stop before they attempt to ruin the whole world and Earth itself. The time is ripe to see the bigger picture, (economics cannot be separated from other aspects of life,) diligently put together the jigsaw puzzle, and start pointing the finger!!!
Observe: since WW2 all those countries that received loans from the above group/banks had their economies ruined in the name of free trade…. Now ALL G20 countries have fallen, they have all borrowed billions of dollars from the IMF. This financial/economic crisis was created to further this group’s wicked aim for global supremacy. Capitalism has now failed. It is only a matter of time for the total collapse. There is no chance that the stock market will recover, money will be worthless… Only people who can produce their own food will have a good chance of survival…
The Swine-virus had been manufactured at the US Army Military Research Centre at Fort Detrich, Maryland, USA. Investigate: who is the manufacturer of Tamiflu? Who sits on its Board? You will be surprised!
Fortunately, there is order in the Universe, even if the conspirators do not accept it! Similarly to the manufactured bird flu, they missed the mark again this time but they will not give up easily…
Global warming is also their hoax, science does not back it up.
All this information is now widely circulated on the Internet….
Sorry for the length of the comment but we need to warn all who care to listen.
Cheers, Frank
I believe we are in a huge sucker rally that will end around 10,000 on the dow. My question
is; IS the new hi, new low market activity a reliable indicator as to market peaks ?
THANKS
Russ
I’ll “wait and see” for the time being and restrict new investments
to cash or cash-like investments. The “Wall Sreet Talking Heads” don’t
inspire confidence in me.
Hi Martin
Thanks for invite Note this bull market is created by Lehman Bross
look at their dealings in volume compared to other large traders
15 times more haha than the rest
Liars galore in Wall Street Take care and keep up the good work
Britain is a basket case and so is America. Britain, the former workshop of the world has no work. Our forefathers bequeathed to us a wonderfully diverse economy that produced, aircraft, ships , steel , cars, trucks, pins, calculators, motor bikes computers in which at one stage we lead the world. We had a huge merchant marine that filled the oceans. None of this is true today. All our cars are now produced by foreigners, we put all our ship yards on the dole, steel manufacture is on its last legs, we manufacture parts of aircraft like the Wings, engines and landing gear and our economy has for years been in deficit. Alongside this the government is increasing the civil services so that every producing man has another leach on his back. How long can all this go on for. The nation is bankrupt! We are in the same boat as America because you are following our route to financial oblivion. Look at GM and Chrysler!
This disaster gas been brought on by traitors who own huge yachts and live better than kings. Some how America couldn’t save its car Industry neither could the car industry produce cars that the world wanted. But this was made worse by the Americans allowing millions of cars in that stifled your own industries. This is clearly because big money interests lobbied your corrupt Congress and Senators to always keep the doors wide open to foreign imports. The predictable result collapse of industry.
The West has been unprofitable for decades because of these people. Then they pass on their debt to us to people through our corrupt politicians in the last act of treachery before they slam the door on us and walk away. In another book called the Great Reckoning written in the 1980’s this exact scenario was written for after the year 2000. You are right we are going down and these traitors are making sure by, undermining our school system by pumping in sex education, morals by endless pornography, and hard work by paying healthy people to sit on the dole doing nothing, enterprise by over taxation and endless laws, regulations designed to stop initiative , for instance Codex in the Chemical Industry that precludes the small man from benefiting from invention. He is forced to sell out his patents for nothing.
The size of the problem is huge. They talk about a recovery while men and women are loosing jobs, housing returning when salaries and taxes preclude people paying for the exorbitant prices for homes. Corruption is Rampant and joining the EU has loaded industry with nearly 200,000 new unreadable laws largely put in place by deep pockets lobbyists. Does the West have a chance in these circumstances. I don’t think so!
Hi Martin,
I know that thing are not that simple, and i do agree with you that we are in a bear rally or are we?
But i can see the economic data recntly have been improving, what does that say abt the economy.
Are the data make-up, like ppl say, or maybe they are half real..
Is this rally a trap, and a bear rally in a secular bear market. Please enlighten me. I always have great respect for your opinion. As you were right from long before this crises come to pass.
Thank and may you be well and happy.
cheongwee
I have read ur articles and agree with many of your points,but the systemic greed in the market place needs a giant sized enema. Truth in advertising,service levels,honesty,misselling,& begger thy neighbour have all been spawned by the markets and their greedy sicko manipulators. A purge of almost impossible proportins is the only way forward ,and that won’t happen i’m afraid. This is where we have come to. The brink….
Hello Dr. Weiss, Thank you for your insights. Yes, I have a question, first, we all acknowledge that we have an enormous national debt, and debts must be recognized and preparation made to repay them in an orderly fashion. Secondly, in order to make repayment, there must be some tangible medium of exchange, and since we no longer posess any substantive heavy industry nor capacity to manufacture quality goods to market, HOW CAN WE EXPECT TO PAY OUR NATIONAL DEBT ? (inflation?) hk
Please consider one thing, too:
I am living in Europe and I passed january and february in Brazil.
And I can tell you:
not the slightest sign of a crisis what so ever.
In Paris you see absolutely no shop closed. All luxury shops and all other shops are open and sell and sell and sell.
In the streets of Paris I have nevere seen so many top luxury cars like Porsche, Aston Martin, the new Bentley – one after the other sometimes, liturally – everybody buys, everybody drives his car.
All the restaurants, also the most expensive ones like the Espandon in the Ritz Hotel are full, more than full.
The same in Rio de Janeiro: never before I have seen the Porsche Cayenne in Rio: this year maybe 20 as well as all the other big 4×4.
The same in Italy, in Tuscany: no crisis at all. Everywhere constructing, everybody working..
And even more in Lugano Switzerland: all shopkeepers happy “we can really not complain” told me the wife of one of Switzerland’s most important watch-company-owner.
So: Where ever you look around you in Europe: no signs of crisis a t a l l !
The big companies making good results: Nestlé, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas etc.
You have to consider all that, too. The crisis is certainly american and there also certainly first of all a banking, speculating-people-crisis.
But people lived never since the creation of the world better, eat better, were better clothed, had more beautiful cars and more beautifull apartments and and and….
Go out and compare, compare with 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago.
I think really, that there are people who have an interest to create a psycological crisis, maybe their are the same people who stole all the money at Wall Street, which is leaking in the big banks.
Sometimes I have the impression that all that is one story, invented by a little bunch of clever guys, who play their movie now in full, day for day, always telling us that we are living a crisis like in the 1930…… What a colossal non-sense!
Thanks for your time, we all recognize the implausibile position our “conspicuous consumption” has created. Didn’t Doc. Holiday die from “consumption”? Wonder if it is contagious.
Equities are over-bought. And headed for a fall. But I think the larger-well managed hedge funds who have performed well no matter what–will find ways to have positive returns (Like Bridgewater, Paulson, etc.). We have at least 15% in Gold. And plan to ride this rally up a bit more and then get out of all equities before the next trough. I think Martin is right on the money in his assessment of where things are going. Thanks for his insights and evaluation. Michael
I RETIRE IN TWO WEEKS. MUTUAL FUNDS FOR RETIRMENT ARE DOWN ABOUT 40%. DO I SELL HALF AND BUY TB’S AND HOLD FOR A WHILE?
Have used your (Safe Money) guidance for many years. I usually regretted departing from your recommendations. I live only on SS and investments. Virtually 0 interest rates are hurting. Still I view our government as I view a family.. What family can prosper when Pop passes out IOUs and Mom is a spendthrift?? When such irresponsible actions must be reconciled, the kids can forget about college or a legacy. In 08, I felt that foriegn investments would decouple, so I lost some there. Wish you had warned us. Only depart from your recos with some $A and FS and 1 overseas Telcom stock. . Probably another losing year for me, but I can survive IF OUR COUNTRY DOES…
Hi Martin,
I enjoy your writing. I,m only a very small investor, but two years ago my wife and I visited frends in Toronto, CA and as I have always done, I secured Canadian money from my bank. I was shocked when I had to pay $106.41 American for each 100 dollars Canadian. Always before our dollar was more valuable.
I was so sure that “our” dollar was on its’ way to worthlessness, that I started buying Silver bullion and storing it at a facility in Canyon, TX.
So far the silver has not done much, but I’m convinced it will one day be worth more than my other investments that are based on american dollars
Good wishes to you and staf,
Walt
Hello Martin
It seems that most of your blog folk have got the picture. Personally my main concerns are the buzz words of “globalization” “monetary union” “common knowledge” “conventional wisdom” “accepted practice” that are bandied around by politicians and talking heads.
A mere 18 months ago GBP/USD was at the heady heights of 2.11 only to plunge back to a recent 1.40. Now Britain is definitely in the toilet after Maggie Thatcher privatized essential services for a pittance to the treasury and Gordon Brown compounded the distress by selling gold reserves at $240 but are many of the component countries of the Euro in much better shape? Before the euro came along there was the ECU which was a perfectly satisfactory “virtual” unit. Italy couldn’t manage their disparate economic regions with the Lira and greater Central Bank flexibility. A free trade treaty does not require a common currency. What the heck makes people believe that monetary union is a good thing? Is the UK government deliberatly allowing Sterling to edge closer to EUR parity so that a future referendum will mean nothing to the population of Britain and deliver a fait accompli?
