CLICK HERE to join the discussion!
I sincerely hope you’re taking time each day to take part in this all-important conversation: Just the insights and investment ideas readers have given us so far could have helped you avoid serious losses and make more money in recent years!
The topic this week is, “What would the optimum growth portfolio for these uncertain times look like?” — and many of your fellow investors are diligently posting very thoughtful and detailed responses.
Yesterday, for instance, we took a look at the first of the major asset classes available to investors today: U.S. stocks. The question of the day …
Is this a good time to be buying or holding U.S. stocks and equity funds?
Hundreds of responses from our readers poured in …
John D. seems to feel that the answer is a definite “Yes.” “Weakness in the dollar is bullish for U.S. stocks,” he says.
Juan is taking the middle road: “Sadly, the U.S. financial future looks grim for the next three to five years to me. Investing in the U.S. now seems pretty dangerous,” he says.
“Still, there will be some great U.S. companies that will make their own homeruns, no matter what. The Apples, Microsofts, and even Goldmans of the U.S. economy will make it happen once again.”
Fernando C., on the other hand, wouldn’t touch any U.S. stock with a ten-foot pole: “I am not in any stocks,” he says. “I am 20% short, and 80% in cash.”
And Michael S. goes even farther: “I think this recovery is a smoke screen,” he says. “The current bull market is nothing more than a bear trap.”
“In direct answer to your question — sell in February!!!!!”
Overall, though, the general consensus seems to be that …
On a scale of one to ten
(with ten being the best),
U.S. stocks seem to rate about a
“TWO” as growth investments today.
Most of our readers feel that U.S. stocks may be OK for a small percentage of your money — perhaps the tech leaders Juan mentioned or a U.S.-based resource stock or two.
But for most, the overall U.S. stock market poses significant risks — including the risk of a double-dip recession. For growth with safety, they prefer to look beyond U.S. stocks.
So today, we’re going to move on — and see what our readers think about investing in FOREIGN stocks for growth. The question of the day:
How would you rate foreign stocks in the current environment?
Where in the world are you investing now? Which countries do you feel will provide the greatest profit potential with the lowest risk in the first half of 2010?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio.
Just click here and use the “comments” area to share your thoughts. Early tomorrow, I’ll add my own thoughts.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 209 comments… read them below or add one }
How would you rate foreign stocks in the current environment?
Their fundamentals are better and the companies operate in markets with more potential for growth than the U.S. However, until foreign markets trulty uncouple from U.S. markets, your stuck with ownership of good companies that cannot escape the gravitational orbit of the U.S. markets. I fear that if the U.S. crashes, the entire world will be pulled into a depression.
Where in the world are you investing now? Which countries do you feel will provide the greatest profit potential with the lowest risk in the first half of 2010?
I am in Indonesia and China, but cautiously.
WJW
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:06 AM
It seems the key question you’re raising, Warren, is this: How do you (a) take advantage of their strong fundamentals, while (b) avoiding the gravitational pull of the U.S. markets? Tough question, but here’s my best answer:
1. When you look at day-to-day or even month-to-month fluctuations in U.S. and global markets, you can clearly see they are correlated.
2. But when you look at a timeframe spanning several years, you see an entirely different picture — U.S. stock markets in a zigzag decline, many foreign markets in a zigzag rise.
3. Conclusion: Perhaps the best approach overall is to view strength in U.S. markets as selling opportunities; weakness in foreign markets as buying opportunities.
— Martin
I believe that China and India are the two best areas to be invested in right now. China is wide open and I have been following suggestions by Toony Sagami and doing quite well. In India I invested in Tata Motors in March 2009 and have a 400 percent increase.
January 27, 2010 Dear Martin:
I am very concerned about investment capital leaving the USA for acquisitions in foreign assets. Several of us have been discussing this and believe that this will do the USA great harm.
Would you please comment on this for us.
Kean
Asian countries offer the best long term growth potential because of low cost manufacturing, infrastructure building, and population numbers with increasing purchasing power. U. S. Large cap stocks with at least 50% of overseas income is an excellent way to play both ends of the spectrum, international exposure and economic recovery at home. A balanced approach lessens political and currency risks which are always present in international investing.
Dear Sir: The US Equity Market in my opinion is a mature market.
Most of the growth in 2010-2011 will take place in emerging economies
of China, India, and Brazil. White there are some hidden gems in
our markets, they are becoming more and more difficult to find.
Volitility is rampant. You must be quick and own a fast computer.
CBostic
Brazil,China and India are the best areas for growth as well as resource stocks,oil,gas ,minerals[Canada,Austalia] and water resourses. Also the demand for food will grow so add fertilizers. In the USA growth will take place by buying market share and/or expanding into growing economies.
China seems to be doing everything we should be doing, they are doing energy efficient infrastructure upgrades…
Well,here is my story I have my savings with ameriprise at 158,000 and it is at a standstill. I lost 100,000 in the crash and of course am devastated as it was my life savings and I see it at a standstill each month making zilch. I might as well put it in a savings fund at a local bank. Tell me what to do if you have any suggestions Im disgusted with Ameriprise and the agent handling my account.
As far as the Market goes…it’s time to pay the piper… the Market rally was pumped by way of TARP, not real growth. It’s quite obvious as the country is still sinking…
I think foreign stock vitality depends upon where you are talking about. My overall view is that most of the emerging Asian nations will do best now and for several years 1) because they are not saddled with huge debt, either personally or nationally 2) they are hard working with minimal expectations of what they are “entitled” to 3) they have a desire to become “middle class” as we once knew it, which equates to sacrifice and being long term investment minded
US Stocks, on the other hand, gain value, on paper, from large institutions and funds buying and selling and in large part, manipulating the values, based on institutional activity. The average person is not involved in active trading. They are actively involved in keeping their jobs, finding jobs and trying to conserve what little they have. The US stock market, in general, is smoke and mirrors.
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:07 AM
Agreed. But as Warren writes above, don’t forget that if U.S. stock markets fall, they can and will drag down foreign markets as well, sometimes sharply. If so, however, those declines could be long-term buying opportunities. — Martin
I think foreign stocks of countries with a robust domestic consumption story like India are good bets. Overlay sovereign debt issues before choosing foreign stocks. Its choppy out there…for example India is attractive but also has a high fiscal deficit.
Why do people insist that ‘one size shoe fits all?’ I am 87 years old. I don’t buy green bananas much less study stocks that are labeled “growth”. So, I will not comment on the question dejur. I look for yield…and at least 7% before I even start an analysis on any security. I find Canadian REITS or Royalty trusts suit my purpose so I don’t look at anything else. If that makes me a one-trick pony so be it. B. Eder
market will see a short term bounce in Feb. looks to last for a few months then look out below
Hi Martin
The US market is up now but if it goes down the rest of the world will to, because we are thair
customers. If we dont buy ,there is a big problum. We are all in the same boat.
Thanks Again GH
As always, I believe that all global markets for trading equities are markets of stocks. I am agnostic toward the regional economic dependency of a particular company’s revenue stream. I am a bottoms up investor. If I determine a company’s stock to be undervalued relative to its growth outlook, I really do not care whether the stock is domestic or international. That said, I prefer to look outside the U.S. because the potential for stable growth is greater in countries like Brazil, China, India and the rest of southeast Asia. I also want healthy dividends and dividend growth to help lower risk.
If the overwhelming majority think that US stocks are a two then that is where I will go. Anytime too many people get on one side of the boat you should be on the other side to make real money.
Hi what kind of stocks can you buy and hold to give you long term security
pam
Another question is anyone investing in the Ukraine, or have heard of investing in the bread basket of Europe to use prime arable land for growth and large returns on the price of a hectare, as the Ukraine wants to improve their economy and join the common market, so needs western investment.
Someone put me off because of the legal system, or lack of it, to be more polite.
Any one know anything?
Rating on foreign stocks
If you combine all the foreign stocks from industrialized nations with emerging markets, the performance will be about what you would get from US stocks. There are several markets that will significantly outperform the US. There are also several markets that will significantly underperform. On a valuation basis, I feel that India and Singapore are the best markets to be in right now.
Peru – Peru is one of the strongest of the South American economies and is freqently overlooked as most focus on Brazil and Argentenia. Peru has massive natural resources – lots of GOLD, SILVER, OIL, and NATURAL GAS.
Actually, I was hoping to get the ideas from your team, as as paying member! I have bought stocks you guys recommended and they are all down. Should I sell or hold on to them? I am 50% in cash and 50% invested in stocks, all with your recommendation. You have been very vague and straight advice it now what we investors need. Looks as if you try to keep all sides happy with no straight answers, just scare tactics coming out of your camp.
Nearly every investment pundent on the planet,( including Weiss by the way), is touting the advantages of emerging market investments. That makes me nervous. No doubt there are excellent oportunities in this segment, but if we have a double dip recession in the US, won’t 2008 be repeated with us pulling down the rest of the world’s markets?
I will wait on my opinion until after the decision is made about the Federal Reserve Chairman to be appointed/reappointed or not.
I have $50,000 dollars in a Fannie Mae-Freddie-Mac bond. Do you think it is safe? With all the talk from Barney Frank, I’m getting nervous.
US stocks rise from the depths is 2009 is or was largley a product of Government action ( either overt or covert ). I think what the admin tried to do was prop up the evil market and just play lip service to unemployment. Having said that, they can only propup so long. If market momentum takes over US stocks will not retract much again. But if we get no real momentum and or Gov action to prop up the markets, we are headed to anemic growth or possibly significant decline. You can’t creat all of this debt without raising taxes or reducing Government in order to accomodate the debt. Growing out of the debt seems unlikely in comming years. The best you can hope for in the next few years is anemic growth. A real retreat is more likely.
