On April 24, I demonstrated how the recent bank stress tests are based on blatantly mild premises about the economy. (See my article at http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/martin-weiss/bank-stress-tests-based-on-blatantly-mild-premises/.)
Now, just one week later, we have multiple confirmations that banks are indeed suffering more severe stress.
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Chrysler bankruptcy; GM deathwatch: Chapter 11 at Chrysler will not only deliver more losses to many banks, but it also hastens the failure of General Motors and related companies, creating a whole new crop of toxic, hard-to-sell assets at the nation’s largest banks.
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Unemployment is still rising: Even before the impact of mass layoffs at Chrysler and GM, this week’s numbers show no end to the rise in joblessness. The Fed’s “worse case” scenario in its stress test — of 8.9 percent unemployment for 2009 — could be reached far sooner than previously expected.
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Historic decline in the U.S. economy is still unfolding: This week’s announcement that the U.S. economy contracted at the annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter digs a deeper hole in the government’s “worse case” GDP assumption of 3.3 percent; it will take a miracle to achieve a GDP decline of less than 4 percent.
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The real estate decline is continuing: On Monday, the S&P Case Schiller index showed that home prices are still falling, down 18.8 percent in a year. Beginning this month, payments on teaser-rate ARMs will be start adjusting higher in large quantities, boosting defaults and foreclosures. Meanwhile, the decline in commercial real estate continues to accelerate as key default rates surge. As a result, regional banks, overloaded with commercial real estate loans, are suffering far greater stress than most expected.
{ 83 comments… read them below or add one }
Right on the money.
The only thing I would add is that the commercial default rate is being accelerated by the banks.
BoA has pulled performing notes from multiple companies I know/do business with.
The payments are sitting in the BoA bank accounts, but they are not crediting them to the loans, thus their “default” rate data is being skewed and should be looked at with the knowledge of reality.
Impossible in America anymore, I know.
It seems to me that attempts to save Chrysler and GM focus on “financial acrobatics”. This will not make me want to buy their cars. If the public does not buy more cars, the best financial acrobatics will not help. The solution is in better engineering, not in better financial acrobatics. Why doesn’t anyone talk about that?
Martin,
I live in Pennsylvania but I also live within a few miles of the state of Delaware. I noticed about 2 weeks ago a building that once had an AIG sign now has a 21st Century Insurance sign. Is AIG selling off?
Well, I’m at the most bottom part of the barrel..lost my home to foreclosure. I am a single mother with a salary of $52K and bruised credit. Hardly any money saved.
What is out there left for me?
Dear Mr. Weiss,
Thank you for what you are doing. I am reading so that I understand what is going on, but we have no assets at all. My husband is in the ministry. We don’t own a house, and have no savings. What kind of advice could you give someone like me? I’ve got some extra food and everything I need for health issues for a while, but other than that, I don’t think there is much I can do. Is there a way to take advantage of any opportunities with small amounts of money? What would you advise? Thank you.
I have no savings apart from $1.6 million in a 403(b) with TIAA. all but $110K is in TIAA traditional annuity, the rest in mutual funds (international stock funds) I have decided that I can afford to dollar average the 7% of my total that this involves by putting my new premiums into the CREF Global Equities account, so that even if it takes a decade or so, I take advantage of the market fluctuations. I am of course hoping that $1.54Million in my TIAA Traditional annuity is safe.
I bought your best-selling book-”The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”, and read it
cover to cover. It is an excellent guide to surviving the depression we are in. I am following your recommendations, both in the book and in your Safe Money” publication,
where I have been a subscriber for years. Congratualtions on getting so many signatures to your petition to Congress to stop the baiouts. I will be looking forward to
hearing your report on Congress’ reaction to the 50,000 plus petitions.
If all this is true, then there must be more deflation on the way, however, can’t the price of gold increase rapidly in times of deflation (as it did in the 1930’s)? HRE II
BTW, continuing my earlier comment, I really am enjoying reading your book. I have so much credit card debt [equal to more than a year's take home pay] that I am struggling to reduce it, but I am hoping that your recommendations will be helpful. Nevertheless, I love Pontiacs and will likely buy one within a year before they are gone.
Sir;
I am a subscriber of your safe money report & have purchased & read your book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”.
Is the recent uptrent in the stock market one of the false bull moves you talk about in your book?
Why do I feel left out of some huge profits? like the recent 271% surge in Ford, 100% move up in GE; 233% in Fifth Third Bank; the list goes on…
Please comment,
Thanks
John
Hi Martin,
Thanks for inviting my comment here. I applaud your energy and enthusiasm to send the message to Washington on most of your very valid points. I was disappointed in the petition itself though, and did not sign it. I agree with many of your points, yet I take issue with a few.
