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Dear Reader,
Our topic all week long has been: How do YOU build the optimum growth portfolio for 2010? And so far, we’ve covered THREE major areas: (1) U.S. stocks, (2) foreign stocks and (3) income investments.
That’s why, yesterday, we asked …
Do FIXED-INCOME INVESTMENTS have a place in your portfolio? For income, safety or a proxy for cash?
And if so, what kinds do you own? U.S. Treasuries? Corporate bonds? Municipals? Short-, medium- or long-term maturities?
What other kinds of income investments do you like?
Your responses are, as before, either intriguing or exciting …
Carole seems to be a dyed-in-the-wool Treasury investor: “I am currently holding U.S. Treasuries (Mutual Fund) long, medium and short term equally. I plan to move away from the long term and emphasize shorter term on these.”
Norman W. is totally OUT of U.S. Treasury bonds: “The FED will have to raise rates,” he says. “However, even before that I believe foreign demand for our bonds will dry up.
“International bonds are an option. The U.S. dollar should resume its slide in the second quarter of this year, thus inflating yields on international bonds.”
Plus, with interest rates so low, I was not surprised to see that many investors have moved from U.S. Treasuries to higher yielding (and higher risk) investments …
Jimmy B. swears by annuities: “Much of my funds are in Fixed Indexed Annuities that have no downside other than inflation’s effect but if the index goes up the return can be reasonably good.”
Tom D. writes “I prefer quality dividend-paying stocks that pay decent and consistent yields. I prefer stocks that are for “basic needs” like energy, utilities and consumer staples. If the stock prices decline, the yields increase.”
Coleman G. comments “I found WisdomTree International Dividends Ex-Financials (DOO). It seems to have exactly what the income seeking investor wants: The highest dividend-paying stocks from around the world, including the U.S., except for financials (which means these companies must make a PROFIT and then give some of that profit via DIVIDENDS to shareholders).”
Warren W. reports that he owns “… High-yield corporate bond funds, funds that own convertible securities, foreign and emerging market bond funds … and a Senior Debt Fund.”
Overall, if I’d have to rank our readers response, it looks like a third to one-half are income investors and that 80% or more count on vehicles other than U.S. treasuries for their income portfolios.
So, in terms of building a great portfolio for 2010, our readers seem to be giving Treasury bonds a pretty low rating, probably a one or a two on a scale of one to ten.
Now, it’s time for today’s question:
Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals … or not? Why?
How much of your portfolio have you invested? Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead?
Which are your favorites? Gold? Silver? Platinum? Palladium?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio for 2010.
Just click here and leave a comment to share your thoughts. I’ll add my own thoughts over the weekend or on Monday.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 695 comments… read them below or add one }
Yes, I am loading up with gold, silver and dollars too.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 3:20 PM
Rodrigo, thanks your reply. It sounds like you are managing a portfolio. Typically, but not always, the precious metal class has been a safe-haven for inflation weary investors making for an inverse relationship. On a chart you can see the relationship between the two. That in mind, if you are running a portfolio, how you allocate your positions will influence what your portfolio will do.
If for instance, you have a 40% allocation in gold, and 40% in silver and 20% in the dollar – the metals would lead the portfolio with a small counter hedge in the dollar that, in the event the metals went down, the dollar would provide only a small hedge on curbing your losses.
Just some thoughts Rodrigo, we will have much more information about portfolio analysis and allocations to come…
I feel I have enough gold and silver. I also have a few paladium call options. I hold them for emergency purposes and do not expect to sell them in the near future. I’m mostly in cash, expecting a large stock market fall later this year or early next.
Just about every major industrial nation is inflating their currency. They are promoting growth of money supply over fighting inflation. With Ben at the helm, the price of gold in dollars will continue to climb. I expect gold at $1,200 oz by the end of 2010 and over $1,500 by the end of 2012. I consider gold to be a defensive position for maintaining asset value over the next 5 years.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 2:51 PM
Thanks Jay, I agree with you – investing in hard tangible assets like gold are one way to maintain purchasing power with the barrage of money printing by the government. Flooding our system with fiat money to stimulate the economy will surely lead to a bout with inflation in the future if not closely monitored.
Sovereign debt will ultimately push gold, silver and other precious metals higher in valuation and price.
Commodities prices will also be ramped higher as global demand increases exponentially.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 1st, 2010 at 4:32 PM
Thanks for your post Keen. I couldn’t agree with you more. Case in point – look at what is going on in Greece with its debt crisis and the possibility that other countries huge debt loads will soon follow suit.
As credit ratings on these countries get downgraded, folks flock to invest in physical assets like gold, silver, and palladium to hedge against that risk.
I believe Gold will drop further as a knee-jerk to the idea that we have commoditie deflation. This is, IMO, a good time to load up on physical gold as a dollar hedge. I like 5% of my assets in physical gold.
Cash is “King” in these turbulent markets. There will be loads of buying opportunities in the coming months. Currently holding between 40% to 50% in cash or equivalents.
This may be a very good time to buy gold and silver as I don’t know just how long the banks, (government) can hold the price down on these investment metals.
Yes. Gold, Rare Earth, and other comodities will go a fair way to sustain a balance portfolio.
The number one investment: silver. Own the physical metal in 1-ounce rounds for about a $1 over spot. Any silver under $20/ounce is a steal. Destined to go up 20% in three months. Load up now. The buying opportunity won’t get better than this. Current ratio silver to gold is 66 to 1. This will continue to grow closer, making silver a better deal than gold. I was buying silver when spot of under $5. I’m still buying at $18.
I don’t see gold soaring this year as a lot of experts expect, because I feel as long as other currency’s around the world are in trouble the US Dollar will stay about where it is or even get a little stronger and foreign investors will still have faith in the U S Dollar and gold will stall. If inflation kicks in this year then all bets are off, but I don’t think that s going to happen.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:02 PM
Thanks for your insight David. The dollar has indeed become the safety for investors avoiding riskier bets and uncertain times.
Inflation however, is much a more difficult thing to predict. Yes, the fed is relentlessly printing money to prop up our economy, however if it doesn’t carefully monitor the situation and stop money printing and end low borrowing rates at the right time, we are surely going to have inflation problems.
I like to buy and sell DGP and SSRI on dips and market turns.
Next Potential Geometric Fit For Gold Feb 7th above 1010 CASH
Silver is the place to be. If the Gold/Silver ratio ever moved back to the more traditional 20/1 silver would need to move up about 2.5 times its current level. As gold moves up, which I believe it will, silver will likely move up greater by percentage.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 4th, 2010 at 2:11 PM
That’s right Gerald, Silver is more volatile than Gold – meaning that it moves with more conviction than Gold to the upside or downside. Silver has been argued as leveraged gold but don’t forget the downside potential as well.
I would have to say both. Gold and Silver, but mostly gold for now.
GOLD and SILVER are probably the best bets out there.
JP MORGUE’N
GOLDMAN SACKED
CITICORPSE
BLANK OF AMERICA
WELLS FARGONE
Are all DEAD BANKS. It matters not how much rigging, market to model, and US govt manipulation goes on….these banks are walking zombies. These are buy far the 5 weakest banks in America. The US EMPIRE has a matter of months or a few years at the most before it implodes. Sorry for being the party pooper. Most Analysts don’t see it coming. When the FIAT DOLLAR dies so will the supply chain that brings goods to market in the LEECH and SPEND SUBURBAN ECONOMY. It will become DOGGY-DOG world out there.
THE US DOLLAR and US TREASURIES are DEAD….it’s just a matter of time before they know it…as well as millions of POOR SLOBS who think they have a SAFE HAVEN.
Good luck.
Until J. P. Morgan liquidates all its short positions in silver, there will only be minor recoveries and then the downward slide will resume. The CFTC, led by Gary Genzler, has scheduled hearings in March on establishing position limits to prevent the current situation from happening again. Read Ed Steer’s daily report for the truth about what is going in int the precious metals market. Ted Butler is another good source.
Marvin:
Several months ago you said you invested one million dollars in the Contra Fund
Is it still 100% invested ?
You said the dollar would weaken, It is getting stronger.
You said gold would reach 1500 in 2010. It’s been dropping ever since then.
What do you say now about the above.?
Martin, As you can see from the following I have been cautious in my approach to Gold for some time now, for many reasons. I do prefer silver at this time as a more stable investment, as it is more aligned with supply and demand for other than purely speculative purposes.
Posted to Forbes Magazine, by jamesmconvey | 11/06/09 12:13 PM EST
The steady movement to Gold has been going on for some time. I began recommending it as a secure hedge, in 2004 when Bush got re-elected, as I felt the American market and markets in general, were already excessively overheated and asset valuation and liquidity factors were “askew.” I did not believe that Bushs’ Financial team understood the dangers at that time, and were still committed to continuing the foolish policies of “Trickle down” economics, that caused the overheating. This, together with the wacky price to earnings ratios in the general stock markets in the older economies, was a clear indication that something had to give!
I do not however believe that further exuberance is warranted in the gold market at this time, and until currency matters and trade protocols are redefined by the G20, I would advise any against further excessive puts into Gold. I think we have reached, or are very close to the top of this current trend, as “loose” supply has evaporated and buying paper certificates based on Gold, can be dangerous, given this factor. If confidence can be restored to the marketplace, as I believe it can and will, by means of new protocols and common agreement upon regulatory controls by the G20 in the coming period, then Gold may well slide back to a lower level of reasonableness. Given the “imperative” nature of this requirement in the world markets, and with the stability and deficit issues facing a significant portion of the world economies, particularly the old G8, I see this happening in a matter of certainly not longer than the early period of 2010. Not a lover of Greenspan policies, I nonetheless will use some of his now famous language of definition. “There exists in the marketplace an excessive exuberance which cannot be justified by any accepted measure of normalcy”. I believe this applies currently to the Gold dynamic at present. Some market “pain” will be caused by the G20 when they redesign the currency and trade protocols going forward. The watchword will be deficit leveling to avoid trade benefit going to any one nation unevenly due to currency undervaluation (RMB as example) resulting in undue deficit advantages.
I am about 60% in gold and silver at this time.I can not see any thing else that i would like to invest in.
Can’t you just see the working class meeting their housing, car, insurance, food, child and elder care, medical and education expenses and having anything left over for gold and silver. The financial institutions suck the working class dry and then flaunt gold and silver! Something is out of balance here, and not making the changes needed to support the Middle Class.
What is the best way to invest in precious metals? metal, etf
forex, etc.
Thanks for bank lookup tool I am selling gold (frgox mining companies still keeping some cef and gld in addition triming 15-20% profit on equity mutual funds in anticipation of an extended correction especially in ira tax free accounts) bond uit ok but will hold for 15 year duration on most No matter what they say last year was a showing buy and hold really can get risky but im very risk intolerant
Get the most for your dollar. Buy some silver to store where you can get at it quickly. Then buy some gold, then depending on the amount you want to invest in precious metals go for platinum. Now if you want paper, such as GLD or SLV, these two are good. BUY NOW? Go with Larry Edelson’s advice. Gold should be hitting the bottom soon.
I’m reading to many opposing views, the $’s up so gold is down, the $ heading down so buy gold, currently I’m invested in gold miners, and ETF’s.
I am loving the oportunity to own DMXC.PK they are busting out right NOW!
We’re told by various analysts that silver will outpace gold, but in my view silver will be a flash in the pan and by the time you want out, in order to buy that which is heading for Jupiter, namely gold, there may not be much gold left to buy. Moreover, silver is bulky and a bit more expensive to store if your acct. is with GoldMoney.com, as mine is. Jim Rogers is gobbling up palladium and I’ve followed suit lately. I’ve not been disappointed. My thinking is: since palladium is the sister metal to platinum, might not car makers substitute palladium in future catalytic converters for expensive platinum? Well, I don’t know why palladium is going up so nicely, I only know it is. So GOLD & PALLADIUM!
The recent price pullbacks present a buying opportunity. I favor silver as an each-way bet: it’s uses are primarily industrial but it is also regarded as a bullion commodity so it will tend to go up with gold. Plus demand exceeds supply and that is unlikely to change.
I am around 30% invested in gold and silver.
As gold is too high priced I get more and better results from buying (and sometimes selling a wee bit) silver There is an acute shortage in the commercial field
Thanks for your efforts to help Pete
For my level of investment, I have been loading up on silver for several reasons. One, it is affordable and I believe underpriced, so in the future it should appreciate more than gold. Second, it is in units that are more easily “spent” or bartered for everyday needs should the dollar really tank. Third, I am wary of this current government and not sure I trust them to keep their hands off the gold. Roosevelt made it illegal to own gold in 1933. If it happened before, it can happen again. Holding gold or silver in foreign denominations may help keep that from happening to ones investment as it is another country’s currency, and hopefully not subject to confiscation by the U.S.
If you have the guts to live with the fluctuations, it is time to load up with metals.
As long as govt’ keeps printing money and banks continue to be net buyers instead of sellers, we will continue to see Gold and Silver as a safe haven.
I have about 30% of my portfolio divided between mining stocks and bullion. Mostly Gold and Silver and a little Platinum.
Yes! Dollar denominated assets are heading down big time.
I think we are presently in deflation as the financial system unravels, with areas of inflation due to government actions. Once that is “finished” (when?), world commodity and investment demand will take over as inflation gets a hold…our view is thus a down in metals, then an up. I doubt if it’s a good idea to pile in and sleep. More like picking
trends, riding them, and watching to take profits. Not sure that a range of metals is really diversified ; do they not ride together ? Also, are governments and large financials manipulating some of these markets ?
Currently short silver, scaling in long gold.
I am too old to take much gamble. When the market takes its next hit, I believe ALL
Stocks will suffer.
Try CD’s and I-BONDS for safety and preserve your capital until a better, safer day
for investing arrives.
Silver is reacting with bigger swings. With the recent downturn in precious metals, silver has dropped dramatically lower percentage wise than gold. I see silver coming back big from the low it is at now. I will be buying more silver, though I cannot be sure this is the bottom of the temporary correction.
I am buying gold and silver, the reason, getting it before the Chinese buy it all up.
I have 12% in gold,silver,mining,in 8 different stocks while cash is 20% earning 6% annual rate in notes which I can withdraw at anytime for investing at some low points.
Other stocks are dividend type stocks.
I’m loaded with silver, it’s less than half it’s all time high while most other commodities are at or near their high’s
5% gold, 3% silver. Silver is junk silver, primarily for survival, not investment.
bill v
Not adding yet, it’s really dicy. As the dollar is still on an up trend due to world economic woes I guess although that doesn’t make sense along with the fact that the China market is down. Sooner or later gold and metals will have to explode to the upside!
Now is not the time to load on gold: US dollar will continu to get stronger(other contries/currency are not in much better shape;As per Larry’s R W Report of September.2009, we have a Major Low Down on Gold in May/June.2010.
Thank you,
Atanas D.
like bonds-Vanguard’s GNMA’s, Short-term investment grade bonds with Vanguard, TIPs with Vanguard. Like the GLD fund for gold, SLV fund for silver. short the long term treasury bond with TBF fund, short s & P 500 with SH fund
Gold is not may favorit, nor the other Precious metals , mainwhile dolar stays lower 1,40.
Rgs.
My idea is that the measure of inflation is now and will be the extent of unemployment. As long as that remains as high as it is I will not be looking for inflation. So bonds are ok for the time being.
I’ve been buying physical gold for a while but have stopped and am waiting a bit in hopes it’ll go under $1000. per oz. If it does, I’ll buy because I believe that as long as Obama’s in the White House, the dollar will continue to drop.
I don’t think that gold and silver and other metals will stay up in value once interest rates go up, which I think they must do eventually, because I don’t know how the Fed will continue to sell our bonds forever at the current low rates.
When that happens – if you can get 5% on the your money as compared to 1.5% for FDIC insured funds, many will leave a stagnant metals market and that bubble will also burst. It may take some time, but I think that will happen eventually.
The banking community of AIG and its shucksters is the work of an illuminati type of conspiracy destined to take down the US. It was planned and orchestrated and approved by members of the government. There is now nothing that can be trusted, not even gold and silver. Just like “health care” you can put no trusts in any financial institution nor currency, the worst is yet to come!
While precious metals had quite a ride in 2009, I still think there’s more to the upside even though we are currently in a short-term correction. Also, for the simple reason that major central banks throughout the world are involved in significant expansions of their money supplies (a.k.a. “quantitative easing”), I believe every portfolio needs a core position which one should not attempt to trade in and out for short-term profits.
I’m buying more physical silver and also gold mining stocks. I expect gold to go to $1800,within next 18 months.
as i said before AAL markets must be avoided and USD cash will be king. Simply look to the last 2 months. Do you see markets which went north? I don’t.
Why;;;Simply because people will scramble for dollars to:
pay mortgages
pay up for margin debts
The big debt is in the US so dollars will be in BIG demand.
I will buy ,but not overload with a truck.JP morgan shorting the silver, I do not know why they have so much influence on the price of gold and silver, can you explain. Yes, palladium I may purchase also.
My savings are mostly with Deffered comp which go directly before tax. I have some mutual funds invested thru AXA BROKER whom i knew. They are in the recovery mode. I am going to invest in the AXA Annuity which will give minimum 5%. I have already invested some(28,000 in 2009) and will raise it to 50,000 as planned with in a year. After 7 yrs I can withraw the entire amt. I have some money invested in Putnum Diversified Income Trust(class A). i AM GETTING 10 % DIVIDENT. THANKS
What do other reades say?
How responsible would it be for me to purchase gold/silver by buying gold wedding bands from the local pawn shop and bags of junk silver coins. Would I have viable purchasing power if our economy was hit with the worst-case scenario. Good or bad idea???
As you say, gold and silver are going up. Both are in short supply and will go up even if the dollar doesn’t go down. Long term gold and silver will go up.
I am heavy in gold and silver mines, even if it is nerve racking. I’m in for the long term.
I also have some Asian stock.
I think gold and silver are wise hedges against a failing currency, but…..couldn’t history repeat itself? Didn’t President FDR prohibit gold coin ownership and using gold as a medium of exchange during the Great Depression in the 30’s? My history is shaky on this but I vaguely remember my grandparents telling me that they were not allowed to own or use gold coins during the GD. Horrors of horrors, they did manage to “sneak” aside one coin just for the heck of it.
During a dire fanancial crisis, couldn’t President Obama, by executive order, do the same thing or similar….in which case our gold and silver would be rendered useless?
Please straighten me out on this.
Adrian D.
I have been buying gold and silver since 2000. Last year I doubled my silver allocation and I plan to buy more gold this year. I plan to begin purchasing gold in the next few weeks and continue buying gold until I have a 25% portfolio allocation.
I like silver because it serves as a barter item at times of financial chaos and seems to have potential for a better return than gold.
All of my new investments will be made and stored outside the United States.
I am buying gold half positions ,end of day today and 2nd half next week, based on technical levels. Bullish percent on GDM may be in single digits by the end of the day, HUI is approaching 200-EMA and 200-EMA on certain mining stocks are being approached.
Last November Bullish percent actually hit zero-don’t know if it gets there this time, so I will leg in with half positions.
Thanks,
Mike
Gold and silver are absolutely necessary for protection against inflation. How can any reasonable investor look at the lessons of history, both long and short term, and not value the safety of hard assets such as gold and silver. I would also place real estate especially income producing real estate in the same catagory.
Our currency is being debased to the point of worthlessness. The authorities will replace our dollar with somethings else at some point in time in what will be a devaluation or subsitute currency at a new reset value.
And perhaps some far off day there may be realization that a currency like any other unit of measure (ie. foot, meter, pound, gallon) has to be definded to be stabilized and only a stabilized and defined measure of value will help to avoid inflation and many of our current financial problems.
yes am bottom feeding on gold ,silver and sterling flatware.
also stocking up on food
a local supermarket is going out of business
bought net $425 which reflects 60-75% discount from retail
lived thru the last depression and will live thru this one!!!
cecil
I would wait till gold goes below 950 and silver below 15 before buying.
Hello Martin
I’ve been long on silver for a few years, rolls of silver eagles, and I own the SLV.
I’m long on one gold stock, Nova Gold Resources.
I am investing in gold and silver. I am presently at about 10 percent of my portfolio. My goal is about 20 percent. Typically, precious medals work in inverse order to the dollar and I believe the dollar will continue to decline with precious medals going up or at least protection from super inflation.
I’m a little peeved by that question, not because of the question itself, but because I just purchased a 1/4 ounce when it was $1130/oz. It seems almost immediately after I clicked the “submit” button, gold prices fell…. and fell… and fell, and haven’t stopped falling since then. HOWEVER, would I do it again? I can say wholeheartedly YES. I just would have waited until today. Gosh darn, when are they going to invent the time machine???
The current market sell-off is sparing no sector it seems. It sounds good to say that SLV is a good hedge against inflation down the road, but gold and silver stocks are punished anyway.
the time for gold is not yet. Watch the rise of the dollar and the decline in the price of gold. At some time in the future, the dollar will reverse and gold will begin to rise. Be patient and watch. Now is not the time.
Oh, and for the other question… I like silver because it’s much, much cheaper. However, gold is much prettier and worth more. Can’t wait for my next tax return.
Last I saw, Gold is 200 plus points above its 200 day moving average. I’m taking a wait & see attitude
Mike,
First thing, I believe investment in US market is safest than others.
second, Alcoa AA is down because of a lot of reverse of Bernake selection, dollar value and state of uinion address.
Bernake was selected for four more years, Obama address that he will increase export means lower us dollar in value means increase in a gas, commodity price like Alcoa AA copper silver and gold which you agreed that price will go up. Bernake also believe in decrease dollar value down and increase export and create more jobs. Simple formula.Please reply on my thought. I need expertise’s suggestion on that issue.
Thanks
Vijay
I think it is a good time to load up on silver! I would watch it until it turns around and buy as much as I can. The supply is going lower world wide and from all that I gathered it has the furthest to go!!!
I am holding aprx. 20% in gold coins, some silver, and stock. Gold is down and probably going some lower in the short. As it cycles I plan to buy more as a mediun to long term investment.
I am frankly perplexed. We should see MASSIVE inflation with the unparalleled deficit spending that is occuring, but if we double dip back into recession or even worse into a depression, we could easily have a deflation. Inflation will make gold more valuable and dollar denominated assets less valuable. Deflation will clobber gold and make dollars worth more. The only thing I am certain of is that the Fed, Treasury, the Republicans, the Democrats and the bankers will make everything worse.
I would place 50% in metals = 20% gold bullion & 30% silver bullion. 20% in Canadian
Oil Sands( SU), 10% silver stock(SLW) 10% Gold stock(GG) 10% cash.
-30-
GOLD first and foremost–coins. It is now 1//3 of my holdings. that is MONEY. the paper we hold is created by the FED and worthless. another 1/3 is my house with no mortgage, an old house (98+/- years old and in town), 1/3 in U.S. Treasuries–shortest term, gold stocks, some stocks.
Always interested in the opinion of conservative Claus Vogt. And your insightful questions.
Thank you
It is too early to load up on Silver & Gold. They are in a downtrend because the $$ is going up and will continue to go up for much of this year. As the Euros and BRICS get furthur into their financial problems the $$ will continue to soar. BUY gold below $700 and Silver below $8.00. The time will certainly come and because they are the only real store of value it is the smart thing to do BUT let the deflation that we are experiencing play out.
I think the best investment for today is silver. It is still undervalued,and anyone can still afford to buy some because you can buy it in just about any size or shape. As I can tell it has NOT been an object of fraud such as gold. Inso far as gold, I only buy old gold.
SILVER….FIRST CHOICE…..YES, TIME TO LOAD UP! GOLD …SECOND !
I’m trying real hard to be an optimist. It’s difficult with Obama, Bernanke, Summers, and that little tax cheat ex-head of the New York Fed, being the brains behind the manipulation of our economy. The only way precious metals become truly overbought for the long term is when the dollar is strong, interest rates are a bit higher, and the U.S. Govt is showing a real budget surplus.
The only way to get there is first raise the hell out of interest rates, something our FRS can do. This will wipe out the housing market, the long term bond market, and commercial property market. Real economic results will be more devastating to our economy than our recent deep recession. However, the sheeple will begin saving again; buying two year c.d.’s paying over 8%. Insurance companies will start buying 8% treasuries. The dollar will begin to recover against foreign currencies. Then when the real economy begins to grow again, there will be an opportunity for a real budget surplus. I think the chance of these things to occur is very slim. I believe we are headed for a very weak dollar against foreign currencies which are tied to natural resources. As our dollar continues to weaken, then gold and other precious metals will continue to appreciate. Only when the U.S. economy is stablized with a budget surplus, will our economy truly recover. As long as there are fiat currencies in the world, precious metals will be safe.
The world will continue to run on commodities for many years. Paper will become less and less valuable. Paper backed by only the faith of governments will continue to decline in value against real commodities.
Oil, natural gas, coal, and precious metals will continue to be in demand, unless the whole world is decimated by by war. I don’t think that is going to happen.
It’s really pretty simple. Buy real assests or companies owning real assets with very little debt. Don’t buy debt. Buy real earnings. For example, a corporation which owns oil and natural gas in the ground, and easily removed, with an ability to continue to buy or find oil and natural gas at a reasonalbe cost; this is a company which will continue to earn money. Those are real earnings. Those companies have true cash flow, and can afford to pay dividends. When the company has very little or no debt, then nice dividends are usually paid to shareholders. If you had bought XOM when the last budget surplus occured, the mid-nineties, then you would have quadrupled your money even though stock prices are well below their all time high. This investing is pretty easy in a down economy, burdened by $trillions of debt. Buy oil and gas; buy gold and silver. Hooray!
Martin,
I have about 25% in Gold and Silver Coins and the major portion is collector coins. I do add with the new issues of Gold and Silver Eagles each year and when I find a good value in old coins. When the market look like it maybe topping I will get out so keep us updated on this market.
Thanks,
Bob
I have both gold and silver. I don’t plan to add more unless gold gets a lot lower. If I did not have gold or silver I would be buying now. I think it will go up again and I think everyone should have some, not as an investment but for protection in the event of super inflation. I am not investing in the market and I think those that have recovered the previous drop would be wise to pull it out. My feeling is this economy is smoke and mirrors. I hope I am wrong.
Sorry guys; precious metals are headed down and the U$$ headed UP^^^. The ravages of the forthcoming bear market will force international loans to be called in and settled in US$ [the original instrument]. Maybe gold will hit $5000 after this major deflation turns into hyperinflation but that is 2-3 years down the road and if you buy gold for “safety” how on earth will the guy-in-the street know when to sell it as PMs drop down 10 times as fast as they rise. I can see thousands of people holding gold when it hits $5000 still holding it when it drops back to $500. Goldman and JP etc. won’t be but Joe Six-Pack will be. I am English but I am just buying a small house for cash in the USA so that is my safety as it will never go down against other property and I can bury cash/”gold bars” [eventually] in the garden – address not supplied. That that Martin Weiss guy is one of the few genuine chaps in the business. Good luck to you all in the “Greater Depression”. Gregg, England.
Everyone wears a different tie so in this case, our choice is Silver. We feel that Silver has a better upside potential than Gold and hopefully, has less of a chance to be called in by the Government. It also has Industrila demand.
i will load up on Gold when it falls o 940
u.s. stock market heading for correcion so also world markets
dollar strenghth will do yhis job
big rally in gold till 2011 after dip.
I am not too sure about gold and silver. I found out that they are not dealt with the same way as ordinary stocks are, when it comes to taxes. The difference could be huge!
Why try to catch a falling knife? I think deflation will be a major theme of 2010, not inflation. Gold is dropping with the sovereign debt problems. Gold may be a long-term buy, but I think in the $600-$800 range.
I have been a gold bug for a long time and still am.The current correction seems to be a good oportunity to buy more.
10% or more in gold/silver. Holding now, will buy more when it hits 950.
Gold and silver needs to be bought on pullbacks. I don’t know if current levels are for loading up big time. We might get abit more weakness. But buying price weakness the last 8 years has worked out very well indeed. I doubt if anybody who only buys on weakness is too unhappy, even at 1075 !!
So I think start scaling in your purchases right now is the prudent thing to do.
The US Dollar might rally some more. But it’s not a safe haven and it’s not in short supply.
Enough propaganda already. Please.
Gold at $1075 warrants some buying. Silver at $16.14 is probably an even better buy.
Although the technical picture for gold stocks as of today look really awful, gold stocks are terribly oversold right here. I am a firm believer in buying low. Yes, i am a buyer in gold stocks at this moment. Gold companies make real earnings, MONEY that is real.
I like gold and as I have assets that I want to put away for 10 years or more, I will purchase either gold bullion or gold type vehicles that are available on the market. I would expect Gold to be between 5%-10% of my future portfolio-I would lean to the lower side if gold hits $1500/oz.
HET
Gold is an important part of my portfolio.
Hi,
I like gold because it has value partly because it is in limited supply. Furthermore, it has been valued throughout history for its lustre and, unlike silver, it does not tarnish. I invest in gold in the form of bullion coins like Pandas, Maple Leafs, and Australian Nuggets.
Regards,
Peter Langer
If you haven’t built up a core position in physical, in your hand metals, then I think this is a great opportunity to jump in. If you have a core position, then averaging in a little physical and continuing to build a cash base may be better IMO. I was a buyer of silver yesterday at $16. I’m not buying gold right now because the gold-to-silver ratio heavily favors silver at 66+. I am not trading, just holding, so no ETFs for me…just straight physical metal.
Gold and Silver yes or no I Trust your view point please comment !
Martin;
I believe gold and silver is real money. It has no liability against it. Paper is paper in any form. Bonds are promises to pay that offer no real guarantee. Every fiat currency has gone to zero eventually. It is the only real insurance and should be at least 15% of any portfolio in my opinion.
Regards,
Steve
I noticed since about 2001, gold makes a fine dollar hedge. I can hold 10% gold, and that will hedge or counter balance about 50% of the rest of holdings US Dollars, as they have dropped in value since 2001. When they say “gold makes a good hedge” it means it really has this function, at least during certain trends.
When ever someone suggests that one load up on something, it usually is a good indicator to get rid of something. People are such liars.
It seems that for the moment the $US is the least ugly of all assets to own…………
My portfolio is Dow short (DXD) and the VIX (VXX) as a short term trade. I am inclined to agree with Roubini that gold is a ‘barbaric relic’. My preference is for silver (SLV, HL), as it has significant industrial uses, as a longer term investment. I also hold oil (USO, PBR) as again in the longer term it must rise in price. The US is in recession or worse, but the BRICS will grow and with it their appetite for oil and all commodities.
Long term gold is a obviously a far better investment than the dollar, but I also see potential for a spectacular return on gold. When one considers the world financial picture, I believe that within the next five years it is probable a financial panic will erupt sending gold to a level that almost defies imagination.
You favor Gold. but you have not explained the essentials or why is this particularily “safe Haven” commodity doing so badly recently.
How does this relate(and why) to the dollar’s strength ??
We have been adding gold and silver for the past 2 years—-outside our investment portfolio. I mean actual coins, not funds. We have paid anywhere from 793 to 1100/oz for gold. Silver has been all the way from 9-18/oz. I figure we have come out ahead about 15%—not bad for the past 2 years, taking all investments into account. These are not to be sold but kept for future possible emergencies. They are our hedge against this massive government spending!!! We may stop buying now as we have the roughly 10-15% of our total holdings in gold and silver, which is what we want.
Over time it seems prudent to maintain a certain percentage of your savings (not investments) in something tangible rather than dollars, or any unbacked currency denominated instruments. Gold and silver can fulfill that role in the long term. The idea that the Chinese Yuan link to our dollar may be the last reason anyone outside the US continues to hold our dollars seems all too real. The continuing implied ability to purchase a certain amount of Chinese goods with US dollars, in the face of continuing dollar devaluation and overwhelming information about our overconsuming and underproducing economy, and lack of will to change it, may be the dollar’s last real leg to stand on. Merely being the world reserve currency in name may no longer have meaning. The de facto world reserve currency would appear to be the YuanDollar.
Gold is the answer for a percentage of your portfolio. I follow Safe Money Report and have the appropriate amount of gold ETF’s and I added gold mining ETF’s in my portfolio. Gold will go up and down but in the long run gold will make me money. I have stops on all my investment. I am in retirement and can’t afford to lose too much money when markets go down that includes gold. In this present down turn in the market, I have not stopped out of any investment. I also follow Real Wealth Report and have invested in some of the recommendations with great sucess. As long as the market is in termoil, gold and commodities are my bag for the long haul. I have about 70% of my portfolio in short term treasury bill Mutual Funds. That money is safe but that’s about all it is. I want that safety for that money.
Thanks Martin for helping guide me while the markets are in flux.
I’m long K-rands & GLD w/puts as downside protection. Losses are limited while a big move up can be multiples of gains vs. the put option cost.
Why not hold equal amounts of each if you can handle that type of investment? Should one rip off to the top you can enjoy the play and gains in the rest as they must play along. It’s early in the cycle at this time to enter as there is more of a down yet to come from 1/20/10 it would seem about 3 to 4 more months of pain. Keep the faith and the metals in hand
Nels
Think it might be a little early, to increase holdings yet, as our President is still returning to his agenda of socialism, you wonder if him & the 546 Reps representing us, will ever learn, as they think increasing defcits they can spend there way out of current problems? If they think everybody beleives you can cut income by cutting Taxes, & increase spending money we dont have, is a soloution, we have an awful lot of morons, in Washington. Dont worry about getting Rich, worry about the country staying solvent
I’m thinking that Gold is going to take a breather for a bit, and settle down to around a G. With the Congressional mandate for a higher percentage of electric vehicals looming very soon, I’m going with the biggest Electric car battey in the world, in China of course, BYD.LDT. WB recently bought a chunk of the company.
My Answer :
Gold Juniors for sure , with plenty of daily volume sales , preferably in the under 20 cents range and with the parameters of proven and excellent management figures , in charge , preferable. I would also include all and any other precious metals in these same parameters . Finally , I’m looking into a future position in the REE commodities , Rare Earth Elements .
Is it good timing to be in the startup of a mining business-(gold/platinum/silver.)?
I have invested in Gold, foriegn stocks like China, Brazil, Oil and others.
small gold mines are very attrctive now — NXG JADE GSS TRE GBG NGD
also calls on AEM ABX CDE GG look good but dont chase these
Bought 300 share SLW at 18.50. Now at 13.50. Seek to buy more on this drop.
Waiting for money in transit from Vanguard to Fidelity. 5 years ago, this would take 3-4 days. This time, now for a Roth IRA, over 3 weeks? “It’s in the process, sir.”
Makes me wonder what happens when panic is in these markets ahead?
And the money transfer is in CASH, Prime MM!?
Buying Permanent Fund Mutual with Gold, Francs, Bonds, Treasuries for long term hold (long term now is 1 year.) Paul
I caution everyone to be very leary of te gold market. It is being driven by speculators who will turn on a dime and get out or turn bearish and go short. My reasoning is that the gold market has had a 10 year run to the upside and has outpaced its ratio to silver by a country mile. In the eraly 80’s when gold and silver were reacing new highs the ratio between gold and silver was 12-1 in favor of gold. Today that ratio has gone out to 70 & 80 to 1. That is a clear indication that gold is way over valued. And why all the hype about the endtimes of currencies is promulgated by gold sellers and speculators.
Since 1980’s high gold is up only about 50%. Silver not any better. (terrible investment)
Probably one of the worst edge against inflation.
If you had put $100,000.00 in precious metals in 1980 it would be worth $150,000.00 today. If you had to borrow this $100,000.00 at say 6% compounded, the interest alone would be about $150,000.00, this means you lost $100,000.00.
Once people try to cash in their gold and/or silver who is going to buy it from them.
My advice stay away from it. Every body and there grandmother is talking about buying gold and silver and you know who is selling it to them.
very hard to try to read the Wall Street power broker’s minds. I am beginning to feel that they really control markets, not the factors that were for so long considered market influencers, such as supply and demand, earnings, etc.