It has been my experience that the time to buy forgin stocks is when the dollar is strong. If you think the dollar has strengthened enough relative to other currencies now is the time to commit some money outside of the US. In my industry our design, engineering, and purchasing departments have been moved to China and India. I followed the jobs and moved some money into those index ETFs.
THEY WILL BE BACK SOONER RATHER THEN LATER
Hi, my name is Delores before i invest money in stocks i would like to know if the creditors can take my money out of my stock investment ? I ask this question because i know they can take your money out of your bank account. They took my daugther money out of her bank account, and i really don’t want that to happend to me.
International investment is important in this climate. Current policies of this administration are inhibiting recovery and the looming debt crisis is a disaster waiting to happen. I think the safest place to invest is Brazil.
If you look carefully at the Stock market statistics each day ( Dow Jones, S&P,ec),
they almost always are going DOWNWARD. I have read recently that RETAIL stores
are doing well. I just bought some shares of Liz Claiborne stock. I personally wouldn’t
put large amounts of money, ie $100,000 and ^ in anything but a SAVINGS type account : CDs or Money Market accounts, until there is more of a sign that the Economy is on a SUSTAINED recovery.For someone looking for employment, I would recommend the fields that seem to show job openings.
The U.S. economy still seems too shaky, the largest banks are insolvent and still burdened by worthless “assets.” Politically, there seems to be too much resistance to needed reforms, so they probably will not be enacted. All in all, its business as usual. No, I do not expect to invest in U.S. stocks or bonds at this time.
How about the broader look at ETF’s in foreign plays- I follow your Specultive and conservative picks which for the most part recommends US based ETF’s-such as TBT-WAT-UNG -SKF- DOG etc… and agree with your overall assesment for these-
What else is out there in the foreign arena on broad ETF’s? I like to play both sides growth and Inverse-
Dave
Pam,
I have been listening to these emails from Doc, Weiss for a year now and I am happy.
I have a Roth, Sept, and a small Roth, I have 20k in gold, and had 10 in silver.
I’m a realtor so I am not doing bad with this either.
My investments are in the SGG up from 72.00 and in FXI down from 47.00.
I own two houses in Chicago, renting one and live in the other on a golf course. Is there anything else that I should do to protect my assests?
And what if my wife wants to divorce me? Please help because in these changing times things are unstable at the home.
Why indian stock market so dependent on us stock market? It should not be.
I am sure that the new emerging markets of Brazil, India and China will make a fantastic show, together with long term market of Canada(a country that has all the natural resouces tapped as well as untapped). I think we should not just throw USA in the bin. Its high technology penny stock companies will do very well. Today if the US wants to rise up again, Mr Obama has to learn from his country’s history, devalue the dollar(which I feel he has to) and then he and the world can see USA sprinting again on the recovery expressway.
Ilike Canada,junior miners of oil.gold silver uranium potash.From a policy standpoint I think Japanese stocks are a screaming buy right now !!!!
we are retired-and investing our wealth- very conservatively. 75% is in t-bills, i-bonds short trsy(shy) waiting for more visibility. 5% in high divedend stocks, 5% in gold, 5% in growth, and value funds 10% in inl bonds. we think it will take at least three years to find a way FORWARD- hope we live to see it. wm.p.s. we plan to pay no taxes to this administration as protest of his immoral positions. we will simply spend our princal until he goes away.
For the most part I would not invest in most US stocks. There are exceptions. There are small to medium oil exploration companies with good financials, low dept/equity ratios, good oil and gas reserves and very good future oil reserve potential. These companies will do well in the future. Some will be bought out in the near future by major oil companies. Also I believe pipeline limited partnerships will do well.
I prefer to invest in countries like South Korea, Brazil, Australia,and Canada. As long as China, India and other Southeast Asian do well these countries will benefit.
would not rate foreign stocks any better than u.s. stocks – the question for me is not where, but what? my theme is global etf’s focused on essential resources (water, food, energy, materials) and precious metals – my bakers dozen is PIO,CGW,MOO,PAGG,BGR,GEX,BQR,IRV,MXI,BCF,GGN,GDX,SLV – four of these are covered call funds so the porfolio yields about 3.5%, use dividends and take profits to buy more of whatever is down at the time
I’m long gold, silver, oil. I’m short treasuries & s&p 500 and own monthly dividend corprate bonds and energy. I’m expecting a global market crash by summer. I feel i’m overdoing it, but I didn’t do very well in 2009 and am trying make it up on the downside. Is this valid?
The only place to be invested is where people have money to spend. That is no longer the United States. Demographically China and India have the largest growing middle class. Asia also has the largest manufacturing base. The best gains will be in those companies that produce products and materials for these growing giants. I do not see America ever recovering from this crises. I intend to be invested in growing economies, not one that has ceased to function.
Martin- I have a philosophy which is different from the mainstream philosophy.My portfolio consists mainly of commodities as I feel that is the best place to be at this time. The market is like a mine field and thisprovides me with a better feeling of securitiy
since I feel the other sectors will be very unstable in the foreseeable future. I continue to restrict my additions to my portfolio along these lines. I feel foreign investment would
be a good idea although I lack the knowledge to venture there. Therefore my foreign investment is limited and restricted to commodities also.I can’t have a portfolio review as my portfolio currently stands at 200,000.It was approximately 240,000 before the correction. William Bradley
I thank the US market has a long downside. The market form March of last year to present was an up wave in a bear market which has now topped out. This has been confirmed by DJI and DJT both hitting new highs on lower volume a sign of market weakness. Another sign market is discounting good earnings.
I’m Currently in short ETF’s and will ride the wave down unless I see signs that the market has bottomed by a high volume sell off.
Feel the world is still in a recession/depression and will remain until the world monetary system is stabilized.
At the moment, I am all cash. That said….I am quite intrigued by the opportunity of China. The demographics have NEVER looked as good anywhere else on earth. However, the USA and the almighty dollar still rule and will continue to rule for quite some time to come. Problem is….the slow creep toward socialism and fascism by our government is going to strangle the economy. Higher and ever higher taxes on the people and business will eventually kill us.
China, on the other hand, has moved past the kool aid of central planning and embraced a market driven economic model. And while they will suffer some bumps along the way because of their reluctance to go the whole nine yards of capitalism, the momentum they will generate because of their market’s size and youthfulness will just be magnificient to behold.
I believe there are good growth stocks in every market, you just have to find them. I have a significant investment in MLPs as they provide growth and income. Be aware, there are mlps and there are mlps, not all are the same quality. I also have money in Chinese equities and consider the present downturn a buying opportunity as their recent interest rate and reserve requirements increase are not really a bad thing for the Chinese markets over a 4 to 6 month period. They will still have healthy increases in revenue and profits.
investing out side the USA:
My Lord and my God….have mercy on us!
If we small investors can’t trust our own country to be honest,
fair and open with the “true numbers”, why in the world
would you think we could trust other countries would do better!?
At least I can see main street stores opening and closing and parking lots full or empty. When a president of the United States
asks what does the word “is” means (remember, he is an attorney) how can I trust healthcare, my 401k, let alone a
brochure from a foreign company?
As my brother always told me…..stay out of the back alley’s!
and you should too!
God Bless,
JL
Question: Is this a good time to be buying or holding U.S. stocks and equity funds?
Response: This question’s response is bounded by the timeframe. For the next three months the DOW will decrease towards 9,000 — the start of which occurred last week. This is the “bear trap”. Causes for this event are first, the pricing of equities at a level for a stronger recovery than earnings are showing, and second, the extension of a weaker recovery resulting from decreased consumer spending due to continuing long-term 10% unemployment. In three to four months, purchase of stocks will again be favorable. For the next several seasons until fuller employment returns, these oscillating bull and bear meanderings will be the norm so that equities’ P/E can turn down to their normal values.
I had believed that China stocks, with some gold and energy stocks would get it done. However, the past few days have been a disaster! I have no idea where to turn next.
I am invested in China, Brazil, Chile, gold, silver, Canadian Oil trusts. I don’t like the us stocks because I don’t know what our gov will do to these companies if they feel that our companies are making too much money/profit. I am thinking that Obama and our legislators rather demonize and penalize these profitable companies as being the evil doers of our economy.
WATCH OUT FOR FINANCIAL ADVISERS AS THE MAJORITY JUST FOLLOW THE CROWD. ASK YOUR ADVISOR TO ONLY TAKE A PERCENTAGE COMMISSION WHEN YOUR INVESTMENTS ARE PROFITABLE.
It appears to me foreign stocks appear stronger for investment at this time
I followed Toni Sagami and Edelson advise on China. Unfortunately, I did not invest until Jan 2010 and then 3 days later the China bubbble burst .
Some other advisors said there was an asset or commodity bubble, but not burst for months. One thing I hate about most advisers its they don’t tell you in time when to sell and after stock had had a big run up they say “you should have bought 1 year or xxx months ago.”
I am afraid we are going on a downward trend at this time, the overall opinion seems to be that the dow is too high right now and will continue to drop. If the jobless rate doesn’t drop, I don’t think we will see any good trends again until then.
JC. Conn.
BEING RETIRED, I WANT ONLY 20-25 % EXPOSURE TO STOCKS. PREFER AUSTRALIA AND ETF’S IN CHINA. BANK CD’S AND SOME GOLD/SILVER MAKE UP THE BALANCE . NEED TO LEARN OF OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLES THAT HAVE MORE YIELD, BUT STILL MINIMAL RISKS. ANY IDEAS ??
I made a nice profit over the last 12 months (37.5%), and I am not inclined to remain in stocks US or Foreign any longer. Early January I sold stocks and bought bonds. I have kept my gold shares to go up with the panic that may be coming. I hold bonds for the same reason. If no panic occurs gold and bonds will remain static. If the bull returns, I’m ready to dive back in. The US and foreign markets are tied closely together, so when the bull resumes I will go back in about 50/50.
