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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Money and Markets has the sharpest, most informed readers of any publication I know of.
The high quality of your responses on my personal blog never ceases to amaze me, and yesterday was no exception!
No fewer than 900 readers logged in to answer our questions of the day:
"Will America survive?
"How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
"Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?"
Unsurprisingly, given today’s economic realities, the vast majority agree that the U.S. economy and stock market could fall much further in the weeks and months ahead:
Chaloke from Bangkok says that we will have to pay for our unprecedented deficit spending.
William W., Earnest H. and many more believe America will survive this, but as a socialist nation, given the massive power grabs we’ve seen Washington make so far.
Charlie B. loves America and cherishes our founding documents, but fears that our best days are long over.
Bill N., a sailor, compares our current predicament to a storm at sea: We know there will be rough seas ahead but if we listen to good advice, prepare for the hard times and ride them out, the storm will eventually pass.
So what’s the best way for an investor to profit at a time like this?
John W. says he prefers an inverse ETF on Treasuries, an investment designed to profit from falling bond prices. He also likes writing covered calls on a gold ETF to earn extra income on his gold position.
Chaloke points out that, historically, investments in corn, rice, oats, wheat and soybeans have produced gains of up to 446% in times like these.
Richard S. and Jim M., have hitched their wagons to the long-term bearish trend as members of my Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio (now closed to new members and unlikely to reopen.) But they’re also eager to find ways to time short-term moves in the markets in order to take advantage of bear market rallies.
The tale of two investors:
Which one best describes you?
I was particularly struck by this tug-of-war between two distinctly different types of investment mindsets among our readers:
On the one hand, scores of our readers are keeping their eye on the ball — the massively bearish fundamentals of the economy. They know it’s only a matter of time until the overriding bearish mega-trend reasserts itself, and they want to be in the right place at the right time.
They understand that they’ll tread water or even have to tolerate temporary paper losses during lulls in the action or in bear market rallies. But they’re also confident that the overriding long-term bearish trend will ultimately pay them for their patience — in spades.
On the other hand, many of our readers seem eager to make money RIGHT NOW. Standing on the sidelines and watching others profits in these bear market bounces is driving them crazy.
They understand there’s a risk associated with bucking the long-term trend, and trying to jump on these short-term rallies. But to them, the profit potential outweighs those risks — and they’re asking for help to trade these shorter-term moves profitably.
So here’s today’s question:
What kind of investor are YOU?
Are you content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that you’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
Or are you itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend?
Just scroll down and use the form at the end of this blog posting to tell me what you think!
Giving me your answers will go a long way towards helping us help you with recommendations and tools designed to fit your investing style hand-in glove.
And as always, my team and I will meet you on my blog to address your concerns, answer your questions and help any way we can.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 799 comments… read them below or add one }
Aggressively trading the market requires the investment of a lot of time
watching the markets as well as a lot of knowledge of what you are doing.
I don’t have either the time or the knowledge; therefore, I prefer
participating in a longer term strategy such as the Weiss Contrarian
and Money and Markets.
I would like to trade the bear bounce using a trailing stop/loss to protect from a big drop.
Martin:
I prefer to wait in short term treasury bills (thanks to you and the “Safe Money Report”) until the interest rates rise to very high levels and then put the bulk of my money in long term treasuries to support me through retirement. I am 62 years old now and still working to keep from being bored. It is my belief that the US will survive but economically we will return to times similar to the 1950-60’s. Back the (way back then for some of us) peope bought houses they could afford and had to put 20% down, people had one car but it was paid-for, people saved about 10% of everything they earned. Speculation was limited to professional speculators and everyone else worked hard for a living. People survived and prospered based on their inginuity and frugality and not on wheeling and dealing.
Tom C.
Charlotte, NC
I fit into the catagory of the bear. I have invested heavily in inverse ETFs and a definate Contrarian Investor. I do believe that there may be some nice profits to be made on the other side with investments such as certain energy sectors, raw materials and commodities. These should be short term investments with profit being the driving factor. I wonder about scattering some investments in stem cell research and nanotechnology, but I haven’t made any moves in that direction, yet. I wish that I knew the government’s plans as far as deep well geothermal and hydrogen technology.
As a retiree approaching his mid-80s, I lean to the conservative side, waiting it out and playing safe — but a bit sorry I didn’t get into GLD when it was 87 as your staff recommended. I’m also considering Vanguard’s High Yield Bond fund which performed well during the last crisis, and is performing well again — invested in mostly AA to bb rated “junk bonds.” It’s difficult to “decide to act” with the market’s gyrations, however, so my funds are sitting in a Treasury Money Market fund awaiting Martin’s BUY signal when the tide changes.
We plan to stay the course with the inverse ETF’s and buy more GLD. We are members of the Million Dollar Portfolio and you and Claus seem to be right on track. Right now patience is the name of the game.
I’m a trader, always have been, always will be. Some of my best profit gains have been when the market is sideways, or falling. I think sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen is a recipe for disaster. “No guts, no glory”.
JV
Hi!
I’m 83 years old and in relatively good health, but wise enough not to invest for long term gains. I’ve been investing in stocks since I was 21. My first was Rosefield Packing Co. Its product: Skippy Peanut Butter. Bought it at $8, sold it for a 1,000% profit when Best Foods bought them. I thought “Wow, this is easy!” Not so.
I’ve been buying and selling in the current market, primarily using the Oxford Club and your $1 million Contrarian portfolio as my advisers. Present position:
waiting for profits. (“Patience wins the prize!”)
If you use any of this on your website, and have (want) to identify me, please just use “Paul T.”. Thanks.
Mr. Martin———
Due to several reasons I recently was forced into retirement. I am a charter member of the MDCP and follow it closely, mainly because your advice helped me avoid very large losses during the summer and fall of 2008. In my IRA, I appropriated $1,500,000 to follow it with. This is a large portion of total wealth. I am concerned that there is a real possibility that this could be confiscated by the the US Government. Should I have these concerns NOW?
cheers———–BW
I must be missing something. I do not see socialism at all in the US. Just think health care.
Trying to move ahead of the “waves” is called timing in my book. Since I have no crystal ball, timing is out. Honestly, investing (putting my assets at risk) for the long term makes no sense to me now either, in the current “who knows what’s going to happen or when” storm environment. So, keeping my money in cash and CD’s or similar investments seems prudent now. When the storm clears, I will send my ships back out.
Martin I am a trader who uses technical charting to make my
trading decisions.Though i know that the pervasive long term
trends are bearish, i am not comfortable being short in a
bear market rally. I basic all go with the flow on a daily basis,
long or short.
I am willing to wait, but, believing that oil will eventually hit new highs, amd irritated by not owning Canadian Oil trusts and other related stocks such as pipe lines, while I see their priceses going up. Do you expect to see them fall again?
I think the market will do well over the next 6-9 months. After that period of time we will have to wait and see.
I am long term investor interested in leveraging the dominant trend in the market, with the following qualifications.
There are multiple dominant trends: substantial deterioration of U.S. economy, major devaluation of U.S. dollar and corresponding drop in purchasing power, bull market in agriculture/metals/energy, and economies such as China (and possibly India) breaking out independently. I am not sure how to leverage these trends in a consistent manner.
Long term only in hard assets, commodities, agriculture, metals – but I thrive by aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend
I am a long term trend investor, but I do occassionally place short term trades with my speculative money. Thanks for all your good work.
I am certainly discouraged lately. Some bets against the market are killing me right now and have cost me many thousands. Despite that I continue to hold to my belief that we are headed for another market collapse. I am holding my positions despite being trampled by the Bulls. If history proves I was dead wrong it will certainly have been the most expensive error I mad in a decade. Could I be wrong???? It’s that tiny bit of doubt that is giving me sleepless nights.
Thanks for a good daily read. all the best to you.
Hi Martin,
I´m Rani from Bolivia. I am a long-time reader of MAM, also Real Wealth Report, Red Hot Global Resources, and a fan of yours and your staff.
I have been building my cash stash, selling equities as you have been recommending for over a year…Better late than never, I´ve partially cought this rally.
I haven´t sold my inverse recommended funds from your letters, and other letters that I subscribe to.. I am waaaay down on SKF and SRS, still holding…Recently I bought some FAZ, and I´m anxious for any input and timing on short funds…. Keep it up, thanks for keeping us on the safe side, but I wouldn´t mind the juice once in a while….
as i said yesterday. i’m going to hold on for what looks like the 70’s ride again. 10, 12 years. we havent seen the bottom yet. our contry is strong, our leaders are weak. if we love america we must be ready to pick up the pieces when this bunch is done. we’ll rebuild, from the ground up if we must. but we will still have to pay for the waste that we are seeing today. i’m going to plant a garden.
Good afternoon, would it be wise to exchange US dollars for foreign currencies such as australian or canadian dollars or others? or would a hedge with gold and gold mining shares be sufficient against loss of value in a US bank? I looked into everbank and I have about 250k US and am afraid of losing purchasing power. thank you
Hi Martin,
I have enormous respect for you and what you have been doing. As a result, I have positioned myself in a number of resource stocks and gold mining stocks. For many, I have written covered calls against some of them. Fortunately or unfortunately, many of my covered call positions are “under water” deeply, so I will probably let the stocks be called away on June 20th. On the other hand, I have just entered into positions in “SH” (the S&P 500 inverse) and “SRS” (the real estate double inverse). It seems like we are approaching the prespice of a steep cliff, and that we cannot see how soon the cliff will approach or how deep the ravine/canyon will be. Any thoughts?
May the Lord bless you in all that you do.
Max D.
Max D.
Martin,
I have been a long time subscriber to your Safe Money Newsletter but even before
my original subscription, my investment concern has been never to lose principal. So
over the years,I have maintained the bulk of my portfolio in 3 month T Bills and the rest has been incommodities. Currently the only commodity in my portfolio is gold. I am 78 and so the handwriting is on the wall. Risk for me at this stage of the game is not acceptable.
Thanks
LSchlachter
As I don’t have a lot of money to invest, I would like to build it up quickly to be in a position to avail of the ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunities that you say will be available down the line.
Martin:
I have been reading your material for quite some time now! Let me take a moment and provide you my thoughts on what we are experiencing today, where we are going and the opportunities ahead.
First of all I think it is important to place the financial and economic mess that we are currently experiencing in perspective. This not the Great Depression. This is not 1929.
Yes our financial house is in tremendous disarray but I believe the Dow suffered a bigger percentage decline in the 1973-1974 bear market! Even double digit interest rates AND double digit unemployment in the 1982-1983 bear market could not prevent an economy as resilient as ours from returning to growth. I prefer NOT to discuss the October 1987 stock market crash – that was a correction long overdue and promopted by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan raising interest rates in May 1987.
Just as FDR found it necessary with the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934 to place ever greater restrictions on a Wall Street oblivious to small investor protections, today I believe that President Obama and the Congress have no greater obligation than to do the same today. Only time will heal our financial wounds. Yes deficits are huge and perhaps still growing leaving both us now and our children with something to think about for years to come. However as destructive as capitalism can become out of it can emerge the new foundation for what will hopefully become a better balanced and more trustworthy economy and not one dominated by Wall Street investment product machinations that place all of us at risk!
America’s best days are ahead. But it will require more hard work from all of us as China continues to hold ever increasing amounts of our debt. And we will need to promote our educational and technological abilities to maintain our standard of living for our citizens. Perhaps I am a born optimist but I believe we as a country have been through many terrible times only to have learned from them and improved.
I can only hope that we have learned enough of the lessons today so that politics does not interfere with the solutions that our citizens so desperately require!!
Keep up the great work Martin.
Very truly yours
Michael Ray
I would like to savewhat we worked hard for and make more before we loose or liberty and/or the gov’t takes more.
I’m content will a longer term strategy in this market. I don’t see any good news and the market still goes up because someone reports that monthly numbers aren’t as bad as anticipated.
I’m the investor who gets frustrated when the market seems to not make any sense any more. However since I’m 79, my prime object is to keep the money I have –and not try to catch the stocks when they are going up but own the longer term investments. I have devoted only a small amount of my money towards the contrarian portfolio – but thought I would give it a chance. The rest of my money is in treasuries and cd’s – not making much money but not losing it either.
Well, I was happy to swim around and ride the mood-swing. But the mood has been on crazy pills too long. But coming up Thursday is going to be a real test. Not sure if I would be short t-bills when the FED unleashes the QE II. I do want to be short the dollar…
It’s all a big ugly bet right now on what the clown posse will do come Thursday.
Gold seems safe enough either way.
Martin,
I am curious about the strength of credit unions. They have never been mentioned when talking of secure financial institutions in which to place your money. I do know that credit unions do not take risks in the mortgage market like the traditional banks do. Is there a website to find the ratings on credit unions that are financially stable?
I am a long term investor content to have investments that I believe will profit over time.
I am primarily invested in T-Bills and their associated Money Market Funds as well as precious metals (bullion, stocks, and mutual funds). I am particularly interested in silver which I believe is being manipulated by short sellers and will skyrocket in price once the manipulators have been forced to cover their short sales. I am worried about the safety of the funds that I have in my credit union and bank but have faith that the government will honor the FDIC’s $250K per bank insurance coverage. Politically, Barack Obama and his spend/tax policies must be reversed and soon if our country is to escape the plunge into Socialism.
Martin, Thankyou for all of your advice. It truly has been a blessing for my family to have someone providing solid advice in an environment that is anything but solid ground. In answer to your querry “What kind of investor am I?” I am following your advice and am a member of the MC Portfolio. I do feel the urge to jump in but am keeping that in check. I firmly believe in what You, Claus and Mike Larson have to say. I am also VERY interested on the future of the dollar ( both short and longterm). I am extremely bearish on the Dollar long term but am looking for another pop if the US market tanks.
Matthew
Martin,
I think you have to both trade and selectively accumulate during these turbulent times.
I have been trading selectively throughout this bear market and have had some tremendous short term capital gains especially in the financial services sector with companies like Hartford, Lincoln, Genworth to name a few.
I have also been accumulating shares of one of the only great companies left in this country, the only original member of the Dow from 1896 that is GE. Long term I think it is not only a survivor, but will prosper as others fade away.
With Bernanke’s quantitative easing countering natural deflationary trends and leading to possible stagflation,I feel that I have little option but to trade the short-to-medium term swings.If I leave money in US dollars,or Sterling [I am from the UK] it loses value.I have some cash in Norwegian kroner,Canadian and Australian dollars,but even so,I feel I have to keep running just to stand still.
If the bear market rally is a good enough time to take profits, the why not – long term investments of any kind right now is a risk I think – even big companies can fall… I will prefer to trade now in a bear market rally.
I agree with everything you say I just want it all. I have inverse ETF’s that I am being patient with but I also day trade the rallies being careful not to stay in overnight. This keeps me more patient waiting for the rally to end. Thanks for such great insight.
I would like to be both of the choices. ( Hold on to long term for the profit, but also trade this market for its profits.)
Thanks for your advice. The more I read the more I seem to get the itch.
Unfortunately, I’m a conservative in how to invest, believing in long-term holdings.
Thus I’m tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I’ll ultimately have the opportunity to look for profits?
I believe some of you may be missing the point in all this that is happening. Maybe I am too.
When the dollar crashes, which it will, (this year, early next year), the rest of the world will not
want our trash. (paper)
Trading now for paper is just that. Even though the US will be trading paper after the rest of the
world refuses to accept our paper, at some point, we will have to have another system or method
of valuing money. This paper system will not survive as we know it. It has been proven over and
over, throughout history, that paper will crash and burn. No exception now.
All we are considering now, is how long it will take for the dollar to be worthless? Whether it be gold
and silver or some other method of valuing our money, you will see what I am saying before this year
is over.
Sorry Just my thoughts.
fkimbe
Long-term investments do not help retirees living on modest incomes who have watched investments plummet. Fortunately mine declined by a little over 20%. With the volatility of the market one cannot reason why some stocks rise on poor fundamentals and others decline on good fundamentals. So what’s an investor to do but ride the waves or some call it “channeling stocks” …. follow the waves of a favorite stock, buy on dips, sell on rises and so on, over and over …. a stock such as RIMM is a good example. What else is a retiree to do for current gains?
I am definitely a conservative and would be very uncomfortable trading stocks in a very temporary uptick in this bear market. If I had $500,000 to invest I would he an immediate client of Sebastian in the Weiss Capital Management’s new portfolio. I am totally impressed with his performance since 2001 and think that your team has done an incredible job of not only maintaining wealth but growing it safely in very bad times. Sebastian would make me comfortable taking some risks that I would never take personally.
Kudos to the Weiss teams.
My fear is that if the dollar is devalued and eliminated as the world economy standard, since it is a fiat economy, that it will not matter how many dollars that we make in this economy, it will be in the devalued dollar at at least an over-inflated dollar.
Wouldn’t we be better to be in hard assets like gold or buy government bonds in foreign countries, say in Switzerland?
Do you have info regarding the Perth Mint in Australia where you can buy gold and store it there on the premise? I fear that since Obama claims to want to be like FDR that he may confiscate gold held in US facilities as FDR did during his reign.
I also fear that our 401k might be confiscated, you know for the good of all, and thrown into a pot together. If that happened, it wouldn’t matter whether we protected our wealth or not. I sometimes think we should take our tax hits and take all of our money out of our 401k accounts, so no one can confiscate them.
I know this sounds very parnoid, but there you are.
Thank you for any answers to these burning questions.
I would like to see some ideas on profiting from short-term moves in the market in addition to the long term info you already give. A 30% rise in the market is a terrible thing to waste. By watching technical indicators it seems that you can get a good idea of short-term trends.
I’m interested in both long term contrarian investments and
Short term bull surge investments. Please provide your recommendations
For both. I’m a mdp member.
dr. weiss,
i am heavily invested in gold,silver,oil and nat gas.i also have the mines and producers
It is all well and good to know that the longer trend is down, but it is very difficult to be invested in inverse positions, watch your money decline as well as have no way to make income on your investment. We still have to eat, and those of us in retirement, have to resort to spending principal on daily living. We need a way to maintain while waiting for the downtrend to resume. What’s the plan here?
WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO INVEST SO I CAN GET SOME INCOME I’M AN OLD LADY
OF 82 AND HAVE LOST OVER 200000.OO THAT WAS STOLEN FROM ME WHERE I WILL
NEVER SEE A PENNY OF THAT MONEY BACK —-I’M NOW IN SHORT 3 MONTHS TREASURY
I CAN NOT AFFORD TO LOSE WHAT I HAVE LEFT WHICH 70000.00
I NEED INCOME —-AND CAN’T WORK AS I AM ILL —PRETTY STORY ?
REN
If the $ goes exceptionly low which is cetter to hold dollars or stocks? If iend with a buschel of money that will buy nothing, what have I done as our goverment is hellbent
on destroying the dollar. clyde
I want to go for the gold with gold! Protect yourself and profit.
As I see it, the overwhelming trend is for INFLATION. The opportunity is too great right now to make money playing that trend. You can’t afford to sit doing nothing -inflation will eat all your savings. I’ve been making money selling SLV and GDX puts. I just wish that I had been a little more aggressive back in April.
This market does not seem suited for long term investors, but rather, weekly traders who buy at support and sell at resistance. I do have Long term positions in gold, and a bond play using the ETF symbol TBT. Even these positions can be played for trades at support and resistance.
Finally, I plan to buy FXI for a hold but, will wait to purchase it. You see, FXI has had a significant run up and is now hitting (as of June 2 mrkt close) the 38% retracement on its weekly chart. The odds favor a retrace and the time to purchase.
You gave me good advice in the middle of August, 2007, when you warned of the coming sunami. I unloaded then and am still out,except for some GLD. However, I put the bulk of my cash into 5 year annuities so I can’t be tempted to put my toe in again.
I suppose I did the right thing ( my age is 87). Any comments?
I favor longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market.
Out of the equity market since mid-April, however a little into commodities, oil, gold and commodity currencies. Still somewhat at the sidelines waiting for the right time to get bullish into inverse ETFs.
Martin,
I’m taking both approaches: reinvest in solid dividend stocks long term as well as diversified mutual funds. These include income and foregn all which flucuate between equity and bond markets. Secondly, equities and ETF’s which focus on these sectors: precious metals, basic materials, energy and others commodities. I too purchase options against these sectors as well as utilize Mike Larson option trader strategy.
I am nervous about our future and continue to read and listen to all advise/ideas from others. Thank you for your service and concern about our future!
Steve
I’m the careful type — probably too old to ever get back to where I was, but I still
enjoy the ride.
What’s one to do having way less than $100,000–less than $20,000 ?
appreciate your emails and newletter. Sir Wm
When a nation goes bankrupt, it almost always comes out a smaller nation.
With the propaganda that the talking heads on CNBC, and others are putting out, those people who want to put theis heads in the sand have an easy way to do it.
Martin that is an interesting question. I would have to say that I am about 75% in the mindset of waiting out the longer trend Bear Market; however 25% of me wants to profit in the shorter term, be it from the “Bear Market Bounce” or short term investment designed to profit in a Bear Market enviorment …ie (Options). Is this possible?
Hi Martin,
My husband and I are members of your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. As we are within sight of retirement age, we cannot afford the risk associated with betting on short-term rallies of the market and prefer long-term income producing investments, because we believe that Social Security may not be available for us. We took your advice to get out of the market (80% of our investments are now in cash or equivalents) and are content to wait for you and Claus to use your vast experience and resources to time this one. We didn’t get burned as badly as some because we were very diversified, but still are about 45% down from our high point in June of 2008. All of the information you provide has the plus of being reasonable, logical and prudent, which is a far cry from what we hear from our broker and the mainstream media. We are content to be safe and wait out this psycho crazy time with someone we trust at the helm. Thanks for everything and thanks for caring!
Finally got my money out of Money-Market Mutual Funds and into 100% Cash. Next move, to immediately secure major part of portfolio in T-Bills. At the same time, look for some short-term return, perhaps in FDIC-insured CDs. But, be careful about what banks to use. Leave enough cash to take advantage of increasing return in 10-year Treasury Bonds (I’m too old for 30-year Treasuries). Then, sit back and see when the next ’shoe’ drops in the economy.
dr. weiss
i am heavily invested in gold,silver,oil & nat gas. i am also invested in the companies that
that produce them. my wife and i have about forty per cent of our portfolio in cash. are
we on the right track or not.
Hallo Martin,
I´m the kind of investor that prefers to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits
in the right place at the right time. Although it I do not understand very well markets behavior, and the long bear rally, I stick to your and Klaus fundamentals. I think that the market should crash at any moment. What is taking gold so long to break the $1000 barrier? Is it psycologically or is there some fundamental behind?
Thank you very much to you and Klaus for the good information you provide and for your help and concern to protect our savings.
Got bless
Martin,
I like to think of myself as a buy and hold investor, but only if I get in at the right price. I am quick to bail out and cut my losses if the market goes against me. But I often buy back in at a higher price than I sold at. I’d like to make money on the downside as well. I’ve bought SKF twice during this bear market rally only to bail out when stocks continued upward. Right now I’m fully invested in commodity and energy stocks hoping to hit the top of the rally and then switch to inverse ETF’s. But, can I do it?????
David
We are going to be Taxed at much higher rates in the future what we need is investments that are tax free with good returns
Buy and hope is gone. One must have a commitment to a technical approach and follow it with discipline.
Martin-
My view is that we will soon be off of the dollar standard. I am investing based on short term trends because I do not believe in the long term of the USA as we know it. I believe some major event will happen in the near future – man made (terrorist or something like it) or something like the swine flu – that will cause the markets accross the world to shut down and we will be forced to go to a new “one world” currency. The major players are calling for it and China is positioning itself for it…
So, you can help me negotiate this ever changing world. I am a subscriber to a couple of your services and enjoy reading your thoughts.
Martin,
My comments have been posted each time you have asked but I never seen them on your blog which is disappointing. Yet here again, I will offer my comments for what they’re worth. You can be either a short-term or long-term investor or you can be BOTH and that’s why your clients seem to want to be in both camps. First, we have to recognize that the market is never wrong and second, that there are opportunities in every market. The trouble with having an eye on the main chance (the longer term) is that you miss out on excellent minor chances (the shorter term). In focusing too hard on the biggest, most obvious target, you may fail to spot a nearer, subtler option.
Martin,
I fit in your 2nd category where I am trying to make profits no matter what I think the long term perspective is. As they say, in the long term were all dead. When the market was hitting the lows of March, I was selling puts and ended up getting assigned several stocks I wanted to own at effective prices below the market lows they hit then. The sheer size of the US economy and real decline could take years to play out. You cannot discount the power of the Fed and potential help from emerging markets toward delaying a more severe financial crisis than we have seen to date. I am retired and cannot put all my eggs in a basket that depends on that happening any time soon. I have a diverse portfolio of dividend paying stocks and ETF’s that has been doing pretty well, along with a gold ETN and SLV options. I also do a lot of options, and play things like the recent market momentum in commodities but I am quick to take profits and react to market trends. A long time before you recommended TBT, I was buying puts on the TLT when it was reaching over 120 which worked well too. I guess my philosophy goes with those that say buy and hold is dead. The market long term is just as unpredictable as the weather. Current data says global warming is coming in the next century, but that could be changed overnight by volcanic, war, or asteroid events into a nuclear winter. I believe you need to trade like a farmer taking advantage of or enduring the weather we are dealt on a day by day basis.
Martin, I am somewhat in between the two different types of investors you described.
I need to invest some of my capital in an aggressive portfolio (ETF’s, etc.) and require the balance to be kept in an account for preservation of capital due to uncertain economy. Need guidance as to how one goes about this. Thank you for your input.
As a long retired couple we are content to wait for profits downstream. We have 15% or so of our assets in gold coins and GLD Etfs. Lots in short T-BILLS. Lots of hope our pension(not gov’t) stays afloat. The aggressive approach is not appropriate for our situation. On the other hand I’m not sure I’d go for it anyway. Seems that greed is the root cause of the current depression. I just hope folks don’t get burned again!
Martin,
I fancy myself as a long term investor, however, since I am paying a premium for the Contrarian portfolio, I would also like to see some profits between the major trends. We jumped into some Reverse ETFs knowing that we would most likely take some short term losses, we should be just as bold to take a small portion of our portfolio and ride the trend for some gains. It is probably too late now, because it looks like we may be near the top of the trend, but during future rallies, we should take some chances with stop losses.
Thanks for putting the economy into perspective for me – it does make me feel somewhat confident in your outlook.
Not only am I worried about my investments, but much more about our country. If we stand for the governament take over of our engery, like the autos and banks, we will at a no return point. There seems to be no real place to be safe. Yes, there will be places to make quick money, but only to see it be devalued and worth what. Our way of living in this country is about to change and not for the better. I see now how Cuba, Hungry, and some South American countries were lead down this same path. We sit by and say it cant happen here. Reminds me of the Jews saying the train will only take us to a place to work, I just dont want to get on that train. This crazyness has got to stop. You talk to your kids and friends and all you hear is It wont happen here. I am lost as to want to really do. I have put my investments in Treasury bills and ETFs and I thank you for it. I just hope and pray someone will wake up. Thanks for giving me a place to make a comment
A strategy I can tolerate must have a means to decide that the long term strategy must be put on hold to benefit from shorter term swings. It is not acceptable to hold a bear strategy while we watch the market go against us by 40 or 50 percent or more. The 30s demonstrated that permanent bears lost money after the initial 90 % decline. Any strategy must have a way to deal with swings greatly in excess of 20 %.
The general direction of the market looking forward will be down. However I believe there will be stocks-individual or in sectors- that will go on a tear, as there will be higher profits due to inflation, or increased demand for new technology as it is introduced.
While i agree that the long-term bearishness will prevail (has to, in point of fact) as fundamental laws of economics will eventually play out, I’d love to ride the waves, both on the upside and the down-side, if I am canny(lucky?) enough to catch them.
But, alas who is? who can? For this I intend to be guided by the Lunar and Solar and other heavenly bodies (op)positions.
By way of example – (1) SHORT CRUDEOIL between MAY-29 and go LONG July-10/11 when Jupiter-Neptune the co-rulers of CRUDEOIL are in CONJUNCTION.
(2) SHORT Stocks thru Jun-16 and Oct-13 when JUPITER is retrograde.
(3) a similar set-up can be created for GOLD as well !
I took your advice in August, 2007, when you warned of the coming sunami. After unloading everything except a little GLD, I put my cash into 5-year annuities so that I would not be tempted back in (I’m 87 years old). Any comments?
I still say that to understand the developed world’s present “predicament” we have to think carefully about who caused it, how they caused it and why they caused.
If we find that a deiberate policy was being followed for a deliberate purpose, how do we know that purpose is still not being served and that our reactions to it now have beeen foreseen, induced, are expected and accounted, for adding to a policy designed to reduce the world once more to some form of advance financial feudalism?
If that is the case then why should we bother?
We are in our mid 70’s and our aim is to keep what we have, maybe even regain some that we lost before we found you and your plan, and protect our funds from depreciated $ thru inflation. Our children are all taken care of so we are looking at what it cost to live out our lives. We both have IRA’s, company fixed retirement plans and a trust fund, also in CD’s. The money was planced in one year CD’s in January of this year, so it will be January of 2010 before we can transfer that money to our Portfolio. In the meantime, we used $10,000 (1%) to start our investments to test how it will be doing when the CD’s mature.
I have been trading the inverse eft “sds” and have good luck only trading it a few hours on down days. I started trading in March and had great runs with Ford, Hban and Nova gold. I beleive we have picked all the low hanging fruit and need guidance. Keep up the good work.
Randy
I am part of the Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. Being unemployed, I look for ways to make every dime I can. If that calls for jumping in to make some $$, I would love to. I want to work both the short and long term of this bear market. Looks like things will get a lot worse before they get better, so I am in it for the taking!
I think it is important to keep a protion (maybe 1/4 to 1/3) of ones investments funds available for the short term rally situations of this bear market. This way hopefully make back some of the losses many have endured in the last year.
Why not be both types of investor? Put some of your money into long term bear markets investments, and use another part to play the short term moves? Nothing prevents you from trading in a bear market to profit from the short term swings, even trading bearish ETF’s is allowed…
I am both. Which do I like best? Life is short I like the fast money.
The selling of a lot of my holdings indicates that I am more a person of financial action. Doesn’t seem productive to buy and hold unless the holding produces reasonable returns. So out I am except for those investments in which I’m in love. As is said, there is aways a market tomorrow. – - Even if it’s a day away.
I’m 67. Investing for the long term seems a waste of time to me. I trade very short term and regret not taking full advantage of this bear market market rally. Still the long term bearish sentiment is very discouraging. We are Americans the greatest can do country in the history of man. We put a man on the moon after telling the world we were going to do it. I sure as hell don’t agree that we’ve had our zenith and are about to be supplanted by China or India.
I am anxiously waiting for my opprotunity to short the market. My concern is the massive gov intervention. Nothing seems to work as it should and that has caused me to sit on the sidelines. I know what my gut tells me which isn’t good, but the gov connected to news locks me up.
I am 61 years old, and want to preserve my retirement. I have followed many of your recommendations, but have not yet brought myself to sell all my stock. Where would I put the remaining$? In a stortterm treasury mmkt fund like yours? But your fund does not guarantee that it will preserve the $1/share value. I need other secure investments to be recommended besides GLD and SLV. And, are these backed by metals, or just promised backing by metals? I appreciate all your assistance.
Martin, first of all thanks for keeping an eagle eye on the wall street / government situation. They are all such dogs and ruining America. Great Job!
Boy, just like many of your readers, I’m tired of being on the sidelines and not only losing money, but also not making much, except when gold moves. I expect Gold will have its hayday in the not to distant future. However, I have learned the lessons of patience and am siting in the inverse funds waiting for the tsunami to raise all of the inverse funds. So in answer to your question, both.
regards,
Pedro Salas
If you do lthe math you’ll find that American can’t survive. And, this stupid Government is making sure that the stock market and the U.S. Treasury are the only game in town. Foreign stocks are no good because when the US renegs on its debt, foreign governments will confiscate all holdings of American citizens. A U.S. invasion of Iran, along with our taking over on all middle eastern oil reserves will only relieve the pressure for a short time. The only hope for America is a French type revolution which will settle for once an all what the final destination is for rotten politicians who continually loot their own people!
AS LONG AS WE HAVE GOVERNMENT TINKERING WITH MARKETS AND MONEY POLICIES WE WILL HAVE UNUSUAL TIMES AND RESULTS.
WE ARE HEADED DIRECTLY FOR SOCIALISM WITH THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION. GOVERNMENT HAS NEVER BEEN ABLE TO RUN ANY BUSINESS BETTER THAN PRIVATE OWNERSHIP. WE WILL SURVIVE, BUT NOT FOR THE BETTER.
Hi Martin
I think the govement has to cut spending and get the deficit under control and at the same time give tax cut to companies that keep production in USA.
2. Cut red tape for smaller companies and try to make it easier for them to hire American labor.
3. Get rid of 1099 for people so everbody pays taxes, we need to balance budget a.s.a.p.
4. We need to get the world to trust that we can run this country with a surplus again.
Thanks
Niels
I have my investments with a firm but I have lost so much this past year and a half that I’m looking for some other way to invest. I have no clue how to do my own investing that is why I went with this firm several years ago.
I was so tempted to join your million dollar group, but wouldn’t know what to do if I did join.
Can you offer some advice?
Thank you
I lost money when the market turned bear several years ago… buy and hold, stayed with it to long, became a member/subscriber to your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, paid the annual fee and have followed your recommendations exactly. Finally the market goes up while I am now betting for it to go down and lose even more money. This does not feel good. I finally had a chance to earn back some of my losses and, because I sold everything as you recommended, I lost even more. Reading other newsletters I learn recommendations where, if I would have followed, I would have been up 25 to 40% easy. I believe you went into the inverse ETF’s way to soon.
Unhappy at this point but still with you. Richard
We are Americans and we will survive. We might go through great suffering along the way due to the stupid policies now in place but Amereicas better days are still ahead of us.
Always have been a long term investor. Still holding true to my beliefs, but must say I am a bit nervous with the governments handling of the current situation with $.50 of every dollar of this “stabilization” plan being borrowed money. I am more worried for my grandchildren then myself or my wife.
I am itching to trade more aggressively. This recent rally show big gains, it would be nice to make some profit on the ups and downs of these waves.
I belive the key is to follow a strtgey to priofit from teh short term movemtn as well as the long term. That may mean that certain ‘contrarian’ investments wil lose short term but gain long term.
In these times I do not consider myself an aggressive investor. My investments consist of gold coins, both collectibles and bullion, ETF gold, and gold mining companies. I own pipe line LPs such as Nustar, ETF commodities and ETF hedges to short different sectors.
I am concerned that Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and other world problem areas will create unforeseen problems for investments, such as oil and other commodities.
Ken
I am holding to the bear strategy and have joined the Contrarian portfolio. Question is when the next bear plunge occurs, will all stocks go down including the gold mines? Dennis
It is hard to say where it all is going this week but I play the rallies or try to and go long and short on the same day whatever it looks like its going to do.
Suncor on the Toronto is what i am trading mostly and I sure wish i knew for sure where the bottom is.
I am both
60% of my money is invested in solid paying investments 20% in gold and silver coins and the rest I invest looking for large returns
Martin,
I’ve had something of a love hate relationship with you over the years. Since 1993, I have been selling Long Term Care Insurance. I have been very critical of your reports on the subject, which have convinced many people to not purchase any long term care insurance at all. I appreciate that of all the rating services you are the only independent source.
Having sold 2300 long term care policies, I have many clients on claim. Without exception, they are all glad they made the purchase. The top providers have been outstanding in claim payments. I share you caution concerning the future of the whole industry.
That being said, I have been closely followed your investment advice for the last year or so and have been happy that I have followed your safe money advice and have also joined the “contrarian” portfolio. I find your information outstanding. I used to refer to you as “Chicken Little.” However, since so many of your forcasts have played out, I am now a solid supporter.
Keep up the good work!
Martin, I have been a SafeMoney subscriber since 2002 and I have followed your recommendation most of the time. Just recently, I notice that you have tempered your ultra-bear attitude with PSPFX, PSAFX and more Gold which before you had stuck only with the Inverse ETF’s. This is good, since no one knows when the DOW will be 5,000 or the S&P be 500 . . . I just wish you had made the change earlier . . . but, later works.
Bipolar. I force myself to trade in the short-term, expecting the market to pivot in the opposite direction without notice. At my age (60+), I enjoyed an endless run-up in the general market after WWII. But, I don’t see a friendly market in the years ahead that will equate to my former dumb luck of being in a general index fund for 25+ years. With runaway fraud and manufactured financials, who can trust any organization or any authority today? Skepticism rules.
DOn`t argue with the market ` all bulls & bears are
right if they wait long
enough .No one has said to buy good PREFERRED shares ,I did , some with 9 % yield all up .Some pfds.pay more if the Prime rises as it must .Discount bonds look good to me . Edward Scott
I am in it for the long haul. I think we have really rough waters ahead. I am a recent widow and am treading especailly rough sad waters. Trying to keep my head above it all.
Martin Just listened to (and watched!) a Weiss CM presentation which spoke convincingly (as you yourself do) of the coming fiinancial storm due to rising interest rates I subscribe to your analysis but can feel for those who are concerned at the apparent durability of the present rally Could this perhaps be due to the working out of the recovery programme? Earlier today I partly read an analysis which seems to be saying that contrary to a widely held view, gold does not appreciate in difficult markets I’d like to know your view on this as I took your advice and invested in GLD which has appreciated about 5% since.
Basic human nature would tend to make most people both types of investors.
Yes, you can understand the big picture, long term trend and position yourself accordingly, but the siren song of short term profits is difficult to resist. Hence the importance of discipline. Easier said than done.
Hello Martin!
I do not have a lot of money to invest with, so my main focus is to wait on the sidelines until the market is at bottom or near bottom and invest then. The exception right now is gold and silver–I’ve invested in junk silver and a tiny bit of gold (in my safety deposit box) and am waitting for my next chunk of money (inheritance) to come in so that I can invest in silver and gold etf’s. I also invested approximately $1500 in Florida Power and Light–as a start with my local stock broker (with Edward Jones). I also joined you contrarian, and invested in an inverse etf thats inverse to the NASDAC (about $1000) This doesn’t sound like a lot–but it is to me. It’s been an ‘interesting’ experience, waiting for each of my mom’s annuities to fund–scary, in fact, because they have been affected by the stock market at least in part–kind of like the scene from the movie ‘Independance Day’ where the heroine grabs her son and her dog and escapes the conflagration just in time by ducking into the little maintenance room in the tunnel! So my plan has been to erase as much of my debt as possible, fix the roof on my house, and do my best to prepare for the next storm, and help my family to the best of my ability. The service that would benefit me the most is being informed as to when to buy the strong stocks that offer dividends — at the bottom of the market–whenever that happens. Also bonds. I’m looking to invest for the long run–a portfolio that will give me a steady income when I finally retire (I’m 58 now, and plan on working well into my 70’s) I receive a California PERS retirement. Whether that will survive or not, I don’t know. And we all know when ‘D’ day is for Social Security and Medicare! If I have some independant income coming in, at least I can be assured that I won’t be a total burden on my kids even if everything else falls apart. Buy the way, I’m currently unemployed–eligble for rehire, but my career field is REALLY HURTING financially right now, so I’m considering starting a new business. Whew! Well, this has gotten long, so I’d better post.
Thank you for all your wisdom and information and transparency!
Lisa Ryan
BECAUSE THE US TREASURY IS MANIPULATING THE STOCK MARKET BY POURING MONEY INTO THE FINANCIALS AND, ON OCCASION, INTO THE SEMICONDUCTORS, I HAVE BEEN PLAYING BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET, IE. WHEN THE TREASURY JUMPS IN I BUY ULTRA LONG (UYM) AND WHEN THE MARKET REVERSES(NOT VERY OFTEN LATELY), I BUY EITHER REVERSE ETF’S (SKS, SDS OR SRS)
I BOUGHT YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS YESTERDAY OF AAN AND FDO AND THEY’ER DOING GREAT. THANK YOU! I HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PLAY THE GOLD MARKET, BUT I FIND IT VERY VOLATILE. I GUESS YOU WOULD SAY I’M AN OPPORTUNIST TYPE INVESTOR. RISKY I KNOW! THANS FOR YOUR WISDOM AND ADVICE. PAUL
Martin,
I’m in the MDP and staying the course. I do wonder though, what you think of the recent market and numerous financial blog posts I’ve read on the big banks activity in the stock market. Is it possible they are using some of the huge tranfusions of tarp and Fed monies to stoke the market rally and protect their inflated valuations? It seems plausible given the unprecedented amount of money that has gone to a select few bankers. With the changes in mark to market and other tricks and outright lies they have falsified their assets without applying all the cash directly. Is it possible the government is turning a blind eye to it or even guiding the process? It certainly seems the equity and bond markets are staggering from unnatural influences to me and many others. Heck of a thing to lose all trust in the Federal government and the rule of law but I’m about there as the media has apparently “left the building”.
I invest in high yield nly, hts, and others plus stocks like amazon, walmart, exon,procter gambel, etc.
While I’m sitting on the sidelines for the most part, I’m convinced we’re heading for hyper inflation. I’ve been trading in and out of USO (oil futures ETF) and have made some tidy profits over the last few weeks. More and more I’m leaning toward tangible assets such as gold (which everyone should own…I own GLD), oil, and commodities. They have intrinsic value, unlike the greenback. I also appreciate the knowledge Dr. Weiss imparts to his readers.
The best strategy I’ve followed over the last couple of years was to listen to your view of the long term direction of the market, hedge my portfolio with 2x inverse ETFs tied to the S&P 500, and wait patiently for things to play out. In the meantime I’ve tried to ride the waves with short term trading, but that simply hasn’t been as successful. This is why I appreciate Claus Vogt’s patient approach in the Million Dollar Contrarian portfolio. I don’t want a lot of rapid trading. I’d just like to catch a significant portion of the long term trend. Following your advice early on helped me minimize my loses in 2007 and 2008.
Hi Martin!
Although I have just signed up for the Contrarian Portfolio service, I am also itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend?
Martin,
I have wanted to jump back into this bear market rally. Not knowing that we would go up 30% from the low in March I would have probably have done so. However, once investors know the reality of how bad this economy really is, it will sell off again. 500, 1000, 2000 points down, who knows? I just do not like to have to watch it every day. How do we know which way the trend is and for how long? if i could get the answer to that question, I could confidently invest for the trend at the right time. I have used inverse ETF’s only to have the market reverse back up. I am losing money up and down. Too many times I have invested and used stop losses only to have them triggered and the stock goes right back up. Too many times I have not used stop losses thinking the stock will come back up only to see it go even lower. I really think it is just an educated guess at best as to when to time the market to make up or down profits. Just too much churning right now. We got a government intervening and preventing the normal market forces to prevail. I think this will cause the pain to continue even longer…..
