Thank you for the comments and suggestions you posted on my personal blog yesterday!
You can be sure that Larry, Richard and I are pulling out all the stops to make sure next week’s presentation of SOLVING THE TIMING MYSTERY Part Two gives you everything you need to buy lower and sell higher!
Please remember: If you registered for Part One, you’re already registered for Part Two. If not, just click this link to grab your free registration for Part Two now!
I don’t want to ruin the surprise — but I can give you a small sampling of what we’ll give you next Tuesday at noon Eastern time (9:00 AM Pacific, 5PM GMT) …
FIRST, we’re going to reveal the startling forecasts the Foundation’s cyclical analysis is now making for the rest of 2009 and through 2012 …
SECOND, we’re going to walk you through four massive cycles that will be converging to create “The Perfect Storm” — and how they will impact stocks … gold … silver … the dollar … and more over the next three years …
THIRD, we’re going to give you specific investment recommendations designed to help you harness the money-making power of these cyclical convulsions in these markets …
AND FOURTH, we’re going to show you how you can USE the Foundation’s specific “buy” and “sell” signals to sharpen your investment timing — both over the long term AND ALSO to help you profit from shorter term fluctuations along the way.
If improving your investment timing and profits is important to you, you will NOT want to miss a minute of this landmark event: MARK YOUR CALENDAR NOW: Solving the Timing Mystery Part Two is next Tuesday, June 30 at noon Eastern time (9:00 AM Pacific).
And in the meantime, be sure to click here and leave a comment and tell us what you need us to give you to make the second and final installment in this watershed series as helpful as possible for you!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
P.S. If you missed a portion of Part One, want to see it again, or would like to share it with a friend, here’s the link:
http://weiss.streamlogics.com/June22-09/
(Just remember: This is for Part One Only)
{ 63 comments… read them below or add one }
I think it is not just courageous but masterful what you are doing with no regards to your own personal gain…you will leave a leagacy as your father did. I was hoping that you could help to give a more short term approach to these skills as well as talk more about other markets i.e. currencies options.
God Bless
Good Job…want to hear more from the Cycles guy and less Larry
I find the info you presented very tantalizing and want to find out more. wish I had known about this foundation sooner.
500,000 seems like a lot to get started with your services, 50,000 would be more appropriate it seems to me. fred
Am having difficulty in manually downloading. Get diverted into your programmer’s blogs. It may be fault of a new printer being set up and installed.
Emily Obst
Looks really beautiful ! I wish you had a site with these cyclical graphs with buy and sell signals for currencies, commodities, market indexes, and so on. It is indeed very interesting. Many thank yous in advance.
Hi: I am interested in his cycles for the precious metals complex and are there any divergent signals between gold and silver showing one may potentially outperform the other.
Similarly, has he done any cycle work on the Gold/silver ratio itself?
Thank you.
Martin,
I understand that most of your seminars educate investors plus introduce a new product. In this case, I believe it makes good business sense to do two things: (1) Introduce a new product for aggressive traders where short term timing is critical and (2) Announce that ALL the Weiss newsletters, starting on July 4th (symbolically) will be using the model to supplement their recommendations and thus further improve the power of their buy and sell suggestions – and improve all subscribers’ financial independence.
Thanks for truly caring about everyone’s wealth preservation and growth!
Nice program Martin! However I went on the Foundation website and actually paid to get the reports on ETFs and stocks, and noticed that there were 2 basic problems I could see:
1) the peaks and troughs of the waves shown did not match the actual index or ETF’s all that well;
2) if you read two different reports, you got two totally different pictures. For example if you compare the forecast from one month to the next month, the waves are really very different. This surprised me, because the forecast cycle wave should not be subject to re-interpretation at a later date!
As a result I really don’t see how this method adds value to the process of market timing!
I appreciate your work Martin and this is in no way to demean them I am just puzzled as to what I see are fairly coarse inconsistencies
Hal Philipp
How about a forcast,corn, wheat, farmland?
They are at bubble highs right now!
Could not connecticut because of technical problems.
Is there a transcript available somewhere of highlights???
In part 2, I would REALLY be glad to find out how I can get specific buy/sell signals on specific stocks (not just sectors).
i will miss part 2, i must be at work. will it replay or can it be recorded, somehow?
