What are your forecasts for 2010?
Where will the greatest profit opportunities be?
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Good luck and God bless!
Martin
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{ 45 comments… read them below or add one }
I think it will be a bull market till the end of the year because government is trying to get our tax money as much as possible.
Thank you for doing this for all your readers!
The recession will continue beyond 2010. It will be years until the unemployment gets down to normal. The past “ponzi” economy created too many motgage brokers, real estate agents, construction workers and all the support services for them. These jobs should never have existed and probably never will again. They all need to be retrained to do something useful.
Without “full employment” there can be no recovery. The market will continue to look good on faith in government cures, but should fall by end of year.
What will the new year bring?
Thank you so much I have eliminated all but 5 investment letters over the last 12 years… 3 are you or your guys and 2 others…Yours, due to amazing accuracy, is at the top of my list…now if my husband would get on board and away from our broker who still has him by the neck…we might save our future…my personal portfolio tho small is still up 350% past 6 years. Ive sent many a friend your way as I trust you and your team like family…Thanks Martin..
The steady movement to Gold has been going on for some time. I began recommending it as a secure hedge, in 2004 when Bush got re-elected, as I felt the American market and markets in general, were already excessively overheated and asset valuation and liquidity factors were “askew.” I did not believe that Bushs’ Financial team understood the dangers at that time, and were still committed to continuing the foolish policies of “Trickle down” free market economics, that caused the overheating. This, together with the wacky price to earnings ratios in the general stock markets in the older economies, was a clear indication that something had to give! I do not however believe that further exuberance is warranted in the gold market at this time, and until currency matters and trade protocols are redefined by the G20, I would advise anyone against further excessive puts into Gold. I think we have reached, or are very close to the top of this current trend, as “loose” supply has evaporated and buying paper certificates based on Gold, can be dangerous, given this factor. If confidence can be restored to the marketplace, as I believe it can and will, by means of new protocols and common agreement upon regulatory controls by the G20 in the coming period, then Gold may well slide back to a lower level of reasonableness.
Given the “imperative” nature of this regulatory requirement in the world markets, and with the stability and deficit issues facing a significant portion of the world economies, particularly the old G8, I see this happening in a matter of certainly not longer than the early period of 2010. Not a lover of Greenspan policies I nonetheless,will use some of his now famous language of definition. “There exists (again) in the marketplace an excessive exuberance which cannot be justified by any accepted measure of normalcy”. I believe this applies currently to the Gold dynamic and the stock market at present.
Some market “pain” will be caused by the G20 when they realign the currency and trade protocols going forward. The watchword will be deficit leveling to avoid trade “benefit” going to any one nation unevenly, due to currency undervaluation, resulting in deficit % to GDP advantages……..
…………..The key to the security of any recovery for the older (G8) economies is an “early” agreement between the new G20 parties as to the leveling of the currency “playing field.” In particular China will need to agree to a softening of their position as regards their peg to the US dollar, which is already having devastating effect on the older economies, as their currencies spike against the falling dollar. given the growth dynamic in Asia we will soon begin to realize that the destiny of the US consumers standard of living, and the American dream per se’ must have Asian support to survive. The Global competitiveness report 2009 produced by the WTO clearly shows the deficiencies of the older economies and the dangers that lie ahead for them if they continue to “borrow” and run up massive deficits to maintain their standards of equivalency. There is definitive economic evidence that In the main case scenario, global growth will return in early 2010, and thus the extent of fiscal expansion, during the crisis will be merely a question of how to moderate the long-term effect, restructure yield curves, and smooth crowding out effects. This will have some effect on the competitiveness of countries globally, but will probably be minor in most cases.
” However, if there is a return to recession in a “double-dip scenario”, differences in fiscal capacity for further budgetary action probably will set some countries apart as beneficiaries, possibly providing them significant long-term advantage……… ”
Guess which countries this will be??
Unless taxes come down and stay down, or at least don’t go up, it is hard to imagine full employment returning. So much depends on the viability of small business.
Hi.
I am very worry about the future and I see the commemoration of the fall of the wall as a sign.
I mean in the west I heard many who where prod about our system (capitalism).
The biggest problem with that system is the progressive concentration of the wealth and power by the time.
Personally I have a terrible foreboding that our western society will also end in a sort of revolution i.e.
total financial collapse followed by civil wars.
A terrible problem now in our society is the stupid apology of the irresponsible.
Just one example: you hear everywhere the word toxic asset in place of crook this is insane.
People are afraid of the reality, this is a sort of cowardice just like Chamberlin before the wwII.
Of course if you say crook you have also soon the question coming, who is responsible for?
Go and hear what Gerald Celente is telling I agree with him (trendsresearch.com).
Take care.
Eric.
I expect market doing very well till end of this year. Subsequently however, it is likely to deteriorate, due to ever increasing financial obligations. Americans sold working position to China , where labor is un-exhaustible. The only solution is re-negotiate the so called FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, if possible at all.