Martin
Thanks to you for providing accurate information to the investors of the world for free. I have been following you and you have provided the most accurate and useful information on the net. I look forward to your comments via email and on your web site.
We are in a sustained bear market rally that is being manipulated by the US Government and Goldman Sachs and others in league with the current administration. The huge losses are being taken and will continue to be taken by the US Taxpayer until the governemnt stops lying to the people.
I recommend that everyone take the trades that are there but don’t forget to place your stops. Lots of money to be made and its best to take small slices rather than go for the home run. Canada FXC and Australia FXA are good plays with the dollar falling. Long term Treasury Bonds yields will increase but this market is highly manipulated by the the US Government and the Bond Kings. If you do play say TBT make sure you use tight stops and re-buy after you get stopped out rather than holding long term. I am holding puts on UUP on the dollar deprecation. I am also taking what the market gives me as the trade of the day, always with tight stops.
Good luck and good trading
Dave
I’m your Type II Investor. I’m itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend, but at the same time not pushing my luck either.
I value your comments enormously. Thank you! It keeps me grounded to my long term beliefs that hyper inflation will break out! Maybe naively I do not hedge. My portfolio is 100% long in gold, commodities and precious metal miners! Common sense will break out as all the long term fundamentals point to a grizzly bear market in stocks, a weakening dollar and a break out in gold within the next two years! This is my long term view for the next 5 to 7 years. I have time to be patient!
Without question both strategies have their place in my portfolio, namely more aggressive short term trading (daily charts for swing trades) and longer term holds (weekly charts). As a member of the MDCP, I have applied this approach even though the advisory was intended solely for longer term trades. I would like to see Claus provide some shorter term trades within the longer term MDCP framework.
Hi Martin,
I am a member of all your services, and am presently focused on the Contrarian Portfolio. However I live in Canada, predominately owning Can$, although I do own a good deal of US$.
I would like more specific instructions on switing into the Canadian currencyshares product to profit when the US$ is falling, although I try to read all the newsletters, no specific instructions have been given in this area.
I believe we are well positioned in the Contrarian portfolio, and have complete faith that Claus’ approach will prove out over the longer term.
Thanks, I really appreciate this service. I sold my business two years ago and on your advice took all the funds from my investment advisor who had me fully invested and went into cash in Jan/08.
So cudo’s to you for saving me a great deal of money.
Best Wishes,
JOhn
I think I am both types of investor. That is, I am more than comfortable holding longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, even if that means paper losses while the trend temporarily goes against me. However, I also like to take a small percentage of my portfolio and “ride the wave”, if you will. In other words, take shorter-term, more speculative positions tied to the short-term trend in the market, while maintaining a trailing stop. For instance, I have taken a small position in an investment that attempts to track the performance of the DOW in order to participate in the current bear market rally. This was based on a recommendation by the Uncommon Wisdom Daily team.
Which type of investor am I? I’m both types. I’m focusing long-term and trying to position myself for what’s eventually coming, but I also feel I am missing opportunities by not being in these powerful short-term rallies. I wish I had more help in timing these rallies, because I have had a lot of trouble getting in, and out, without getting hurt.
I am frustrated. I have held short positions all year & have lost my ***. I have always been a long term investor but I am itching to make short term profits. It seems to me with the volatility & instability nowadays long-term investing is not the way to make or preserve money. Yet I cannot find decent short-term investing advice at a reasonable cost.
I am a happy member of the Weiss Contrarian Club. I completed the purchase of FDO and AAN on Tuesday-taking advantage of Claus’ 48 hr early warnings. I look at the money in the portfolio, I have invested, as a medium-run to long-term investment tool.
In the short-term, I am working to position my business services in several “practice areas” to diversify and help to mitigate some of the uneven economic activity in one area over against others. One other thing, I have removed the word “retirement” from my mental dictionary. I am somewhat ambivalent on the future an “optimistic pessimist” – I guess. The future (even tomorrow) is both daunting and exhilarating at the same time. But I am very thankful that I decided to jump into the Million Dollar Contrarian portfolio and found the Weiss Research and Investment website when I did.
Thank you for the excellent research and sincere concerns and honest opinions (and your book) that you impart in each of your articles-so refreshing from Mad Money and CNBC and the lot…
-Walt L
I THANK THIS MARKED IS GOING FOR A BIG FALL,BUT OBOMA SEEMS TO
PULL THINGS OUT SOME HOW. I DON’T LIKE WHAT IS HAPPING!
GOLD GOLD OR DOLLAR MAYBE BOTH WHO KNOW?????????????????.
Why does no one anywhere mention what is our biggest problem by far; that is overpopulation. No matter what we do, nothing will help in the long term if we have 3 times more people than the earth can sustain. Resources will run out and pollution will continue to increase. It will be a hell of a mess, but the earth and humanity will survive. It will just be a lot different. Dennis
Some days I feel sure the market is in recovery and I hold. Other days I’m in profit and I take it. It’s about 50/50 win and lose but
this is more good luck than being in the zone.
I guess diversity in the portfolio is the key, trying to hang onto cash
than see it dwindle.
My first lesson with Martin Weiss was to have “return of my capital”
and this is going to stay with me, forever.
I would rather be on the right side of a major move in the markets than be on the wrong, then right, then wrong side of minor moves, although it is hard to see possible profits passing me by.
With regard to which investor am I- I strive to do both. Namely take an appropriate long term view and also try to add alpha on shorter trends.
I fear we are in for some catastrophic change based on these factors:
* Government rendering the dollar to a currency that is second class and maybe third class.
* Failure to create a competitive manufacturing industry or infrastructure as the Chinese are doing right before our eyes.
* Not allowing the free market to eliminate the companies that cannot make it. (too big to fail)
* Trying to solve these problems by creating a socialistic society where you will lose many personal freedoms including the right to speak against the government when you disagree.
* The loss of the highest paid, highest net worth citizens since they will not stay in this environment.
* The government becoming the largest employer in the country.
* The inability to properly educate our young people by continuing to lower rather than raising the educational bar.
I could probably add a dozen more items but given the path we are on, the outcome seems clear and it is not pretty……………
We have secure pensons! Not many can say this.
Our ace in the hole is a significant investment portfolio. It contains enough money to survive comfortably with zero pensions!
Obviously we have had zero debt for decades and invest what used to be house payments from our pensions. (adjusted for inflation).
Our investing is on the lines of Mr. Buffett. Good companies, to be held forever and a day.
When a car is worn out, we have cash to pay for new one in full. This happens about every decade or longer.
A really good medical plan is part of our retirement paid for in large part by the school system. A small co-pay for a visit is all it costs. Most drug costs are covered, again with modest co-pay.
I believe I am both. After a 50% correction and 12+ years of equity wiped out, I am fully confident that buying here is a great long term investment. However, I also subscribe to the possibility of a secular bear market and as such I have recommended members of my informal investment club to initiate small-medium positions in long term winners and hold indefinitely, buy a few high beta stocks – closing out positions on these 30+% spikes, keep a significant amount of cash for an inevitable pullback, and possibly hedge the entire portfolio with inverse equity ETFs.
This strategy will ensure you participate in an extended bull run, make money on extreme pops, and have a great chance to DCA with profits from your inverse ETFs if there is a major pullback. Even if you are only 40% invested, a 30% run in your long term position is equivalent to a 12% return on your entire portfolio. Any pops on your High Beta or DCA’ing from your ETFs are gravy.
I also really like holding Gold and writing OTM calls, as one of your other investors mentioned.
I’ve invested in some GBSS (gold) stocks (which equates to 0.1 ounce of gold per share but is £ denominated) as well as some Krugerrands expecting to benefit from the general upwards gold trend.
However as the recent jump in the US$ gold price correspondended with a weakening Dollar it seems as if gold was a good investment in the States but not in the UK where the gains where eliminated by the weakening Dollar.
Another question. As many Middle East currencies are pegged against the Dollar such as Bahraini Dinar and the States’ printing presses are devaluing the Dollar would there be merit in a strategy to accumulate some of these ME currencies (as long as they are pegged) which could eventually be unpegged or the pegged rate be adjusted thereby generating a gain?
I want to make money NOW, but I have very little to invest. What would you recommend?
I figure there are at least two more bear market cycles before we hit bottom. with put and call options we can profit on both sides of the cycle. Just don’t get greedy.
“WHAT KIND OF INVESTOR AM I”
This is a very interesting question because I don’t know exactly. I want to be where the money is. I can be bearish and bullish and I like both. My retirement is quite small and I don’t want to lose it. I’m in the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio exercising my patience with Claus and the other investors. I hope there will be growth.
I am 68 years old, retired and have lost a lot of retirement savings from the housing bust. I cannot afford to take big risks or wait for the long-term. Therefore, I have joined the Contrairian Portfolio using only 10% of my remaining capital to be aggressive in a way that won’t seriously jepordize my principle.
Some fairly trustworthy sources suggest that their reading of significant indicators now points to an imminent though not immediate recovery. That has me concerned that the Contrarian wagon MIGHT be on the wrong road.
But what has me a bit more concerned is the data of real life. A few months ago the streets around where I live had gone awesomely quiet. You could see, even feel, the economy shrivelling around you. A nation…losing its grip…fingers hanging onto the edge before an out-of-control plunge.
However, this indicator has changed, somewhat. The ebb and flow of life on the streets is back up, noticeably. Doesn’t mean it’ll stay there, but the cliff we were falling off — either we’ve hit near bottom, or just got snagged on a ledge before the big plummet to the real bottom. I dunno.
Some years ago, I was with you on a venture – that had been meticulously backtested;
but it flopped. Investments sometimes do that. However, you had the integrity to admit the error and restore the funds we’d paid to take the trip.
I have faith that I’m dealing with that same integrity. What kind of investor am I? Almost none at all. Just trying my best to survive these times…all times.
SF
Martin,
I went short too early again and lost so l decided to stay out and watch.
I am a bear so after this next drop followed by a ridiculous rally nearer the 9000-8900 area l will be all in to short the indices.
Walking away once its on until after the crash.
Ang
You missed the third type of investor. One who trades with the dominant trend and sits out countertrend moves. That’s me. I sit out countertrend moves because I am not comfortable playing them. I also recognize that cash is a position.
So I’ve been on the sidelines since early March. I am about to get short in a big way, very, very soon.
I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time but I’m not a day trader but if I can identify a strong trend I may take it.
I use two moving averages and when the short average is above the larger average I may buy in and if the trend reverses I get out.
Claus is buying stocks that are in at least a short term down turn so you are sure of taking at least a short time loss which I see no logic in.
I think many investors believe as I do.It is wise to be 50% ( or whatever % they personally feel comfortable with ) in both camps ( long term/short term).Blending both trend/trade investing is just another division of diversification/hedging.
Being in unchartered waters is knowing to expect the unexpected.We must employ all
wisdom with caution/ and caution with wisdom.
I guess I am of the mind set that there is never a free ride. I do not believe in getting something for nothing. I must be one of the only people out there who believes this way or we would not be in the kind of financial trouble we are facing right now. It is time to own up to our mistakes and not make them worse. I also believe short term jumping around is the same as gambling: you will lose more often than you win.
I am a senior, unemployed at the moment, but soon-to-be re-employed. I believe I will work only one more decade. I therefore do not feel comfortable attempting to wring profits from the short-term trends and am following the long-term bear strategy. I do not have the luxury of time to make up potential losses from the more aggressive strategy. Capital preservation is key for me. Thank you, Martin, for making your expertise available to the public as we go through this rough patch. I’ve learned a lot and feel quite relieved to be on board your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio.
QUESTION: If you think the interest rates will climb, can you recommend an inverse ETF ON BONDS.
I continue to make some income from stage, film and TV but these investments are usually where I have some indirect or direct involvement in the productions, like Mamma Mia! where I was in on the ground floor with the musical in London 10 years ago. And there have been more dead donkeys recently.
In more general areas I have gone into gold and gold production and have liked the look of Australia which does not seem to have had as much difficulty as we have in Britain. Here we will not see any upturn until we get rid of Brown and his load of amateurs. And then their backlash will affect us for years to come……I have more faith in Obama!
Greetings and be aware I’m coming to your side of the pond next week to get a feel of current
attitudes. More comment after the trip……But I came through WW2 in the US as an evacuee from England and have done much business with you over the years in the entertainment world. I am certain you will survive even if you end up a bit dented!
We are in your Million Dollar Portfolio because we were/are fearful of the direction that the government has taken in this financial downturn. However, it would be good to have enjoyed some of the profits that I forfeited when I sold equity positions that have grown in value since their sale in February/March. Now, however, it is disappointing to see losses and some second thoughts from Claus on those positions recommended for the MDP. I hate to lose, but losing twice is really hard to swallow. Some good results could soothe our injured pocketbooks. Just how much of this market manipulation can we absorb as small investors?
My difficulty is keeping up on a daily basis for the short term swings. I get busy with other matters of business and am unable to spend my days at the computer. The roller coaster ride is also difficult. One day missed can mess up a month of effort. Strategic investing advice is important to me rather than tactical day trading.
Normally I would opt for the long term type of investing, but the volatility of our markets, particularly in the last 10 years, suggest that the short term rallies afford much more profitability. As I am aging I am more willing to go for the short term profits with a portion of my portfolio.
I am the type of investor that would like to take advantage of both the ups and downs of both a bear and bull market wheather it might be a short term or long term run.
I try to ride the upside trends with strict stop loss orders in place to maximize my gains during this pseudo-bull market. Sitting by the sidelines during this upturn is not possible for me as I feel I would be missing a great short term opportunity. By the same token, I watch the trends closely and am prepared to change course and benefit from the inevitible market decline. I subscribe to several of your publications and try to pick and choose what I feel are the best recommendations during the current market conditions.
You guys are the best!!
An uptrend in a bear market:
Of course it is a bit frustating to stay iddle, while other investors are making money. And this situation could present itself again. But, what would you like to do … next time, as nobody knows how long that uptrend will last. It is always easy to know (and judge) after the facts. So, here is my sugestion:
For the “impatient” investors who would like to “profit” from temporary uptrends: subscribe also to an other investment letter which deals with short term, but be very careful since when the big trend prevails it could be very bruttal.
For the others:
After you make a good analysis of what you want and made a decision, you should use patience in order to ripe the reward.
Children are usually not born with patience. But they can learn and become adults and … investors. We like to call ourself “investors”.
Kind regards,
Jean-Jacques Pichon, Montreal
i would like to do both, as sometimes it does get to you when you are not cashing in on market moves
If there is a good potential for a 30+% bear market rally, I would most likely trade it.
“Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?”
My best guess are selected oil based stocks in the short to medium term. Looking at the bigger picture oil consumption by China and India is growing rapidly and is set to do so well into the futre.
Hi Martin,
I watched the “all weather management video” today and I reallly wish I could take part of this investment opportunity you offered. You speak of “the little person” in your book and how your father started off with small meager investments that grew into fortunes. However, you seem to cater to the already rich and welathy investors. I am one of the many who would be starting with small meager investments…less than $500,000.
As I don’t have a lot of money to invest, I would like to build it up quickly to be in a position to avail of the ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunities that you say will be available down the line. Will you please make it possible for meager investors to benefit from this?
I want to preserve capital and stay about 6% ahead of inflation before taxes
I think the middle class as we knew it will continue to shrink. Jobs will go to the lowest cost provider. It’s a global economy. Kids getting out of college can’t make enough money to pay their student loans, much less live independently. What does that mean for their futures?
As to your question, I am a patient investor. I do believe the weight of the fundamentals will prevail. Treasuries are a good example of this.
As an Accountant and investor from England for some years, it nevers seeks to amaze me how so many investors, speculators, fund managers, ad nauseum continually make disastrous investment decisions. Its been illuminating to read your discords on the markets and concur that as Bill Rogers once said Its the return of your capital and not the return on the capital when in a high risk enviroment. As many know security, liquidity and yield in that order is preferential to betting against the house. The problems for most investors are that they are unfortunatley prone to market emotion. You cannot afford to tie your belief to any mast, markets are dynamic and fluid.
Many people purport to think they know what they are doing but very few have a consistent plan and apply it. The current period is a tertiary counter trend move and as many on here have stated its wise to get off the rail track and wait for the train to pass. There will always be opportunities in the markets, but very few people beat the market. In this high risk enviroment only the safest securities should be held with a balance skewed towards Treasury Bills, I started selling US Strips in December and buying US Treasury bills.
I only hold the highest quality short dated/Treasury Stocks in the UK and US. The one area which has brought me more return than any other is US Strips when buying back in the 80’s. Even with the mega bull run to 2000 one could out perform the S&P and Dow with less risk. Contrarian investments can and do pay off but you have to have to learn and understand the markets, they are very fickle.
What most investors seem to fail to understand or appreciate is the eigth wonder of the world – compound growth, this in my opinion is one of the foundation stones to understanding successful investing over the long term, as someone said, it is the Royal road to riches.
As a non US citizen it may seem that you are engulfed in myriad of problems but alas this is a global pandemic which will equally affect all regions, perhaps with differing lead/lag times. However, even though US government debt is rising that does not mean inflation and one only as to look in the rear view mirror at Japan. In my humble opinion deflation is the swOrd of damocles which hangs over the global economy, not inflation. I know many think the actions of the Fed will spark inflation but it takes more than just printing money to validate this. Velocity of circulation, maginal propensity to save of the consumer and debt implosion can more than offset the tinkerings of the US government and the Fed. The markets will always cajole the governments to react and force their hand.
I always advise clients to read Wiped Out by an Anonymous investor and Extraodrinary popular delusions and madness of crowds – Charles Mackay, a great way of learning from others errors.
As for the American economy it may suffer large convulsions as we enter another downwave but it certainly will not be the end of US or global capitalism.
Enjoy the ride!
I have funds at Lloyd’s of London, there to enable my underwriting of insurance risk. (Lloyd’s of London paid for 9/11) it is very important that my capital does not loose value, 60% of my underwriting is on US risk, so I hold a higher proportion of my capital in USD. Then I have further capital available out side Lloyd’s not required for income, but gain. I want to make sure I am one of the people with solid capital to buy future assets at the bottom. I like Claus’s approach and will be patient, though it is difficult sitting on one’s hands. I can sympathise with the short termers, but personally my time is limited and cannot focus on short term gains. Thanks for the book Martin.
I do not believe in buy and hold with the exception of core holdings that I hedge when extended.
I am do best in short term trading and long term trading. The middle range is strongly market directed and sector shift oriented. I find I trade best with technical plus sentiment and a smaller look at some fundamentals. Hedging my long term positions with short term trades and good entry points with protective stops has improved my portfolio performance. I have not been successful with options but I am still looking for a good strategy for a small part of the portfolio.
This means I would like to see the shorter term trades to take advantage of the waves.
Today, June 3rd, the markets are taking a big hit. Larry Edelson believes the DOW will likely climb over 10k in the coming months. Claus believes the markets will fall yet again to a low around 5k. I call this the crossroads of what lies ahead. These next 2 weeks I believe will set the base for which direction the markets go. Regardless, both point to a continued bear market in the future and both support investments in gold. My hope is we get these 2 powerful hitters back under one roof. Best regards, Phil.
Hi: In answer to your question. I’m like both types of investors. I want to make money right now by buying and selling quickly, but I also want to be prepared for the crash that is on it’s way.
Martin, I really injoyedreading your book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”, which in turn had me buy into your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. I have followed your buy’s so far, and am willing to wait for the next down leg. Although, I have also been trading in and out of this bear market rally, with the help of Jeff Clark, and have made really good returns on his option trades, I would like you to help us with more ways to profit from bear market rallies, as you say they are very strong, and fast. I think if you are willing to get in and out of trades, there seems to be alot of profits to be made, I have had a number of trades in this rally that have returned me profits of 60% to 235%. Any help would be great for me. I have a electrical company in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. People out here are also believe the worst is over, and I get laugh at every time I tell people that things are about to get worst again. Thanks for all yours, and your teams help, you guys really seem to care about us, the average investor.
Jay
Martin, I think that the million dollar portfolio is the way to go but on the other hand everyone has to have a game and the more exciting the better. So, it makes sense to have some portion of your portfolio in an account that you speculate with. That account should be small in proportion to your base safe reliable account. The other thing it does is give a person the feeling that he is in control and has the ability to be self determined. If that particular freedom of self determination is removed from the individual he will begin feeling he is not a “part” of what is going on. Thanks
I think that America is in a period of decline due to our financial mismanagement, starting with the federal Govt in the late 60’s and early 70’s, the biggest debt explosion in recorded history, it has trickled down to corporations, states, school districts and personal finances. Instead of biting the bullet and getting our house in order we have just created more debt to get by, We have sold out our manufacturing base, and overregulated producers. Politically the pendelum has swung to the left, it will soon swing far to the right as the crises deepens, and people will look to a someone to save them. It will probably not be pleasent. I believe we will have to withdraw from around the world, creating a power void, that will be filled by more financially stable countries. We should be able to hold on due to our nuclear arsenal, but we are probably destined to become less of a world power. Personal finance will need to be quickly moving, and preservation will be difficult, Governments will not be able to tax enough, and may look at ways to tax assets directly. We may be able to survive and grow and prosper, but it may take a generation.
I rather trade this market aggressively and take profits as stocks move up and down.
It is not just black and white and I’m no economist. What you hear in the media, Cramer etc., and what I read here at times are diametric opposites. For many of my 55 years I have found the truth to lie somewhere in the middle. I believe the analysis of our economic situation by Weiss Research is spot on, but with my eyes I have seen money currently being made. With that having been said, yes I am still looking at the short term opportunities during this bear market rally.
Hi,
With the depressed value of many things and with the uncertianty of future Government laws/rules and the threat of run-a-way inflation in our future I have decided to invest in land as they cannot create any more of that. It a very long term investment.
Rod
I used to be a hold and wait investor. No longer. I’ve switched to dine and dash. Take the money and run.
I think it’s the best strategy to invest in anything that people “need” for survival. The dilemna for me is that I think the dollar is being purposely collapsed so that it can be replaced. Since those who invented our fiat, debt driven monetary system have all the power, I’m wondering if the “cashless”, “Mark of the Beast” monetary system is next?
At my age, 69, I would like to make quick investments, but can’t really afford to lose money, so I have to play it safe. I am a member of your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, and also have some other investment advice that we use through your group. My wife owns a consulting company with government contracts and I still consult. We both need to work another 5 years to get out of debt totally, including our house, so any investments we make need to be 3-5 years or less, and safe.
as i see it safe money is the newsletter with 2 methods to long term profits. and the short term is handled by such things as the contrarian fund.
I am one who plays both. its like we used to keep cash in a CD in a bank but thats not a successful strategy any longer. so long term positions are where i keep most of my cash. short term i use about 35-50 % of my portfolio to be more agressive.
i follow your COEAlert and global currency programs.
thanks for all your consistent and hard work i have referred dozens of my friends and family to you. i hope they are taking notice.
Thanks to you, Martin and your talented staff. I am a relatively new comer to the investment world since retirement. I have subscribed to Safe Money for many years and appreciate the balanced recomendations you continue to bring each month. I have subscribed to several newsletter of your staff and profited from their recomendations. I am also a member of the Million $ Contrarian Portfolio. I read and subscribe to several investment resources.
I am using a combination of what i consider both patience for the longer term gains and at the same time do not hestitate to seek to “grab” short term or qiuick gains to increase the worth of my investment portfolio. I seek to utilize what I consider the best trained minds and experienced individuals while at the same time utilizing my years of professional experience in other fields. Thanks for all your continuing assistance! You and your staff are invaluable to me in my/our retirement years. Paul
Martin,
I’ve followed you for quite some time and your impressive! I believe your approach is likely the best methods currently and likely in the future. Ultimately this current administration will usher in new economic system under a New World Order. Sadly, I believe that much if not all of the current events are orchestrated to remove the last few barriers which include the demise of our economy and Constitution for this to be accomplished. This will not be derailed. All empires in history have fallen and we are currently in that process of which willbe completed shortly. Ultimately, there will be nowhere to hide.
Thank you for your efforts.
I would like to make money now and also by and by.
my family had been thru the Comminunist take over in China. Obama is following the script!!!! Back then, the comm. changed thr money in a matter of hours so that everyone has zero money in banks and stock mkt. Only gold, silver and jewelry were the money for a time, until the gov’t gave out ration tickets for all things
I’m almost 82 years old and was fortunate to get a reverse mortgage (before the RE selloff) of well in excess of $1million. However, this didn’t prevent me from suffering big losses in the stock market. I’m gradually shifting out of the US dollar and into the Canadian oil and gas trusts, Asian markets, gold and precious metals and infastucture stocks. These are crazy times – likewise the administration policies. I’ve been investing for over 60 years. What investment advice do you have for me? Thank you. You have been right on the money.
LONG TERM FOR MY CORE STRATEGY
YET SHORT TERM FOR OPPORTUNITY PLAYS, BUT TO MANAGE RISK
REGARDING TIMING IS THE CRUCIAL PART.
MR WEISS, I’M A HUGE FAN…….I AM A MEMBER FOR 5 MORE YEARS.
EXTRAORDINARY JOB…………KEEP IT UP…………..
Hi,
With the value of many things being depressed and the future Government laws/rules being uncertian, I have decided to invest in land, a very long term investment but they cannot create anymore of that.
Rod
I’m both!
I know you are recommending that we keep all our IRA’s in Treasuries?? But, shouldn’t we invest some in good mutual fund bonds and companies that pay dividends or mutual funds w/companies that pay dividends?? I am having difficulty in liquidating the mutual funds and sitting on Treasuries at 1-2%. My age is 69 so my earning power is about another year or two. What is your recommendation??
Hi,
I would put myself down as type A, i.e. buy good companies at what looks like good prices and accept the waves of ups and downs in the hope that when we reach 2012 all will have settled down and my stock valuations will be back to where they should be(with some profit). I am still in the market, having bought during February and March and my portfolio currently looks positive. My main concern is that if a dip does come and is severe, e.g. drops of circa 20%, I might be forced out of the market at a loss. The question for me then will be, should I ride it our and hope for a recovery (and risk loosing most if not all) or be cool and sit tight? I also have another concern, which is, what affect will a devalued dollar have on my current holdings. My account is in Euros and when the dollar looses value so also does my account. Is there any counterbalance to this?
Hello Martin,
I just discovered you two months ago and I purchased your book. It is wonderful but a bit over my head. I am a single woman and I have never invested before. I know I must look at this for my future, but I am afraid I will make a wrong decision and risk what I do have in the bank. I was wondering do you have an investment and learning program for people like me? I have been reading that Silver is now a good investent, but I need to start with some short term trading where I can make some money and continue to re-invest to build my portfolio. If you have any suggestions or tips, I would very much appreciate it. I think your website is fantastic and you are a visionary. Thank you for helping us all through these unfortunate times.
Rita Scaia
Tampa, FL
Hi,
I would put myself down as type A, i.e. buy good companies at what looks like good prices and accept the waves of ups and downs in the hope that when we reach 2012 all will have settled down and my stock valuations will be back to where they should be(with some profit). I am still in the market, having bought during February and March and my portfolio currently looks positive. My main concern is that if a dip does come and is severe, e.g. drops of circa 20%, I might be forced out of the market at a loss. The question for me then will be, should I ride it our and hope for a recovery (and risk loosing most if not all) or be cool and sit tight? I also have another concern, which is, what affect will a devalued dollar have on my current holdings. My account is in Euros and when the dollar looses value so also does my account. Is there any counterbalance to this?
Hi,
With the value of many things being depressed and the future Government laws/rule being uncertian, I have decided to invest in land, a very long term investment but they cannot create anymore of that.
Rod
I am thinking long term. I am long on hard commodities and stocks in Asia, more importantly in China. I am long Brazilian Reals and Chinese Renmimbi.
I am not in the market for the quick fix. I am in it for long term growth and capital preservation. I like the way that CLAUS is managing things so far.
my opinion is at age 66 to wait for interest rates to rise to 8% lock in half my assets long term and at 10% lock in the rest. have held gold&silver from 1981 to 1996 and took a bath. give me high interest and quit worrying about the rest. keep the information coming.thank you
I find Safe Money Report to offer excellent guidance. I can’t count the times I’ve said to acquaintances; Well Martin was right about this,…or about that. I am a conservative investor of retirement age who needs to protect my principal. Nevertheless, in answer to your question, I would welcome some shorter term advice for my lunch money.
Bob
My husband and I are getting ready to retire in the next few years. We owe on nothing and have some cash to invest in the safest of spots. Since we are very conservative and lost a bundle in the market turndown, we are thinking of investing in Treasury Bills. Even CD’s are making us nervous after the stress tests on the banks although we still have a couple out there. What do you think?
I want to make money now as i think we will have a rally in a bear mkt for a time and there are some great money making places to make quick money. I hunt stocks that have at least a 3 start rating and a 20/50 day up moving average. I then look to sell covered calls that give me a min of 10% downside protection and if called a min of 4%. Most of my calls are a month out but never more than two months. They also have to have at least a 50% of better chance of being called during that month. Now unless my math is wrong 4% x 12= 48% annualized return and that is ok with me. I have found today stocks with a June call so about 18 days with a 20% downside protection and a 17% return if called in 17 days.
I am doing great with silver gold plat & pladium and expect to see the most profit in pladium from now to the end of the year. Also bankruptcy auctions at these I am buying for 1 cent on the dollar so i don’t care if its tough out there for 4-5 years as I expect it will be. I am also considering moving to brazil or argentina. Dan
I guess I would have to say that I’m an ivestor that is looking for profits now. I retired last year on a disability and we really got hurt with the market and housing collapse. We don’t have much in our retirement funds. I just listened to the “experts” who said to ride this out. Now we’re paying a dear price. I just don’t understand the market and the terminology used. We need (want) money now. Can’t wait 10 years. I believe you when you say the market is going to plunge, but when is it going to plunge? 1 month or 1 year from now? I’m like a deer in the headlights—don’t know what to do. Can you give us all web sites that we can go to that show charts that track the markets, economies, etc? And what to look for in those charts? Thank you for all your effort.
I sold stock all the way to March 16 and bot SDS and SRS (inverse) ETF’s two days before going in the hospital because you had mentioned them, you did say to wait though. For safety bot…. now down 37% with these two. Should have signed up then instead of May 31!
Martin
I can see the predicament that is faced by the Contrarian Portfolio with its 48 hour lead times and orientation towards longer term investment positions. As someone with both long term and short time perspectives i can see no reason why they cannot both co- exist side by side.( And with very different trading positions).
In consequence, my view is that if short term opportunities present themselves i can see no reason for you to not offer them to subscribers.
I do believe that they should be differentiated from the portofolio investments ,come with an appropriate health warning, and obviously not carry the same lead time restriction.
As such, this would represent an addional added value service to subscribers while they wait for the longer term strategies to play themselves out.
i hope that this provides an answer to the question; “what kind of investor are you”.
PeterC
I am out of the market at present. I am investing in my business, by rethinking processes. We have reduced some commen expenses by 45%! All this by looking inward. Unless we get rid of the politicians that are now in power, our country is in deep trouble!
Keep your powder dry and stay in hard, liquid assets. As a friend advised me several years ago, “Get what you have and can, as soon as possible, in a little pile in front of you and protect it at all cost. Stay prudent, persist and pray. Opportunity will come your way in time.” So far it has worked well.
As a member of your contrarian investment club, I believe in the long term vision as explained by both you and Claus. Listening and looking around my town, and myself being unemployed, the gloomy outlook does not seem to be exaggerated. However, I would have liked to have profited from the seemingly long term bear market rally. We lost a lot of money during the last 8 weeks in the inverse ETF’s and could have made up the difference in investing in the short term.
I have two portfolios, one core portfolio for retirement that I cannot afford to loose a cent on, and a gambling portfolio; which if I win, I can take that long dreamed of vacation, buy a yacht, or decorate the home, etc.
I want to know, what do you think of Ken Fisher’s prediction that the fiscal stimulus is the biggest global percentage of GDP to hit the world’s economies. What will be the impact?
I do both my portfolio has turned into a hedge fund.
hi,
I feel one should go with the environment and the environment today is one of utmost confusion with most data untrustworthy in the mainstream media .
However there are two things that cannot be obfuscated and that is volumes and price movements .So one could be a trader .
What better than be a trader in this environment .
The fundamentals of any industry today is dependent on the global business which is bust mostly except in the emerging markets and most markets have risen spectacularly on dollar bills flowing into the equity markets and cheap dollars flowing into emerging markets doing furthur damage to their economies since most emerging markets are export oriented and currencies of these countries appreciate with influx of dollar bills at zero interest .
Trading is best in the circumstances where there is fog all around. Options are slow moving instruments and futures are fast . Using a combination of both one can trade using proper risk reward ratios . I prefer using combination of these two instruments . options to hedge risk and futures to milk the profits in range in between .
BUYING STOCKS IS a STRICT NO NO ABSOLUTELY until we find some performance from the USA Government and improvement in MANUFACTURING which is the main industry which fires consumption of commodities .
I hear the PRESIDENT is contemplating amnesty to illegal aliens residing in the USA with full health care .Thats no performance and security for the honest tax paying citizen .
IF I BUY ANY STOCK IT WOULD BE A GUN MANUFACTURER OR AN AMMUNITIONS manufacturer . I think threre would be a rush for hand guns and automatics soon to protect property and lives .
Martin, at this time I am looking @ the long term trend and I think it is down in this debt based economy. I also think that the day is comming that the the dollar will not be the sole reserve currency of the industrialized world. Where is the store of value when the goverment ( Federal Reserve) prints money out of thin air. The Federal Reserve should be done away with and the treasurey of these UNITED STATES should take over their function. The sooner this happens the better off we all will be.
John E. Hagan
Given that much of the pain is due to lack of natural resources and gold backup with
governments inflating to avoid the problems; we may be headed to a WWII senario. Why did not Japan bomb the oil storage tanks at Pearl Harbor? They wanted the oil!
They didn’t get it so they lost the war. The next conflict is between Japan and China
in the China sea over oil. That could be the seed for WWIII. The banks will love this because they will be able to be patriots and sell trillions of dollars of war bonds. Just replace the recession with WWIII. And buy Boeing, the new GM, and Ford because we need new hardware to fight a war.
Hi Martin,
I’ve been with Safe Money Report for years.
Our current financial status is very challenging.
I am 82 years old and cannot wait for long term financial improvement and the present
situation very challenging since my IRA is my only source of income and it is very
difficult to accomplish without fear of losing because of the unstable situation of our
stock market and our economy. What to do?
Sincerely,
Richard Rusak
I am a retired senior i with ample income to currently support the life style of my wife and me from income from my pension and investment income. My primary objective is to maintain the purchasing value of our assets for our heirs . Accordingly, being properly positioned for the long term is a primary objective – that is why I am a Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio subscriber for a modest portion of our assets to determine if Klaus’ decisions are an effective towards that objective. However, I want to use a modest portion of our assets for short term gains since I enjoy this type of investing and hope it will conrtibute to the primary objective as well.
Hi Martin,
I think a lot of investers are riding the psychological wave of the market, knowing all the time that conditions are wrong to be investing, but at the same time taking advantage of the the tidal wave of hope and greed among a large percentage of investors, and plan to be clever enough to pull out of the market at the peak of this psuedo gain. Sometimes it works if you follow it very carefully.
Fred in Kansas City
I’ve never ‘blogged’ before, so I hope this works. Regarding which kind of investor am I? The answer is long term, with an eye toward taking advantage as much as possible of the bearish trend, which appears to be balanced for acceleration in late July or August. I am also a member of the Contrarian Portfolio, and am looking forward to picking up some gains on the way down, and then jumping with both feet whent he market truly hits bottom.
–Jeff
Follow the trends with trailing “sell” stop loss orders. I expected the Contrarian portfolio to initiate some commodity picks last March & April. However, the recent rally was overdone. If the stock markets crash, gold mine stocks, oil, minerials, resources, metals, etc. will likely drop alarmingly, at least initially. Today, 6/3, is a good snap shot of such a potential.
missing 2000 plus point raises on the dow makes NO sense to me…….there must be a better way. I follow the markets daily and hourly and desire help in a more immediate way.
Also, your Saturday currency guy Rich is completely useless…..Crooks was much, much better…..
I’m drifting to the “other” guys……Larry Edelson particularly….
richard c
I’ve been reading Weiss since before the advent of the internet. I’m also a MCP investor. I’m with Claus on this one. Patience pays, trader type risks are for gamblers not investors. I prefer Texas Holdem when I want to gamble. The shorter the term trend the more difficult to asses with indicators. So your brother-in-law is laughing at you while he’s raking in wild rally profits. Claus and I will have the lasting laugh.
Dear Martin.
You ask will America survive, but it makes more sense to ask will the world survive? Your financial philosophy is correct in term of our market economy, but you are blind to ecological problems as the investors are to the dangers of Bull psychology in a Bear market.
Dear Dr Martin,
Since my company have applied the PRP (Payment Reduction Program), I become more aggressive in trending and more cautious. Now trading is like a part time, to keep my living standard.
So I trade on a daily basis, minimum risk, high probability trades. No investments in this market, because I do not have the information of what could be the best investments. Only your Safe Money Report, but still I am thinking that a long term strategy w/o the right information is a loosing strategy.
Would be helpful if you could show where to find the stocks paying dividend and the dividend day.
Thank you,
Constantin S
The former, without a doubt. Knowing a buying opportunity comes easy to me. However the trouble comes in deciding when to get out. I’ve been burned too many times to take up the trader’s mantra.
Short term,I believe the market will be static,with a tilt up,interim DOWN.
We have many forces talking the market up,eventually reality will win out.
It’s a question how much damage will the Iibs doo prior to the 2010 elections.
I hope this ends up as a good lesson to all of us,we need to keep our eye
on the ball.
Martin I am so thankful for your and Claus’s excellent advice and am a member of the Contrarian Portfolio. I also want to play the short term rallies as enjoy the play ( I am working with the World Currency Alert too). Most of my money is in Europe with the long term stocks my father left me, although I just lost a large sum on 2 bank stocks (my father worked for the bank for 45 years). That hurt! as this is my dividend income. So yes I want to play both markets for profits and long term gain!
I have hit 65 and from here my main interest is in capital preservation. Of the two choices, I would prefer an adviser who can pick the peaks and valleys with a 3-9 month cycle.
I believe major inflation is in store. In order to keep this from a Weimar hyperinflation, Volcker type interest rates (18% to 20%) may be necessary. My quandary is what this very high carrying cost will do to gold bullion as an investment. Homestake was a fantastic holding in the 30s but my recollection is that gold did not do so well under the Volcker interest rates. This may make quality gold shares better than bullion??
Jim Rogers may be right about the farmland.
I subscribed to your $MM Contrarian Bear service, and have tried to follow your moves. However, I have used trailing stops to prevent short losses from becoming too large. This has sold out my short positions several times, but saved me some losses. My old long positions have made some gains, so the overall result is less volatility, but lesser gains in the up moves. I’m not unhappy, since my primary objective is protecting my IRA from a catastrophic decline. It seems to me that Soros is right that psychology of the crowd is the primary driver, and the pro-active, and positive attitude of Obama and his troops is overpowering the fundamentals for the time being. What do you think?
Dear Martin,
I think your Dividend SuperStar newsletter is the way to go for the future. I say only invest in companies that have a 20 year plus track record of paying consistent dividends and accumulate as many shares as you can.
Sincerely,
Eduardo Torres
Economics Instructor
Martin,
My retirement is sitting in short-term treasuries just like you recommended. I have a Scottrade slush fund that I am playing the short-term rally with, putting my stops in. What is confusing is the divergence in opinions between the uncommonwisdom sources and you and your sources. Leaves the smallfry like me trying to figure it all out!
Nancy
I would like to be BOTH kinds of investor. I have got approximately 21% of my little portfolio in inverse ETFs, 18% in high-dividend stocks, 33% in various forms of precious metals, including one stock that has risen sharply, and 28% in short-term Treasuries and money markets. I have some open orders that I think will eventually get filled at lower prices than today’s prices.
I don’t have a lot of time, but I did open an options account with TDAmeritrade. If I could boost the amount I have to invest by trading covered calls, or even some lower risk options, I would like to do that. But I don’t have the time to study it much myself and would need specific trading instructins. I also do not have the money to pay for any more high-priced newsletters.
I am past the age to be an active trader. If I were I would look to stocks in Asia and South America, that is where the growth is presently, and will be for some time. Presently,accumulate as much precious metals as you can afford. We are going to need it come this fall and winter.
hello martin, long-term investing is, in my opinion and for the most part long gone,
I am definitly the more aggressive trader. I believe in the 50/50 approach. 50% long term. 50% short term or “riding the waves” as you call it.
Martin et. al. : I am a retired physician at the ripe age of 80 yrs.My entire portfolio is now in money Market funds since Dec. 08. I totally agree with your analysis and recommendations, but at my age , I do not have the luxury of being able to wait for the eventual grasp of the Big Bear. Every time I mention stratagems like John W. (inverse ETFs in treasuries or index funds covered calls on gold), my kids think I have taken another step toward Senile Dementia, staying my hand. Do you have any advice for us Long term survivors/ short term investors. Keep up the good fight !
Martin:
I love the work you and Mike do. It is insightful and timely. I recently canceled my subscription to the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio because I expect much better timing from full time advisors. As an investor interested in safety and income.
Honestly, I believe I am both. Why not allocate 60 to 70% for the major market trends and reserve the balance for the shorter term trends. There are profits being made (substantial ones) in shorter term investments. Alternative energy for example is something that will plow ahead no matter what and with governments funding new alternatives it will continue to grow. I have been in and out several times over the past 6 months (nimble) taking profits from 10% to 30%. often times in the smae companies.
It is possible to be diversified and nimble enough to take advantage of both positions.
Since I did not follow your advice in Safe Money, to my chagrin, I have been mostly following Claus’ recommendations in the Million $ Portfolio. I already had some of his recommendations so I did not buy more. Gold stuff is up and the short ETFs are down but I truly believe the short ETFs will pay off if I hang in there. I think you and Claus are very sharp.