All this going on in a welter of news events regarding scrashing property prices and financial failures acting as a wonderfull camouflage.
I would argue that the devolution of the Euro would be a good thing for trade, localise problem institutions, create more jobs and add tax revenues to exchequers.
The creation of more bloc currencies would be a disaster but it seems the GCC and others continue to pursue this hairbrained concept.
Untill a saner more rational world emerges I dont care which particular currency my investments are denominated in as all central banks are printing money like the best of counterfeiters. However, those investments will be in gold and strategic commodity companies. Eventually the worm will turn on property and there should be another massive explosion in nominal prices (not real value) as all the newly minted fiat stuff looks for a home. Nothing better than a nice fixed rate mortgage with inflation on a rip. Very good chance we will see UK style “stagflation” spreading out over US and western europe.
I think that the bank stocks as a whole are resembling dot.com stocks of yesteryear, i.e. “no earnings” and levitating prices. I do believe that there would be no earnings or will be no earnings when they write down the debt they have in the auto industry for some marginal equity interest in those companies. Today’s, pre-market up opening prices for the banks appear to be up-tick rule preparatory moves.
I hav eread about half the book, and I am beginning to make some moves of finances. I am not formally educated in finances, but have become a quick study of them since major signs of our economy coming undone. I will most likely lean towards remaining conservative and keeping as much as I can safe for the time being. We have just finished raising three children and we hoping to really start socking away finances etc. at this time, but it looks like that is going to take more planning an insight that we orignally had planned that it would. I work as a licensed mental health counselor and I can say that people are beginning to grow a bit more upset about what’s going on. I hear complaints very often. I have counted my daily blessings for years as I often work with those less fortunate then the majority, attempting to assist them. I will continue to count my blessings and make secure moves to insure that I remain able to assist others.
The utter abandonment by Washington of fiscal commonsense precludes a real rally of any reasonable length. I would gladly pay for one way tickets to Tibet for Pelosi and Paulson if they would promise to stay there.
This, too, shall pass—but it will be a while.
I have followed your writing for over twenty years, as has my father. You and I, Martin, have not always seen eye to eye. But recently we have, and I think that should be a clear warning to those people who think you are overly alarmist. I have great hope that when this administration gets some of these bailouts shaken off, they can restore our debt to a manageable size. That will help our nation enormously. But what will kill a recovery faster than lightning is the price of oil. It is creeping back up, and if that translates to higher prices at the pump, the U.S. will hit another terrible depression. Those two factors, national debt and unaffordable fuel will make our people suffer. Keep writing, I’ll keep reading and agreeing or disagreeing. Sometimes dialogue is the best.
This sounds just like my father’s and grandfather’s description of the Great Depression. We just haven’t started banking at the post office yet,nor have the banks been closed yet. Jim
Hi Martin:
Dow rally: it means the potential of economy recovery is strong. Invester still got money but looking for opportunity to reinvest.
From all the data I have seen I agree that the bear market is far from over.
I try to avoid borrowing money in any circumstances, but this wise precaution has escaped Western governments. No doubt the interest they have to pay back is considerable.
Dear friend Dr. Weiss,
To get right to the point, I suspect the administration “Chicago Boys” are pumping all of that free floating cash and “manipulating the market.” In other words they are pumping it up with investments when all historical logic tell us it (mkt.) should be going down. Furthermore, they are doing everything contrary to normal predictability to baffle the “Contrarian Investor” — I pray it isn’t so and if it is, it doesn’t work !
I am a retired investor, who owned his own product development Co. I have over 50 patents, twice won “best product development nationally” — One of our products is the “Smooth Top Range” your wife probably cooks on, (37 yrs. ago). Our fortae was our use of “Systems Analysis.”
The best of luck to you. You’re a man and a half.
Anthony Montalbano
I started investing in physical Silver Bullion since October last year (nice low price ~$9.00 USD per ounce). So far I’ve made ~47% within the first 3 months of this year. And it seems that Silver is starting to take off again as I write.
I’m not in dept and only have two very low priced (market manipulated) shares that are in relation to commodities (Gold mine and farming related).
Apart from Employment, my main concern is currency and what the G20 has been planing. Today I’m seeing posts about the NFA trying to push really bad rules that effect the FX markets, in regards to hedging and leverage.
I’m also a bit upset that the government and/or the media seem to be calling “Shadow Banking” an “Derivatives market”. As if Shadow Banking (CDO, CLO, CDS and Synthetic CDO’s) was available and used by anyone in the free market.
The problem started with the Federal Reserve Bank, not the free market.
I suspect that people will be placing big short positions on the DOW very soon. I expect big players pulling out of the markets to invest their money on the next best thing, GOLD and SILVER.
Silver and Gold is still going up. This could be the sign of real Inflation.
I own $250000.00 of GM bonds,(my retirement) Gm offerd a tender offer to convert to GM stock. I dont like it, I think its a scam, and we will end with nothing. What is your advice???? edward
these problems what America is facing (alas also now the whole world) is not the fault
from president Obama, it is the fault from the other presidents bevor…(Bush jr. Clinton,
Bush sr. and the crew from the FED). And by the way, I am no more a big fan from
stocks rather a very very big fan from commoditys like Gold , Silver, etc…;) ;)
do you understand ;)
Hi Martin,
Thanks for all the good advice, throughout, the past several years. This one follow it…and is not scrambling, to secure, the home and savings.
An early start was the best strategy!!
Thank you!!
Jim
My concern is that we are not getting the entire story. Six months ago, the sky was falling and only by a miracle would we be saved. We spent $500b on the banks and now they say they may not need all that money, but what has changed? Still more foreclosures, banks not lending, continued rising unemployment, lower earnings from companies, credit card problems from individuals that will lead to the credit card companies. So with all this, where is the value long term for stocks. It may be there, but I am worried that history is repeating itself and that with the now trillion dollars we commit to a budget at a time that we have no money, we will tax companies to defray the bills. In turn companies will work with less people and the cycle starts all over. We cannot continue to feed the federal pig. Swine flu is real and it will infect each of us tax by tax.
I want to thank you. I got out of most of my stocks last July and September and lost very little of my net worth. Your newsletter has been accurately predicting this fiasco for the last few years. Thank you.
how do you do, Martin,
(1) i like most your ‘1980 case study’ on ‘investor power in washington’
(2) i worry much about a could be ‘not ordinary’ inflation & the collapsing u.s.
dollar that could eat up my retirement savings – fyi, i am retiring next year at my age 62.
(3) i have about half of my cash (cash & ira/sep & ira/roth) with Interactive Broker
brokerage firm which i have been gradually selling u.s.$ against candian$, australian$ as well as swiss franc. i have bought into some chinese yuan & canadian$ from Everbank. and i’ve bought some gold coins, gold ingots years back.
but, i still have almost half of my cash & ira accounts with other brokerage firms like Fidelity which are all in u.s.$ denomaination accounts.
before you would answer any of my questions below, i totally affirm to you or your organization that i will not be quoting you or your organization under any circumstances. i only wish to hear some honest opinion from you or from your organization.
my question ??? to you is, please : (a) should I transafer all my u.s.$ cash/ira accounts into foreign currency denomination accounts ? (b) like i said i am in the process of converting u.s.$ into foreign currencies on a gradually basis – then should I convert 80% of my cash/ira accounts into foreign currencies ? or, what % should i keep my accounts in foreign currencies.
i know i could buy up stocks/ETFs like TBT, GLD, GDX, or even DXD & etc later on,
“in a sense”, to hedge my u.s.$ if i don’t want to transfer all of my accounts from one company to another into foreign currenices. but, are they having the same effects if i just do so ???
much obliged & regards,
wing-nin ….
I am a retired M.D. now enjoying considerable success as a professional jazz pianist. I had a broker who is now my former broker [for a number of reasons] Besides, I enjoy doing my own thing. Have been a Weiss fan for many years. Right now I`m on the sidelines, reading, thinking, watching and waiting.My impression is that there are some serious “downs” ahead before things start `bottoming out`
This rally is not real, why you may ask. Well, what else is left that we can manipulate and raise to fool, ” raise confidence” people? Not the real estate, no car loans, no savings, big job losses, oil prices going higher, etc….but, the stock marke can go higher and it did. This only creates false hope but creates a lot of money for big trading firms. Our way of life, spending and borrowiing, no savings, lack of education, is changing before our eyes. we need to accept this and evolve in order to survive. I do know what I just said but I think that is enough. I am going to get a cup of coffee and take my dog for a walk.
The market is being manipulated by the Fed and Treasury Dept.’s Plunge Protection Team – artificially propping up equity prices with understated earnings estimates causing bogus rallys. The market should have retested the lows but has not, being quickly supported by the Fed.