I wouldn’t invest in foreign markets at this time. China is reining in it’s foreign buying and this affects Australia, Brazil, India, and all regional countries. The U.S. is not exporting much so all foreign economies are anemic. I wouldn’t invest in the U.S. because we haven’t seen the last of the recession. Hold cash in money market funds, it’s better to not receive interest than to lose money.
I am only in US stocks in a very small way, as the risk of a Dollar meltdown is just too great. To forecast the next six months is a very tough call. I would go with the herd on this one – China, Brazil, India, Indonesia – but it may take longer for these investments to bear fruit.
Also we must remember that foreign investments are very much a currency play and your personal view on the likely direction of the Dollar should heavily influence foreign investment decisions.
Plus if the “flight to quality” thinking persists, a fall in US stocks will probably cause a rise in the Dollar, potentially nixing any foreign stock gains.
I believe the best return on investment will come from China, Brazil, and Australia stock groupings. As long as the Federal Reserve remains alive, investments in U.S. stocks is not a viable choice, at least for the short term – perhaps for the medium term.
This, above, is my feeling on my 78th birthday.
Martin,is Wess capital management inc @7111 fairway Dr Palm beach gardens Fl 33410 a part of your company?
All my retirnement investments are non-US. The growth has been very satisfying and it continues disregarding how the U.S. is doing. I am out of the U.S. since 2007 and I am O.K. However, I am keepping a very close eye on emergent economies because that might have a correction sooner or later too.
Hi Martin,
During an inflationary period, would a Treasury Bond Ladder be a safer mechanism to protect the value of an investor’s bonds at each staggered maturity while enjoying the “averaging up” of received interest rates (somewhere between short term and long term bond maturities)? In this case it is assumed the investor’s goal is to get the largest interest rate return while preserving principle, knowing then that access to the entire bonds’ ladder asset would be judicially limited to the bottom-rung/first principle portion of the total bonds’ ladder/asset. I refer readers to Google under the Search of “bond ladders”.
Your comments, please.
Brian
Martin, I believe the US market will under preform Brazil and China. However, as the US market goes down it will take the others with it. On the come back, the other markets will come back faster and will not have dropped as far as the US market. It will not be a safe market no matter where you are.
I think china, asia ,australia and germany
Ryan
We just re-directed our portfolio to: 1/3 utilities and energy, both with great dividends, 1/3 CD’s and 1/3 short term bonds. At our age, 70 & 63, we cannot suffer another bust like 2008-09. We gained back a $60,000 loss and we are going to sit on it.
I’ve listened to a lot of advice from your Weiss group. I don’t own any stocks at present. I have a large list of your recommended stocks I’m watching. When the markets fall, I will try to buy buy good stocks when they are good values. When the government stimulated U.S. markets come down, stocks in China, India, & Brasil will also get cheaper. Buying now seems to be premature.
ALTHOUGH I think its feasible to say Asia and Brazil will prosper this year, I am hoping
that the volatility in our markets will calm down,although if you know what you are doing you can make money while vix is up!
As I have said, I am not a “big spender”, got to build capital ,so got to stay home. My
little nest egg which IS my safety net,will stay in CDS and only touched for emergencies.
Happy trading to all.
A
Taking a long term view the balance of power economically is rapidly shifting away from the USA and Europe. Latin America and Asia are emerging as the new kids on the block. Investing in these areas seems to be the best for growth while income may yet be better at home.
I think it is better to invest in the order 1. Gold /precious metals 2. Stocks / Funds in emerging markets like India, China and Brazil where there is tremendous growth potential (Just look for dips and buy them) and then 3. some of the great US companies which have their presence in emerging markets.
Although US market may take emerging markets down along with it to some extent, emerging markets are very likely to rebound with great returns faster than US markets
Is this just another money making attempt? How about working on the profitability of the Contrarian Portfolio and the The Foundation Alliance.
All I know is what I am told by what I trust to be reliable sources. And from what I am told, it would appear that many foreign stocks are good investments, especially in China and several other Asian countries. But, like U.S. stocks, they aren’t all great just because they are Asian, and good information and advice is vital. And even the best analysts will make some mistakes.
Martin Weiss:
What do you think?
I believe China and Brazil to be the best bets for now. I also believe the worst is still to come for the markets overall, and have made some major personal changes (career) to prepare for poorer conditions in our economy. I am now only 45% invested (10% short on T-bonds as I absolutely believe rates are going up, and 35% long on a few of the Weiss group picks in gold, food, & oil companies that are mostly in China & Brazil.) I see a big “W” coming since the current market has been artificially pumped up by our government. When/if this bad news hits, I don’t think any stock market in the world can escape the immediate effects. I will remain invested especially in China and Brazil for now hoping for a few more profits while looking for signs of a reversal, but if/when the Dow drops below 10k I will sell it all and go short on the U.S. markets with 25% of my money.
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Interesting approach, Mark. Sounds like you could wind up with (a) long positions in China, Brazil and resources plus (b) short positions in the U.S. That could work out quite well. Just remember that, if your goal is to achieve a good BALANCE between your longs and shorts, you also have consider the VOLATILITY of each investment category. — Martin
My gut feeling is that foreign resource, energy, agriculture stocks are the best bet. Even if there is a near term correction, the long term for these types of stocks appears to be excellent. I like Canada, Australia and Brazil as the countries with those companies in these sectors. I am less sure about China per se in the near term, and skittish about Russia. India will probably be an emerging factor–slightly longer horizon.
Personally, I agree with the majority of what is written in this blog. This market is very much still a huge gamble. While it is more unsteady than anyone would like, there are more problems with rising national debt and weak dollar that will cause foreign investments to appear more attractive. BUT there is not much comfort to be had in foreign because of the unknowns. What we know is that there are extenuating circumstances with foreign governments, volatile monetary values, taxes, fees, etc. Yes, we are all in this together. Foreign vs. Domestic? Is the grass always greener? Do your homework. Make your list and check it twice. Balance and diversify if you have a strong heart and can assume risk or take a time out if you can’t.
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Irene, your last sentence nearly says it all, doesn’t it? “Balance and diversify if you have a strong heart and can assume risk … or take a time out if you can’t.” I like it because it succintly makes some of the key points I’ve been making as well: First, you are not compelled to invest. If the current market environment makes you very uncomfortable, stay out or at least find a competent money manager who can give you peace of mind. Second, even if you CAN assume some risk, take prudent steps to protect yourself from the downside. — Martin
Hi,
Personally have structered portfolio toward small cap gold producers,oil,lithium,platinum,
potash,copper,zinc,plus 25%bullion.All either Canadian,Australian,Hong Kong,Switzerland,South Africa ,UK,based.Two positions held on US exchange.Hold chf AS OPPOSED TO $.favour Norwegian &Swedish Kroner.PLEASE GIVE ME AN CRYSTAL BALL!!!!!!!!Suguard /Bonner suggest get out of stocks.lThrow me a morsel & give your idea.
Sincerely,
CWT
I have been building cash the last few months as I do not trust US equites, bond market or other US assets. Soon I shall diversify out of US securites into equities which I believe will offer much greater potential in international, stronger demand and stronger currency markets!
Brian K.
I am particularly interested in Canada, Australia and Brasil because they are suppliers of product to end users. I look for companies that indicate strong fundamentals with reasonable order backlogs. Maintaining awareness of the importing nation’s use levels is important. I allocate about 20% to this group. Another 15 % is denominated in foreign investments and held outside the USA. The balance is in moneymarket funds, cash and metal.
It seems today that all investments through 401’s or IRA’s are the target for absorbing the huge losses that have been brought about by the greed and manipulation of the major banks, hedge funds and our own government. We are extremely limited on what we can invest in. I would dearly love to go foreign but can’t because of the limits put in place by the brokerage where my 401, converted to IRA at retirement, is placed. I have lost 70% over the last two years and am going to dump the whole portfolio as soon as I can. I doubt I’ll get enough out of it to invest in anything but keeping food on the table. Rough world out there today. I love your emails and advice, keep it coming and if I manage to salvage enough I will follow some of or advice. John
Martin-
I have a very small % of my portfolio in stocks, at the moment. Probably 10%, mostly for dividend yield. I took some profits earlier this month on the other stocks, I held. I have a few not for dividend yield following Claus Vogt and Larry Edelsen’s, recommendations. I do have within those recommendations a very limited exposure to overseas stocks, plus a small IRA investment in New Asia with T Rowe Price. Foreign markets haven’t decoupled from US markets, to this point, that’s why I’m conservative. When our market goes down, so do they. Looking longer term, the foreign markets will definitely outpace our markts and that will be where to make profits. I just want to preserve my capital, so I’m conservative. Looking with interest to your response and just hoping this isn’t a sales job.
I own ETF’s for China (CHN, CHII, CHIE), Brazil (BRF, EWZ), Australia (EWA, IAF), Korea (EWY). These areas have strong economies and I believe offer the best risk/reward potential.
I don’t like what I see in US markets, overseas markets look dicey.
I know there are companies that are profitable, just need to find.
I am retired and have no more torarance for loosing any more of our investments.
Will continue in cash looking at more real estate investment.
Own our home and one other that is rented.
I own ETF’s for China , Brazil , Australia , Korea . These areas have strong economies and I believe offer the best risk/reward potential.
I own ETF’s for China, Brazil and Australia. I believe these areas have strong economies and offer the best risk/reward potential.
I own ETF’s for China , Brazil , Australia , Korea . These areas have strong economies and I believe offer the best risk/reward potential.
We’re on the verge of a global meltdown. All governments have borrowed far too much and those that haven’t are operating under tyranny (with future social unrest coming) to produce their wealth. I sold everything except my physical gold last week.
