Once again, your friendship and comments are touching me more than you could possibly know.
This morning, I was especially moved by a note posted here on my personal blog by one blogger, who says …
“There are no words to describe our indebtedness to you.
“You are the lone voice of reason, the man of the hour. I would personally hope to meet you someday and shake your hand.
“Thanks for all you do, for your father who influenced you to be the man you are, and for your willingness to step up in a spirit of helpfulness to middle class folks.”
Thank YOU!
And please be assured that my staff and I will continue doing everything in our power to help you weather this crisis. However, there are also many who are expressing confusion and uncertainty about what’s going on.
One investor quotes Apostle Paul, writing nearly 2000 years ago:
“For when they shall say, ‘Peace and Safety’ then sudden destruction cometh upon them … and they shall not escape.” The investor then asks: “Is that the situation we face in the stock market today? Is everything going to suddenly start crashing down on us? Or is ‘Peace and Safety’ truly here?
Still another follows up with the question:
“Are they right? Should I let down my guard and begin buying stocks again?”
And several have chimed in, asking simply:
“If things are really so bad, WHY have stocks risen so sharply?”
I would love to see YOU share your thoughts, based on your experience, what you see in the markets, your business and your communities. Combined, you have a pool of wisdom that is vast, deep and varied, and all of us — my team and I included — have much to learn from it.
But let me kick off the discussion with a few thoughts of my own.
My first thought is to look where we’ve come from and where we are in the stock market: Between October of 2007 and early March of this year, the Dow plunged more than 7,500 points — more than 54%. Since then, it has bounced back, rising about 2,000 points from its March low.
Now, suddenly, Washington and Wall Street Pollyannas are stampeding out of the woodwork to declare the equivalent of “Peace and Safety” — to proclaim that the recession is over, and to urge you to buy stocks with both hands.
Yet, no one disputes the fact that U.S. economy is still in the midst of its deepest and most dramatic contraction in more than a half century: Down 6.1% in the first three months of this year after plunging 6.4% in the last quarter of 2008.
Nor do they argue that the economy has begun to recover. Rather, all they’re talking about is signs that the decline may be progressing at a somewhat slower pace.
Despite the most massive bank rescue operation of all time, despite the most massive Federal Reserve asset buying escapade in history, that’s ALL we’ve got: A slowdown in the pace of the decline. And even if we DO get a mild recovery, it will still be horribly disappointing considering the tremendous resources that have been thrown into the pot … and the huge risks they imply.
No matter what the markets do in the near term, it is undeniable that we are experiencing a financial hurricane of the century. What no one seems to grasp is that storms of this magnitude invariably come with a massive eye of intermediate calm, and that the next phase can be even more devastating.
That’s how and why they are so easily seduced by the hype from Washington and Wall Street. And that’s why stocks can rally so sharply even while some of the highest winds continue to swirl all around us.
They fail to understand that no economic catastrophe has ever unfolded in a single stroke. No market crash has ever taken stock values on a nonstop ride to rock bottom.
Consider, for example, the Dow decline from 1929 through 1932:
If this experience teaches us anything, it’s that great economic calamities like ours today always unfold in a SERIES of moves as investors swing from shock and despair to desperate hope or even euphoria … only to be struck down again as the next phase of the crisis inevitably unfolds.
Between 1929 and 1932, the great crash was interrupted by no fewer than SEVEN bear market bounces! Each time, the bulls came out of the woodwork to declare the crisis had ended. And each time, investors who used these bear market bounces to load up on inverse investments had the opportunity to make a fortune when the next phase of the crisis struck.
QUESTION OF THE DAY:
What should a prudent investor do now?
Since as investors, our objective is to buy low and sell high …
Should you be chasing stocks that have already moved higher in this bear market bounce?
Or should you be loading up on inverse investments at bargain prices … hang on while the eye of this hurricane passes … and then go for windfall profits when the next phase of this storm hits with full force?
Click this link now to post your responses and comments.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 320 comments… read them below or add one }
I also appreciate your work. What about the lack of buying for US Bonds. What happens? Are we to expect massively higher interest rates? But what happens then to this horrible economy? I am really confused now. Meanwhile, B of A needs billions and their stock jumps 14%. What’s up with that?
Don Weiss _ What say you to Harry Dents long term Deflation expectations based on demographics and how they may affect gold?
Thank you
I am hoping the market will climb a bit more before the next downleg.
The problem is do we know that the cat has bounced as high as it is going to and is the carcass
soon to come crashing down to earth, or is it still on the ascent? For those who did not heed
your initial warning that seems so long ago, my opinion is that NOW is the time to sell and pick
up some inverse ETFs while they are still low.
The media appear to be pumping every rally as if they desperately want Obama to be relected.
I would like to know if we should pull our money out of BOA now. Is this the time for that?
Dear Dr Weiss…………..
Thank you for all you do! Briefly, my situation is such that……….the market did not wipe me out, but I have been spending my savings on healing for my son who has cancer……I have very little left, but am encourage to take your advice to invest in the market when it takes it’s hardest fall………………I will be listening keenly!
I would like to know what the consensus is for the catalyst for the next leg down in the market. With all the manipulation from the government and all the spin from the media, I don’t think that I will get a heads up from either. Your thoughts are well appreciated.
I’m going to buy some inverse ETFs (faz & skf) & hold on for the roller coaster ride down!!
Martin:
Thanks for this reminder . . . all too often, investors (and especially the novice investors) can easily get caught up in the hype that dribbles from news media (e.g. CNBC) regarding a market “turn-around.”
This rally will end soon; of that, I’m certain.
Martin:
While I enjoy you website I still don’t see many answers to the question “What do we do now?”. I am a small business owner who worked in sales most of my life and never had a 401K but I do have IRA’s worth about 100k at this time and like everyone else I have lost 38% of my money. It is all in various Mutual Funds with two seperate companies seperated into the 4 main catagories most people use, safe, growth, super growth and moderate risk. With the small gains we have seen do I leave it alone or do I move it? It may be all I have for the future as my business is under a lot of stress. Not a lot of people in Michigan want to borrow money from me or anyone else right now so I am trying to protect what little I have in IRA’s.
Linda
Dr. Weiss,
Thanks so much for your information and advice! I have a question about a topic which I have not yet seen you cover; if I am mistaken and you have already addressed this issue I’d appreciate it if you could point me in the right direction to find the information.
I am getting very concerned about my whole-life insurance policy with the Equitable. I have a current cash value of ~30k, and am due to make my yearly contribution soon. But I have a nasty feeling that when the insurance companies start taking the hits that appear to be inevitable, my policy may just evaporate.
What are your thoughts about the Equitable specifically, and the safety of these whole-life policy savings in general? Is it time for me to just pull out my accumulated cash before the insurance industry implodes? Or am I being too paranoid? An additional $30k to buy inverse ETFs or just to have as a bigger safety net would be nice, but I hate making a decision without enough information. Thanks for any advice you can give on this topic!
I am about to pull the trigger on FAZ and SRS. The banks and real-estate are wavering and the prognosis isn’t good. The bond market today gave us a hint of what is to come, I believe, because suddenly, bond investors want more interest for their risk and China seems more concerned…
Chris – I didn’t quite know what to think of the B of A stock increase either?? Didn’t make much sense to me. The media announces that the company is in financial trouble and it stock prices increase?? Don’t get it.
Mr. Weiss – Do you have an opinion on the Bilderberg Group? From what I understand, and no I am not a conspiratist, this stock market fall was planned long ago. The intention was for the market to crash and then rise on the hopes of having all the money people could possible invest, invested. Then the market would crash again. Leaving most people with empty pockets.
Right out of your latest book………Long Bonds met with much resistance at auction today. Your pick for the inverse ETF to long dated government bonds is performing well. Hope we have an update on this position soon. By that I mean, is it time to increase our holdings or hold tight to your recos. Thank you for being a true contrarian to the Wall Street and Washington bedmates.
In reponse to this comment Martin sent out on his e-mail “If things are really so bad, WHY have stocks risen so sharply?”
“The market is an insane asylum and the inmates have taken over”. Every rally we have seen in this market has come after real bad news. There is no sound bases for it. It’s all on whims, smoke and mirrors and sooner or later somene is going to be caught holding the bag! I agree with Martin and follow his wisdom.
I WAS TALKING TO TED WALSH THIS AM HE IS MY HAIRSTYLEST HE ASKED WHAT I DO ALL DAY I RESPONDED I TRADED STOCKS ETC THAT I HAVE FOLLOWED MARTIN WEISS FOR AT LEAST 20 YEARS HE WAS THRILLED BECAUSE HE HAS FOLLOWED YOU THAT LONG ALSO WE WILL NEVER LEAVE YOU MARTIN WE BOTH TRUST AND NEED YOUR ADVICE
Looks like a giant bear trap is in process. When will the trap shut? Your guess is as good as mine – 66% (at most) above the recent DJ low probably.
First, let me say thank you for the early and unambiguous warnings. I am still heavily invested a short term treasury money market because capital preservation trumps missed opportunity. But it is hard to stay disciplined while collecting no yield.
With banks being required to raise additional capital following the stress test results, would you consider buying cd’s from any of them if the yields are decent? Also, what term would you recommend, considering the recent bond market action?
Many thanks, and god bless
I seek your advice. Should I pay off my $92,000 mortgage 30 years fix at 5.37% interest. I have $130,000 in cash, and $300,000 in 401K.I am 75 and my wife 78 years old. Thank you
I have moved about 25% of my IRA into a Money Market Account. Some into TIPS and the rest into index funds. I anticipate moving most of it into Money Market and TIPS before the bottom falls out.
Return to the safety of cash, (or even inverse etfs), when the S&P drops back to 850 level. Just my guess as the smart thing to do in May!
Thankyou Martin for your very well informed guidance! I’m implementing your safety first rules. In the interest of profiting in a conservative way, it appears that long term treasury rates may finally be breaking out to the upside. I’m taking a small initial position in Ultra Short 20 yr + Treasury Pro Shares (TBT) today.
follow your advice ……..stay defensive………….bought SKF today on reversal, with exceptionally large vloume of 78,000,000 shares +-
Thank you dear Martin for all you do, as you remember me to be very careful. I have made some 30 trades of late with lots of winners of 40% or more and took the money off this big casino table. Now I have very soon no more stocks to sell and as they say : Sell i May and go away ! I still wouldn’t be surprised to see this rally last 20 days or more, but it looks like exhausted. For any one wishing to buy anything more I would keep very close stops, and always set stops, very close stops, so that you know in advance what you might lose. Set yourself also targets and sell at these targets. Dear Martin Weiss, receive please all my gratitude, you and your team ! I never stop thinking of you and your advices. God bless everyone and take us to a road to better times.
My feeling is that eventually we will get inflation that will drive commodity prices up, treasuries down, stocks down, dollar down and gold up. The problem this may take a week, 6 months or 3 years. Just because We think it will do something from a logical sense, does not mean it will. We may have to wait and suffer from either not being in the market or being in inverse ETFs that are losing money. So, i think you keep some stocks and funds that are in equities and but go to cash for some of your assets and buy some inverse etfs. Once the market starts to gain momentum on the downside, then get to cash or inverse etfs. Gotta pay attention though.
I think that it is incredible that our government, the Fed, and GS would be involved in such deception and collusion, to change the rules to suit themselves and declare that they are out of danger. Such manipulation, shouldn’t surprise us, especially since it is coming on the heels of the greatest robbery in modern history. The derivatives theft is so large, that experts can not even assess how large it really was. No one can trace the convoluted path that the money has taken before the house of cards finally collapsed. The bailouts were merely the icing on the cake. Now we are told to believe that the worst is behind us and we should happily pretend that all is well.
The very people we elected..and this goes out to both sides of the aisle, to protect us from such wrongdoings, are stumbling and bumbling and mumbling, are doing nothing to bring prosecutions against those who engineered and partook of this milking of our money. These politicians are complicit and accessories to the crime.
Martin, I follow your comments quite regularly. It seems like we are being led on this expedition to nowhere, they are just finding ways of taking all our money and throwing it into a huge whirlpool that seems to suck it all up. It is really scary. We might end up becoming the poorest nation ever – poor in morality and poor in every way.
Regardless of the stock market, we still have to work the debt out of the system.
This will take time and a continuing devaluation. In all actuality, not much has been done and not much of all the trillions of dollars has been spent or deployed.
I am not buying stock, nor am I buying what the lying gov’t is saying. Period. Although not from Missouri, I did live there for a while. When millions get back to work, I will get back to investing. Some very bad times are coming and the economy is just a small part of it.
At this point, I still choose prudence over greed.
Thank you Martin Weiss. My personal gratitude to you for all of your help and guidence.
We need people like you in Congress and the Senate.
Dr. R. Barbieri
Ashby, MA
Well, I have been investing in the market for over 50 years and have accrued several fortunes and lost several. On the whole i am considerably ahead and I found that investing in stocks was much better than bonds and my ex perience with ETfs. and options has beenmuch less rewarding than buying and holding stocks.
I wish I had the answer to your question. I just don’t know. I’m in the same place as teresa, as my son is in ICU, trying to survive another set-back from his cancer. It is so hard to watch him suffer!!! My heart goes out to teresa.
Bob
Hello Martin: I read your Money and Markets daily, now a recent Safe Money subscriber. I enjoyed your book and bought 4 to share. I have purchased SRS in six transactions ranging from 28 to 21. Your recent email speaks to loading up on Inverse ETFs and I understand your philosophy, being that I have been invested in Commercial real estate for over 30 years. Here in Oregon we are seeing commercial and industrial values and rents moving downward rapidly. Commercial rents that were once $18/SF, now Landlords’ are willing to take $12/SF. Just received an email For Sale flyer from another real estate broker notifying the market of a $140,000 reduction in Price, New Price $850,000. The Deflation you speak of, is happening. Yet I’m also seeing the inflation heating up in some Gold Mining Stocks and natural resource ETFs’ like OSU. My thought is to cover both bases and own some Inflation and Deflation benefitting assets.
On another note. We own some FXF Swiss Francs and bought near the top of the market at 98 and have been waiting to long for these to increase in value. Thinking about selling half and putting into more SRS and/or GLD. What do you think?
Appreciate You, Don
Mr. Weiss, I’ve followed you faithfully for years through your SafeMoney Report. However, my husband died late last year. I am holding on to our savings through Amer.Century Cap.Preservation. Cannot invest any longer at my age. I just know that what you have to say always proves true. Would like to know though if I should sell my home, where would be the alternative to put it? Is Gold the place? God Bless you for your honesty. A.D.
Martin:
God bless. You are truly the “watchman on the wall”. Thanks for everything!
I greatly appreciate your honest and candid comments concerning the economic problems we are facing. In my opinion, yes, it is the saying “Peace and Safety” and then comes destruction. Although one might question whether the United States ever was a Christian nation, it certainly has had a lot of Christian citizens who have tried to live Godly and moral lives. Now we are seeing and have seen a drastic change in the moral attitude and character of the nation, and especially in the leaders, both social and political. Sodom and Gomorrah were destroyed at least in part because of their homosexual attitude – we get the word Sodomy from Sodom. The Bible clearly indicates that homosexual behavior is an abomination in the eyes of God. We depend on God for our very existence and turning our backs on Him and doing things He calls an abomination is not the way to win or keep His protection and continued blessings. The daily news is filled with crime, natural disasters have been happening in increasing numbers and magnitude, and we hear rumors of impending pandemics and worldwide famine. War is a constant in the world. I think we are facing “then sudden destruction”. However, I do not know what to advise concerning financial investments. The best and greatest protection anyone can have is to be genuinely honest and loving in serving God, recognizing that even so Christians will endure trials and tribulations. The Bible promises that though they endure many God will reward them. People would be doing themselves a favor to save a large nest egg if they can, strive to improve and expand their marketable job skills, and be cautious in financial investments. Sometimes you just can’t afford to invest until you have saved enough money to see you through a financial squeeze, and have reduced or eliminated your debts. When the whole financial world is crumbling around you the gurus want and need you to invest to bring the economy back to health, but it will never be healthy as long as greedly, immoral and unwise leaders continue to do all the wrong things. If you do not look out for yourself, they will victimize you. I think eventually the United States will return to a semblance of a booming economy, but it will be embedded in a corrupt and persecuting environment unlike anything we have ever experienced before.
Would rather you didn’t use my name please. Thanks again. A.D.
I live in Mexico … as they say when the US has a cold , we catch pneumonia. Although the Mex stock market gained almost 10 % in 3 sessions the basis are very flimsy and the collpse is going to be very hard . Further the Mex economy is in real trouble.
1— oil revenues are almost 30% of the federal budget : Production is down 15-20% and the coverage ( future sales at 70 per barrel) will be over in july.
2– Mexico´s second source of foreign resources is way down due to the ill perceived and yellow reporting on the security issue
3– moneys sent by the migrant workers is also down due to a) the economic situation in the US ,b) the campaign against undocumented workers.
Thank God , God is Mexican ; otherwise we would be in serious trouble.
Martin
Thank you for your excellent and fair advise. GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY
Your comments help to influence my investment decisions. I agree that this is a bear market bounce and I believe in your statements that 5000 on the Dow is to be expected. Certainly your statements influenced my decisions last year which was a very good year.
As this bounce comes to an end I expect to go into the commercial real estate and the REITS and some of the tech group. (short)
Will I do as well as last year? If your (and my) analysis is correct – perhaps.
The Great Depreciation weighs heavy and your comments from your Father’s files are always of interest. My Father was not as fortunate as your Father – he went in business with $800 in the bank and one month’s rent paid and the bank closed. He took on the Desoto – Plymouth agency in 1936 and got in the 1937 automobiles and you know what happened in 1937.
I remember Hoover Town and people coming to the back door and asking for food.
As an economist my thoughts of the future are not good.
Perhaps you can help a few of us to get through these trying times with some fortune I hope so.
Nough said.
I have sit and watched house prices rise beyond belief where the average man or woman could not afford them. In addition, I have watched the average american household compete with the Jones and put themselves into considerable debt and grow their credit card debt to ten thousand a household. One key word could of stopped all of this “discipline”. There is no free lunch and regardless of the idiots who created the money trees and then disappeared without moral obligations during or after the bottom line is still “discipline”. I have worked the world over and seen the poorest of the poor whom have very little in the way of materialistic items. But most had one thing in common “discipline”. They save what little they can and use common sense as a means of surivival because they have no choice. A debt ridden society does not solve the answer….as the relatives who survived during the hard years. Now let’s take it to the next level our faithful government who just keeps giving more trillions away and putting us farther in debt with a narrowing tunnel of hope out of this mess. They again, have no discipline. Until the magic world is rediscovered and practiced we will continue to move deeper into the abyiss. What more do you need to see that the growth and savings that are occuring in China.
I am really confuse now a days your side everything will fall from the sky coming soon. Other analyst keep saying it is now time to buy cause the change upward will be drastic and investor will be left behind. Last July and october 2007 market was bearish and ate up all the meat they have encounter, cause we do not have a leader to protect and cover all the detail. he was non factor in presiding the USA economy, it seems that his attitude is i do not care care cause this is the last year i will run this damn country. Now we have a leader who is been lying to his bone. Please lead me to the exact situation.
Why don’t people understand the reason why the market is advancing.
In 2003-04 these people in government were determined to shut the bears up and it’s been a great cost to the tax payer. Lies about increasing house prices and getting people to release equity on the back of it to buy cars and holidays.
Where do people think the money is coming from now.
The markets are rallying because bailout money is being given to city boys playing games instead of it reaching business thats why.
Who’s gonna pay for that, the man in the street. Please guys, Martin knows what he is talking about, this is a trap.
Ang
Its like someone above is guarding us, but through Martin .
Thank God for the likes.
I wonder if a prudent investor would rely so heavily on historical charts? This situation seems anomalous in many ways. This adds to the confusion of how to proceed. If this is a government induced U shaped recession, then couldn’t this rally last until it creates bubbles that will burst years, not months from now?
I sold half my position in BAC and GE today. Picked up some short SPG and MAC… I love your columns and straight, no nonsense talk!
This stress test is a joke! What about the financial stress that the American people have been under? Thank G-d I still have my job!
I have a Stable Value investment option in my 401K, with fixed quarterly interest, offered through Transamerica Financial Life Ins. The Safe Money Banking Guide does not list them at all. This is by far the most conservative offer my plan has, but is it safe for continued contributions?
I would still like to know if it is wise to keep a Allianz powerhouse annuity that will mature in four years. Thank you, John
Dear Mr. Weiss,
I ordered your Ultimate Depression Guide book, but it has not arrived yet so I have not a chance to see what is inside. I have been busy doing some volunteering at some elementary school, and I could tell that the word NEED is going on there. For example, I had to bring some of my own papers over there so kids can use for their activities. I appreciate your endevour to help another fellow man. My common sense is telling me that things are not normal, and I cannot wait to discover inside your UDG book what is the safetiest way to keep floating during the impending problems. Thank you so much. Mung
My experience with stocks is that I’ve lost money all my investing life in the market (which is about 13 years) and I now view it like a casino – you can have a few good streaks but over the long-term the house wins. If not for the penalty for early IRA withdrawal I would just take the money out and pay down my mortgage.
As far as the question – chase stocks that are up in the past several weeks or buy inverse ETFs and hang on – my position is neither. I am losing money in SH (inverse the S&P 500). I wish the government would quit debasing the dollar and quit creating 0% interest rates so I could have cash be a store of value. I’m not sure what to do. If it weren’t for the government printing money and giving it to their banker friends, I would feel totally comfortable with SH. With the dollar now being treated like Doritos (lend them to people that can’t pay you back, we’ll print more!), I’m not sure. Lean to ETFs though since I have one! (Nothing like losing money on the way down and the way up.)
Martin,
MAJOR kudos to you! I have been following you since the mid 80’s when my Father subscribed & spoke with you about the safety & stability of the S&L’s in the Country. He was the President of one of the ‘top ten performers’ in the US at that time and we paid attention to what was coming. Between you and Robert Prechtor of ‘The Elliott Wave Theorist’, it convinced us that it was indeed time to merge, have the folks retire and call it a day. And we did so successfully!
The reason that I stopped listening to you is because of the Y2K debacle… or lack thereof. NOW however, your words ring louder and even more clearly than they did back then. I am sincerely glad that my caution flags were up and I was able to get up & out when we did.
Is it at all possible to get you on Glenn Beck on FOX News? You are a well studied professional that understands clearly just where we are in the business cycle as well as socially/politically. Your input to Beck’s program would be heard by thousands and I believe it is a true service to all.
May God Bless you! May God Bless this Country as we surely need it more now than ever!