Best Regards
Frank Markez
I’ve learned a lot over the past year from your comments and essays…..and the global economy seems to be playing out the way you foresaw it……thanks for the education Martin..
Headwinds: The reset in mortgages will result in more foreclosures, lack of monies from the banks for small business; floorplan, inventory, seasonal trends resulting in more layoffs, peak unemplomnet will reach 15%. Most states will raise taxes to save jobs that do nothing because programs have been eliminated and not the workers creating more hardship for the average taxpayer. Borrowing by the Feds will increase devaluing the dollar more making oil and other imports more expensive. However exports will increase weakening the recovery of other nations in Europe and Japan’ Government will not effect radical change in health care and insteasd create yet another government agency with more bloat and expense to the taxpayer. ie. tax increases such as a national sales tax on all internet purchases. The stock market will be good until the next round of quarterly reports with an increase in home defaults and credit card defaults. Bernanke will leave office unsettling the world markets. Things will stabilize with another trillion spent in govermnment stimulus by the middle of the second quarter
I’m a first time observer.
I remain amazed how so many have equated the movement of stock market with the movement of the economy. If the stock market looks good, then the economy must be doing well! Some people never learn. The stock market is another bubble that will soon burst. I look forward to hearing your advice for how to make money and preserve money outside our shaky markets.
Unemployment will stay high till the later part of 2011 , technology has past a new
turning point.
automation & robotics changed the production process fewer people are needed
to produce more product.
(There will still be work but to repair or replace the machinery;i.e. High tech jobs)
This combined with more plants closing in the U.S. and moving overseas for the last two decades removed are middle class and crippled are economy to ware it is today.
(..All in the name of profit..)
Thanks Martin for your excellant advise that has helped us during these difficult times. I due agree that the doller is doomed and this is one of the reasons for this economic crisis. History from other countries like Ice land is a perfect example what is happening to America. Thanks to you and your crew for your constante support and advise that Wallstreet and Mainstreem media is not telling us SHAME ON THEM !!!!!
I’m genuinely concerned about the future for most Americans. I believe the Obama Administration is leading us into a giant, black hole and is stubbornly refusing to read the economic signs of the times. The hobbling of America is underway and it feels like the rulers won’t be happy until our hair is shorn and we are walking around the millstone with our eyes put out. The great Socialist experiment will be very costly in terms of American hopes and dreams and I do believe many families will suffer greatly. I don’t like being a doomsday speaker but the principle of sowing and reaping is a fact. Many grievous errors are being made right now that will take many years to unwind. I have become a person of desperate prayer for our nation.
Hey you-all, know that you are witnessing the ‘engineered’ collapse of the all-mighty $ ahead of the intro of the ‘Amero’ ….the currency of the New United States of
the Americas :- Mexico/USA/Canada….good ruck with that ! (you-all might need it)
…..Miguel
The Delphic Oracle pronounced Socrates the wisest mortal in the realm as he he was aware of his own ignorance “I know nothing” – and by dazzling logic could expose any body else’s ignorance.
I am painfully conscious of my inability to grasp the scheme of things entire myself and look to this blog to rectify some of the gaps in my knowledge. I don’t have the temerity to offer anything myself at this stage – excepot a professed desire to learn more.
This winter will be very cold and the flue will rip China up one side and down the other, the best investment may be shorting China. Next year they will have a bad food shortage and will be buying which will send food prices up as will as the $$.
Thank you for the news and letters
look for higher cost off living in 2010
Gold will go up to about 1500$ ,
th ECB will rise the interest rates, most things, except food will become more expensive
In Claus’ “The Sorry State of Modern Economics” release toay he stated that the same ones responsible did not see the current storm coming. I beg to differ. Some, like the FED, probably knew the risks that were about to unfold but didn’t want to start a panic. I believe it was back in April ‘08 when the FED stated that they felt the housing market was leveling out or something to that effect. I think that they knew then that the tsunami was about to crest but they didn’t want to “spook” the markets. I, thanks to Martin and crew and some others, sold my “large” house in SoCal and bought 2 homes in Brazil with my profits. Some say that I am lucky. Well, like my Mom and Dad used to always say to me, “You create your own luck son”. When the next big wave hits, it will be much much worse than the current crisis.