HI DR. WEISS:
NEW SUBCRIBER HERE, AM IMPRESSED WITH THE INFORMATION AND VIEWS OFFERED BY YOU AND YOUR STAFF. I LOOK FORWARD DAILY FOR YOUR COMMENTS AND IDEAS.
AT A MUCH YOUNGER AGE, I RECALL “OLDER” PEOPLE MAKING COMMENTS SUCH AS “THIS COUNTRY IS GOING TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET”……………NOW AT AGE 68, I FIND MYSELF THINKING THESE SAME THOUGHTS.
THERE ARE ECONOMIC LAWS, I.E. GRESHAM’S LAW,” BAD MONEY DRIVES GOOD MONEY OUT,” WHICH ARE AS RELEVENT AND IMMUTABLE AS THE LAWS OF PHYSICS.
THE BALDERDASH COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON SCARES ME, AND THEREFORE ARE INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS INVESTING IN THE “BRIC’S” NOTABLY BRAZIL AND CHINA.
I LEAN TOWARDS TRADING…………………BUY AND HOLD SCARES ME. BERNARD BARROUK WAS ONCE ASKED HOW HE ACCUMLATED GREAT WEALTH, AND HIS RESPONSE WAS “I SOLD TOO SOON”.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AND BEST REGARDS TO YOU AND YOUR TEAM. ALL EFFORTS TO IMPROVE MY FIANCIAL POSITIONS ARE MUCH APPRECIATED.
SINCERELY,
SANDFORD GALLAGHER
IRONCASTING@SBCGLOBAL.NET
first of all obama has doubled our national debt===with fed funds a o.25 % this is not a oppressive burden at this time ==although it will become so if rates rise to 5%.== he now wants to raise our national debt to 14.2 trillion from 12 trillion==china is collecting the interest and we are paying it===in addition the chinese infrastructure stimulous ===paid for with cash not borrowed money== is succeeding , so much so that they have had to reduce availability of credit===i would like to know how much of our national budget is taken by interest rates at the present level and at the 5%level===since this will be a millstone round everybody,s neck ===businesses ,taxpayers and those who do not pay taxes (because business will add on their taxes to the price of goods)==the economy must be sluggish and the money sent to washington to pay the interest will not be paid as salaries==so hiring will be anemic===no matter what jobs program obama initiates he cannot stimulate hiring===so the die(millstone) is cast=== and unemployment real time will be at 15-20% ===so where to invest ===the concept of buying a good growing business and staying with it has not yet reached china===and since the chinese are born gamblers==the market will behave like a yo-yo as they rush for the exits===still 1.3 billion people have big buying power===what i do is take a small initial position and wait vuntil the stock reaches a low level owing to selling===check be sure that the company is still sound==and then overbuy so that when it recvers i can sell a portion and recover my original investment ==and ride free woth the rest===india is similar===but america is permanently saddled with unprecedented debt which she cannot pay===obama has incurred more debt than all of the presidents who came before-=== from george washington to george w bush=== and wants to spend more.. the debt does not come free ==interest has to be paid…so the die is cast do you know what a trillion dollars is?==if you were born in the same year as jesus christ and spent a million dollars a day from that day to this you still would not have spent a trillion dollars
3 car mfg’rs came around after major losses including AMC Geo.Romney took over and stock broke @ $105.00, Studebaker also was @ $2.75 and broke @ 87.00 plus…with Toyota going to the dumps, Ford could catch a cold and start sneezing dollar signs…
Several industries like transport, undertakers, butchers, Bakers, and Candlestick makers and the govt. and the banks might flounder until the working slobs go back to work,as it will be quite spotty, otherwise those deep thinkers with brainstorms hooking those takers must produce something other than windmills which don’t produce a dime if the wind doesn’t blow…
TAX EXCEMPT BOND AND SCARED OF THEM
I AM IN MAJOR OILS–CVX, COP, BP, PBR, APC,OXY, AND SEVERAL OF THE DRUG COMPANIES BUT WITH PFIZER THE ONLY AMERICAN ONE. THE MAJOR U S PHARMA ARE ONLY ABT,PFE, AND MERCK/SCHERING. I AM LIKEING THE SEVERAL EUROPE SWISS , BRITISH AND FRENCE COMPANIES .
I think the stock market is headed for a major correction. Holding long positions is very dangerous. I am short the japanese and emerging markets using reverse ETF’s.
Keep your money out of the USA, Invest in India, Brazil, Chile, and any country that is an emerging economy. Australia is also safe as it is a commodity based economy and is also run on a sound financial footing- unlike our own !
If the US markets are going to have the declines you are talking about, all markets all over the world will go down, and investors who haven´t been prudent enough to be in cash or cash equivalents are going to lose a lot of money. If the markets tank over the next year or two, most investors will be stuck with losses and not be able to take advantage of the bargains available. It is not necessary to be invested all the time. That only benefits the salesmen, not the invester. Cash..Cash..Cash will be King !!!!..Good Luck !!!!
I like Chile and Australia.
Dear Martin.
Many apologies for not responding to your questions soon. The reason for it is that I’ve moved from Japan recently and I am not ready to do any investment. Therefore I decided to join your group as an auditor in order to acquire knowledge regarding the investment business.
I’ll appreciate if you allow me to be just an auditor because I am not able to answer your question due to lack of knowledge. Unless otherwise I’ll withdraw the membership.
Sincerely yours, george Komaki
The US and UK stockmarkets both have opportunities and threats. Understanding a company’s business is essential before investing in it. The same goes for currency risk. I have investments in Euros, US and Canadian $. All look a good bet against sterling! It is a good time to be cautious because the vast majority of politicians anywhere do not understand business and what makes a strong economy. I am also heavily in cash, silver and gold. Economists in the 20 and 21st Centuries do not really understand what they are doing……………
I’m uncomfortable with the information I reading regarding to the economy. I have 100% of my money is in cash. I believe this year is going to be hard to find good investments due to all of negative things coming out of Washington. I’m lost to find any good information for investment strategies. I need alot of help.
With almost zero interest income from the Banks I have to invest in equities. I invest in good companies in the USA, China, Brazil, Canada, Switzerland some for growth and some for the dividends or both.
Have Been Looking Around And Reading About Buying Stocks ETFs Everything!
Not Ready Yet To Buy Anything Just Looking And Whats Going To Happen I Do Have (1) IRA And (1)401(k) I Am Going To Change My Portfolio Anybody Out There Have Any
Ideas For A High Power Porfolio For A IRA!I Want To Have No Less Than 1.2 Million In My IRA Before 2020!
Greetings Martin,
It seems the analyses of China’s current statis are very contradictory. On the one hand, some are saying China is the gold standard of business models, can do no wrong, and is skyrocketing towards mega success in 2010-2012.
Others are warning that the Chinese are hiding the true picture, that a huge real estate bubble there is ready to burst, that the lending is cooling down, and that the Chinese government has been deceiving the world about its true strength–hiding serious systemic problems.
Now, one might ask oneself: Historically, have the Chinese ever been known to deceive anyone, including their own people or foreign governments? But, you might add, Weiss staff members are right there in China reporting back in glowing terms of a land flowing with milk and honey, with yuan practically growing on trees. Ahah, then China is the place to put your money, right?
Well, what about one huge unconsidered factor: Is there a hidden volatility in China, only hinted at by the recent troubles with the Uighars? Could China implode in internal struggles as the masses of impoverished rural peasants rumble against the priveleged city folk? Could any new financial fears cause the Chinese people to tighten up on spending again and withdraw to their traditional stance of saving most of what they earn, thereby crushing domestic consumption?
All these things cannot be brushed aside. China is not the U.S. Its people in the hundreds of millions are still impoverished. That represents a still potentially volatile situation. Remember our bright hopes for investment in the newly “democratic” Russia in the early 90’s? Well, organized crime, corruption, and a resurgent nationalism in Russia dampened that hope very quickly.
For Americans heavily invested abroad, the risks are greater than ever, as the world situation is still very tenuous. To assume a Brazilian renaissance is the goose laying the golden eggs could turn out to be nothing more than spoiled egg nog should an unforeseen event cause a downturn in the Brazilian economy.
America is the future. After several years of hard lesson learning, suffering, and humiliation, the arrogance and smugness of the American people will finally break. It will get pretty grim around 2012, even look hopeless. But, the American spirit will rise again, and a renewed, humbled populace will return to the classic model of America as the visionary leader of the evolution of mankind, both spiritually and economically.
The renewed population will base its new vision, not on never-ending mindless consumption and materialistic consumerism, but on sustainable systems based in naturalistic methodologies. The well being of the human being will finally figure into the equation, replacing the capitalistic greed with the bottom line as the only consideration that has brought about the insidious destruction of the dignity of man.
What good is all the money in the world if your divorce rate is over 60%, one third of your population is stricken with cancer, and your youth are afflicted with depression, mania, and drug-addiction?
But a renewal can only take place after a cleansing. The old untenable thinking must be purged, and that will happen only after much suffering and depravation (Americans are a smug and arrogant people) of material pleasures.
But, the future is full of promise, as this renewed and humbled people will arise once more, now led by true values and a spiritual vision, to truly lead mankind to new heights heretofore undreamed of, realizing that a man is not to be measured by what he owns but by what he is.
It has been said, “invest in China and Brazil”…but what specific sectors?
Have recently bought i Shares all asia index ex Japan and i Shares Brazil Etf which tracks Brazils leading stocks. Am down about 10%-15% on each, but plan to increase my position over time on weakness.I feel long term prospects for both offer more growth potential than the US stock market. John
Martin,…. surely with your background, and particularly at this point in time, you know that a few US sectors may be bought by agressive investors, while indeed many sectors and particular US stocks should be avoided by all – and then there are those ever existing “short” opportunities. In any event, I hope your thoughts are not affected by any survey such as this. I do hope you will make it to the Orlando M.S. – just a short drive from Jupiter. Regards, “J”
I’m trying to limit equities (in any form) to no more than 20%. I’m still with ST bonds and trying to build cash/equivalents to at least 50%. My big thing right now is trying to choose which ETFs (which I prefer over stocks) to go for by developing a criteria list. Those that meet the criteria will be chosen. I’d love to hear some ideas re: criteria.