Again thank you for your ‘words of warning’.
Bill (way) UpNorth…
If any one can figure anything but a great deflationary period caused by uneployment beyond belief I dont know how except for the great inflation that must come from cheap money brought on by spending borrowed and printed money beyond any imagination. M.C Van Horn
Thanks Again Martin for thinking of “us” and your concerns; I am 75 yrs old /wife is 70yrs. we are currently on a structured income with M/S (mutual funds/stocks) ..our
portfolio is worth approx. 50% of it value (prior to OCT/2008)…mutual funds=80%
and stock=20%..My ? is is there a “safer way to structure” our acct. for better duration
..as it will with out a doubt continue to decline in this “untamed economy”..R.Hayes
Martin:
We feel you are sincere but above all honest. This is hard to find. We are following and adding to the Million Dollar Potfolio but wonder if it would be wise to have an investment also in the Weiss Investment fund with your group managing it?
May God bless you in these terrible times.
Margaret & Harry
Hi Martin, and thank you for your efforts and honesty. I feel there is money to be made inh this market, does’nt matter what you call it, a rally is a rally is a rally. Historically speaking, even a rally after a crash would still gain roughly half it’s lost value and climb for 4-6 months. Given that I expect this rally to climb to almost 11,000 dow before another decline, probably in October. The stimulus, and the positive feelings of Americans should drive us to that point. I believe in America, and we should all be very judicious with our money, but let’s make a few bucks and help America to. Forget gold, forget the overseas investments, we have great companies right here doing great things. Times are changing, for every GM, there is an Apple, for every B of A, there is a RIMM. Let’s get America back where we belong, on top of the world, not looking to China or Brazil, or Russia, right here in the greatest country the world has ever known or will know. The future is here and now, be conservative, but be smart, make some money when you can and help OUR country.
Get ready for a short bout of inflationary pressures as oil begins to recover prior to the next wave of mortgage and commercial property failures…Purchase jr gold stocks and batten down the hatches…
If you want to make money you need to invest in the market as it trends up and down but it is a lot of work right and is all consuming but there is money to be made. Otherwise buy gold and sit tight in a few years you will probably make out. The market seems to be repeating what happened in the 30’s, if it continues, over the next year or so we will continue to see a downward trend or at best sideways.
What company can make money with so much capital being lost and the fear that has impacted the consumer? At least in the semiconductor industry, the business I work in, the results of this downturn are horrible. There are many things I wish would happen to our economy but until we figure out that sending our hard work overseas for false short term profits is foolish and not healthy we will loose. I don’t mind supporting our friends overseas but how about a healthy US economy for a change? How about a US that can support itself financially? Long term I still like technology and believe in us but you can’t fight this wave right now? So don’t try.
I do believe that some well run and financially sound businesses are out there but should be reviewed with great caution. What I am really disturbed about is the Government talking about more bail-out money for the banks and other financial institutions. Enough already! Let some of them fail! Good people will pick up the assets whatever they amount to and make things work. That’s the American way. God bless us all and God bless the United States of America and God rest the souls th at have given their life’s blood for our safety and very existance.
Vic- way down south but originally from the center of the “Motor City” way up north!
Hi Martin,
I think the big question everyone is seeking an answer to is this.
All the facts (that we know of) indicate that the economy is in dire shape. I won’t list the issues concerned as they are available on news bulletins, investor sites, etc.
All of these issues would indicate that this is not a time to be buying stocks. However, all the hype, including talk of green shoots of growth, successful bailouts, hitting bottom, coupled with the fact that all markets are rising, have investors wondering if the train is leaving the station while they are still on the platform. This coupled with the thought that perhaps there is some form of fourth dimension (I use this term lightheartedly) of the investing type that is not so obvious, something that does in fact have the ability to overcome all the factual negatives and carry this rally through as a real bull move forward. That I think is the question, the facts say stay away from the markets but everything else says it’s time to get back in. Which will be right, the facts or the investors fourth dimension?
The Bible clearly tells us that in the end times, there will be a strong delusion to those who clearly reject the truth and want to believe in lies. I cannot help but think that both political parties are one and the same and that they are controlled by the international bankers, (IE, the Federal Reserve, The World Bank, and The International Monetary Fund) are the ones giving us the “Strong Delusion.” These international bankers are setting us up for “sudden destruction” and the “strong delusion” in order to set up their “New World Order” and scare us into giving everything up by their Problem, Reaction, Solution theme. For example, Problem=economic crisis,(Psst, which they caused in the first place), Reaction=Panic, fear, Depression, Solution=New World Order. I clearly believe this is setting us up for the Sudden Destruction and The Strong Delusion.
God bless. Thanks for all the sound advice on the market. You anology is on target, the market is behaving like a category 5 hurricane. We are in the huge eye right now and that explains the euphoria we see at present. I am going to hang on while the eye passes and then go for windfall profits when the next phase of the storm hits with full force.
Martin – you and your staff have been right on every call since before this crisis began. You should take pride in having saved those folks who were smart enough to follow your advise the financial resources they would otherwise not have right now without that advise.
You described this market bounce as the eye of a storm which makes people believe that it’s over, but, as you’ve warned, I believe worse is yet to come with the commercial loans coming up for renewal that companies won’t have the resources to qualify to renew and the banks and institutions will not have the resources to risk. When that happens this hurricane we have experienced will turn into a Tsunami that I hope our country will be able to withstand.
I agree that this crisis is far from over and the financial shell game our government is playing with our financial institutions to cook the books in hopes of fooling the public is going to cost the American public dearly for generations to come. What I can’t figure out is why our leadership won’t listen to the common sense approach you have been advocating.
Keep up the good fight. At some point they will have to start listening.
This whole economic melt down was intentional and caused by the likes of the Federal Reserve Board (nothing more than a private banking cartel), Hedge Funds and organizations associated with these groups.
If the economic demise was intentional so that business’s, countries and banks could be bought up cheap (just like JP Morgan did in the 20’s and 30’s), and we are witnessing again today. Could it be that the global elite have almost finished there “shopping purchases”, and hopefully they will signal a time for improved economics conditions, so that they can reap the rewards of their destruction with higher share prices. A sad but true vicious cycle.
In a nutshell what I am saying is, planned financial demise, planned financial recovery. It’s just a matter of seeing the improvements and taking steps when turnarounds happen.
Fear keeps joe average out of the market, which is usually the best time to be buying
Shela Baird is a shister, She wants the power to not just take over banks but their holding company too. DO YOU KNOW WHY? It is because she is going to (or should be)in big trouble over her confiscation of Washington mutual Bank. I think she should be fired and JP morgan should be broken up!!
Hello Martin
I am an unemployed High Tech professional. So far life was good and my profession was keeping me busy. This is the first time I find myself in a position to take care of my investments. I read your book for educating myself several times, very interesting and an eye opener for a novice like me who does not know ABC of economics. Most of my money is sitting in a Cash as you have suggested in your book. Following your First commandment of Safety First. Bought some SRS first time after observing the market going up for last couple of week just to test out the second commandment. I understand the market has mind of its own and by its own nature very unpredicatble. I think a majority of unemployed novice like me are trying to make up for lost paycheck in diffcult time. Unless a reasoning voice provide us much needed guidence the odds are not n our favour. Thanks for educating us. Please Keep up the good work.
I am in total agreement with your analysis of the economic situation. I have brought some inverse ETFs like SKF and GLD and have losses for the short term. But am confident they will turn around SUDDENTLY. I am a tax accountant (CPA) but enjoy the investment side and though i have suffered like everyone else in the recent downturn I will not be fooled again. I donot believe in Washington because they are not telling the American people the true. We are in deep trouble financially, and most importantly spiritually. God has already judged American by given us poor leaders and as the leaders go so does the country. Thank you for your warnings.
I have sat out most of the current rally, partly because people like Martin and others were saying that it wouldn’t last. This is not to criticize Martin and others, who ultimately will be proven correct, but just to say that one could have made a lot of money in this rally if one had gotten in early. This is a strong rally, which I agree can’t last. I finally got in with a triple bullish ETF (meaning it moves triple the direction of the underlying index, the Russell 3000). I still have most of my money in cash, though I think I will buy more stocks sometime in early June. I think we will see a slight pullback between now and the end of May. Eventually, there will be a “crackup boom” that many people will mistake for the end of the bear. However, the boom will be the result of people realizing that the dollar is losing value and that only tangible things that have value are the only things worth holding. I think that will start sometime late this year, following another sharp downturn. Next summer I’ll be moving most of my money to inverse ETFs, which will be super cheap after the final boom, and precious metals, so as to hedge against the hyperinflation that’s coming. Thank you to Martin for not being a Wall Street cheerleader.
Martin,
You seem to be absolutely sure that the stock market will soon or at least sooner or later take another big hit. On a percentage basis. What are the chances that the stock market has already hit bottom in your opinion?
I watched a Newsmax video that is contrarian to your approach but uses your same methods like giving members a two day advance of what your million dollar will invest in.
It seems that they copied your methods but are for buying stocks now.
Robert
Hi Martin:
There is no question that this is nothing but a bear rally. I am a believer and avid follower of Elliott Wave. If the apex of the grand supercycle rally was truly 2000, then
we are in for a rude ride down and have only scratched the surface. Congratulations on
being way out front of such destruction and even more for your integrity. You are our
oasis in a barren economic landscape. I wish you were in the White House!
Maureen
Group mentality is a strong force. For instance, my group, small business owners and middle class Americans are being battered every day with hype from Wall Street and the US Gov’t while we watch every bit of business around us decline dramatically, home prices fall, savings erode. Collectively we see the sky falling while we get a compelling message from the media, another group with its own sort of mindset, that, “everything is going to be just fine.”
I think the US Congress is also a group. Through years of conditioning they have come to a group belief that they can fix anything that’s broken, that there is no amount of money that’s too large to throw at a problem and that we “little people” just don’t get it. What worries me is that they seem to care less and less what we think.
Having considered all the options, I feel safer knowing that my money is safe right now. For those asking whether they should be back in the stock market I would say that it could sink faster than the Titanic and totally without warning. You will lucky to escape with the clothes on your back.
Martin, I am a believer. I’ve bought your book and recommened it to friends. I’ve followed your E-mail prognastications five months now and find them sensible and accurate on the whole. Recently, I bought two contrarian ETF’s (SRS and FAZ), and they are presently down substantially. Should I hold on or cut my losses? Right now, I’m leaning toward holding on. Best, James
Dear Martin and your team,
I have been with you for many years now and you sometimes seem to be the one of Gloom and Doom but in reality it is not the negative things you say it is the reality of the situation that we should focus on. You appear to be giving us the information we need to handle this situation and try to profit from it. While I agree with that theory the real things that happen with the market and the real people that sell it to us therefore make it impossible to get the best results because of they way they paint the picture. I am not a conservative investor but what I learned from you and your staff and a financial advisor who is realistic but a bit too positive of what’s happening is that inverse funds and some of the other products you think should work now are tough to buy because the market keeps going back up and probably will come down again.
From what I’ve learned is that you are 100% right that we haven’t hit bottom. Some people tell me that some of the small companies are doing well, which is true, but what I see is the big picture that these BIG companies need to clean up their act and get back to basics of a business without the inflated numbers of the past. These companies control trillions of dollars in the world and therefore they control the whole situation.
Yes I think that I can live a decent life with a more realistic set of stocks that at many times were perceived to get us all rich but in reality will give us a decent life as long as these businesses do what they are supposed to do and run their companies with REAL numbers. They still can make a profit and make everyone happy with out being so greedy. This also reminds of the little guy that gets a bonus that is so minute in comparison to the big guys and yet I have already said that they should share this more with their employees as we are the ones doing the majority of the work while they may be smart and good no one should be making the money they these corporate executives, movie stars and professional sports people make as it is totally out of control which in turn filters down to us who have to pay for it.
I have lost my share of money over many years mainly because I needed it badly to be able to survive 2 divorces and support of my ex-wives and children which put me in a position that I was too aggressive to try and change without much luck. While I feel being aggressive is great it sometimes clouded my vision of what I should have really done.
Saying this I feel that I will wait hoping that I can have an opportunity later after the bottom real hits to make the moves correctly.
I value all you and your team have said BUT like I said the forces in the market are bigger than what you say and that makes it extremely hard to follow all of your advice BUT it also gives me enough information to make a truly informed if not always good decision. I would suggest to you that you and your team bear this in mind when also making your decisions and realize that this approach might even work better.
I thank you and your team for all you have done and I will continue to keep listening and figuring and trying to make sense of this all. And you should continue to go after everything you believe in as it is one of the few truly accurate informational sources out there.
Thnx and regards ……Ike Cohen
A prudent investor should remember to look at the bearish forest — not the bullish trees. A prudent investor should remember to stay focused on the big picture of the violent financial storm — not the confusing headwinds of this bear market trap.
A prudent investor should remember to analyze the charts — the charts that never lie — and remember that this market will continue its massive destruction before its jagged yet relentless trip to new lows is done. Remember the market will often do what is least expected in the short run, but in the long run it does what it has to do because there is no other choice but to conform to total market forces that go where they must.
This is a market which eats the young and the inexperienced investor, so the only way to beat it is to do your homework…and keep the perspective that if you follow the crowd, you will be led over the cliff of financial destruction. Fear not because you will be engulfed; rather have faith and confidence in the wisdom of market gurus like Martin and his talented team.
Listen to what Mr. Weiss says about his father’s experience…and how he waited patiently as he watched the bear traps of The Great Depression 1 destroy fortunes and lives. The only difference between those times and this Great Depression 2 is that we all believe we are wiser and can somehow avoid the pitfalls of the past with government intervention and bailouts. Of course, this interference will only makes things worse because economic fundamentals must apply.
The fact is this really is “all about the economy stupid” — and the economy is gravely wounded and near death. We do not have the medicine to fix it now. It’s like a new drug to cure the economic cancer that has not been discovered. And it probably want be in your life time or mine. It will probably take generations of paying off these massive bailouts, a balanced budget and a return to economic sanity before this almost unrepairable damage is repaired.
Be careful. If you go long, Mr. Market will be waiting for you at the bottom. He’s the one that always smiles during these bear market traps.
Hello everyone..Any idea when this rally will end?What inverse etfs should we position ourselves in?I have several gold and silver positions as well as bullion itself,what else should I be doing to protect myself..I am very worried about the future and the employment situation..Why is it that I hear it is getting better?has unemployment peaked?
This bear market bounce is due primarily to millions of retirement accounts and other investment funds having to go SOMEwhere. The “investments” will yield terrible dividends. Eventually reality will hit and it will be agonizing.
Where REALLY to invest?
First in water, food, soaps, necessities. Next year tomatoes will be $1000 a pound–but you have yours dried or canned. If necessary, create a storage room and corporate structure to hold these investments, and you “buy” the food you invested in at the same price you invested, hence no taxable gain.
Second, invest in barter returns. I am looking for investors to sponsor high-quality beyond-Organic farms like Polyface Farm, where the investor would be paid in food year after year, rather than in currency.
As it is, millionaires will starve to death if they do not catch on in time.
I met you in the 70s when you held a workshop and then introduced your father.
Such decades long experience with markets gives you the qualifications that most pundits lack.
While I totally agree with your view on this very serious scenario, I notice that you are only now putting much more emphasis on holding gold. I, for one bought mine long ago.
And you seem to have full faith in the gold holdings of GLD. Is it really there?
William in Canada
I am a strong Christian believer who listens to the still small voice of the Holy Spirit. He told me in 1965 “I am going to show you how to make a great deal of money in the stock market (in which I was dabbling at the time). I said GREAT how do I do that. He said “The stock market is a gambling den controlled by theives who manipulate it to THEIR benefit.
GET OUT AND STAY OUT!”. I did that and only went back in twice in the intervening years. Each time I lost $800,000. at the hands of “friends”. NO MORE!!!
EVERYTHING, stock market included, is going straight to hell the last quarter of this year.
Personally, I am converting eveything I have to freeze dried foods and bags of junk sillver.
Silver and gold will go thru the roof in he 4th quarter. There will be food riots and starvation. Yes right here in the formerly great USA. Get Lindsey Williams predictions CD. He was one of the insiders and KNOWS their agenda.
This has all been planned for decades, Bob
Thank you for being honest. You have kept me out of the market when I wanted to jump in at my peril. I have been through the Great Depression and time in the U. S. Navy during WWII and I pray that we do not go through either of them again. We are certainly not there yet. My assets are much more limited than they were at one time. Fear kept me out of the market the last time when I should have been buying something, so, I trust that you will guide us when it is safe to start nibbling again. Keep trying to inform our leaders. I worry about the debt we are leaving for our grandchildren.
I too think Mr Weiss is a clever person; however the governments are not going to let this financial mess run a natural course; or at least that’s what they imply. To me this means the old ‘29, or recent crashes, will not be the same as this one. (by definition)
Simply, all bets are off. In the longer term I don’t think it will be profit we will be looking for; more like survival. To me this means no debt, a secure place, and good food and medicines. i.e. Back to reality; the sooner the better. Stop the world, I’d like to get off.
I wish I could help…is this the beginning of a genuine recovery? But I just don’t know. The signals coming from Washington are truly works of black art. The spin merchants are in full motion, waxing optimistically over what would normally be horrible statistics. The current market reflects the gullibility of the investors. I would love to see some positive signs…but I don’t. I think now is the time to cautiously select some inverse ETFs–not “load up”–and wait to see just how badly the next downturn bites. We have panicky amateurs at the helm and there’s no telling what they’re liable to do.
Meanwhile, keep your hand on your wallet. –Ronald
I don’t understand. Is the purpose of this blog to advise Martin about our concerns? If so, I would very much appreciate his thoughts on two specific questions:
1- is this a good time to buy a house or can real estate prices be expected to sink further? and will mtg int rates go up soon?; and 2- are Ginnie Mae funds safe and can I put a fair amount of my money in them? I hope Martin will reply to these two questions.
Bought the new book and learned a lot from it.
Thank you, Dr. Weiss, for all you do. Truly, your words were calming in a very confused time for me and really led the way on what I should be thinking about, bringing some order out of very chaotic thinking on my part. Mostly I was bewidered, not having a clue what to do let alone what would be best to do. Thank you, thank you, for bringing reason to my doorstep or rather, my computer screen.
Locally, here in central coastal California, one wouldn’t know of any economic slowdown. Traffic is heavy, stores are open, conversations are about the usual. I’ve asked some service people how it’s going, they are very busy they reply. My Family members are all employed, one opening a new shop, another buying a new home. All is as usual there too. It looks and feels like nothing has changed here. Newspapers and t.v. are the ones who tell a far different story.
I would like to believe the optimism of the press about the stock market, I’d love to invest without a qualm. But I’m not, I’m sitting tight and waiting. Waiting for housing prices to fall further as I believe they should. Waiting for congress to do a lot of things they aren’t doing and the feds to stop doing what they are doing. I’m waiting for all the reading I’m doing to gel into some kind of confidence that here I can place an investment, generate some income from it and it will be there tomorrow, behaving and existing with some solidity.
As it is, I have no trust in Moody’s et al., ditto financial institutions and ditto our reps in Washington. So, I’m sitting tight.
Martin, I have just finished reading your latest book, magnificent, eye opening, all backed what you and your father forecast would happen. I only hope that the ultimate depth does not arrive, but if not, then what? A question, you list the most unhealthy banks in the USA. I bank with HSBC, both here and in Panama. I know that HSBC has a horrendous leverage due to derivitives, but nowhere can I find a rating on them. Should I be seeking a ’safer’ bank.
Regards
Dear Dr. Weiss,
In response to your question, should you be loading up on inverse investments at bargain prices. I believe we should be loading the boat with ETF’s especially the Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ). This ETF has dropped into the mid $5 range. What’s your take on this suggestion?
Greetings Martin,
Again, I appreciate your wisdom and the professional approach and the concern you take to these trying financial times, making the decisions we all must make much clearer.
Your guidance along the way has saved my portfolio from certain ruin and for this I will
always be grateful for your expert advice.
I believe that each of us have an obligation to ourselves, based on your timely information, to swim to safety or to take on additional risk.
Investment style and individual circumstances may vary considerabley for each of us as “one size” does not fit all.
I have read dozens of the blog letters and I think that a lot of readers are looking for a timing cue as to when the net leg down will take place.
Perhaps not so easy to determine in such an emotionally driven frenzied market.
It will happen and when it does none of your readers can ever say I never saw the train comming! You have blown the whistle and sounded the alarm and have prepared us for the worst.
Many many thanks Martin to you and yourt staff!
Sincerely James Green
Dear Martin,
With all my retirement tied up in annuities (that I was unwisely invested in on the advice of a greedy salesmen disguised as an investment advisor) I need to take out money from one annuity to pay off a house I committed to and very much want to go live in in Playa del Carmen. What should I do with the remaining annuity that is the only other retirement income I have? It is in AXA Equitable which has the harshest early withdrawal fees. Is there any way to avoid taxes? I turn 58 in an few months. I hate my job at a hospital working long shifts as a nurse. Actually their is very little income on these annuities since they’ve lost almost half their value. What say you?
I was expecting the real estate bubble to burst from 2005 onwards . When I chanced upon your excellent emails and website they confirmed what I had expected for years . I would like to thank you for the great deal of important information you have sent in your emails .
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned on your emails is the following .
The government besides posting misleading data on employment , GDP and the stress test are also I strongly believe manipulating the stocks in the Dow industrial index . They do this by buying up the DWI futures just before market opens and then putting large buy orders at the start . As an options trader who watches the market closely this has become obvious to me . There is an interesting report on a website named Sprott management that documents much information on the manipulation of the dow .
Hello,
I have been studying financial charts for 40 years with fractal geometry. I can tell you that within the next several months after this current ralley, the US will see the worst financial crash in history. It will take the DOW to 400 or lower. Most people, including Weiss, are seriously underestimating the MAGNITUDE of what is approaching. This is the end of a 500 year historical cycle and it will take no prisoners! Real Estate has just begun its crash. Phase one of the crash which we have just seen, is the shot across the bow. The next phase down is the broadside! Even “The Oracle of Omaha” is totally lost!! My charts are very accurate and these patterns are easy. Cheers, Bill
Definitely staying away from thne stock market. Bought the book last week and want to know more about the inverse etfs.
Jim
All market advisors and newsletters are usually right… SOONER or LATER… The trick is to determine not the “what ” but the “When”. I value your insight and even more, your williingness to provide your logic… Most valuable….
There are those who will say that predicting disaster is what brings it about. Politicians believe the reverse is also true: that if enough people believe the illusion that everything is alright, it will become so. There are, however, dire economic forces at work in the world today that a mere surge in investor or consumer confidence cannot reverse. Martin, thank you for preparing us for the worst. At least now we can be active participants in the eventual recovery when the storm has passed, confident that we have best protected what we have. to rebuild the future.
