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Yesterday, the unthinkable happened: General Motors — one of America’s oldest, largest and most respected companies — went bankrupt.
This morning, this venerable, 100-year-old company …
This firm that survived two world wars … The Great Depression … the Korean and Vietnam wars … the oil shock, recession and runaway inflation of the 1970s … and scores of other shocks over ten long decades …
This great icon of American innovation and success … won court approval to begin liquidating its assets as soon as possible.
These are dark days indeed — a personal catastrophe — for GM’s employees and for hundreds of thousands of other workers at dealers and suppliers who thought they had jobs that would last a lifetime.
But the implosion of GM is more than just the guarantee of surging unemployment rates as far as the eye can see. And it’s much more than just the failure of one of our most powerful engines of economic growth.
For nearly a century, GM has served as a metaphor for the overall U.S. economy — the harbinger of things to come for the stock market, for investors and for every American family.
For nearly five generations, most economists accepted the mantra, “As General Motors goes, so goes America.” And those words were never truer than they are today.
The simple truth is, debt killed GM. The company could have easily weathered this economic storm had it not buried itself beneath a $173 billion mountain of debt.
Is America Next?
In its failed attempts to save GM, AIG, Fannie and Freddie, the entire banking sector and many other companies, Washington is now creating its own Mt. Everest of debt.
But Washington’s debt bubble makes GM’s pale by comparison — and it’s inflating the size of that bubble at the staggering rate of $3.8 billion per day.
As we’ve seen in recent weeks, Washington’s record-shattering spending binge is already crippling the economy. Treasury prices are cratering. Rising interest rates — the kiss of death in a weakening economy — are already increasing borrowing costs for companies and consumers.
Meanwhile, in what has proven to be a failed attempt to stop the surge in interest rates, the Fed is feverishly printing dollars — creating money out of thin air — to buy more than $700 billion in bonds so far this year.
So the question of the day — the single most important question any investor can answer now — is simply this:
Will America survive?
How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
Your opinion is critically important to me personally and to all of us here at Weiss Research. Just scroll down and use this blog to let me know what you think.
My team and I will meet you there to address your concerns, answer your questions, respond to your ideas and help in any way we can.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 1273 comments… read them below or add one }
No question it is sad. But take the emotional away and GM should not have been offered government money, nor accepted when offered. I believe GM was run with great incompetence. As you stated debt killed it. Where is all the cash from the haydays? Not only the debt but they are burdened down by the unions.
GM should have filed bankruptcy 9 months ago. That would have been the proper capitalistic approach.
Nothing surprises me anymore. I have been taking your advice and divesting myself of stocks. I am moving more and more into gold and GDX, I like China at this time. I am in TBT as well. I am movings up to 8% into TIP as an inflation hedge. I am back in OIL and agriculture through MOO and DBA. Looking forward to your broadcast tomorrow at noon.
Us farmers are so happy with the inflation that we can’t stop giggling, everyday we see the grain pices go up. It’s one big party and it’s about time fiscal irresponsibility kicked in, haven’t seen times so good since 1973 during the great russian grain robbery!
Crop rotation then was, corn, soybeans, florida! Now it is corn, soybeans, mexico!
Mr.Weiss,
I have read that JPM and Citi will be payed 100 cents on the dollar for their exposure to GM. Is there anyway you can monitor this situation? As this will be again another fleecing of the tax payers. Disclosure: I am short JPM Jan 2010 $5 put options.
HL seems to be having a lot of attention lately and I wanted to know your thoughts. With Gold and Silver seemingly going up and up, this seems like a good play. Cramer doesn’t seem to think so though?
Just curious….
vp
At first you have to replace these criminals at Wall Street and replace them with People
they have 1.Moral, 2. Dignity, 3.Faith to God. After then you can overhaul America.
I think President Obama is at first a good start…….
The answer is … we don’t know the answer! People like me who don’t spend all their time studying the markets are relying on people like you (who do!) to shed light on what we are seeing. The key question right now for me is ‘what is driving everything up right now?’ If I can identify these drivers (which are a mystery to me), then I might have better insight into the future. Thanks a lot!
Hi,
I believe that you have one of the best and most accurate understandings of the present financial situation that I have seen or heard. Thank you for your insight.
Before Jesus left this earth He said that He was coming back again. The present financial and political situation give me the impression that events may be developing that will soon result in His return.
God bless!
Martin: The financial situation is truly bad in many sectors (Financial Services, Airlines, Retailing, Insurance, Government, etc etc). But what is the real issue is truly poor management, terrible decision-making, high risk investments, incredible egos combined with magnificent personal payouts to those who took risk with the assets and the people, to benefit themselves. Your continued negative prognostications may be correct; but you might think about what drives markets, stocks, and also commodities. It is pure need and also (perceived present or future) VALUE. Responsible advisors, such as yourselves, would be better for America and the world to advise of POSITIVE investments and also POSITIVE ACTIONS for managers and investors.
At this point, one of the worst things that could happen would be a rebound in consumption. If that happens, it will lead a period of runaway inflation due to limits to comodity supplies, combined with all the global liquidity unleashed by the bailouts and the quantitative easing that many governments undertook lately. In the meantime, the govenment actions will generaly look like a good idea, since all the stimulus money and the bailouts are able to maintain a semblance of normalcy in people’s everyday lives. This continued illusion, serves to maintain public confidence in the system, which is a must in order to ensure the survival of the system.
As for the rise in treasury yields, they would have to rise much higher before trully afecting hopes of a recovery. Current yields and prices should atract some investors, which will allow for the contined financing of the debt incured by government. This in turn will allow for the contiued subsidizing of the economy through government spending. As a result, economic colapse is not iminent, but could happen in a very bad way down the road in a few years.
Regarding the 3 ways to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries (3 mos. or less), which are: directly from the Treasury, a U.S. Treasury-only Money Market Fund, or an ETF, I wondered which is the best vehicle for parking new money when the price of Treasuries is going down and interest rates are rising? Do you risk losing principle in this environment?
Hello Martin,
I’m Canadian and I’m very sad about what is happening presently, especially to America.
But, because several countries in the world depend on US economy, I think that it is something that will help USA to pass through the crisis. I don’t think it is in the best interest of them to see America going down.
Good luck and God Bless America
Jean
Of course America will not fail, we will just be put into a downward bear market spiral that will last a decade or so, but I think we will come out of this a better country. almost 15 years ago when I was in college (studying political science) we always talked about how the world hegemony would change from the US to China in 20 years. And it would not take a world war or nuclear catastrophe to see this transistion through. Even in the field of political science it was always economics that would drive us down to a point where we would end up making drastic changes to our lifestyle to survive. We are already seeing signs that the Asian markets will likely come out of this thing long before we do, and will probably not pull us out with them. Instead we will end up depending on what it is we do.
Without being said the money being spent on R&D right now in this country is staggering, almost 20 billion just for smart grid developments. Although it is a mountain of debt the investment will likely yield dividends in the future. As we will likely be the country that takes technoligies like this to the next level. We will have to in order to survive. And that is the real strength of America, we will do what is neccessary to eventually survive. The problem is how much money are we going to waste refocussing, because no one likes to see others suffer, so how bad will it get, probably pretty bad unless you are smart, pay attention to whats going on and of course be flexible, it is indeed the dawn of a new world.
I think you are right on target. Chrysler last month, GM yesterday and unfortunately, I believe that Ford will come under King O’s sceptre next year. Ford’s problem is they did it right. They mortgaged themselves to provide the operating capital to avoid problems. It will be the debt that brings them down as they try to compete with companies without debt.
I live in the Detroit area, and to say it has been pretty here–is an understatement. It has been 5 years that we have been in a recession, if not depression. House values are less than they were 10 years ago. Businesses are going out of business each day.
It is in this environment that I have a question–if the Dollar continues to lose value or is devalued by King O, all assets valued in dollars will lose value, including ETFs. Is it time to invest in hard assets such as diamonds, gold, silver? If so, would you invest in stocks of those assets or take possession of them? Where would you buy and how would you store them?
Thanks.
tom
Suggestions for investments for short-term (6-7 months) might be GOLD,. SILVER, commodities that are consumable (food, water, etc) and also cement. Why cement ? OPbama and the Chinese Administrators have collectively allocated over US$1.5 trillion in INFRASTRUCTURE projects that mostly have cement in common. The market on cement and (possibly US Made steel) could be much higher later this year. Second, after a modest correction of less than 20-25%, the price of oil will (again) doom past US$100 a barrel in the next few years, therefore driving up the prices of oil, gasoline, and plastic products. Again, here is a possibility for a longer term (2-3 years) hedge against inflation and also a gain !
Today, a financial planner I interviewed in order to find a more conservative advisor than the one I current retain — said he did not think he could work with me because I was a Fatalist — too doom and gloom in my beliefs. He said he sees the recovery coming soon and everything will go back to normal. GEEZ, is anybody in the financial planning world awake or are they telling their clients lies? I see hyperinflation as the only way out of this debt/currency crisis and I am just an average educated, not so good in math American, self employed, single mom in OKLA. Am I being a fatalist? Or a realist? Help – please tell me I am not alone! How in the world do I protect what little I have, keep our house, as we move into this oncoming crash I see on the horizon? Financial planners LAUGH when I inquire about holding physical precious metals – is this rediculous? How do I know the truth when I read it? Right now I am just trusting the small inner voice that says save, prepare, learn new skills, stay calm…
Martin – Are you taking into account the tremendous amount of “money” that the Treasury Dept. and Fed Reserve is injecting into the economy? By all rights, the stock market should have continued going down on March 9th, but “mysteriously” began it’s shocking and unsupported move upwards. There are folks saying that the government, in collusion with some of the banks and investment houses, is manipulating the markets for bank reliquification and to give the impression of recovery. Given that I have no idea what is going on “behind the curtain”, I am absolutely mystified about what to invest in, but have a number of short ETF positions in which I am being clobbered.
Dear Dr Wise,
I don’t disagree with any of your comments, however I think its important to state that the US car manufacturing industry was never very efficient, forward thinking or environmentally friendly, therefore any major economic downturn was likely to cause the collapse of these poorly managed businesses. GM will eventually emerge out of bankruptcy much leaner and less debt laden, therefore do you really think it is such a terrible thing that they are in chapter 11.