Bill
I expect the BRIC countries to continue leading the pack. But Russia is corrupt and the government is meddlesome. India has very poor infrastructure and is barely (at best) ready to enjoy consumer driven growth. China is creating consumer driven growth (# 1 in the world in automobile units in 2009) but markets are obscure, for example none of the reports I’ve seen regarding the # 1 auto sales numbers addresses truck sales which is at least as revealing about the country’s activity levels. In China accounting rules are probably bent and statistics may be unreliable; capital allocation through a system of cronyism is inefficient. That leaves Brazil as the only country that approaches financial transparency and operates in a fairly efficient way with little political risk.
I think all 4 countries stocks will provide above average returns (compared to S&P 500) but I overweight Brazil among the 4.
There are several other countries that I expect will out perform S&P 500 as well. The resource rich countries – Chili, Peru, Australia, and South Africa come to mind. Several other developing countries – Indonesia, Viet Nam, Mexico, South Korea, Philippines – are also likely to out perform S&P 500 as well, especially net suppliers to one or more BRIC countries.
While I believe in the above projections investment diversity is key so I also invest in developed nations of Europe and North America. It is important to remember that a small improvement in GDP in these regions is a lot of money much of which will fall to companies’ bottom line, and provide a boost to earnings, which raises company values exponentially.
If GDP increases in the US and most other countries than the transportation sector is also likely to out perform S&P 500 especially railroads and ocean freight shippers.
Some commodities and precious metals may out perform the S&P 500 – potash, gold, silver, and copper. These may also be regarded as an inflation hedges.
Most of these areas can be satisfactorily addressed through low cost ETF’s. Where ETF’s miss the mark, investment in a few market leader companies in a particular commodity may be a better way focus investments.
The wild card is the strength of the dollar. My expectation is that it will stay about the same or more likely continue to weaken. My view is that the US has created or will create more inflation than other countries have or will to ride through the great recession. If the USD exchange rates stay the same relative growth rates of economies will dictate returns. If the USD weakens a boost to investment values in other countries will occur. USD strength could off set or even eliminate the gains in foreign markets so watch relative currency values very closely when monitoring investment performance.
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:12 AM
Dwight, let me comment on the points you’ve made about BRIC countries:
Point #1. BRIC countries leading the pack: That certainly was the case in 2009. But just bear in mind that this could be a double-edged sword: In bear markets they could lead in the other direction — down. So it could make sense to take profits off the table on strength and add on weakness.
Point #2. Russia corrupt. This is one reason we have not recommended it.
Point #3. India’s infrastructure poor. Agreed. But I think you need to analyze India almost as if it were two nations — a nation of the downtrodden and a nation of the rising middle classes. The latter alone has recently been enough to fuel dramatic growth.
Point #4. China markets obscure. True. But despite issues of press censorship, data reliability has had to improve in recent years in order to open up their financial markets.
Point #5. Brazil only BRIC with financial transparency, low political risk. We agree. My team and I have vested all four BRICs, and I have been to Brazil almost every year since I was six. From everything we’ve seen, there’s no question that, in Brazil’s south, the infrastructure and institutions are more like America’s or Western Europe’s than those of any other BRIC country. (Brazil’s North and Northeast are another matter entirely, but they represent a much smaller fraction of the economy.) This year’s presidential election could bring the opposition party to power, but in terms of economic policy, changes are likely to be minimal. — Martin
Sure wish I could say that US stocks are the way to invest-sorry not now!!! Looks as if China, India, Brazil, & Australia are the way to go! U choose-maybe not in that order!
I believe investing in dominant BRIC companies offers good potential for investmen gains
in 2010. This could be through an EFT that includes some stocks from these countries.
There is also a Fixed(Equity) Indexed Annuity from an A+ rated insurance company,
that offers a 100% Participation Rate, generous Caps on earnings and a farrago of
Stock Indexes for investment consideration. This annuity is a four year walk-a-way, thus
debunking the criticism of tying your money up for a long period of time. The Fixed
Account on this particular annuity would out perform any 4 or 5 year CD and certainly
any Money Market Mutual Fund. Of course, one should have a sufficient amount of cash
for liquidity purposes.
A couple of years ago I took Tony’s advice and bought some Chinese stocks. I sold half of’em at a loss before they hit bottom on their pullback and kept half of what I “thought” were the stronger of the lot purchased “hoping for a RISE AND THEN TO BREAK EVEN AT LEAST. I’m still waiting. My best “guess” technically is that the US market will pull back to about the Dow 9000 (maybe slightly lower) when inflation will kick in and people will use the stock market as a hedge against inflation.
Right now aside of some commodities, I don’t like ANY stocks.
Every country in the world looks bad as far as debt and keeping honest accounts.Any investment that is in bonds or any type of paper is as good as a politicians word or hand shake. Investments are only as good as a mans word and his keeping the ten commandments,in particular number eight,”thou shalt not steal”. Dont see foriegners being any better at above than we americans. Two companies that I have a high degee of confidence that they come close to the above criterion are “zn”zion oil, and “cef” central fund of canada. Own some CD’S but dont have much confidience that the banks or the FDIC will in the end meet the criteria of SAFETY,LEQUITY,AND YIELD,let alone honesty
Does anybody care about Senior citizens who want to keep their money out of the Stock Markets???
Our investment income, thanks to Ben Bernake who must be fired as Fed Chief, has been reduced to crumbs so fine that the birds cannot even find them.
Wall Street is not the only street in the USA – and thankfully so. Wall Streeters like to eat corn and beef though.
I believe this country is GONE! It is only a matter of time when the financial earthquake hits us all.
In addition to Chi, Ind. Bra. & Aus. I would add Canada – a stable govt. and financial system – good source for raw materials and oil/gas.
Does it make any difference where we invest our money. I will venture to bet that less than 1% of the individuals here made any money in 2009 via the market. An interesting post this morning from “Free Money Finance” states “If we do make a successful investment, we confuse luck with skill. It was easy in early 2000 to delude yourself that you were an investment genius when your Internet stock doubled and then doubled again.” And if we leave our cash in a 2% dividend fund or or bank, are we going to really believe it belongs to us. With the 401ks now reporting, each of our savings to the Feds, I think our (the Feds) deficit spending is already based on the peoples savings, be it in a bank or fund.
I know I for one used to think how smart I was, that before 2008, I consistantly made 25% to 30%. I became overly confident in myself, and it became clear that no matter what you did it ended in a loss. Then thought “ok the pros know more than I do”. Guess what, I found out I could lose my money just as well as the pros can. Before I had no one to blame except myself when I picked wrong. Maybe one of the BRICs is the best place, but I didn’t trust these countries before 2008, and I sure don’t trust them any more now. Its not like the human rights attrocities never happened in China, and now we are willing to jump feet first into the fire with them. I don’t think so. Or what about the Russian Mafia that has its hand in most Russia’s business . The list goes on and on. “…but as for me and my house, we will serve the LORD.”
Sorry guys, but I’ve tried your way, and it doesn’t work any more. I would prefer to now invest in the kingdom of God, and that is where my trust will now reside.
I’m an Australian living in the UK for the last few months. Things in the UK are very cheap compared to previous visits. I assume anyone visiting from one of the countries that has not had a devaluation (due to leaving the printing presses on) would have noticed this, this I believe has set-up an opportunity for the UK & USA to export their way out of trouble on the one hand and be more competitive in providing products in their home markets. The double dip everyone seems worried about will only take place if governments start raising taxes and inventing new ones to pay off the foreign debts (much better to devalue to my mind) and it keeps everyone at home buying local produce. (keep the printing presses running)
possible final top 1150 s&p shorting gold silver buying the dollar …i’m highly leveraged us stocks and inverse etf’s and put options only problem is i have been short since nov, lol i believe we are possibly in middle of correction maybe down to june highs then market rally untill early spring … as of now we seem to be in a world wide correction short term…
Not to sound schizophrenic but could you shed some light on who we your subcribers represent as a demographic. Would you say we form a skewed opinion one way or another?
My logic tells me foreign is the place to be. My gut says something “illogical”
is about to present itself and in the short term anyway damage some foreign portfolios particularly Chinese stocks. I’m sensing a growing hubris and too many advisors too sure of themselves. Make generous use of stops and other risk management. I sense a similar short term fate for gold. Bill A
I would rate foreign stocks about 7. I would invest in China,India and Brazil.
Hello Martin
I am in process of getting out of dollar assets for the most part. I think Brazil, India, Taiwan, S Korea, Singapore and Canada are the more solid choices now. Also China, but with caution. I have large percentage of assets in gold, silver, both physical and stocks.
Also intend to invest in other commodities within the next few months, ie agriculture, oil. Some MLPs look attractive as well.
If in US market, I would stick with one or two good solid companies with history of 3%,or better, yields. My 2 large cap US stocks are XOM and PM. Thank you for your daily columns.
Since mid-January 2010, I bought some mutual funds like AACFX, GEMFX, ICHKX, IFCAX, PSPFX, TCWAX, USCOX, and ETF’s:FXI, PGJ, CHIQ and IAE. After January 21 up to today, I lost about five thousand. Should I hold on until June or the end of the year? Or sell them?
I am approximately 32% in a gold mutual fund, 15% cash, and balance in Fairhome and Yucktman mutual funds. I think I need an emerging mutual fund.
