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This is getting exciting …
Today, I’m going to take the first step towards helping you build the optimum growth portfolio for 2010!
First, though, let’s take a look at some of the insights and ideas readers posted on my blog in response to yesterday’s question of the day:
What portion of your portfolio do you have invested in commodities and natural resources?
Which commodities do you prefer?
And what instruments do you use — commodity ETFs, commodity stocks, futures, other?
With very few exceptions, most of our readers seem to be bullish on commodities for 2010. The primary area of disagreement is how much of a growth portfolio should be allocated to resource investments …
Gary F. is one of the more cautious commodities investors to weigh in: “Approximately 20% of my self-managed portfolio is in commodities,” he writes. “Natural gas and distribution infrastructure ETFs and MLPs are a significant part of these holdings.”
Rob seems to be twice as bullish on commodities as Gary: “I currently have approx. 40% of my net worth in commodities.”
And Walt P. has invested nearly ALL of his money in just one sector of the commodity market — energy. His words: “I spend probably 80% of my available investment capital in oil & gas.”
Could this really be
the optimum growth portfolio
for 2010?
Over the past week or so, we’ve seen how our readers are structuring their portfolios across all the major asset classes. On a scale from one to ten (ten being the most bullish), I’d guess our readers give U.S. stocks a “two,” while ranking foreign stocks — largely in the BRIC nations — a solid “eight.”
They give fixed-income investments about a “four” and currencies rate a “seven.” Precious metals rank a solid “nine” while commodity investments get an “eight.”
Judging just from this response, you might calculate that, according to our readers, the optimum portfolio for 2010 might look something like this:
U.S. Stocks: 5%
Fixed Income: 11%
Currencies: 18%
Commodities: 21%
Foreign Stocks: 21%
Precious Metals: 24%
But please — do NOT rush out and restructure your portfolio this way!
Because by doing this exercise, we also discovered logical and logistic flaws in this reasoning — some of which could prove extremely costly …
For one, our readers freely admit that many of their portfolio-building decisions are based on “gut feel” and not on a consistent methodology for spotting asset classes with the greatest profit potential and least risk.
We also discovered that, as I count it, about half of our readers have invested most or nearly all of their money in only one or two asset classes — notably precious metals, commodities or foreign stocks, for instance.
But that leaves them extremely vulnerable to sharp declines in those areas, even if the declines are temporary.
And yesterday, we uncovered another danger when one reader pointed out that he had invested a small percentage of his money in gold five years ago — but because gold has skyrocketed in price, it now represents a much larger percentage of his portfolio, exposing him to more risk than he bargained for.
After all: How DO you know when to take your profits in one asset class — and then redeploy that money in other areas to maintain a rational allocation of your resources given the current environment?
Or as William put it, “This is the smartest investment advice of anything I’ve heard in 30 years. We should never lose sight of … being too heavy in one area due to past performance or bias.”
Which brings me to today’s question-of-the-day:
If you could start from scratch to build the ultimate growth portfolio for 2010 …
If your goal was to rationally diversify your capital over the most promising asset classes for the year ahead …
Where would you begin? What would you need? How would you proceed?
NOW, we’re getting there: This is really where the rubber meets the road!
Just click here and use the “comments” area to share your thoughts with us. And as always, I’ll add my own thoughts and answer as many questions as I can.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 162 comments… read them below or add one }
I would remain 100% in cash for now. The markets are dominated by Government/Central Bank moves and there are major changes going on that may sink this market. For one, the Federal Reserve is set to end Quantitative Easing the end of March. If they do end it, long term rates will take off and already rates are currently trending up in anticipation. Secondly, the new budget, which may or may not be approved, calls for massive borrowing and I think the deficits may be worse than the budget outlines. Thirdly, we have large state budget issues that need to be resolved. California and Illinois are in crisis with no good options and borrowing out of control.
Larry, I think you bring up a great issue which I am struggling with as well. I live in FL and the budget just submitted by the Governor has a 3-6 Billion dollar problem (based on how confident one is in the optimistic assumptions in the budget). At some point in time all this government borrowing is going to drive up interest rates which in turn will have a negative impact on business growth not to mention suck investments out of the stock and commodities markets. I would love to hear others thoughts on how this may all play out as I have also been holding cash waiting for the turn.
for diversity and safety close to 20% of each of following:
precious metals
emerging market ETFs
oil & gas/alternative energy
global growth stocks
global value stocks
I am interested in using you managed account services. Could you email some info on the performance of youur different funds and which ones you think are best going forward. Thank you, Chris Crew
A good contrarian bet may well be U.S. stocks since everywhere all you see is China (Asia) recommended. This is for stock speculation and not for the fastest growing economy which are two different things and a lot of the time have nothing to do with each other. The publis is in my opinion being brainwashed with BRIC stock speculations.
Get out of $ investment use BRIC .Get real gold or silver pay for the storage .This is long term . For short term, get oil gas coal and some financials.
Larry & John, I agree with you both. I am mostly in cash, except for a a few gold stocks. I look at so much investing material every week, but nothing can get me past the points you have raised. Hence, I am not buying anything. The stock market just doesn’t make sense to me.
If you could start from scratch to build the ultimate growth portfolio for 2010 …
If your goal was to rationally diversify your capital over the most promising asset classes for the year ahead …
Where would you begin? What would you need? How would you proceed?
This is a daunting task, but I would start with the leading economic indicators (LEI) that Claus places so much faith in and combine that with the work of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles to come up with a reasonable prediction of where the broad market is headed based on historical data. In other words, try to pair the present conditions with a matching segment of the past and then determine how each asset class fared during that historical period. Then I would rank each asset class according to its performance during the historical matching period. I would then dig into each asset class to come up with the optimal vehicle for matching its performance. With those findings, I would design the portfolio.
Not an exact science by any means, but probably better than throwing darts at a board.
Martin
As a long term investor I would have a bullish outlook for ETFs that are pro Dax FTSE and CAC, the major indexes are showing these to be at the lower end of the valuation index. Long term I am very positive on commodities but in the short term bearish on precious metals primarily because of the current dollar rally, political pressure to reduce stimulus and low industrial demand, most of the bullish positions on gold are held by speculators should they leave the market there is little to prop up the price of gold. In addition I would say that despite stimulus the MV or monetary velocity is low that should in the short term keep a lid on inflation.
I am a 100% hard asset type investor. My profession is farming, so, I own farm real estate, I have a commodity futures account which I trade the grains, livestock, currencies, and metals. My future trading risks are held to a minimum, but it keeps me abreast of what is happening in the futures arena. My investment portfolio is over 60% in metals, both bullion and stocks. Majority is in off shore accounts for safety reasons. The rest of my portfolio is in either Energy or foreign stocks. I keep minimum cash exposure as I believe the dollar is headed only down. My short term financial plan is to keep fairly tight stops on all stocks and as stops are hit the cash will be invested in to precious metals to wait out what is coming down the pike. On a scale of 10 I rate the US Government at only a 2. This is not going to end well. I lived and worked for some 10 years in Colombia and Mexico ( mid 60s to 70s) and have seen close up what currency devaluation does to ones wealth.
This is getting fasinating-but the structure of one’s investments will need to be tied to one’s time window until retirement or the need to begin using those funds.The viewpoint of someone 61 years old should be vastly different from someone 25-30 years old,and your blogs and inputs should reflect(or be relative to)the appropriate timeline.My investments,coming from someone who is nearing retirement and is horrified at the current levels of National debt,are,by neccessity,different from my childrens’,all of whom have a completely different timeline.
What currencies make the most sense and should we be using ETF’s? Oil exploration and oil services companies are starting to look like they could revive this year? How do we take advantage of that energy sector?
It would be a mistake to build a portfolio with a time horizon of just one year – sounds like a trader not an investor. I would diversify more along the lines of 10% precious metals, 10% cash equivalents, 20% fixed income, 30% foreign stocks, 30% US with the majority being global/international – that is for my age, risk aversion etc. Taking profits along the way to rebalance as needed per market moves.
commodities 10-20%; use futures with a stop @ 20% portfolio loss
non-directional option income spreads 50% max.
short position in Long Term US Treasuries futures 10 -20% (This one is a no brainer)
cash reserves (Short-term treasuries) 10 – 30%
Even though the market is on a bull run, I still believe that it is a bear market rally and will eventually go much much lower. The government’s actions are postponing the day of reckoning but they can not make it go away by printing money. In addition, I also believe as good as China appears, it will be dragged down with our stock market. China will eventually decouple form the US, but we are now connected strongly. So all this means is that a large portion of you portfolio has to be in cash, even though it produces virtually no income. If you are going to gamble a portion of your portfolio in the market, I think you have to get in at the next washout (lots of selling, high volatility, and a high put to call ratio). You also have to take profits at the right time to avoid giving it all back. In short, I do not believe that any set and forget portfolio will save you. Even the precious metals will tank with the market.
While it would be nice to start from scratch, the biggest hindrance to an intentionally and reasonably balanced portfolio for me is account and asset fragmentation. Between my wife and I we have three 401ks (two main jobs, one side job), several pretax, posttax, and Roth IRAs for each one of us, one stock portfolio, one non-retirement investment account, and pretty soon a 529 as well. Some of those account have a sizable amount of money (=significant share of total assets) where others only have a one time contribution like my wife’s Roth who became ineligible to contribute further after marrying me ;-) Result is that we’re invested in at least three dozen assets, ranging from 2k to 20k. Rebalancing and adapting strategy becomes a logistical issue on top of figuring out how to allocate in the first place. As a result I rarely rebalance/part with existing positions but only change where to put the new money (which could vey well be a spur of the moment decision based on somehing I read). I wish it was all just one pot where you move money around like in a single 401k.