Martin, todays drop in stocks is just what I was expecting. American companies are in trouble as are our banks and no bullish run on stocks will stay the course until our government leaders are forced to cut run away spending instead of borrowing more to spend. They have taken the worse approach that could have been taken to correct the economic situation. This situation has been building for decades as the government spent far more than it had coming in and so did companies such as banks, auto makers, insurance companies and the American public. No person, company or agency can spend more than they bring in and stay solvent very long. We spend too much on wars, social programs such as welfare and foreign aid with no return on those investments. Poor government management for decades and public spending beyond our means brought us to this crisis. I believe our current leadership will borrow more money to give to GM, banks and others that have badly managed their funds for years. This will devalue the dollar even more to the point that it will be worthless. I do not see anything bright in America’s future given the continual mismanagement of the tax payers money. I am investing houses to rent, but I do not recommend that avenue for anyone else. I am doing it because I have funds I need to invest and can do most of the renovations myself. I do not believe the stock market to be a good investment for at least a few years until our economic crisis is resolved. I believe more companies will fail and the current administration will throw even more money at the problem rather than solving it.
1. WE WERE “WARNED” 3 YEARS AGO, of this very dangerous market. My wife and I sold almost all of our modest investments and ……..THE MARKET ROSE AND ROSE..so we were taken in and repurchased BOTH STOCK & MUTUAL FUNDS! OUR TOTAL LOSSES ABOUT 35%
2 The war in Iraq was one of the key elements in our economic collapse, combined with the total failure of any important government or elected representative or agency to warm the nation that we totally over-extended in government spending, weapons purchases and bloated housing prices.
Martin,
Your detailed reports on the condition of the American economy and bank ratings has
been invaluable, due to your help we have avoided Australian investment losses as our
economy closely follows America.
Kind Regards,
John Callaghan
Hi Martin:
Reading all the hopeful economic news in the media and quotes from Ben Bernanke as to ” it`s nearly over ” type remarks, I`m reminded of a speech by one of the fed chairmen in which he stated ” the last thing a central banker is obligated to do is to tell the public the truth”.
Keep up the good work.
Yes I need to know about Vanguard’s GNNA.
Please, tell me what to do about EE Bonds bought in September 1992. Are they considered cash?
Martin,
I follow your Safe Money report and most of my inverse ETFs are in negative territory. Your blog asks, “Or should you be loading up on inverse investments at bargain prices …” I took a look at the inverse ETFs and found the one that lost the most money, and bought some more. . . Perhaps I’ll look into what Vincent did and get some FAZ also. Oh, and ‘The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” is definitely a keeper!
i am not investor, but hvac contractor watching people who had money and were willing to spend are no longer able to spend. they do not have money to even pay for repairs of their a/c unit. my wife has invested in 401k and watched that loose 25% it has regained and we have sold out at your advice and will use to pay down our home morgtage to near nothing. i see things as near the end of times as we know, with the one world movement taking over, so get ready for that, store food and grow what you can. here in fla. we can have garden, fish, cows,pigs, goats so i have 3 acres and do what i can, as told create cities of refuge, we help people who are down, and we used to live near you off donald ross road for 9 years be moving to ne central fla. enjoy your book reading that now, G-D bless king
Martin,
I have found assurance from reading your book that I am not alone. The media hype and politically twisted views on the salvage of America’s financial crisis through throwing
billions of unearned money at the squeeky wheels is in no way mending what will take years to fix. As a prior Honda employee (I left to stay home with my new born)I see so many rash and unequeal “bale outs” that add to the total destruction….not remedy it. My situation is perhaps more dire as I cannot find employment and I am on the verge of foreclosure. I appreciate that there are logical voices such as yours that speak on the behalf of millions of Americans who question the current approches to solve a multitude of issues that ultimately has global ramifications by our “leaders.”
The bank stress test is a ‘ so called ” all clear signal to buy bank stock equities on the assumption that the global and US economy will do better and the banks will thus be able to issue more loans in an expanding economy.
However, I do not buy the green shoots idea because of rising unemployment in the nation; I based on US industry greed for profits at the expense of its workers. Some media technical analyst experts say the stock market can rise another 10% before the eye of the storm passes in this hurricane of a bear market rally. ETF’s are dangerous unless you buy them at the right moment. If the chart from the great depresssion replicates in 2009, then going short with inverse ETF’s is a good idea at some point. Yet, just as the dollar has strengthened as the US budget deficits have increased, perhaps there is some reason out there for the US stock market to rise in the face of rising unemployment.
The financial picture is not rosy at the moment and the only way out is to let it find its own course.The manufacturing sector should be cleaning house and then maybe receive some government assistance to stave off massive job losses all at once but over the long term realize that a new direction is needed.There will be no investor confidence until there is a clearly defined plan through solid management and leadership.No one is going to invest when industries are hanging on a day at a time.It seems as if this scenario was planned to cripple the American economic engine and unfourtunately there is huge vacancy in the White House that appears to be part of the plan,not the solution.
Martin, I believe that the ‘prudent’ investor should dumpall stocks and convert to gold and silver, preferably Gold. I also believe that things will get real ugly before we hit the real bottom. I have bought your latest book and am strongly recommending it to everyone I know. To me it is like a roadmap through the carnage that is coming. Keep up the good work. Thanks, Roy
i believe this is a bear market rally and more should be expected, there is alot of wealth out there looking for a place to land. with 3.8T in losses worldwide it is hard to believe the markets can sustain this rally. too many losses have not been taken yet by the banks, insurance companies, derivative players. even state and local gov’ts got into derivatives and did interest rate swaps, i read on city traded their fixed rate for an adjustable rate and now have big losses. this is not an isolated incident. then commercial real estate is ust starting its problems and we still have the second wave of option arms coming. bottom line is most banks are insolvent and only go’vt borrowing is saving them. then will the dollar stay strong and will foreigners continue to buy our debt. we all know we will never be able to pay it all back, someday the game will be up! The Fed and gov’t are printing like crazy so they might be able to prop up the economy here and there but the trend will continue until all the bad bets are washed away! I hope for a country that will learn from this experience and will go back to prudent borrowing and lending. it can make america a stronger country! My fear is nothing will be learned and we will replace the housing bubble with some new bubble.
Mr. Weiss, I believe first of all the Federal Reserve Bank should be destroyed immediately. The almighty dollar within the next two or three years will be worthless. This country should immediately get back on the GOLD or Silver system. I would stop chasing stocks that have alreadymoved higher. Inverse investments at a bargan price would be the way that I would go and wait for the nest explosion. I believe that your investment stratagies are very sound and should be the way for us to study. God bless!
Today, yes just this morning, i bought my first house for cash, no loan and priced at 1995 levels. in phoenix this house is down about 65% from the peak. it was over 200k, i bought for 82k! plus, i get the 8k tax credit so that gives me some downside and i am cutting my bills in 1/2. so, i think for some this is a great time to buy a house. for me it is to live in and not to speculate. anyhow, when i went to chase to get the cashiers check…don’t worry i already have been moving other funds to a strong bank like you said..the lady asked if i wanted a home equity line. i laughed and said i will never borrow against this house..ever..and said isn’t that why we are in this mess? anyhow, the house is in a good area and is not a fixer upper so i feel i’m pretty lucky.
Dr. Weiss
What about farmland investments?
Food & water critical; world wide drought & shortage of food.
This type of realestate has not deflated to any major extent, perhaps 5-10% at most only in the last 6 months…. until then there was NO meltdown…. & continued to climb in value 5-20%/year up till Oct-Nov “08″ unlike ALL other real estate prices.
I have read that the only things/investments that have survived & maintained value or inflated in value in past depressions/deflations….. are
1. Gold/Silver… usable commodities
2. Food-water-Farmland
3. High technology or most current versions of manufacturing equipment
The movements in the markets now just cry out to me as recklessness. People playing the casino and hoping for good luck in spite of all the real economic trends. We are seeing no uptick in business from over 40 + stores in Florida we supply. In the past, this has always been an accurate measure of what the future holds for the country as a whole. Kind of like the proverbial canary in the coal mine. If people can’t or won’t spend in Florida for their families (just look at Disney’s dramatic downturn) they are in real stress.
For almost guaranteed profits with little or no risk, buy-write high-yielding sound companies with long-term deep-in-the-money calls. If the stocks go up you will make a small capital gain when they are called plus the dividends for as long as you own the stocks. If they plummet, they can drop from 30-50% before you start to lose money.
RS
I need income from my investments, NOW! So, I’ve created a fully leveraged portfolio of high yield stocks that is 33% hedged with inverse 2X ETF’s (SDS, MZZ) and just today I added the financial bear inverse 3X ETF, FAZ. FAZ was so cheap to buy that I was able to afford plenty of shares so that even if the financial’s continue to climb, money would still be made on the long side. This strategy has gained the portfolio, new buying power very frequently that is used to rebalance the portfolio. The growth so far has been 218% since the rally began and that includes today, a down day for the markets, during which the portfolio made 1.9%.
I hope that people find this interesting. And I welcome both positive and negative responces!
Mike
One subject I don’t hear you talk much about is the Federal Reserve. Let’s face it. That is where the power is. That is where the problems are. The Fed who is making the decisions. Mr. Obama is doing what he is advised by the Bankers. The most powerful person is Ben Bernacke. This is why I am too damn scared to do anything with the little money my husband and I have. Economics and investing are different “animals.” I’m learning that economics is far more important to understand because it is directing the other. I would like to see everyone in this country get behind Congressman Ron Paul and the other 134 (last count I checked) congressional folks to support an audit of the Federal Reserve. This should be done as soon as possible and quickly. The Fed are the ones giving away our money. I won’t be fooled into believing anything they say in the news and TV. They are influenced by the Fed as well. I think there is NOTHING more important than to educate the American people on the Federal Reserve (and all central bankers) and how we have been robbed for the last 95 years by them. If they have nothing to hide, they should not worry about an audit of the PEOPLES MONEY. If they have nothing to hide, they should welcome the idea of the American people learning what they have done with the country’s gold and money. Support HR 1207 and demand your congressperson support the AUDIT.
Thank you for being a voice of sanity. Talk more about the monetary policy of the govt. Then the people will better understand what they are up against. Blessings to you and your family for speaking out. Cathy
Hello Martin I have lost a lot of money in the market.I have
advisor with an investment co.He keeps telling me to hang in there and this is the bottom ……. ect. I am disabled and trying to live on my Social security,565.Dollars a month.I bearly am surviving.I have Mutual funds .When I went in to the market I had about 40,000 dollars I know that isn’t a lot but I needed to help make my life a little easier.T he worth of my portfolio is now down to 28,000 dollars and I don’t know what to do ? or who to go to for honest advice. I really need the help of some one who is honest.You are about the most honest person I have found since I have been in the market.One advisor told me I didn’t belong in the market and to get out now and cut my losses.I do believe that this thing is not over. I need help really badly and folks say you are the man to ask. I can’t even afford to buy your book.Please tell me all you can.Any help would be gratfully appericated. Sandy
I want you to know that I follow all of your messages and learned a lot from you and your friends on what to know and what to do.Thanks for all .I should get some money very soon and I know where to go for advise : Martin Weiss and Co.
I will ask to meet with you because the money doesn’t belong to me and I should be very careful.JJR
This is not the time to stay in the market and/or re-invest money’s back in. The market has risen and those in it, who have any wisdom, need to sell now and not hold on. The manipulations behind the scenes are extremely complex, but that is why gold has not risen properly and stocks are rising. The fundamentals that caused other bull markets to begin are not there, it is all just a false picture, nothing more. In college I majored in both finance and economics, back from 1969 to 1973, I know that none of the information; i.e. inflation, unemployment, CPI, etc. that is put out by our government/FED or on the news is correct. Example; in Flagstaff Arizona, they will layoff 332 teachers in May, for K thru 12 grades, now multiply that out across the nation, based on budget issues and tell me how unemployment will grow? The stock market, bonds and long term T-Bills, you need to stay away from. I could go into more detail, but it would be way too much to write.
Good luck everyone!
Bob
I trade the markets using technical analysis, but when I hold it overnight I check the fundamentals. Both of these actions are based on faith. Neither one of these historical records takes into account the current environment unless that is based on faith also. My conclusion after having been in the markets since 1976 is that whatever belief system the majority is using is the way the markets will go! The only variable that never changes in the markets is people and evolution takes a VERY long time. I believe the glass is half full now. What occured in 29 -32 may look similar on a chart but we didn’t even have a term for financial engineering then. Now you can graduate with a major in it. We went into extreme debt in the 30’s, but the war increased it even more. All of it was government spending. We were broke, but we recovered. I have faith that if we have the “political will” (Bernanke) we can do it again. I declared a tech bubble in 1995 and a housing bubble in 2000 so I am often very early. I try to learn as much as I can about what may occur in the economy and often find most other’s timing is a bit off too. I enjoy everyone’s opinions and I do believe they can formulate reality.
Also, I think it is clear that fear and greed work better when regulation works also. We can’t handle the truth, we need regulation! My thoughts on why the charts look similar is that we tried to recreate it by repealing 30’s regulations that were in place for 70+ years to prevent a crash like that happening again.
G! Day Martin.
Thank you for your down to earth visions, I’m not doing a thing until you let us know when the bottom is truely in sight.
This is a message to Richard Hayes. Richard, if you and your wife are both over the age of 70 then in my opinion, you shouldn’t be in the stock market or mutual funds at all. Now is the time to be conservative. If you’ve made any gains in the past few months I’d be selling and putting it into something secure and guaranteed. That’s just my 2 cents worth.
Jacquie
Please comment on the obscure Kondratieff cycle and how it may apply today. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY COMMENTS ON THIS. Thanks!
You are to kind. When I was a kid that is all my Dad did was preach about the stock market of the 30’s. When he was a kid his Dad had a big farm with all the modern machinery when the crash came. My Dad’s Dad took everything they could and told my uncle to sell everything and send him the money he got from the auction. Then he tried to make it on two more farms and lost them. So all I have heard since I was a kid was about the 30’s. My Dad told me one thing. If you want to succeed in anything pick someone that you feel knows his business follow what he says and does. So I picked you and I am sure you are the man. I am just a small lower middle class person with no debts and saved a little money and I lost some in the stock market. I have reinvested when it hit the first bottom. I have made a couple of dollars and I have listened to you and I am now getting out while I am still on top. I hope I have not waited to long. Thank
You again for your kind words. I am following your lead and I have a lot to learn. Milbert Oster
Im a recent subscriber to your site .
The thing i have learnt is that when your jumping up and down and punching the air
THAT’S A SIGNAL TO SELL
Thanks for your input
thanks to all of you for your comments and thoughts. ben bernake said we will continue to see huge job losses and he was not sure how long before these losses would begin to reverse. i also read that bank of america would need another 35 billion as its” losses continue. job losses translate into more forclosures and longer soup lines. higher unemployment makes for more crime and desperate people trying to provide for loved ones. the stock market seems to be the only positive sign. i became and unemployed statistic last friday. chrysler went bankrupt. we were told we would be called back in a month or two. nothing in writing,and no guarantees. this is not looking good people! im in good shape because i believed martins” warnings last fall. i still have lost 50% of two mutual funds that i still have not sold, hoping this thing might turn around. i hate to sell at a loss. but dont have anything but an all pervasive sense of impending doom. i hope in jesus and trust only him. god bless all of us, amen
Say,
I’m in the middle of nowhere in ND. Can anyone recommend a solvent and good on-line broker? Thanks in advance.
Besides Martin’s very good advice, I always appreciate the “God Bless’, puts me in mind of Red Skelton, who was also a good man.
I also am grieved for the loss of Moral Leaders! Life for Americans will be forever changed.
JP
Dear Dr Weiss,
I was born in 1930.Obviously I do not recall any of the depression before about the mid 1930s.
But what I do remember is my parents discussing the hard times people were having
finding jobs and that money was scarce.
We had many people come to our door asking
for food to help them continue on their journey.Mother fed them and they offered their heartfelt thanks as they left for their destination.
Daddy worked for the state highway department for a salary of $ 75.00-$90.00 a month.We also raised a big vegetable garden and chickens.
Dad retired after 42 years with the state in various capacities.He never had money to invest
and would not take any risk if he had the money.
He and Mother put their savings in CDs and lived on Social Security:home paid for and no debt.My parents taught me the value of money and the simple life style.Not extravagent but within my means.
I provide this info only to contrast my wife and my retirement and investment experience.We both retired with 401Ks properly diversified
in conservative mutual funds and SS income.
Now with our 401Ks=201Ks and unstable,I am studying the market more carefully and not relying on our broker to point the way.
I appreciate your insight and foresight into the
current monetary mess and value your advice.
I admit I get other financial newsletters,trying to
read all sides in order to make the best decisions for my family.It ain’t easy.
God Bless ,John
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrials, my technical indicators suggest the Industrials are facing resistance at around 8636 from a (bearish) long-term trading channel trendline. I’m poised to buy a 3X inverse ETF like BGZ with confirmation of a reversal; however I am prepared to be proved wrong and will buy the 3X bullish ETF (BGU) if the DOW close breaks above the present resistance. While I believe a reversal is likely, I try not to “own” an opinion, but try to decipher the psychology of the market by examining candlestick signals and other technical indicators.
As to the apostle Paul’s comment at 1 Thessalonians 5:3 “Whenever it is that they are saying
peace and security, then sudden destruction is to be instantly upon them…”, he was not referring to the stock market or even the world economy particularly. However, it is a warning not to make a god out of money (the most important thing in one’s life), nor to trust in politicians, governments or other man-made institutions. Same for Progressivism, Capitalism, Socialism or any other -ism.
If you make your living or build your retirement accounts by investing or trading in the stock or commodity markets, do so honorably and with integrity. Identify your core values and principles and stick to them; practice them in small ways in everyday life, for assuredly the day will come when they will be tested in BIG ways. Take the time to show your spouse and children, your friends and neighbors and yes, complete strangers, that you are a caring, giving, loving person. Each day do something to make the world around you a better place. Consider what makes something evil and what makes something good. If the distinction seems blurred, ponder all the more. The day will come when you will be pressured to go along with the majority to embrace an evil end–and for all the most altruistic reasons. If you can overcome these threats & trials, then the rest of 1 Thessalonians chapter 5 applies to you; you have a very bright future ahead of you!
JJ
Thanks for all the great information and the educational process. I have read your book and I’m still not clear about how to find investment groups that follow the strategies in the book that I can trust to invest for me. There is a lot to learn and I am pressed for time and really not able to dig deeply and make investments on my own. Will you provide a list of firms I can choose from with contact info or tell me where I can find that information in your book?
God bless you and I’m praying for you!
You provide a valuable insight into the financial affairs that exist. I believe what happens next is in the hands of the major lenders to the USA. China has signaled that they will be adding to their gold reserves at the expense of the US dollar. This to me strongly suggests that the US dollar as the hard currency in the world will now be more broadly questioned. Are we heading toward another gold standard?
I am an engineer tool maker I have A device that will turn H2o into HHO WILL THIS ‘DO’ THE OIL – market and save the plannet grenen wise? —the choice is yours!!! —— back me and produce…
Martin ( & Co ),
Having read and followed your advice for the last 9 years IS the reason that I have 24 years of soberity.
If I had held on to the ranch in Napa ( sold in Dec 2005) and held my stocks ( sold in 2006 ) I would be typing this letter from the public library and would be living under a bridge. Wether or not I would be drunk….who knows but tis much easier to ” not medicate ” when life is manageable.
You have given to me ( and anyone who would listen ) the kind of warning that got a few lucky Jews out of Germany before 1936.
I also scaled my elevator business down and circled the family wagons. They ( the family ) think I am so smart but, I give the credit to you.
I am lucky….I found you back when I still had something to save. Angels do walk the earth.
Yes , I have your new book and I am half way through it. I also signed your petition and I have a tea bag hanging from the rear view mirror of all my trucks.
Best to you from Galt’s Gultch. Jerry
IF YOU BUY INVERSE SHORTS AND THE RALLY CONTINUES FOR SOME
PERIOD OF TIME THEN YOU’RE LOSING MONEY WITH THE PURCHASES.AREN’T
YOU? 2X AND 3X MAKE IT EVEN WORSE.
Judging by by both the SCALE and the MAGNITUDE of this current stock market upswing, you can see for yourself that any and all downward pressure on stocks is now GONE. If you wait any longer, you will be left in the dust!!!!!!! This is one of the LARGEST, most FULL-SCALE stock upswings in history, and if you miss it, you will be left behind in the dust!!!!!! (And left regretting it!!!!!!)
Martin,
I was hopeing you could give us some information as to what is happening in the million dollar portfolio. I missed the deadline. It semeed to go live just before this recently rally and I thought that the portfilio was going to invest in stockts that would profit as the rest of the world went to hell in a hand basket.
Do you care to shre any information with us as to it s performance?
Thank you
Michael
Dear Dr. Weiss,
I say if you have the money, buy the blue chip stock at a reasonable cost. But first learn about the company, how management treats people, learn to read between the lines of their annual reports because they can often be deceptive. Look at the company’s pattern, see what they are doing now, are they innovative? Creative? Also see where they are doing business. I still believe unstable countries run a big risk. If you are feeling good about the organization, I say go ahead buy!! Same for cheaper stocks. And don’t ignore those IPO’s, especially now. They can be attractive.
For me personally, I stay on the conservative side, spend my money wisely. I rather have a million dollars in cash then paper.
Hope this helps. MA
I am sure you have heard this many times, but thank you for your common sense and voice of reason. I am not a whiz at financial planning, but I know what sounds reasonable and what doesn’t, and throwing money down a black hole with no bottom does not sound sensible. Also thank you for your information about banks and insurance. I am taking the necessary steps to make sure our money is in the safest possible place–at least as far as possible.
My inverse ETF’s have taken an awful hammering in this recent rally – before I put any more money at risk I need to see some return to normality (whatever that is?) Clearly the markets are clearly being manipulated by big investors coming in on thin trading to push up stocks – probably the Banks using tax-payer’s TARP funds!