Had you limited the scope of your petition to simply “Stop the bailouts!” you would have had me on board and signed. I don’t think however that the message ought to be broadened to include “Stop the deficit spending!”.
I am concerned that like the Hoover administration, and the early Roosevelt years, the idea that we should contract spending and taxes and live within our means – while laudable from the standpoint of common sense – leaves no one on the market with money to buy much of anything, the inevitable result being the specter of deflation. As a country (before my time admittedly) we have been there and done that, and although not proven beyond any doubt, it does appear that once Roosevelt got busy with WPA and other deficit spending plans, and the war happened – I know, we finally shook off the Great Depression after most of two decades, and emerged into economic bounty once again.
All I am saying is, Bernanke is trying to fight deflation with inflation. Maybe it will work. I think – although I have yet to live through rampant deflation – but I think I want to let him give it a shot, because that deflation stuff is pretty bad medicine as my Mom and Dad – if they were still living (God rest their souls) – would likely agree.
So yes, stop the bailouts, and yes, continue the deficit spending in more productive pursuits. That’s the petition I would have been happy to sign.
Your supporter and avid reader.
Pete
While the U.S. markets and economy continue to struggle the market in China seems to have turned the corner. Are there any Chinese stocks that you feel are worth investing in at this time?
Jon
Martin:
Could you please explain who exactly the federal reserve is and explain how and why they’re not a branch of the government.
I would like to thank you for all you have been doing to help us prepare for what is surely to be “the biggest change” any of us will ever see. I am sorry to say I did not find your site until I had lost half of my retirement fund. As a government employee I now am in the “C Fund and the F Fund” which is a bit safer but doesn’t pay much either. I am about half way through your book and can’t wait to get my husband to read it because he still thinks in the long run the market will be back. We are pushing 60 (one of us made it already) so I don’t think we would live long enough to benefit from any gains. Heck, who knows, even our grandchildren might not benefit. The world as we knew it is now gone. I pray everyone will prepare now for what is sure to get even worse before getting better. Thanks again.
Hey Martin,
I work for an insurance company which has been downgraded to a B plus Jackson National Life. Do you see big changes I have noticed that many of the companies rating have changed.? Also on banks, I use bank of america I have moved alot of my acct s to Georgia’s own credit union Do you think Bac will go under.? When do you think we will see the bottom of this thing?
Thanks,
I know that you are not the only analyst with a bearish view of the economy. But this “let’s pretend everything is OK now” rally must have a lot of professional/institutional investors backing it. Are they all thinking they can get out quickly if needs be? If the big boys and the government agree to pretend, can the financials just keep advancing from this point? Can the financials keep doing well while the economy tanks? Sounds like monkey business to me! Probably not hard to guess I’m getting creamed with my position in SEF :-). I guess that people buying financial stocks are really the contrarians, and I am the one sticking with the more widespread bearish view. (What’s the opposite of a contrarian, anyway?)
Mr. Weiss,
Thank you for “The Safe Money Banking Survival Guide.” I have switched my money from a “C” rated bank to an “A” rated bank. I thank God for your wise financial counsel. I do have a question, “What do those who do not have $1,000 to invest in a Treasury only money market fund checking account do to secure the small funds they do have?”
Dr. Weiss,
If the U.S. government manages to pull its markets up by thier respective bootstraps merely by instilling confidence in the public – and stock & realestate values are restored – could this possibly untoxify the toxic assets held by financial institutions? Would just bringing the markets back solve everything? After all, aren’t the bad assets only bad because they are pegged to fallen market values?
-Erik W
Dear Mr.Weiss,
Thank you for your important information and updates on the economy. I value them and compare them with each day’s news. Thanks for standing up against this insane government spending and borrowing; you are a lone voice crying out in this wilderness.
Dave
I agree with everything you are saying but it’s pretty hard to stay a bear when everything around you ralleys 25%+ in two months.
Dear Mr. Weiss,
I have purchased and read your book, “The Ultimate Depression” with great interest. I have been following your outlook on the economy and the stock market for the past year. Also, I have subcribed to Nilius and Roger Edelson’s recommendations for the stock market. I believe that your outlook and strategy on the economy and stock market will prevail in the future.
Sincerely,
Stan Kubik
Being retired, almost age 70, living off SS and interest from Treasuries (now NO interest!) I’m keeping my retirement monies in 3-month Treasury bills and waiting for the “spike in interest rates” to happen. Other than watching the 10-year Treasury rate, what else can I watch to find clues as to how soon this spike will happen? And, when to buy notes/bonds (near the peak yield, of course), etc.