I really do not know how to nail something within only one year.
What I have done in the past is to try to identify “mandatory” product cycles one of which is the increasing electrification needed (or desired) by the world’s population. This product cycle appears to me to be the theme undergirding many of the resource “plays” such as the need for copper, coal & oil & gas for power (vice chemical products such as plastics), and uranium (and thorium) for future power until micro-hot solid-state fusion is tamed. Fundamentally, one can not have wider usage of smartphones, Internet, etc. without the electricity to power them and the necessary server “farms” ….. much less electric-powered heating, cooling, and transportation. Such a product cycle is measured in multiples of decades … not in single years.
Beneath this product cycle one finds the long-term need for specific resources….. such as uranium, thorium, molybdenum (for newer less-corrosion-affected stainless steels), and rare earths (for increasing the efficiency of energy conversion to electricity and then back again into light and motion).
Currently structuring portfolio using templates/rules based on the following books:
The Ivy Portfolio
The Gone fishin’ Portfolio, and
How Harvard and Yale Beat the Market.
Where would you begin? What would you need? How would you proceed?
I must start taking required minimum distributions from my IRAs this year, which dropped in value in ‘08. I need a solid base on which to make decisions. I’m invested in GLD (about 8% of assets) and have made most of your recommended purchases, but still monitoring on a few. I need to generate about 5% of growth to augment my income. Overtime, that may not be enough. I don’t trust the dollar! To proceed, I am starting my “do dillegence” and will set aside about five years of cash to supplement current needs. I am considering high quality dividend paying stocks with sound global investments in China, India and other growing economies. Can you help?
Sandy
P.S. I live in Clark County, Nevada and home values have plummeted, some by 50%!!!
Martin, as I read what you say about how these poor souls are
trading, it makes me sad to think of what their gut feeling will
will feel like by the end of this year !!! Don’t they know that Gold,
Stocks, Commodities will all go down together… And don’t they
understand that it will make no difference whether they buy them
in the Bric,USA, or Iran ? Now I will be ultra long dollar and ultra
short all the others !!! I’m about 15% invested today but as the
down draught resumes I’ll be quite heavily involved as noted !!!
I watch my issues daily and I make corrections as needed…
Thanks and good luck to all !!!
I sold out thee majority of my trading positions a few weeks ago and am in about 65% or more cash at this time. I retained pipeline co’s, preferred stock, some gold and silver just in case. The market has to correct sooner or later and the charts now look choppy. Better to be safe than sorry, you can always buy back in later, but look at the markets in the 30’s. The gov’t has only negative poolicies regarding business, but hyperinflation can cause the market the really go in an uptrend, but we may get deflation before that.
For 2010, I like USA dividend stocks that have international exposure 40%
I like Canadian oil and gas stocks & commodities 40%,
I like etfs in China, Brazil, India. 15% and 5 % cash
Dave S.
First, Martin I am starting from scratch. I have no money in the markets at this time.
Second, I am looking to put $4000 to $6000 dollars into the markets this Spring.
Third, my asset allocation might look something like 30-40% precious metals. This would include hard metal, etf’s, and mining stocks. 20% in treasuries. 10% max in US stocks. And last 30-40% in foreign stocks.
It is a challenge; the market is manipulated and rigged.
2009 was a great year, had a 78% return in 401K.
FSAGX, FSNGX, FiCDX, FSESX were the funds.
The problem with Fidelity is that they punish you if you trade too often.
2010, 50% in FSAGX and 50% in cash, waiting for the next “C” leg to finish and then buy commodities again.
…well, so I’m probably the biggest gold bug of all of us. 100% of all I have is in gold & silver! My 401K is in a form of alocated bars in Australia and the rest in my private storage + some shares of junior gold & silver companies.
If I were starting fresh today I would have 25% gold, 25% Chinese stocks, 25% energy and the balance in copper, silver and agriculture products.
Holding cash and waiting, though considering currencies as a leway. As for gold one may allocate some 10-20 percent. Yet, the bugdet and the debt story has still to be told? Thanks.
Dear Martin:
I am hearing rumors that the government is considering making all IRA & 401K owners convert some or all of their assets into a government annuity backed by US treasuries. They want this money to shore up the governments financing. This is very alarming, and I am really worried about this. The timing could not be worse, and I know what results to expect based upon how the government has handled Social Security to date. Therefore, I feel any optimum growth portfolio for 2010 is not too important right now if this comes to be. What is important is how to protect ourselves from this takeover of our hard earned wealth?
With much regards,
Ken Dupuis
Overlap the 1 year chart of Toyota TM and the spx500. Will the spx 500 play catch up?
put in 6 months at least of the things you use
food(non perishable, paper goods,etc)
buy on sales(two for ones) etc
buy store brands,set limits on the price of item
i have set the prices as follows
fresh tomatoes .99,peppers .50 cucumbers .50,lettuce.99
wr like salads(had a super market go out of business here)
so have about 40 jars of salad dressing,various kinds
bought at 60-75% off
if you have a freezer or can get one,(reasonable)
fill it
plant a garden
buy only basics and pay cash,only use a credit card if it is paid monthly in full by your bank.
learn the difference between wants and needs
i lived thru the last depression and will live thru this one
born in 1927
i can remember my father working for 35 cents an hour(him and his truck)
to pay his taxes
cecil
Dear Martin,
This is how I invest: 40% in Income bonds ( Taking 5% tax free yearly )
35% in commodities and precious metals
5% in international stocks
5% in USA stocks
5% in forex
10% in CFDs, Spreading and options
Good question, as WE are virtually starting from scratch, being mostly cash at present for deflationary scenario. WE think it’s great depression mark 2, in any case the place to start is the big picture. Maybe deflation then (when?) inflation….Ready and scaling in to short the ftse / dow for market collapse. Avoiding stocks until anticipated major low.
In and out of dolls / euro / £ / CHF / CADS according to charts, currency fluctuations nice diversity. Commods? — ETF’s, ready to go long or short as the future unfolds; complex interaction and linkage of world economy, speculators, and government actions means swings and unpredicatability : usually scaling in, follow targets up, take profits (or stop loss) then onto next one…no more buy and hold, except maybe gold.
WE begin with news and views from websites etc. Then try to form a consistent scenario where things are heading. Then create a shortlist of likely picks. This list is then watched for suitable entry on technicals. Have only a few (hopefully well selected), say six, investments at any one time, so we can keep an eye and have effective scaling in / out. Current allocation;
cash 97 % (awaiting decisions)
short silver 1%
long gold 1%
long dolls short euro 1%
The error is in the spelling of my name which is Roger Bouvet
Money Market Funds Can Now Prevent Redemptions
Tuesday, 02 Feb 2010 10:23 AM
By: Dan Weil
Be careful how much cash you put in your money market fund.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has passed a new rule that allows the funds to prohibit redemptions in times of duress.
A fund can now prevent people from taking their money out if three conditions are fulfilled:
• The fund’s share price falls below the fund’s stable net asset value per share.
• The fund’s board of directors approves liquidation of the fund.
• The fund notifies the SEC of its decision to liquidate and suspend redemptions.
The new rules are part of an SEC effort to strengthen money market funds in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. In September, 2008 the Reserve Primary Fund became only the third fund in history to break the buck – reduce its share price below $1……
….
http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Money-Market-Funds-Redemptions/2010/02/02/id/348711?s=al&promo_code=9691-1
I’M WAITING FOR YOU TO TELL ME WHAT THE WINNERS WILL BE FOR 2010. THAT WILL BE EXCITING.
Portfolio for 2010: For starters I currently have 42% of my 401K sitting in Money Markets (largely short term treasuries) waiting for a better entry point into building a “dividend achievers” portfolio -for that I am wondering how much to directly buy stocks and how much a dividend ETF….? My next largest allocation is 30% in two mutual funds that follow foreign stock markets (this has been a roller coaster ride that lately interferes a little with sleeping but has long term potential for big growth gains). I have 15% in ETF bond funds distributed between foreign soverign, high yield, and a general hodge podge. This is something I need to watch carefully in terms of interest rate increases to be expected. I have 5% in a MLP ETN for an energy dividend and growth play. Gold occupies nearly 3%, an energy/materials ETF for another 3% and finally some interest rate protection in TBT at 4%. As I look over this collection I am eager to build those dividend achievers but patience is probably called for, I would like to have more energy and materials (including the gold). The Weiss advice continues to play an important role in what I do, I really like the diverse mix of opinions that come in from Germany to China to Brazil etc. All the money is in the 401K so I am careful about subscription costs to advisory services (no distributions taken yet).
This is a tough question to answer as the future is quite cloudy at this stage in the global economy. Another market crash still worries me so I am keeping much of my power dry. But, about 22% is in precious metals, 2% which is in LEAPs expiring in Jan 2011 and 2012. About 7% is in commodity currencies. Maybe 3% is in MLPs. Another 5% is in hard asset and oil mutual funds or ETFs. The remainder is in cash.
50% Real Rental Estate (Presently owned)
Remainder:
40% Balanced portfolio of USA Absolute Return Funds.
30% Short Term Treasuries.
30% 2%+ CD’s.
I would like to have a diversified portfolio but since I am an active trader I can only focus on a couple asset class at a time. So, I am focusing on Oil, Natural gas, Uranium, Silver and Gold. I would like to be invested in Semi stocks too but I don’t have the time to focus on it, however if there is a major dip like what happened the last week of January, I will buy into it. I avoid ETF’s because I have too much energy to invest in them. I prefer to eye major swings in individual stocks and ride the upswing and sell the tops.
I have investing mine in country real estate for now, with plans for 1/2 in metals in approx 3 to 5 months.