Dr. Wiess, Thank you for a forum to colaborate, vent, cry, understand, receive and be educated with wise counsel. I’m only one guy! I don’t have a research team, but I, like you, have been warning family and friends for more than ten years. As a student of history and praxiology, it seemed natural to follow finance. As a habit for many years I’ve have scanned up to 300 articles at a sittting. I saw so many going the wrong way with their investments and money habits, I started a class among friends in Sept. 08 that has grown to a modest 40 participants. One of my very first reconmendations was to have everyone subscribe to your financial information services. At your recomendation, using inverse ETF’s the group realized a better than 50% return from the get go. In Jan. 09, we took a historic perspective to prophetically speculate that Ford would come out of the ashes; we were in at $1.63. Currently we are looking for a pullback in equities of 10 to 15%, followed with a continued rally on the upside in the Dow at 9500 to 9900 taking up to Sept. 09 to get there. Then of course, with unemployment at 14% by then and commercial loan defaults at high rates and gov. allowing insurance co. to bankrupt, we could see equities at 5500 on the Dow. As a group due to your committment to help we started investing in the forex platform following Jack Crooks recomendations. We are doing well. I’m seeing lives changed all around us! There is confidence and hope in their eyes again. We’re even developing a fund to educate and fund others into an investing lifestyle. Thanks so much!
Dear Martin,
The destruction of the global economy has been planned for a very long time. Those in control, who claim they are upset over these events, are nothing more than liars and phonies.
God will bless your efforts, as one who tried even in the midst of the planned failure.
God bless and many graces,
Susan
DEAR MARTIN
RIGHT TO THE HART OF IT. AS A NATION WE HAVE TURNED OUR BACK ON GOD. SINCERELY BOB SCOTT
Thank you for all your insights. I agree with you this is probably a dead-cat’s bounce. But how long? You did warn about the market’s fall back in 2002 and its dead-cat’s bounce, but that turned out to be an almighty bounce that caused the Dow to DOUBLE in value from the bottom around low 7000’s in 2002 to above 14000 in 2007, lasting for 5 YEARS before the market plunged again. Bulls multiplied their profits and bears were in for a long, long wait to see the market decline again after that 2002 dead-cat’s bounce. It was a huge opportunity loss for bears. And likewise, if we bought at the market bottom in early March, 2009, we could have tripled, quadripled, or even more, our investment if we went out to buy stocks like AIG, BAC, C, in just a little over 1 month. And I am sore afraid that this bear market rally has more legs to run and send these crap stocks to 10-baggers, 20-baggers, even 50-baggers status at our loss, before they ultimately face day of reckoning. As Benjamin Graham said, there is nothing stopping overpriced stocks from becoming even more overpriced. This is the essence of irrational exuberance. If this bear market rally turned out to be like the one in 2002, bears could be locking themselves into years of opportunity loss by staying out of the market now, or even actual loss by shorting stocks or buying inverse ETFs.
I am excited about making a lot of money with inverse ETFs in this next market drop. However, this is a much more dangerous bear than people anticipate. It is like surfing a tidal wave! The big question we have to ask ourselves is will we be able to collect our profits in such a chaotic environment. This bear is much more dangerous than anything we have seen in the history of the US and may not be that easy to tame. Also, beware that short-term treasuries have been safe throughout the history of the US and even during the Civil War. However, what we are facing is on a much larger scale than that. The big question that I feel has not been sufficiently addressed by Dr. Weiss, is how do we protect our assets if he has underestimated the magnitude of this Big Bear. Forget about gold. Bill
There is no question that the economy still has a way to go. However I must take issue with your constant negativity. Isnt it possible that some of the Obama administration policies are starting to work. Isnt it possible that the Presidents experts such as Summers, Geithner, Bernanke and many others are smarter than your experts. It is my opinion that the economy will turn around by late Fall 09 and that we will see moderate growth in ‘10 and strong growth in ‘11.
I live in Louisville, Ky and the unemployment rate is at 10% due Ford Motor Co. cut backs in production and some chemical plants cutting back.
The housing market has not suffered as much here as other Cities.
I find your emails interesting in that I don’t get caught in the financial hype of Washington.
Chuck
I agree with you Maritn, that the storm is far from over. This is the upwards cycle of the market comming in for another down turn. This are not the investors flocking into the market but the profit takers. If one is comming in for quick gains it might be to risky .. for long term investments it is better to wait for the down-turn and we look onto Martin’s expert views when the recession will be really over. Thanks for your support and guidance.
Leveraged Funds
I have posted one note on this issue already with technical facts and figures showing how dangerous leveraged ETF’s can be in a bear market rally. Please be careful as all bear market rallies are meant to seduce everyone into believing “everything is fine”. Bear market rallies are the same as bubbles–the madness of crowds can take things much higher than you think. So for those of you going short in the near term (an hour or two) that is no problem with leveraged funds. For those of you putting your hard earned money to work, know that after a 15 month decline, 2 months does not a bear market rally make. Give it time before putting on any inverse leveraged ETF investments. By the way, I have had my IRA at Profunds since 1998 and done very well with leveraged funds…in fact I am up 400% since then. But please just understand this simple math. If a 2X fund priced at $100 goes down 20%, then it is at $80. If it goes up 20% from $80% it only gets back to up to $96. When something goes down 80%, from $100 to $20 (like the SKF only using different numbers but $303 to $40 which is EVEN WORSE) do the math. To get back to $100 would take a 500% decline to get back to your $100. Be safe, don’t try to call the top. Let the market tell you…in big huge collapses. We have a ways to go and the Larry Kudlows and Jim Cramers of the world would love you to believe in this rally. Of course it is not true…but there are signs you can find–put-call ratios get very low (that means everyone is buying calls instead of puts meaning they think the market will go higher), bullish v bearish sentiment get very high–all time high in October 2007 was about 87%, and Fibanacci retracements do for some miraculous reason really hold true. To do the minimum from the all time high in the Dow and S&P would put us near 10000 on the day and 1000-1010 on the S&P. There are numerous sources (for a fee) that have great track records with this bear. Elliottwave.com, insiidetrack.com, stockmarketcycles.com, to name a few. Prechter, Eric Hadik, and Peter Eliades are all exceptional resources. No one is perfect but they are there for you if you need a helping hand and decide that the leveraged indexes are for you. I can tell you this much…if the FAZ gets to $1, I am just going to buy it. It is cheaper than any option and it is the triple leverage financial ETF. Currently at $5 , with a bottom this morning at $4.61, it can go lower. But it is the same as buying at option if it gets that low. Just an aside, watch Goldman and JPM for your insight into the market. As long as they go up, making higher highs, and lower lows, this party is not over. Even with a short term correction, don’t get levered unless you understand the risk.
You are absolutely right Martin. But our memory is short and reasoning defective.
I admired your references to your father who was without doubt an outstanding marketer, albeit in hard times of the First Depression, but also an extraordinary teacher who left such a deep imprint in your mind and reasoning.
To you, Martin, I take my hat off my head for the courage to put things in proper perspective with honesty and determination to enlighten the World of the true reasons
of the trouble we all find ourselves today in. Those in Washington and Wall Street and above all our “independent and free media” should be ashamed for a joint criminal enterprise in lies and deception of millions of hard-working people not only in America but in the whole world. Are they ever going to pay for their crime for ruining hundreds of millions of trusting, innocent people around the globe?
The bond market today indicated interest rates are going higher (meaning face value is dropping. The trick will be trying to determine the market top for bonds (per interest rates) and the market bottom (per prices). A quick inspection of your graph indicates the first dead cat bounce in 1929 made a 50% recovery. Based on that we have a ways to go right now, so jumping in the maket right now should only be done with caution and an eye on that 50% retracement or just short of that retrecement. All other dead cat bounces look like they go roughly 38% of the previous market high. If history repeats itself we can use this to guide us into and out of the market for the short term for the coming three years. Just for reinforcment, these levels seem to be fibonacci levels, a pictorial representation of human psychology and therefore should be respected.
martin, I wish you are wrong , but i am afraid you are not. The energy that surrounds our environment is quite sick, and it is felt worlwide. Many things will need to change so our children and theirs , will live in world more conscious, and better of. That is where we all want to focus our efforts on. I am not a moralist but somebody has to pay for their excessive greed . and it should not be the avarage person . The conspiracy between government and the financial sector , towards gaining time , in the process of fixing their carelesness , has been very painful and grossly manipulated. The colided front , can not be trusted .
Keep up the good work please for all of us who have lost their jobs, their homes , their savings and their hopes for a better future.
I was very surprised to read in your book that florida land prices were the first real estate prices in the country to take a dive during the depression. I’ve spent the last six months in Florida and I can tell you there are some who believe the real estate bottom is already in. Some builders are pushing landlocked condo’s for $350,000 and more to come at $500,000. Simply crazy. I’m thinking a lot of people have forgotten our new President called for a forclosure moratorium when he took office. Three months to the day a sign went up on a neighbor’s property in Florida that said “Foreclosure”. That $350,000 home was going for $59,000. I won’t have cash for about another month so I bit my tongue and offered nothing. I was also around to many other places and some people think they can still get $350,000 for “outdated” interiors etc, etc, etc, simply becausethey haven’t adjusted their expectations to the “new market”. I believe the realtors when they say the forclosures are drying up but when the full force of the moritorium hits, we are going to see a sudden increase in forclosures on the market. Interestingly enough proponents point out that Ft. Myers and the vicinity got attention right after the President made his first trip to that area. I find it hard to believe that current economic conditions can cause the demand to continue to rise in spit of the baby boomers getting ready to retire … remember the boomers have typically lost over 50% of their portfolio unless they have been very vigilaent … Those that have been vigalent, I believe number around 10% of the boomer population. This is all supposition but as close to the truth that I care to believe.
I AM ENJOYING THE BOUNCE AND ACCUMULATING SOME NICE LEAPS CONTRACTS. BUYING S&P 500 AT 400, DEC 09,10 And 11.
MARTIN,
AS EVERYTHING IN LIFE….IT’S ALL ABOUT TIMMING. WHEN TO GET IN….WHEN TO GET OUT. THE MARKET IS NOW AT 8300. IT WILL BE AT 3000 WITH IN A YEAR. IM IN MOST CASH. I SOLD EVERYTHING.REAL ESTATE.STOCKS.IM IN 20% GOLD.20% DOWN SIZED TO MODEST PRIMARY HOME.50% CASH. ANYONE THATS IN STOCKS MAY MAKE 20% IN SHORT RUN BUT WILL RISK LOOSING IT ALL. AN EVENT IN THE MARKETS OVER SEAS WILL BE THE SINGLE THING TO TAKE OUR MARKETS DOWN. NOT TO MENTION A TERRORIST EVENT IN THE USA.OUR WORLD MARKETS ARE ALL ATTACHED. WE ARE ALL WALKING ON THIN ICE.
REAL ESTATE WILL FALL BACK TO 1990′S PRICE WITH IN 3 YEARS.IT’S A SLOW AND STEADY FALL. MOST SELLERS WILL BE GROUND DOWN BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL IN DENIAL. THEY ALL TELL ME AND BELEIVE THE MARKET WILL COME BACK. IT’S CRAZY.RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MUST BE IN LINE AND COMENSURATE WITH PEOPLES INCOMES. 90% OF DEMAND IS GONE. YOU ACTUALLY MUST QUALIFY TODAY FOR A MORTGAGE.ALL THE PAST DEMAND WAS BASED ON FRAUDULENT LOANS IN PEOPLES HAND THAT NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN GIVEN SUCH CREDIT. THEY ARE ALL GONE NOW. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTEREST RATES GOT TO 10% OR 15% THATS ALMOST A GAURANTEE. WHERE WILL REAL ESTATE BE THAN? I THINK IT’S AN EASY GUESS.YOUR BOOK IS GREAT.MOST AMERICANS LOST 50% OF THEIR NET WORTH. THEY SCARED AND UNSURE. GOD BLESS THE USA.
Sir,
If I were in the market at this time I would consider the following: The U.S. Mint stopped making both gold and silver egales this year, why? The commerical real estate market has yet to reset its mortgages and report out. China is purported to be increasing its holdings in gold. silver is way out of wack in its historical relationship to gold. The IMF is getting permission to sell off a substansial amount of its gold holdings. Government budgets at all levels of government are not trying to cut back on any programs.
With all that said, I would short the market on eveything except metals and hang on expecting the other shoe to hit this fall.
Resp,
R Smith
Third to the last sentence should have read higher highs and higher lows…just wanted to clarify that.
I do not believe The White House and democrats know what they are doing, prompting up the stock market is more of the same old bailout business in Obama White House. It’s like another photo opt with Air force 1 smoke and mirrors at best at the tax payer expense. No jobs, no pay people can not make car, house, utility bill, pay taxes the lists goes on and on pay no bills is not the America way. We will be out of this depression when people are working and not before. We can not borrow and spend your way out of debt. This is a dangerous game the democrats are playing. China has their eye on us and they want to be the super power and they will be owning America lock stock and barrel. What fools we have in Washington. This is why we are in this mess and they want to create more. Where did those fools come from?
hi Martin,
The chart you reference is the same as one i’ve been looking at to explain things to my friends. Believe it or not, I just today sent emails to my friends basically giving them my ideas of where the market is going for the next 2-5 years. I’m kinda sick right now so I havn’t had the brain power to actually put my thoughts into formula yet but the gist of it is basically:
6500 up to 9000
9000 dn to 7000
7000 up to 11000
11000 dn to 6700
6700 up to 8000
8000 dn to 4000
Final bottom could be somewhere between 2500 and 3500 in 2-5 yrs.
If it turns at about 9000 or wherever it does. At that point we will have a better data and can get a little closer.
I’m not posting this as gospel people. It is just my best guess at this point. I’m more of a forex chartist than anything so don’t base any trades off this stuff.
Remember you have to trade the market your given. So try to read between the lines until you see the whites of their eyes. My ideas are simply based on a superimposition of the last big one at this point. I should say cautiously trade the market they are creating with voo doo and be ready to pull the trigger soon with some inverse etf’s.
Remember I’m sick so cut me some slack if i’m not making any sense.. lol
Best Wishes,
Jeff
Its perfectly clear that the banks using tax-payers TARP funds are buying up huge volumes of S & P futures contracts in order to stop the plunge – illegal, immoral, & very very dangerous!
I am almost 65 and do not recall a time in my lifetime when there was such a severe disconnect
between the stock market and the real economy as we’ve had the past 45 days or so. All the
important numbers–investment, goods orders, incomes, employment and earnings–are atrocious,
but the media (except you) keep spinning that these lousy numbers are better than expected. So
I’m thinking we’re in another dead cat bounce. When a few more large retail chains, shopping malls
and banks go under, combined with collateral damage from GM/Chrysler, I believe we’ll see a second
round of enormous layoffs and a significant market contraction. Wish it weren’t so, but that’s my best guess.
Martin, Have followed you now for two years. I have no doubt you will be proven right ultimately, but as one wise sage once said, the market will confound you and ultimately outlast your ability to stay solvent. I’m trying to stay solvent until the correction down happens. I hope I have some funds left for PUT buying, when the market eventually pulls back. Now that the stress tests are revealed and the baloney they are selling is clear for all to see, I hope retracement starts tomorrow. I could use some good luck. I would work for a living, but jobs have disappeared and trading options is my last alternative to making money. I’m 61 and recently lost my life savings to Bernard Madoff. Any advice? DAVE
I thank you for having been right on the big picture even if not always on the timing. Also for honoring your father and continuing your efforts to defend the dollar by advocating steps to be fair to both investors and responsible consumers. Unfortunately the Administration in power as well as the previous one continue to abuse savers and true investors while rewarding the most irresponsible lenders, borrowers and speculators. It is the Weimar Republic all over again. In addition our bankrupt country continues to fight unnecessary wars without paying for them with current taxes.
I hope you will be successful in your efforts to stop the insanity.
I am a Ford retiree and as you can imagine I am in a scary position pension wise.At present the stock is bouncing back up, many of my friends are, and have been buying this stock . Should I sit tight and wait ? as the 29 graph indicates that this is just an up bounce on the way to lower prices. Or, should I shun it for serious investment and just play a bit of “mad money” on it?
All comments are welcome.
I want to clarify one more thing…I think this bear market will be worse that the Great Depression. Most people can’t stand to hear what I say. Ms. Doomsday they call me. At the same time, after years of my talk, they are asking for my advice. The advice I give on this site is to protect fellow Martin supporters regarding leveraged funds. I also seek to help you understand that a bear market rally can go much further than you expect. I am a permabear until we reach at least 4500 on the Dow (and in reality I think it will go lower) and have been since 2000. Funny thing is that I make trading profits on extremes–and did not even participate in the 2002-2007 Dow rally but still am up 400% since 1998 because of market timing. I am only talking on this site because I saw a fellow subscriber still owning the SKF from a price of $95. I seek to help anyone in this position and inform all about leverage. Since after all, the only reason this financial world will collapse is from leverage. Best wishes to all. I am there for any advice if you want it. lindabecker19@gmail.com. Feel free to ask me any questions you have.
Mr. Weiss,
In your on-line video, I know you suggested selling all stocks into the rally. I own two stocks BHP Biliton and Seabridge Gold. I would like confirmation the you feel selling these as well during the rally. My understanding is natural resources and gold were good investments. Should I sell in the rally or hold? A reply e-mail would be appreciated. I would also like more information on inverse investments.
Thanking you in advance.
Greg
Thanks. What should we be buying tp protect are selfs when other countrys stop taking are doller for payments . Will we have to exchange are doller for other curencys ?
How helpless one can feel knowing that our political representitives, our leaders both in in government and in business, all are ignoring our nationhood, our society, that which made this nation the wonder of the world. Whether it is the waging of foreign wars, impotence before marauding pirates, finacial institutions playing with derivatives based on lending to borrowers who have no basis for borrowing except political ideology. Observing the whole of it one weeps for his country. Dr. Martin Weiss thank you for showing us “charts” that show what to do and where to go to obtain some surcease form the storm raging around all of us. I ask this question: Is there a nation today that is financially stable enough for one to convert American dollar assets into that nation’s currency?
DR. Weiss I purchased your book and got so involved in it, as though I were reading a novel, stayed up too late as I had to work next day! Everyone on this blog seems to have experience but me. I’m in my mid 60’s have never in my life invested in anything but my family, friends and jobs. I’m so touched deep in my spirit by what God is doing thru’ you for all those “with ears to hear”, and apply the wisdom God has so richly given you and your DAD. Now I don’t even know the termanolgy that’s being used. So no smart remarks from other readers PLEASE. I only have my social security check and a little I work for, so here is an uninformed question; could I put 100.00 in something somewhere, sometime that would give me back something?
You re so much appreciated and I’ve let everyone I know about you and your willingness to help people like me. God Bless you with even more wisdom at just the RIGHT time.
We are still living on significantly less than our pension. For almost fifteen years now. One factor is that house has been paid for in full over twenty three years now.
Another is that our significant investment portfolio is untouched, and so far not needed. That housing values dropped means nothing to us. Not same for many who piled layers of reinvestments by increasing loans with the inflated value. And now the margin went south.
Finally a well structured HMO is our medical backup. It is part of our protection against the shocking costs of the healing arts.
Many thanks for the efforts to educate others the necessity of real financial reserves. SS is not even close to protection even with a paid for house. There are few private pensions that are risk free. So far the government pensions are much safer. Mine from 39 years federal service and my wife’s twenty eight in local government.
We still own most stocks we have purchased over some forty-seven years.
I’m 81 yrs and my future earnings are extremely limited if even in existence at all to replace any losses, so I’m keeping my powder dry. No one seems to talk about those years between ‘68 and ‘82 when I was trying to learn how to invest. Talk about watching “hair grow”. I learned after a while that one must play the trends. Trade – and it’s like table stakes poker – the guy with the most money is going to win, and few of us can match dollar for dollar with “some” of the “big boys”. I think the people who are trying to make a couple of bucks off this puny rally are going to have their butt served to them on a bloody platter cause that’s what they are going to lose.
DEAR MARTIN.
BECAUSE YOU ARE IN JUPITER I FEEL CONNECTED WITH YOUR INPUT . THE BROAD SPECTRUM INFORMATION WHICH YOU GAVE US ALL PRIOR TO THE TEXTBOOK OF YOUR BEST SELLER HAS GUIDED MY ACTIONS IN RELATIONSHIP TO COMMERCIAL PROPERTY AND MONIES EXTRACTED /SEEKING A NEW BANK AGREEMENT RE MY JUMBO LOAN AND ITS LOAN TO VALUE / ASSET PROTECTION WITH TREASURY FUND BACKED DEPOSITS INSTEAD OF A POSSIBLE BANK HOLIDAY… YOUR LOVE OF YOUR FATHER AND HIS INFLUENCE HAS CREATED A MAN (YOU )WHO IS TRULY IS TRYING TO DO THE BETTER GOOD BY RAISING ALARMS WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN RAISED EXCEPT BY CRAZY PARTISIANS AND PEOPLE WITH MONATARY AGENDAS THANK YOU JANE BAXTER
The information and recommendations you provide in these truly difficult times are appreciated. No doubt, a great deal of research effort backs up your team’s work. I am therefore surprised to see the gold ETF with symbol GLD among your recommendations. The prospectus should be carefully read. It in no way guarantees the existence of real gold behind the shares and does not take responsibility for genuine and reliable audits of said gold. Thank you.
i have been reading up on martin armstrong.economic advisor for obama.what do you say
As a new blogger, I have no idea what “Your comment is awaiting moderation” means.
Must be in a loop!
I live in the beautiful Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia, Canada, where we have a diverse economy consisting of a combination of farming, fishing, manufacturing, service, & tourism. It is a conservative area of the province, so when times are really good, we don’t over spend. When times are challenging, we continue to chug along. We have Acadia University, Community Colleges, financial services, Government employment, & a growing selection of big, box stores such as Wal-Mart & Home Depot which receive their revenue from diverse consumers that include students, retirees, & everyone in between. Home prices always seem to be on a slow upward trend no matter how bad it gets in other urban areas of the Great White North.
When one area of our economy begins to slow, the other industries pick up the slack, so that it never really seems to be in a recession type of environment. It’s hard to comprehend everything that one sees on the news of areas in the U.S. & parts of Canada that are hit so hard by the Recession because we don’t experience that type of economic slowdown in this area. There has been some jobs lost in the food processing industry, but, those jobs are now filled by workers in other provinces of Canada due to consolidation of certain businesses to increase the efficiency of those industries.
Nova Scotia is home to approximately one million citizens that get to live life in all four seasons of the year. Temperatures can range from about 0 F in the winter with snow to about 80 F in the summer with a nice climate. It sometimes gets colder in the winter & hotter in the summer, but, we don’t complain because our lifestyle more than makes up for it.
So, when I get up everyday & look out the window, the sky never seems to be falling, which in our part of the world, is a great thing. Happy trading & go bulls!
I wish I could write to all the folks who appear to be newly introduced to Martin. I have never had a lot of money to invest but I’ve read Dr. Weiss for many years and I want you to know in the BIG PICTURE he has never been wrong. He always has understood the major trends and explained them correctly since my first reading before 1979.
