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The government has just told us that the official U.S. unemployment rate surged to 9.4%, the worst in a quarter century!
Now, here’s what the government has NOT told us:
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This official number is grossly understated: It doesn’t even begin to count the millions who suddenly find themselves trying to live on a part-time income … or the millions more who have given up looking for a job altogether.
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The worst layoffs are yet to come: Not only from giants like Chrysler and General Motors … not only from thousands of auto dealerships and part suppliers … but also from millions of small businesses all across America.
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The government’s recent bank "stress" tests were flat out wrong. They assumed an average employment rate of 8.9% this year. With today’s announcement, it is now clear, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the actual rate will be far higher.
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The unemployment rate is CLOSELY correlated with the delinquency rate on mortgages. That means it’s now virtually INEVITABLE that mortgage defaults and foreclosures will surge FAR more.
And all this is why …
The Message You’ve Been Giving Me Is RIGHT ON!
You’re enthusiastic about using contrarian investments to stake your claim to huge profit potential in the next phase of this bear market.
PLUS, you ALSO want a better way to profit in short-term rallies.
In short, you’re saying you need more accurate ways to TIME your entry and exit points to grab shorter-term opportunities.
So yesterday’s question was,
“What tools do YOU use to spot short-term rallies in time to profit from them?”
Carl spoke for many of you by answering our question with a question: “It seems as though the market does not know that the “iceberg for the Titanic is already here and things are going to get worse. How do we explain buyers paying high prices for bank stocks that are fundamentally broke? Is there any hope for the market to ‘get smart’ and turn down any time soon? Your insights have been invaluable to me. Your thoughts?”
My answer: Yes, Carl, if history teaches us anything, it’s that these kinds of rallies and lulls occur in every bear market. I count no fewer than nine of them in the stock market crash of 1929-33 alone!
And history also teaches us that, despite the hype and happy talk coming from Washington and Wall Street, the fundamental trend will always prevail.
The lesson is clear: Investors who ignore the fundamentals, such as the surge we just saw in unemployment, are too easily seduced by Washington and Wall Street spin.
They fall victim to the lullaby that “the worst is over” and jump back into stocks just before the next major leg down. The result: A whole new round of stinging losses.
Now, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s coming next for the U.S. economy in the weeks and months ahead. Just connect the dots …
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Consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy.
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Those consumers are now either out of work or are terrified that they could be the next to lose their jobs.
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So consumers are avoiding unnecessary purchases like the plague.
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And that means corporate earnings will continue to plunge and inevitably, so will stock prices.
This message couldn’t be clearer: The long-term bearish trend in stocks is firmly intact. Our contrarian investments — things that rise in value when stocks fall — should deliver substantial profits for those who keep the faith.
Thanks for the great question, Carl!
Other readers were crystal clear about what they need to ramp up their profits: Expert help in timing your buy and sell decisions. Or as Doris J. put it, “Someone has to help me to tell me, when to buy, and when to sell.”
James S., an options investor, clearly understands the need for pinpoint timing. “If I miss the option date,” he says, “I will lose all I have.”
Ron H. says that the advice brokers give you is “dumb.” “Their response to taking profits,” he says, “is usually ‘NO DEAL.’ Or, when losses pile up they utter the mantra, ‘we are in for the long term.’ “
Ron also points out the importance of knowing when to take your profits: “Baron Rothschild when asked how he amassed his fortune, said, ‘Well, I took my profits!’ ”
You’re painting a very clear picture of what you need to increase your profit potential — and all of us here at Weiss Research are already working behind the scenes to give you something you’re going to love.
In the meantime, I need one more answer from you — an answer that will go a long way towards helping us help you go for significant profits in the lulls and rallies between major plunges in stocks:
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell?
Do they have a secret weapon — perhaps a timing tool that most everyday investors simply don’t have access to?
And, if there was a way for you to get access to the same timing signals they use, would you want to use them, too?
Just scroll down or click here and use the form on this blog posting let me know what you think!
And be sure to watch your inbox next week for our major announcement — a FREE gift to help you sharpen your timing skills and to confidently go for substantial profits no matter which way the overall market moves.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 376 comments… read them below or add one }
That kid sure got us in a mess. It will take the act of GOD through Prayer to be able to get out of this uncontrollable situation. I pray for all of you as I consider myself an important part of this even though Ihave not been able to financially help out.
Thank You
Verna
is there a reason why we do not expand our short holdiings at lower prices to bring our average cost down. If this rally is indeed long in the tooth , the price of some of these contrarian investments is looking pretty good.
insider trading. they are part of the structure that manipulate prices, with collective pumping, and shorting . they get a phone call or email guiding them to their share of the profits, for their co-operation with the bigger manipulation. organized crime disguised as americas political and business leaders.
I am a complete newbie to buying stock. I have never bought any and would like to
learn how to actually buy them myself with all of this advice I have been reading from you. I would love to be able to put it into practice. I know it sounds stupid but the only stock I had was S&P that my Dad left me and it lost so much that I finally sold what little bit I had left and put it in savings. The broker he used was USAA, but their constant advice to me when I inquired about a stock that I had seen recommended was that it wasn’t sound, that I should hold on etc. Please help me I have been checking ever financial guru for the basic information.
i don,t beleive one thing this government says–this country will be unreconiseble i beleive in the very near future we need a very moral strong leader to pull us out of the present chaos –don,t see anyone down the pike to fill the bill—hope i,m wrong though
What are the best ETFs to play for long-term bear market moves? Please advise.
I think governmnets, central banks, and huge corporations use the media to manipulate the public with green shoots reports. They tell a story that the economy is improving by saying that it is less bad than before by receiving the report first then they pick a number that is higher and then say that it is “lower than expected”. Or large corporations always have their earnings reports before the public, they then see the numbers and pick a number higher than their true earnings and say that their profits are “better-than-expected”. This is not really a tinming tool but they know that Wall Street investors are like lemmings and will believe everything they say. This puts more money on the table so that they can now borrow the shares that were bought by these lemmings and short sale them to clean out the mom and pop lemming investors. Notice how NONE of the institutional investors are in the market and the media says “They missed out”. But wait until the public gets an unpleasant surprise. Part of me feels bad for these sheeple because some of them are my friends and relatives. The other half says they deserve what they get for being gullible and fooled twice by the markets.
If I had the same tools, I would not in my righteous conscience do this to this extent that people bank accounts are cleared out to zero. The more this horrible green shoot rally happens, the more sheeple set themselves up for the fall. I would have pulled the plug at 7000 and took enough to profit but Wall Street wants to clean us out to the last penny by letting this rally go until 9000 before pulling the plug.
I am in the US Govt Security Fund and Bond Fund of America – I have asked my broker several times to sell i want out – but he says you are making money aren’t you? That’s not the point – I can’t afford to lose any more I have lost more than 1/2 of my pension plan.
I do not have the $250,000 in my IRA anymore to give you for investment purposes – I can’t take it out and management myself due to fed/state taxes – but I believe in your investment principles and need to make money – what do I do now?
I did notice that you only mention the U.S., my Chevy truck was made in Canada, how many lost jobs are happening there because of our “leaders?”
Dear Martin / Claus / Mike,
Well done, the information is correct, the strategy is pertinant to the times, The dicipline is steady. What I like most is how well it’s organized and maintained. I venture to guess that as time goes by and we step further into this depression we will be a very confident group of investors.
Russ
We are neighbors! I live in Jupiter Farms! I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for sharing this invaluable advice. I’m incredibly lucky to have stumbled upon your book “The Ultimate Depression Guide”. Now the real important part starts…building a pile of cash so I’m able to take advantage of all these amazing opportunities. You rock Martin! Thanks and Good Luck to everyone!
We need some expert suggestions from claus, you or others to properly
Utilize the correct technical indicators to determine short term buy and sell
Ponts when there is an upward surge. I use momentum indicators, mac lines and moving indicators
Plus the comments from news, and your sources I subscribe to. ETS are the key
Such as FXI as recommended by one of your publications. There is a lot to
Be mad right now as well as long term
Dave Morrow
The Super-Rich investors sell their assets in small increments as the price is increasing due to more public demand. When the market turns, they then probably wait until there is a big flood of sellers and begin buying again in small increments and then wait again until the market turns…..then they begin liquidating their investments on the way up again…. This is a very simple rule, however instilling in onesself the discipline to trade in this manner is always a problem…. there is always that fear that one may not have held on long enough, one may have sold too soon, etc…..
I agree with you whole-heartily that there is no way that the economy of the USA can sustain this type of fiscal irresponsibility that is currently being purveyed…. my bet is on AG ETF’s, Gold and Silver mining stocks, and Gold and Silver ETF’s…. Let’s hope I have made a wise choice….
Martin, When you add to 9.4% unimployed the number on welfaire and other forms of public assistance, medicade, those that benefits have run out the number are more like 20%. Major bad times ahead. Don
One last thing I forgot to mention….
As I’m currently lacking the real capital needed to profit in these opportunity-flooded times, is there any estimated amount of time of how long these great opportunities will be around (all investments in general)?
I believe in one year from now, I will have much more cash at hand to invest with. WILL IT BE TOO LATE? Of course, there’s ALWAYS opportunities. I’m just referring to the “juiciest” ones resulting directly from this entire mess. Cheers!
Short hedging when we are or will be in an inflationary environment is risky when prices will go up, although true values have gone down. Results may look good on paper, but the investor is really POORER…
Being a Canadian subscriber to your newsletter I would like toknow how we can invest in the Treasury bills you so frequently support in your new letter. Does Canada have the exact same opportunity that you have been describing? Would appreciate getting the Canadian slant on your recommendations. Thanks I know this is not your topic question of the day but really a pressing one for me. Appreciate your help in many areas as I am a greenhorn retired 82 year old with a small amount of cash I am trying to preserve.
Martin and Sharon – I agree completely with your analyses and as a careful long-term observer and student of both the financial situation and energy prices, I do not see a sustainable recovery out there after the “Stimulus.” Here is why, very simply: As the National Debt rises to around $15 Trillion, (and all of our politicos must share in that blame) we know that interest rates must rise in order for the Treasury to be able to sell that much debt into the markets as we over-supply the world with Dollar-denominated debt. The average rate on all collective Treasury debt could easily rise from the present roughly 2% average to around 6% or more. When it does, we will be looking at around $900 Billion a YEAR in INTEREST on the Federal Debt, more than wiping out the entire “normal” Federal budget just to pay the INTEREST. That will mean raising taxes, which will suck more money out of the weak economy, and in the best case it will create 1970’s style “StagFlation” if we are lucky enough to avoid your deflation scenario. The coming retirement of the Baby Boomers will add to the deflationary pressure, and in all cases there are going to be fewer people working. And with Peak World Oil production occuring now, we can expect higher traditional energy prices. More danger ahead……
The fact is there are very few people who really understand why stocks go up/down … it comes down to the leveraged financials that can buy millions of shares and keep them … for buying/selling to their own clients .. not on the same day but they just keep them because they have anough “float” to hold on too … they use this to pump or dump up stocks as they wish … there are many programs out there that have unemotional buy or sell signals … the financial companies have huge data centers and super computers that can extract the strong and weak sectors in the market … they have invested billions in creating their own specialized programs to undersntad what is going on in the market based on exotic and highly complex differential equation analysis to the fourth order … how can we retail investors compete against that … the American Financial system is nothing but a Ponzi scheme if you ask me … companies can enter forward looking earnings into their current EPS estimates and do we have access to that information … ofcourse not … the point of this rant is that we need indicators of insider activity … what blocks of stock are being by which broker and what are true earnings … we all know that ANYTHING in the financial world can be manipulated … honestly, the last 20 years in the USA has taught me that if you want to make real money .. start your own business … relying on the financial markets requires you to be plugged in 24/7 to trends / changes and adopting a sound risk / reward strategy … I mean I have been through the damn 1991 recession, the 2000-2002 recession and now we are in 2009 … enough is enough … so, if you are going to develop a new service … it has to be based on true insider cross currents …
I can not answer the first question.
and as for the second question, perhaps but it use the tools that are at my disposal and that I can afford.
As for the last question YES if it is affordable.
I am have a question for Martin, Nilus, and Larry. You have earned my business thus the reason for being a long term subscriber 2012 I believe. I have also subscribed to the Dividend Superstars and the Real Wealth Report. Martin, you are protecting our downside with inverse ETFs, Niles has also has protection with with another inverse ETF but Larry has no protection or inverse ETF’s. Why?I am curious and should I be worried? Because of my age, I can not afford to start over thus the reason for the convervative SafeMoney. I subscribe to Dividend Superstars with Nilus because of the need for Income (got smashed on the Bank of America pick) but DXD lessed the blow for that I thank you also. The Real Wealth Subscription was a Thank You for being their, and doing such a great job in the other two publications, although my profits continue to roll in, I am worried that Larry has no downside protection. Is he predicting the opposit that the market will continue to climb? I am also worried that since transfering to the Uncommon Wisdom will I get my urgent Buy and Sell Signals? Thank You All for saving us from what could have been a travisty like so many of our fellow seniors porfolios.
I’m very new to your site…and investing. Although I just started your book, The Ultimate Depression Guide, I would like to start finding out where to open an account, but don’t know where to start. Can you direct me to where I can get an account set up (with minimal buy/sell fees) so I will at least be prepared when I feel more confident in starting to invest?
Is everybody crazy or stupid or both? Who invests in this stock market to keep it rising? How can this thing be going up again and again with the horrible unemployment numbers coming out monthly?! HOW CAN I BET AGAINST THE DOW JONES AVERAGE?? CONVENIENTLY?
I do not know how the DJ works but did dumping General Motors out of it cause it to rise?
With oil approaching $70 a barrel, is it time to take profits on DXO? Will oil be dragged back down with the market correction due, or will OPEC act to support $70-75 oil?
Hi; My Son is a VP with a large well known company. He tells us (Family), when to buy or sell, and the amount ( and what our limits are).
He has associates with other companys, and they share information. So we profit from that also. There are some losses, but very few. I think all large business work this way. If he were to withhold this info, the inlaws, his Wife, and his Mother would be very unhappy.
No I would not . Action speaks louder than words. Look at the condition they got themselves into. I would rather make a managerial decision of the pros and cons and go for it.
Governments, like corporations have their executives called politicans. Their goal is to get money to fund their projects and to benefit their big campaign contributors. They will continue with their time proven methods (raise taxes to meet shortfalls, finance failing businesses, cut services, promote spending on porjects that benefit them and key constituents etc.) until these methods become totally broken. And they are now broken, many just don’t yet realize it or want to admit it. We are at a changing point and a new economic paradigm will ultimately be born out of the current mess.
Corporations on the otherhand tend to be more closely linked to economic reality unless they depend on government contracts for a large portion of their business. Then they fall into the political category of business. In general, corporations will stay the course for a couple of quarters other started adjusting more quickly to the new emrging economic paradigm, namely the consumer economy is broken and no longer has money to spend.
I think corporate executives have one secret weapon namely access to other colleagues in similar positions at other corporations as well as their suppliers. They get together over a game of golf or other activity and exchange notes, ideas and financial reality.
I would love to have access to consensus information from such executives. For example where they are putting their money and their companies money? The reasons why they are selling stock, why they are not? What type of company do they all wish they were currently running in this economy?
HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES, THE WALLSTREET BANKERS AND THE FED HAVE THE GOLD AND INSIDERS TO MAKE THE RULES SO THEY ARE AHEAD OF THE GAME. THIS IS WHY WE NEED A GURU LIKE MARTIN WHO KNOWS THE INSIDES AND OURSIDES OF THE GAME.
YES – The government is not telling us everything. How many will be without work
when they get through down-sizing the auto dealer? How many vehicles will be
parked when you cannot get a $30.00 part?
We haven’t seen the bottom yet. Money is running out just to house, feed, & clothe our families. Why? Most of the young generation who are now in their 40’s and 50’s did not
save for the hard times. I am 80+ and I do not feel sorry for those whose
blew their money. You cannot borrow yourself out of debt. It does not work.
GKH
One more question…I have just lost my job, but thankfully found another at a large decline in pay, but will have to do something with my meager 11k 401k. If taking that money out and using for investing purposes is my only shot at investing, am I stupid for taking it, or smarter to give it a shot to make it work for me? (After I’ve finished reading your book).
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell?
Martin, in answer to your question, I think that a a majority of investor in general simply follow the crowd. When the crowd takes a bath they do too, they’re born and breed to be follower after the crowd.
Do they have a secret weapon — perhaps a timing tool that most everyday investors simply don’t have access to? Yes, the few smart investors do have secret tools. the tools depend on the kind or type of investor, because those coming to the market are many and varied so are the tools they bring with them to the market place.
And, if there was a way for you to get access to the same timing signals they use, would you want to use them, too? Yes!!!!!!!
I am about to add a few employees to my computer services company to assist me in providing on line programs for busy executives called PowerTool Calendar, Contact Manager and Eas2File filing system. I AM NOT GOING TO HIRE AN AMERICAN. INSTEAD I AM HIRING PEOPLE IN PANAMA. WHY? Because having been in business in America since 1955, I see my obligations and legal responsibilities growing almost yearly. Now when I view an employee, I see a potential law suit, government agency complaint investigation for labor practices or whatever and a potential new burden requiring me to pay for his health insurance and an American who has an “I’m entitled” attitude and unwillingness to work hard at really pleasing my customers. In the past, my employees were my assets. Now they are my enemies. All thanks to the government. And as the government continues to “help people” which inevitably means either more taxes for me to pay or more inefficiency for me to manage, I have decided I’ve had enough. There are millions of well educated and willing to work hard employees all over the world who can do my jobs well, be appreciative for the job and willing to learn more to be advanced. All at a cost of about 50% of what I pay in the USA. I can compete against anyone now. Tell me one more time how the government can create jobs in America by adding regulations, laws and increasing taxes. Somewhere along the line I must have missed a memo.
Short US Treasuries –Symbol ETF
Other great investments are gold, silver, shorting the US dollar and investing in Asian currencies.
Martain, How is this country going to right itself again if all we do is give our money to other countries. All the help should being staying here right now. All this talk about when to buy or when to sell, but no one ever tells us about what to do when the people helping us don’t know what they are doing. Our trust is in the salesmen that sells us there stock program. Then when we trust them and they make the wrong choice we are told we picked the wrong team to follow. All of us people with a little money left to invest are becoming less likely to trust the “salesmen” now because every time you get involved with a stock program that we buy, weather it be yours or any other program they just want to get you to buy another one. So what happens we spend our little be of money just buying and buying programs. I understand everyone has to make a living, but “come on” how much can we buy. Help is always just around the corner but the block keeps getting longer and longer. I hope you can understand where I am coming from, but every salesman and every program just leads to more spending. I am really starting to believe that no one really cares about us little people no more, It’s just about filling there own pockets. Thank-You for your time.
Bob Sorino
We have a saying in spanish— en rio revuelto cosecha de pescadores — in a turbulent river , the opportunities for true fishermen increase. What I plan to do is to follow your indications (Martin´s and group ) , moving fast and without looking back.
A case in point is GROW , I bought it the second you recommended ( at 7.60) ; if I had waited the price would have been 20% higher
Hi Martin, been following yu guys for a while and I’m in your court. I see this market as one huge manipulation with no rationale behind it. I sold some stocks based on your recommendation awhile back. Seems like I could have stayed in for some more profits, however, I do have more cash on the sidleines. I did, unfortunately, pick up some SKF and SRS to early in the game and now significantly underwater. Getting back to my manipulation comment, it seems that the market makers are running up oil lately, one is as a hedge, the other is to force the hand of the FED. With the recent runup in Treasury yields, seems like the FED wants prices to drop in order to make a big repurchase to drive down yields again. Otherwise, if mortgage rates continue to rise, it will be another bloodbath for those homowners hanging by a thread. Looks like this assumed recovery is going to be prolonged.
1. ABSOLUTELY THE MEDIA……ALSO ANALYSTS, THEY WILL PROP UP OR PROP DOWN A CERTAIN
STOCK (THEIR HOLDINGS) AND THEN WHAM!!!!! THEY WILL TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TRADE, I KNOW BECAUSE IT HAPPENED TO ME ON A PARTICULAR STOCK THAT I’VE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR 1 YEAR.
2. TOOLS ARE: CHARTS WITH VOLUME (YOU CAN GET THAT ANYWHERE???)……INSIDER BUYS AND SELLS……INSIDERS PERSONAL CONVERSATION WITH THE COMPANY ITSELF?