I don’t know if we can ever get it right, all of the time. I try to allocate along with Martin, Larry and Tony’s advice. That means 47% cash, 43% China and other BRIC countries, most to China, and 10% gold and silver . I have done very well in an Ivy Global Fund I have had a long time but think it will do less well as the economy sinks with the market. Try to tell us what ( you-the experts ) think. And thank you more than i can say.
Martin: I have been buying regular stocks following investment advisors such as larry edelson claus vogt and mike larson and tony sagami as well as some others to make money with the bear market rally. I have now sold them all and have inverse positions only as well as up dollar investments and short euro and vix etfs.I have 10% of my investment portfolio in physical gold bullion which i have in posession. I also have some silver eagles 3% I am going to buy junk silver and am waiting for correction to buy. I am getting a foreign bank account to get some of my money out of country . I have also invested 60,000.00 in foreign real estate. I am going to buy foreign currencies when i think the dollar rally is done at the endof this year or so. i am investigating arizona homes as an investment and tax liens this week. i have money in the two safest banks in minnesota unfortunately both are small so i need a bigger bank. I am preparing to buy short term treasury bills as you advise with some 15-20% of money. I believe all stocks are going down way down same with oil commodoties etc it will be survival of fittest. i think korea brazil india and taiwan and possibly australia will have a dip with all mkts and then will be the future bulls. i believe china japan hongkong etc are in long term bear mkts. I believe gold and silver will form major bottoms 2011 to 2013 then will do well.i’m hoping we will see the worst over for us by 2014.I read richard russell on the value of owning gold and how you are rich holding gold in deflation or inflation is the best advise on owning and selling gold. larry is also bullish on gold but i think it may dip more than he expects i am not selling my gold no matter what. i do have two small positions in gold stocks and mineral stocks that i am going to hold. I think claus will be proven right in his inverse position and will have the last laugh. Hope he doesn’t bail out under all the pressure before that happens. i have learned a great deal from you guys and i hope you can continue to help us navigate these waters into the future. I am considering norwegian krone and new zealand dollar does any one have other ideas for safe currencies? joanne
Martin has pointed out an extremely important issue of vulnerability. I recommend taking a tool, like Google Finance, and plotting up various ETFs in representing different assets in your portfolio over a period covering the market drop. You can easily see how interrelated (correlated) your portfolio is. The results may be surprising. Larry C. makes a good point about macro moves. Personally, I am conservative with a predominantly cash position with some currency and commodity positions. On the equity side, I focus on private companies. But overall, cautious.
The well informed investor who has done the homework and will be starting new with a porfolio would be well advised to invest in the companies who provide the products and services to the older & retired population. The boomers will add a massive number to the sales of companies providing elderly care products.I would seek out the best companies and invest in shares now.Ten years from now the stocks will have increased in value two fold.The only gut feeling & imagination envolved in my decision would be realizing the hundreds of products & services the elderly use every day.
Listed below is my self directed Portfolio:
Commodities 10%
Energy 30%
Commuications 30%
Precious Metals 30%
Diversification can greatly reduce gains as well as reduce potential loss in many cases.
Sector selection should be based on fundamentals, and timing by TA.
I started investing and currently have about 5 times the share dollar value, as well as 5 times the equivalent in bullion that was profit purchased. This took 11 years and is about 10 times total accumulated investment dollars; not adjusted for inflation.
As to currencies, bullion is convertible to in fiat currency world wide. It is a storehouse rather than an investment in my opinion. Example 1 Roman gold coin purchased a toga, sash, sandals, and a head wreath, while today an oz. of gold still buys a suit, shoes, belt, and hat of reasonable quality. Miners are held as a high percent potential gainer in times of currencies and financial failures.
Currently, Canadian energy trusts, oil, Au & Ag miners account for outstanding shares and certificates.
A possible sudden loss of let’s say fifty percent (or more) is expected as a probability. Shares, bullion, or both will drop.
Paper shares, fiat currency, commodities, nothing is safe in a cataclysm. Prices of all things will depend on demand and availability. Bullion (decreased value) will still buy food medicine, whatever, paper will not.
With the huge world population increase, just staying alive is both a chore and challenge.
Martin…I firmly believe that your asset allocation should reflect where you are in your life cycle and what your tolerance for risk is. Those of us in our golden years need to keep the concept of capital preservation as a primary decision factor, while also allowing for some measure of growth to keep up with inflation. Younger readers of your newsletter should probably take a more aggressive position in their selection of assets as their time frame for recovery of failures is much greater. Having said that, it is now important to assign some risk/reward value to all of the classes you have outlined including US Stocks,Fixed Income,Currencies,Commodities,Foreign Stocks,and precious metals. Since this is a subjective decision for everyone, one simple tool that I have used is “Paired Comparisons” whereby you compare each option directly against every other option, and give a weight to each comparison as to how much more or less is the risk value (or the reward value) of the two assets. When you have completed this exercise you will have “Relative” pecking order of each assets importance in the makeup of a possible portfolio based on your own personal biases and experience. This is obviously not a perfect science but it is a good place to start your decision making process…Dan
I am really surprised that property does not seem to feature in your growth portfolios. Like shares etc with good choice and sensible borrowing this can be a successful option. Prices are depressed in US [still high here so we are not borrowing] and we are thinking of investing there. 70% of our investments are in property and not only do they pay us but we did not lose anything there in the GFC.
Australia is different and sometimes I just have to ignore your messages about 401’s etc but there are some basic good ideas – we do benefit from China’s growth and the safety margin of gold and currency alternatives apply everywhere – we are doing better with term deposits paying 6% in safe banks, so we dont worry much about bonds…
Keep up the good work Susan
The only thing I have in way of investment is an index fund with ING. I’ve had it for quite a few years. When the crash hit it was up. Then it went way down and now it is yo-yoing. I really do not like this. This is why I like CD’s. No matter how small the rate when the CD comes through the money and gain is mine to keep.
50/50 gold and silver and 20% into oil it is my personal opinion one cant loose….what to get into stocks with lots of cash and etfs in asian markets for now
Hi, very defensive right now, Muni’s in taxable accounts, if they will bail out banks, GM, etc. I don’t think they will let municipalities fail and I do think taxes will go up. Inverse/double ETFs tied 20 treasury, I think yields will go up. Some TIPS as hedge on inflation. High yielding good quality US stocks. Small allocation to physical gold and lesser amount silver (5-8%). Currencies are dicey but I am short the EURO and have a diversified individual portfolio of foreign stocks, ETFs and ADR’s total 7% allocation. Also, hold about 10% in Bond funds. I have some MLP’s and Mortgage REITs.
More than 50% in Cash FDIC savings 1.5% and some CD’s about to mature.
Now come on Martin – you have asked readers their ideas and I have not seen much advice from you. I may not be looking in the correct place (point me there) – but still like to have your ideas on this and fixed income.
Commodities ETFs 15%: lots of upside, but can be quite volatile
Precious metals 20%: but take gains off table after the printing presses are slowed down; gold could tank like it did after Paul Volker stepped in in the early 1980’s
Dividend-paying stocks in basic goods 30%: They are the foundation of a stable portfolio.
Energy-related stocks 10%: stocks in companies which produce wind turbines, solar cells and nuclear reactors (which are poised for a comeback)
Oil & gas ETFs 5%, Cash 20%
Please discuss pro’s and con’s of holding inverse ETF’s long term.
I am currently in a safety mode with investments:
5% cash or equivalents in bank or easy access money
5% in relatively stable foreign currencies (CHF and C$)
10% in TIPS
20% in income producing real estate (farm/timber property)
30% in precious metals, both physically held and through Perth Mint
30% in Short Term US Treasury Money funds
I expect more stock market declines in the US Market, and probably overseas markets as well, in 2010. I eliminated my last stock/equity investment today (through a natural resouces company mutual fund) and moved the money into my short term treasury money fund. I also expect to see inflation take off by the end of 2010 or beginning of 2011 due to US money-printing, and I may make further adjustments to protect myself or benefit from that. The deficits are even more of a concern because of their long-term dangers, attritions of the economy, and costs. I believe that there is at least a 40% chance of a US Dollar devaluation in the next five years, and I will be watching/adjusting for that possibility.
One thing I would like to see Martin W. or his staff address is this: I have heard that Canadian banks and their banking system are in better shape than ours. Why is that true, if it is, and is it still legal for US Citizens to hold Canadian Bank accounts as long as they are reported to the IRS?
Re: Growth Fund Balance
I am retired and most interested in capital preservation, plus some income and some growth. I have set aside a self managed growth fund and intend to proportion it as follows:
Currency 30%
(half in New Zealand and half in Brazil)
Foreign Stocks (ETF)
China 40%
Brazil 30%
Others 30%
I consider domestic inflation, domestic unemployment, domestic housing problems and sporadic foreign currency devaluations as the current threats to investing. As a conservative investor I suggest 5% gold for stability, 50% large cap global stocks to protect against focusing on any one country, 30% in short/intermediate term and junk corporate bonds, 10% MLP, along with 5% cash. The stocks would have a good share of techs since they are good no matter which way the economy goes.
It makes perfect sense to invest in things our growing populations will need in increasing amounts and even more so in things that are likely to become more valuable, except – - –
if investors notice this, as they undoubtedly will, the stock prices may be overinflated and painful corrections will likely occur.
Therefore, experienced investors must inevitably become market timers, however – - -
When they are all trying very hard to frontrun each other, the results can become chaotic and no “system” is likely to succeed once it becomes popular. Hedging is a way to avoid catastrophic failures but, like playing the colors at a roulette wheel, it slows the game down to where the “house” is very likely to beat you. Fortunately, the production of useful things is an engine of growth so being mostly long is a little better than being in a casino – but you may not sleep very well.