I am trying to continue to exercise patience, and look for opportunity. Do we really know what is going on with China and India buying gold? Is it a precursor to their stopping buying Treasuries? Overall, I think a mix of dividend stocks, perhaps some inverse ETF’s at this point, and some commodity ETF’s might be a good idea.
I buy equity stocks that pay good dividends from 3.5% up to 17.3%
We also have Mutual Funds and 1 annuity that I wish we didn’t have;
as I so far I am beating their yield. Thank you. frosty
Martin,
Our economy is sitting on a dangerous fulcrum teetering between depression and hyper-inflation. So far, the Government has done absolutely nothing, except to make things much worse. I don’t know what the future holds … but for right now, putting a good portion of my money into gold and other precious metals is an excellent strategy for ensuring capital preservation. I prefer to invest in gold rather than the industrial metals … silver, platinum, or palladium. The industrial metals have their own individual dynamics that are sometimes unpredictable. For example, platinum dropped like a rock when auto sales slumped and the metal was not needed in great quantities for catalytic converters.
My current portfolio allocations are as follows:
– Gold Bullion = 17%
– Gold Numismatic Coins = 12%
– Gold Mining Stocks = 18%
The best performing gold investment for me has been gold numismatic coins … up over 100% in less than two years. The best coins to own are NOT the very rare ones. Popular coins like St Gaudens or Liberties tend to perform much better in bad economic times.
The best time to buy gold and silver was ten years ago. The next best time to buy gold and silver is right now. If one has “quiet money” (money not needed immediately or money on which a monthly return is not needed) buy gold and silver now.
If these precious metals should be held as part of an ongoing investment portfolio, we could argue that a basket of commodities (e.g., a diversified commodity ETF) would provide greater diversification than concentration in gold or silver.
Or, for those of us who have a short attention span and a large risk tolerance, are we better served by regular or day trading of commodities as opposed to longer term investment, viewing all the world as a casino rather than a stage, where all we can do is learn the game as best we can, go by our instincts, choose which odds we are comfortable with, and place our bets?
Or, for those of us who are more conservative, should we discard precious metals as a viable investment (since they have not lived up to the hype of being inflation hedges), but consider holding physical as insurance against currency devaluation or collapse? In this scenario we would treat the cost of ownership as an insurance premium, with great leverage potential, rather than part of our investment portfolio. Larry Edelson wrote an interesting piece on 4/2/2009 in which he opined that if only 10% of U.S. debt were monetized, gold would be priced around $5,300 an ounce. In that scenario, of course, one might expect the government to forbid – or at least restrict – public ownership of gold, so perhaps the physical would need to be held outside the U.S.
So, what to do?
Gold and silver are still just waiting for the next explosion in price. This will occur when the shortage of silver finally hits the supply of silver. Then gold will follow suit, because gold will always be regarded as THE monetary metal.
You list likely to fail:
JPMorgan & Trust Company, NA CA $11,246,746
and recently Chase BAnk that I have an account with now shows their letterhead as:
JPMorganChase! Does this make Chase more vulnerable to failure? Should I move my account?
Kenneth H Hickman……
Precious metals are things you can depend on. Those colored pieces of paper which corrupt governments substitute for money have dropped in value tremendously and will continue to do so.
Silver. It will beat up all other metals
I am shifting to a mixture of cash (instantly available) and precious metal shares and bullion. I believe that paper money is being trashed by the central banks and when it crashes it will be a sight to see. I am buying stocks slowly on the dips. I believe that both gold and silver will hold their value long term. Let others who believe in the competance of Ben Bernanke and Little Timmy Geithner hold their money in treasuries and fiat investments.
Martin…my comments today are directed toward your approach of gaining insight into your readerships current views on investment strategies. I highly applaud your logic regarding listening to the masses to see if your own views are resonating out there with them or if there are counter currents which may have escaped your own team of experts screening techniques.
For many years (during my working career) I was charged with exploring innovation in the field of forecasting new product and market developments for a fortune 100 company. Using techniques such as the “Delphi” method which has a similar structure to what you are currently doing, along with much more exotic extrapolation and correlation methods used during the 70’s and the 80’s I and my team did a fairly credible job of predicting “Likely” trends over a 12-18 month window. Even then, predictions beyond 2 years were stymied by unforseen and unpredictable changes in the world status quo.
The main point I wish to leave you with, is that our greatest success at predicting market trends, economic variables, and government interventions came from a relatively small base of non traditional experts that took us several years to identify and persuade to join our forum. These folks as you may have already surmised came from a very diverse set of working backgrounds including engineers, retail bankers, blue collar workers, truckers, local government administrators, realtors, housewives, and single parents just to name a few. Notice the absence of professional investment counselors, brokers, economists, hedge fund managers, governmental experts,financial gurus,etc. It seemed to us, that the closer our predicting teams were to the day to day realities occurring on main street rather than wall street or the international monetary scene, the greater was their sensitivity to the small changes in buying and investing behavior that preceeded the eventual large movements in that direction.
In closing, let me say how much I have been enjoying your various e-mails and efforts to keep all of your subscribers tuned into what you sense may be coming. From my own perspective there is no perfect crystal ball, and as more of your readers share their own views on the best investment bets for them personally, you may wish to start looking for a small (no more than12-15) panel that reflects very diverse points of views from your own, so that you can reflect off of your own much more sophisticated resources and data base to see if and or when they actually resonate together.
Thanks for listening to this rather long and unplanned rant. I wish you and your entire team a fantastic year ahead full of personal and professional success.
Sincerely,
Dan Spedale
danspedale@cox.net
Thank you so very much for providing insight. Have chosen silver as opposed to gold, understanding clearly gold has a much better profit margin. Under these conditions, one must consider the ultimate and silver seems much more versatile in addition to other “items.” Indeed, there are other options and opportunities, and such seems to be quite profitable. Who knows? Must be prepared as best possible for whatever takes place.
just me
I am about 80% invested in gold and silver. I believe the sell off is due to the JP Morgan and HSBC manipulation. If you look at a daily graph you can see the exact minute they start the sell off each day.
Silver. It will beat up all other metals. I believe it is going to happen at the end of this year.
Marek
I am researching the value and appreciation for Morgan Silver Dollars. I have been told they are going for $45 per dollar. This will be my first investment in coins and I don’t want to throw good money after bad advice. Will you enlighten me or suggesd my best buy. I want to spend no more than $4,500 to $5,000. Thank you, Betty
I haven’t purchased gold because it’s value is derived by investment speculation without the support of industrial or commercial use to rationalize and stabalize it’s value. I’d much rather own commodities or stock equities whose value is derived from the commercial and/or industrial business market place.
Yes. The current gold value is a buy sign.
Silver – a big yes. We are actively seeking those who are ready to sell coins, silver , gold, American or otherwise, including of course those of numismatic value to offer via our online only auction bidding platform. We are seeing bidders willing to compete to buy these items, often willing to go well beyond established retail values on items in better condition or items of any rarity. But more importantly, bid beyond current spot value on less than collectible items or items of scrape value, such as stamped sterling, .800 European silver and less than 24c. gold jewelry, due to speculation in this market .
Rarely has it been a better time to sell as well as buy these items.
The market is badly overvalued and heading down. We are in for a 1931 style repeat. With the drop, treasuries and dollars will be safe haven and gold like other commodities will also drop. There will be a time for gold, after the fed reacts to the drop and floods the market with enormous $$ causing later massive inflation.
While I would prefer to hold the metals this would incure the storage problem. I have about 20 percent in mining stocks, 10 percent in energy and oil, 10 percent in cash and the remainder in stocks that pay dividends of 3 percent or more.
Sean was calling for a short term rise in silver to $25-We’re going the wrong way. A time to average and buy more?
Dear Martin,
I am a Canadian advisor and am using the Millenium Bullion Fund which consists of 1/3 gold, 1/3 silver and 1/3 platinum as a cash component for client’s portfolio. All of the metals are segregated, allocated and stored in the Bank of Nova Scotia vault in Toronto. This fund granted me permission to actually view the metals that are being stored on our behalf. (The missing gold from the Canadian Mint prompted that request).
I am also using Government of Canada short term bonds, T-Bills, and for growth I am invested in gold and silver shares with Sprott Asset Management.
I thoroughly enjoy reading your daily commentary.
Jane
I sold all of my gold stock today,lost several thousand $,buy again when it starts up again,still have 2 silver stocks,GFS
Believing that the Fed policy willl be ultimately highly inflationary, I have been building a selection of silver and gold ETF’s in principally in equity ETF’s. As the precious metal sector with its volatility can be particularly volatile, I try to build share count by selling run ups and buying the down drafts. In my opinion, the gargantuan size of US debt will have to be inflated away with significant damage to the value of the US Dollar!
BKM
Yes…I like gold and silver. I believe over the long haul they both have a long way to go. I’m watching closely to increase my position at an opportune time.
Yes, I have 20% in gold and silver and wish I had more.
I am investing directly in JVs with known overseas producers in countries whose institutions have little toxics or derivatives. Payment is in non USD or species.
Hi Martin, I just sold my GLD which I have had for less than a year. It looks to me 50 50 that there is going to be more declines before buying again
I would think gold and silver buyers think inflation is coming down the road. If that is true, then soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, fertilizer , etc would also increase in price along with gold and silver (don’t forget other precious metals) and realestate (housing). In other words all hard assets would increase in price.
jm
I agree with Ron Howard and Gilbert A
Silver and Gold have started to decline. My reasons are:
1) Silver has already changed it’s trend downwards. High of 19.45 and a lower high around 18.75. The low was 16.72 and this past week it touched 16.00 before closing at 16.23. This behavior does not follow the normal pullback behavior we have seen in the past. I am holding ZSL and may load up GLL when a confirmation forms.
2) From a contrarian perspective, most of the news media and general population is saying to buy gold and silver. If everyone is already buying it, who is left to keep the momentum up? Bulls outnumber bears by a large amount. I will stand on the side of the line with the least number of people.
3) The dollar has also changed trends and is making a decent headway. This will result in equities and commodities falling. UUP is very attractive.
Inflation is coming, but not yet. I’m not jumping the gun just because everyone thinks it “should” happen.
Mandeep Singh Rai Reply:
February 3rd, 2010 at 8:33 AM
Nick, it sounds like you are contrarian investor that, among other analytics, monitors sentiment. I commend contrarians as they are mavericks that have to be disciplined to stay the course even as most others disagree. But, as the Oracle of Omaha so aptly put it, “…be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful”- Warren Buffet, 2004. These mavericks, when right, are often the winners of a windfall of profits.
As you know, Nick, timing is most difficult thing to judge. Even though you have careful analysis, putting money into bets at the wrong time could hurt until the analysis proves correct. Stay tuned, we will have more on timing coming your way soon.
I don’t see how JP Morgan et al can keep the price of Silver down much longer. I believe we are at bottom. Silver should triple this year. Gold to 1650 by this time next year. Buy Monday.
The overall long term downward trend for the dollar will continue. Do not be fooled by the recent increase in the US Dollar index. Do you really trust our politicians to bite the bullet and demonstrate fiscal responsibility ? Gold, and silver will continue their upward trajectory in the spring. Look for new highs later this year. Buy bullion on the dips.
started “to nibble” in precious metals in ‘00 or ‘01. since Nixon cut us loose completely from a gold standard, the dollar has been in free fall. FDR started this garbage by confiscating gold from citizens. whether a politician,judge,lawyer,professor states they want to “level the playing field”, that is a polite way of saying “re-distrubition of wealth”; makes no difference if they try to label themselves as liberal,progressive,marxist, or socialists. it is not capitalism, which is what made this previously great Country work. it was the individual, without being controlled by eliteists.
the only reason for the growth of the mutual fund industry was a marketing ploy which worked on individuals who thought someone else cared about the monies they had earned and saved. sad but true. be careful who you trust.
When 50% of your tax dollars are going to just pay the interest on the money the government has borrowed from China, you are witnessing a direct massive transfer of our wealth. To add insult, the FED, charges the US government to print the money, every dollar comes with interest, making it impossible to EVER repay the debt without having inflation. I think its all part of a more sinister plan to fully implement NAFTA, US Canada, and Mexico as one union, by causing/allowing events to occur that would ruin the dollar and cause all those who sought a safe haven by investing in Gold and Silver, to loose their forturs as well. I see the Amero on the horizon…
Three years ago, when I truly understood what a CDO really meant, I freaked and sold half our stock investments and put in mostly pre-1933 gold coins, physical silver and metal ETFs. I also stashed euros in a Greek bank. Luckily, sold the ETFs when gold first hit $1100 and bought gold mining stocks, and adding to jr. miners. The only thing not working optimally for me right now are the stocks I’ve held on to. I don’t know what it would take for me to sell my gold coins — I’d rather drive without insurance than do that!
Hi Martin:
The majority of my noney is now in real estate (too late!), precious metals and cash.
The precious metals money money in good ETF’s such as CEF/GTU, coins (semi-numismatic and bullion), mining stocks, development stocks and royalty stocks.
At this time, I have zero conventional stocks and zero bonds, although I may buy energy stocks after the market crashes again.
Hi Martin:
The majority of my money is now in real estate (too late!), precious metals and cash.
The precious metals money money in good ETF’s such as CEF/GTU, coins (semi-numismatic and bullion), mining stocks, development stocks and royalty stocks.
At this time, I have zero conventional stocks and zero bonds, although I may buy energy stocks after the market crashes again.
Silver appears to be a better investment than gold in that it is less expensive to purchase and on a percentage basis has had a higher return than gold in the last 12 – 18 months.
I have been buying gold and silver for some time. Adding when the price are in a downswing. The percentage of my portfolio is approx 25% because the value of the dollar will continue to decrease as the government deflates itself out of debt.
Gold stocks have taken a bit of a correction. But I still feel that Gold is still a good investment. I have about 5% invested in Gold. I have not invested in silver, or the other precious metals yet.
I’ve relied on GLD for my position in gold. From what Martin’s boys are saying, we are headed for a pull back in gold and a prime time to add to gold positions…
For weeks several advertizers have carried repeated TV ads in our local stations, so I wrote a letter to the local newspaper editor thereon. You may have a copy if you wish. I pointed out that gold is a speculation not an investment. It does not pay dividends. One ounce does not grow to two ounces. It is a gamble that one bought from somebody not as smart as you and will sell sometime also to somebody not as smart as you. But those two think you are the stupid one. Like all gambling, it is a losers game at least on average. When gold sold for $1000 some years back the suckers who bought later saw the price down about $250. Recently at $1200 the price would have had to have been $1800 to produce the same buying power as that earlier $1000 price. And that is before commissions, carrying cost et al/
I have about 11% of my portfolio in A gold mutual fund.Grew from about 5%.
An additional 8+% in natural resource fund.Gre from 5%.
I intend to hold as long as we print money.
Dear Friends,
1. dierivatives, trillions of dollars of them, casinomindmentality, when will this end, and
what are the consequences i.e. 2008 calamaity and how will that further weaken our e
weaken our economy?
2. How long can our government keep printing (unproductive money) and the economies
of all of the other countries, Britian etc. without an eventual collapse. “straw that
broke the camels back?
3. Since “fake money” our dollar, euro etc. is easily manipulated by governments,
“and our consitution forbid that since our “founding fathers” were “no fools”
what is left after the “straw that broke the camels back” – other than gold, silver
etc.
4. Since our stock market is also a “gamblers paradise” everyone trying to get rich
by “taking it away from someone else” – and – eventually there are more losers
than winners, despite alll the “experts” out there – how long can deceptive
of the “bigtime traders” be “tolerated”? When will they be “caugth with their
best down” – they certain deserve it – even in a socalled laize faire system which
was originated set up to “dupe the naive of course”
5. What do you think will determine what the end result will be between deflation
inflation? Since we are printing money faster than the presses can keep up –
many charts point to deflation -?
6. If the “wise ones” are parking their wealth in safe securities, treasury bills, how in
God’s Universe can we recover from our recession? Just by our government
“making work” – its like taking money from one pocket and putting into the other
pocket! Who is fooling who here? and why would the “big boys” refuse to “take
risks” especially when it is a “known” fact that CEO’s are “dumping their own
stocks.?
7. Apparently the public is only “fed” information that the “big boys”+our treasury
adm.+ the Federal Reserve want them to know – that is obvious to anyone with
just a “half-of-a-brain”
8. We are headed for another “crash” for only one reason, and one reason alone
our banking institution supported by our Federal Reserve System – along- with
the backing of our political system despite all of the “rhetoric to the opposite”
which is needed to stop “riots” – know whats coming since they are the cause
of the recession/depression that we are now experiencing!
9. Unless they start “spreading the wealth” by letting loose the money that they
have “stolen from our citizens and from our government” – we will never ever
get back to “normalcy”
l0 The word “honorable” in front of all of our politicians names even the corrupt
ones, are only there “to impress”- not to live up to unfortunately.
ll. Democracy needs politicians unfortunately – honest politicians, where are they?
maurice rothman
the smart ones over here are loading up on gold and silver and Platinum ( not much Palladium as we pay a 10% gst on it for some reason on buyig and selling it ) but no tax on the others.
some investors like myself are also buying aussie gold stocks and small cap gold companies that will be producing in the next 2 years. the gold stocks will go down like all else in the markets until they de-leverage themselves as gold and silver and Platinum and maybe Rare Earth metals come into their own. The average aussie over here has no idea what is happening as our economy is still powering along and we will have another quarter percent interest rate rise on tuesday. The aussie fed rate of interest will be smack on 4%, compared to our US counterparts which is one quarter of one percent. Any thing that u have to say, will help me on this forum, will help me greatly as a lot of people are starting to slowly listen to my rants now in Sydney. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
We still have a few hundred shares of KGC, SWC, GBG …. held for enough years that our prices are $0.75 (Bema Gold), $2.50, and $1.00, respectively. Have actually considered selling them from time-to-time while pondering while swimming …. only to find that they dropped while I was swimming !! … and, besides not having any real reason to sell when so many are saying that gold and palladium will still be going up.
Are we going to buy more? … or any bullion ? ….. No and No.
We do not have enough money or time-and-energy to play such a game.
For income, we have our small government pensions …. and cash flow still coming from some Canadian oil & gas trusts (and former trusts) as well as some utilities.
For gambling purposes, we have been slowly accumulating small uranium, molybdenum, and rare earth minerals companies since 2006 …… these are much more needed to keep critical things such as power plants, desalination plants, wind turbines, motors & generators, etc. being built than gold and silver.
Junior miners ETF and RGLD plus a Brazilian mine and Couer d’lane, HGVLY. Wouldn’t mind a few ideas. Gold has always been a good Idea, but my timing has always been lousy. BOB
I am buying 90% junk silver everytime Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve manipulate the markets. It’s obvious beyond a shadow of a doubt that it’s a “suckers rally” and the markets are rigged. I am MORE THAN CONVINCED that BOTH political parties work and are controlled by Wall Street and Ben Bernanke’s reconfirmation says it all. They are all bought and paid for except Ron Paul. We must take our country and govt back by VOTING almost ALL of them out this November 2010. A really terrific website to visit for proof on what I’m saying is to listen to Bob Chapman and his website is: http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com and everybody should watch “Fall of the Republic: The Presidency of Barack H. Obama” very informative to say the least.
IVE STOPPED CONTRIBUTING TO MY IRA, IM INTO MOSTLY SILVER COINS, MORGANS BEING MY FAVORITE. SILVER SEEMS TO HAVE MORE THAN INTRINSIC VALUE, AND I CANT CRY ABOUT ITS APPRECIATION, THIS PAST YEAR. THE US MINT IS A GOOD SOURCE OF INFO , AS IS COIN WORLD, A WEEKLY MAGAZINE
Hello, I can tell you that there are some facts that will happen this year. #1- The EURO will basicly collapse! You will see Euro to Dollar fall to 1.00 Euro to 1.07 Dollar about August 01,2010. Then By December you will see 1.00 Euro to .87 Dollar. The Dollar will se some strong fake improvements by christmass. Then by March 2011 the EURO will completely collapse! The whole so called European Union will be a complete economic depression disaster! Russia knows this and is now buying Canadian Dollars instead of Euro’s. Japan will be also in some serious Economic Depression no latter than July 2011. China then will have a non functioning currency in July 2011 also, There monetary system will so over heat that Inflation will colapse from the core. The US Dollar will look so solid by July 2011 that people will be demanding it once again for all international currency. You can also look for Brazil to become a slow dominating force that by 2012 will be the US of South America. India is also a disaster that will follow somewhat in mid 2011 also, This country will be in a world war by late 2011. We will come out of this by early 2012 showing STRONG Emerging Economy only for about one year and then the US will enter the second great depression. I can see gold at $600 an ounce by August 2010, Then by July 2011 the ounce of gold will be about $350 an ounce. Oil will make ENORMAS gains early this year and to mid next year at about $230 a barrel. So my best advise is By July 2010 start buying ALL the oil stocks you can get your hands on! Get rid of EVERYTHING that you have EVERYWHERE and buy OIL!!! This is by far the best Advise that anyone could ever tell you, Good Luck and make ALL the money….
Hi Martin,
Hope things are going great at your side.
Your articles are interesting and knowledgeable.
As you are aware, I assess your site in India.
It would be very helpful, that the advice given is for Indian shares. Were then I would be able
to purchase ( buying rate and selling rate).
with regards
ajay
I’m investing entirely in American Silver Eagles that I can hold in my possession. Partly because I’m a disciple of Robert Kiyosaki, but mostly because I have absolutely no faith in our government and I believe that they are intentionally destroying the dollar in order to further their socialist agenda.
My research has indicated that numismatic coins hold up better than owning bullion; I do have some which is a “rainy day” insurance…but am looking at silver as perhaps a commodity that will do well IF we get some recovery..,,,would like to hear other thoughts on this.
50% gold silver bullion 40% gold mine stocks. 10% worthless $$$.$$
invested in treasuries. need somethingee that gives income
i believe in gold and silver as a way of protecting my wealth i am 25% gold 50%silver 25% cash pending any change in situation , i am also well invested in what we may call the real world 100% love for family and friends well planted out with lots of fruit veg and salad chickens free range i live in the uk often overlooked by internet investment “gurus ” but we are still here, probably much to the amazement of our government who,s purpose seems to be to crush us , i trust in god god is with me , god bless you martin for i know god is with you as well, you are a decent man as was your father before you , maybe my investments are wrong but that gut feeling from the soul ,you must follow
with much love to all of you and kindest regards jeff poor uk pome
Hi, Rodney K.
I have about 50% in gold, silver, metals, natural resources areas, just today I bought some NGD @ 3.98 could not resist, waiting to buy Fsumy @ 19.41 also TGB, and CMFO at 6.01 etc. I recently purchased
I sold RSX when it was higher and also sold others like TUR, ECH etc. hoping to buy sometime soon
My job in the past has been design, construction, and solar-geothermal related business, but at the moment that is about 90% quiet, (dead)
There should be a way for a person to by gold/silver coins with out
government supervision and high dealer fees / sales tax.
While in the army in Germany in the’60s I purchased a U.S. Double Eagle
from a bank at the teller window. I am sure there was a fee built in to the
price (no free lunch). There was no paper work etc. involved.
It would be nice if this could happen in the U.S.
At the bottom of the Crash, no fiat currency will be as acceptable as REAL money, which has three characteristics: 1. It’s universally recognizable, 2. It’s divisible, 3. It has its own intrinsic value. The ONLY medium of exchange that has all of those is gold. It will eventually rise above all fiat currencies, but first, it will follow the cycle of deflation to levels not believed today. The problem, of course, is availability. When it’s “cheap”, you might not have the wherewithal to acquire it. So, get some now while you still can.
its timeto buy gold up to 10 percent of portfolio.silver i don’t know
remember 1979-1981? if i did not i would put all my financial assets in GLD. i am tempted now because the fed will not or cannot raise interest rates. what are the signs they are raising rates?
I believe that investors can best prepare for the Decade of Decline by first deciding where NOT to invest. The surest losers will be stocks (foreign or domestic), bonds (Gov’t or corporate), money markets, annuities, and commodities. Even the gold and silver bugs are doomed unless they think governments will not stand behind their fiat currencies. The best investments for the future will be to Short the above list. For an immediate return you should invest $90 in a garden which can produce $500 worth of groceries in less than 4 months. That’s a RoI of over 500%.
My gross income is $100,000.00-$110,000.00 per year. HOWEVER, MY DAUGHTER HAS NON-HOSKINS LYMPHOMA (1O YRS+). INSURANCE DOES NOT COVER ALL THE MEDICAL COSTS, SO I HELP AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, WHICH I’M HAPPY TO DO. I HAVE DEPLETED ALL RETIREMENT FUNDS TO ZERO. LATELY I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT SOME OF THE INVESTMENT PROGRAMS ONLINE AND HAVE SUBSCRIBED TO SOME LOW COST ONES. I’M 68 YRS. OLD AND NOT IN THE BEST OF HEALTH, SO LONG TERM INVESTMENTS ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOREX AND OPTIONS HAVE CAPTURED MY ATTENTION, I KNOW THERES MORE RISK AND I DON’T HAVE A LOT OF KNOWLEDGE EITHER. ANY SUGGESTIONS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.
I am watching the price of gold right now. I am expecting the price to drop and maybe will add to what I already have when I think it has reached near-bottom as best I can judge. I think that will occur during 2010 when stocks in general fall to their bottom. That may occur when interest rates are raised to the point where everyone is yelling “uncle” at which time I may buy more gold and will check to see whether investing in income yielding vehicles will give me the level of income I desire. At the “uncle” time, after buying enough for income, with the left-over cash (I am holding a fair amount of cash at the moment) I expect inflation to hit like a bomb and consequently I expect gold to shoot up. I hope to then buy more gold when the skyrocketing starts. That’s my plan, but I know that the best laid plans of mice and men oft go astray.
Putting at least a portion of one’s cash in gold and silver has to be looked at as a type of insurance against the bound-to-happen inflation in the not too distant future. If we were ti have asset deflation, gold will never be worth nothing, and assets having fallen in price, will still be accessible if you cash in your gold. But that is the worst case scenario, for gold. Looking at the big picture we have past, present and even near-term government deficits and their attendant requisite interest payments, and knowing that even though higher interest rates are the only solution to inflation, and may shortly become the only way we will get anyone to fund our deficit spending, we should realize taking this route will bring us to default. There simply isn’t enough money short of complete government confiscation to pay those bills. So where does that leave us? The only solution is flooding the economy with more cash and more debt {really they are the same.} That is inflation. We had a chance to tell the big financial institutions to pay their own bills, we missed it, and now the national debt has ballooned beyond comprehension. To prevent this from happening, the Feds would have to institute draconian controls that would make Stalin smile. They would have literally kill the free enterprise system with currency and price controls and rationing.
They would have to institute martial law. Will that happen? I don’t think so. I don’t think they will confiscate gold this time. This isn’t 1933. People are a thousand times more informed than 75 years ago. There will probably be massive inflation, unless the world comes to its senses and institutes a metal-backed currency. But a sound currency would mean the end of socialism. It may happen, but not before the current regimes mess it up so bad that inflation rings a bell we will all hear. Gold and silver? Yes!
Definitely safety with a 60-40 work-based 401K, a variable annuity with a reputable company, a high interest 6 or 7 year CD (I have 6 %), separate stock fund with dividend yielding favorites (I like telecom/technology) with little trading and liquidity in a money market account of course–throw in a dash of art to enjoy and coins to collect–this is along with your pension (if you’re still lucky enouhg to have one) and early social security to pay the utilities…………..mj
I have found that the best advice concerning precious metals comes from Larry Edelson and Sean Brodrick so I act based on whatever they are recommending.
all of the above Marty
Hi Larry, Based on my ongoing and focused economic fundamental, technical, and cycles analysis, I have to say, I am becoming more and more convinced we are heading into a deflation trade short to intermediate term, similar to a “mini 2008 scenario” which also rhymes somewhere between the Great Depression and the lost 2 decades of Japan. I am now more aligned with your WEISS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT division vs. your UNCOMMON WISDOM research division. Therefore, since the end of last year, I have shifted OUT of gold stocks into Cash , Short/Long Treasuries, S&P Short SH ETF, Up Dollar UUP ETF. I still have my CORE Gold/Silver holding at 15% of assets. I DO NOT see a bond crash at this time. Just like Japan with JGBs, capital is flowing back to perceived safety and that means Cash, US Dollar and Treasuries. Thus, the stock market will pay the price at this time, which will “protect” the bond market and allow the Fed and Treasuries to continue with money printing and quantitative easing. This is the best situation we can hope for this year as the economy remains on life support. Most people do not realize that the BOND MARKET and CURRENCY MARKETS ARE MUCH LARGER than the STOCK Market. If we were to lose the currency and bond markets, which I DO NOT see AT THIS TIME, then we would be in a real depression within weeks to months. I do not see this for at least 6 months if at all. The US and Europe could easily be in a multi year bear equity market, while the bond market remains in tact with low interest rates and that is a very, very good thing for an economy on government life support.
I got out of the market just before the big bust. I am now in CDs and a very low interest money market fund but do have about 10% in a gold ETF and 5% in EWZ. I’m playing a waiting game.
Now is the time as the dollar will fall again quickly.
Hi Martin, i,m a very new investor in the stock market, (2 years) and i have made big and very big mistakes, but my father always told me, if your learning something new, prepare to loose and learn from your mistakes, and yes he was right!!! I have now started to get the greed out of me, and settle for small returns, rather than wait for big returns, which rareley happen, and if they do its a bonus. Going back on the subject in matter, i beleive gold and silver will be our saviour for 2010. Thanks
I am a novice at investing (less than a year); nevertheless I made a tidy profit last year, as most of your readers probably did. This year I am practically allergic to the US except for gold ETFs and an inverse Treasury Bond ETF. Some of the overseas stocks, esp. Brazil and China, have tanked pretty bad in the past 2 weeks but generally I’m sticking with foreign markets. I don’t feel savvy enough with currencies to get into them yet. I’m trying to navigate a huge, dark forest with a flashlight at this point, hoping to find my way home to the other side.
Since the USA is in a debt deflation, buy the dollar and sell gold and silver. We’re in a cross between Japan and USA 1929. The reflation bounce is done, now it’s hammer time.
I notice you have not been talking about gold to much recently, are you still of the opinion that it will still make $2500 before long?
Almost every economist agrees that with the record spending, printing money and debt creation by this Administration, history says that sooner or later inflationis coming. It might also be hyperinflation this time!
So the questions is, when? If you wait to long, you pay a higher price.
I might also add, that there are numerous reasons why we may soon the price disparity between Gold and Silver shrink! Primarily because the supply of Silver is more in demand and less than it is for Gold.
I think we may have a short period here where the dollar stabilizes or even strengthens a bit, very short. If gold, silver or platinum drop in price along with the major producing mining companies, I will buy more of all of the above. About 35% of my portfolio is in precious metals, 35% in dividend paying MLP’s or energy trusts, 10% in rare earth mineral mining exploration and or production, 10% in a few companies that are on the front line of green energy needs and 10% in cash and US short term treasuries.
It seems like the top of the rare metals market. I do believe that there will be much more inflation since our dollar has been devalued and we are circulating more money to create jobs. I have had very little luck in picking stocks or mutual funds…buy high sell low.
I had an investment in Parnassus Fund but sold it. This Fund invested in good companies that had good relations with their employees and no defense or tobacco or polluting industries. I would like to invest in solar, wind energy, geothermal or some other industry that will have an advantage due to its clean energy.
I believe that all precious metals will be a very good long-term investment. Specifically silver is my favour. In 1980 the government Silver Inventories was about 320 million ounces of silver, in 2004 was only 120 and since then we have a gradual decrease. In late 2007 the number dropped to 55 million ounces. Now consider two facts, first compare to gold silver is an industrial use commodity, and second the future demand will increase for products that need silver to be produced. So we have the basic supply / demand principal for a skyrocketing price in silver. I am definitely buying silver.
anytime is a good time to buy gold as a hedge aganist inflation or world disruption. i started buying at $220 and also bought some at $1120. gold makes up about 13% of my holdings. I do not worry about it or think about it. it just there in case things go wrong, and thats worked pretty good so far. what do you thinl?
Martin I would say that gold may go down for a while but it is a good buying opportunity. The best place is in copper as all electric cars will need a lot of it. China will need the most and is buying hand over fist. Agriculture is another good area. Water
purification I think is the best area to buy. I have a lot of gold coins and gold stock
just to have insurance against the governments stupid actions. Jere
I remember the depression, when we had silver dollars, gold five dollar pieces etc. That was real money. I loaded up on silver when it was around five dollars and gold when it was three hundred. No sucker stocks for me, they only make the brokers rich. When JP morgan and all of the other one trillion short sellers of silver go broke, it will outpace gold. Does anyone accept the notion, that we still have gold in Ft. Knox? Prove it. All the gold ever found in the last 6,000 years is still around, what about silver, is it all still around.
Hi at this point in time i am 60% short term money market ( 90 day bank bills ) paying 6% return and no tax so that is good . I have 25 % gold bullion and coins and 15% silver bullion and silver coins.
I run my own super and have made on average 14% return for the last 6 years so again i am happy with that.
Shares in Australia are paying around 2% return so you take into effect the tax selland buying fees and you are in the negitive that is not am investment in my book.
Bank deposits are covered by the gov. ifthe bank geos bankrupt i still get all my money back by the Federal gov.
Regards Dennis
Given the shortage of physical silver, I believe silver mining stocks will do well in an inflationary environment. Deflation is still a treat with huge debts around the world to be paid down. Silver will perform with deflation as well.
Oil prices will remain at $70.00 or higher for the forceable future. Oil stocks will outpace inflation as peak oil has come and gone. Oil will continue to be available at higher prices. i read an amazing ststistic recently: if every vehicle in the US was a Prius, there would be no necessity to import oil.
I cannot understand why the US government does not encourage the use of kits to switch vehicles to run on compressed natural gas as T. Boone Pickens suggests. Trucks would convert well also. Most gas stations would have room for the necessary storage and pumps.
The main reason the US is in trouble is that the US foreign policy is predicated on having cheap oil – hence the wars in Iraq, Afganistan and the grovelling to Saudi Arabia, where most of the 911 attackers came from.
I am actually afraid of gold and silver. especially gold. Other than ETF’s the actual gold is hard to sell at a reasonable price locally. Try going to your bank with a gold coin and cash it in for dollars. The commodities such as oil and gas seem better bets. I am afraid gold will crash like it did in the 80’s. It is not really an investment. It is like going to vegas. I bought an i-bond today for my wife. The ibonds and tips seem like good investments from an inflation perspective. We do not have inflation now, but I am beginning the accumulation. The other good investments in an inflation situation would be large cap stocks like JNJ, McDonalds, Walmart. I am thinking the markets are overpriced and currently I am down to 18% equities. I would like to be at 40%. Real Estate will also be good, but it is also overpriced and likely diminish. China is scary- their real estate market will be a big downer. Michael
Yes because the monetary policies of US and other major central banks will continue to debase major currencies . I have 7 percent of my portfoio in GLD, GDX and SLV etfs at present. I intend to boost it to 10% over the next few months.
Silver has ranged from 15/1 1667 to 100/1 in 1941. Today it is 66/1.
Palladium goes up as the production in industry demands (catalytic converters etc). So it seems to be seasonal. Platinum is much more rare and like Rhodium,Palladium are used in industry which the U.S. is failing.
If you take physical control of your metals you have a choice of 66 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.
Because of my age and very limited retirement income, I buy a few junk silver coins every month.
I have found in most instances it is easy to make a small fortune but you must first start with a large one.
The dollar is whipped, and yet it is better off than the pound.
In the end you can’t eat any metals to live. Food storage and gardens are wise.
mini futures contracts only. silver every dollar higher or lower no duplication. gold every 100 dollars.
Pay cash for an affordable place on the beach in Belize, then ditch the US citizenship, so Uncle Sam cant get his grubby hands on the hard earned income you make while living there. Away from the social unrest that will surely follow the collapse. I’m affarid America’s day is the sun has ended due to massive unrecoverable debt. Even if your rich, seeing everyone else struggle has a negative impact on quality of life in the US in general.