By the way, I think the US Government Bond Market and US Dollar are going to be in for a tough time in the near and medium term, therefore not holding US dollars or these Bonds may not make you any money but will stop you loosing it for sure.
Kind regards
Cliff Price
P.S. Going forward I feel Commodities linked to a green enviroment should prove to be wise investment
Dear Mr. Weiss, I’ve enjoyed your comments as well as those of your staff and have greatly increased my wisdom as a result. Presently, I am retired and depend on investments-but not Social Security yet for my income. I am a resident of Florida and I own two homes-one in Nebraska, and one in Naples, Florida. Both are debt free. In the current economic environment, would you recommend selling both homes (to cut the costs of maintaining two homes) and moving into one house in Florida, or would you recommend waiting until the economy improves before moving into one larger home? Do you see the residential housing market weakening considerably from what it is now-particularly in Florida? Keep up the outstanding work-all of you! Sincerely, Douglas
I TEND TO BE ANTI-UNION, HOWEVER GM MANAGEMENT DESERVES MUCH BLAME FOR RELENTING TO THE UNIONS DURING STRONG ECONOMIC TIMES TO KEEP THE PLANTS RUNNING AT ANY COST. THE PEOPLE I FEEL THE MOST SYMPATHY FOR ARE THE DEALERSHIPS AND SUB-SUPPLIERS. THE OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACT WILL CERTAINLY BE HUGE ! WHAT ABOUT FORD AND THEIR ABILITY TO SURVIVE ? I HAVE NOT HEARD MUCH ABOUT FORD. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT OUR LACK OF INDUSTRIAL MFG. CAPACITY TO SUPPORT OUR MILITARY !
I am based in the UK, and tensions in the Euro Zone are mounting. Covert protectionism is rampant (particularly in the aftermath of the GM debacle) with Germany for example saving German car plants at the expense of Belgium. You have already recommended an inverse ETF in the US financial sector – but doesn’t the European sector have farther to fall?
I believe one must trade the foreign exchange currency market and then invest a good portion of the profits in gold for capital preservation.
For the last couple of decades GM has designed and manufactured extremely terrible vehicles that were inferior to Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc. Management learned nothing from the auto industry crisis in the 1970’s/early 1980’s. By sinking so deep in debt in making dreadful trucks/suvs/cars, GM deserves to be bankrupt.
Hello Martin,
I think Larry Edelson broadly has it right concerning the best places to be over the next few years, namely natural resources, particularly oil and gold, with a currency hedge against a declining dollar (in addition to gold). The Far East will grow much faster than the West and will also be a draw on agriculture.
It is clear that the approach by Governments to the mountain of debt held by the US, UK and other Western economies will be to devalue. This will help the world economy rebalance and enable us all to get poorer in the most politically acceptable way. For those nations favoring socialist leaning policies this will be particularly so as a means of wealth redistribution. Holding natural resoources will be one of the best antidotes to this.
I am one of your million dollar contrarian investment subscribers and agree with the analysis of the world economy offered by Claus but I wonder about the effects of inflation on stock prices. At present company earnings are not rising so rising stock prices are making them much more expensive. But if the Fed is pumping vast quantities of new dollars into the economy is it not possible that we are witnesssing a stock bubble developing that could run for quite some time yet? If so holding inverse ETFs could prove very expensive.
Keep up the fantastic work that you and your team perform. I value highly all that you do, as no doubt do thousands of others.
Jonathan
Yes, America will survive, but it will take a lot pain and suffering for the American people before surviving.
Rising interest rates and money printing (or inflation) will reduce our buying power. So I am positioned already for this 2 things going forward.
Profit opprtunities:
1. Bear mkt funds already in place but would like to incorporate (especially Weiss Bear Strategy) still waiting for the program to be in our platform (hopefully very soon)
2. Inverse ETF on troubled asset class.
3. Precious Metals, Energy, Agriculture
Thank You and Good Luck to everyone………….
Interest rates rising will at least help retirees. Hopefully they will rise and stay a couple of points higher than inflation.
Martin,
Thank’s so much for your letter’s. As for your question; “Will America survive?” I feel that we are heading towards another big bubble crash in the commercial real estate sector with all the recent clousures & bankruptcy’s of fairly large businesses like GM, Chrysler, General Growth, Levit’s Furniture, Wick’s Furniture, Basett Furniture, Circuit City, Linen & Things, CompUSA, Joe’s, Mervyn’s, etc, etc. I just don’t see where in the near future there will be enough new business starts to fill all these empty stores along with so many smaller empty spots in the Mall’s in my area of Portland, Oregon. Now looking at this and the other place’s that have been hit even harder like Detroit I feel when this finally hit’s home we are in for a real rough ride making the housing crash look small in comparison. I hope I’m wrong and all this Goverment Stimulus will turn it back around, but I’m not to encouraged so far.
Thank’s Again,
Mark Clark
Even if the government owns a portion of every major bank in the USA; there will be a ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ opportunity to buy banks, again, at a 20% lower price. Try buying stocks such as STI and WFC and sit back for 3-5 years and get triple your money back (or more). Or set a price of 20-25% lower for the ETF known as: XLF and invest at a lower point than now, and hold for a good period of time, until you achieve a reasonably high goal (gain of >100% or >300% or more). This basket of stocks may really surprise you in the longer term, even if the negative prognosticators hate banks today. Learn from history: Continental Illinois Bank (1970s), Lockheed (1970s), Chrysler (1980), and others that have been ‘reorganizaed’ through various laws AND sometimes governmental help to a genuine comeback success.
It’s terrifying to me that “government” is going to “run” some of this country’s largest businesses, when “government” cannot run “government” with any responsibility and efficiency. To the naysayers, it’s not Bush’s fault or Obama’s (soon to be) fault…the blame goes to Congress…the ONLY answer is to vote against EVERY incumbent (we can’t get any worse) and, as Donald Trump would say…”you’re fired!”
America will survive, but our kids and grandkids will be paying for all this…we’re spending stimules money to reward the crooks…maybe we all should become crooks!
I am 51…..youngest of the old…..oldest of the young……..
I (vaguely) remember the days of no credit cards, living on a budget, eating healthy foods, and no computers or divorce.
I am back to it…… (except I think computers are not going anywhere)…..to stay……and have been since January of last year……as a Real Estate agent, and a baby boomer, I saw this coming…….our boys 15 and 12 (we started late) will either be living in the an economic America much like the 1950’s…… or a socialist country much like Europe…….
PRAY…..PREPARE……PROCEED……..
Margaret…Kings Mountain North Carolina
What about Gold? I have dropped totally out of the market except for GLD. Today, in the mail, I received an unsolicited report from a guy named Nick Guarino who states that Gold is about to crash! What say you?
We’re screwed.
Martin, Larry and co.,
My concern is that Uncle sam will be in bankruptcy. What court handles that? What becomes of all those who earned retirement in gov service et al? And US obligations worldwide? Truckloads of dollar bills to buy a loaf of bread
ala 1923 in Germany? And end game? Options, futures, inverse funds? Who pays for the gains expected?
- A curious 80 something old…
We might own a print shop ourselves.
hi guys
my name is Eddie , i am a German guy , living in South Africa.
i am a typical “gold bug” and am well invested in gold – and silver- minging stocks.
furthermore i am holding high dividend stocks in terms of MLP’s energy-funds.
also, i do believe in Chinese stocks much rather than in any american stocks. i will only invest in US -stocks, which you will recommand in your million $ contrarian portfolio.
for me, the comming missery for the US of Goldman is a forgone conclusion, and i feel sorry for the american taxpayer.
happy investing and good luck
Eddie
I am based in Canada and a subscriber of the MCP of Martin and Claus
Vogt. I bought the recommended US stocks in Canadian dollar but because
the US$ is depreciating compared to Cdn$ my portfolio is getting more
negative results because of the exchange rate. I sold my Kinross Gold
and El Dorado US stocks and bought it here at the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSX). Is this the right thing to do? Do you have other better alternatives? Thanks.
I have seen gold and silver come and go. I think that it is a bit late to invest
very much in these, because they traditionally go down in price as precipitously as
they gain.
There are good values in stocks now, if you can separate the sheep from the goats.
Oil and energy, I think, will be good for the longer haul.
Certainly there will be others.
I am not confident that the bottom has been hit even yet, but I doubt we
will drop into the 4-5000s
With interest rates at historic lows, money is piling into the world’s bourses at the moment, as usual looking for the best return available.
But that money cannot be in two places at once, and as the stock markets look an increasingly attractive place to be, government bonds, paying ridiculously low yields given the risk of sovereign defaults, look increasingly forlorn.
The truth is that all that has happened is that the debt burden has moved up the food chain from insolvent home owners, via insolvent banks, and has come to rest with insolvent governments. But the debt is still there, and will somehow or other have to be financed.
As the song goes: “who will buy my sweet red roses, who will buy my sweet junk gilts” Not enough people methinks, and certainly not enough Chinese people. If government’ are to sell their bonds then they are going to have to offer very much higher rates of interest with the destructive knock on effect to the wider economy.
Inevitably, with the huge injection of liquidity that governments have pumped into the system, there had to be a reaction somewhere. It turns out that it manifested itself in a stock market rally, and before long, no doubt, in a commodity boom. But the fundamentals have not really changed. It seems to me that the financial system is rather like a company which is teetering on the edge that has miraculously found a new investor to pump fresh money in. For a while, to the outside observer, things look better. The chairman has ordered himself a new car, suppliers have to wait less time for their money, and the broken neon sign on top of the company headquarters has been fixed. But the company’s business operations which brought it to its parlous state, are not fixed, and when the cash injection runs out, normal chaos is resumed, only this time not only is the company bust, but so too is the benevolent investor.
The banks have not fixed their business. The toxic assets that nobody wants are still out there, unrealistically valued. The huge infusions of cash that they have received inevitably give the semblance of new found prosperity, but the huge credit bubble that fuelled their enormous profits will not return for a generation. Even if they had the funds available to lend, who is going to want to borrow at the previous level. In the same way that our parents and grand parents had a total aversion to debt developed as a result of the 1930’s catastrophe, so too will our generation follow. The credit card junky will become a piece of history, and the consumer boom fuelled by the borrowing habit will not return for a very long time.