In any case, fixed income is also a loser unless the risks are very limited and the interest rates are “positive.” Fiat currencies are also a risky proposition.
Well, however rational you may be, we know that the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So what to do? Give the management of your account to a trusted professional; let Bernie worry about your money? Then assume a carefree fetal position.
What you need is a reliable source of earnings, for example, selling market advice or becoming an investment banker. In the world I was born into, very long ago, a person with reasonable competence good fare pretty well as a scientist or an engineer. Now, that seems passe’ except for immigrants and the children of immigrants. The love of money is king.
Age is a determining factor. 61 and trying to protect more than grow. Protect against inflation. Can’t protect against redistribution unless I can legally get it out of the country.Starting over would still stay with commodity ETFs. Oil, gas, food, water, lumber. Physical metals.Foreign currency c.d.s.Some real estate and it may get a lot cheaper.If this looks negative it’s because Washington is taking shot after shot at our money.You can only duck for so long.You can only hope the dollar doesn’t go as low as the presidential approval ratings, but in may.
I have tried to always keep a mixed bag so not to be too weighted in anyone area. I need help with a general plan for a yellow brick road to follow, a rule of thumb if you will to guide me from sticking in one place too long or not long enough. I still have over 50% of my holdings in a fixed account paying 5.75%. I am afraid of what would happen if the dollar goes away and what my dollars would be worth then even in a fixed account senerio.
U.S. Stocks: 5% – Optimistic with certain stocks – for me 20%
Fixed Income: 11% – Okay – Maybe 10%
Currencies: 18% – I disagree as this is a real gamble – Should be 0%
Commodities: 21% – Reality starts here – Perhaps 25%
Foreign Stocks: 21% – Good Idea – 20%
Precious Metals: 24% – Mandatory – 25%
First i need to know what sector is going to be it for 2010 to know how or what to invest in, At that time i will choose how much to invest.
Ken Curry millenniumreals@aol.com
I have no problem overweighting in one area if the situation calls for it. I have 80% of my money in precious metals stocks and coins. I do not subscribe to the 10% “insurance” theory. If you have, say, 30% inflation and you have 90% of your wealth in dollars and 10% in gold, that “insurance” is too low. Stocks as a whole will not protect you in an inflationary environment, because inflation generally functions as a business DESTROYER a la Zimbabwe, not a business facilitator, because it destroys the purchasing power of consumers for anything more than staples. This is a perfect storm of worldwide inflation about to be unleashed. National governments alone will issue $4.5 trillion of new debt in 2010, almost triple the average. This is the equivalent of a devaluation/default on their existing debt.
THIS IS NOT A YEAR FOR GROWTH BUT THE BEGINNING OF A DECADE OF DECLINE STOCKS BONDS COMMODITIES BOTH FOREIGN AND US ARE ALL GOING DOWN ITS NOT A TIME TO DECIDE WHAT TO INVEST IN BUT WHAT TO SHORT WHILE ITS ALL GOING DOWN ! NOTHING HAS BEEN FIXED IN THIS BANKING CRASH ALL THE BAD STUFF IS STILL OUT THERE HIDING BEING KICKED DOWN THE ROAD OR MOVED TO YOUR PENSION FUND OR MUTIAL FUND THE MONEY LOST WAS REAL MONEY AND THE GOVERMENT HAS JUST GIVEN WALL STREET AND THE BANKS TIME TO MOVE IT TO THE UNSUSPECTING FOOLS MAKE SURE NO ONE SELLS THEM TO YOU BUY THE SAFEST INCOME STOCKS , GOLD AND SILVER AND WAIT THEY CANT HIDE THESE FACTS FOREVER GOD BLESS
The problem is…any portfolio built for what we think we know today, may be obsolete tomorrow or bury us under the next Black Swan event next week. I don’t feel that there is any stability in the markets mainly due to all of this government intervention and ideology. This administration is “business unfriendly” and special interest corrupt. Once politicians realize that they have the power to vote themselves the contents of someone else’s pocket, the system is doomed and our pocketbooks are now more than ever a free for all. This becomes a futile exercise in today’s economy where poltitics are in front and not providing stability for capitalism future growth, business or personal.
Its impossible to print money and get away with no inflation so it has got to be precious metals and watch the oil prices you have got to understand the governments need the inflation to inflate them selves out of there cock ups ask buffet.
Terry
I don’t think it is of much value imagining that one should try to configure the “Holy Grail” of asset allocation when beginning a portfolio. The best we can hope for is an informed decision process; the task is monitoring whatever your starting point is and making necessary adjustments as the future unfolds. A better solution would be to set watermarks for each asset class and hold them to it. If they meet/exceed expectations stay with them. If not, unload and reconfigure. Using the asset classes above, a 15%-20% configuration for each would be a reasonable starting point that limits exposure to any one asset class.
I have Georgia Power & Electric
Cpl
Investing is not an exact science. Just as in quantum mechanics, there are no certainties, only probabilities. That’s what makes investing fun. But in quantum mechanics the probabilities can be calculated exactly. This will never be possible in investing. Even so, each investor should try to come up with a set of probabilities as best they can, and then invest accordingly.
Martin:
I’ve been reading your columns for a couple of years now and took your advice when you recommended slowly getting out of the market on highs and diversifying with commodities, etf’s and metals. While I haven’t gotten rich, I’ve maintained and that is all that I hoped for. Looking at your breakdown of assset allocations, somehow I arrived close to the same allocation in my portfolio….
I do think there is money to be made in the market right now, if you want to gamble some, but have that feeling in my gut that it could all fall apart at any time. I thank you and your staff for the analysis you bring, and look forward to reading you in the future.
I am open for a conversation of world issue. and you ask which of the sources would I invest in, gold and metal. and foreign trade. as we must put company in other country
so investment in this will be productive. Gold for we need to trade our service and industry to do in other country that have gold to give to us for this, so gold and money if it drop for a time this would be good. and then material as we should be making heating and elec and other good with material. so that is what I would do and then the American dollar as if it is down it will go up. at some point.
lets talk, Maryann God bless you,
The market lacks direction and is very unstable. Obama has really messed up trying to save the economy—he lacks direction. Now he is trying to recover and please the people. He is not pushing oil exploration in our country but is investing in solar & wind development which has very little chance of success in the short term & maybe long term. Small business is not getting nearly enough attention. Since the economy is so unstable I have invested 33% cash, 33% gold, silver & small gold stocks, 20% income & high yield, and 14% in ETF hedges, shorts, spec and foreign. Then one must pray!
Just invest in new business overseas and domestic, look for product information and go from there. then invest in gold as it is a levy and do not forget metal as we need it for computer and electronic with much we will be doing and heating, I would not trust a bank at this point unless they are back heavy. Maryann
I would certainly have gold(10%) and gold mining stock(10%) with oil and gas (20%),next I wold have food and fertilizer stock(20%) as world population will continue to grow requiring more food to be produced. after this would have U.S. stock(5%) foreign stock(5%) and the rest in fixed income(30%). I really don’t have the expertice to work with currencies so this would be my starting layout.
It makes little sense to constantly sell winners and to use the proceeds to buy declining stocks. The balancing so often advised does just this.
Let your winners run and cut short the losers.
If the economy actually has the bleak future some of you appear to believe, you would be better off hoarding soap and household paper products. If you have such essentials in long term supply you can trade (barter) for anything else you need.
Remember gold is more intrinsic; such commodities as water have actual value.
Also: grow at least a portion of your food yourself.
I am 73 years old and am needing income from my investments. My financial adviser
is recommending annuities and I am not comfortable with this. Would this be a good
way for me to go? Right now I am living on dividends which have been reduced lately.
Do you think he is steering me in the right direction?
Right now, oil and gas companies and MLP’s, gold/silver(not as integral part of portfolio, but held personally), agriculture, fixed income and foreign stocks. The percentages are not what we would like but we are working on them. No foreign currencies, but possibly Canadian dollars and Swiss francs. At our ages—over 65—we feel fixed income, including a large position of cash, is mandatory for survival when the next shoe drops!! Will be greatly interested in knowing how you will divide and include the above—or not.
Thanks,
Nancy
Martin,
I am beginning to develop some concern when you and Larry and other experts want your readers opinions about what and how to structure a portfolio. Correct me if I am wrong and I am not being facitious when I state, “I thought that was what we were paying you to do, give us direction.”
Kind regards,
BG Woods
My portfolio would look like this.
25% gold stocks-about three different etfs
25% oil dividend paying stocks
25% china stocks about three
25% cash ready for new recomendatiions.
Gary
I hope no one is re-structuring their portfolio based on popular consensus or popular vote.
In this environment, one should adjust one’s portfolio every quarter based on the performance of certain sectors.
Right now I am:
60% Bonds (fixed income)
- 35% Short Term
- 25% Foerign
- 25% intermediate Corp
- 10% Muni
- 5% High Yield Corp
40% Equities
- 35% Gold, Silver, Energy ETFs and stocks
- 40% US
- 25% Foreign
I built a little formula that I assign Risk values to each category and allocate from that. The Risk Value is very simple and not scientific. I look at the likelyhood of the assett class going up vs. going down. The problem is that I assign my own values mostly on feel. For instance, I just realigned my portfolio and weighted future inflation as high. I gave up 4% yield to protect capital by moving more money into GLD and short term bonds. There is also a heavier downside weight given to each class than upside. Big moves down can happen way faster than big moves up. This weighting is affecting GLD and foreign Stocks a lot. I am trying and had a recent post concerning some reevaluations of my allocations. That is why I am looking at TBT and TIPS. These would have a smaller risk profile than GLD and some of my Foreign Bonds and Stocks.