3. yES, i WOULD LOVE TO GET WHATEVER TOOLS THEY ARE USING TO CLOSELY TIME THEIR
BUYS AND SELLS. IF YOU CAN TIME IT AT LEAST 75 – 80% EVERYTIME, THEN THAT WOULD BE VERY NICE.
Tim Geithner said this in China:
Geithner, speaking yesterday in an interview in Beijing with Chinese state media outlets, said he has “found a lot of confidence” in the U.S. economy during his trip to China.
It apparently has become VERY IMPORTANT for the Chinese to see some improvement in our economy before they feel confident in purchasing more debt from us. I can’t help but think about the $7 TRILLION that the Fed printed up and are REFUSING to tell us where that money went. I don’t remember if it was $7 or $9 trillion but it was a lot of money. Do you think that perhaps it is with the PPT or maybe Goldman Sachs who has this money to “prop up” the stock market to ease Chinese fears?
As a Canadian subscriber to your various publications, would it not be an opportunity to safeguard investors US$ by purchasing some of your recommendations in Canadian investments (ie) Eldorado Gold or Kinross Gold. This way they get a double whammy…the appreciation of their investments in a currency that is rising against the US$. as well as the stock appreciation. I try to avoid holding US ADR’s or attempt to find an equivalent ETF in Canada to hedge the currency. Thanks…your long term calls have been “right on the money” and your political insights refreshing…. Kindest regards Arnold
Interested in ETF,s but never traded them . Is it easy ? I am in UK and like you expecting a huge fall in stocks. Everyone I talk to thinks our Government is a shambles and is in dissaray at present. Cant understand why Pound is trouncing Dollar at present as I think we are in a worse situation than you .
Answer to latest question: Of course the corporations, rich investors, etc., have a timing tool. It’s called “insider information”. It’s what separates the have’s from the have not’s, and it’s the reason that the latter can never join the ranks of the have’s, at least not very easily. I think insider buying and selling as well as money flows can tell us much about the future direction of various investments.
I would live to know the timing for buy/sell signals, I want to recoupd some of my losses!
Thanks Martin you and your staff are brillaint! I am a California Honda dealer, business is the worst I have ever seen it and I have been in business since 1944 (previous GM) No green shoots, May was the pits and June shows no improvement yet. This rally will end by the 4th of July. Congress then well pass the CASH FOR CLUNKER PLAN before the August recess. This well be a 30-60 billion fiasco, another transfer payment that will be sold to the tax payer as a help to the manuf.,dealers, dismantlers and of course the poor consumers who has a Clunker. The banks will finnance this crock and have to repo. these cars one year latter but who cares…….congress wrote into the law that they would protect the banks against repo. losses.
The inflation and distruction of the work ethic, which well soon be hitting us is shuttering!
Martin:
For those of us that cannot afford the price of your premium service what would you recommend we do to invest? Thank you.
Hank
My suspicion is that government doesn`t really know when or what is going to happen to the market. The central banks and big institutions I believe make things happen by investing large amounts of money and lull the little guy in and then take it out with profits –
the little guy`s money. Thanks for your advice. Ray in Tampa.
The contrarian course that we are taking will prevail. However, market sentiment is running against us right now. The brokers who did not see the drop comming, their customers who lost huge money last Fall and the Government desperately want this market to advance. We will have to be patient and wait until they see what is plainly in front of their eyes and give up.
WJW
Martin,
I have hesitated to sign up for your latest service the “$1 Million Dollar Portfollio” because I also presently subscribe to another service that has several different trading services included in its package. As much information that is available from them, it is very confusing which opportunities to try to take advantage of. I have been reading all their information and your daily paper in hopes of taking control of my future. I have never bought stocks or options, but, I would like to take the money that I have presently parked in my IRA at Fidelity and invest it in a something that would be able to grow. Does your new service differ from others that are out here?
I don’t think that government and big banks know any better than the general public about timing. They make their own records and estimates which are notoriously never near correct. Then they make their moves on their own flawed data.
Their advantage is that they know early on when their data turns out to be wrong and they can make adjustments accordingly. They are not any smarter, just able to make faster evaluations and adjustents.
I prefer to listen to long time financial specialists who have followed the markets for many years and who have the experience to make better decisions than the government and big banks.
Clearly the markets are being manipulated and the socionomic factors once again are controling the market rather than economics. The Elliott Wave students and practitioners should be in heaven with this tradable market. The current rally in stocks is artificial as usually on a daily basis, JP Morgan Chase or similar players enter the market place within the last half hour of trading with large purchases setting the prices upwards without corresponding large volume of sales. JP Morgan was the almost exclusive buyer on Thursday afternoon. It is obvious that the markets are being manipulated and that the stimulus is going into stocks as the bank’s including Wall Street firms’ toxic loans and mortgages are quietly being sucked up by publc agencies. This will eventually end as the public is not really taking part in the rally and then the bear market may continue.
As for your question of having a signal to buy and sell, yes it would be helpful.
Overall we have been buying all real estate we could in the past few years in Texas and loans are still available. Your articles did help scare sellers to sell at larger discounts at a faster pace than if we did not include your articles on the crashing real estate with our bids. Thanks for helping us make many purchases:))
Terry
The timing tools are Charts, MACD, and Stochastic. Those tools show the movement of large amounts of capital into and out of stocks. If you watch those tools you do have an advantage of being able to determine when large amounts of money are going in one direction or another.
The advantage small investors have is the ability to get in or out ahead of those movements. In highly liquid investments, small investors don’t move the meter. Only the big guys do.
I think that your question about how do the large, wealthy companies and investors know when to get in and to get out in order to maximize their profits is fairly simple… it is the movement of THEIR money into and out of market sectors and / or individual stocks that (by the laws of supply and demand) CONTROLS the value of both. As long as a particular stock is still considered desirable at some point, if it is in more limited supply, it becomes more valuable.
Watch where the money goes and try to get in and out when the big money does.
Regards,
Gerry
I am a retired flight attendant from United Airlines. Since retirement I have invested in rental properties, which I am now lucky if I can rent them for 1/2 of the former rent obtained for the same properties. The unemployment index probably is not counting me or others like myself. I can’t sell these properties, but still have to pay insurance, mortgages, repairs and property taxes. I am drowning in Santa Fe, NM.
I don’t beleive anything our goverment says. gold and silver is the only way to go right now!!!
I would think most large institutions and affluent clients are using or have access to very accurate technical analysis pointing them in the right direction as far as timing their entry and exit points.
Martin – could it be that the government is correct? and that going for the “all-out” make-it-look-better-that-it-does scenario..is are only real chance? By making things appear better are we not alleviating peoples fear and we get the impetus ( spending, higher expectations, positive thinking) we need to make this all work…?..it could happen…it has happened before here and in other countries. My biggest worry is that the people who claim that derivatives got us into this mess are now the ones USING DERIVATIVES…..double and triple short ETF’s, etc. Sound familiar?
I think that the Ultra rich have people watching the market for them. Their advisors are paid based on the money they make and protect for their bosses. They are also involved with the conversations of the owners / CEO / CFOs of the companies they invest with. They can get the inside scoop on how a company is really performing. It is a little insider trading, but they are not held accountable.
The only tools that I’m aware of are the same ones good analysist use to determine the direction of the market. In reading your book, your father used common sense and timing to enter and exist the market. Possible setting stop losses and similar could be of value. Also setting up options (Puts / Calls) is another means, but still timing is important.
I’m open to ideas and assistance.
Yes I want to know when I buy and when to sell and obtain all the information on how I can access to profitable investment, as told you in the past is not sufficiently aware of such investments, and please accept the full respect and appreciation.
Dr. Weiss,
Let’s get to the chase, when do I buy SDS. These signs have been ominus for quite a while but the market keeps going up, and as some have said, go with the flow untill? Every signal I see says the market should fall, but when one watches the news programs its Christmas. Your the expert with all those computors in that nice office, so please alert us when you start to see all the other computors selling so we can jump on the sled. Another words your getting paid to lead and lead with conviction when your insider knowledge blossoms.
Thank you for doing your job so that we may be able to profit.
I’ve just recently(within the past month) became aware of the philosophy of contrarian investing. Prior, all the advice given to me was the same, “Your young, just invest as much as possible in the market and hold on for the long-term.” I’m now trying to get everything I can into the safety of T-bills. However, I want to set aside a portion to invest in inverse ETFs. Is now the time to do so? Am I too late, or is it still too early to do so?
Martin,
So far you have been right on, but would you give any credence to Jim Roger’s arguement that a currency crisis is imminent and recomends buying commodities to prepare. He is also concerned about being short in this market, because he is fearful if we continue to inflate and the dollar gets hammered, all assets could rise, pushing the stock market to new highs.
Martin, after reading everything you and your staff members have written these past six months, as well as a ton of other stuff, there is no doubt in my mind that “The Big Guys” you mentioned have the inside track on most opportunities. My best friend, a broker for 45 years, also made that quite clear to me many years ago. The small investors get the crumbs.
Of course, if there is a way we could partake in the same info at the most appropriate times, you can count me in. I look forward to following your investment advice and always appreciate your info sharing.
Simply stated: The secret weapon is no secret. Cut your losses and maximize your gains. In other words, understand how trailing stops work.
The super-wealthy? They have insider information and they trade on it for risk-free profits. Just ask the SEC enforcement lawyers who are under investigation by the FBI for insider trading on information gained through their work! We cannot play that game. We are at a competitive disadvantage. In all honesty, I think that retailers should stay out of the stock market. It’s a lose lose for retailers when market makers trade their house accounts against their clients. Just look at GS double-dealing by selling worthless CDOs to clients worldwide and then taking out CDS on them for risk-free profits. Retailers don’t stand a chance of making any money in these manipulated markets run by insiders who are self-dealing.
It would be nice to know what insider professionals use to determine short or intermediate term rallies in specific stocks – but since I do not know this I have to day trade on the basis of the insights and methods that I have developed (the exception is gold where the trend appears to be clear for the forseeable future).
Bert
There is an easy answer to your question.The people making money in the market are those with inside information.This is not a secret any longer.Thanks for the occasion to express my disgust for what is happening here in the U.S.
I see many, many sales of the inverse ETF on financials going across the board. Am I missing something or are they just a bit early?
MARTIN,
First, I must say that I truly believe that we are looking at real manipulation of the market by the PPG. I see this mentioned in several of the services I subscribe to.
How can you accurately time anything when you are dealing with people who are manipulating the markets on behalf of the crooks in the government..
Larry Summers, and Bobby Rubin are experts at this. It is commonly known that Rubin and Summers, and their friends at Government Sachs, are easily up to this task. They have done it in gold and I am sure in stocks as well.
I’ve been told that you can deal with this if you can see it..
Can you see it?
Past tha,t it would certainly be of value to have a tested method of entering trades as well of course, exiting.
Love to see what you come up with.
TK
Final point… ALL MY EXPERT SOURCES OF MARKET RESEARCH AND TIMING HAVE BEEN WEARING EGG FOR THE LAST 60 DAYS… NO FUN BUT PART OF THE JOB!!!
I love your letters. Keep them coming. I noticed in your 9.4% unemployment letter that you left out the fact that the census has hired 1.5 mil that will be laid off after it is done.
Maybe they will just keep them employed at home so they won’t hit the unemployment numbers.
Thanks,
Workyboy
Reasonably reliable Buy/Sell Indicators that are easils accessable and easily understood would be a blessing. I know that Insider Trades provide some indications and are used by banks etc. I have tried to develop a “safe sell value” for each inverse ETF that I hold, but I sure would like to have a professionally developed system or formula.
Many thanks for all you do for us,
Stan
It would be nice to be able to be at the front of the line on stock picks. I have always had to play catch up after the horse was already out of the barn.
Hello Martin,
I have been following your messages for years, and although I have always taken your advice seriously, I never acted on it until last fall. Thank You. However, I also did not act on my financial advisor’s advice to get back in then the market was hovering around 7000, and you were suggesting much worse to come. I still consider that your reasoning may have been better grounded than the advice to get back in, but the results have not been so exemplary. I did benefit from converting some treasuries to Chinese, oil and gold ETFs, on my own initiative.
Now I am in the place where most investors are. The upside potential of most markets now seems very limited, and exposed to significant downside risks. The inflation risks associate with the huge debts being created by the various government efforts to prevent the economic troubles from becoming a full fledged depression seem to be closely balanced by the deflationary risks associated with that possible depression. In other words we appear to be teetering on the precipice, and could tip either way. One way leads to inflation, and the other leads to deflation. Neither appear very attractive to me, and neither does a third alternative, which is to continue careening along bouncing between the two extremes.
The problem is that those investments that do well in inflation do not fare so well in times of deflation, and visa versa. And I am not aware of anything that looks like long term stability. Even those investments I made mentioned are not much more than opportunistic short term swing investments. Serious deflation would have an adverse impact on all of them, even if inflation might float them even higher.
Where do we look for serious long term investments that are not at risk for the polarized risks of inflation and deflation? Most of what I see is like flipping a coin and calling one or the other. Surely one is going to be right, but i am not into flipping coins with my financial security.
Thank You
RR
This market is being held up by pure speculation based on media and administration B.S. There are no green shoots, except weeds, nutured by White House fertlizer!
The next 1 to 2 months will blow this trading profit rally right into the mulch pile. Be ready to jump out and ride it down with reverse ETF’s.
Martin,
First of all I wish to thank you for being on Glenn Beck. He has a great hands-on show with many facets of life shown nowhere else… like the great lies we are being told.
Next I wish to sincerely ‘thank you’ for your integrity. I have subscribed on & off since you began your Bank and S&L solvency reporting back in the late 80’s and early 90’s. It convinced us that while our Company was in fact among the top 10% performing Institutions in the Nation in it’s asset size, it ALSO gave us the insight to get out and merge while the opportunity was still there to do so.
WE were 10 – 12 years early in our presumptions about the economy hitting the tank but in fact with your tools, our ability to “get while the getting’s good” paid off.
We will follow your advice, Beck and others. We have a very tough road ahead and many will simply NOT make it… literally. May God bless you and yours. PLEASE keep up the good work!
OK, bought the etf and others, made fantastic profits ,but the dollar is in the tank and not worth anything. “Explain” Bought Gold and Silver and payed a premimun and now who do i sell it to? the same person I bought it from wants asell premimum. Looks like smoke and mirrors to me.
If the dollar tanks, we are all out of business including your 1 Mil investment. Of course we can all believe in the tooth ferry.
Goverments have no clue ,they are a total liability.Central banks manipulate where ever they possibly can.Huge corporations as we witness, force their policies untill the consumer kicks back with their wallets, even walmart.Super rich investors nurture their fortunes 24 hrs/day to the point of obsession like a new mother with her first born. It seems the only way.This I believe is also the secret weapon,and yes. I would use their signals.
Martin:
I believe that corporate officers know when to buy and sell because of insider knowledge. Legal or not, they use what is available and will help them earn money. The ultra rich are on the boards of these companies or have a friend on the board so information is shared amongst friends. Sign me up for the program. Which “CEO” just bought his corporate stock for $1 and it went to $4 immediatley. I could live with that kind of return. Thanks!!!
I don’t know exactly how the big players know when to get in and out, but they control so much money that when they do make a move it affects the whole market–or at least
whole sectors.
They have a lot more inforrmation than we do. The good investers also have a lot of common sense, the government,Brokers and some advisors seem to have none at all.
Dear Martin,
Governments, central banks, corporations and super rich investors, that is quite a mixed bunch. In my opinion, governments, central banks and most corporations (exceptions: banks, insurance companies, sovereign funds, the Berkshire Hathaways of this world) do not fit the description “investor”.
Nevertheless, what applies to every single market participant, big or small, is: there is no holy grail, there doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom and neither at the top.
A different -but related- topic is market manipulation. I am pretty sure it happens all the time. “PPT” and hedge funds come to mind.
The use of timing tools is a different matter. For everybody who is interested, it is easy to learn how to use indicators like summation index, bullish percentage, MACD, Stochastics, RSI, moving averages, put/call ratio, etc. Very useful, but, since they are publicly available (and for free!), not a secret weapon.
Best regards,
Henk van der Wijk
There is no doubt that the worst is yet to come. Until the leaders in Washington stop being immoral in there information, we will be in deep do do.
Martin:
It appears that so much government-printed money has flooded the market, that the DOW could remain well above 8,000 for awhile with no clear direction. Is it reasonable to think the DOW could continue to drift between 8,000 and 9,000 through the remainder of the summer with the VIX hovering around 30?
I have beeen holding onto ETF’s dxd , sef, psq(qqq) for some time and have not been selling in spite of the losses I am incurring because I have been accepting your advice that the market is about to correct substantially very soon.
Do I keep holding in spite of the bear rally rt sell and await buying back at lower prices?
The market can be “irrational” for a long time. The problem comes when you may be right but time it wrong. Yes, even Warren Buffet lost on the drop in the US dollar a couple of years ago being right but timing it wrong. Waiting to be right will eventually win, BUT, you might go broke or get old waiting.
IMO, it is near impossible to get the right timing points unless you are an insider. The market is so UNFREE and the PTB are manipulating gold, silver and stock values for thier own personal benefit, that the signals the average person gets are distorted. That’s why I count so much on you Dr. Weiss. You care about us and NOT just for our money. God bless you and your partners.
Doug
Please add me to your list re stock market likely bull rally end
First of all, I don’t read these mountains of information. But I know that in order to exit from the depression, they started a world war and after the war the economy slowly improved over some years.And in those improvment years
greed caused more greed so much so that thievery was king and this behaviour caused housing to become valued
so that only a fool would buy a home. And now all those homes are worth no more than $1,000 because remember
if you buy a home, you must fix the roof,youmust improve the needs, you must mow the lawn! I tell you that is a lot of crap!!!!…….Now I want to tell you that AIG dropped down to .46 cents a share and I bought 100 shares and last week I sold them at $1.81 Now I want to tell you that I don’t listen to financial advisors as they do not know more than me….And by the way I saw you on television a few days ago! I also want to say that I do use your advice to
guide me along to good judgement, but I will not pay for advice and so I am a user of info to help me towards a
result..So Thank You for the information that get on your table! Lenny909
Dear Martin, I know I dont have any concrete evidence to say this, but Ive always felt that the markets are manipulated by the very rich of the world. The 2% that control 90% of the money. Once you figure out their game, they change it. If their is a way to take some of their profits, well,by all means Ill do my part gladly. I dont see that happening! Thanks for all of your hard work, your Dad would be proud of you- Frank.
i like reading this site as it is honest and accurate on what is happening and i think martin has a crytal ball or a straight line to the good lord himself ,but,to be completely honest i dont give a damn about smart ways to invest,i dont have any cash to do so anyway,what concerns me is that like the Bristish press who know zilch its all criticism,so gives us some clues Marin and your team,how is the world and i mean all those economies suffering going to get out of this damn mess.i know your trying to give investors good advise but for folks like me its gone beyond more than looking after oneself its gone beyond that. we nearly lost our prime minister today over the never ending carping criticism or the opposition parties and all that did was to devalue the pound against the dollar and euro so a fat lot of good thats done us over here in the UK.Is there anyway out of this mess.
Hi Martin
I’m afraid the impending drop is inevitable and that a larger decline will happen in the second half. All of those people that bought the mortgage package which allowed them to pay a cheaper mortgage for the first few years are about to get hit with the higher interest just at a time when they are struggling to manage their current finances.
Once interest rates go up everyone will be knee deep in ????
Not very clever is it, to feed billions to the very people that caused the problem and then for the banks to hoard money and hold off on feeding new business.
Where do they think the next wave of money will come from once they have milked everyone dry.
Disaster looms due to greed.
Angela (UK)
Martin I always thought you had to know how to study the market to learn its ways. Something I had no time to do. I did have some success in the past with long term Mutuial funds.. But after the recent melt down I have been content to set on cash. I am just no savey enogh to play the market with confidence so I sleep better with alll in cash. maybe you can help me out.
thanks
Mike P.
Someone must have access to data and inside information prior to it becoming public knowlegde. Timing is everything and much of the market doesn’t follow logic immediately. A number of years back you were warning of banking problems with the end of the real estate bubble. When banking problems started, I began buying put options on Fannie Mae and the stock keep going up. After a series of options closing worthless I gave up. Several months later FNM began its decent to bankrupcy. The market often moves counter to what seem logical to me, but eventually logic must prevail.
I NEED A WAY TO KNOW WHEN TO GET INTO THE MARKET AND WHEN TO GET OUT.\
I NEED AN AFFORDABLE PROGRAM TO JOIN (LIKE YOUR CONTRARIAN PORTFOLIO PROGRAM) ONLY FOR THE LITTLE GUY.