Germany is the only country in Europe to invest. Stocks are very volatile at the moment. The FTSE350 isint very exciting and carrying a lot of risk. China seems to have the pulse of the world. Real estate at the moment in Germany is best.
when everybody runs do you follow them? Put your money in the whole market index.
Since I’m committed long-term to U.S. stocks, I see even greater opportunity outside, especially China, Australia, and Brazil. My various stock and mutual fund investments give me exposure to these areas, as well as other countries.
That said, the investment world currently is still fundamentally based in U.S.. So, as the U.S. stock market goes, so will the other markets in the short run. At least for the next year or two.
I know that this is a foreign stock topic for now.
I know that half the Weiss folks say one thing and the other take the opposite. Bullish on the dollar (Ryan) bearish (Edelson)
And then there’s the few on the fence.
ONE question begs at me.
If this is really Japan on steroids and 0% is for an extended period, then we got to zero allot faster than Japan..then, thanks to this Fed Res act Japan is squarely a scenario on the table.
What was the best performing asset class over 20 years there?
G o v e r n m e n t Bonds. Everywhere else over the last lost decade, the BEST investments were hard assests.
Anyone hear anyone else recommend Treasuries? I have heard only one firm. What say you?
IF THE ECONOMY LOOKS LIKE IT IS PICKING UP,THEN IT IS SAFE TO BUY STOCKS.
IT MAY BE 1 MONTH TOO EARLY TO TELL.
Martin, Currently I am invested in commodites, a lot in Gold Mines some I’ve had a long time at a good price. I am highly invested in Asian stocks which I feel are not doing too good either. I have a lot of money tied up in options which are not doing well as yet. So currently I am feeling overwhelmed by the current market, don’t know where I should invest.
Stocks from India & China might be helpful although Ihave yet to buy.
I feel like chicken little, you know, the sky is falling, the sky is falling. I think that comes from reading to many financial news letters. Find a good one and stick with it. Good luck on your quest. It has taken me years to narrow it down to the one that has your,our,mine interest at heart, and not just trying to get you to shuck out big bucks for part 1 of what turns out to be a 10 part play. Wish I had known that sooner. If your reading this, this is the place you can stop looking, you’ve found it. WDM
First, thank you for your timely and informed advisories, which I follow with interest. This writer believes the U.S. market in all but ESSENTIAL goods is limited and shall decline. The demographics are bad with an increasing portion of the population at or approaching “senior” status. Such persons do not buy a lot in “consumer goods” as have much of what is wanted. Secondly, there is considerable fear from this segment of the market as older citizens tend to be very security conscious. Thirdly, the tax rate will have to be much higher just to offset the lower income levels due to unemployment and “retiree’s.
Thus, it follows that one must invest in areas (Asia for example) where the population is at the stage that we were 10 or 15 years ago. My area of study is the Philippines, as it is stable, generally favorable to the western world and investor with a dynamic growth rate, decent resources, good educational system and “friendly” governmental attitude. I might add it is a great place to retire as communications have much improved. It is now “fly over” country thus not watched closely with opportunities.
Finally, as the the U.S. and Europe. This is a matter of seeing virtually all funds consumed by health care, debt management, and taxes. All largely non productive from a world trade prospective. I prefer to invest in growth and areas of the future.
Thank you for the kindness of reviewing my observations and keep up the excellent research, interviews as well as timely and understable reporting. GJF
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:13 AM
I have U.S. friends who live in the Philippines and Philippine friends who live here. I have studied its economy, history, culture and national language. I agree the country has made major strides and that the opportunities there have been largely overlooked. Just be careful not to underestimate the potential for political upheaval. By the way, Tony Sagami was just in Manila where he posted a short video intro to the Philippines. (See http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/philippines-the-unpolished-diamond-of-asia-5-8135.) He’s not recommending you rush out and buy their shares. But he’s definitely doing a good job exploring the possibilities. — Martin
China and India have the greatest growth potential for 2010. The major question mark is these countries safety
Don’t trust the stocks of companies I know and grew up with, so how can one trust the stocks of foreign companies that the have never seen and probably never heard of in unstabe countries with governments more corrupt than ours.
Al
I prefer to be out ot the markets. Investments of choice are China and Tibet. One must do the research and afterwards do more research. Don’t walk away from your positions. Set mental stops or write theM where they are visable while online. If sell stop is reach sell at marker. If what I am doing is unprofitable, get out of this very risky market and follow Martins advice.
If you can’t touch it, see it or feel it, stay away from it.
Do what you know. Look at the company first hand,
Shell oil is international = same fuel world-wide.
Check the balance sheet, look for debt. I have a greek
dry shipper = FREE.
Wisch
Personally I beleave in the cycle theroy, Natural Gas, precious metal will be cycling to the upside. If we are diligent we can cash in then cash then quickly take your profits then wait for another trend to form. Bear in mind each deep recession was followed by another 20-40% down turn, there is no doubt it is coming the question is when! The way to play this is to put 10% stop limit on all your stocks and keep your eye I on the dollar this will be your canary.
I regard some southeast Asian, and many east Asian and Brazilian stocks, to be attractive. My largest concern is avoiding the problems associated with having any stocks when the American market does its next major correction. I have seen before that this will drag down all stocks in which Americans invest, even the good ones, due to knuckleheads still buying on margin, for example. I would prefer to be in cash then and rebuy my list of best choices at better prices. Good plan; my problem has always been timing. Most probably, I will get caught (again) fully invested and take a long time (again) to dig out of the pits. I hate to set sell stops in my broker’s system, but I can’t think of any other way to get out promptly if things go south. I can check my investments once a day, at best.
I’m about 90% invested in foreign stock. I believe it was Tony Sagami who wrote that 80% of the best performing stock in the past couple years has been foreign stock. It makes sense to invest in that which is growing, not declining.
Hello Martin:
You do not mention much about gold & silver. On top of what I am holding for a couple of years, I purchased mining stocks in the last few months. What is your opinion on the future of gold & silver? I do value your opinion. Many thanks. BC
European markets are supported by gov spending, just like the US. Developing markets and resource – rich country markets are largely dependent on the developed world to buy their stuff, and these buyers are hurting. People are retrenching, paying down debt, and deflating money supplies and credit balances. This extra liquidity is buoying markets for now. I am in cash or short all markets, including foreign.
I belive that there are some great opportunities in Managed Limited Partnerships in the US along with select commodity plays. I would appreciate others’ thoughts on the above as to specific selections.
Hi,
I am Asian living in Singapore and I spend a 5 good years in China.
I am a trader and basically now i am just trading asian markets in singapore and hong kong.
Well after reading all that…… the lottery looks damn good, doesn’t it.
Are the markets like God….. basically unknowable???? Were looking into our crystal ball and pulling wise faces…… collective guessing. Not comfortable with that ladies and gentlemen.
Being contrairian means betting on the fallability of the mob. Betting against the pundits of any given era. Refusing to be led. The mob has taken such a hard blow to the head that it is sitting dazed and aimless. It’s not even doing anything for us to be contrairian about. Is there anyone out there who can lead us out of this????
There is no doubt that our investments should be in China and other BRIC countries plus the Pacific Rim. Nothing in this country as far as I can see is worth the risk or support. Especially the financials.
I have my investments covered in the countries above along with silver and gold.
After reading some of the above blogs, I´m even more convinced that I better stay out of all markets. People just never learn and must like to continue to lose their hard earned money. It was not so long ago that all these wonderful “emerging markets ” were all called “third world countries ” and hardly anyone would invest a penny in any one of them.There has obviously been a lot of economic development and many people have made money, but many have also lost money. Now they are in vogue and everyone is an expert on them. Money has poured into companies in these countries through mutual funds and sophisticated investment vehicles, but can one trust the governments or the companies ? Investors in Russia got crushed a few years ago. When markets start going down, the money will leave much faster than it went in and people are going to get crushed again. I still prefer to keep my money in CASH or CASH EQUIVILENTS until the markets tank. Then bargains will be easy yo find for anyone that has CASH……The few people who had cash in March 2009 and were not stuck with big losses could have thrown a dart at the Wall St. Journal and made money with almost any company wherever the dart landed……..PATIENCE..PATIENCE..PATIENCE !!!!!!
Respected Dr.Weiss,
It cannot be said that US is total dump.At one time yuo tell us that $ will be up while some news it as down, but not total dump.
I agree to the Asian markets which are developing faster , if you look deeply and study as to what is happening their on rules and regulations follow up etc.
I have had the best success investing in Brazil mutual funds 89% YTD return. I am also investing in pacific rim countries with aboyt a 29% YTD return. I am interested in investing in gold mutual funds, but do not know where to find the best funds.
Emerging markets will outperform in both directions IMO. The harder part to the Question is how to invest in Emerging and Frontier markets? The problem with ETF’s like EWZ, IDX, EWY, FXI is they tend to trade in lock step with the US market’s B/C they are traded on the NYSE. I would like to trade the oversea’s markets directly, and if I could the area’s I like best would be Turkey, SE Asia, Latin America.
For now I trade EWZ, IDX, until there is a greater international trading ability outside the US markets.
My personal opinion is, there is no absolute answer in investment decision in respect of choice of financial instrument to be invested in and places. Is it all depend where the smart money goes to and what financial instrument is chosen. We just have to learn to be at the right place and at the right time!
I invest the Majority of my Portfolio in 401K, to avoid capital gains taxes.
I have found the Fidelity (FNARX) to be decent, but pulled out recently.
I am seeing signs of the bottom falling out, once again.
I am now 40% Fidelity Money Market / 60% PIMCO (PTRAX)
In my Brokerage Account, I recently bought some (EXXI) and The Small Cap Brazil ETF (BRF).
I am keeping an Eye on ETF (ILF) Latin American Fund. Evaluating the Holdings.