Been buying gold bars, maple leaf coins and even some silver. Its about 15% of my cash which is mostly in the bank at now 1.75% down from 3 just a couple of months ago. Sold out on EWC when it dropped and I waited for a rebound since I thought this was the end of the rally. But newspapers and etc. keep writing it up since I think this is a bear trap. Invest in China stocks, and Canadian via a copper, gold company and just waiting. Don’t trust our governement because they lack integrity. Thomas Jefferson said it all, a democracy only works if the citizens are Christians with self moral integrity. Otherwise, the society will be filled with rules to govern everything and to choke everything. We are being choked to death with regulations and tolerance of everything and mostly bad. America has a morality problem so my money is going overseas and I am thinking of even taking out loans on my house and other properties since they are all paid off. Will invest the loan money outside the country. Will still live here but my income will be coming from outside the country. We left a mess for our kids and grandkids. Good for Rapture and Tribulation, for its coming.
I bought 7 stocks in Jan’09. Am watching these, only doubled up on DDM.
Started 2008 50% cash, today: stocks=50% / bonds=18% / cash=32%
My view on the market:
we are in a secular bear market whick started in 2000 & w/last until about 2016. The maket will end approximately where it started. During this period ‘buyer beware’. Follow specific stocks/etf’s of sectors.
Write them down and watch them. Be comfortable if buying and have a stop loss and a ‘get out’ price.
Why?
A poker saying I use “50% of something is better than 100% of nothing”.
or use whatever % ‘you’ are comfortable with.
Some stocks to watch and back track to last October are:
aapl / fslr / isrg / cern all are up now after dipping & rising up to 3 times.
I am watching these (and any others I find) to be able to react when I believe it is the right time.
Also high paying etf’s = hts & nly backed the U.S. gov.
Thanks for reading.
W.K.Anderson
I agree with Martin’s assessment– this is a bear trap rally. The stuff will hit the fan when the Chapter 11 Chrysler and the GM 9 week manufacturing furloughs hit the economy (of course the stats won’t hit the ISM numbers until August). The impact of unemployment for the GM Chrysler is at least 35:1 for Tier 1s and associated jobs. I think that the impact of inflation in automotive pricing will begin before the end of the year. Here’s my logic: The “burn rate” of automobile consumption for replacement is about 9M per year– the inventory from the 15M annual logistics automotive build rate will largely be burned off in remaining inventory of desireable automobiles– the “dregs” will still show up on inventory that will look like excess capacity (just like the early 1980’s). The major difference between then and now was the lack of lean enterprise practices that encouraged humongous WIP back then. When the switch is flipped to turn on some more automotive build capacity, it will spike up quickly, forcing higher demand costs and pricing. When domestic US automotive manufacturing capacity cannot respond, then more imports will come into the US market from abroad (and be priced higher due to dollars with less value, due to the printing presses generating dollars with nothing behind them save the paper and ink). This is the formula for the 70″s “stagflation”, except this one will spike mpore quickly, due to instantaneous common communication all over the world that did not exist in the 70’s (lack of internet and comsats). The crucible question will be the response of the Fed to turn the dollars into “lira” or to put the interest rates back in the Volker vise.
My record is that I make good calls on market moves but always bail out way short of market tops. In March, 2 days prior to the bottom, I bought City (C) for $1.04, Bank Of America for $3.94, GE for $7.12, Ford for $1.86 and Dow Chemical for $7.20. I invested about $25K. After generally doubling on most listed stocks I sold them, expecting a retrace. Of course, prices have continued to climb, which really does not surprise me. Wall Street always overshoots into delusional levels, which is where I think we are as of now. I simply do not have the nerve to remain in the markets at such levels. Preserving capita (retired person).
So, I made good profits but, missed a bunch more. Such is life, beats loosing. I still think that the fundamentals do not justify the present stock price levels and there should be a substantial fall from these levels. I refuse to buy in now, even at the risk of missing more upside.
Thanks to your advice, last year in March I went to cash. I kept a moderate equities account, and following your predictions and advice suggesting inverse ETF’s, the account made over 25% profit. You are my hero.
Regarding inflation, there can be no more certain indicator than the recent Obama directive eliminating the cost-of-living increase in Social Security for the next 3 years. I think that will cost the average retired person in excess of $5000 a year in 2012 and beyond. So much for helping the little guy.
From an economic standpoint the stock market rally cannot be real; however, I never thought the stock market rally would continue to 8500 Dow Indiex points; many think that the rally will continue as long as the majority think that the economy is interpreting economic statistics so that they are seeing ” green shoots”, slowing of the economic decline,slowing in the rate of unemployment, and federal reserve and treasury programs to transfer bank losses to the tax payer.
What do you think would cause a decline in the stock market beyond the economic facts that we currently know and which you have already listed ?
i have read your book the ultimatedepression survival guide. last monday i bought a etf financial. But to no avail i have lost monies since most financila institution have good performance lately. Do you think i need to pull out the etf i bought?. Please advise.
Greetings, My concept : What has happened in the past surges in the stock market proves it to be almost a setup. Bring the market down. Buy low. Market goes up. Sell and take profits. Which brings the market down. This is apparently how the market is currently played. It is like a horrible game and those who lost money were taken. Those with money play the game. The money game is in my book a deliberate way to collapse the market. So it can be used at any time. What makes me think this way? I hear in the news that on such and such a day, it was a day for profit taking. And goodby market. It will not stop either. In my opinion it is the current mode to raid the moneytrap. Oh oh The cat is out of the bag! I agree with the comments above. There are more “downs” ahead. I predict that within three days the stock market drops. I just pulled the number out of the air. That is how unstable the market is. We all know there is not one ounce of security in the market. Any comment by commentators will send it crashing down. We wait and see. Three days.
Will we benefit from the loosening of credit??/
Walt has serious reading up above. He is on to something. As I was writing my comments above, I was thinking what is happening that I don’t know about. I’m thinking there has to something more. Of course, it is the bigger picture of global ecconomics. So it is like wagging the dog: keep attention on US ecomonic problems, while the bigger picture is the real issue. We are global as well as national.
In 1974 I built a small industrial park in Tampa, Fl. [cost psf. $6.75], 200,000 sq. ft. Today it would cost about $75.00 psf. The property has been 100 % leased for the past 15 yrs. I now have 50,000 sq.ft. vacant, a tennant looking for concessions. 2 tennants have cut back on # of hours for employees. I saw this coming about 7 yrs. ago & started accumulating cash. Problem is what to do with cash. I have no personal debt. I belive $ will start losing value in 2010. I am 69 yrs old & very conservative.
The bottom has not been reached yet. When commercial real estate, the hedge funds and other funds face reality, the result will be a plunge that may take the Dow below 2000. There will be tent cities, bread lines, widespread civil disturbance, soaring violent crime, many suicides and homeless people everywhere. Anyone with a home or other assets will need a firearm to protect their person and property from the marauding bands of desperate and hungry people.
I’m convinced this is another bear market sucker rally. The talking heads keep saying the bear market is over, but let’s talk about the fundamentals. Earnings reports are pointing to lower profits, very few firms are talking about improvements in their respective markets in the next six months, and no one is talking about the inevitable increase of interest rates, which will squeeze corporate profits in years to come.
Ron
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised at the dishonesty being feed to the public by our government representatives. We are being fed false figures in unemplyment. They talk about 8.5 when in fact it’s closer to 15 % when you consider the people who have given up seeking employment.
Where are all the new jobs that were to be created with the billions of dollars the goverment is spending? What about the subprime mortgages which will come due next year bring on more forclosures? Will our goverment bail them out too?
The rise in the market is being manipulated. As you have pointed out Martin the actual facts don’t produce the kind results we are seeing in the market. We are being feed lies in order to
placate the population and keep them from rebelling. It will be interesting to see how the media presents your information. I commend you for your great effort to save our country from the robber barons.
Until we have strong ethics in the White House and the Congress, we will have greed, corruption, and tryanny. We have all three in those we have entrusted our Country to and to watch and see them distroy it makes anger in a Nation of good hard working families and others. Nothing short of II Chronicle-7-14 will heal this Nation.
im retired us navy and civil service an S/S SO im ok in that sensebut what im worred about is the security of this country and our military and CIA AND FBI obama has tied there hands to protect this countryobama is nothen but a dictator and the congress and the senate are to stupid to see whats happening to this country by the time we get to 4yrs this country will be a 3rd world country
Peter, put your glasses on and forget what you are and who caused what. To let OBAMA off the hook tells me you need to get in Right Field. Sounds like you are still drinking his coolaid….
Thanks for all you have done! I hope they listen. We need to do the same thing to save the 1st and 2 nd amendments from relentless attacks!
Martin,
I am so thankful you exist. I totally agree with your assessment, we are headed for a crash before anything turns around… You are a source of information that I can trust…unlike the media. I am so loving the new Depression Survival Guide….I am sad for what will happen to this country, but hopefully people, like in DC, will listen to you!!!! All the best and keep up the amazing work!
Martin
I can’t understand how the banks stocks continue to go up regardless of the news. Please explain it to me. It makes not sense to me whatever.
I deeply appreciate your concerns and advice for us small time investors who are caught is this web of conflicting information. The bad news available convinced me that May 15 puts seemed in order, but this philosophy is failing. Now I ask, am I the big dummy or are stocks being purshed based on cock-sure ignorance. Additional news that will effect investments is that Obama has used an Executive Order to approve $20.3 million to bring 20-30 thousand Hamas from Gaza to the U.S. to live on welfare. Also, at least 30 terrorists from Gitmo will be released in the U.S. to also live on welfare. Its beginning to look like Obama is pro-Islam and is weakening the U.S. for an easy takeover by Islam. That, of course, means that our financial system becomes worthless.