AND YES I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE FAT CATS HAVE AN INSIDER’S VIEW TO HELP THEM FIGURE WHEN TO JUMP!
HELP THE LITTLE GUYS LIKE ME WHO ARE TRYING TO HELP THEMSELVES BY STAYING AFLOAT!!
They have access to “insider” information. That may be illegal but so is bank robbing & it’s done all the time. Brokers should be issued silver bullets & a black mask. If it wasn’t for you the “little guy” wouldn’t stand a chance in hell of prospering in the stock market. It’s the biggest ponzi scheme around.
Martin,
I don’t think the central banks really do know when to do things any better than my ignorance is expertise. I believe they act in the hope that they can delay their own day of reckoning. The sooner they fail, the better off we all will become. It is time for us to have a currency based on value instead of debt. This chronic debt is the disease upon which the bankers inflict economic slavery on the entire world.
I read an article that said ETFs are contributing to market volatility and manipulation because they must be rebalanced at the end of each trading day. If this is true, one would think there would be a mathematical formula to use with volumes and determine what’s going to be balanced. Is that true?
I also believe there is other market manipulation going on, and I’m not sure there is much we can do about it. I’ve heard about large sells to grab stop losses and other manipulations that take a LOT of money. We’re just the little guy – how can we compete with that?
Martin, I am curious what is up with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)? Their stock price has been climbing pretty fast yet “Goldman Sachs Bk NY USA” was on your list of troubled banks.
And to answer your question Martin, yes I would be very interested in access to those timing signals!
I truely believe that all on your list are privy to such information. They hoard the benefits for themselves, they dont want everyone to be successful in their earnings. The playing field has never been and never will be equal. Remember the egocentric believe that money equals power.
Sure Martin, who wouldn’t like to know the “secret” to making a vast fortune by being “in” on the “signals?” My problem is that I’m such a small investor, I don’t even count. As a matter of fact, I probably am really not even an “investor.” So I can’t buy into the 1/2 million dollar clubs. My question, however, is are the “secrets” going to be valid in a market that is not ‘free.” I ask this in the context of your recent advice with regard to “free” markets and how they cannot be counted on to behave as one should while the government, in this case, is in there fooling around with it. Or am I as confused about what you tell me as I usually am? fred
If US federal bonds are going to tank as you have suggested, i.e. interest rates must rise, ‘Dr.Doomsday’s’ statement: ’sell all federal bonds short now’ seems to make sense. Would you comment?
Even commodity EtFs are not “buy and hold”. Look back at the charts. While there still may be some upside in Ag, metals, lumber, etc., use tight stops and take profits along the way. The daily volatility provides alot of profit opportunity. When this bear rally breaks, look out, everything will come down (including emerging markets). TBT is agood way to play the rising long rates, but it too will come down when the rally breaks. So use stops (I like trailing stops) and take profits daily. If you get stopped out, you can usually get back in at a lower price. Right now the same goes for inverse ETFs.
I believe everything that Weiss has said however one item is missing. That is the word EMOTION!. Emotion drives everywhere and I think it plays a huge part in the market. After all we were at 14000. The problems that exist will eventually go away. How? I ‘m not that smart but the the DOW wouldn’t be where it is, even today. Most people have a strong upbeat feeling except for those times that seem to get in the way. If we all had negative feelings the market would go nowhere. For those times the market heads south you need a plan and I recently got caught in the upswing so all really never works. Good luck to all!
I think the buying or selling is sector driven rather than industry or company driven.
For example if durable and capital goods are weak, as they are now, those manufacturers who perhaps have capacity and low inventory due to weak demand from the 70% consumer driven economy would qualify as a good buy if they will eventually be strong with orders at the start of a recovery. The financial sector would not qualify as most credit quality (including the banks) is poor at this time and there is no demand by the consumer.
The liqudity of the federal government is good when the economy is good because it is collecting tax. Stimulus spending will not necessarily work at this time because our stimulus is borrowed and not being received through tax revenue. For the government to “load up” on debt is not good. Government can merely set a climate but I don’t know if they have a tool to buy.
I think that at this time whole industries such as health care, energy, technology, and food commodities are poised to do well soon. Exactly when would depend on the individual balance sheets, and management of the companies in the sectors and industries.
I don’t think governments, central banks, or huge corporations have a secret weapon timing tool, because they are wrong so much of the time. If they did have such a tool, they are telling the “Lumpinvestor” to do the opposite. The amount of spin and untruths coming from the Feds and corporations is frightening and highly suspect. They are intentionally debasing the currency to reduce our debt, but it isn’t working. The result will be hyper-inflation; then they will be shocked when they can’t get it under control because they didn’t act soon enough. I have been a DIY investor since 1986 and for the past three years have been buying gold, silver, foreign currencies, inverse ETFs, and commodities. Of course, my broker says to sell them and buy bonds and US equities. As a true contrarian, I am doing the opposite. Took a major hit, but didn’t sell.
The Corps and the rich have access to insider information -always been so. The financial advisors and brokers who purport to tell you how to invest to make money are phonies. If they REALLY knew how they wouldn’t have to work for a living. Martin, you seem to care about us and offer unvarnished,honest advice. Be wonderful if you could tap into the “game” and let the little guy know how to proceed. Meanwhile, I’ll stay with gold coins and ETFS,short term T-bills and some TIPS.
I THOUGHT I KNEW THE MARKETS——NOW I WOULD SAY I KNOW LESS THAN 5%……!
Martin , Timing means everything especially in options. Of corse market timing tools would make all the difference in the world.If I had those I wouldn’t have lost so much this year. YES YES YES Market timing tools are needed badly. Dave
Martin: If you could rely entirely on technical information, there probably is a timing tool- but I think the market cant always be relied on to follow technical signals in a time frame one can accurately predict. If there is such a tool , I of course, would like to be educated about it. In the meantime-you are my timing tool . Regards-the best to the team-John
hi Martin how about some good news, its wornderful that the vast majority of politions do little or nothing because they make it worse,
1929 was no triumph for us. the war finely stimulated the economy and 50,000 of were killed; now we have 2 wars fortunatly the death toll has not gotten that high nor has it improved the economy.
sadly our polititions can’t even run a profitable war.. ww2 we won and rebuilt half the world and had money left.. Explain this to us.
regards richard
If the banks and large institutions had a perfect timing tool, we as a nation would never have to worry about their derivitives “blowing up”. Last year, the banks and institutions did suffer huge losses. I think the stock indices are the same thing as commodities. To understand and get into the “right side” of the market on short term moves, we need to study what commodity traders do. Personally, I’m still working on it and intend to continue learning. Small position sizes are my best friend when it comes to the market. Otherwise, cash is still king and the metals are crowned princes.
Under current “bullish” environment in a “bear market” is it possible for an outright crash
to happen ala 1987 or is it more likely the next phase down will be a long slow death spiral to new lows.
Wonder since I try to take some profits on the upswing while waiting for the next downturn. Don’t want to get caught with eventual investments with a sudden 20-30% drop during 1-2 days making such investments worthless!
Don’t know and can’t see/find if there was that kind of fast moves during the 30’s after a bull move with the long down trend and would love to hear your take on that.
Thanks for GREAT information in extreme times!
I do feel helpless in this crazy fluctuating market. No matte what the sector, somehow I get it wrong and eventually loose money. Maybe we should all quit. Looks like they’ll have to scrap our present currancy, and issue new dollors to correct this mess.
The Directional Movement Index is as close to infallable for timing entries and exits as any I’ve seen. It is readily available on most charting systems, and many brokers sites have it for free.
Central Banks have the advantage of seling off their currencies when they think they’re overvalued, and buying them when they go too low. The market usually follows this lead, ensuring that the central bank “buys low and sells high”. Central Banks can get into trouble though when they “support the insupportable”, attempting to stave off a crashing currency where the fundamentals are just too powerful a downward force for even government buying to resist.
The market is a casino for the big boys to play(aka-central bankers and Goldman Sachs)
They control the movement of the market.Next up on the agenda, is either the dollar gets crushed or the stock market does.Take your pick.
Dear Martin
I am a single60 yr old female; I have some 401’s which are maintained by my past employers and I really don’t understand the stock market etc enough to move the funds around myself. THere is only about 20k all together. I have an annuity with Allianze of 60k that i put in for 10 yr (8 left), so am considering taking out my 401s to put somewhere safe. But what? I dont want to buy stock, and feel the market/currency etc going to fall fast.. What do you suggest, as I still make an income and would have to pay a 15 o more tax on it if i do withdraw?/ Thank you
The game is rigged by central banks, huge corporations, governmemts and the super-rich through fascism and mercantelism per Jim Rogers. They are the buy sell timers.
Martin,
Thanks so much for the wonderful information you impart to us. I would like to have a time to get out of the inverse ETF’s before they go south, if possible. I know that no one knows for sure but maybe more short term investments .Thanks,
Lynn
I am always looking for leading indicator type relationships that drive behavior. I believe many of the big institutions and government have the tools to find those relationships that I, as a little guy, only hear about when the knowledge is so common that it is hardly a leading indicator any more but more an explaination of what has already happened.
9.4% unemployment is hogwash because it never accounts for all of us self-employed who are not even eligible to sign up for unemployment benefits. I have been out of work since Jan. 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Almost everything is gone, I wish I had something left to invest in the contrarian account. We live day to day unable to buy a gd thing unless it’s ABSOLUTELY necessary in this economy. The worst is yet to come and many of us will continue to fall deeper and deeper in debt until we are forced to sell everything. Good luck and keep selling into these fake rallies, because that’s all they are, one big wall street bs game of lie upon f______ lie.
I believe that the way central bankers, etc. know when to move in the markets is because they know how their policy changes will affect the markets and they know the timing of the “official” announcements of those policy changes. It is a rigged game. Knowledge (inside information) is power and if you don’t have the knowledge, don’t play the game.
I believe you Martin.
I read every newsletter from you like gospel.
Im so struggling to just get by day to day, I can even afford the membership fee.
What is even more sickening, is HOW Much my wife and I make. 10 times what my parents made, and they had so much more to show for it. I feel like Im in a nightmare.
Frank in LA.
If governments, central banks, and huge corporations and even Warren Buffet had an absolute fail-proof timing tool, then California would not be bankrupt, GM and Chrysler would not have failed, and “to big to fail”AIG, Citigroup, etc. would not have needed endless bailouts from a totally inept, amoral Congress that has bankrupted America. Buffet would not have lost millions recently which he acknowledged that even he did not heed the warnings of the dire downturn. Contrarian investments, as Weiss Research has expounded, are the most effective tools in the midst of a terrible international economic recession/depression. Blind greed, following the crowd and lacking common sense have their price and we have paid dearly.
I DON’T THINK ANYONE HAS A MAGIC BULLET FOR TIMING THE MKT. BUT I SURE WISH I HAD ONE–THANKS FOR ALL YOUR HELP LOOK FORWARD TO THE E-MAILS KEEP UP THE THE GOOD WORK
TOMMY
Is it possible that the money being so must larger and this early in the crisis that we could actually see a way out and have slow sustained growth form 10 unemployment?
We have about 12million illegals living in our nation. What about the unemployment that is caused by illegals? And when is our Goverment going to answer to we the people? We have a bunch of idoits running our nation, they have forgot that they are servants of the people, we need to clean house in 2010.
Is it possible that the massive Government money, being so must larger and this early in the crisis, compared to the early part of the last depression, that we could actually see a way out and have slow sustained growth from 10% unemployment reversing slowly but with conviction? For example could General Motors get a Harley Davidson type Boost etc. Also if all the G20 is in sync and they all print money we just may have more money in the sysem to fund this growth.
Hi Martin — While I started with your father and you some 40 years ago, as one who is now in his 80s, I am not very interested these days in a secret way to know when to buy and when to sell. There are many of us who are retired and our main concern is how to safely protect our capital while at the same time increasing our income to live on. With money market funds or short term treasuries yielding such low returns, where can we safely invest our cash reserves to provide us with the best yields? Interest rates appear to be heading higher, which makes long-term bonds less attractive as they decrease in value. We are caught between a rock and a hard place.
As a Weiss Inner Circle member, I look to you for answers. Thanks, Bruce
Martin, thank you for what you and your staff are doing, you have provided the most upbiased, direct and technical information I have been able to find in regards to investing. I don’t believe there is a conspiracy among the upper echelon investors in regard to timing, I am sure there is some collusion, but I could not imagine to a very large degree in order to stay under the radar. I could not imagine the risk/reward ratio compared to getting caught would be worth it. With the way the question was asked, I have a sense you may have a solution? I did join your Contrarian Portfolio, I look forward to that experience. I do hope Claus will invest in the currencies via ETF’s and use other short term methods of investing. It appears there are money making opportunities short term, it would be good to make more money to build up the capital reserves ,but most importantly be able to do it using other asset classes, I am very much looking forward to this education. Again I cannot thank you enough .
Warren Buffet is one of those super wealthy investors. His wealth gives him access to investments paying 10% interest when the government (Taxpayers) doesn’t even get that kind of return for the same investment. He certainly isn’t limited to the same investment environment that is available to the masses. Opportunities will always float to those capable of exploiting those opportunities. This creates a network of the well informed providing them an early mover advantage. They also have the advantage of no investment will alter their standard of living so patience coupled with informed opportunity provides success. I’m not sure that their opportunities are pertinent to me. I actually need more frequent successes in order to just maintain my current standard of living when finally I retire. A five-ten year span for my investment to turn successful would definitely cap my future lifestyle. I probably need to succeed in the minors before entering the majors.
Hi Martin,
I like your blog, at least you know what people are thinking and you are getting feedback. If I was in a position to invest I would be a day trader. It is good that
you tell people the truth because the Gov’t can’t, the people would panic and the companies will not because they need cheap money to operate. Money they don’t have to pay back if they fail (OPM). Since investing in stocks I realize the power of the penny.
Benjamin Franklin I think was, the one who said, “that a penny earned is a penny gained.” I will satisfy with small pickings and safety till I am more secure. Thank you so much for being there for the young people,the newly retirees and the families who need your help.
Martin, it does not matter to them where the stock goes, as long as it moves, so they can milk the changes. How do they time that? Simple, they just make the changes themselves, once they are big enough. (Deutsche Bank Currency stock, $40 silver some years ago.) Jan.
Your analysis is full on target.
If I was any more of a bear, I’d be on all fours somewhere high North on a river and eating raw sockeye.
Disclosure: Pulled my shorts in March, ran a bit with the bulls and getting ready for the next down leg. Close to 95% cash as of last week.
martin, which newsletter can we subscribe to that gives us an idea of what to be in, like now if we did not sell stocks lst year and they came back would you be selling here, but where are you putting safe money at his point?
listening
susan
Some Fin. Services say they do. Can it be so? And if not, why not?
James Palmer
Dear William Flick,
“The Merchandizing of the bodies and souls of men seems to have no morals.”
There may be alot of people who need a place to stay before long! Opportunity to help our fellow man — don’t look for it from Washington — this is not an accident nor a drill, but the real thing!
REGARDS,
JP
Whatever Government, I mean Goldman Sachs says seems to be a pretty good indicator of a stock or commodity going up. These people seem to be doing their best to keep precious metal prices down. Don’t think it will work though.
The wealthy elite have political connections that give them advance information on goverment economic policies that affect the markets. They play the game from the inside.
Question: I have Series E savings bonds I have purchased over the last 20 years because I work for a defense contractor. Should I sell or hold?
Yes, of course a timing tool would be great. I do not know if major corporations have such a tool, although I suspect that banks trade forex in this manner.
Martin…….they dont have to ” know ” ! Their extraordinary large infusion of cash is able to move the market up…..and conversely, exiting huge positions move it down…and yes, their marketing tool is called ‘ MONEY ‘ ! Lots of it. Successful investing for the rest of us is contingent upon riding close to the coattails of these big money movements over specific periods of time…..the trick is being shrewd enough to capture pieces of ‘ the trend is our friend ‘. I believe you ARE smart enough to profit from these trends. Consistency, discipline, intelligence and courage is what it takes…….show us the way Martin………..Harvey K
If the “little guy” is to ever prevail, then “YES” we need to have an insider’s view to know when to buy and sell. The big players want us all to put our money back into the stock market so that they can dump it again and wipe us all out “again”. The shorts are getting killed because they want us to sell and go long, and then get killed again!!
In my opinion there is no magic button of knowing when to buy and when to sell. This is where research, time, and effort come into play on the part of the investor. For example, in a recession or depression what goods and services are people looking for? Answer: they are looking for materials that help them survive. The materials can be food, metals, oil, ect. These would be commodities. They are looking to get by as cheap as they can on energy as well and right now solar panels are selling like hotcakes and I see them all over the country side. When to buy: you would buy into commodities at a time when the trend is heading toward economic hardship (like about 6 years ago for precious metals and RIGHT NOW for agricultural commodities.) When to sell: when our economy is bottomed out and the trend for metals is coming to an end (if this ever happens) and grains would be sold as soon as people start becoming self-sufficient again, which could be in about 3-4 years. Again, research the trend!
Do I think Geithner, Soros, Goldman Sachs, the Plunge Committee, with the aid of the liberal media, manipulate the stock market?
Only when I’m sober or drunk.
Ever since Treasury Sec’y & Goldman Sachs alumni Paulson went running down the streets yelling ‘Panic! Panic! Emergency, the sky is falling!’, the entire Bail-out program has seemed no less than a masterfully orchestrated bank robbery wherein the Bilderbergs, the Skulls and the CFR, etc., plunder not only the U.S. Treasury but the greatest corporate assets of the nation.
No one will ever convince me that an unknown black community organizer from Chicago beat the Clinton machine in raising funds — or that the massive dive into socialism does not have the fingerprints of G. Soros all over it.
(Remember: Soros bought a fistful of Sec’y of State elections in 2006 in order to be able to manage the voter rolls in 2008.)
Are the markets manipulated?
How do you spell ‘whore’?
Lawrence Priestman
P.S. if proposed Justice Sotomayor is seated, you can kiss the 2nd Amendment and then the country ‘Good-bye’.
I think you people have it all wrong. Stocks, Treasury Bonds, and/or other paper is not the answer. Precious Metals is what I put my money into for the past 50 years. I am glad I did. It has rewarded me very handsome through all our recessions.
The best long term timing tool ever invented is the moving average. Don’t initiate the bulk of your short positions until the trend has clearly reversed back down. In addition to the moving average, I like to see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows…
This whole bear market rally has been a sham. The Govt. realized they couldn’t support this whole financial system single handedly so they hatched a plan with the assistance of crooked corporations and the media. Let the market free fall to lure in the shorts. Then lower expectations and change the accounting rules to allow corps to massage their numbers to show “profits”. . . market pops higher forcing the shorts to cover. cook up a lax “stress test” to “prove” the banks are fine. Release overly optimistic numbers (that later are quietly revised). All this artificially pumps the market higher, allowing the banks to issue shares to the “bagholding” public… This has been the biggest “Confidence Game” in history. Look out below!
I don’t mind being patient, waiting for the next leg down. Without a doubt, trying to profit with investments counter to the long term trend is a heck of a lot more risky.
But there is a certain psychology in many people whereby they have to always be “doing something” and that means some very dicey counter trend bets which I think it most prudent to avoid. AS A MILLION DOLLAR CONTRARIAN PORTFOLIO INVESTOR, I agree with Claus – BE PATIENT! All good things come to he who waits. MARTIN – THANKS VERY MUCH FOR YOUR REGULAR MARKET UPDATES – WE READ EVERY WORD.
The government has been manipulating this market more than ever, through their main bank conspirator Goldman Sachs.
Governments, central banks, and most huge corporations do not know when to buy and sell. And the super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell because they rub elbows and run in the same circles to help each other out. Most of the good info is passed along in the country clubs, where one hand helps the other. Old boys networks that control the really big money.
By the way, I agree with your e-mail today. Being a mortgage banker myself, I just received an urgent e-mail from Freddie Mac expanding their rescue efforts for home owners. They will now allow non servicers to refinance high LTV loans upto 105% without PMI. They are expecting a lot more loans to be in trouble this summer and the new OPEN program will reduce rates for many that today cannot refinance. If the rates remain low, most mortgage originators should see a banner year. BofA JP Morgan Chase Citi Wells.
The market has really confused me lately. I would appreciate any advice on purchase/sell activity. Also, do you have any advice on “Spiders”. Someone told me that would be a good way to go.