Sincere thanks for all your efforts help and keep us informed!
Joseph R Lewis
p.s. I have your book; I have read it, and am in the process of going back over it again, but perhaps you can provide a few more “clues” to follow; i.e. maybe your crystal ball is more clear than mine!
Right about now, the investing public seems to be caught in a tug o’ war between the Stock Market, and Government – subsidized deception. The advocates of big government are going for it, and why not, the tax payers are paying for it.
Thank you for your clarion call!
What would you say to someone who just never really liked to read about stocks and now just finds it difficult to break the inerita of not doing anything? Just watching the boat fill with water….
How does one get decent interest income while still preserving capital? Many like my mother-in-law need interest income to make ends meet.
What is your suggestion for federal retirees that have large amounts of their retirement money tied up in their tsp accounts? Basically a government savings account that can be put in different categorys, ie: govt bonds, international stocks, U.S. stocks, etc.
I have 80% of my investable funds in gold and silver coins. I own a 300 acre river bottom farm and a
house. I owe no debts. I am 82 years old and feel I am in the best position to weather this storm.. I am a retired CPA. Do you think I have made the right decision?
I am amazed that some people get excited when companies beat intentionally lowered earning estimates, and then buy on the news. Even a hopeless optimist like me I can see that if you lower your expectations, then you are less likely to become disappointed.
I hope you are wrong in your predictions, Martin, but my gut tells me that you are on the money. I decided to heed your advice and play it safe for a while.
I am up to Chapter 10 of your book. It is an easy read. Well worth the money!
Dr. Weiss, Your book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide,” “Money and Markets,”
and “Dividend Superstars” are useful tools to reshape my portfolio. With a “how to” on weathering the financial crisis the future doesn’t seem so devastating. Thank you and
the capable members of your staff for so much help to those of us who need it.
I still have a large sum of money tied up in IRA accounts. Should I take it all out, pay the 10% penalty next tax year, and pay the income tax hit…… and at least have saved some of the money.
Or should I leave the money in the IRA, and hope for the best
Mark
tracyinfo@gmail.com
Hi Martin:
Your passion is admirable and information excellent. I hope that you will continue battling for sharing the truth despite the odds. I have recently registered as an investment advisor after seeing this coming myself and being in the mortgage business for 20 years. My hope is that I can help people avoid complete ruin from the charade our government is playing on our country. I will do what I can to support your cause from here in Orlando and thanks again for your fortitude. Let me know how I can help-
I CAN’T order the Ultimate Depression Survival Guide because it wouldn’t matter to me. I have all my eggs in one basket…my 401(k). Like millions of others (whom I’m sure you’re wondering why you haven’t sold a book to every single one of us), we are all just sitting here watching someone else play with our money. I’m beginning to think the advent of the 401(k) was just one big ponzi scheme dreamed up in a boardroom so the average Joe invested in stock regardless whether he knew anything about it or not. And those boardroom execs who dreamed it up? Well, they just watched THEIR stocks go up and up during the whole process. I can just hear ‘em, “It’ll be good for Joe, the companies they work for with tax deductions for matching contributions, and all of US! We should buy now then sell when the bubble we create bursts..”
I don’t know how to relate all of your advices to the Australian situation.
Dear Mr. Weiss,
First I want to thank you for what you are trying to do with your web site and your book. It is sad that greed has gotten the best of this country. I have been a member of the Chicago Board of Trade for over 40 years. In that time I have seen a lot, but what is happening know is almost beyond belief.
Let me take you back in TIME, the year 1843, one hundred years before I was born.
The book: A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens. The place: the feet of the second Spirit. The quote: “They are Man’s” said the Spirit, looking down upon them. “And they cling to me, appealing from their fathers. This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased, Deny it!” Cried the Spirit, stretching out its hand towards the city. “Slander those who tell it e! Admit it for your factious purposes, and make it worse. And bide the end!”
What price are we about to pay and for how long?