Add this to the comments you have received on America’s future. I am the leading authority on Reform of our Public Schools that
writes about the need for a nationalized system. For most of the
25 years since A Nation at Risk was published we have allowed
800,000 to 1,000,000 adolescents to become adults without the
benefit of a High School education. As a consequence the next
Census will reveal nearly half of our adult population never graduated from H S. We can not compete successfully in the
Global Economy unless we improve Public School education. Our
largest Colorado School District graduates less than 50% of 9th grade students and this is characteristic of most of the largest 500 school districts in our country which now provide primary and secondary education for about 40% of all students. We need leaders from the commercial section of our society to take action now to correct this serious situation. If you will write about this
need I will supply you with all the information you could ever use.
Martin: Re: what kind of investor I am. I’m both a short to medium term and a long term investor. I trade online at ThinkOrSwim and Interactive Brokers. My IRAs are at Fidelity. Thanks.
Martin !!
I seem to remember that you predicted Wall Street coming tumbling down when GM was going into Bankrupcy. Care to tell the world what happened on that day ??
I think you are playing more on fear amongst ignorant investors, leading them towards your own investment opportunities …!
I believe that every Tom, Dick and Harry out there who has followed NYSE / NASDAQ etc.. knows that Wall Street do not act on actuals, but on sentiments and well managed (read manipulated) stock trading ….. which works !!
No doubt that 2009 will be the year of “cooking the books” in order to support their stock, and Wall street and Geithner is only happy to close their eyes, if a soring stock market makes people optimistic enough to make them invest and buy new cars .. etc.
Regards / Herluf Johansen
I believe the bear will be back but I still will be trying to make some quick money on the upturns.
Glenn
I am conservative. I don’t like seeing my investment accounts varying a lot. I want long term stability and have mostly accepted no return on short term investments because of the huge economic cataclysm occuring presently. I follow some Safe Money and your other colleagues investment advice but often the investment suggestions are quite volatile inthe short term and require somewhat nimble and frequent trading to stay ahead of profits. I wish there was something far more mundane, buy it, forget about it for a few months . I am at the point where I feel compelled to check the markets and my accounts almost on a daily basis; I guess it is my general insecurity that makes up/down days in the markets affect how good or bad day I am having.
thanks bill
I’m more of the long investor type, but I do look longingly at those short term profit opportunities.
Martin, if you offered a service that combined a mid-to-long-term technicals/fundamentals focus (e.g., Claus Vogt’s MCP approach) with an occaisional mix of near-term careful rally speculation (e.g., Larry Edelson), I believe it would be a killer combination. I’d pay for that in a heartbeat.
I know that Claus considers bear market rally investing to be too risky. I am an MCP subscriber and I love Claus’ approach. However I do think that other analysts are in fact very comfortable with rally investing in a way that is not irresponsible or wreckless. I wonder if Claus could get comfortable temporarily investing a portion of the MCP portfolio during bear market rallies (10% – 15% ?) using collaborative recommendations from someone whose experience and expertise in rally investing is trustworthy (Larry?).
I don’t expect either Claus or Larry to be experts at everything. But why not combine their expertise to deliver a killer combination of the best of both? I’d be first in line for such a service, and I believe it would distinguish Weiss’ offerrings in an amazing way.
I contrast this idea with Weiss Capital Management’s All Weather Investing approach, where they change the ratio over time of their Balanced approach and their Bear approach. Rather, I would prefer a mixture of Claus’ impeccable Technical Fundamentals approach (a mid-to-long term permanent posture; non-emotional) with an occasional and proportional Rally approach (a near-term temporary posture that profits from even the irrational, but manageably opportunistic trends of the market).
Sign me up!
Martin,
I am the type of investor who wants to make money in the quickest/safest way possible. That is why I joined MCP. I would like to ride a bear market rally only as long as we can get in and out at the right times, and that seems to be a difficult call. I listened to the folks at Uncommon Wisdom and bought some of their recommendations. They went up then down then back up again and I got out. Of course they went higher after I got out, but I decided to play it safe and shadow the portfolio exactly. I am new to this game, and I have only one wish and that is not to lose money on this venture. I’m hoping to make a lot of money, but I am most interested in avoiding losses.
Hope this helps,
I’m a contrarian investor; but, a percentage of a persons disposable income “could” be invested in wave for a quick profit turnaround.
Im waiting for the dow to take a big tumble and use 2 or 3 reverse etfs to make a little money,gfs
dear martin, please keep your perceptions, opinions and direction coming—i’m both kinds of investor—and of necessity keep as safe as i can. heartfelt regards…
Martin……how can I find out how the contrarian portfolio is doing?
“Your boy Martin was right. I just came back from Florida and I’ve seen it. The banks are scared. . . Who will walk away from their loans. with just a bad credit score. I
saw a 500thousand dollar bank loan the person just walked away and kept a 250 thousand.
So who’s to blame?
‘The banks are. They got greedy.”
?
Lisa, re what you said about Bonds. I invested a few years ago in Ford, GM, and Chrysler. The income was great while it lasted and now I have lost it all.
I am a long term investor and prefer investments tied to the dominant trend in the market with a small portion of my portfolio invested for profits in bear market rally.
Martin, I honestly think that the US government will have no choice but to start a World War in order to get out of this situation were in. I read your book and thought it was great, So I am using alot of your ideas when it comes to investing. thanks, Frank.
Just think of the wana be investors! Take me from an infant, and walk me through, and then profit from it! I am the the poster child for “newbe wana be investor”, Without specific help: I am lost
I would like someone to show me………personally one time…i distrust everyone but your company, and sincerly need someone to show me how. I dare you !
Hello Mr. Weiss
Question–Why not enjoy both the short term rallies and be prepared for any sudden
fall in the market with option strategies. I trade mostly straddles and strangles hoping the stock or ETF moves drastically in any direction. I dont even try to pick the direction but only play stocks with high volume and volatility so that I am easy in or out. Dr. Dale
american veteran needs help
Undoubtedly it’s harder swimming against the current. Your muscles ache, you gasp for air, your heart beats faster, your mind tells you, “give up and go with the flow”. But as one who has seldom had success trying to keep up with the institutional investors and other “pros” who seem to be able to manipulate the market in their favor at least in the short term, I prefer to follow a preset plan designed to survive the longer haul. I find myself wanting to turn with the current and then a timely email from Martin or Claus fills me with resolve.
This market is not for the faint of heart. And day trading to take advantage of a bear market bounce seems to me to be potentially a recipe for disaster. I signed up for guidance from the best in the business and I’m going to stick with them. Fundamentals are being mentioned more in the mainstream media every day. Eventually they have to mean something to the markets.
long term.
Too close to the end to have more than 20% at risk.
How should it be split up under your model?????
Have not made any money with you yet.
All the positions are down because of the current rally.
I’m willing to carry some temporary losses in the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio while the market continues to rally for a while because I, like you, believe that there are more downward forces to play out and our positions are going to be affirmed.
But, I do have positions in other investments in another account that are taking some advantage of the upticks in the market right now, but I’m watching them very closely and am ready to pull the plug on them just as soon as I see them headed downward. I also have about 10 other stocks on a watch list that I am prepared to purchase because they have seemed to be able either to be market neutral (still go up whether the market is in an up or down cycle) or will be able to take advantage of the governmental stimulus money for infrastructure spending.
I am a mixture fo the two type of investors. I want long term investments for the majority of my portfolio, but I’m not against taking some risk with a smaller portion so that I will have more cash to invest when the really sweet deals come along.
I’m young, 33, so I can afford to take some more risk and I’d like to take risk with currency options. I find them intriguingm because there is always a winner, you just have to figure out who and when they will appear.
Being young I am also unexperienced and I would rather take the advice of the experienced than gain my own experience through loss.
I hope to see some short term picks to help me biuld cash for my long term contrarian investments.
–rjp
I would like to trade the market.
I thought when I purchased your newsletters, Safe Money and Contrarian Portfolio, that I was getting the best of both worlds. But, alas, what I seem to get is more enticements to purchase more newsletters. Example: Porter Stansberry
Ed
I think we are in a bear market that could decline at any time but would like to make some money on the extended rallies that take place. I do not think the current rally can last much longer but Obama, Bernanke and Geithner are as smooth as used car salemen when it comes to talking the market up. What do you advise?
I am more of the long-term investor. I believe trying to make money in short-term swings carrys considerable risk. I am a member of the contrarian portfolio group.
I am happy with most of my money in long term bear investments such as T-Bills and inverse ETFs, but with some roomy stop loss to preserve some gains and allow me to reset my investments after a rally. In addition, I would like some stocks or ETFs I could play during a rally with 10% or so of my portfolio.
I like to focus the major part of my money on the long term trend. However, I definitely want to invest some money in shorter term trends like the trend that the market has had over the last few months.
When I invested in stocks two and a 1/2 months ago, I went for long term but with the enforcement of the 3 day trading rule I have split my money so that I have at least three days of trading per week, we have gain enough profit to request access to a margin account which no longer is constrain by the three day rule. In my brief market experience, in and out is the best way to go, build your wealth and invest your profits into precious metals, this is just my opinion.
Mike Burke
Good morning Martin,
Taking advantage of market opportunities, which ever way the existing market happens to be trending can be quite rewarding. Why not try and follow the market as it oscilates on mood, sentiment and yes, even on the lack of fundamentals. As an investor it makes sense to try and capture as much profit as possible. By sitting out this last bear rally a profit of 20 to 40 percent could have been gained. This profit could be used on the inverse etf’s when the market turns south, perhaps at the end of this month or mid July.At that point you (in one sense) are not risking your initial capital.
Thanks again for your great comments and your very helpful and accurate information. James (Canada)
Martin
I am content to hold long term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market.
BUT MARTIN – YOU NEED TO SAY to people does this mean that holding 2X inverse ETFs on stocks through this time is the thing to do??? Or are you referring to limited positions in the unleveraged inverse ETFs. I think people need to hear your answer to this.
Thank you and with great respect,
Tony
I’m the type who jumps in when I see the market going down, but then I’ll sit on the sidelines durning the short rallies. I hate being in inverse funds while the market goes up. I’m tired of loosing money even during short term rallies. Could The Inverse ETF financials RFN and FAZ have great potential when the markets go down again. Very high volume on FAZ.
At this point in time, I believe in: physical silver and gold, in that oder. Commodities like oil, natural gas, industrial metals, selected agricultural commodites, simply all commodities demanded in asian markets. Solid companies producing these commodities and paying two digit dividends.
My capital is limited. A conservative strategy that will yield exceptional returns is to take a strong bear market position and then have patience. The rally we have been witnessing and the cheerleading by financial commentators feels completely surreal. This is a PR campaign supported by many financial commentators and investors (perhaps the FED as well??) who vision a return to what we use to know as “normal”. When the inevitable bear returns and finishes it’s meal then we’ll all be forced to restructure our lifestyles into a more sustainable way of living. Real capital will be the bonds we forge inside our local communities to support all of it’s inhabitants.
Your basic long term recommendations are investments in gold & commodities, inverse ETF’s, and lots of cash. I think this is the only way to play the market now,and buy time until we see some stabilization, a market bottom, and the new opportunities to follow. Otherwise it’s rolling the dice.
I prefer to watch the market closely and to trade short term options in the immediate direction of the market, however, mindful that at least at this time, the major trend is down.
I invested in the “Gone Fishin’Portfolio” and also have jumped on the short term profits. However, I still have major cash from getting out last summer.
I am definitely on the side of “itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend”
I prefere the later of your two choices. Waiting for the Market to turn at my age, might never happen, so my only choice is to try and recoop some of my loses by being more agressive. But, I do realise the risk involved, but what the heck, if others can make money in this environment, why can’t I? I guess we shall see. Thanks for all the great insight and information. However things are a bit different here in Canada, where, when the US snezes, we catch the cold. But I can not complain too much, our Banks are fine and our dollar is rising because of the week US dollar. Makes it more tollerable to buy things in the US, where they are sometime much cheaper then in Canada. Thank you again and keep up the good work.
Ray K
I believe in the long run the government spending will not stop so over time inflation will have to surface. This will cause commodities to go up interest rates to go up possibly the stock market to go up and the dollar to go down. I have prepared for this by having invested in physical silver, silver etf’s,inverse treasury etf”s, gold mining stocks, canadian trust gas and oil, annuities with A rated insurance companies, diversified mutual fund and about 25% cash. I don’t think the country can turn this ship around in my lifetime. I am 72. I know that no country has been able to make fiat money work. I have 3 of your services safe money, real wealth and contrarion. I study them all. I find them very useful.
Most of us dont have patience when markets are rising 30% even though its a bear market rally since March6 or so. Those of us who lost until march 2009 and missing this 30% rally does get hurt. Since bear market rallies can last a long time 9 years in Nasdeq, I would prefer to invest in these rallies and keeping some inverse positions (what % of total portfolio ). Since the markets are going to go side ways for a while, investors only playing bear market plays may not make money for a long time and lose patience and enter the market at a wrong time. I would prefer to be in stocks ,which are in a trend but not dependant on day to day news and to make some profit in a bear market.
Martin,
I’m not interested in investing to make-money-now, and I will have no part in that mentality. I make money now at my day job. For many years I strived to make money for retirement now. I did it with stocks, mutual funds, eventually jumping into commodity trading with both feet. I know all about straddles and short-selling, writing options both covered and uncovered, heads-and-shoulders, day-trading, agriculture reports, hedgers vs. speculators, etc. I’ve trading almost every commodity there is. With the stock market I was not risk-averse. I could scarcely tolerate standing on the sidelines while so many others were reporting profits of 20%, 40%, 150%. I subscribed to one system after another. Eventually I came to believe that commodity trading was the only way to make any real money. But here I sit today having seen 40 % of my retirement savings evaporate last fall in the grand deception that is the stock market, and long since realized that commodity trading is for professionals who do it 24-7. As of today I’m ready to forget about all investing, period, but to use whatever savings I still have to (1) pay off my mortgage ASAP, (2) build up cash in the safest places I can find, to live on later, and (3) never retire from work. But I’m willing to follow yours and Claus’ recommendations exactly with some of what savings I have left, because your current approach is the only one left that makes sense to me. I understand that losses are inevitable — please don’t cave to the profits-now or what-have-you-done-for-me-today subscribers; I suggest you re-direct them to follow Larry Edelson or Jim Cramer instead, and maybe they can help them for what they need. Darlene and I thank you and Claus for your steady, rational, credible perspective and advice. If your approach does not in the long run help us preserve what small savings we have, then I won’t be investing in anything again. — E.K.
I would like investment advise in two areas. One is short term maybe trader.
Two longer term with an eye on income and longer trend.
Martin,
For those that can’t devote the time (or knowledge)to stay on top of the market trends and actively manage their portfolio, stay very conservative. This market is both a gold mine and a mine field. If you know what you are doing and can actively manage your portfolio, the ups and downs of this market present a lot of opportunity. I subscribe to both bears and bulls investment newsletters to always keep myself balanced in my outlook. Safe Money helped me protect my portfolio last year and make a little and this year, so far, the bulls have helped make some money while the bulls have had their way. I am not optimistic about the economy, our government or the markets but when opportunity knocks, whether bull or bear, I try to take advantage of it. Keep on keeping the bear in me alive with the Safe Money Report.
Hi Martin,
Listen I do believe we are going down to dow = 5000
So far Larry E. has been correct in his forecasting.
I have been Buying the up side and profiting nicely.
My portfolio is up over 60%
When I signed up for the Contrarian I was looking for direction.
I take great comfort in knowing the story behind the scenes(whats going to happen)
I’m also watching for the downward turn and will be ready.
Thanks to you and your staff,
Jeff
Martin,
Frankly I follow both views.
I place most of my portfolio behind the bear market thinking as written in Safe Money Report, the Million Dollar Contrarian, and your other services.
However, I have also used a portion of my funds to grab some gains during the brief rally periods. By utilizing stops, I can control losses if the market moves against me.
By the way, by using this strategy (and with the rally’s strength) I have realized a sizeable gain over the last 2 months. I have also been able to erase and exit some issues which have been a paper “loss” for some time. Overall, this process has worked for me (“to date”)
Without your services and the news information, I would not have been successful.
I really enjoy and appreciate all of your services.
The Safe Money Report portfolio inverse ETF’s are down considerably. Fortunately, it is just a small portion of my overall porfolio. I started to slowly reinvest back into the market several months ago based on other investment newsletter recommendations. I had always held on to most of my gold holdings, but I started to buy more several months ago including oil, oil services, commodities and a little in other stock sectors.
My porfolio has increased so much in value during this bear market rally that even if it drops to my trailing stops, I’ll still make a nice profit. It’s interesting to note that a good portion of these gains have been made on recommendations from former associates of Money & Markets.
My investment portfolio inverse ETF’s are down considerably. Fortunately, it is just a small portion of my overall porfolio. I started to slowly reinvest back into the market several months ago based on other investment newsletter recommendations. I had always held on to most of my gold holdings, but I started to buy more several months ago including oil, oil services, commodities and a little in other stock sectors.
My porfolio has increased so much in value during this bear market rally that even if it drops to my trailing stops, I’ll still make a nice profit. It’s interesting to note that a good portion of these gains have been made on recommendations from former associates of Money & Markets.
I don’t know why you can’t do both things in a large portfolio, have some cash, gold and inverse ETFs, but also trade a smaller percentage with the bull trend, while it lasts. Why do you need to be exclusively one or the other? Your team must have the expertise to do both at once.
I am an 85 yr old who has never trusted the stock market. I was a limited partner in a brokerage house in the 1960’s and saw all the back room nonsense. In those days a 6000 trade day was a profitable day. Of course the 1967 crash changed all that. No one knows what tommorrow will bring and certainly not 10 years from now. My investments are in pre-refunded muni’s and 90 day t-bills plus TIPS. Of course my age has a lot to do with my holdings. I believe you are correct in expecting the worst in the short term
(next 1-3 years) but who knows?
I, too, am in MDP and plan on staying the course. But I also look for good companies that are selling for bargain prices. The problem is knowiong what a bargain price is. With today’s earnings picture PE’s do not look so good, while price to net asset values look apealing. But then there’s inflation to keep in mind. It’s confusing. These are tough times to read and I feel a stronger need for guidance. Gudiance that says “be patient” is easier to follow than one saying “buy this or that”. Who can you trust?
At my advanced age, short term and long term hardly differ. I skip those sparkling opportunities and try to hold a 3% return. While I have a substantial GLD position, research discloses that GLD may be more paper than gold. With Robert Ruben as its principal, would you sleep soundly? I try to catch some obvious trends, like oil (up) and long-term bonds (down). I understand tht “you can’t take it with you”, but I hope to go on a full stomach, if an empty wallet.
I would like to see some money now. I am 69 years old and not too many years left in my life. And we do a little bit of option strategy to hedge our position?
Martin
I wish you and your group of advisors would make up your collective minds and decide if either the dollar is going to collapse or the stock market is going to collapse, because BOTH can’t happen, it’s impossible !
Carl Bunch
Martin,
Why not to try to make some profits riding on this “temporary bull”?
Regards,
Thadeus
Martin,
I am a first time ever investor and I went with the Contrarian Portfolio because of its wisdom and safety. I still believe it is the best plan giving I don’t have a lot to invest yet. However, I wouldn’t mind seeing more “green” in my Contrarian portfolio at Fidelity now and I have been speaking correctly over it to double and then keep doubling. If some of the Weiss team have a solid track history of success trading in the short term bear market rallies and could direct the way, I as a first time investor would feel okay about jumping in to try it. But alone and a beginner I do not have enough knowledge to know what is good and when to get in and out. Thank you for asking us.
Some people..a lot of people..sadly..have no faith in this country. No where else on the planet or in history has any nation been able to achieve..domestically..the things we have and to accomplish them in relative peace and harmony. If its such a terrible place..why do thousands of people risk life and limb trying to come here every day?
That being said..we have some challenges ahead. Can we get through them? Sure..as long as we turn off “American Idol” and maybe pick up a book every now and then. Sadly..only a few people will actually do that. And its always easier to beat up than build up. Martin..I appreciate your insight and I admire your ability to make hay when the sun shines. Yet..I’m afraid you do more harm than good. If I didn’t sort of have a grasp as to what was going on..I would have killed myself a long time ago after reading your pieces. You scare people. Of course..good news doesn’t sell papers. Nothing wrong with your money management techniques. But..they may be a wee bit too complex for Joe Investor reading your scare sheet. But as the guy who paints astroturf says..”I dye grass”..
What kind of investor am I? One that has averaged 21% a year over the last 9 years. My math might be fuzzy..but I’m pretty sure that beats the benchmark. Last year total return was 59%. So far..I’m +39.9% YTD. Haven’t owned common equity in 2 years. haven’t owned a government bond in years. Never owned a commodity futures contract. Never been short..anything. Never been long or short an option. Might’ve owned one ETF. I think I broke even. Owned two income oriented open ended mutual funds for a year when I was inactive and still made a couple of bucks. My strategy is simple: Buy and hold is a scam. Trading securities is a business and you have to have a business plan. An entrance and exit strategy on both the up and down side. Go fishing where no one else goes. Where the herd is afraid to go. When the blood is in the streets. And again..have a target..a REASONABLE target. If you get obscene price appreciation in a short time period take the gain. The ne’er do well brother in law who always shows up late and drunk to family functions that is also known as “the market” has given you a gift. Take it and be grateful. Pay attention to pundits and letter writers and bloggers only to guage what the general mood is and realize that those people don’t care about managing your money. They care about selling letters..subscriptions..advertising..how they’re hair looks..etc. Yes..Martin..even you.
Good luck and G-d bless!!!
-Mobile, AL
I agree with king Solomon – ” …he who gathers money little by little makes it grow”. (from Proverbs 13:11.) As a sheep farmer’s daughter (poor) in South Africa, I was in awe of the local doctor who bought gold at $35 an ounce. I remember it then climbing slowly and steadily to $800. Toqueville Gold has been good to me over the years. There is no substitute for common sense, and that’s what I appreciate about Martin Weiss.
I prefer the longer term view and will wait for profits. My only concern as I stated yesterday is that my $10,000 initial investment is getting eaten up with commissions at $19.95 per trade. Pluus I`v got $2,500 fee for your services for two years. Not sure I`ll make any of this up with profits. Maybe I should look for more money to add to my Fidelity account? Thanks for your continued advice. Ray in Tampa.
Martin:
I am an MCD participant and quite honestly a bit upset about not taking at least some advantage of this latest rally especially since this may (or may not) go on for a while. I do understand the desire to preserve our capital and to have a long term perspective of things. That said, it seems to me that buying inverse ETFs was in fact it was a play that was based on the supposition that the market was going to head down in a relatively short term. Given that these instruments are not designed to be good for either long term or as a buy and hold strategy, then Claus was in fact playing the market for the short term, albeit just in the opposite direction. I don’t see how that is much different than playing the bull rally for what it was.
I’ve been reading the blogs regularly and yes there are 2 different types of investors. Some are more content to sit on the sidelines and wait while others desire to make some quick gains when the opportunity presents itself, maybe to be able to better participate in the “substantial” profits when the bear really roars. Is it not possible to provide this service to both if the more aggressive group understood and agreed to the risk? I for one would be willing to allocate some additional funds to the portfolio so as not to throw off my original plan.
If this were to be done it would be purely discretionary and clearly indicated as not a recommendation for the long term MCD portfolio. I don’t see that carefully selected stocks in this rally are not any more risky then the inverse ETFs given that they lose value over time and no one really knows when this market will head in the opposite direction.
I’m trying to be a combination of both types of investors-chase the rally selectively but watch the long term . Is this possibly successful using your advice and following the contrarian portfolio as well as individual recommendations from you and the other members of your team?
HI…and thanks for your dedication.
While I so enjoy the work that you do — and the informative perspective that you give me — I am troubled by the performance that I am experiencing in accounts by following the Million Dollar recommendations. How do I put this in perspective? While I believe that the economy is in a shambles — short positions in accounts are taking it on the chin — and I can’t lose any more money. What can we do to profit here? Please advise — and maybe it’s time to redirect the portfolio. Thanks, Joan
What kind of investor are YOU?
Are you content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that you’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
Or are you itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend?
I think i am both — i want to invest most of my money long term.
However I am itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend.
Longterm investor all the way. I’m really been hit by short term losses, so I feel I’ve learned my lession. Thanks for all your advice and insight!!!
once again aka 1930s socialism comes through to save capitalism
I am, at this point, trying to follow both paths, so far ok but holding my breath.
I AM IN THE CONTRARIAN ADVISORY ON ONE HAND WHILE ONTHE OTHER AMHOLDING A LARGER NUMBER OF GLOBAL EQUITIES OF PAST EXCELLENCE AND AM TAKING PROFITS AS THEY GAIN.
I am retired, and consider myself involved/ interested in both the fundamental as well as the technical approach to investing. In my experience, both must be used in successful investing, along with risk management.
As I must rely (almost entirely) on my retirement funds, I try to avoid “catching a falling knife” and prefer to avoid trying to catch the “tops” and “bottoms” by playing the middle 80% of the trend in both directions where possible. To me, timing is a critical ingredient.
I am not a “gambler” and, as such, do not comfortably agree with any investment approach that does not consider all of the above.
Hi Martin,
I am interested in using a 35% portion of my IRA holding for short term trading. I was faithful for years to long term investing and found out that every 7 years we are in some sort of crisis which wipes out in a short period of time years of slow earnings. The mutual funds I used did nothing to protect this sensitive investments made fop retirement in down markets and were hapy to colect their fee in any marked up or down. Since I read your letters I beacme convins that the only way to survive market turbulences is to get educated and make your own decisions.
I appreciate your work and hope to ride this tough times preventing the damages done to our portfolios by incompetent money manegers. Adding an advisory letter for short term investing is a great idea.
Regards
I liked the analogy of our situation being like a ship in a storm at sea. Just too bad we have to wait for 4 years to throw the captain overboard.
Dear Martin,
First, thanks for saving my modest personal portfolio back when the tech bubble burst. I was a subscriber then, and although I didn’t move quite as fast as you recommended, I lost only 1.8% of my investment capital. All my friends did much worse – including a CPA.
I’m an economist (I taught at U.Houston), then a pastor (retired now) and a starter of charities for the poor. I started and ran 2 very large homeless shelters – still going strong – and another charity that helped people move from welfare to work. All of them aimed at helping our clients move “up and out” of their predicaments, with “tough love” and also with success rates of 65%-75% over the years. (See http://www.upandout.us). I no longer have personal investments, but follow your advice through your free newsletter in order to give better over-all advice myself, which often includes financial matters.
Shortly I expect to start up another charitable effort and to start fund-raising again as a part of that. When we get to the point of havng reserve funds, I will need to handle them wisely.
How would I do that? In times like these, I’m not sure. I think I would put most of it into gold and laddered CD’s, since not losing any of our reserves would be my first fiduciary responsibility. I would probably allocate a small part – 10% or less – into your recommendations for shorter term profit-making opportunities. I regard that as an additional fund-raising opportunity, with the right advisor, and if reasonable caution is exercised. Then to keep another 20% or less in cash, partly for emergencies, and partly to increase our reserves by investing in good buying opportunities, after we hit bottom and start back up. Because it would be other people’s money, not my own, I would be a very, very conservative investor at every step.
Will America survive? I’m very aware of not knowing the future. But I am very concerned. Surviving as a socialist entity – I’m not sure that means survival of “America.” If that would also be an ‘anti-war” socialism, I think we would not protect ourselves adequately from aggressive countries, and might not survive as an independent nation, whether socialist or not.
But my next charity will be aimed at making the kinds of basic changes needed for America’s survival, and as an “American” capitalist democracy, and as a good country, continuing on the foundations laid by our Founders. What kinds of changes would it take? Something with a good chance of reversing the 40-year growth of statistically-alarming social pathologies we have been suffering. Also, reversing the steadily increasing “loss” of more of our youth every year to bad education and non-realistic, tooth-fairy ideas of economics, politics and relationships. If that loss is not reversed, it might indeed all be over. My rough guess would be in possibly 20 years or so.
That means our charity would focus on the “shapers of youth” – primarily education, but also media, entertainment and pop culture. It would also mean invigorating the “shapers of morality,” which are ultimately religious, emanating from our founding Judeo-Christian heritage. (As the Founders wrote, our new republic and constitution would work only with “a religious and moral people.”)
What our new charity will do (we already have an “umbrella” non-profit 501(3)(c) ready, and an experienced Board of Directors) is to focus first on developing new, excellent, private religious schools, primarily Christian or Jewish, often linked to individual churches or synagogues. On attracting students to them from government schools. On developing enough scholarships that a large number of less-prosperous students can attend. Then to focus on building that movement up enough to serve about half of the students in the country. If we have at least 10-20 years to educate around half the students in the country in such schools, I think that could turn the U.S. around. And in a more permanent, lasting way than anything else could do. It’s results would be wide-spread, profoundly affecting politics, culture, and everything else.
At least, so we hope and pray. Please, wish us luck!
Like many I use both strategies. I’m currently invested in an option play(Straight call) on GERN Geron and I like microcaps as well, like EXOU Exousia. With the advent of Inverse ETF’s I use DOG and DXD which I call Dog and Double-Dog. It seems so far, that if I play DXD and use a covered call strategy on it, I’m able to hold on to it for longer periods and get paid for doing so. Martin I especially use you service of The Safe Money Report to understand what’s going in relation to the Big picture and longer term. I’m better able to understand the economics of the government and see how it affects investments.
Keep up the good work you do.
Bob K.
P.S. Oh..and ALWAYS get compensated for your risk. Aim for a yield of 6% or better while you wait.
-Seth Cherniak
dear martin, I read all your emails I am at this very moment shorting your dow,I dont own any american stock, what happens when they stop this crazy situation of printing money, oil has peaked now, what happens then, we like you have a very corrupt regime in charge and europe is bleeding us dry 40 million a day you could not make that up if you wanted too.
Terry Shead.
I AM IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL THE COMMENTS. I AM ON ONLY ONE SIDE AND THAT IS SAFETY FOR LIFE AND LIMB AND WHATEVER IT TAKES TO SUPPORT IT. WHEN A GOVERNMENT TRIES AS HARD AS OURS HAS AND IS TRYING
TO LOAD THE SUPREME COURT WITH JUDGES WHO ARE ANTI THE 2ND AMMENDMENT,
THE RIGHT TO OWN GUNS IT BECOMES EVEN SCARIER. EVERY GOVERNMENT WHO HAS OUTLAWED PRIVATE OWNERSHIP OF “THE MEANS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM GOV’T” HAS ENDED AS A DICTATORSHIP THROUGH THE ROUTE OF SOCIALISM,
COMMUNISM, OR FASCISM. GENERALLY VOTED IN BY LIBERALS WHO BELIEVE IN A STRONG GOV’T TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE GREEDY INDIVIGUALISTS WHO HAVE
PROVIDED THEM WITH A LIVELYHOOD.
HAVING SAID THAT I CAN EASILY ENUMERATE MY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, SILVER
COINS AND SMALL BARS, GOLD COINS AND SMALL BARS, GUNS OF ALL SORTS
A GOOD SAFE PLACE TO LIVE AWAY FROM POPULIZED CITIES. I OWN NO PAPER
(FIAT) MONEY OF ANY SORT INCLUDING T-BILLS WHICH ARE DOLLARS SPELLED
DIFFERENTLY. I HAVE OWNED SLV AND GLD, BUT THESES ARE PAPER WITH A TRAIL.
I AM NOT LOOKING FOR A PROFIT, ONLY SURVIVAL. I THINK I HAVE ENOUGH TO DO
THAT FOR THE NEXT 20+ YEARS.
I hedge US holdings against Canadian $. Do not own “the market” but do own US stocks that exploit technologies and managements based on insights that fortunately I am able to generate every now and again. I am not much for pinpoint timing.
I AM A 74 YEAR OLD WIDOW AND I NATURALLY WANT TO MAKE MORE MONEY RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BY THE WAY, I DO NOT AGREE THAT “IF WE SURVIVE THIS RECESSION AS A SOCIALISTIC COUNTRY THAT WE WILL BE ALL RIGHT”!! WE DO NOT NEED TO LET WASHINGTON D.C. AND PRES. OBAMA DO THIS TO US. WE NEED TO STAND UP AND FIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!! N. WILLIAMS
“
Martin,
I shy away from short term trades, opting to move in a slower, more deliberate manner. I would prefer less risk on growth and definite protection of my principal. I guess that’s why I like your Safe Money Report and the Contrarian Portfolio. I also like Klaus’ technical and philosophical approach. Agressive trading me brings more anxiety and there’s enough of that in the world already.
Both long- and short-term investment strategies are needed in this volatile environment. Long-term investments, like gold and select high-dividend paying stocks with low P/E, yield >10%, payout ratio <70% (to reduce risk of dividend cut), high profit margins, sound business model with most, if not all, business outside the US (sorry, but the US economy is in serious trouble for years to come), and preferably selling for less than book value, are great buy and provide insulation against inflation (or hyper-inflation, coming soon to America). On the other hand, short-term plays can be outrageously profitable. Just look at how Citigroup shot through the ceiling from trading below $1 during the March 2009 bottom to over $4 after only a month! Barclays is even more outrageous: skyrocketing from below $3 during the March bottom to over $20 just days ago, now still trading at above $16 after massive sell-offs. That which falls the most usually rises the most. To make money you need to be a contrarian: pessimism dominated Wall Street as stocks were on free fall during early March 2009, and that was precisely the time to buy. This has since been a long bear market rally, and might still have some leg to run, as bearish sentiments still predominate. I doubt, however, that the Dow will reach 10,000 before a significant pullback. I think there is a good chance stocks will make new lows surpassing those in March, but I am not sure given the looming danger of hyperinflation. While I am almost 100% sure that the Dow in gold (real money) still has a long way to fall, eventually reaching 1:1 Dow:gold ratio, I cannot predict whether the Dow in nominal value in US dollar will fall or rise in this hyperinflationary era. Given our massive money printing, if we are to experience a hyperinflation like Zimbabwe or Argentina or Brazil or post-WWI Germany, the Dow could literally go to 1,000,000 in US dollars. Therefore, shorting stocks is ill-advised, because stocks presumably have some values, while the fiat paper dollar can fall much more in hyperinflationary times.
THE WORLD IS NOW NEARLY ALL SOCIALIST OR DICTATORSHIP, AT THE RATE WE
ARE ALLOWING OUR GOV’T TO GROW, THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS SOCIALISM,
A CERTAINTITY. THE WORST I DO NOT WANT TO PUT ON PAPER.
Martin, I am not a trader, I invest when I have a strong conviction that the trend will turn in my chosen direction. I do not follow the crowd. I hold for no specific length of time. I held oil for 5 years. I hold none today. [I am considering the falling dollar vs. the falling demand-vs. the huge inventories. I am uncertain, so I am not in the market on this play. So, hope this answers your questions. Thanks for all you do. Harry Coambes
I teach a consumer class on fianances- note I am not commissioned in any way- in over 40 high schools and colleges. I find there are two types of investors. The hare who thinks he can beat wall street and the turtle who plods along. The hare keeps getting ripped of in limited partnerships, reits, cdo, tech stocks, variable annuities.etc. The turtle has index and balanced funds and does not care what wall street creates every five years. The turtle wins in the end. I have noticed every five years the hare gets burned and the turtle wins big time.
It appears there are no obvious answers to our current dilemma. Much of the future seems predicated on the unpredictable whims and vagaries of human attitude and actions. Thus my attitude is to examine ALL of the forecasts and meanwhile try to prepare for ANY eventuality. The only certainty is that the future is quite uncertain.
One analyst says gold will crash because the government is NOT printing money, they are borrowing it in the form of sale of treasury bills, notes and bonds and therefore there is no chance of inflation in the future. What say you?
I have used the rally for profit and to slowly divest from so-called blue chip stocks that had been hammered. I am glad I held, but I think the rally is about spent and plan to sell the last of it soon. I am left with about 50% gold and gold miners, 5% silver and silver miners, some ag, water, oil and gas, TBT, and cash. I subscribe to million-dollar contrarian but have not bought any inverse ETFs yet. I may do that on the next big up day.
It has been painful to watch the recent rally but having a good grasp of the big picture thanks to you and Klaus tests our true beliefs which are long term. We believe timing this correction is more than anyone could do, so we wait in a safe position following your advice. Those who wait will be the winners in the long run as everything you have predicted is slowly coming true. For 6 months we have followed your lead and I believe your predictions will prevail and we will profit more than any short term trading strategy will.
Dear Martin,
My strategy is to never go against the trend. Because I have a medium/long term view, and because this view is bearish on anything (except the dollar), I doe not try to make money during bear market rallies.
So I sell the tops ald will be selling with both hands when the top is in.
To know when the top of a bear market rally is in, is difficult. The technique is to let the top pass, wait for a small dynamic decline which tells me that the trend has reestablished, then wait until a small correction happens and start selling in waves, each time on a secondary top.
With best regards
René
My portfolio has a split personality. Though it leans toward a bear market belief with inverse ETFs, it loves a little occasional “side bet” on a “shooting star”, getting out before its enthusiasm fizzles.
Millie Thomson
At 73 y/o, I am interested, first, in keeping my principle, second, adding to it to keep its original earning power, and third, very hopefully, adding significantly to the modest investment we have made as we test these investment waters with you for the first time.
My wife and I cannot afford to lose our current resources, and need to add to them, as we have much creative, community-building work to do in people’s lives.
Plus, this is a test of trusting someone else’s investment research and advice.
Thanks for the continuing education and communication.
Dr. Weiss
I listen to the mainstream media where they are touting a recovery is right around the corner. I talk with my frien who is a VP for Wachovia and his experts are saying just about the same thing encouraging people not to hesitate to get back in the market. I speak with a lot of people during the day, most haven’t a clue and say this is just a market correction.
Thank God for you and your advisers for cutting through the clutter. I am long on TBT, SKF, GLD, GROW, AUY, SLV using both options and stock purchases. As they say at the poker table “I’m all in for this hand”.
I use the Safe Money and Real Wealth report to educate any body who will listen, the truth is difficult to find in the media, like you, I want as many people to protect and grow their wealth and be ready for the re-building of this great nation.
I regard the market a most uninteresting topic. Alas, I must follow what goes on, take some action when required, or starve. I will forego maximum profit because more aggresive people will beat me to it, regardless of my actions. Afterall, is not avoiding such an unpleasant task a form of income? I have found that my financial advisor is unwilling/unable to minimize my losses, so I must.
I’m itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks or other equities move between the waves of the major trend.
Martin,
Thanks for your advice and observations about the direction the administration is taking the US economy. To use the train analogy, we are being told there is light at the end of the tunnel. What those people don’t mention is that in the mountains, after going through a tunnel, the track crosses a deep valley and the trestle is out. I am relying on your insight to help me protect my retirement portfolio.
While I know the MCP is intended to preserve capital and make the most profit from the long term trend, I would appreciate some advice about ways to build my portfolio during these short bear market rallies. The other investment letters I have seen treat this as a bull market (buy buy buy) and I need some advice with a bear market flavor (“buy with caution”).
Martin:
I do not agree that this is a “Tale of Two Investors”.
It certainly appears from all the facts
Martin, currently the gov. is doing everything in its power to create the image that all is fine. The visit to China by Geithner and the reaction by the students to his comments on the safety and security of the Chinese investment in our treasuries speaks volumes. But I believe that the Chinese are demanding and getting some type of collateral for these treasuries…..maybe it is our federal lands as they are ever expanding or maybe the state of Texas but the Chinese are clever and long-term players…..they will get something to not pull the rug out and we will pay for it later. This is all about the collapse of the late great U.S.A. all by design of the Int. Bankers. Bill
I am a member of your contrarian portfolio with about half of my investment capital. I need income from my portfolio as a whole and wonder what to do with the other half. I am wondeering about dividend paying stocks that are financially sound and positioned to weather the recession – in other words, conservative as possible in today’s enviroment. what do you think about stocks such as utilities, stocks like att , and/or canadian trusts ? Some seem sound and pay good dividends. thanks, Ed.
I have always been conservative in my investing, having my money is stocks, bonds, cds, mutual funds and government securities. Now retired, I am content with smaller yields to protect my nest egg. My conservativeness has paid off with no major losses in my overall portfolio the past 18 months. My investments are not gaining alot, but not losing either. I too am concerned with the amount of foreclosures we are probably going to see. Was told that 1,000,000 mortgages in my state of New Jersey will reset this summer a higher rates, people are going to struggle to pay these leading to phase 2 in the banking industry. Do own a few shares of JP Morgan, so see how that does over the next few months.
Martin, I have never invested before or know how to go about it. I have had a broker do it for me and I am not happy with the latest results, so how do I get started and what kind of money do I have to put up to get started ? I am not getting any younger and have realized I need to take a closer look and control of my future and am willing to learn all I can with your help to better serve my families future. God Bless.
I adjusted my portfolio to 35% equities and 65% bonds and cash early 2009. I am 52 and took a major hit to my 401k (losing 33%) last year. The risk in loss of principle is to great in this enviroment and the time horizon to make up too short and unpredictable. For all of the reasons stated regarding government spending, weak demand, loss of jobs, state and local governments have furlough employees. Former stellar businesses leveraged to the hill and notes coming due and no cash to pay them. Major suppliers of materials to the housing and auto sector facing continued weak demand, loss of home equity, stagnant wages and lack of employment opportunities that pay more than minimum wages. We’ve been sold a bill of goods and to think there was talk of investing folks social security in the stock market. Are you serious? How can you be bullish? Some folks seem to think with China producing goods that somehow folks will buy them. Duh, I don’t think so. With want? Does this mean deflation? What about all the newly printed money? Are we facing serious run away inflation? While some pundits argue (correctly) that over time stocks out perform bonds, what if you don’t have the time to “fully recover”? It’s to big a risk in my opinion if you’re sitting on less than a $1MM. Sure the big boys like Buffet can argue for “investing in stocks” and the Business TV experts can talk it up, but the everyday main street Sallys and Johnnies don’t have the luxury of the kind of option play he and others get.
I think we’re in for a 3-5 year cycle that is unprecedented. Hold on to your money and invest wisely.
I am a retired investor that has six relatively large stock holdings in large firms that have essentially zero basis because of a roll-over ESOP and an exchange for my small company. All of the above holdings have significant dividend yields. I have held onto those during this down period but I am selling calls against them at times. I also have bought inverse ETF’s both on the market in general and on specific industries that these companies are in. I also have invested in gold coins, American gold eagle, to about a 5% of total portfolio and silver to about 1%. I wrestle with myself whether or not I should sell some of those holdings. But, the longer term calls essentially do that in terms of a commitment. I cannot see myself investing in new stocks during 2009 because of the government spending and socialistic trend we are on. If the politicians were to move our tax approach toward the Fair Tax, or perhaps even a flat tax, I think the countries financial condition would improve rapidly and so would the market. As of now, I believe the market trend will be down for the remainder of this year and probably next year as well.