You can’t beat the system. It won’t let you.Years ago my father bought a used slot machine. Everybody used to put their change in and once in a while it would pay off but not much. When it stopped working my father examined it and found someone had filed off one of the pins in the mechanism so you could never get the big payoff. That’s sort of where we are today with our investments. Making the wrong investment can cost you a lot and get you nothing in return.
Protect your family and be very cautious where you invest.
Martin,
First I want to thank you for all the guidance you have given myself and the general public. You and your team’s guidance got me out of the market last August B4 the crash, and hopefully will guide me through the months ahead. I am currently about 60% cash in short term treasury notes in the mutual funds you have suggested over the past year. I am now wondering if I should move some of these funds back into corporate blue chip bonds like JNJ, P&G and possibly others. Is it too early to do this?
Thank you
Jim Moczarny
A penny saved, a penny earned.
Cash is king.
A fool and his money are soon parted.
No workey, no eaty.
You gotta know when to hold, you gotta know when to fold.
The maket is as unstable as the times we live in.
mr.weiss have you been pressured by the govt to change your tone.the govt must see you as someone who they cant control to get their spin out–how long do you feel people like you will be able to give the truth
Martin;
The big government and very large investors have the advantage of inside information and their size to influence the direction of their targetted investments. This scenario is played out constantly, and has been going on for a long time. It takes a well organized plan to successfully overcome these actions, and we look to you and Claus for that service.
Martin: I certinly appreciate the information you have been providing. Earlier I tried
buying stocks in companies that had tangible assets, i.e. natural gas, coal, etc. but they
also took a big hit. Now I am only using SDS and SSO, but the market is so volitile
that I have trouble timing. I know the pros use cycles, fibinocci @’s, etc., and I believe
there is a lot of manipulation. I am completely out for now as I do not see any reason
for the hugh gains. I hope to get in again when the market turns down. A timing tool
would certainly be helpful. I feel as though I’m watching the world pass by and I have
not boarded the train. Lyn
Martin:
Can the federal government confiscate our IRA CD’s?
Quite honestly … this is an extremely sad state of affairs … I will sum it easily here:
SENIORS FEELING POORER | Story
Estimated wealth of households in the 55-64 age group and 65-74 age group in 2009 and change compared with households in those age groups in 2004*:
Households ages 55-64
Wealth Change
Median net worth $159,800 49%
Median financial assets $52,600 41%
Median equity in all real estate $65,900 54%
Households ages 65-74
Median net worth $214,100 13%
Median financial assets $79,600 81%
Median equity in all real estate $98,200 27%
* = excludes wealth in defined benefit pensions. Source: Center for Economic and Policy Research
So, you work your but off to make this country … all for misery at the end …. I am not in this category (age) but I am wondering what investments to make for long term growth and where I don’t have to worry myself to death on a week to week basis monitoring their status …
Wealth is built simply as follows:
1. HAVE NO DEBT … just buy what you can afford …
2. STASH YOU EXTRA INCOME in REAL ASSETTS –> Commodities .. Land … Buy tons of acres of land … it will appreciate …
3. WORK OUT / EXCERCIZE and above all ENJOY life … we only have about 90 years of it …. Health is Wealth …
4. MAKE SURE YOU DON’T SPOIL the kids … if you want to maintain generational wealth … show them how you did it ….
More to write this weekend ..
i’m in australia the gov quotes 5.5% unemployment seems like everyday manufacturing is going to asia or india. most big companies have overseas call centres and telemarket from india the only thing keeping us from a recession is minning. I dont believe they are growing new jobs here, Much china controls some big mines here now. I believe democracy is just a corrupt body now. always allowing the media to glorify gambling when you have no job retired or injured you really have to look for sensible things to do this recession will end when democracy is strong again and people look to helping each other I am not all that religous but believe (good will) will save us not gambling
Dear Mr. Martin,
I guess when one holds an Ace card-meaning INSIDER INFO, one usually has an upper hand on the market. One can short selling or manipulates the market as one is pleased.
Of course I need help in honest investing to earn some profits.
i am a real estate investor in Texas with 30 plus million in residential property. The key to it is not paying too much for it. Real Estate is local whereas the stock market is global and I have no control…too many people who I do not know or understand are making the decisions. I believe residental rental property will be the best investment over time as very little is being built hence a huge demand for rentals will occur in the next few years and as people lose their homes they become tenants…plus if inflation does occur rents and prices should go much higher…I believe property is better than gold in nearly any crises…dollar or otherwise especially in the long term…I do not understand the stock market so I will leave to those much wiser than me to play in it and try to time the market….I don’t think it makes sense to try….it is pure speculation rather than investing… I would be interested in your opinion.
It sure seems to me that there is more economic pain to come as low consumer demand puts a lot of pressure on both small and large businesses that do not have enough working capital to stay afloat. It’s also obvious that most local and state governments are scrambling to stay afloat – especially here in CA. Therefore, it seems the length of time which consumer demand remains low will play a big part in what happens in the future. Since a lot of this decades demand was artificial due to the housing bubble (home equity lines, increased overal debt, etc.) , I’m skeptical about a demand turn around to prior levels.
I do think that given the head count reduction that is going on, many large companies will do quite well (earnings-wise) when/if we pull out of this and the market may be partly reflecting that.
You white guys are the biggest thieves since the earth was made. Keep on, keeping on.
Next stop,
Shaytan’s Domain.
I am a bit puzzled by the jobless rate as reported for another reason. What about the self employed private business owners and independent contractors? These people may not be eligible for unemployment insurance, and I think do not get counted. The household survey supposedly takes care of employment, but I do not think it is used for unemployment.
I don’t know how but I am suspicious that the “big boys” have a good ol’ boy network of some sort and the SEC is sitting on their glasses watching for the fox in the coup.
Hello Martin
Well i have been using charts a long time this helps. But everyone needs all the information
they can get. The information you gave me all last year heip me know how bad things where
getting . and this was befor oct.10. This help plan for the worst. Then using charts to time
my entry and exit saved a lot of money. The ETF’s help to diversify the the risk. the good bank bad bank let me pick who to trust. I don’t trust the media. I watch cnbc during the day. Mostly
for news.
THANKS AGAIN GH
There are some trading tools:
I use a 22 day moving avererage that cut into the price candle to make decisions. If the 22 days moving average cuts higher for 2 consequtive bars I would buy with a stop loss (risk) at the high of the first bar. The riks to reward (ratio) is always at above 1.5X.
The ris per trade is not more than 2pct of capital. If i lose more than 10pct of capital in any one month I stop trading for the month. I can have consequtive losses for up to 10 trades in a
straight line. My maxiumum draw-down can hit 30pct before rebounding to 50% ROI.
Why has gold taken such a beating recently in spite of some experts’ predictions to the contrary and the fundamentals? I simply don’t understand it.
In response to your questions, governments central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors DO NOT usually know when to buy or sell. If they had a secret weapon or a timing tool we wouldn’t be experiencing the financial turmoil we are. To profit in both good and bad markets requires knowledge, hard work, skillfull analysis, a super intellect and a strong desire not to fail. These attributes are in short supplly and the fruits of which are rarely made available. So when they are, you still need cash to take advantage of the right situations. For all these reasons I am still limited with cash and am not able to take advantage of contrarian investments. Much to my regret.
THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT TIMINGS IS EVERYTHING ESPECIALLY FOR OPTIONS TRADERS.YOU CAN SEE THE ICE CRACKING WITH THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS JUST AS BEFORE THE LAST CORRECTION BUT BIG MONEY PROPS THIS THING UP AND YOU NEVER NO WHEN IT WILL COLLAPSE!!IF THERE IS A BETTER WAY TO GET INSIGHT ON (WHEN)IT WOULD BE LIFE CHANGING FOR THOSE WHO PLAY THE GAME!!
I have always suspected that the big investors were probably the ones affecting the markets to their advantage. They know when to buy and when to sell because they know what their money is doing.
Would I use a rich person’s timing tool? Not unless I had faith in its reliability. I would not take on faith what “they” say and certainly not anyone in the government.
Martin,
Yes, I believe these highly educated insiders have an advantage. I don’t know if I could ever compete with them, but would really like to try. Especially now in this economy and my soon to be ex-job. I have little bucks that I would like to turn into bigger bucks, if possible. Knowledge is power.
Thank you, Quin O.
I believe that huge entities attempt to manipulate the market to create favorable conditions for themselves.
I believe the government is living in a fairy tale. They tryed to go to China and tell their stories, but they just laughed. I love the fact that this rally is built on earnings that were bad, but better that expected announcments. The liberal television stations spin this fairy tail to work in step with the President and his merry band of men. We talk in trillions like its chump change. I believe the president should start all of his briefings with “Once upon a time”. I believe the new is manipulated to make the average american feel like our economy is getting betting better. I am 100% on board with your views.
Hi guys, I think that there will be another leg down,but I think that the US dollar will collapse after this leg down thus giving a good long term up move. Can the dollar remain the reserve currency? If the current policy remains ta ta dollar. Is there any true information out there that can help the average joe. Where next?
sceptical john
Ahundred years ago, just before going to Korea to fight for South Korea, I was the chairman of Clarence Manion’s anti minority commitee, he was the Dean of the law school at Notre Dame and the Voice of Conservative America on over 300 radio stations. We believed that when every minority had the rights that they believed they deserved our country would be very close to socialism. are we close to that now or are we there?
Hi All, I’m new to this board, but extremely grateful that “divine intervention” must have led me to Dr Weiss’s new book. It’s excellent and I’m getting quite an “education” by reading it! Thank you Dr. Weiss for looking out for us, as I once owned thousands of shares of WorldCom. Here’s my question: Are we really dealing with “free markets”? I’m really starting to doubt this, as I’ve heard that there is a “Plunge Protection Team” (PPT) that is constantly interfering in the markets – probably the cause of all these “fake rallies”. I do not believe that there was any such thing (a PPT) in the 1930’s so this rally might last until the PPT pulls the plug? Would love to know what you think, and how it might affect the final outcome!
White papers show the built in decay for 3x products like FAS and FAZ. How would such products/ETFs repond(be valued) if the U.S were to devalue it’s money like Sweden and how would housing repond(be valued) that is “under water”?
Thanks …DanP.
You ask how do governments and large corporations or central banks know when to buy and sell? My answer is they DON’T HAVE TO KNOW. They already make the rules as they go along and we are all the little people. Don’t ever forget – the Fed has a printing press. As analyst Jim Rogers pointed out last night “The central bankers of the world can print this Dow up to 20000 or 30000!” At the end we may have a worthless currency because of it. Martin this is all manipulated by the elitist groups like the Federal Reserve and the IMF and the BIS. Ben Fulford from Tokyo (check his website and blog) says that a reliable source of his within the British Royal Family says that the Federal Reserve is broke and it and other elitist groups in the world (Bilderbergers, Committee of 300, Bush Clinton crime syndicate) are running up the Dow as a last ditch effort to sucker the public in and loot them. They will run it up to 10000 and then DUMP ON EVERYONE. Just another point of view.
Hi Martin,
I am a conspiracy theorist at heart but perhaps it is reasonable to conclude that governments, central banks and investers themselves ignore the fact that history repeats itself. So often we look back and say ‘how dumb were they at that point in history to believe that’. What will our great grand children think about our beliefs? After every party where booze is free, there are hangovers – only time can cure a real hangover. For some of us a trip to our local alcoholics anomymous meeting may be more in order.
Rose
By the way, Martin, you really need to address questions like the one Louis asked on this blog:
Louis 06.05.09 at 5:03 PM
I have beeen holding onto ETF’s dxd , sef, psq(qqq) for some time and have not been selling in spite of the losses I am incurring because I have been accepting your advice that the market is about to correct substantially very soon.
Do I keep holding in spite of the bear rally rt sell and await buying back at lower prices?
I am in that boat too. Thanks TR
I looked at the steel industry out of curiosity because I’ve never heard it mentioned in the news and figured it had to really be hurting. From what I found out most of it’s business comes from gov contracts, mainly military. It doesn’t look like our military gives them contracts anymore so mills are closing in the U.S. We use steel throughout industries and construction. It looks like gov is giving contracts to oversees based companies. The Chinese steel industry is booming from what I’ve read. It’s interesting to look where gov is investing. I’m not an expert, just observing.
When do you expect to deliver substantial recommendations for our Contrarian portfolio? The time seems right.
Yes, I would want to use the same timing signals the government and major investors utilize.
I think your correct I may be just a woman but I keep telling my husband he should read your comments we wouldn’t have lost over half our 401k back in October if he had . it’s like starting over for us as far as our retirement plans go we lost so much were left with pennies on the dollar . We can’t even go to Denny’s for the morning special if we were to retire today . My husband works for an oil company and I am a nurse so we were planning on retiring soon now it looks as if we will be working til the day we die and then we still will not have re cooped our loses. It is very scary now the news tells you how great it is but if you open your eyes you see people unemployed every ware. The president tells us it’s then he says I’m going to Paris LOL !!!!! with my whole family aren’t you happy now you have nothing and I’m taking what little you do have and leaving the country!!!!!!!. How fricking sad is that? Lies and more lies to cover up what a few people did to get rich so their families could get out of here before the nation falls apart . To prove the Government knows they have yet to arrest any of them for the fraud and thefts they perpetrated on the us citizens. So yes the worse is yet to come for most of us while the rats are running to Paris and other country to set up their beds there so in the end they have a safe place to go . There surely is a special place in hell for these people I have to believe that.
Government makes the fiscal policy decisions, Federal Reserve bankers make the monetary policy decisions, all of these influence the markets. The same goes for large corporations and their boards of directors. Insiders or people with inside information about what these decisions are and when they are going to be implemented could use the markets as their personal money machines.
Timing tools, in my understanding, are technical tools based on the markets statistics. They work on principle that they are well publicized, used by many people and therefore trigger signals that majorty follows. Those traders who can best predict the trend changes from these statistics are also in position to make money, at least on short term basis.
Yes, we all strive to get well timed market signals.
Anthony.
There has only been one area of society that seems to be competent in managing a regulation rich environment that has demonstrably improved society — the NTSB (National Transportation and Safety Board). They investigate in the richest detail every major transportation crash for clues as to how similar circumstances/risks can be reduced or avoided in the future and then issue recommendations on how to improve policies and regulations. The result of their efforts has been obvious. Aircraft safety in commercial jet aircraft is so good in America that it is one of the safest ways to travel.
Surely the economy can be studied with mathematical precision and policies there can be examined to determine those that contributed to the current economic catastrophes. There is so much at stake. Why not a NESB (National Economic Safety Board)? There are mathematical and economic experts available to decide on the facts, how similar circumstances/risks can be reduced or avoided in the future and then issue recommendations on how to improve policies and regulations.
Such a board could certainly do better than the handful of soothsayers who are managing the economy right now. The only real academic guidance for our current situation is Keynsian economics, which seems to have predicted our emergence from the last depression. The self-correcting part of the economy in the past has been that failed entities erase the wealth that they generated. The rule of consequences is currently suspended for some organizations, however. Activating public assets to cover private debt/mistakes/greed (choose one or more) without fixing the problem is obviously not a solution, as it only escalates to reach the limits of what society can tolerate.
A full accounting about the safety of economic regulatory practices, and the evolution of better rules about risk that are subjected to rigor and open analysis (as with the NTSB) can only improve the system of regulations needed to ensure that improvement will be made. Spending all of our wealth to support demonstrated failure does not solve anything.
My daughter has been with her company for 15 years. She has a Masters Degree and has an FMCC, and was let go. Due to her professional statis she resigned rather than be canned. They decited to trim the higher paid employees. How many people who resigned, rather than be fired, are counted in the unemployement statistics?
I think it is possible for anyone to have at least $1M in their life time if they know how to invest and/or trade. But the first $1M is also the hardest to save.
Having Hundreds of Millions or even Billions of dollars? Some will have that due to family hand overs perhaps. But I have also seen a lot of crooks that can get Billions in say, Ten years or less.
Some get profits from intellectual property (IP) and/or copy right (or left) laws and can or do run at least one illegal monopoly company. Some do go to court but some times (or most times), that won’t mean anything to anyone.
I know there is Trillionaires (up to say ~$50T or more). In this domain? It can be long Dark history. Perhaps the very people that are stealing money from us right now. It is the entire money system as a whole that allows this to happen. So you can imagine the amount of years this has been going on.
Taxes anyone?
Friday
They are joined at the hip
When the market is not to their liking, they move in lock step.
mwb
I think that Al Gore knew that there would be “Green” legislation and developed companies that could “bank” on that. That is how he has made $100 MILLION over the past year.
50 day moving averages, especially in the S&P and Nasdaq100 can be quite helpful. The 200 day moving average,because it”s bigger and slower can be helpful on longer term investments like mutual funds. I give it 5 days above or below brfor getting in or out.
Dr. Weiss,
Here’s my take on the four investor classes knowing when to buy and sell:
1) Governments and Central Banks manipulate the markets so they know when to buy and sell right off the bat.
2) Corporations know when to buy and sell due to insider trading knowledge that ordinary investors don’t have. I’ve recently read that there has been a lot of ongoing insider trading going on at large corporations by executives of those corporations.
3) While I don’t have any data to support my last belief, I will say that the super rich are no better on average than ordinary investors. While some may have a disciplined strategy (such as listening to their corporate insider friends as to when to buy and sell), many invest on sentiments and follow a “herd” mentality like many ordinary investors.
I like Clau Vogt’s methodology and strategy regarding macroeconomic conditions and technical analysis as to when to buy and sell. Also, your Sunday and Monday postings along with the other analysts at Weiss Research give a lot more information than the investment shows on TV, radio and account executives at stock brokerages.
I believe the best/smartest investors today have patience and a vast amount of
investment discipline, two of the many virtues I lack. I believe they do have both
fundemental and technical expertise in ‘timing’ and understand that when they take profits, there is a place that is extremly advantageous to put those profits to work;
rarely is the money stagnating, waiting for a ‘home’. I need help in all of these areas;
Martin is doing his best to instill patience – I am doing poorly following his suggestion/re
commendations.
Martin,
Enjoy your sound advice. It is comforting to know that not everyone is falling for the hope and happiness proclamation of our government. I realize they are attempting to convince everyone that all is well to boost consumer confidence and spending.
Basic common sense tells us that if you spend more than you can afford you end up in trouble.
I read your comments and those of your staff with great interest. Plesae keep up the sound observations and advice.
Dear Martin,
I have admired your abilities for a number of years regarding forcasting the stability of financial companies. When I found out about the “Million Dollar Contrarian” program, I signed up. I believe that you are right on with your forcast. What I find amazing is that with all the bad news the market and individual investors seem to be blind. Is Washington so good at putting a spin on information that this bear market ralley could last for a number of months regardless of the facts?
Thank you,
Jim
I’ve been working the Dow. I believe there at least two and perhaps as many as five cycles ramaining in this bear market rally. We seem to be near the top of the current cycle. When the cycle retraces to 10 to 20% below its high I will consider that a new down cycle will have begun. At that time I’ll be looking at Diamond puts. How far out is up to the student. The suceeding half cycle will be calls. It will be necessary to estimate the cycle length. If there are only two cycles there are four opportunities to double your money. That is two to the fourth power. That is 16X your initial bet (it is a bet)
Bob
I was watching Jimmy Rogers on CNBC yesterday Saying that this market might be going up to 20000 ore may be 30000 levels as the dollar devalues further, also he said that this time around he is not shorting the market , because its very dangerous. I would like your opinion on his comments. Thanks
It would depend on how accurate the timing system is. Can anyone predict what the market will do the vast majority of time.
Dear Martin
When it comes to stocks, currencies etc. timiming is everything, people that amass great wealth in good and bad times MUST have their ears to the ground and be very much networking and listening to who is doing what, they must know the backround of the CEO’s involved, know who will be geting the next contract, who the Government will favour or not favour, who has the next “big” dollar making machine and so forth and so on. You have to be right in there receiving all sorts of tips otherwise it is pure luck or bad luck if you are not in the Know like your organisation – watch ,wait and listen to the news and market. Too hard? you bet! which is why wecome to rely on information from organisations like your own – but who do you trust?
Hi Martin
I am an Australian resident, thanks for the terrific insights to the financial markets, etc.
I purchased a small amount of stock in a stock which rises with the price of gold (ASX:GOLD), unfortunately it has gone backwards, largely I suspect due to the disparity between the US and AUS $. Is this the way you see it?
I notice you favour Lihir Gold and Oxiana (now OZ Minerals – OZL), are they still on your list, especially with OZL restructuring and selling assets.
What avenues do I have to purchase contrarian investments through the ASX?
Regards
Alan Steinert
The CEO for Toronto Dominion Bank attended a recent Bilderburg Group meeting. This is a closed door meeting for the “globalist elite”.