Hello- as a retired investor i do have modest investments in gold ( GLD-ETF) wit base funds in MLP stocks, and canadian trusts. Would need more guidance on the other metals ???????? Vince
I have about 105 in metals including gold, silver & platinum.
I believe the $ will be coming down again with metals rising.
I also believe stocks will continue gong down for a period due to the idiotic administration we have to endure.
For 2010, I am feeling very bullish on Gold, Platinum and Silver… not ETFs, or mining stocks, but PHYSICAL metal. I believe that the coming months will see quite a bit of volatility in the markets generally, and we may very well see Gold slip below $1000… but not for long.
I believe that all precious metals are currently WAY undervalued, for the simple reason that too many investors are now content to invest in PAPER metal (i.e., ETFs, Mining Stocks) rather than PHYSICAL (which is REAL money in ANY crisis). When and if the s**t hits the fan, many of these paper contracts won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on.
While I believe that ALL precious metals are destined to explode, for the casual investor, Gold might be preferable to both Silver and Platinum, for the simple reason that Gold is easily recognizable to most people, while both Silver and Platinum are nearly identical in appearance.
Many people think of investing in physical Gold as needing to buy a 100 kilo gold bar, and storing it in a vault somewhere. For most people, however, such an investment is almost useless– I mean, how often do You need to tote around $350,000 in Your pocket? Instead, I recommend investing in 1/10 oz. Gold coins, as they are extremely liquid, easy to hide in Your bedroom drawer, and their value is easy to calculate (by simply moving the decimal point over one digit from the spot price).
I forsee a brief correction to $2000 by the end of the year.
A big no. I realize all the fundamentals look like this is going to be a moon shot, but your timing is wrong. We are going to be in a deflationary cycle for the next two years or so. Gold will be caught in that and just not do very well. We could easily drift down to $600 again. But, in two or three years inflation will come roaring back big time and gold will become a super star. Although, I like silver better. Remember, buy low & sell high.
If you were going to buy gold and silver what would you prefer. Bullion,
coins, stocks. I am concerned about having someone buy back my gold
and silver bullion or coins at market price plus a reasonable fee. Would you
prefer to buy gold and silver from a Coin Dealer in the larger firms so
they will buy back what you buy??? Thank you, Shirley You are such a
great person to look out for investors. You are right on I believe.
Martin, here is my position today:
Our home, vehicles and taxes are clear. Credit cards paid off each month.
Investments, in todays dollars, gold 40% all physical, silver 20%, 70% physical.
I just started buying PPLT backed with platinum and PALL backed with palladium
I just traded my SLV for SILV. Two years ago I cashed my I bonds to buy the Gold.
PPLT and PALL will be good for day trading I believe and they swing wild. The few stocks
I own are gold, silver and oil.
Its hard to believe people buy dividend stocks when the US$ lost about 16% in 2009
Jim C
Silver is still undervalued. Plus, you can buy more for your money, where as with Gold, it is unlikely many people could buy more than a few ounces with their investment budget. Silver is used in actual tangible products. But get the physical Silver! Just my opinion though…
re gold much depends on the Us DOLLAR. The other precious metals have industrial uses so I would be more inclined to pick up those and base metals…Also the rare earth metals. Definately.
- John W. Neff – I don’t think Forex is as risky as it used to be. Don’t trade it yourself, get a managed account. What do you think Martin?
Gold and Silver are correcting because of the dollar surge. Thus as the price of the metals drops the better the opportunity to buy to protect yourself from a long term devaluing dollar. Gold and Silver will be bargins at $1000 and $ 16 per ounce respectively. Buy now!
Gold will be good in the intermediate to long run. For the short run the dollar is strengthening against other currencies and should keep doing so for some time, so a patient investor will find a better price for gold.
You ask these questions then don’t answer them.
Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals … or not? Why?
How much of your portfolio have you invested? Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead?
Which are your favorites? Gold? Silver? Platinum? Palladium?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU ……
This doesn’t make any sende to me. These are trying times that can certainally get wose.
what is the safest way to own gold & silver without taking possession
Martin:
I have been a subscriber to Uncommon Wisdom for one year and have listened to and acted upon many recommendations by both Larry and Sean.
Unfortunately, though, I no longer follow their advice on gold, silver, etc. Reason: The dollar finally bottomed last week and is now in a long-term bull market phase (despite all the gloom and doom talk and deficits). Metals (and commodities) move inversely to the dollar. Thus a rising dollar equates to falling metals and commodity prices.
Do you still think gold will go to 1200-$1500 this year?
No. Precious metals are often inverse to the dollar, and I think the dollar rally has legs. The Euro is in trouble with the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), and to flight from risk in Europe leads back to the dollar. Give it some time for the correction to work out.
I think sillver is going to take a little bounce after this present decline and then head much lower. I also believe silver will eventually get down to $7 or below. I have been buying puts on these declines and calls for the bounces. I plan on buying silver for the long haul (after our deflation) but at less than $7. Last fall I sold my $200 dollar bars(bought decades ago) for $1300 and have buying and selling this account. It is not as easy as options.
I’ve been a gold bug for a few years now. I bought into the story of inflation adjusted gold price story that would put the 80’s gold high at $2,175ish today. . . blah , blah blah. I keep 5-10% fo my portfolio there. What scares are all the brick & mortar gold buying shops opening up, the constant headlines and advertisements for selling your gold at all time high prices, etc. Sounding a little like a market top from the mainstear media. I remain i it, albeit a bit more cautious an outlook.
Gold is too expensive right now.
With the deflation on the horizon, I expect gold to hit USD 600.
It will be a good investment then.
Dear Martin,many guru’s are advocating to sell your gold(soros)is saying there is a GOLD bubble comming.some are saying that inflation will cause the price of gold to drop drastically,others say that inflation will not effect the price of gold.I myself have my life savings in gold with the zurich kantonalbank in switzerland.PERHAPS YOU CAN PUT ALL OF US AT REST WITH THE TRUTH.WHERE DOES LARRY EDELSON AND SEAN BRODRICK STAND WITH ALL THE VARIOUS NEGATIVE WORDS THAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT GOLD RIGHT NOW.MANY REGARDS.PATRICK O’SULLIVAN.
I think gold will go down against the grain. It will go down because monetary policy will tight. Fed will increase interest rates in second half. Fed will start exit plan in second half as well. We will see global liquidity tightening. Obama’s new regulations on financial centers will limit the amount of speculation in market and it will impact commodity speculation the most so gold and Oil will go down. I know most of the “Bear Guru” like Oil and Gold, but I think they will suffer.
It’s time to buy gold, silver and platinum. My ratio is 80% gold, 12% silver and 8%platinum: the latter in coins, the others half coins and half bars. With first notice day in gold on Monday, the rollover finishes and the buying returns in force, building on a firm base.
95% cash, 5% aim precious metals fund, entry sub. 6 bucks
when the dow hits 8500 i will think about throwing some cash at selective stocks.
You used to recommend Enerplus. I made a lot of money on it. Do you have anything comparable to recommend today, with high increasing dividends and increasing stock value?
Martin, I have a third of my investings in silver mines, a third in oil stoick, ten per cent in natural gas, and the balance in cash. I will have a swiss annunity that I must take 2-1-10 because of my age [88], which I would like to leave, because in eighteen years it has grown from $10,000. to 84,000. The dollar is doomed. Any advise on where to invest it?
Ed
My wife and I are widely diversified, with only 10-15% US stocks, the same in foreign stocks, and a bit more each in US and foreign bonds. Our 401(k) has no option for Asian stocks or bonds, so we buy those with our available cash. We have TIPS, 5% gold, and lots of cash. And I’m still worried! I would buy more gold but I don’t want to part with cash in case I lose my job, so I’m sitting tight for now. Either inflation takes off and our cash loses purchasing power, or we get deflation and everything loses value including the dollar. I work in high tech and our business is booming, but one industry alone cannot save an economy buried in debt.
Gold is the money of Kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. Debt is the money of slaves. I think I will remain forever, a gentleman!
The world will run out of silver since it is used not only as a store of value, but also a commodity. As Russia, China, and India grow, they will “consume” massive amounts of silver. Many new uses for silver arise every year, and much silver gets forever thrown away every year.
Without getting to verbose, silver will become scarce, while the gold supply remains pretty much status quo. There are many other reasons such as Comex shorts, etc.
Silver is wealth insurance. It is real money. Buy now, while it is cheap!!!!!!!
It would be very silly for the gov to forbid or confiscate gold in USA/Canada only. It would make no sense and would be impossible to implement such a law. 1930 was totally different situation.
And globally, try to tell gold control to the people of India, or China, or Vietnam, Thailand and others ! Impossible. And who has bought all those hundreds of tones of gold that the central banks and IMF have sold since 1980 ? The private rich and powerful who control this world. They will not allow anybody to touch their goodies.
Gold is safe. Guarantied.
But please go physical. It is safer, less volatile, and will get you better return than ETF or shares in average mining company. Future high energy costs will eat into miners’ profits. Remember also that gold companies can be nationalized.
And lastly the sweetest part of physical: No gov, no court, no lawyers, (no woman, no wife) have to know about it ! No tax man too … Pure gold is money and as such it can not be taxed anyway.
“Who has gold makes the rules”
I expect a very short term rally for the dollar (2 to 3 months) so I expect a little pressure keeping metals down a little. Since this is a blog about precious metals, I won’t go into detail on this subject here. An exception that may make the dollar rally last longer than I anticipate are war and flight-to-safety reasons like financial problems in Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Dubai, Venezuela, etc.
When the dollar does start to hit resistance, the precious metals will explode in value.
Beware, ETFs and funds that hold gold should only be considered a temporary investment. You should convert that money in those funds to real metals. Why? Consider the two scenarios:
1) A stock decline of any significant amount pushes people to the dollar and forces many sales to resolve margin calls. Those margin calls force people to sell the holdings they want to keep (like gold). It is a double whammy against gold funds.
2) Secondly, if the government recalls gold bullion, gold funds and ETFs receive only a fraction of the value, it will be a while before you get some of your money back.
While precious metals are being pushed down, buy it now to get a good deal.
I have most of my portfolio in real estate (which pays constant rents) and about 15% in silver and platinum (notice I don’t hold any gold). I do plan to pick up more silver.
I think silver is a good option for people. Although it is a lot of weight for the value (when compared to gold or platinum), silver is more versatile and useable considering the average transaction size. If you ever needed to pay with your precious metals for food, clothes or toiletries, an ounce or bar of silver is more convenient.
Because most gold can be recalled, I don’t recommend it. The Patriot Act altered the definition of recallable gold, so now, it is believed that the only safe gold to hold is “antique numismatic coins with a rarity value specified at DOUBLE the bullion content”. That means the government probably won’t recall your gold if it worth more than twice the current value of gold and supposedly made prior to 1933. That kind of gold is very expensive and hard to find. That is why I can’t get myself to by gold.
I have an IRA worth $128,000 and I’m concidering purchasing gold eagles. My concern is not about asset increase, it is about the potential of government gold confiscation as was done in the 1930s. Your thought???
1/3 in silver stocks, 1/3 in oil stocks, 28% Perth Minrt-gold coins, balance cash.
I’m purchasing silver on pullbacks. I view silver as a poor mans gold and it helps that when gold moves up 1%, silver usually moves up 2%. I can easily see silver breaking its all time high of $80 when gold surpasses its record high. That silver has industrial uses while gold does not is an added bonus.
I currently own both physical silver (coins) as well as some of the top tier mining stocks. I believe you will make the most money safely by buying some of the larger names . When the general public becomes in this bull market(which they will ) I look for them to want to ride the silver and gold bull as easy as possible . With the click of the mouse , they can purchase quality names . Also many mainstream financial professionals are able to recommend a lot of these larger names because they would be on the firms approved list . Keep in mind this is not a buy and hold sector the bubble will eventually form
Silver would seem to offer the greatest upside percentage potential in the coming wave of inflation (or hyperinflation) caused by the wild-spending, irresponsible Socialist Obama. However, since I prefer to hold physical metal, gold remains my top choice since it is much more portable and easier to store. I hope to see it drop into the $950 range soon. I wish it was easier to find fractional ounce coins.
Earl D
I just bought more bullion this am at $1081, and will keep some cash set aside in case the price of gold goes below $945. I purchased more silver eagles 2 days ago but the price has dropped almost $1.00/oz since then. I didn’t wait long enough. I’ll probably buy a few more rolls if the price drops below $15
Yes, it is time to stock up on Gold and Silver and it always has been.
The precious metals of Gold and Silver are Real Money!
No matter what currency prevails now or in the future, if you have Gold and Silver, then you have money.
All else is iffy and demands that you take a chance on trusting another.
When it comes to someone else looking out for my finacial interest, I have little trust in anyone.
Hmmm, Lets see…
China (a HUGE financial power) says Metals are too high, BUT a HUGE buyer!
George Soros (a HUGE market mover) says Metals are too high, BUT a HUGE buyer!
We are walking a financial cliff in the USA and Bernanke loves the power of printing Fed Res Notes.
The Weimar Republic come to mind?
Intuition says we are in a boatload of trouble… commonly known as ‘deep sh*t’.
The Banks are using smoke & mirrors,
Housing, the USA’s backbone, has fallen apart, the Banks are on their OWN survival course, taking TARP funds, creative accounting tactics and flipping paper like tomorrow will never matter anyway,
Paper currencies are faltering like there is no tomorrow, and Traders like: http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures#p/a/u/0/xIHaN7-yxo8
have this to say.
I would say, start buying anytime now, do not look back, do not think about buying higher than the next corrective bottom and make a committment to either believe we are in ‘Deep Sh*t’ or the world is great. If I am wrong, it’s OK because all I have done is to TRADE U$D for a tangible Metal… I have parked my $$ in a physical commodity rather than believe Tim Geithner or Ben Bernanke.
PS – The other precious metal is lead…
A word of caution to precious metal investers … I would strongly reccomend that you take possession of any purchases to avoid the Bullion Reserve debacle of a few decades ago when thousands of investers lost most of their investments to the criminal ponsie scheme of claiming to be safe-guarding your gold in a secure location. They did no such thing and eventually could not honor peoples sales requests. They only had on hand about 50 percent of what they claimed they had purchased and stored. My motto now is “Buy local, store it yourself, sell local!!!” I don’t trust anyones claim of “safe” storage outside of my own local bank.
With the government printing so much money, I am fearful of what is going to be in store for us in the very near future! The value of the dollar will decline dramatically which will bring on inflation. The government is going to have to raise taxes in order to start reducing the deficit by repurchasing some of the maturing obligations, so as not to go into default. I’m betting on precious metals to carry me through that period. About 40% of my investments are in gold and silver securities in additon to 1500 ounces of silver bullion. My feeling is that silver bullion will outpace gold, percentagewise, in the long run. I am using the remaining investments for trading purposes, which hopefully will earn me additional funds to increase my gold and silver positions.
Interest rates and gold.
It is the REAL interest rate that affect the price of gold, not the FED rate ! As it is the REAL inflation rate that has been driving the price of gold up, and not the FED inflation rate.
REAL interest rate = FED interest rate – REAL inflation.
FED int r = 0%
REAL infl r = 10% (roughly)
So, the REAL intr rate that drives the price of gold is about NEGATIVE 10. This rate will only grow bigger and eventually will get collosal.
I save my gold from my clam at this time.
ilike silver, maybe a replacement currency
George N I have 20% of my portfolio in physical gold silver and platinum. The reason is the US buck is going to drop and higher interest and inflation are on there way. Platinum is also going up due to the increase in auto sales world wide.
Re: today’s question on time to buy gold and silver: Am currently holding between 5 and 10% of investment accounts in gold, silver and gold miners’ Etf’s and gold and silver bullion coins and some gold and more silver collector coins. To the extent that liquidity allows, I buy more on dips.
I’m speaking from good old Britain where our economy is being hijacked by politicians of all persuasions who all want power in no more than 20 weeks when we have our next general election. However before then the pound could be hit from all sides as no one seems to want to face stark economic truths about current government spending….we’re living away beyond our means as a nation and no one’s telling the truth – drastic cuts are needed to get our economy back on track. Sell Sterling and buy gold and Norwegian oil shares!
I am with Gilbert A. Gold has been a lousy investment over the years. That is my personal experience with it as well. Gold is more a speculation than an investment in my opinion. I won’t touch it. Particularly not now that the gold price is historically high.
Nevertheless I’ll observe how Larry Edelson and Sean’s recos pan out.
Herbert J. Everstijn
I am in gold at about 60% of my investments and plan to buy on the way down to $850
Before interest rates climb and gold goes back up
Not sure what to do with my $72,000 in Pimsco Bond fund yet It has a big stake in Fanema
I currently have a small amout of my portfolio in silver (3%). I plan to increase that to 6-8% of my portfolio over the next 12 months, believing that the dollar will slide appreciably in the second half of the year, making silver a more attractive investment.
Sometime next week, I think, or when GLD hits about 101.00
I don’t own any metal stocks. In my Taxable account I own USAA precious metals fund symbol USAGX, I don’t have time to deal with individual stocks.In our IRA accounts, my wife has ABX and BHP, I have GG ( Goldcorp ), which I read somewhere was the fastest growing gold producer. The total is about 5% of all our investments.
Yes, now is the time to buy gold. The way Obama wants to put us further in debt leaves no alternative but for the dollar to go down & inflation to go up. In addition, central banks are now buying gold.
I follow several news letters and then make my own decisions. I am convinced we bottomed out today, 1-29-10, on gold. $1080 has held on the close after being broken significantly during trading. Most gold stocks have taken it on the nose but a strong recovery is near. Buy all gold stocks on the TSX or TSX Venture exchange. The dollar will be turning down again and the Canadian dollar will then gain back what it has lost to the US dollar. A few extra dollars in your stock trading can be picked up that way.
I am not convinced yet that we are headed for a full blown depression. If that should occur, all bets are off. Gold would be the only survivor but who knows at what price.
Sell all assets now. The market top was last week and gold and silver topped in december. we are headed for a deflationary depression and all assets will go down initially. gold will go down to $640. This may happen by the end of 2010. then and only then will gold be a buying opportunity again as assets reflate.
deflation and depression must play out first. the dollar will continue to rise as it has done so since december. Once the stock market crashes to the ultimate bottom, then the dollar will resume its downward spiral and gold and silver and all commodities will be buys.
I believe that gold and silver will always be a good investment. I would suggest investing in gold or silver as opposed to selling it. I plan to keep all my precious metals for emergencies because the value will not degrade over time.
In mid to long term, it makes sense to hold precious metals such as gold, Silver and platinum etc provided the USD reverse its current trend. Presumably deep rooted problems take time to resolve and unless US strike oil in near term, my thought would be the precious metals as one of the good investment ahead. However, the awaited interest rate hike may create uncertainty to this thought in future but I suppose wise advice should help investor to stay ahead of the curve.
I red all of these comments! I seems everybody has his opinion and no one a real answer.
Gold, Sliver, Cash, Worldwide split in stocks, Currencies, Commodities, Oil. Gad, Kohl, Bonds, Treasury Bills. 401k. IRA, Annuities, Life Insurance, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, etc. this all will be worth less or confiscated by a failing Government or 100% inflation.
I have seen many Countries going to the barter system, or the cigarette value, like in Germany for 3 years (1945-48). Our system is sick already. My bet is buy Swiss Franc. They survived the longest time so far, without any future guaranty either.
I like silver and have about 20% of my invested portfolio in physical silver and would buy more with uninvested cash on a significant decline to $15.20.
I like gold.with our currency being worthless each day, and our debt in the trillions, the Federal Reserve and Fort Knots refusing any kind of audits . The conclusion can be made that the Fed has been creating money from nothing and giving it to the big banks who are not lending it out to smaller business, and Fort Knots has nothing left but Tungsten filled gold plated bars/ Boy are we in trouble. Keep your gold.
From a longtime subscriber to your newsletter, Larrys & Dividend Superstars; to tell you the truth, I don’t know as I am not a stock market analyst. The market says it is a risky time and year for 2010 with a DOW January close down. However, I purchased 100 shares of AEM yesterday and have several orders in for GLD & LIHR 10% + below todays close. Otherwise, I am all cash with some shares in KMP which just paid a 6% + dividend.
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You comments would be appreciated.
Barry
A little in Perth Mint Certtificates should pay off over the next two years.
Martin: My, clients, including a small profitable Swiss bank with a 600 h undred Year history, Has seen our portfolios consistently profitable since the Year 2000 to the present, By investing in silver & gold. Since 2004, silver has made up the majority
of our profits. by the way, I used Your Father’s services while I was employed
at Merrill in the 1950’s Hal
I am working towards a 10% silver and gold allocation of
my investible money. I am aiming at a 15:1 silver to gold
ratio.
I have no investments in gold or any other precious metals and/or stocks. In retrospect, it would have been ideal to put no less than 5% of my portfolio in this segment. My concern now is that it is overpriced, despite all the information I’ve read from those who speak to this subject in Weiss Research. In other words, it looks to me that I woul be buying at the peak or near it now if I invested in metals/gold/etc.
Up loading on Gold or Silver in your portfollio? or you safety deposit box? I say a bird in the hand is worth so much more than paper in a folder. What do you think? ja
Gold is just popular for the BIG MONEY crowd and convenient to suck up their BIG MONEY
Silver is undervalued in comparison, used, and NEEDED as a commodity. I would buy a ton of Silver before I bought 500 oz Gold. Other than that Lithium looks interesting.
Like a lot of your investors, we have some gold and silver holdings. In fact, we just upped our silver as the price was falling to round out our holdings to about 20% of our investments. I keep thinking, if I were in Haiti right now, all the cd’s and stock’s in the world would not buy me a single thing, but if I had a few silver half dollars or other coins, at least I could buy some food and water! I may lose some value over my investment price, but I would survive! I have encouraged my son in Los Angeles to stock on some oins when he can-prepare for the “big one” I say!!
Deflation not inflation is coming at us and the world again. The dollar is going higher and I think green back dollars are the only safe harbor in the near future. Gold will be much cheaper down the road. Of coarse this is only a probability but there are enough indicators out there to convince me to be very cautious right now.
I don’t think it’s time to load up on gold, but I do think it’s time to load up on long dated treasury bonds precisely because the media has been bashing them so much lately. If the Fed decides to raise interest rates, it will send a message to the public that they’re getting tough on inflation which can only be good for 30 year bonds. As far as stocks go, complacency levels are far too high after we had the largest pull back since the Great Depression. The bear market is not over!
Martin– At the advisement of Weiss research a few years ago I loaded up on gold when it was a mere $525/oz. I am still holding and will continue to do so–and will probably buy again if gold slip a little more to around 1020-1050/oz. Still think it will be over $1500/oz as we grind out year two of the present administration.
My favorite for the past year is palladium. The jewellery industry has come up with
a formula than “merges” palladium with silver to form an alloy like gold. Not a plating
process, but a blend. Finally. It is a long time coming.
/also —–Palladium is used in industry, like cars and planes.
The drawback, most of the palladium is in Russia.
Hi Martin,
I’m presently getting killed by all elements of the market. Was up 9% the first six market days of January, now 1% below where I ended December. I have no bond exposure, but have no faith in U.S. bonds, so will need to look at international ETF’s. Right now, about the only semi-promising route seems to be high yield REITS. I’m in a lot of them, and am willing to risk capital loss in exchange for steady dividends. Foreign REITS pay next to nothing, so I’ll be avoiding them. Also, foreign real estate bubble, pretty much worldwide, seems to be following about two years behind ours, i.e. just starting to really roll. I’m selling stocks on “up” days, and building cash. Will probably move to a 30% cash position waiting for some sign of stabilization. As far as commodities, I’m into gold (GLD, LIHR, ASA), and a bit of silver (SLW), but not liking them, though the losses are not nearly as dramatic as palladium, et. al. right now. UNG is the best speculative play at the moment.
If history is any barometer, then tis is not the time to own too much gold or silver. Whenever it is touted all over the place, that is a sure sign that it has peeked.
I speak from over 20 years of trading precious metals for a living.
yes this is a buying opportunity for precious metals. gold is my favorite
I believe in silver and bought 200 shares of SLV, silver etf. After watching the role of silver in due course Ishall try to improve the position. Silver has a potential to increase in price asit is more widely used metal.
Silver is my pick. Both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. And , it is not stock piled in any central bank and probably more difficult to manipulate. Physical possession in coin form has the advantage of liquidity and authenticity. In addition there are some holding compaies that are very reputable with silver and gold that are also highly liquid.
With BOTH China and India, along with other nations seeking to diversify from fiat currencies into gold holdings, anything under $1100 per ounce enhances their purchase price positions. With a global printing press going full blast to prevent deflation, the odds favor a ‘printing press’ or financial default ahead. The only hedge for BOTH central banks and individual investors is gold. Easy to move, easy to hide, and easy to pass in large transactions in that global arena, gold has a bottom price floor near where it presently is ($1187).
silver
I have close to 10% of my portfolio in precious metals, about 75% in gold via ETF and gold mining stocks . The remainder is in silver.
I plan to hold these through the corrections for the long term strategy of a much higher price in future years.
I believe in diversifying. Real estate 25% Equity funds 25% Fixed income 25% Hard Assets (gold, silver. Platinum etc) mining or holding 25%. As little US$ as possible Jim W Sr
PS Just like a car- 4 wheels loaded equally. Cash is the spare.
I see gold hitting $3,400 an ounce with a big move for silver as well. Load up on
PMs as we watch the dollar continue to eventually plummet to its death.
To John W. Neff.
Do not trade Forex or anything like that. You will lose money that you can not afford to lose. Such trading is more than just buying and selling. The whole financial system, including the whole trading business is one big scam. Stay away, especially at your age.
Your problem is a growing one in America: A lot of cash but not enough.
Instead chasing money consider chasing the costs. How about moving to Asia. In places like Bangkok you get better quality health care than in the US, at fraction of the cost. Maybe your health care insurance will cover all of that ? Nearby Singapore has one of the best banking systems, education and economy in the world.
I used to have similar problem like you: not enough income. I moved to Thailand and now I have cash surplus and better quality of life. With my savings I do what all Asians do : convert it to physical gold. Silver is best, but investment silver is hard to find around here.
Anyway, future is in Asia.
Listen to smart guys like Jim Rogers and Peter Shiff.
I am heavily invested in metals, mostly silver ETF, I’m buying and holding. Everything else is very questionable. I agree with Celente and Sinclair- metals will soar in 2010 due to inflation that is here now and will rise. The worry is the gov. imposing draconian measures re: metals and investments. Moving assets out of the country- The gov. WILL mess with IRAs and 401Ks – cashing out of them or moving offshore.
Moving myself off shore sounds good too – but where ?
What do you say ?
Dennis
Firstly buy companies mining rare earth metals mainly because China
is buying up these companies , platinum is also a good buy at the moment.
To me Iron ore and coal over gold anytime.
Did you wonder why jokenhagen was a calmity , the Chinese and Indians basically
walked out , they primarily use coal as an energy source.
Secondly I don’t buy USA stocks only high dividend yield Aust stocks and
especially iron ore stocks such as BHP RIO etc… also BHP mines gold and coal.
I also have ETF emerging countries .
If I was to buy USA stocks it would be Goldman Sux , after all they have a major influence over your government and hence the rest of the world.
Keep up the good work , nice to hear from well researched and even handed investors
cheers Mysha
Once I had a 100% profit in gold I thought I should take the profit and reinvest in silver ETFs which I have done. Silver is more easily used as a substitiute currency than gold, in the long term it will protect against hyperinflation just as well and possibly better as there is an industrial use for silver besides the monetary one and the spread against the historic norm between gold and silver leaves less risk with silver and more possibility of gain so I am comfortable with my decision.
ABOUT 3% IN GOLD AND SILVER
WOULD BE MORE BUT OUT OF CASH AT THE MOMENT
I don’t mean to be rude or disrespectful but I only subscribed to your forum for gigles. I sold out my very successful business in 1988 and put everything I had in gold Kruggerands at about $350. The FRN is on its last legs and will probably totally fail this year. With gold bouncing around the $1100 level it will only go up and up, just as it has been doing. Whatever anyone has in stocks will be worth billions of worthless FRNs. The best item at this time for immediate survival is junk silver, if you can find it – if you have a lot of stock – you will lose your investment, sell everything you don’t really have to have and buy gold or silver and take possession – do not leave it on deposit – you will probably never see it if you do. The “standard” ratio between gold abd silver is about 15:1 – at this time it is about 50:1 so silver is greatly under valued so silver is the best investment for the money. Purchase generic silver rounds if you can’t get junk silver. I do not have a PhD – I am a 75 year old grammar school dropout who had an office staff of PhDs working for my business – I am still living on the $350.00 gold I purchased in 1988.
Cheers,
Yadu
Subscribe to SafeMoney for nearly 10 years, and have a deep respect for you, Mike L., Larry E. and other members of your team. At the present time, the most important theme is the “return of one’s money, NOT the return on one’s money.” There are millions of investors wished they followed this advice at the beginning of 2008.Currently those investors that are patient and stay mostly in cash will be rewarded this fall when many great buying opportunities will materialize. A deflationary wave is now the trend and won’t bottom until this fall. Gold topped out in beginning of December, while stocks, oil, grains and certain commodities topped out in early/mid-January. Silver is a industrial metal. Its 5- and 10-year cycle low will bottom in late 2010. The CRB Index has a major bottom due this fall too, as its 3-/3.5-year and 6-year lows are due. As you know the 4-cycle in the stock market is also due to bottom this fall. A 3-year cycle low in the 30-year T-bonds is due in 2010 as well as its seasonal cycle in early summer, which could extend its bottom into this fall. Since all of the liquidity (money) from the Fed has mostly found its home at the major banks and Wall Street, Main Street has not recovered, as you know. Until the necessary flow of funds gets to American households, you will not have any significant inflation. As the true unemployment (U-6) keeps rising this year, as more mortgage defaults rise due to next bear market down leg in residential and (especially) commercial estate escalates, as the EU deals with those members who have significant debt problems (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc) as well as the festering sovereign debt problems in the Middle East, debt problems of Great Britain, demand for natural resources and basic commodities will not be robust. Yes, there will be the normal needs of these commodiites but with credit contraction growing in the USA, Great Britain, Europe Zone, and other selected parts of the world, increased usage of the basics will not materialized. Yes, Asia will have growth, but China and India are not yet in the positions where their internal demand in 2010 will make up for the lower demand that will prevail in the rest of the world. You know that a significant drop in demand will curtail any price inflation. Now there will be some rallies in gold, metals, stocks and other commodites, but these will be only relief rallies in a true downtrend. I will buy gold some time this summer or very early fall to hedge against the next leg down in the US dollar. But until then, as the sovereign debt defaults play out, as the next wave of real estates foreclosures and defaults run their course, until the next meaningful decline in the bond market ends sometime this summer, and until the next horrific 4-year cycle low in the stock market is completed, now is not the time to buy gold or other precious metals, or overall commodities, stocks, real estate. The titans with the big money know this. So for the next six to ten months, keeping the power dry for the most part is the prudent thing to do. If one needs income, then buy selected utilities (FPL or ED), high income dividend equities (GGN) that invests in gold and natural resources and pays a very good dividend (over 10.5% at this moment), good dividend paying energy equities (PEW and PGH), etc. The bottom line for savy investors is cash with a sprinkle of income investments until the present deflationary wave runs its course into fall. Then plow one’s money back into gold, selected stocks, natural resources and certain commodities for a rally into the end of 2011, maybe into the first half of 2012.
I just retired as a kaolin clay salesman. And I write a technical newsletter on the side in which I advise my subscribers when they can expect major and minor tops and bottoms in the stock market. I also track gold, crude oil, T-bonds, and US dollar index. One of these days I hope to shake your hand. Regards, Tom Tolle
Having a few ounces of gold & silver bullion for emergencies in the event that hyperinflation (from the escalating $12+ trillion National Debt) strikes in this decade, rather than after 2020, is essential. In my opinion, other than a few thousand in the bank for living expenses for a couple of months, consider buying common stock in well-managed infrastructure pipeline Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. (EEP), Oneoak Partners L.P. (OKS) or TC Pipelines L.P. (TCLP), all of which pay 7%+ quarterly tax-free dividends & have appreciated greatly in the 5 years that I’ve owned them, plus other MLPs.
Good luck in your investing, Don’t stick all your assets in gold or silver. Tax-free MLP dividends can be as golden as 100 kilos of gold bullion. Check it out at Yahoo Finance.
Art
Dollar Haven Schmaven! Cash can be king because that is what one buys gold and silver with. G & S will not be this low again. I believe that China and India will not let it JPM manipulation Gold go below 1020, if that. Not after telling their populations to load up. Greece, Spain, Japan and others could all falter. The US is supposed to be safe? 30 US states are are on the verge of bankruptcy. All I see is more money printing until a day of reckoning. Everyday is an adventure of news to wade through financially and geopolitically. Good luck everyone!
I bet you never had anyone tell you they invested in vintage buttons,but I am a member of theNational Button Society and some I bought for a $1. years ago now sell for $12 or moreand it`s a fun hobby.I meet a good bunch of inerestig collectors,both men and /women men often collect militaty.transportaton or
.Then i have investment in several mutual funds-Utility And a state annuity,not taxable
and the rest are longterm CD`s
Plus some silver and little gold.
I think gold is overpriced and silver underpriced
As far as incom,I am a WW2 disabled veteran.i Am 30% disaled which gives me a small pension,I get Social Security and after paying taxes on house etc,both my husband and I are doing well
We don`t spend much on vacations or entertaimennt,
we like to go out to eat,and we also take our occasional trips in our motorhome
I bet you never had anyone tell you they invested in vintage buttons,but I am a member of the National Button Society and some I bought for a $1. years ago now sell for $12 or more and it`s a fun hobby.I meet a good bunch of interesting collectors,both men and /women men often collect militaty.transportaton or company buttons
.Then i have investment in several mutual funds-Utility And a state annuity,not taxable
and the rest are longterm CD`s
Plus some silver and little gold.
I think gold is overpriced and silver underpriced
As far as incom,I am a WW2 disabled veteran.i Am 30% disaled which gives me a small pension,I get Social Security and after paying taxes on house etc,both my husband and I are doing well
We don`t spend much on vacations or entertaimennt,
we like to go out to eat,and we also take our occasional trips in our motorhome
Most of my investments are in fixed income securities but I don’t know enough about buying precious metals and what are the safest methods.
Definatly Silver,Gold should be part of your total portfolio of investment ,how much % ,it depends upon your guess,study and advices.
Thanks.
It seems unimaginable that the US dollar would collapse but those in Washington who have the power to prevent dollar collapse are blind. So holding real assets – ones that asians or europeans will see as valuable when the dollar becomes worthless is my investment strategy. High quality graded coins will always be in demand as long as people value rarity and the world population expands.
Technically the market is tanking. The 50 and 100 Day EMA’s just broke for the Dow and for GLD. The RSI for the Dow is at 32.36 and falling and for GLD at 37.98. They both are falling and below the 50 line. Time to load up and Buy DXD.
I lean more toward silver as it is undervalued compared to gold. Silvr has more potential for major increases, in my opinion.
The unemployed in this country is closer to 20% rather than the meager 10% we are told. The replacemnt jobs generally don’t pay the same salary. Existing employees are having their benefits cut such as a day a month furlough, no more free pension, higher insurance premiums, etcetera. I know I am painting a rather dismal picture. The bubble of baby boomers is increasing the demand for govemenment funding of entitilement programs which means the Federal goverment must continue to print additional money. The above statements are based on my observations of friends, and relatives who have been impacted by the recession. I am somwhat inclined to stay heavily invested in oil and gas since these commodities must be used in heating homes, chemical production, fueling airplanes, cruise ships etc. Therefore the value of our currency will decline and the cost of these commodities will increase in value. I do have holdings in gold, silver, copper and other commodities. I have 25% of my holdings in the stock market with about 5% in metals, 15% in energy and 5 % in utilities. The rest of my holdings are in inflationary treasury tips and stable value fund. I do not plan to be overly invested in this market.
When are people going to learn that gold and silver aren’t investments . They are insurance against disaster that you hope never comes. If disaster never happens, then leave gold and silver to your children.also tell your children that it isn’t an investment also.