I’d like to go with the dominant trend.
The bear market rally may end at any time now. It’s not worth taking chances at this point.
i feel like your second investor you describe. i am often frustrated by the advice i receive from you. i am a member of the money and markets, but also the contrarian portfolio. there seems to be not much difference between the two, but at the same time, the hold and wait game of the m&m versus the more active contrarian is somewhat unnerving.
i am also frustrated that all gains posted by inverse etfs you recomended are now wiped out by the up trend of the market.
so, yes, i would prefer to see a two pronged approach of long term holdings that keep their value and short term buys that take advantage of the rallies.
thank you
Basically I am really afraid the future looks quite dim. I see nothing but really high inflation in the future, as govt. entities and others including Banks try to recoupe their losses at our expense. For instance the recent 24% upward re-evaluation of my residential property flies in the face of the potentially 20 to 30% devaluation of that same property. But the local government has to survive also, so I doubt they will listen to my appeal. This and increased taxes by our federal govt and state govts. , and potentially lowered payments by Social Security, and state retirement funds paints a picture of a double squeeze on those on fixed incomes. The reality is that eventually many more of us will lose our houses, and become wards of the state–as a result of those actions of the very same government bodies that caused all of this mess.
So it is a very bleak time, with my small accumulations in a 401K having been descimated, and not knowing what if anything is the right approach to grow those deminished assets.
I’m sticking with you even though I find not taking advantage of the short term gains difficult. I’m anxious to know what to invest it as the interest rates go up. Looking for long term higher rates.
Dear Martin,
I’m in the Million Dollar Potfolio and I am convinced that you have given us the right advice. Your views on the forces operating on the economy now and how those forces will play out in the near future are in line with Martin Armstrong, Gerald Celente and the Autrian School of Economics. The people running the show in Washington are only trying to preserve their positions of authority. Indeed their clothes are off and we can see that there really isn’t anything to brag about underneath. Thank you for your honest analyisis and the conviction to stand by it.
One of your commenters suggested writing covered calls on his gold position. Would doing so fit into the MDCP?
Thank you again for saving my 401(k),
WJW
Hi Martin: As an older investor I rely on investments that do not lose value and pay decent dividends. Rignt now, not knowing where the bottom is I keep my money in the safest investments I can find. As T bills pay almost nothing and it appears that Obama is spending us into insolvency I have chosen a class A bank (Washington Federal) CD. At least it pays more than T Bills.
I am currently 27% equities 7% gold and silver ETF’s and the balance in CD’s, MM accts, Merc Hard Currency and Vanguard TIPS fund. I am expecting another move down, but do not want to be 100% out of equities in case I am wrong. I am 54 and concerned / focused on retirement. I expect significant inflation ahead and a decreasing dollar (thus my position in gold/silver, hard currency and TIPS).
Hi, Martin:
I’m the type of investor who wants to do the following in order of priority:
1. Follow the basic strategy of the $1M Contrarian Portfolio to protect the majority of my investable assets and to take advantage of the current long=term trend
2. Use a portion of my assets (10-15%) o invest in quality stocks and ETFs that will benefit from short term rallies using appropriate tools like trailing stop-loss orders to protect my principle and to lock in any gains made
3. Use covered calls and puts to leverage a small portion of my investments in 2 above to make a little more profit
Keep up the great work. It helps me greatly to become a more disciplined investor.
Chris
Background: I was forced into early retirement due to a lay off, at the end of 2004. After filling out reams of paper questionnaires, the people at Fidelity told me I had enough money to last me until I was 80 years old. Now, I have enough money to get me through the next 4-5 years, and I will probably end up losing my house, along with the hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in it; never mind the hundreds of thousands flushed down the stock market toilet. I am 63 years old looking for a job in a county with a 16+% unemployment rate. At least I am in good health and I can still work should I ever find someone who will hire me. I figure I have about 20 years left on the planet, that is not enough time for the stock market to recover from this mess IMHO. I need to recoup some of the money I have lost, yet I need long term investments to get me through my really old age. So I am straddling the fence on both sides of this question. I am a member of the $1M Contrarian Portfolio, and I invested a small amount of money in the Dividend Superstars portfolio with Nilus Mattive (shortly after the March plunge in the market, so I think even when the market goes down again I probably won’t lose too much money there, and maybe I will break even; I plan on holding on to those stocks unless Nilus says to sell them), both of which I look at as long term investments. I sure would like to be making some money on this bull run, though. But, having been so thoroughly burned once, I am too timid to jump into the stock market now. Maybe this is a good thing. I keep repeating Claus’ mantra: be patient! But when you are my age, and almost everything you saved your whole life has been wiped out, patience is at a premium!
Why don’t we do both ??? Trade the rally, with resonable stops; and sit tight on our short positions for the long term.
Most of my clients are long-term investors. Where do you think they should position themselves to profit over the next 10-year span and beyond?
I am more confident than ever that the worst for the economy and the market are in front of us. It is amazing how a simple change in sentiment can have such a dramatic effect on the market. Thinking back to the catalyst for this bear market rally… mark to market accounting and the stress tests applied to the banks. Forgive my cynicism, but that is a joke.
So how to make money now… Wait for the market to top out and then short this market with a vengeance. For those who want the biggest bang for their buck. Leap options on FAZ. Right now with a $7000.00 investment you can control 100 contracts of FAZ with a strike price of 30. So you have approximately 18 months for the bear to return. Which should be more than enough time. If the current bear market rally does continue (which I think it will) and the Dow reaches 9700, these options will get cut in half. If that happens a $7000.00 investment will control 200 contracts or 20,000 shares.
Bottom line: We are experiencing wave B up of a A down B up C down Supercycle pattern. After wave B up completes look out below, the coming wave C down will be a cataclysmic event. It is unfortunate this is going to happen. Wave C down will bring the Dow to 3000. The RIFIN financial index will be 250. That is the bullish case!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
JR
Hello Martin, I enjoy your publication very much. I have invested in fixed Annuities. I am worried about the future as the administration continues talks about taking everyone’s 401k and managing it for them. Nationalized banks in my opinion are no good as it gives government the opportunity to control your money. What would stop them from taking what they want? I see things getting a lot worst over the next six months and that prohibits me from investing in the stock market.
I will have no part in the socialist movement. Obama has spent over $900,000 with attorneys to hide his school records and birth certificate. Six grand juries have filed charges of treason and fraud against him and two have found him guilty. Don’t you wonder why the media ignores this?
I’m off track here. But many things prevent me from investing the biggest is my lack of knowledge.
Best whishes
Jim Billings
You can forget about blaming G.M., Chrysler, the Government, Bush or Obama
for the state of the union.
If you really want to know who succeeded in the venture, get a copy of the T.V.
aired film, “Oil Storm”. Join the knowledgeable “In Crowd” and watch three
third world nations grow, build and prosper with our money.
I have used GLD to good advantage for several years now but recently I am concerned that with $32B supposedly in the fund now there is great motivation for fraud(think Madoff). This is the second or third largest consentration of gold in the world. Also, there a lot of hedge funds in there now and for whatever reason, one had to sell a large position quickly, the price could fall far and fast. The tax treatment is not great. Therefor, I have started to use options where I know my exposure. Could you comment? Otherwise I am a patient investor and will look for the next trend which I think will be back to test previous lows.
Normally I would like to trade to make quick gains but in a portfolio I don’t watch like a hawk I want it conservative. I have a separate day-trading account for the fast ones but the MCP account I set aside $10K. I don’t want Claus to make fast and rash decisions especially if he has to lag behind 2 days to carefully pick stocks we can INVEST in, not day trade. For the day trades and options I have another tech do that with me. The MCP is something I fall back on in case I mess up with the short term trades. Plus I have some physical gold.
People came to America because of it’s principles that are slowly being peeled away by the Feds. We should be nmore educated about this and take back our country. I feel there was more freedom back 20 years ago than there is now.
Mr Weiss,
I bought 100 shares of AIG @ 46cents and sold them @ $1.81…interesting???
Right now, I am itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits in an effort to recoup losses sustained during the past two years. I sold most of my holdings, some at a loss which was O.K. while prices continued to decline. But now, those losses would be gains, had I held on. Trouble is, I don’t know which way to turn. Since your opinions and explanations resonate with me that this is a bear market rally, I am hesitant to jump in on my own even for a short term.
Thanks for everything, Dr. Weiss. Being in short-term treasuries for the past year has really saved my family’s bacon.
Dr. Weiss, I am convinced that the US market is in for a slide below 5500 in the coming quarter. I am also convinced that I must earn good returns during these volatile times if I am to keep ahead of the dollar’s dissolution. The value of my savings will decrease precipitously if I try to hide in treasuries (any treasuries!) as the dollar disintegrates– I need sharp advice to maintain and augment the value of my savings. I can’t pay thousands of dollars to join something like your excellent Contrarian fund; that’s way out of my league. But I could really get excited about solid technical advice on getting started with world currency options. Not a mouth-watering description of how great they are, thanks, but a straightforward how-to on evaluating and making money using these exciting new intruments. How about it?
Your Devoted Fan,
alan
Martin:
I do not agree that this is a “Tale of Two Investors”. We are all a bit of both investor types, as we want to play the market when appropriate and ride the 2-6 month waves, while also investing in the longer term.
It certainly appears from all the facts you have published that the fundamentals of the economy point to a disaster in the making. However, there is also the question of TIMING. For example, you pointed out several years ago the disaster brewing at GM, but in the meantime there were lots of good investments to make and lots of opportunity before the eventual bankrupcy of GM … your predictions took YEARS to come true … sure, you were right, but the bear warning were pretty early in the game and there was lots of growth opportunities in the meantime.
The analogy applies to this market as well. Sure, the fundamentals point to a problem, but if the Dow rises to 10,500 thru August then we will have missed a wonderful opportunity in specific sectors to invest. Further, we will continue to lose money in bear market rhetoric when the entire wave is moving in the opposite direction. If the US Gov’t decides that they are going to float the banks and manipulate the market, and do so until they are bankrupt, why bet against them ? Why not ride the wave up in specific sectors (as is being recommended by Uncommon Wisdom), then wait for the market to turn before investing as a bear ?
I do not question your fundamental premise about there being a problem in the making, but if this market runs another 20% up before crashing, we will have missed the opportunity to cash in on profits that could have been made since March, 2009.
For example, it is clear that the bear market investments in the Contrarian Portfolio were made too early, while the call on gold & gold mining shares were right on point.
Martin; Generally I’m waiting with the 1st group. I’m underwater with reverse ETFs. I’ve added to my mining and precious metals funds. the bulk portfolio is in Ts. I have taken no significant losses in this meltdown due to going sideline a couple years ago at your behest. Thx, JR
I am both types of investor…..with 3 kids in college as a single mom, I need to make short term and long term gains…I am OK with the added risks…just give me a way to make money regardless whether the market is bullish or bearish. I live in rural Mexico now….so I very much appreciate your email services, really the only way to reach me.
Muchas Gracias to Martin and his Team…keep up the good work.
Martin,
You asked “what type” of investor I am, well I am long-term! I am 65 now and I may not have all that long to invest, but I am still long-term. I believe that many investors don’t understand that there are so many variables in this market today that weren’t there in the past 50 years, that short-term investing is extremely unpredictable and extremely riskey in this present situation! I am a retired history teacher and my history background tells me that “every” nation in history that has tried to borrow its way out of debt has failed!
Thanks,
Lloyd Liby
Martin:
I enjoy your analysis and have read it long enough to know you have a high degree of accuracy. I do not understand certain situations that exist now:
1. Commercial RE is supposed to be going in the tank, the residential RE market is still in the tank,yet the SRS is at a low in the ETF? What gives?
2. Oil inventories are huge, prices of oil are going up, and the consumer is tapped out and driving less, and yet gas prices are going up. The economy is in the tank, yet oil prices are going up, what gives?
3. What is the inverse ETF for Treasuries?
Thank you,
Chuck
Hello,Little by little now,I am pulling out of the market,never to return.
I lost all faith in wall street,Goverment Motors will suck us dry not just to build
cars but also to support the union.Some of those who pass are laws can not take care
of themself
Hi Martin,
Thanks for you good information. I have 1/3 of my liquid assets in I-Bonds. My house is free and clear.
Until now the bonds have paid high interest, but at the last auction they will make 0% for at least the next 6 months. Should I sell these bonds och still hang in there. The bonds are tax deferred until I sell them. I am retired.
Tanking you in advance.
Evy B.
I am with ROWLAND. The long term is now looking mighty short at 86. You youngsters will do well to pay attention and be patient and be creative. Martin Weise for President !
Hi Martin,
Obviously you must pay attention to the longer term trends, which, alas, are quite troublesome.
One can play the contra-trends but you must pay a lot of attention and have a trader’s mentality.
Now, Martin, close your eyes and go back in time. —-way back —way way back. I see you standing with your dad, J.Irving Weiss, as my partner and I bought your publication “Money and Credit” out of bankruptcy. I rememeber telling my partner Bob Weingarten who was our publisher(Iwas the editor) that
even though your dad was superbearish, I was bearish and I could write the letter. It was 1971 and72-4 lay ahead. We built the letter and it was very sucessful. Then in 1973, we bought a ridiculous magazine, “Financial World” which I edited and made it an important and very succesful investment magazine.
While this was going on I sort of subcontracted out Money and Credit and the chap who was writing it did not really understand and, alas, we closed it a few years later. FW was a great success and we had other magazines like Saturday Review and more. I won’t bore you with more except to say you are doing an outstanding job with Money and Markets, Safe Money Report, Uncommon Wisdom etc.
Congratulations. I wish you were wrong about everything, but I know better than most that you are not.
Al Kingon
Well I am definitely not like GM and “put your eggs in all one basket”–big gas guzzling cars. My type of investing is like Toyota–some in medium risks some in small risks. And because of my age “40 something”,a small amount in gas hog investments.
Martin,
Well of course I want both! But realistically I am on the other hand,
eager to make money RIGHT NOW, but not aggressive in the rallies or disciplined enough for the long trends. I wait to see what happens far to often, then believe I missed any significant moves. Today I want to short oil (DUG) but have done nothing.
It’s a learning process for me, for sure.
Being a subscriber for about a year now I have benefited from your advive and will continue too.
Thanks
Randy Stenglein
Hi Martin,
First, I would like to thank you for the service you offer those of us who do not have the knowledge to make smart investing decisions. I think you are one of the sane voices out there and that is the reason I got into your million dollar portfolio.
With respect to your question, I have tended to be both a consertative and agrresive investor based on following the trend of the market. I attempt to asses the risk reward the market presents and make my decisions in terms of my own personal situation with respect to how much I can afford to lose. I am retired and tend to look for low risk,high reward opportunities. For example, in August 2007 the market was approaching 2000 highs. My gut told me that upward potential was limited and there were already rumblings in the financial sector. As a result, I viewed the future potential reward as not being worth the downside risk and went 100% to cash and avoided most of the pain. I looked at the market on March 9th, and was set to move into the market big time, but did not pull the trigger. My biggest concern was that the market was being manipulated by the financial sector and possibly the government because I saw nothing that justified a move upward. I missed that opportunity but I am sure there will be more. The best thing to have in these times is patience and trusted support.
I believe I got that support with you folks and this is the reason I subcribed to your Contrarian Portfolio. Events are occuring with lightning speed today and there are many, many land mines out there. I need all the input and advice I can get. Keep up the good work and get on Glen Beck more often to educate the American public.
I would like to believe I think in terms of the really big picture. Therein, nations come and nations go. If we are going to be less than “the” world leader, I would like to think we can fade away as gracefully as England did when it relinquished most of the world to others. They also were the ‘capitalists’ of their time but that title moves to the most accomodating business environment. Hence, Thomas Jefferson’s quote: “The merchant has no country”.
Our critical moment occurred during the eight years of George Bush and our greedy investors and unconcerned or dumb representives blew it big time. Now, Obama can claim to be the savior and walk us into the never-never land of socialism to be a second rate country.
Our moral fabric disappears each time a greedy trader takes advantage and each time a bought-politician changes the rules to fit the crooks – in the name of regulation. There is no shame in Wall Street or Washington, as in some Asian countries, or the food lines would be full of those whose conscious prevailed.
Some call it capitalism. However, capitalism without honesty and morality is nothing more than a den of thieves. Play the market and loose your assets daily or hold and loose it each ten years; nothing is long-term anymore. Better yet, get out of the markets because they are all fixed like gambling tables. They get the profit and you get the losses.
I am 78 and have been observing the market for about 50 years. I have seen the up and down cycles in the Dow about every ten to twenty years and I know that with each down cycle all the trusting novices are goint ot have to start over with their life.
I long for the day when a share of stock in a company is an investment in assets and in its future, not another chance for the insiders, traders, and crooks to take away your future.
You know, like the banks. They should be a utility instead of a surfeit of well-paid thieves with Washington’s permission to nickel and dime you to death. DO NOT PUT ANY MONEY WITH BANKS IN ANY FORM. In fact, we should all find ways to invest which avoid current financial institutions under the current regulations.
Thanks Martin for letting me post my observations about our investment environment.
robert l
Dear Dr. Weiss:
I read in Nick Guarino!s, Wall Street insiders that gold is going to
CRASH!
I have Nova Gold Resources,Inc and Franco Nevada Corp. Today I saw both of my stocks start DOWN! Even before this they were going up quite nicely.
Would you please comment on Gold.
I did not sell my Gold stocks. Miss Matzek
The mid term is bear inverse ETF but the trend is your friend, The gains on my short term (longs) helps balance short term losses, just keeping whole while waiting to run the table on shorts. You keep the defense honest with short runs even though your scoring comes from the pass. Can not survive without riding both ponies at the same time.
I THINK BEST WAY TO RIDEOUT IS ACCUMULATE BOTH TYPES OF ETF. INVEREVERSE AND PRO.WITH THE BIAS TOWARDS INVERSE ETFS.IF ONE DOESNOT WANT PRO ETF’S OF COMMON EQUITIES ONE CAN GO FOR HIGH DIVIDEND PAYING STOCK AND ETFS, CLOSE END FIND ETC AND GUARD DOWNSIDE WITH INVERSE ETFS
The majority of my portfolio is in savings. The interest rate isn’t great but at least its a safe place to ride out the storm until the rates go up. The rest of my money is in gold and stocks that pay out a quarterly dividend – works out to be a 3% return. In all, my portfolio has grown 10% in six months! Much is due to the advice given in your M&M column.
So I guess to answer your question, I’m content with riding out what’s happening in our economy now while still managing to eek out a profit.
Thanks
I’ve just started investing (2005), and I think I have a good handle on things, as my father was a blue collar guy who grew up during the depression (1925-1991). I was brought up with a respect for living within your means and save for a rainy day. I have 12 to 15 years to build up enough funds to “retire” on my own terms. I look mostly long term, with dividend paying stocks, but I would like to do some short term “playing” to learn to grow my funds once I stop working for a living.
While I give you lots of credit for identifying the dangers of the housing bubble and financial instruments used to finance this craziness, I was disappointed you sat on the sidelines with reverse ETF’s while the market climbed from 6500 to 8700. You may be right in the long run, but large moves like we had should be traded and identified by your service.
I lost lots of money during 2007-2008. I should have listen to Martin early. Right now, market is very confusing. But, I think Dow may go all the way to 10,000 before pulling back. I am long on gold, oil and China. But, I do put Stop order, that way I am always protecting my profit. If market changes direction, I would be using inverse ETF, but right now, it is not time to buy inverse ETF yet.
I desire the aggressive approach
Martin,
My son sent me one of your newsletters and I became hooked on your advice. I took my money out of the market just in time last year to minimize my losses. I did keep my annunities in place so to have income later. I have learned once again, to live with a little less on the luxury side of things and enjoy my family, home and gardens for pleasure.
I would like to have the opportunity to do both. I am a member of your Contrarian service and have allocated a portion of my investments accordingly. The bulk of my “keep safe” money is in short term treasuries and equivalents. I would, however, also like to take advantage of short term market opportunities with my “risk” money as those opportunities present themselves. Perhaps you could offer your current subscribers a “speculative” option when you see the opportunities arise. Thank you for your advice and guidance in these times.
Why does one have to be one or the other? I one should diversify by having some investments being long, or longer term and another part short er term trading the short
term opportunities that are there,
I have played the market in almost every way possible(shorts,puts, commodities,etc.). I have made no money in any of these endevors. I played the bull side in the late 80’s early 90’s and made quite a lot of money( over 1M) because I bought stock in a co. called ROTECH. It was started by a friend of mine from college who invited me to invest in his co. from thestart. It took 12 years to reach my goal but it was well worth the wait. I personally believe (patience is a virtue) if you are using common sense and do you homework and you must be FLEXIBLE, willing to admit to yourself you must sell although you might be losing on a stock . One must do their due deligence and make their own decesions not be a “herd animal”. Thats why my money is on the contrarian fund at this time, I feel that the “BEAR is on the loose”. Good luck to us all, we are going to need it.
i think we are setting up our economy to be back in this soup again in 5-6yrs or sooner…banks are making low interest loans for long terms(25-30 yrs) when inflation hits in a the near furture interest will climb to high single and double digit rates…the banks will be holding mortgages in low single digit rates and will be trying to get monies that will cost them high single and double digit rates….it will be a replay of the late 70’s and early 80’s when we saw a lot of our s & l’s go broke..we are using a band-aid approach.. it won’t work!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I gave up on by and hold investing especially with mutual funds after so many big time touts said stay the course. I realize that to make money you need to trade aggressively and that is what I prefer to do. I am not that gloomy about the state of our economy and I am deeply disturbed by the massive short selling that occurred last year as it created a tsunami of loss for most average folks, which I am. I hope short selling is more regulated and difficult to prevent future panics and run offs that feed on each other. So i am looking for the next opportunity wehether it be a ris in commodities, a downturn in gold or whatever. I can’t wait for the 3,5, or ten year “horizon.”
Dear Martin,
I would like to have you respond to me as to why you only recomend 5 or 10% of our portfolio be in presious metals when we are absolutely desecrating our dollar. Also, my thinking is that it is better to be in silver than gold. Historically the ratio was about 16 to 1 and now it is almost 70 to 1.
Many thanks for your reply,
Don Blettner
I use contrarian portfolio for 40%, Crisis Opportunity Trader for 30%, Safe Money for 20%, and Dividend SuperStar for 10% of my total portfolio.
Martin, You asked what kind of investor am I? I,m an investor, not a trader. I like to take the long view when I,m on the right side of an investment. Traders are more like gamblers.
I’m the aggressive type, trying to catch short term profits despite the overall bear trend.
i have been buying and selling quickly-sometimes too soon in this ugly market.
i am down 20% overall but am reluctant to take the heavy losses if i sell. i agree that the u.s.a.will be in deep trouble for years ahead,and would sell if i could come close to even.
i am a senior citizen and believe i have a different time-frame from your investors
i asthink there is only one place to invst currently – that is in the silver etf,slv.it is two- pronged; first as a prcious metal and a hedge against inflation, along with the continuing decline of the dollar; second as an industrial metal with many much-needed applications such as advanced electronics and solar panels.
My preference is to invest based on my perception of the dominant trend:
i.e.: precious metals and inverse ETFs. I also participate in the contrarian portfolio.
Mr. Weiss,
My father, like yours, grew up during the depression. Although he wasn’t an investor, nor an economist, the lessons he learned from that experience and taught me from an early age were very similar to those you acquired from your Dad. I am interested in longer term investments and more importantly in protecting my assets. My grandfather’s family survived the depression, while wealthier men on Wall Street were jumping out windows to commit suicide. I learned the value of being a survivor.
It is interesting that you should bring this up today. I am confident that when everything ‘washes out,’ I’ll be in as good a position as I was before the current financial climate started. I had written to a friend that I could see no economic justification for this huge rally, and I suspected that it is being manipulated by government and financial ‘insiders’ for their benefit. I also believe that whenever this rally ends, it will do it so suddenly – another ‘crash’ – that ordinary investors will not be able to get out without huge losses. Then, I read this article from last Friday: http://www.baltimorechronicle.com/2009/052909Lendman.shtml
I decided to try to study these manipulations of the stock market, and economy in general, to try to pick up on the ‘insiders’ (plunge protection team, etc.) treatment of it to be able to capitalize on it. No matter how smart, or even cunning the ‘insiders’ are, they still are human and subject to habitual behavior. So, I am trying now to pick up on how habitual the behavior is for the purpose of being able to trade a portion (a portion I can afford to lose, if I’m wrong) of my portfolio to take advantage of it.
Hi Martin,
I got 25 % of my portfolio in USD cash (everytime the markets go down here in Turkey, the USD exchange rate rises quickly), 30 % is invested in gold, about 15 % in my country’s treasury bonds, and 30 % invested in a companys stocks, which deals with gold.
These markets will pull back big time, but I guess after they paralyze the feelings of the small investors and make them jump into the stock market with their money and then they will sell it all and get out of the stock market.
I’d like to thank you from Turkey for all the efforts you put in warning everybody about what is going to happen as the politicians are not telling the truth. We’d like to welcome you here in Istanbul one day.
i WANT TO FOLLOW WHICHEVER APPRAOCH YOU BELIEVE IS THE BEST ONE TO AVOID RISK AND MAKE THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY. OR PERHAPS THOSE ARE CONTRADICTORY?
Hello Martin,
What kind of an investor am I? I am a single retired woman with a modest pension
(I didn’t inherit money or assets). I have two well educated grown children, and seven grandchildren.
Statistically, I will live at least 14 – 18 more years, therefore, I am a conservative who lost $30,000 in the mkrt, last Oct. and some $80,000 in depreciated real estate (I put $128,000 down on a retirement home in 2006–talk about bad timing). However, I do have a quality, long term health policy and medicare coverage.
I only have $100,000 left to help supplement my retirement. I found your book educational, easy to read and well written and I’m considering a $5,000-$10,000 allocation to Inverse Currency ETFs as they will be easy to follow, and $5,000 in gold (waiting for a correction). Short term investment strategies would be very helpful in helping me build a larger cushion.
While I cannot afford to do nothing, I’m concerned about what O’Boma will do. He’s moving too fast — a purposeful tactic to divert the country’s attention from realizing his real agenda.
That said, I am going to reread your book and gleam from it what I can use. (I gave up on reading Stent’s book — too technical in the beginning). As a former public information officer, I congratulate you. You have certainly provided some options to mutual funds. Thank you.
P.S. I’m also considering selling my home before it depreciates further. Keep up the good work, we all need your guidance.
i see an ambivalance similar to that of the late 1970’s. gold or cash? many bet on gold for the long term, but when it corrected they had inadequate cash to profit from the lower price and of course had bills to pay. others stayed in cash and survived on the historic high interest payments. but the 21st century has not offered high yeilds on cash. mike larson points out the dangers of long bonds. what are we to do?
t.parker,m.d.
AFTER RETIREMENT. I ROLLED ALL OF MY 401K FUNDS INTO AN TRADITIONAL IRA FUND OF 100% US TREASURY BILLS MONEY MARKET FUND AND BROTHER, AM I EVER GLAD I DID. I WAS MAKING DECENT INTEREST OF SAME TILL LAST SEPTEMBER WHEN THE BOTTOM FELL OUT. NOW, I’M NOT MAKING ANY INTEREST TO SPEAK OF AT ALL, BUT, I’M NOT LOSING ANY EITHER. I’M AT PEACE AND CAN SLEEP AT NIGHT. I DO WISH THAT I HAD INVESTED IN YOUR MILLION DOLLAR CONTRARIAN PLAN, BUT I KEPT PROCRASTINATING. I WAS REALLY WANTING TO INVEST 1/4 OF THE MONEY MARKET FUND INTO PLAYING IN YOUR MILLION DOLLAR PLAN. GOD BLESS YOU AND YOURS, MARTIN. WE LOVE YOUR TRUTH AND YOUR INTEGRITY. KEEP ON KEEPING ON FOR US, PODNUH. WE DIG IT.
I’m on the aggressive side!
At 74 yrs old, I’m trying – and need to – increase the value of my IRA. I subscribe to 8 Investment Letters along with info from my Brokerage House and if several agree I usually buy the stock. If the majority see the Market declining for the next few months, I sell some stocks.
Most of my portfolio is in Gold & Silver and other “Commodity” stocks.
I keep about 40% of my portofolio in Cash and Treas EFTs.
Timing this market is a fools game when the government is at the short term controls. They can blow you out with a new announcement either way you are betting at any point in time. The only sensible thing to do is to pick your bet for where you believe the FUNDAMENTALS will ultimately bring the market and then TAKE PROFITS and get out while the getting is good.
I would like to have short term agressive approach to take advantage of the short term rally and take invole in inverse ETF if the market fall.
I’m a longterm-oriented investor who knows that it is necessary to monitor the dynamics of this complex adaptive system we call the market. I don’t want to change my investments frequently, but recognize I need to make changes more often than I would like given that, recently, the referee (the state) is coming into to play the game with us and change the rules of the game as we go along. This is long-term bearish as dirigiste control of the economy has never brought about robust economic growth nor growth in value of claims on the financial instruments. But the near-term and mid-term countertrend movements can cause motion sickness; and is doing so for many investors who have not fully appropriated the long-term results of the government dirigisme (definition here: http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/dirigisme).
I am a long term investor. I don’t like to gamble with my investments by following the breeze of the daily market. I am depending on your team’s experience to guide us through this storm. I would prefer to profit from the market following the dominate trends. This type of investing takes patience – but the overall profit gains should be very satisfying.
“You can’t time the market.” But inevitably you WILL time the market. You will
enter the market at an age at which you have investment capability, which is many
decades after the market opened. Market activity will probably continue long after
you check out. Most of the classic refrains and averages are meaningless. When
you are commencing your eighth decade, you begin to be philosophical about
mortality; and your time frame for modest sucess is NOT two or three decades -
perhaps not even one. Formulating a philosophy about acceptable risk level is extremely
difficult. This is more about psychology than it is about finance. “Macro” market
timing, sector rotation, “high yield” alternatives with moderate risk become interesting.
I prefer the short Trends.
I am in the gourp that wants to make money in the short term while playing the long trend down.
America will not survive. America looks different already.
Has it crossed anyone’s mind that the “leaders” of our country are
strategically making all of their moves purposefully to collapse the american economy and rob all of its citizens to create a new world currency – the amero (joining Mexico, Canada and the US). And in the process, taking away all of our wealth and our rights (constitution) – conveniently. It’s only a matter of time until the whole economy comes crumbling down and they come to the rescue! with their superman capes on (even though it was them who engineered the collapse in the first page) and say the only way out of this mess is to destroy the dollar and create a “new” currency, therefore getting rid of all of america’s debt.
I believe oil is going higher and the market as a whole is headed lower with commodities higher
Martin, I’ve always been a contrarian, both in life and in investing. That is sometimes not in ones best interest. The “trend can be your friend” after all. Since mid March perhaps it would have been good to have a limited amount of our portfolios in a long position. With the ability we have today to liquidate rapidly, maybe it would be worth the risk. But if you are not able to watch your portfolio closely then I always have in the back of my mind “better a month early than a day late”!
I m 81, remember depression of 30’s , don’have lot of money to invest but welcome suggestions in your book about Depression. I have put some money aside for cash but would now like to invest in ETF or Yreasury shrot term securities. Your firm handel or should I go local. My Bank is BB & T.
Thanks
Don
I am positioned waiting for the bear run south. I am heavly into inverse ETF’s, gold and silver. I own some physical gold and silver; would like more but the premiums are too high.
I do try to pick and chose to take an opportunity for what I deem a quick in and out but this represents a very small portion of my investment funds.
Approximately 40% of my funds are currently in cash
It is painful to watch the bull run but I believe the prudent approach is to take the pain.
I fear for my grandchildren and believe the USA is in a condition of self destruction. The Federalist Papers and the Constitution were trashed long ago by the ruling class in DC as allowed by The People. With Obama we are in a race to the bottom – will 1984 come after Atlas Shrugged? (A 31 year old bureaucrat running GM – give me a break!)
I pray God’s grace for all thinking Americans and best of success for investors sincerely interested in salvage of our country. Al in Wildwood
At my age of 69 I am in for the longer term trends you indicate plus gold. My concern is that I am in Canada and the Canadian dollar is going up versus the US dollar so I am investing in the equivalent in Canadian stocks where practical. In other words, if invested in US stocks or ETFs and the US dollar going down, we do not make as much. I am sure there are a lot of Canadian investors in your contrarion group so it would be good to have Canadian stocks or ETFs recommended too. here’s hoping for a profitable future sticking with your program.
Hello Martin:
Just frustrated that I stayed in Cash (US$) as my favourite emerging markets have rocketed 30% or so and the US$ dollar continues to sink. Not sure what to do ?
Philip Clarke……Brasil
I would like to see some gains now, and also position ourselves for future gains.
Well, Being retired early and having 2x as much $ as per Financial Planning says I will need? I am Conservative and just Holding on to my current Bonds for 09′..and per your Bond Experts, going from Treas. & GNMA’’s in 08′ to Short & Intermedidate Corp/EMD’s/ HYld Loan funds that worked fine for me during the past recovery period in 03′.. and as been advised by your team, to take out my Cost basis $ at some point and just leave the profits ride for awhile..( which I already have) …The rest is in Conservatvie Bal. funds..with about a 40/60 mix now. Of course, anytime I can make 10% on my bonds, I take it and call it a Good Yr..Chirstmass came early again this yr.. thanks to you guys, It was Treasuries last yr! Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.!
My preference is to be cognizant of the fundamentals, but trade with sentiment and technical analysis of price action.
If careful risk managment is employed the winners should exceed the losers and the swings can be captured.
Good short term analysis (week to month/ swing timeframe) would be an incredibly valuable addition to your service.
Your guidance w/r to banks and safe cash holding is most important and most appreciated of all.
Thank you!
I too am torn between jumping in or waiting it out, I regret not getting some of the gains back that I lost, the market just keeps going up for no reason, even on bad news, each day I wish I had never got out, at least I could have recouped some on my losses, if I get in now it may go down again and more loses is not acceptable, as retirement is getting near, so I am looking at 1 to 2 % interest while everyone else is making money it seems, the market went down on good news and up on bad, I’m totally confused and sick
Hindsight, off course, is always 20/20 and I thought we had further to fall in early March. Now, I see that trying to buy at the exact bottom is impossible and getting really good values that might fall a bit more is good enough. If I had to do it over, I would have taken a small long position below 7000 on the Dow and added more below 6000. That way I would have participated in this rally with at least a small investment. I am now in inverse ETF’s as you recommend and I believe long term interest rates are going to sink this bull run soon. Bottom line, I like to invest with the longer trend but also not totally dismiss the counter trend. That may be having your cake and eating it too!
Martin
I am BOTH. Have been exercising much patience and restraint, observing in awe as the dow climbs, building an ever higher house of cards.
While I am not generally given to conspiracy theories, I can see no other solution to the “feel good” news that keeps spurring on this injured bear. The pullers of strings are testing our shorts and apparently will keep pumping cash into failed business until we cut and run. How else does a market climb on consecutive days after the demise of one of its most important corporations?
Truly, this is no game for the squeamish! It requires iron will to remain steadfast.
best regards to a great American
Jim Boynton
P.S. a co-worker fwd’ me your warnings in Feb 07. I was divested from the market and into treasuries by that Aug. (dow 13,200) We even sold our expensive home and downsized by 35% which has also saved us a bunch. While we have not made a lot since then, we have lost ZERO and I have you to thank!
I learned patience and persistence long ago. As a million-dollar contrarion investor, I knew it would take time…patience and persistence. Long ago I found I had little money so I put it in short term treasuries and now live on it. I invested my very small portion with you because I believe that we are faced with depression and must save…if anyone does that these days of ‘buy what I want’. Gold coins I put by for 20 years, not many and they went up and down but each one is money, not paper.
Please try to please those who want instant gratification but I do know that patience and persistence and prayer work best. Keep those charts in front of you telling you best where we are and then tell us what we should do. Thank you.
Martin,
I appreciate your offer to invest with you but shy away from Wall Street. Unless one really is educated in the market and stays current with economic news it’s hard to compete with professional and institutional trading.
The direction the country is going is worrysome. No-one seems to be trying to reign in or educate our current president and his crowd.
What does seem to be happening, at the cost of our elderly and those who invested and planned for retirement, it appears government leaders are helping themselves and their associates to current and future public funds without restraint. It sort of makes you wonder whether they are indulging themselves now because they can and because the have a perspective that there will be no significant wealth remaining in the future to plunder.
If I were able to offload all my obligations , current and future to those who cant or won’t defend themselves, I would want to restrict 2nd amendment rights also.
Will America survive? I am appalled at the lack of vocal resonse right now.
ben graham described market timing as a losing approach to investment, which eventually does not work out well at all. On one hand, a “bear market rally” grossly inflates stock prices and is difficult to recognize until large gains are no longer likely, and on the other hand, the investor is exposed to precipitous and large losses.
So, I think it prudent to raise cash until true value can be seen in the markets.
I’m simi retired I don’t guess we ever retire. I worked at Texaco of which Shell bought out before I retired. Oil is all I know from the time it leaves the ground to when it hits the gas pump. Investing in oil has been pretty good. Reading your newsletter keeps me up on what the world is doing and what to invest in besides oil. I have 60% cash 20 % in oil stocks and the rest in gold and silver stocks also silver bars.
I want to make some money now – because I know many people are making money in this down-turn. It doesn’t need to be aggressive, but at least know that the money is on the plus side. This would be great.
75% inclined to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits.
25% in favor of trading this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend.
Martin, several other invesment newletters that I subscribe to are making money with their recommendations in this temporary bull market. Your Contrarian service should look for few select opportunities for quick profits in this otherwise bearish market. But I agree that the general direction of the market, at least over the next few years, will be bearish.
I am 75% inclined to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits.
I also favor trading 25% of my available funds more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend.
Being retired, my primary concern is and will continue to be wealth preservation. I took your advice back in Oct ‘07 and moved into Treasuries, where I still reside. However, I would take some risk to be able to gain profits during these bear market rallies. The current 30%+ run-up is a prime example of a missed opportunity. It would be nice to participate.
Longer Term. I work for a living and can’t change my retirement account every few days to trade the market. I need tirades that last at least several months at a time. If we don’t get a hold of the nobama and the politicians, we will be a loser, socialist, sh…hoie nation like Venezuela. We are halfway there now. Bill
I accidentally hit a wrong key in my previous uncompleted comment. I follow your advise closely, specially the choices you make for buy and sell through my subscription of THE MILLION DOLLAR CONTRARIAN PORTFOLIO and my subscription of CRISIS OPPRTUNITY ETF TRADER.
On my own it is difficult to stay on the sidelines when there is a bull market going on, any kind of a bull market. With ETF’s only I buy the LONGS and the SHORTS depending what the situation is at the moment.
With ETF on-line trading at $8.00 a trade I buy and sell quite often.
I keep myself balanced a bit, if I am not sure of a situation I may have some LONG and SHORT until I am more certain. Right now for example I have FXI CHINA LONG and also FXP CHINA SHORT. I also may keep a SHORT or LONG if they have earned a large amount and try to figure out what next to do, perphas the next day.
Additionally, I also look at Bloomberg and BRIEFING.COM. I particularlly watch before 9:30 AM FUTURES of Breifing.com. If it seems to be more or less tame I would more or less hold my positions but be ready to move on something if it becomes larger.
if the FUTURES prior to 9:30 AM are really huge one way or the other, I normally jump in with both feet buying or selling the necessary ETF’s.
I do well with these routines most of the time, and when I think it is not doing well then I would be buying or selling to try to equalize somewhat.
I have done reasonably well, but you have to be at the computer the whole trading day to see how things are developing in case some corrective action may be necessary.
The two publications I subscribe to are excellent and I am watching all your WEBCASTS.
My house is paid for fully, free and clear in this department and I have no debts what so ever. I am 81 years old, I have been retired 20 years now. I have done well in the market on my own, but with what is going on now was beginning to get very difficult, but thanks to your publications and your help I am picking things up now. And I thank you a lot for it all.
Lou Garcia
Alll the Gloom and Doom about America is so Funny.. Why? That’s the beauty of our Country.. We have New elections every 4 yrs and We can just put someone else incharge and reverse things in a Heart beat..We recovered after the terrible Carter Yrs and 13% Treasuries and recovered after every problem we have faced.. Me thinks more and more are just G & D since they want to blame everyone else for their own failures..or not being able to pay attention to what your Book has said and weekly articles and stay Flexible with what $ they do have.. and are upset that they can get “something for nothing” from the Gov’t like Free Health Care. My Home bought in 03′ is only worth today what I paid for it then… And that’s OK with me..It’s my retirement home and I’m not going anywhere and Owning Any Home Should be a Long term Investment of at least 10 -20+yrs.. if not, you should have rented..
and trying to make Wall Street make up for one’s inability to Make & Save Enough is a Fool’s game… Just like going to Vegas.. ” Plan on and don’t expect to make more than 7% a yr on your savings and save enough depending on that, no more” If you can’t save enough for that? Then you just get a better job or a 2nd job… , I was able to just work an extra 10 hrs a week on my job for over 30 yrs..to make up for my shortcommngs of not getting a Better Education and thus a Better Paying job..
HELLO MARTIN AND YOUR OTHER INSIGHTFUL ANALYST, THANK YOU FOR RECONFIRMING THE STATE OF THIS RECESSION AND THE CONSTANT SWINGS OF BAD POLITICS ON IT’S RECOVERY. I AM ON TEAM “WEISS” BUT IT FEELS LIKE YOU ARE UP AGAINST THE “FED” AND MANIPULATION OF ALL MARKETS! (DAVID AND GOLITH) YOUR INFO IS ALWAYS REALITY BUT I DO NOT THINK THE OTHER TEAM PLAYS WITH THE TRUTH, MUCH LESS REALITY! WHEN I SEE THE GIANT RETREATING… ‘YOU’ WILL BE MY FIRST CALL! I WISH I HAD YOUR FEARLESSNESS AND I HOPE YOU KICK B—. “LUCK FALLS ON THE SIDE OF THE PREPARED” TERRI
Thankfully, I jumped into your generous offers and bought into seven years of the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. I believe it has the potential to emerge as one of the best things you have ever offered. So, I’m looking ahead long-term. The current ’suckers rally’ is about to come to a screeching halt.