As long as small business can not borrow for growth, we are dead in the water. 2010 about the same, slightly up maybe 10%.
i think in terms of war spending the tax payersdont realise the hidden spending of goverment so called projects america will produce bio chemical fuel that will stabilize oil price soaring gold would increase but lesser than wheat and rice goverments around should produce tax free zones in every major port by2010 as resident obama administration produces goods wheat gold and oil will compete for the tops
I’m uncertain how our economy can begin to recover with the massive government debt, as well as the massive real estate debts still on the books of the banks. The mark-to-model accounting enables banks to put off losses for a time, but that cannot go on forever. Expecting the mountain of paper on their books to be sold again near par is akin to expecting a tulip bulb to once again fetch a small farm, a horse, and a coop of chickens. I know of no case where a ponzii bubble in a particular asset, once exploded, was successfully re-instituted. And it is not clear how the CDSs, MBSs, ABSs, and other mountains of paper are different. Platitudes toward “revenue-bearing instruments” notwithstanding, since those revenues are tiny compared with unpaid principal, and dwindling.
To add to that, I expect additional losses in residential real estate as option arms reset with so many folks unemployed or underemployed. The blowup of the commercial real estate bubble is still ongoing as well. These are all additional losses for banks. Will the government be able to borrow the money to bail out these losses? I expect there is some limit, I just don’t know where it is. If the government ever does refuse a bailout, we may see a run on banks yet again as the FDIC has burned up all of its operating capital and now requires Congress to borrow to make whole depositors of each failed bank. Most people are adamant that FDIC will never go unfunded by Congress, and although I’m confident FDIC will be high on the list, I will not rule out future bank runs if Congress fails to authorize extra borrowing for depositors.
Finally, the middle east wars also cannot be forgotten. An economic recovery in the midst of two wars is almost an oxymoron. Military spending is still near record levels for the last 50 years and will not likely go down soon.
We all know that debt is a hindrance to capital growth. How much the current debts and losses will affect the future recovery is still to be seen. But I cannot imagine that recovery starting without either massive cuts in government spending, or some kind of nationwide rationing of resources. Whether through increased taxation (a form of rationing), stricter or more universal price and wage controls, carbon taxes, healthcare taxes, and so on, I expect a substantial loss of standard of living in the US over the next 10 years. Partially because of previous over-active consumer spending, but much moreso as a result of government spending and bank paper losses that will eventually have to be written down and paid off.
well I am a bit more optimistic!Lets see what happens when the President visits Asia. We dont want the “carry trade” lets leave that to JPY. Gold will escalate as people panic buy ,we are told to “own”something-dont know what. What on earth will they do with the gold coins or bullion? There will be a small rise in interest rates,no need to put it up when its already hard to get a loan.If we can get a handle on the housing problem then it will be half the problem solved.We definitely DONT want the dollar re named,our dollar must survive even if we stop importing,and become an exporting nation for a while. Oil will go up a bit more ,but we will use coal or electric instead of filling the pockets of oil Barons. We need to stop ALL the wars,bring the men home,we cant afford wars anymore-we just will have to keep our borders safe,and conduct searches for ALL undesirable products.Our work force is primarily women at the top-while thats not bad,we need a balance. Send in your suggestions to HELP the President if you have good ones.He is trying,but this is no easy task. The market is BULL and will continue to the end of the year,maybe with a few cloudy periods,but I think we will go out with smiles on our faces! Otherwise ,become a contrarian,you win any way! alvarene./
I have been patiently waiting on the sidelines with cash but so far the predictions are not materializing. The market has got to crash….its just a matter of when?
Dow will reach a high for this rally on March 9th 2010 plus or minus 3 days then a crash into Market on close August 6 2010. Then rally into the end of 2010.
Gold will rally to aprox 1300 then crash below 680 on March 6th 2010. Then rally into end of the year.
There is just to much debt that has to work its way out of the system. Lets put it this way. If you have money you spend a bit and save a bit. Then advertizers get hold of you and they get you to spend some more. Then you stop saving. Then you spend some more because everybody is entitled to a good living – Right! And you start borrowing, first a little bit, but because its easy and cheap and you get used to the idea, you borrow some more, a lot more. Now the easy part dries up and you switch to credit cards. It’s still easy but not cheap anymore. Then the interest payments start catching up. You lose your job because the manufacturing goes to China. Ouch- somehow the mortgage payments and the overdraft payments and the credit card payments are now more than you earn. Ford and Fanny Mae take back the house and the car. Creditors start screaming but you can’t pay. Then creditors can’t pay their creditors and suddenly the insurance companies and the banks are introuble. Then the goverment steps in with massive loans made up of money they don’t have en they expect to get it from you by way of taxes. Except – you don’t have a job because the job has gone to China. So what do you do? You go on social security and you vote for politicians who promise low taxes and increased unemployment benefits. Eventually everybody has no money and we all go bankrupt. Only to start again.
as a layman I say: our government done C+ job so far, Dollar will survive, do not see dramatic changes for the 2010, slow recovery, some bumps, some spikes, stock market will be under control but 20% on a plus as we go, unemployment should stabilize at about 11-11.5%, food will go up moderately, commadities should stay high but within a reason, employment recovery will come with a wave of new technology,
Overall, America keeps the key to future prosperity and not a China, although China will play important roll from this point on. If new technologies will be realesed sooner rather than latter we may have sustainable bull market by the end of Obamas term in office.