Your efforts to inject some common sense into the economic disaster we find ourselves in is much appreciated. Do you find any sincere response to your presentations when speaking to legislators? My congressman has consistantly voted NO on these spending bills. My two senators apparently have taped down their YES button.
I unfortunately missed out on this market rally thinking it was impossible to go this far and last so long. As opposed to fundamentals the rally seems to be supported only by hope, government intervention and political cheerleading. Do you have an estimate as to the maximum fiat money the Treasury secretary can print and Fed chief can expand the Fed’s portfolio? Have you any estimate when foreign governments will cease to finance our debt? Do you see this rally imploding this month, quarter or whenever. Thanks for your insights.
Remember the W–not George, but the next downward leg before real rise.
Thank you Mr Weiss for representing me in Washington. I wish I could be there myself but I am the ordinary citizen who has to make a living. My thoughts and prayers are for you, with you and on you as you work for our country.
This is a trap, I think when the truth about the Debt is fully understood , The Market will crash. I am putting my money in Farm land. At least I will eat well.
Capt Tom Stone
Kingman, AZ
Quite simply, we are witnessing the implosion of the United States of America. The manifest arrogance of a Government out of control is written all over the wall. But don’t think they don’t know what they are doing…they do. It is just that what ‘they’ are doing is for a different purpose, a different end result to what you expect and are led to believe. America is like a most splendid castle, the brilliant magnificance of which blinds one’s reason, being that its’ foundation is but sand. I’m referring to the financial foundation…(read: US Federal Reserve, a private banking cartel of “ruthless” financiers – I base this “ruthless” accusation on the assasinations of various US Presidents who have dared to try to oust this institution, e.g JFK, Abraham Lincoln and others, which is niether US, nor Federal, nor a Reserve and is at the very root of US financial problems and is why they are out of control as there is nothing to control them) …now totally bankrupt.I quote ” A state with the ability to make its’ own money, is a grave and relentless threat to prosperity and freedom” L.H.ROCKWELL, JR-AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS….regarding the printing presses of the US Federal Reserve currently running at maximum velocity, the result of which can have only one result; World-Wide Cash Money Destruction. Hyper-inflation could be deemed to be the theft of the wealth of the individual, and a transfer of that wealth to the Government/Bankers.I quote “Governments can pretend to be effective in a host of ways….but one thing that Government cannot do, and very obviously cannot do, is stop prices that want to fall, from falling….” L.H. ROCKWELL, JR-AUSTRIAN ECONOMICSThis regarding the recent run-up of ALL ASSET CLASSES you can name on nearly every stock exchange for the past 7 + weeks, fundamentals out the window, every piece of bad news is “better than expected”, market rises again; a bank needs 34 billion dollars, “less then expected”, market rises. I believe there is a deception taking place the purpose of which is to stall for time so that the borrow and spend system may carry on unhindered. I believe that it may be possible that one of the purposes behind this is the creation of ‘Socialism’ in the United States which transfers huge amounts of power and control to the Government and removes it from the people, along with their money. This is contrary to American culture, roots and tradition and would seem to be not a desire of the people, but engineered by Government. The moto of our politicians is:”never let a crises go to waste”.
Carl
Without integrity there can be good. It is not the system
that is broken. It is peoples’ values. We are in a powerful Bear market
ralley that could turn at any time. I expect the next major townturn will
be devastating.
It’s hard to be a bear when the DOW is up $100 every day. The inverse ETFs have been brutal. I really don’t know what to think. The trend is suppose to be your friend. Sure hope Martin got this one right.
I have nothing to trap. Why work if it’s taken away anyway. If it was not taken away I might have something to spend. Oh well. Tired, nothing to show for the work, but bills.
Run me in to the ground. RED TAPE me till I can’t doing thing. Your asking me to do what? It’s all I can do to keep up with my trade & you think I should understand the TAX code’s. Now user fees on every thing. Pay as you go. Well can’t go. Nothing to with , nothing to go for. I hope you can keep the lights on, water running.
KISS: Keep It Sweet & Simple
Thanks Martin for posting our petitions. Your dedication is commendable. However, I think Congress is now owned by foreign interests who’s soul purpose is to use the Fed to drive us towards socialism through a desperate economy. Market rallies don’t matter much when the country is weak in production. We all need to read G. Edward Griffins book ,”The Creature From Jekyll Island” to learn what we can do about this. To learn how to stop living in the terror of urgency, please visit my page at http://www.UltimateMessage.com.
Congress and the President have spent Billions if not Trillions to prop up the bankers and wall street. If they had taken into consideration that there are three hundred and fifty million people in this Nation and had given each one a million dollars the people could have paid off their morgages, car loans, and credit cards and everyone would have been happy and the people would not be left holding the bag to pay back all those billions.
Initially after the economic meltdown, Every time Obama spoke, the stocks tumbled, Americans including myself took notice, I emailed my elected officials regarding the matter. Soon after the the dow started creeping up, Yes the numbers are manipulated and a trap under the order of the dictator Obama.
It is a good thing that I’m not a congress person,or I might be sitting in jail for my biased opinion on certain matters.What right do the DEMOS have to sell us out when they were elected to the offices they hold. When are people going to wake up to that fact.They seem to be in a state of limbo with the false carisma of the president.Enough said as I could get carried away.
Is the PPT a conspiracy theory or can it be the cause of the jump in the Dow?
Do you recommend purchasing gold to protect against inflation and/or the devaluation of the dollar? What is the best way to purchase gold?
The government doesn’t want to “bail out” anything. They just want to keep making the hole deeper so they have more control. Look what they did with the Chrysler “bankruptcy”. This should have been handled by the courts, not this corrupt administration, but, then, they probably have the courts under their thumbs, too. Obama learned his ACORN tactics well. Now he’s using them to gain control over every element of our economy. Who needs a National Day of Prayer? — Not Obama! But, the country sure does. We better ALL be on our knees tomorrow. If we don’t soon get back to our foundations it will be too late.
Thanks Martin for representing the petitions in Washington, hopefully CNN or other TV stations will give this event some public recognition. We can not continue bailing out banks and major companies and spending ourselves into a huge deficit. Taxes can not pay this deficit, do you think we will have one day a money devaluation like in the US in 1930 or like in Germany in 1948?
My husband and I can do nothing but wait out the market. We have lost $100,000 but have gained back some. Most of our is retirement and IRA’s. The whole spending situation in Washington is a joke. It will not help Americans one bit. It was for the illegal immigrants and and countries is the east. He is not an American and he is not a Christian. Obama is not fooling the American Taxpayers, we just do not have the power to stop this nightmare. The Democrats are making a killing off of him and he is trying to make us a socialist country. I just can not believe that we have gotten to this point and I just pray that God will spare this Country. Praying is all we can do.
Martin,
Thank you for “the Concerns” you have expressed about our economy and the problem
with the market that “we” the common American Investors are faced with….I am 75 yrs
young…and like many other “life time investors” have seen my current worth drop by
over 50%.
My wife and I are on a “structured income” with M/S(now joined with Smith Barney)
..and to tell you the truth….we don’t know who to consult or where to seek .. help!
Daily we receive something from M/S ..telling us of “changes” in their corp. structure
and it just confuses “us ” more! Thanks for asking Richard/Jacqueline Hayes Mariposa,Ca.
I have followed you, Martin Weiss, for over a decade I think (your records can verify), and I have repeatedly said to friends that you have been/are “on the money” 99.9% of the time. If you have a shortfall, it is that sometimes you are early (as much as a couple years sometimes) … but your record of calling it and understanding it (as well as explaining it to us laymen) has been truly amazing! I know that now, with the government pouring tons of our taxpayers money to “frost and sugar coat” reality, it will be a longer delay for reality to take effect … although interestingly, as an avid Wall Street Journal reader,I am now beginning to see news stories about the collapse of small and intermediate banks, the rise of commercial property loan defaults, and the HUGE disparity between the IMF projections and Mr. Helicopter run the presses and print lots of phoney money Bernanke’s statements. I especially love the latter’s newest insights that all is well, the bottom has arrived and the “turn around has begun”. This is the same man who told us we weren’t in a recession until finally October or November of 08, then later had to admit we had been in one almost year already since December 07. That “Helicopter Bernanske” has any credentials left is amazing to me … and I call Mr. Obama the 21st Century Trojan Horse (he has lied about almost everything he said in his campaign and now shows his true ultra liberal left wing narrow mindedness) and is polarizing this country more than his predecessor ever did, and is putting our children in bondage to an almost insurmountable debt accompanied by Big Brother Socialism which is against our Founding Fathers … may Obama and Company be found out and turned out sooner than later!!