I have been wondering about Larry Edelson and your views because they are alike but also different. Larry knows that this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally but he feels that inflation will help revive the economy. He also recently wrote that he feels WHEN hyper-inflation occurs the DOW will rise to 44000 points! So that view of inflation helping this economy is much different than yours Martin. If you could address your different view points in a Money and Markets column I think it would be a fantastic read. It would allow people to fully understand how to use both of your ideas in their portfolios and see how Larry’s ideas can cooperate with yours. Maybe if you and Larry wrote a timeline of events (obviously it can’t be accurate in terms of dates) that you believe will occur like what signs will come before the DOW falls back down and when Larry believes the DOW will rise up to 44,000. Just an idea but to tell you the truth I would actually pay some money to see a report like that. Thanks Martin,
Mark
Hi Martin,
I’m implementing the “move to safety” items as suggested in your book. (A great guide for these strange times btw.) In Canada I can’t access T-bills directly but I have to buy them through banks. As for Canadian banks, are there any credible ratings available, similar to the lists you’ve provided for US banks? We are told that Canadian banks are secure, but last month they were allowed the same accounting latitude that US banks are using for “toxic” debts.
The Ultimate Depression Guide seems to be the best advice available. Though I am a small guy I’ve managed to buy some Spder Gold ETF to go with the Eagles I’ve had for years. Lot of cash in Treasury bills as you have advised. My biggest worry is my Northrop Grumman pension. And whether the clowns will actually grab my IRA and roll it into the big sinkhole! Your advice is clearly objective and what we need.
Dear Mr. Weiss,
I am so happy to have joined up with your “Safe Money Report” and received your daily emails…as well as have your book on surviving this current economic crisis. I am educating myself with your helpful resources. I do have one question, why do you recommend the gold ETF, GLD and not IAU, Comex? I have Comex now. Would it be better to change to StreetTracks? Can’t tell you how thankful I am for your wonderful
publications that are so helpful in these times.
Sincerely, Muriel Bramble
Hello Martin, I am still reading your book The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. Although Australia is affected I believe the situation here is not as bad as with you in the USA. A lot of what you have written about does not quite apply or does not apply to my situation and as far as housing is concerned. Your write up on short selling is most interesting but I have not quite grasp and am still re- reading about ETF’s. I believe short selling has been banned here. When I saw my broker he adviced that bying ETF’s could also result in a loss while the option would have to be exercised within a period of time or one could loose the lot.
I do not wish to borrow since I would have to pay back the burrowings which could be difficult with my limited funds.
However on advice from an International Melbourne based Small Caps adviser I selected to invested in some Australian energy stocks. This after following his predictions for several month which were all very sucessful. I based my investments on developing energy companies on the basis of demands from China for our resources plus some relativly inovative and new energy developers and recently saw one lot of stock appreciate by some 47%. While I have little doubt the other stocks will also come to appreciate with demand from China.
I will give your ÉTF’s advice further study for better understanding and to see how I can best use it in my situation. Any additional information or clarification on ETF’s would be much appreciated. With kind regards Egon Demuth
I see that in today’s post in Money and Markets, you don’t believe inflation is a problem on the horizon. I think you said that despite the efforts of the fed, there won’t be “reinflation.” (Looked again, but can’t find the exact quote.) Yet most pundits claim that the hog-wild money printing will cause inflation either sooner or later. Can you explain your stance on inflation and inflation protection/hedging in investing. I keep thinking about gold, but you’re not that hot on gold or other commodities. Any clarification, recommendation could help.
Did you notice that both financial ETF’s RFL and FAZ both went down together from several hundred points to single digit points. FAZ though is an inverse ETF. how can this happen? Are they related to banks?
You are quite correct in your assumptions. As a former small business machine and fabrication shop in Detroit I know first hand what automotive downturns are like. What is going to happen now with massive layoffs and unpaid vacations is that a whole economy that feeds the large auto plants will suffer even greater losses and bankruptcies. The small catering trucks, the sandwich shops and breakfast places will also suffer greatly during this time and many will not survive. Prototype manufacturers, tool and die shops, maintenance specialty shops, heat treating and sand blasting companies and the host of other small business that serve the auto industry will collapse. We have not seen the worst of what is to come by a long shot.
Your company has mentioned about gold purchases etc but the little guy out here cannot afford an ounce or two of gold nor does he know what to buy if he could. The premium of coinage makes such a purchase not very economical. What suggestions to you have for retirees, hourly workers ,service trades etc to protect what very little they have. You can write and brag about signing a one million dollar check for Claus’s managed fund but most people I know would have difficulty signing a $1,000 check and being able to cash it. Are pre-1965 coins the answer? Are there other things that could be bought economically? Thanks.
Martin,
You tell us to get out of stocks. Does this include the stocks that are in Larry Edelson’s Real Wealth Report, or are these the type of stocks we should currently stay invested in?
One thing that I like about Larry’s recommended positions, is that he has us put a stop loss on most of the positions he recommends. Too bad I was not a subscriber of his last September.
Wayne Johnson
I’m truly enjoying your book, and I will be putting it to good use. I am not sophisticated in the trading processes, and I would like your advise on being involved with a safe economical trading firm.