In fact, it is amazing that the Bilderberg Group has met since 1954 with funding from the CIA and is made up of the world’s most powerful people, notably US and world heads of state, made and in the making, numerous international corporate CEOs from business, banking, industry, media, as well as world royalty, plus high-ranking members of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Tri-Lateral Commission.
Dear Martin,
John Miller from Australia here where BHP (the global minerals behemoth) shares have gone from $20A to $38A since March. Rio Tinto shares have doubled.
I’ve been sitting around waiting for the DOW to go down to 5000 points and instead is gone from around 6500 to 8750 in that time.
I’ve been guided by your advice over these last few months.
But I’m starting to kick myself that I didn’t get in on this greatest opportunity of my lifetime. I bought a modest parcel at $30.
Are you still predicting 5000?
Are we about to see another drop.
I’m getting edgy.
As far as a recession is concerned the restauarants are still full to over flowing here in Canberra. The soup kitchens don’t seem to be overflowing with new customers.
I’m thinking, ‘What recession!’
Regards and best wishes
John Miller
Well, it’s the game of The Rich Boys Club. A fully coordinated event.
Timing tool? They’ll wait till most retail investors jump into the bandwagon, take profits and run. Coordinated buy /sell. “Sell” the same propaganda, news and hope through these analysts at those popular financial TV shows!
Timing based on fndamentals and charts, exponential moving averages, RSI, Stochastic etc.
When will the cftc be run out of town by all you good people ? I hope I live to see it !
God Bless you all. Thank you Martin for all you do !
They will only let us share so much of the profit before they change the game !
I’m against corporate corruption, government corruption and any other corruption, but it never seems to go away and no one ever seems to pay. My question is, how do I get in on it?
I have no idea how they time the market but do know this. I have never learned how and it has cost me big time over the past 25 years. I would love to have someone I could really trust to advise me on when to buy and when to sell. Someone who isn’t marketing stocks and bondso or annuities and thus has no bias. Simply someone who has good research skills and knowledge of historical perspective to guide me.
The on;y way we are going to pay off this 15 trillion dollar debth,is too inflate the money supply 14-16-% a year just to stay afloat!! In farm commodities we have had 1200 to 3,000 per cent inflation since the mid 70s, with Eisenhowers balance budget and the 80s farm depression all throwed in. So can you imagine what the next 35 years will look like!!! Look at your grandchildren tommorow and picture them steeding off a wheel barrow of 100 dollar bills to go get a loaf of bread. or the democrats probably think the money grows on apple trees.! borrow borrow borrow.
a possible simplistic nearterm solution for portfolios ———straddling the assets——-35% upside 35%downside 20%etfs t-bills 10%hard assets-gold silver silver plat oil etc hope for best
To know when to buy and sell, one has to indentify a PRODUCT that has NO PLAN.
Then RIG it to FAIL. Then have a TRIGGER man BUY the PROUCT for 1 cent on
the dollar. Then perform a “miracle” by FINDING a CUSTOMER. Now the PRODUCT has VALUE. Only huge corporations and the super-rich get invited to this PARTY. These are INVITATION only BARBECUES. This person has never been invited. So; in conclusion, there is no SECRET weapon or TIMING tool. All the little people get is NO ACCESS and OLD news.
It’s simple, insider trading. The’re like cockroaches when you see one (catch one) you can bet their thousands you don’t see.
Barry
It is amazing that ALL these banks & investment houses sold millions/billions of srcondary issues ator near the present self-inflated(mutual funds/etf’s/etc.) prices !!!!
ARE WE MASOCISTIC(SHORT MEMORIED???) OR WHAT ???
HOW MANY BILLIONS $ WILL BE LOST BY THE US CONSUMER WITH THE NEXT LEG OF THE REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE ???? (COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL ARM)
THEN WHERE WILL THE ENTIRE WORLD BE W/O THE US CONSUMER ???
HOW MANY HAMBERGER FLIPPERS WILL MCDONALD’S HIRE ???
DOESN’T SOMEONE NEED TO BUY ‘EM ?!?!?
HARD TIMES ARE JUST STARTING !!!!!!!!!!!!
The answer to when “smart money” knows when to buy and sell involves proprietary programs (“black boxes”), information the general public is not privy to and analysis by highly professional people (they hire lots of them). While we cannot know what the reasons are for their decisions, we can tell the next day what they are thinking. Just look at the most active stocks on the NYSE (say the top twenty). Many days trading in just these 20 stocks will represent over 50% of the total volume traded on the exchange. It takes a lot of money to moving in and out of these stocks to generate this activity. That can come only from institutions, mutual funds, managed trusts and other firms (like hedge funds) with very large amounts of capital i.e. the so called “smart money.” Then just run and A/D on just these 20 stocks. It clearly shows the start of the market down turn in July, 2007 and the current up swing. No indicator is perfect but this is one I’ve relied on for many years and I think you’ll find it useful also.
Good luck.
Mr. Weiss,
I love you like a brother but how could you ask such a question? surely you don’t believe these people play without knowing the outcome in advance? they own the casino. they know which machines are set to payout big because they controll the chips inside. they are gangsters running their game on everyone else. when john gotti had to talk to sammy the bull they met in person and took a stroll. that’s why they sent geithner to china. to bring the plan in person. we are slated for extinction. there is no room in the new world order for an independant group of people who do not have to do as they are instructed. they do not have to worry about timing because they know where the next shoe will drop. it’s their shoe. when bernanke said all the tools at our disposal he was talking manipulation and intervention. the latest headlines shout, GM breakup opens the door for foreign automakers. the last bastion of American strength is gone, divided up around the world. now the chinese will be making our military vehicles. you and i will NEVER have access to the same tools they use. they are not for public disemination. the only way to make sense of what’s going on and why is to ask yourself, “CUI BONO”. the answer to that question is “no one i hang out with”. what happens to profits when they decide no one on the planet except them needs to have more than $500,000.00 in personal net worth? i’m sorry i’m ranting aren’t i. i’ll stop now.
Martin,
I use IBD for market timing. They use market direction with % of volumn up or down with some specifics. Their method seems very accurate. John
Your emails and newsletter have helped me greatly so thank you.
Is it possible to build a cartoon-like flow chart showing the various ways the government increases the money supply? That would go along way in assisting the general public to understand and believe what’s been happening regarding US monetary policy.
Your comments, please.
They mainly do not know when to buy or sell, particularly in uncharted times like now. As we all know some of the savviest investors in the world including Warren Buffett have lost billions of dollars of their own or their investor’s money over the course of the last twelve months.
If governments were clever enough to know when to buy and sell, they would also have been clever enough not to have got themselves into the current situation.
It still says on the money ‘IN G-D WE TRUST’, perhaps that’s a good starting point?
Be well,
Daniel
I read that someone tracts inside company investing to learn when they are buying and selling in order to find stock signals. I do not have privelege to that information. I am just confused and uncertain. How can the market keep going up when GM has gone bankkrupt?
Thanks for keeping me informed.
Dear Dr. Weiss,
Thank you for providing credible research that allows us to see through the market hype!
I’m with Claus in the Contrarian Fund; but I also am finding opportunities to purchase
small quantities of stock in strong companies whenever any negative news is posted.
Then a few days later when good news comes out, sell the same for a small profit.
This volatility seems to form a market rhythm that could completely distract someone
without the visibility that you have provided…..visibility that prudently guards against taking too much risk at this time.
Yes the dollar will fall and unemployment rise. Stocks will nosedive again. Your offer of steering my investment into money markets your fund will be using sounds just perfect and a lot of fun for me but I do not have much to invest. You could suggest a minimum realistic sum. I would learn a lot and enjoy the ride but to start any job I need to know what is likely required to finish it.
I am a widow and an orphan. I know that timing is everything. I am not a gambler. I am a member of the Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. I have read the sales pitches from Martin Weiss Safe Money Report for years and I concur. I am in this for the long-haul because my retirement funds need help. I would like to know more if you have a tool which would help with timing. In reading what you write, you seem to be way ahead of the pack in predicting what is most likely to happen. And you are right on. But the information you are predicting is too vague for someone like me to act upon. Thank you for all of your research and insights and your having a grip of what is really going on with the economy, (not to mention history) but a timing tool would be most helpful.
Martin, I think the market will turn back down again. How do I know when the right time to get back in comes?
Thanks for the guidance,
Doug
Dear Martin,
Thanks for providing discussion of so many things that one cannot find anywhere else!
I think that we are in a classic “New Deal” era, only this time around, and without the discipline imposed by the gold stanard of yore, we risk total loss of faith in ALL global currencies for at least some period of time. While it may take a decade, I do believe that the flexibility and entrepreneural spirit of the US economy will ultimately win out. I just cannot see this happening until we find firmer footing for our own currency relative to the rest of the world at least. I would be interested to know your thoughts on bringing back some form of the gold standard or gold certificate ratio in order to re-impose some discipline, not only on our own “keepers of the currency”, but on the ballooning size of our gov’t. The US, at least for now, is still the largest holder of gold bullion in the world. When will we play this card to shore up our own currency? At USD .72, .62, .52,…..WHEN? Thanks again for all of your efforts to teach us how to protect ourselves at such a critical time in our collective histories.
DEAR MARTIN:
NATURALLY, I WOULD LIKE TO ACCESS SOME BETTER TIMING TOOLS. THE PRO’S CERTAINLY USE THEN IN HEDGE FUNDS, ETC. (READ ” WAY OF THE TURTLE” BY CURTIS M. FAITH). THEY TRADE WITH AN “EDGE”, JUST LIKE THE CASINOS WITH GAMBLING. SURPRISED YOU GUYS DON’T DO THE SAME THING. I HAVE DEVELOPED MY OWN UNIQUE TOOLS THAT WORK QUITE WELL TO GIVE ME THIS EDGE. INTERESTED IN DISCUSSING THIS IN MORE DEPTH, OR DO YOU HAVE A “NOT INVENTED HERE” RESTRICTION?
AL
I am sure the market is manipulated. Without any question the market will drop. It would be nice to know will it start.
Would it be better to go the option rout, ETF.s or stock?
If governments, central banks, and huge corporations and even Warren Buffet had an absolute fail-proof timing tool, then California would not be bankrupt, GM and Chrysler would not have failed, and “to big to fail”AIG, Citigroup, etc. would not have needed endless bailouts from a totally inept, amoral Congress that has bankrupted America. Buffet would not have lost millions recently which he acknowledged that even he did not heed the warnings of the dire downturn. Contrarian investments, as Weiss Research has expounded, are the most effective tools in the midst of a terrible international economic recession/depression. Blind greed, following the crowd and lacking common sense have their price and we have paid dearly.
It seems like there is some kind of conspiracy on Wall St that allows the big trading houses/brokers & institutional investors to manipulate the markets for their own benefit, often after trading hours end. It would be great to know how this all works and be able to get a piece of the pie they have long been feasting on while we little guys have been getting burned.
Am I crazy or is this really going on?
Richard M.
yes I would be interested in timing buy & sell timing!
Yes,Washington has inside information to give them knowledge of
which stocks to buy, and when to do so.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates do quiet well also, but
Washington & Politicians MAKE situations to cause certain stocks to benefit them.
Mr. Weiss, Do YOU have any way to help us Investors know when to buy, (and sell) certain stocks?
Ever, Chris Hicks
I am not sure they have a secret weapon but I think they have a team of experts watching for fundamental and technical signals and are good at interpreting them. What you say and write about makes so much sense but the trick is to be able to apply it to today’s market and make a profit. It’s not easy!
I believe the “Insiders” (corporate executives & government leaders) trade information and manipulate the market with their influence and the large cash hordes at their disposal. They also hire successful analysts to assist them in procuring information. While associating, colleagues naturally share opinions, ideas etc. Its difficult to fault them for using information to gain profits., provided the information was not specific and it was shared casually in conversation rather than as a deliberate attempt to illegally manipulate markets. It is natural for someone to consider everything they know when making decisions. Aren’t we, in effect, attempting to do the same thing by acquiring information from you, and other sources, in order to make informed decisions on how best to apply investments for our own benefit? Yes, I’d love to have a trustworthy way to analyze when to buy/sell. There are lots of newsletters out there that claim to have the perfect system, but at this point, I’m such a novice at investing that its difficult for me to comprehend them enough to be useful. I really do require having my hand held for now. I am trying to educate myself, and have even moved all my investments to a self directed investment company. Like so many others, I am placing implicit trust in your suggestions. Although I would value the information you suggest, I just don’t have the money for more newsletter subscriptions. Please don’t bait me for yet another offer. I realize you are in the business to make money, but if you truly are interested in helping, couldn’t you offer a greater variety of information in one or two newsletters rather than requiring me to subscribe to multitudes of them?
Regarding your advice to place all cash in T-Bills; I went to a couple of your recommended funds, but the minimum requirement to set up an account with banking privileges scared me off. Perhaps you could clear up my concern. When it says the account requires a minimum investment of $10,000 be held in the account, does that mean it has to be held in the bank account, or in investments within the account? I can deal with the larger minimums for check writing, but it would be difficult to hold $10,000 in the account long term without using it to increase my portfolio. Is it worth setting up the whole shebang if I’m just going to turn around and invest the $10,000 right away? Also, I am managing a Trust, and my husband’s investments too, so there are three separate accounts that would need to be set up each requiring a minimum balance correct?
I appreciate the wise advice you offer, as well as what is provided in your other newsletters. For me there is a fine line between being totally paralyzed and unable to make the moves necessary or being swayed to invest according to every persuasive suggestion. I don’t think things will ever be the way they were, but I’m hopeful that with your guidance my family will be better prepared for the new “normal”.
Please forgive my lengthy response.
Respectfully,
All I can say is that the very successful value investors like Warren Buffet, make now secret of the fact, that they only act when conditions of extreme undervaluation present themselves in a stocks price, and as long as the stock remains cheap (ie earnings outgrowing price), they just don’t sell, and they don’t have much faith in the predictive power of charts.
Martin — we’ve ALL suspected for years that insider information (oh, that’s supposed to be illegal, right??) has run all the major financial markets. Who are these people and WHY do they have this much power and control?? How can this be happening? How does the average investor have a prayer?
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell? – They have information before others and have enough money to manipulate markets.
Do they have a secret weapon — perhaps a timing tool that most everyday investors simply don’t have access to? Possibly, but I think it is based on what they decide and not a secret formula. Paulson, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and the rest of the crooks are currently making the rules and our government is backing them – totally corrupt and wrong and the middle class will be pretty much wiped out in 3 years, just wait and see what happens.
And, if there was a way for you to get access to the same timing signals they use, would you want to use them, too? No, because I would not trust it. I believe in putting money on the trend, outside the dollar, and a good percentage in real money (gold and silver). If you make 10% on shorting a stock and risk loosing much more, what is your gain if the dollar depreciates more than 10% (after fees of course)?
it can only be insider trading in connection with manipulation. those two things go hand in hand, and obviously it’s criminal.
they agree on a target upfront, have the ratings “changed” , and jump in or out accordingly.
i would love to get that kind if insider information and would certainly make good use of it
I think your question is similiar to draw poker,if its aces to open and someone opens you have only a pair of jacks ,well statistically you will lose.
Now that the banks have pumped up their earnings through shady at best accounting tricks they are issuing new shares of stock at hyperinflated prices. Shame on them. Sell your bank stocks now, that is what the banks are doing.
I have been following your website for years & as a 80 year old investor I find it stimulating – I live in Regina ,Saskatchewan the home of Uranium – Tar Sands, Oil ( Bakken play – South East Saskatchewan ( Crescent Energy ) & Coal – probably the richest Province in the world.
I have researched all the small players who have property & have invested in these areas – We have a Premier ( Brad Wall ) who is open for business . Conservative Party of course.After many years of NDP rule it is a breath of fresh air.
Martin,
I believe the “big Boys” use contrary thinking and timing. They are rich and diversified enough to take risks and their investment thinking is long term, but they are not adverse to short term profits. They have pre-set their accetable profit percertage(s) and are disciplined enough to take their profits when those percentages arrive. Their age old plan is buy when evryone is fleeing the market and sell when “everyone” has the buy-buy mentality. Yes timing tools would be an asset to me.
Carlton Olson
Thank you for all of Weiss’s most interesting economic input.
However, it may be that our knowledge is less than complete and therefore, caution should prevail. Should the worlds mainstream economies reflate jointly, while their remains higher than normal levels of unemployment, with idle output capacity, time may permit a more gradual international debtor creditor readjustment. The risks for the banking system will clearly remain for a number of years.
The foregoing in no way negates the Weiss analysis, but should be perceived in a balanced manner.
With best wishes,
Brian UK.
Furthermore, I wish to raise is the comparison often made with that of 1929. The present conditions of the Western World are so much more affluent that the down turn would have to be considerably more savage to engender the same level of economic and societal suffering.
I think the reason the people you mentioned are able to buy and sell at the right time is
quite simply that they control, or at least are in a position to manipulate, the markets.
They deal in such large numbers that they can drive the market the way they want it to
go, for a period of time, and when the time is right they can simply change direction, but small investors are needed to be suckered in to provide the funds for them to take as their profits. In the case of the government they use allied institutions, Goldman Sachs for instance, to act as their main catalyst, lately by using taxpayer bailout funds
to play the market, then repay the taxpayer with the profits.
You raise an interesting question about how the people who actual run the economy and government time their buys and sells. So I will ask you how was it possible that in the days ahead of September 11th, 2001, the put option volume on United and American Airlines stock jumped 10 fold? Somebody knew something.
Tell me the answer to that question and we will solve a whole lot of problems about cui bono? Who benefits? Who plans these economic shocks?
We know that the panic of 1907 was in large part manipulated by the leading Financier of the time, JP Morgan. Hmm, ….that name sounds familiar….
I know you don’t like to get too, too controversial, since it might offend some subscribers. but wouldn’t it be useful to bring out the issue of the Working Group on Financial Markets, created after the 1987 crash. Some think that it is manipulating markets. What do you think? Can you spot the points where it will artificially create trend reversals? Given the fact that this rally has gone on over 700 Dow point more than I think most people expected, timing is apparently easier discussed than executed.
Some people use the VIX and trade counter to the VIX.
They know fear & greed runs the market and are experts at knowing when sentiment has changed. Am not there yet but trying to learn these skills.
Others decide the moment they enter a trade when they are getting out.
I use trailing stops and move them up as the stock rises to protect myself from greed.
Also, am conservaive about my stop losses. try to sell after a stock drops 10%.
This is sometimes the hardest thing to do.
But, it protects the money you need to try again.
i agree with you a hundred percent. The stock market decline is based on so many sound indicators (jobless rate is higher than figures touted) inevitable inspite of what the wall street bulls n spin doctors r saying. the world is shifting away from the US dollar as a reserve. I for one believe we are due for a collapse. Unfortunately. At the rate of the extent of disconnect between hard data n psychological ‘consumer confidence’ this collapse will be even more painful the longer the rally holds. Luckily I was listening to your sound research before the fall 2008 collapse. I did not get hit. But I’m scared for those americans who have such confidence that the govt will be able to get us thru this and are playing stocks esp those near retiring and want to make up for their losses in their 401K’s and don’t see the risks of playing this market. They have this illusion that the fed govt can get us thru a crisis this huge. Although some have held positions in gold and other non US markets, there is this false optimism not guided by logic that we’re at the point of recovery. Gulp! No amount of discussing things logically work. Not the mortgage rate about to escalate further, nor the jobless rate set to expand further etc etc.
Martin,
What effect will the American administration, which appears to be Keynsiam in nature, have on the stock market?
I don’t think they know at all, they just gamble in the biggest world-casino.
If and when they know, they let common people get sucked and they unload on them all they do not want. the way they do it is being cheerleaders, fairy-tales tellers, nothing else.
good luck to all
How do I think the govt and rich know when to get in and out of markets?They have access to the best information and advice that money can buy – unfortunately, most of us dont have the kind of money that costs.
The Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund, VFIRX, contains treasuries from 1-4 years. I know that you recommend TBills with less than 1 year maturity, but I’m having a hard time finding a fund that I can purchase through my 401K. Is VFIRX acceptable, or can anyone recommend a better choice?
I have a question. I recently have been marketed for a program of learning how to purchase “Payment On Demand Certificates” which purport to produce more than 200% returns in 3 years. My question is whether the companies which sell these certificates may not survive to pay them off after 3 years in the current market environment. REC
In these times of low intrest returns, what is a safe decent income producing investment?