This why I AM WAY INTERESTED in some of the Posrtfolio Allocation recommendations being considered by Weiss. Before the blog started I was making some adjustments to get in line more with the Safe Money Report. Made the move to GLD because of it. Started talking with folks about bullion (commissions are brutal). Awaiting your thoughts – Jim
Since real estate has declined so much, do you think buying it now would be a good investment? What about tax lien certificates, do you think they are a good investment since the interest rate is fairly good and the risk is low?
I’m waiting for the storm to arrive! I do not have the experience to test this market. I think that it is too early.
Gold and Silver, 2/3 gold, 1/3 silver
Cash 1/3 Real Estate – residential 2 homes, one vacation.
One asset class that should be a combination of high growth potential and inflation hedge, all in one, would be natural resources. Other than gold and oil, our portfolio is light on the other natural resources. Can anyone, especially Martin, suggest the proper SPECIFIC investment vehicle for these other natural resources – ETFs, Mutual funds, companies?
Correction for my previous comment.1/3 Real Estate – residential 2 homes, one vacation.
At age 79 and without further knowledge of where the economy is going, I would arrive at my current very defensive position.
60% Treasury MMs
17% gold & silver
23% Stocks (Energy 50%, China 25%,commodies and metals 15%,other 10%).
I could use more in interest/dividend income but do not want to risk losing more than I would make. My greatest fears are medical and/or inflationary catastrophies.
I prefer to invest for mid term and long term profits. Overall, I am not too concern about what is ideal for taking a profit in 2010 unless I see the stock I own starting to peak. I want good deals in 2010. I believe the dollar will eventually collapse. This is one of things I want the most protection from in the long term. I believe this will most likely cause precious metals and precious metal stocks to rise. I currently invest in bullion and stocks. I also do not like the direction the government is taking us, so I plan to start storing some bullion overseas this year. Because of the pending collaspe of the dollar, I also own a few Asian stocks on their stock exchange. I believe in the long run this part of the world will be financial power house. One company is a food processing company specializing in soy products. People in that neck of the woods love soy. One is a rail company in China. China has a lot of natural resourses, one being the most rare earth metals in world, but does not have enough infustructure in place to move the resources. The other Asian company is a water company that has world wide contracts for building water treatment facilites. Lack of usable water is a problem every where. My only U.S. stocks are the precious metal stocks I have and one energy stock. This year, I plan to buy some dividen paying commodities stocks in Canada and Australia on their stock exchanges because these countries have a lot of what other countries want and need. They also have a more solid financial system what I see here in the U.S. Right now, I have divided my investments as follows:
30% Cash
25% Phsical precious metals
20% Precious metal stocks
25% Foriegn commodity stocks
However, I will change this depending on the circumstances. I plan to add energy stocks, which are a good buy and paying a dividen, this year.
Investors can get greedy. I try to fight it I like Claus phylosophy. More usa companies with big investments in South East Asia.India and Brazil. I still can’t trust Russia. That helps our economy through USA companies. Maybe less profit but a Win–Win Situation.
I think many of us are looking at an approach that can adapt with constant changes in the stock market. Singles rather than Home Runs. In stocks – drug companies, energy companies and those organizations such as PG which make money regardless of the ups and downs. Opportunities abound in this market. Precious metals buy on the lows but only a small percentage. Real estate – what a fire sale-select carefully and in the long run you will be a very happy person. Cash is still King since there are so many opportunities to purchase almost any investment at lows that we may never see again.
I am heavily invested in commodities such as precious metals and same for stocks.
I have foreign currencies. I have oil stocks and options on same. I have greenback liquidty. I don’t know what else to do! I would be interested in knowing more about ETF currency options or whatever they are called. I don’t know whether to go back to more greenback liquidity. I feel we may have a global depression which would not bode well for many things.
I am very new at this. I never purchassed any stocks. I am 2 years self-employed and not too far away from retirement. I am interested in gold, silver, gas and oil. I don’t know how to balance my portfolio with proper stock assets. Help!
Martin,
For the next year cash (currency) will be king. We are in the middle innings of the largest de levereging in the history of mankind. Servicing and starting to unwind 60 trillion dollars in debt will prove to be a monumental task. Those who owe this pile of money have basically shorted the U. S. Dollar (Federal Reserve Notes) of which less than one trillion dollars actually exists today in circulation. Bank accounts, money market funds and bonds aren’t legal tender, they are just deravitive claims to legal tender owed by someone else. It is called deflation, and just about everything will decline in value as people learn a tough lesson from history. Bernake won’t have enough helecopters to paper over this mess!
I really know what will work.
Andy
I mean to say that I really don’t know what will work this year.
Andy
My Ultimate portfolio is based highly on practicalities with very little gut feel. My current structure is:
30% in Income stocks (mostly MLPs with some Corporate Bond ETFs)
30% Stable Large Caps (Strong market presence and good balance sheets)
20% Stable Mid Caps (Strong Brands, growth potential, good balance sheets)
20% Small Caps (breakout potential, new products in key commercial areas)
Most of my large caps & mid caps generate international revenue and so are not US dependent, they also serve to stabilise the portfolio. The MLPs provide steady income (reinvested giving growth) and the small caps provide for possibly very large growth.
Alright than never thought I would leave a coment, because I can’t type realy well. Portfolio may be a big name for something simple? I have very little money and getting to be older, kind of retireing, never done much of investing until I got interested in Forex trading, and it is a good way to invest little, and turn into big cash, although I can advise a good money management strategie, that is what will give you the good return. forex is good because you are able to get in and out with ease, you will be able to cut losses quickly, or let the thing run for profit. Commodities trading is very lucrative yet it is a seasonal thing, you can get to know just by following the way how you shop at what times. I don’t ever think about secure investments since I am interesting to make some money to get my retirement nestegg together. I set goals for a deal, and when met thats it, count the pennies so to speak. I am not interested in making large gains. I am interested to make my goal for each deal and make plenty of it. the more deals the more possibilities and for that matter some times loosers won’t go a long way. Made that mistake ones, and one time is good enough to learn from it to go on to the next deal to make a good out come. I don’t go by gut feeling I go by indicaters news and ect. Make sense out of what I see, and go from there.One thing I did enjoy to use was the information about cycles that is a very good indicater to decide what will be a good deal. All I like to acomplish is to get enough money together that I can retire in peace you can’t take stuff along anyway.
1) Start from scratch-where to begin?
I would continue to rely on your Weiss education and research publications. You all use plain talk in explaining why you recommend what you do, and in sufficient depth; and also organize your information so well. Until 2007 I used your Safe Money model portfolio and more than replaced the mandatory withdrawals from my IRA each year. The past 2 turbulant years I have used a mix of Safe Money and Real Wealth models, and have done OK. This experience has given me a certain confidence in Weiss.
2) What would I need?
I would want to understand what mix of asset classes and quantities are appropriate for my moderate means and retired status. I wrote you about this yesterday. I don’t think “one size fits all” applies to all of us. For this information, I would most trust your own personal opinion and guidance, Martin.
I would like to continue to receive regular in-depth newsletters and a model portfolio; and flash alerts when special action is needed. I’m comfortable with how you already do this. I still check things out before buying something, but tend to sell when you all say sell.
I would also like expanded personal contact with knowledgeable staff when I don’t understand something you all have written.
3) Where would I begin – how would I proceed?
I would definately want to maintain my gold ETF and mutual fund holdings and understand better whether to increase them on major dips.
I need to know whether long-term investments are still a good idea in this strange world. E.g., should dividend stocks with highly dependable companies of long-standing play a major part? I assume their stock price would plummet in a major market dive even though their dividends might continue to be paid. How do I make sense of this? Martin, I would tend to trust your personal position on key issues like this. Sort of the Advisor Emeritus!
I would need an affordable retirement publication from Weiss. If you come up with a new investment vehicle, I would subscribe to it providing the fee is small enough. I have found that my investment funds are not large enough to produce enough profit to ever make back a costly annual fee; and then after that – hopefully – bank a profit for myself.
Again, thank you for all the help I’ve enjoyed over these years.
Jeanette
After reading many of the comments, I´m even more convinced that another big drop in all markets is not too far off……..Cash, Cash and more Cash. All asset classes will be able to be bought in the near future at bargain prices for those investors with liquid cash !!!!
It appears that allocation of 5% to US stocks is too low and 24% to precious metals too high.
Martin, I signed up for the RTA and now realize that it is over my head and would like to discontinue this service and remain in your other services as they are more to my capabilities. Should thetre be a refund available, I would appreciate it. Patrick Flanagan, agora pf9389@aol.com. I will write on your blog momentarily.
We all would like to make a killing in the market each and every year. However, I am retired and in my 70s and can no longer limit the bulk of my portfolio to precious metals and commodities (in the past, I have experienced wild fluctuations with precious
metals and commodities. I would want 12% in U.S. stocks, 14% in commodities, 15% in Foreign stocks, 14% in prescious metals, and 45% in both global and local short term bonds. Would have no currencies, as I don’t have a clue on how to pick such and it would seem that they are quite volatile.
I need to learn how to invest in China. I am in CD’s and precious metals.
Martin.
After reading about energy commodities I’ve decided to hang on to my Jay Hawk investment a little longer. Some are saying sell, but from what I read Jayhawk is a well managed, good debt to income ratio company and on the verge of profitable oil venues here in the US. I’m sticking with them and AENY for my energy stock portion of my HUMBLE portfolio.
By the way, you impress me as a trustworthy source, in a world of sharks out there. Thanks, Robby
With this huge variety of opinion i’m left scratching my head. All I know is buy low and sell high, which appears to leave out precious metals. I think I’ll just park my money in Treasuries and cash for the moment. So what if I miss a spike, I might also miss a huge dip.
i would buy 4 vanguard funds and skip the rest.