How does the real estate market fit into these cycles? I heard that in the 40’s and 50’s that home values stayed the same for 20 years or so. Do you think that housing prices will stay down like previous years?
Dear Martin and Larry–thank you for providing information on a topic I have been concerned with for years!! timing and where we are in cycles.
Two things, however. I shudder at the thought of what this new service will cost, when people like us that are retired, on fixed income and afraid to invest too much, find that we may not be able to partake of the service. I recently subscribed to H S Dent who also does timing and his service only costs a couple hundred dollars a year–very affordable. Could you consider something like that too?
Secondly, I am getting so much contradictory information from this video, Larry’s newsletter etc. and now Brian Rich regarding the dollar. Brian claims we are in for a 6-7 year stronger dollar while everyone else is saying it will be falling. I would like to know the general direction for the next few years so we could plan accordingly and try to relax a bit thru all of this turmoil.
Thanks again,
Irene
Thank you for your time and effort. The information was excellent and timely.
Can you or Larry describe the software that Foundation for the Study of Cycles offers and which level would be appropriate for a single investor such as my self.
My intrest is your forecast and basis for forecast for the USD and gold. Thanks Rob Ronald
Thanks. Very interesting.
This is just a personal note… CYCLES (The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events) by Edward R. Dewey 1971 has been on my desk for many years. Finally, I may be able to put everything together. Whatever you present will be welcome. Your work is appreciated.
I have a previous appointment on June 30th at noon that I have to keep so I hope part 2 will also be available to replay. I’m hoping that since I’m 65 and now have under 50thousand to invest that I will be able to find the best and lest risky to make some interest since I now have the money in a money market that is making no interest after losing about 25 thousand. I don’t believe I can afford to be involved in risky investments at this time of my life and with so little money to work with. I’m really trying to education myself a little more in this area so I can make a wise decision regarding my financial future. Thank you so much for your seminar and God Bless you.
Yesterday was an eye opener and I look forward to part 2. I’m particularly interested in stop-losses. As your guest pointed out cycle lows and highs are inflection points and sometimes instead of reversing they may continue in their last direction so good stop-loss parameters need to be a part of any successful trading program. I hope you outline those parameters.
I look forward to the next edition of timing the market.
Martin
A number of questions struck me as I watched Part 1 of your timing presentation:
1. What would happen if a large number of people at the same time (more or less) would pull their money out of the market because they believed the cyclic predictions? To what extent would this create a self-fulfilling prophecy, or produce a totally unexpected and unpredictable financial crisis?
2. How is it possible for these cyclic turns to repeat themselves more or less predictably over decades or even centuries? That is, what is behind these cycles? Biology, psychology, cosmic influences largely independent of human volition and choice?
3. It’s one thing to predict long-term trends – by which I’m not admitting that I accept that this is really possible – but we, for the most part, live short-term. To say that a stock or an index is going to reach a high (or a low) around such and such a time would seem to me to be not of much use because of the vagueness of “around.” When we’re talking about 20-year and 60-year cycles a few months, or even a year or two, one way or another doesn’t make much of a difference, for the cyclic theorist. But it makes a big difference for the investor. The economic analysis of my current options guru with respect to increasing foreclosures (ALT-A resets), increasing unemployment, the radical decline in commercial real estate values (as epitomized by the failure of the second largest mall owner in the US, General Growth Properties, on April 16, 2009), and mounting credit card defaults – among other dire news – is quite convincing. And yet, his options recommendations, based on his analysis, has been an almost total bust over the last 3 or 4 months. He may be right, long-term, but short-term he’s breaking me.
4. At one point the fellow representing The Foundation for the Study of Cycles – sorry I’ve forgotten his name – talked about “inexperienced” or “unsophisticated” investors (I forget the exact expression he used) who in a cycle would not recognize whether they were facing a high (or a low) or a sudden flip-around where a high (or low) was expected and a low (or high) suddenly emerged (I don’t recall whether “flip-around” was the expression used). But if one takes the “around” predictions and the possibility of sudden, unexpected “flip-arounds” it seems to me any failure of prediction lamented by a losing investor could be “explained” (just as my options guru gives – unconvincing – explanations for his recent persisting failures, after having considerable success shoring the financial market in 2008).