It is a good opportunity to buy gold and silver on pull backs. There will be a new gold bubble that will take both much much higher than today’s prices, but not right away. Inflation will be slower than gold-bugs think, as the credit remains tight and the Fed is soaking up so much of the printing just to balance the books. So, out 2-4 years or so, $1000 gold will look like a 5-cent candy bar. But that, too, won’t last.
It seems that we are entering another deflationary bout and gold performed poorly in 2008 when all assets but treasuries declined, ditto for the other precious metals. As a contrarian, I am spooked by all the “shoeshine boys” talking about hyperinflation and gold.
So everyone, do you see the DJIA, SP500 and ASX200 reaching new lows this years ( equal to or even lower than March 2009?)
many thanks
darren
I am convinced that now is an excellent time to invest in gold, silver, platinum and even copper. With the devaluation of the dollar likely to continue so long as the US just prints money, Natural resources are a very attractive hedge against the loss of the dollar’s purchasing power. I invested a small amount in a company that prospects for gold this past week. So far the stock has declined slightly, but I expect it to rebound dramatically over the next six months.
i hold silver; is one type of silver better to have then another? thank you
The only place to have your money is in gold and silver – it has outperformed everything in the last ten years
Did the big “no-no” in 1998 and cashed out the IRA. Played stocks for a little while and gradually converted to mostly physical gold with a little silver. Best decision ever made – stocks flat since 2000, I’m “up” at least 300% on gold and silver since then. Added to both physical gold and silver over the past 10 years with bonus money. Current liquid assets sit at 78% gold eagles and various foreign bullion, 17% silver eagles and rounds and 5% cash. Why? Got tired on countless hours trying to research to find the right stocks and be surprised by stuff going on behind the scenes that wasn’t obvious. I sleep very well at night and don’t even think about how much the gold and silver is worth. I look at the long term trend of the ratio of au and ag to other asset classes and it is up. I see it as “I have x oz of gold and y oz of silver”. When people start acting with silver and gold like they did with internet stocks during the late 90’s bubble and they act like they did with real estate in the mid 2000’s, then I will “consider” gradually switching to another asset class.
I also realize that food and other essentials may be more important than the gold and silver if we go into a deep depression. But everything goes in cycles. At some point gold and silver will be transferred to real estate or other income producing assets at a vastly different ratio than exists today.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold and silver correct another 10% and I will be working hard to find an additional 30k to put into the metals. At this point, can I really trust to have my money anywhere else given the level of corruption running though almost every level of government and finance?
The commercial real-estate market is worrying me more than the housing crises. In that case we had a total collapse. I kind of forgot what took the blunt of the market,and what survived if anything? I am a Canadian investor,being a Canadian. I think that if I were to purchase anything, it would be related to food,agriculture,fertilizers,and seeds. I am thinking possibly buying Agrium stock with a 2012 put of some sort. And I am desperately looking for a natural gas call or a stock with a put with $5.00 over the price of the stock, minimum 3 months. Gold for sure at to-days price,or possibly a naked put in the event I wish to purchase this gold stock,either way would be fine.Right now I am 30% in Cash I may stay this way if I can not find what I am looking for. I am just a student with options,I have practiced without using money. Some of it works some not.
Kind regards
mike sloot
Bye all means invest in gold,silver,platinum,rare stamps,div. paying precious metals companies–as i’ve done, but only if your hse. is paid outright, and you have no debts except ongoing month expenses. DO NOT GO INTO DEBT TO INVEST__it’s gambling.
Martin, I have and will continue to invest in gold and silver bullion and precious metal stocks and mutual funds . I am not afraid to be “not” diversified in a marketplace created by a bloated inefficient government . If the government were to suddenly become efficient I would sell .
Silver 40%/Gold 10% Physical only, FRN over Treasuries, Currencies and holdings outside US, Oil/NG and other commodities.
If gold drops below $1000, I’ll look purchase a few gold coins. I will look at increasing my position within my EFT who’s primary holdings are Canadian gold mining stock. I will also be adding some September or December call to my portfolio for additional good measure.
I would wait to buy gold, because I see more deflation coming to the markets. The US dollar should see a significant rally in the next few months, as the anti-dollar (Euro) takes it on the chin from the PIIGS nations. It’s thought China wants to purchase the remainder of the IMF gold around the $950.00 level, so I would wait and average in, once it falls to $1000.00 an ounce, and marches towards mid 900s. However, once China or some other nation purchases the IMF gold, the gold market should take off like a rocket, and will not see $1000.00 an ounce for a long time.
Gold and silver may have a little more downside before heading back up. The US Dollar has been in an uptrend.
Martin,
I believe there will be a short term rise in the USD caused by weakness in the Euro and an uptick in the 4th Qtr. US GDP. I am buying more gold, silver,palladium, etc. on the metals dip from the rising USD. Also planning to invest in some of the rare earth metals also. I am into currency trading especially the cross trades where I match currencies based on fundamentals and let the technical indicators determine my entry and exit points. A good vehicle to trade during our present stagflation and so far very profitable to me. I’m with your long term forecast for higher inflation and much higher taxes I might add. Tim is keeping the presses rolling over at the Treasury and Ben at the FED won’t raise rates anytime soon to defend the dollar but when he does, look out. About 90% of my portfolio is on the sidelines but plan to commit some more, prox another 10% in the comming months in non-dollar real assets and fiat. I have a few biotech stocks working on FDA approval for marketing [low stock market correlation (beta)] plus the trading plays recommended by your fine Foundation and Larry’s and Sean’s picks. Klaus has also done a good job from a shaky start. Keep up your great work and advice. Barry K.
Hi Martin-
I am probably over weighted in gold and silver and despite the swing in there value, it is one of only a couple of places that I feel comfortable. It is my belief that the markets have been so overmanipulated and that trust has hit such a low level amoung some of wall streets top people that as reality sets in among the average citizen it may be to late to act. Remember you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
After some temporarily effective measures to prop up the dollar, it will go into free fall. Gold, silver, energy and agricultural commodities are the place to be!
Precious metals seem to be a good hedge against inflation. Gold, Silver and Platinum are good investments. My understanding of Palladium is that Russia is the top producer and we really do not know what is there. One car company ( Ford?) lost a billion on Palladium when it bought high and the price dropped due to excess supply. If this is true and Palladium is like diamonds I would stay away from it but the last I looked it had performed real well to date. Perhaps someone has a better perspective on palladium.
I think Obama like all politicians will do what it takes to get elected.What the voters want now is less spending,less taxes and less printing money(quantitative tightening).This will lead to strong deflation.Then around Sept this year after a stock market crash the Obama crew will turn back on the money spigot in a big way.But if its done in the same way as the stimulus we have seen up to this point,it wont stop the deflation nor will it allow the deleveraging that deflation brings.So we could get a long, cold, grey, dreary winter (depression)that may last from 4 years to a decade.Gold could go to 500 dollars or less.However,If Obama starts to give money directly to the people,in the form of vouchers that have an expiry date,can only be used for certain purchases,and cannot be converted to cash then we could get inflation which could make gold skyrocket.I think we will get both…deflation in the next year or so followed by severe inflation in 3 or 4 years.So short term I see gold being bearish.But by oct/nov start buying both gold and silver.
Hello Martin always appreciate your letters and keeping the home investor up to speed .
Right now I am wary, the Dow from what I hear could retract back to 800?
The dollar seems to be on the rise..for how long I wonder? Gold seems to want to go sideways while the dollar strengthens. There is a little silver play on the tsx.symbol.. MAI lots of silver, and copper but seems to be slow on the uptake even though their raking in the silver?
Anyway thanks again for your advice and will keep reading.
Precious metals but Lithium should be in much demand also
Gold has obviously topped and is due to go down further. MINIMUM to 900, and maybe even to 600-700. The reason for this is partly due to the strengthening Dollar, which bottomed last year on its 7-year cycle and is now catching on fire. As Dollar-denominated investments become more in demand, then Metals and other Commodities will suffer. If you cannot see that on the Charts, then sure — go ahead and buy at this insanely expensive level.
What are the options? T.M.I., M.M., E.F.s, D.M.S.
T.M.I.
Using a valuable uncommon Tangible Monetary Instrument, that allows regulation, and a free nation to prosper.
M.M.
Monopoly Money Ultimately leads to a harsh reality. However during its reign, a society has hope for change in the sense that new policies can contain the Monopoly Money’s hyper-inflation destination. An example of a container would be using a note certificate as an I.O.U. for something of value like the application of a precious metal reserve. However during the M.M. era revolution can begin along with the rebirth of a nation’s soverenity through a renassiance.
E.Fs
Electronic Funds is the tipping point of absolute enslavement. There is nothing of material substance as a form of currency so money always equals debt. And debt always equals money. This system eventually lends to a system of perpetual loss of lives, liberties and freedoms. In which there are no free markets, no property ownership, all the while one is indebted to labor for a Privatize Fascist Corporate Government Machine. A micro-chip recording and identification system, would be a lucrative stock to own such as the one manufactured by Veri-chip, Ticker “chip”.
D.M.
Denouncing the Monetary System altogether allows each individual to open up the divine heart in themselves, to honor all life with gratitude while striving for a greater good. This systen marks the end of enslavement and manipulation. Welcome to the age of light is which humanity has truly evolved consciously. This society is so collectively conscious that they govern themselves in harmony with one another as well as their environment while maintaining individual freedoms and identities from birth. I’m totally ready to do it. Are you?
WHEW, I read em all, would have to write a book to address all the wild speculations and diverse opinions expressed. I feel sorry for our American friends as their government was the FIRST to be co-opted by the International Bankers who established the “Mother of all Ponzi schemes” in 1913 called the Federal Reserve Act.
This Central Bank model has now been successfully replicated in almost all countries of the world and is DESIGNED to steal the substance of all citizens through INFLATION. Doubt me, the 1913 dollar now has about 3C of purchasing power, yet the masses still view this MONOPOLY “legal tender law” money substitute as a “DOLLAR” though they are slowly catching on to the scam.
Inflation is NOT the only problem, under the fractional reserve banking system our money supply is CREATED “essentially out of thin air” via a printing press, yet most people do not understand the implications and ultimate result of the procedure by which our money supply is brought into existence as DEBT, on which interest that is NOT created, must still be paid. It is a mathematical impossibility to do so because the INTEREST is never created, it just ACCUMULATES as DEBT at all levels. LOOK at the evidence, governments never pay off their debts, they just “roll them over” even corporations for the most part do that, let alone the average consumer with credit cards and equity loans on their homes.
It is amazing that it has been possible to keep this pyramid scheme going for as long as it has, and it is only possible because of its vast scope that essentially involves most of the population of the earth. The way it works, (after a fashion) was well expressed by a Canadian Central Banker Graham Towers testifying in 1939 before a Commons Finance Committee when he said this; “every bank loan is a new creation of money, and when it is paid back IT CEASES TO EXIST” which means that a standard mortgage (French meaning death gamble) amortized over 25-30 years RESULTS in twice as much “alleged” (counterfeit, hence legal tender laws) money being CANCELLED, (removed from the system) as was originally created.
The only way the system survives is through an exponentially INCREASING number (and larger) loans being contracted, meaning an expansion of DEBT at an accelerating pace. This is the battle that is now being fought, (unsuccessfully I might add) because there is insufficient unattached collateral to loan against, hence “teaser rates” liars loans, (no verified income or assets), sub prime mortgages, derivatives ad nauseum!
You can no more “stimulate” an economy drowning in DEBT with MORE DEBT MONEY than you can sober up a drunk by offering him another bottle of wine or a Mickey!
What this means is UNLESS government REFORMS the system it will stumble from one instability to the next and may well ultimately collapse from its mathematical defects.
We as citizens can only do our best to weed out the career politicians who SUPPORT the system to preserve their power and ELECT instead men like Senator Ron Paul who UNDERSTAND the flaws of the system and are willing to put their lives on the line to CHANGE it. Americans need to BOMBARD their Congressmen with E-mails, letters and phone calls demanding that at the very least the FED be AUDITED and ultimately ABOLISHED in an orderly transition to HONEST constitutional money!
What to do in the interim on a personal level? There were some good suggestions by numerous people, grow as much of your food as possible, organically as I do, even collaborate with family and others you TRUST! Buy pre 1964 “junk silver” some silver round or other cheaper forms of silver, whatever numismatic coins you can afford, (less likely to be confiscated) and buy mining company stocks leveraged to gold and silver prices.
Personally i have never invested in GIC’s, Savings bonds, Treasuries, or any other form of FIXED or interest bearing investment for the simple reason that not only do I not TRUST politicians or bankers and their paper promises, (essentially IOU’s) the simple fact is that government inflation statistics are manipulated to paint a false picture and in REALITY paper investments usually leave you with LESS actual purchasing power than you put in.
What am I invested in? Emerging markets through ETF’S, (I consider mutual funds just as big a rip off as fixed income investments) other sector ETF’s targeting specific commodities, moving in and out as perceptions and supply/demand changes. In spite of focussing on junior miners and precious metals in particular I am broadly diversified with no more than 1-2% in any one stock. Besides gold and silver I am invested in oil,
(a major for 2010) uranium, rare earths, lithium, moly, base metals, vanadium, coal, and expect to expand water, agriculture and related sector investments for 2010. I also buy stocks that ANTICIPATE new technologies, in other words BUY BEFORE the herd, as represented by Wall St.), SELL when they finally discover the smaller more innovative companies and pile in and drive the price up.
The technique also works with junior miners which is my specialty! I look for companies with good management with a track record of success, well financed with resources in stable jurisdictions, (my favourite is QUE.) an “impending event” i.e. major discovery, new Ni-4301 compliant resource, release of feasibility study, commencement of actual production, takeover potential etc. any catalyst that will create investor interest.
Rather than “buy and hold” (dosen’t work anymore in these volatile markets) I take profits quickly in small increments, i.e if I buy 5000 shares of a junior @ say 25c when it hits 40c I would sell a thousand shares and at 60c another 1000 so i am playing with house money after that. My success rate has been pretty good, my portfolio was up 133% for 2009, my biggest problem is KNOWING when to sell any losers, that is the hardest for most investors. It takes diligence and discipline but it can be done even in these fluctuating markets, go with the flow, make the TREND your friend!
Above all be FLEXIBLE, you must change your tactics as the market changes or you will get slaughtered, sure would be a lot easier if the market was not manipulated by the bullion banks so we had a true FREE market, but I am confident that those who SAVE via gold and silver as opposed to paper investments will ultimately win and win BIG!
I believe it is good to have 10 to 15% in gold &silver in your portfilo.
Hello Martin and Larry
Let me say that this is a good question because of the recent pullback of gold and silver. The good news is if you are holding cash in US$ and gold/silver, the value of your cash is going up to off-set the losses in the gold and silver. The fundamental problem in my opinion is we don’t really know where the bottom is. So lets say you decide to load up now and we get another 20% drop, you are going to feel pretty stupid and a whole lot poorer, and you may jump off just to watch it go up without you. My approach is as follows: (1) Stay relatively small (no more than 10% of your portfolio), (2) Hold on to your core gold and silver holdings, (3) If you need more than you already have, buy into this weakness by averaging in rather than jumping in all at once, (4) accept the current pullbacks as the price of insurance, and (5) Have faith that both gold and silver have not peaked.
I still agree with Larry that it is still a very good thing to buy silver and gold.
With my 401K, 30% is in stock and 70% is still short term reserves. I’m still uneasy about fully buying in.
My major stocks are Emerging Markets and a balanced retirement fund with Vanguard. My choices are limited because my 401k is tied with my employer match.
Yes, it is time to buy more gold and silver. Whenever there is a dip like this, it is time to buy. I don’t think they can suppress the price of gold, silver, and other rare elements much longer. The dollar is definitely going to collapse and it is just a matter of time.
buy gold at the end of july.
China, then gold, then the rest of Asia. I have been exiting north american equities over the last few years and almost there (five stock positions to clear). Hong Kong/China shares have done incredibly well for me over the last 10 years and the last two years gold has also done well. Moving forward my HKG/China shares are positioned towards dividend (between 4% and 5%) yield and gold share reduced slightly. I also have a significant holding in Chinese RMB bonds that keep their head a little above inflation but may be very profitable when (not if) the RMB moves again, most likely mid year 2010. All the rest is in USD/HKD and a couple of other asian currencies (MYR and SGD)
Yes, it is the time to buy bullion precious metals. I prefer gold, siler and platinum in this order.
I’m staying with my gold and silver and am not planning on adding more yet at these prices. Unfortunately, they are not helping with income, however.
Stay the course with current program. IF A MOVE IS MADE IT WOULD BE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD ASIA.
If I decide to invest more I will consider the position of Gold and Silver.
Not planning on changes of positions at this time.
I recently moved everything completely into cash. The deleverage process which started in the second half of 2008 will continue unabated despite the Fed trying to reinflate us into the next bubble. Pumping trillions into the financial system thwarted the dedlation spiral a bit, but it will not succeed. Hence, I believe stocks and precious metals will sink, while the US dollar will rally this year. Of course one has to stay flexible and be ready to adjust when the tide turns. Eventually stocks and Gold will decouple, could be 6 months from now or 2 years, but rest asuured it will happen and then I will be a Gold buyer.
It’s simple ! Paper currency is only as good as the nation that guarantees it by its financial soundness In this country it more like counterfeit money(fait ) that if you trust in it then you cant read and balance sheet and cant even add 1 + 1 =2 .
But remember the kings of the nation ( the elite rich ) don’t hold paper cash because that isn’t real money ! But what is the only definition of what money is : GOLD & SILVER .
It like what G-d said about what is food (clean or kosher) That is food. Everything else unclean or not kosher is not even food !
Silver is the most undervalued precious metal of them all . So at $16 now … $22 will easy 6 months . It has hit it high in 2 years plus not like gold that hit it high just a few months ago. SILVER IS WHERE THE AVERAGE JOE CAN BE LIKE WHAT THE KINGS /RICH CAN PARTICIPATE …AND MORE OF THE PUBLIC THAT DOES BUY THAT WILL MAKE SILVER MOVE UPWARD QUICK … INSTEAD GOLD HAS LESS CUSTOMER BASE BUT THAT’S WHY IT IS $1000+ NOW … Either one you can go wrong. But also if you have cash ,cd’s , stocks when the future collapse comes you will get pennies on the dollar .. Gold and silver will be worth more and then all will see that that REAL MONEY .This country is already bankrupt $$$ prove it . A $20 piece in early 1900 is worth how much ? what’s that same $1 is worth today … much less because of the inflation and printing presses not stopping to devalue your (Fait )money .
The value of silver is disproportionate (low) to gold so i believe it will rise in value at an decent rate this year.
Yes,this is the time to long gold & silver. The short team correction almost done. About $50000.Gold & silver.
Traditionally, Gold has been going up during a deflation or inflation. This time,
Gold will go up as soon as the inflation will show up, towards the end of the recession. How much? I bet that it will reach way above $2,000 by the end of 2012.
I believe that a Gold investment of 15 to 20% of your portfolio can make a good hedge.
Neither, gold and silver have not changed in demand or usage other than specualtion buying as an inflation hedge. Stocks and bonds are on the way up as investments are continuing to grow and credit is cheap… Gold and silver are both a good sell at this point not a buy. Sell sell sell and buy other assets. Take your money and run. The future of both gold and silver are going down and expect to see gold around 800 come 2012. DONT listen to the hype…..
The simple answer is yes. The more complex answer of how have I gotten to this point is more interesting. In a very modest way I have divided up the investment into stocks from large producing miners, ETFs, and physical metal. With the greatest amount going to the miners (60%), second to the ETFs (30%), and lastly to physical metal (10%). The total amounts to about 25% of the total investment.
The plan was to put about 8% of the monthly take home pay into ‘precious metals’, but due to lack of funds, that has dropped to about 5%.
Larry Edelson and Martin over time have drummed into my thick skull the need to protect ourselves. A while back I took the big step (for me) to sell off a lot of low producing stocks in the IRA, and buy the miners, and precious metal ETFs in their place. Taking things one step farther I ventured out into the world looking for a coin dealer. Sticker shock can not describe my reaction to the cost of one small coin. There just wasn’t a way to afford to build up any meaningful amount of metal that way. With luck, the owner made a couple of suggestions that made sense at the time. Why not buy silver instead of gold? I could afford to buy two or three silver rounds a month, why not? Over the past few years, the collection has grown to almost a 100 ounces. The second suggestion that has taken a very long time to sink in was to buy gold scrap for the gold content. They buy scrap, and sell it to the refiners for about $1 under spot per gram. They would be willing to sell it to me at the current spot price. They make an extra buck, and I save the premium, and the wife gets to have a gold chain or ear rings to ware until time to sell. Now why didn’t I do this before?
30% of my money is parked in gold an silver because they are the historic currency. I don’t trust any paper currency anymore, especially with next to zero interest rate. I park the rest in dividend yielding stocks with reliable track record, mostly in utilities.
Martin: Normally buy Gold or Silver every month or two and sometimes sell some also. This has been my practice since Jimmy C. was president. I never “Load up” just buildup. Now watching and waiting, measuring risk. Will have finger on trigger with patience for any indication that the present pullback has reason to reverse direction. 20% Gold, Silver and other metals. 20% Ag commodities and about 60% invested in markets. Including income producing MLPs and Royalty Trust as energy instruments. Stock investments are all dividend paying large cap. I’m old as dirt so I’ve got a lot of dirt, love it.
Happy trails Dr j
Silver Just made a double top – going down fast.
Both Gold and Silver have dropped below their 50 dma, going to 200 dma fast.
Why buy now when you can get a better price later.
These metals are correcting with the Stock Market. So wait for a bottom.
I believe we are still in a Gold/Silver Bull Market – but in big correction phase now.
I would wait until later in summer depending on what the charts look like – also gold moves in cycles about every 85 – 100 days cycle.
I don’t know if this is exactly the right time but as my portfolio is biased towards gold (60%) I have started yesterday to load up on silver. I want 10% in this shiny metal. 20% is in commodities leaving about 10% in cash. I am buying dips with and intention to hold for about 5 years
i have already load my portfolio up with silver and silver stocks. i beleive silver will do as good as any of the metals.
dear martin we are in 90% gold & sliver but hear in australia evey time gold dose up the dollor will go with it and cancell out your gain what can i do
I never believed in putting all my eggs into one basket.
Maxium of anyones investment should be 10% into any one Item.
5% is a better choice. Look at the Lou Pearlman and maddoff scandels.
Many had 100% of thier assets with them-
Now they are broke and working again :(
Hi, yes i will be buying more gold (1oz nuggets) but will Lots more silver (1kg bars) as i think silver has got much more upside than gold when the next rush comes in maybe 5-10 days time. Am still trying to get out of all my New Zealand stocks but the punishment is going to be harsh.
Love your letters, keep up the good work.
Earle (NZ)
I think that the current weakness in gold and silver will continue for a while longer but I believe we are still in a long term gold bull market and an eventual high beyond $1500 is probable. The major upturn in gold began in 2002 and has continued for 8 years which is the length of the 1972/1980 gold boom, so it could be argued that the current bull run is mature. However in 1979/80 we had a nightmare spike in gold that took the price through $300 in September to $850 the following January. Nightmare spikes usually occur at the end of long term bull markets (the TMT boom top in early 2000) – we have yet to see one in gold.
Martin – Gregg ( the currency trader) from England seems to me to have the future investment already “pegged” – I’m going with his scenario ! Ps – I have been following you for years ! Keep up the good work , I am always so anxious to read your thoughts
We have a small amount in stocks and limited income. What is your advice ?
Wait for a major market term then load up. They are 10% of my portfolio.I have taken major profits {buy outs} and hold 10 free positions I now favor silver
Thanks for this ,yes I am interesting to buy bullions after collecting my cash from the stock markets,because every fiscus tells nonsenses about inflations !
I bought gold with half of my savings 75 oz.@1062.00 an oz. I am age 60 is this good investment .I mostly do my own investing,I am pretty green at this all I ever did is invest in CD,s.I do not know how to take advantage of your reserch like buy on dips on gold their are premiums $50 an oz or so,.. and that is pretty standert.I plan to retire at 65 single and not one bill buy every thing cash .
I’m not sure the focus should be around loading on gold or silver, rather if the current influx of cash into the US economy is enough to cause an inflationary cycle or if the excess cash will be dwarfed by the toxic bank debt in real estate hitting stride mid-year and into 2011.
It probably makes little difference what metal commodity is bought. They all seem to travel hand in hand. My own personal program is to hold nothing in paper except for short periods and wait out the market for when the fan delivers its nasties. I think it is a given that sometime over the next few years only tangible items will have any real value. Silver would be my top choice, for many reasons, too numerous to mention, and because it is gold’s shadow. One major difference from gold, it is being consumed at a greater rate.
I do think it’s time to buy more gold – or long gold (GLD) options, but don’t be surprised to see yet another big dip before mid summer, before gold starts back up for serious again. Too many other world currencies are looking poor these present days compares to our own nearly worthless paper.
The best kept secret? Simply an overlooked opportunity? Or is heavy metal just a type of music investment?
If you look at what has happened in metals over the last 40 years, you will notice an increasingly large abnormality which is about to correct itself within 18 months and that is with silver.
Years ago, as a solid place to put money, people used gold, or silver which was referred to as the poor peoples gold. Gold used to run around the $42 mark and silver around $7, which means in cost a 6 to 1 ratio. Gold right now now with a spot price is sitting around $1080, which means that silver should be around $180, not the $18 it is sitting at.
It’s not like there has been that much more silver than gold mined over the last 40 years, but for speculation purposes, gold has got all the attention.
So for investment, silver has a 1000% to play with. A smart investor would look at getting in now and then to start off loading once it has hit $35-40, thereby doubling their investment in a short period of time. This also gets them out before the $50 high spot that many people say silver cannot pass or at least maintain.
Personally, I have just doubled my silver and now sit with just over 23,000 ounces and waiting for the take off. It will be spectacular, and at least compared to some of the so-called financial gurus, I make sure I put my money where my mouth is.
Yes, it is time. With the government having printed substantially more money in the last year and a half than all the previous 230 years combined, it may be past time. Combine that with government pension and entitlement obligations going forward and there is simply no way to provide those number of dollars unless the fed prints even more. We have been pushed over the financial cliff and the fiscal snowball is just starting its decent down inflation hill.
I got out of the market about 6 months befor it crashed. Since then I have had most of
my money in cds…..and I have purchased about 2 percent gold and silver. For every ounce of gold, about 20 ounces of silver. I haven’t seen anything that would convince me to get back into the market. Although cds don’t give me much, it’s better than burying my retirement in the backyard.
Good Morning..thanks for the valuable advice… I currently hold about 30% of my IRA portfolio in gold EFTs. I hold gold EFTs, silver mining, Ford, Americas Energy Company, and a few other energy/oil related stocks. The only junk I have is what is left of my GM stock. Overall they have performed amazingly well, the return I have experienced on my entire portfolio in 2009 was 42%. So what is it, more Gold and Silver or less? The upside has been very good for me but I sometimes wonder if I should be selling some and taking some profit, but outside of reinvesting in what I already have I don’t know what I would do with the profits -they are mostly within my IRAs- I was going to just buy more gold efts realizing that I probably would not experience the return I have experienced this past year, so I will await your answer. Lee S. Broadston
Please comment on the usefulness of inflation protected bond funds in today’s environment.
Interesting i left a perfectly valid question who low do you think the markets will go , but 3 hrs later my comment is not on this blogg !! (after i saw if on there)
Martin, most of the email you and your associates send is just marketing and sellling !!!
all you suckers who listen to martin and his lot at the end of the day are only trying to get you to part with your money.
Thanks USA for getting the rest of us in the world in this mess !
Gold still glitters and silver still shines for 2010.
5% silver, 12% gold and 60% treasury MMs
I was long on silver stocks (SLW, SLV, SVM) late last fall. Most commentators said 2010 was the year for commodities. Silver seems to be undervalued compared to gold and has other industrial uses. Now, it appears the bottom has fallen out at least for now. I am not sure if China is the main culprit or the rise in the dollar. If the dollar keeps rising in the short term, I am not sure if silver and gold are the place to be. Yet, the lower entry points for the stocks are appealing. Once again I am confused.
I AM ADDING TO MY SILVER AND GOLD HOLDINGS SLOWLY AS I FEEL OUT WHERE THE MARKET IS HEADED SHORT TERM. I HAVE LITTLE DOUBT LONG TERM IS GOING TO GO UP. I LIKE THE SILVER (SLV) & GOLD (GLD) ETF’S THE BEST FOR THIS.
I AM ALSO BUYING MINING STOCK ACCORDING TO LARRY EDELSON’S RECOMMENDATIONS.
RON
I think that high quality stocks, strong balance sheets with low debt to equity and above average dividends will be rewarded with above average returns. Floaters or bonds with coupons that reset periodically should continue to do well. There’s a group of closed end bond funds to exploit this asset class. EFR, EFT are two examples.
If the dollar continues to rise it will be difficult for gold and silver to regain there shine.
Hello Martin;
Aside from “paid” off real estate I’m 90%+ or- gold silver non perishable
food stuffs fuel traps ammo hierloom seeds tools etc etc. Am I crazy?
I don’t know but I do know time will tell. I’m trying to stay away from all
paper. God bless you Martin and everyone reading this.
The second coming of the Christ(Jesus,Yeshua,Isa) may be near.
Isaiah 53:3-7 Be ready please,please,please
I am almost completely invested in a TIPS fund. I feel that inflation may be a concern in the future and would like to protect my savings from it. I thought about commodities such as gold and silver but with all of the recent hype, I am afraid it may be the new bubble and have already missed the upside in the rise. Can you comment on TIPS funds. I read your book and after reading it I got out of mutual fund stocks and went into Treasury inflation protected securities. It was the only thing offered through my company’s 401K. Please give me some advice. I’ve worked all my life and I am nearing retirement we are scared to death of losing everthing we have worked for. Thanks so much for your continued updates…..Jeff
Have 25% invested in gold, the rest I keep in cash. Am holding, expecting gold to dip to 850 ( around what I bought it at last year), but 600 isn’t out of the question either. I expect it to be back up at its highs again within 18 months. Why am I holding and not selling? It’s 25% I can afford to play around with and I don’t feel like paying the 3% commission on each offloading and repurchasing transaction. John, Ireland.
There are a few people that believe in Numismatic gold coins for their money. I’d like to speak with them as I follow the coin market closely.
Miners and Material stocks are taking a beating, and I’ve been kicking the tires once again.
If China does advance the Yaun, the dollar will tank fruther and push Gold and Silver and oil even higher. There will also be more calls for “dumping the dollar” internationally.
Treasury currency manipulation is finally doing it’s job and shaking out the Chinese Peg. Import prices will rise and we will finally have balance in the markets as it should be.
At that point I will be all in Commodities and International companies
I read one poster calling Martin out over gold prices. I’ve also seen many questioning his forcasts, however, you need to look at the time frames and longevity. I believe in 2006 I was reading the rants about mortages from Moneyandmarkets and it took 2 years for the actual economic implosion to happen. Things do not happen overnight in the economy and the markets. We are in a short term cycle bases solely upon government induced confusion. Earning numbers really aren’t that bad either, not great, but not bad. Once the Obama administration purposely tanks the markets again, like in Feb/March 09′ to get his agenda passed through a fear stricken populus, it will be business as usual.
I am looking for bottoms in gold and silver at that point, when China can’t take anymore inflation and stanchly pushes up the value of the Yaun.
I’ve been investing in gold for quiet some time now, its somewhat profitable silver very little however I see that picking up some pace over the next 25 yrs but my biggest investment is going toward renewables over the next 10 to25 yrs solar panels are going to be the next oil and those stocks will be very inexpensive at first and then there going to soar, a few of my friends are following my lead and thats my medium term investment, just watch and see I believe Im on the right path, wind generation all are going to fly thats going to be the next industrial revolution and the US had better pick up the pace if its to be the leader my money is going toward those stocks. Dan
My thing same your thing please helping me build a more profitable portfolio for 2010 thankyou verry much
I got out of gold and silver in late December. Plan to get back in when I think we hit bottom. Will buy SIVR, GLD, AUY, EGO and other small miners. About 20% of my total trading account.
Long term I remain convinced that the USD slide will continue. Short term, I am equally convinced that the USD will rally further as the FED continues to contract the monetary base and M1; as the M1 multiplier does not yet recover; as private sector credit continues to contract; as the FED discontinues its currency swap arrangements with other foreign central banks as of February 1, it’s purchases of MBS as of March 31, and to de-lever it’s balance sheet in the year ahead; and as other currencies become less attractive due to sovereign debt and banking problems in their own countries. I also believe the contraction of the money supply by the FED will become so severe as to lead to another financial crisis and stock market crash, the best evidence for which are those preparations the US government has already undertaken: $4 trillion pre-approved for next financial crisis; Fannie and Freddie unlimited guarantees extended to 2013; higher FDIC insurance to $250M extended to 2013; money market redemption suspension law enacted; recent measures increasing government powers to a virtual dictatorial status in the event of a national emergency; an overpriced stock market relative to PE ratios due for a significant correction, etc). Remember: the FED is part of a global association of central banks and elitists whose ultimate intent is to undermine the sovereignty of nation states and therein eventually centralize power in the hands of a one-world government – THEIR one world government. Those who believe the FED will continue QE, for example, beyond its promised expiration are short-sighted and are expecting the FED to do so to avoid a depression. However, I believe the time has come when the FED will bring on the depression by tightening the screws to the US economy for the benefit of its masters and co-conspirators and it will continue to act more so in their interest, and against those of the American people. It will be awhile before the FED again resumes its inflationary slant, and will find a way to do so once it again serves central bank’s interests. That is, if they still need to due more damage to the world economy in order to finally induce the nations to accept it’s one world currency and government.
If we see two critical factors changing now: the price of oil and the Fed’s currency swap ending on February 1; it appears that we should wait for these two trends to revese before we invest more in gold and silver.
I see the principal factor driving gold higher as the continuous printing of more dollars.
I see inflation ahead of 15 to 20%. Even now everything is inflating in price.
Food, energy, insurance, municipal services, etc. are all increasing rapidly.
Gold and silver and natural resources are the best alternative to inflation.
How can we invest in natural resources other than precious minerals to diversify
our inflation hedges?
Daniel Murray
For me the inflation protectors are gold and oil.
It believe about 3% of one’s holdings should be in precious metals stock. The primary reasons is that gold keeps pace with inflation. Inflation will increase due to many reasons including our government’s policies. So one should consider increasing that percentage somewhat since it is only a question of time until inflation becomes a major factor.
I do believe gold and silver are in a bull market for the long term. The correction we are undergoing now is eventually going to turn into a good buying opportunity. Just wish I had more money to invest in gold & silver here in the short term.
What I would like to have more information on is how our whole life insurance policies will benefit us. My husband is currently reading a book which goes into some detail about this topic. It is so hard to decipher the insurance lingo. We are looking at putting some additional PUI into our policies as part of our college planning with one daughter attending college later this fall and then our other daughter next fall. Just haven’t been able to get the answers we want as far as how much we can pay into our policy and then how/when/how much we can borrow against our policies to fund college tuition without any adverse consequences, if any?
With the insurance arena being one of the few areas that the government hasn’t gotten their grubby hands on, it would be wonderful to find a good resource in this topic. Also for our retirement plans with us now at the age of 48.
im to cheap how long will my good side prevail i shuld drownd him or shut him out
I have been buying gold stocks of late. Also trying to build a portfolio of a penny stock / xxxx. So far have bought almost 300,000 shares. I believe it will explode when it stops reinvesting all income and lets some go to the bottom line.I bought one of their producta about 4 years ago to use on my basement walls of my new home and I really liked it.
xxxxxxxxx I use a linux version called Ubuntu. I can not join you online though I have no trouble with your Emails.I get your video and sound really good on email, but cannot do the same online to your site. Roy.
Gee…Do you think the feds can print more GOLD&SILVER ???
I have been investing in silver since 2004. I have done well, but am still waiting for the big silver rush. I’m not sure what is keeping silver in this range since gold has taken out the $1200 mark.