Began buying gold back in Jan. ‘06. A little bird twittered in my ear and my psychic intuition told me so….so I’ve been fortunate in that way, and done pretty well….Philosophically, I’ve been straddling the fence between contrarian and bull, meaning that I’ve got funds invested on both sides. Wherever the grass is greener, I say, I’ve got funds trying to grow. (Diversify! Diversify!)And I listen like a hawk to changes in the news…You have to be bold enuf to sell when the going gets bad, that’s what I’ve learned thru this period. (“Know when to hold, when to walk away and when to run.”) Hope I can do it again (did it earlier iin the year before things got seriously bad, then managed to buy back in in mid march, just before the prices began going up in this bear mkt bull rally. I wouldn’t recommend that, though, it took a real toll on my nerves…
I am sure that it is a bear market rally, but it climbs everyday, I’m not happy due to loss of a bear market rally. So I hate it goes up! But I try to be patient….and wait for a big chance.
Very important, SEC will regulate short selling and can you let us know how it will impact the market.
Thanks,
The crisis will be over when you can go to Joe’s Hardware and buy a box of bolts made in Pittsburg, and then cross Main Street to Ruby”s clothing and buy a wardrobe made is Des Moines.
Martin,
I am reading your book now. Even prior to reading your book I had started implementing one of your strategies. I have been cutting spending and building my cash reserves. Right now I am investing a little money in some of your recommendations but that is it. I am an employee of the State of North Carolina. We just received a pay cut (although a small one) and the potential for a large pay cut starting in July with the new fiscal year. I am concerned and trying to figure out how to reduce my budget commensurate with the pay cut I have received and the potential pay cut in the future. I wonder how this stock market is rallying with all this bad news continuing to build.
Hi Martin. Sorry, I lost my job. I’ve been working,altho i’m no kid. i remember you
from way back,when you were calling the insurance companies overrated,and incorrectly
rated, and you were always right. Unfortunately, i have not been able to collect
unemployment as they say I retired. My husband is still working at age 79. You need
2 salaries, plus 2 social security checks to stay afloat. I am job hunting,but it’s rough
out there, and will stay that way for some time. Wish you were wrong. I think that
now there will be a bad inflation,worse than it is now,before we get thru all this. Stay healthy and think positive,if you can. Fond regards/Helene
My husband and I have worked since we were in our early teens and have earned what modest assets that we own. Now my husband is told he will not be able to retire until age 66 and the government is throwing around their wise idea of “using” our investments for their “progressive agendas”. The company my husband works for does not have retirement and we have saved every penny we could for the past 38 years we have been married so we could retire and have no financial worries. Well, we see that dream going down the tube due to the entitlements of the people who have made it their career to sponge off us and the millions of other hard-working Americans thanks to the Obama agendas.
We have never been paid for the volunteer hours that we have given to our communitty and we
have freely made monetary donations to many causes such as food banks, education, habitat
for humanity, etc. The reason we have shared what we have with others is because we are appreciative of what God and this great country, The United States of America has provided for us. Thank you!
The size of the national debt and the interest that we, the taxpayers, have to pay is one of the big things wrong with the financial well being, and this administration is making it worse. This financial crisis could have been stopped years ago if the worthless politicians had done what the were hired to do by the taxpayers. But the lobbyist and party politics did not stop it. The greed and stupidity of the bankers, the automobile manufacturers should be left to swim by themselves. The present administration is using all of this as an excuse to put us further into socialism than we already are. In my opinion Washington DC is one of the most corrupt cities in the U. S. Chicago may be first.
No, this crisis has not disappeared and it will get much as time passes.
I think owning physical gold in your posession is the ultimate savior for the average family.
Return our government to fiscal responsibility and stop all the pork barrel spending.
Martin,
I have (hopefully not – Had) about $200,000 invested with a private broker. It is about half invested in stock. I want to take all of it out of that firm and do the things you recommend to do to save that money from disappearing. This person earns 1% a year on the total in the account. I’m going downhill fast. My dilemma is – I am timid to take my money out of that account. It feels like I am firing the broker during hard times. He depends on this job for his livlihood. I don’t need him to put my money into short term treasuries though. Can you help me to get tough?
Has the market really turned around? Short term is obviously YES. Long term is unknown. I think the only thing one can learn from history is while you can analyze trends to death, you still can’t predict the future.
Hi Martin – I have moved all my money now into 2 policies with an insurance co. hoping they will not be affected. Since I am 89 I have not needed to have to draw out any money on a monthly basis yet. Am still in my own home but have not been able to sell. My first want is to keep the money I have safe rather than increasing it. Putting it all in one company did not seem like a good idea to me but was the recommendation of my advisor. I know little about investing just have been lucky. Considering my years left to live, altho my health is good, is this a good decision?
Very sad what our government is doing and has been doing. Neither party represents the American people. They represent themselves which stems from a major moral decline. Government has never had to be productive however, they were many years ago because they cared about family, fellowman and America but now that they care about themselves only, they will do whatever it takes to continue promoting their positions and gaining money. This government economy will collapse when the consequences come to fruition. The only way out at this point that I see is to buy gold and silver and maybe change out of the American currency. Sad to see our freedoms and soverignty diminish while their is very little loyalty or love for God, family, fellowman or America!
We’re just watching for the end of Wave 2 – the end of the bear rally, and the start of Wave 3 (down).
Thanks Martin.
Bob Blackford, Stuart Florida
Thanks for being there for us average folks. We need leadership and a voice.
The banks and wall street should pay for their greed, not the people. If they are failing, then fail they must endure. Thanks again and Good Luck. I hope to clean house come 2010, if the America I know survives that long. Margaret
Seemed like a great solution, Roger. Then I did the math, comes to 350 trillion. But you are right in that personal debt is the root of the problem; and that is getting worse as personal income declines.
So, I believe that the fundamentals are extremely poor for a sustained bull market. That being said, there are no certainties in war and we are all in the biggest financial battle of our lives: riskier than the crashes of the early 80’s and 90’s but miracles do happen, often in the darkest times.
In my opinion then, no Bull short of a miracle, which I don’t discount but don’t count on either.
When this nonsense dow rally will stop and go for healthy correction or we will witness new crash. What a heck is going on with Wall St.,media. Are they on crack , especially KUDLOW and co. Thanks Martin.
How can I invest in T-bills ( 90 day)if I do not have $10,000? I am 74 yrs old.
Thank you for your efforts on the behalf of those of us who see our
Government heading in a destructive direction, and we are frustrated
because we are not being heard. Keep up the good work! God bless you!
What terrifies me about the current economic situation, is that it has been a most deliberately laid out plan with almost theatrical performance designed to drop the economy lowwwww enough and longgggg enough to create the perfect environment for opening the floodgates to socialism and then to communism.
Maybe I should give up and do what the powers that be do, with their handsout to collect yet more and more taxes ….maybe I should just hold my hand open at the entrance ramp to the interstate, and hold a sign up, “I need money..help me please.”
Now Govenor Patterson is telling us our property taxes will increase next year. He said people are leaving the State in droves. Where does that leave us, those who plan to stay here, the rest of our lives? I was fortunate to have a retired lawyer help me in 1974. He reccommended an Annuity which I have had now for 29yrs. 36 thousand went down the drain, but I got into a money market in the Annuity which has kept my investments at an even keel so far. It is not guarenteed by the FDIC. Where do I go now?
Real Estate has been holding its own so far, but I may live to 97 as my famiily has good genes. How will I manage? One Day At A Time, has worked for 75 years, so twenty two more, will be easier. I have the wisdom, the faith, and the tools to manage. We are growing our own food and sharing it with our neighbors. The neighbors are also plalnting different crops, that we haven’t room for. Recycling and cutting back. My hair looks whiter but it saves many dollars a year at the beauty parlor. No pets to feed.
Volunteering and Art are my hobbies. Our grocery bill will decrease by 26% by working on Wed. a week in a local food cooperative. There are ways, and we must share them with each other. Bye for now.
ave FAITH!
bear market rally dow could rebound go to 10000 point. we sure trade with trend. but overall economic situation martin observation will certainly be right. stop loss should be applied to trade inverse ETFs . i don’t believe in trading or investing any instructments without risk control (stop loss must be used anytime).
How can anyone think this is a perment thing when all that is going on. No way will it hold. The guy in Washington, is giving away America and everyone thinks it is fine because the market is going up. Look around people, your rights and freedom are going down the tubes and so will the market just as soon as he gets what he wants. So I will leave what I have left of my IRA in a money market until the sun begins to shine for more that a day.. and Washington quits drinking out of the same bottle. They have all been brain washed, because there pockets are being filled with our tax dollars….
Dear Dr. Weiss,
I’m just working my way thru your book and wish I had it a long time ago. I’ve done my shifting of moneys to the Treasury MM and started to get rid of the stocks. Have hit a snag in that they don’t seem to be willing to let me use the fund as a checking acct insisting that I keep my tax-exemt MM open and then receive my dividends there and to the Treasury from there. Also in my IRA, am only allowed to put 10000 per day in the Treasury MM. However, am working on it all. Sure liked the idea of being able to have one fund to take care of rent, groceries, utilities etc. but I guess I just don’t know how to do that at this time. Anyway, the book is wonderful, and I thank you very much. Til tomorrow!
PS. No , I think it is a breath on the downward slope
Martin: The actions of the Obama administration aided by the overwhelming majority of liberal senators and representatives has been played out before in the administration of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The republicans share a certain portion of the blame as well. You have been sounding the alarm for some time now, but politicians for the most part are only interested in keeping their powerful positions and will do whatever it takes to achieve that end.