No one times markets perfectly. There are too many variables and unpredictables. But for the over all big trend Dr. Weiss has never been mistaken.
If you can afford to follow his advice do so. If you’re afraid of paper and paper promises buy something you can drop on your foot and sell later — something everyone will need eventually like gold or uranium or food.
Even those of us not in the market can understand what will happen to small business and to housing trends thanks to the Weiss Staff’s advice. Who else is telling you to beware of insurance companies and banks? Who else gives you a list of the ones to avoid and the ones you can trust?
Stop living emotionally. Think logically. Who else has the data and shares is, often freely, and shows you the smoke, the mirrors and the truth about huge businesses that are “too big to fail?”
Even the free lessons are worth reading and remembering.
My best advice is to do whatever Martin says to do. Don’t try to contradict him because someone on Wall Street who has never seen a crash disagrees. Those people are either thieves, or suddenly grow silent when their predictions turn to paper machet in the rain.
Dealing with Martin is like dealing with Him AND his late Father. That represents at least 90-years of combined knowledge and discussion INCLUDING Martin’s studies of economies in Japan, other parts of Asia, and Europe.
If he told me “Stand on your head and pray for the peace of Jerusalem” I would do it.
Steve Newdell
You are dead on target. History is replete with Governments that believed they could change the laws of economics by printing money to solve problems. In the end, both the laws of economics and the law of unintended consequences prevailed, but in the interim there was much unnecessary travail. Looks eeriely similar !
A prudent conservative investor would likely have the majority of their funds in interest bearing cash. Despite the puny interest currently being paid to savers vs the high and exorbitant credit card and few bank loans being made at high interest in comparison to their interest paid to their saver clients. I do feel this cash should be diversified in U.S. 6 and 9 mo. Treasury bills and 2 yr. max treasury notes and fdic-insured cd’s of 2 yrs or less. I would have no more than 10% or what you can TOTALLY LOSE short-term trading in this short-term bull trend speculation move. You might if the ants in your pants, will calm down– instead put that 10% speculative money instead in blue chip dividend paying stocks like Nestles (NSRGY), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), FPL grp. (FPL) and/or Central Fund of Canada (CEF) a gold/silver storage co., it pays a puny 1 or 2 cents a share, but it is your financial insurance policy only. You can use cash as a reserve to buy inverse ETF only when the bull trend has ended and the bull mkt support leve or distribution top level lows have been decisively broken through. I know how it feels to lose out on missing a good bull move doing nothing but watching it go up. However, remember a real sustaining, trend changing, GOOD BULL market has a good underpining of substance or fundalmental good business reasons and REAL FACTS backing that trend change. That will alert you to bullish trend change being real rather than a bear trap. Bull mkts setup by lying politicians working numbers to the sheep who will believe anything will work for only a short while, till realism of their truth-stretching kicks in for real. Don’t fall for “V” bottoms being the start of a new bull mkt. (they are usually s.t. up move swings not L.T. bull moves). Only a bottom with a wide “U” or “cup” or “head & shoulders” bottom will setup a real long term bull mkt trend change not a “V” bottom, which is short-term swings. Of course, a person could just put their getting worthless cash in raw land or farm. It will grow in value when inflation kicks in real good and you can alway live or grow something on it in depression kicks in for real. Be prudential in your pricing of purchase price and enviroment of its location and you or your heirs will all win in the end. You can tell wall street to “go to Hell”. You have real value from their make-believe world of numbers deceptions.
I hope this helps all the worriers, as it worked in the 30’s…I know I was there. God bless and help America to solve this challenge with good true lovers of the old good moral values, honest, politically-incorrect America of the past. No quota’s– you take responsibility for your mistakes or good actions and the consequences therof.
Martin,
Words alone are insufficient to express my gratitude for your valuable advice. In response to your early recommendations to abandon the stock market, I moved all of my IRA investments from the market and moved them to your recommended safe havens. My actions have been repeatedly confirmed as I listen to people bemoan stock-based portfolio losses of 40%, 50% and 60% and occasionally more. What is remarkable is that even today I listen to folks claim that their investment advisors continue to recommend that they keep their holdings in the market. Last August a very dear cousin of mine mentioned that her mutual funds had lost $15,000 in prinicipal value, and asked me what she should do. After informing her about your recommendations to get out of the stock market, I advised her to move her investments to a safe haven, which she did, and which her investment advisor advised against. Out of curiosity I recently checked on the status of her former mutual fund investments and discovered that had she remained in those investments, she would have lost another $50,000 in asset value. When I informed her of that discovery, she thanked me profusely. I then told her that our thanks needs to be conveyed to you. So…, both I and my cousin thank you for your timely and accurate advice.
Ed
Dear Martin,
You are doing great service to our country to protect the Dollar. The bankers lend money and government try to bail out from bad loans at Tax Payer’s expence. It is rediculous that bankers want their freedom yet they donot want to go Bankrupt. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve is the cause of all excessive money printing and Banks lends money with very low standard. The bankers are interested in more lucrative return via their hyperbolic function. I think we should go back to call loan and also abolish FDIC and reestablish the dream of President Thomas Jefferson. I am supporting your fight for sound dollar.
Martin, your book is brilliant, a true handbook for those who can “read/understand” what you say and “get” what you don’t say. Don’t be discouraged because many won’t get “it.” Your readers have misinterpreted what you say about inverse ETF’s — they are plays, not investments. They are efficient vehicles to be opportunistic with respect to pending negative events. You buy them because you intend to sell them. As a trader said recently — this is not a buy and hold market, if you aren’t a trader you don’t belong in it. Your advice is sage for those with the nervous system to trade, if not sit on the sidelines in T-bills in full safety. You have done us all a service. Keep writing, I am reading.
I sometimes wonder whether your dismal forecasts are to see more copies of your book and subscriptions to your on-line advice services. When you were predicting the Dow could down to 5000, I moved my equities to cash at 7300 to avoid that calamity. Now I am $100,000 poorer because I have not been in the market. I’m certainly less inclined to follow it in the future than I was in the past.
Martin and all at Weiss research. Thank you for all the great insight you’ve provided throughout these tumultuous financial times.
In addition to your grassroots activism to motivate Congress to enact real change, you should consider lending your influence to help promote recent legislation HR 1207 proposed by Congressman Ron Paul. This bill would require a full audit of the Federal Reserve by Congress to determine exactly where and to whom all these recent bailout funds have gone. As of now, there is no oversight of the Fed’s actions. HR 1207 would remedy that. The bill currently has over 124 co-sponsors and counting. I encourage you to spread the word among your readers. Learn more at http://www.campaignforliberty.com
Daer Martin & Readers;
I for one am pursuing the BOTH, but NOT chasing the market. I have a couple of selected stocks that I am riding up, one in energy, one consumer staple and gold thru
the spyder GLD etf. I have the Fairholme fund, a moderate yielding US long
term bond w/corporate inv grade as well, one of which one of your writers suggested, and I was already in, and a short Treasuries MMF which is currently @ 23% of total
IRA. OOOps, forgot I have a miner and an international carrier/xporter. Have had
radiation & chemo, so I blame these lapses on that :) I would very much like to have
these consistant ‘alerts’, AND the occasional suggestion of where the best buys are for the contrarian in me/us !!! Thanks again for all you have done for me personally,
I am Tom in Midlothian :)
I AM A REAL ESTATE BROKER/INVESTOR ON LONG ISLAND NY. WE BENEFIT HERE FORM ALL THE FEDERAL SPENDING BINGE TO WALL STREET AND THE ROBBER BARON BANKERS STILL HOLDING THIS REGION TOGETHER WITH THE REST OF THE COUNTRY’S HARD EARNED DOLLARS. IT IS SICKENING TO WITNESS ALL OUR FOUNDING FATHER’S CORE VALUES AND BELIEFS BEING SHREDDED BEFORE US. IT IS HORRIFYING. MARTY, YOU ARE THE VOICE. PLEASE SHOUT FROM THE ROOFTOPS UNTIL YOU HAVE MILLIONS BEHIND YOU TO TAKE THIS GOVERNMENT AND THIS MADNESS TO IT’S KNEES. THEY MUST BE FORCED TO OBEY THE CONSTITUTION AND FREE MARKET DISCIPLINES.
Martin, I am in my 80’s and remember well the trials and hard times of the 30’s. My dad, who was an engineer, lost his manufacturing business when the banks closed in 33 and he could not get his money out of the bank to pay his payroll. About a week before the banks closed he paid cash for a new Chevrolet sedan. He quickly decided that his wealth was lost but he still had about $100 in cash, a good brain, a loyal family, good health, and that new car. He was able to sell the car for a $100 bill and a 10 year old T-Model Ford. We packed everything we could into and on the model T and headed South where he said we would grow our own food. He rented a brand new house, which had been built by a speculator, for $8.00/month and planted a huge garden. He bought a Jersey milk cow for $5.00, and a hog for $2.00. After some time he got a job scrubbing a hotel swimming pool at a salary of $40.00/month. His hours were 7AM-7Pm, 7 days/week. All of a sudden we were rich. My uncle and I tended the garden and I peddeled the surplus in that old model T.[ milk=5cents a quart, eggs=1 cent each or 8 cents/dozen, tomatoes=2cents per pound [the bruised ones were free] etc. We saved everything we could. Eight years later Dad owned 1/3 interest in the hotel, half interest in a thriving restaurant, our home and 3 rental housed which he had purchased from HOLC for $400 each. He bought a 5 year old Dodge during that time but we kept the model T.
During those years we lived well but had very few luxuries. He said anyone could have done the same things he did if they tried hard enough.
I made a little money in the stock market from 1947 thru 2008 but have lost most of it lately. Then I decided to follow your advice about inverse ETF’s but evidently I got in at the wrong time. I made a little quick money at first, they I went “all in”. Since then the market in my ETF, have gone in the wrong direction but I haven’t giving up and plan to buy more if the price declines another @2.00. I hope your predictions are correct. If we have the free-fall you predict I will be O.K., otherwise I guess I will tighten my belt a few notches.
Martin, you have integrity and you are the only expert that I trust.
My wife & I are 72, live on a fixed income, & have lost heavily in our savings thru the stock market in allegedly professionally managed programs. I doubt I can ever trust Wall Street again, & absolutely will never trust D.C. anymore. I traded almost all my remaining savings into money markets last year, with the exception of enough to cover my required distribution which I have shaved off 1/2 for the rest of this year. I’m greatly disgusted, & dissapointed with a lot of things right now, & wonder if my best decision would be to trade 1/3 or more for gold/silver coins, or small pieces of bullion. Everett
Dear Martin,
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bushes,cash is king,don’t hang your hat higher than you can reach it,a penny saved is a penny earned. These are some of the wise sayings I grew up with and they are still true. Perhaps it’s time to look at the investment options that we have available and ask ourselves the question, where is the best place to put your money?
The bible says, “Lay up treasure in heaven where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, or thieves break through and steal; for where your treasure is there will your heart be also.” Where is the heart of America?
On November 22nd, 2008 at precisely 12:15 P.M – half way between my back door and the road, the Lord spoke to me and said the following: “the country must downsize”. As I meditated on this, I received the following: Irrational lending and credit spending, has created leverage never before seen in our economy. For example, when credit was no longer available on cards etc., consumers used home equity lines to buy everyday necessities such as food etc. Then disaster hit. Defaults began to strike the lenders. Credit was no longer available. Both borrowers and lenders have been BADLY burned. As a result an economic culture change has occurred. We moved from a credit to a “cash and carry” economy. Thusly, people stopped spending and started saving.
As “fringe” economic problems seem to now abate, the REAL issue, which has been overlooked, is becoming more visible to people. That issue? Consumer spending. Clearly, cash and carry spending is much less than credit spending. Available goods and services must adjust to new demand levels. Thus the downsizing!
It is unlikely that consumer spending will EVER return to previous borrowing levels. What happens when credit is flowing again and there are much fewer takers? Then we will see IN SPADES what the real problem is.
We can only guess how much less the GDP will be verses prior years. I believe that it will be at least 5 points lower than normal. Since normal growth is in the 3-4% range, it would seem then that we may see no meaningful GDP growth for years to come.
Thus, the country must downsize! I predicted unemployment in double digits in November 2008 based on what the Lord told me. Now, we’re seeing this unfold before our very eyes. Tyler L. Cole
The last so called ‘bear rebound’ is sustained for a longer period than previous bear rebounds. Does this mean this is a new sustained bull rally or another real bear rally?
I respect and admire your integrity and passion to help people…as a way to EARN a living…I truly read what you send me…and keep your insights as a part of my decisions…
Thank you for your generosity and Inclusionary attitude…
Here is something I see as a Writer and Award Winning Filmmaker…
What no one is talking about is something far more dangerous then the market…it took 8 decades for the auto industry to CREATE jobs…and what no one is dealing with is what will REALLY Happen when the Millions of NEVER before unemployed … at the same time…and in the MILLIONS…who had UNIONS to protect them and who destroyed the Companies…will now become Large numbers of ARMED and mentally unbalanced and desperate souls…who are at the ages that they will not find work WHEN their Unemployment runs out…No one wants to talk about this…we are not talking about a small company going out of business…we are talking about HUGE companies that are a Huge part of our Countries Industrialized Identity…Cars are like Baseball…it’s apart of our sense of who we are…
In America Before this crisis on average…between 14,000 and 25,000 Americans commit violent Crimes with weapons that all lead to Murder and Death every year. Add 10 to 20 million once stable Americans who all of a sudden in 12 months from now still have no jobs…it is a Recipe for Revolution…Civil War…the haves and have not’s…the fed and starving…The Bloods and the Crip’s…gangs will be created…spread…like wild fire…more of a Divided Nation…economic hardship will split the Nation…
We are a nation with over 2 million prisoners…Largest in the World…we are not a peaceful laid back everyone is equal and we all take care of each other no matter what..it’s a very cut throat Nation…that needs to move quickly to help get new jobs for these citizens that will soon be at their Wits END…
Wall street? Banking? Credit? Mortgages?
We are talking about a basic problem about to shake this nation like nothing else…a Nation that Encouraged it’s people to live ABOVE THEIR means…and now we will see a CONFRONTATION…of survival…Food and Shelter will be the REALITY…and when you think what took years to build to create stability for all these citizens …good descent people …lied to about mortgagees and Credit so some real estate agent could make a Fee…without any responsibility to that family to ensure that they were making a deal that they could live with…
So…when you ask about what I see…I hear about more money for BANKS…unless America realizes it is no longer a cutting edge Leader in making things…and that Americans don’t want to be paid a FAIR wage…but want to have a partnership position that they have 100% benefits and no responsibility to what that does to the Profit of a company…UNIONS destroyed the Competitiveness of our companies…Americans Lived above their Earnings and will now face what it is they contributed to the current debacle of a nation that lost it’s way…
So…this is a time that will fool many…and there is a time for Quick profits …but the Storm is coming…all we felt was the Warning…to take cover…and that we are in trouble…the diagnosis is in…Our Nation has Financial CANCER…and it is killing Millions…the Virus of Greed and living above your means is a difficult one to stop…
Take a look at history…The Greeks …The Romans…and they too believed in the end in a different reality about their personal behavior…their morals and ethics were EXTREMELY Abarrated….meaning not Morally sound…Virtues and traditional behavior was Challenged…and the FEW demanded what they wanted to be the Norm…and that also contributed to the Fall…lack of Ethics…our Wall Street friends…have no Ethics…and Bernie Madoff proved that given a chance to steal…it was NORMAL…acceptable…and smart…and they would pat themselves on the back for every dollar the were stealing…when you can not trust the leaders of the Institutions then the people lose FAITH…and that means they will be forced to survive any way they can…any way…once they have been abandoned and they will be…
So…America is at a Moral and Ethical crossroad…and the market will not solve the problems of the nations soul…
This is a far deeper story then the economy…I suggest you visit Detroit…walk the street of all the cities and see the number of Homeless…all over the NATION
I see Angry Americans that when they can no longer eat…and have no where to live…and the New Jobs hire young kids…for cheap…and we still have 35-65 year old nation of Millions lost…it sounds like a very dangerous scenario…once Unemployment is gone…and I mean after 3 – 4 extensions…there will be another Huge amount of Foreclosures when the next LUMP of increases in payments Explode …from the sub prime deals…and then the following year…so…this is a quiet STORM…we got hit with External Wave on the Edge of the storm…and we put up some Walls called bailouts…but soon the Storm will hit Internally and externally…from within the MILLIONS And Millions of Unemployed…
So…no matter how High the Stock market goes…until the UNEMPLOYED MILLIONS are back to work…we have a TIME BOMB TICKING…
Dear Dr. Weiss: I agree 100% if we are going to experience another deflationary depression. What will be the sequence of events for an inflationary depression, regarding stock prices, commodity prices, consumer prices in general. I think this is where we are headed.
MARTIN: WE NEED MORE PEOPLE LIKE YOU IN OUR FORM OF AMERICAN ENTERPRISE!
OUR POSITION IS QUITE SIMPLE. WE ARE TOO OLD TO TAKE ANY CHANCES IN
WITH STOCKS OR OTHER INVESTMENTS, NO MATTER HOW CONVINCING IT MAY SEEM.
WE BOUGHT A NEW HOUSE FOR RETIREMENT IN FLORIDA FOR ALMOST 700K AND NOW WORTH, IF WE ARE LUCKY, ABOUT 500K. WE HAVE A FEW 100K IN THE BANK AND JUST LOOKING HOLD ON TO MINIMIZE ANY FURTHER LOSES. THE FDIC WILL NOT TELL US IF OUR BANK IS O.K. AND THAT IS WHY WE HAVE TO TUNE YOU IN FOR ANY INFORMATION THAT WILL BE HELPFUL TO PRESERVE OUR NEST EGG. STAY HEALTHY AND BE STRONG SO YOU ARE ABLE TO CONTINUE FEEDING US YOUR GREAT SERVICE
FOR US MIDDLE CLASS FOLKS. ALL THE BEST, SCOTT
I am just wondering what you think about holding on to stock/mutual funds that are commodities such as petroleum etc.?I have been reading once again about the impending extreme rise of the cost of oil.
MR MARTIN WEISS
MY FEELINGS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS YOURS.
IN THE BOOK THE GREAT GAME OF WALL STEET OF WALL STREET WHEN THE
STOCK MARKET CRASHED 1929. JP MORGAN CAME IN A PUT MILLIONS & MILLIONS
OF MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET, THEN LATER PULLED THEIR MONEY OUT AND
MORE. THEN THE GREAT DEPRESSION SET IN.
WALL STREET AND THE BIG BANKS ARE DOING THE SAME THING NOW .
THERE IS AN OLD ENGLISH SAYING HE WHO FIGHTS AND RUNS AWAY, WILL LIVE
TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY.
MY MONEY IS WAITING ON THE SIDE LINE
JOHN R.WARD
Making financial decisions based on wanting to “get rich quick ,” will hurt even more if you loose your health, due to stress and worry. Pay off your debt and live modestly with thoughts of helping yourself to simple things in life that don’t cost a thing . Then help your family , friends, and your neighbor. You never know when a random act of kindness will bring happiness, a feeling of satisfaction and blessings to YOU. And if you are on top of the mountain now, we all know that you in most cases were not dropped there, but you can easily fall off. Help people less fortunate than yourself and do it expecting nothing in return. Take time and think about it ….
If you are right Dr wiess and we see another crash and the current market rally turns out to be .farce investors will lose faith and the whole financial system based on capitalism will collapse.Iam holding 50% of my portfolio in cash
dear martin, your perception through the eyes of experience has been most helpful and enlightening. as mere men, none of us see much. only GOD sees the big picture. i am thrilled to have your website recommended by two close friends and have found you and your staff to be forthright in integrity and honesty that is sadly lacking in most of the market place. please continue speaking and writing the truth as you see it and understand it and you will be richly rewarded in many wonderful ways that will be revealed to you. i treasure you and respect you for your intrepid stand. now is the moment of power. allow the light to dispel the darkness. i am standing with you in your call. you are not alone! many are on your side although not always visible. your friend, richard
Dear Martin, I’ve studied the Bible for many years. The prophesies that the Prophets of old as well as Jesus, Paul and others have fortold, I truly believe with all my heart that we are coming to the end of time as we know it. Probably the next scenario’ll be Ezekiel 39 & 39 – Gog and Magog come into Israel to take a spoil. What’s happening with the Russian alliance with Iran and other muslim nations is coming together like hand in glove. When they invade, Gods’ fury will destroy most of these invading armies. How that’ll affect our finances only God knows. I do know Jesus – I asked Him into my life and I’ve forseen these events coming for sometime (33 years). As far as Obama and the left are concerned I trust them about as far as I can throw a bull elephant. Neither political party impresses me at all. The only real answer is Jesus and the Bible – the greatest document ever written. Shalom! Steve Broadie USNret.
I do not see much improvement here in Nebraska. I see more businesses closing and people being let go. As far as putting money in the banks, with no more control than was in place was a joke. I am losing m parents house because of one loan officer and his processor lying to me and my family. They have ruined our credit. They have put us into bankruptcy. But not one program out there helps us save our house. Then to make matters worse they were handed buyers who would qualify and turned them down for a loan. My attorney offered different ways to solve this and te final answer was no they would only go one way and foreclose because they get a better tax break. To heck with us middle class trying to hold up to our commitments. My loan they say does not qualify for help because it is a line of credit on my folks townhouse. They passed away 2 years apart with no life insurance and we inherited it and their debt. The line of credit was to fix the townhouse up and sell it. But the bottom fell out of the real estate market. Here it is not coming back. I don’t see the economy coming back. All they want is th little money we have left and make us feel it is safe to spend it and then when we hit bottom they tell us we don’t qualify. I am not going to be taken in again. Thank you for all you are doing. It is appreciated. JN
I agree with Delilah, she is right on the money. The Bible does speak about an economic distruction. There will come a man who will claim to solve all the worlds economic woes. This is the sudden destruction, as everyone will be taken in. Just be on guard. Mr. Weiss thank you for your good advice.