Hi Martin: I am a foremore GM dealer, I sold my two franchises in 2000 and put the money into my Honda store. This was a very good move for my family and me.I feel very sorry for everyone but the hand writing was on the wall for 20 years. Going forward we have big problems, GM is still an unsatainable business model here is why the two governments and two unions who well run GM well not build a quality car that the public will buy. Also our brillant central planners (who run the gov.) well run gas up to $6-7 thinking this well save Government Motors and they can collect $Billions in more revenue, but they forget that other players sell cars in North America and have them beat on quality and gas mileage i.e. cost of ownership. This is also a metaphor for our wonderful country.Like GM and our states they well now go to Washinton every year and beg for more money.
What are the prospects or probability that the Up-Tic rules will be restored so as to have protection against volatility caused inability of brokers to honor stop loss and limit Forex orders?
If the average American beleives one must stand on his own two feet, the future for our country is bright.
If that average Amercian beleives he will enjoy the benefits of our nation without person cost then the USA is doomed.
Every advantage or benefit has an ofsetting cost. Each individual must be allowed to decide for himself how much effort or cost he is willing to expend in the pursuit of any desired benefit or advantage.
I cannot decide what a particular benefit is worth to you, or vise versa.
If I do not decide for myself, the government will tell me what benefits I will enjoy and tell me what the cost will be. This may sound good to a slacker, but it is unacceptable to anyone who aspires to a productive and prosperous life for himself and his family.
We must be come politically astute, ellect good peopel, and make sure serving in Washington is a temporary job with spartan benefits.
I agree with most of your assessments in the American Economy.
We are obviously in trouble but. . . there is a hope in the horizon and that is:
America will rise and surprise it’s critics once more. . .
Our future is in our resolve to fix what is broken and never lose hope.
I think government is trying to make America fall and unless God intervenes it may very well happen.
All this is a shame and a show of force of arrogance. That goverment is smarter than we and they have the solution. I wonder how much time do we have before we, THE US, implodes. 24 months? 18 months?
What is the end game supposition of the regime ?
Too me it is looking bleak for our nation as a whole.
I di not see that we, the people, are being given the information we need in order to be able to even guess at what is REALLY going on in our government.
We hear a great many stories..most of them differing points of view, and all spoken as absolute fact. We have a “secret” group of “world Billionaires” who now dictate world population, as weel as other unknown matters thet we are not allowed to share. We have a president who determines in the religious capacity for us.
It appears to me, that our ideas for the future of the country lie, not in the constitution, or in what we understand of the past, but in a new plan for our future, but not with us…a path being designed for us, without our help, but not with our input. or any recognition of our needs or desires, or freedoms. The government is taking over private business..What happened to “Free Enterprise”.
And everyone is accepting all of this as “just fine”..! Well..I am not accepting any of this hokum..!
My family arrived on the Mayflower…America runs deep in my blood. No one is big enough to quiet my right to speak out against wrong..! I may go to jail for what I say..I may die under the jail..
but I will die an AMERICAN…
Abraham Lincoln said thet America would never fall from the outside, but might fall from the inside. Well..What do you think we are looking at..?
Where are our REAL leaders..They are out there somewhere..It’s time to find them…or…else.
The economy.? Well..do you want this nation to stand..or don’t you..?Frankly, I do..! We can do it, but in order to do it, we need to regain what we have lost and are losing…SOMEONE DOES KNOW HOW..and I say..elect that person..! KICK ASS..!
Mia Archer..for America..!
Since 2005 I have had 75% of my liquid assets in half gold and half silver, and then 10% following your MDCP guidance. This has more than doubled my liquid assets over these four years of frustration for so many, and I will stay safe under your wings for many years to come. Thank you for your guidance, Martin!
In 1912, General Motors published an advertisement that began “The Penalty of Leadership” and ended, “that which deserves to live, lives!” The people who have no higher skill level than assembly-line work are in for a very bad time in the next couple of decades, but with a population of about 300 million people, about 10 million new cars will be sold or leased each year, and people will still buy, lease, drive and maintain used cars. Life will go on, but without GM and its nameplates. That’s called life, and it does go on. If a “new” GM can go on, good; if it can’t, other nameplates will take its place. If the United States Constitution ends up on (or in) the ashheap of history, life will still goes on. My money is for China to become the world’s dominant economic power for about half a century, with the U.S. as one of its client states, and then it’ll be succeeded by another dominant economic power. America doesn’t have a divine right to worldwide economic dominance — it only lasted from the end of World War II until 2008, and now it’s somebody else’s turn. Entrepreneurs will just have to adjust to changing economic conditions — “that which deserves to live, lives!”
Let’s end this madness by allowing the Federal Reserve to manipulate our lives. If you too would like to see Ben Bernanke squirm and finally discover what the Fed has been up to behind the scenes, call and write your representative and ask that they support the “Federal Reserve Transparency Act H.R. 1207″. God Bless Ron Paul.
I believe the markets will rise on pure hype, manipulation, and false hope until the end of the summer. Then rising rates, surging unemployment, a more serious round two of swine flu will finally collapse this market to deep new lows. If you still want to play long in the market at this stage of the bear rally still, I’m doing it with covered calls in case I wake up one morning and the market is down 10% over-night just because it should be. Good luck and be careful out there.
All this is a shame and a show of force of arrogance and that goverment is smarter than we and they have the solution. I wonder how much time do we have before we, THE US, implodes. 24 months? 18 months?
What is the end game supposition of the regime ?
I live in CA Bay Area. It doesn’t appear to be hit so hard here. I read lots of doom & gloom on websites, but when I get around outside and talk to people it’s no different then the recession of 1991-1993 era. There are people unemployed, but this economic situation still hasn’t really left significant impact on most. I am taking pay cuts at work about 15%. I read a good book called “High Wire: The Precarious Lives of American Families” that preety much describes the vibe here. People are just finding other means of supplimenting their income–sometimes illegal (but that’s business as usual here).
I don’t know how many of your readers are 80+. I have enough in cash and Treasury only money market funds to pay my expenses for the next 8 or 9 years. Should I be wasting my time researching investments? The thing is I sort of enjoy doing it and making a small bet on gold, commodities or currency now and then.
It would be great to hear what you think. I realize your investment advice is directed to those with a little more distant time horizon.
Many Thanks,
Larry Miller
The government is faced with the following prospects
1. Cut spending – highly unlikely
2. Raise taxes – too unpopular (and too much would be required)
3. Turn to socialism or fascism (would probably cause an open rebellion)
4. Borrow and print more money and inflate to cover it all up
Guess which one they’ll choose? The Republicans criticize the Democrats and vice versa, neither one will change the game
Nothing seems to have changed since the days of Caligula and Nero and through to the Weimar Republic and now us. Since we don’t seem to learn our inflationary lessons from history I guess we’re doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
I’m confused about the mixed messages I have received from Weiss. The latest Safe Money recommended shorting Emerging Markets and then you sent out a recommendation to purchase U.S. Global Funds. Those two recommendations seem to be inconsistent.
Geithner is in China, he was taking questions from students, they laughed at him when he answered a question that he thought US and China assets were safe.
I just think the whole financial system/fiat monetary had reached an endstage — the whole thing is a GONER! So, what’s been happening are manifest symptoms of a rotten system larded with greed, deceptions, fraud, gangsterism, …., it’s very deserving to meet its end. Again, It’s a Goner! No matter what they had tried and will try to save it!
I expect to spin off my U.S. Stocks, as I do not own any of the others listed.
Martin,
There is one huge ASSUMPTION beneath everything, and that is the U S country won’t and can’t go under.
But right now we are in the biggest BUBBLE of all time. The U.S> government buying and supporting companies (Fanny, Freddy, Gm, Aig, and many others) and banks ( Jp Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, etc) and all to the tune of about 13 TRILLION dollars. Where is the money coming from ? It isn’t from taxpayers. It is from the printing press. What is backing this printing ? NOTHING. It is air money. No one has earned or saved it. This printing process has worked for many years for us but now when the bubble is burst ( and I think it will happen sooner than later ) There is no economy and there is no money. Money is a fallacy just like the printing press air money, and now we will have to rely on the genuine magnificent heart of the American people.
By the way, your accounts at banks will be stolen just like they were from me in the crash of ‘87. When people are desperate they do desperate things.
Marty Doyle
Lets see, in 1960, three silver dimes bought a gallon of gas, Today three silver dimes buys a gallon of gas, In 1862 Henry firearms sold their first rifle for $40 two gold coins, and Today the similar rifle is $1895, wow two ounces of gold. Protect your savings.
The market will re-crash over the next three months, load up on the shorts. Now we have GM the peoples auto….. you know like in Germany with the VW. Good luck, stay protected and the ammunition dry..
is it time to buy stocks?
I think we should have let GM die on its own instead of propping it up, it will eventually fade away anyway. We should not be propping up all these companies, let them fail, in the short run it will be painful, but in the long run we will be better off. Alexander Hamilton is probably rolling over in his grave as our capitalistic society is slowly turning into a socialistic society. As for current investments I like some of the biotecs as DNDN and a MLP exchange traded fund TYG w/ 8.5% yield. Have a good day all.
I believe that the US will have a very long depression due to the greed of Wall Street and the Feds. The Feds will silently rob us through inflation with their money printing and we will work 16 hour days 7 days a week just to make ends meet. My old boss from Verizon told me, “Gone are the days of the 40 hour work week. To make ends meet and to accomplish our goals in this company you must put in extra hours and effort to do what it takes to get the job done.” This has been the work ethic of struggling companies in a struggling economy. This means companies expect you to do more work and don’t pay you for it which means- they are cutting back! I believe we may not make it through the decade as these are warning signs.
401K, forget about them. They have so much crap in them, you lose out even when the market is up. Some factors pull it down and make you earn less than if you chose winners. Of course, inflation will be so much on the rise to pay back the mountain of debt that even the raises and interest you get from banks or money market accounts won’t cover it. I would say it will be > 11%.
The best protection against this inflation is precious metals and commodities (whatever you can physically get your hands on or else the ETFs or stocks from junior mining or agriculture companies.) As far as stocks, invest in BRIC countries- Brazil, China, India, and Russia. I tried currencies but I didn’t like it because of the risk.