First it is time for term limits. I believe that no term should be more than 6 years in length and that elections should be held every six years. For starters, that would save us all a great deal of money. All existing representatives in government should be relieved of their positions at the first six-year election cycle.
Second is the replacement of our current tax structure by the Fair Tax plan. If you don’t know the details of this wonderful concept of taxation, simply go to their web site http://www.fairtax.org.
There are several major points that make the Fair Tax Plan work.
1. It takes the power away from the elected representatives and gives it back to the people.
2. It eliminates the hidden tax that is embedded in the final sales price that we all pay for goods and services at the cash register. The total payment of corporate and matching social security taxes along with the huge compliance costs borne by American business is simply passed along to the consumer in a higher purchase price that amounts to 22% more than would otherwise be necessary.
3. The Fair Tax would eliminate corporate taxes which would have the effect of making America’s industries more competitive than many other countries (witness the effect of a simple 12% corporate tax rate in Ireland where business is booming). Instead of the federal government going into massive debt, the several trillion dollars sitting off shore protected from the onerous U.S. tax rates would be immediately repatriated to fund America’s financial institutions and businesses.
4. The Social Security and Medicare Ponzi scheme would be funded out of the proceeds of The Fair Tax (a 23% consumer tax) that is a much broader source of revenue paid by every consumer in America including purchases by current tax evaders, illegal immigrants, revenue from criminal activities, tourists from abroad to name just a few sources. American taxpayers would all be allowed certain tax incentives. First would be a prebate based on the poverty rate as published by our government. This would provide every citizen at the beginning of each month to have the money necessary to pay for the Fair Tax on the basic necessities of life. The second major break
is based on the fact that consumer goods are taxed only once on the original purchase. Used items like 2nd hand furniture, used autos, previously owned homes, etc. have no sales tax collected. When new items are purchased they will cost about 22% less (see item #2 above), so people will actually be paying about only a 1% tax more (23% sales tax less the removal of the hidden 22% embedded tax from the sale price).
5. The best part of the Fair Tax Plan would be accomplished by eliminating the 16th amendment to our constitution which gave the Federal government the power to tax income. No more I.R.S.,
no complicated taxes to compute, you would receive your entire salary with no taxes withheld. The Fair Tax eliminates – personal income taxes, social security and Medicare taxes, the
alternative minimum tax, taxes on interest, dividends, capital gains, corporate and business income taxes.
What we need is a nationwide push for such a change in our tax structure that all politicians will resist, but is the only answer to our serious financial dilemma. In your position of power your entire organization should be behind the Fair Tax movement. The more
American tax payers who get to understand this new method of raising revenue to operate our government the better chances of it becoming our new way to raise tax revenue. The Fair Tax Plan is designed to raise the same amount of revenue as all of the other phased out taxes. Then the next step is to start downsizing our government. We have too many bureaucracies that are corrupt, ineffective and hamper the vibrancy of our economy. They protect special interests and not the citizens of this country.
This is a first step toward creating real change in our economy and our daily lives. I hope you and all the readers of your blog will be enlightened by this idea. I also have simple but effective ideas of how to really get health care under control and made affordable for all Americans, but one step at a time.
Thank you for going to Washington DC, and working hard to attempt to stop these bailouts!
I am a woman who has invested in a few properties over the years, so I knew a little about real estate but the last two and a half years has been a real eye opener to our government and our financial system.
We need to do away with the Federal Reserve before we are no longer a country. It is hard to imagine what has become to our country in the last forty years, again thank you!
To Tommy John: We think Martin did get this one right. He’s just ahead of time with his picks, as he has been in the past. Robert Prector (The Wave Theory) and Martin Weiss are each one a one of a kind. They both have similar beliefs and talents. Martin gets you in early and it’s our bet he will get you out early when stocks are falling which means your sale will be covered or valid. Others who cash out at the bottom may not get paid but you will be rewarded.
While there seems to be no question that consumer confidence is improving, I feel it is based on misinformation, much of which coming from our Obama administration. With the money that will have to be printed to cover the terrible mistakes our present administration is in the middle of we are concerned about preserving our assets. We have about 25% in the market, 25% in Gold Bullion and are buying ground. What else should we consider?
Sucker’s rally!
Wahington needs to Step Up, Step Out and break away from trendy….be the World Icon once again. STOP the BAILOUTS. Replace the bailout programs with PAYOUTS to the TAXPAYERS and I don’t mean the small stimulus payments that are mere pacifiers and quite frankly insulting to all taxpayers. The CEOs, Gov’t officials, and the system as a whole are corrupt and “We the People” are left with the bills to pay that our gov’t creates. Any taxpayer could utilize $1M individually much better than our gov’t is handling financial sectors. Give ‘the people’ high payouts and ‘then’ our country will turn around it’s economy, unemployment, and prosper once again.
Why can our politicians not apply the secret of life…”Learn from your mistakes and not repeat them” ?? Now that is how you are successful. Yet, gov’t chooses to repeat history. We all have heard, read, know from some source the cycles our multi-faceted systems operate in continue to repeat in a statistical fashion. When Gov’t gives back to the taxpayers and stops the bailouts and the borrowing from foreign countries and halts further creation of deficits ….then America ‘will’ rise again. It is imperative we remain the World leader in all arenas. It’s so simple yet they choose blindness. We need more simpletons in charge. In God We Trust…yes we do! Our government…how can we? Trust is earned.
Our Children ‘are’ the future…yet our gov’t is writing a bleak future for their nation.
What happens when the countries we have borrowed from call in our loans due and payable in full…where will we be and where do we go from there?? Scary thought….eh? On a final note, regarding removing God from many parts of American ways. Our country and all mankind exists because of God. I say we remove Andrew Jackson from all currencies to make right with our Native Americans and with God the horrendous attrocities Jackson committed against them. It is an insult the Native Americans must use currency that Jackson is plastered on. To set one last thing straight…claim to be an American only if you are truly Native American bloodline, if not, then call yourself an American Citizen. That is accurate and undeniable.
Thank you and God Bless you Martin for all your time, efforts and compassions in helping our nation.
Thanks Martin for all your hard work and dedication. I have been a subscriber for about a year and it is amazing how accurately you have predicted the mortgage crisis and the banking crisis. I have no doubt you are right about the commercial real estate crisis. I am hanging on to my inverse ETF’s as I believe the market will decline and test the lows.
The stock market is a trip. I belive it is being manipulated. with all the bailouts, spending, job losses, home values droping, ect.ect.. The back room deals where we dont know whats being hidden. When the stock market crashes,, the U.S. will be broke, and those that loaned U.S. money will forclose.
I believe that this bear rally is sector rotation of current monies in the market and short covering from institutions. The market is hanging on a thread and rallying on any type of news. Sure the market looks 6 month in advance and why not, current economic conditions are at there poorest, so it makes sense that the future earnings have nowhere to go but up. This market is very oversold and will retrace at some point. Hopefully very soon.
Get rid of congress & all the politicians in DC form the top down and make those in Congress a term job not a lifetime job. What a disaster they are making of our Beloved COUNTRY>
Hi Martin: I think you are a true American and thank you for being such a patriot. I think we have to get rid of big government before the whole country is ruined. I am tired of all these lobbiests and their cronnies in government giving this country away and distroying our way of life. If our forefathers knew how they are distroying America they would turn over in their graves. This country use to be founded on Christian principles and now they are tearing our constitution apart piece by piece. People are demanding to be citizens when they do not have a right to be here they are illegal. And they are getting millions of dollars in services. Our hospitals have to close because they go to emergency rooms and never pay. One third of the criminals in prison are illegal. I think this is a major thing that has to be cleaned up. They are bleading the American taxpayer. How many social service programs are they going to get passed if they become citizens. The way I look at it is the whole country is broke and the government is not telling the truth. They are falsifying all figures. The actual unemployment rate is way over 8.5 percent now if the truth is known. Thanks for trying to save America before it is too late. It may already be too late.
Remember that President Obama still wants to “redistribute the wealth.”
Right now, GM stock holders are taking major hits, being offered twenty cents on the dollar as GM goes through this government-controlled-reorganization. Of course, retired employees will not be losing their health care benefits! Oh no!
My investment strategy right now is going no further than savings accounts at my credit union – and my mattress is starting to look pretty good, too. Why put money in a savings account where it will earn interest that could push me into a higher tax bracket? I don’t want to be one of those “evil rich people that profit at the expense of the poor!”
Because of Obama’s “stimulus” plan, I’m getting about $40 a paycheck more than I did before. I’m planning to hold onto every penny of that $40, because I understand that I will have to pay it all back next year, because the tax rates have NOT changed.
Does “redistribute the wealth” sound anything like “from each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his need”?
Remember that Barack Obama is still fundamentally a communist – that’s what “redistribute the wealth” is all about.
Martin,
If the commercial real estate market is imploding why doesn’t SRS confirm that siutation?
If the commercial real estate mrket is imploding why dosen’t SRS confirm that situation.