Just a few thoughts – looking forward to Part 2.
EP Germain
martin armstrong !?,,,the greathest bull market in the history,,,,as i now you where interested in PRINCETON ECONOMICS ,,,,but THEY didnt allowed it!!!!all the best ,,,take care,,,exellent page,,,,i wish you all the best,,,,greetings from croatia… vilson..!!!
Hi,
I was not able to see the original seminar so had to watch later, and found it absolutely fascinating.
I have followed the UK housing market since 1952 (when I did my first mortgage valuation!) and in particular the Nationwide quarterly housing statistics which clearly show a cycle of around 20 years; 1952, 1972, 1988 (a bit early), and 2008.
I suspect that one contributor to the cycle might be called the “Generation Factor”. Lessons learnt by policy makers of the lending institutions at the time of one housing recession will be forgotten 20 years later when a new generation has taken over. Lessons learnt by policy makers today will probably be remembered by the next generation but in 60 years’ time? Personally I shall not be concerned by then, but my great grandchildren may very well be.
Until my retirement I was Lecturer in Valuation at Reading University, and I still have my lecture notes of 1995 when I pointed out the consequences of over-lending to second-years students (which most of them will of course have forgotten).
In 2005 I sent a submission to the UK Barker Review which was concerned with the supply of housing. In this I pointed out that supply was only part of the problem, and that mortgage policy of the institutions was an important factor. My comments were almost completely disregarded.
In August last year I made a suggestion about alleviating the problem of repossession and sent copies to several members of my profession who thought it had merit. I also sent it to several politicians, my Bank, a national newspaper and several other people. In all I had just two acknowledgments and no constructive comments!
I look forward to your presentation next week.
Kind regards.
I thought it was very interesting especially the past timing calls. I have to think however that the world is changing that both China, India and the Japanese could seriously change what has happend in the past and upset the “cycles”.
I’m still planning on tuning in next week Tue.
Alan Pringle
You are on target and I am impress with your cyclical analysis but, I have one comment. The symetrical shape of the curves representing the 20 year stock market cyclical analysis struck me as not representative. The stock market goes down a lot faster than it goes up and the slope of your curve therefore should be steeper when negative than it is when it is positive. This causes bull markets to be longer in time than a bear market. Have you tried changing your slope of the curves to reflect this and if so, did it result in an improved fit with the data? The time between a top and a bottom sould be shorter than the time between a bottom and a top simply because it takes longer for the market to rise than fall a given amount.
Hi Martin,
I enjoyed your Part # 1 of your presentation. I appreciate the panel and your research leads to a perfect storm scenario for the 12 yrs decline of US dollars to 2012. Apparently and strangely enough, it also very well coincides with other similar predictions about the year 2012 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y4EiFeTQ3s).
Considering the current scenario, could you please address the post-doomsday stats on global economy in particular, the US dollars? If we did successfully survive, I would be continued to be in the financial market and diversify my personal portfolios.
yes – hold after the market closes!
why are you insistent on holding while trading is open?
I would like you to discuss the causes of the cycles. Youi’ve touched on it, saying it is in nature, etc. But, I don’t think 12 week cycles on Apple Computer are part of nature. Sure you can show cycles for some things, but you can also create cycles by changing scales of tables, and things like that. I’m trying to make the connection between the cycles and fundamental analysis. Why are cycles occuring? What are the forces at work. For instance, I don’t like things today because the rise of Muslim militancy for instance, which is bad for democaracy and capitalism. Is our military spending getting too large for our economy? Is that a cause of a cycle?
Martin, you have here one faithful but distraught follower. I watched your previous webinar without problem at home in Australia but, thanks to the hopelessly inadequate British broadband [I'm in Oxford at the moment], I missed all but the opening words of yesterday’s insights. And it probably means I won’t catch much of next Tuesday’s either. This is leaving me very disappointed. Is there the slightest chance that the proceedings could be made available as an illustrated transcript, please?
Dr Martin Weiss, I cannot begin to tell you how exciting your first presentation was. I have five sons and we have formed a holding company and will pool our resources to invest. “Timing” is very important. Can not wait until next Tuesday. Thanks a million for Part One.