What we experience now with the stock market, is nothing short of publicity stand and/or good propaganda/marketing effort under full control, so that we all have hope and feel better not for the sustainment of the future real growth yet. (And that applies to all of us in and outside of the boarders.) Show must go on at all cost.
WOW.WOW.WOW.I LOVE YOU.YOU HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE MONEY. I THINK OBAMA NEEDS TO CLOSE ALL TOBACCO COMPANYS, I AM A SMALL USER,….OK NOW DRUG COMPANYS PUT ON YOUR THINKING CAPS, MAKE ANOTHER DRUG FOR ALL THE NICOTINE…..ALL THE ON THE EDGE PEOPLE OR OVER THE EDGE PEOPLE NEED TO GO TO WAR…..TEENAGERS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN RAISED IN A CHRISTIAN ENVIONMENT SO CALLED DRUGGIES LETS OFER THEM A NEW HOME WHERE THEY CAN LEARN WHAT LIFE IS ALL ABOUT.WOW.I THANK GOD FOR ALL MY VISIONS.ALL THE WEALTHY ONES LETS GIVE A 10% DONATION TO ALL CHURCHES SO WE CAN BUILD MORE.EVERYTHING IS IN BLACK AND WHITE CALLED THE BIBLE.LIVE LAUGH AND LOVE ALSO THANK THE FIRST PERSON THAT ENTERS YOUR MIND EACH DAY.GO FORWARDAND PRAY..PEACE IN LAS VEGAS.DEB
ENOUGH ALREADY ABOUT THE US DOLLAR SINKING OUT OF SIGHT.WHY? BECAUSE EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD HAS TOO MUCH OF IT TO LET IT DISAPPEAR. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BUYING POWER OF THE US DOLLAR, OTHER COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO LET THEIR CURRENCY REMAIN LOWER IN VALUE. SO MAYBE ONE DAY IT WILL TAKE A SUITCASE FULL OF US MONEY TO BUY A CUP OF COFFEE – IT WILL TAKE TWO SUITCASES IN FOREIGN CURRENCY TO DO THE SAME THING.
Question: If I’m already at 25% gold in my portfolio should I continue to increase it? If I’m interested in Tony Sigami’s China picks should I jump in now or wait until they turn down a bit? Stocks go up and down, it seems I should buy in on one of the down moves.
Jim
Where will the greatest profit opportunities be? I think our best opportunities will be by spending our time with our family, our friends and serving our God. Pretty munch the rest we cant take with us anyway.
Invest in the lives of others in 2010.
I can’t totally disagree with some of your 11 predictions and scenarios for 2010 but I don’t see that outcome unless we have only moderate and steady erosion of US dollar and relative strength in non-US worldwide economies. If, as I predict, we are on the edge of a major US and resultant worldwide collapse, the US will again be the safe haven, worldwide economies will suffer far deeper devastation thanthe US. The dollar will be the safe haven again (as it was last winter) in the near to imtermediate term, BRIC and other world economies will be devasted far worse than the US and the dollar will be the place to be for the forseeable future. This is already happening. Deflation is the thing to be feared not inflation. The gold increase is not because of inflation fears but from fears of worldwide econmic collapse. The 3-month T bill yields just went negative last week again for the first time in a long time and this indicates to me impending worldwise implosion in which the US will thrive relative to the rest of the world. And to top it off the US will have debtors leverage. Asian real estate will be the worst hit. There is no reasaon the US should or would honor its obligations in a worldwide downturn. Asian’s and other companies holding US debt will be offered only pennies on the dollar for the US debt and they will be happy to have that. Their infant economies will be swept away and the US will emerge as the leader again as the world just pushes the reset button at much lower prices and extinguished debt levels. Asian counties will beg for 10% return of their investment in US Treasury bonds.
I have gone through my emails and blocked a bunch of sites so I can make time to read the important information you are sending my way. I am making your sites a focus from here on out. Thank you Martin.
Can you tell me the best way to hedge against the US dollar if converting from Auistralian dollars
given the increasing likelihood of a military confrontation with Iran, should we remain in a larger than usual cash position given the likelihood of resulting market upheavals?
would position us for early entry into a low point.
Hi Martin – There is continual comparison with the Great Depression but there are is always a certain amount of apples and oranges. I’ll curious if there has been any analysis on the changes in the DOW index as there has been some quake size shifts. Undoubtedly 1929-30 also say quake size shifts. So how has the DOW changed in composition and how might that compare with the great depression? How similar is today’s 10,500 DOW to the 2000 DOW of 10,500?
What is the most effective way to gain given the coming bond market collapse.
hi martin yr work is awesome. cheers aw
Its a helpful thing to know more about economic condition of the world
At this point, invest in seeds…