My past experience was getting $25,000 in a gold certificate with (3%) $750.00, through a Canadian Bank in 1966, when the British Pound devalued. I was involved in gold market for about 13 years.
I will be getting my feet wet, as a small trader.
Many thanks for a well written book, it confirms much of my thoughts on finance.
My web site I’ve listed shows clearly where I’m coming from.
You provide the best wisdom, thank you. I am hunkered (Scandinavian,1720)
down, and “active”. God speed.
Cheers
Dear Martin:
Thanks for the blog and opportunity to write. It is a great idea and hopefully benefits
your subscribers and your organization.
I wrote an e-mail to my advisor in 2005 and suggested it was time to lighten up on the 7000 shares I had (IRC) and to take dividends in cash ($650/mo) at my age 75. In it
since 1998.
He agreed to my taking divs. I accrued $150/mo and used the $500 to live on. In Feb 2007 I again told him it was time to lighten up on the share count (then $16/sh). I suggested to him that we might not be too big to fail in US but I did not want to wait to test that out. And that REIT P/E’s too rich for my blood, though I loved real estate.
He said the company pres had told him that some very good things were in the near
term offing. The news was the company was buying and leasing back 4 buildings from BofA. I wan’t impressed but followed his direction. He wrote me back when I questioned
the Bof A properties and said I was always tinkering around and it wouldn’t help me.
Told me how successful he was.
Recently he said he has lost a million and that I was a genius. Yeh, sure.
Finally I sold some shares at $11-$12 last year and kept 5,000. Shares are at $8 now.
The company says they will pay my 9% div (on cost) through ‘09. I am ready to sell
some more.
I am in the third chapter of your book and just read the monthly newsletter. And I read Barron’s over the weekend and am looking for ideas to provide yield as I sell more of this stock and maybe some oil incomes.
You appear to not favor any investment or insurance product, bank- just Treas bills.
And some inverse stocks. I hold some “DOG”. No yields in these. And I have $80 K in Treas at Fidelity and Amer Century.
Also $300K in bank C.D.s and cash + L.I. policy with $74K (100K face value) with
American General Life (AIG bought my original company out 2005). I am researching
life VA companies to exchange to but that area seems like a mine field now. If I cash it out I pay tax on $23K profit. It was an 8% interest rate policy in 1982.
I have small amount of Gold stocks and fund =$20K; an income growth fund =$50k
and another miscellaneous $30K.
Our house if free and clear. Last market value $550 k.
I note that GNMA’s have held up very well. Also short-intermediate Treas.
What do you think of these?
I know you don’t advise, but wanted to give you some sense of our financial status
and diversification. Just some input on GNMA’s would be appreciated.
I’ve made good $$ on DVN and TLM that you suggested. Only ones that come to mind
just now.
Keep up your common sense reminders.
Mel Glass
P.S. Having been born in 1930 and recalling some of the changes my young parents
went through in San Francisco, I feel like I have come full circle. Sort of a Kondratieff
child. Really relate to your stories. Also I am trying to be of help to grandchildren as
they work to go through college, so extra income and saving assets helps there too.
Martin – A few years ago I subscribed to your Money & Markets newsletter. At that time you also asked for questions. I wrote that I owned over $600,000 in U.S.Government savings bonds and asked your advice on how to handle them. Since I bought them they have doubled in value. However, you never answered me. What are your thoughts on these now? Best Wishes, Robert
Dr.weiss do you expect smaller rated A banks to fail,do we need to get our money out and to treasuries? How often does the street.com rate the banks?What month do they rate so we can watch these bank ratings? also we are having trouble bringing up wells fargo in minnesota banks. how about farm real estate is it best to sell or hold?
Dear Martin,
Thank you very much for your extraordinary effort to help.
I am 80 yrs old, live on meager Soc. Sec. income, so meager that
even buying your book would have put a dent in my monthly budget at this time. Nevertheless, I enjoy your e-letters, with a hope of a better future for the next generation. I hope your trip to Washington will prove successful and bring some much needed results.
Thank you again for caring.
God bless you and members of your team,
Laryssa
Martin – I have done everything you have suggested. What are the chances that you might be wrong. The market keeps going higher and I’m losing money on my inverse funds. What do I do?
Dear Martin,
I have to assume that we are all simply trying to improve our financial situation given whatever circumstances exist in the various markets. I also imagine that I am not the only one supicious about the motiovation behind a communiation your company sent out in your name claiming that “All Hell” was to break loose Monday, March 9th. Well, it scared the hell out of me, and I stepped out of the market at precisely the time I should have remained in. So, again I ask, what’s the point?