I have different pockets for different kinds of investments. $100k is invested according
to Claus and hopefully we will get to see some spectacular results in the long run from
his suggestions. But, I also have residual funds that would be fun to try and grow on short upswings. My biggest problem has been “knowing when sell” during those brief
upswings?
in 87 i asked myself where do we stand, where are we coming from and where are we going ? James Davidson in strategic investment was taking about the Nicolai Kondratiev cycle . In duration about 54 to 60 years. With people now living longer add a few more years .M-2 to the monterey a major contraction did start in 1987.
Money is made on logic and as much can be made on stupidity.
Since the mid 90″ I had one solid ear to the doom and glom crowd.
… Martin Weiss ,Marc Faber ,James Davidson ,Mr Deflection G.Shilling and other horsemen of the Apocalypse.
The other day I saw Maria Bartiromo in an interview with major C.E.O.’
Some got it ,J.Welsh still thinks middle class america can be B S’d,guy’ like him are
geniuses.
I don’t have a hemline theory ,but I could the beginning
I’m retired, so have to limit how much risk I take. But I seem to be in the middle as to what kind of investor. Even in retirement, I’m looking at least 10 years ahead, so am interested in picking up (on downturns) good long-term equities that will pay good dividend income. If I decide to keep some dividend paying equities, I sometimes hedge against downside risk with covered calls. Also, to limit risk, I’m only buying equities in companies that have little or no debt. 85% of my money is in short-term treasuries, waiting for better buying opportunities. Meanwhile, I’m short on some companies that I think will do poorly and have heavy debt loads. Also, I’m always interested in selected ETFs, including the inverse ones.
I’m pretty much on the sidelines, with some plays usually in the Precious Metals Stocks.
Finding enough volatility for Option plays seems tough though. Buy long term options, but usually in/out within 3 weeks. Often your articles are too general to be of any help, and seem to only be inducements to buy some other service.
WITH 60% IN OIL / NAT GAS / FOOD / TIMBER / FERTILIZER / HYDRO POWER, CANADIAN TRUSTS, 5% GOLD / SILVER, [EFT], 15% USA TR. / LLPs ETC. 10% SPREAD CHINA / BRAZIL,TWO INDIVIDUAL LONG STOCKS, BP, SWZ, GROWTH REASONABLE DIVIDENDS, BALANCE USD CASH FOR ANY QUICK SELL / RE BUY FOR ANY STOCK THAT EXCEEDS 10% GAIN / RAPID DROP. WE FAVOR CANADA FOR MANY SOLID REASONS ALREADY KNOWN TO ALL INFORMED INVESTORS, THE ITEM THAT INCREASES THE BUTTERFAT TO+++ IS MONTHLY DISTRIBUTIONS OF DIVIDENDS. WE [MY DAUGHTER AND I] WILL RISK 1/2 % PORTFOLIO ON A “RAINBOW STOCK”, DEFINITION, NO HARD SELL ABLE ASSET, NOT NECESSARY TO LIFE, OUR CHOICE, YLO-UN.TO , PAYS AT PRESENT 20% DIV. MONTHLY. NOW TO STRESS “HUMBLE”, AND STATE AN UNUSUAL MARKET CONDITION, MY DAUGHTER, [17, TRADING SOME 5 YEARS], HAS, FROM OCT. 28, 08, TO DATE, GENERATED EXCESS OF 100% GAINS, ADEQUATE TO CARRY HER THROUGH 6 YEARS OF COLLEGE, [EARLY HIGH SCHOOL GRAD], PLANS, BAYLOR U., LAW, PRE. MED., AFROTC , FINAL JAG MILITARY LAW SCHOOL. AMERICA WILL APPROACH THIRD WORLD STATUS, SHE WILL CHANGE, AS AN OBESE PERSON, FORCED TO REASSESS LIFE, LOSE THE WEIGHT OF TOYS FRIVOLOUS DESIRES, ARROGANCE, IF SHE DOES NOT SUFFER A CARDIAC ARREST, [WAR, MORE WAR, WASTE], SHE WILL EMERGE STRONGER, READY TO RISE TO GREAT HEIGHTS AND REPEAT THE SAME MISTAKES AGAIN.
I have followed much of your advice and all of your writings for many years now and tend to be conservative and have beaten the broader market substantially because of it. That being said, I have gladly sold most stocks except a lot of gold and silver stocks (including many small Canadian miners) and certain inverse ETF’s and am primarily in US Treasury M/M funds as you suggest, but the $11 interest I earned last month on $500,000 is killing me when the market is surging. It is great to be safe and sleep well at night, but the market moves both ways, even if the current rally is unrealistic and pumped by gov’t interference and a hyper false media blitz, if not pure manilpulation. By only staying in the bear camp forever and never changing it is very costly to your followers even if it is a great risk aversion strategy. For example the inverse ETF’s you reco’d months ago were up thousands, but in still holding them you are now down thousands. It may balance out and be safe in the long run, but certainy not as profitable as it could be.
I tend to agree with you that the best way to profit in todays economic environment is through the inverse ETF’s. I do believe the market is going to take a drastic downturn with the GM/Chrysler bankrupcy and their huge supply industries.
Thank you, Sir, and to all your co-workers, especially Larry E., for the best analysis and recommendations there is today, to obtain.
My personal view is simple: No personal debt what-so-ever of any kind, own your home, your car and everything needed for everyday life, rent the extras, you only really use once in a while.
Investing with the longest perspective possible, minimum 5 years, preferrably 10: natural resources, including prescious metals, gold first and formost, and stay liquid for the remainder, diverify when it comes to the US $.
Avoid fast money and quick fixes, always.
Stay well informed and give yourself new inputs of all possible kinds.
I am following Claus’ suggestions, sometimes later rather than sooner, to get a better price. I also research suggestions from your Uncommon Wisdom team, particularly Tony and Sean, and have traded some at profit along with other picks suggested by Morningstar. I also have some investments that have gone down and not rebounded enough for me to unload them, but I watch for the opportunity to make a little on these while cleaning my portfolio, as advised by Claus.
Chaloke from Bangkok
I am both of the choices with 2 options.
My first option for the long term investment is 25% investment in agriculture land. The land yields more than the interest I have to pay to the bank if I borrow their money. The real profit comes from the land price appreciation over time. My second choice for the long term investment is 25% investment in property. The rental income now is a lot more than the interest plus extra profit from the property price appreciation.
My short term investment first option is 25% investment in physical gold. I bought gold coins, e.g., the Krugerrands. The second option is 25% investment spread into Stocks, ETFs, Futures and Options. I take a big risk in this last 25% using my own mechanical trading system with the 2% rules strictly adhered to each decision.
I notice you have been bearish on Stock market. I am too, but on the longer term basis. My short term view was different from yours. Take S&P 500 for example. Motive wave 1 started in 1950, peaked in 1972 with 593% gain and finished wave 2 at 48% correction. Wave 3 peaked in 2000 with a huge 2,258% gain and finished wave 4 at 46% correction. Wave 5 peaked in 2007 with a meagre 87% gain and finished corrective wave A at, again, 48% and now going up to form the wave B which could be at the Fibonacci 38.2% at around 1075. So, when you recommended selling into the bear market rallies, I bought into each bull market corrections since the first buy signal in March 2009.
I believe one should arrange their investment portfolio according to one’s need and lifestyle. There is no one choice whether you can be a short term or a long term trader. Investor will have to grasp the profit on all time scales.
I follow Claus’ heads up emails and buy some of Tony and Sean’s ideas for turning a quick profit.
I have enough saved to guarantee my retirement, and my kids college.
So …
1) I don’t want to lose it by placing big bets on the direction of the market.
I do believe long term the S&P will hit an inflation adjusted 550 in the next 10 years.
However if inflation hits 10% per year for a decade, then the nominal value of 550 will be more like 1200.
2) I am mindful that inflation can reduce the value of my holdings, so I need an inflation hedge.
3) I am willing to place small hedged bets on the medium term direction of the market in order to generate resonable inflation adusted returns. These include buying low, selling high and using trailing stops, reverse ETF’s in small amounts, writing covered calls, watching price and volume momentum etc. As long as I can generate a 2 – 3% real return on my money I will be fine. I am buying contrarian investments of gold, and silver. Buying EFA instead of SPY to hedge for a dollar collapse. I have lowered the durataion of my bond holdings to under 1 year. I believe peak oil-minerals is drawing near buying oil, and minerals on the dips.
4) I believe for the next 10 years buy and hold of U.S. stocks will be a losing proposition. Much of the 80’s and 90’s bull markets was a result of the exploding credit. That cycle has ended.
It is simple-If the money system in place is debt in the form of credit (not physical notes like the Zimbawa type we end up with deflation overall except that in some periods we could have very short term hyperinflation if the credit/debt money is disposed of faster than the falling credit money supply hitting the real economy.
My experience has been that if you are not patient you are buying/selling to quickly. I owned PKD 3 month’s ago. It was $1.50. But then the market moved so quickly that there where other ways to make money much quicker, with Inverse ETF’s. So I sold PKD and bought FAZ. The rest is history. FAZ went from 80 to 5 and PKD went from 1.50 to 5 !! If I only would have been patient !! I would have tripple my money with PKD. Now it might be the time to get into FAZ again. However this money printing business seems to change the rules of the game. I think the fundamentals are definitly bearisch, however if they keep printing money stocks seem to go up no matter what.
I would like 5 months to 9 months on profit turning.
martin i believe that afew selective commody plays make sence in modest amounts, for instance some energy plays really reflect shortages in oil and uranium which should make them less sustible to market swings. inaddition some commody plays seem to reflect oncomming dollar weakness and again may be somewhat nontied to stock market whims. finally the bulk of core funds will wait for a real market foor or near floor.
Its very tempting to try to make a profit with the market heading up lately. Nothing
has changed though and the long term looks bad. I used to read fiancial magazines
but could never really make money following their advice. When I first started reading
your commentary I thought u were way off but u are the only one I would trust now.
I think a person should be patient and profit on the market comiing back down. I am retired and have my money in a state deferred comp. account so I am limited to what
I can do but if I could I would have gotton in your bear market fund. I am a small time investor that cant afford to lose and enjoy what knowledge I can get from your money and markets e-mail. I think your right on the money.
RB
There are two ways to make (or loose) money: 1) If the market goes up: Don’t ask any questions , get on board and go for a ride. 2) Try to predict the longer term trend and patiently wait for it to materialize.
Each method has it’s advantages and disadvantages. You have to be a bit of a hot head to go with method 1), always on the trigger, ready to make a move: In, out, in, out…..and be right more than 50% of the time. For that, you may get instant gratification, and if you’re good, you may get very rich.
Method 2 seems better suited for the contemplative type of investor. You are less likely to get whip-lashed in the market. However, the danger is that you may be wrong for a long time, waiting for reality to adjust to your view of the world. You can loose a lot of money by being stubborn in your views. Once you realize that things will not pan out the way you dreamed them up, it may be too late and your wealth may largely be gone.
Hi Martin:
I am
A) content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that you’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
Generally I appreciate your service and your work. Thank you.
Is it possible to opt out of the heavy promotion cycle on your products?
I enjoy the monthly subscription and the updates from your other contributing authors
but it seems like you send too many promotional e-mails that are just repetition and clutter.
That’s my suggestion.
there in no doubt that the market is being manipulated be the government and the bank as as well of course by the fiffernt mutual fulnds so the can make money and the ;government given half true news every month , , how ils it possible the unemployment is getting worse , yhe income is going up , people are saving more and the consumer index going up, besides there arae still many millions of houses for sell in thle market and the constucction is goin up [also fun ja ja ja )also is funny the ;confidence index is getting better, or people are sore og ignorant , or tey ara cooking the books , I agree with you on the anlysis of the economy. Ramon
Martin and Team
I would like to move forward with some aggressive investments,
as I beleive you feel there are profits for the near future, but of
course realize there are no guarentees. Love options where all you
can lose are what you invest.
I am running with both options. I have a select few blue chip high dividend yielding stocks including a couple of Australian banks and a well managed conglomerate and one insurance company, all for the long term. I also have a heavy weighting of local minerals and energy stocks and one blue chip healthcare/biotech holding.
I have set aside an amount which I am using to trade the ups and downs in the current climate which will probably continue for some years.
33% – high-risk investor looking for high yeilds – willing to take on risks and willing to buck the trend to ride the wave of success.
67% – slow but sure growth long term investments
Remember Martin, I met you and your father in 1980 in LA.
Martin, we were here in 1980, 1987, 1998, 2001, and now 18 months into this..
Unlimited access to the piggy bank allows them to survive another day…
Despite the rally we’ve been having, I am still convinced trading must still be for short term only. It’s too scary to be long right now, especially when a few highly regarded analysts like you Martin, is still warning us to beware….thank goodness for you….Glads, Makakilo, HI
I like the longer term for a foundation but I would also like to take advantage of the up and down swings we are seeing in the present market. Its not often we see such volatility and it could be profitable if you knew what you were doing. Lots of opportunity to take small bites out of the market. I hope you can guide us with short trades also.
I’m starting from scratch. Got to start small, but aggressively ( in the hundreds ). Maybe I’d better just go to Vegas?
Dean
Buy low, sell high. Be patient. The contrarian portfolio recommendations dont exactly fit that model. The fancy models and graphs aren’t 100%. As soon as your absolutly convinced, you’re probably going to get pie the face. Don’t ever invest what you cannot afford to lose. Listen to sound advise, but trust no one to make you a fortune.
Martin,
I’d like to think I’m an investor that is willing to make some money on the up-ticks while being positioned primarily for the Bear, but my actions prove that I’m afraid of the rug being pulled out from under me and am only doing some little Bull trades, primarily in commodities and precious metals.
Jack
I am a long term investor who sells off obvious losers during the year and places the money from the losers in treasuries. I hope the market does not continue to fall, how much is the question? If it does drop again, I will sell more stock that does not pay dividends and place the funds in treasuries. I will not invest more in stocks until the economy turns around and believe this may be early next year.
A bit of both, but more of the former than the latter.
Martin: I am content with the longer term type investment tied to a dominant trend because I dont feel like I have the time or technical knowledge to play with short term market decisions every day. I am in the contrarians group and generally agree eith the moves made to this point. If I could find find more time, I would like to learn more about currency and covered calls . However , since I own a business ,” survival ” in this economic
climate demands my full attention and time. I feel the government intervention in private
is a slope way too slippery to navigate. Regards–John F
What way do I go? I do not like the socialistic turn Washington is taking. By puting my money in safe investments I am making nothing after taxes, yet I do not trust investing in the stock market with the Washington take overs and low returns.
I’m trying NOT to be driven by stock prices where the fear/greed motivation can over-ride analysis and wisdom. I’m trying to be aware of what the longer term trends are (and why) so I can pick the right investments for the current climate.
As a newbie I’m also being ultra-conservative while learning the ropes. For example, I recently bought a Gold Bullion ETF as per your recommendations in Safe Money, but as a Canadian investor I’ve discovered that most of the “rise” in Gold is really a fall in the US dollar. After my (small) investment is converted back to Canadian $, I’m actually down a little. Learning curve stuff – all fun.
Your observations and recommendations are to my mind factual accurate and true-yet the market seems to shrug off all facts and act in a manner independent of reality- I attribute this to covert manipulation of the so-called “free market”- perhaps through the mechanism of these “dark pools” I keep hearing about- which especially seem focused on crushing the double inverse ETF’s you have recommended in the past,such as SRS, QID, etc which seemed like such logical choices as hedges- so as an investor, either long or short-term, it seems like a crap- shoot as opposed to an exercise in sensibility. That being said, I have followed your advice and am 80% short term Treasuries, and 20% stocks, with a 20% return this year so far with alternative energy-STP, TSL , Ford, SLV,GLD, and your rec’s JNN and LPS bringing in the lions share so far
Very interesting to read these. I’ve been learning about trading the last 6-years, and I listened to my broker and did well until last year. I pulled everyting out about Sept. and swore off the market, but then the contrarion report came to my attention.
Martin ,not sure if I have done the right thing going against your advice ,but the 900 stimulus money ,I am sure you heard of over here in Australia,well I put $1000 ,then another $200 in2 an ANZ (one of our top 4 banks here)investment online account ,over the last week it has gained 80 dollars ,but like you I believe the world is not out of the slump ,but hoping for the long term that things will increase ,because we are trying to save for a home instead or renting after selling 2 yrs ago down from where I originally grew u p ,but hay ,the way the world is going ,its predicted that it will all end in 3 yrs ,the world that is so I wont have to worry about mortgages ,or anything by then ,whats your thoughts ,yours Peter here in Old bar NSW 2430 Australia
I’ve traded commodities on Dow, Gold, Oil, Yen & lost a bunch because of going for the home run with aggressive trades. The markets were too manipulated over the last several years because of all the cheap money put into the hands of traders.
I’m still convicned that short term trades are manipulated & only hope the overall trends still must be adhered to. So, for me – I will to follow your reco’s being a member of your Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. Don’t get too crazy about short term pops. Let’s make money slowly & steadily. I tried it the other way & it didn’t work.
Martin, I’m hanging in there with you and Claus, but it can be nerve-racking. I’d really like to earn more interest on my cash than short-term Treasuries pay – and still be safe. Tall order, I know.
unfortunately it was pedicted in the bible that world governments and money would fall and be worth nothing this is whats been coming
To answer you question of which investor am I…I am 85% long term and 15% short term. I am relatively new to entering the markets as an active individual, but have been gobbling up any information I can get my hands on. Information provided that discusses the long term outlook and specific ways to invest for them such as inverse ETFs, as well as discussion about how to capitalize on short rallies helps me invest diversely in terms of type of investments as well as tactics of investing.
I’m another “Bill N” (‘middle name is Neal). Big D in the thirties affected my dad all his life. I alone was with him when he found his bank CLOSED. “What will I DO?” “I don’t know, Daddy.” So I’m for “safe money”. Already I spent something like half my retirement for INFORMATION; yet mostly I’m confused. I had hoped to be far more prepared for the present situation than I am. I beleive that the whole thing has been planned and that the actors are brainwashed dupes and not naturally stupid, except for never having been motivated to educate themselves. What appears to be ahead is total world-wide police state for the indulgence of the elite — the REALLY stupid — and our only individual option is which side to be on. Meanwhile, there’s hardly any time left; so HOW DO WE SURVIVE? Three cheers for world citizens who still create VALUE! We have to have hope. CAN we make it?
I have been trading this market ever since 3/10/09! Both ways! Using small caps long and contra ETF’s to go short! I was in gold (GLD) and cash (MM) ever since 11/08!. I still keep 10% in GLD and trade with the balance
What kind of investor am I — the kind that does not want to lose money — I am not willing to see my gains suffer declines until a bottom is reached just to hope that it I will recover over the long term … what’s the saying “in the long term we are all dead!” So my investment attitude is to play the major trends (waves) that are clearly developing over a 6-12 month rolling timeframe. We live in an interesting world where everything it seems is relative to something else, e.g. the dollar relative to the Euro… Determining which is going to decline fastest against the other it not alway so obvious.
Any way, that’s my 2 cents! Well I guess it 1 cent now given administration policy!
I would like to see some recommendations that take advances in the market into consideration. If market momentum is positive, as it has been for almost three months now, I would like to see some hedging of the contrarian philosophy. I think some advice regarding sectors of the market or stocks that can give us a positive return during upward movements of the market is information a large number of investors would consider useful.
I have remained invested in GLD and several mining companies that have been beaten down but excellent values and are on the upswing. I also am invested in solid dividend paying companies that have not decreased their dividends during this financial crisis. I am retired, 9 years, so we need income, we cannot sit on the side and wait 10 years, we may be dead by then. We also have some inverse ETF’s ( per Martin’s call ) as a hedge. We are still in oil and pipeline company KMP. We also use trailing stop losses in case things get really crazy with bad news. And of course we always listen to Dr.Weiss and his team for advice we TRUST.
God Bless you Martin,
Dick
The short-term rally is challenging investor sentiment. The average guy has to rely on information that he cannot necessarily generate. I, for one, appreciate your efforts in getting us information that is trustworthy. I also appreciate the efforts that are made to minimize any conflicts of interest in providing us with information. Please keep up these efforts. Thank you for challenging your own thinking and inviting the investment community to comment on your recommendations.
The current rally seems unsustainable but it might be some time before the markets accept this. I think we all want to have more “hope” that our country will remember those things that have made us a great nation. The biggest concern right now is that too many Americans have forgotten or have been inept in working to sustain the principles of free government and economic sense. We need less government and more emphasis on the principles of self-reliance. Please help us find those companies and investment themes that are committed to building on integrity and honesty.
SMR
Hi Martin
Thanks for all the valuable information; it really helps keep use focused. What are your thoughts on two issues I have not hear any thing about, but I think should be tossed in the mix? First, our unemployment numbers are defiantly not good; however most I believe are receiving some unemployment insurance. If this is the case the real and total impact on the economy hasn’t even hit yet because of the unemployed contribution to retail spending and mortgage payments being made. So the data, suggesting improvement, from the media is artificial and fueled with government $.
Second, do you feel the reasoning behind the bulk of the so called stimulus package being distributed in 2010 is in the hope the economy will look better, and thus an attempt to buy the 2010 election?
Jerry
I would like to be able to trade a portion of my funds on the rallies rather than just waiting for the economy to sink further. I would like some advice in interpreting what short term effects pumping billions to trillions of dollars the government would have on different market sectors and how to profit from these short term gains, and what are the ETF’s or companies that might benefit from these actions by the government in the short term. Maybe it is a pipe dream.
In order to take part in whatever upside there is in this market, I have left 40% on the table and put the rest into bond funds with no penalties for withdrawal so I could get out shortly and quickly if I am FULLY convinced that all the bad news is out.
I have not shorted anything and am too old to fool around.
Itching to make my small sum large with the next crash and gold but see that my itch
costs me alot. Control and timing and luck are essential. daily guidance from the best
sources can be inadequate…..hellllllp!
I am interested in taking advantage of both sides of the market. I feel that not becoming too greedy regarding short term gains is important. I have disciplined myself to sell your recos if a 20% gain is realized in less than 3-4 months. One exception of that has been GLD. That is my only long term play. In addition, I have learned, the hard way, how important it is to get those stop loss orders in as soon as I make a buy trade. Thank you for the great advice, and happy investing!
I would like to make money between the waves where possible. We would also like to know how to work out a genuine rating for Australian banks please if you can help.
Kind Regards
Pellegrino
I realy do not know what is about to happen!
If I did I would be charging you for this advice.
But I do know I personal am spending very little and and
have money in several locations must of which is in cash.
I wait to see?
J.M. Bell
Here’s a topic for discussion:
Job losses and real estate prices have escalated beyond where many buyers can afford conventional mortgages, regardless of interest rates. A Fee Simple ownership, which endures far beyond the lifetime of an individual, is a luxury that many can no longer afford. The best solution for cost reduction is the Life Estate form of ownership. The purchaser, for a reduced price, would purchase a form of ownership that would terminate on his/her death (or the death of the last surviving spouse).
For example, a 50 year old who just lost his/her job with no prospects in this economy for new employment might have enough paid up equity in their home for a fully paid up Life Estate equity.
I look forward to any comments on this subject.
Dear Martin,
My comments are more from being an historian and PA PFA, retired. But as you know, hsitory and economics cannot be separated… Anyway, I am a conservative income investor, but have most of my money in Canada because I believe Obama will weaken the dollar and potentially bring on Great Depression II, or at least a long and deep Recession.
Having said that, I think comodities, which include utilities and energy, to be reasonably safe for the long term. Our economy has not hit bottom yet, but barring the complete collapse of our civilization — not a completely outrageous possibility — the basics of food and energy should remain sound.
My investment goals now are just to expand my portfolio in the fundamental areas mentioned. I am not interested in seeking short or mid- term growth, at least until the economy hits bottom and begins to rebuild and grow in the fundamentals — a recovery with legs, as it were. But that is some years in the future…
I think the most important reason for careful investing at this time is a defense against the effects of the Obama excesses. He is diligently working to tank the economy, making every error and bad policy judgement possible. He inherited a problem and is turning it into a disaster. Safe survival will depend upon building safe cash flow independent of the dollar and Obama.
Cheers,
Kent Crawford, PhD
The US Dollar will depriciate against the Euro from it’s current 1.41, to 1.57 USD to buy one Euro before September. This depreciation is going to cause the crude price to go up to $118.00 in the next 4 months. Due to the fact that the Canadian Dollar is a petro driven currency it will go up against the USD and it will be at pairity by August and the DOW will reach 11650 level, and I beleave that will be unsustanable and it will fall back to below 7500 again. The wall street suckers will do everything they can to get every penny away from small investors. Carlos Santos
I agree with a bearish trend. I think it is particularly difficult to prosper secondarily to market manipulation risks associated with the plunge protection team, possible gold price suppression and predicting the Fed. LTBH is crazy right now because of the fundamentals. How long can the Fed keep buying debt before the dollar tanks? How long will other sovereigns contine to buy debt from US Treas. I am currently long AUY,SLW,TBT, TMV. I sold HL when they announced their 60 mil issue until I understand why. I trade TWM based on significant moves , buying after major up days and selling before the predictable support that occurs on major down days.
Martin,
I am a convinced long term investor and am happy with investments based on long term trends. The short term has high risk in normal times and forecasting a Fed (with an apparently unlimited budget) move is extremely challenging in the current environment. I prefer the long term except for a small pot of speculative funds – which I keep in my taxable trading account.
Most of us wear two hats; one deploys assets for the long term, the other follows a short-term crapshoot. In these times of crooked government,, crooked banks and crooked brokers, what else can the llittle guy do?
Martin:
We have had an unprecedented runup of leverage and excess debt, both in the private, consumer and corporate sectors. Those bubbles have now burst, with devastating consequences. Our financial system would have melted down had not the fed stepped in to li that would have collapsed the world financial system and
I like both the short term (profitable) outlook and the long term (profitable) trends that I receive when reading the different M&M newsletters, as well as the Uncommon Wisdom letters. You appearance on Glenn Beck was a surprise Monday but I really liked your mention that Ford was not doing as well as some assummed, including me. Thanks again for the advice.
RWR and WCR subscriber, Dave V. Cincinnati
Show me the money now! While I do have a few long term holds that go with some major thesis, i.e. the bond market has topped, I prefer to trade the shorter term trends. My fear for long term holds is that I have missed something in my analysis of the major trends and am dead wrong. The losses could then be staggering. Also, if looked at from a several year time span, bear markets tend to go up and down in intermediate trends. I’d rather try to catch those trends, which as we have seen since March, can be very profitable.
Hi Martin,
Thanks for asking…..
This is a tough time for everybody and certainly for retirees (my status). A bit scarred by the recent past and confronted with the unknowns of the present many of us are on the horns of dilemma. Are we limited only to inverse bets in the face of a seemingly positive (maybe short term) market in which gains are being realized, or, is there less downside way to play this market without giving up essential security?
An appealing approach (may or may not be practical) is one that buys into solid dividend payers which have healthy upside potential. The dividend would seem to offer a shelter, of sorts (I realize their status could change quickly), which would buy us a little time in the event of a major reversal. Couple the latter with the use of sliding stoppers and inexpensive options to prevent a run-away slaughter. Package the former with a foundation of resilient core holdings and provide 24/7 advice on adding or shedding, as conditions warrant. Short of wanting your cake and eating it too, is there a way to use the Contrarian insight with less severe application than we are now doing? As in any competitive environment there are risks in getting closer to the flames. Wise people mitigate that risk with better knowledge and execution.
I would like to see more input on a best case scenario that takes into consideration the artificial meddling that Gov’t has done and will likely continue to do, reflective of your deep knowledge and experience with economic metrics updated by what you know of the current agenda and practice. Add to that a safety net that would stop the bleeding and it provides a far more appealing strategic deployment of limited assets.
I am here because what you convey rings true…..Where do we go from this point?
Thanks for soliciting our thoughts.
Paul Rego
Anticipating return of bear market conditions at some point and so have been adding to my positions in inverse ETFs (and inverse mutual funds in my 401k) on big up days. Haven’t tried any short term trades on the long side. Only long positions in securities have been gold stocks and I have been moving up my stops (got stopped out on NGD today) anticipating a reversal at some point.
I like both the short term (profitable) outlook and the long term (profitable) trends that I receive when reading the different M&M newsletters, as well as the Uncommon Wisdom letters. You appearance on Glenn Beck was a surprise Monday but I really liked your mention that Ford was not doing as well as some assummed, including me. Thanks again for the advice.
RWR and WCR subscriber, Dave V. Cincinnati
I am retired 89 year old, my gole is to try to keep what value I have, I know that when the inevitable high inflaction kicks in, that to be invested in a stock returning me 4or 5 % is not going to keep up. there foure I guess I must put most of my money in precious metals and other commodities that have a chance of mantianing their value. so as to what group I am in guess I do not know.
Martin, I’ve been reading and acting on your advice for a year (M&M, Safe Money, Wealth Report, ETF Trader and now Contrarian). I think we have it right about what SHOULD happen. My fear is that we are up against a 5 Trillion Pound Gorilla (our own Federal Government). You warned of Citi failure, I shorted financials, they bailed it out with taxpayer money and I lost money (one example of many). How can we make prudent choices when there is a 5 Trillion Pound Gorilla stirring up the water?
You said there was a limit to what they could do because they had to sell the debt. Yet on March 18th, they announced they would buy their own debt. Since then the dollar has lost 12% in 3 months. What can we do when cash isn’t safe?
I agree with you Martin, that the economy needs to go thru a cleansing process to get rid of all the bad stuff. However, I’ve lost considerable amount of money by betting with you about what SHOULD happen. I’m beginning to wonder if we can be successful opposing the Gorilla.
Please address these concerns. As I talk with friends around Stuart, Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, many people have the same worries.
John M.
aMartin, do you consider U.S. seroes “I” bonds to be secure??
Thanks,
Bill Jones
bejones1@bellsouth.net
I think America will survive.. perhaps be a better place. People will appreciate things more, do more with less,maybe think of others in less desirable positions than they are. Money alone does’nt make you happy.The pendulum always swings back as another time is advanced.
Dear Martin:
I’ve been invested in precious metals stocks since the mid 1970’s. I’ve seen my portfolio dive 90% on three occasions, the last one being November, 2008. But each time my portfolio has come screaming back within the next 12 months. I make money by selling calls two or three times a year and on the senior stocks make 15 to 30% per year. On four occasions the micro cap stocks that I own have increased 4 – 500 fold. Of course the good times are really good and the bad times are really bad. It is a roller coaster ride. I see the need to change my strategy now that I’m getting older and after December this year need to take profits and invest in some fixed instrument. I hate bonds, so I’m thinking about annunities.
I’m currently invested as Money and Markets has recommended. And, this is good for the long term. I have a problem with the short term and think the extra cash could be used for making some quick profits. We would need quick notices for this kind of activity; Martin, you could provide this via e-mail notices for a fee and possibly make us some money if many are interested.
Happy Investing,
Tom
My question:
I’m just a average person living from paycheck to paycheck. However little I have, I still have few thousands in 403A (b?) and my mandatory retirement account which my employer have set up for all us. They are all money market funds. What should I do if the dollar devalue fast? I can’t change anything except the few thousand in 403A either switch it back to the equality account or keep it in the money market fund. Because it’s up to me. I just read Jim Rogers block as the following:
——————-
S&P Could Go To 50,000 said Jim Rogers
Posted: 03 Jun 2009 12:17 PM PDT
“It’s a bear market rally. I was going to say I don’t think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000. Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.” said Jim Rogers in an interview with The Economic Times of India. and he added : Become a farmer. The world has tens of thousands of hotshot fund managers right now. If I am correct, the financial community is not going to be a great place to be in for the next 30 years. We have many periods in history when financial people were in charge, we had many periods when people who produced real goods were in charge — miners, farmers, etc. The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.
——————-
What do you think?
Hi, Martin with your help I will stay with your long term investments.
Martin,
I’m on board with the contrarian fund and believe the story like your father’s is staring us in the face.
When I thought about how I would feel if I watched it play out and
said “what if and had ?”. I beleve It’s the direction the market will go.
Dr. Weiss,
I am content to hold on to long-term investments, but how do we define “long-term”?
I am 65 years old. I can wait 10 or 12 years, but not twenty.
Can you please tell me WHO is this person/group investing in the market right now? It is driving us crazy watching the market go up while you keep sending us facts that tell us how imprudent it is right now to buy anything you haven’t recommended. Really, WHO is buying right now, especially if the insiders you mentioned in a recent email are selling? WHO is controlling this market? It can’t be individuals. Is it corporate pension funds, 401K managers, and/or hedge fund buyers? How do we keep our calm when these buyers run the market according to their needs and according to their own hours/terms?
A combination of short and long term investments I feel works best at times like this. It’s nice to grab some cash along the way without sacrificing the future.
Dear Martin,
I am an eclectic. And after listening to the Weiss Capital Management webcast this morning, I think your firm is, too. I want to create the “All Weather Blend.” There will always be shortterm opportunities, though harder to time. But clearly right now, there is so much compelling evidence that the Bears will be outnumbering the Bulls for an extended period of time. The inflation tital wave that is coming will be like no other we have seen in our lifetimes. If only Milton Friedman could be here today!
Thank you for your realism, your passion for the marketplace, and, hopefully, for these investment directions I am taking for my own Contrarian Investment Fund. Bill Ditz
I would like to make money between the waves, if possible. I firmly believe that we as a country have to “pay the piper” for the ridiculous spending spree that we are on and I am waiting for that shoe to drop.
I’m somewhere in between, but my real concern is that when you follow the long term bear assumption – how far down the road is it anticipated that the market will turn down again? If it is sometime in the next few months – that’s one thing, but if it is several years down the road as many of your predictions have been in the past, how can one justify sitting on the sidelines for several years making almost nothing on our money? When we discuss the gloomy picture for the market – are we talking short term or several years?
I try to be a long term investor and have joined the Million $ contrarian portfolio. I am a bit frustrated with the use of the EFTs in that the SPY is down 30% from a year ago and one should expect SH to be up the same but it is about ZERO. Same comparing PSQ and QQQQ. One could have done as well just holding cash instead of PSQ or Sh for a year. The results for the past 3 months does give a reciprical result but that precludes a long holding period in these ETFs!!!!!Please explain if you can. Thanks for all your work. BLW
I believe we are in the midst of a crisis of growth of capitalism.
The root of this crisis was the incorporation of the former socialist economies in the world economy.
Large new economies such as China, with extremely low costs of production generate unprecedented competition for western economies, which has caused the failure of many American and European firms.
These failures produce unemployment, which creates low consumption and a negative economic cycle.
The financial crisis actually was trying to use debt to resolve the lack of competitiveness.
The Western governments are doing the same through public debt. But the only solution to this problem is the western economies to become as competitive as China.
This will or by the low wages or through the use of technology that enables lower costs of production, or a mix of both.
So, in my opinion, what will happen is more globalization, more capitalism and less government regulation (the present is merely an episode).
The U.S. and Europe are not at risk of becoming Socialists with nationalized companies. There is the risk of becoming poorer with poorer quality of life.
In my view the long-term investments should be made in competitive companies, and now, especially in the chinese or the westerners companies who can be competitive in this new global capitalism.
Dear Martin,
I have been a keen follower of your Money & Market website and a loyal subscriber of some of your paid investment newsletters. Personally, i am still struggling to find what is the right investment strategy that fits my risk/reward tolerance profile.
I have tried to contain my greed by jumping into equity markets after the disasterous 2007-2008 experiences. Have been holding back investment based on the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio recommendations. But then see the equity market charges ahead since the low in March 6, 2009 hence a sense of missing out the opportunity to profit from the secular bear market rally.
Similarly with the Currencies ETF investment recommendations. Brian has held a strong and positive view (the strengthening) of USD versus EURO for some months now but the general market sentiments have been quite negative on USD. Clearly, there a mismatch of timing and momentum of the currrent market trend itself. I sincerely hope to make some profitable trades with my Currencies ETF too.
I am still learning to be emotionally discipline in my investment. Hope your team can device some tools/investment strategies which could also help us to make some profits whilst waiting for the bear market rally to end too.
Thanks
FWLam
My reason for joining the million Dollar Contranian Portfolio is my belief and trust in you and Claus. It was this trust that convinced me to exit the market before I suffered serious damage to my portfolio. I do not have the understanding of market trends and fundamential trends that are necessary for me to make these decisions. Your track record speaks volumes. You are our leader. Sincerely James
I think a lot of your readers, myself inclusive, need the following quantitative and qualitative information re: clarification on the following;
1) Discribe be examples, how hard it will become to buy into an Inverse ETF once the market starts to decline. Alternatively, how easy will it be to get-out?
2) Why is it necessary to hold onto an Inverse ETF “and in this instance ride down with it.” Given the fact that the Administration is “pumping-up” the market. How does it relate to NO.1 above.
Martin; I believe the 2 factions that you describe are a result of part of your audience’s lack of expierence. We lack timing and a good yardstick in many instances. I feel your comments are dead-on.
If you could answer the above questions it will definitely help relieve what appears to be a desire to get rich quick. Good Luck & God Bless,
Anthony Montalbano
Answer: Actually I’m both kinds – looking back probably have always been both kinds of investors. Most people are greedy and most people are anxious when you loose. So first off, I want to have enough stability in my portfolio now to sleep at night and a small portion of money to be able to invest in opportunities, riding ups and downs…but use the lesson I learned mostly late last year and 1Q09 which is to not be a complete, 100%, head in the sand, long term holder of any one investment waiting for it to come back or just a few dollars higher tomorrow. Set some upper and lower limits on when to sell or I optimistically call it scooping off profit and move that profit to your stable portfolio. This strategy reminds me of when as a young guy, I asked my Dad why our neighbor down the street always had a car to sell. Son he is a 10%er. Seems it has taken me 50 years to learn this lesson. So that’s my challenge ..to discover what the opportunities are, take that chance, stay within my limits and if by chance its positive – scoop off the profit and tuck it away.
Good investing to all of us.
Reg
Do not fight the market. If you are long on the market now, then keep very tight stops in place so you are out very soon after it turns. You can use GLD or use gold futures and get better leverage. You can also sell covered calls against a futures position.
Be short the 30 year treasuries futures. It is difficult to short TLT, but you can buy a put (a LEAPS put) on it.
DBA and DBC are good hedges for the long term.
It is good for all of us to be optimistic about our future and the future of the USA, but I am afraid that OBAMA will take us too far into fascism and socialism for anyone to pull it out. He has stated that he is going to falsify the 2010 census and therefore make his majority permanent. He intends to then set himself up as a permanent dictator.
It is amazing that his ratings are still quite high. The public has no idea what is happening. After the baby boomers lose their social security benefits and their medicare coverage in order for Obama to cover the welfare recipients and the uninsured, they will want to turn things around and put Obama out — but it will be too late.
We took over Panama in a one day war under Reagan. Why have we not ousted Chavez in Venezuela? He is spreading terrorism throughout S. America. We could use the oil there to pay ourselves back for the cost of a short conflict, just as we should be doing in Iraq.
The economy could possibly be turned around with the implementation of The Fair Tax, but I see little chance of this happening now.
Obama’s nominee for SC judge is an admitted bigot and a racist.
Keep up the good job, Martin
I would like to know if the US governmant could be directly intervening in the US stock market so as to keep prices up. I believe that the Canadian government has done just that in the past.
Hi Martin,
First to thank you for the years of good advice that culminated in my passing through last year’s disaster largely intact. I am by nature an optimist and your cautionary mode several times prevented me from going off the high board when there was no water in the pool.
I’m a member of MDP but feel it is inadequate as the sole approach to investing. I am uncertain even if a “long term” philosophy is the most appropriate investment stance in view of the new paradigm the world is experiencing now; that is, minimal leverage, no hyping of growth and profit numbers conjured by consumer borrowing, etc. History illustrates that periods following a severe downsizing are characterized by vigorous rallies and declines and who can say how long “long term” can be? My thought is to apportion some portion of my investment money to the MDP and another sum to trading these swings, and to pounce on opportunistic circumstances as they appear.
To watch a rally like this one go by is contrary to my reasoning. I’m happy to take 15% or so out of the middle sit back and wait for the next opportunity or the long term bottom, whichever comes first.
I find it difficult to sit quietly taking losses in my shorts that I can only hope will be small enough to not absorb most of the gains on the next decline.
Philosophically I lean toward the style of the noted investor who’s name I can’t remember but whose words I recall; to wit:
“I always buy too late and sell too soon”
I’m a bit of both. The bulk of my investment is in for the long term following the what I see as the coing grea depression. There’s also a small portion set aside to trade on a shorter term basis. hat money is typically dedicaetd not to short term market trends but rathe to companies I perceive to have outstanding, non competitve products in growing markets. To name a couple American Supecoductor, the leading supplier of superconducting wire for use in transmission lines, wndmill turbnes, energy storage devices to permit windmills to inteface with the grid, motors and generators. CREE a supplier of LEDS, an extremely effective source of light for use in light bulbs, displays billboards and a wide vaiety of other applications. There are many copanies I’m sure who will buck the trend because they have breakthrough technologies or other marketing advantages. Needless to say, I wouldn’t be here talking on this board if I did not believe that the long term picture for the US is downhill and I don’t want to be caught in the downdraft.
Bill Gruenwald
doing the same as richard but added an inv etf
I’m neither. I want to have the majority of my money invested to win from the major trend. If I have some spare cash, and I like the risk, I would also want a way to make a little extra money from the rallies. I want it all…
I am also a Canadian as Is Grant who commented above. Also like him I have found that after paying the exchange rate to enter with US dollars and with them falling as they are I would be signiicantly behind the eight ball if I had not hedged the dollar with EWC ETF. My preferrance would be to have some recommendations that Give us some potential to pick up some gains if the market continues to rise. An opportunity to pick up enough revenue to cover the losses on the contrary ETF’s would be very nice. Thanks to you and Claus for your patience in listening to all the monday morning quarterbacks.
I AGREE WITH KENT CRAWFORD. MY DEGREE WAS IN ECONOMICS AND ACCOUNTING AND I TOOK MANY HOURS OF HISTORY BECAUSE HISTORY IS ECONOMICS IN ACTION.
I AM RETIRED , SPENT 43 YEARS ON THE GM FINANCIAL STAFF IN DETROIT ALTHOUGH I DID WORK AT CHEVROLET,HYDRAMATIC THE CENTRAL OFFICE OF GM. I SPENT THE LAST ELEVEN YEARS AS DIRECTOR OF THE GM AUDIT STAFF . MADE MANY VISITS TO EUROPE ON BUSINESS.