I’m already invested in India. I have been there 4 times in the last 11 years and I have seen a change in that span. Much more construction, development was seen. Drugs, oils, wireless communication, steel, etc.
Asia, South America, and Canada/Australia – commodities, energy and food
Global US – big dividend payers with a wide global coverage XOM, PG, CL, YUM, MCD, CAT
IRAs 60% foreign stocks 40% foreign bonds
Individual stocks – 25% domestic , 25% foreign stocks 50% global/international
10% precious metals
25% cash equivalents
buy and hold DRIP investor by and large
5% or so speculative nano/micro caps – US or Chinese
SLEEP LIKE A BABY – patience and a long term view are a NECESSITY
My advice — if you can’t tolerate the ride stay out of the car
One more quick thought – forget trying to time the market
Pick an amount and invest regularly – like clockwork – dollar cost average
Be a machine keep the emotions out have faith in yourself
I made money last year 50% and this year will be better yet and stocks aint where to grind out the gains. the prognosticators are often right but to early on the call. Luke feel the force. Where you make your money you are a expert so invest within your own area of expertise. you should be able to make the correct call 4 out of 5 times.
i
How would I rate foreign markets? Dangerous, many are not transparent. I would go for a trade but watch it like a hawk with the finger on the mouse.
Where am I invested? Currently mostly in cash or short maturity CDs and bonds in US or CDN Dollars. I have few stocks of North American companies, mostly those recommended in your newsletters.
Regards, Anthony.
Weiss spokesmen are continually advocating reducing our exposure to US $ dominated investments. In yet, how many recommendations in Dividend Superstars, Safe Money or Wealth Report are investments that reside on the Canadian Stock Exchange, the Australian Stock Exchange, or others. If there are foreign investment recommendations they are US $ Dominated ETF’s, ADR’s, or US $ dominated Mutual Funds. Only the Asian Report has a few investment recommendations listed on the Hong Kong exchange. Martin, you have a 2nd home in Brazil but we don’t here much about Brazilian BRIC investment opportunities? How about some advice about Australian opportunities on the ASX instead of buying FSUMY how about buying FMG.ASX? What about the Perth Mint? Peter Schiff’s EuroPacific touts foreign dividend opportunities, let’s hear about them from your Dividend Superstars. Getting an account with Interactive Brokers is simple and affords great buying opportunities in foreign exchanges at very low commission rates!
My Broker is strong on a few stocks, she calls it gambling. She is strong on Gold ETF’s and Gold and Silver Bullion in hand. What say all you smart guys? Townes
I feel that India & Brazil markets will be a good balance of safety and returns. The China market may have better returns potential, but it may be difficult to invest in due to lack of transparency. Other markets like Indonesia, Phillipines also hold good potential.
Pretty interesting blog you’ve got here. Thank you for it. I like such themes and anything that is connected to them. I definitely want to read a bit more on that blog soon.
As earnings continue to match or beat expectations there will be a shift into US stocks which will also help the US Dollar
South Africa (RSA) is due to host the 2010 Soccer World cup and much of the infrastructure, and stadiums are being built to be in time for mid 2010 event.
I would say SANRAL (South African National Road Agency Limited) and Raubex which have landed some of the deals to build the Gautrain, road upgrades, Airport expansions in Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban, etc.
Australia has come through the recent global crises very well. Therefore it stands to reason that the future of Australian stocks is close to the top of countries in which to invest. The recent discovery of immense quantities of lng plus its proximity to the fastest developing countries in the world will also be very helpful to Australian business overall. As this thought is mainly addressed to American subscribers, i must add the rider that i am not sure if American investors can get Australian shares.
Yes, from 1 to 10. US stocks are only 1 or 2. Market in USA,Canada is too much speculative and is going against investitors.
What has moving the market today?
High Frequency trading and options?
If the people bet for PUTS than they will make DOW 50,000 points.
And oposite if somebody buy calls then watch the crash.
I said that DOW will going to the end of Year about 6,000. Period.
Now we have one leg up to Feb/18 next from Sept/20th and crash in Nov/Dec.
I am London based and I am a hold on US stocks most of which are held through Eton Vance.
You ask too widely based questions. ‘Foreign’ is just too big to make sensible noises.
I would not touch UK retail and a large part of the UK is a mess. I have a heavy investment in Australia which I think to be the most stable of the ‘western’ countries. They seem to have weathered the recent storms well. I have been in and out of Brazil and have been highly selective in India. I do not like China because of the strong political influence.
That sums me up in about 100 words.
I DO NOT SEE ANY PANIC ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD –ALL GOVTS ARE FULL UP TO THEIR NOSE WITH DEBT–FOOD PRICES ARE SOARING WITH NO END IN SIGHT !
SO THE ONLY PLACE TO INVEST IS INYOURSELF TILL THE TIME COMES FOR INVESTING —DO NOT GET SUCKED INTO THE TRAP OF BRIC COUNRIES INVESTING THEY ALL ARE RICHLY VALUED ALREADY
SO SLEEP AND WAIT FOR THE DOOMS DAY —MAY BE SOME TIME FROM HERE!
Hi! You wouldn’t divorce your wife if she overspent would you? I say hang in there for the long haul we started out as a poor nation if we did it once we can do it again take a breather and get back in the game virginia
I think that all stocks around the world are basically the same – the good, the bad and the indifferent – the only thing that sets stocks apart are their ability to grow and thrive together with good management and an acumen for profits.
Currently, the greatest problem is deciding on the currencies that they trade in and the political and economic climate that you are investing your hard earned monies into.
My best bet for current investment would be Australia,China and Brazil – they all appear to have stable currencies and their top companies have expanding markets.
Most of my external investments are in companies that have strong trade with China.
I have been trading on the Dollar weakness by going long precious metals including copper, but lately the dollar has been rallying and I am taking a shellaking.
I have to agree with those who are leery of US stocks–I am hoping Tony Sagami is correct with his evaluations.
If we don’t buy US stocks and invet our money elsewhere – china, etc, how will our economy ever start to grow again? The people who have the money to invest are the same people who got us into this mess. If everyone jumps ship now, other economies will grow becuase they have our money and we will just fade away. A simplistic view but I think an accurate one.
I have actually lost all of my stocks and in 2008. At the same time, I also lost my job as a teacher. But by some help from heaven, I have money to invest in the very near future. I have been watching the Money Wisdom of Mr. Weiss because of this. I shall need all the help I can get from a person like you. In fact I am ordering a small portion to be wired to my account in the US JUST to pay off bills that have accumulated through June 2008 until the present. I plan to invest my cash abroad. For this reason, I have been diligently reading your Money & Markets e-mail, and studying them and researching them. They, I believe, are the most accurate to the reality in the US. From what is going on now in the US, i believe stocks get a D-rating for an investment. After losing everything in 2008, I don’t think I will even consider investing on anything in the US even if I am living here.
I feel that Australian stocks have a good chance of riding the Chinese and Indian demand for resources for the forseeable future. Australia is also a stable, well regulated economy and one of the few to avoid a recession in the GFC.
How would you rate foreign stocks in the current environment?
Foreign stocks I feel are a bit tricky. I think it’s foolish to belive any one market is going to be “safe” at the moment. I do absolutly love the Chinese utilities at the moment. B/c they are 10 to 20 years behind the growth of China’s cities they’ve got a ways to go. The market isn’t moving much b/c I think it is generally overlooked. But if I had the money I’d be all over the Chinese utilities market! Own a majority share in just one and it’s a gold mine.
Also I feel the yen will stay strong at the moment. The thin is if you’ve not already invested when it was down I’d say it’s pointless now b/c you missed the bus (that two week jump was incredible). But the US market has some great hot spots if you stay alert
Where in the world are you investing now? Which countries do you feel will provide the greatest profit potential with the lowest risk in the first half of 2010?
Until we see a deliberate and significant start to the reduction of dollars in the US economy, I believe not more than 20% of ones assets should be in the U.S. stock market. The ultra wealthy (NW >= $1 Billion) have always sought safe havens and stores of value. Vehicles now appear to include discounted entry into natural resource assets (energy, precious metals), more stable foreign currencies (Brazil) and private alternative investments. Until the U.S. takes a more capitalistic turn, it is too dangerous to be totally invested here.
Martin Weiss Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Much has been said about the decline of capitalism in the U.S., and that is certainly an issue worthy of discussion. But what I think is even more important is the RISE of DEBTISM — borrowing replacing saving as the primary source of funding for individuals, businesses and government. — Martin
I pulled all my money out of stocks and put it all in gold and silver. I am not encouraged by the President’s speach lastnight, I believe I will just set it out for awhile….
I have all my 401k money in a 2020 fund at the present time, 40% stocks, 20% bonds and 18% international. I went to cash and short term treasuries in 12/07 so I missed the crash but earned almost nothing. I got back into the market in August and the returns have been good. However, I am very concerned about the deficits the government is running and it’s effect on long term growth. I’m giving serious consideration to moving more of my 401k money out of the market and into international stocks. I think once Bernanke starts raising interest rates this is going to really dampen earnings for quite some time.
Hello Martin,
I hate to do that to you but I’ll answer your question with a question!
I like the idea of foreign stocks but am naturally suspicious of China’s information propaganda. Are they creating bubbles to attract foreigner’s money to make up for their losses of he value of their US holdings( $us losing value?).
Cheers,
Pierre.
The BRICs are overdue for a healthy correction. Our US markets appear likely to be the catalyst, but don’t forget how volatile the Asian markets tend to be. After the usual nasty shakeout, though, I would put my money into their stocks before ours. We have a long, long way to go before we work our way out of our mess. Raise cash.
Mike
I think BRIC stocks have the greatest upside for the next several years, I have 20% of our portfolio in foreign stocks/ETFS and another 15% in emerging markets. Follow by an additional 20% in US Stocks with large value, the rest is in Cash and fixed income .