Is it possible that the gov’t. can actually turn the economy around by methodically pushing its present agenda? I realize that if it can, we will be in enormous debt, but let’s say the economy picks up, slowly at first, then accelerates to where revenues permit the banks et al to recover and prosper, and begin paying back the taxpayer-sponsored loans?
I don’t dispute your statistics, Martin, but aren’t we (the Federal Reserve, Treasury) better equipped to steer the economy than we were in the past? By the way, I DID take your advice: I lost 10% of my stock portfolio in 2008, then sold everything except
a very small position in precious metels. Thanks for your outstanding counsel!!!
Martin-
First off, thanks for being a voice in the wilderness! I appreciate your insight and call to action. My question to you is this: Have you EVER seen the US Gov’t work so diligently work to protect the people from the truth about the state of the banking system? I’m outright appalled at the lengths our gov’t is going through to paper over the truth. Delaying the Stress Test results then leaking bits of info to see how markets react. I feel like our once respectable markets have lost ALL integrity with the recent changing of accounting standards (mark-to market to make believe). It’s like our markets are no different than some third-world markets! What a total sham those guys in Washington and Wall St. are! I’m disgusted, now I hear that the banks that are in need of funds are negotiating to play down the test results! Why even have a test? This market has gone up 36% in less than 2 months on AWFUL News! I smell a RAT here!
I read all your articles and papers. I’m also reading your book, and I’ve been following your advice. It’s becoming harder to stay disciplined when the market keeps going up and more and more of the so called experts seem to be saying the market has bottomed, the worst is behind us and we’re in the beginning of a new bull market. If the banks are allowed to continue to sweep their bad debt under the carpet and the government continues to go along with this cover-up we may never know the real truth of the markets. This is just one of many scams that seem to be being pulled on the general public. If they continue this cover-up, is it possible we might not see the depression you’re calling for, for a few years? If not, when do you see all this coming to a head? Thanks for all your help.
Thankyou for bringing all this info to light.As I,m in Australia I have been adjusting my thinking given our locl position.We at least have a safe “gold deposit” at the Perth Mint ,I have used it already.Oil&Gas deposites in near Aust waters is covered by our local stock “woodside petroleum” it,s worth a look.
Cheers
Martin,
With all this working to destroy the ecomomy is now the time to buy short ETF’s such as ; SRS, SKF?
Dr. Weiss; I really want to take the opportunity to thank you for caring enough about all the people who believe in investments, the theory of what we should be doing and can do as responsible, intelligent people. You are generous enough to share your wisdom with us; so much of it free of charge. I bought your book, have so far sold off half my investments in the market and am moving cash to a treasury only MM fund – the Weiss fund ( if it is still open to new investors ) and have bought approx. 5% in a gold ETF. I would not have known nor believed anyone else, had I not come onto your web-site three months ago and since that time I have studied your strategies, savored your words of advice, bought your book and am beginning to feel, if not good, then certainly safer where my money is concerned. I am a single woman who lost all trust and alot of money at the expense of financial advisors. For who you are, God bless your efforts and may we all survive to a better day.
I ordered your book from Amazon on 4/18/2009. They said it would not be mailed until 5/15/2009. Today is 5/4/2009, I got the book at noon, did some errands, and come home and started reading. I already have 3 chapters read and will continue to read. I have been a M&M subscriber for over a year. I picked up more info in your book. It is well written and down to earth for the masses “blinded” by the media. It is they who will wake up fast and will be helped by this book. I hope more will read this book and understand what is actually happening now.
Now is the best time for you to send your petition to “Spendthrift USA”-I.E. Washington D.C. to let them know that we Americans are not going to sit back and allow these clowns to bail us into “Banana Republic” style existence. I am proud to be part of the 50K signers of this petition. I will be honest, we are about 300 million shy. Best Regards-Tim
According to this article in SeekingAlpha.com both Treasury and LIBOR-based 3-1 ARMS initiated in 2005-2006 will likely reset lower and therefore not cause any near-term problem. Any comments?
Hi Martin,
Thank you for the opportunity ask you a question or two. Understandably, pretty much all of your analysis deals with the American situation. Do you have any different advice to give to us Canadians or is it pretty much the same as what you are giving Americans. I have read your “Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” and I can see where I can use some of your recommendations up here in Canada. However, since I am rather inexperienced with actually trying to make and protect money, I am not sure if some of the financial vehicles you recommend are available in Canada. Would you be able to share some light regarding options unique to Canadians?