We are so overwhelmed…my husband and I pulled out our whole IRA portfolio from the market in April to prevent further loss. Since that point we have been trying to figure out what to do with it. We were frustrated in that we had no control in how our IRA money was invested. The financial advisors we worked with had no vested interest in us staying afloat, since it was not their money. We felt we could do better directing it ourselves . Now that we have taken this approach, the regulations and IRA mumble jumble has overwhelmed us, not to mention, how and where does one invest a retirement portfolio with our present economy. We wish there was an IRA program to help the self directed investors to set up an effective portfolio and feel confident in what was being done to protect their retirement. Does anyone have any ideas of where we can find this assistance. We are also very skeptical and really do not know who to trust to help us make these decisions. Does Weiss Financial have any investment guidelines for retirement portfolios?
Martin, I have always been a long term investor, as was my parents and grandparents. This year that has changed. At the first big drop in the First Quarter I sold all my IRAS investments and put then into cash and treasury funds. Later on after some bear market rallies I sold all my Individual account and put that in the same positions. This was after an almost 50 % loss that my financial advisor did nothing to avoid or take corrective actions. Now, I need to increase my portfoilio, and the only way I can see to do it is to invest in some the positives that are being suggested by the folks in Uncommon Wisdom. I would love to know how to analyze and know when to make the moves with minimum risk. The tools are essential to success, if used properly, to every successfull person; whatever, the profession I would very much like to have you offer them to me and most likely others would also.
Keep the tourch burning. I’ve used 1 broker and 3 investors advistors prior to joining the MDCP and all combined have not provided anywhere near the information that your company has in just 3 + months. Thank you.
Martin and friends of M&M, a couple of points:
I bought and read your book… in the same day! You’re spot on.
To corroborate Martin’s point pick up a copy of “The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression”-don’t have the author-lent the book to my brother. Just copy the title and do an Amazon search. The government, et al, are doing everything all over again-it’s just bigger, and faster in 09 vs 30’s. Martin is spot on. History is repeating itself.
All of you should remember the Stock Market is a only vehicle to distribute equities, not a vehicle to make everyone rich.
This “rally” is based on weak volume; conspiracy maybe, greed and a lack of morality definitely; unsophisticated investors (pretty much everyone!) need to get in in sufficient quantity so the strong hands can pull out.
The Fed doesn’t have the money to prop up Treasuries forever; soon they’ll be squeezed by the bond vigilantes as yields continue to shrink; with the Fed propping up yields, they’ll sell before the Fed does and the Fed will get squeezed. Even Bernie Madoff couldn’t keep his scheme going. On this scale we don’t have to wait 10 years like Bernie; probably 10 months.
Sadly, we’re moving not to a socialist country, but really one of fascism. Capitalism can’t return (and a free market it needs-not this mixed market) as us boomers, in trying to give more to our children, created a generation that has grown accustomed to handouts, immediate gratification and really lack the morality of our parents. Being contrarian will help you keep from getting screwed by the our own generation in power, and the generation we birthed.
SSA, while in deep trouble is being moved to provide benefits to illegals; they didn’t pay into the system! PBGC estimates (probably low) that pension funds are $1T underfunded. The Feds are more worried about deflation than inflation, so the presses will continue to run. The play is the same, only the actors have changed.
When the chaos happens, as throughout history, only tangible resources (gold, silver, oil, gas, food, and land-not homes, LAND) increase in value. Emerging markets, more “free” and capitalistic than us and bearish ETF’s are new inventions that also increase in value with the coming calamity.
Like D-day, the explosion of action will be awesome to behold. The aftermath, and cost, also not so pretty.
Lastly in this rant, read Ayn Rand. She called this 50 years ago; what would happen if we followed a path. That too is spot on as we’ve followed it.
With Martin, History, and Rand, I’ve triangulated my position. I’ve moved my assets from ground zero on which most of us stand.
Thanks Martin for providing the third point of reference to know where NOT stand!
Being a bailbondsman i see the poorest part of our nation and i have been doing this for 30 years. They now are going in stores and eating food without paying and leaveing the wrappers on shelves. The so called coming war will be against those WITH against those without. You better arm yourselfs against your neighbors.
But! But! But! Isn’t the market showing indicators pointing to its crashing UPWARD a la Zimbabwe????
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell?
– they simply go contrarian to mass euphoria by following major trends?
sec is not doing their job,they should tell it as it is,so should cnn,cnbc but they are all intimidated and afaid of the truth but the truth will always prevail in the mean time becareful.the pied pipers of the financial world are trained experts at deception we small investers are no match ,it would be like trying to defeat an expert at anything,difficult.it was the pied pipers that led us into all this mess a man must think for himself.i noticed the hedge funds are back at it again with large profits in may/09 watch out below.william
WHEN YOU ADD IN THE OTHER FACTORS TO THE OFFICIAL JOBLESS RATE…..WHAT IS THE RATE—-SOMETHING LIKE 16% ??
A GUESS ON MY PART.
I APPRECIATE ALL THE INFORMATION THAT YOU ARE DISPENSING…I HAVE FOLLOWED YOU FOR YEARS AND THINK YOU ARE THE MOST RELIABLE OF ALL.
THANKS,
LEN
This government continues to lead us down bankruptcy path. WE must control bail outs and conserve our money to help our people restore confidence.
No bookie worth his salt puts good money on a horse with a poor track record. That being said, nor should we. Intelligence dictates that we follow those with great track records rather than playing the fool who follows foolish advice. Helping the “little guy” is one I’m interested. Most of us are hard-working and need assistance in keeping ourselves from bad advice and worst, thieves! None of us want to be financially molested any more.
what about shares in
Sydney Australia .SAUNDERS , should i sell them
Since capitalism (at least as it’s practiced here in the US) is consumer driven why are the power brokers striving to further concentrate the money at the top? Concentrating money in the hands of the few effectively destroys the consumer base. If you’re only earning 8 or 9 dollars an hour are you going to buy a $30,00 car or a $300,00 house? I know, with enough leverage all things are possible. When will this madness end?
SAUNDERS SHARES IN SYDNEY AUSTRALIA ANY COMMENT ARE THEY ANY GOOD?
I believe that the greatest folly ever visited upon all of us is that the very same people responsible for keeping watch on the economy are the people now stumbling around trying to undo what they’ve already done – again without success. I also believe that following the direction of the Contrarian Portfolio may be the very best way to cope with what will be visited upon us by the incompetents then and now in office.
I guess that many of these HIGH STAKE PLAYERS on the stock market are professional
gamblers and often they are able to swing share price of the individual company or even
that of a group of companies in a given sector of economy, into desired direction. If you
know which way market will go, you always be able to make profits! No secrets here.
Martin,
Under modern portfolio theory market timing is a no no. The theory is not modern and does not properely define “risk”. The old 60/40 portfolio is dead because it is now apparent that corporate bonds are highly subjected to the stock movement. Therefore the old 60/40 portfolio really contained hidden equity risk. We greatly need a new definition of risk. If you can provide a new definion of risk then we can construct a new portofilo and properly market time it.
more information on currency markets would be interesting and helpful as I do forex trading.
thank you.
Investment “timing” is rather reading the trend before it becomes a trend and/or realizing a true trend among promoted trends. Investing is more a management of money where a “feel” for the times can only be gained by a constant input of balanced information ultimately judged with nonemotional graphs and open-mindedness. The advice of those with agendas exemplifies anti-advice. Political entities have only agendas to base decisions, while markets, in the end, reflect the true beliefs, values and desires of the whole. The market manipulation on exhibit today is a grand attempt to control those beliefs. When this bubble of mass anti-information bursts, markets will correct the aberrations without regard for who you are or what agenda you believed. Thank goodness we can still make our own decisions based on our own beliefs.
Please put a section into your next Money and Markets that deals with your purchase of land and other S. American assets. I am interested in how friendly the natives may be to an American expat living for 6 mos or more in a S.A. or C.A. country.
(I do not have a Brazilian wife, no slight there, but take that into consideration when you analyze the difficulties as well as the advantages of relocating.)
Thanks.
Ed Kernish
yes, my money is in cash and for a small investor sometimes your programs cost more than I can afford, also where can I see your sucess rate for all your programs,l been a member of safe money a long time but only hear about the profitable ones thanks peter
Insider information is wide spread and those who have it and share it do so within a very tight fraternity of trust. Clues to those who do not get these “freebies” must be harvested as facts in research in order to have a fair chance to inform investors at the expense of the ingnorant masses of people who rely on the lastest news rumors and marketing gimmicks as their guide. Anyone who believes in the accuracy of mainstream investment sources probably beleives that there is such a thing as an expert. Experts are just good liars who believe their own ignorance.
I subsribe to your service because you and yours are well informed on facts and facts are the only expert.
I agree with you. There is now a dawn chorus from Euro-Pacific Capital
Peter Schiff, Prof.Woody Brock, Full Circle Asset, etc.,etc., Are they all
wrong in seeing a “big downturn” coming? I don’t think so. If more
evidence is needed what about the big Eastern sale of Barclays Bank shares.
Those people, it is reckoned, picked roughly the present market Top.
Many, Many Thanks for your great insight. It has saved my bacon!
Kindest Regards and God Bless. Mike Spenser. In the Isle of Man.Home of the TT.Races
I am about to retire, I need somewhere that I can place my 401K that will allow modification of the investment to maximize profits.
May I commend you on your voluminous list of comments. Your willingness to print the bad with the good you have accomplished is favorable to your reading public. This open policy gives you great insight in these well rounded public opinions. Keep up the good work as there are not many financial advisors of your quality in this market place.
Dear Martin,
Answer, no, I don’t think they have “special tools”, but, I do think major investors coordinate their moves and with enough money are often able to to “push” the market into the direction from which they can soon later profit. Call it market manipulation if you like. I do think this is very common and goes on all the time between wealthy parties.
If you watched the market action last Friday afternoon, (or any of most Friday afternoons), many times huge swings occur for no obvious reason other than for them to set the stage for Monday or Tuesday’s profits from buying back the same position at a lower price. For example, last Friday, the TBT had been trading up about $1 and change all day long reflecting higher interest rates now occurring. Suddenly, in the last 20 minutes of trading I watched while my nice profit quickly was shaved from over $1 per share to about $.23 per share for no reason other than great amounts of selling pressure with few buyers. During that same 20 – 30 minutes time, volume more than equaled all the prior volume for the entire day, making one feel that suddenly and for no reason interest rates had suddenly reversed direction and began falling for no apparent reason; tempting many small investors like myself to also get on the sell wagon quickly while there was still a 23 cent per share profit available on the day.
But, I didn’t sell my position since the fundamentals here are crystal clear – the fed is borrowing historic amounts of money and printing even more than ever even monetarizing a large chunk of it buying our own Treasury Bonds with our own printed paper money with no backing. This can only lead to falling bond prices as the market gets more and more flooded with worthless paper diluting the value of all US Bonds, causing interest rates to rise for the foreseeable future – until we have something we can sell to the world that has true value added and is in great demand, which aside from few very specialized food products and perhaps some exotic weapons, (our standard most profitable export), we presently don’t have.
In any event, I believe, in this case, the price of the TBT (and many other assets I was not watching – including gold) was artificially driven down by accelerated selling on the part of the very wealthy, only to be quickly bought back as soon as many other investors sell into the movement unable to afford a temporary loss. Unfortunately then, these same small investors will be reluctant to get back into the same ETF fearing another quick and untimely loss.
The question then becomes, how can a small investor like me tell when such a move is real or being forced by wealthy patrons through market manipulation however it may be termed? If I buck the trend and buy on such a dip on an item I am not well familiar with, I may well be on the wrong side of the trade the following week and realize an even greater loss, while luck alone would be needed to keep me on right side, the intended (by them) side of the trade.
I do realize that I am talking here about something more akin to gambling than to investing, but this market moves very fast even more so on the ETF’s and of course twice as fast on a double inverse ETF such as the TBT. These are not meant for one to invest in long term, but a handsome profit can be realized if one is on the right side of market movement within just a few days.
During 2008, my “professional investment advisers” lost for me more than 50% of my already too small retirement account and I am already 62 years old and unable to work any longer to supplement my account with further deposits, so I feel I MUST try and make profitable trades quickly in order to survive in future years. We’ve (especially older folks like me) just seen the tremendous damage “buy and hold” positions can cause, and there’s not a cent to be made in interest bearing assets, so trading the market profitably and quickly and not having to wait for the inevitable market fall is about the only game in town.
Any help here is greatly appreciated. (I am a 2 year charter member of Contrarian Portfolio and there I am down even more than Klaus as I’ve bought larger positions than he has, so some balance with profitable trades in the meantime is an absolute necessity for me. I was doing great with gold, but its failure to punch through the $1,000 mark last Friday and subsequent large drop later in the dayu gives me pause there as well thinkiong perhaps gold has seen a temporary top and now will retrace again before a more significant rise to come a long time in the future.
Thanks for reading, please feel free to post of reply personally to jim@glassmoyer.net.
I think the best investors get the best information from the best experts. They look at basic long term fundamentals, coupled with market cycles and possibly some information we as the public never hear. They ride the big wave and are patient, amassing large gains.
Most of us trade with our gut, holding on to our losers to long and taking profits to quick, we look to our experts for insight, thats why we read your blog.
I am developing web sites for the future. the trouble is that I have been predicting this disaster for about 5 years – it will be the worst in history – the financial houses have been supporting trades with collateral they did not own and that is fraud – of course some government ministerss new this was happening – if the truth was told there would be civil riots but what is going to be difficult to swallow is that the security for paper collateral has dropped and will continue dropping. this affects the international reserve collateral value which means support for world bank, imf, various national banks and countries is now of sufficient value to be much help and even then there is the problem of finding the cash to match and use on the streets of the world. actually there is cash and it is available – but it is preferred that it does not get into projects in USA or UK (or most of the bigger players of EU).
You are right that stocks will fall and that any short lived rises may be manipulated so that the manipulators hype up the green shoots; let the populus invest then as stocks rise the manipulators cash in leaving the sheep with more losses. Nothing changes – that has been happening for at least 20 years to my understanding — but there is a way to pinpoint buying and selling moments. my colleague used to manage some funds for Merryl boston office and was always correct even though the so called experts kept shaking their heads. – average return without any shorts or hedges was around 20% per month and if left to compound means investors could soon take out capital and leave profits in to continue rising. sometimes there could be buy/sell signals more than once per day.
that’ll be enough for now – I must go back to my work of project design and economic develiopment strategies for communities and countries.
Hello:
Yes, I would like to know what the “insiders” know but since it seems that many are manipulative and have no conscience, I am not sure I’d be willing to play things the same way.
Aren’t there some quality stocks to invest in that are up and coming such as genetics, health information technology and companies that are interested in getting into the alternative to oil business? Seems that a person could make a fair amount of money without feeding into the criminal activities that have created some of the current problems.
Thanks for the information thus far. Good to know someone has a clue.
Julia
marty,
BEEN SUBSCRIBING TO YOUR PUBLICATIONS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. AT THE BEGINNING YOU SENT ME A PAMPHLET WITH A MAKE BELIEVE ECONOMIC SCENARIO. IT ALL HAS COME TRUE EVEN STILL WORKING OUT TODAY. THANKS FOR SENSITIVING ME TO THE ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND TO ITS MOVEMENTS.
I USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND DID NOT LOSE ANY MONEY IN THIS PAST DECLINE, I AM IN FACT UP IN TOTAL FUNDS. THANKS FOR HELPING ME.
KEEP PREACHING THE FAITH. I HAVE NOT BEEN SHORTING BUT AM THINKING ABOUT IT IN THE PRESENT ENFOLDING MARKET. MY TECHNIQUE MINIMIZES LOSSES AND TAKES GAINS
PRUDENTLY.
ALL I REALLY AM INTERESTED IN IS PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL AND MODEST GROWTH.
THE TECHNIQUES I USE LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH.
ONCE AGAIN THANKS, AND TO LARRY TOO.
It’s a shame that you place mostly the far right Republican comments in the replies. The President has to date saved the country from a smash up that would have occured if drastic steps had not been taken. But this is probably not the end of our problems. Our major problems globally are overpopulation, unnecessary over-consumption, and over-spending during times of prosperity vs. saving for a rainy day. These things have helped lead to our contaminated air and water, extinction of species, and declining climate conditions. Think for yourselves—stop following the errors of the greedy.
Martin,
Regarding your question as to what the government, rich use to time their moves in and out of the market.
I submit that their timin is just that. They are the big monies that move the market. So my theory is their moves are self fulfilling in terms of the market direction and the associated timing.
Jay L.
Martin,
I like T.J. would like to know if you could do more for the “little guys” like me. I took your advise in the beginning of 2007 and rolled my 401k over to “Everbanks gold Bullion” investment. I didn’t have the $100,000 in my 401k but I did roll the entire 401 over.
I feel I saved myself from loosing all of it by leaving it parked in the 401k stocks that were spiralling into freefall. Now, I’d like to be able to take what little money I can and invest it into some stocks that will help me build for the dooming future. I was wondering if you have a payment plan that us little guys can afford to take advantage of some of the profits to be made during the bad times?
William,
i think that our treasury and our president are trying to lull us to sleep with there pie in the sky while hell is burning and thewealth is being spread around as OBAMA plans are working.there is no capitalism now just free give aways for those who do the least, the govt should and will take care of them instead of usthat actually try to help our economy and do the things that have helped make america great and stop the giveaways just opining joe
Dear Martin
I am an Australian (Perth, Western Australia), the State that has carried the rest of this country in royalties from iron ore, gold, oil, diamonds, nickel, etc for years.
We have a Prime Minister (Kevin Rudd) from the Labor Party (same as your Democrats) who was elected 18 months ago after 11 years under John Howard of the Liberal Party (Republican). Howard was voted out simply for “change and age” leaving in the “kitty” about $ 35billion. (If you are unaware, voting in Oz is compulsory..$ 50 fine penalty).
Rudd has copied Obama completely though a little more successfully. Nevertheless, he succeeded in giving millions to Italy, Greece, UK etc when he awarded over $ 10billion
to pensioners, many who had been brought to Australia by their children to become pensioners & then returned home, STILL receiving the Oz pension & all the perks.
Then a $ 40billion hand out…much of which went to people who were dead, dogs & cats in wills, and seven figure income earners proved to be a fiasco.
This preamble is to give you a background to my wonderful country.
I know Australian shares inside-out but know little about the USA market.
I would have loved to be in your “Contrarian Investment Group”, but over the last 20 months, the Aussie dollar has gone from US.72c to US .98c, down to US.60c, up to US.82c and today sits on US.80. Should your scheme have worked well, I could have paid into it when our dollar was about US.75c and redeemed my funds when both our dollars were equal. I have been to USA 31 times, mainly for skiing In Aspen & Vale but also I befriended the late Sam Walton who became my mentor.
I admire your newsletters…even the occasional pieces of chutzpah.
Best wishes and thanks for your many words of wisdom
Harry Gunzburg
I have not gone back into the market yet,following your advice yet i read several reports that say invest now. I’m confused!!! I went out of the market at 13,000 and have only bought a few shares sence than.Need advice!!!
James a jeffers
Martin,
This is the easiest question you have asked so far. The answer is simple – market manipulation and insider trading!!! Our government is currently being run by the financial guys, Goldman Sachs in particular. Its like a whos who of former Goldman employees. What better way to beef up your financial assets than engineer a rally to get investors back in the market. During a one week period in April, Goldman traded more stock on the NY exchange than the next 14 biggest investors combined! And they did it with our money! Whats that tell you? Whats next? Are they going to engineer another crash to sell bonds and drive down interest rates?
Chuck L.
Dear Martin,
Of course I would love to have the tools to know when to “take my profits”. I know how bogus the advice from so called “professional” brokers is. My dad lost almost 1/5th of his small fortune just within the 6 months right before he passed away last year. The broker kept saying “we’re in for the long haul”. Well, he might have been in for the long haul, he can keep charging the feels in the “long haul”. Meanwhile, my dad lost 100K. I appreciate your advice and teaching me how to really trade stocks and etfs so a person can make some real money!
Thanks so much
Gordon M.
I do need help to some how come out of this crisis finanicaly intact. tell me what to do and when.
I think they all have inside information and use it to their advantage to buy and sell stocks. It’s hard to trust anyone or any company anymore because there is so much dishonesty and greed in the markets. The average investor doesn’t stand a chance anymore without help from a true honest professional. And even a lot of the so called professionals can’t seem to get it right. That is why I thought I would give your Contrarian portfolio a try and so far I have been disappointed with the returns I am getting.
Bogue
First question answer; More than likely, “Inside information” on events, new products, etc. or most likely just reading market trends and using good logic.