Martin, what do you think will happen to silver in the next year? and why?
thanks again,
Edward
I believe Silver is the better investment given the fact that it is more affordable, $17.00 per Troy ounce as opposed to $1100.00 for gold. Also there is a large demand in the Industrial Market for Silver & it all goes back to supply & demand. I would like to see the Gold/Silver ratio much closer though.
To John W. Neff …
90% of amateurs loose money in the markets !
Judging from your message, you will be a very emotional trader … professional traders will eat you alive unless you take some very good courses.
If you want to day-trade, take the premium service at inthemoneystocks.com. They will guide you live through the best trades of the day they can find. Very educational!
If you want to trend-trade, take some courses from http://www.candlecharts.com
I studied trading for a year before I took real trades, and I am now 80-90% successful because of these two website.
Don’t fall into emotional trading traps !!!
Instead of gold bullion I am thinking of looking into some precious metal ETFs. Wonder what your readers thougths are on this.
I think it’s over for metals. Unfortunately I go sucked into the bubble. Now I’m going to take a loss and get out.
Today’s column in Money and Markets, “Fed’s Currency Swap Lines: A BIG deal for the Dollar,” solidified my opinion.
The dollar may be strong for years to come, until the next big melt-down. Anyone who bought metals before the last two years would be wise to take profits now.
$900 is the range gold will be at before too long. And I’m afraid it will stay there for quite some time. The only thing that may counteract the fed’s withdrawal of dollars from foreign markets no longer needing liquidity could be the rumor going round Davos and reported on CNBC. It was stated that China may un-peg its currency from the dollar which would result in lower valuation for the dollar as the Chinese currency rises.
it sounds reasonable. Even though China holds a huge reserve of dollars, they would gain by helping their own internal markets. Materials would go down, Chinese citizens would see increased purchasing power and internal business would be enhanced.
Even then, the lower dollar may not help metals. A lower dollar would help U.S. companies’ competitiveness which would increase business activity here. That would completely change public sentiment which is bad for valuation of metals considered a hedge against a falling dollar.
I’m about 10% in American Gold Eagles and about 1% in GLD and SLV. Will gradually add to GLD and SLV regardless of price fluctuations. I’m also interested in TIPS – treasury inflation protected securities – and am surprised no one seems to be suggesting them, instead of regular treasuries.
I have taken down some profits on my gold/resources funds and currently have about 10-15% of my investments in gold and other natural resources. While I have a few gold coins most of my investment is in mutual funds and a special Royalties partnership (oil and natural gas). My financial adviser thinks I should be about 5% in gold, but I don’t agree that I should be that small. I also am concerned about putting too much into gold (some are advising 30% but this strikes me as too much), so I have more than my adviser wants me to have but less than a lot of the pros and suggesting.
Gold ? Soon, but not right now because:
1) Employment is down WW
2) Debt is all-time high WW (see Charlie Minter Special Report)
3) We have hit the oil wall – Cantrell was down 30% last Y (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
4) Japan and UK > 400%+ Debt/GDP Screwed ! Japan no resources, UK has Shakespeare and bad Iraq decisions.
5) If Stocks roll BACK down, don’t let falling piano hit you !
6) Dollar will go up as long as stocks going down
After all this plays out (18mos) LOAD ‘EM UP !!!!
From my perch down under in OZ, I set out to assess what was likely to unfold after the massive deleveraging had occurred in all markets and that was coming to an end late October 2008 [Precious Metals], Resources [November], Banks [January 2009] and the Aussie dollar [March 2009] along with major Worldwide share indexes.
As each sector bottomed, I set out to place 40% of my investment stake in Gold & Silver coins [ratio 25$ in gold to 1$ in silver], 20% in gold shares [as they bottomed with bullion] , 20% in major Resources & Uranium shares with massive mineral ore deposits in the ground that would last for generations [such as BHP Billiton & RIO], and finally 20% in top shelf Aussie banks [ such as CBA, Westpac, NAB & ANZ - all of which are rated in top echelon of world banks - rated AA]. Those sectors that bottomed first got the bulk of the investment stake as they can be expected to perform best as the new bull market unfolded.
Because I believe the world fiat currencies are going to implode/hyper inflate in the near future, I am expecting all assets will continue the recovery bull market after the current massive short selling [SS] corrective wave ends. I would expect new all time bull market highs in due course – not because the world economy is all that strong – rather because the money base is being expanded as if there is no tomorrow. Measured against the assets I’ve listed above, the Indexes will not perform anywhere near as well.
Some plump for a massive deflation to occur BEFORE this continuing up wave occurs but should it do so there would be a massive breakdown of civilized society as we know it. The massive and aggressive short selling [SS] now current is probably predicated by some who expect the Dow 30 to retreat below 1,000 and Gold and Silver to fall below their 1990s lows. All this while fiat is being printed ad nausea! I don’t think so. Virtually all savings would be destroyed with the attendant political risk should deflation of that magnitude be ‘allowed’ to occur.
Continuous money printing is the line of least resistance for politicians and that is the path I expect them to follow.
Consequently, I would invest additional funds in the same ratios as outlined above as the current SS wave ends. I would avoid ALL debt instruments until Governments return to asset backed currencies [gold standard?].
A small land holding in the country where one could grow ones food for sustenance would also be desirable.
That’s what I have done or intend to implement.
PS
There is also an IMMEDIATE need to reintroduce the SS up-tick rule, bring back Glass-Stiegel, force ALL trading back onto the exchanges where stocks are listed and eliminate ALL forms of trading that is not transparent to all participants. In addition, the percentage of a stock that can be SS should be capped at 10% of capital listed on the exchange. Until this occurs investors will continue to avoid the exchange in droves.
I have put a considerable percentage of savings in GLD, SLV and CEF and just recently discovered the Silver Bullion Trust, from the same groups as CEF. These seem to be viable ways to protect from inflation although these are an investment as opposed to the insurance value of precious metal in your possession. I have seen no events or trends that make me want to sell.
Hello my name is Donald R. Reynolds I am 50 years old and have been in the investment biss all my adult life. I am also in the oil ad gas biss and work with compaines all over the world. There is no recovery The Fed need to pull out over 1 trillion dollars out of the system by spring if they do that the everything will tank. If they don’t do that we will have hiperflation. I feel that they will go for the hiperinflation. I look for municial bond market to fall alot could be to the point of breaking. I look for cities to start laying off workers. Also I think that there will be a push to take a real close look at the fed (FDIC) I am a numbers guy so I only look at the number and the numbers tell me that 2010 will not be a good year for the stock market. As of December 09 we have sold all equities and now are only in cash and in Silver NOT THE ETF we feel that the ETFs (gold and silver) do not have in storage what they say they have. of couse this if just what we think. We feel that any cash value in such things as llife ins or anuities should be cash in. We are only holdng enough cash in any bank to pay for expences for 3 months ahead. All other cash is in storage. We feel that Washington will keep spending untill they see that will not work and at that time it might be to late. PLEASE FORGIVE MY SPELLING I SUCK AT IT LOL . We look for food price to start going up alot by the end of 2011. One reason we like silver better that gold is because we feel that silver has not kept up with gold and therefore could be a better investment at this time of couse we will whatch for hiperinflation to start letting up then at that time we would be a seller of Siver. But I really dont see that happing for a good while. We feel that the dollar will keep going down and in a few years could be 10 to 20 years the dollar will be 0. THIS IS JUST WHAT WE THINK SO YOU WILL JUST HAVE TO LOOK AT THE NO”S AND DECIDE FOR YOURSELF. Good luck to all of your and God bless Donald R. Reynolds
The new method of finding gold (not silver) has me wary. As an insider, I see
that gold production could greatly increase if desired. The reserves are greatly understated and will continue to be. One Company shows reserves at 5% of actual
to maintain the market.
I have nearly half of my portfolio in gold or gold mining shares. However, I must add that I’ve had them for a number of years, so I’ve done well.
The important point about gold is that it is NOT an investment. It is a means of preserving purchasing power. We live in a fiat money world. A fiat currency has no intrinsic value, and for just that reason it can only be measured against other fiat currencies that also have no intrinsic value. As a result, currency trading is a kind of beauty contest that can easily founder on the whims or egos of politicians.
For reasons of trade competition, the world’s currencies are collectively in a race to the bottom. And, make no mistake, they are going to get there. There’ll be no winners, only losers. The bottom line is that gold may not buy happiness, but it will buy things when paper won’t.
Is that the right approach for everyone ? I don’t know, but it works for me.
Historical ratio between silver & gold is $15-$1. By this measure, silver is cheap! There is less silver “above ground” than gold, and silver has many critical industrial uses, including mirrors, health/anti-bacteria, and electronics…including solar energy. It is difficult to increase production, as it is a by-product metal in mining production, & supplies are scarce, as it is found near the surface. With the emphass on solar energy, just China’s demand alone will soak-up more than the world’s production. I love physical silver. Only store bar/coins yourself or in a secure 3rd party location, & make certain your silver is not co-mingled with other owners. The silver ETF is another option, but they are not taking your money, buying silver & then issueing shares, but are “short” some metal. “Pure play” silver miners are rare (like platinum). I expect silver to perform much better than gold in the future…more likely to see $100 silver than $2000 gold!
time to stop all activities until march. no further connent at this time.
I own some defensive gold and silver stocks, but I am not planning to “load up” on precious metals any time soon. As Money and Markets has stated, and my analysis confirms, gold could go down to $700 an ounce (a 36% decline from today’s prices) and still continue the current trend.
With the Euro showing weakness and a strong U.S. economy relative to the rest of the world, the short term outlook for the dollar is bullish. I believe that will result in lower prices for gold and other precious metals.
When reading your last e-letter, I learned that the dollar is rebounding and you seem excited about that, but how high will it go and won’t the price of gold just go down because of it?
Q. #1 Never is the time to LOAD UP on ANYTHING. When everyone crowds into ANY asset, it becomes a guarantee of poor returns for all except the very earliest. And as everyone crowds in, the earliest have already move on to something else.
Q. #2 About 10% -20% is the most I can justify. I would need to convinced of the absolute end of the world, at least as we know it, for more.
Q. #3 If/ when all currencies totally collapse, gold and silver is universally recognized. I am not so sure I could count on the same for the others.
Rather than comment on what I have been doing, I was interested in what all the others have been doing. Unless I missed it, no one mentioned MLPs with all their advantages. I have substituted them in place of bonds which I know very little about 3-4 decades ago purchases of nusmismatic coins have been purchased periodically and in the last 5 years I have purchased gold and silver stocks and bullion added to perhaps 40% foreign and domestic stocks, most of which have gained moderately. My present dilema concerns whether to sell most of my portfolio now, await the nadir and reevaluate. Every effort has been made to flee the paper dollar.
The Inverse ETFs don’t seem to work.
Can we short regular ETFs?
I believe 10-20% of portfolio should be in gold/silver.
At least another 10+% should be in major energy producers (Exxon, Chevron, etc.). Need for oil, gas, chemicals, pharmaceuticals will keep petroleum products in demand for many years. Alternative sources of energy will take many years , if ever, to totally replace those products. (Note: those major producers will absorb alternative producers as they develop significant markets; they have the capital; they frequently diversify; this is one way they grow!)
I have put about 80% of my cash into gold and silver. It is kind of scary watching it go up and down but ultimately it has gone up and I am glad I stuck it out so far. If one has all their assets in cash, one can also sit and watch the dollar drop which should be frightening as well but we are not conditioned to do that. I took everything out of stocks several months before the 2008 crash because I listened to the warnings of people like Peter Schiff and Jim Willie. Their track record was a lot better than MSNBC and other mainstream outlets whom I lost complete faith in when they served as mendacious propaganda machines for several illegal wars.
I would like to buy gold stocks and perhaps some oil stocks but I don’t have time to delve into the nuances of these vehicles so I just stick with PMs.
I`ve began investing in physical gold and silver, and will continue there is a dip.
I won`t sell it even if the prices decline.It´s an investment for years or even decades
Dear Martin: Yes its time to load up on gold and silver, I’m already loaded up so it’s time for Larry Eggleson to put it in 4 wheel drive and hit the paddle.
At the moment I have about 30-35% of portfolio in gold and silver…..both physical and stocks.
It seems very likely the downturn will continue but I am not selling as longer term these and other commodities with greatly increase in value. I do not plan to buy any more gold and silver at this time. But I would like to own some palladium, as well as other commodities including agriculture and oils. My favorite right now is silver, as it has a long run ahead, once the behind-the-scenes manipulation is out of the way. I foresee nothing very positive in our economy in next several years so feel comfortable in this asset class. FYI….very, very few people want to hear my ideas, so I appreciate reading the thoughts and actions of others on the blog. Thank you all!
OK gold seems high at present therfore to hold back might be the logical stance but it any sign of the “double dip” it will appear a safe haven and rise higher.
Gold unlike notes bonds and securities has an intrinsic value and should be seen as a stand alone security hedge.
In 3 /4 months when markets stabilise more and uk election over, the economy will appear to be stable and strengthen so gold will fall. If this fall is in region of 10% or more I believe this would be a good time to enter the gold market.
Check out e bay prices for good indicator of interest from Joe public!
I agree with Tom D. I have more trust in XOM and many great U.S and foreign corporations than any government issued paper, banks or any company that does not produce tangible products. If these great companies fail we are all in extreme trouble.
H. McKinney
I have been very active in the precious metals market for over 25 years having actively worked on a daily basis in two prominent businesses. Lots of experience both in the precious metals and numismatic field. Right now, I see the palladium market with a very strong upward trend. Palladium is an essential material for use in the auto industry and many others household necessities and with platinum in the sixteen hundred dollar range, palladium is for sure in demand! Of course gold is prettier with lots of emotional appeal but is just not needed that much for anything essential. Yes, jewelry production but much of the scrap being sold today is being used in the manufacture of new jewelry. My next pick would be silver which is also needed in industry and is actually used up and not recycled that much, Try to buy this metal from around $16.75 to$17.25 an ounce and don’t be a a big hurry! Set aside a fixed amount every month and use this money to purchase whatever you choose in the metals market but do this religiously! I am a customer of Kitco and opened a “pool account” with them recently (no charge, no storage fee, no hidden charges etc.) and so far I love it!
Martin: My investments are allocated as follows: 31% Mining Stocks; 24% Money Market Funds; 26% Gold; 16% Silver; 3% EE Bonds. Gold is in 1 oz rounds and silver is 50% circulated coins and 50% bullion. I know this is alot of metal but I am happy with it and have had it for a number of years, have done well, and am thankful. Stan Clemenz, Pensacola, Florida
I have roughly 1/3 of my retirement portfolio in gold, silver stocks, mining, mutual funds; about 5% in gold coins. As to your last survey, I have about 25% of my ret portfolio in high dividend yielding stocks of private companies, royalty trusts – no treasuries.
Now is not the time to load up on gold or silver. They are both on a down trend that should hit below 680 for gold and about 8 for silver
Silver would seem to have the greatest upside potential in terms off percentage. I can see a 100% gain in a year or so with silver. Can’t see the other metals doing as well.
Buy no matter the price. It seems that a major crash is coming our way, and metals IN HAND would be a good wealth preserver. Investments denominated in dollars are too risky.
I am interested in secure dividends. I did find one ETF: PGX. I do like the security of gold, silver, etc. my timing isn’t good. Anything you would recommend I think would be a learning experience Thank you for this space to reply.
Answer: What do you do for income? My living expenses are paid for by social security and $600 monthly cash from investments.
Dear Martin,
Thank you for your great advice and providing this forum. I have physical gold and silver coins, along with several gold, silver, and platinum mining companies. I am also short the Euro, Oil, Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. As to core holdings, XOM, P&G, MSFT, PBT, and NRP. I hope my comments are useful.
Bill Frysinger
Holding back on investments and hope to be in a buy position in what appears to be a solid buy position and a healthy economy.
What is better for a fair share with one’s own position?
I am staying at least strong in current position.
Gold,silver ect. are good, but I think lithium is go to be huge!
I believe in the theory of contrary opinion; especially now with all the doomsayers predictiong this to be the Decade of Doom. Good stocks still abound if one is prudent and thorough in researching them. Gold is still in a bubble and never behaves in a rational way for any sustained period. As long as interest rates remain microscopic there will be interest in high dividend stocks. Crunch time will come when inflation kicks in, as it surely must. Bernanke can only keep the lid on so long.
Stan Springer
What would happen if CHINA decided to invest its new found wealth into extracting its vast quantity of GOLD ore and then flooding the market with the large volume in one great heap.
Not a nice thought.
I’m inclined to favor Silver 4 mine.
many thanks for your great insights and mail
Ray
The time is coming soon when all people that own Treasuries with a longer maturity than 3 years will be devastated. Do not own anything that is fixed in dollars when the value of the currency is in question. This includes bonds of any type, except convertibles with very little premium to the current price. fixed annuities, savings accounts in an amount in excess of one month’s needs, bank CD’s and especially municipal debt.
State and local debt is possibly the riskiest of all investments, because these governments can not print money, as the US Federal Reserve can. People can not pay enough in property and sales taxes to fund the state and local government pensions that are already accrued but not showing as liabilities on the balance sheets. Efforts to impose higher property taxes will further destroy property values.
This means that everything that was was considered the safest investments just a few years ago are actually the most risky investments.
What to own?
Commodities
Stocks (positive trending only) and
Real estate – after the bottom (which is not in the near future.)
Do not consider anything to be a long term holding – watch everything closely and be ready to act quickly.
Look to offshore real estate in countries where retirees will go to avoid the coming socialism and economic collapse in this country. This will be a big movement in coming years as the Boomers retire or face faced forced retirement that is due to Washington’s failure to act in favor of helping the economy by decreasing regulations and lowering income taxes across the board (yes, for the rick also.)
One remedy? PASS THE FAIR TAX
The news out of Davos seems to be trashing hard assets.There also seems to be denial regarding inflationary forces.Governments rely on the faith and credit of their paper currencies.The reality to me seems they are a house of cards and that ultimately value must be ascribed to those assets that are necessary to drive the engine of everyday living. That why I am heavily wighted in resources and metals.Whenever I read that demand is decreasing because economies are slowing I laugh.As long as human beings procreate we will have the need for utilization of critical resources.
I’m buying mostly silver when the price dips a little,also I have recently purchased some
certified gold coins.But mostly staying in cash or other fixed income products.Don’t
like stocks,however I’m not selling any mutual funds I own.Cd’s don’t pay anything but
they are not going backward.
I loaded up on GLD and SLW back in March and April to 15% of my portfolio. I figure this ample insurance for the rest of my portfolio. I feel sooner or later inflation will catch up with these crooks and my insurance will have done its job!
BUY ON DIPS FOR GOLD AT THIS PRICE POINT…A DIP IS UNDER WAY NOW, HARD TO TELL HOW FAR THE DIP WILL GO, SO, I’M WATCHING FOR THE MOMENT.
I’M LOOKING AT OTHER METALS ALSO, ONES WITH INDUSTRIAL USES LIKE SILVER, PALLADIUM…THEY COULD BENEFIT IF WORLD ECONOMY IMPROVES IN THE FUTURE. MANY PEOPLE LIKE THE IDEA OF ASSETS YOU ‘HAVE’ NOT JUST ‘PAPER’ YOU HOLD.
I believe in gold and silver for the long term, but I think that the correction that is beginning has longer to run. Therefore, if one is starting to invest in the metals, it might be wise to wait for a better entry point. Gold may go down below $900.00. If it does, that may be a good time to buy.
I prefer gold and silver.
I like Silver. When you hold $1,000.00 of Silver in you hand you know you are holding something. When you drop $1,000.00 of Gold, you may have trouble finding it. Silver has plenty of industrial uses and seems to move faster than Gold. Silver is also easier for the common man to buy and sell. Scrap silver is easier to process than the other three precious metals. I LIKE SILVER.
One of the best investing quote I have ever read was “Arguing with the market is a costly debate”. It doesn’t matter whether or not you are reading the facts right if the market moves against you regardless of the facts.
The time to load up on gold is when it sets up either a breakout to new highs or breaks out of a cup & handle breakout (per William O’Neil’s writings). I.e., I don’t try to pick the absolute tops & bottoms; just follow the market’s momentum.
The warnings signs of this current correction were many, but the best were new highs on % NYSE short sales, % advisors bullish, % advisors bearish, dwindling supply/demand stocks, general index distribution levels, and most importantly, the breakdown of the DJIA and S&P500 on 1/21/10. Since everything had been making crazy single day gains recently, and was reversing as the indices were coming under heavy distribution, I bailed on every position I owned (SLV, GDX, XME, VNR, MVO, KOL, TAN, and a position in my employer’s stock). I may invest in some currencies, but I will not buy stocks until we get some investable follow-through (1%+ index gain on rising volume), and will not invest in commodity ETFs until their technical indicators become stronger (breakout) or unless we see follow-through in the corresponding commodity charts.
Generally, I would wait until a position violated its 50 day moving average before bailing, but this is such a painful wait that I lost patience and sold. It worked well this time, as it saved me from giving back 10-15%.
On the negative side, I completely missed SGG’s (sugar ETF) December breakout. When I first noticed it, I though it was pretty silly to have an ETF on sugar. By the time I took it seriously, the train had left the station. I have a friend who keeps reminding me that its always better to be on the outside wishing you were in than being on the inside wishing you were out.
Now, back to gold & silver: the current chart looks very much like the Feb-Apr 09 chart. That would suggest a pullback to about 1025 to 1050 (not quite as pessimistic as Sean). If so, we have a bit more downside to go. I may deploy a small position at that point. However, if I do, I will keep a very tight and uncompromising stop at 1000. Otherwise, I will bide my time and wait for technical strength.
David “The Lemming”
I believe in gold and silver for the long term, but I think that the correction that is starting has longer to run. If you are new to investing in gold or silver, wait for a better price.
I think a prudent investor should have about 20% in gold bullion coins in a safe deposit box. With the US deficits so huge for the forseeable future and the US Monetary Base recently vastly increased I think serious inflation is a certainty before long. Also, US Federal borrowing cannot keep growing and growing without eventually undermining international faith in the US economy, the dollar, and the viability of the US to be able to repay the borrowed amounts. Huge US Federal borrowing cannot continue indefinitely without eventually causing a major financial catastrophe, hence gold as insurance against this. I do not trust the US Government, corporations, and financial institutions to deal effectively with this situation.
I am in favor of Gold and Silver stocks.
My portfolio did a good job in 2009 and hoping to do even better in 2010.
I already added more shares of Gold and Silver stocks which are producer or close to be.
Although, I have some concerns;
A) looking at Gold/Silver ratio which is above 65 (it means we are facing trouble base on Bob Hoye)
B) Middle East tension
C) Power of Manipulation by FED
D)
Currently, I am in a liquid situation – CDs and cash. I do not expect the
stock market to climb as a result of the demand for jobs. I feel the interest rates
will start to climb as the economy begins to strengthen. I plan to invest in Gold.
But I feel Silver will be the best investment in the future.
I am a great believer in Gold and Silver in the present situation. If ever get to a truly free and open market without some big banks manipulation, they will be a great long-term investment. Perhaps the CFTC in their March meeting will tackle this long-term
crime.
To have wealth close, gold is likely better because greater value can be stored in a smaller space. Physical silver is good as well and 2 seperate respected commodity investment researchers have recommended Silver Wheaton (silver streaming company which means it obtains material from mining companies and removes the silver). Silver, I believe, has the most long term upside. Its use in solar panels, medicine, industrial catalyst, electrical conduction and finally energy storage (see z-power batteries) gives it an edge beyond the psychological value.
I like master limited partnerships. See cqp (cheniere energy partners), look at the deal of chesapeake with French Total, look at the location of the Barnett Shale where they have purchased 20% of Chesapeakes interest. The gas will likely go to this plant, one of the largest natural gas processing facilities in the world. I bought at around $9 4 months ago, its almost $15 and pays a 14% dividend yield. Set a 25% stop loss. FMO via claymore is a fund based on MLP’s, 7% dividend yield, once again set that stop loss. Even in a downturn they will still pay if they are moving gas. Made good on BHP and VALE for iron production, they went down recently but long term will be great players. GOF is another fund by claymore, 10% dividend in bonds, 25% triple A and decreasing to B. its been hanging in there quite well.
There is no way to determine the future. It seems that silver has more than psychological value. Its use in industry is high and should increase with increasing complexity of technology. The human psyche is fickle. It would no more suprise me if gold went to 900 and lingered there as market gets back on its feet. It would not suprise me if it went to 2000, for all the very good reasons mentioned in previous messages. Question is where to be now? I see much more natural gas use and a possible conversion of coal power plants to Natural gas. Energy storage in batteries for vehicles, an upgrade of electrical infrastructure, high speed rail and its component commodities (iron and mettalurgic coal). I also urge everyone to look at a company called Thermafreeze. Order some and try it. 47 pound converts to 1600 pounds of reusable refrigerant that gets cold faster and stays cold longer than any similar substance. It is hitting the shelves soon. It is on the pinks but will soon be reporting. It will mark a shift in coolant material because of price, performance and need. They have a patent, the only way to have a Monopoly in this country, and direct to consumer sales are beginning now. I have much stock in this company. You heard it here first. It will be volatile until reporting, but I anticipate the development of a thriving industry and the further evolution of products based around the material. The right venture capitalist move is where the large fortunes are created. If this one goes, I will have created a level of wealth beyond my expectations for this point in life. Good luck everyone (dont go big with a penny stock based on this, its still speculative until there are monetary assets and earning reports). Chevies Newman, MD
i think silver is a good investment.i plan on buying more because it is one 5that i like the most,
Dear Martin,
Every one seems to be seeking as much as they can out of what is available in the market place be it stocks, bonds, or money funds. Certainly, the last option is not providing much in the way of return. With interest rates at an all time low like Japan for the past 10+ years, bond funds would seem to be somewhat risky at the least. Stocks have appreciated since the sell off in 2008 but at this point one must wonder how much more appreciation will take place in them because the reduction in the work force at many companies and liquidations of assets has provided them with the means to pay reasonable or expected dividends but how much longer will that hold, particularly if interest rates are punched up. I find it interesting that the economy seemed to do fine with a Fed rate of 5% that Greenspan maintained for such a long time while everything in the economy seems to be struggling with rates nearly at 0%. My short term accounts are returning about .01% interest on a monthly basis. Isn’t this basically money loaned to the government for nothing? Is that what cash money is really worth, ZERO? The outlook for government deficeits is grim. They throw the term “TRILLION” around like a “billion” used to be mentioned. This is disturbing. Put into perspective, a trillion seconds is equal to 32,000 years! Money essentially no longer has any meaning – it’s just “numbers.” Does that also mean it no longer has any value? This is a daunting thought – one not to be taken lightly. Also, a breaking point seems to have been reached. Too many people are employeed by governments (federal and state) while the private sector has lost signficantly, hence a break point no one has really talked about much may or has already come to pass (high unemployment numbers) and private sector jobs are no longer there because companies have moved their productions out of the country (i.e. “off shore”) to counter regulation and taxes. Jobs simply don’t exist anymore because we don’t manufacture much of anything here any longer. Are skins and hides yet our #1 export as it was several years ago? (Article by Syndicated Columist Craig Paul Roberts who said our export list at that time read like that of a third world nation!).
I believe it is time to turn to the one asset that is time tested – the one that knows no whims of politicians nor political influences – Gold (and Silver) – and in ernest! There is no indication the current administration of the United States, nor any other party will change the course of excessive spending policy. The rest of the nations around the world are for the most part in the same boat. The only thing we have to look forward to monetarily is a progressive confiscation of weath from the American people by a continuous process of inflation through money printing to pay for excess government and monetize the national debt to a more managable level by debasing the value of the dollar. You would do well to educate your subscribers about these facts. There is no hope in paper assets much if any longer.
Respectfully submitted, Mike F., Colorado
This time next year Silver will be higher. Silver is a great value at these levels, but that doesn’t mean it won’t get cheaper. As people bail out of stocks and get margin calls, they’ll sell their winners too. Once the august 2008 lows are taken out it’ll rally back, later in the year. I think CYB is the best cash alternative as the Yuan is tied to the dollar, in a stronger economy, with higher interest rates and probably much less risk than the USD if your time horizon is greater than 1 year. I can’t see how the Yuan will not rise against the dollar. (dittos to the Real).
Martin– Sold everything Jan 11-13. All T-bills now. Will re-buy 25% gold & silver when gold is $1050 and the other 75% at $1000 as bullion, CEF, GTU, SLW & miners GDXJ and later GDX. Will not rebuy any stocks or ETFs until your predicted 2010 crash. Will then slowly re-buy energy, water, agribiz and country ETFs; avoiding PRC, Europe, Russia and most countries peripheral to them; only EWC, BRF (& maybe EWZ), EPI and EWA. I read you (for decades) and Klaus very carefully, but avoid your longer term picks since I am 84. Met you and your father in Orlando in 1990. If you like military/business/political history my 2009 bio is “Memiors of a Cold Warrior.”–Lee
i have found the old financial planning method the best, as follows:
1. start early,
2. the best method SIP,
3. dont put your eggs all in one basket (spread your investment in fixed income, equity, realty)
4. dont get marrioed to your investments.
5. always remember equity gives the best return.
6. give in charity (for causes that you have seen doing good work)
Since you asked:
We are buying gold and silver mostly. Started over 20 years ago, but took a long break in there somewhere. It was an expensive nap!
Personally, I like the 90% – the older the better. I only have one pre-1933 Five Dollar gold piece, but hope to acquire more. I like the current premiums on silver bars right now. I also like the prices of some of the Numis world. On a junkier note, I recently identified over 50 pieces of 80% Mexican silver at a local coin&gun dealer. After blowing the dust off, I purchased the lot.
Our stock holdings (the few that are left) are in International funds. My 401 K is in small and mid-cap stocks. I will likely rollover into a Roth, and then an IRA approved Silver bullion Trust acct. My primary Roth is carrying gold and silver mining companies mostly.
Only a little gold for now. I believe dollar is going to continue to rally and gold will possibly fall for the next few months. The cycles in gold indicate that May 2010 will be the time to buy gold as the dollar starts to go down again. Cycles are not always correct but all of the indicators say the US Dollar is very bullish for right now.
I think the “plant garden” advice was good.
If they could be held safely with certainty that the Feds will not confiscate them, as was done by Roosevelt long ago, then there’d be no question that physical precious metals will grow in value while federal ink on paper will grow closer to the value of the fiber and ink.
However, in the not distant future, commodities, including gold, silver, platinum will be recognized as the true value. It may be that holding shares in good mining companies might be an alternative which Feds would be less likely to confiscate ones holdings.
80% silver bars, 20% cash, 7% short US Real Estate. Regardless if the PM’s drop in the next few years, I’ll gladly take the drop in perceived value in exchange for sleeping very well at night, happy about being on the ‘right’ side of the most pressing issue of our times and the sole root cause of the present worldwide financial mess in all of its forms (central banking, fiat currencies, and fractional reserve banking). But most importantly, I fear the coming adjustment may be near instantaneous – a currency market wipeout could spark widespread loss of confidence and in those conditions who will sell their silver and gold for funny paper that people are dumping? Or, what happens to the ‘price’ of PM’s when a country, any country, reinstates a gold or silver backed currency?
Hi Martin,
I have 2/3 of my portfolio in fidality in conservative stocks as Idon’t want o lose any more if the markets tank and dividend stocks, also gold and some silver.
My wife and I have several investmnets that are counter trend too paper currenicies.The recent sell off in commodities mostly based on profit taking also China’s announcement too tighten money supply also affecting hard asset prices.I think it’s temporary ,and will they will continue there upside trend until 2012 when dollar finally bottoms.We also will be making a major purchase of Silver Eagles for buying food and supplies when anarcy finally hits the US with a vengence
I am a buyer at 1050 / oz and below. Gold is the only currency that will stay strong against paper. One can’t paper over this.
I view holding gold and silver mainly as an insurance policy against the many potential
crisis facing our world and our country. If you want to buy gold and silver, tihis is a good time to do so because it is “on sale” now.
I probably have 60 to 70 % of my portfolio in good gold and silver stocks, more in gold
than in silver.My experience has been that when gold rises in price, the stocks rise about three times as much. But there’s no free lunch ! ! When the price of gold
goes down, the gold stocks go down about three times as much. But I’m betting on
you and Larry and other reliable sources that believe the long term direction of gold and silver is up. If it is good enough for you, it’s good enough for me. And thanks for
your continued great advice.
401K- 100% mining shares.. but i trade only mining shares.. 50% personal in cash . 35% in gold & silver bullion & high grade rare coins the market is still hot conpared to 1980s highs there a steal. And what about the story the chinese in october of 2009 received a shipment of fake gold bars that came form Fort knox that were tungsten core these were 400 oz bars the shipment was reportedly 5600-5700 bars fake paper money for fake gold..lol theres a new game in towne
P.S.
palladium is a steal at $200-$210. Yes i know it’s in the $400
check the ten year chart and see what i mean.
since it’s the carry trade metal wait for it to come down again
and then load the boat…i did twice.
huge profits await!
and make sure you sell when the price goes up again.
the 100-0z. russian bars are sweet and ampex is a great source.
oh and i did sell twice too! no chump here!
(just remember to put some aside for taxes!)
God bless
I have gotten out of all Treasuries and plan to stay out. I am looking for good companies with high dividends. Also buying Gold on the down times,
Jay,
Regarding Inflation, money supply and gold.
Inflation is sector based. Some sectors of the economy have no inflation, computers, TVs, etc. Since there was a drop in housing and other asset values, monetary expansion is not a threat. It has a neutral effect, because expanding money supply is an attempt to bring prices back to previous level. So where is the inflation? Now you can buy more house or land for the same $$. There is no inflation is the REAL sector of the economy, because aggregate demand has fallen.
Tom Clawson 01.29.10 at 7:40 PM
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Please remove my 01.29.10 at 7:40 response and replace it with the following:
I follow several news letters and then make my own decisions. I am convinced we bottomed out today, 1-29-10, on gold. $1080 has held on the close after being broken significantly during trading. Most gold stocks have taken it on the nose but a strong recovery is near. Buy all gold stocks on the TSX or TSX Venture exchange. The dollar will be turning down again and the Canadian dollar will then gain back what it has lost to the US dollar. A few extra dollars in your stock trading can be picked up that way.
I am not convinced yet that we are not headed for a full blown depression. If that should occur, all bets are off. Gold would be the only survivor but who knows at what price.
I invest in collectible (pre 1933) gold and silver. Gold bullion is not as good, due to its ability to be tracked and confiscated by the government.
I’m 60 and until the economy went flat had a good plan for retirement. Like many others I own investment property. I’ve managed to sell some to lesson my tax and other related expences. I own my dream retirement home in full, and at this point have my spare cash in low interest bank accounts. I’ve just experienced too many investment set backs and am affraid to make another mistake. I know that I can exist on the interest. I need a sound strategy, safe, secure. I thought that real estate was safe, ouch! I did invest in gold in 1979, only to loose when the bubble burst. Why is now any different from then? I have made a little from short term stock trading, but I see the risks with putting too much money in the market. It really doesn’t make alot of sence to me to take big risks. Any suggestions?
After heavy punishment from RBS shares – I have gone for safety and concentrated on ISA’s. Not very imaginative, but depending on inflation safe enough.
Anything else mystifies and frightens me.
All precious metals should do well in the coming decadeBut palladium should do the best
1 Due to its relative scarcity
2 The new ETF allowing many more to own it PALL
3 Its industrial uses which are increasing
Palladium is for me ,reseach it and see . the convert. prefered debentures that arer not being jockeyed around.
Given the degree of ‘quantitative easing’ that’s taking place, the major western currencies are pretty shot long term. Therefore, I think that it’s time to start putting regular amounts into physical (pr physically-backed) gold and silver. However, there appear to be some major manipulations going on to keep the price of silver down, so it’s not wise to put money in that you may need within a year.
Martin so far you have bee a pessimists for the stock market. I remember last year when you were anticipating the end of the world.