The US news is so bad that they try to sweep it under the rug. The analysts get the reports before the public then cite a number lower than the real reported number and then they say it’s “better-than expected.” For example, the unemployment official number is 9.7% then they say they predicted it at 10% after seeing the official number and then they report that unemployment is “less-than-expected”. This is where all these green shoots are coming from. To me, this is a sign of desperation and a last ditch effort to get suckers to buy stocks. Heck, they even dropped the lowest grades from the Dow Jones Industrial average. If your grades are 20, 60, and 100 and you drop the 20 and replace it with an 80 then of course your average will go up from a 60 to an 80. Wall Street is so full of Bull%^&* that we even had a bull market these past 3 months. We are long overdue for a correction and it needs to happen soon or else we will be in this depression for “longer-than-expected”.
Anyone seen “Soylent Green”?
JD
I think that the market is going to go straight down …thats what this administration wants so they can rebuild us as a marxist/socialist country so i bought so far 8.4 shares of DXD its a double inverse etf
Key Question: In the shorter term (6 months to 1 year) will we have continued (and even worsening) deflation before we have run-away inflation, or will we have inflation followed by deflation? In all cases, ultimately, I believe we will have a severe case of inflation.
I am very concerned at this juncture. I often wonder will my Social Security survive the ordeal.
you seem very bearish and bleak about USA which yu have been insisting on since quite
a few months, and yet the markets have rallied very strongly since March 9. Inspite of GM’s bankruptcy yesterday, the market closed very high . the Dow is only fractionally down from year-to-date, whereas the other 2 indices are up. All other markets including European , which is beyond logic, are much higher year-to-date. The impending further downturn does not still appear to be happening. the investors do not have so much patience to wait for 3 months for the forecast to come to reality. If Dow has gone from 7300 to 8800 since you predicted further downturn, and now if it goes back to 7000, it will not carry the same happy memory.
you had also predicted stronger dollar , but since the stock markets did not go down, the dollar went weaker, …….although very rightly gold has gone up.
I am long dollars against Euro and suffering heavy losses. I wish to seek advice from you if one should seek exit at this level of 1.43 , though i feel that Euro gains are highly overextended both fundamentally and technically but it is the fear that now is gripping me. Please offer guidance.
Regards,
Kishin.
The USA will not survive, massive societal collapse will lead to civil war, and international subjugation at the hands of foreign economic and eventually military invaders. So sad so bleak, but a new dawn will open in which we will have learned some lessons, it always does!
My opinion is quite simple. This past year we elected our first Communist President. We didn’t need China or Russia to conquer us. We did it to ourselves. I doubt strongly that there will be a Presidential election in 2012. For this and other reasons, I believe paper money is dying, dying, dead. Commodities with intrinsic values are the only things to own and hold.
Bananna Republic management tactics, will lead to Bananna Republic results. The 536 elected (misrepresentatives) officials in DC, our President and Congress, obviously have no concern about ever paying back the mountains of irresponsible debt obligations they have inncurred. As long as buyers of our Treasuries continue to support this agenda we will continue to dig in deeper. There is no mathmatical way to pay this money back, unless the dollar is substantially devalued, and even then it may still be impossible. This country would be well served if Treasury investors would stop buying US Treasuries and perhaps that would restore some common sense to our elected officials.
Blaine Savage
SLC UT
First, I would like to thank Martin for providing people like me the tools to weather this crisis. I first heard Martin speak at the New Orleans Investment Conference in 2003. He has been correct at every turn of the US and Global Economy.
Precious Metals will most likely be the best place to be. Commodities will most likely follow. Most will rather own hard assets than the promise of payment. Thanks again.
It is just a matter of time. At one time I thought holding on to my dollar (cash) would be safe, but nmow I know even that is no longer true. This is not just about economice conditions, but rather man’s inability to control their greed. Civilizations have come and gone, and one day so will ours, but this time “its a global thing”. I’ve taught my children to hope and pray for the best but consider and perhaps expect the worse. I think we (USA) will all need to learn how to be hungry, like so many other people in this world.
America will survive.
Interest rate will go up and dollar going to devaluate but Mr. Bernake going to play hockey game and make goal either in mid August or in December i.e. The day US govt. took charge of wall street. He is going to bring same Dow Index. and then make exit. After that market will fall and come back by own.
Gold and Currency are good play but Mr.Bernake keep under control by Oil price and some other manipulated data.
Vijay
My question ,, how do we as citizen make it (survial)? We need a bail out. I think the white house (DC) need to rethink how and what they are doing when it comes to spending money. Is there any money for colleges/education for our youth?
i work for a living so i watch the stock market, not play in it. but investors are going to drive oil back up. that will drive everything else up. inflation sets in and the working class suffer. my wife and i will grow a garden, can and dehydrate all that we grow. i wish i could have bought gold when i first saw this coming. i would still do it if i had money to spare.
I would think the precious metals and Asian markets would be the most secure right now, but then who would’ve thought Grandpa’s GM stock would be worthless!
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
What is happening now in America has never happened before anywhere on the earth at any time. Nothing even similar, not even The Great Depression.
The Obama adminstration’s destruction of the basis for commercial law in the US by their actions in regard to the AIG bonuses has undermined the entire capitalist system in this country.
Why would anyone in their right mind invest in anything that even vaguely depends on a contract with any company in the US? And the US economy is still the strongest in the world at this time so all other economies are, for now, dependent on it to some degree.
It’s not so much an issue of GM or AIG or Citi or any one company’s troubles as it is about the “solution” being applied and the method of applying that “solution.”
I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore, Toto.
The United States as we know it is economically, morally and spiritually bankrupt. We need to forgive all the debt and start all over. We need to elimate the current federal government and revised the government based upon the 28 principles of our founding fathers. We are a failed nation. We truly need to term limit all elected offices to one term only. No more career politicians and bureaucrats who think they know better. Regarding education no tenure for college professors and public school teachers. We also need to elimate the unions as well. No more social security, medicare and medicade, no universal health care for all. We need to closed our borders and not allowed any more immigration into our country for at least a decade.
I am an artist. I know little about the financial markets other than what my common sense tells me. I sold my investment property two years ago at a peak because I watched people leveraging their equity to buy marble countertops with gold taps and new forty thousand dollar vehicles. I watched people vote in a government that spent billions on war adventures twice and wondered how long they could afford to do that. I can’t help but crack a smirk when I hear investment councilors say that “no one saw this coming”.
Even after all this has happened, governments still think that they can spend their way out of this. It boggles the mind.
Dr. Weiss, I started to deleate your letter before I ever read it because I have so little to invest, I can’t see it mattering, plus I know very little about the market, if anything. However I do know whar rezileance meanseven if I may have misspelled it. This week I’m supposed to come into some money to buy a car. I want a Cadillac. I probably won’t get enough money to buy a new one, but I want one none the less. I know how I have made, won gambling and lost millions over the last twenty years. Things look pretty bleak for me right now, but I’m not willing to give up. I’m 55, and feel and look half that. Every month I have to buy medications that cost a bundle, until I stumbled upon Rite Aid. Rite Aid is the only pharmacy I’ll go to if at all possible. We, as Americans, in the capitalist society have to be a little greedy and hungry foor more to survive. Rite Aid on the other hand charged me close to a hundred dollar savings on 2 name brand medications. I called every pharmacy within fourty miles of where I lived, they all had raised their prices dramatically in one month. I was prepared to take a hit from them too, but because I became a member of a Rx Savings Card, I got a great break on 2 name brand med’s. I was also surprized that one of the medications in a liquid form was factory sealed and full strength. Wallgreens on the other hand has prices that should be illegal, they’re back at the same thing that had them suspended from selling name brand med’s because they were charging insurance companies for name brand and giving their coustomers generic. There Is a voluntery price match program most pharmacies go by, e.g. if I know a store twenty miles down the road charging 300 and you’re charging 335, you’ll match it to keep from losing a coustomer. Wallgreens won’t hear of that. If General Moters could somehow, even if they lost money for a couple years did something similar, it could still possibly come back, somehow someway! Pharmacys know people will starve before they will go without their medications. I will wear old but clean cloths to drive a Cadillac, not to show off, but but because I know it’s the safest car on the road, and On-Star, only a fool would drive a car without it. How can we as Americans come together and save General Moters as though it were a cat falling fromm the 22 ND floor of a building? If is a big word, but if every man, woman, and child in America started putting money into G M, even if it meant we were going to take a loss at first, and if G M’s emploies agreeded to take a big pay cut, the most highly improbable thing on Earth could happen. And Uncle Sam needs to start fining pharmacys that are robbing people blind and use that money alone, it would be enough to save GENERAL MOTERS. I’m just a dreamer, but you’ve got me going today. Nobody would listen to a fool like me, but you they would listen to. Just a thought Dr Weiss, but I know who’s crippling the economy,at least my economy anyway. Thank You for listening. DrMike
Martin;
All the responses echo my thoughts. But, will the government accept the TARP money back from banks or will they stonewall repayment with policy and hurdles. This will be the signal of how bad it will get with Nationalization. Look for the signs of control in every facet of our lives from lightbulbs to laughter.
It just amazes me how ‘random’ events, from ‘out of the blue’, seem to promote stated Council On Foreign Relations agenda items. Honestly, I am less concerned about the fate of the ‘republic’, the Dollar, or our ‘values’, than I am about the fate of HUMANITY… as the CFR proceeds along their oft stated depopulation agenda (‘Sustainable Development’ – NSSM 200).
to my views this thing is sure to happen as due to rising costs & constants decrease in sales
GM should have to take steps to increase in sales & investment opportunities should be increased not by heavy leveraging there should be corporate restructuring, equity valuation & analysis
financial reporting should be strong of company
company is highly leveraged and due to leveraging they have increased in business & financial risk
company should go for investment opportunities
alternative investments in fixed income securities, futures trading of bonds, emerging & global investments but should consider interest rate,exchange rate & price risks as there will be high translation & transaction exposures
The way I read my Bible, our circumstances will get much worse. I lived through the Great Depression- this one is going to be worse (In my opinion) The bible speaks of people throught their silver and gold to the bats and the moles- figuratively that is what has been happening far too long. I have been investing in silver and gold for many many years.- Perhaps I can ride through some of this inflation. But I think we can also expect our wonderful Gov’t to confiscate these- when times get even worse.