Second question; Personally, I am not sufficiently knowledgable, in this new endeavor.
Third queation; Absolutely, Positootly!
Martin:
Regarding the unemployment figures released this week, you said: “This official number is grossly understated: It doesn’t even begin to count the millions who suddenly find themselves trying to live on a part-time income … or the millions more who have given up looking for a job altogether.”
There are two other categories I would ask you to comment on, first the number of people who have voluntarily or involuntarily cut their workweek to less than five days (or their pay) in order to spare fellow employees from job losses. How if at all does this factor into the unemployment numbers?
Second, can you give your thoughts again on the number of “make-work” jobs that the federal government creates that invariably skew the numbers. You mentioned the census bureau last month.
Thanks.
Ed
Friend Martin:
Your question was too broad. Generally, governments sell assets when there is absolutely no other alternative. They seldom buy equities. Central banks sell assets when they are strapped for cash (or bonus-time is approaching). In both cases indifferent amateurs are too often involved. Huge corporations buy stocks (1) when their pension funds grow too cash heavy (in many cases, a dart- or ouija-board would appear their prime method of choosing) or (2) when a consensus of in-house experts advises there is an imbalance between cash, inventory, debt–a whole raft of things. The super-rich would be the ones to watch for “signals.” First, it is their money they are dealing with. They seldom move in and out of investments without first seeing a strong profit potential, hence a large profit opportunity for them.
Would I want to use them? Only the latter. That, of course, will never happen, so my remaining best choice is the “Advice from Weiss.”
Most folks here (except Martin and Claus) need to understand something clearly. The SEC has clear regulations that state anyone with MORE than 1 Million Net Worth or $250,000 ($500,000 Couple) a year proven income are allowed to Invest in products that those with less than that amount are not allowed to do. People at this level are known as Qualified Investors. The fact is that Martin, and I would imagine Claus, DO Qualify. This is not a negative, it simply means that the SEC determined many years ago that people with this much TRUE worth can afford to invest in products that “retail” (that’s most folks) cannot or should not do. Mutual Funds are not the answer, and holding cash is not either, especially with the Inflationary process now in progress. BOTH are “long term looser” purchases. The shift in Society from a Manufacturing to Informational basis has forever put away the way most have been taught to deal with Money. In this game you have to be where the true “insiders” are..and that means as the small guy you have to be at the train station BEFORE the train arrives. Claus has the correct strategy…so…and I am going to say this one time and one time only…buy the Million Dollar Contrarian package and write off the cost on your 2009 tax filing, then DO as Martin and Claus are recommending in that fund. Martin is offering you the path that a Qualified Investor (like me) is taking and doing WITHOUT your first having to meet the SEC levels. ETF’s for the first time in History allow you as the retail customer to do as we do..and at levels you can afford. We that are of wealth want you to learn..we want you to have stability and security in Life, because the truth is there is more than enough wealth to go around. Once the Defined Contribution retirement plans at your jobs for the most part went away YOU had to learn to Invest or you would loose as is now happening. That is why the old way of going to schools, getting goods grades so you can get a stable job, and so on…will not work anymore. Markets and Investments of all kinds go down, and at other times they go up. But YOU are responsible to know how to Invest. YOU..not the company you work(ed) for. The trick is being in place BEFORE those moves begin and not leaving that position. Right now there are opportunities that will probably not happen again in a long time, and You CAN afford his program because the truth really is you will loose more than the cost even if you stuff your cash in the matress and never touch it. Lets say you have $5000 and that is it, that’s all you can afford. Buy per percentage; do what Martin suggests with his Million Dollars Fund. ETFs let you buy in. Over time you WILL gain..both experience and confidence..as well as funds. Yes..there is a seperate class of Investor, and for good reason the SEC has clear guidelines on who those people are or are not. Just a quick thought.. do you think Bill Gates or Martin Weiss for that matter were “long” Lehman Brothers or Citi in 2006/2007 like MOST of you were in your Mutual Funds or 401K’s? What are you going to do when that $5000 in the matress (Bank account) will not buy but MAYBE $3500 worth of goods in 5 years time due to Inflation?
Is very clear that the economy is in very bad shape and as you say is matter of time that the stock market will do the second leg down.
The problem is the timing, especially for short etf.
Short etf have a side effect, they do not replicate the exact opposite of an index, they loose value with time.
So catch the down trend is more difficult than catch the up trend, the timing is crucial.
What is left to be said,that has not already been said.I agree with the above!
To answer your querry, I think everyone who does options by the thousands of dollars each day have some big computer power that predicts what they want. There are many “ways” to program your data and it is always at their fingertips. But the data is too massive for a human to interpret, so the investor relies on pre-defined criteria which may be multiple to make the decisions, and they are automatically triggered. So, a margin of 10% is probably acceptable, but the small investor has more losses, because of our ego and no cleary defined strategy, and therefore we need to profit larger. I hope this makes some sense.
Ben
Just look at history and how governments have always led the masses for the benefit of the few. You can find warnings from many past presidents about the power of corporations and the wealthy. The printing of money and the control of the International Bankers are among the planning of everyone’s daily life along their line of what they think one needs to survive only. It does not matter what you thought of him JFK was a humanitarian and saw war for what it truly is. It seems every good leader in any government gets assassinated or any other person who could make a difference. If one wants guides to what is wrong in government and economy then do some research on quotes of presidents. You can even determine their character and what they think about the average person. “I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me, and causes me to tremble for the safety of our country. As a result of war Corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people, until the wealth is aggregated in a few hands, and the republic is destroyed. The Government should create, issue, and circulate all the currency, and credits needed to satisfy the spending power of the Government, and the buying power of consumers. By the adoption of these principals, the taxpayers will be saving immense sums of interest. Money will cease to be master, and become the servant of humanity.” – Abraham Lincoln “History records that the money-changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent plans possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money, and its issuance.”- James Madison FDR said, “In politics nothing happens by accident. If it happens you can bet it was planned that way” “I read no newspaper now but Ritchie’s, and in that chiefly the advertisements, for they contain the only truths to be relied on in a newspaper.”Thomas Jefferson “Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends [life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness] it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, and to institute new government” Thomas Jefferson. The Book, The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America by Charlotte Thomson Iserbyt everyone should read and you can download free.
Martin: Over recent two years, we’ve moved substantial ammounts of our family money into Vanguard’s Treasury Only MMF. We’ve been reading your columns for years and felt this reco was good for safe haven cash.
I was angered recently by Vanguards move to do away with this fund and “move” us into a more agressive money market fund which holds – get this – only “high quality bonds” of corporations and other such secure and high quality assets (except the short term treasuries which we depended on for our safety.) I was immediately angered and frustrated and even emailed them on this. The response was pathetic. Essentially, Vanguard claims the yields on short treasuries are too low to maintain the fund at 1$. So, we go to junk, corporate bonds, etc….
Questions: 1 Are all such funds going to be facing this problem? 2 If so, how do we protect our cash (aside from FDIC CDs which may or may not be fully protected) 3 Is it worth it to explore other mutual fund groups for all treasury mmf or is this type of investment facing extinction, along with “guy with a full time job and medical benefits?”
I thank you for any suggestions you can offer and appreciate what you do.
J
A Timing Tool.. Oh, yes, a semi accurate timing tool would be an answer to a maiden’s prayer. The closest tool I can think of is using a trailing stop loss on a percentage basis of probably 10%.
Do you think that the financial TARP recipients are using TARP money to buy their own stocks to prop up stock prices only to be sold at a higher price and then shorted? It seems that the weak dollar policy[unofficial] is to bolster profits based on exchange rate advantages?
A gal working behind the paint counter at Ace asked me about the markets and she tried to stay abreast of events as much as possible. She was very up to date on current events and said due to the events of 1) elimination of Glass Stiegel Act and Pay Go policy 3) relaxed regulations 4) interest rates too low for too long 5) creation of SIV’s to move risky assets off the balance sheets of banks and non reportable 6) derivatives are nothing more than a way to avoid compliance with regulations of the underlying asset 7) allowing banks to leverage capital base to up to 40% by Cox at the SEC 8) mark to market accounting 9) elimination of the up tick rule and 10) too much fiscal and monetary stimulus for years, one can’t help think that this whole financial crisis was orchestrated! She blew me away!
Hi Martin, Does the Plunge Protection Team “control” the price of gold and thus GLD, DGP, and SSP? Do they do this via some influence over UUP (US dollar). I would think that they would like gold to go up so that would help them devalue their debt with
what the US stores in Fort Knox. But I have learned that the last audit of the gold in
Fort Knox was conducted during the Eisenhower administration and that with Nixon taking us off the gold std, no further auditing has been done. Many believe the amount of gold held by the US is small since many of our creditor nations since Nixon
have demanded payment in gold. Or will gold just get driven up by inflation despite
the influences of the gov’t?
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell?
They receive the real data, not bits & pieces that the press releases.
Iknow you have a desire to help people but you are also in business to make money; however, I do not think you should be encouraging “ordinary” investors to engage in short-term trading.
I was wondering what happens to the banking and financial services industry when inflation hits? Are the fin sector inverse etfs a good bet/investment vehicle at that time? For example, I noticed a LOT of activity in FAZ.
Marty, you have done a great job in assessing the economy and the market. As a professional money manager for over 55 years, I have used both fundamental and
technical analysis in adjusting asset allocation at major junctures and have never
attempted to short term trade because it does not fit my investment temperament.
We were slow in reentering the market in 1974 and a number of our institutional clients
questioned our judgement { after saving them a large portion of their portfolios } so I
am not surprised with some of the comments you are receiving. I have participated in
this rally in a minor way by purchasing a few stocks that I had wanted to buy earlier
and looked good from a technical standpoint. I have known few short term traders, over
the years, who have had consistent success and I would be hesitant to advise your
clients to attempt to invest against or with hedge funds and others of their ilk.
From a business standpoint, unless you become more positive on the overall market,
I would also advise you and Knut to do the same. I utilize a large number of resources
in the economic, fundamental and technical areas and just 2 of the technical services
turned bullish before the run-up. I am happy to have preserved my portfolio and am
very comfortable missing, what I believe to be, a good sized rally in a bear market. It’s not whether you win or lose short term, but how much you have left in the basket in
the long term. Keep up the good work. Sincerely, Bill Johnson
Martin – In your recent excellent book, dated January of this year, you indicated you thought deflation was more likely than inflation. We have had the deflation and I expect it to last 4 to 8 months more, and then shift rapidly to high to hyper inflation. What is your inflation prediction now?
Dr. Phil (a planner and economist).
Question: How do the Governments, big banks and corporations know when to buy and when to sell?
Answer: They don’t! Otherwise the Governments, big banks, corporations and hedge funds would not have all gone broke in this latest economic crash. In fact they are dumber than I am. At least I got out 6 months ahead of the stock market crash.
I have some things to say about all of that:
1.) DO NOT GO SHORT. The Fed is printing money — how is that gonna drive stock prices down? To the contrary: if economy remains bad, banks will start buying assets instead of doing some lending. The US gov may also force the banks to buy stocks. The current rally looks VERY artificial. Not random at all. Additionally, the US will have its own problems during the next years or even decades. The best way to play that is probably by “shorting” the currency — one thing that cannot be manipulated by just one country/central bank. From my point of view: the higher the DJIA goes, the more the US has lost its importance in the world. The DJIA probably serves as the best indicator on how close the US is to Simbabwe. And it is an indicator everyone is watching. Think DJIA 100.000 is good? Think again. It would make it look like a worthless pile of shit. The next thing to think about: will the US gov let social security go bad? Do you *really* think they want to test what happens if 300.000.000 gun owners feel helpless and forgotten by the government? The money printing machines are on. And I don’t think they will stop anytime before we run out of cotton. (he – I own some cotton ;-) ).
2.) For me the best generic investment is LU0292106167. For non-US residents it allows to profit both from a weakening US$ and from rising commodity prices. For US residents it allows to profit from a weak dollar twice! (although I think US residents are not allowed to buy it…)
(This is no investment advice — do NOT hold me liable for any losses etc.)
Excluding inside trading, none have any more of a secret weapon, per se,
than you or I do, but with one enormous exception, those of us who invest
their own hard earned money, or have stark bare oversight as a fiduciary
person, with all manner accountablility to own up for, can only pray for the
good Lords help in selecting our choice of investment vechicles, after all
due diligence is done and said.
But all those that you mention, have no fear, as surely they all walk in valley of entitlement.
Since my return from Turkey,Greece and Egypt last October 2008, I felt an ergency to do something right, to do something with all of my education, to try and help people, a senior who could not prolong the agony of what she felt. I began talking to people, collecting my thoughts, writing to our newspaper, wrote a book for a good cause, and then began thinking of working free for my old commercial clients. I felt that way back than Egypt was so far ahead of us, they had cleaned their dirty streets and beautified their cities. Everything was moving at a faster pace than the last time I had visiited their 8 years ago. I felt it somehow, I knew the beginning of a downward surge was soming and the end result would be OK, but I had to help everyone I could in the meantime. So here I am still thinking this way, have joined a financial company and hopefully just hopefully my little input of my knowledge will help. God Bless everybody, we are going to neeed it. Sandy Smith,Edmonton,AB,Canada
Do you have an electronic tracking system to track your investments? Some of them do a very good job at projecting what is in the near future. I used to have one that was very good. It was called the Delta System.
Keep up the good work I am well pleased with your service. I to would like to make some quick profits on short term gains as I am trading inside my Roth IRA and don’t have to worry about taxes.
If it is too good to be true it probably is. Sounds like you are playing us with a question like that. You may be made right on all accounts of your warnings this coming week when the bond sales occur. I am very nervous. I have money going both ways on the market. Of course I don’t want it to go down. I don’t see that being healthy. Sideways with consolidation would probably be most healthy for all. I look forward to your guidance. Much appreciated for your hands on initiative to this point in a very stressful and historical time that will determine at what level of the food chain we will end up from now to the grave. ps. I don’t like making my own trades, but no one else seems to want to work that hard for the gains that are better than average.
Of course the fat cats know how to time the markets : they are the market movers.
And it takes one to know one. Think they dont know each other on a first – name basis ? I do believe it works like this : John calls Dick and says : ‘ h’mmm, the market looks a bit overbought , and Harry tells me the Fed is about to release some really negative data about M2 and MZM velocity. ‘ Dick : ‘ OK , buddy.’ A wink and a nod. Next day , massive selling lasting a couple of days. The punters get screwed.
I would like to comment on Mike Larson’s article about Geitners visit to China. I have been an investment advisor for the past twenty-five years. Geitner was doing what financial advisors have been doing since time immemorial. He sat down with his clients, the Chinese and did what is called a portfolio review. Like most other financial advisors facing a client whose portfolio is down, he squirms around in his seat for a couple of minutes and then blurts out “buy and hold, you can’t time the markets”. The next thing the financial advisor does is hope like hell that the client believes him. Unfortunately, from what I have read, the Chinese are far to sophisticated to be fed a spoon of pablum. The Chinese are in the economic drivers seat now and just like any new driver, they want to stay behind the wheel. If the Chinese can find an alternative to U.S. trade to support their economy say goodbye to the dollar and cheap debt.
Personally, I wish Geitner would get out of the Treasury where he can cost the tax payer trillions and go back to his earlier career at Goldman where the sandbox he played in was only good for directing a million here a million there and maybe the occasional billion. Better yet maybe he could go back to the New York Fed Reserve and get his old job back as the president of the New York Fed Reserve from what I understand, that is a pretty lucrative position. After all, his replacement (Freeman) just made a $3 million dollar Gain in three months trading on Golman Sachs during the Tarp negotiations. You know what, if I were the Chinese I would have asked Geitner why he isn’t minding his own back yard.
I’m just getting started in the investing and options markets. I really look forward to your advice on timing. Thanks for being a source I can trust
I think that investing has now become such a speculative endeavor that it resembles out right gambling.This has been brought about because so many tech tools are available to gauge probability.Therefore outcomes can be manipulated by those with resources to tilt the board one way or the other.To believe that following insiders is the key is not allways true.Tickerspy.com showed that the Soros fund was a large holder of lehman bros and took big hits on many other holdings.His sons actively manage the fund.George Soros and many other wealthy names were caught on the wrong side of the market.Even insiders cannot hold back market force from asserting itself eventually.Elliott Wave Theory combined with Socioeconomic observations are helpful tools in determining market movements and trends.Proactive trading indicator programs can show where strongest sectors and money flows are and show if the sector is overbought to give a probability to risk ratio.Geopolitical forces cannot be ignored.Groups such as C.F.R,Bilderberg and such command intellectual resources as well as great wealth to influence Global outcomes.Globalization with all its negative and positives has been a force that plays on the markets whether for the good or detrement of mankind is still ongoing.Do rougue countries invest in nukes to attract resources to themselves or to stimulate the military industrial complex of 1st world nations.Is there collusion on the part of geopolitical elite.In any case it is a factor for investors to consider. Hope this was helpful .Your friend Joseph,Thank you for your insights over the years Martin. God bless you.
Martin, Anyone can buy and sell stocks, the difficult part comes in when to buy and when to sell! Safe Money has been a great way tocut through the bull and get the insight needed to invest on the inverse side of the equation. Thanks.
I don’t think the super rich et al have to time the market, I think they make the market
by manipulation and speculation.
Alfalfa hay prices to the producer grower just dropped 60% this week.
Apple prices to the producer grower for the 2008 crop in the refrigerators just dropped to where the grower pays to dispose of them.
Credit lines are being cut in half by the banks in antipication of the impending losses in ag.
We all see it coming here.
Dr. Weiss,
Your website and blog were recommended to me by a friend and I’m looking forward to finding out more about your strategy. I have a strong interest in market timing (even Warren Buffet does SOME timing) and I’ve developed a simple tool available online for investors to use, at least that that part of their portfolio set aside for trading. With the market being more or less mob-psychology, a contrarian mind set makes the most sense.
Arley
We in California (Southern California) are finding that house prices are not dropping more than 10%. Yet we read ABOUT MAJOR WIDESPREAD FORECLOSURES. Is it true that possibly many lenders are holding back delinquent mortgages and are about to dump many more foreclosures on the market. Is there a timing that the Weiss group is aware of for more foreclosures to hit the residential market during or after the summer of 2009. Also,
is there a projected timing by the Weiss group for interest rates to rise and possibly when?
Ruben Buchak multiple subscriber
We’d be no more the fools
With the help of special tools!
I can use all the help you can provide!! Looking forward to your email.
Hi Martin,
I saw this whole thing coming and wrote a 20 page warning paper on the pending financial crisis. I e-mailed it on September 12, 2007, to every major bank, borkerage house and Federal Government official I could — including the White House, Federal Reserve, Treasury, House Finance Committee Chairman, Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Citi Bank, Bank of America, WaMu, UBS, Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan-Chase, Bear Stearns, etc. All of them laughed, thinking people like you and I were crazy, that it couldn’t happen — but they are not laughing anymore, are they Martin!
Near the end of October, 2007, I completed a search for the ONLY people I will ever trust — you Martin, and the entire staff you have assembled. Your advice and foresights have been an economic and financial model of perfection! Exact and timely!
Along with your economic, financial and investment advice, I have been useing Nirvana Systems software programs (OmniTrader, Visual Trader and SignalWatch), which are of immence value in spotting trading signals of stocks, futures and commodities — even market manipulations (if you know what to look for).
Please, please inform me if you think these are the best programs or if there are better programs, or methods I should be using to accurately spot trading signals.
Todd Borchers
Roseville, CA
In response to David J. Kovalik’s post on 6/5/09:
Your son and his “associates” are engaging in insider trading and is illegal. He should be reported to the SEC. He and you should know better to do this and then to announce publicly it is being done is not wise.
Just like many I am confused by the market and I am finding it untrust worthy. There seams to be no reason to why trending the way it is. Even inverse ETF are trending strangely. There are days were the Dow has gone down and it has not moved at all, or it has gone down. I was hoping for some insight on this and could you explaine Bata Slippage to me.
Because of the action of the market I am beginning to believe that the government and others are attempting to manipulate it. As a result rational market decisions are almost worthless as shown by the recommendation to purchase inverse etf’s. Of course, I would like to know the basis upon which the government is making these decisions, but I feel that the MDCP should be our timing vehicle. Please read between the lines on this.