Hello Martin, Greetings from Auckland. As mentioned in previous postings, as a NZ family trust we are positioned for deflation now. We are 100% cash with NZD 50% (our domestic currency) and 50% off-shore currencies. When we study the research on private debt globally (Steve Keen and others) which shows an unprecedented indebtedness, particularly in western economies, we conclude that this debt can, will and is delevering. We are not sure how long this process will take. However, we have a strong sense that over time paying down, re-financing and defaulting on this debt will take most asset prices lower, since most financial securities were inflated by a credit expansion over several decades. Thank you and your subscribers for a broad and intelligent discussion.
i would buy four vanguard ie total stock market, total bond market and international fund and one other and skip the rest
Focus on the basics and ignore the noise. The Coca-Cola’s, Gillette’s and P & G’s of the world are core holdings in that a majority of their sales are outside the USA. I’m ridding myself of cash by investing all but some walking around money in preparing for rampant stagflation in the USA. I’d rather have a Chevrolet in a down economy than a Cadillac.
I got clobbered in 2000. Lost more than half my portfolio, being too heavy in tech. Never fully recovered. I got clobbered in 2008. Lost again, about half, being too heavy in value stocks. Have not made it back. Unfortunately, large medical bills ate into my portfolio this past year as well. Now I’m 67 years old and find myself too far behind to take 10k a year out without going broke before I am 80. I need a year or two of massive gains, like 2009, and then convert my portfolio to focus on income. I know massive gains in a sideways market is unrealistic. I also know that American politics and debt is changing the game , and not in my favor.
How do I negotiate this battlefield for the next two years, and come out well ahead? Help!
Last year we invested in The Dreyfus 100 U.S. Treasury MM Fund as you suggested. It has proven to be very convenient as the money is more accessible than 13 week treasury bills and, hopefully, just as safe. Now, however, Dreyfus has sent a proxy for us to vote on. They want to increase their interfund borrowing and lending for a term no longer than 7 days at a time from 15% ot 33% of the fund’s value.
Should we be concerned if this is approved?
It scares me to read all the predictions of another market crash. I just started AGAIN to invest 3 month ago with not much gains to cash in.
At present I have 40% Energy BP, RDSA, SLB, PWE
20% Utilities Brazil CPL
15% Materials Foreign ETF GDX & Agriculture CGA,PAGG
15% Telecommunication Services VZ
5% Consumer staples MO
5% Precious Metals coins & stock in silver& gold
As ideal as the ultimate 2010 growth portfolio sounds the practicality of a single composite growth portfolio would seem like manufacturing a one-size shoe that fits all. The diversification would be a positive, however the asset allocation weighting would be a difficult issue to tackle with the recession recovery time frame still in question as to sector strength.
Risk tolerance would be another depending on life stage of the investor so the percentage of funds devoted to the ulitmate growth model would vary. Aside from the above points to consider the objective is a capital idea, but beyond my scope of knowledge for all of the investment areas to consider.
In oct or sept of 2007 they say we almost shut down the systems,banks ect. Are we out of the woods ? Read what Lech Walesa said about us and ……………..tell me how to invest with that in mind.
Buying low and selling high is the only way for growth. If you can do it consistently, then ANY portfolio is a growth portfolio. If you can not, then stay out.
I have approx. 50% of my net worth in energy, another 40% in health care and the remainder in income investments. Unsure about how or why I would change.
I am selling gold and silver, reducing from 24% to 15% of portfolio. I see the problems in the European financials to be bullish for the US dollar, bearish for metals. Reduced stock positions in metals and commodity producers as the push in the dollar will lower the stock prices. Oil short term looks flat. Cash is good. I intend to keep about 50% in US treasury bills until later in the year. When I see a bargain, I will reenter the market. Short US Financials, as they will trend lower for the next few months.
Sold my BNI today rather than wait till March to get $100/share; rationale, by March it will buy less than today. Buy foreign and commodites as inflation will drive up the price as supply dwindles and demand increases. Capitalism can only indure with inflation, printing of the phony dollar (and now other legal tender); like in a game of Monopoly, when the properties are all held by one or two, it’s curtains unless……………
Martin:
As an investment professional in Cary, North Carolina (next door to Raleigh, in the east-central part of our state), managing my own financial services practice, I developed a proprietary, momentum-based investment model two years ago for certain clients who are inclined to take advantage of such a strategy.
I’m both happy and proud to say that my model has been very successful to date.
To address the questions in your February 3 e-mail, and in the broadest context, I’m underweight U.S. stocks at present. And regarding the U.S., even though inflation hasn’t yet reared its ugly head (Sidebar: Remember the ’70s and early ’80s??!!!?!), I’m gradually liquidating my clients’ exposure in any Treasury other than a very short duration or, for that matter, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. These latter two remain viable “safety net” fixed income choices, in my opinion.
Your readers seem to have the right direction regarding asset allocation but, I believe, in some cases are “betting the farm” with overweights in too few asset classes. At best, they’re taking on too much risk.
My model continues to favor certain plays in commodities, currencies, emerging markets, developed foreign markets and, oh yeah, let’s not forget the good ol’ U.S. of A.! (Even in a volatile and potentially troubled equity market, there’s most ALWAYS excellent American sectors and sub-sectors within which to invest money).
Perhaps my most advantageous strategy, though, has been to gradually withdraw from mutual funds. Don’t get me wrong. Investing my clients’ money in mutual funds propelled my career in the ’90s, for example. Nevertheless, with mutual funds, because of configuration, you’re in this investment until you decide otherwise. A lot of folks lost a ton of money from September 2008 through (at least) March 2009 because, basically, they reacted as the proverbial “deer in the headlights.”
In contrast, exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”), as you well know, resemble the characteristics of stocks, with the exception that, by definition, an ETF provides diversification to a greater or lesser degree.
Therefore, I’ve introduced my momentum-type clients to ETFs and further, to keep emotion out of the equation (at least for the most part), I’ve also strongly recommended putting in SELL STOPS at a below-purchase price per share with which a given client feels comfortable.
Bottom line, as the old saying goes: “Cut your losses and let your winners ride.”
I hope this helps.
Thanks for your investment e-mail services. You and your colleagues do good work, and I always look forward to reading your value-added messages!
My best,
Jim
___________________________
James F. Mohar
Managing Director
J.F. Mohar Investments
Cary, North Carolina
Business Direct: 919-380-0123
E-Mail: jfmohar@nc.rr.com
_________________________
Hi: My portfolio at present is (and I’m a Canadian with a not US perspective and retired)
- 50% Cdn Corp. bonds (BBB plus or better( no Gov’t or Municipal Bonds)).
- 7.5% Preferred stocks (Mostley Cdn banks w/ 1.5% Geo.Weston,no US)
- 15% Cdn Income Trusts Mostly oil & gas w some REIT’s, pipelines, utilities & retail.
- 10% Emerging Mkt ETF’s
- 10% Gold & precious metal stocks, gold & silver bullion ETF’s
- 7.5% cash
Richard
Hold 60% Vanguard Limited Term Tax free Bond and the remainder in Vanguards Tech ETF ‘VGT’. A depression is still a real possibility. Holding commodities and foreign stocks when demand for goods is showing a peak right now is insane! All those empty houses going into foreclosure have lots of copper, wood, steel, etc. and no one is buying them. But you can’t hardly get into an apple store to buy an iphone. Not a lot of commodities in those iphones but one hell of a lot of technology and potential cheap entertainment.
I’ve never invested in gold or other precious metals. I have an MLP and a couple of oil stocks which are Canadian trusts. One stock is big pharma, and a couple of financials. The majority of my retirement money is in bank CDs with reputable banks I learned about on your web site. Thanks for the info on banks I think about a year ago or so. I’ve never tried currency trading although I know a fellow that thinks it’s great. My investments are kept simple, no leveraging, no futures investing, no options, etc. Fact is, I don’t know much about that kind of investing and am reluctant to try it.
Dear Martin,
I am already retired and concerned with the preservation of capital. About two weeks ago, immediately after the China news and the President’s speech about the banks, I sold almost every sector. Without China’s current growth, my individual commodity stocks and emerging market funds seemed risky. Even established major US “defensive” stocks with business in China and emerging markets had not been doing well in January. Gold and silver stocks were also losing value. I already had over 50% in various bonds and bond funds, and I went to all cash from equities, gold and silver. Now I am looking for income and have bought a few high dividend energy stocks and limited partnerships. I plan to buy some foreign large cap equity funds, but in developed countires rather than emerging markets. I will hold the rest in cash for now. What do you think of this? Thanks for all of your help.
Nancy
Hi,
over the past year I have had to build a up a portfolio from scratch. As I am resident in a foreign country and am unable to transact while Wall Street is open, it has been a costly but rewarding exercise. My first attempt was a portfolio based on ETF’s which was a total disaster (even though the asset allocation was across the board) I then relooked the market and decided to rather build a medium term portfolio ( 3year) based on what I knew and what seemed a reasonable strategy.
I allocated as follows:- 20% invested in USA giants with good track and management records and full order books.
Then 25% in Bullion ETF,s : 5% went into miners with excellent prospects (coal,oil, gold and uranium) 15 % into a diversification of Chinese companies and ETF’s, and 20% into defensive ETF’s, The balance of 15% is held in cash for medium term buying opportunities when they arise.
Because of the uncertainty when dealing with currencies I have stayed away from them as I suspect that the market is going to be volatile and deliver some nasty surprises and manipulations in the next few years – besides which – I am an investor and not a trader.