God bless,
Lou
Will your cycle timing information be available in print on line after your No. 2 presentation so it is possible to study it with our own market technical analysis? During the live broadcast, I can’t always take notes fast enough to record everything I want to refer back to later.
Thank you for sharing so much helpful research knowledge with the rest of us.
thanks martin and god bless
just went to say thanks for all your help
I enjoyed part I and found it very informative and plan to share part of the info. with my business students.
Like stated in a previous comment, you always present a seminar to introduce a product and, having less than $50,000 to invest, I wonder whether I will be able to afford the product and, due to my low level of investment expertise, how much risk it will represent to my portfolio.
Looking forward to part II on Tuesday.
Thank you
i use aol dial up. unfortunately this is not fast enoungh for your webcast . could you please do a printout so i and others can read your valuable reports???????
Thanks Martin,would like forecasts on short ,medium and long term cycles for gold,oil,usd index
and base metals,regards Robert.
1. How far down in time frames is this cycle analysis effective. Specifically, as a currency position trader I would be interested in cyclic behavior, if any, of currency pairs in regard to their weekly/monthly movements.
2. The example of Apple Computer seems a bit cherry-picked. The introduction of the iPod, revitalized that company and created a situation for cycle analysis to occur. No iPod, no cycles, just a downward spiral for Apple. Thus, it seems that foresight of the success of that product was critical. Fundamental analysis ruled the day. Give us a cyclic look at Microsoft, a company that has seemed to slid into a status quo mode.
I am not a big investor, but I am trying to salvage my portfolio which took a big hit recently. However, I find the trends interesting and I can benefit from using them to take care of my own portfolio. I, also, am of an age to remember the depression and take all this monkey-business with our finances, businesses, etc. very seriously. I need some advice about weathering the storm. Thank you for the series. ddoll3
I enjoyed your Part 1 presentation. Could you include what is a head on bonds.
Thanks, Bob
For some reason I can no longer receive your webinars. I have all the necessarry software but I still can’t get it. Do you have written text on the webinar I can read?
Martin,
Thanks to you and Mike Larson, 2008 was my best year ever…..although I am reluctant to admit that fact to my friends all of whom managed to lose their respective shirts by following a primitive buy and hold strategy.
Now …..an idea for your next conference. Given the role of error in the Foundations predictions, I would like to see some probablity estimates attached to specific forecasts, e.g., a second bear market rally should begin sometime this fall (p = .75). That rally should end sometime early next year (p = .50). Stock markets should experience a ‘catastrophic’ plunge beginning sometime in the spring of 2010 (p = .80).
Thanks
P.S. Larry’s forecast of a Dow of 44,000 (newsletter) looks a little silly in the face of the Foundation’s warning of a ‘perfect storm’ heading our way soon. If he wants to maintain his credibiltiy, it might be wise for him to explain the discrepancy either on the program or in his newsletter.
PIMCO IS THE TRUE CONS IN THIS GAME MARTY AND CO YOU GUYS NEED TO INVESTIGATE THESE THIEVES
IF ANYONE NEEDS TO KNOW WHERE $2-9 Trillion is going look no further
Martin. I’m looking forward to the second presentation. I’m wondering if your panelists might consider commenting on the influence and validity of the so-called “Kondratiev Wave” theory of long term economic cycles. From what I recall of previous studies in this area, according to the theories of Comrade Kondratiev we are due for a serious downturn in the very near future. By the way, the comrade’s theories so upset Joseph Stalin that he was dispatched to the Gulag where he died.
I hope we have better fortune.
Hope you’ll use more standard video in the future. I watch videos all over the internet without problem but for yours I need “plug ins” that my computer doesn’t seem to want to allow to be installed. Thus, unfortunately I have not seen the video and won;t be able to see the next one. Is there a transcript maybe?
It video was very enlightening. If I had only taken my 401K into my own hands earlier… much earlier. At your suggestion to get funds into a safer place, I’m sitting tight with my 401K in a money market fund at the moment and plan to play the downside towards year-end for the longer-term. Any help with diversity to achieve this bear-market investing stategy will be greatly appreciated.
Martin:
When do you think banking interest rates will go up, and when to put cash on hand in CD’s short term?