Looking at foreign markets is important right now, and in some cases, not risky like it once was. But investing wisely in some key US stocks is still an important option.
Hi Everybloody,
A view from East Devon, I consider that property prices in the southwest of England are about 30-40% over priced still, sellers are terrified of ‘loosing’ money on their property so are putting their houses on the market still at or just below july 07 prices [the peak here]. Although purchasers are offering below the selling price and some transactions do seem to be taking place. I tend not to believe anything the large building societies belch out about house prices. Until these ridiculously high prices are worked through the British system and the first time buyers can buy with 3.5x annual earnings houses prices again the british economy will stagnate. I estimate another 5-6 years should see the next bottom out. keep up the good work guys and please take care with your recommendations cos alot of people are going to loose more money.
A bit scary because of government interference. How long you think it takes china to approve and construct a nuclear generation plant, probably less than it takes us to an approval for one. Has anyone ever been lost in a nuclear accident other than at chernobal, Russia. Less meddling would help the jobs and encourage investment. Toby
Foreign stocks/ current environment: more attractive than US, but not extremely attractive in general at this moment. About a 5 or 6 on scale.
Which countries: Asia ex Japan in general, Latin America after it corrects, Canada, and the Scandanavian countries.
Allocations are tricky. Use Toyota for example. Japanese company, sells cars in India, China, Japan, US, etc., buys parts from Vietnam, Indonesia, US, etc., just signed a deal for lithium production in Chile, raw materials from Brazil, Australia, etc., manufactures in …. you get the idea. One company can give you exposure you may or may not want or be comfortable with. All is not always as it seems.
I don’t think any foreign stocks will be good in 2010. When the U.S. market goes into freefall, it will take the rest of the world with it. Unless I’m going short or buying inverse ETF’s like EEV, I expect the vmajority of my funds will be in U.S. Cash as long as the dollar is strong. When it rolls over, perhaps bearish U.S.D. ETF’s. I’m looking for a bottom in 2011 or 2012. Perhaps then those Emergings will again be the leaders (If anybody is buying anything then)
I usually think longer term and get some foreign ETF’s like Vanguard all world except U.S. plus a few single country ETF’s and gold, silver, and energy producers.
Foreign stocks? I don’t like them.
can you tell me if everbank in florida is a good safe bank to buy foreign cd’s , is it easy to do transactions in the United States, does any budy have bad feelings about this bank?
I’m beginning to wonder who all these foreign companies are going to sell their products to? Even high flying China will have trouble selling their toxic,short lasting or don’t work to begin with products in a global economy that is deleveraging.
1/28/10
RE: Mr. Weiss, I think the (BRIC) Countries are pretty safe. I don’t trust the U.S.
economy to invest in NOW. Larry Edelson has me hooked on (All Natural Resource Co)
such as lithium, gold, silver, copper, platinum & (1) oil Co only due to the Volitility.
I’m VERY leary in investing in the Markets or short or long Term Treasury’s. It would
be nice if You or Larry could give us some (Natural Resource Co.), (Penny Stocks) to
invest in. Mr Weiss, could you PLEASE tell me if China is in a BUBBLE now???? Please
send me an email when you get a chance. Thanks so much for your knowledge. John
Last year I was fully invested in Far East funds (except Japan) and did reasonably well. Over the last month and the consistent falls across all markets, my investments have droped by 2% on their November values, so I decided to get out of the markets, go fully into cash and wait and see. Stock markets are showing too much volatility for my liking and I can see a negative trend developing, so I will sit and watch in the aisles for the time being…
I feel that foreign stocks are FOREIGN. If I can no longer trust in the way we do things in this country, why would I feel more secure with foreigners, where is the guarantee that my investments are safe in the hands of people who hate us politically and want to take our power away from us as world leaders?
PLEASE, straighten me out on this. Where am I not connecting the dots? It seems that by investing in foreign stocks, we are undermining ourselves. Is it really “everybody for themselves”?
Time IS money, we’ve all heard that, right? I live in the USA, I intend to spend all my time here, it’s my home. That goes for my money also.
I reside in UK and I am investing here, but not a big amount. A few days ago the government made an anouncement that the UK is out of the recession with 0.1% growth in their economic statistic release every month. I think the outlook in UK is every uncertain due to few factors in the coming months.
Foremost is the coming general election(June 2010?) and the outcome is anyone guess. Hence any pronouncement of economic direction,strategy or policy will not be well received by investor.
The UK budget deficit is huge and exceptional compare to any in the past. To overcome the short term pain the government is printing money.
Before there can be any growth or sustained growth , whoever form the next government will have to cut the deficit and that means less public expenditure and higher taxes. In the next few years the outlook is definitely uncertain as far as the equity market is concerned.
For investor looking to invest in Uk will have to look in the medium or long term. There were some companies which have strong fundamentals and have come out leaner and stronger compare to others. These companies were able to hold their ground and when the next cycle come I think their prospect for growth and profitability are enormous and this will reflect in their share price.
Best wishes,
Gerald
Australia and Brazil for starters.
Emerging markets have done well for me the last several weeks. I will be cautious now and may sell what I have soon. I’m not making money in most of what I have now, which is overweighted in metals and energy. I sold about 1/3 of my stocks today. Guess I’ll be conservative for the short term. Think the down market now is mainly because of the temporary strong dollar.
I would like to know more about foreign stock that pays dividends with little risk
there will be always a market to play, up or down any time.
you just need vision, timing and picking skills.
when you don’t have these, just hire a profi you believe in.
Most US citizens do not see very clearly what is happening in their own economy; they can’t see the forest for the trees. An outsider can see it more clearly. Canadians see it clearer than most because we are so close and our economies are so intimately entwined. The US is Canada’s biggest trading partner and Canada is the US’s biggest trading partner. If the economy of the US goes down the toilet then Canada’s will soon follow.
Foreign stocks that I own:
I, at present, only own one US stock: but own three Chinese stocks. Remember, a US stock is a foreign stock for me. I’ve been following numerous Chinese, Brazillian, Chilean, Australian etc. stocks on the TSX (very convenient) but I’m expecting the s*** to hit the fan any day now. When it does EVERYTHING is going to tumble.
On Friday 29th Jan. I moved all of my stops up tight.
Hi Martin,
I’m very interested in owning foreign stocks, preferably held in a foreign brokerage account. Although the US and Western economies are continuing to deteriorate, I believe that the Asian markets are poised for continued long-term growth. As a result of the deterioration in the West and growth in the East, I expect a large capital influx from West to East over at least the next 5-10 years. In addition, foreign stocks represents an asset which is decoupled, to some degree, from the problems inherent here in the US economy.
My thought; eventually there has to be high inflation. WHY? In order to pay off the national debt. (It has always been that way) Just think, an example, how much was a car in 1950 and the price today?
Invest in China, FXI, PGJ, BIDU. Buy EWT, EWH, EWS also.
and Brazil, Chile. CH, ILF, EWZ, CPL. Australia, BHP, EWA.
No India or Russia. NO to Euro or Europe, or Greece. NO to US stocks, especially financials. Yes to BRK.b , AAPL, IBM, MCD, PG, CL, WMT, YUM
Rest of money, 50% in Vanguard short term bonds and cash.
We vacationed for 23 days in China in Nov/Dec, from Beijing,(same time as OBAMA) Xian, Yangtse, Wuhan, Chongquing, HuongShou, Guillin, to Shanghai, Hongkong and Macao. We were impressed with the infrastructure, the roads, tunnels, highways, bridges, trains and all means of transportation, bullet trains, ships, and ports. Sea of skyscrapers, 50 to 100 stories. Very modern. They are definitely over and above the development in the US. NYC is nothing. It is a shame to even call it a city. I will not be surprized if they take over the #1 position in world finance soon. So invest in China, and or southeast asia. That is where the smart money is going. We need China. They do not need us. They are 4 times as many as we are. There is the market. New middle class in the millions. They do not care if we do not buy their chinese goods. Remember we owe them trillions of dollars. They have $trillions to buy us all. The sleeping dragon is now fully awake. Wait until it roars, we could not even roar back. SCARY.
I lost 10% real quick with BRIC ETFs and sold out!
I bought YUM for it’s participation in China’s middle class consumer buying surge and the safety of it’s U.S. corporate accounting standards.I am also in the Mathews China fund.
Mathews China fund and YUM for it’s participation in China’s comsumer surge and safe accounting standards.
I am scared to China and the orient (sans Japan) by what steps our Fed. Gov. has taken for the past several years! I still keep some US stocks, but my Asian picks far outpace them. I’m waiting for the pull-back in Gold and I’ll jump on it!
sir…i am relying on ;you for your advice. Not me. Bette Israel
I have heard from more than two sources that the derivatives market is 137 trillion and includes significant leverage, maybe 40 to 1, has not yet been unwound, but will need to be, unless real estate prices rebound, which is unlikely, although the Fed/Treasury is trying to reinflate them. Hence deflation seems the more likely senario.
Hi Martin,
Like Michael s said “The current bull market is nothing more than a bear trap.” It would be best to get off those(…..) stocks, on the current rise.
HI Martin,
Hello again, reading from the comments above, It sure gives me the gitters that US well……
Here I would like to mention, that US has oil locked up inside her belly which is much more than the Arab countries have ( which is gradually drying up ), which could turn the tables for US for another century. Also I believe, they have discovered gold in a big amount. It is high time that they should tap these two resources, to make them comfortable and bring back the good old economy.
I am avoiding Europian stocks. I am looding at Asian and South American stocks.
Is it wise to invest in international stocks now?
china and india need natural resources to grow and survive.australia and canada have abundance of wealth with small populations and relatively stabile governments. their currencies are sound. i like ewc ewa gld gdx with a fair amont of cash. on the side.