My portfolio had been about 70 % money market, 10% bonds, 20% U.S. stocks for about the past 2 years. I saw the risk of big downturn when the DOW was near its peak. And I sold most of my stock mutual funds close to high, and didn’t experience significant loss during 2009.
Now I am attempting to restructure, following a very basic global socio economic risk analysis. There are several scenarios I think about, some good, some bad. These can overlap with each other in time.
1. Loose monetary policy in the United States leads to inflation.
2. Asian investors in U.S. Treasuries lose interest, and move their trillions of dollars elsewhere, driving up interest rates.
3. War breaks out in the Middle East (viz. Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas vs. Israel).
4. War breaks out in the Far East (viz. China vs. Taiwan, or China takes over the South China Sea, or North Korea starts shooting missiles at Japan, etc.)
5. Peace and security, with strong economic growth in the U.S., and Asia.
6. Deepening recession in the U.S. and Europe, Asia continues growing.
7. Global recession.
Here is how I see U.S. stocks, interest rates, foreign stocks, gold and oil responding.
Scenario 1: interest rates rise, people sell stocks, seeking better returns in bonds. Bad for U.S. stocks, U.S. dollar. Good for foreign stocks.
Scenario 2: The U.S. treasuries gets dumped wholesale. Interest rates rise, rapidly, U.S. dollar goes down. Bond prices collapse quickly. Gold and oil rise, as an alternative investment compared to U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks go nowhere. Asian stocks continue to grow.
Scenario 3: War in the middle east: gold and oil go up. U.S. dollar goes up. U.S. and Asian stocks go nowhere. (Mideast stocks go down).
Scenario 4: War in far east: gold and oil go up. U.S. dollar goes up. Asian stocks go down.
Scenario 5: Industrial demand for oil and gold will increase, driving up prices. U.S. Stocks go up, U.S. stocks will rise along with Asian stocks.
Scenario 6: U.S. stocks go down. Asian stocks go up. Demand for oil and gold stays high due to the economic growth of Asia.
Scenario 7: All stocks go down, as economic activity drops, and demand for oil and gold decrease.
I can’t tell which of these scenarios will play out over the next year or two. But I can tell from the analysis, that U.S. stocks may go up or down. The U.S. dollar may go up or down. Asian stocks may go up or down. But demand for oil and gold just goes up, unless there is a truely peaceful global recession.
So I am buying gold and silver, some as ETFs, some as mining companies, some of which are U.S. based, some are foreign. Am reducing exposure to general U.S. stocks, and increasing exposure to China-region stocks. And am not keeping any bonds (other than money market), in case interest rates rise, and bond prices fall suddenly.
It would be nice to have some quantitative way of doing this analysis, and developing a risk adverse portfolio for bad times, but that can rise in good times. But for now this is just seat of the pants guessing.
I don’t have to theorize what I would do if I could start over. I AM starting over. I have a small nest egg that stands between me and total financial disaster. I need to hear a balanced advisory that gives some lucrative opportunities and spells out the risks along with suggestions of conservative investments that may not guarantee great returns but help me make money without bankrupting myself.
I tend to think that Brazil is the best bet. If I am invested there and all hell breaks out here at least I could move there.
I have mainly (60%) sunk my capital into Bric ETFs and Commodity ETFs while keeping a quarter of that in long term, dividend-yielding stock. I have split the other 40% on currencies (using options) and niche stocks, some for dividend potential and others for short term capital growth and profit taking.
I would divide my assets into three classes of investment. The first third would be precious metals using EFT’s and at least 20% held in gold bullion I keep in a safe depsit box. The next third would concentrate on Us government short term paper including some TIPS. Lastly 50% of the remaining assets would be in US income stocks with a proven track record and the balance in off shore (BRIC) EFT’s. I need help finding some of these opportunities and refining the percentage of asset allocation.
Worse case scenario it all goes to hell in a hand backet so I’d go bac to basic needs like food, water, heat & Electricity and transportation to get the stuff
I think the overall market will be basically sideways for the next decade. So my approach for building a portfolio will be to have it divided amongst major asset classes: domestic and international stocks, government and corporate bonds, commodities, currency, cash and in general within each class favor securities that pay a safe dividend and/or can be purchased at a technically low price. In a given asset class if the overall trend is negative I would leave that portion of the portfolio in cash, otherwise I would look for secutiies within that class that have the greatest relative strength and a positive trend.
alage fuel will be huge for long term investors.
Good grief, does all this sound confusing to anyone else? I am a novice investor, and I just recently read your book, Martin—”The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”—and I thought we were all supposed to be getting into cash and short term treasury bills. I came to your blog looking for further insights from YOU. Listening to what everyone else is doing (which is so diverse) isn’t really helping me. I think what Denny D. and Tony posted sound the most reasonable to me. Do you, Martin, still believe we are headed for a depression, and are you still standing behind the suggestions you made in your book? (Or is it dated, now?) I just started using it as my guide. Or do you dare not express it in your blog because you have such a large following that you may actually set off the decline? Is there any chance you could set up an advice call-in or write-in service and charge a small fee for each question? I currently need some specific advise as to HOW to move out of the funds I’m in and get into a safe position if some of my choices are limited. Thank you so much for all the help you’re providing. I believe you are trying to steer us in the right direction, but many of us may not be listening or understanding you correctly.
Hello Dr. Weiss and Associates–
Well, this is one that I’m going to have to think over. I’ve already done one of the things I would have done if I could start over–today I put in a sell order with my broker for my Itt Industries stock–in reading about the company’s history, I came across several things that I don’t feel comfortable with ethically, so I’m selling those stocks and putting the proceeds in my cash account with Edward Jones. The money from that, I can reinvest later when the stock market is way down. At this point I have no money in the financials or bonds, and would have to do more research/study before I feel confident in choosing which, if any, are good. I’m not into currencies, because I don’t understand them well enough, plus, they are tooooooo risky for me. As I am able, I will continue to invest (in my EdJones cash account if nothing else right now) and wait for the right time to buy as per reading Money and Markets, Uncommon Wisdom, Safe Money Report, and Dividend Superstars. It’s tempting to add to my GLD and ishares silver right now, but I keep in mind that the key for someone like me is to maintain diversification. Now, if I should win the lotto–it’s fun to imagine what kind of portfolio I could build!……but I will have to think about that, and perhaps blog on it sometime this weekend:)……………..
Thank you again for giving us these opportunities to blog
God bless you,
Lisa R.
I prefer mutual funds, and I like the following mix:
Foreign Stocks: 15%
Including Europe and Mediterranean Emerging Markets; Asia, particularly China
Domestic Stocks: 65%
Including Small Cap Stocks, Blue Chip Growth; Mid Cap Growth, Mid Cap Value,
Capital Appreciation
Gold and Silver: 10%
Cash and Bonds; both international and domestic: 10%
Martin, I’m wearing a neck brace from watching this market. Investing is a joke and nothing seems to be sacrade.. Day trading is the only chance a person has providing he sits by his computer with the trade page up..50 day 200 day lines seem to mean nothing. Gold, the only thing of value, is tanking while the worthless dollar is going up. Is that a good contrarin play?? I’m in approx. 80% cash now with annuties looking good. I sure hope you have some good answers to all this.. Rod
Martin: Lessons learned, work with the here and now and with what one knows. With X amount of cash one can step outside of the “her and now” but, no more that 10%. The markets for the next ? years will be field of land mines randomly placed. Predicting will be as accurate as predicting the weather in Kansas by fools and foreigners. Ok, always use stops/trailing stops and use covered calls for Ins. to manage down side losses. Take your losses just as you take your profits, with dicipline. For now work this short term and watch the VIX$, over 30 watch put premiums and carfully sell some puts for some income, know what your doing here! That said, my growth and risk monies, sittn on the side-line for now, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week. Research and manage RISK. Long with dividend paying consumer stocks that are fat in cash with international exposure, PEP, KO, YUM etc. I know energy and am a producer as such. MLPs and Royalty Trusts for income. Some energy stocks that are not locked to the US regulatory mess, PBR, PTR etc. Energy services, SLB, CAM etc. Also a producer of grains and cattle and I work these commitdies as markets dictate. DIRT, one can hedge inflation and deflation with dirt and also generate cash flow in good times and bad. Gold can’t do this, productive dirt and gold value will parallel over time. So dirt is my #1 asset with liquidity currency Gold & Silver at #2. My dream portfolio for 2010 is what I have been building for the last forty years knowing what I know and working with what I have today. Knowledge is 360. My model is not for everyone, I get to know indepth the companies/sector that I invest in first (fundamentals) and work the numbers (technicals). If it doesn’t read well and doesn’t add up, use the “walk away” and put your hard earned cash where it will work for you. Thanks
Happy trails Dr j
Dear Martin, I no knowledgeable boffin, retired and reliant on my investments which are
locked into four portfolios with my wife Sheilah. I have a fairly wide choice from Merchant Investors, Bristol. I have what I think is a fairly balanced group, all in Unit
Trusts. I print out the whole investments available at the end of each month and
compare how each progresses. At the moment I am in Allianz RCM B.R.I.C.
Developing markets (m.I). JPM Morgan Nat. resources. Black Rock Gold and General.
Threadneedle Latin American. L.&.G. Pacific Index trust. andOld Mutual Corporate Bond.
Genetrally they go up and down and when they are up, I take some money which is
tax-free (up to a point, which I never reach). We shall never be millionaires but we’re
happy enough.
20% currencies
60% cash
20% metals
I Use the currencies as my high risk investments and then allocate them to my low risk holdings. My high risk investieng helps to grow my portfolio tremendously then, I just allocate them as I see fit. looking at some international real estate as well ( In case I have to jump a plane to another country)
Greetings, I don’t really know what to do, have some precious metals, cash, and a place to live paid off. I have a government pension, and keep my expense low, so I’m able to save. It certainly would be nice to actually have some diversified growth investments for income in the future. My best advice and the only thing I know for sure that’s important is staying healthy and if your lucky enough to be happy that’s a real bonus.