For the ordinary people to make money in the market you have to be a bull. Buy quality companies that make product or have services that people use every day. Control you greed and fear, have diversification and dividend yield in your portfolio and the patience to see it grow in value. Every other plan to get rich quick is a fantasy and a road to ruin.Tthere is no way to make quick money in the market. There is only a quick way to loose it.
My trading account is alive and well (above water) because I went all cash last week when the obvious was not pretty.
Martin-I am looking toward you for sage advice. You keep saying that you will throw your thoughts into the discussion but you don’t do it!!–Steve
Hello Martin,
You asked in a recent email what I do to make money. First, I got completely out of the US dollar, US Treasuries, US stock market, and US bubbles built more on fraud and hype than substance. I am an American with 12 years experience on Wall Street in crisis workouts, 7 years office in DC, high level strategic planner for the RNC and Wall Street. I saw this coming in 1994-1996 when significant changes were made to US bankrupty law that eliminated stockholders as a party in interest, SEC reporting regulations that could be all fluff if they put in the cruely useless ‘Disclosure Statement’ at the end of their corporate propaganda, and even removal of 18 USC 1964(c), civil RICO, to take back what was premeditatedly stolen from unsuspecting investors.
I now live in Austria and Slovakia as the head of a nanotechnology company. I prefer to make my own opportunities than try to dissect what is truth and what are lies from Wall Street and Washington DC.
Looking at the US from afar is like looking at a house or WalMart with dirty windows.
Your service provides much needed advice to those still stuck in the US media matrix that touts even the worthless. I have followed your email updates for years and, if you recall, even cited your work in a book I wrote ‘One Way Ticket to Crawford Texas’ i 2004.
I was going to do a sequel ‘Revoking the License to Steal, from You’, but decided to apply my time elsewhere.
Your insights are research that is more valuable to me as what not to do and for that ‘thank you’. Just about every email update from your team confirms that we went the right way in 2005 and divested of America holdings.
Karl
Silver seems to be the right play for me since it is less espensive and there is commercial applications for its use. Gold is purely a hedge against inflation or panic in the markets. Silver has more upside, I think.
Up until recently, I’ve had much success with the metal ETF, XME and UYM, the materials ETF. Although they’re down substantially over the past 2 weeks, I think its time to pile back in. What do you think?
I agree 100% with what Maurice Rothman wrote! When our lovely political leaders took us off the gold standard, its been down hill ever since.
I would like to be in Silver right now but do not know the best way to do that. I am one of those middle American family people who scrimped and saved. I do not have nearly enough for anyone to want to manage my money. What is the safest way to be in silver? I can’t store it at my house as I have been robbed 3 times last year.
I’m a long term gold and silver bug. I’ve sold half of GLD @ 110.95 and plan to buy back at 100. Who knows, but these are my most comfortable holdings.
Nope, wait for the dollar to change course before you buy anymore precious metals or commodities. However, hold your positions for now. That’s my read. Now how about Wiess putting their neck out on these questions with some answers or their own??? Too risky???? Come on, take a chance Wiess.
Dear Martin,
Thanks for the invite, but I have joined your family to take advantage of your intelligence, knowledge, and experience in the investment field. I never claimed to hve valuable knowledge in this field, or I would be running my own investment service. Please don’t waste your time listening to the grat ideas of your customers. Instead, please focus on developing investment ideas, adn strategies that will allow us, your clients, to enjoy the types of profits you indicated were possible when you launched the Mlllion Dollar Portfolio. I’d like to hear how you, and your people are going to show us the kind of profits you told us your father made during the first economic crisis in this country: The Great Depression. Put Claus’ feet to the fire, and make him, and help him to explain why our portfolio is in such poor condition in spite of the profits that have been made in the indices just since you opened this service to HELP us. I don’t doubt your sincerity, but your performance certainly doesn’t hasn’t matched your sales pitch. I’m looking forward to you addressing these shortcomings in your company’s poorly performing portfolios, or if I’m wrong, please take advantage of this opportunity to tell us just how happy we should be with your performance, and not wasting your time listening to the ideas of your amateur investing clients.
Respectfully,
Greg Smith
I am 100% short, the bulk is short equally between gold and silver (80%) and the rest in oil. IMHO, gold and silver are a bubble, Goldbugs will be crushed next week, i recommend a tight stop if you are holding either. the problem with holding them is they tend to drop so fast and hard that you cant get out fast enough and your losses are huge over a day or week, i have seen as much $150 drop in a trading session. it is extremely dangerous now get out and stay out now, you can buy back latter in the year at a large discount. i will close my short when it bottoms out and buy as much as i can as i believe the up could side rise to $2000 from $500. i have always been a goldbug and consider it a safe and profitable investment, but i also think is a bubble and the downside will force holders to sell. beware!
My experience with gold and old gold coins is a very long hedge against inflation. I bought my first gold in the mid 1980’s in the form of a roll of $50. Gold pieces. The very instant I bought them the roll lost about $1500. in value. Obviously, that’s not true today because I still have them. Incidentally, at the time I was a practicing appellate lawyer, since retired, and my advisor at the time was a petroleum engineer business partner (I argued with him he advised me to keep them and buy more).
My first love, is, and always will be, debt paper specifically when its bought in the .10 range from the FDIC. I came out of retirement to get back into the game. Prior to the FDIC failing in 1988 my partners bought me out with Qualcomm stock, which I still have…go figure! Debt Paper is the most fasinating business I have ever been in and still is Hennessee Hedge Fund comes to mind as they do well in the debt business.
C.J.
Hi Martin,
Looks like we have dollar bounce. It may be better to leave hedge metals for a few months.
I can see gold back to the $1000-00 mark
Regards
Ed ,in the UK
My favorite precious metal is silver for the following reasons:
Silver is used in a varity of industrial applications and consumed on a daily basis.
When silver is used in industry it is gone forever.
There is less above ground silver then gold.
Historically the ratio between gold and silver has been 15 to 1, now it is about 60 to 1.
Silver manipulation by some big banks cannot last forever and when those short positions have to adjust the price of silver will explode.
Silver is still cheap compared to gold and capable of a much higher rate of return on investment over gold.
Individual investors are flocking into silver and gold as a safety net during these times of uncertainty.
Our fed is supporting the case for precious metals through the monetization of debt and the debasement of our currency.
The Chinese government has recommended that their people invest in precious metals and the more affordable silver is an easy choice. With the rapid growth occurring in many emerging markets the demand for industrial silver will grow as well, thereby further reducing inventories world wide. Can we say supply and demand?
Silver is in a position to play catch up with gold and when it does, watch out!
I have already kept 85% of my assets in gold form, but since last 45 days I am diapointed by the kind of fall in gold price! I will wait to see opinion from Mr.Larry edelson and Mr.Sean Brodrick in current situation, as I have full faith on gold since last one decade, this time curcumstances are different due to doller rally against all curency, but I hope gold will not fall below $1018.
I have loaded up on GLD, and also gold mining stocks such as AUY and RBY. I have also invested in a base metal ETF, as well as silver (SLV) and Platinum (PTM). The total amounts to about 50% of the portfolio- perhaps too much. However, my view is that at some point Gold and otherprecious metals will continue their upward trend based on the likelihood, as I see it, of rampant inflation.
what you say about pakistani stock market it is touching bottom now a days what should be the strategy to pick the growth stock and how to avoid pandemonium while buy the stock at karachi stock exchange
One great opportunity is licensed companies able to do business in Iraq [very few]. Yesterday DFSH [Defense Solutions] got their first contract $60 mil.to supply food [mostly sugar]. They have been offered by the Iraq govn’t to broker huge supply of fuel oil and oil. These new contracts are fairly advanced and will also be signed soon. They have also sell and rebuild military necessities as Iraq is preparing to be independent of the US military. They have sold over 330 tanks with lots more in the pipeline. This will be a huge story, now trading at .30 up .06 on Friday on the news.
I’ve been a gold bug for almost thirty years. It hasn’t been a good investment, though I have more than doubled my money. I always considered it as insurance.
I’ve always been in real estate, and real estate has been good to me. But I think the bloom is off the rose. It’s time to do something else, but I don’t see anything I would even consider putting my money into. Fraud is pervasive throughout the entire financial system.
What is a person to do? It seems to me the only sane investment is precious metals. Is there a good international precious metals fund to invest in? One that has dealt with the plated tungsten bars problem? I don’t want to buy into a fund holding worthless inventory.
I have a precious metals fund (VGPMX) and also bought GLD and SLV. I think it’s a good mix. That being said I seem to have bought at the high and portfolio keeps going down. I did not put in a stop loss but I feel in the long term (2-5 yrs.) they will be up. I wondering if when I get a gain, I should sell and wait to buy back in. That’s always a question in all investments for when. Knowing when to sell!!???
Financial guru Richard Russell speculates that the only way to resolve the debt crisis with the least amount of adverse consequences to the greatest number of people is to put the US dollar back on the gold standard, and then for the US to set the value of its gold reserves at $5,000 per troy ounce. He says this will eliminate the entire national debt and even create a bit of a surplus in one fell swoop. Many other nations also faced with their own debt crises, like Great Britain for instance, would probably follow suit he thinks. This of course would be wildly bullish for gold, and silver too by association. If this scenario is plausible, then of course one should load up on silver and gold, now. I have never seen this idea proposed before. Any thoughts? Would it work? Could it be done? How probable or feasible is it? But then George Soros said last week in Davos that gold is in a bubble, one likely to burst soon, contradicting the predictions of his long-time partner Jim Rogers. Even China’s central bank said as much recently. So, who is one to believe, and what is one to do? It seems to the novice that the value of all things, including real estate, equities and commodities appear to be determined by powerful interests with global macro-level leverage who are in pursuit of their own agenda, whatever that may be. Free markets do not appear to exist anymore. Instead, values appear to be determined by whatever seems to suit the powers that be at any given moment. Perhaps this is too cynical, but all markets today sure seem to the novice to have that aura about them. Thus, what is the average investor to do? Who he is to believe or trust? In this climate, even precious metals may not be the safe haven that tradition or history teaches, not when determination of their value at any moment in time is not so much determined by free markets and classic supply and demand as they are by powerful interests who seemingly hold all the cards and can do with values whatever seems to serve their agenda. It appears we may be living in a time where clever manipulation of markets and values by well-coordinated powerful forces may rule the global roost. If so, the only way to protect one’s wealth or secure steady, stable growth in one’s portfolio is to know what direction serves the interests of the powers that be, and good luck trying to figure that one out.
Does it not appear that daily fluctations in currencies and commodities seem to have very little substantive basis, and instead move up or down in an arbitrary or even whimsical manner? For instance, I see gold and silver declining now when both should in reality be soaring to unprecedented heights given the financial mayhem afoot at the moment. Comments?
during the 70’s inflation the best place to put $100. was stocking up on groceries . Today, the best place to put extra cash is in items you will need in the future. Assuming you have no major debts, buy a car if you expect to need one in the next few years, fix your home or buy one now. Invest in your business, buy land, tools, store inventory, etc. as real inflation (not what is measured by the government) is likely to increase. Think usable and/or long term resellable commodities and physical items.
Every expert that I listen to, has a theory based on their belief of the way market patterns identify trends. Often this is enough to get predictions right. However, this is a time of fundamental economic and consequently political shifts in which governments are manipulating the world economy with consequences, in my view, yet to be seen.
Based on this, I believe that any long or medium term investments are possibly unsound and may turn up major loses. However, buying and selling short term could be profitable.
Luis
Yes, and selected oil stocks
Hi Martin!
Given the Current Account Defecit here in the US and the Current Account Surplus in China, amongst other reassons like government spending, and risk of soverign debt default, etc. I see gold and silver as the two best substitutes for the dollar. In my position, I chose silver because I believe it has the most room to appreciate at this point. Ofcourse, this is only used for 10-15% of my portfolio. The rest should be A or B rated Corporate Bonds with a mix of riskier bonds depending on your risk tolerance as well as some overseas stocks. With Bonds at least you most likely recover your principle. As far as T-Bills and other government bonds…. I don’t like them due to the possible risk of default. Granted there are some that are worth the risk and have good tax implications, however, I like to wait and see how well the US is going reduce it’s deficit. Short-term tresuries are good in a crisis.
Best Regards,
Zach Ryan
Gold (and silver) has withstood the test of time. Five thousand years ago gold was money. Today gold is the only real money. Fiat currency (paper) is too risky.
I AM FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WHICH I THINK THE DOWN SIDE IS LOWER THAN THE GOLD STOCKS.
I think Gold is a sell, gold bugs have had a good run, on the perceived fear that has been generated by certain people that the us dollar is going to crumble. Somehow i don’t think so it still has a large mobile military. As the supply of us dollars gets rained back in and the dust settles you gold bugs that have paid over a $1000 an ounce are going to be left holding a worthless metal. Gold is a relatively abundant metal with little use, it’s primary value is a store of greed and fear. All this talk about inflation is bullocks look around can you see it. Does anyone understand math 1 trillion x 0 = 0. Only now does there appear to be a very small multiplier out there and which way is the market heading down.
How about GDX and GLD during 2010 ?
Martin, just switched to AAA Corp. Bonds 5-7% Net. Broker advised Bond Interest
only PAID Jan. and July???? So far, none. I had assumed Anniv. Dates. Advise, pls.
Also, is Fed currently Guarantee Money Mkt. Funds?
I think that I have a good portfolio mix. I took the plunge on Gold last year about a month too early. I had a Municiple Highway Bond which they called and paid, $25K. So, I bought 27 oz of gold @ 940/ oz in Sept. Then gold dropped to 720 +/- in October. Also Platinum had dropped to around $750 +/-. I have 2 more bonds @25K each. My total stock portfolio dropped in the last 2 weeks from 102K down to 98K. I wish that I had about 25-50K in Cash so I could buy more dividend stocks during the recent market drop.
When you think precious metals have hit bottom, buy. In other words, buy on the dips. As this economy implodes by design, gold and silver will be all you can rely on. Also, stay close to the financial news letters. They want to annuitize our 401k’s and IRA’s. This way they can control us with what they deem to be a yearly stippend with worthless $$$.
I find the various articles published by you of great interest and help. However my attitude to individual recommendations is coloured by two facts – I am a small U K Investor and I am now 80 years of age!
It follows that whilst following your views on portfolio structure a am primarily investing in UK Securities.
Hence 25% of my holdings are in Index Linked Savings Certificates.
15% is invested in an Investment Trust solely invested in the Indian Stock Market
10% is invested in Investment Trusts invested in Overseas Markets.
A small amount is now being drip fed into an Investment Trust specialising to Emerging Markets with emphasis on Brazil, China and Russia.
We can see the manipulation of metals,..but we also see the manipulation across the board in other sectors as well. It is only a matter of time before this erupts. One would be well advised to acquire gold/silver,…even at it’s current price point. My favorite is silver,..being it has a greater chance of at least, doubling or it’s value per ounce, than the other shiny ores.
My bet is placed, predominately for the above said reason on silver,..but we must not overlook the many other common sense “hedges”,..for our and our childrens futures.
Such as,…(buy a small farm) with that gold and silver profit in the near future,..then start one’s own garden. Simple.
Tom R.
Normally I would say yes, but the strength in the dollar is continuing, and in that scenario precious metals take a beating. Will the dollar get stronger? I doubt it, but for now it could go higher, so while I have over 20% of my portfolio in gold and silver I am keeping some powder dry to buy when the chart shows a turnaround.
Dr. Weiss: I just don’t know. Probably Gold, oil, and batteries, and hi yield dividends. I’m more concerned about 2011. I think market will bomb then. j
I personally have been acquiring gold, specifically numismatic gold. All pre 1933 US gold coins, with an emphasis on low MS grades between 60-62. This is where the majority of the growth has come and I have been obtaining a premium for the numismatic value above the basic melt value of the gold. I do not recommend higher grade numismatic gold above MS 64, as those have not experienced as much growth, and in some cases, declined. For playing basic gold, the GLD ETF has worked well for the short term, as well as bullion grade coins. For gold bullion I stick with Canadian Maple leafs for their high gold content.
I usually take my next year living expense out of my IRA when my stocks are up and put it into money market funds which I use as quarterly distribltion to me personally. It is good discipline, but now it is possible for the government to freeze up money funds. This would leave me without living expenses for who knows how long. Are there better places to put these funds in the US or somewhere else?
Regards
Keith
I prefer to watch the charts, especially P & F charts for signals on when to buy/sell.
Fundamentals alone will miss the mark.
Frederick
No- one should NOT load up on precious metals yet. There will probably be a 10-15%
spike up in the next2-3 weeks but this will just trap investors. After that,there will be a leg down below the current levels. That will be the time to go all out after the precious metals. The market has set a trap for the unsuspecting investor to trap them into spending now and have no powder in the next couple of months to do the serious buying. Re. treasuries- I have shorted them!.
I think silver will go up faster than gold. I also like writing covered calls on silver and gold. Increases the return. Have a great day and a wonderful week!
It is time to sell off all commodities and hold cash, period!
There will never be enough live humans to consume the food we produce here on earth.
I can’t give away what I grew last year, There is a huge shortage of credit in the ag sector due to the recert $ losses not being discussed publcily. There is no money available for the pipeline jobs either, just lip service, no work yet. Precious metals being brought in secretly from secret mining operations are steadily building up.
Be ready for the fed to begin harvesting their handy work from the masses!
It is time again for 24% interest to teach us and the Dems to worship their dollar!
Metals at this point about 25%. I’m more into silver because it’s qualities for medicine-as you probably know, it’s bacteriostatic.
Before this year is over commodities will be a winner. Precious metals, agriculture and energy will all win this year. You see, Printing Press Ben is not going to stop printing money and neither is the world. Watch what they do on monetary policy not what they say.
Gold is in a corrective phase which will continue with the dollar enjoying a dead cat bounce and the interest rate on the Long Bond dropping. It could test the 65 week MA at 965, but I would expect that to hold at which point I’d add to my holdings with considerable confidence. Long term, I expect an ounce of gold to buy one share of the Dow somewhere between 3,000 and 5,000.
This is not a good time to invest in gold/precious metals because the dollar is rising and may continue to do so for a long time. As the dollar rises, all assets decline including precious metals and equities. If in doubt, buy short term treasuries.
Martin:
I currently have about $100K on the side lines waiting to come in, but for the life of me I don’t know where to put it. The money I do have in equities has taken a big hit in the last 2 weeks so I don’t want to put more there. Gold seems to high to come in now.
The current administration is clearly anti-capitalism so you never know what their next
crazy scheme may be. Add to that the very real possibility that some sort military response against Iran by Israel is coming, which will have horrific effects on the economies around the globe and I just look around and think there is nowhere to protect the resources I do have. I need your help!
Hi,
I have been a goldbuck for many years, got stopped out of a few positions but went back in with “stink-bids”. Waiting for it to go below 1000 and will buy gold and silver
to represent about 30% of my portfolio, the balance is invested mainly in the recource sektor. As a Canadian, no us treasory bills!
I like Ferrel Gas Partners (nyse FGP),an master limited partnership,because it pays a $2.00 dividend which is totally tax free (almost like a muni bond). It pays this because its dividend is classified as a “return of capital, ROC”. I must admit that I found out about this stock by accident,looking for high paying dividend stocks in the Wall Street Journal. It has paid out this almost 10% amount for 76 consecutive quarters,so there is quite a history behind this particular company. I think it definitly deserves consideration for anybody interested in high income,low risk investments.
As in past uptakes gold and silver etc are headed for a bubble bust.
I believe that every private investor should hold some physical gold and silver. I see value in gold or silver ETFs if they are redeemable in the physical. I consider junior mines to be a better value especially if they provide dividends. Currently the game has been hide and pretend, the great debt has to clear the books some day. Without an increase in employment and a non-sustaining stimulus; we are in for another dip. After another dip consider greater QE or dollar devaluing to happen. Sure the dollar is strong now, but not on its own merit. I see most commodities increasing in the future.
I am into all the Gold and Silver Venues,except Physical Silver and Gold . I would like to buy some but with all the companies selling today I do not know who to buy from. I would like some advice on which refiners and which sellers are reputable and should be considered.
Is it time to load up on gold and silver was the question asked..
In my opinion, the recent USD rally does not have legs.. For those with and without
a precious metals position, this recent dip is an opportunity to “scale in” a position.
We may see a further dip in the gold price as far down as about $1000 USD but
I’m starting to buy gold and silver in a 2:1 ratio (66% silver and 33% gold) due to the historical ratios between these two precious metals. Long term, I see much higher prices for these monetary metals.. Remember JP Morgan said “gold is money and nothing more”. Sure beats a flood of banknote paper if you ask me!
I am within a few years of retirement. In October or 2008, I sensed what was happening in the market and placed 70% of my retirement investments in “fixed” funds(including treasuries) and bonds. I lost only about 17% in this account in 2008. I have remained primarily in bonds and have gained 9.8% in 2009 in this primary retirement account. It is up by 1.8% since the first of this year. I plan to diversify other funds in a variety of ways, primarily in the area of precious metals, energy, etc. in 2010.
Mutual funds are less risky than stock shares.
Nice website , Martin. My crystal ball says a top is in place, wait .. Big selloff : buy cheapies like F, C, BAC, ETFC… MSFT will double in the next 14 months.. Dollar will rise.. gold will stay about where it is.. and that’s about it… I don’t give this out to anyone , BTW.. Thanks for the nice Newsletters.
Regards,
Khun Jim
HI , I m owning at the long is SVM , CEF , MPEL , TAYLOR WIMPEY , LYG , VXX
I look forward for any advice … I read all you article and watch all you video
TAKE care ALLL
Going with the crowd can be hazardous to your financial health, and the level of pessimism that is building toward the safe haven commodities tends to dampen my enthusiasm for good returns, or even protecting my capital investment going forward. Therefore, I plan to continue a strategy of wide diversification with global quality stocks, bonds and, a larger percentage of cash than normal to capitalize on the inevitable overreactive dips in the market for the days ahead.
I do not invest in mining stocks as you are reallyinvesting in the management team. I like numismatic coins junk silver pre1965 US coins. In small quantities they are extremely liquid. Find a reliable coin dealer and developable trust relationship.
Now: don’t laugh at me……I am buying preowned sterling jewelry at spot by weight. I can sell it at flea markets for profit, and always melt. For me this works as income producing short mid and longterm investment. Check out the store ads. 14k gold rarely featured for valentines day. Sterling jewelrymore affordable being pushed by retailers, some with fancy diamonds!!!
Index funds and ETFs are more comprehensive. Indidual stocks can go up or down depending upon that particular stock’s position. On the other hand, a group of index funds change is more orderly although a few stocks in the group are more volatile.
Martin & Larry, my two favorite people for comprehensive overall financial & mkt. input.
I suspect that the “New World Paper Currency” will be Gold and not some hypothetical world currency developed by consensus. Gold has two major advantages over “W.P.C”; first, it can be implemented with less consensus and second; Gold, is harder to manipulate because of circumstances precipitated by “power and politics.”
Let’s face it; the present Administration is a “Loose Cannon” and will take severe steps to “side-step” or distract, if their power is threatened — Like selling arms to Taiwan at this time, or taking steps that cause the Dollar to bounce. I feel the mkt. is now dangerously volatile for investment purposes. I agree that the dollar will continue down and commidities will rise, additionally China, Brazil etc. will expand —- the real problem is “Timing”—- Question: How can we put a handle-on and anticipate the Administrations next moves ? This is our real problem! Any Ideas? Thanks, Anthony M
Hi Martin,
NO, I do NOT believe this is the time to load up on gold and silver. We need to wait for this current deflationary trade over the next short to intermediate term to play out. My Fundamental, Technical and Cyclical analysis is showing that we have a pretty good equity market correction underway RIGHT NOW, it should be at least 10% (We already are over 6% right now) Therefore, just like in late 2008, all asset classes are coming down with the exception of: Cash, The Dollar, Treasuries, Equity Shorts and possibly some short term gains in Natural GAS. Thus, I have moved a lot of my gold stock funds to Cash, Treasuries, Short Funds and am doing very well this year. I have sold my Gold Stocks 2 months ago. Also, I AM HOLDING MY CORE GOLD coin posiitions. These were bought 3-8 years ago. Once this major correction is completed (mostlikely sometime in next 3-9months) THEN we will head back into inflation trade and it will be time to accumulate stocks/commodities and get out of cash and treasuries…A major note of caution: This intermediate term deflation trend could extend longer than 9 months…we will have to evaluate on a a daily/weekly and monthly basis…
I am mostly in gold and precious metals funds with:
Vanguard VGPMX
USAA USAGX
Rydex RYPMX
I have had an awful feeling for many years about where we are headed with the dollar.
I thought that this would be my protection but am now wondering if I should buy gld, HL, SLV, gold coins, or silver coins to be diversified away from the stock market. The above mutual funds have moved down as the market has moved down.
It is silver for me. It is valuable not only for jewelry, tableware and the like, it is a functional metat used in many industrial products. It is sure to appreciate for years to come.
The dollar has rebounded. Many think this is just a minor blip in the chart. I don’t. I see a stronger recovery for the dollar AND a much weaker price of gold this year. Why?
1) like it or not, the dollar is still the reserve currency for the world and with the potential of Greece (and other euro economies) defaulting on their debt hanging over our heads, the dollar is safer than the Euro. China and India + BRIC countires? Many consider it too risky. I’m not one of them but the correction in Sino stocks has me on the sidelines there. (here I agree with Gregg the UK currency trader and others on the $ vs Gld play)
2) Gold is a much stronger inflation play than a deflationary play and the stronger dollar with weaker gold is pointing to a second dip recession ahead with worldwide effects is a possibility. (I agree with Bob C on this).
3) Inflation WILL be a problem but maybe in 2011 or more likely 2012. Economic problems and resulting social unrest worldwide may be the seed a 12-21-2012 scenario.
4) Some have questioned why we don’t have inflation now. Simple, all of the government money off the printing press is NOT getting into citizens hands. We’re all fighting to keep our jobs or get new ones. IT’S JOBS STUPID! Inflation is cuased by too many $$$ chasing too few goods, and that is certainly not happening now. Where are those bucks going? Banks and wall street. Companies are building up cash and/or paying down debt. Oh yes, and there are those obscene bonuses too. Lest you think I’m a socialist Democrat, I’m actually a centrist life long Republican & NRA member. But I’m a pragmatist first!. When we ALL do well, we all DO well.
I gave up on long term investing long ago. After getting burned in 2002, I learned to follow market cycles (short & long term) and have done dramtically better in the interim. I follow the money and therefore don’t fall in love with any one investment style. I never listen to guru’s anymore. They’re only out to fleece you.
I’m out of metals & mining, into UUP and short term Treasuries temporarily, waiting for the next move. I’m an experienced technical analysis based self directed investor with several portfolios in the 7 figure range.
You staff and publications have benefited me greatly. I don’t always agree with you or accept your exact timing ( I think Larry is too bullish on GLD short term), but I always LISTEN to what you have to say!
i will only look for opportunity. it means follow the trend untill it reverse.
Metal is not a place to speculate or to hold long period. i prefer to speculate the currency, and buy to good company whom pay consistance div in times. if i will get into the metal world, the only choice is either the capital appreciate, and no interest or div pay out. In stock or currency, its has the element of div or int, which is a continues game. plus its up or down.
i might be wrong. Therefore each type of speculation or investing is much depend on own interest or expertise.
i will put my $ in the place where people dont want and i will run away when many want.
i will only look for opportunity. it means follow the trend until it reverse.
Metal is not a place to speculate or to hold long period. i prefer to speculate the currency, and buy to good company whom pay consistance div in times. if i will get into the metal world, the only choice is either the capital appreciate, and no interest or div pay out. In stock or currency, its has the element of div or int, which is a continues game. plus its up or down.
i might be wrong. Therefore each type of speculation or investing is much depend on own interest or expertise.
i will put my $ in the place where people dont want and i will run away when many want.
A portion of my portfolio is dedicated to gold and silver holdings. I own CDE, ABX & SLV. I would consider owning GLD and other mining companies whenever the trend turns upward. Waiting for Claus to say the word.
Most talk about “investing” but they are really “speculating”. Some think gold is overpriced (compared to what?). It’s only half the price it topped out at in 1980 in real dollars. Remember “two steps forward one step back” is how things move up in a bull market, until the breakaway and “to the moon, Alice!” When gold or anything is truly skyrocketing, when the masses get involved, well, that’s the time to sell, unless the currency collapses. Recently read the 98% have never held a gold coin in their hand, hardly the masses. Last week someone saw a silver dollar in my hand in a coin shop and asked what kind of giant coin was that? Some say “I have gold and silver,” but what they really have is paper receipts for paper gold and paper silver. Gold and silver are not investments! They are a means of keeping some of what you have. They are always worth what they are! I have heard that silver is going to out perform gold for nearly 25 years now. I didn’t believe it then, though most do, and I don’t believe it now. Having some is probably prudent, but I wouldn’t go overboard. I’ve also read, but haven’t yet verified, that around page 31,000 of the Homeland Security Manual are instructions on what gold will be exempt if there is ever a recall (that which is worth twice bullion?). If one is rich having some platinum might be a good idea. Beware of anyone who is telling you precious metals are going to go down a lot. Look to the past to get an idea of what they can do. I used to fill my gas tank for 23.9 cents a gallon in the 1960’s in South Carolina, but so what? Inflation is necessary when you have a Central Bank and fiat money. Remember that some major countries and Central Banks are buying all the gold they can, as quietly as they can. Gold is simply insurance, real money that even time cannot destroy, but don’t go overboard on anything. Remember, all these things are ways to keep your money, not ways to get rich. If you want to know how to get rich you’ll have to ask someone else. I think after the Los Angeles earthquake which I expect before Autumn (THIS YEAR) that things will really take a turn for the worse. I wrote about this in detail in my politically incorrect book, “The Last Days of the Late Great United States” (amazon.com) about what is going to happen, and ultimately why. Hardly a best seller but I expect it to save some lives. US stocks are still overpriced, so are houses in many places, the national debt is unpayable so inflation is assured, houses being the exception. And every nation seems to be following us and trying to print their way out of debt. We spend over 200 million for every 100 million we collect in taxes. When will the Chinese and others who loan us the money (for everything) decide they had better just cut their losses and run? Not likely? Maybe yes! Maybe no! Time will tell. They could wipe us out in a week if they chose. In another book (my 2006 autobiography) I warned of the coming stock crash and mentioned a quote from a Chinese Colonel about economics really being a form of warfare. If we destroy the world’s ability to buy and sell you had better believe that there will be some who will do anything to shut us down. Nuclear War? With 93,000,000 Muslims around the world dedicated to death and destruction to serve their god (7% of all Muslims), yes, quite possibly, someday. A couple of high altitude blasts to create an EMP would be my guess. No one would die directly but I’ve heard that up to 90% would be dead in a year from the complete shut down of society. Again, not this year or next, but don’t rule it out. I fully expect a complete crash of the dollar and then the world fiat money system, not this year, not next, but it’s coming, and some very smart people think that most will realize this by 2012. Young or old, you don’t want to have just paper or you are likely to regret it. Smarter men than I have said, you can’t eat gold and silver. Several million Americans have a six month or more food supply on hand (as did most of the country 125 years ago). I just got two cases of Bega Australian canned cheese this month, free of dangerous artificial growth hormones which are illegal in most countries but not here, from Michael Glick of G&R Foods of Reedsburg, WI ($69 a case of 36 bigger-than-6-ounce-tuna-fish cans plus shipping). They are an importer/exporter of fine gourmet cheeses. This is more of a processed cheese with butter and cream added but will last for several years in a cold dry basement and decades in a refrigerator. It makes delicious sandwiches and I’m eating it as a regular thing. There are several large companies devoted to selling long term storage foods, like some cooked freeze dried ground beef that has an expiration date in 2035. You can buy ready made one year supplies of non-perishable food but if you do you will not get the best quality and will likely pay to much. There is time enough to learn about such things but not time enough to waste. Joseph in ancient Egypt told the Pharaoh that they had seven years to prepare. I don’t think we have that much time. Avoid canned tomatoes at any cost as the acid will leech hormone like chemicals from the liner and that causes pancreatic cancer and a few others. Much to learn but there’s time if you get going NOW! At least one Russian think tank believes the USA will break up into several countries in the ensuing chaos after Congress destroys the dollar. I hope not but Texas has the “right” to leave the union if they choose. Obama will be blamed but Congress is the one who spends the money, and we now owe more money than any nation has owed since civilization began! And it’s really worse than I have told you, but this isn’t the end of the world. It may well seem like it though. I have no solution except some of the wisdom offered in the ancient texts (the Bible) but remember, we have an election in November. Maybe we can slow all this down a bit. I know it’s not politically correct to say so, but I don’t think it can be stopped. I hope I’m wrong. May God bless America, no one else is going to do so.
I prefer to play intermediate/long term trends and hold physical gold and silver for both defense (gold) and speculation (silver) as well as some metal funds and like to buy on dips. Still holding about 50% in cash, another 25% in Energy stocks and agriculture and would love to find a screaming buy in Water stock/Funds. All other areas of investment seem pretty clouded at this point I hold a basic distrust of the Wall Street machine and outright dislike of corporate banking cartels where small investors are basically regarded as sheep to be fleeced.
Perfect time to buy silver and gold. I am in physical cash-20%.Physical U.S. Silver coins-20%. Physical Gold bullion coins-20%. I don’t trust the U.S. market at all any more. The other 40% is invested in Canadian mine stocks, Canadian oil stocks, and Canadian commodities and the Canadian fund ( all in Canadian currency) A few residual U.S. stocks that will be sold soon.
Do I sound afraid? Very much so. Tom P
Consider what a silver dime bought in the thirty and forties compared to a new dime today or the value of the silver in that old silver dime. Physical gold and silver is always real money and its their when you need it. You can bye some old silver coins every payday for cheap right now and nobody knows it. I am changing some of my retirement paper savings bit by bit every year to real physical money so I will never loose what I had saved.
With helicopter Ben printing money like crazy, I think that hard assets are the way to go, with gold, silver, and real estate being my best buys.
It’s hard to confidently determine short term market directions with so much government policy, Fed rate, World Bank uncertainty and the abundance of contradictory opinions and information.
A true indicator for me is global population growth of 1.17 % annually. With a present population of 6.8 billion and growing upwards to 9 billion by 2040, will, with a fair degree of certainty, increased demand on world resources.
I’m diversified in gold, silver, real estate, commodities, domains names, book sales and publishing.
I’m moving more into cash and increasing income wherever possible. I’ll take advantage of whatever government benefits are available: Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, etc. and hold on until more comprehensible indicators emerge.
Dr. Spencer
I am heavy in gold but less in silver. But I worried about gold stocks because it may go down with DOW correction. I don’t want to put all in gold but 40 per cent in cash, short t bills. It is hard to invest. We need help. You cannot trust anyone.
I have recently taken a more positive view of the stock markets and dumped all bond funds but still hold some short term treasuries. With the proceeds from bond funds I have bought high yielding stocks and PTP’s primarily telcom, utilities and energy. (All with ver low Betas) Also holding foreign currencies such as the Canadian and Aussie dollar instead of US $. About 30% into gold and mining stocks, but all bought on the TSX. Inflation is still coming big time and appears to have hit Wall Street with excess FED liquidlity, but Main Street has to follow soon.
To the question “Time to load up on gold and silver” I will just add that I was watching television in Madrid last week and was struck by the number of ads offering money for any kind of jewellery with even a small element of gold in it. On returning to London and turning on the TV I noted identical ads in Britain. I have not observed such an interest in gold since the the Carter administration some 30 years ago.