The decison to move into the UK into service industries at the expense of manufacturing was made in the mid 80’s. So I see all of this as part of a long term plan that has either failed or come to fruition.
The Chancellor says the bust was unforseen. Fred Harrison foresaw it in 1990 and sent his book – Boom Bust, house prices, banking and the great depression of 2010 – to the Treasury. So they did know what was coming.
The question is this; is this credit crunch an accident of time and negligence or is it the result that someone intended? The designed increase in debt, facillitated by a credit card culture, followed by an orchestrated collpase of the banking sector by a simple rule change on liquididty ratios, suggests to me that there was indeed an attempt at an ochestrated rip off aimed at impoverishing the many for the benefit of the favoured few. Let us not forget that Brown took the pension funds because it was “prudent to do so”.
So we must ask ourselves, was all of this part of a clever attempt to encourage other economies to produce hard goods whilst the favoured few in the banking economies, litterally conned everyone into a new form of poverty. If so, do they now plan to finish the job with a massive inflation campaign, posdinbly involving deliberate hyper-inflation, to balance the books, ( at the real expense of the Chinese et al?) in a way that further divides our society as well. If so ,what furture do they envisage for themselves and everyone else? A master / slave relationship perhaps?
What is the real reson why it was arranged this way??
It seems like most of our manufactoring was delibertly sent out of this country. Why is the big question. America has lost too many jobs, period. In 1967 when I graduated from high school, I had many jobs, with several good companies to choose employment. In this area, Middletown, Ohio, there is literally no choices now. The middle class numbers have fallen, and poor people just survive, and do not buy new cars, etc.
Ronald Reagan wanted a service type economy, and maybe he now has his wish.
What’s really alarming is that most people have a hard time visioning how far the U.S. is in debt. If you ask the average citizen what we should do to solve this they don’t have an answer because they think that things will just work out because America has always overcome adversity before. My answer to those is we are in way deeper than ever before and we are not in control of our own destiny due to the immense relianceon other countries to keep us afloat by financing our debt. When our taxes are increased and inflation is out of control please people don’t compain it will be too late- time is running out!
Thank you for your accurate analysis and insight into the current world financial turmoil.
In the midst of the current volatile conditions I am keeping out of US, UK and European stocks and concentrating heavily on cash and Far East funds, which have been showing very nice consistent returns over the last 7 months. I believe any uptake in the world economic picture, is going to be led by China and the Far East economies, long before we will be able to see a more stable picture in the US, UK and European economies. Like you, I believe the worst is still to come, so I am keeping out until further notice!
HI MARTIN,
AS WRITER MARK MENTIONED, IS THE GOVERNMENT AND WALL STREET,BANKS IN COLLUSION IN PROPPING EVERYTHING UP?
I believe the most secure area to invest your money is in real estate. If you can purchase at today’s bottomed out prices just think of what you can sell for in an improved market with rising inflation. The dollar is shrinking therefore it is going to take alot more of them to create purchasing power.
I don’t see how America can survive when the dollars are being
printed like Monopoly money, Federal Reserve selling bonds,
buying bonds. supporting Iraq, so many other countries.
We have China’s Treasury Bills to repay with Interest.
Does China almost own America now?
As President Obama is for Abortion, against God’s Commandment
of “Thou shalt not kill”, will Our Lord help President Obama,
I am afraid to answer that one.
I look foreard to your knowledge, Martin Weiss
Dear Martin ,
Though I am British I have been following your warnings and advice avidly. Every thing you have warned about and predicted seems to have happened and though things are a little different in England I use your advice and warnings to stay clear of trouble here where the problems appear similar. I think that it is not just the American people who have a lot to thank you for with your experience and uncanny knowledge of the markets.
God Bless
John
Yes, the U.S. Economy will survive.
From an outside point of view, Canada, it appears that the US can build just about anything but if the budget is without limits. Can the US industry build products like small good cars and be competitive? I am not sure.
I beleive that the US economy will really progress if companies like the “New GM” look at the present and future needs and desires of the new (25 years old) and retiring generation (70 years old) and offer small and inexpensive good cars (a Chineese Tata) before China floods the US and Canadian markets.
Inovate, with a price advantage. If everyone (Unions and Management) push in the same direction, it could and should be done. Time will tell.
Note: Thank you Dr. Weiss for your work and for keeping very helpful people on your staff. A phone call to them is always a very positive experience. Thank you.
Jean J. Pichon
Martin – I understand clearly the concern about the US Governments debt and the ramifications it has on the future. That being said, it appears that there are signs of a recovery and with both India and China working with the US, I feel more confident. If I would have invested in some of the reverse ETFs like you had recommended, I would have lost a fortune. Please let me know if you are beginning to change your position with respect to the economy.
nervous – scared — If government fails — goes bust – what happens to all the liquid assets you have been recommending we move to ie 3 month T-bills
Is there an alternative safe haven — maybe some other currency in a more stable economy
I was thinking CDN – but they have exposure to GM and some debt —
I don’t want to put it in gold –
if US does go bust – with hugh exposures to Medicare, social security looming and the bailouts — what is the timeline – is there away to take advantage and still have safety liquity
Hi Dr Weiss. You have covered almost all potential financial money pits in your forecasts- THANK YOU. But you have not to my knowledge commented about market market funds linked to brokerage accounts or the brokerage accounts themselves….are these monies safe with the brokerage insurance of SIPC??
My thoughts are that the only thing that will be worth anything for survival will be your experiences in life such as: Helping people, or that knowledge of electronics, computer sciences, mechanical abilities such as doing repair work. Such as in doing barter with others in trade.
There is a day coming that such abilities may be the only differences of whether you have food upon the table or not. Additionally education and those abiliites that it affords will dictate as to how you and your familys survive or not.
This is a country in Moral breakdown. All of this is caused by a change in nature of Americans, caused by an internal propaganda attack of over 50 years. Did Americans lend money to people who could not pay years ago? Did we buy houses when simple math reveiled we could not make the payments? Did we live above our means with credit cards and home equity loans? Were our hero’s Paris Hilton and Britney Spears?
Did companys gamble with complex financal instraments instead of good products in order to make money. Do people want independent strength anymore, or someone to give them something? People could think back then and had morals, now we do not. Until that changes, no, we will not survive.
There is an absolute plan designed to make America fail. We could not have a one world government, a new world order or a one world currency if America were the world leader while maintaining it’s strength, values and freedoms. Consequently, this must be destroyed and must all come to an end and it will. Sad to see it but this is what needed to be done to create a new world order. A world not under the rule of the jungle but under the rule evil men for money, power and self-gain at the expense of humanity.
Dr Martin,
Can you please tell when will bear market rally end? According to economist they
think stock market is going to robust rally this year.What is your opinion about
this. I have some energy stocks in Canada which is paying me Dividend of 12%
should I sell them or keep it.
Thanks for What you do for American people.
Regards
Capt Sandeep Sharma
History will be “repeated” only in Phantom form. Reality will be a new experience of which we have little idea. The key to what will happen, I believe, is peoples attitude and willingness to “get on with life”. So much of what we are experiencing in ‘downturn echonomics’ is due to the constant hammering by all media naysayers and doomsday prognosticators. People were ‘bit’ by ignorance in the 30’s and today isn’t much different. The main thing they share is greed. Everyone wants to ‘make a buck’ and don’t care who gets stepped on in the process. They also do not consider the consequences of their actions! (Nor do they care!).the ‘outcome of the economics mess’ will be determined by our younger adults. If they wake up and face the reality of the situation quickly, there will be a much quicker recovery. The passing of every day will have a great bearing on ‘recovery time’. This is 50% (or more,) a mental situation!
We are witnessing the fall of Rome (America) I’m bearish and I’m positioning my portfolio accordingly this bailout bubble will pop and when it dos watch out below. l
Martin
will the economy survive: YES, but a much more regulated an government controlled economy for at leat the next 4 years
Will interest rates rise, I look back at 1980 Reagonomics when prime was 20%, CDs were at 15% inflation was 20plus %, so given what is going on now, I believe we will see a spike even as much as 1980 before the 4th qtr 09.
Where am I investing, GOLD, Treasuries, Mun bonds.
at 67 years old looking for more stability than aggressive growth
my 2 cents worth
thanks
RW
I AM INTERESTED IN INVESTING BUT AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT WHERE AND HOW. ALSO I WOULD LIKE TO CHANGE BANKS, AS I AM BANKING WITH BANK OF AMERICA RIGHT NOW. PLEASE ADVISE. THANK YOU.
We the people of the United States of America, need to stop Look at our Country
Think in the words WE THE PEOPLE and OUR COUNTRY. It was no government body
that built this country, it was the PEOPLE. It has always been the sacrifices of the people.
We have government to assist the People in maintaining structure, not changing the
structure that is the back bone of our country. Our Constitution has stood the test of
time and it will with no interference continue to hold up for the majority. We need to
support our commerce, our businesses. The grass is not greener on the other side of
the fence. Radical thinking and behavior is bringing our country down. I am very
opposed to (Modern) ideals, or the lack there of. Basics Lets get back to Basics
There would most likely be less out of the box thinking if it were not seen as the
new way to behave, (let’s see if being a rebel works) We can not expect all people will
always think alike, we don’t need to applaud radical thinking that brings business and
morals in our country into harms way. Those who love this country need to stand up
and be counted with out the threat of harm. We have come a long way and have a
long way to go. We must not bow to liberal thinking it can not override all we have
worked so hard to build for generations to come.
This stage is considered dangerous for that I do not have any idea about what is required to do for profit or investment, and what the next step and how
Please help.
Thanks.
Is Gold and Silver the only safe bet left?
In our efforts to make the world a democracy. We forgot that we should be making everything and selling it to them instead of us setting them up to sell it to us. As it turns out all our enemies we have had in the past we have helped to kick our butts now. Remember when all the photos from China were people riding bicycles in the streets? Well thats probably us soon, while they drive G.M. China Buicks and look at pictures of us riding bicycles in the streets. By saving a few bucks sending all our capabilities to another country and not caring about fellow Americans and only about the bottom line. We got sold down the river many years ago. Our country is weak getting weaker. I just aired up the tires on my bicycle…oh yeah….it was made in china.