While it’s important to pay attention to the trend, there are other factors that need to be taken into account such as the technicals of the price of the stock or etf, the effect of the economy, and the cycle.
Martin, My 401k choices are limited so I have been keeping all my funds in money market and VIPIX-TIPS.However after getting your SMR I think I might be at risk with the coming bond rate hikes.I took a big hit in real estate and stocks so I am trying to be very cautious about reentering the market.I had a nice gain on this last run up and sold in November.Maybe a little early but I feel pretty safe after what has been occurring the last couple of weeks. Also have applied for a weiss fund account for my safe money. Thank you.
SHOULD I STAY THE COURSE IN STOCKS OR BEGIN SELLING? JANET NADLER
If I had the answers, I’d be retired, or writing newsletters and making a living off ideas. I’ve read about the bankruptcy of America for over THIRTY years, years in which it influenced my investing decisions in a negative way. I agree that the nation is headed for financial disaster, but as they say, timing is everything in investing. Help!
To fellow financial survivors,
Conservative allocation to play the long term destruction of global currencies, especially the dollar after this run up to US$, which will take the $Index to 90+ :
Canada ETF (leverage to natural resource stocks, Canadian $, & smart banks)
Brazil ETF (average in on dips, leverage to oil, resources, Brazilian real)
Taiwan ETF (leverage to China’s 20-year growth plan)
Aussie ETF (average in on dips for exposure to resource stocks, Aussie $)
US Global Franchise Dividend Stocks (JNJ, PG, KO, GIS, IBM, PEP/YUM type stocks)
% of allocation to each based on your age, but 20% each as a default.
Get positioned over a one year period and ultimatedly be fully invested. Cash pays 0 !
Investing today is the most hazardous I’ve ever seen in many years.
Actually, things change so fast that you have to be nimble almost daily or even by the hour to be successful. I don’t trust foreign stocks as you never know what or who to beleive. Domestic stocks with all the existing rules are even difficult to keep up with due to all the finagling that goes on by many companies. I believe that a portfolio should include solid companies that pay good dividends in various sectors such as consumer related, energy, technology and utilities.
It would also include about 10 to 15% in precious metal miners
for some inflation protection. I don’t like options or ETFs although many investors thrive on them. I think you have to be on the inside looking out, connected in other words, to make money on these vehicles. You also have to stay tuned 24/7 which I can’t do because of other things I have to do. These are my thoughts for this market at this time.
Very interested in your prescription for success in these
challenging times. Capital preservation is primary for
me.
Martin,
I look for mostly medium sized companies with strong earnings, low or no debt, great rather unique products that are in demand. As I stated earlier, I have a small % in small companies with great products that in my opinion have a great future. I also am probably too heavy in metals, but I’m convinced that sector will continue mostly up because of U.S. economy, weaker $ and future inflation, which is inevidible because of Gov’t believing they can spend our way to more prosperous times instead of LOWER taxes and LESS, SMALLER Gov’t!!
Rich
Dear Martin,
I used to have a portfolio [ASX stocks(20%), fx(USD/cad, EUR/AUD, USD/CHF, total 60%), PMCP gold(20%)] but sold all into AUD mid Jan’10 as I presently live in Australia. Now, I want to follow your advices on ETF investments, particularly, stock indexes, currencies, precious metals, oil mining and Chinese Real Estates ETF’s. I’d really appreciate if you could recommend me a few of ETF brokers in Australia for the above ETF investments. Thank you for your kind assistance.
Kind Regards,
Rick
In order to decide how to invest, trends of societies around the globe must be considered.
Basic premise ONE: Markets over the next 20 years must accomodate wealth and power migrating to the younger more vibrant and growing economies of the East.
Basic premise TWO: The NON-elected Chinese communist government (run by engineers and economists) has more resources plus better command and control capability to prepare for the future than the West through their elected/appointed govt officials and debt strapped economies.
Basic premise THREE: The next 2 decades will be marked by volatility, no matter how hard those in positions of authority try to contain or control it.
Examples of likely events:
1. Soverign debt auctions in the West become so weakly subscribed that competitive devaluation of Western currencies is undertaken which drives investors into the dollar, worsening US trade deficits.
2. Western military budgets get trimmed to accomodate Western social programs, weakening US influence and flexibility around the world.
3. Chinese will be tempted to deploy their military to trouble spots to preserve overseas Chinese resource rights.
4. An IMF currency will supplant the US dollar in global trade as part of a new convertability regime for all world currencies.
One answer: Keep wealth in the US govt short obligation debt but watch silver price. When silver drops to $8 per oz. – switch wealth into physical silver.
Hello Martin,
What would you think about loading up on ETF QID?
Hi Martin,
I have been receiving your letters via E-mail for the past 2 or so years and have listened in on a number of the webcams that you have done. Would you suggest that basically the same information that is given to US investors be applied to Canadian investors? If not, what area of investments might be changed?
Thanks,
Tracy
How are we contributing to the recovery of our North American economies, when we invest so much of our capital in the economies of other countries…yes, “our competitors”…won’t it all come back to haunt us someday? Where is our conscience and loyalty?
Sincerely…Art
In your latest letter you stated that interest rates will go up on fixed rate mortgages. How is that possible or was it just a typo?
I currently as of 03-01-10 moved my assets to * International Small cap 1.7 Cash-
98.3 Stocks Small domestic holdings 40% * Emerging Markets cap 0.1 Cash- 99.8
Stocks Small Domestic holdings 20% * Emerging Markets Value 0.1 Cash-99.7 Stocks
Middle Range Domestic Holdings 20% * Emerging Markets Cash 0.2 Cash 99.8 Stocks
Large Domestic Holdings 40%- I went 100% Foreign for now. My faith is just not in the Government of the USA, I believe a true Bubble CRASH is soon to come. I do watch daily for market changes.
Excuse, Large Domestic Holdings is 20% not 40%.
All of the below articles are saying $20-36B are leaving “money market mutual fund assets” weekly. If these numbers are accurate, where’s the money going?
•Money fund assets fell to $2.964T in latest week
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Money-fund-assets-fell-to-apf-3504659815.html?x=0&.v=2
AP(Thu, Apr 8)
•Money fund assets fell to $2.983T in latest week
AP(Thu, Apr 1)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.013T in latest week
AP(Thu, Mar 25)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.090T in latest week
AP(Fri, Mar 12)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.090T in latest week
AP(Thu, Mar 11)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.126T in latest week
AP(Thu, Mar 4)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.166T in latest week
AP(Thu, Feb 25)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.161T in latest week
AP(Thu, Feb 18)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.198T in latest week
AP(Thu, Feb 11)
•Money fund assets fell to $3.205T in latest week
AP(Thu, Feb 4)
i AM CONCERNED FOR MY GRANDSONS THE MOST. wHEN i LOOK AT MY NEIGHBORS CHILDREN PLAYING MY HEART CRIES OUT FOR THEM. THEY WILL NEVER HAVE ALL THE OPPORTUNITIES i HAVE ENJOYED. I AM NEAR THE END OF LIFE’S JOURNEY AT 81. i HAVE SEEN THE GOOD USA AND ENJOYED THE MANY ADVANTAGES, BUT I FEAR FOR THE RIOTS, THE LOOTING, THE STEALING, THE INVASION OF HOMES AND THE RAGE AGAINST THE ELDERLY THAT IS SURE TO FOLLOW. OUR ONLY HOPE IS IN THE LORD JESUS CHRIST.
I agree that the Lord is the ultimate answer, but for now, whose agenda are we following? I propose that it is
directed by Zig Brezinski of the CFR whose Hot Button is “One World Govmt with One Central Bank to control all the world’s money. First, BHO must destroy our Sovereignty, then add us to the NA Union and then to the New world Order. Sound like conspiracy? HOW CAN YOU EXPLAIN OUR CURRENT SITUATION, UNLESS IT WAS THRU FOLLOWING SOMEONE’S agenda THAT SEEKS TO DESTROY OUR constitutional
GOVERNMENT AND TAKE AWAY OUR FREEDOM. WE HAVE A MUSLEM president WHO IS INTENT ON MAKING US A mUSLEM COUNTRY. I FEAR THAT HE WILL CREATE A SITUATION PRIOR TO NOV. THAT WILL BE AN EXCUSE TO DECLARE marshal Law and give him an excuse to remain in the White House. I pray that I am wrong & would love to hear others opinion.
chas. bradley
Eliminate all the crooks from Wall Street ( who got us in this mess in the first place); and I will start investing back in North America.
50% precious metals
25% energy
25% cash
about 7 % higher
Martin, you question is the core issue of investing. What are the best choices for investment for 2010 and 2011 and a always be willing to sell what you have without developing sticky fingers base on groundless bias. I certainly do not have a crystal ball, but based on the reading and reviews I have done my current allocation is:
25% Precious metals (from the global sovereign debt concerns)
5% Oil/Energy (believing that we have reached peak oil and that prices must go up)
70% Cash or equivalents (in preparation for huge buying opportunites at the low side of the
market once the double dip recession seems near a bottom)
Presently I am all but out of precious metal stocks waiting to see if Gold returns back to the 1260 area. I am heavy in inverse ETF’s (drv, edz, typ) expecting the dow’s near term down to be below 9400, and then continuing down from there. I have about 15% in some sort of oil/energy stock. Getting uneasy about the future of oil. I have about 15-20% in commodities, i.e. sugar, and coffee, and planning to add an ETF that includes wheat, corn, and soybeans.