THE ONE I NOTICED IN ENGLAND, GERMANY AND FRANCE WAS THE LACK OF DRIVE BY THOSE SUBSIDIARIES’ EMPLOYEES. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE USA AND THE WAY IT IS BEING HANDLED CONVINCES ME THAT AMERICA IN IN A LONG TERM DECLINE. THE MORAL DECLINE IS THE MAJOR PROBLEM , I THINK. THE RECKLESS SPENDING BY BOTH PARTIES HAD COME HOME TO ROOST. I PRAY FOR OUR COUNTRY DAILY BUT I AM AFRAID WE HAVE TURNED OUR BACK ON GOD AND NOW WE ARE GOING TO SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES.
THANKS FOR THE CHANCE TO EXPRESS MY VIEWS.
JAMES ALEX
Martin,
I am 50-50. Currently I am trying to repair my retirement which at my age 62 should be conservative, but aggressive enough to make up some losses. I understand the economic fundamentals, but also know that sentiment and other cyclic forces affect the market. I would like to see specific developments addressed with the depth your organization possesses. Specifically address countertrend anomolies in real time…1.e;
-Friday, May 29 – 20+ yr bonds rose consistently all day in middle of downtrend.
-Looming prime and Alt A mortgage collapse,,,wouln’t most have now refinanced?
-Sean Brodrick specifically claims ETF QQQQ is very strong (PSQ???)
-Business cycle prediction of rally till August (does goverment intervention change it?)
Glenn
There is a small town called Schwabach just outside of Nuremberg in Germany. There in the
late 1940’s I saw on a Rope Makers Building chiseled into stone:
Die kleinen Diebe haengt man, die Grossen laesst man laufen
Waer die sache umgekehrt wuerd ich mehr Seil verkaufen.
In plain English that means:
The little Thieves they hang them, the big Thieves they let go
If the matter were reversed, I would sell a lot more Rope !
In English it doesn’t rhyme, but it comes accross as some old wisdom.
My bank send me an application for a limited time “Special”(Wachovia) a loan application
for 6.9% – - – - The money I have deposited at their facility, they pay me around 1/2%.
I guess thats what the Ropemaker meant, by letting the big Crooks, the Banksters and
the Gangsters go free. Except our Government pays them to do what they are getting
away with. Sometimes I wonder, what is a bigger Crime, to rob a Bank or to open one ?
Martin, I’ve followed your advice for many years now. Thanks for keeping our retirement funds safe. We have these in Fidelity Money Markets (taking care to limit the value to under $250K). I know they are not Treasury Bills, but we feel pretty confident in their stability. We also have several small accounts that we use to follow the Mr. Speculator section of your Safe Money publication. Although I don’t like it, I believe this country will go through a rough depression. Absolutely no way we can continue to “Bail out” banks, auto, real estate, etc. It will get bad. Really bad. Hope and pray that I am wrong.
Martin,
First, I want to thank you for helping me weather the storm so far. I have taken your advice in Safe Money Report and followed your Mr. Conservative portfolio. I am happy to say that I am ahead of the game and I sleep well at night. I also have a copy of your book and keep it next to my desk in my den. I’m 79 years young and still working (my choice). I have helped my grandchildren through college. I am ready to take a small amount of my porfolio and invest, with your advice, in the short term rallies of this crazy stock market. God bless you and thank you for all your help.
Mike Santoro
I’m in the aggressive boat Martin. Of course, I won’t say that without acknowledging that it takes a tremendous amount of skill, focus, and perseverance to short-term trade in a profitable and consistent manner. Much time can be spent searching for the credible resources you need to make timely decisions and daily screen time to build your experience. But, I’m all for it. I thrive on the education and love seeing my efforts pan out in a shorter time frame. I think it was your service that led me down the
inverse fund path. That’s the kind of information most people have no idea exists. I would like to see more of it and across all markets. Keep up the good work!
Dr. Weiss,
I live on the West Coast on the island of Tierra Verde. When you’re Tampa you have to visit and stay wth my wife and I and our two Bearded Collie’s. We have great sunsets, staying with us would be more comforable than a hotel, safe and the money you save can be invested your potofolio.
My wife and I live on interest income. Iinflation will make buyng TIPS and Bonds exciting after haveing so much of my portfilio directed to T-bills.
What economic factors and yields should I pay attention to when I pull the trigger to get into the TIPS and Bond Market.
Sincerely,
Kevin Cronin
I have to keep most of my money safe as I am retired and need to use some of it to live on. I have the recommended ETF’s,and it is hard to take the paper losses without having any idea what the definition of “long term” is. I think there is always money to be made somewhere (to balance off some of the losses) and would like to have about 10%-15% of
my money invested in things that are making money now. I have American Century Capital Preservation Fund and am wondering whether BIL ETF would be better for some
money because it has only 1-3 month treasuries (I think) while the Am Cent fund has treasuries out to 12 months or so (I think). Can you clarify this?
I am looking to play the more turbulent markets with as many short term gains as possible. I am looking to pull short term returns of 8-11 percent in each of my investment choices. I will be riding the long and short positions of what ever opportunity presents themselves. I will accomplish this by trading ETFs.
i think today more than ever a person needs to be flexible and open minded. the days of buy and hold for the long term are over. one needs to follow both the fundamental and technical aspect of the market and buy low (long) and sell high (short). i believe in the putting 10% of your capital at risk and the rest in a balanced portfolio contingent on your age and life expectancy.
Martin,
I’m both of these investors: I have the majority of my retirement funds in short term treasuries (3 day). However, I have other funds I like to use for trading on a regular basis to profit from the undulating merket. So maybe in the Safe Money report there should be a section entitled Mr. Trader vs Mr. Speculator?
Wow, good question. I can honestly say that I was both. After being burnt on the quick trade process, you can now say that I am patient and willing to wait. With the advise you provide, I have a great comfort level and am able to bide my time as I know what the future holds for investments, thanks to you all.3
There is a small town called Schwabach just outside of Nuremberg in Germany. There in the
late 1940’s I saw on a Rope Makers Building chiseled into stone:
Die kleinen Diebe haengt man, die Grossen laesst man laufen
Waer die Sache umgekehrt wuerd ich mehr Seil verkaufen.
In plain English that means:
The little Thieves they hang them, the big Thieves they let go
If the matter were reversed, I would sell a lot more Rope !
In English it doesn’t rhyme, but it comes accross as some old wisdom.
My bank send me an application for a limited time “Special”(Wachovia) a loan application
for 6.9% – - – - The money I have deposited at their facility, they pay me around 1/2%.
I guess thats what the Ropemaker meant, by letting the big Crooks, the Banksters and
the Gangsters go free. Except our Government pays them to do what they are getting
away with. Sometimes I wonder, what is a bigger Crime, to rob a Bank or to open one ?
**********************
I am a very careful, conservative investor. I just hedged myself on the positive/long side with an inverse ETF to hopefully grab a bit of the maniacle stock rise from 3/9, plus I have a number of inverse/short ETF’s positioned to profit from a potential downturn, as recommended by Claus. I am interested in making some “quick kill” trades, but, again, with pretty good substantiation in market trends. Judging from what I am reading and hearing, the majority of the “stock analysts” see more runway in this latest crazy market run up; hopefully the trend will be my friend, both short and long.
Japan has demonstrated that a major economy can be built and can function without ready access
to raw materials. Europe has shown that major economies, generating standards of living that
greatly exceed the standards for huge numbers of our people, can function superbly with high levels of labor organization. Unfortunately, the US has chosen to stop accessing many raw materials in favor of outsourced manufacturing, cleverly closing both the organized-labor sites that
used to mine our materials and the unionized plants that processed them. The result, now that home equity is gone for 100 million or so people, is that we will be a nation of people 1 week’s pay
from calamity who paint each other’s toenails and give each other tattoos for a tenuous living. Who in his/her right mind would invest a dime, let alone serious money, in such a pathetic place?
I definitely am not a buy-and-hold investor. I believe this strategy is for people who do not know how to trade on a daily basis or for investors who do not do the math.
Every stock trades within a range. It is the job of the investor to buy the stock at the lowest price possible within the range. This can be done utilizing a limit order, valid until cancel.
Once the stock is purchased, you can place a trailing stop sell order, with 1% to 25% strike price, depending on the trading range, volatility index, and your risk tolerance.
People do not realize that a 50% drop in the price of a stock will require a 100% rebound to break even. If you pay $7.00 per trade, a $50 drop in a $100 stock would allow you to buy it and sell it about four times. So, what is the point of holding to it?
By using this strategy you can play any market, with minimal risk. I have always used it and all my portfolios sold before the market started to crash in July of 2007. I made money instead of suffering the staggering losses that most investors had.
I don’t need to know how to follow the swings. I just want to know how to profit from the down trend. Thanks for all the information you make available to us. God bless.
dear martin;
I AM 89+4 months and went through the 1929 slump which improved after i was discharged in 1945. i am looking for our muslim president to pull a franklin rooselvelt and call a banking holiday and confiscate all this phoney money they have printed and give us back about five cents on the dollar in newly printed money. if you have money at the present time i would suggest putting it in some other investment. maybe you can excape loosing everything.—fred
I first got my feet wet investing in fall ‘08, totally amazed by my incredible timing. I naturally started out buy-and-hold, holding fond hopes for all my holdings, but was quickly cured of that naive mindset after selling after mostl of my stocks promptly plunged into the abyss. I soon tuned into intermediate-term trading, and managed to regain my losses, and now like day trading. I look forward to doing more after my 3X inverse financial sector ETF gets above water again and frees up my trading funds.
Perhaps coming full circle, I’d like to gain the security of investing long-term in some stocks like commodities, even tho I do like the idea of catching gains between the waves for fast gains.
I am a bit of both. Most stocks I own now are MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS that together average 12% yield. Most all of them have appreciated considerably during these Bear Rallies. I believe that a major correction in the market is inevitable so I have put tight “stop Losses” to protect myself. I have no stop losses on precious metals securities as I believe gold will break out big as the doller gets pounded. I am trying to put at least 10% into gold bouilon coins as safety from the dollar. I also have a good cash position. I have subscribed to your MILLION DOLLAR CONTRARIAN PORTFOLIO (I do not have a million dollar fund). So I trying to play on both sides but leaning toward and waiting for the next bear market correction
Dear Martin,
I am a New Zealand psychologist, trustee and a subscriber of yours. I lived in San Francisco for 12 years until 2002. Your advice (I started reading you in 2001) has been a core help to me. Thank you.
My views on the way forward overlap with the comments above. Our NZ trust is focused on income and has been since 1998. We moved to NZ and into the NZ currency in 2002 (luck and good timing with regard to currency). We have been 50% hedged out of NZ dollar, mostly in Euro, Aus, Canada, Norway, GLD since March 2008. We significantly reduced our US dollar position last month.
I agree with you Martin (and Richard Russell, H.S.Dent and others) that there will be a series of “debt default crises” in the coming years. An Australian economist (Steve Keen who has a great book called Debunking Economics), keeps a close and accurate tab on total US debt across all sectors. In summary his analysis suggests that total US indebtedness is currently USD 53 trillion (that is without unfunded liabilities!), that the largest sector, financials, is STILL 17.5 trillion leveraged. There is no way that the US government can arrest this debt liquidation that is likely to cascade from one sector to another both in an orderly and disorderly fashion over the coming years. In our view, this debt reduction will deflate all asset classes except perhaps for the strongest currencies.
We are staying in the strongest currencies in short term paper (government and government guaranteed deposits) and we have 20% in core GLD as both a deflation and inflation hedge. We believe that deflation will be the dominant force over the next 5 to 10 years and we will remain in cash until stocks and real estate hit their lows (if we can identify these lows that is!). To increase cash flow, we particularly will be looking to identify a temporary interest rate peak in long term government bonds in the next year, as the stimulus packages work their way through the system, creating a false sense of recovery. We then expect the deflationary forces to return strongly knocking interest rates back down for the next 10 years. We will be looking to buy such income across different currencies.
Thanks again Martin for your advice this decade and also of your other team.
Kind regards,
Michael G. Walker, PhD
Auckland
Dear Martin:
I predominantly have the patience to wait it out and follow your recommendations. Occasionally if something looks good to you and seems worthwhile to make a move, again, I’ll take your recommendation. With your experience and the fine people you have gathered around you, all I can ask you is……What would you do for yourself??? I asked myself that question thousands of times treating patients, provided the options and found it was very easy to sleep……always.
CNBC, what planet are these guys on? To them the recession has seen the bottom and we’re heading for recovery. I feel like I’m in the “Twilight Zone” when CNBC is on the air. These folks are going to look really foolish in the near future. Rick Santelli is the only person with any sense of reality on the show. If you’re not in hard assets you’ll be on hard times, I think the worst is still ahead of us…..thanks Martin for your foresight..
I would like to earn some money between the ups and downs in the market. Knowing there will be some losses from time to time. I hate to see my money setting and not earning some money.
The economy is headed further into chaos. The rising interests rates will drive the stock market down leading to more layoffs, higher crime rates and eventually a deep depression. The government is the group that will benefit and caused this mess.
I see the market as being manipulated by some group so as to appear that the Bulls are running it. My account is in a holding pattern waffling up and down. The ETFs only
make money if the DOW drops 200 points. The normal stocks go down as the ETFs go up so the portfolio is going nowhere. This is very boring. If I knew options, investing would be a waste of time. Investing works in a true BULL market.
I am definitely a person who wants to make money whether the market goes up or down.
I feel that the Obama administration is making a bad situation far worse. So I am very bearish on the U.S. stock market on a long term basis. But I don’t want to hold an inverse S&P ETF and have paper losses while there are major bear market rallies.
I don’t want to even be in cash while the market is rallying. I want to be in an ETF that makes money during that time.
I don’t expect to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. But I do want to take advantage of major intermediate trends in the market (such as the bear market rally we have just experienced).
I’m following your contrariran portfolio although I’m surprised that Claus has not purchased a short long term bond ETF. All signs have been pointing to higher long term interest rates.
I would like to see some discussion of tax free muni bonds. Like me, I suspect a number of your readers depend on income from investments for monthly living expenses. I went to tax free munis when it became apparent Obama would be elected back in early 2008 and higher taxes were on the way. It hasn’t been a smooth ride but they are still throwing off real non-taxable income that I need. It’s either that or get out and spend the principal for living expenses. Neither is a good choice right now.
Hi Martin,
I am a conservative value type investor. I am very close to retirement and lost quite a bit of my modest 401K rolled over into IRA investment when I got layed off in 2001. It appears that I don’t qualify for your all weather portfolio so I am looking possiby to invest in a “permanent portfolio” or equivalent. I was asleep in the bull run and then it hit home, I got on a roll doing research and that is how I found your website. My “long term investing” has been spent so my next long term will be shorter. I’m looking to survive financially as comfortably as possible. I am invested in short term T-bills (T Rowe Price) for now as we deflate and looking for an “affordable” all weather scheme for the near future. I see hell on the horizon but also opportunity if I can find or make up my own “permanent portfolio”.
deval of $ is potentially highly inflationary. gold silver good hedge. gold/ dow ratio in 2000 was 45:1 – now 9:1. everyone should have some precious metals. Lord Overstone said it best in 1846 – NO WARNING CAN SAVE A GROUP OF PEOPLE TO DETERMINED TO GROW SUDDENLY RICH. Enough said. God Bless !
Dear Martin,
The government printing presses will crowd out the 10 year bond and the 10 year
has already forced up refinancing mortgages by 3/4 to 1%. This is a recipe for disaster
as more adjustable mortgages reset. The bank stress test was a public relations joke
to make everyone feel better and insiders are selling as fast as possible and secondary
offerings as well. Some unknown surprise will trigger the next selloff. Gold ETF’s and
the short ETF’s like SDS and SKF and gov. money markets may be the only place to hide.
10 times $50.00 for the S&P equals 500 target! Thanks, Rich in St. Louis
Socialist America? never.Fidel Castro would die laughing.It would be the end of capitalism.
My wife and I are following your contrarian portfolio and believe in this investment direction at this time. Learning is the greatest reward I am currently receiving. We are becoming comfortable investing in long positions, inverse ETF’s, commodities,etc.
The area’s we would like to learn more about is currencies and covered calls/puts, etc. This would further round out our investment knowledge.
Thanks
Gary
martin , I have been an investor in the stock market for over 20 years now. I am mexican and we have gone through many local crisis, but this one, inherited and imported, is the strongest for our economy ,which depends close to 80 % of our exports to the US. Our foreign investment dropped 40% ( more than 50 % from the US). Our mexican citizen transfers from the US are over 10% lower , our tourism income is 40% lower ( including the influenza effect) our oil price exports also , so is production ( 15%down) : our level on unemployment is at its peak , when we should be creating 1,000,000 jobs per years we will probably loose 600,000 to 750,000 this year . We are your neighbors with a per capita of 8000 us per year. WE a drug cartel problem . and 40% of the mexican population lives under the 4 dollars a day income. WE are trying our best to adjust to the situation, and it is our best interest that the US succeds in its efforts to improve their terrible situation.
Investing in what shold we be doing?
In our people, education and future opportunities for our children and the children of our children …… any suggestions??????
I am in complete agreement with Doug… who posted his note to you on 6/03/09 at
5:37 pm. We’re riding in the same boat with the same oarsmen. I want to shoot for the long term rather than instant gratification. That means knowing the difference
between saving and investing as your most recent book, The Ultimate Depression
Survival Guide , explains.
I am both— I trade the short term swings in an account that is about 5% of my liquid assets and never put more money in. The rest is allocated to the longer term trends and is infrequently traded. Currently I invest in commodity related companies and those that pay significant dividends. I am also in utilities and TeleCom throughout the world. A significant potion of my portfolio is invested in Canada in Income trusts or in MLP’s in the US.
I have been investing in the stock market since I was 23 yrs. old that was 20 yrs. ago back then it was relatively easy to assess a company. Today times have changed, at the speed of light your investment is gone. I made a small fortune as a young man & got a little burned by the dot com. Everyone was doing it I finally fell for the scam & lost a few bucks.
I am long on Gold both physical & GLD. I have been playing Potash, Barrick, Colgate & Praxair & have been doing fairly well, but I want a Homerun!!!! I would really like to take advantage of the market now. With the prospect of inflation rearing it’s ugly head & with what was said about anything coming from the ground (staples) becoming very expensive rice, soybeans etc,… seems pretty intriguing.
I do not think the worse is over I firmly believe these so called analysts are very over optimistic. This mess was not created in 1-3 yrs. it took 18. So how can it be turned around in a couple of yrs.
I feel deeply sorry for those that this has devastated!!
After just reading Dr. Crawford’s assessment the only thing to add is greater civilizations have fallen!!
Regards
Charles H. 6-3-09
It used to be said that if the U.S. catches cold, Canada gets pneumonia. Now things might be different, and I am considering putting our modest cash into a Canadian bank in Canadian money. My goal is a conservative one: to maintain the value of our resources. There may be a window of deflation as before, but Obama Inc. seems completely out of control. Canadian banks have only 3% sub prime loans, unlike U.S banks which have 25% such loans. Also, no Canadian banks have yet failed. Am I going wrong here? And should holders of Verizon shares sell them before the next drop?
Phew. To me ending in a “socialist’ state and then going on,getting better, is not living,and definetly not an improvment. Folks need to research what living in such a system is like. THe have’a and the have not’s. Not for the ONE,you are have not.
Money? I have more faith attempting to bury a few green dollars and a few coins, to see what grows ,than I do in anything else today.
“PEOPLE WHO TAKE THINGS FOR GRANTED GET TAKEN” I fear the majority of the USA has been taken.
Like everyone else, I’m unhappy about the situation with the automakers, GM and Chrysler. But I think the alternatives would have been much worse. I’m long retired and well into my 80s. My main objective now is to have something to leave to my children because I see possible tough times ahead for them.I have, therefore, little time or stomach for speculation. Currently my savings are mostly in short and intermediate term corporate bond funds(Vanguard), some gold and silver, and some equity investments.
DEAR MARTIN;
I AM NOW AGED 79 YEARS AND AS A CANADIAN I KNOW WE HAVE THE REPUTATION AS BEING HEWERS OF WOOD AND CARRIERS OF WATER.
HOWEVER, ALL THE ECONOMIC NEWS IS ABOUT THE USA, ETC.. ARE WE A VILLAGE IN THE WILDERNESS?
I DON’T TRUST OUR BANKS TO THE EXTENT YOU GUYS DO AND OUR ECONOMY IS MAINLY RELIANT ON OUR GOOD NEIGHBOURS TO THE SOUTH.
HOW ABOUT SOME OF YOUR WISDOM ON THE DIRECTION WE CANUCKS ARE GOING OR SHOULD TAKE. EXCEPTING TO SELL OUR WATER AND OUR WOOD.
CORDIALLY
TERRY
I think today – especially with the internet – many of “us” are interested in a agressive hands on approach. Instead of day trading call it Week or Month trading. Today we can “manage” in the morning before work or in the evening, even while watching TV! Today we are so much more informed individually. Face it our past “money managers” failed us miserably. Gee – a broker just cannot tell all his clients to sell – he must be a cheerleader also, and will cheer even as his team is loosing, as is his job. Just last week my bank, Wakovia, called me in and pushed me to invest in a mutual fund! So who do we trust – I say no one and listen to the likes of you, then make our own decisions. Thank you for your efforts – Dave.
I am a member of the million dollar contrarian group and am content to follow Claus in building my portfolio with inverse ETFs a little at a time and being patient. Last December and January I was jumping in and out of the market and did myself no favors. So now I’m trying a more strategic approach. I must admit that I’m surprised at how long this bear market rally has lasted, and how people can get so excited over “green shoots” when Chrylser and GM are going bankrupt with many more people becoming unemployed as a result. Many more mortgages are getting ready to reset upwards, exacerbating the foreclosure problems. Then there are the already foreclosed homes that are still on the banks’ books. The banks don’t want them there, but they won’t sell them at a lower price than what they stubbornly want. So the property falls further into disrepair making it even less attractive to buyers. I know a little about it because I’ve been riding around with a realtor lately listening to her talk to a realtor for a bank. The bank is stubbornly refusing to negotiate their price, but the property is a wreck!! I wonder what people are smoking that they think we are almost out of our recession!! So I can be patient and wait. I don’t need the money now anyway. It’s long-term investment money. I’m learning that the best way to invest is to learn patience. Then when the timing is right, my investments will be where I need them. What I need help with most, is getting my timing right, and making sure I’m still going in the right direction. I get that from Martin, Claus and Mike. I also find value in the other authors of Money and Markets and in Currency Comments. -Jane
Dear Martin,
Which one am I? My answer is both!
I think we should allocate some investments to both. For me, this would be the best way to diversify our holdings.
What do you think?
Ross Charette
Dear Martin,
I am always looking for what I have to do now. Our Country is spending at a rate unheard of for years. Is their really an answer for us to take.
Martin as a real estate counselor/appraiser for nearly 40 years (commercial property only) and having grown-up, in a business sense, with offices in NJ and NYC – traveling nationally for over 20-years for the Wall Street boys and large financial institutions – My experience in real estate says this is the worst of the worst – collapsing prices and frozen financial markets. In the 1970 we had the frozen financial markets (high interest rates and gas lines) in the 80’s we had over zealous development and a glut of inventory – today we have both, although inventories have been kept relatively low – but worse is the recent and unsustainable spiraling price curve, due to artifically low return rates. This has caused a huge debacle – best evidenced by the lack of transactions world-wide. And while the pundits suggest, and rightfully so, the commercial real estate market is the next “shoe to fall” it is far greater than that since the decline will be signficant and unprecedent in modern history in terms of price/values. I believe their will be an adjustment back to reality from the loft prices over the past few years and then the decline will start from their from an intuitive standpoint – thus declines as much as 70% will take place for properties that actually are’nt so bad.
I would like to know how that will play into the “market” over the foreseeable future. Too, how much of the $ in the market today is generated by institutional investors – as supposedly they are more fundamental and not excuberists. Did the institutional investment community screw-up so bad that they have to cover their asses by bouying up the market – like we are witnessing now for no good reason – or will the market correct downward as it should since the fundamental are so crappy!
Martin,
I am a day trader. I would never hold in this market, that would be asking for a possible disaster. As I see the market today, imagine a small town called “LittleGreenShootVille, USA”. Now look off in the distance and into the possible future – and there bearing down on this idyllic hopeful naive community there are approaching tornadoes – and each one has a name: Rising Interest Rates, Overwhelming Debt, Rising Unemployment, Personal Bankruptcies, Business Bankruptcies, Credit Card Debt, Credit Default Swaps, Bank Failures, Currency Devaluation, Deflation, Depression, Inflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation, Commercial Real Estate Bust, Foreclosures, Stock Market Collapse, Unforeseen Consequences.
This is the impending future for LittleGreen ShootVille. That is why I am a day trader.
A separate serious question for you, Martin, (who I truly admire greatly), please tell me why I should even be in short term treasuries when by doing so and rolling over funds into these I could suffer severe losses if there is a sudden currency devaluation.
Most Sincerely,
Bert
My move to invest with safety net has me tied to corp. and Gov. bonds, insured for maturity valve with interest to reinvest in same. I am happy with interest and valve of gov. bonds at this point. Corp. bond valve is down 30%, ok if I don’t need cash redemption. If the USA dollar is loss I am broke . So everything is insured for maturity
valve?
I am a trader. I will be an investor again when I see C-suite executives and companies making decisions that will create long-term value for shareholders. Most of the last 20 years has been about fat bonuses and quick stock-option millions that were made by a bull market and not by growing earnings and market share.
Don’t people realize that government take-overs of banking and industry are creating a fascist state in which corporate and government interests are identical and and at the same time antagonistic to the interests of individuals and their freedoms?
Question: Att. Martin – Would the tanking of the US economy be intentional – with the US down on its knees, a dominant world currency move may be much easier? Somebody must be telling Bush and Obama what to do.
Master currency moved from Italy to England about 1100, and again moved to the US early in WW ll, when England was on its knees. China is poised for the next great commercial gain, however, could it be “world currency” that they’re after? I think the Amero is out, and China – well I can’t tell – what do you think? (confidential maybe?)
Richard,
Content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, HOPING…and PRAYING… that ultimately will have the opportunity to grab substantial profits? (The current political situation necessitates the change from “knowing” to hoping and praying)
Claus’ May 29 MDC “Issue” was very thorough and sensible. Our economy is in such a disgusting mess, it is only a matter of time before a major unraveling of the whole structure occurs. My wife and I believe the bulk of our finances should be situated in such a way to maximize our chances of survivable.
I will however continue to allot a small portion-an amount we can afford to loose- to option trades. This more than enough satisfies the “itch”.
I think there is nothing wrong in allocating about 10 % of portfolio for short term gains, after all there are small cycles within the big cycles, those small cycles are worth the study and may be some money could be made that way too.
I jumped into the MDCP recommendations at the end of May just as the DOW went crazy against all reason. Today I saw gold fall $20 and our gold stocks take a hit. So while waiting for the inevitable market fall, possibly a few recommendations to participate in short term trades would cut our losses during these bear market rallies.
Cheers.
Although I’m sticking with your long term bear perspective and consequent recommendations, I’m finding it increasingly difficult as so many others are realizing significant short term gains by getting back into the US and international equity market. It does make me wonder if I am going to wind up having to “buy high” to get on board with the market that keeps going up an up. Hope you’re more right than not!
50% of my investments are in stocks, gold, silver, oil, gas, and uranium with the balance in short term fixed income. Looking at China and India .
Inflation:Deflation. While I believe that the action of our government (and other governments) will eventually cause massive inflation, I do not believe that it will happen soon. Inflation is (or is caused by) too much money chasing available goods. While our governments actions are adding trillions to the money supply, the wealth destruction that has transpired in housing, stocks, commercial property, etc., as well as the decreased velocity of money, overwhelms that addition. I believe this will continue for a few years, which suggests that deflation will be the first order of the day.
Trading vehicles: The dollar-In the short term it is oversold and due for a bounce. In the longer term inflation will not necesarily cause the dollar to weaken because other currencies will reflect similar problems for their respective countries.
Precious metals. In the short term some weakness with deflation. In the very long term, much higher.
Stocks: While the current rally may continue for a few days or even a few months, stocks do not do well in periods of massive deflation (they make little money) nor do they do well in periods of massive inflation. In a few years I expect the S&P to be worth less than half of current valuations. A decrease of 75% would not surprise me.
I have been investing for over 40 years. I make my share of mistakes like all traders, but in general tend to trade in the correct direction.
Dr. Weiss
I am an investor who will choose long-term investments that are suited for the dominant trends of the economy and markets. To do otherwise is just too risky. Being an analytical person, I especially like hearing Claus Vogt’s methodology and reasoning when choosing an investment strategy for the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. His reasoning makes sense and helps explain what is really going on in the economy. And I also appreciate his and your honesty when you say investors need to be open-minded and sometimes change investments due to economic and market conditions.
Why are you giving us a choice between making money now and, in theory, making money later? What about an approach that recognizes the longer trends and positions for them but also attempts to benefit from short term swings? I think that you can be both types with different parts of your portfolio. There are many shades of gray between black and white.
I am a contrarian investor. I can not see WHY this market is going up. It just blows my mind.
Especially the crude oil ang gasoline prices on the NYNEX. Nevermind the Dow etc….
I am taking the advice from you and your talented staff,but still managed to lose most of my money over the last 12 months in other ways. However, I am bemused about my shares in SRS (ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE). I was told that it would gain as real estate tanked, but it continues to lose. Is it a bad fund manager, or was I wrong. SRS cost me $112 at the peak of the bubble in 2007, and although real estate continues to collapse, so does SRS. Should I sell before it becomes wothless, or hang on? My portfolio is turning around.
Accepting the condemnation it could produce, I’m still with the Greeks on both the fear of bear rally or socialist risk taking ‘ Everything in moderation’ makes sense to me. Balancing the risk employing only affordable and stop loss protected carefully monitored picks seems sensible rather than just waiting for the big shoe to drop. Hopefully they would at least cover the paper, but nagging losses, to keep faith with the ultimate bear bet.
On the socialism fear, living in one of those liberal (socialized) democracies that dominate most of the western world and especially the northern climates I like the balance of universal personal security and real opportunity that we all enjoy.
Hopefully we’ve traded as little as possible personal or corporate gain for the opportunity for everyone to reach their potential through the health and education needed but would be unnaffordable to far too many.
Perhaps, like more balanced market choices that are risky if not monitored and affordable, it just makes such sense that it is the primary glue that keeps the world’s most scattered, ethnically diverse population together as enthusiastic Canadians. In both cases, maybe the carefully considered risks are worth reasonable rewards..
I like to keep most of my money safe with the long term in mind and a portion that i feel comfortable with being aggressive with like gambling.
First- I want to preserve capital and its purchasing power
Next- I like your viewpoints and ways of doing things.
I have read your investment guides since the early 80’s and found you to be right enough of the time to count on your judgment now.
I have not been in the markets for several years primarily because I have invested in my own Pharmacies and real estate properties. My real estate is dong very well even in this bad market. Now I have sold the Pharmacies and have excess cash to save and grow.
Patients is a virtue, though slow, pays with accelerating dividends. An aside political comment:
It appeals to me that the degradation or our economic condition is a foreboding, trailing reflection or shadow of the twisting and disregarding the laws of freedom that once governed this land. As more people suffer the economic robbery of their means and way of life I fear that they will follow the example being set by those who now govern and will also make expediency the law that governs their action. Through history repeatedly this course has set groups of people against each other with terrible consequences because when people are made desperate laws become obstacles that can be ignored with the use of might. To me this is a mirror reflection of what we see those in power doing. They have no answers because they have discarded principles which leaves for them only expediency and this the nation in time will take as their own guide as they look to the example of their leaders.
I think one can do both short term and long term investments, each a % of the main pool. One mind can do both.
Timing the market for even medium term positions is being shown by Claus to be very difficult, when one takes up a logical position for the market to follow, BECAUSE the maket is not 100% logical, it’s greatly influenced by peoples mindsets, which are the things that make decisions.
Claus is building a position which in the end may be correct but money is being lost and he says this week is time to make a decision to bale out of the -ve ETF’s or not.
So is he about to bale out just before the bull market is reaching it’s creshendo, to walk away from his principals, and not further incease the -ve EFT position when it will do the most good, and not make the fortune predicted ?
What hope for the rest of us with medium term market fundamentals ?
I live in Australia, and the A$ has risen 28% against the US$ since March 9th so had I actually followed Claus and bought US shares I would be toast !
This has been a most interesting excercise in seeing how a good mind operates, but with the exchange rate going the wrong way it’s time for me to leave the club and wish you all well.
Cheers
John
I am itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend.
I agree with the body of comments that say that the best days (or just plain ‘days’) of America are behind it. We are following in the footsteps of the Roman, Spanish, and British empires — at best we are headed for irrelevance, at worst we are headed for destruction.
It’s ok by me but I’ll understand if you reject it as off the points.
I of course must disagree since Ibelieve , as always , my destiiny is tied to yours and
hopefully fear of socialism is a paranoia diversion that will only mar both of our futures.
This is a game changing moment that can literally save the world if we accept our realistic places in it rather than rejecting other options, or failing to consider compromise positions politically or economically.
most of the blogs I read seem to be willing to sit out this extended “bear rally”. luckily, I subscribe to several other letters and have picked up a few good ideas that have served to keep my head above water. I think you could have taken advantage of this run and come up with some stocks or etf’s that have a fair risk-return. perhaps it’s not too late. right?
I believe for some time that stocks are much too risky , now , in the recent past (1 year) and in the foreseeable future. Therefore I stick with ETF’s and mutual funds (like sector funds and foreign funds) and since I’m 74 years old, I can’t risk too much.
I am only 74% invested, but the other 26% are in China, India, Canada, emerging markets, energy, materials and natural resources which have all been quite profitable lately, even at my low level of commitment.
Thx to you, Martin, I have missed out on the “mother of all bear market “rallies (and possibly on a bull market recovery) since I believed your screaming headlines about the DOW at 4500 !! I also went into reverse ETF’s at that time – much too early; so I am losing a small fortune there as well. I also followed your Contrarian Portfolio, but luckily dumped SEF and SH within days, and note wrilythat Claus now says he may also be dumping these recommendations. Sorry to say, but I think the best days of Money and Markets are far behind us, as are the best days of the USA economy.
Hello Martin,
First I want to say how much I’ve appreciated and admired your views on the economy and global money matters since somewhere in the 80’s (I believe that your Dad was still around when I first subscribed).
I of course am very concerned about the path this country is taking both economically and politically. As a defense (and at the expense of yield) I am out of 90% of US and selected yield producing equities, trusts, etc. I keep active with very short-term plays using calls, puts and ETF’s. I coordinate my studies with your information and have kept my “fun money” invested and profitable, to the amazement of my friends.
When this market and our economy ultimately tanks as I see no justification for a viable alternative, I will probably have made some measurable money as I did when the whole mortgage thing went sour. At that point it will be like starting over but unlike many that I know, I will not have lost large amounts of former capital.
Keep up your good work,
Daniel Corson, Retired (Whidbey Island, WA)
Rather than let the current rally get away, I have been in Vanguards VGENX and VGPMX since they bottomed and have done quite nicely. Since both funds are commodities (Oil and Precious Metals), I don’t expect they will suffer long term from the reinflation which is bound to be in our future. TIPs, Inflation Protected Treasuries (VIPSX), appear relatively safe too.
I am a registered rep and I have been short the market and also long FAZ, SRS, SKF and also QID but these moves have been so violent latley that all my profits from 2008 have been wiped out on this recent up move latley. I see the big picture but it is quite discouraging staying on track after taking big paper loses. I keep going back to page 140 in your book about the bong colapse and how rates temp. surged and how you couldn’t figure out why because we where in deflation. I realize this could be what is happening now and all the hedge funds and quant funds are putting back on the inflation or reflation trades which is killing my holdings right now, but what scares me and making it hard to see the big picture is how long does it last. In your book you explained that rates surged (some to precrash levels ) and I don’t know if the recent rally from 2% to nearly 4% on the ten year could be considered a surge yet, and what happens to the market if the recent move up in rates is just the beginning rather then the end. Also the daily reset has been killing the inverse etf’s in a choppy market. So my answer to your question to your question is that Macro trends are what I like but 40% up micro trends (recent rally) might limit how much more I can hold clients and my self run out of money of get discourged
I’m a shorter term investor trying to ride the intermediate term waves.
Dr, Weiss: I fall into the second camp. A liberal who believes in Keynesian economics.
I do a lot of research on the markets and find your ideas very interesting. I have invested in some gold, silver and inverse ETF’s. I have always believed in Growth Stocks and staying
fully invested until Sept. ‘08. It is difficult to sell your entire portfolio when you have.
huge paper losses. I read everything that comes out from your website and agree with
a lot of your hypotheses! I believe interest rates will be higher by Oct. and I am looking
for a way to play this. Thanks for what you do.
Dr. C. Bostic
great job with these surveys.It means alot to me that you want to understand your clients feelings.I am in the second camp of trading the immediate or apparent trend in spite of the risks.That is what trailing stops are for.I had to move money from my one advisor who introduced me to your service.I was fortunate to participate in that crazy rally by utilizing a technical trading strategy. I still maintain long bearish positions as a hedge while being short term bullish in other areas ie commodities.Theory and reality are sometimes oxymorons.thank you, Martin
Martin,
We are very concerned about our currency. What happens to the money we have in short term treasuries and in the stock market if the dollar goes away due to Obama’s spending frenzy? We could end up with a new currency. Thank you so much for all the help your team provides.
Al & Bobbie Blackburn
The American Spirit is well and is ready to bring this great country back to it’s feet. We
have suffered many times… it is time to get back to the basics this country was founded on. We are a young nation, mistakes are being made. The USA will come
back strong, the road to recovery is going to be longer than most people think. A
penny saved is a penny earned. It is time for this statement to be made to all Americans…. Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for
your country. J F K said it in the 60,s… it needs to be said many times going forward. We need much less goverment. Our free Capitalist system will prevail……
Right now I’m doing both.
I prefer to be a long term investor so I don’t have to sit in front of this computer for 2-3 hours each day.
I want to take advantage of rallys within the up coming down trend, so I’ll also be invested in copper, coal and oil when the time is right. Tomorrow I will sell my current position in coal and oil.
It would be nice if Weiss Research could provide recommendations on short term investments while in a downtrend, but I understand this may take additional effort on the company unless WR Inc is doing this in their other investment programs. I also subscribe to Larry Edelson’s newsletter for a second opinion.
Martin,
I have been an investor in the stock market since 1985. I have been a reader of yours for about 7 years now. Prior to finding your advice, it was a dark and dreary task trying to manage the funds properly. Usually, a losing proposition (Thanks Merrill Lynch…). Your data, and analysis of that data has always been truthful, and very helpful. So, thanks so much for being there for us. I subscribe to Safe Money, and I am also in the Contrarian Portfolio. You have saved me tens of thousands of dollars over the years, and I thank you for that. There is only onesmall favor I would like to ask of your research team, and that is to provide Safe Money readers more insight on timing. I can’t tell you how many times I have lost money by placing high risk put and call options or buying ultra ETF’s at exactly the wrong time. Now that I look back on the months of March and April it’s pretty obvious to have been expecting a rally. I should have waited on some of those bets, and so now I sit biting my nails I might get some of that money back.
What I am asking is that you continue with the wonderful “Big Picture” insight you provide us with, but also add a dash of the other side of the story in a very fickle animal – the stock market.
What kind of investor am I? I pay good money for insightful information, so I can make aggressive plays that will build my portfolio. I am not passive, and I do not trust my Edward Jones broker as far as I can throw him – and he’s a lot bigger and younger than I am.
I do trust you and your colleagues very much, and make all of my investments with your recommendations. (My portfolio is plus 14% per year for the last three years). The account that Edward Jones manages is minus 25% – and would have been much worse had I not aggressively pulled the plug on the typical “stay the course” model they follow.
In any event, you give us confidence and arm us with pertinent information.
Thanks,
Steve C
I appreciate the longer term trends you have predicted rather well. This most recent “bear market rally” is however to much of an oppurtunity to pass up with at least a portion of my risk capital. Any insight you can pass on regarding the sectors, probable length or targets before the long term trends reassert themselves in wonderful information.
Martin;
I’m playing both stratergies. I’m following your ‘Million $ Contrarian Portfolio’ for the long term; & still playing ‘Bear Mkt.’ rallies for the short term. For example, I bought AIG on 3-2-09, & sold it 3-18-09 (a 162% gain in 16 days).
Larry Edelson says the bear market rally still has a long way to go.
In that case I want be aggresive and trade it long and go short later.
You say to go short now because the rally is near top,I don`t no who to beleave.
Ma rtin the way to go is gold and maybe silver. it is evident to me the country and the dollar are going down how far i wish i knew thank you
absolute aggressive, not reckless,
Martin,
I’m following the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio with the vast majority of my money. However, I also have a separate small percentage set aside which I use for speculative trades in junior gold miners. THE MCP is my bread and butter and I am following your advice 100% and I am very pleased with the insight and overall big picture you and Claus give. For the junior miners, I realize many of these can go to zero, but hopefully one or two will pay off handsomely. I realize it’s not a strategy for everyone though. Keep up the great work…
It is difficult to see the horizon when your bobbing in the waves. I believe that it is possible to invest in both the short term waves, while simutaneously investing in the longer term trends. This is not inconsistent with the observations made by Claus and yourself, but it does require a high degree of disciple, as well as diversity in investment vehicles. Patience, analysis, decisiveness, nerves of steel and humility are required; I really like the detailed analysis provided by Claus for the benefit of us M$Portfolio subscribers.
Dear Martin,
I am on board the contraian portfolio, and enjoyed reading Claus on the current economic mess, and have placed recommended positions.
I know the conservative view is to avoid bearmarket rallies as these are often sharp and short. However the current business cycle length as measured from real estate peak to peak, and the recession length, and current market rally length, all seem much longer than we have been used to.
Moreover the latest news in Australia is that we had small growth in the March quarter and the Australian dollar has moved very strongly from lows in the 60s to 80s recently, which is a very large move, and our official reserve bank interest rates at 3% still leaves some room to provide furhter assistance to the economy.
Also major US indexes having reached their 200 day SMA, even though the SMA is falling, is likely to get more mutual fund buying.
So with these in mind I would like to see us trade shorter term in both directions following shorter term weekly market momentum.