Nancy
I have dial up too, and after waiting about an hour for the video to be downloaded, I never did get to review as dial up kept filtering the program. A written report would be nice or an outline. Thank you Martin for your help
I, too, am concerned about the cost of a “new” service. Since I already pay for the Safe Money Report and the Million Dollar Portfolio, do I need to ante up again. It would seem that the ideas presented on Part I should be used in part with these two older services so that we do not need to tack on another one.
I do appreciate the advice and the explanations on the cycles and look forward with some trepidation to Part II.
Richard Mogey says the US dollar’s bear market will last for 12 years ending sometime in 2012 according to his study of the dollar’s cycle. But according to your currency expert Bryan Rich, he demonstated in his 5/23 Money and Markets column the dollar’s cycle is 6-8 years up and down, 7 on average. He says based on this history the dollar’s next cycle is up in a multi-year bull market.
Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International says there is more debt denominated in US dollars than in any other currency. Come the next deflationary down wave, when this debt implodes to worthlessness, surviving dollars will explode in value, in what he describes will be a powerhouse bull market.
Dr Weiss, you are an advocate of the deflationary scenario which is in agreement with Robert Prechter’s forecast. In a previous webinar when you sat opposite Jack Crooks doing the sales pitch for ‘World Currencies Options Alert’ you were forecasting along with Jack for the dollar’s value to rise against other currencies over the longer term. But you now seem to be in the bearish camp with Larry Edelson calling for a continuation for the dollar to decline. Which is it Dr Weiss, why have you all of a sudden flipped from bull to bear? How do you know that the current dollar weakness isn’t merely a countertrend correction (hyperinflation worries) in a new bull market that is only in its early stage? Will you go back to being a dollar bull when the mood changes and the dollar starts its next big leg up?
I would like to see a serious debate regarding the US dollar’s primary trend between Bryan Rich and Larry Edelson on a webinar event. Lets thrash this dollar thing out once and for all. One will be wrong, the other will be right, investors in one camp will lose, the others will win, by which time it will be to late for many. Richard Mogey’s 12 year cycle decline doesn’t fit the 7 year bull-bear cycle described by Bryan Rich. Something does not add up here?
I love the comments from Hal Philipp above who subscribed to ‘The Foundation for the Study of Cycles’. Thank you Hal for warning readers on this blog the contradictory forescasts given from one month to the next, and what appears to be a bad correlation between the cycle waves and the price changes on the ETF’s being tracked. I am now a sceptic that these cycles cannot be used for short or even medium term trades. My bet is you’ll end up with more losing trades than winning trades, compounding loses over time. The bewildered herd following this scheme will end up as bewildered and disillusioned as ever! This is a marketed scheme packaged in lipstick that reeks of snake oil. I believe investors should view it with the utmost of skepticism. Guilty until proven innocent. I for one will not be subscribing to it.
Good luck and God Bless!
Just want to say thank you for all you have done.
Dear Dr. Weiss,
Re: your article on California collapsing – is it really true that California’s gdp is greater than that of China ?
PLease address the issue of illegal aliens and thier impact on social services namely health care at county hospitals and education. califrnia has the largest illegal alien population in the US . I believe this is what is causing California to go bankrupt .
It is economically not feasible to allow for an endless supply of cheap labor to flood our country. Besides the immorailty and unfairness to our citizens, it stifles the creativity and inginuity of our entreprenuers. I was watching CNBC and there was a report on a California farmer who had trouble hiring migrants to harvest his tomato crop. He invented a combine that actually harvest the tomatos from their plants ! I would bear in mind that high labor costs of kitchen help gave us the automatic dishwasher .
Please address this issue as it is not only important to California but also the nation.
The green shoots that are commonly cited in the news media as signs of an economic recovery are nothing more than Astro turf.
I hope the webinar is not going to result in a sales pitch to buy the software that the Foundation for the Study of Cycles is selling.
I’d like you to expound upon the rational for Larry’s prediction on the future price of spot gold, it’s role in the world monetary system, and the future of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. What are Special Drawing Rights, how do they work now and if it becomes the world’s reserve currency. Most importanly, a time frame for these developments.