The government and the stock market make it awful tempting to think everything is turning around and the future is looking brighter;then I read these newsletters and realize the reality contained within-is being buried by the masters of spin. (government and the stock market professionals)
How does this nation create new wealth? How do we create those economic engines that replace the old horses of years’ past? When the old horses start to die-we are all hit in the pocketbook, and we are all placed in the forefront of economic disaster….A disaster that has NO quick solutions.
Labor Unions have had their day, time to get back to reality.
The approprite question is what will the surviving USA look like? We are resource poor except for Land (food and trees), Natural Gas and technology. We will able to buy fewer natural resources from the world so we will have far fewer of them. Our homes will be dramatically warmer in the summer and cooler in the winter. We will drive and travel less. We will build much smaller homes. Many, many many will return to rural settings to raise food (fortunately they will be able to keep in touch with communications technology). We will sell the world technology for the goods we import one for one no more credit. Therefor on a relative basis we will import far fewer good and have a lower standard of living. Will this happen dramatically in a few short years or over decades? -NO ONE KNOWS, TIME WILL TELL
Although my real estate appraisal business in Austin, Texas is currently very good due to the low interest rates, I am extremely concerned going forward. I believe the president is economically clueless, and has the instincts of a socialist. At age 50, I have serious concerns about my future retirement, and I don’t expect the government to provide it. I must make my own way, and figure I have 20 years to get myself situated.
I retired from active duty in the USAF in 1970 after having served 20 years in the hope of living in freedom in a wonderful country; however, just a few short years ago when our congress went nuts – each party vying to exterminate the other rather than keeping an eye on our government – I began to lose hope. Now I know that our congressional representatives have only themselves in mind when they THINK, if they think at all. Our capital no longer exists and I believe that only precious metals will suffice as mediums of exchange in the very near future.
I should have panned for gold instead of trying to protect those who represent us today.
It looks like the apocalypse and armegeddon. I am investing in canned goods, ammunition, beehives, egg laying chickens, grain, stored foods, etc.
I think it will be several years before US Treasury yields increase substantially. A Japanese deflation is possible in the US where they don’t increase for decades.
Hola Martin,
You often speak to the choir.
I’m an expat with many assets offshore.
I actually have two separate estates – one in the US and one here.
At the moment neither will be subject to estate taxes.
I’m currently (since late Feb) long in the Aussie dollar.
No longer pay US income nor US property taxes, but collect (max) SSC, and later this year, MC.
Only a 2 hour flight to IAH or DFW for any health care.
Instead of our $19,000. Dallas property taxes in 2004, we pay $432. annually on our 6500 ft sq house.
Live like royalty with housekeeper, gardener, and cook.
Unfortunately for my (3) children and (2) grandchildren, I think the US is hopeless!
ALM
In the near furture,
Metals down
Market down
Dollar down
Also
Safe Money Portfolio has been down a lot. Will it recover? I have $100,000 in it and holding.
Contrairion Portfolio – where are the stops??
Our economic problems are the result of debt caused by the belief we have held for decades, namely, that we can spend our way to prosperity and always pay for everything with cheaper money. We have relegated this power to our federal government. It isn’t difficult to predict what we have practiced and chosen as our future state. Socialism and our currency is the effect, our vote is at cause.
I first would like to tell you how much I enjoy, appreciate and respect your articles and opinions! I think more men like you should be running our country not the clowns currently running it into the ground. I guess that statement foreshadows my opinions on where this Poor Proud Country is headed. I feel the lazy left and blissfully unaware “Republicans” (I consider myself to be a conservative but don’t particularly feel tied to the previous “conservative party of Republicans) have let apathy, greed and self centered blindness lead us into allowed leadership by men/groups that didn’t have America’s best interest at heart but rather filling their own pocketbooks. Bleeding just enough cream off to the general public that wouldn’t be aware of the Socialistic noose being tightened around their necks. I think the move towards killing America and creating a more unionized social entity started with the first Bush administration and continued until the obvious hangman arrived in office now. Look at who we ran for President????? McCain????????? Please that man can’t put two sentences together and make sense. There is so much more at play here than we even can begin to know. I think guns, gold and dry goods are the best investment in our future because its going to take a revolution to turn things around take America away from the World Finance Forces/Wall Streen and return her to the true American People. One more question though??? How did a radical muslim “black” man with duel citizenship and ZERO experience become the President of a Nation founded on Christian beliefs and principals? God Bless and Good Luck!
I appreciate your valued insight and all posts, emails, and video broadcasts are watched read and valued tremendesly, we live in a period of great uncertainty and fear …. On a lighter note … i want to learn chinese and become a boat person and row to china
What I do not understand is this market rally; both it’s intensity and it’s longevity.
There appears to be no underlying strength but some say the simple fact of all the money being created is the reason for this season of the market inflating. Can that be true?
I am a board-certified pediatrician in Orange County, California.
We are seeing families being thrown out of their homes in foreclosures.
We are seeing children and families being made homeless.
We are seeing huge commercial real estate projects (50,000 to 100,000 square feet in size) going down in Irvine and other OC cities.
The instability is not improving.
Commercial businesses are unable to stabilize revenue and operations while inflationary pressures are so heavy. Our own medical doctors in this area are unable to maintain their programs due to absent reimbursement on claims by insurers. These same medical insurers are backed by AIG securities. The media does not understand how severe this situation is.
Yesterday, we received a notice from Anthem/Blue Cross that the want all doctors to request permission from them to send patients to heart specialists for special procedures. As a board-certified pediatrician, this decision by Blue Cross is highly suspect. Infants with new heart murmurs need immediate echocardiograms and EKG’s in order to evaluate for the presence of heart defects that can kill the child in a few hours time. Blue Cross/Anthem’s decision is equal to a death sentence for any child born with these conditions which are seen throughout California.
I think it is obvious why the health insurers are being forced to take these steps. Their business model is not economic stable. The backing of AIG on the premium defaults is unstable. The investments these companies made are themselves unstable.
In this area, two major hospitals have closed. ER’s are closing and people are going to start dying of preventable diseases.
There is a direct correlation between the health and the wealth. The erosion of wealth in our nation over the past two years appears to be creating instability in provision of health care to all people, regardless of economic status.
I am very concerned about the looming possibility of hyperinflationary pressure adversely impacting physician contracting. We can not maintain our care to the children and infants if the cost of supplies and human resources is not predictable.
Martin,
I’ve been getting your e-mails for a while. To be honest I haven’t done much with it as I don’t have much to invest but I feel the window you open up to look at what’s going on under the surface is invaluable information. Thank you.
My answer to your question comes from a military background and from living in the middle east for the last several years (duing the school year) as a civilian volunteer with a non-profit education organization.
Here is my answer: “If we don’t get the bulk of our military back on our soil ASAP and continue in intense indigeonous training cycles to defend this country and our constitution, none of this financial stuff is going to matter. If we do get them back here, we have a chance and at that point we should bite the bullet and receed from the world markets in certain areas and get back to the basics. As much as I believe in our missions overseas, we must abandon them in large scale and rely on special ops or long-range and large scale destruction of infrastructure. If America goes down, all of it is going down. I don’t think any of us can imagine the evil that would prevail if or when this happens.”
Sincerely,
Doug Bryant
I have lived most of my life so my concern is not for me, but for the children and grandchildren of America. I am well aware of the forthcoming hyper-inflation fueled by worthless dollars. At this time it appears hopeless to be able to control the out-of-control spending by our President and Congress. Unfortunately, it began with the Bush 43 administration. The best thing which should happen to us is for China and the rest of the world to cease buying our treasuries. Maybe that would end the recklessness of our government.
Yes, I do think America is suffering, and even more so at the hands of the banking industry. I truly believe the banks should not have been given all that money without some accountability. Each American could have received a check and spent it more wisely than they have. They are just interested in making more money. Some of the banks even went out to try and buy more banks and expand, rather than taking care of their own backyard, so to speak. They are not helping those that put their money in the banks. They have tightened regulations even further and are loaning less money than ever. I have not seen interest rates drop at the bank, even though the prime is very low. A banker told me that the interest rate goes along with risk and that is why some of the customers’ rates are so high. That says to me, let’s keep raping the small guy, not help him out at all, just try to break him and take everything he has.
Americans are disgusted, disgruntled, defeated and are working hard to just survive and take care of their own families. I do applaud the President and his team for trying and I hope he can help save this country from Bankruptcy. GM should have filed the big “B” at the beginning of the year and then they would have been back on the road to recovery by now. It’s easier to play the game and get all the money you can before.
Any little business or individual would not have been able to do that.
SURVIVAL IS ABSOLUTE. MANAGING THE PROBLEMS IS ANOTHER THING .
THE TOOL BOX KIT IS EMPTY. THE ALL IN MANTRA IS IN THE PROCESS. THE U.S. IS BUYING TIME , AND BORROWING FROM WHOMEVER IT CAN TO MAINTAIN THE CAPITALISTIC MODEL AND ITS FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE MORE BLOODSHED ALONG THIS GAME . AS ALWAYS IT IS MORE THEN EVER A MATTER OF THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST AND THE MOST CLEVER . INSIDERS OF THE WASINGTON MANOUVERS WILL BENEFIT THE MOST . ANY WONDER ?
Being older Americans, we are indeed concerned about America, the viability of the dollar, price of energy/commodities of all sorts, food, etc. We are staying in energy and natural resource funds, as well as cash. The cash is a big concern since we see the very real possibility that it will be devalued. We own our home and we have seen a considerable value decrease from the purchase price. However, it is less expensive for us to own in California right now as opposed to renting. Thank you for your newsletters and your on-going guidance. S. Simonson, Corona, CA
Are the people brain dead? Can’t they see where we are headed??? Hope they wke up and put a halt to it !!!!!!!
Will America survive?
Of course America will survive. It will be at a lower level of economic output, though as consumer spending cannot support 70+% of GDP any longer. In the face of rising unemployement, lower wages to those who remain employed, and the end of the home cash machine will keep the American consumer from recovering anytime soon.