Cheers,
Peter
Martin I have read your book but I still question where to put my brokerage money so that I might profit from the downturn without risking loss of control of my funds in a potential brokerage failure. Last year you identified those most at risk of failure at that time but have not recently elucidated those most likely to withstand the coming onslaught.
Hi everybody,
I am 65 years old & thought I had happily retired early 10 years ago,& now here I am trying to protect all I have worked for,I did try to access how safe my bank in england is but only found American banks on your website,because I live in Ireland for 5 months of the year it makes sense for me to use the Allied Irish Bank,with branches in England & Eire,their is a lot of uncertanty in Irish banks,how safe is this one ?.Thank you & your staff for all the imformation you have supplied so far,I wish more related to the U.K.
Regards Des Fagan
As a physicist, I have been waiting a ling time for GM’s demise,
following the infamous sale of MagnaQuech to China.
There’s certainly no need to mention here the trade deficit that resulted.
I’ve also been watching Ford’s current generation CEO, and find him to be bright, enlightened, and visionary in his approaches, going forward.
Ford continues to be a firm with sound management approaches, and I am supportive of investment strategies that enhance this track record.
Your book is excellent, and points to the only approach POSSIBLE to ensure sustainability and new development at this pivotal juncture:
one that runs counter to policy.
There is no question that prolonging the agony via ‘bandaids’ cranks up the order of magnitude of the process, turning disaster into something potentially catastrophic.
I never discuss specifics with anyone; but I do offer positive feedback when it is due.
And, you shall have it, today.
Your ‘whole person’ penned those pages, not just your professional self.
I believe your father would be proud of you.
“To whom much is given, from him much is required.”
And so it, for all of us.
Responsible conducts and transactions are called for in every sector; anyone putting forth anything less will fall into the abyss.
The United States is beyond redemption; its children, allowed to travel through school without “sit-down skills”. And yet, there are whole industries with a vested interest in affliction. Both real, and imagined.
The inevitable question becomes “Is there a relationship between sound fiscal management and social policy?”
If so, what IS it ?
And, at what socioeconomic level, do people cease to care?
It wouldn’t be inaccurate to say that the goal of the venture capitalist is to reach,
and surpass that level.
In the end, each of us much provide for our families.
However, we can choose HOW to do so.
Indeed; during these times we must.
It is the end of law and order of any kind; it is about survival now.
Building arks, and staying afloat.
God Bless you too, Martin.
What is going to happen to the $? With perhaps $500trillion of $ denominated notes and instruments as the only reserve currency, $5trillion of spend/easing will hardly make a dent. The Euro may break and the Yen stands on a flaky manufacturing base. What is your view?
Martin,
I did buy your book from Amazon. You are right on your analysis. The USA is going down the tubes, faster than most people realize.
I’m four years older than you. (1942) I never made the money you did. I have lived on Social Security since 1993 because of a disability. I don’t have the resources to invest. Nevertheless, just like your dad taught you, my dad taught me, “If you don’t have the money, don’t buy it!”
During my working years my house and older car is paid off. I don’t have any personal debt. I wish I had the resources to invest in Weiss Capital Management.
You are a wise counseler to anyone paying attention. Thank you for the free letter I read diligently every day.
I’m pretty sure I signed the petition you’re taking to Washington. If I missed the signing please forgive me.
Your friend,
Perry Watkins
4589 Territorial Loop
Sierra Vista, AZ 85635
What is your view on UK banks. Should holder of shares sell?
Martin: you asked how you could help me. I believe the housing market has turned and Chrysler is laying off thousands in order to save millions of jobs. Are you still sure all of the segments of the economy are going to tank as you continue to suggest.?? I have been following your advice and seem to be missing one of the best runs in the market to help recover my losses last year when I did not heed your advice early enough. John
dr, how much further do you see the market going up, and particularly the financial sector?
Are Credit Unions going to face the same financial crisis as our banking system?
Martin,
I have approx $1,000,000 in CD’s earning barely 3 %. No money in the market, no mortgage on my house and no debts. I had hoped to retire within the next 2 years,
however, current returns are making that less likely. I have never had the stomach for investing in the market and have obviously lost opportunities, but on the other hand I have missed out on disasters. I have zero comfort level at this point and seem relegated to what used to be “passbook interest”. Any thoughts?
Hi Martin,
Where does one find your responses to the questions that I have read on AOL under
“New, More Severe Stress on Banks”
I am in the same boat as John Wander. I’ve had losses in the last year and hoping this rally will help recover some of those losses. I know I am not going to get it all back. But, what is the possibility of getting back to 10,000 on the Dow?