It seems like government manipulation of the market is hellbent on driving the inverse ETF’s into oblivion since their losses are significantly greater than any gains recouped on down-market days. Is the upbeat reports on the manufacturing and jobs market for real?? Why aren’t you addressing this in your blogs?
Could all this be part of the giant conspiracy to make the dollar collapse so were forced into a one world monetary system…… There was an awful lot of money spent to put Obama in office, who is the real puppeteer behind him telling him what to do? ( big money? ) Do the democrats really believe that this is going to help them sqaush the republican party so they can become a one party system…….I would like to be a fly on the wall in the back rooms where these deals are being cooked up….. We need to stand up and DEMAND a major overhaul. Thanks to Martin were off to a good start……… (Martin D Weiss PH.D for President!)……..
Bull Market? Ha! Its a house of cards…..a pile of jackstraws. The immutable fact is we are headed for hyperinflation on a level that will make Jimmy Carter blush. In the Carter days I worked for a major corporation that was able to give annual raises exceeding the inflation rate.
I don’t think there are many mid level jobs like that anymore.
I wouldnt invest in anything but gold……as long as Obama’s thugs dont take that away as well.
Hard choice…. here below my investments:
cash c/c 25%
Phisical gold 3%
art items 2%
stockmarket protected 100% capital 25%
certificate 100% protected (if the bank survive) 25%
funds in many markets not protected 20%
If the market go up I will recover load of money.. if the market will crash I risk around 20/25% of my capital….
Blimey give me a crystal ball!!
Thank you Martin for all that you do for your fellow Americans! A lot of these so called problems that exist today can be solved by simply governing by the Constitution and enforce current laws. We need no more laws, we have too many now. IN GOD WE TRUST!
Wall street and the big bankers have planned this. They want us to invest more money now and then they will drop the bottomm out again. This will become a vicious cycle. INvest low, take the market up slowly, keep investing thinking it has stabalized or continue’s to go up slowly, then out comes the bottom. Everyone looses a lot more money and they keep doing this until they have control and people have to depend on them. BHO is just a puppet for the like’s of the Bilderberg Group, Trilateral commission and the CFR. He attended their meeting in Washington at the Marriott in 2008 The press was told he was going to Chicago and that they would be able to fly with him on his campaign plane. Once they got the press on board they closed the doors and started out to taxi. The press asked Gibbs why the doors were shut and where is the President and Gibbs told them he had an Emergency meeting come up. Yet, they still flew the press to chicago. They completely shut down the marriott and security searched the premises. All the big shot bankers and dignitaries Including BHO arrived via Secret Service and police escort. This is the type of undermining crooked Thug we have in the White House. My suggestion is to invest in Gold not paper!!
Hi, Martin. Thanks for doing what you do best. I’m very grateful to have found you way back when. My most pressing question right now is probably too specific and individual for you to answer, but oh well: I bought into SRS a couple weeks ago, at a low; watched it make a nice spike upward, got stopped out; got back in at a slightly higher price than my first attempt; and it continues to make new lows. I could hang on and hope not to lose too much over the next ?month as the markets continue to berserkedly rise, or I could get out at a loss, then get back in later. I really want to have a concrete interest in SRS when the you-know-what hits the fan. I know you can’t say, but I’m asking you anyway, do you think this blind buildup in the major indices will last til the end of May? Thanks for all you do.
Martin, Thank you for going to Washington and representing us.
I lost trust in our country’s financial stability when the dollar was taken off the gold standard. Maybe I’m crazy, but I have seen the US dollar on a never ending roller coaster since. Do I trust the stock market? Not! I don’t have anything invested, have no insurance, no job; my mother just lost her investments made through a financial councelor, my cousin can’t pay the interest on business loans to family who invested in his business, my brother-in law can’t find construction work, my sister got involved in some online insurance scam and has lost her house over it, and my husband seems to think we all need to be armed for protection against each other!
The government should not have bailed out the banks or the auto industry. It’s costing all of us far too much to end in bankruptcy. We are a country of citizens with overblown expectations of what’s due them.
Martin,
You’re a trully a gifted prognosticator and analyst. Thank you for your attention
to all the unspon detail in these complex markets.
The spinning and brainwashing continue with the major media. The deception
continues as the bewilderd herd heads for the sheep sheering pens again. We have,
like most of the world, a fiat currency. Real wealth is being bled out of our people on a
daily basis. The stock market rise of 30% in two months, to me, is just like a depression bump in the 1930’s. People are opting to produce income with these investments not knowing the the rug has already been pulled out from under them.
To me, the name of the only game is wealth preservation. Either own real money and
or tangible assets in many forms, or parish with the coming class 5 economic storm.
The Dow index is down 95 points at 8516, SPX is down 5.26 points to 914 and the nasdaq is down 37 points to 1721. The final version of the bank stress tests come out tonight after a week of leaks.. Now I do not believe that the bank stress tests were realistic based on a poor economy, or higher unemployment. which would create a more accurate picture of bank solvency. And with the rise in treasury yields for 10 year bonds and 30 year bonds which suggests that bond demand is falling. However, I fear that the stock market will rally again on the usual better than expected green shoot type news.on the bank’s need for new capital.
I am short the market; and, every time the market goes up I lose some money on some positions and make money of other positions. The market can remain irrationally positive longer than I can afford the losses on the shorts.
Frankly, I wish I bought back in with my 401K in March with the DOW at 6500 and sold yesterday. Some of your writers said the DOW may reach 10,500 by the end of May or middle of June. But, Dr. Wiess, you have stressed over and over to us to sell out asap, build cash, and wait for the true bottom. I am gonna hang on to this strategy, even though it has been tempting. I’ve even gone out and bought some gold and silver. The main thing that keeps me true on this path is that your advice saved my 401K before the major sell off earlier. I thank you for that and will stay tuned for future encouragement and more market analysis.
Dr.Weiss
First I want to thank you and your team for excellent advice in a very volatile marketplace! I am a rookie, only started in the market in Nov 09. With your advice, and my fathers, I have made almost 100% profit in 6 months! Mostly in gold/mining and oil. Through this time I’ve been watching the indexes. I strongly feel that this rally is a hoax. Sooner or later the numbers have to match the value and the indexes will “re-adjust” (bottom) again. Im no financial wizard but it seems like all the numbers are rigged at this point. Im so sure of this that, just today, I bought a large amount of an inverse ETF on the S/P. I also bought a bull gold ETF a few weeks ago. Other than that, Im keeping my money in cash, as your recommendation, and waiting for the great buys that are sure to come. Its been difficult to wait but I think its the best move in such a crazy arena that is the market today. Thank you again for your knowledge and guidance. Its been working great for me! I also commend you on your book and your philanthropist approach!
I look forward to your thoughts on oil and renewable energy for a longer term wait…
Regards,
CB
If the banking industry is going to fail, why is Bank of America’s stock rising?
I could have made a lot of money if I would have listened to my gut feeling and not what you were saying about bank failures.
I bought a reversal ETF in the financial s after learning of your strategies the reversal ETF’S are beaten down. Why are the banks continuing to rise after the stress test release WITH A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MONEY NEEDED. This is mind boggling is there some kind of government inter prevention to make sure the banks don’t fail. Heaven help us all if there is and pray for America because there will be a hard landing eventually.
Our country is failing, this is a no brainer, but why is our country failing. There are many different reasons, and many different lists which people can go through, and no doubt many of those are true, but I believe we need to get back to the basics. We remember when our country used to be great, and continue to ponder the times when our school children could take a loaded gun to school and no one thought much about it. Is it because people have changed, or times have changed? The answer is, “No.” Times have not changed, nor people have changed. People have always been wicked and times have always been tough. Than if times and people have not changed than what is the problem? The problem is we have turned our back on God, and God is turning His back on US. We fail to raise our children to serve God, and when we have done that what hope does our next generation have: none. You can try and point to this person, or that person and try and blame society, but the real question is: Have I been training my kids about God, and teaching them to fear Him. If the answer is, No, then you are the person to blame. We live in a society where people can yell at the kids and have no order in their house and not call this abuse, but when a person believes in having order and spanks a child we call that abuse. We allow the gov to come in and take the child away and think this is the moral thing to do. The Bible says, “If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.” The fact is, this is a promise. People how call themselves Christians and live like the world, get right and God will turn His hand away from the wrath that is to come.
Hi Martin,
Just wanted to thank you for your insight on the current market crisis, please keep the great info coming in because we appreciate it very much.
I just have a couple of questions to ask, that is: the year 2011 has come up a few times in some articles I’ve come across, to be the year when the markets could hit a brand new low due to another hit in the mortgage crisis, is this true? If so, will the markets continue on an up trend until then like we’re currently seeing, with of course, the usual ups and downs along the way, but with the overall trend going up. Or are we due for a huge market down-fall before and after this new mortgage crash in 2011?
Regards,
Darin
Dear, Martin D Weiss
I want to thank you and your team for excellent advice. The government should not have bailed out the banks.Let them go bankrupt. The one thing I do not understand is why Goverment should get involved? and put their own people in denger?