I would think
I am not really sure how to answer the question about what kind of an investor I am because it is becoming more and more apparent that the market doesn’t necessarily perform rationally. I see no reason for the market to be going up, but there can be no doubt that it has even in the face of the dark clouds on the horizon. Perhaps folks see those dark clouds as being so far in the distance that they will take cover before the storm hits. I read somewhere that Keynes once noted that the market can stay irrational longer than an investor or a business can stay solvent.
For example, in speaking to another investor I learned that he had purchased Amazon at $78 and I wondered why he would purchase a stock that was selling for 48 times earnings but it turns out that that shortly after his purchase, the stock went to $82 and was now selling for over 50 times earnings. Go figure. He still made over $4 per share on his trade. It doesn’t make sense to me, but it is a good example of how irrational the market can be.
When I questioned him about the threat of inflation, he pointed to the Treasury’s purchase of bonds as a way of controling the rate of inflation. He then used some term that I never heard before. Something like quantative measuring ??? I probably have that wrong but I wrote it down in my office and will have to check it again.
Anyhow, is it irrational to take advantage of the irrationality of others???
Dear Mr. Weiss:
I have only one or two balls in the game and am strangely enough concerned with the general direction downward to a market oblivion, yet hopeful that enough of my initial investment will survive so that better goods can be bought later. Isn’t that about the
trend in much of the much discussion now on the internet?
My interest is in maintaining a portfolio allocated to both long and short term gains. However, I’m uncomfortable with the current market and won’t be surprised to see a substantial pullback. So at risk of foregoing profits if I’m wrong and the market continues to move up, I’ve liquidated at least 1/2 my portfolio and plan to sell more. Waiting for the next opportunity is a lot easier when cash is your biggest holding.
Martin, I am 85 years old and of course not necessarily interested in very long term investments. I have currently gone back into the market using ETF’s and Funds. Two thirds of my remaining retirement money is in a Money Market Fund. The future doesn’t look too bright at my stage of the game. I’m hoping Obama’s direction is partly right.
Joe J.
Yes, I am tempted to take some risks in the up market, but following the advice of another truely great analyst, who seems good only in up markets, lost me approximately $1000 in a very short time recently so I know it is risky. I have said before I view this contrarian portfolio as more of an insurance policy against disaster, not a get rich quick scheme. Equally important to me is the education I am getting from you, Klaus, and these blogs are wonderful. My thing is simulating portfolios and comparing different analysts results. Portfolios that will make money in a roaring Bull market are a dime a dozen, anyone can do that, I even did it. What Klaus is attempting to do is really hard, and I put real money in his portfolio. One other (simulated) portfolio within the Weiss world impresses me, by the way: the “worry free retirement” portfolio has been doing very well in this up market. I might use it if there is a recovery someday but probably not in a bear market rally. Yes, missing the rally hurts but I got killed in other crashes and if I had been fully invested when the last crash happened that would have hurt a lot more. I credit familia Weiss for saving me that agony.
I BELIEVE WE’RE IN FOR AN UNUSUAL UP AND DOWN MARKET, BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE UPWARD. I AM INVOLVED IN MOSTLY GOOD MUTUAL FUNDS WHERE YOU GET AN AVERAGE GAIN OR LOSS. MY PLAN IS TO LEAVE WHAT I HAVE ALONE. I’M NOT WILLING TO TAKE A LOSS FOR THE MOMENT. I’M GOING TO HANG IN THERE. MY LIVELIHOOD DOES NOT DEPEND ON THE ACTION OF THE STOCK MARKET.
One more thought: in trying to explain to my grandson what contrarian investors are he interrupted me and said, “So they buy when prices are low and sell when they are high”. Right. That wasn’t so hard was it?
Martin, I agree with your fundamental analysis of the economy but the market is not listening to you. I am the type of investor that believes in being flexible enough to capitalize on what the market is doing now, and nimble enough to be able to change with the current. I have lost money taking the advice of a currency Guru that wouldn’t let go of his stubborn belief that no matter how bad things got for the US dollar, the other world currencies would be that much worse off. I took advice from another Guru and have now been holding an inverse ETF since November that is only going to pay off if the Russel 2000 crashes. In the mean time I’m holding a good size paper loss. It is great to have strong fundamental beliefs but this market doesn’t always share those beliefs. I would like to get advice based on what the market is doing and not what it is supposed to be doing. As far as what I’ve invested in lately, I have some January call options on the ETF SLV and some shares of a mid sized gold mining company. I agree that commodities should do well in the type of economy we are in or will be in if your predictions hold true.
Call me crazy, but I’m the kind of investor who doesn’t like to lose money. Yes, your dire predictions may be right long-term, but short-term a 40% jump in stock market indexes is something I expect “experts” — especially those who charge for their services — to inform me ahead of time.
I am the sailor and I plan to wait out the storm and as soon as the sun begins to shine, we will take stock of our situation and then move to get back to normal ASAP. I am in my 80’s so I will want to make quick wins, but keeping my risks low. Is that impossible? Maybe, but we’ll see when the sun begins to shine.
Dear Martin W.,
I anticipate a sound trumping of the status quo. The SEC will be hard pressed to justify the reams of paper loop holes. These have made it easy to justify larceny. And, there are many who can just lose in the ‘false economy’ where values are traded on fables of manipulation. There’s exploitation of savings despite insurance.
Sound money practices are not justified by the possibility of beating the game. Rather sound money practices should guarantee a reasonable return and at the same time build streams of opportunity and venture capital. Obama and Congress are on the stump. The question is: are they smart enough to understand Social-Economics?
This is not the time to be greedy so, if I get in, I get out early. Most of what I have is waiting to be invested, for a real pullback.
What fun it would be to hve enough money to buy and sell according to your advise.
But, I do not have extra cash to do that, so I must be serious and correct when I purchase stocks. They must give me income, and I am, not permitted to trade due to age.
martin I alsohateto miss a 20% short term rally with a small 10% of my ira funds.
Even if i only caught 12% of the rally thats still 3 years of t-bond yield of 4% and only took 3 mos.!!
I would like to invest in order to beat inflation and still generate some income for my retirement. I prefer to go with the trend and fundamentals and stay with my trades as long as the trend lasts. Economic indicators are contracting, interest rates cannot go much lower any more, debt burden is still there, unresolved. This cannot be long term bullish for stocks and bonds.
I am not a short term trader, do not pay that much attention to the markets during the day, see the tape on Bloomberg TV early in the morning, check it at lunch time on the internet and then again at night. I realize that there is still a lot of money waiting to be invested and more people are getting “sucked” into the stock market every day and this fuel the bear market rally. It’s a bubble ready for another bust as long as the economic indicators are contracting.
Anthony.
First of all, I want to thank you for your insight last year which caused me to exit the market before all hell broke lose. I actually made 9% last year. But I made it by riding the short term rallies. When the DOW hit 6500 in March this year, another e-mail from you predicted an imminent global collapse. I exited again, but so far this has been the bottom. All the way up you’ve been sending out doom and gloom e-mails. Kind of reminds me of something you said: you have to be brave enough to get back in when things look hopeless. No one can say for sure that bottom will be tested again. With the DOW up about 2300 points, I’m not happy about missing this rally. To me, it seems there’s just as much risk betting on the downside as there is catching a rally on the upside. As a member of the MCP I would definitely like a shorter term perspective.
I favor the etf for gold and silver. Use covered calls for the gold and long term for silver, hoping the 30:1 ratio re-establishes itself. I like the long term trend with moderate stops.
Also, in april, I subscribed to the 12% portfolio which I reached from you site. I have not received any of the promised e’mails, and the site I gave my credit card to has not responded to inquiries.
Should I go through the credit card and claim fraud. Can you intercede? So far this seems like a scam. Not what I expected from your site.
Joe
I am a trader and I do not believe in long term holding of any stock or ETF. Everthing changes all the time. I try to buy low and sell high to make profit.
To me, the best way to make money in stock market for right now is buy some inverse ETFs and wait until the stock market at bottom, then jump in.
Dear Martin,
Just in case you are wrong about the market going lower, at what higher level in the S&P will you cover your shorts? Lets face it….no one can pretend the market direction with certainty. The only thing that is certain is that the market is always right.
Martin,
I make money on trading. I will starve and become a bull in a china shop if I have to wait while profits pass by. There was a huge run up in profits, which, in a normal bull rally would probably not amount to this much in this short time space.
You have the resources to safely advise your subscribers when to get in and when to get out. If I was advised to buy for only 2 weeks in this rally, I would have doubled my money.
Financials you advised against, but BAC trippled in value. I am from Canada, all the banks went up over 50% and Manulife at $8.00 Canadian then is $24.00 today.
While I understand your position, you need to understand that we need to make money. Not the reckless, quick, overnight type, but Claus knew the market was due for a rally and could have advised as such.
I do hope Claus will do well for us as I do respect his insight into the fundamentals. Gold was great.
So to answer your question: I need to make money as a trader and I depend on your advise to do so.
Thank you.
I like to think in terms of a further portfolio allocation. In my case 75% long term and 25% counter/hedge. We follow the Contrarian recommendations in the hedge section. Reducing risk in the long term portion means more cash and fixed income. Notwithstanding the lower contrarian forecast, i believe it likely that the near term market bottoms are in the 6000 Dow range due to the large amount of cash already on the sidelines.
We were very liquid and are now averaging back toward our target into the market in the long term section.
Dear Dr. Weiss, Thank you for all the good advice in “Money and Markets,” “Dividend
Superstars,” your survival book, and the webcasts. It has given me peace of mind to
follow your suggestions in an attempt to weather the financial storms. Your father’s
financial success during the Depression is very impressive and adds credibility to your
warning to today’s investors. My earliest childhood memories were of people who would today be considered poor but who were rich in spirit and prevailed in spite of their
hardships. Let us hope that if we have another depression this will be the case again. My sincere thanks for your help. Melba Sport
.
I’m bullish on SELECTED commodities. Even when (not if) the markets take the next dive, I believe that foundational commoditities may drop a little, but recover, and grow rapidly even if the market takes years to come back.
Dr. Weiss,
There is a third category: The investor/trader who wishes to take full advantage to the extent possible of playing the bear rallies and to exploit the resumption of the major, dominant bear downtrend. I realize timing is critical and very difficult to accomplish.
I expect most of one’s portfolio will be conservative and in liquid assets (perhaps, foreign money mkt ETF), but with the speculative portion, measured risk positions can be taken to go long on the bear rallies w/tight stops while also positioning with some inverse ETFs on sectors/indexes/bubble Treasuries,dollar, etc. plus long on gold, silver, mining stocks (both explorers and the producers, leaning more to the juniors). I think use of reliable risk models that can allegedly signal high potential for a market reversal from the bear rallies might be used to “time” the resumption to the major down trend.
I enjoy your newsletters, emails, and the Safe Money Report. Thanks to all your team for the excellent guidance during this once in a lifetime CRISIS/Opportunity event. I hope to be amongst those who survive but expect very turbulent and dangerous years ahead with many casualties along the way.
Long term I accumulate (since 2003) gold/silver coins and bullion. I have junior mining stocks since 2000. These types of investments are “defensive” and “offensive” in nature. I am an aggressive/speculative investor and trade most positions with options.
Short term, I am willing to play biotechs (was hot today Wed 6/3/09) due to Nobama’s penchant for stem cell research. I am willing to play other sectors that will benefit from Nobama’s largesse with taxpayers’ monies (poor us taxpayers), and have a slight bias for natural resources and commodity stocks only due to the fact that China, India, etc. will continue to grow and be the driver for raw materials. I am bearish on the US, on Nobama’s socialist agenda, on the incompetence and political bent of Geithner, Bernanke and the corrupt politicians, exception Ron Paul and a few of the ‘good guys’.
I have various worst case scenarios and I hope to protect myself, family, and friends from them. As such, I would urge people to read some material on survivalist strategies, incl. learning use of guns. Stockpiling foodstuffs (MREs, canning, etc.), and learning how to be self-sufficient in the countryside should also be factored in. I would also encourage investors to input “geopolitical risks” that can be the catalyst for a swift, and sudden collapse by this country. Energy and water issues should be serious matters to consider. No, I am not a dyed in the wool gold bug or survivalist. Extensive reading and research in the last 9 years or so have led me to certain conclusions that warrant some action in the direction I have sketched out above. Read Pastor Jerry Robinson’s Bankruptcy of the Nation, published March 2009. Pastor Robinson is an economist that happens to pastor a church in Tulsa, OK. He has written one of many good books, such as yours Dr. Weiss, on the Coming Economic Crisis and how to prepare for it.
Good luck to all the readers and followers of Money and Markets. Semper paratus.
As an immigrant, I have learn to love this Country and it breaks my heart to see what is happening. I don’t concider myself as”an investor” maybe a trader and at this time, I wouldn’t
be a “long-term investor” . I wish I could have a bit of Your Father’s wisdom to take adventage of what is jet to be awaiting for Us. Martin, You have been there for Us on these hard times and We appreciate that. We keep on learning from You and we are making better decisions and
for that We salute You.
Ed
I’m a long term investor and a proponent of Gold & Silver as well as the Austrian school of economics. First and foremost is to abolish the banking cartel known as the Federal Reserve. Auditing it is just not enough. It must be abolished and only an act of Congress can do it. As long as the Fed remains, the financial situation will be hopeless. Just look at the history since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the IRS at about the same time. (no coincidence there?). The US dollar has lost ~95% of its purchasing power since then. Now we elected a Marxist president and Marxism is exactly what we are getting.
Unlike many of your readers, I am very cautious and my primary aim is to avoid big losses. I sold all of my USA stocks some years ago. The deciding factor – I telephoned my broker and asked him to get the sensitivities to oil prices the Ford analyst had used in his recommendation of Ford stock. (This was before the crazy rise in oil prices.) The broker told me that the analyst would hang up on him if he asked a question like that – he had used the broker’s official prediction for oil prices. When, shortly later, Ford bought back a large chunk of stock, after promising never to do it again, because the company was too cyclical, I decided to get out of the market. I have not been back into to USA stock market since, and have the money I received in Australian Real Estate, (retail), which gives me a steady 10% yield. (I am Australian.)
I will consider buying USA stocks again when there are fewer cowboys in the market, and more important, fewer cowboys in the government doing things like invading Iraq and Afghanistan.
There are an enormous number of investment opportunities, and right now I am sticking to those where I know a great deal about what I am buying, and what the risks and returns will be.
You do not fight the fundamentals!
You adapt your style to the Market and your capabilities.
You place your major bets with the trends and you trade on opportunity.
You do not plan to be successful all the time but most of the time – risk tolerance is required to be successful in this environment.
Have faith in your decisions and accept your mistakes and get on with life.
You limit your greed.
Hopefully you have an opportunity to help others who may not be as fortunate.
I am particpating in the Contrarian Portfolio, but also taking advantage of the present rally. I am investing in gold, silver and mining companies, commodities and cherry picking opportunities such as INT, GMCR etc.
Looking forward to do well with the Contrarian Portfolio.
Fernando
Hello Martin and thank you for your inquiry. I have invested in the past for the long term when possible. I have also played the quick buck method of taking advatage of the short term. I have dabbled in World Currencys, Options and Inverse ETF’s and Emerging markets both with a mix of ETF’s and individuals stocks. I have traveled to Brazil twice in the last 4 years and I am a beliver that Sugar cane ethanol can play an important part and be a vey good investment if the govornment would admit the the EROEI for Sugar Cane derived ethanol is a win win situation for the greater majority. Of course thier will be those with lobbyist that will fight this tooth and nail.
I am now am part of the Million Dollar Contarian Portfolio and I am quite satisfied with taking the Pateint and methodical approach. I do not think at this point time that it is worth the Risk for a qiuck reward approach in this Economic Climate. There does come a time to live life and take care of ones health.
I think that the policys the govornment is following are unwise. I yearn for the America I was born and raised to believe in. Real free markets, an honest system of Banking or at the very least an accountable system with much more constraints.
The govornment is too big and too full of self serving interest. As Ludwig Von Mises stated, ” when evaluating history, loof or “Cuo Bono” or who benefits, specifically Pecuniarily. The Nanny state is well entrenched, but I reamain hopeful.
I think that if they intend to print fiat money and monetize the debt at the amounts needed it will really damage the country financially but aslo philosphically. We will have truly lost our compass both morally and philisophically.
I feel patience is the way I prefer to play this market and to follow the Contrarian creed, “Often wrong, but never in doubt.” I feel that Gold will be a must to own as the ultimate protection against the worst scenario.I do believe that with patience and a willingness to be flexible will pay off. I do not think the risk of going for the short trem is worth the potential risk when they pull the plug on this countertrend rally. It may be swift.
I think select companys will do well at the right time, and commoditys will do well, but that too may need to take a back seat to the longer trend and deflation followed inevitably by inflation and worse case Hyperinflation will be inevitable unless the govornment changes course. I feel that Asia and south East Asia and not just China at the right time will hold promise. I like the Precious metals and I think when the time is right, that bonds will be a deliver high yields with surviving Blue Chip Companys.
I feel that we manay will need thier own whell barrows to by thier loaf of bread if this goes too far.Lastly, what freedoms is it that our troops are supposed to be fighting for?
Thank you for your inquiry,
James Hall
I am BOTH kinds of an investor! Aside from cash, I have allocated a portion to your 1 Million Contrarian Portfolio which is obviously a bearish kind. But I am also actively trading another portion of my portfolio using advice of other experts/firms, i.e. I am trying to take an advantage of the shorter term opportunities as well.
Markets never go in straight line, so it is expected that they’ll go both up and down even if a longer term trendline is more even. Why not take an advantage of the current opportunities with a portion of your funds that you can afford to risk? Besides, being ONLY bearishly invested during bullish streaks will CERTAINLY result in a “paper loss”. Why not take the same risk and play the bullish run in a bullish way, and take short term profits along the way? There will be at least some chance of a gain at such periods.
I would prefer to hire someone to do this active trading job for me. I have inquired with Weiss’s portfolio management branch last summer, but they could offer only the same bearish programs. I’d like to see you diversified into more active short term trends trading.
Thanks!
I think I am in the middle of the two positions. I want to take advantage of the current variances in the market, while minimizing the downside, but prepare for long term systemic change that will come.
Despite the realization that the fundamentals are totally out of sync with the 35% – 40% run-up of the market since March, and the awareness that it is very likely a strong bull market within a bear market, I find it difficult to remain totally on the sidelines. Consequently, I’ve participated in the commodities run-up by having purchased some substantial agriculture and metals companies at depressed prices. I believe, over time, this sector shall continue to grow significantly, due to the food and infrastructure building needs of China, India and other emerging countries. If there is a pull-back, I am convinced that the uptrend will reignite, even if several months down-the-line.
At the other end of the spectrum, I have followed much of the advice in your Contrarian Portfolio which is a rational outgrowth of the current fundamentals. With Money Market Treasuries, gold and TBT as an ultra short on long-term Treasuries, plus an inverse ETF on commodities, I am trying to remain grounded, buttressing my more aggressive positions.
Investing was all a lot easier before the debacle of 2008. It’s now a much more challenging environment, and it requires constant vigilance and a willingness to make radical changes, if necessary.
Thank you, Martin Weiss, for your intelligent and highly-researched information. I shall be reading your book in the very near future. In the meanwhile, I have your guidance per your webcasts and many e-mails, plus the Contrarian Portfolio.
Gabrielle
At the same time I have made many purchases of the Contrarian Portfolio because I realize how valuable that outlook is. Actually, at the moment I’m straddling both camps. Since I have been very cautious in choosing commodities, and have protective positions, I believe that I shall not be vulnerable to a major sell-off. And, even if so, I can either sell quickly, or preferably, await that segment’s re-emergence.
It’s all very irrational, but it’s very difficult to stay totally on the sidelines. Also, gold positions and others from The Contrarian Portfolio are protective.
i am content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that i’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
I agree 100% on the views of mill $ contraion thought’s we cannot ignore these factors
(1) auto business (American banks) foreign trade, etc
all in the tank
Printing so much money that the am$ is at great risk
You make a convincing argument that we’re in a long term bear market and that this is a bear market rally. But the bulls make a pretty equally convincing argument that this rally is for real and that the improvements we’re seeing are real (and they cite many indicators and events). While I am waiting for the bear to resume and to use inverse ETFs to profit, as you recommend, I would like to try to trade this apparently unsinkable rally in the short term and to participate in the long term in the off chance that the bulls turn out to be right.
Dear Advisors : Please Give your advice to both ‘camps’ : I personally do not want to try to play a temporary bear market rally, but I would like to see your advice on that stategy anyway. I believe the market will go down, and I am almost 80 % short.
Also, if this rally continues, why shouldn’t I just keep my inverse ETF’s ?Why should I throw in the towel? Thank you.
Trying to catch the ups or downs of this market is like trying to catch smoke. I’m relying on Claus to prepare us for the next leg down, or up, as the case may be.
I have no reason yet to question his advice.
As a British reader I have been unable to take full advantage of all your offerings, however the fundamental principles you espouse apply to the UK as in the US…so thank you for all your sound advice. I am sure that free democratic economies will always prevail as they adjust to changes in the world’s trading patterns; the issue is how quickly and which sectors/companies will rise and what will fall. Even now there are companies/ individuals with fascinating prospects operating in mature markets and large established companies with good medium/ long term prospects as well as areas of innovation that will provide solutions to some of the worlds problems.
The challenge is to remain balanced in any portfolio of investments and a significant proportion of cash instruments can only be prudent in any risky environment.
Or are you itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend?
This is more in line with my thinking…..
Basically, in most matters, facts speak for themselves. The facts are that, in any severe bear market, there are sustained rallies with the potential for great gains. In the Great Depression, a bear market rally rose 50%. Yes, the rally ended in a downturn that set a new low. But, surely, one would hate to miss that 50% gain!
Our bear market rally has added over 40% (equivalent to 3 1/2 years of having a 12% gain each year (a percentage gain that is viewed as typical for investors). And, my own portfolio increased by 76% since March first (a gain partly due to holding two stocks that tripled in price across that time period). My 76% gain is equal to 6 1/3 years of having 12% gains per year. Those facts speak for themselves.
We live in a computer age, with on-line accounts that cost me only $7 for each trade I make. This is another fact. And this fact allows me to buy and sell stocks at very low cost…plus allowing me to get into and out of those stocks very quickly. So I am not in danger of suddenly losing a huge amount of money when the market changes from this bear market rally to continue its downturn.
All of these facts speak to me as I, with NO ANXIETY, enjoy taking advantage of market conditions, and adjust my holdings as market conditions change.
I am a long term investor, short term seems to be too volatile. Trying to comprehend stock market stock talk and I am learning slowly.
Petra
Australia
I’m doing both types of investing. I read Larry Edelson, Tony Segami, Nilus Mattive, Claus V., Byran Rich and Dr. Weiss’ articles. All have been wonderful resouces for investing. Their guidance has proven to be strong in these most difficult of times. These men have spent their lives in their particular avenues of investing and are experts.
Neither and Both.
The dominant part of my capital is kept in “low risk” investments such as interest paying accounts instant access accounts, in 3 different currencies.
About a third is used for other investments, funds, commodities, ETFs, Stock. Whilst I find your overall assesment of the economy excellent and I believe in your long term forecasts, applying them has so far (in the short term) has not proven beneficial.
I did not sign up to your contrarian portfolio as I am UK based and make most of my investments in £ and Nok.
Regards
Ray Pratt
Martin, give me your opinion as to why this would not work. To stimulate recovery in a short few years. NO taxes at all. Protect the family and citizens with a fixed national mortgage rate of 3% or lower. If banks can’t cut it let them be federalized. Charge a “service” or “Liberty” charge on the buy or sell side of 5% or total of 10%. This is to be collected by the all states with each state retaining 70% and 30% to be remitted to the federal government. All sales, wages, products, imports, exports, loans, stock, bonds and investments will be assessed the 10% to be divided on the buy or sell side. Don’t you think that the returns to the states and fed be exponential as these funds would be collected more frequently than usual taxes as with personal income taxes on a yearly basis.
For me the market is too volatile to trade on a daily basis (and it takes up too much time). I’d rather be positioned in line with longer term trends. I believe that the market is nowhere near a bottom, so I’m betting on the downside and keeping about 50% in cash equivalents. The time to be “all in” has not arrived yet.
Hi Martin ,I follow your articles from South Africa ,must say I appreciate and enjoy your guidance .Thank you for effort.Regards Alann
Hi Martin,
What we are locked into now, is the ‘planned’ demise of the $…Your experts are doing everything to shoot themselves in the foot ! Two world wars have destroyed all the
‘Colonial’ currencies making the $ the worlds reserve currency. So with all these eggs in one basket ‘they’ are now pulling the bung on the $…………say ‘hello’ to the new socialist order.
I read your latest email to me. I talk to the best investors in the world. Wether you believe it or not. I saw many comments from posters to your blog in your latest email.
Basically you are right, not many can grasp what is happening. There are options though for an investor. This would be for a very skilled investor, which many of your readers are not, sorry no disrespect to them or you sir.
Its just the truth. You will never post this message to others, because I know what you know. Well not really, do not want to be more than I am. I love your Safe Money Report. I send it to some of the best investors in the world to read.
They all use the same data as you. So its about how you interput info.
I am not better than you or anyone else. We are all the same.
Right now I am short the markets, soon to short emerging markets. A good bit of my money for the last 5 years in short term T-Notes and trading currencies daily. 10% of all profits goes to precious metals and hedge funds. Soon some will go to oil in the next year for the long term.
I wrote you a personal email about 8 months ago, but never got a reply. Wanted to share something with you from one of my friends Marc Faber. To late now.
Anyways, thanks for all that you do. Your a good man. I have aligned myself with the best that know of what is going on in the market at any given time for the last 15 years. Martin, you are new on my list over the last year.
Take care, DL Ford
Dear Martin and Associates:
Preservation of my capital, which is very little compared to your million dollar portfolio, is my major concern. However, getting it to grow to permit me to meet unexpected expenses, like recent a/c repairs that my retirement income will not cover, is a necessity or I will run out of savings all together. I feel so confident in your ability to read and respond to the markets that I am following your advice to the letter. I am very grateful for all you are doing to educate people and help us to not sink with the majority. I love the contrarian label. Contrarian thinking takes you outside the box and makes you a rarity. Someone I can follow even though I cannot think things through like you. May God be with you, give you His wisdom and discernment, and cause our countrymen to return to the Judeo/Christian values of our founding fathers that made our nation so great.
Blessings,
dh
Dear Martin,
I am an overseas investor.
The thing that perplexes me is that most of the market comprises of short term speculation, so in effect the majority of the market just speculates ( bets against the odds ). with pensions and savings at stake, betting for, or against the odds.
To my mind many of the world’s problems can be laid at the feet of the speculator be he professional or amateur. It is the era of the “quick Buck” and amazing capital gains or losses.
As an INVESTOR I would prefer to invest in a company with good products and sound management that pays a decent dividend in relation to its market price. I know that it sounds pedantic – but I am tired of speculators who bedevil the market in their quest for capital gains at any price.
Having said so; I have entered the USA market and purchased Pfizer and Bristol Myers as medium term investments and then made use of GLD to shore up my US$ and have purchased SDD, TWM and MZZ to retain the value of my investments when the market invariably corrects.
I have kept 75% of my USA$ offshore in cash and am waiting for the time when I can invest it, to obtain reasonable returns in a stabilized market.
The correct timing is however is very important to me (15% off the bottom of the market) and only once the ” bad apples have been shaken off the tree.”
America will survive, but the irresponsible printing of notes worries the hell out of me!
Martin:
I’ve sat in some inverse funds without a stop and have gotten clobbered. I truly believe the storm is coming I just fear the way this Government has meddled in the market that they’ll come up with some sort of short selling ban and nail me on both directions.
I am making small pots of money on a daily basis trading in near the bottom and riding out near the top of daily share waves.
27 consecitive wins in just over a month, no losses.
If it was my only income it would however not be enough to support me but comes as a welcome supplement.
My pension funding accounts are divided as Safe Trend and Strategic (thematic and adventurous). Hence, I am interested in both long and short term investing.
For information, across the accounts, they are fairly equally allocated as Cash, Matched Risked and Commodities (mostly Gold & instruments).
I have found MoneyandMarkets to have been of great service to me and people I know and I thank you.
I suppose , like most investors, I am a little of both kinds of investor. I want to earn something now and am willing to wait for other longer term investments to bear fruit. The problem is to know the difference. We keep hearing that buy-and-hold strategies are dead, but there’s little else unless it’s day trading, and everyone seems to think that’s very dangerous right now. WHAT TO DO ??? That’s where you come in, Martin. Some advice about buy and hold against quick trades will help a lot. Many thanks for all your terrific insights. It’s helpful just to know you’re always there for us.
Dear Martin
For many years now we all have spent more than we have earned, and this is how we got into this mess. Now our governments (I live in Australia) have decided that spending tomorrows earnings is going to fix our problems. This simply does not compute. Add to this little issues like global warming and carbon trading and the simply fact that oil supplies are ultimately a finite resource and the bottom line can only mean TROUBLE. I believe that we ain’t seen nothing yet and consequently I have disposed of all shares I owned except gold related shares. I am quite happy to wait for what I believe will be a sharp fall on the stock market to buy back the right shares at the right price. Here in Australia I don’t quite understand inverse ETFs and I make a point of never investing in anything I don’t understand, but I will work on that.
Cheers
Hank
Dear Martin
I have been reading your e-mails for quite a while and whilst I agree with much of what you say I find it difficult as a kiwi living in the uk and mainly investing in Australia to get whether your comments about America apply to the rest of the world.
In the past the Australian market seems to track the Dow but will Australia hold up this time round because its economy is based on two things other countries needs resources/energy and food.
I read your advice a while ago saying the market was going to tank and to get out and then that the Dow was going to go to 10000 and now you are going to invest a million bucks in contrarian investments.
To be fair I have not paid you for any advice so I can’t expect that you will give all your tips on the e-mails I get but then are your contrarian investments only in the US.?
Also I think that Obama is in a tricky position apart from being a different colour to what your used to but at the moment I would trust him more than I did the previous administrations (especially with climate change protecting the environment and treating people as human beings not terrorists just because they are islam or muslim) America under Bush created this problem by seeking revenge for the twins towers and blaming Saddam as he couldn’t get at Al-Qaeda rather than seeing it as the effect of previous causes and seeing that that the attack was the revenge for all the previous policies and mistakes but unfortunately the people advising him are the same that were advising before. Its funny if you win a war then your a hero sadly for Bush & Blair not in this case or if you lose your a war criminal which they all are of course. And of course the oil and whatever else rumour thinks he thought was there.
Either way sooner or later if they get the economy wrong it will fall over right itself and get back to the greedy making lots of money and the the others just trying to provide for their families and their retirement getting squashed in the rush.
However I would be interested to know when you think inflation is going to kick back in in America and whether this will trigger arise in interest rates around the world straight away or will it click in depending on how the economies in each country are situated at the time. Being that it semms like the US had this proble quite a while before it hit the rest of the world.
Anyway If you had to remortgage now would you take the gain of a tracker in uk usually 2-3% above the base and bet that the recession is going to stay around and interest rates are going to stay down or take a 5 year fixed and bet that within the next year the rates are going to start rising again at which time the fixed rates on offer will be higher than they are now.
I’m not that au fait with the share market and wouldn’t like to lose what little I have. However I remember advice through my life from my father who was a believer in gold and land as security in times like this. People have to eat! food is a basic commodity when things get really bad, which they will, as it’s expected. Remember the power of prayer , no matter who or what your belief system. Compassion and Love are powerful protective catalysts in all events and upheavals. I believe in life after life and all events are merely a test of your ability and integrity and ethics, strength of character etc. Good luck everyone, Lynn
Anyone who tries to ride this bear market rally is doing so on a cliff edge. The downside risk is just too great. Better to be safely out of the way at the bottom of the cliff, waiting to rummage through the rubble of bargains once they fall (and sit on a pile of gold ETFs while you wait).
Hi Martin…..We all belong to a society that demands instant gratification…..
The over riding virtue at the present moment in time is PATIENCE……….
My style is medium term speculative…..the rebound has surprised me,yet I’m quite at ease with having loaded up with a wide range of inverse ETF’s that are at present showing a significant paper loss.
Klaus and your insights into the current political and market situation are spot on.
It can be really difficult to be a true contrarian when the messages from the crowd seem to be all consuming…….swimming against the prevailing tide can be tough both mentally and physically…….but like life, tides are cyclical and when a “bear tide” turns just make sure you’re well up the beach and not swept out to sea with the other raging bulls.
Hi,
I am happy to accept the extra risks involved with trading on a daily basis to capture profit when feasible. This also gives me a wider awareness of many more companies
and keeps me up to date as situations change.
I only trade our markets here in the UK but really enjoy your views and ideas.
Regards
Ian
I have always been a “buy and hold” investor. I held on to “blue chips” such as BHP, Rio Tinto etc and all the Banks and Property Markets mainly because of the dividends.
I am stunned by what has occurred and am in an eight figure loss situation.
I blame ONLY USA only for this situation.
I blame in particular Alan Greenspan who reduced interest rates to such a ridiculous rate in 2000 when suddenly the Dot-Com debacle arrived. I also blame the the Obama administration for the way they have DISCARDED money in a way to “resurrect the DEAD from ALIVE”.
I loath you all because you have destroyed the countless hours I have missed from contact with my family.
Harry G
Martin,
May be you might get the best from a combination of both senarios. Say a 90% conservative/longer term and a 10% risk/aggresive portfolio.
This would a least mean the the conservative 90% will be in place even if you lose your shirt on the 10% risk side.
Good luck
Nick
Obama’s real excess is in not having the guts to stand up to Goldman Sachs and the Wall Street ruling class. That money would have been better spent in creating infrastructures for a new, green economy, instead of bailing out greedy banks and corporations. Instead, he has appointed foxes to guard the chicken coop. But this is nothing new. Bush, Clinton, and their predecessors did the same thing. Your analyses perceive this, but only partially. What bothers me, and the reason I am reluctant to renew my membership, is that you seem to share the same illusion as Goldman Sachs and their ilk like to promote, that we really live in a society with a “free market”, rather than one which is, and has always been, manipulated — mostly by hidden corporate power and their government servants. The unprecedented planetary crisis we are living in is not just economic, it’s ecological, political, cultural, moral, and more. I am looking for investment advice which acknowledges this. Not all investors are selfish, and blind to the need for social justice and environmental responsibility. There is such a thing as enlightened capitalism, but I’m not sure I’m finding much of it on your team, when I hear people speaking in reverential tones of “The Market”, as if it were some kind of natural force, or divine power, and invoking “Socialism” as a curse-word, as if it were an invention of the devil.
Martin, I have the bulk of my assets in cash. However I have some ‘play money’ for high risk. If I get consistently good results the balance may change.
I think it is worth noting investment fundamentals overseas are quite different. Gold has gone down for me. Yep in dollars Australian. Even the best American advice has to be taken with caution.
I read Money and Markets as an antidote to all of the wildly optimistic share pushing notes that I also get – not because I agree with everything that is written in it. Fundamentally I am more optimistic than almost any other of your correpondents – although I do agree there will be some short term pain to be borne. Over the last few decades it has never paid to under-estimate the ingenuity and economic resilience of Americans and of the American economy. Admittedly a monster has been created with the structure and practices of the housing market – but once this bottoms out the many strengths will come to the fore.
Having said that America is going to have to face up to some new “truths” that will be painful. Like – the dollar will not be the world’s reserve currency in 7 years time. America will likely no longer be the richest or possibly even the most powerful militarily. But these factors have not prevented European countries from prospering if well governed (unlike in my country – the UK!). But you have the prospect of several years of fundamentally sound Government – and I believe that this is so whether or not you agree with the economic policies of the current President.
So don’t get too carried away with “bearishness”!
Martin, I do both short and long term. Serious money follows long term, short term I use play money{personal choice %} to keep attuned to the market. Best wishes Lou
No matter how the size is.
inflation time, buy commodity.
deflation time , buy inverse ETF.
I’m gonna try this.
I want to be the long term investor that methodically accomplishes good returns based on good decision making. I began investing in the market in 1972 and grew a substantial portfolio using various stocks and American Funds, only to see it recently reduced approximately 38% in value. I have lost confidence in myself, my broker, American Funds, the market, and the ability of our government to make good decisions. I am confused and not sure what to do. I am participating in the million dollar contrarian fund with about 10% of my total portfolio to try and build my confidence in your philosophy. The remainder in parked in American Funds CTAXX. I am looking for something to “hang my hat on” so that I can feel at peace with my investments.
As we all know, bear mkt. rallies can produce big gains in a short period of time. Why not take advantage of them? We have been on the wrong side of this market move, and the opportunity cost of not participating with this trend has been incredible. Now were drawing a line in the sand, getting ready to close out the inverse ETF’s. Are we now going to go long when the risks of doing so are much greater? Fighting the market is a tough game to win. Do we not want to take advantage of what the market is giving us at any given time? Leaving these types of gains on the table is very differcult!
I betting on the mega bear. What are your thoughts on the fund faz?
I’m thinking that if the Dow hits 10,000, faz will drop to around 2 to 3 bucks. That to me would be a great way to play with 2 to 3 percent of my portfolio.
Reg
I am an investor who wants to make money in every type of market so I guess that makes me a short term investor. I hate sitting predominantly in cash while the market moves up or down. I also do not like being long in a short term down market or short in a short term up market. So I will be 70-85% invested in one direction and 15-30% invested as a hedge in the opposite direct or with some in cash for safety. I prefer inverse ETF’s and commodities in todays market and simply can not get enough advice via Money & Markets and Uncommon Wisdom posts. Keep up the great work.
As a Canadian I am taken aback by the sudden fall of the U.S. Currency and its implications on my investments bought in U.S. dollars. The fear I have is the increase in value of those investments short or long once taken back to Canadian dollars will negate any gains made. Is there a tact where we can take advantage of the currency fall and buy with foreigh currencies? The obvious is gold and gold vehicles priced on the Toronto stock exchange like Eldorado. Any others?
Dear Martin,
It strikes me that your first investor profile, wait to profit from the inescapable, severe bear market scenario, is much like the “buy and hold” strategy that most would agree is now pretty much a thing of the past. It is becoming apparent that the greatly denounced practice of “market timing” is now being revealed as the very bed-rock of what enlightened investing must incorporate in the future and, even more interestingly, what it has always revolved upon in the past, albeit in very sophisticated forms far removed from any hint of day trading. The very crux of mutual funds has always been something easily described as market timing. Most market fortunes have been earned through successful timing of the flows of money.
It seems the amassing and study of mountains of analytical market information, and thoughtful interpretation of such, has provided analysts and financial consultants with the ability to boast that they are making informed decisions based on a deep study of external factors, and further, making investment judgments and recommendations based on such. Indeed, market timing has become very sophisticated!
I think the most important macro dynamic in today’s world is the demand for speed. And this applies to the investment world. Good or bad, peoples’ collective impatience with literally everything is driving a certain style and response in the markets. The demand for speed is a negative sign of the times, but in the most macro sense, is probably a good thing because it is something we must pass and learn through to get to the next level of our evolution as productive citizens and caring people. The same can obviously be said for our current syle of government since it is still a true reflection of the people.
The one thing I have missed in your economic writings is the recognition of the great American “will” to make things happen in the face of adversity. Americans have always had a collective optimism that in its most concentrated forms has been a tangible, self-fulfilling prophecy. America’s youthful belief in itself has had a lot to do with propelling our productivity and our markets. This is a more metaphysical notion and perhaps foreign to practioners who focus only on fundamentals. Nonetheless, it is real.
The great question for you is: do you consel your clients based upon the way you think the world should be, and once was, or upon the way it really is today? This is the cursed question of the older generation, of which I am a part!
I enjoy your crusade and your marketing savvy.
W C Remington
I will wait . the long term prospects are most appealling. Short term is too stressful,stay with the long term martin
As a pilot for many years, I feel like I am in a total spin and need to see if that rudder in full opposite direction will get me back to a level flight.
I’m at 10,000 feet, so there is a good possibility all problems will correct themselves before I slam into the ground, but its getting dizzy up here.
Dear Martin
I appreciate the information you continually furnish us – we like to keep up to date on this crazy world
As for me, I am a “Senior Citizen” and therefore am not interested in any long term investments – my life span might not make it
For me I can only hope to make up some of my losses before my number is called
This is a trading market. Buy long or short ETFs and sell covered calls.
Dear martin,
I moved a little prematurely into DXD a double inverse DOW ETF. I will continue to increase my positions because I am convinced that the DOW will go below 6500.
Yes it takes strong nerves to keep this strategy given the completely irrational BEAR Market rally.
I’ll stay the course!
Peter Mueller PhD
second one you have to be very agresive,and take profit as often as possible.
For the bulk of my investments I am content to invest longer term with the dominant trend. However I like to take a small percentage of my portfolio and look for short term opportunities. I hope you keep your focus on those longer term trends for us.
As you predicted, the $US is falling sharply, GM has filed for bankruptcy and we hear that their operation will be much smaller when the reorganisation of the company is completed. Component suppliers surely will have to scale back their operations and some may not survive. More unemployment seems certain. The current bear market rally appears to be reaching a conclusion and I have sold most of my shares and now have cash waiting for the next rally. The $A is increasing in value against the $US and I am not keen to invest in US stocks under these conditions. Australia seems to be travelling well compared with most other developed economies, we have not yet had 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Have you any advice for an Australian investor?
Nothing too long term.. too old for that.. but safety is ultimate..
I wanted to join your Million Dollar Club, but not sure what I would have to invest each
time would be sufficient to make a difference. We need to make money in order to
stay ahead of all this loss in buying power. I was not sure I could spend enough time
on line to do all that would be necessary.. We have quite a few preferred stocks that pay good dividends, although most of their original prices have dropped way down. We did lose on Lehman, unfortunately. Buying it was recommended by our broker just a few months earlier, and by the time I put in my sell order, it was too late.
Any suggestions would be appreciated.
I am a intermediate term trader trading the leveraged Long and Short Rydex Funds. I am inclined to believe we have much worse times ahead. It is too bad that the general population did not see the light in the last several elections. The next few years are going to be very interesting as to where we are heading and how the economy and markets survive! I am not very optomistic. Alan
This question and answer is Age related too,as a retired person one can not play the market riskily but has to preserve the principal, so I rather take less gain but have less risk.