HELLO MARTIN: WE CAME 27 YEARS AGO FROM FRUGAL NEW ZEALAND AND I HAVE BEEN AMAZED AT THE AMOUNT OF CREDIT AMERICANS INDULGE IN. (CREDIT IS REALLY AN IMPATIENCE TO GET ‘STUFF’.) SO I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR 10+ YEARS THAT WHEN THERE IS HUGE GOVT DEFICITS, INCREASING IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS IMBALANCE AND SCARY HOUSEHOLD DEBT; THAT THE COMBINATION OF ALL THREE WAS A HOUSE OF CARDS. PREDICTABLY IN MID 2007 THE CARDS FELL SO I HAD CONVERTED OUT OF 90% OF MOST USA STOCKS IN 2006, PUT THE REMAINING 10% IN GOLD, SILVER AND LAST YEAR, MINERS. THE BULK OF THE 90% WENT INTO LAND IN OUR TEXAS MILITARY TOWN AND CAREFULLY SELECTED RENTAL REAL ESTATE IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. (THINK ‘GLOBAL ECONOMY’). MY READ IS THAT THERE IS NO PROFIT TO BE HAD AND INCREASING RISK IN THE BROADER USA STOCK MARKET FOR THE NEXT 6-8 YEARS OR LONGER AS CHINA GAINS FINANCIAL DOMINANCE. INSTEAD, I LINK RESOURCE RICH AUSTRALIA TO CHINA’S NEEDS FOR GROWTH. RECENTLY, AUSTRALIA WAS THE FIRST WESTERN ECONOMY TO EMERGE FROM THIS RECESSION. I BELIEVE THAT THE USA WILL SLIP BACK INTO RECESSION IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS REGARDLESS OF FURTHER STIMULUS, (BECAUSE THE THREE FUNDAMENTALS, ABOVE) STILL EXIST. ALSO, BY MID 2010, THE USD$ WILL BEGIN AGAIN TO DECLINE STEEPLY AGAINST THE AUSSIE DOLLAR. CHEERS: WARREN PS: BERNANKE AND GEITNER HAVE RUN OUT OF FACE-CARDS!
I have done very well by loading up on MLPs, Canadian oil trusts, preferred stocks and leveraged closed in muni bond funds. Recently I have begaun selling prefrreds that are callable and trading above par. I’m currently raising cash rather than investing. The next asset class I’ll be selling are the leveraged mumi bond funds as soon as the fed begins raising interest rates or the market prices begin to trend downward. I started buying gold mining stocks when gold was below $300 and have been selling into the rally after gold reached $500. I currently have only a few shares left.
Gold and silver are wise to hold going forward, however, people should also consider a rural property, farm which has good soil and fresh water. Family members living in Europe during the Depression and WW2 have said gold was nice, but ultimately food and a safe place with good neighbours is better. You can live without precious metals, but you cant live without food and safety.
Ultimately the days are fast approaching that will be apocalyptic in nature.
Great Prosperity leads to great depression. The western world has raped and pillaged the earth with no consideration about the future, i believe nature will bite back, and natural evolution will take over and follow its natural course.
The world’s economies are based on nothing, its a giant mirage. Beware… the game can literally end any day. Now is the time not to be investing and scheming about fortunes…the world will be plunged into darkness very shortly. Draw your friends and family close together in community and share your resources with those in need.
One area that is overlooked is the Natural Gas Limited Partnership arena if you adverse topaying taxes on your dividends.
Bill N.
higher the dollar goes the lower metals move, is this short term?
New here, first post, so please bear with me as I read up more and get more aquainted with the flow of things here. First off, I am very aquainted with PM’s. I have physical holdings first, in my possession. Beans, bullets and bullion. I am not a fan of paper metals, but respect it as a vehicle more easily tradable. I am a perma bull on silver over all other metals, well, lithium is my main DD focus as of late. I also am an avid DD’er on politics, international first domestic second. Then I look at blue chips, like Nasdaq, then the Dow, then whatever looks volatile everywhere else. Biomed is becoming a larger part of my portfolio, but over all I am a mid to long term investor, value,growth,history and innovation. Oh and honesty, when I say something I can 98% of the time back it up with numerous credible articles,links,and blah blah blah. I also dont mind criticism, I actually welcome it, I know I have much to learn yet, and am a new investor. I have made it this far, so I must be doing alright.
Inflation may not come in 2010 or even 2011 if we have a prolonged recession but
it will come .Thanks to Uncle Ben at the Fed.Therefore gold and silver is a good insurance
against possible very bad times.Natural Gas is a great energy buy.
Malcolm
Hello,
why are the major central banks are holding gold ?
Because gold is money, so it will store our wealth.
In my opinion, silver is more offensive. It is raw material, but it will be money like gold,
like the last 5000 years before people was thinking that a “fiat currency” is money like today. So the potential is much higher, but more volatile.
At the moment we are for little while in a defletionary area, so gold could test US 800 this year in my opinion, but this time it would be the last time to get it so cheap,
for sure.
Best regards
Andre
I’ve held physical gold eagles & silver coin in my personal assets for years, not as an “investment” per se, but as insurance. In my investment accounts I’m primarily in strong dividend paying stock and cash; divided between LIBOR and money market. I have moved to cash because I want the money to be readily available should an opportunity arise, but also because I don’t know where to put it. I say this because I think the economy will not recover but rather take another steep dive.
I looked at BRIC ETF’s but then I heard rumors of currency problems in Brazil, China and India. What to do, what to do?
Hi Martin
I would have to admit to being a gold bug . 20% of my wealth is in gold and silver bullion 50,50 . The rest of my portfolio is made up of mostly exploration penny stocks that have properties in what I consider to be the 3 hot spots of exploration activity in Canada , namely the Rice lake green stone belt , The Timmins area of Ontario and the James Bay Lowlands area also in Ontario . My reasoning is that when gold goes parabolic these areas will come to the attention of average joe public . What is happening in all three areas is that new deposits are being found quite regularly and they are rich . If one can get in on the ground floor of some of these companies now it would seem to me that the only way is up as time passes . All my Stocks Trade on the Canadian exchanges . My favourites are SKP, NOT, PX,NRN ,WEL , KNX . I also have a small position in Coal as well , CMK .
To answer this question, one must answer several other questions first. The first question is; ” is gold still considered money,and thus the foundation of the sound money pyramid, or is it a commodity that the bankers were successful in replacing with the incontrovertible IOU’ s of FRN$s. I believe it is still money. I believe that the central banks of the western world will debase paper currencies to save the private banking instituitions at all costs. The
debts of the government, compounded with the debts of corporations and the people , will
lead to hyper inflation on the long term horizon..therefore, gold will shine again..buy it now. buy it tomorrow, buy it on the way down. buy it on the way up. when the next crisis hits, the dollar may rally, but inevitiably, when the people realize their currency is doomed, there will be a panic into gold(physical), to ensure wealth preservation. BUY GOLD.
GOLD STOCKS LOOK LIKE THE BEST INVESTMENT RIGHT NOW.SILVER
SECOND.I HAVE ABOUT 60% INVESTED IN A GOLD STOCK.THE REST IS MOSTLY
AN OIL STOCK.I WAS 50/50 IN BOTH UNTIL MY GOLD STOCK SPIKED THIS
WEEK.
On the bond question from yesterday… I have not invested in tresuries of any kind because of the lousy return and interest rate risk. I have been buying corporates and muni’s in the secondary market with about 1/2 BBB or better and the other half one or two steps below those ratings with companies that probably will be re-rated higher. None of them are longer than 48-months and all are laddered across that time frame. Numerous different industries are included for sector diversification. The average YTM across the whole portfolio is right at 7.5% including both the coupon and capital gain from buying them less than par. Have been in since early 2009 and am very happy with the results so far!
Martin: I like commodities in general. Specifically, I like gold & silver, natural resources and oil. For both precious metals and oil, not to be in them is counter intuitive: there ain’t gonna be more oil globally and the demand is only gonna get greater; gold & silver as a longer term investment plays well versus the US dollar, which, though rising right now portends a much bleaker future(inflation!)…also, there is a broadening trend to use gold and other prec. metals as a backstop for weaker global monetary policies (security).
Have converted most of my portfolio to income oriented investments. Also have positioned about 1/3 into foreign ETFs Brazil, China, South Korea, Indonesia and generic Emerging Markets in that sequence of % invested (most to least) Canadian Trusts/MLPs have been very good as well. Have invested more than I ever thought I would into Municipals and High Yield Bonds both of which went up significantly in last 12 months. Also bought some commodity structured products.
Obama and our Washington self serving Congress (both or all 3 parties) have me scared to ……… I know I should be in rare earths and precious metals but haven’t yet. Lack of income and so many contradictory strong beliefs have me confused.
Hmm Gold BUGS are everywhere even Bill Gross in Barrons this morning.. I hold none, unless my funds hold gold shares or bullion ( the Morningstar Other Catagorey). Buying Gold or Comodities assumes rapid global growth, huge industrial demand, maximum employment and almost hyperinflation potential! Yellow stuff everobody wants you to buy it hmmmm. I am a Contrarian so Gold is sucker play to me.
Globally the US Japan and UK have borrowed far to much.
So do you think its cheaper to hang low rates and grow out economically over time?
OR
Hope to create hyperinflation and bubble out quickly again?
Frazier
Writer and Financial Advisor
Pittsburgh PA
Since 1977
Yes, it’s a good time for the metals. But in addition to investing, have some physical gold & silver in case of bank closures or hyperinflation. Have some junk silver and some smaller gold coins – 1/2 or 1/4 size; if you want a loaf of bread, no one will be able to make change for a krugerrand or the like.
Hi Martin
As well I cannot believe that gold will drop much further . My slant is basically in the direction of conspiracy . What I have noticed is that in the last while a lot of juniors in the resource sector have been been raising cash through private placements etc . Where is all that money coming from . I believe that basically what happens is that the powers that be have bought shares in these companies with the express purpose of selling them at a profit to Joe blow public . In order for this to happen they will let the price of gold rise to the next level , probably around $1500 , which will lift all juniors, giving the powers that be whoever they are the chance to unload . The trick is to unload when they do and wait for another buying opportunity when gold corrects . When will all this play out ? I believe between now and about april 15th 2010 . In other words sell into the strength starting about march 15th , slowly at first and plan to be out of the market by april 15th . You know the old saying , Go away in may . Well to be safe I say go away in april . I may leave some money on the table but at least I am not trying to sell when everyone else is . Generally the time to buy back in is around chritmas time
I believe gold will increase over the next couple of years with all of the money printing that has happened and the inflation that is sure to come. Having gold in a portfolio at about 5% should certainly help stabilize a portfolio. Currency exchanges have too much to do with people and governments which should also allow gold to be a good hedge in a portfolio.
I’m way past retirement but still have consultant income. The bulk of my monetary assets are with a broker and are conservative investments. I have several jumbo CD’s that will mature in a few days. The bank they are in is now only paying less than 2% for one year or less CD’s. Any suggestions where I can put the funds that is above average in safety and that wil pay better than the CD’s?
I have some canadian energy trusts, MLP’s, and dividend paying stocks. The current idiots in congress and the president now cause me to question the safety of US savings bonds. Therefore I will be cashing my bonds and rolling my IRA into Gold and Silver coins. The ponzi schems of our goverment cannot go much further! No gov’t official can reverse the direction we heading nor do they have the will.
Am and will be buying physical Gold, Silver, Copper, Indium etc…
I used to work in and for a couple of financial companies and for years thought that this was a good thing.
However a couple of years ago I started to see to corruption, the poor trades and the overriding efforts the people I worked with to take what they could. They gave out poor advice and never thought twice.
The paper holding world is corrupt, I am sorry for the small part I played in it.
Going to hold enough cash to keep the bills paid, but for holding and storing wealth then only a hard commodity will do.
For many years I have had precious metals in my portfolio and they have appreciated in value more than anything else. In uncertain times for investors like these I’m buying more and more just gold, silver and palladium.
Albert
I thought gold and silver was the way to invest. But it seams that these investments go in price as the general markets go. In the long run these may be the best route to take because I think the greenback is on the decline and it will probably cost more to purchase them latter. But what do I know anymore. All I know is that gold and silver is on the decline now.
in the last 18 months ive loaded up quite a bit on gold and silver mainly as a knee jerk reaction the the crash ,but now im thinking maybe its just another scam by the elite they know every one will flock to these metals during the crisis ,then they will crash it when they feel the time is right ,everyone will panic and sell for what ever they can ,and once more they will be on the sidelines ready to swoop everything up when it hits bottom ,wiping out what little these folks have left ?
I’ve been invested in Closed End Funds for most of last year to the present. Have appreciated in value and provided a good dividend income. Also invest in preferred
stock and corporate bonds.
Dottie and I are coming down for the Money Show. I listened to the Weiss Capital conference call earlier this week. If I bring my portfolio info to the Money Show, would it be possible to go over it with one of your folks? Look forward to seeing the show. Ian
In 2008, every category declined in October and November. The decline continued in early 2009. Just about every category has declined in 2010. Does anyone else think we are about to repeat the decline of 2008?
I suspect the Fight between Inflation/Deflation will take up much of this year pricing in the Metal markets as see both side having valet positions,but tend to side with the REAL INFLATION expects like John Williams and Mr Weiss.I believe there is great value in both mid-to upper scale metals producing stocks like HL/CDE/GG/SLW/NEM and ETF’s like GLD,GDX and SLV going forward that are now 30%,40% to 50% off their JULY 08 high before the deep drop from latter part of JULY to Oct 08.
I believe the above stocks along with the hard stuff from friday Jan 26,2010 closing numbers gain 25-35% in hard issues like GLD/SLV to 45 to 55% in the Metal producing Stocks before 2010 ends!
Ihave recently bought some gold bullion coins and silver bullion bars. I believe that the tremendous amount of debt this country has will in the not to distant future lead to hyper inflation a-la Carter years. One can already see this beginning when you compare the value of the dollar to the Euro over the past five years.
We are in uncharted financial territory. Happily, I bought physical gold and silver back in 2002 and I have been smiling like a Cheshire cat. Going forward, diversification is key. I prefer to invest in Asia, in particular, in Indian and Chinese ETFs and I like to buy gold and silver ETFs on major dips. In the past, the Templeton Global Bond fund has served me well as I have currency diversification and a monthly dividend. I like to invest in areas where there is an educated, growing population, so I like demographic trends. As a Floridan accustomed to hurricanes, I recommend to all to keep cash in a diversion safe at home. It is easier to tap my cash stash at home rather than running to the bank and incurring possible fees. My sock drawer is safer than my bank. Keep cash, some extra food, silver & gold at home, aviod debt and practice financial privacy as best as possible. I tell my friends to think like a pirate who stashes bits of wealth in different locations. Also, it’s just money … love your friends and your family above all – keep perspective.
who knows? I would say the plethora of advertisements for “just folks” to buy gold mitigates against it. However, we have seen -reportedly-some modest Central Bank purchases of gold which by itself is interesting.
Silver is probably cheaper on a relative basis.
It seems to me that a preponderance of the arguments made to support the continued attractiveness of precious metals- are just too obvious and therefore probably not very profitable. But hey! That’s just my opinion.
Too many posts before my arrival. What are your thoughts on retaining blue chip stocks and mutual funds (received testamentarily at very low basis) – i.e, G.E.? Several beneficiaries involved.
We have no established means of trading. Tax reporting ramifications would be a nightmare.
B.T.
BTW – Am well informed as re. Rockefeller’s and the CFR agenda to undermine the US dollar towards initiating their “NEW WORLD ORDER”.
Gee, it’s great to be old and still have some memory. I was working in Mexico, in the oilfields actually, back in the early 80s. Gold was still on the way up, actually reached the $900s or so. A lot of the same hype that we’re hearing now. Well, it went back down to something like the $250 before starting its ascent to today’s levels. All I can say, is “don’t bet the farm.”
I have a relatively small position in silver approximately 5% of portfolio and approximately 1% in gold. This is all in US coins, silver dollars and 20$ gold pieces. I plan on adding silver dollars if spot goes below $16. Mining stocks make up another 5% of portfolio and I trade (try) these with the market. I sold some the fisrt of last week (not the high but not the low) and will purchase additional once the dollar begin to fall.
Martin and Weiss Research Team,
Thank you for the honest, straightforward recommendations, and the way changes in the markets are explained. It is good to know that the fed is closing currency swap from overseas, as explained by Bryan Rich. I agree that the move will impact gold and the strength of the dollar, I wish I knew how much and how long. Larry Edelson’s recommendations on timing gold will hopefully help me to not be so impatient. After reading your answers to bloggs, I am even more skittish about exit strategies and general buy and hold professional advise. Thank you again and again!!! In regards to gold, I personally think all things in moderation, if gold is needed in the portfolio I think this downturn, or maybe a downturn around mid summer might be a good time to enter or purchase additional gold/silver. However, I would hate to get into a serious downturn in gold when the fed starts to seriously raise rates, or if we have a full blown depression. Gold and silver cannot be eaten. Every family/person should stock up on materials to use in case of a depression or emergency, focusing on items that have a long shelf life and are used regularly. Don’t forget the water for emergencies and a bug-out-bag. Rotate stored items. Gold and silver is secondary. I am realizing that no matter how hard we try to prepare for the future, it is all a gamble. All we can really be sure of is the roof over our heads and the food we have to eat today. Keep up the hard work, it is appreciated. Connie
That’s a question that I was asking myself. I currently have about 10% of my portfolio in Gold, Silver and some miners (SLW,AUY,ABX).
Things I am considering:
1) With the state of Europe (PIIGS) currently, the $ seems to have some more room to run – probably will have an adverse short term affect on Precious Metals – do I wait
2) I have no bullion – should I
3) With the new ETFs there is an easy way to pseudo own Platinum & Palladium – should I move some money there
4) Should I own some TIPS
5) Is it time to jump into TBT
Some of my concerns:
1) It will be hard for inflation to kick in while unempoyment and underemployment are so high.
2) It will also be hard for the economy that is still consumer driven to grow and therefore stocks to grow with the same unemployment considerations
3) Delaying moves too much until inflation is evident and the $ does start its march downward could be too late.
4) Low interest rates aren’t really helping anyone except maybe the banks but they aren’t lending – they are making money by leveraging into higher risk investments. Will the new laws pass? Will policy makers try other ways – higher interest rates to curb this?
I currently have a good portion of my Portfolio in short term bond funds (with little yield). My current plan calls for taking some of that money and adding it to a 5% reduction I am going to take in equities and buy the inverse QQQQ, buy the inverse financials, buy TBT and take a small position in TIPS. I think I will wait on Palladium and other precious metals until the Euro/$ story becomes more clear to me.
Its fine to say buy gold/buy silver, but no one has explained to my satisfaction how to sell gold and silver (bullion or coins) without taking a beating. The people who sold you that gold and that silver at a premium price want to pay you far less than meltdown when you want to sell.
Hello Martin,
I am not buying any more gold right now, as it seems a questionable holding. Why? If the stock market tanks, if treasuries droop, if foreign markets and currencies quiver, Americans, primed by so many “expert analysts,” will run for gold. Perhaps that could happen.
Now imagine millions of persons buying gold for $1200/oz. and holding it in hopes of a big rise. Say that rise happens, and it hits $3000/oz. Assume by that time that the dollar has tanked. Now, with all that gold in hand, will anyone sell it off at $3000 or hold in hopes of it hitting $5000?
Would anyone buy at $3000? Perhaps, if they believe it will hit $5000. Now, you have millions of Americans who have bought gold paying $1200-$3000/oz. What then? Can they use it to by groceries, pay their mortgage, go out to dinner, buy a car? Sure, if there is someone that will buy it from them. Now what wil they get for that gold? US DOLLARS OF COURSE!!!!
Say they get 3000 US dollars for trading in one oz. of gold. They go use it to buy some new furniture, and the next day gold hits $3,100 per oz. Did they make a wise choice in selling one oz. of gold? Did they get a good deal on the furniture? Did they make a stupid mistake? Is gold any good when the dollar keeps dropping and you get dollars for the gold you sell? The very dollars you get could drop the next day in value.
So many valid questions remain unanswered by the gold pushers. It is a FACT that the government can seize gold if it so chooses. It can discontinue any paper money if it so chooses. It can devalue the currency if it so chooses.
There is NO real security in material holdings of any type, and if one believes there is, he or she is living in illusion.
Considering the recent price action between gold and silver and the dollar, the time may be right to buy gold and silver. I prefer silver and also really like FCX.
I am concerned about the portfolio balance right. I am moving an increasing percentage of my protfolio into oil, gas, gold and silver. The oil and gas investments are stocks through trusts and MLP’s that pay good dividends. The gold and silver investments are through physical purchases, ETF’s, and foreigh and domestic stocks. Further, I have also invested in some currency plays to protect against the dollar weakness. I remain heavy in short term treasuries (60%),gold and silver (20%) Oil and Gas (10%) and the remainder in some large cap stocks.
I am convinced that a surge in inflation is around the corner and another debt crisis is a high probably.
Currently I’m looking to go long in SLV, GLD, and EGO. I believe all are on the way down in the short term (5%-12%). I plan to wait until the technical indicators I use to signal a more timely entry. SLV closed at $15.90, Gld at $105.96, and EGO at $11.78 on 1/29/10.
While I think there should always be a place for precious metals in any balanced portfolio, up to say 25% in the present climate, the timing of the purchase is critical. Gold always has been a cyclical market and the old adage of “Buy in July-August and sell in Feb-March” is still holding true in my currency (Aussie Dollars) if not os much in $US.
The charts tell me to wait and watch on gold and silver. The dollar has made a significant break above resistance. If we are appraoching another major leg down in the market, the world will still run to the dollar and to Treasuries making commodities (with ample supply) more risky and shorting Treasuries risky. I prefer silver to gold because there is more of an industrial use but have been buying both. Gold seems to me to be more subject to manipulations by world governments and central banks. Have reduced gold and silver holdings to about 4% of my portfolio and will watch the charts for a buy (or further sell) signal. I watch charts to detect stock/market direction and before I act on recommendations, the charts have to give me a go signal. With most recommendations, you can find as many that say buy as sell so I let the charts confirm what to do. When I vary from this, I ususally lose. Right now I believe we are due for a bounce off this correction before the next leg down that may retest the March 2009 lows. Taking everything into consideration, I just don’t see the ingredients for a sustainable recovery without a further wash out of the still unresolved problems.
Gold is going into the shithouse contrary to all those idiots who predicted 2- 5 k an ounce. Take a look at the decline in gold stocks over the last month and you’d be better off with GM.
JK
First, while oil is up and down, renewable energy and related sectors are on the rise. So think of this industry like oil in 1890 or Microsoft/Intel in 1985 – set for massive growth. That said, you need to know the technology before putting capital into either sectors or firms. I’m biased – I run a wind farm company and a firm breeding a banking chain investing in wind farms – and I know the technology in each area of renewables – but just the same, if you can get a 20% – 50% return from a facility where 80% of the job cost loan is guaranteed by the Fed, life could be worse – much worse in nearly any other type of investment.
As for metals – absolutely – whether its copper, silver, gold, platinum, industrial or precious metals – all mined resources – even lithium salts – are going to get squeezed by skyrocketing populations, global shifts in capital, industrial demand and expansion of new middle class sectors, like China’s current boom. My personal and corporate philosophy at GPP is to keep all liquid assets (cash) as metals – period – save 1 month of expenses (personal) and a quarter of expenses (corporate) in cash. The rest is gold, silver or copper – a great metal to own if you are doing energy projects for obvious reasons.
This current trend which started in about Nov. 2008 appears to be making a normal correction in an ongoing uptrend and is in stage three of a five stage correction. My next buy point is about 1000 which will be about 1/3 then the next 970-980. Vigilence as always is the by word as the marker could turn. If you don’t own gold, now is a good time to start. Personally I prefer silver.
Appx. 15% in gold and 25% in silver. If it hasn’t been said in the previous 170 or so comments, it doesn’t need to be said.
In answer to your query re “Gold”…my total Roth Ira in Vanguard Precius Metals fund..
probably not good but I am 78 and just do not have a lot of energy to move things around…But very much enjoy and learn from your websites… Keep up the good work and thank you so much for your info…………….dixon
As a “Senior” senior citizen I have considered it a privilege to have the opportunity to observe the many thoughts and experiences of various persons with varied backgrounds and then have Martin add comments with wisdom. I hope I can steer some of my own offspring into investing early in life, while staying around a little longer to enjoy it myself.
Thank you Martin.
Herb
Martin
I have read quite a few of the comments left on your blog and I must confess that I am like many of them. I refuse to invest in anything that this Country or any other has to offer other than gold and silver. I know when the bread lines start in the not so ditant future that I will be able to cash in my metals for the survival of my family.
It scares me to no end that the average people I talk to have no idea that the economic health is on real life support. They seem to think that we live in a golden Nation which will forever be the standard for all other Nations to look up to. They tend to believe that everything will be alright in a few months. I have news for them all in that this mess is only begining and God help us all when the real crisis hits and there is no more life support from a faultering Government.
We all need to do what we can now in order to survive in the future.
I think the time is NOT to invest at all except in Gold. I don’t think we have seen the worst of the problems yet. Maybe other small investments could be made in Electrical and Gas portfolios, but coal seems to be a no no because of all this talk about “global warming” or is that “carbon emissions”…The ideal place to invest will be in the companies where all the “in crowd” have their money who are pushing this “global” stuff and nonsense…If they manage to get it passed through governments…and I pray God that they don’t. If they do, I wonder if any of us will be able to afford just one share? Does Al Gore make submissions here?? lol lol
The price of precious metals appear to be cycling down for the intermediate term which I think should provide a good buying opportunity in a couple, few months. Those that drove the price up in 2009 speculating and worried of value of US dollar are rotating out. That is likely to continue for a bit. Fundamental reason for buying and hold gold is solid – I’m holding off now, but will continue dollar cost average purchases starting in perhaps a month or so… I expect gold to fall back to $1,000/ oz… maybe just a bit lower. I own gold in mulitple forms… bullion coins, graded collectible coins, even a few ancient gold coins as well as GLD and a few miners… also have a bit of SLV and PPLT. Thinking of buying more SLV sooner than more gold. Anyone know of a way to buy Rhodium besides the overpriced coins make by Cohen mint?
Inflation or deflation?? Peace or war?? Health or disease?? Good weather or bad?? True markets or manipulation?? Yes there is much to be considered when building investment portfolios and balancing various risks and opportunities. Does one do so with the idea that the entire world will be somewhat static with markets running the historic status quo or does one try to envision and anticipate realistic futuristic experiences both good and bad, somewhat different perhaps of what we are accustomed to?
Bearing this in mind, most of us try to seek investments with the least downside risk while also having upside potential. Except for specific niches, knowing that the basic markets we all have previously moved in and out of are no longer national but are truly worldwide in scope, behooves each of us to begin to think global. The fact that many here have indicated strong interest in metals and resources investments along with offsetting puts to balance longs etc. makes for sound and mature investment advice. Whether one invests in gold or iron, rhodium or copper, iridium or nickel, oil or natural gas, or the innumerable other possibilities, a diversified approach does indeed add to the balance mix, while at the same time retaining comfortable liquidity.
With regards to metals, the following comes to mind as exuded by many years of observing and partaking of the surprisingly sharp ups and downs:
1) Silver? — No longer just a semi-precious metal, but an industrial consumable. Difficult to recycle very much of that which is used. Numerous uses being discovered daily such as nano-tech etc. Will find much demand in medical apps as it is learned that it will cure numerous diseases including both bacterial and viruses, (silver is now showing up in pillows but will soon be in paints and all sorts of things to ward off various disease and illness) and as a water purifier for the 2 billion people without fresh water. Electronics and other current usage will continue to expand with the exception of photography and perhaps dental. Mine-able amounts in purist form are largely in the earth’s crust and will be completely exhausted within the next generation or two. Load up the truck for long term hold (15 years plus) and then forget about it until it’s value exceeds it’s more abundant cousin: gold.
Silver is the ultimate poor man’s gold, but because it is so cheap it presently requires larger areas for secure storage. Ultra wealthy investors such as Buffet are long sizable amounts with the metal in possession and an entry level of around $5 per ounce (if memory serves me, he bought around $1 Billion worth around 1998 and took possession) Gates, Soros and others also hold silver positions. Silver (AG) boasts superior economic price elasticity since very tiny amounts are normally required per application. Silver will continue to be used and used up, even if and when the price explodes as it’s ultimate application will only increase by relatively small amounts or even a few cents. The low cost of entry for nearly anyone wanting to invest means that all should seriously consider it, be they peasant, student or accomplished.
Stockpiles of AG are nearly all exhausted and newly mined amounts are being consumed annually at approximately one billion ounces even in the present great recession. Huge discoveries will yet be found and mined but not at the suspected pace of even higher present and future demand. Even the great wall discovery in China of some 30 to 35 billion ounces will eventually be eclipsed by new and as yet unknown technological advances requiring silver’s usage.
Downside for silver is that there has been a history of serious fiat market manipulation for the past 30 years artificially keeping its price in fiat currency very low in order to please a few large consumers, though this may be reaching its end. Paper selling practically more product than is in existence in order to short the value lower and scare off longs and then buy it back at lower prices that the conniving few have created is the epitome of corruption. Look for a few more manipulative pushes before this process becomes obsolete since the bankster parties and exchanges involved will become increasingly leery about being identified, magnified and called on the carpet for their collective and collusive corrupt actions — they may have to shell out steep fines to help pay for our out of control government.
2) Palladium? — Demand will pick up as more and more astute investors realize that it (and small amounts of Rhodium) will eventually replace platinum in catalytic converters. This will work until cars are converted to other forms of energy. Reference 2009 annual report of STILLWATER MNG CO (SWC) . Look for an increasing decrease of conventional propulsion transportation, as little by little vehicles will be replaced with more carbon-neutral hybrid, electric, hydrogen, and even cold fusion power.
Cold fusion (its like having windmill power without the wind or the windmill) has existed for years and the “paralysis of analysis” process is about to come to an end with the realization that it works and we can actually use it even if we really don’t fully understand why or how it works. Cold fusion is insanely cheap and will even begin to replace other forms of energy demand from homes to manufacturing, from rails to ships, planes to spacecraft, etc. The cost to switch is in the original setup and conversion of some sixty thousand manufacturing processes — after that it is basically free except for regular monitoring checkups and minor maintenance. Side costs include the dismantling and shutdowns of present sources such as nuclear reactors and what to do with the nasty 500 year half-life wastes they have created that are sloppily stored here on earth. Take them to the moon?? Sorry uranium investors, but not my favorite energy source except as a stop-gap that has now run its course if we are smart.
Gold? — The real money of the world though it is largely recycled and stored rather than consumed; Nearly all of the gold ever mined is still around (about a 60 foot cube) and currently is better for storing larger values of investment in smaller areas. Soros recently called it a bubble opportunity (many think his comments are meant to lower present cost entry for his own agenda?) and yes its value goes up and down, but statically speaking, an ounce is an ounce today as it was 5000 years ago. The only way to increase its quantity is through back breaking expensive activity that takes much time. The scariest bubble remaining is also the only one we have not really heard about as a bubble per se, and that is worldwide fiat currencies. Reminds me of my one million trading cards which now are good for starting fires if you have them in large enough bricks.
Gold values (and other real things, metals and natural resources) are not manipulated, only the paper fiat with which one compares it with are manipulated. Read that last sentence again, and again, until it sinks in. When one begins to think of gold as real money and a true store of value, they start to ask how much can they buy with one ounce as opposed to how many highly manipulated fiat dollars it costs to buy one.
Platinum? — To me a rich man’s game and somewhat speculative; consider buying if it’s price is commensurate with gold or maybe slightly higher (no more than 5-10 percent) due to scarcity but do not buy solely based on its use in automotive catalytic converters as that is being slowly replaced with its less expensive cousin palladium which should end up valued at around half of the gold price until cars no longer require them.
Other technological applications are bound to crop up for these and other precious, strategic, and rare earth elements so individually or even as a group they make good sense. As an investment portfolio, I would currently suggest from 10 to 50 percent of ones available funds depending upon the total amount one has to invest. Obviously, if one has less than one million fiat, you would be closer to the 50 percent, whereas if one is extremely wealthy then the percent decreases closer to the 10 percent. That being said, future events can and do play an important part in entry and exit strategies and can change in an instant depending upon natural and man-made catastrophes.
If we somehow slip into a greater deflationary depression, then one needs to be liquid enough to weather the storm. With the past year’s $1.4 US trillion deficit and the 2010 projected $1.6 US trillion deficit, one would imagine that fiat will only be devaluing both here and around the globe. The growing demand for gold, silver, and other natural resources can better be attributed to a global collective perception of the pending fiat currency crises than to expected future inflation, although the two do go hand in hand. If one watched the State of The Union address, the scary part is that one gets the scary feeling that we are a giant ship with no rudders, afloat between the shores of some rocks and hard spots. It sounded like less than 3 percent substance and the rest hopeful rhetoric and not even a basic understanding of Econ 101. Why gold didn’t spike yet is beyond me, but these doldrums won’t last forever so position yourself before it is too late.
The concept of sector by sector analysis as suggested by Weiss affiliate analyst Larry Edelson makes much more sense since some things will experience deflation while others will experience inflation or even stagflation. It all hints that a gathering initiative might be being developed through the IMF, World Bank, etc., to establish a one world currency which would re/de-value other fiats and become the reserve currency. When that happens within the next 3-5 years after the fit really hits the shan, one might conceivably be better off if they have investments in real things to offset any transitional forced exchange losses that will be generated to bail out our collective fiat hailing governments including the US. Someone also suggested a possible cotton run since with the increased money creation the government would need more cotton paper to print on, but my guess is that much of the money creation will be electronic and likely not even reach the masses that it was intended for, but time will tell.
Martin,
I believe buying silver will be a better investment in the long run.
Martin,
I believe buying silver will be more beneficial in the long run.
I’m invested in 13 acres of land , with water, woods and a large garden that I’m growing food on. I built a passive solar heated energy efficient small home there. I have over half of my money in physical gold and silver, 7 small speculative gold and silver stocks, some cash and a small trading account. I plan on buying some put options on several companies, expiring around April of this year. I’m short the s and p and qqqq by way of sds and qid. I’m planning to buy some epv after the euro has a short bounce. After the next big market sell off, I’m figuring sometime in April it will be over, I’ll load up on gold and silver and hold them at least for a few months. I’m small time so I can’t afford to be wrong too ofter.
Mr. Weiss,
In the short term Gold and Silver are likely to decline another 10 to 20 percent. In part this decline is correlated with the increase in the dollor as identified by Bryan Rich. This decline will also in part be due to deflationary forces, a decrease in stock prices and a decrease in liquidity.
For Gold to increase above $1,100 would require a significant event such as a crisis in a major currency. In summary there is more risk to the down side than the upside for Gold and Silver.
Thanks,
J.S.
in australia the goverment is actually raising interest rates. it is now possible to obtain a rate in excess of 7% per annum by one of our aa+ rated banks.
.
Hi Martin,
After reading all the posts I have to say everyone makes a certain amount of sense. I would go in 10% junk silver and 10% gold miner etfs. The rest would be liquid while I research. I like basic cash cow rental properties if I don’t have to make a full time job out of it.
I would like to ask Andrew Hunter where he got his crystal ball. His stab into the future was intriguing. One thing is for sure. We have to redefine the meaning of the words… profit……. and …..value. I feel that the way out is by going with upstart technologies intent on creating new wealth into the future. I want to be an investor not a trash picker.
Dr Weiss: I have especially liked reading “your comments” on these discussions. I bought 5% gold on your first recommendation last summer and have one position in SLV. Time to load up? not for me it isn’t. I have foreign investments recommended by Tony Sagami and some natural resource holdings that have done well but as soon as they begin to fall, i will put more and more of my investment into cash via us treasury bills. I want to make money but more than that i don’t want to lose any more money in the market ! Thank you and your collegues for being so unselfish in spreading your expertise. I wish you could take my money and invest it for me…….that would be the “perfect portfolio” !
Yes, I do think it is time to load up on gold and silver! I have 60% in now and continue to add more as new savings are accumulated. The US is not far behind Japan’s “debt trap”, meaning treasuries and annuities are a sure loss going forward into the future. I’m even thinking to 72T as much as I can and as soon as I can out of my IRA and get it to the safety of gold, because I’m afraid the government will soon make conversion of IRA/401K funds to annuities mandatory, and then will come the means testing of SS benefits.
Gold will win in the end, but we’ll experience a hair-raising ride before we get there.