Dr Weiss, I am a senior neophyte in the market. I have about 1/3 of my investment
in the market –mostly conservative dividend paying mutual funds , and the balance in
highly safety rated bank CDs –short term 12 mo on average. I read for advice your
column and a number of others , and I get widely differing and conflicting viewpoints
from “experts” most of whom I believe to be knowledgeable. So far I have made only a few small adjustments to my portfolio and so far I have been fortunate in that my losses have been well under that of the market. I cannot say I am comfortable with my
present position , but I am not a worrier and I do not wish to expose my family to any
more risk than necessary ! I do wish to thank you for the factual information and
your viewpoint on what is necessary to do to avoid catastrophe. Jack
All stock markets, bull or bear are always difficult to read. If you are a cartist, you can make a case either way. The same for the bears, Obviusly that’s what makes a market. In all markets, depending on ine’s temperament, knowledge of market functions, attitudes at the time of making judgements, a case can be made by the decision maker. Certainly, htere are significant signs re: trnds at hte moment but there are also interferences as to making decisive or indecisive judgemants as to what and when to invest and for how long a period of holding time. Obviously, there are several other factors including personal wealth and good old fear and greed.
I beleive picking good stocks that will survive the storms and also pay me (didvidends -quality) are the way to be in any stock market. Growth comes eventually when yields become the viable asset of the stock. Besides traders, who look for a quick gain, who else invests in the market in the majority. Total return is the name of the game and that’s what i am looking for. If I can find stocks after a reasonable due diligence of what research is avaialble to me (that in itself is a problem), then i can feel comfortable I am truly “investing” along with big boys. Please comment. Bob G
I am up over 57% in my accounts this year. I don’t care which direction the market moves as long as it moves. People here keep asking “Is this rally for real?” Well of course it is. It is happening, so it is real – 2000 points worth? Will it last? Who knows, only time will tell.
To be a smart investor that makes money one has to trade on the winning side. Not on the bearish side or the bullish side – on the winning side! For the past month plus – if you haven’t been trading on the bullish side, you haven’t been making money and have probably lost a lot.
I trade with very tight trailing stops, and I try to be patient, and I stay on top of it all day if I have trades on. I also try to wait until I am pretty sure the momentum in the stock I want to trade and the market are moving in the same direction, and then I jump in with both feet and trade big. The majority of the time I win, and as long as I win more than 60% of the time, I can have a great year. And I usually win more than 60% of the time, simply because I have been doing it for over 20 years.
If the trend starts to change, I try to change with it. As I said, I try to keep an open mind and trade on the winning side. The trend is your friend and I try not to trade unless I can see a definite trend. When I think I do, I find stocks that trade with a significant amount of volumn and then away we go.
So is it real? Of course it is. To deny it is to be blind or in denial. And it will stay real until it isn’t.
You can only trade the market you have, not the one you want or believe should be. If you aren’t on the right side of the real one that is happening, you shouldn’t be trading. So that’s my 2 cents worth!
If you look at what is being done rather than what is being said, it looks like our govern-ment is trying to bankrupt the U.S. and its citizens. The first onslaught was the illegal problem that affected our economy and our jobs, our health care and now the big spending and bailouts that don’t do anyone much good except the big banks and Acorn!
If we can’t pay the interest on our debt, the treasurer of the U.S. will declare a Force Majure – a force so large we can’t contend with it. The dollar will then be declared to be worth nothing and we will get a new currency – probably from the IMF or World Bank – and along with it a new government and a new constitution. I don’t know about you, but it looks like it’s already happening. Can they really print enough money to keep this circus going much longer? The inflation they are causing is a secret tax and a hardship for everyone. The frightening thing is the US government has already been subverted to the point they will vote for our demise – or our transformation to another
form of government. The so-called efforts to “fix” the economy are also frightening in the sense that they don’t actually help the people, but create more suffering for those who have lost jobs, homes, investments and life savings. It really looks as if our own
government is out to weaken us to the point where we would welcome Socialism as a means of survival
The Dow rally is a dangerous trap,how can you believe anything that comes out of the Feds or the Demo,s or the Crat,s.Mr Obama is the populas that you all needed but it doesn,t look like he can control the scammers and crooks that he,s surrounded by,time to give them the flick Barack,start listening to that woman who wants the “To Big To Fall ” rules changed,clean out the deadwood in the banks and financial institutions bring in the new and start again,shareholders are going to get hurt,if your’e still in there then you should have listened to Mr Weiss ages ago,don,t get greedy ,whats wrong with only making 10-15% gains,at least you can sleep at night,be conservative with your investments,greed is what got us all into this,your’e country was built on hard work and skills handed from father to son be prepared to go there again,i’m terrified of the stock market but at least i have a comfortable direction with Martins knowledge and i don’t expect to be a millionaire overnight.
Dr. Weiss:
What is your best estimate of the timing of the Bottom of the DOW? Thanks so much for your input to investing. You are the only advisor that I trust entirely.
Thanks
Carl
Are you a contrarian,or you, or you? If you are, and the consensus seems to be that we haven’ t hit bottom yet, there is a chance that we’ve hit bottom but are skeptical and can’t accept it. What signs can give us hints? Firstly charts. This much maligned tool (by the fundamentalists) shows supply and demand, especially volume charts. How many of you, or you, or you, study on balance volume? Helpful, but in today’s markets these are distorted by over the counter volume or by hedge transactions, those very ones that Dr. Weiss devotes a chapter to.
I try to remember, there is never room at the true top or bottom for all.
This is something to think about.
Martin, I have followed you for years and your advice has helped me more than anyone else. I looked at your bank listings and could not find My banks since I left Bank of America. I use First Tennessee in Nashville Tennessee and US Bank in Nashville. And have an investment in Trans America Life Insurance Co. Cedar Rapids Iowa. Any help will be appreciated.
Many thanks for your services.
George
Thanks for keeping us updated.
Please add me to your e-mail list.
I thought I was the only one that felt like this.
Eric
I really like Barry’s comments about being on the winning side instead of the bearish or bullish side…
I am curious of your response to this mindset, which seems to suit your temperament so well. So in a few more words: are you forced being a contrarian because you are acting as a financial advisor( just as a politician needs to choose a party)?
ps( I still value your words of caution!)
Cheers,
Pierre.
We need a super large set of windsheild whipers, to clear the smoke and mirrors coming from Washington DC. Look around. People are hurting! Working two jobs to make ends meet. They are NOT calling for the normal service needed on the home they own.
NO MONEY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Martin Your Book is excellent! I gave copy to each of my family..
It is like GPS. It will show you the way in the future and what has been behind us.
Thanks
Harold
HI Martin
asked once before but do you recom mend colapsing your 401k, which has high fees and a somewhat limited investment choices.
HI MARTIN ,
I THANK YOU AND YOUR TEAM FOR YOUR EXCELLENT ADVICE AND RESEARCH. I HAVE TAKEN SOME OF YOUR RECOS AND THE ETF’S AND AM SITTING ON THEM WAITING FOR THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL WE ALL KNOW IS COMING. WHAT I NEED TO KNOW IS MORE ABOUT THE BOND MARKETS AS TO WHAT THEY ARE AND WHICH ARE YOU RECO’ING . I UNDERSTAND THEY ARE RELATED TO DEBT BUT OTHER THAN THAT I AM NOT SURE HOW THEY WORK.
BYRON
When Dow hit 6700 ish you guys were saying Dow headed to 5000.. How’s that short working for you guys now? The leveraged etfs are getting killed..how’s your return on your million dollar portfolio? Haven’t heard a peep other than to solicit uneducated investors.. You have been barking how bad the economy is but you forget that the market trades on anticaption of future recovery, consumer sentiment, etc..not always on fundamentals..maker was crazy when nobody knew what most companys earnings were, know they have alot more clarity and market is better than before.. We have a good idea where market bottom is now, why not tell people how to trade around it? I have been since nov 1st and up 26%..selling puts and covered calls taking advantage of the volitility..so I was in at 10000 and 6700 range and doing fine..other services have helped me catch upside safely..just teach the other side too..
It seems foolish not to take profits on inverse ETFs. I’ve seen all my profits vanish! In the future Martin should post profit stops the same way he posts stop losses. This rally has been incredible and it would have been nice to ride it up – even if it eventually goes back down.
I am nervous about the risk I’ve taken with the reverse ETF’s and oil went the other way on me overnight. I’m betting on your info so I’ll hold tight for the correction. Vegas seems more predictable than this market.
This blog needs a little work (unlike M Weiss’ home page which is great). I read all of the above and note that many can not spell and make up words that do not exist in any language that I know and there seems to be a bit too much fear of black copters to suit my taste. All of the above detracts from importance of the issues that are out there. Calm down folks.
Is the market ready for a corrective downturn? The daily increases indicate no; however, the volatility index says yes. What say you?
Yes we agree with Martin We think its is one big super ponzie scam and many good people are going to loose everything the 1929 stock market creas had 6 lots of bulls runs before it finalt crashed the market and the Wall St controllers sure have no trouble to take the peoples money as they control the ups and downs of the daily / weekly market prices that why so many like Sours have bought dirivites bonds they know the final result CRASH
WoW, This is really a great topic & I honestly appreciate with you. I wish, you will describe about it more in your next posting and I am really waiting for that!! Thanks = 29 times! :)
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