How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
I am not concerned at all about inflation overall as an important piece is missing from the inflation puzzle: aggregate demand. That should remain well under capacity for some time to come. On the other hand, a relatively weak dollar will spur some commodity inflation.
Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
On US stocks, I am bullish on BA and GE, select ‘green’ companies as well as agriculture. I remain bullish on Eastern Europe and Russia as well as Canada and China. I really like global agriculture companies as well as non-precious metals (copper, nickel, steel) as signs of economic stabilization begin to appear.
P.S. GM was not able to make a profit since 2004 even in the face of record auto sales, not because of unions, recession, etc., but because of poor management. They let foreign automakers essentially take over the car market so they could focus on trucks and SUVs. When demand shifted back towards cars, they were not ready but shoul’ve been.
It is not a question of “will we survive?” but what we, as country, will look like when we come out of this as either as Obama and crew want us to be or what his succssor decides. It is obvious that Obama crew wants to destroy the constitution more than it has already been destroyed or negated and rebuild the country with strong centeral government that controls most things- like Chicago does now. That is his training and I would be good to expose that system to the rest of the US.
I travel by RV and the country will have a hard time complying with Obama’s dream.
Dr. Weiss:
I would be very much interested to open a bank account in a safer country than the US. Do you have any suggestions?
Gerda
Maybe I’m missing something?
Todays headline:
Pending home sales rise 6.7 percent in April
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pending-home-sales-rise-67-apf-15412014.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
From NAR website:
http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/5c9013804e3eae35811fc11daf16ff2d/REL0904EHS.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=5c9013804e3eae35811fc11daf16ff2d
The EV1 was an innovation and GM was the first ‘large’ manufacturer to venture down this route. The car turned out to be robust and popular, yet it was scrapped in 1999, with much of the remaining stock going through the crusher. Its replacement was one of the biggest 4 wheel drive gas consuming cars on the road. It appears that someone with a lot of clout in the oil industry, who was about to loose a lot of money, if the electric car had taken off was able to influence GM to make a 180 degree turn almost back to the kind of car it would have built back in its hay day in the 1950’s. There is one thing for certain and that is change and GM failed to change! Follow the money! Who stood to make the most money when the EV1 was scrapped? If a companies success is judged only by its profits, the laws of the universe tell us that each product has an optimum point and output and that going beyond this point, as a capitalist system forces the manufacturer to do, can only result in a cheaper product or production. PERHAPS sustainability, service to the community and quality of product ought to be some of the new ways to judge success in a world of fast depleting resources?
GM is now under control of the USG and the UAW. We the taxpayers bought 60% of a failed company. A company controlled by the UAW, that is mostly responsible for failure of the US auto industry, and the USG that has never managed anything well and has never considered profit as a motive for anything. Then we have a federal court deciding that unsecured employees have a higher precedence in a bankruptcy than secured bond holders. Can it be long before GM has to have more Government bailout to survive this insanity. Our current leadership in DC will insure America goes the way of GM, as the Chinese are not going too bail us out.
I don’t see brutal honesty in the financial news like you have displayed for years. I am a God fearing senior that thinks America’s press is hiding behind what liberal editors and journalists must print or say to get paid. There is much more economic shock that America is facing and the continued deception will bankrupt the next generation.
While I’ve followed your advice and have holdings only in select ETF’s and gold stocks, I’m still extremely uneasy about the economy. I am a baby boomer, on the verge of retirement, but I’m actually afraid to retire. My 89 year old mother-in-law supplemented her income with her dividends from CITI bank. She would not sell – very stubborn. Now her shares are worth nothing, and she is very bitter, mostly blaming George Bush. These are scary, unchartered waters. I don’t think my boat ($$$) is big enough anymore.
Martin,
I think the things to be in are gold, oil+gas and the Canadian $. Please comment.
Eric Cunningham
this is a critical time indeed…trying to save the remnants of an obsolete system with the same old methods(particularly under the guise of change) is accelerating the inevitable collapse and exacerbating it’s chaotic outcome…i’m not an expert by any stretch but investing in gold coins(not bullion- as it’s taxed) and collectables (vintage antiques, art etc)of tangible long term value is a good way to go….there seems to be a bit more stability within the Chinese economy as well…beyond that, get your mattresses ready..meantime keep the love and light..
GM bankruptcy is a tragedy. However, I believe GM was not building cars most Americans wanted to buy, and GM management failed to innovate and control costs. I think Americans have a right to be angry about executive pay and bonuses — even as they drive their companies into bankruptcy. Even union pay and benefits had gotten way out of line relative to most working people — where they are payed 90% of their pay to sit at home during plant shutdowns. Maybe I’m wrong, but I am still optimistic about the resiliency of Americans, our businesses, our innovation, and our future. Yes, we are going through a steep recession that may last for some time yet. But, I still believe we are the best nation in the world and we will come out of this. If we pull together, I think our people and our country can overcome this.
Given what you think might be coming down the road, what should we think about substatial savings we might have that are in cash? What would an alternative like agriculture land be and what will it do during a significant down turn?
Also, I’m curious to know what has already become of GM’s stock?
I would have like to join your web meeting but I’m behind a firewall at work.
I don’t understand Treasury bills, notes or bonds. What is the right time to get in and how do you know they won’t pay off with inflated dollars? Thank you for your time.
p.s. I am invested in low end rent houses.
Martin, I,m in the process of closing out all of our investments and moving the money to American Century to buy Treasury-only money market funds, as recommended in your book.
Do you believe this is still the most secure place for my life’s savings?
Please reply ASAP.
Thanks, Wayne Glass
I believe that both our short and long-range futures look very bleak!
1- If things continue as is, there is no way in which many Americans can be on the winning side in any national election.
2- The larger (doomsday) problem which we have is with the devaluation of our currency. Even if we have dollars, will they be worth anything?
I have the same questions and concerns that have been succinctly stated by Chris Rivers!! Please answer his questions. Also, my savings are invested in an Annuity which has lost 25% of its original value. Should I cash it in now and take my loss? If so, WHERE do I put the cash? Is anything safe? What is going to happen to Real Estate?
I think you are being too pessimist.If you have been following the Indian markets you would know they have gone up by abt 80 per cent since March.Yesterday when G M was preparing for the chapter 11 the Indian markets were up abt 3 per cent.The G M india said we are not affected and you are asking if America next.?
NO WAY.
Things will come around sooner or later. I suggest take a holiday and come to India for a few days.
God bless
Amir
Martin,
There are four industry segments I believe will do well going forward:
(1) Oil; production is way down and demand will increase until substitute energy is on line.
(2) Infrastructure companies in which the Federal government is investing large sums of money.
(3) Water
(4) Wind
Best regards,
Jim
I work in High Tech in the Software Industry. Most of my friends are quite bullish now …. with the Trillions of Dollars being thrown into the Economy through QE that eventually banks will be forced to lend again and the consumer to consume again .. however, if the inflation comes into place, then our cost of living will go up .. but all this depends on the psychology that is created .. the good times are back or there are bad times ahead … personally, I feel that by Monetizing our debt … printing money out of thin air is a gamble but it is necessary … classic chicken and egg story … we need to start somewhere … however, the market is rather cruel … I think that in the end we are going to get a massive rally into next year starting from now (with a correction in Fall) … everyone is going to feel that everything is back to normal and then watch out below … I see no reason why the DOW wonly hit 12,000 by Spring next year and Nasdaw 2400 …. then it will all implode … we go down 50% …. and THAT will be the buying opportunity of your life time ….
Dear Martin ~
Based on what’s reasonably and evidently forseeable at present, how long into the future does it appear likely (probable) that major inflation will come to dominate the currently prevalent deflationary conditions? And how soon, after this, will the country begin to experience a multi-sector systemic breakdown? Finally, what plausibly probable counter-measures loom (economic, social, political) that can prevent or at least thwart this economic and social disaster? [I know this is a crystal-ball kind of question, but any opining on your part would be appreciated!!!]
Thanks,
Jerry Holtenhoff
I have given up on all US stocks except for SLV. I purchased 20 contracts @ 2.20, since silver is scarce and is hopefully going higher.I have an expiration date of Jan 2010 (Leaps) I also have invested in currencies w/ EVERBANK and so far so good. That is the extent of my investments. Robert Griffin
Taking a very different tack, it seems to me as long as far more people around the world are struggling to get to America than there are people here wanting to leave, America is the world’s best bet now and for the future.
Recent ecomic turmoil, if properly heeded and integrated into the national psyche, should be a realaity check for America. For example, “Watch the amount of debt you carry, don’t buy “stuff” you don’t really need, think local (and small) and accept Bob Dylan’s lyrics as gossple: “The Times They are a’changing.”
For instance, don’t waste tax dollars on interstate highways but instead, develop a vast fresh water interconnected reservoir system (The National Fresh Water Defense Act -NFWDA, perhaps) and cultivate stores of fresh water for export in rinsed out oil tankers and recycled plastic bottles. Think of water as a very valuable resource because wars will be fought over it, right? We would use the same highway engineers, construction men and equipment but end up with a vast and priceless resource. Water as a commodity will put oil to shame in my opinion.
My bottom line: I am more and more optimistic Americans are “getting it” now and even more will as time moves forward.
Retirees need to find a secure investment for their grandchildren, but the question is where can one find a relatively safe future plan in the present environment. I am thinking that waiting is best because everything is so unstable. No one can predict the outcome of our precarious economy today.
Mr. Weiss,
All fiat currencies have historically become worthless.
It is an illusion to think that we, the United States are invunerable to this happening.
Very clearly you have forseen it happening.
It seems to me that hyperinflation is simply a matter of time.
The more the government intervenes the worse it will get.
Have you ever read the book “The Road to Surfdom” ?
A very important book written in 1944 in England.
But very much to the point of what is happeing in our country today.
I see gold as the one investment that will weather the huge storm about to break.
Though the price of gold, if you look into it, has been suppressed.
But as failing banks ultimately will not be able to bailed out.
And companies buried alive in debt continue to fail.
Eventually all the gold that has been dumped on the markets to keep
the price down, by the central banks will be gone.
And with no more gold left to dump, we will see the price of gold rise to
astronomic levels.
Not of couse without the resulting chaos of a societal earthquake.
And if for some reason the value of gold becomes questioned,
then Western cilvilization will be over as we know it.