I think that most people that are successful do a lot of research and try to follow the advice and experience of professionals like the Weiss team. I am invested in commercial real estate so I follow your thinking in that area, interest rates/unemployment/office vacancies, etc. You have a well informed and trusted group. Keep up the good work.And its free! Thanks,
Hi Martin:
I’m a Canadian, and even though the bulk of your research is in regard to the US economy, I believe that the Canadian market is usually not too far behind, as the US is our biggest customer. I must take this time to thank-you for “saving our bacon”. I subscribe to several of your services and back in 2007, I exited out of all mutual fund positions. I didn’t make any friends with my broker/friends, but at that time all profit had already been evapourated but at least our capital was still in tact! THANKS SO MUCH!
With regard to your question, I personally have to wonder if the individuals in which you speak, just simply have enough power influence and money to make temporary swings in the market and thus provide income opportunities for themselves. They couldn’t help but have “perfect timing”!
Mr, Weiss…Sir……
I feel you and your staff are missing the “main” point when you talk about America’s future.. It’s the SUPREME court…These 9 so called experts on constitutional law control this country for the foreseeable future..(till a moderate or one of the actual
judges is replaced by Obama)
Chrysler is a good example..If the court won’t hear the creditors case..or decides in Chrysler, Fiat favor..
Any and ALL of your bank, un-employement, credit, consumer setiment theories…..
Won’t mean a hill of beans….. Contract law no longer means anything. It is over!
Mr. Weiss
Where unemployee plays a factor..
It’s the supreme court that will decide our future.
If the don’t take the Chrysler-Fiat bankrupcy..
Or decide for the car maker….
All your theories will be out the window..
Fundamentals mean little in the short time frame when offset by media blitz and “happy talk”. Momentum per stock can turn on a dime regardless of strong fundamentals when a collateral industry gets a negitive vet. And commodities are being manipulated by countries to prevent safe haven investing away from the “funny money”. It is really tough, and the best guesses can be off by a month and wipe out an options put. It really makes a person stay in cash, but then inflation will wipe that out. I am betting (in this market that is a literal term) that the weight of all the damage will crash the media/white house happy talk bubble when the lack of effect of the stimulous money hits the investor class between the eyes, sometime around October/November when the back to school sales and the early holiday sales do not materialize. What does the Weiss Board say?
I am curious where a subscriber got the information about “none of the instutional investors are in the market”. I also am not sure what to think about this market. I went to a meeting the other day and listened to a Fritz Meyer, a senior market strategist with Invesco Aim and he had nothing but good to say about the market and how it was only headed up more from here. Totally confused.
Somebody knows when to buy. Looking at some of the charts I can see that significant profits have been made since early March. EEM, EWZ, FXI, FWLT,n IBM, & etc. “The trend is your friend” & sometimes, obviously, the fundamentals aren’t.
Any time we can get an edge in trading, I am all for it.
Governments, central banks and super rich investors ,don’t, I believe have timing indicators. They have large amounts of money to make a market and when they do they’ll take their profits.
Their secret weapon is of course money.
As to timing I’m not adverse to risk
you asked the question if large institutions and central banks have a timing weapon that the average investor doesnt. roflol this is the crookest mkt in the world the big institutions, floor traders and central banks control these markets almost to a tick or two. how do i no? i ‘am a professional trader with over 30years experience and when one see the games that these guys play where only 8% win and 92% lose. what other conclusion could u come up with. even vegas offer better odds than that, working on a 2% to a 8% advantage casinos regularly relieve players of their hard earned money iust one look at their magnificant hotels and their illustrious lifestyles and one can easily see that they are the winners. wallstreet beats them almost ten to one 1st off they charge one to play, you must pay comissions on everything u buy and sell. you must have a charting service which you must pay for data service and the more eloborate the more expensive. You must pay for all touting services and educational services you recieve which divides your investments capital into smaller and smaller incriments of which most these services are nothing but hype and sure way to lose the rest of your investiment capital. That all before you get to play. Now the rules on wallstreets game is we win you lose this is accomplished by various tactics that they employ throughout the game. Since they control every aspect of the game by regulating the rules on the investor and ignoring the rules for the institutions they allow the individual to be positioned at peril from the begining. Now once the game begins they work on two premises fear and greed with these two psycologicaly tools they can manipulate a trader into any position they want if he is a bull they can turn him into a bear before the day is over, this is done with the most sophisicated technology on earth. You see they control all the information that the individual traders recieve they can speed it up slow it down and even give false information to traders as to what is actually going on, by owning the technology that provides information to traders they are always tracking where the small traders are taking their stance. They know where every stop order will be excuted and where they can make the most amount of money, with the use of margin requirements they can wipe out profitible positions at any time, they r allowed to trade almost unlimited number of positions without having to pay the same comissions as a regular trader, a good example of this is seen at tops and bottoms of markets guess when these tops and bottoms are usually made in the sp500 for example one would think sometime between opening bell and end of day. roflol they do this while you sleep they will run the market up after hours for a top as many as 20 points higher only to bring it right back to the close of the previous day. what happened? well most all the individual trader’s shorts with stops are taken out the large institutions and floor traders have had the opportunity to get positioned short now and it gives the appearence that the market is headed alot higher since the overnight high was alot higher. During the day, normal trading activity goes on with the large institutions scalping 3 to 5 ticks out of the market almost continuously most individual traders call this “noise” whats really going on is that instituions are scalping these 3 to 5 ticks out of the market at lightning speed with their ultra fast sophicated computer programs milking the market for everything it is worth trading moving only slightly higher or lower to start the process over again. timing method they control every aspect of the markets
with one objective. To get your money away from you.
Martin,
Thank you for all your good work & helpful advice for the small investors. Wall Street is infested with sharks determined to separate regular folks from their money. I have lost totally any faith in the integrity of the market place, their products & the powers that be-this market is rigged. I think that when the economic collapse is over that it will be a lost generation of people who will never invest in the market again. I’m very concerned about the steps government have taken & afraid that they have made matters worse & only extended the time it will take to get out of this mess.
yes I would like a timing tool to now when to get in and out of the market during the up trend or bear market rallies.
Also being in Canada, is it possible to get some more insight on how we can invest with Canadian dollars or in our TSX
Yes I would like a timing tool to know when to get in and out of the market during the up trend or bear market rallies.
Also being in Canada, is it possible to get insight on how we can invest with Canadian dollars or in our TSX. I’m worried that all of the purchases I have done through your million dollar portfolio have been in USD for me to purchase. I have losses on these just from having to exchange between the two curriencies and I’m worried that the USD will go lower making it hard to have any gains even if the inverse ETF’s work when the US market goes down substantial. Is there any inverse ETF’s we can purchase up here that would mimic what you are reccomending us to buy when you send your 48 hour alerts. So far I Have not bought the last inverse ETF on the NASDAQ becuase of the USD issue. I’m sure there are quit a few other people that are following your million dollar portfolio that have not purchased yet and are wondering the same as I.
Thank you,
Thank you
Hi Martin: I’m sitting here with my Bible open to the last book in the Bible, Revelation, chapter 18, verses 9 to 20. And, I’m wondering, is this the meltdown of Biblical proportions that folk talk about. And, if so, is Wall Street Babylon? Wall street, the place where they steal our money through unheard of bonuses paid with our tax dollars for failure (I could see it if they had succeeded), through transfer payments from AIG to Goldman Sachs that paid them 100 cents on the dollar from our tax money. And, if so, why shouldn’t it be the final meltdown what with the waves and waves of failures that are coming at us. I am feeling rather dismayed about the prospects for coming out of this mess sound. It does not look good. Could it be that the person who said “Jesus is coming” is right?
Thank you so much Dr Weiss. I guess I am paranoid at heart, however the CFR and the Trilateral Commission are conspiratory facts. I think the big boys have insider information. But anointed people like you have another advantage – Our Lord.
I’m not convinced that the Gov. Cent Banks, Big buisnesss have got it right in todays market anyway. They are still slipping.
Secret weapon, Timing tool. Heck ya, I believe we would all say yes. Then reap the benifits to richer tomorrow. However MW being my secret weapon at the moment. I have aligned my portfolio with you and what few holding outside of your contrarian recommendations are being sold off in the rally where I can.
Jim K
The government does not want us to know anything but what “they” want us to know.
Obama is making sure that the US will fall into the hands of the Islams. That is what
HE is. I don’t understand why “anybody” voted for him. He just ran off at the mouth
every time he opened his mouth. He was looking and still is looking out for the
people who are immigrants, blacks, hispanics and anybody but people who were born
in this country and have made this country what it is.
He is trying to get “GOD” out of everything. God is in charge of everything. He will
will have his vengance one day. He is a loving God but one day he will take care of
things in ‘HIS’ way. Obama or any anybody won’t be able to fight against. He can
take his name off of things but he can’t take GOD DOWN. Those of us who love
God will have him in our hearts.
Dr. Weiss: Since the March low, the market has given and taken, but mostly given to those who bought in when many market mavins stated that the market is selling at a generational low. Knowing the markets throughout the world are in terrible condition still, and the U.S. is throwing money out of Ben’s proverbial helicopter to stave-off the situation, what is driving the markets? Who is doing all the buying? Everytime I look at Level-two trading, all the indexes are trading in lock-step, as if driven by the buying and selling that can only be computer driven. Are the power-houses making the market, and basing their market moves soley on computer driven logarithms that are so complicated that only those in control of them know in advance when to buy and when to sell? To me it’s so bad trying to figure out when to buy and when to sell, I’ve resorted to doing the opposite of what I believe should be the most logical move of the market. It’s the only way I’ve made money lately.
So how long will it take for the Obama Admininstration and friends to decide that it is necessary to nationalize all the value in all the IRAs of the USA, you know, “For the good of the country”? It’s just sitting there all juicy (what’s left of it anyway) and ripe for the picking. All Congress has to do is pass a law and change everything. Do you think that these crooks haven’t thought of this already? If I can think it, they can too.
All the profits from all the right moves on your part, wiped out with a vote! What will the people do then?
Q1: I think that gov’ts and large corps can manipulate the market in specific areas for short periods of time to profit from it.
Q2: I would venture to say they have analyst working around the clock to provide them certain info, whereas the little guy doesn’t have that. Additionally, we have a slue of so called investment/financial advisors that can be hired (for a price), but don’t really care if they make their clients money or not. They are interested in theirs/their company’s profits. Additionally, I think this slue of advisor’s performance is mediocre at best, and they’ll put the blame somewhere else or on someone else.
Q3: I would use it, if it was affordable.
Don K.
Information about the true macro ecomonic performance is always key and the rich have the resources to get the information and are able to time the market in order to benifit. The rich are also play both sides of the marke at the same time to benifit from favorable trends each way. As a small investor I find your web site and information helpful in looking at both sides of the problem.
Martin/Larry/Mike/Saen/Tony, Think it should be unlawful for you all to be able to read the markets like you do. I’m not going to worry about timing the market any more. I’m a subscriber to “Safe Money” and “Real Wealth” and your daily blurbs and I’m going to let you all do my work for me. Thanks a boatload
Looks like the market is ( Dow) undecided. Volume has been almost flat, declining slightly. Look for spike in volume and the next day a large decline in volume. Then I think you will see the market drop like a rock.
I think the large corporations, the governments, and the central banks know when to buy or sell is because they are the ones controlling the whole thing. They manipulate things so that they CAN profit from everything they do. It’s that simple. And if you’re not on the inside, you don’t have the information you need to make the right moves. I think they have been engaging in what is called “insider trading” from the get-go and then have made it illegal through legislation for the rest of us to do so. Not only that, they already have all the money anyway, and any information they don’t have to make the right decisions, they just pay to receive it from those who DO have it.
Martin,
Like the Rothschilds, if I owned the world’s central banks, I would also take my profits before I pulled the plug on that particular scam in progress. But when Warren Buffet (an acolyte of Rothschild) was asked how he made money in the market, said, “I always sold too early!” That’s great advice for all of us.
Al Doyle
Donald Trump stated ” most profits in the stock market come from inside trading”.
I beleive the other lucrative market is from telling others you have insights and broker the information. Example, to sell subscriptions to the contrarian fund you touted your fathers maga profits in the Great Depression and a European superstar in Claus, who guided the wealthy of Europe to great riches. I beleive there is truth is both statements. The fundamentals you speak of are all there. The market rallies. The Contrairaian position is not so profitable but intellectually appealing in troubled times.
The trick to continue to selling information is to continue to change it, more charts, more new insights…kinda of like diets…always a new one and people continue to gain weight. If there is someone making money out there he is on the inside or in his heart he knows he guessed right this time. I think it is fair to say we come to you because we do not know and you come to us to profit from everyone who is on the outside looking in.
My fortune smile upon us all…in the only way that matters…when we put all of our trust in the only one deserves it…God.
On the thing we value most, money, the founding fathers left this same message ” in God we Trust”
Does no one read history? The secret weapons of the central banks are the governments themselves. They now own the whole political and economic SYSTEM.
Following the coup d’etat in 1912/1913, we’ve been on a steady march towards the Rothschild endgame. The profits have been taken throughout, and those of us who ride the backs of these manufactured crises (read “rounds of consolidation”) with any skill should do well to remember that we are only securing a more comfortable ride to our own demise. The system has us entirely. Witness the utter enslavement, from belief to behavior.
So Martin, if you want to be a warrior and hero of the people, please don’t toe this ugly line. Expose the lie.
The one bank that needs to be nationalized is the Fed. You know why. The question is how.
Until we have the guts to take that on, we’re all just cowering parasites selfishly bleeding a dying host. All money is blood money, and we are all complicit in the violence until we find a way to end the rule of the central banks, scourge of our age.
The thoughts given in Uncommon Wisdom seem to be diametrically opposed to yours. What gives?
Mike
Our greatest concerns are that congress and the senate will short chanbge seniors on medicare
We are not sure what the Obama Ira will do to effect our income. I can’t live on 3% from my ira
The insecurity of our bank (Bank of America) with no funds to secure our funds leaves us with an uncertain that the banks will not fail
What do you do to get the federal government giving you assurance
JAPAN; case in point. Governments are strupid enough to make the same mistakes over and over. They never learn from the mistakes of others, nor from their own mistakes. Just study the history books on Japan economics after their 1990 crash, and you will see what is going to happen with us.
I have Ultra Short Financials and Ultra Short Banks, and short Dow, and I’m holding on to ‘em. Oh! lots of Gold and Silver in stocks and under the floorboards. When I go to Buffalo, I will get the Depression Guide too. Take Care God Bless. Brian
Martin,
As a financial advisor, I really do need to have the information at my finger tips, so I can provide more accurate advise to my clients without ’scaring’ them. by the way, I am not one of those ‘dumb’ advisors who believe in buy and hold and the we’re in it for the long run.
Thank you for your thoughts.
Jo Rae
Hi martin
Good Morning!
I have been failing in my investment for quite some time now.I am sure people who have made money do have the foresight of the future or they have some magic tool that gives them advance signal where to put their money.I love your write ups.I dont know when my struggle will end it seems things always go wrong for me.
thanks
Ravi sharma
My question will show my naivete in finances. When it comes to shorting a stock, I don’t understand how logically one can make money when the shares are losing money. Help. Also, if one has to borrow the shares of a given stock, how does one do that?
I have had several people attempt to explain this to me, but I can’t wrap my head around this approach.
Maybe you’ll be able to clarify it for me.
Bob Sawall
If the consumer was about 70% of the driver behind the economy what is going to replace it? How can bonds go anywhere but down when the supply outstrips demand by so much? What about gold here?
Martin — I own a securities brokerage firm and manage money for my clients in the market each day — and I appreciate your dedication and commentary. I have paved the way for a service to those who invest that is unlike the model that I saw when I worked on Wall Street — and hence my own firm Take Charge Financial! I first started the first female investment banking firm in the country that underwrote billions of dollars of muni bonds — for clients like the City of Chicago and State of California — and am the author of the book “A Girl Needs Cash”, Random House.
I am most — hugely — concerned and in need of navigating clients carefully through these markets. While I have been able to retain principal, I have followed your recommendations and am disappointing my clients by not producing better gains. I do think that there is a way to assist all the people that you and I touch with agility in these markets. And look forward to hearing more about sophisticated investor market timing. I do agree with you that the market (and the economy) are in terrible shape — however so far this view has not enabled market action and profits — and refinement in strategy would be helpful. Thanks for your indepth reporting of the economic circumstances — and I speak and write if I can be a resource to you.
Thanks, Joan Perry
Take Charge Financial!
(408) 399-6600
To answer a question posted by Bob Sawall
A short sale works like this. I borrow an item now and have to replace it in 90 days. So I sell the item now at a high price. If the item drops in price over the next 90 days then I can buy the item (which I previously sold) and replace it to who I borrowed it from at the lower price. The difference between the high price which I sold it for 90 days earlier and the low price which I purchased it at today to replace it…that is my profit.
However if the item (which I had borrowed and sold) increases in price over the next 90 days then I must buy the item(which I previously sold) and replace it to who I borrowed it from at the higher price. The difference between 90 days ago sold price and the higher price which I had purchased it at today is my loss.
Yes I can use your information for TIMING Dr. Weiss. I am aware of the mechanics of the short sell and the long hold. When is what I need to know.
I THINK YOUR OBSERVATIONS ARE RIGHT ON
THANKS
Making money is easy, the formula is timeless: “Buy low and sell high”…don’t laugh. That is a contrarian investor by definition but it takes a LOT of guts and a LOT of honest analysis. Someone said “I always sell too soon”, Rotschild told us “don’t buy until you see blood in the street”, all contrarian and brilliant advice. It is also true that things like a can of beans, a bag of fertilizer, a roof over your head, a gun or a box of ammo will have the same exact value TO THE OWNERS regardless of inflation or deflation. In the Socialist workers paradise this administration wants to make us into, it was toilet paper, shoes, car batteries, window glass, computer printer paper, telephone books, “blue tiles” (a code for hard currency in barter ads), among thousands of things. The saying was that West Berlin was actually just like East Berlin: you couldn’t get anything for east marks but you could get whatever you wanted for dollars or DM’s. We may yet see these strong dollars become east marks, think about it.
In the 1970’s I was president of United States Precious Metals Corporation and having met Dr. Ron Paul in DC in 1983 and having studied and utilized computer software that worked off of W.D. Gann’s “squaring of price and time”, I came to the conclusion that ratios between gold and silver and gold and oil was as important to understanding the greater simplicity of who is causing what to happen in the market place along with determining the cyles, trends and turning points. I like the way you take the complex and make it simpler for your readers. Keep up the good work for many of us either don’t have the time and/or the training to do what you do. Your Texas reader appreciates your diligence.
of course!
Dean
No, I do not think that “they” have access to secret information. It seems to me that there is plenty of information lying right out on the table, but there is so much of it that it is difficult to winnow out what is most important right now.
Insider information
How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell? A. You can tell the future without error when you create the future. They create the ups and downs with their actions. Since they know what actions they will take they also know the exact time that they will put those actions into effect. In effect they have unerring knowledge of the markets future exactly as a God would have.
Many years ago, I caught notice of something significant. On a particular day. the DOW had been reflecting it’s average for the day until a few minutes of closing. During those few minutes the DOW dropped 5%. That precipitous drop taught me that there are forces far greater than the average investor, who seemed to be creating the norm for that day until, within those few minutes of closing (5 or less), the DOW had become inverted.
i must learn the ways of the rich,
Martin
You wrote: “How do YOU think governments, central banks, huge corporations and super-rich investors know when to buy and when to sell?”.
It is my opinion (derived from my Weiss readings and others), that governments, central banks, and huge corporations, are the powers that have driven us to this financial crisis point. I wonder why you would point to some secret that they hoard, that might be something one might want to pursue success in these difficult times? From a working bloke reading your work, I am concerned that the need for revenue has me confused. I do not question that you may have a good premise to leverage future prosperity, but the connection is confusing.
If governments, central banks, and institutions were smart we would not be where we are today. These institutions tend to ignore logic, and propagate the…money/leverage/borrowing to the hilt is the line to the future.
Can you help me understand why the sales pitch supports the institutions that we have read for a fortnight have now become useful?
Al from Alberta
Martin,
I have been following everything you send to my email and I have learned a lot. I am not investing, but holding onto what I have in my IRA in short-term cash-I have also read “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. What I have in savings I am holding close as I will need it soon for major surgery.
I have just read something over the internet about exchanging paper dollars for “gold dollars” as a hedge against inflation that’s coming. Is this a good idea? How can I do this?
Truly good post to pay attention to at least for me. By the way, why haven’t you you send that article to social bookmarking sites? That might bring much traffic to this page.
hello,
can you please up date whats next now??
its june 2011, so what next now??
if you have a web site you should at least up date it, come on now, i should have to tell you this!!
That’s kind of… abrupt.