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is this program what he said it is, Thank You, Dennis
I am one of those techies who, in my working years, new a lot about my specialties, but vertually nothing about the the wide science, if such exists, of economy. But i was a child of the last depretion and remember vividly how our family and the bit of world and other people around us suffered. That suffer staide with us all the way into the WWR2 and when I graduated from High Scholol and volunteered into the military. After listening to two sessions of Auto Makers trying to get baylouts, I made clear my thoughts to all my members of Govenment, my reasons why thay must not waste mony on them because it will only strech out their failure and leve less for the more people who will be out of a job. Then just this week, I fortunately turrend to thinking of my personal econominal possition. The best thing I did for myself, in this wild current time, was to grab the oportunity to by your”ULITMATE DEPRESSION SURVIVAL GUIDE”. For the first time, instead of wild accusations and unexplained theory, your book, with everything backed up with hard data and clear explanation, I found someone whose sound judgment I could trust. And with that I have already made the first and most important steps to weather the storm. I thank God for th the precence of you and your father’s legasie and all your honest work to seed real thinking into our official leaders. PLASE KEEP IT UP.
I’m an investor from Australia and have been reading your daily articles with great interest. A few months ago I moved from holding shares to cash [after losses of about 36%], missed the recent rise of approx 25% and am now unsure whether to make the move from cash back to shares.
Writers and analysts here are saying we hit bottom in March, but your articles differ to this position. Can you please clarify?
I’m a little nervous jumping back in after sustaining these losses and would appreciate your advice.
Hello Martin:
I have a couple of questions that will probably expose my ignorance, but I will ask them anyway and perhaps it will provide entertainment to some!
If much of the loss of money by the Wall Street banks and insurance companies came from lost bets (derivatives, credit default swaps), who were the winners of those same bets, and why do we not hear from them?
To me, so much of what takes place on Wall Street (and Bay Street, etc, I’m Canadian, eh), seems to have little to do with investing, but more to do with gambling and greed.
Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego explained what a derivative is on 60 Minutes. He said that “a derivative is a financial instrument whose value is based on something else. It’s basically a side bet.” He goes on to say, “Think of it for a moment as a football game. Every week, the New York Giants take the field with hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl. If they do, they will get more money and glory for the team and its owners. They have a direct investment in the game. But the people in the stands may also have a financial stake in the outcome, in the form of a bet with a friend or a bookie. We could call that a derivative. It’s a side bet. We don’t own the teams. But we have a bet based on the outcome. And a lot of derivatives are bets based on the outcome of games of a sort. Not football games, but games in the markets.”
So my question to you, Martin, is this: What would be wrong with the concept of moving the gambling element away from the market (a so-called Off Market Betting, like Off Track Betting) and just keep the markets for investing? I would also eliminate shorting (especially naked shorting!) as well. The gamblers would have to use their own money to make bets and only they would be exposed to the loss (or gain) and the small independent investor would be spared.
Hi Martin & all my friends here
When a stock is 50 $ and fall by 5 $, it fall 10%. But if the stock has already fallen from
50 $ to 5 $ (like AIG, C, GM) and afterwards rise by the same 5 $ – it rise by 100%. So
the “bullish” trend since March 2009 is the same. Technically, i think that yesterday was the end of first Eliot wave, and the begining of 38%-62% correction. Maybe this correction will be the second bottom everyone is “waiting” for, or a bigger correction on the way down. In any case, and if today the S&P continue to go down – i think i’m going
to by some ultrashort ETFs.
Good luck for everybody, end to you, Martin
Yours
Yoash Zigelman
yoashz@gmail.com
I don’t have alot of money to invest and hope that someday I can justify the expense of buying your newsletter. I own a home that has lost approximately 30 percent of its value. I listened to you but could not convince my wife that it was time to sell our home. What a mistake. You were right. I just wanted to drop you a line and tell you that I really enjoy and appreciate the free advice in your newsletter. I will not make such a monumental mistake again. We have to ride this out. Someday I will be able to take your advice from the paid newsletter and that gives me hope.
I am now 85 and have presently about 600 dollars.
Since 1984 during the 21% prime rate time I have only been loosing Then 700K in R.E.
Early 90 200K and now some 90K and mostly because of my stupidity and or greed.
I had great plans and I cross-collaterized some 40 properties and then the bottom fell -1983-4.
Take care, you are doing a great job. I always readd about your ideas and advice even though it is a little late for me.
Your admirer Sakari Hiltunen.
Martin ,no man Ive ever taken more notice of then my Par is you ,everything tha t you picked in the last so many months since Ive been receiving your emails has hit the nail on the head ,even though most of it is effecting your country as Im in apparently the lucky country (down under)Australia. I read your concerns wit h interest and the n watch the market channel of the sky satelittes and you are always correct ,them being a day later.
Ive taken a gamble with the $1000 stimuluse money that OUR P.M. dished out t o working people over here and put in into the top 200 asx earners through my bank ,the ANZ , so far its going ok ,but like you say ,they are a long term investment ,so cant g o on forever ,except ,like Ive ben saying over here ,once we come out of recession ,what happens next ?well what happened after the 1929 -32 depression we had WW2, so Im hinting this may happen again to get the economies moving again ,but it could be worse the n 60 yrs ago,this is my thinking anyways ,hope I m wrong ,yours in Australia Peter
I agree with everything you say. Over the last two years i was mostly in cash and my real estate holdings were in timber land and low overhead nonrental property. I don’t believe Washington and feel that this economic crisis is far from over. I have some mutual funds that i have had for years and plan on starting to get rid of them if dow gets up around 9000. I’m waiting for a break through to a new low and start buying some good corporate bonds and cash heavy blue chips that will weather the storm. I got some good experience during the tech bust but eventually got my money back by averaging down but my arm got tired and cash low and a ride i will never forget. I believe this crap will last for years and we will have ups and downs and stocks will lose their luster. A little gold during times like this might help.
I am one who knows that this is simply a bull (false) rally in the middle of this bear market. Anyone who thinks otherwise will find out the hard way very soon. As others have said no one knows for sure when the swings up and legs down will start, but Martin and others have clearly sounded the alarm.
Personally I have made more money in the last two months in the stock market than any other time over the pass years. But one has to watch daily, and have your checks and balances in place, such as your exit stratergy and stop losses in place. And soon within 30 to 60 days out I believe the inverse ETF’s will be where most of the money will be made in my opinion.
As far as Bill above has stated Dow 400 and worst we have ever seen, well I believe he is correct on that one, because it reminded me of a section I read in a book.
I have a book on my shelve i pulled it is called the Journal Of the Unknown Prophet. I would like to share just a few short lines from the section “Judgement Upon The World Trading Systems” Prophetic WORD received November 1999.
For I tell you, indeed I declare to you the things that have yet to take place upon the Earth, before the time of the great tribulation.
For the Depression of 1929 shall be as nothing in comparison to the losses and devastation that shall strike the stock markets of the world stage in the years ahead. For I tell you that as each man to himself has trusted in and placed his trust in idols of gold and of silver so shall the judgements start to rain down.
So shall it be as in the twinkling of an eye that the stock markets and the trading systems of the great nations shall, even in a matter of a forty-eight hour period, collapse. That every man who for himself has laid up great treasure, shall in a season be reduced to nothing.
For that which man has placed his trust in, will fail him. The trading systems of this world, which men have been told are infallible, shall prove themselves tenuous at the least and shall be the ruin of many millions in the years to come. And the ruin shall come greater upon those who have placed much faith in the arm of man. For I prophesy that the stock markets of the Western and Eastern world shall fall. And as they fall, so devastation shall strike the world’s economy. And so those who have trusted in the wealth of man to save them, shall finally see their idols for what they are. They shall say: We are brought down to nothing as in a day; that which we were told could not be has happened in a day.
And so a great terror shall strike at the heart of those who have ruled the nations by control and manipulation—-by trade and by extortion—as they see their idols collapse before them. And so the great shaking and judgements upon the Earth shall begin.
There is much more to the prophesy but length and time will not allow all the time and space here but you can purchase the book and read at length, if you so desire. How close are we no one knows. But I believe their are serious dark days ahead for this nation. We can make money in this market up and down, but in the days ahead after all is said and done, what will it be worth. One would have to believe the value of the dollar will remain where it currently is and we know for a fact that is not going to happen. Thank you Martin Weiss for your voice and others also such as Martin Armstrong, whom some believe to be right on the mark forward looking. Just remember we are going to make it.
I think that the market movements are produced as much by perception as by the realities. The realities may be horrible, and the real future even more horrible, but if the perceptions are that things are getting better – probably as the result of the federal government actions – than people will buy. Perceptions are a form of reality and history shows that people do react to them. Thanx to Dr. Weiss for documenting all of his observations. I love the graphs!
I was reassured that my thinking was not so very different than that of many of the people who sent you messages. I am 84 years old and the caregiver for my 88 year old WWII veteran husband who has Alzheimer’s disease. My question is the same as many others. What do we do to preserve the assets we have at present? We may live another ten years. Our dollars will keep losing value. It really is a mess. Thank you though for your common sense guidance.
Martin, I can’t stop myself from continually remembering how many entities were begging for bailouts from the governmet through late March or early April. Then, suddenly, all the financial institutions are healthy again, the car companies were (for a while) suggesting that the worst is behind us and the present market rise started. This caused consumer confidence to rise, which in turn caused more investing and more market rising. Then I find out, through one of your timely e-mails, that the government had allowed the financial institutions to re-value their toxic assets as they saw fit and deleted many of their liabilities from their balance sheets. Is it any wonder that things look so rosy?
My question is this: if the financial institutions are allowed to keep the toxic assets off the books for, lets say 10 years, maybe they will eventually become non-toxic and we will all wish we had jumped onto the stock bandwagon before it jumped out of sight. Would all investors who stayed in cash then wish they hadn’t?
Dick in California
Martin… thanks again for this opportunity…
This latest up has been good for my bottom line ..regaining a quarter or so of what I lost…So what now …energy…gold still? With the way they are spending money I feel its only a matter of time before thos e interest rates start to creep up? I hate to see what that will do to the housing crisis then.?
Dear Martin,
Your comments & recommandations are very sharp and interesting. My problem is that I’m French (nobody’s perfect) and it’s not easy for me and my friends to follow invest according to your advise as it’s seems they’re only for American residents.
Kind regards,
Gérard Normand
Even in bull years there has been a seasonal stock drop in late May to early August. Since 9-11 the recover has been waiting until after 9/11. I believe it would be krazy to be long the general stocks after Memorial Day. This is not a bull market, but a bear market. Of course inflation could kick in and the stocks could rise as faster rising inflation strips their value out. My question is what about gold stocks. They often follow the general stocks and bottom in August or early September. Greenspan once said his coharts would pick a time and run the golds up in July when everyone is out. That hasn’t happened yet, but with major market leaders pressing the IMF for gold sells to protect their currencies, this might be the year they switch sides and drive the gold price increase. (The IMF normally gets hung up in politics, can’t put it together, and gold shoots up). They probably can not contain it for much more. Of course one of the big banks is suppose to be on the wrong side of 80% of 408 trillion worth of interest derivatives. If interest rates start to rise they are toast (I believe it is JP Morgan). That might cause that to happen. JP Morgan is one the big boys protect. Most of our Treasury Secretaries come from them. What do you think?
Watching what the government is doing or trying to do to the Chrysler Bond Holders, convinces me that you can get burned on any investment, especially when the government keeps changing the rules. That should be enough to make anyone think twice about any “safe” or “secure” investment, especially in a company that’s “too big to fail”. Then some people wonder why Americans might be reluctant to invest.
Martin,
Lately I have been speculatively following Larry Edelson’s advice and using the pro-etfs to recover much of my money for what I agree with you will be a major downward plunge in the market. I believe in making money in both directions, Martin, whether it is via using inverse etfs or pro-etfs. If you use trailing stops and make sure that you are out of the market each day at its close, you minimize, if not eliminate, getting caught in the bear trap. Just fyi to all of your readers: This market is moving up insanely, unsoundly, irrationally. It just makes no damn sense at all. I have gotten to the point where I don’t care why it is moving upward. I am okay with that. If I can make money riding the insane rally (again, using my trailing stops), what the hell. Why not? Can you or anybody give me any reasons why I should not???? Tell me how I can get caught in the bear trap with my trailing stops in place and making sure that I am out of the market at the end of each day’s trading??
Scott Parker
i live in australia , our banking system is in pretty good shape we dont have subprime leanding . do you know much about our stocks and stockmarket your advice would be great . i do own a copy of your new book and what a great help thank you , for what you have done of your own back , good to see there are still some great people in this world , you give us all hope cheers
a good rule of thumb is that when everything gets upside down and chaotic, keep it simple. Buy gold. It’s solid (pardon the pun) and stable.
and hold on for Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride! whoopeeee!
Martin: I am 64 and have been on disability for 4 years. My wife is one year younger and works for a non-profit on support she raises. I have spent all of my 401K. I have just collected my 4th of 5 esop payments. We have a few high interest loans that we plan to pay off with that esop money. My question is, if I were to have $10,000 free to spend, where should i put it? Into some low interest loans (3 to 9%/year)? Into sprucing up our Roadtrek R.V. to make it attractive enough to sell and to pay the bank the approximately $3000.00 we would have left on our van loan? Into a roof mounted solar electric and hot water system for $10,000, bearing in mind the Fed. tax break of 30% of the cost? Into some investment for the short-term future (0 to 5 years)? If you happen to select #4, into what specifically should I put the $10,000?
I might conclude by saying that a year from now I will get my final esop payment, and that is the last source of additional income as things stand right now till the end of my life.
I have your “survival guide” and am in the middle of it. Thanks for it, and for all the reading on the web you and your associates have provided.
Be well,
Don
Hello
DEAR Dr weiss ,
soon after I finish reading your book i start selling all my stocks with a big lost , since then market keep going up and i lost the chance to cover some of my lost .
my question is how far do you think the market would go up before crashes, i know its impossible to predict , but i am sure you might have some idea.?
and when do you think we should start buying the inverse ETF ? seems like so far every body lost money on them .
also is there any chance that we can have our questions/concern answered?
I am sure so many of us have the same concern /questions and it would be nice if we can share your views and respond.
Thank You so much for your guidance and sharing your experience and wisdom with all of us
Dr. Weiss,
Thirty years ago I read your book “The Great Money Panic”. In it you described a scenario whereby the Federal Government would try to continue to finance larger and larger debts. The battle between the government’s attempt to inflate the currency versus massive forces of deflation would take place. The government would reach a point where investors would no longer buy the government bonds for fear of currency devaluation.
We are nearing that point now. We are reaching the point of the system “locking up”.
I pay very close attention to what you say about investments and the economy and I thank you for sharing your insights in SafeMoney and Money and Markets.
Martin, I think you are dead on in your analysis, we are not done going down but I also think based on the elliot wave theory we are not done with the bear market bounce either. I see a brief decline in the s&p to the low 800s (800-840) then a run back to around 1000, after which you should go all short for another almost 500+ point decline to unfold. I want to thank u martin u sure do great work.
M.
I listened to your advice a few weeks back Doc, and turned my ‘endowment ins policy’ into cash. I placed it in the best interest bank acc available at present here in the UK, only 2.5% variable but as the policy relied on the markets performance (FTSE) I wanted out, even though there is a bounce presently,I believe from your knowlegable advice that another down turn is more than possible which would be a risk I don’t want to take.
This policy has been in place for 16 years and only paid back what I invested, with no benefits at all!
But at least thanks to your generous… and free… advice I have been able to save myself a lot of heartache and possibly a very large loss.
I’m not sure where to look for better returns at present but as the banks / government now have a guarantee in place for any banking shortfall I know I can’t lose!
Many many thanks and God bless you Doctor Martin Weiss.
iT WAS A FAITH AND TRUST IN GOD THAT MADE OUR NATION THE GREATEST ON EARTH!! YET OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS WE HAVE SEEN EVERY THING POSSIBLE HAPPEN TO GET RID OF GOD.NO PRAYER IN WORLD MEETINGS. NO ,PRAYER IN OUR SCHOOLS.CONDONING AND MAKING LEAGAL ABORTION, LEGALIZING SAME SEX MARRIAGE. TRYING TO TAKE “IN GOD WE TRUST” OFF OUR MONEY.REMOVING THE 10 COMMANDMENTS OUT OF OUR COURTS AND ON AND ON!! UNTIL WE RETURN TO “GOD” IN REVIVAL,WE WILL SEE MORE DEVESTATION AND DESTRUCTION!!.OUR REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL NOT SURVIVE IF WE DO NOT TURN BACK TO GOD. tHAT IS MY OPPINION AND MUCH OF IT COMES FROM GODS WORD,THE BIBLE.
ERIC
Dear Mr Weiss:
I have been reading your column for some time and it is always informative. However I always get a picture of gloom and doom. I am certain that in these difficult economic times there must be some positive and encouraging things going as well.
Dear Dr Weiss,
I would like to join the thousands of others to acknowledge with gratitude & thanks for the valuable insights & direction to take for safeguarding the dwindling value of assets.
No word can really convey my appreciation & I humbly dsarsay Martin thank you very much for your valuable & much appreciated service.
Best wishes & warmest regards.
John Ang
Hi martin,
What are your views on interest rates? Do you think in 2-3 years time with all the infaltionary pressure in the market at the moment that we will be back at the higher interest rates we had 3-4 years ago?
Jamie
Dear Martin,
It’s clear to me that you are here today to assist people, and not to make profits for yourself or your firm. I’d guess your attitude to be “if we make a profit, good, but if we don’t, so be it.” God will be your final reward, but until then, I thank you for being what I was raised to think an American should be – “We the people for the people.”
At 59, and a 100% service-connected disabled veteran, I need to see people like you are still around. You are a good U.S. Marine; one on a mission that won’t end due to personal pains & reasons.
God Bless You,
John
Two hours ago I was skimming the J.B. Phillips translation of the New Testament.
I was surprised by how almost every random flip of 2-3 pages brought statements
like: “Be on your guard against these scribes who love to walk about in long robes and be greeted respectfully in public places and to have the best seats at dinner
parties” (chapter 12)……and…
“Be careful that no one deceives you. Many are going to come in my name and say ‘I am he’, and will lead many astray” (chapter 13)…and…
“How difficult it is for those who have great possessions to enter the Kingdom of God”…..(chapter 10)… And then a short time later I am reading your newsletter and the comments of so many people who seem to be intelligent, concerned, articulate,
and who each have some level of awareness about something important that is greater and more detailed than average.
I submit that there is another element. I know with absolute certainty that it is important but I don’t claim to fully understand it. It is a missing link that is right in front of us, but I don’t hear many people discussing it.
Briefly stated, we have forgotten the meaning of Money. We are so collectively
entranced with the meaning of the Power that money has in most situations that we have forgotten that this power exists because of our mutually agreed-upon deeply powerful self hypnosis. We think that it has value, but if your pre-school child has a one-dollar bill in his left hand and a thousand-dollar bill in his right hand, look closely
and ask yourself, what is he really holding?
I suggest that if you count it up carefully you will see that he is holding….
Two pieces of paper.
Martin, For a long time now I have been following your advice and reading your take on what is going on in this crazy world we live in. I want to suggest a book for you to read “The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It” by Joshua Cooper Ramo (Hardcover – Mar 23, 2009) I just started it and I find it absolutely facinating. It is not only about banking and finance, but it is more about us and what has gone wrong here in the USA. Joshua Cooper Ramo really asks one to think, and I think he is dead on with what his conclusions are about what has gone wrong here in the United States and the world.
Best Regards, Carl
I get the feeling that Governments heavy intervention has not merely added to market volitility but caused the ‘ green shoot ‘ illusion. This is a govt induced rally!
Many thanks for your realistic observations. Althouth I am in the UK I find your understanding and explanations of whats going on the best there is. It all seems to make sense over here as well as over there, and if your ever come up with direct reference to the UK economy it would be gratefully recieved by interested followers of your website/blog. A lot of people really seem to believe green shoots are appearing. Really?
Have already commented and am waiting for a response from you.
With limited income, what are the risks of inverse etfs. How can I invest and know when to sell? I think “stop-loss” has been used by others. Is this an answer?
Martin, I note that quite a few of the “regulars” from Money and Markets have moved on the “Uncommon Wisdom”. This seems to have occurred around the same time your views on the likelihood of a depression have firmed. Has there been dissention in the hallowed halls of Weiss and Co? Could you please explain.
Got out of all my stocks in January, 2008. Was watching the same data you do re. the enormous build-up in derivatives and the notational value the BIS has put on all of that. Still don’t understand where and how the banks and other securitization geniuses are handling all of this. However, my Trader trades currencies for me and my investors and are doing very nicely. 19.2% return for our investors last year.
Martin,
I have been following your advice for years, starting way before the commencement of the deleveraging process that is part of the present credit crisis. One thing that I have seen over and over again is that markets never move in a straight line up or down, and despite the perceived sense of optimism today, the underlying economic weakness as part of the corrective process continues unabated. Those who invest in free markets realize that it is virtually impossible to pick the bottom to buy or the top to sell. However over the long haul, the investor with the correct appreciation of the trend in the overall cycle will make those investment decisions that produce profitable results, independent of the short term view, and frequently against popular opinion. Your wise advise based on years of market study and personal experience continues to be a guiding light through the good as well as bad times that define the markets. Keep up your good work!!
The prudent actions I am engaging in are to not buy anything that this administration has its hands on. The Chrysler bully out by the President Obama has convinced me his understanding of unintended consequences is on the level of a 5 year old riding a bull in a china shop. Why the heck anyone would want to buy any toxic asset knowing the government might change the rules in the future or why anyone would loan money to any bank which has tarp money is far beyond my reasoning. I did buy Ford at less than half its current price the moment I saw the administration getting involved in the other two companies because no government endevour into private enterprise outside of the RFC which was run by an smart businessman, Jesse Jones has ever managed to do anything as good as a competing private company.
I do appreciate your columns as they have helped me to step aside and see with clear realism the truth of the bearishness of the depression we are now in. Like agora financial and bill bonner, you are a realist. Too bad we don’t have an administration which is.
? Martin, I am heavy into gold stocks in 2 gold – silver producing companys with lots of reserves and I’m retired. I don’t understand why these stocks do not move up when gold is over $900.00 per ounce and it’s real money? Should I be putting my little nest egg some place else? or do I just sit and wait it out.
Martin
As Christian, certain things that fear me more than anything is not pleasing the Lord. In the bible Proverb 28:20 stated “A faithful man will be richly blessed, but one eager to get rich will not go unpunished.” and Proverb 28:22 “A stingy man is eager to get rich and is unaware the proverty awaits him.”
I’m 50 and I’ve been your subscriber of Safe Money for over 15 years and to date I’m almost debt free with only the mortgage payments likely for the next 30 years. I’m praying that the small $3000 investment I have left in gold and oil shares will appreciate much enough soon to keep us above and beyond. I believe those like you and your staff who spent a lifetime independently looking out for the innocent investors and warning us from trouble ahead is richly blessed! Keep up the good work!