L. H.
My first entry:
All my life I have wanted cash in the bank. Now I believe i need some investment education because I don’t feel safe with cash in the bank. The bank can only give you back what you have given it:
(cash) but my fear is that it will be watered down before the Fed is through. I am thinking gold bullion because of my understanding that the only advantage that coins have over bulion is liquity and taxes. well the liquidity bit is interesting but I would be paying the difference between coin and bullion for that liquidity. Of coarse the tax saving would be good but I can only save on taxes when I have made some money. So I may go for bullion until some things level out a bit and I have some money to save taxes on.
Martin,
One post caught my eye on yesterday’s blog. The author was a currency trader who attributed the recent rally in the U.S. Dollar to the settlement of Dollar denominated contracts. He said that these settlements would continue for some time and that this would boost the value of the Dollar and depress the value of gold an silver during this period. Do you agree with this persons views?
WJW
Long term, I have more confidence in gold than in the dollar. Long term fundamentals are against the dollar. But right now is NOT the time to be buying gold and silver. The FED has been contracting the money supply since December. Simply look at the St. Louis Fed charts for M1. The M1 money multiplier is extremely low because banks aren’t lending. In addition, China is pulling back on its money supply by raising reserve requirements for banks. These actions mean only ONE thing for silver and gold short term: a bear market. I expect gold to fall to $900 to $950. Silver will fall even more, since central banks don’t buy silver. I sold all of my positions in GLD before the major fall last week and I shorted gold and silver. Psychology will take over. All of the people who rushed towards gold and silver will be taken by surprise and sell, sell, sell. The price may plummet quickly. Then, I will sell my short positions and buy, buy, buy.
I already own a small amount of gold and silver, and was just getting ready to stock up on some more. But I am dismayed…
Recent news of the “Fake Gold Bullion” in both the UK and at Fort Knox in the US have left me concerned. There also appears to be evidence that the gold bars were fabricated in the US!
So, I honestly do not know if this controversy will force down the price of gold – perhaps dramatically
yes I do think it is time. Normally 10% is the most I would consider but short medium term I am going for 20% in a precoius metals fund so I’ll leave it to the pro to decide the mix between gold silver and platinum
Silver is our choice, we plan to continue asa much as possible.
I believe that rental incomes will provide better protection against inflation than precious metals. We should expect that the residential housing market reaches bottom in 2010. Holding gold or silver won’t provide us any regular incomes until we sell our holding. Owning rental properties provides us regular monthly incomes and protects us from inflation.
I have little cash and little retirement money. I have to withdraw this year from my small IRA when 701/2 in November. Still have a mortgage and credit card bills. Work part time 12hour shifts infrequently when called. What plan can I do now?
Since gold is the de facto reserve currency at the moment, I think we should have a reasonable amount in our portfolios. However, I believe that another reserve currency could emerge and knock gold off its pedestal. I think that investing in life and death natural resources such as food, water and energy will be a much more lucrative strategy for the future.
I dont think precious metal is a great investment for 2010.
The prices of any asset (stocks, commodities etc) which has a derivative market is going to come under pressure for margins when the USD strengthens. The prices of all the assets are not decided only by their physical demand and suppliy but to a greater extent by the speculative positions in them through the futures, options and swaps by the large financial institutions.
I think the best investment for 2010 is going to be the USD as the world realises that there is no economic recovery (despite the continous extension of stimulus) and the currencies other than USD, the Euro, the UK Pound are much worse investment than the USD.
Moreover countries and companies defaulting on their debts (which they would not be able to roll over or be able to roll over at very high interest rates) will be the prime theme for this year. The fall in various markets this year could be much severe than in 2008 due to the limited ability of govts. to arrange for large bailouts due to their already detoriated fiscal positions and public backlash.
Hello Martin
Back in 2007 I decided to exit everything dollar related and move into hard assets. I cashed in ALL treasuries/cd’s and purchased Physical Metals with a 2:1 ratio gold to silver. In 2009 I started unloading equities and purchased a farm, tractor with all the implements and have been quite busy stocking the farm and my home with food and everyday items. I have even been going to the dollar store buying soap, shampoo, razors and just the everyday basic necessaries. I have also acquired a nice stash of guns and ammo.
I know I may sound somewhat extreme but todays numbers just do not add up. I feel this Country along with the rest of the world with the exception of the BRIC countries are already bankrupt. There are some 600 Trillion worth of derivatives that have not worked through the system and the US is close to 100 Trillion of unfunded entitlements. And if you add the National debt which just had the limit raised to 14+ Trillion we are looking at checkmate with no way out in my opinion. Since the turn of the new year I have started cashing in my IRA’s and 401k’s I feel a need to get what I can while I can. The fortune 500 companies only show a profit of 300 Billion and the contributions of all the 401k’s amount to 500 Billion which is very minute compared to the debt. On Bloomberg tonight I heard that Obama will make a special Jobs to rebuild America bond offering permanent from temporary. I never even heard of the temporary to begin with. But what I am reading from this announcement is that this will be the start on where the Government will be taking everyones tax deferred IRA’s and making it mandatory to purchase treasuries in the very near future with some sort of chaotic event to implement the seizure. The QE can only go on for so long while the rest of the world has been not purchasing our treasuries as of late for someone will need to pick up the slack and soon. My only question is when it all implodes, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year? With each passing day I keep feeling we are on borrowed time. I personally hope it holds off until March for I promised my wife a cruise for Valentines Day that I am not able to get out of without making her upset. My wife does think I am extreme and thinks the total opposite of how I believe but is able to accept my way of thinking for I have been able to do quite well financially over the past several years with our investments and be debt free.
Dear Dr. Weiss: I am about to establish a gold I.R.A. I have been buying shares of GLD since 2006 in my regular I.R.A. Now I would llike to take the profit I have in the GLD shares and invest part of it in gold, platinum or silver American EAgles of different denomination. In order to do this I need to find a very reputable depositor to hold the coins for me as I cannot take possession of them until I take them out of my gold I.R.A.
I know you don’t give specific advice to individual investors about their portfolios, but I would appreciate it if you could give me some information about reliable depositors for gold, silver and platinum coins.
I also want to call your attention to a recent S.E.C ruling which would prohibit investors
from withdrawing funds from money market accounts in the event of another meltdown resulting in a situation where the funds “break the buck” I refer you to S.E.C. Rule 2a-7 and Rule 22c-3 (a) on pps. 28-30 of the recent SEC ruling on this subject. This is a 55 page report which you can access on the SEC website. Please let me know if you are as disturbed by this ruling as I am since I have most of my cash from dividents and interest in a very low yielding Money Market Account within my I. R. A. I also have a small amount of cash in a non-I.R.A. account that is held in a money market account. I use this cash to live on and I would hate to think I would not be able to access it if I need it.
Thanks for your help. I look forward to hearing back from you as I hope to act soon.
I think gold and other precious metals are a hedge against the unknown. Maybe we’ll lose a little from time to time as the dollar gains or the world stage looks better. But, over time, a 5-10% investment of your portfolio in gold, especially, can only be seen as reasonable assurance to give you the security of knowing that if the worst happens, you’ll have a head start.
I like silver at the moment, but I am concerned about the obvious manipulation of the silver market by the major bullion banks ie…JP Morgan. What they have been doing is nothing short of criminal. Actually, it is criminal and they are not being punished. Hopefully the CFTC will implement stricter position limits after their March meeting which is set to discuss this issue. If they do the right thing, I believe silver has a long way up to go. But until then, the Bullion Banks will continue playing havoc with the market on a daily basis surpressing the price while they cover their grossly huge and illegal short positions.
Silver should be trading in the $30’s per ounce right now on its way to $50 or $60.
I have small investments in GLD and SLV. I would not “load up” on any one asset especially ones which only produce upside from appreciation and not income.
The dollar appears to be positioned to make a temporary rebound in the coming months which usually means a drop in the price of precious metals. The rebound is not because of strength of the dollar, but the dollar is in the less ugly than some of the other major currency category. It us undervalued against the Euro. However, because of the new dollars being injected into the money supply, I see the price of precious metals moving sideways in the next six months rather than down. As a protection against my metals positions, I am taking a counter position with an ETF – US Dollar Index Bullish Fund. I believe there is another future leg up in metals if and when inflation sets in.
Dear Dr. Weiss;
I can’t thank You enough for sharing Your wisdom with all of us. Your guidance is GREATLY appreciated indeed.
As for the wealth preservation I would suggest precious metals, as for investment SILVER.
Silver will be depleted soon. We can live without gold, we can’t without silver. This white metal will give us, in my humble opinion, a great return but we have to own in its physical form and CONTROL it. No ETFs, no third party holding.
I am buying ETFs in precious metal mining companies , with heavier emphasis in gold.
I have scaled back on gold for now but still hold 10%
Precious Metals – Yes
Gold – 65%
Silver – 35%
The value of anything is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. There is not enough gold to replace the current monetary system. If Gold as with anything else becomes to expensive to be of a value, then it becomes worth less. The most valued way for most to play would be silver. If want metals at all.
I believe that it IS time to load up on gold and silver – only in the physical form, since it has NO counter-party risk. That includes the ETF’s, which may not be safe. I have never stopped accumulating silver and gold.
I believe that due to the gold/silver ratio historically (normally around 15 to 1) being high currently (at around 67 to 1) Silver is a better buy than gold. In the future, if you buy silver now, you would only have to pay 15 oz of silver for 1 oz. of gold, whereas now this will cost you 67 oz of silver for one oz of gold.
if i were to invest in some precious metal, what do i invest in? coins, mining companies, etfs, stocks, mutuals, bullion? i’m confused to which is best.
I believe that we are experiencing a short term drop in gold, silver and other commodities as the dollar rallies for a short period due to credit tightening in China and uncertainty in Europe that is hurting the Euro. This will be a good time to buy precious metals (and their ETFs), gold mining stocks, (and gold mining ETFs) while they are temporarily cheaper. I recommend a 5 to 10% portfolio position in metals.
In these highly inflationary monetary policy environment, a portion of one’s portfolio should be in precious metals. This can be achieved through physical metal holdings, precious metal ETFs such as GLD, and mining stock ETFs such as GDX.
In this highly inflationary monetary policy environment, a portion of one’s portfolio should be in precious metals. This can be achieved through physical metal holdings, precious metal ETFs such as GLD, and mining stock ETFs such as GDX.
Martin,
You may want to update your article “The Next Contagion”. You are standing in front of the “Parthenon”–not the “Pantheon” (the sum collection of gods in a polytheistic society).
-David
quote” buy gold and silver and pray that it does not work” {unknown}
Silver is my favorite of the three metals. Most people should consider silver as a trade item or a substitute for fiat currency. As the dollar has fallen silver has become more valuable relative to the currency. Silver is a real store of value, unlike the falling dollar. With the baked in multi-trillion dollar debts our government is piling up (including underfunded social programs we’re talking at least $65 trillion) Congress and the Fed will be forced to monetize the debt. China, et al will eventually stop loaning to us or will demand hard assets in repayment. Already they are dropping dollars for commodities and telling thei citizens to buy silver and gold. Monetizing our federal debt dooms the dollar. We had all better have alternatives to the dollar. The right foreign currencies may be one answer. So also will be silver. I’m sure we’re all familiar with the arguments for silver. If not read a few back issues of Ted Butler’s newsletter. Silver is now much more rare than gold. Silver is not only an industrial metal, but is also a precious metal. Silver is money. It always has been and always will be. Of course, the danger is in the unConstitutional Executive Orders that presidents such as FDR have or might yet issue. As you all know, FDR issued and executive order to steal all the gold of U.S. citizens once before. Of course Obama has no problem with confiscation/theft either. He may simply follow FDR’s example. I like silver because it can be purchased in very small quantities with small values. It will be easier to buy lunch with an ounce of silver than trying to get change for an ounce of gold.
I’ve built positions in core stocks like Pepsi, Coke, JNJ, Mcdonalds and others and have consistantly traded Oils when they are cheap and selling when they get expensive but I am a little concerned about the gold and silver sector. Gold and silver had a nice run up but have pulled back significantly and we were advised to hold on to them. This is an area that I consider your specialty. You’ve been pretty quiet lately on the subject. What’s Up.
Tom
Martin;I have about 16% of my Portfolio in gold&silver Related
Investments.60%in annuities and the balance scattered in energy,
Bio tech,reits,communications foreign stocks and cash.I get your
letter plus the Oxford Club,the money Map and Motley Fools. From
these I try to determine the best areas to invest.So far I have done fairly well. Thanks for your very sound advice.
Fred Hughes
Martin; I have no Bonds. I do not need income since I have a very
goodRetirement program already.If Social Security goes belly up,I
will need a little income to fill in for it.It will not pay me to cash in
my annuities so I just leave them for my children.I recently moved into a retirement community with a good portion of my down payment coming back to my Estate. Thanks again for your
sound advice. Fred Hughes
Unlike other investments, gold and silver are things you buy because, at the bottom line, you want them. It does not matter so much if they go up or down a little. What matters is that they are the only real money, the most solid thing you can own, a total defense in the event of catastrophe, pretty and fun, and to be frank, probably have far more to go on the upside over the next few years as the dollar implodes.
Of the other gold and silver investments, I like carefully selected mining stocks, and I also like Palladium, I think it has slow, steady growth potential. One thing I have never seen discussed on this service was the run up of rhodium from 400 per oz to 10,000 early last year. It is back to around 1800. This had to be a Hunt Brotrhers type of trick on the part of some very saavy people. Has this ever been discussed in Money and Markets?
How do you see long term being able to sell silver in a reasonable way if things truly come unglued? Does one plan to sell and convert to dollars at a guesstimate of the zenith of silver’s pricing? Does one go out into the streets with “pieces” of silver or gold to barter? This seems remarkably impractical.I think this is not an unreasonable question given several peoples views who are credible researchers predicting some pretty wild financial and societal meltdown scenarios in the next five years
there is no safe place;brazil seems to have followed the usa and is trading with china agressively.they will be suffering along with us as their unemployment rises due to inferior cheaper products i a swap for all the brazilian resourses.for crap from china.sincerely wad
I’d consider devoting some money to shorting U.S. Treasuries. This one is a no brainer, in my humble opinion. Record supply vs. falling demand means prices for long-term treasuries will have to fall eventually. Use TBT (2X short 20YR US Treasuries) and I bet you’ll make some cash.
Other than the above, DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. High quality multinational consumer staple companies that are growing in emerging markets and have a history of increasing their dividends even through really bad times. Kraft, Unilever, Kellog, General Mills, etc… Plus these companies yield 3-5%!!!! Utility companies also pay good and consistent yields.
I forgot precious metals. Central banks are printing money like mad. I play precious metals through ASA. ASA gives one exposure to Gold miners, Silver miners, and palladium/platinum miners. ASA is yielding 1.9%.
I had given you pattern of my investment so far made. I have a mixed portfolio of mutual funds and annuity. I am trying to be safe in view of my retirement next year. Deffered comp is recovering well. Putnum Diversified fund is also doing well with i0% divident.
I would be much interested in venturing into some thing new though one is tempted to go China/India way. ANY SUGGESTION? I have been reading your roller coaster comments of and on. Thanks
Dear Dr. Martin,
Thank you for all your efforts to protect our wealth, as individuals and as a nation. I remember reading about the bank failures from you in 2004 WELL BEFORE any of it happened.
I have been buying and selling GLD (gold) since I read about your recommendation and have made money for the past few years. I try to buy on pullbacks and sell on relative peaks. Recently, I bought at $115 and it has pulled back (today it is about $108). But I am not disturbed because I like owning gold. So if it doesn’t go up, I just wait.
I think this is a great buying opportunity, not for short-term trading, but someone willing to hold for at least a year. I would buy more gold right now, but we just purchased a house and haven’t sold our other one yet. If you look at the chart from 2005 to 2010 the uptrend is still very much in tact.
Trent
Dear Dr. Weiss,
I have recently read in several publications, that the value of the dollar will go down by 50% or more against gold and other commodities in the next several years or less, possibly crashing 25% in 1 day. Do you expect this to happen? If so, what effect per centage wise do you feel it would have on upper middle class (low forclosure) neighborhoods on Long Island. Thanks.
One of your long standing subscibers,
Ralph
Thanks for asking these important questions Martin. Though lengthy I’m certain I will cover the bases for my position.
Here’s what I do and what I recommend: PHYSICAL SILVER!
I’ve been watching people come around to silver over the past 9 or 10 years as it went from around $5 to present. Why do they finally get it? Because the pressure is building dramatically on these very small precious metals markets would be my guess. The gold:silver ratio is near all time highs (presently 66:1.) At $1100 to $1200 gold has barely reached 50% of its dollar-adjusted high (1980) of $850+or-/toz which would now be somewhere around $2500. And if you think gold is undervalued then please check silver! With an adjusted record high $45+or-/toz (1980) silver would have to be over $130/toz today which means that at a present price of $20/toz we haven’t reached 16% of the these highs.
Also ask yourself this question: “Are we better off today then we were in 1980?” If not, then doesn’t this mean that gold, silver and other precious metals could go much higher than even those historic records? In the last depression, we had gold and silver as currency. If this truly is a “shadow depression,” just how desperate do you think people will become when the currency, which has no value unless every one agrees it does, fails to keep its promise after this forced deflationary spiral from the Fed?
If you think this is too obtuse of a question or perspective then please go back and enjoy your paper world for as long as it lasts. Why would you care what happens outside the federal reserve and its various shadow government lies and cabals? Stick with what you know and leave more cheap PMs for the rest of us. May your paper keep you warm at night. :)
Also gold, as a precious metal, just sits there getting relocated/vaulted by wealthy nation’s central banks kept as a safeguard yet gold has very little involvement in industry other than telephony. Silver, on the other hand, is not only the second most popular precious metal for holding value but even more so an industrial one (e.g.: recently discovered bactericidal uses for the health and/or purity industries, the greatest electrical conductor in the world for electronics, photo-reactive for the photography industry [declining], etc., etc.)
Finally the theories: Silver availability is reaching default levels very soon according to their own declining yearly inventories at the COMEX. With an obvious 40% manipulation of the silver short market of this same COMEX, J.P. Morgan must have some reason for keeping a huge amount of silver paper short contracts in play (that could never be redeemed for the small amount of silver remaining.) The risk is potentially enormous to them yet they continue to hold a massive (perhaps illegal?) position. Could such an act of desperation be a indicator of how weak a link or how fragile a thread holding up the fiat currency world might actually be? What else, if not gold and silver, would you imagine money to be when these empty promises collapse. Why try so hard to make PMs look so “valueless?” The CFTC is blatantly looking the other way no matter how many times Ted Butler demands an investigation. So what can be done if even regulators won’t protect exchanges?? The amount of silver ETFs (that probably don’t have ANY silver stored in them) which were quickly endorsed when it seemed the COMEX might be close to a default should give one pause. There is less than a billion refined tozs. of silver remaining (see: Jason Hommel, et. al.) but more than 4 billion tozs. of refined gold just sitting in central bank vaults waiting for the coming “Great Currency Tanking” of the near future. Perhaps when Greece starts a terrible domino effect from Southern Europe to the whole European Union and then to the planet. Do you think EVERYONE is simply going to run to the dollar? Do you think the entire world will simply forget 4000 years of precious metals as money and run to a valueless piece of paper from a historically unethical, questionable and violent nation like the US? And other than the last 40 years just what evidence do you have for an such idiotic reaction like that from 6 billion people who are desperately trying to hold onto anything of value and that doesn’t collapse like their own currencies.
There has never been a fiat currency that has stood up over time. Why would someone think that, some how, the US$, which is showing huge amounts of stress and almost daily discoveries of some hidden shell game between the central banks, the BIS and wall street, will survive all this? That, somehow, this deteriorating primary reserve currency is going to revive itself from VAST hyper-inflationary potential and become the first permanent fiat currency in the history of the planet?? And I’ve supposedly lost perspective by betting on precious metals? “Would you be interested in investing in part of a bridge? ‘Cause I know of one for sale…”
I keep physical silver because ETFs are being used to keep investors out of the physical market (evidence of more pressure?) Every investor who buys PM ETFs is betting against their own profit potential (and mine) when these funds are used to deflect the real silver investors out of the physical market, into paper promises and away from the remaining COMEX silver. The day the default and the price of silver skyrockets is the day that A.) ETFs are discovered as just another false promise of real silver being held. Which is highly unlikely. or B.) The planet simply runs desperately short of the metal and the true value is finally exposed through a default(s).
With PMs showing a growing lack of availability, and shortage for numismatics, the only way to force the hand of this VERY secretive and entrenched cabal/exchange and it’s few powerful “controllers” of the metals market is to purchase physical metal at ALL times and break the back of these three-card-monty criminals that have taken over our nation, our voice and all real (not imagined) market value.
Thanks for reading this far,
S.
PS: I suspect that with 650 comments left here I probably just left another redundant comment. I’m sure Larry Edelson doesn’t see much new here either. lol So be it.
Read Robert Chapman’s “The International Forecaster” for your answer.
Martin, I am still keeping my portfolio allocated to 10% gold, 5% silver and 10% dividend paying-utilities, 10% infrastucture (dividend paying paying-pipelines, water, electric transmission), 25% dividend paying-oil & gas, 20% Alternative energy Co’s.(solar,wind, geothermal, nuclear & lithium batteries), 10% dividend paying-healthcare reits & pharmaceuticals, and 10% interest-bearing cash. I hold mental 25% trailing stops on from highest closes only that I sell next morning automatically at mkt. should the market crash again as I expect sometime during this yr or at the latest by end of next yr. at worst in timing of another financial collapse that I do expect. I consider the over $3 trillion budget Obama submitted for job stimulation as only more icing on the eventual collapse. It does buy votes from some I am sure, but is not the right remedy nor do I expect any current politician in office to do what is truly needed and let natural economic law & markets do their cleansing. So be patient– it will happened as much time passes. I am a child of the depression, so I know how bad it can get and govt now doing the similiar things they did then in 30’s. Nothing new–human nature never changes much it seems with age & time. Keep your investment orientation now in sectors people & co’s must have to survive and to maintain some financial survival for yourselves. You will lost some mkt value in your portfolio’s no matter what sectors you have– just hope the sectors you chose don’t lose as badly as other sectors will. That is the best you can truly expect in the REAL not VIRTUAL world. I hope this helps everyone be smarter from an ole geezer that has been through the mkt battles for a lot of yrs.
Don’t believe gold is a good investment…too much hype…at around 1100 per ounce.
Still believe in investment grade corporates,mostly industrials, that pay (out 8 years or so) almost 6%…
The monetary base has exploded recently but that money is going nowhere. I’ve read that 98% of the cash given to the largest banks is still sitting on there balance sheets, not being lent out. If there is no lending to consumers and business, where will GDP growth come from.? In reality, that money was stolen by bankers to save the banks, not the economy. In short, there is no velocity of money which in my mind is necessary for inflation. When that money eventually makes it into the general economy then you can expect all hell to break lose.
In my mind the only reason to own gold and silver is for protection against a fiat currency becoming totally valueless. Even at that, one might be better of owning something tangible that also produces income, such as rental property.
I think that an investigation on the implications of fed policy in its response to the credit crisis or lack of liqiudity is in order.Where did the money go.WiLL the money ever get into the real economy and cause hyper inflation.So far all I see is deflation.Housing prices are not rising.Commercial properties are no doubt lowering their lease rates to retain tenants.Ford is rehiring but at 12 dollars an hr, less than what was previously paid.So the bar is being lowered on anyone that is unemployed to return to work.Some workers that have given up and are at end of their unemployment benifets will cash out and take their pensions.Being on fixed income I doubt if they roar their spending back as was before.Its interesting that the bonus”s the bailed out banksters are taking is cash when in a bull market they took stock options.When the dollar goes up all asset’s go down.Its an all the same market theory.The tarp money appears to be the largest swindle in history.The American tax payer now assumes the worthless c.d.o.s, s.d obligations.They made huge profits when they created and sold this crap and now they get paid again in advance and in full for commiting securities fraud.All markets including precious metals could go lower observe how violent this correction was 10weeks of gains wiped out in 3,to 4 days.Thats not normal.I would never tell anyone to load up on gold,I would say add a portion,because it could go down to 600 an oz.The shorts and the longs will both take a beating in this market. No timing method is perfect for a bear market and I believe we are still in it.The Russians say the fish rots from the head down.Example we now know that climate change is fraud,healthcare reform a fraud.But our leaders want to ram these tax schemes down our throats whether we the people like it or not.Even an addicted gambler knows when to walk away from a dirty table.Caution and the long horizon is needed. What will survive once this cycle has completed.
What is the consensus on G MAEs? Should they be bought or sold and why?
Down here in New Zealand… My only source of income is residential rental property .Eight duplexs, debt mostly paid down . Have been buying gold coins, either British sovereigns or 1 oz coins. There was no gold confiscation in the British Empire in the thirties so their gold coinage ,(sovereigns being old English pounds ,22 carat .2354 troy oz each) is still abundant ,not circulating of course. Great example of Greshams law in operation “bad money drives out good.”These coins are my disaster money standby together with silver in a pool account in the Perth Mint
One word more about PHYSICAL SILVER.
Even many silver bugs in US don’t realize how lucky they are to have the opportunity to acquire physical silver. And it comes in the best forms there. Silver Eagles are most beautiful and sought after coins.
But outside US, investment silver is hard to find. In Asia there is only gold everywhere. In most European countries pure silver is simply unavailable. Silver in Europe is also subject to VAT, which is up to 27% !
(So if you decide to move to Europe one day with your silver money, you will increase your wealth by some 25% that day)
There is simply not much silver to buy out there. So buy as much as you can and while you can !
Pure physical silver and gold are commodities and monetary instruments (can be even traded on Forex with other currencies). As such they can be freely moved between countries without any duty or tax. The gov mint official coins (silver eagle, maple leaf, etc) are best because they even legal tender (not collectibles), with face value on them. Money itself can not be taxed.
Any paper (ETFs, futures, etc) silver/gold investments are subject to tax.
ao where does a person buy precious metals ? with all of the scams on the internet unless I could know where to physically go and buy it, like a bank and take it home with me .I havent ever bought any kind of bond or anything so how does one do this safely without a total risk ! It seems that even with the banking mess that is one of the way to get started !where can I getinfo on how finance works ?Should I take a short course in it?
I have a generous pension a modest amount of savings, and no debt. My portfolio consists of your recommended growth stocks with foreign holdings at about 15 %. A Gold mutual fund,TGLDX, accounts for 39 % of my portfolio, largely because of the runup in the past year.
I have 25% of my portfolio in physical gold but think this is not the time to add to it. Because it looks like we are in of a deflationary bout plus dollar appreciation and as I do not want to let go of my physical gold I have bought into inverse silver ETFs equivalent to 50% of todays gold value
Loading up on Gold at this time would be a WS Guess but that is what I am doing even with George Soros’s “bubble” comment about gold at Davos, SW last week. He and his cruel friends probably shorted gold prior to the statement in hopes of a selloff but their strategy failed to materalize at least for now.
My retirement portfolio currently has 30+% in Gold (SGOL), Silver (SIVR) and other commodities (Mario Gabelli Trusts: GGN and GUT) with appropriate stop losses to hopefully offset the “share the wealth” political market manipulations. As a MCP member and a Weiss Elite participant, I am reasonably comfortable with my positions.
I’ve been mainly focused at EWJ as a contrarian play. The japanese stocks are so far down for the last 20 years, it’s too interesteing of an investment not to get involved in. Their sovereign bonds and currency may become trash, but it will benefit one of the world’s largest exporters when their production costs are based on cheap currency. I am also short LT treasuries. I have absolutely no confidence on the Obama administration on maintaining any form of financial discipline. What better way to deflect talk of the defecit than to bury it inside a committee.
Hello Dr. Weiss and Associates–
This entry is a little late–My fiance and I were out of town over the weekend. I am more heavily weighted in precious metals (mostly silver, a little bit of gold, and one little bar of paladium) over any one other single thing. In spite of it’s volitility, I understand it better, I think, especially as a more long-term investment. I realize that there will come a time to sell most of it, but that time is a ways off yet. I’m not playing any of the interim or short term highs and lows, as I do not have that kind of money for risk. Precious metals are an important part of my core holdings. I might sell a small portion to help one of my offspring with college later on this year, but that is about it.
Take care, and
God bless,
Lisa R.
I am new to investing and have limited resources; I have enjoyed reading you emails and blogs. I am concerned about the huge debt the government is incurring and think someday if we are going to be hurt bad. Owning gold and silver seems like a good choice but just how to do that is my question. ETF sounds like an answer but I see that some people shun this option because it may not be backed by the PM but a promise that may not have a guarantee. Can you help explain this?
I have some physical silver but not sure I could sell it without incurring a large discount. How can I own PM in small dollar amounts without having to store it and be sure it is safe? ———Rich B
I am leery of gold at this time because there has been a large run up already.
I am a small size investor, I converted all my saving cash into Gold and will see what will happen by the end of 2010. Thanks to your efforts, good guide and rich information we receive from your site. Please keep-on the success as you’re my insight.
have been buying pysical silver every month the past year¤tly own silver at the average price of $17.50.
where do you expect the price to go in 2010 ? if the price is $25
should i sell 50% ?
With the US in the hands of legislators like Maxine Waters et al of her ilk (think dems)
nothing that is lucrative is safe. I heard Rep. Waters during a hearing in which she had
the CEO of Shell Oil at attention she threatened to vote to Nationalize the US oil refining industry because Exxon had such a good year, it seems to me that the dems will demonize and tax any type of industry that does well with windfall profits taxes. Ipso facto any lucrative and well run business will be demonized and taxed. Gold in a bank vault has done well and if there is a need to get away from the US to Peru in a hurry theoretically you could take your wealth with you. A goal of the dems seems to me to be the makeover of the US into a socialist or UN governed state how does one invest for such (what seems obvious to me) an inevitable planned end ? 1. there seems to be planned currency destruction. 2. Subsidizing the incompent 3.
The encouragement of immorality 4. No country can last with those kinds of goals so
it seems inevitable to me that the US is unsafe to invest in
I think silver is a good play. The Chinese gov. is encouraging its people to buy gold and now silver. They are hoarding it. Silver is used in manufacturing as well as money and jewelry (many things). It is consumed and is not replaced. There is not much of it left.
What should be ideal portfolio??what % in different class of Assets ioncl Gold and silver??If we were to believe your view and talk on possible problem with US Govt and dealing with retirement fund, where should one invest his money???
Hello,
I own some gold coins I bought back when gold was low. I hold onto them in case the bottom drops out of everything.
What are your thoughts on the accumulation of gold & silver? I am interested.
Since the government is broke and can only default or devalue the dollar why arent you recommending going 100 % in gold and silver period. It is not an investment but money. Who will ever buy a treasury if one of the above occurs even if treasuries yield 20 % ?
Foreigners will not accept more useless paper at 20%.
Thanks
I’m seriously considering investing in the “GoldMoney” process to invest my limited funds in precious metals. I’m also considering cashing out my annuities to help do this. I don’t like the fact that when I eventually draw paper based money from my annuity funds, my income will be decaying from within by inevitable rampant inflation. I’m new at this whole game, but I can see the writing on the (Federal Reserve) wall.
I am already loaded up with gold. But I am beginning to think that I acted too soon. After all, everytime there is a threat in the world (like the threat of a Greek government financial collapse) everyone comes running for safe cover with the U.S. dollar. When will inflation take off and the safe haven of dollars give way to gold? Will it take a marked decrease in U.S. unemployment figures before inlation begins with a vengeance?
I was hoping you were answering this question today! I have an IRA CD coming due and planned to use part of it to buy gold. Don’t know much about it yet, but just requested and received a packet from a company who sells gold.
I would wait until Gold retraces to under 1000 before adding it to a portfolio unless it goes above 1100, then consider adding for a short run to near its previous high before taking profits and a reset.
Silver needs to break and stay above its 200 sma before considering adding it to a portfolio or needs to be left to decline below $14 before risking a buy.
I have about 25% of investment funds in gold and silver. I think now that silver and palladium will out-perform gold in the long term, but I don’t know the best way to invest in palladium.
Martin, You are the expert on this one. Have the past dynamics driving gold and silver prices have changed? ie: Growing middle class in China and India creating demand for gold. Decreasing confidence in currencies when inflation sets in. Isn’t inflation the fed’s plan to devalue all our debt (and net worth). I feel more sure about gold than almost anything (other than organic food).
Seems like markets may be uncontrollably manipulated – but maybe I’m wrong?
Split investment funds equally three ways:
CDs (several smaller 5 year 4.75% so change out early if/when rates go high)
IRA (70% equity, 30% bonds) in case Bernaki can perform miracles
Gold & Siver coins (mostly gold, but also silver for easier resale or trading)
Other funds (about half of total) in free & clear residential real estate.
Plus hold enough cash for about 3 months emergency sustinence.
I paid more money than most investment letters cost to get data from all your people but every time they have a new investment item they like they want more money
I have bought through out the years physical gold, silver and palladium. I was taught that when stocks go down, gold and commodities go up. Seems pretty simple to me.
And, its just a matter of time before stocks go down.
Dear Martin, I feel that the dollar is going the way of all fiat currencies and silver is my choice. Unless I miss my guess it is only a matter of a short time when the dollar will be worth no more than the paper and ink printed on it. My reasn for liking silver is that the historical ratio to gold is way out of balance since there is much less physical silver than gold in the world. Do you know of any gold backed currency in the world today?
Sure would appreciate an answer.
Don Blettner
Referring to gold investments, I have several times read that GLD, IAU are oversold and do not have enough physical gold to back the purchases. How do we find out the truth? Is it also true of SLV? Concerning the purchase of physical gold, ingots, I read that the seller has to notify the government of purchases of $10,000 and over, and that some dealers are reporting purchases as low as $1000. If this is true, there is the thought of confiscation again as in FDR’s reign.?? Is there any way to maintain privacy. What treasury bill short term money market is still available?
Martin I wanted to ask about investing in Lithium. I was informed that it may be used in the future for energy in place of oil. Is this true and is this a good investment either way?
I was holding gold in the order of 10-15% of total portfolio until a few months ago. As I came to realize that the U.S.A. economic market is in very real trouble … and that we can possibly wake up some morning to the dollar value dropping like a rock. I shudder to visualize the buying power of a non-Reserve dollar. Accordingly, I’m moving into the 25-50% of total portfolio range … and am assuming that gold will actually move into the $2,500 – $5,000 range.
When we ultimately return to sanity in the White-house and Congress, I’ll return to ETF’s … or move to Costa Rica.
Silver… undervalued vs gold , industrial uses
If I didn’t know that the “Fed” and its chairman are really global criminals feeding themselves at the trough in a frenzy at our expense, and at the expense and misery of our children and grandchildren, I would have thought that this guy Bernanke is an idiot or just doesn’t know what he is doing. The fact of the matter is that there is nothing federal about the “Fed”; it is a private banking institution formed, owned and controlled by powerful families (i.e. the Rothchilds, the Warburgs, the Rockefellers, etc.) across the globe whose primary interest is indebting us and enriching themselves while impoverishing our nation. Bernanke does know exactly what he is doing – and it’s to benefit himself and his fellow mafiosos in the process of destroying our country. They don’t fight inflation or economic crises – they create them. They are the main drivers and advocates of a one world order and are closely aligned with other criminals and enemies of our country within our own government. It’s time to wake up America!
Forget futures and ETFs (though mining shares can be a good bet). I believe that if you can’t hold the stuff in your hands you don’t actually own it. Physical metal wins every time. In January last year I bought some 1kg silver bars for $NZ769.00 each. Today they are selling for over $1100.00. What other asset class delivers profits like this?
Hallo Martin . I bought silver at $18 p/oz and am I glad I took that chance. Thanks for all your great advice , hold on to your hats cause I think the whole world in in for a bigger ride than they ever thought possible!
I just read Claus Vogt, the Global Debt Trap. Claus recommends to invest in Gold. How do I get started and how do you go about buying Gold in different countries to diversify the investment. Is it better to buy solid gold bars and lock them in a safe, or do you buy gold stock or shares? I would appreciate your help.
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