Hello Mr Weiss, I enjoyed your presentation , but I got it second hand from my wife because I am deaf, and of course, second hand information is not entirely comprehensive.
If you cannot go into close caption, is it possible to have the cameramen face the speakers so that I, and possibly many of your viewers can lip read the speakers ?
Being deaf is terrible. Thank you in any event for your hopeful help.
Martin
Please provide transcripts of both presentations I and II? For hearing impaired it would be a great help. Thanks.
Interesting presentation. I am open to the idea that there are other/better methods to making money in stocks apart from the fundamental analysis taught in schools.
Partially applicable to this webcast – I have searched for any study which compared specific technical techniques- be they candle stick, trend lines or any other, vs fundamental analysis. Much that French and Fama studied all stocks and found small stocks with high book to price values outperformed the market as a whole. They had specific criteria and judged the success as a group. Is there a study which compares specific technical indicators to fundamental indicators to see which outperformed the market as a whole?
Along this line- has the foundation done this with cycles? By that I mean develop specific criteria and apply the criteria to all applicable stocks to see if the group outperformed the market as a whole? Apparently this group would be all stocks that exhibit a “high volume, good capitalization, high relative strength and consistent cycles” per Richard. How many stocks meet these guidelines?
I did not understand when he said if you “hypothetically bought at each low and sold at each high” was he referring to the high and lows of his cycles or the stock price? I assume his cycles – but are his cycles then giving specific times, dates, actions? How would one know the highs and lows? Where other confirming indicators used in Apple and Aeropostale? What would have been the results if one had followed all stocks meeting these criteria during this timeframe? What would have been the draw down? How long do you stay in a position that hasn’t moved? While 4 weeks to pick the top is extremely impressive- how many times did those 4 weeks or more work against the investor/trader? In the examples he gave, they were accurate 69% of the time- is this common or not?
One other thing I didn’t understand- in his talk Richard said they incorporated a 2% stop loss. But in the Apple example, when questioned he said the first trade resulted in a loss of the original $10,000 of $2,800 – at first I thought I misunderstood – but he came back and said the theoretical investment was down to $7200 (and one would have made it back on the next trade) – but that is a 28% loss- what happened to the 2%? I understand there may be some additional draw down- but to go from 2% to 28% I think needs a little explanation- or maybe I just missed something all together.
I apologize if it sounds like I am being critical- in one way I am, and in another I am not. I am in the sense that I want to understand and learn if this is something which would be beneficial to my portfolio. I pose the questions I ( and hopefully others) have because I am open to the idea. I am not being critical in the sense that i doubt what is being touted and just want to shoot something different down.
Last week BRFIC’s called for a more diverfsified internationl monetary system. Then
just lately IMF may be issuing $300 Billion worth of SDR’s. That would be ten times
the SDR’s that exist currently. Isn’t that a bit strange? Why wouldn’t China exchange
their dollar reserve for the SDR’s?
Dear Martin,
Would you be so kind as to comment if this is the same or similar to Elliot Wave Theory? Thanks. Jule
Dear Martin:
what I understand is that Foundation offers software and reports to buy. But will the Foundation make available to the public or the members detailed explanantion of the mathematical algorithms and the basis of choosing various parameters….in essence the recipe used for their software development. If Foundation is a private ‘for profit’ organization, then this is out of question since somebody who is really good with mathematics and programming can make their own program. However, since the foundation is a non-profit entity, I am wondering if this is a possibility. I am very curious how they are handling some of the mathematical challenges of forecasting. thanks
Sabu
Mr. Mogy mentioned, last time, that they use a 2% stop loss. If I used that 2% stop loss on an issue and it got filled, and took me out of that issue, how do I figure when to buy back in?
Question:
“If I recall history correctly, in a true collapse, gold is worth nothing. Archeologists on digs throughout the Roman Empire have come across countless examples of nobles’ homes found replete with gold that hadn’t been touched for fifteen-hundred years; when the empire collapsed it was literally worthless. I’m not saying it’s not a good inflation hedge under most circumstances, but in case of World War Z or some other such calamity, wouldn’t guns (preferably a rifle to shoot the zombie in the head), spears, machetes, etc be the best currency in trade?”
What do you see for gold and silver over the next six months?
Keep it up, nice post! Exactly the information I had to have.