Martin: For over 15 years I’ve followed your advice and have the majority of my portfolio in US Treasuries. Now I believe there is a good chance they will be worthless, as the US dollar and the US Treasury will fail completely. I am thinking of buying residential homes. I expect them to continue to fall in value…but they are REAL PROPERTY. If they fall an additional 50%, then bread will fall a like percentage. Your thoughts please. Thank yo
Ted Keeley
Martin,
As you know all too well Fear and Greed move the markets. If you let either of two dominate your investment skills your sunk. I prefer to not blame others for the changes in the market, but just to move with them. I have made contacts with many brokers, well trained individuals and papers like yours Martin. This keeps me on my toes and not rocking on my heels. This is what is needed for the types of markets we’re in.
My 50 cents! As for the state of our nation & economy, I like anyone of sound mind really don’t know for sure exactly where we will end up. I listen to the Left & Right extremists to keep a handle on my sanity. Most of them are making money from the FEAR AND GREED they spreed. I am a optimist and do not think the majority of Americans will totally fold to crazy ideals, what % is another question.
Stock tip: Follow AL GORE the inventor of the internet and now inventor of global warming is dumping all his capital in green energy. Ha Ha! Always follow what the leading money and wealthy politicians are doing!
I greatly appreciate your very accurate and prescient financial analysis.
Unfortunately, my savings being stored in a French bank, I cannot see how I could invest into your proposed portfolio, as I would lose in transfering and converting my Euros into USD shares.
Best regards.
Jean Raguin
Martin:
America will not survive. God raises up nations to accompolish His purposes and plan… and He brings them down when they reject Him. America has overflowed her cup of evil and now God is bringing her down just like the other great nations of the past.
The events of the Book of Revelation and the end of this age are at the door just like the Bible has foretold by the Jewish prophets. Your subscribers should be getting their souls right with God and learn His plan for them rather than trying to add more worthless computer digits their brokerage accounts.
I am content to wait for the long term rather than chance risky investments in the present market. You guy’s have been right on target and I am with you for the long haul
Martin, I worry that you have it backwards. You wrote above that…
“Many are wiling to tolerate temporary paper losses confident the overriding long-term bearish trend will ultimately pay them for their patience — in spades.”
“On the other hand, many of our readers understand there’s a risk associated with bucking the long-term trend, and trying to jump on these short-term rallies.”
It just may be that the long-term trend is GROWTH and sitting in inverse ETFs is the short-term play – IF that strategy ever plays out. Perhaps the market overcorrected through February 2009 and the Dow in the 8000’s and S&P at 900 represents the proper valuations.
I am fully invested (for me that represents only 20% with the rest in cash) in a half dozen S&P 500 dividend paying stocks and selling call options as a defensive hedge. In truth I depend more on the call income (20% return) than equity gains. In 5 years if all my stocks go down to zero I’ll break-even. At your recommendation, 2% is in DOG, EUM, PSQ and SEF and SKF which has dampened profits by 30%. Oh well, have to take the good with the bad. No recriminations. I think your analysis is spot on and appreciate all your insight and education. Sometimes there are two realities and they do not coincide.
Looking for QUICK PROFIT, AND LONG TERM APPROACH, FOR KNOW AGGRESSIVE,QUICK PROFITS. tHANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR EXCELLENT OPINION.
Martin and Claus
Answer: I try to be a little of both with an increased emphasis on conservation of current wealth for the future.
To these ends we are following your’s and Claus’s recomendations and giving them great weight. However we are caught in transition. We have a major investment in an ING annuity account that is tied up for another 5 years. This investment provides a guaranteed 7% gain compounded on a quarterly basis in a IRA account. The relative stability of ING is of great concern to us. Any insight on this matter would be of outmost value to us.
The contributions of idividuals are the keys to our long term improvementI. I believe that we are in long term trouble with a failing education mentality that allows many of brightest mines to follow unproductive paths seeking an unbalanced emphasis on the pursuit of pleasure versus investment in training for productive endeavours. I believe this stems from lowered family instilled values and a lack of positive stimulation by our current educational systems and a lack of teacher motivation passed to students. As a result, I see a continuing decline for our national produtivity.
Very best regards,
D. Urban
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT INVESTING GE STOCKS AND PFE.
Guess I’m a reformist/activist type of investor. I’ve just told my stockbroker NO to his suggestion of buying into the agribusiness sector. Corn & crude oil from the Persian Gulf both end up in the Gulf of Mexico – its a sad story. Why waste a perfectly good recession trying to scramble back into the bad old ways that caused the problem. Should we feed sugar to diabetics? I believe investments and recovery should be based on constructive environmental and social solutions. How great life on earth could be!
I am playing both sides of the street with a tilt toward the defensive side.
Since no one knows exactly what Mr Market will do in the short run and since I need some decent income comming in, in addition to following your Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio recommendations, I am buying what I consider to be relatively conservative income investments such as VFSTX, Vwinx, SO, DUK, ADVDX, ETP, EPD, and MMP.
THERE ARE ALWAYS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS TO THOSE THAT ARE GOOD AT FORECASTING AND TAKING ACTION. LONG , SHORT ARE JUST DIRECTIONS TO MAKING PROFITS.
I do not have that much money to invest but want Weiss emails
alan platt
Dear Martin,
As Warren Buffett said: “Investing is easy, but it is not simple”.
Practicing some patience, waiting for the moment the market offers you the right entry point, makes it a lot easier.
I share your bearish outlook completely, it is just a matter of time before the market will turn south again.
However, I found out that the instruments (inverse ETF’s) you favor to profit from the coming crash, contain a very toxic ingredient.
I give you the link where you can read the report of two analysts of Barclays Global Invertors:
http://www.barclaysglobal.com/secure/repository/publications/usa/ResearchPapers/Leveraged_ETF.pdf
Best regards,
Henk van der Wijk
Dear Martin,
I am retired and disabled at only age 62 and after last years debacle with my (less than enough) money held by an investment management company who totally missed any warning signs of the September and October crash, I have even less money to see me through now – about 50% less. I have all day long each day to keep up with the markets and with my now self managed account with Schwab I can make trades within a matter of seconds very easily and for only $8.95 each way per trade.
I would like to (need to) take some advantage of the current rally, even though I know it’s not without risk. Please provide, in addition to the Contrarian Portfolio, (of which I am a charter 2 year member and have followed to the letter), some opportunities to cash in on the current rally, (or future bear market rallies) with falling bond prices and rising oil and commodities. There are many EFT’s in these areas as well, but I do not know which ones to look seriously at. Further, with our current keystone cops running the government like children or drunken sailors in a socialistic (or worse) direction, praising our enemies and running down corporate America, it’s become more difficult than ever in my 40 year history of stock trading to select individual companies to invest in.
Like you and Klaus, I do believe a large impact downward is in the making, but we’ve never previously had such a convincing and charismatic liar as President. The masses and even many professionals believe in him and his creative lies while he continues to destroy the country with enormous debts we cannot possibly repay even with a doubling of GDP over the next few years – which cannot happen anyway with the amount of debt the country will owe by then and the many new taxes and trade restrictions he is adapting shortly.
In any event, the masses have been indoctrinated by now to believe in this most dangerous president we’ve ever seen inspite of the awful economic statistics we see each week and they keep pumping the market higher, totally ignoring the eventual outcome. This could possibly go on the for the rest of the summer or longer and being only invested in gold and inverse funds, causes us to miss out on many stocks that have more than doubled since the inception of the Million Dollar Portfolio.
Any advice on how to temporarily take advantage of some of these opportunities, especially by use of other ETF’s I am not familiar with would be helpful, even if it’s risky or must be done on a “day trading” basis.
Thanks for reading and listening, please feel free to write me privately if you wish, or post my question should you want to, but let me know when ans where it might be posted so I can see your reply.
Thanks very much,
Jim Glassmoyer
treading water on this rally hoping to catch the wave when interest rates go up on treasuries or other high quality bonds. I realize that may be a while, but this is a safe harbor for now.
I want to invest where my returns come quickly. Longterm seems to risky.
Martin: Thank you for your advice. I would like to know what you reccomend about oil stocks. Should we hang on to the oil stocks we have or sell them while they are at a profit, with the hopes of buying them cheaper when the market tanks?
I am unable to pick the bottom of the market, I am also unable to pick the top of this bull market bounce. I have to ask myself what am I hoping to achieve, short term profits and risk or long term security. My responce has to be that capital creation can wait, at the moment capital preservation is paramount. I don’t need to make a quick buck, but I do need not to lose one.
Martin, my husband and I are members of MCP and feel relatively safe following the investment strategies outlined by Claus Vogt and you.
We are conservative investors and will always believe in the power of the free marketplace to make economic decisions rather than these invasive, Frankfort school politicans who reside in Washington D.C. implementing government control over the means of production.
We have substantial losses to recover from the 4-Q of 2008 market downturn and are on a mission to get that money back, then decide how to prevent the government from stealing it from us again!
Marilyn and Ron Summers
It seems stocks that were good before,are so so today.
I believe the market will change.Right now I buy as and sell
quickly,I am statisfied with a small return.I lost to much having
long term.I will never do it again.
1. I am in the retirement mode so I emphasize retention of capital and some growth by having $20,000 in the USAA Gold and Minerals Mutual Fund and $215,000 in an indexed annuity which allows be to partially share in any growth with no “risk of Loss” of the NASDAC (50%) and “guaranteed” interest growth of 3% for 2009 (50%). Your advice is very much appreciated.
2. Your defintion of long term is as low as 6 months so I can be patient. Reality is that I’m 68 and may have 15 years of life left so my level of risk taking must be conservative si I don’t invest for minor short term swings.
3. No I’m NOT itching to invest but I’m clsoely watching leadings indicators and other signs as to where this economy is going in the next 1-4 year. I can and will be patient!!!
You can be both as long as you don’t invest all your money. 20 percent short term, 40 percent long term, and always 40 percent cash.
I feel like many others, I lost substantial money and while we are waiting for the long term opportunity to develope I would
like to earn profits from the current market activity. At 81, being self employed all my life, I thought I saw everything but this administration has me completely baffled, how can so many people be so stupid and arrogant. I totally believe in your assessment of our countries future wild economic ride
and believe I am fortunate to be on board.
Allen Sheerin
We do not have the investment tolerance that you and others may have. We can not invest contrarian because of the risk of up swings in the market and being vulnerable to margin calls.
1. We cahanged from a C- rated Bank to a B+ rated Bank.
2. Our daughter changed from a D+ rated Bank to a B+ rated Bank.
3. I changed my government TSP account to the G fund (special short term T-bills) back in 2006 and have not suffered the losses that many did.
4. My wifes small IRA is placed in B+ Bank due to her intolerance to risk. (Fully insured CD)
5. I have a small IRA that I invested in Seabridge Gold (SA) today.
I think we have taken the best defensive steps that we can with our limited resources. I agree with you that the end is near and hopefully we can hold on.
I work for USDA, Farm Service Agency. We are vital to the continued operation of United States farmers. Obama wants to cut the miniscule funds to farmers, less than 1/10 of 1% of USDA budget. Hopefully cooler heads in Congress will prevail. We do not want to be dependent on China, Brazil, Venezuala or other good friends to feed us.
Thank you. Good luck and God bless you.
Dear Mr Weiss:
I like your positive attitude in these interesting times. Even the Bible says “It came to Pass” It never says it came to stay. I am alarmed by the socialistic attitude coming down on us. It seems they have forgotten you can shear a sheep year after year but you can only skin it once. James Cook said “The most productive people are the first to suffer from the erosion of freedom.” Lately the dribble coming out of the whitehouse is about as valuable as a bucket of warm spit. Thanks for your continuing efforts to see us thru this dark period. My only concern is I have never been willing to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. The liberals and some republicans have forgotten who they serve. So its Just load the wagons and dont worry about the mules. I have an answer for all of that. Its called the power of one. Damm them and their organized plunder. With folks like you around Martin we can punch above our weight. Guessing is like pitch forking water so thanks for putting a lid on the baloney. One last thing: Your sound dollar committee should form chapters in every community. The average citizen is about as dense as a Russian novel and needs to know what you have been pounding the table for. It woke me up and I have learned that government and the main stream media still think they can pick up a turd by the clean end. Digby
Need to make money now! Desperate to make some in fact. Would you comment on something I saw on Captured Dividends by a guy name Dyson with a newsletter called the 12% solution I think. Thank you !!!
I am an Englishman, and have just left the UK because of the dangerous economy that Gordon Brown has created for the nation, and I am having to take some strong medicine to keep ahead.
I believe that anyone trading in US$ or GB£ equities trying to keep ahead of the meltdown of their currency is missing the point. It is the currencies themselves that have become the real weakness in your plans. Cash is King, still, but my advise would be to take a truly defensive position and convert a decent proportion of your cash into a basket of other currencies such as the Brazilian Reais, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar and possibly the Swiss Franc. Strong medicine I know, but it is still cash, and can still be invested, but you will have protected yourselves from the very real possibility of a collapsing Pound or Dollar. Apart from the Swiss France all the other currencies are underpinned by commodity wealth. The Pound and the Dollar are hugely overvalued considering that 10% of the UK GDP and 13% of the USA GDP is debt and it unlikely that even the interest can be covered.
The continued printing of money is just making the situation worse. The fan has only just been turned on and something really nasty is going to hit it soon!
It’s been an incredibly frustrating two months watching the Dow go from 6600 to 8700 and not participating. And worse yet watching “paper losses” compound on short ETFs. A loss is a loss is a loss, paper or not. It would seem the same logic used for bailing out of stocks prior to an impending crash would also hold true when holding shorts as the market climbs. No difference. There’s a saying that goes “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. To trust in reason to prevail has always been dangerous. Are we waiting for Godot?
My current strategy is to hunker down and play it safe. My portfolio presently consists of Treasury Bills, Money Market Funds, and foreign currency CD’s with a smattering of heirloom stocks – less than 5% of the total. The models that I used stopped working several years ago, and that’s why I am where I am.
I expect to reinvest when the average P/E is below ten, quality companies are paying well-covered 6 – 8% in dividends, and most of the crooks and liars are in jail. But how to find real safety – anywhere int the world – is a real problem.
I follow Elliott Waves (Robert Prechter) and I expect conditions to get much, much worse before we are out of this messs.
I am itching to trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend. Also, what happened yesterday with drop in gold and other commodities? Thank you!
Dear Martin and staff,
Thank you for your question. I think that riding a bear-market rally with trailing stop losses in place is a legitimate financial exercise and have been doing so.
If none of us here were to have participated in last years losses, would we not still want to participate in a 50% market rally? How much the more so then for those who did lose principle.
With “Old Mo” clearly in play, albeit absent fundamentals, abandoning principle diminishing shorts in favor of trailing stop loss long trades is rather palatable. Of course one must thoughtfully mind the store with regard to sentiment and tightening up stops.
It is my opinion that you would serve your readership well to lead them to the water in up as well as in down markets and let them decide what and when to drink. Perhaps you have already accomplished this by virtue of Safe Money v. Real Wealth. Currently I am acting on Real Wealth Report recommendations. I would have liked to have seen some conviction out of STRONGLY recommending oil at $35 as a prime example.
Evidently, my answer is trade the trough when swells are monsters like this. Having said that, I can’t help but wonder if this set of monster waves is about rallied out.
Fondest regards,
Ross Orndorff
I invest in “silver” $50.000 at a time (SVM) Silvercorp, and also “gold”. Exceptional returns ! Linus Lorenzen
How can I buy something with gold? How can we find a common cause to change the system?
I’d like to stay invested in the short term to keep my head above water, but I’d also like to have enough reserve resources on hand to aprticipate in any big market movement. I don’t see the market moving anywhere but down for the rest of 2009, except for a few teaser rallies. I feel that our stimulus money was put into the wrong hands to do any benefit, and the errors of the past, have not been learned yet as people are looking for the easy way out and not the hard lesson realities. The prudent investor that has minimized their debt and not overextended themselves, will get kicked continually in the gut (and elsewhere) with “it sucks to be you” attitude from the nation’s leadership (if that’s what you want to call it). What incentive is there to be debt free and grow the economy through investments?
For me money is a tool, and the more a tool is appropriately put to use the more value it creates in this world; so, I would fit into the second category and would prefer to ‘trade this market more aggressively going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend’. -Thanks
I think I prefer short term investments with a good yield, mostly because I am older and do not want to wait a long time. However, I am extremely new to this. I like Martin and all of the other financial members insights, but honestly I really do not know how to invest at all. Are there going to be articles that are specifically for people like me, who would like to get involved, but don’t have alot of money, and don’t know how to go about it?
I don’t look for money, as I’m retired, with three Grandchildren, that are in college. Therefore, I don’t mind opposing the liberals that they are mistaken, etc. However, as long as I don’t need to send funds. Also, I don’t send for stocks.
Sincerely,
hghopkins@peoplepc.com
Hi Martin,
Definitely a bear given all the fundamentals. And this market is driving me crazy. It is nuts.
However, I would have liked to have made a little bit in the bear market rally using ETFs & maybe some stock trades.
When the trend confirms, I would like to take a couple of positions, then when the end confirms, I’d like to get out. I don’t mind missing out a bit at the beginning of the trend or after the reversal, as long as I make a profit along the way. I also like stop losses and trailing stops. I don’t expect to pick the perfect entry or exit point. But I really appreciate the research info. Regards, Judy
Gold silver thay will go up as dollor goes down
additional comment:
With paper losses for our current position, when the bear reasserts, we won’t be making profit until we are beyond our buy in point.
I’d prefer getting on the LONG RUN train. But…..How long is the long run?
Hey Martin,
I love this country and all that it has to offer. However, the party is over. America will never return to its prosperous ways. The dollar is doomed to fail, and the government is going to ensure that by inflation. The new monetary order will be the IMF as other nations have asked for a new reserve currency to replace the dollar. Precious metals, and other commodities are going to rise substantially and assets denominated in the dollar will decline. The Government will begin to take over many companies under the banner of “To Big To Fail”. Government expansion into the private sector will be substantial and pervasive. Unemployment will rise to double digits and companies will fail by the droves. I believe we are headed for a new global currency and the world is going to look incredible different. Gerald Celente a trends forecaster has predicted the entire collapse of the US financial system by the end of 2009. There are no green shoots coming. As the bible says, “when they say peace and safety, then sudden destruction comes upon them”. The Bible is the best guide for today’s financial crisis. May God Bless you all.
D
Martin; you have called this mess from the start; I don’t beleive we can save America; best option is to relocate to Brazil State of Tocantins; go to Tocantins A better State For All; new railroads, highways; new city Palmas; invest in farms, cattle, energy; I have 40 years agriculture experience & am looking for Investors; appreciate your dedication & wish you & your team the best Regards, Earl J
I am already following the MDCP but would also like to benefit from the current volatility by making some more aggressive bets with a small portion of my portfolio.
I am a long term value type investor. My modest IRA investment doubled, but I was “asleep”during the bull run and now I am back to square 1. I’m nearing retirement and I am seeking an all season portfolio now while my portfolio sits in T-bills. I don’t know if we hit bottom yet and if we are to go into hyperinflation so I am keeping alert. According to EWI the DOW could drop to 1000, and there could be rumours of war at the bottom. So strong foriegn currencies and maybe defensestocks might be a choice too.
Martin
Thanks for keeping me informed on what is realy going on ,in the market. Information is crucial! the more information i have helps me make an intelligent decision. Using ETF to short the market lowers the cost of the short side of the market. And if the market realy rowles over one can sell what stocks he likes ,the hort is on sto cover the small losses in the rowlover.
Thanks again for your help in keeping me informed. George
I find that long term investments alone don’t cut it anymore. A reasonable chunk of my investments are in relative safe long term investments. Your guidance for these investments is valuable. In addition however I find that short term trends provide nice profits a little at a time with leap options. I rarely hold them until close to expiration, but rather I sell as soon as I can book a reasonable profit. In todays market there are always new short to medium opportunities. Most often I play both sides of the fence to limit a potenial loss in case that my guess of the direction of the short or medium term market turns out to be incorrect.
Melvin Baumann
HI Martin
Great work – been reading Safe Money for years and profiting.
I must be a long term investor and not a short term trader – 1 – I am not at computer nor have access to necessary timely investment technologies to be a short time trader – and 2 I don’t trust myself anyway in guessing short term – that is speculation – which is practically betting – go to Las Vegas for that.
So I am currently holding about 50% of portfolio in cash (and 3 month CD) and very short term Treasuries as you advised – other half is in Emerging markets especially China, Gold, and energy. But I am concerned about domestic energy companies (crude and NG) due to Obama taxation and other pressures. I think in general now is time to buy foreign companies including CNOOC (which I have) and Petrobras and Dragon and Total.
I don’t like the leveraged or inverse ETF – because of the math and daily revalue method
If something declines by 50% one has to go up 100% just to get even.
But regular ETF are fine and better now than many standard mutual funds.
Unfortunately don’t have large enough portfolio to benefit from your advisory service.
very best wishes
john sloan
For me, going for quick short term gains is just gambling. Informed gambling perhaps, but still risky. There will come the day when one is on the wrong side of that trade, and then one will have to lick his/her wounds and wonder what happened. I’ve always tried to identify longer term trends and stay with those positions even when the short term volatility went against me. I opened positions in gold stocks in mid to late 2004, held them for a minimum of 1 year to get tax advantages, and sold them into price spikes. I can’t hit the absolute top of those spikes, but I do make profits, and am happy with the returns. The gold trade is still on, and I’m selling a little into the current spike. I did NOT sell when gold slumped earlier in the year. In fact, I should have bought more, but I’m not greedy. Just staying with the plan. I plan to exit all long positions before the end of this year, for tax purposes. Then wait for the next downdraft to begin the cycle again. My timing isn’t always perfect, but then, who is? I’m not really a gold bug, but I can’t resist trading the metals in this environment. Five years from now, when we look back, we’ll all say “Wow, it was such a sure thing, why didn’t we buy in with both fists?” For me, I’m just too conservative for that. I make a plan and stay the course. Be very careful, there’s going to be a lot of ups and downs.
Hi Martin, I’m a long time lurker and watcher and appreciate the work you and your group do and your generosity. I’m in NZ and dont have a sophisticated trading platform so cant do the fancy stuff! I own a few US Precious Metals shares – AuY, Slw, Gss, and Rby and have sat on them for several years waiting for The Big One,
My concern is if the USD plunges as predicted, and the NZD ,being a commodity currency, strengthens, will the precious metals shares soar so much they will more than compensate for the weakness of the USD? Or would I be better getting out of US shares while the getting is still good? I haven’t found a satisfactory answer to this anywhere.
Thanks for your time and I look forward to hearing you thoughts.
As an INVESTOR I will always follow the major trend like the bear market we’re in now. As a TRADER I like making profits, such as the bear market rally we’re experiencing, no matter which way the market moves.
I am both types of investor. I have your contrarian portfolio membership with a shadow portfolio tracking that one. But I have carved out another chunk of my savings for making shorter-term plays. I regretfully admit that I dumped all my long positions in stocks when the market rallied back to around 7400. At that time you guys were heralding the traps of being long on anything and that this rally would fizzle out. I liquidated all my longs, bought a few inverse ETF and some gold bullion. Fortunately, I did not begin your contrarian portfolio until the market hit around 8500. But i have been gunshy about buying anything in the market all the way from 7400 to 8500. I could kick myself for selling Apple at 110. Apache at 68. Etcetera, etcetera. I missed out on about 40K worth of increases in the long positions I had. Could KICK MYSELF! So yes, I want to play the swings and try to make back some money. But you guys have got me scared-to-death to play anything to go up except inverse ETFs and gold.
Martin….solar sector stocks have been soaring….what do you think about longing this sector ?……Can you suggest some ETF’s to capture both upside and downside movements ?………..thanks
Hi Martin,
I am content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market. I know that with a plan and steady patience, I will ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits. I like to build wealth at a slower and less hectic pace at this time in my life.
Martin keep up the good work! You have saved “my bacon” more then once over the years. I appreciate your honesty, integrity and courage to tell us the unvarnished truth. Thank you.
A while back you were working on a project called ‘The Sound Money Committee’ or something like that. What is the status of that organisation? Does it still exist?
Best Regards,
H. March
At my age, & remaining rescources, I would have to call my self a very cautious short termer. If long term is 10-12+ years, I don’t feel like I have that much time left. I’m willing to wait 3-5 years, but would like to see noticeable improvement in the near term. I’ve cancelled out my Min.Rqr’d.Distr. for the year, but that lying bunch of theives in Washington are surely not going let us continue it after 12/31/09. I really don’t know what to do, but am looking for safety, with a bit of growth. I feel like with diminishing values in the U.S. dollar, my money market may not be the place to be..Everett
I’m certainly not interested in trading, parrticularly in this market. I’m a contrarion, but I am inexperienced in the sell discipline. I like to buy out of favor stocks that are undervalued. In the past I have only sold when the investment was over valued or I lost faith in management. In the future I will sell more quickly on negative news than I have in the past. For instance, an increase in short positions, (Allied Capital)unexpected management changes, a sudden deteoration in the balance sheet, even if due to an acquisition, which is otherwise favorable, ie. (Bank of America). I was a real estate appraiser, (MAI), so I liked REITS because I understand them, or thought I did. I know REITS went busted in the 30’s, started up in the 60’s again and went bust again, and they could go bust again today! Every REIT I own except WP Carey has an opinion on their audited statement that they are in violation of lending agreements and and may not make it. Naturally, I’m quite concerned but reluctant to sell at these prices.
My delimna now is that I have some big loses in REITS, (Weingarten, Duke, and Kimco), but I think they are undervalued, possess quality portfolios, and will probably survive and recover value rather quickly, if they can renegociate their refinancings. I’ve read Martin’s comments on selling real estate and financials and it makes sense, but I can’t get over this hump that the market has discounted their assets too much.
I am into both ways, with a majority in long term market moves; mining companies, oil companies. also doing contracts in Gold with comex for aggressive trading. Always hope I made the right investments!
With the mqrket ignoring the long term fundamentals, and this being an unprecedented economic environment, without historical precedence in the influence of nationalization by the current Federal administration, the “bull” runs are beyond ken for all but the most informed. I’d put 15% of my portfolio at risk with the basis of 85% potential gain to 15% potential loss for a particular trade: not looking to top or bottom the profit or loss for a particular trade. (If one risks $20k and can net just $100 a week over a year, that is a very nice return.) Doing that at my level made me a tied-to-the computer-investor, and I found it was not worth it. So, if something along that level of investment orientation can be reasonably done here I would support it.
I like the commodities market. You can sell the Dow or the S&P short. As you have seen everything has been going higher, the market, gold, silver, copper, all other commodities and even interest rates. As you know the markets should not work this way. Like you have said the market will turn downward and I believe it will be soon. I am itching to sell the market short very soon. Watching volume. I believe when the market turns it will drag most everything down with it.
I am English (Staffordshire) but did College in Minnasota, I don’t think America will ever be socialist, it will fight like hell to retain its free market status but will need to be far more regulated, the invisible hand of government will need to be more visible. America will Survive and so will we.
It was easy for me to see that our very false economy was heading for a big fall, so I pulled everything from the market just over a year ago and reinvested in 7.5% (for the first year, now 6.35%) FDIC (or its S & L equivalent) insured CDs through the (still) highest rated local credit union. I was a few months early for the fall, but as a result suffered zero losses. I anticipate that the market will be (unfortunately for many) very attractive by early next year. I do not believe in long term investing. The market rises and falls, and it’s not all that difficult to predict the coming cycles. What ever happened to buy low and sell high? The current crop of over-educated financial planners (I’m one of them, but don’t agree with the general philosophy) has been convinced that money should go into the market and stay there ’til the sun doesn’t shine, rather than utilize obvious predictors for market timing. In my opinion, my approach is actually the truly conservative one. I believe the market will see more significant lows before it eventually regains to significant highs.
Exchanging is a key ,I guess.
We have one that suits current situation,
one that totally opposite.
Exchanging it!
I guess nothing is absolutely fit what’s going on this earth.
I’m a one who believe you even in far east, in Japan
Mr. Weiss:
I find your insights superior to most; however, the only possible long-term investment is to invest in our constitutional freedoms. You know, the free market. Our constitution is still recognized, at least in theory, to be our supreme law, so considering that in the U.S. self-government means that it is the citizens job to enforce it. So why don’t we? We just celebrated our brave soldiers that gave so much for our freedom, the same constitutional freedoms that we are unwilling to demand from our political representatives.
If it is not treason for an elected representive to intentually violate their oath to protect, support, and enforce our constitution, what is it? If it is not treason to vote for, or in any way support said public offical, what is it? I think that our best investment is to pray that there is no God!
Sincrely, Lyle
Hi Martin
I have been reading your e-mail articles for a couple months now feeling the need to get more involved in my financial destiny. In the past I have left investment of my hard earned money to the “financial experts” only to suffer signficant losses thru the recent downturn and the bust of the tech bubble. I enjoy reading your daily articles in my attempt to further educate myself.
Typically I have always invested for the long term but watching the activity on wall street these past months it becomes appearant that there is money to be made. This is telling me that maybe I should become more aggressive. I am really not a big spender but somehow feel I could be doing better.
Again, I do apprieciate the insites provided in the “Money and Markets” articles you provide.
Thank You
Greg
Martin,
I have read your excellent book “The ultimate depression survival guide”. I agree with your research. I usually take a one year view of financial investments.
I don’t mind how long it is before these markets turn again. I am prepared to wait.
I expect the results to be startling based on recommendations.
Best wishes,
Noel.
I feel more comfortable taking longer term positions that follow major trends. However, I realize that the markets have dramatically changed. I have to become far more comfortable taking shorter term positions, both long and short, to profit from the dynamics of this ever-changing market.
Capital preservation and income
I’m going along with the contrarian approach, but being a small investor (IRA) it would be appreciated if we could take advantage of some of the gains.
I started my 401K in 1987 and went into the high risk options proposed by Vanguard.
I retired 3 years ago and went into a cash preservation mode at that time via Ameriprise. I still have lost approximately 25%. So after reading The Great Depression Ahead by H.S. Denton and I am almost through Dr. Weiss’s book How To Survive The Great Depression I have gone to a totally cash position (CD’s). My financial advisor has been very reluctant to follow my directions but understands that his status as my advisor is precluded by following those instructions. I am now waiting to see what happens. When it does I will be positioned t make the most of it.
I am 61 and prefer to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits. I have contemplated rolling over my stock and funds into cash so I can participate in an asset fire sale after the market declines.
I was the type of person who believed in long term investments tied to market trends, but I’m 60 years old and my 401K has lost 42% in the last 26 months. It has come back about 9% in the last couple of months but I know that this is just the calm before the storm.
I lost my job 6 months ago and I’m still out of work. I have to become more aggressive to go after some profits when stocks move between these waves of market trends.
But people like me who find themselves looking at retirement in the next 5 to 7 years and the fact there is so much bad economic news just feel lost with no place to go.
I believe in our great country but my concern regarding to much goverment is coming true and I don’t think socialism is the answer.
Any advise would be welcome at this point in my life.
Thank you for your blog.
Regards,
Michael
I took all my stocks and mutuals and sold them 1st of the year. I am now sitting with all of it in money market. Yes, small return but after hearing my friends losing up to 40% of their portfolio, I can’t complain of losing only 7%. I guess I’m afraid to let go of what I have and see it go south.
I believe in your statement that the market will go down. When I see that wave, then maybe I might feel comfortable to get back in. My retirement is 1 1/2 years away.
Regards
Gary
I have been unemployed for 7 years now and the only funds I have left to invest are those that remain in my self-directed IRA account, I’m all for the long-term (and presumably) safer strategy of investment. Thanks for all your hard work!
I am retired … therefore, I want to put the money that I have in SAFE places. I am NOT into individual stock trading; I prefer short term treasury funds, highly rated banks and some ETF’s. SAFETY over income. Not an easy task with the dollar losing value!!!
The trouble with Monsanto is their genetically engineered food trying to make fruits and vegetables with no seeds and then selling them to poor farmers abroad so they then are completely dependent on this company to be able to grow the food. Also, many, many people fear this genetically modified food is already causing grave danger to huge populations’ health.
Tyson Foods I believe h as been caught hiring tons of illegal aliens. Why would people want to invest in companies that are ethically challenged. I would only wish to put my money in companies that have good moral & ethical values and do not betray American workers!
I’m a Neophyte in the market so I rely on you and Claus to tell me when to buy and when to sell. My age doesn’t permit me to become a guru. I also would like to see substanial gains in my portfolio but at the same time I try to be patient. I have full confidence in your and Clauses directions. Thanks!
I would discribe myself as a scared investor. In late 2007, I had nearly 1 million in investments. When the crash occurred, I bailed out when my portfolio dropped to 600 thousand. I knew that 600M making 4% would continue to provide me with a decent life style. Home free and clear, no personal debt and a small pension, SS, and 4% return on the 600M now invested in savings & short term CD (12mo or less).
Yes, I would love to recoup some of my losses, however I will remain very conservative and wait out what I believe will be another devistating drop in the market.
I would guess you would describe me as an investor “frozen with fear and too scared to be anywhere near stocks at this time.
Respectfully,
Bill Lewis
definitely long term 5-10 yrs/ also have real concerns re impending hyperinflation and how to prepare for that
In early March I began buying energy. Oil, oil services, oil drilling, natural gas. I also bought gold. I am now preparing to sell all, except for natural gas. I also have been buying trend stocks, riding the wave and then selling. Finally for long term, I have been buying real estate. It is dirt cheap now and I hope I will reap some returns in early 2010.
Personally, I don’t see the benefit in risking short term gains, since they are taxed so much higher than long term gains. Better to invest on the downside which probably will be long term.
Taking Warren Buffets advice, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. I think those words mean to be greedy at times like this when so many than ever before are scared their savings evaporate. It was inevitable that US currency is devaluating since March 2009 and seems to continue over short, mid term with slight pull back and longer term…bearish maybe $1.60s Eur/USD.
As for the elliot wave and fibonacci theories go in the stock market we’re ONLY seeing a normal retracement going on(uptick) and will eventually continue it’s downfall only in greater force when Wall Street money shifts gear 180 degrees bound to happen but big question is when.
Bear in mind that DJIA was artificially manipulated to stop the shorting of stocks and which will if I had to guess, the fall will be greater than the most recent one…unless of course, us government says to hell and delcares martial law and at which time….the world is screwed any which way.
Being in Commercial Real Estate, this sector has deteriorated and has not begun it’s decimation and I am waiting for the Wall Street whistle blower of CMBS, the Credit card deriatives and the continuation of what was previous aritificial stop in the foreclosure market by the US government which has to continue now.
After printing so much money by US Government, and sovereign wealth funds scrambling out of US dollars in the last 2 months and have probably 4-6 more months to adjust out, Even the worlds “strongest” ironman goverment has to take the occasional break as it’s losing its touch with the world and running out of ammo….Now with GM’s BK, the losses will mount up even more, but will be 4-6 months before results come to reality at Wall Street at which time probably 1-2 more major corporation will follow bankcruptcy fashion to rid itself to brew up the perfect storm.
in Summary, seems likely senario for me that as Mr Weiss’s dad prediction the big fall in stock markets in the winter…back in the depression era will occur repeat itself once more in the fall-winter of 2009.
Prediction = fibonacci retracement is staging to to go to 0.381 levels = somewhere near 4500
Martin
I need help I do not know what to do with muni bonds I have had for only a little over a year or where to go knowing inflation is coming, massive taxes and so much uncertainty. I wanted to get into your plan but did not have money from a house4 sale yet. Who can I contact and what should I do.
I agree you have a “Top Notch” staff !! I am 67 yrs. old and have” loaned ” the commodity markets $50K plus over the years. I am interested in getting my money back! But don’t have much time left!! I read your thoughtful and educational editorials diligently – keep up the good work
I can’t watch the market all the time, so I would like to know what to get out of and what to do with funds until the economy turns positive.
I divide my funds into 60% long term investments and 40% short term and bear opportunities. The long tem catagory also includes short term t bills, the safest place for your money with the least return (No such thing as a free lunch). I subscribe to the Million dollar contrarian portfolio, althought my investment is less than
$ 1,000,000. This gives me the assurance that over time I have income and appreciation, while also protecting my capital by holding short term t bills. What I liked about the MDCP is that Martin has invested $1,000,000 of hisown cash, so he’s putting his money where his mouth is, something very rare these days. The second approach is to buy inverse ETFs, based on a couple of other services provided by Weiss, namely, World currency options and crisis opportunity ETF trader.
Obviously this mixed approach costs more in subscription fees, but it allows me to be flxible between long term and short/ bear oppotunities. I have o pick the recos I enter, as entering them all takes more funds and time, neither of which I have. I have not listened or employed a so called financial advisor for a long time, and thank god. They only care about their fees and income and usually haven’t got a clue as to what is happening and even worse don’t care period!! Just watch the financial channels and the talking heads, it is almost funny if it was not so tragic. These are trying times and the most important thing on my list is to perserve capital. No capital, no play, you are out of the game. Things never stay the same, infact the only thing that doesn’t change is change itself.
Good luck to all and thanks
Alex B
I am a patient individual with a 42 stock portfolio many at long term over 750,000 dollars with a reagular broker and then I have over 100, 000 with scottrade that i do anywhere from 100 to 500 shares for speculation 22 different companies and will judge when I will drop some eventually or continue long term by selling part or adding more money. I do not have to live on my investments. Most are in commodities plus your recommendations…….
Thank you Victor sestokas sr
So here’s today’s question:
What kind of investor are YOU?
I personally am content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that I will ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
I’m not a new investor, but only invested in 1 stock and 2 different mutual funds for the last 15 years thorugh an investment advisor and never worried, until now. I was of the mindset to buy and hold. With the turn in the economy, I have made a decision to better educate myself on investing. I not against investing long-term, but would like to see some short-term profits as well, since my portfolio’s value has declined. I also am reading and trying to understand all the info out there. I think the more detail provided on recommendations to buy/sell are key for me taking control of my financial future. I would prefer you provide the info/recommendation as you have been doing, and I will decide whether its right for me/my family based on my situation at the time. I’m not extremely wealthy in dollars, but am in the sense of loving family. I’m the best off financially of my entire family and try to help them when I can. So, I’m interested in protecting what I have, but also short-term profits to be able to help. I’ll keep you in my prayers that God may bless you for helping the little guy.
Don K.
Must say that I’m enjoying what is probably a short term rally but feel committed long term to following your million dollar recs.There are probably many in my situation with 80 -85 % of my assets in stocks with very low cost basis such as exxon and have been very reluctant to give up on them and pay even the current LT capital gains taxes.In the last year I have used some of them for covered calls with the thought if I get taken out at 80-85 I will be able to take advantage of the current low LT cap. gains but so far it hasn’t happened.If you have any thoughts on this situation I would appreciate your opinion and congratulate you on the long term wisdom which you have been expousing. Thanks, Bill
I am bullish on small cap, but if Obama puts in his $250.000 tax law then small cap is dead. Ameridans rebound with start up small business’ Gold is real money and it is looking good. I believe the FED will soon fail with all this spending and bail outs, Gold appears to be the only true answer. You will soon use greenbacks for wall paper.
You don’t make very much $ watching. You need to be in, trading long or short, but you need to be in the mkt. Right now I’m 40% confused, 25% right (long), and 15% wrong. I sure could use a little help in timing. Squeeze me some juice.
Hi Martin: Probably not unlike most investors I’m a bit of a hybrid. I’m still long high quality stocks and I prefer ones that pay dividends. But I also have an inverse ETF bond fund Ultra Short Treasuries. In addition I have some exposure to precious metals in stocks. It’s not a perfect portfolio but I don’t have a problem making decisions to cut losses. I’ll be ready to pull the trigger on some long dated put options when things start to unravel. Thanks for keeping me informed.
The market always over-reacts once it has got the bit between its teeth and I knew it would go down too far too fast and then bounce prior to resuming its downward trajectory. I thought about getting back into equities in March but instead liquidated all my inverse ETF’s (but did get into oil & commodities) so have since made some small gains but nothing big time. I feel that it is now too late to get back into the rally and am waiting for signs that the other shoe is about to drop. At that point I will liquidate my oil & commodity positions & get back into Inverse ETF’s. I feel the market will probably turn whilst everyone is on holiday or just after, when beachside reflection and common sense will reassert itself and result in the return of the bear once investors return from their vacations.
the trend is my friend
but one should hedge.
No , You are wrong!
This time too , Martin is winning.
“the Ultimate Depression survival guide” is winning.
Keep believing in Martin!
He sees a lot more than you think.
Contrarian survive.
Others can’t.
This is “The law of Unintended consequences” .
In the tale of two investors, I am both after reading Richard Romey’s “Strategic Index Investing”. In his section on Active Portfolio Management Strategies, he introduces the concept of a “Core-Satellite” portfolio construction strategy having two parts: A core part representing the larger portion of the portfolio (70% to 90%) and a satellite part consisting of the remainder (10% to 30%). I use this concept to address both the mid-long term focus of Claus’ Contrarian Portfolio (80%) and picks from my short term watch list taken mainly from the other Weiss services such as Crisis Opportunity ETF trader and Red-Hot Commodity trader (20%). This way, I feel I have the best of both worlds.
I’m an investor who wantsto keep his resources high and dry against a day when there’ll be real bargains. ON THE OTHER HAND,
I don’t want to trade the present trap market. On the other hand, I’m retired and have to live on the income on my capital. At your suggestion I’m staying in short Treasuries, so I have NO income and am having to invade capital. Not very satisfactory.
I would like a safe way to grow my capital in both markets. I am not greedy I would be happy with six percent growth. I don’t see any vehicles that allow this to happen right now.
i a typical scared investor. I want to play it safe but woul like to put some small amount in the things that would maek money in the bear mkt. I am not a weathy investor, so i need to be careful regarding how much I “Gamble”
I have been watching the market with the Elliott Wave Principle and playing the strongest downturns with inverse ETF’s. Now, that’s just for my trading account. The great preponderance or our money is in a secure banking institution along with some money in a couple of good looking venture capital plays. You could say that I am a speculative defensive trader.
I think that this “crash” will be severe and that when we come out on the other side, the world will be different from what we have now in terms of goverance and economics.
Hello Martin,
I believe that we could make money on short Bull runs within a major Bear decline and still follow Claus to the letter who is obviously correct in my opinion.
With long and short ETF’s and stops set properly we could have a piece of cake and also the whole cake at the end. Especially currency ETF’s would be a great addition. Actually I belong to your currency alert and 1M portfolio group and just received the $ ETF play this week…
Regards,
AlexBMI
I am inclined to believe that the US financial market will test the March low again.I have put aside cash to jump in with your instructions.
Ranzino