I read all 92 comments, and I read Martin Weiss’ article, “Banking Bailouts Will Prolong America’s Second Great Depression” and related comments. I agree with a number of contributors – as follows: Cole – sending our jobs overseas is foolish, and has made our economy unhealthy; Insko – let the businesses and banks that make bad decisions fail – others will pick up the assets and do it right; Gough – Whole economic meltdown was intentional and caused by the Federal Reserve and certain large banks; Rodriquez – I do not believe Washington because they are not telling the American people the truth; Plimpton – This has all been planned for decades; Hyland – I have no trust in our reps in Washington; Brianh – Government posting misleading data on employment, GDP, and the stress test, and manipulating Dow index stocks; Bill – the worst is yet to come; Leonard – We spend too much on wars, social programss such as welfare and foreign aid with no return on these investments. Poor government management … devalue the dollar … it will be worthless … mismanagement of tax payer money. AL – The war in Iraq was one of the key elements in our economic collapse … total failure … to warn the nation that we were totally over-extended.
President Dweight Eisenhower warned the nation about the predatory military-industrial complex, and John F. Kennedy learned about it first-hand after he tried to pull us out of Viet Nam, and then withheld air cover for the Bay-of-Pigs invasion; two years later he paid the ultimate price for interferring. Multi-national corporations have removed any doubt that they would sacrifice the interests of any group of US citizens in order to increase their profits – starting with overseas purchases of steel about fifty years ago. Now such purchases have expanded greatly, and many, many jobs and much technology have been sent from America to – of all places – COMMUNIST China. A large majority of all commodities to be purchased in most retail stores now originate from China. Isn’t Communism still a bad form of government – not compatible with democracies and freedom? The Weiss article about “Banking Bailouts” states that the “debt crises is much greater than the government has reported, and that 1,568 banks (much more than FDIC list of 252) are at risk of failure”. That article also stated that the U.S. government has committed $12.7 trillion to the bail-out effort, but it also states, American households have already lost $12.9 trillion in wealth”, and that “millions are losing their jobs.” Surely all those banks aren’t going under because of failures only in the home loan market. This writer inspects equipment being built for chemical plants and oil refineries, and several acquaintances in the same line of work had to find other occupations in 1998 because so much of that type of manufacture had been sent overseas. This writer is convinced that Americans can’t pay their mortgages and other obligations because their jobs have all been sent elsewhere. While everyone was rushing about trying to figure out how to rescue the economy – and the home loan business in particular – who, if anyone, suggested bringing our jobs back, or at least levying an import tax to protect products made in the USA? The mainstream media would not mention recovering our jobs because the “news” is controlled by the wealthy friends of the people who elected to engage in economic treason in the first place. Congress and the White House allowed and facilitated the theft of our jobs because they have been paid-off or threatened by the corporations sending the jobs overseas. Anthrax letters get everyone’s attention – as well as the promise of victory or defeat in the next election.
And I am yet to understand why any particular business that is mis-managed to the extent that it goes broke should be “bailed out” without
FIRST replacing (and punishing where appropriate) those persons who mis-managed it, and set up controls to prevent further mis-management. It is certainly foolish to hand more money to persons who have proven that they cannot manage properly!!! Except for the fact that the people who have decided to hand $$Billions to the bad managers already had a long-standing relationship with the bad managers – where is the logic in the give-aways that have occurred? Honor among thieves?
Isn’t it interesting how the banking stocks continue to rally in the face of negative new.
Just maybe these crooks are using our TARP funds to buy back their outstanding shares at rock bottom prices which is also leading this bear market rally. Technically they had to take a stand in March or risk the market collapsing down into the 4300 range.
So much for a FREE Market!!
I try to do what is right – I’ve been retired for the past seven tears, I’ve had no car payments for over 15 years, I paid off the house mortgage last November and carry no credit card debt. I read your book and was impressed. My IRA was declining $2-3,000 per month (I now have slightly less than $100,000) and took my investments out of an S&P Index and put them into a mutual fund money market – I am slowly transferring this into short term treasuries.
Since doing this, the S&P has gone up 30%!!! I missed out on an opportunity to increase my IRA by $30,000.
Do I stay with short term treasuries and wait for the market to come down to me or should I invest in something else? Please comment.
As an investment and tax advisor who is serving the middle American market, I would like to extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to you for the time and effort as well as expenses underwritten by you and your organization in order to bring your message to investors and concerned citizens alike. Somehow we must develop the collective will to influence our leaders to make the right decisions which are based upon common sense and the long-term good of this country rather than politically expedient “solutions” which only compound our problems into the future,thereby adding massive debt burdens on our children and grandchildren.
Given the current approach by our so-called leadership, I see no easy way out of our dilemma. I am enraged at the greed and short-sightedness of Wall Street and our mega banks, to say nothing of their lack of concern regarding the proper exercise of their fiduciary responsibilities to the public at large. I am absolutely against any form of corporate welfare which is used to reward poor judgment and rank stupidity. I believe that unprecedented fraud has been committed in many quarters of our financial services sector, the consequences of which, if permitted to continue without appropriate corrective measures by those responsible for oversight and enforcement of regulations intended to protect the public, will tear the social fabric to shreds and will literally sow the seeds for revolution in this country. You may not agree with that assessment, but many of my friends and colleagues share similar concerns and conclusions.
The outgrowth of the situation which has been building for several generations has more than political and economic roots. I see a loss of our moral compass on the part of our institutions and our leadership across the boards. Perhaps the best way to correct those deficiencies is to suffer the consequences of our collective and individual folly. I am firmly convinced that this is inevitable despite the so-called “fixes” which are initiated in Washington, D.C.
The insiders who control the levers of influence and ultimate power will try to prevail by hook or crook (What else is new???), and the misinformation put forth to cover their tracks will no doubt do substantial damage to the vast nuimbers who are not empowered to protect themselves. My problem in all of this is to adequately define both short-term tactics coupled with long-term strategies which provide some measure of protection for my family and those who have relied on my judgment as an investment advisor.
Although this rally may be a bear market rally, I feel its also because of two deveopments.
Interest rates are so low that there is no point keeping money in a bank. The Govt wants you to spend your money, and has therefore dropped it to near zero. So people have invested in the stock market.
Also with trillions being poured to save the American economy, even if a small part finds its way into stocks, it could have helped this rally. Bush had started this trillion dollar spending, due to the two wars.
Spending trillions wil only help the rich get richer, as its only the companies with powerful connections, that will have access to these bailout funds. A fraction will trickle down to those who are struggling to make ends meet.
It surprises me that the Govt has brought rates down to near zero. It has been careless spending that caused this bubble to burst. The Govt should be encouraging savings. Also by destroying interest rates, the Govt is setting a precedent to reckless spenders, that they can have access to other people’s savings, and pay practically nothing for it.
I’m a newbie to this whole financial stuff. Since November I’ve been receiving your daily e-mails, along with a small handful of others. It seems to always resonate with me — maybe I’m a born fiscal conservative or something. Anyway, I’ve been feeling that there is so much “spin” on the news. Yesterday, for example, the news report said that “at least three of the 19 banks” have passed the stress tests; could have said “so far only three of the 19″ — let’s face it, 3 out of 19, some of whom have already received TARP money, ain’t worth shouting about. Some company earnings losses, though huge are still “beating estimates”, which were probably really low AND lots of workers got laid off to even hit those numbers. Those laid-off workers aren’t “lagging indicators”, they’re people with bills to pay and now on government assistance. The reduction in new unemployed numbers is good, but those numbers don’t replace the ones from last month but are added on to an existing record number. I’m new at this and humbly admit that I could be wrong. I pray for you and all your readers that we have the wisdom to navigate these times and know the truth. Many, many thanks.
Martin,
Thank you for your leadership and the advise you offer in these troubling times. I am a subscriber of “Safe Money report” and look forward to reading it each month. However, perhaps I have not subscribed to the report I should have.
I, like you and your staff believe we have been experiencing a collapse of our financial fortunately system and face even larger problems in the future. Fortunately I was out of the market before it started to fall apart and lost nothing. However, I have been invested in Real Estate rental housing, which I am presently trying to sell.
The only investments I have are the rental properties, the items in your “Safe Money Model Portfolio” and a strong cash position. I have followed your advice in “Safe Money Reports” and will continue doing so. I feel one cannot have safety and high interest returns at this time, which doesn’t bother me, but I would like to have a bit of monthly income.
My question to you is, are there any ways a person on social security, can receive safe interest, in this economy, other than treasury Bills?
Thank you
I’ve found this very interesting from this side of the ‘pond’ (UK). The debate does raise issues for those who live outside the USA. Is suspect that what is applicable in the USA is equally applicable in the UK – if not elsewhere. I watch with interest and concern.
Weak demand in the treasury auction on 5/7/09 should be a big red flag to lots of investors. Government had to pay greater interest than expected in the sale of 30 year treasuries. Is this a signal that it’s going to be harder for Washington to finance its ambitious economic recovery plan? Don’t we all know that rates can only head higher while taxes continue to rise.
As an aside: I read a news story yesterday that mentioned pending legislation that would place a “head tax” on livestock (such as cows, sheep, pigs, horses that all release methane gas as flatulence) being raised by farmers to “assist” with the fight against global warming. I’m not kidding, this story really was an AP wire story. The proposed tax would impose $25-$125 per animal obligation on farmers and raisers of livestock . This country is nutso.
I do beleave all of your readers are right…The market may go up or down…but unless you know how to read the future, the best thing to do is got out of the market…I think that, as we have seen in the past, Oct. or Nov. will be when the big drop will come…
Keep up the good work…and thanks for everything..
JHM
Thank you Martin for You and Your Team Who are our Eyes,and Ears among the The Seducers of time past and now present. Economic Police to keep on eye the Financial Crooks and sound the alarm for truthful Investors. I believe the biggest crooks are not in the Prisons where they should be and yet they are still out there peddeling their wares and no punishments, slap on the wrist ” and still they have your money out in some foreign land where i believe the IRS is finally going after them. It’s not that am a IRS Fan !!! no sir, meantime Mr. Martin thanks for the insights. Continue the good oversight for us. Bro. Joe
Dear Mr. Weiss,
I have been watching you for about 2 years trying to figure out if i should make the leap or not. I have noticed one giant thing! YOU ARE NEVER wrong in your predicitons. You are probably wondering why if i beleive this, I havent made the leap..easy..CHICKEN. I dont have the faintest clue about what to do or how to do it. I did finally get the books that you were telling us about and have almost fisined them, It sure did turn on some ligt bulbs in the basement. Because of your books and the enligteneing information, the leap is near.
A special thank you for your interest and involvement in supporting homeless children and their parents.
I have a question concerning this leap. I havent noticed anything in the way of comments regarding SILVER. for whatever reason i feel that it might be worth a run and the nagging thought continues. Will you please comment on that.
Thank you again,
M Scott
Hang-in there. I believe you are on target, as humanly possible, under these circumstances. One’s ability to objectively prioritize and simultaneously maintain a clear view of both the Forest and Tree’s, whilst not getting lost in the tree’s, is how I view what you are doing. Hang in there!
I want my Beautiful Country Back, and I, like you, will fight for it.
Could you please give your review of the gov’t.s just published stress test for the banks???? It seems to me the banks “CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS’ were not included. I understand CDS total 62trillion and many of the banks mentioned as having no problem such as JP MORGAN have 3/1 risk???? When should i start shorting them……..
The stock market gains are good, but hellish to see the cause of these price rises –
Put down to .
‘The Bank stress data was better than expected. Assisted with, the US Government declaring a policy of not wanting to natiionalise the very institutions that through greed , have wrecked the global economy!’
It just about highlights the mentality currently prevailing in financial centres. One suspects the bandit bankers are at it again in the background. Hell, we still are not seeing transparency, but then, bankers have never been in the forefront of this desirable element. A facet normally demanded across other businesses.
Here in UK another ‘mob’ have also been unfrocked, as the methods our politicians have been using to extract tax payers cream, are published. Now no one would suggest they, the leading lights running the UK,- are doing anything wrong. Must be within the regulations, what has been taking place!
However had an ordinary worker, manager done some of the ‘cracks’, currently being
spread over the media. The culprits would have been sacked, with no appeal expected before an employment tribunal. In my book plus many others – the practices that have been taking place are not kosher.
Bankers have for decades massaged the figures.What makes us believe anything has now changed? Perhaps one item – More losses are being diisclosed. Much more still to come.
SamWoe
Is there truth to rumor that IMF is going to sell all its gold and if so, what will be effect on GLD and bullion?
Martin,
It is almost impossible for me to believe that the hype being pushed by both the Wall Street Cheerleaders and the Government is anything more than that. The government has been orchestrating nothing more than a circus. “You can fool all of the people some of the time and all of the people some of the time.” PT Barnum. The stock market has to crash again, one the hype has run its course.
But I am still struggling as to which is the best strategy to make the best of this situation. One side of me feels like the best investment is to go long on commodities and follow Larry Edison’s advise, buy gold, mining shares, natural resources while they are still cheap. The other side says to go short with inverse ETF’s on selected stocks from USA and Europe segments. Also start investing long in Asia companies.
Now I am frozen, unable to decide to move in either direction, staying completely away from the market like it was the plague or swine flu.
I really think the USA is years away from recovery, if indeed the USA ever recovers to its former glory. I have witnessed a complete evaporation of manufacturing jobs in the USA over the past 20 years and while serving as an international executive, have watched those USA high paying jobs move to Asia (at much, much lower wage levels). They are never coming back to the USA. So I do not know why anyone thinks that government stimulus and pumping money into losers like GM and Chrysler is going to do any long term good. It will only further increase the national debt, with fewer and fewer middle and high wage earners to be able to pay it through taxes.
Just as England once was on top of the global economy, now is the time for the USA to start its permanent decline while China emerges as the #1 global economy over the next decade.
I feel some of us must ride this optomistic wave as long as we can. For some of us who’s assets have dwindled nearly 50%, what else can we do. As a retiree I unfortunately live on Social Security and my market earnings. At this point if we sit on the sidelines, what good will it do?
I have switched to trading currencies thru EVERBANK—- The only stocks I own are Chinese stocks purchased on our stock market. Any cimments???????? Bob
I have made a small amount of money,($20,000),this year from commodities. At the moment I am sitting out, and earning approximately 1% interest on my portfolio, from my Bank, while watching the spectacle unfold in the markets. I firmly believe that everyone is gifted in many fields, and “NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO USE THAT GIFT”, to create NEW TECHNOLOGIES, that in turn will create employment for millions of people around the world. In doing so this will give future generations the ability to continue in our foot steps, and at the same time eliminate much of the current adverse pollution we find around our Globe. As the Worlds Population increases approximately 75 million people per year, we have no alternative but to adopt to change. Sincerely, **Noel**
I think that the statements made by R.S about the demise of the U.S. as the #1 economy in the world are spot on accurate. It is so sad to see that the greed, avarice, and collusion of the D.C. politicians, Wallstreet and our central bankers, will ultimately cause and is currently causing untold suffering for a huge portion of the worlds population. Case in point, yesterday there was an article in the WSJ stating that the NY Fed Chairman, Stephen Freidman has resigned. Evidently he got his hand caught in Goldman Sachs cookie jar. He purchased 52,000 shares of Goldman between Dec and Jan at $67/sh to $80/sh. This was during a period when Goldman Sachs was in some pretty intense negotiations with the Fed. Anyhow, his fortuitus purchase has netted him about $3,000,000 in 4 months. Not bad, that is if you can live with yourself as Iam sure he can.
Martin, I need to get off my soapbox and answer your question Which I believe asked if this rally is the real deal. when I think about the “Green Shoots” that are emerging I immeadiately think of the color green which then makes m think of the Emerald Island and that in turn makes me think of leprechauns. Leprechauns in turn, makes me think of pots of gold at the end of the rainbow. Which is what investors will most likely end up with if they buy into this market, absolutely nothing! THe list of systemic problems within our economy, as well as the world economy are simply overwhelming these economies. In the U.S. alone, if you add the National debt to the unfunded liabilities associated with Medicare and Social Security, not even mentioning the promises made to stabilize the current economic fiasco, you are looking at liabilities north of $60,000,000,000,000. That my friends is a chunk of change.
In these uncertain financial times I feel the best
resource is in the investment of precious metals.
They probably provide the best of financial security.
I want to know more about the effects of the trillions of dollars in derivatives. Is the US government in a catch 22 situation feeling like they are forced to rescue the gigantic toxic businesses because of the many derivatives that are on their books?
i want to add my appreciation to the comments of the first blogger above .. i too think what you are saying and offering is unique, a sole sound voice —my great problem is being in England, and without the skills to invest independently of my broker … i keep sending him your views, the opposite of his optimistic ill-informed analysis, and still he keeps to his old bad practices. I feel caught between your wisdom, and my own disempowered de-skilled position – i’ve only inherited stocks, never bought any myself, and find myself wishing i could come into your offices in the States for quality advice. But at least i really value a well informed and historically driven view, impassioned by your father. You really are a beacon of ethical intelligence. Thankyou.
AS DANDY DON USED TO SING ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ‘TURN OUT THE LIGHTS THE PARTYS OVER’
you have very interesting reading, and as far as the market reaction as it is right now, i do not see what is driving it higher. there is no good indicators that business,financials, housing, or emplyment has corrected in any way to drive the market higher.i sure appreciate reading your material and your truthfulness about your ideas on the economy.
Dr. Weiss,
Thanks for your Depression Survival Guide book. I have sent copies to several of my friends, one of which is a hedge fund manager. So many books of this type are what I view as incomplete, only dealing with one or two aspects of the topic. Your book, thankfully, is a much more complete and holistic including recommended steps of action for use to build your personal plan. As you suggested in the book, in this recent rally, I used the increase to sell off less attractive holdings and moved them into investments which are part of my new plan. Thanks again for sharing your experiences and that of your father’s. Well done!
I am concerned about my bonds, whether to keep them ot sell them and which ones to keep or sell.
Hello Mr Weiss and company,
I want to express my graditude for having subscribed to Safe Money Report.
I have limited funds but digest everything. Yours is the only one telling it like it is.
Thanks again,
Richard
As a technician, I realize that “V” bottoms are possible, but I doubt that we will have one here. There is, presumably,a lot of bad news to come from the banks. Hopefully, we will be made to understand why the guys who caused most of this are still running things. Let them take their millions and move their club to another venue. If they could be prosecuted for fraud, good. There are plenty of competent people to run banks, despite the so-called intricacies of the market relationships and while we’re at it, if too big to fail has any relevance, why were these “too big” institutions picking up huge failed institutions with someone else s money so they could squeeze out more easy money from these organizations, i.e., ML, Wachovia, Wash. Mut., etc., by using their assets, already in place, while the crap is swept under the rug?
Anyway, there will be a retracement of this rally and an opportunity to get back in. I am liquidating the last of my stock related positions on this rally and will continue to trade futures on the Dow and the S & P, as well as gold, oil, copper, and T-bonds. There will probably be a major short position in the T-bond futures to be taken, if it has not already started.
All for now. Harvey
That quote comes from 1Thes 5:3, interesting you brought that up, but the quote goes on ” …and they will by no means escape.” This actually references the destruction of 3 systems not just the economy. As far as gold-here’s something to think over-”Into the streets they will throw their very silver and an abhorrent thing their own gold will become …” Ez 7:19.
I do enjoy reading your newsletters. They are very informative and intuitive.
We know that there are a few very special people that are chosen to guide the rest of us to safety. You and your Father have clearly been chosen to do so. I thank you for being that trusted beam of integrity for those of us who desparately need an honest soul to help us. I thank your Father and Mother for have the good sense to create you and instill the ethics so lacking today. Foremost, I thank you for providing a serious avenue of advice and assessment aimed at individuals and based upon informed decision-making rather than an advantageous business model.
I did not have enough money to afford your Contrarian Fund, as much as I wished to have and be able to participate. But you honestly refunded the money ( during your stated period of refund), and continue to keep me informed. You are the ONLY business to do so that I have come across. And as silly as this sounds, you provided sincere integrity to my short-comings of being able to participate in the Million Dollar Contrarian Fund. I hope all of the students involved in you special school program realize that the true measure of an individual is the unfettered assistance that individual is willing to provide to another individual. Your Father and Mother instilled timeless values—plus I like your Father’s moxey.
Again, profound appreciation for your kindness and generousity,
Nancy Ironnside
It used to be that a market was made for users and producers of materials to fix a price where they would be able to plan their production costs accordingly around their contracted values. It turned into a hideous nightmare of people buying indexes that are completely non-tangible entities mostly resembling Las Vegas slot machines.
We created a mafia casino economy, and the current mafia boss is our President!
Did you know that the oil market has been trading 4 times the volume of contracts as oil needed in the entire world? That is what caused enormous boom bust scenerios. Like the tulip bulb mania of Europe in the 1600’s.
Money is a tool to fertilize capitalism and create a wonderful life of production and consumption for its citizens. S&L’s were associations of depositors providing money to create home loans in local communities. When did collateralized debt obligations start up? It was like having drug dealers running the pharmacy.
When people decide that we will settle for a good life instead of everyone trying to be Donald Trump, that’s when we can all get back to work and our boring world of supply and demand. I have five kids ages 8 to 21 and I encouraged the older ones to take business classes in college. But are they teaching them about making economics work right or “bet the farm” reckless behavior?
I wish you could teach the younger people about how the system is supposed to run.
Thank you for the courage to say what you do.
We took your advice. Changed our bank from a C- Bank to a B+ Bank. I work for the US Government and invest all that I can in our TSP (401-K) and was heavily invested in the stock market until 2006 when I transferred 100% of my savings in this account $140,000 into the guaranteed (g fund) short term t-bills account. My account has grown very slowly but I did not lose like so many others did. Our smaller 401K accounts from previous jobs are in short term T-Bills and CD’s (under $10,000 at B+ Bank).
We encouraged our daughter to leave her D+ Bank for the B+ bank that we changed to, and she has. Our neice works for the D+ Bank and we explained the Banking situation to her but she believes their story hook, line and sinker. A friend has invested her inheritance in CD’s about $1,500,000 at a good rate of return in an E rated Bank. I explained your book and gave her the web site for FDIC ratings, but her banker said that even though the FDIC was auditing his Bank at this time that her money is safe and she beleived him.
I can sleep with myself for trying to help others. I hope the deceived ones survive the inevitable failure of our economy. I am not comfortable with our economic position but feel we have taken the steps that you advise on our limited means. My job is as stable as any, but who knows what is truly stable.
Thanks for listening.
Dr. Weiss,
I am an investment advisor in Toronto and have been reading your material along with many other “experts” over a long period of time. In my side of the business there is always someone who can put forth a case for the opposite view. Last Fall when the markets were imploding, I started to pay particular attention to you and the communication you send out. I soon realized that you have been right far too many times to lump your comments in with all the others. I have become a believer and anticipate your missives.