Thanks,
Jeff
Like Ron Nunn I am interested in SRS.I have been holding this along with PSQ and SCC for some time now(bought just below the highs about 6 months ago).Prices are pretty dismal at the moment – too low to sell, but worthwhile doing short trades.’Logically’ it seems to me that it should not be too long before we see these shares rising but would appreciate your your general thoughts here.
Have been an admirer for over 3 years and have been happy to spead the good word around.
Regards
Hello Martin,
I’ve just purchased your book, and plan to read it over the weekend.
I have a question regarding the banks. I purchased SKF low obviously to take advantage of their sorry position but even with all this bad news SKF is headed lower. How does this happen when they are in such terrible shape. Should I hold until the commercial news hits the street?
Carol
thanks for your advice, in your book i have read this book and will read it again to make sure i never missed any points . i just retired and sold my bussiness boy what atime to do this but i did do one think right i took it over 5 years pay out i want to invest but not sure which way to go i lost over 60000 $$ in 2008 in the stock market hoping to gaine some back but just not sure of the market will you tell us when you think the market is ready to make us money and how do we get your anwsers on these questions
I don’t have much but, I just called my financial adviser to sell all my stocks and put in cash. Now what do I do with the $? I’m really dumb, dumb about all this financial stuff but it has gotten to where I don’t even trust my FA. I believe he put my $ in Money Markets. How do I go about buying gold??
Like I said, I’m really Dumb. I’m trying to read your book but not understanding much of it. I will continue to read hoping I will have an “aha” moment!
Thanks ever so much for any help you can give me.
Hi Martin,
Thanks for all your hard work in D.C. and elsewhere, bringing to light all the BS which our so called decision makers have ignored.
I believe we are ultimately headed for a total re-structuring of the financial/banking system worldwide. A lot more debt will be liquidated, perhaps all of it. Then, a new monetary system will emerge which will be somehow based on gold and silver. Larry Edelson has suggested something like this in his advisories. But a lot more crap will be hitting the fan before the politicians will be ready for that. So in the meantime, keep up the good fight. You and Claus are the voices we can rely on for solid advice during this ongoing turmoil.
Aloha,
Rick Chalker
Do you feel it’s time to consider inverse ETF’s like skf, srs, efu, sds
Hello Martin I hve been buying bear-market etf’s faz and skf waiting for the next inevitable shoe in the bancrupt banking industry to fall. I am quite a bit down right now because I never expected the bank stocks to rally so much. Am I worried no I am just waiting. Mike
I took out everything I had in the stock market two years ago and put it in CD’s at bofa Do I need to get it out? Will they possibly fail this year?
Your articles are great!
Dirk Van
The biggest help you can offer is to keep us from getting sucked back into the mkt. too soon. . . . We are indebted to you . . . . Stay healthy!
Dr. Weiss:
First a thank you to you and your staff for all you’re doing to keep the folks that follow you safe during these very difficult times. Many of us have been hurt by the mess that Wall St made and Washington DC in it’s attempt to repair it. Our savings and retirement funds that many of us were and maybe presently are counting on have been decimated.
I has CD’s in some of the banks that were in the weak bank list and am presently setting up a T-Bill account for my IRA and non-IRA funds that remain. I want to move most of my other funds that are currently in Chase to a strong bank. I checked the list and none of the one on the list have branches in my state. In looking through both the strong and weak bank list I noticed that neither list had any credit unions. In my state there is a rather large credit union (100 or so branches) that is very popular and I’ve been considering using it. Is there some reason that they don’t appear on either list? Are they generally safe? How can I go about checking this one out? Do they have restrictions more so than a regular bank that would have prevented or at leased minimized them from the current bank problems? Any advice is appreciated.
I have followed your information for about 3 months. I am begining to believe that perhaps your analysis is too gloomy. I appreciate your insights but I am not sure that all predicted will come true. We are indeed in the worste recession/depression since the big one. The amount of money thrown at this problem is so great on a global basis that a positive effect will be forth comming. What remains to be seen is how the world governments unwind this so as to prevent depression with inflation.
I ordered and read your book and found it useful in a more indepth understand of our current financial world. Thanks
The entire country will eventually follow if we don’t get rid of that all encompassing Federal Reserve, (which as someone has apply said is not Federal and certainly has no reserves) Someone (not me) pointed out that the bank bail out was 11.3 trillion and the entire mortgage debt in the nation is 11.2 trillion. Obvioully if they had bailed out the mortgage debt the people would have money to spend and the banks would have money to loan and GM could sell cars. This is obviously a planned move, just as was the last depression. Maybe the people will get wise.