For my clients, I am employing guarantees within investment portfolios and for the very first time, providing exposure to gold bullion as an asset class. I am also anticipating inflation and recommending real return bonds which in the US are knows as TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). We also have a product called segregated funds which are like mutual funds offered through life insurance companies. They provide a capital guarantee while still allowing exposure to market based investments.
Dr. Weiss:
1. Thank you for advising me to move to safety when Dow was at 13,200. I saved a ton. Sometimes I take personal credit when I tell people how “prophetic” I was and I feel guilty for that. Please accept my apology.
2. From the bottom of my heart I believe you and your staff are looking out for our best interests and not out just to earn a buck. I sense you are genuine person and that’s hard to find these days.
3. I, too, am a bear and feel that this latest “rally” is just a last-ditch effort to drain a golden calf (since we’ve been speaking Biblically today)..
4. I’m a little thankful for a recession. I can now blame “money’s tight” for not throwing the latest and greatest bday party for my kids or not getting the hottest “it” bag. I can tuck that money into savings and frugality is the new black. I wonder if the pundits realize some of us WANT a breather..
5. We’re gonna see a BIG fall, soon. It’s a perfect storm out there and just the thought of having some money back in the stock market makes me feel queezy. Say yes to inverse ETF’s.
God bless you, Martin. Have a great day.
i am a senior citizen,dependent on the market for much of my income. i sold what i could but cannot earn enough in gic,s or any bank. i continue to receive div’d from most of my holdings,;
my experience over fifty years leads me to agree with you that the situation is far from over
i feel stuck-no where to turn
I am a Canadian resident who reads your newsletter regularly. I did not sign up for you contraian report as I felt that it was tailored to the american Markets. I utilize your info to help keep an eye on the bigger picture, and am ready for a bear market.
Thanks!
Martin
I’m a strong believer in your views, even though from far away here in New Zealand.
Our economy is doing a bit better than most, but not for long I think. Along with Spain and Ireland we are the world’s most indebted in terms of consumer borrowings. The real estate bubble was much greater here than in the US or the UK, and the consequences have yet to really hit – that lies ahead.
There is another aspect to this. I refer to the long wave Kondratiev cycle where every 70 years or so, after a long global upwave, there is a massive and prolonged downturn. I suspect we are in the early stages of that now. Nikolai Kondratiev, in 1926, published a paper in the Soviet Union, detailing what he thought was evidence of these long wave cycles. Three year later, the Great Depression began. Not all economists accept his work, but I believe he will be proven right again.
There is still too much debt to be dealt with ie credit swaps, deriatives, toxic bundles etc and although there is a certain amount of economic expansion built into our system , inventories are about exhausted, the economy will appear to be improving. But it will be spinning its wheels. Improvement in our exports and imports will reflect real growth. The stock market will be viotile with a lot of side motion. It will not be nice. 3 yrs. I will continue to buy,limitedly,when I see a bargain like Goldman Sachs a real money mchine. Warren Buffet agrees with me too. I am an 88 yr. old stock market neophyte, heck what do I know?
Confusion and fear are in charge these days!
Should we be investing in commodities while they are still affordable? Are we in a commodities up cycle/bull market and a stock down cycle/bear market? Is the commodity market where we should be investing or should we park on the sidelines? I continue to hear conflicting views which are seriously muddying the waters and causing a paralysis of analysis. This indecisiveness is a serious detriment to the economy since it encourages folks to sit on the sidelines doing nothing.
As the housing market shores up will we attain a bottom which will then provide a launching pad for normal prosperity?
What insidious part are the derivatives playing in this downturn? Are they the real problem for this economic disaster? We do not hear much about their part in what is going on with this economic downturn?
Is it a conspiracy of some sort by the power money?
Dear Martin: I bought your latest book, but had to study to become a certified Immunization pharmacist, and now anticipate reading it. I enjoyed an article on Silver, Yeltsen, Rhodium, espionage, et. al. that referred to Martin Weiss in the article. Years ago I got a series 7, and insurance licences, but gave them up for a pharmacist license. I have spent lots on market timing news letters, time share condominiums, etc while I should have been paying down debt. Many of the financial newsletter teaser adds still reach my e-mail box, as do get rich quick letters to my mail box. Like credit card offers that come in the mail they are worthless to me, but I have the tenacity to keep reading. In retrospect if I have paid down debt, instead of paying for advise from financial news letters, and paying expensive time share contracts like the Mayan Palace, I could have been debt free. Right now I am addicted to reading financial news letter. My sense of trading cheap stocks seeking a 10 bagger has lost more of my investment capital than this bear market claimed though. My instincts about where America was headed had me out of the market 2 years ago. Precious metals were rising so I got a stash. Able to post a few modest gains in my 401K, whew! I have sustained some modest losses in my personal trading account using inverse ETF this week in the bank stocks, and real estate stocks. My broker even cut me off from naked puts and calls. I could buy some stocks in gold and silver mining stocks on the toronto exchange from that account, or just pay down debt. I’m more bullish on silver than gold stocks. USA citizens are addicted to oil, and credit cards, but they misuse credit cards, so I’m more bullish on oil. I am looking for a wild cards oil stock that I can buy and hold with a 50% stop loss. I don’t have time to day trade though, because I have to work for a living. Pension-less at 58, I need a retirement portfolio that can move ahead with energy, and here I sit on the sidelines scared of the recession, or with gitters when I do make a move in only to move back out prematurely. Why can’t I get it right. With Montanans buying guns, I should have bought Ruger! Thank you for having this forum, presenting petitions to Washington, and promoting your books and videos. Speaking of videos, I wanted to tune in to your videos, but with a copper line and dial up I cannot download much of anything. Which ones do you suggest? I found out I can download at the high school library. God Bless you and yours. George Rural UP Michigan
“Since as investors, our objective is to buy low and sell high . . .”
Buying low and selling high is admirable enough but I associate that with traders, not investors. Don’t investors buy for the long term? And for reasons in addition to capital gains? Such as sustainable yields?
If this your desctiption of investors, what is you definition of traders?
Whatever, you put out a lot of good information and opinion.
I believe in the 30 year cycle for commodities. We are in the early years of the bull cycle, which should equate to large gains for gold, silver, copper, oil and agricultural commodities for many years to come. I am not real sure just what the safest way to play this is. I am told that the GLD and SLV are not required to be subject to audit and lease their inventory to COT to short these commodities. I have been advised that GTU and CEF are better alternatives. What is your opinion?
You are advocating holding inverse ETF’s. I bought SKF per your recommendation when it dropped to $92.00+. What should I do now? I’d appreciate your advice. Thank you.
I feel frantic not knowing which way to turn and not knowing how I can follow your advice. I long for the days when there were no 401’s, IRA’s etc. and one was more in control of his/her own money. I am retired and my husband is in his last year to work. My state deferred compensation account (-like a 401) does not give choices of Treasury certificates although it does offer a TIPS Fund. SEveral of the funds in this Deferred Compensation Account are not subject to being regulated by our Securities and Exchange Commission (Barclay’s Money Market, a Barclay’s Stock Fund and a couple of other funds). My cash savings in my Traditional IRA and Roth brokerage accouts cannot be invested in brokerage Money Market funds because they were not invested in these funds on September 19, 2008, and would not be covered by the Treeasury guarantee. Through my brokerage I mainly have the choices of investing in stocks, or brokered CD”S at poorly rated banks with poor rates of return. My spouses retirement funds are in the Federal Government TSP account. He has some money in the G Fund, F Fund, and a considereable amount (for us that is) in C (stock) fund. We wonder if we should move everything from the F and C funds into the G fund. I am terrified after working all my life, living modestly and now seeing our life’s savings disappeariing through the devaluation of the dollar and the decline in value of the other investments.
Martin,
Remember the silver and gold (frenzy), including coins, in the late 70s and early 80s. Randy Campbell was the president of the Palm Beach Coin Club…he was an expert in grading silver dollars and was HOT on mirror-faced specimens. He was a good friend of mine and through him, I met you. If you know of Randy’s where-abouts, please let me know; it will make he and me happy.
Fred Hall
I am a trend follower, both long term trend and short term trend ( of cause , by use different account).
Market has been up for 8 weeks. I think when a trend starts, it will last for a certain time. If the trend want to change direction, it will let us know—it will decelerated, goes flat, and then gradually goes to the opposite direction and accelerates ….
Now from the day chart, we haven’t seen the up trend decelerates, so I still holding my long positions.
In the short term chart, such as 30 min chart, I have seen many time direction change in past two months—– a strong up trend period on day chart.
Any trend must end and change direction.
My question is for current situation, from fundamental side, what and when will make the up trend reverse. Please advise me.
Dear Dr. Weiss, I know you are right and we will see the market decline soon. As the government props up the banks they are driving down the inverse recommendations you and others are recommending. I think faz and long term call options in FAZ gives you the time and best bang for the buck. If the government causes a short sqeeze and make the banks go higher next week I think Friday will be a good day to buy faz and long term options. I think oil and gold look good too.
I owe alot of my knowledge to you and the presentations you give. I thank you for being an honest and giving person. Your book is great. I will log into your websites to anticipate buying bonds and dividend stocks as I am getting near retirement. Thank you again for all your help. Karl
Martin
I always go to your articles, to get your thoughts. My concern is am I listening to much to the negativity, or listening to all the cautious positive speek on tv. Losing money is painful, not being invested when there is a bull run, is equally painful. Banks have destroyed this economy and gotten their bail out money. Now they have a second chance to make profits (at our expense) .They just may make it work for a year or so. Long term investing seems to be over. HELP
Because of the up-trend and confidence in the Market lately, I was able to sell a corporate bond that had been completely non-liquid, unsellable, since last October. I got 98.2 cents on the dollar. This was a way that have used the Market lately.
Although I have had very little exposure in this volitile stock market, my contacts, friends , and realitives have me convinced me that the pain and hardship has been vastly understated by the general news media in this country. Without sources such as the Weiss’ Blog, a true picture of what the future may hold can not be projected and if you don’t have the most likely scenarios on the table for consideration you can not make good decisions. I am afraid that in an economy that is more and more defined by the good or bad decisions made in Wash. DC we are subject to decision-makers who by all indications do believe their own press. Also, with an eye on being involved in “such historical times”, I fear that our policy makers have become even more blind than normal to the lessons of history revisited. I feel that the huge spike in fuel prices last year tipped the scales to a downturn in the economy. Just like when we didn’t learn from the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 we aren’t developing a coherent energy policy even now and it will play a devastating role in our future economy. Until R & D comes up with a new type of energy there needs to be increased opportunities for drilling our own oil.
You are like the sheep herder keeping his flock safe. I think we all apprciate your comments, boldness to stand up to the FED and tell the truth to the regular investor. Thank you Martin.
What a wonderful concept – “Peace & Safety”!!!
If we are going to borrow Biblical references to explain what is being described as a “Financial Hurricane” and the likelihood is that we are in the midst of the “EYE” of this phenomenon – then wisdom dictates that we should all be seeking a safe harbor or shelter away from the impending ferocity and turbulence it is ultimately going to bring.
But to my mind, more than the analogy of a storm – I would like to respectfully submit another Biblical paradigm – that of Pharaoh’s dream in Egypt of “7 fat and 7 lean cows” which came up from the River Nile…
Joseph – who became the prince of Egypt had enough God-given wisdom and anointing to decipher the full intent and import of the Pharaoh’s dream and was able in the 7 years of “plenty” to make sure that there was enough grain and provisions to be able to survive the 7 years of Depression.
American politicians and institutional leaders including civic, religious and others were asleep at the wheel – as a result was caught completely unaware when the “hurricane” struck.
I agree that men like “Dr. Weiss” and others were “voices in the wilderness” but the clarion call went unheeded and the end-result is the fallout which has occurred and if the predictions are anything to go by – this was the “First Wave” or “Woe” and behold there are two others to follow.
I live in the United Kingdom and on every BLOG* I write – I ask the prima facie question:
“WHO WILL TELL US THE TRUTH?”
I have a relatively complicated but relevant question. With this administration and the congress’s complete disregard for constitutional law and or majority public opinion, what is to stop them from reformulating how wallstreet works at the very core.??
These are strange and disturbing times and I am truely afraid that the capitolist model is being dismantled. I ask this question because I am 39 and I have NO retirement.
The things I have witnessed in the last three months have led me to believe that very soon the only thing I do have, which is property, is in terrible danger of being redistributed. I would greatly appreciate your insight because I have wanted to invest for 5 years now, yet I have not because I pay attention.
Everyone with any bussiness sense is investing in China. America has had its “Day” one could say ” Golden Age ” yet like many great empires of the past they have fallen.
China looks like it will be the next super power. One cannot trust American politics yet what China says China does.
The stock market rally will die a natural death, as what took decades with the big boom, then the crash, can’t be fixed in a few months. The financial tsuanami is coming so only suckers are investing with the idea of massive growth and profits.
Regards
Peter
The DJ can rise another 1000 points, or higher. When the PP Team continues to receive printed paper, the top of a manipulated market becomes difficult to predict. Rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms I think it is best at this stage of the rally to stay on the sidelines because much lower lows lie ahead, and the next declining phase can start at any time. Bear in mind that old adage: Top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers.
Martin
I begin my day with coffee and the articles you and your staff share with us. I’m not wealthy, but you are steering me in the right direction to hang on to what I’ve got
God bless
Hi Martin – I really value your newsletter and the efforts of your team. It is very very hard to find genuinely objective information on the economy and markets – the vast majority of commentators have vested interests or appear under political pressure to tow the line and say the right thing. I live in the UK where it is even harder to get objective commentary. I used to follow Bob Beckman who very sadly died about 18mths ago – I have no doubt you have probably heard of him.
Thanks again and please get up the good work.
Kind regards
Mike White – Portsmouth,England
Current situation reminds me of a joke when a broker asks another how he was doing. ‘Perfect, I sleep like a baby’, he said. ‘Whoa, in times like this, how could u sleep like a baby?’ ‘Well, I wake up during the night, and cry’.
Fundamentals by definition remain fundamentals. Enterprises must produce and sell AT A PROFIT. CAPITAL GROWTH FOLLOWS over time. It does not lead. Recent rallies are putting the cart before the horse. But traders with big balls can still exploit this, but investors can not.
Dear Martin – Thank you, thank you, for your fascinating and so timely “Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” – it’s like the characters right out of the Da Vinci Code, but the wads of cash they’re grabbing for themselves today end with seven or eight zeros! Meanwhile here in the U.K., and Europe, the reality of the recession, aka “downturn”, the unemployed, commercial real estate failures and future inflation, are very hard to discern, amidst the smoke and mirrors of the “war on terror”, and banksters’, politicians’, and “experts’” self-serving lies, or is it just incompetence? What do you guys publish about our contribution to the global predicament?
Thanks again, dear Martin, one day I’ll come and shake your hand – Tom Lucas
Where is the big capitulatio, when everyone who wants out of stocks gets out. I think its still coming. Get ready with inverse etfs. It could be life changing.
What should a prudent investor do? Not swallow everything his stockbroker says “hook, line and sinker,” investigate for himself and think for himself.
Hello Martin,
My comment is that I believe this market is going much, much, higher than almost anyone believes at this moment. I understand WHY we fell so far, so fast, and I also understand that we took the ONLY solution available to us for fixing the problem. This repair job, if one dares to call it that, has gone off without a hitch so far. And I believe it will continue to do well and will climb a wall of worry right on up to new all-time highs. Of course this will take time, it won’t happen overnight.
But once it gets to it’s TOP, will it stay there? No, absolutely not. Our “old” economy has been LEVELED and another, new one, is being RESURRECTED in it’s place. I believe we have seen the END of the capitalist system and this new one is some form of a government CONTROLLED system. Stock prices, have been, and are NOW being, manipulated. And it is being done in a completely ILLEGAL way. The old laws, the old rules on Wall Street, are being BROKEN every day and they are being broken without so much as a single comment from the S.E.C. or any other Govt. agency.
But all this had to be done with FIAT money, and now all that money has to be replaced. They will do this with HIGHER stock prices and it will take MUCH HIGHER prices to accomplish this in my opinion.
But I cannot give market advice, therefore I cannot tell your readers what to do in this market. I can only tell you what I am doing with MY money and I plan on being fully invested throughout this upward swing. JMHO of course.
There are many questions and I hope that your book has the answers as I went out and bought it . I been on the side lines all this time hopeing I’m making the right move and haveing my doubts as the markets keep moving up. I guest I’ll just have to keep puting my faith in you as you been right in the past. Hope you will keep us informed and put us in the right direction so that we can propift from all these things that are happening. good luck & God Bless
Dear Martin,
thanks for your kindness to share with me about your analyze the situation as a whole.
I’m quite sure, that under that crisis lay down mergers that were very haply granted, before. It looks like, globalization may cost us disperse all the States, with Texas on the beginning. To back from those mergers, I do not think it is possible, slippery road.
ZENON SOLOMON
Hi Martin: Our snailmail book deliveries are so slow that I purchased your book at our local book store. My problem is as follows: I have approximately $140K invested in dividend paying stocks that Average over 10%. In addition to social security and a company retirement I am living on the income. If I sell all of the stocks immediately I am losing over $14,000 annually in dividends. What is your solution to my problem?
Hi Martin
What I want to know is, when will the US dollar be devalued?
Currency devaluations usually occur when governments borrow
excessively, print money with abandon and try to spend their way
into popularity or out of trouble. The Weimar Republic, Mexico
Brazil, and Argentina are a few examples of countries where this
has occurred. How has the US avoided devaluing the dollar? The
federal deficit and national debt are mounting daily, the presses at the mint
are smoking from overuse, and the banking system is still shaky as as drunk
in the morning! Surely, the dollar can’t hold up indefinitely? What’s an
investor to do?
I would like to consider to look into some inverse ETFs that charge a very low fee under current circumstance. Bull market is not in sight yet.
Forget emotion or what you think.Go by the chart of what you want to invest in.If it is above the moving average you select buy it.If it drops below the moving average sell it
I feel that peace and safety is not here to stay it is only a safety net put up to keep
us on this side,I will find a way to the other side before the net falls down.
This is not emotion its a gut feeling i`ll stick with that.
Greetings,
I believe the market is a giant ponzie scheme whose strings are pulled by a few . There is no basis why the market should go up now or any time in the future. Debt, Dollar, social and moral disintegration, will not now or ever lead to posperity. Be a boy scout, be prepared. Do you really want to try to time it, while waiting for the rug to be pulled out from under you? Don’t wait for the crowd to figure it out-too late then.
Martin: How will the proposed uptick rule, if enacted, affect investing in inverse ETFs? Thanks
Please direct me to a reliable source, (all beit that you do not have direct information) where I can study in a parallel sence, the direction Canada is going, relative to America.
Bless you for your unselfish committment to truth,
Glen
I am 90 years old. Should I even be in the market? I have an Ameritrade acct. valued at about $130,000 It shows a little loss—about 10%. I’ve managed it about 10 years.
I enjiy itut I sometimes wonder. Thanks.
I am one of your most ardent readers, so it came to me as a surprise when you wrote “Since as investors, our objective is to buy low and sell high …”
Wasn’t that type of speculation on asset value, completely independent of income and cash flow, what caused this real estate and stock market meltdown in the first place? If real estate investors bought properties which provided income, rather than simply speculating on price increases and “flipping”, why would they have needed to fire sale or lose the house to foreclosure?
If banks had been writing mortgages based on the borrower’s TRUE income and ability to afford the payments, rather than arbitrary factors such as appraised value of the house or credit score, wouldn’t we have avoided most of these foreclosures and thus this entire housing mess?
If stock investors bought only stocks of companies which were truly profitable, and stocks which provide a regular cash flow, rather than day trading or skimming based on short-term price speculation, would we have seen the huge stock market crashes of 2000 and 2008?
I don’t have a PhD, but I have been a successful investor based on these fundamentals, and it seems to me that “buy low-sell high” is an obsolete 20th century notion.
The “Peace and Safety” has turned into “Sudden Destruction”!! It’s time to “think for yourself” and be the “black sheep”!!! GET OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET NOW!!! This is a govt inspired rally and a rally for “suckers” to literally suck everybody’s 401k into bankruptcy. The Federal Reserve and the International Bankers are going to raise interest rates and cause hyperinflation!!! They CANNOT keep it at close to 0% forever! They(the govt, Federal Reserve and International Bankers) will NOT and I repeat, will NOT allow the Baby Boomers to retire, we are going into socialized medicine and into FASCISM!!! WAKE UP AND GET OUT NOW BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!!!
My comment is to stock up on food, and basic stuff that stores well for a long time, inflation on food prices is happening now, and you can’t eat paper money when it comes down to it. Right now prices are still pretty cheap, 6 months from now when you really will feel the prices hike due to inflation, eggs for example are up over 40% in the last couple of months, and I use this a tiny example of what the over all spread will be. If you don’t believe it now you will in a few months when the prices will soar. Food you can eat, FRN’s you can’t, dump your paper holdings now while you can, hold physical gold and silver, do not store either metals in a bank safety deposit box. Remember the banking holiday of the 30’s? I wouldn’t put it past the government to start confiscation of both yet again, and then pay one back with more worthless paper FRN’s, most likely to renamed into yet another ponzi scheme paper game. Here’s a good tip, it sounds stupid, but all those store coupons for food products can add up to real savings, use them as often as you can, get a Costco membership buy wholesale when you can, buy in bulk, start vacuum packing frozen meat to improve it’s shelf life, If your a hunter buy ammo now if you can even find it, it’s scarce right now for a reason, and it’s not because people are planning on going hunting either.
Thank you for your insight Dr. Weiss. I am reading your book and following your daily email messages. As I followed the birth of your new million dollar investment program, it became clear that I am not financially qualified to accept your offer to join in the great experiment. I will continue to follow your news to see how it all turns out. Thank you. Bob Greenlaw
I am lost in space. All the opinions and bandwagons. I agree with the philosophy here up to a point. Where I get lost is we are heading for, or in, a depression and during those times there is no money to spend by us unfortunates. Why? You know all the reasons. My parents taught me the reality of 1929 and on. No money, no jobs and etc. And the signs are already there… How can inflation take off when nobody buys? Who will be buying GLD?
Aren’t most of the bailout monies in reserves? If a derivative debt goes bad do the monies close the debt as a wash with net increase of no additional monies in circulation putting a damper on inflation? Doen’t this translate into increased national debt and devaluation?
We either get this right or we are all doomed.
Thx,
Vic