But I don’t think that will happen just yet.
A final thought: The Native people in South America did not see gold as money
they had other things for that, they saw it as sacred, a symbol of the Divine.
What this crisis is shaking us to see, is that a better system must arise
out of the ashes of what is blazing now.
What exactly that is remains to be seen, but I like something Albert Einstein said
“You can’t solve a problem from the same level of awareness that caused it.”
Best,
Dan
I agree that debt killed GM, and I also think the present overall economic crisis we are in is because of too much American debt (at all levels). Our government’s response is to borrow even more money and go further into debt. What am I missing?
John Boyes
What do you think about GE?
sorry, forgot to include:
Is there any chance with a weak dollar that a new world currency could emerge? If so, what would that do to gold and the dollar?
The FED and the banking cartel created a system of debt, they criminally hijacked the treasury department. The federal government, the FED and Banking Cartel are all guilty of the blunders listed below.
The eight common blunders are:
• Wealth without work
• Pleasure without conscience
• Knowledge without character
• Commerce without morality
• Science without humanity
• Worship without sacrifice
• Politics without principle
• Rights without responsibilities.
My sense would be that going forward from this point, only two investments will preserve capital:
1. gold bullion and profitable, commercial gold producers and
2. large cap equities in consumer staples in the EUR zone (where with the exception of the U.K. – which is not in EUR currency – governments have not taken on the kind of debt the U.S. has)
I am amazed at the stupidity of our government. The auto business runs this country – NOT the banks. At least the automakers are trying by offering the public incentives to buy and American cars have come along way as the majority of them are fuel efficient despite what Obama says. The fact of the matter is this is now becomming a “panzy” nation thanks to Obama and these hypocritical “liberals” who want to get their hands in the pie. All the dealership, parts, suppliers and businesses that are being put out of business and unemployed that are now “out on the street” as a result. True, GM was greedy and lax on productivity but if they gave AIG one hundred and eighty five billion, as well as Lehman Brothers, Bank of I America and the list goes on big money why not just let them all die and start new banks with the money they gave them – screw them all as they are greedy and stupid to begin with! This is a hell of a lot easier than shutting down 2,400 dealerships, causing further massive unemployment and betraying employee loyalty and consumer confidence!
Martin, I must say that you and several other pundits are all seeing the demise of GM as some signal that the sky is falling, that America will sink into the sea. I am sorry for the loss of so many jobs but, truth be told, GM has been consistantly running on fumes (no pun intended) for the past fifteen years, borrowing its operating cash, borrowing to maintain a sense of obligation to its retirees while continuing to pump out a stable of “has been” vehicles. Drive down the freeway and count the number of Buicks, Oldsmobiles and Ponitacs you pass–I did so last Saturday on a 160 mile roadtrip and the count was zip, nada, zed for all three. To me that says a thousand words about a company’s sales, marketing and, most of all, vision. I don’t think the market sees any DJIA “icons”–it just sees the facts, pure and simple and the fact of GM is that it has been dying for a long, long time and this whole affair is nothing more than the coup de grace–I only wish that it had happened before the government put our hard-earned money into this beached whale.
THE QUESTION SHOULD BE NOT IF BUT HOW?
WHAT NEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY IN POLICY, VALUES , AN COLLABORATION ? AND WHEN AND WHO WILL HELP TO MAKE THOSE CHANGES IN AMERICA AND THE WORLD?
Based on what’s reasonably and evidently forseeable at present, how long into the future does it appear likely (probable) that major inflation will come to dominate the currently prevalent deflationary conditions? And how soon, after this, will the country begin to experience a multi-sector systemic breakdown? Finally, what plausibly probable counter-measures loom (economic, social, political) that can prevent or at least thwart this economic and social disaster? [I know this is a crystal-ball kind of question, but any opining on your part would be appreciated!!!]
I just paid $3500 for financial guidance from Dr. Weiss through the $mil fund. It is a bit unnerving to have him asking the opinion of his readers for investment ideas. Perhaps that isn’t such a bad research after all. I will be interested in seeing how this works out for us all. Kelly
stupid, corrupt politicians have given our money to corrupt financials, thereby keeping their lock on power and money. this crisis has given us massive debt and spineless leaders. this total lack of vision for the long term will assure our demise as a world leader. i hope my assessment is wrong.
We allowed greed to overtake our economy. I escaped from California last year, but because of my experience in const. and development could see what was going to happen in home prices. My wife and I are native Californians, and hated to leave- loved the Bay area due to my sailing for 45 years. Everything had to be bigger and better. No developer construction homes for average family – families forced to buy what was available and not out of need. K&B posting 75 percent return. Was chief estimator and PM in days when we were fortunate to make 5-15 % on project. Overpaid public officials. Bay bridge had to be show piece for $ 15 B when it could have cost $3B.
Have much to say, need outlet as I have many observations on over educated public with expectations of immediate great fortunes. The myth and ruin of Silicon Valley.
THe whole world is in trouble; not just the United States. As we slip into the Greater Depression, people have to wake up and realize the government is not going to help you. Gold and Silver, Energy Resources and Agriculture wil protect you in the future. Invest in emerging markets. Water Resources is a must; less water available; more desalination plants have to go up! God willing; no depression will occur but you can minimize the devastating effect it can have on you. Better to be prepared if the inevitable occurs.
The “Elites?” had planned this and working through totally dishonest banksters created exactly what they wanted. Their next goal is the distruction of the USA government, just as I am watching happen here in the UK. Greed will also be their downfall; I am sorry to say.
Thanks for all your great articles Martin, I love your book which I purchased for the homeless childrens charity.
God bless and protect you and the team.
Big money, big investments, big risks put the right places will either survive, break even or prosper..conversely money put in the wrong places will bust and people will survive collectively by trade craft and trade or offering new human services guided by networks or situations. Is it worth it to look for investments in Water, Wind Power, and Non-Hybrid seeds, for instance, if you no longer have but a few thousand dollars in American cash and a little in small gold coins and a little in silver coins. In some ways, it might be just as well having little to lose because you don’t have much, instead of having much and being obligated to risk a lot and lose a lot by shear weight of circumstance in your own effort depending on investments instead of community networks etc., which could hold life saving value. Your thoughts?
Martin,
there are four industry segments I believe will do well going forward:
(1) Oil; production is way down and demand will increase unbtil alternate sources of energy are on line.
(2) Infrastructure companies in which the Federal government is investing large sums of money.
(3) Water; there is already a shortage in several countries and it will get worse as the world population grows.
(4) Wind; this may be the #1 alternate source of energy in the future.
Best regards,
Jim
We’ve been recent readers of your emails and like what we read. We think worse times are ahead. My husband is self employed in the construction area where people have no money or have lost their jobs. What advice do you have for a large family with limited income and minimal retirement? Also, how to keep our home when things get tougher? What is the minimum amt. to be able to invest. Unfortunately, we couldn’t afford the contrarian option.
I have no debt and a strong cash position. Having read your book, I still find myself perplexed as to what investment strategy to follow. For sure, at the age of 59, I would only invest additional amounts into equity markets that I could afford to lose.
Having said that, I am struggling with which way to go. I deal with an investment/brokerage firm that has done a great job of managing risk especially through this recessionary period in moving a significant portion of their fund to cash and bonds in advance of the equity market decline.
They argue that they balance stock, bonds and equity instruments that are relatively liquid in such a way as to maximize their flexibility to address either inflationary and deflationary movements……
Your comments above as well as the ones in your book and the sheer volume of debt that the government has incurred along with the record level of consumer debt and the high standard of living that we enjoy versus emerging markets makes me very wary of pursuing additional RISK. The downside of course is that the return on my cash account is virtually nothing.
Your thoughts?
Many thanks
I don’t think the United States will prevail. It’s a shame that such a dynamic society could deteriorate so rapidly, but here we are. There’s no fundamentally good reason for the stock market’s strength. Denial, I guess.
Martin,
I see major problems of the horizon for not only the US economy, but the global economy as well. The old saying as GM goes so goes America should be recoined to “as Americaa goes so goes the world” This short term bear rally has many people confused into believing that a full recovery has begun, it simply is not true.
I don’t know how long it will take things to stabilize, but I do know that as a private business owner, I have had to cut spending not increase it, so maybe the government at all levels could do the same and learn the fiscal discipline it takes to survive the tough times instead of mortgaging the future of this great country on short term politically motivated agendas.
On top of the fearful economic problems we face in America is my concern that the fellow in the oval office is a Trogan Horse. A man of mystery who has never run a 7/11 store and is now leading the U. S. economy? Sounds more like the blind leading blind than true leadership. A sign of his wisdom and leadership – put a 31 year old recent graduate of Yale in charge of the auto industry. Don’t worry, the fact he has never been in the auto business is no problem for Obama. After all, he has never run a business either. Perhaps that adds to the Presidential comfort level?
Grab your wallet and any asset you can tie down!
With friends like those leading us in Washington, who needs enemies?
ARJ
I was hoping you would you will give us a clue if not the answer. Where to go and how to get there is our key to survive this downward spiral in the US economy. Near term establish a road map, keep your assets readily available and be able to move quickly when the long term view is clearer. We need leadership and a person with vision to guide us thru these treacherous times and Martin you have been selected for that Mission. Its not mission impossible, many of us have faith in your ability to pull this off..
GM needs to go. They have relied on past efforts at innovation for too many years. They have had major stumbels: Cad 8-6-4, Cad Cimeron. They put a Chevy motor in the Escalade. They haven’t kept up with overhead cam designs. In the eighties they produced a lot of inferior products that gear heads such as me resent them for. They design parts to fail intentionally. I am gloating at their demise, buhaa ha ha ha.
I am very sad to say that I think America is on its way from a second-world country to a third-world country. Measured by health care, education, public infrastructure, prison population, and street crime, America gets poor grades and is deteriorating further. I was born in 1954 but have the work ethic more typical to those born in the 30’s or 40’s. Frankly, my baby boomer peers are largely selfish, lazy, and wasteful. Succeeding generations have been overindulged and brainwashed by pop culture and a terrible education system. All my adult life I have seen government careen from pillar to post, making bad problems worse and often creating problems where none previously existed. History suggests that it only gets better when “nobody has anything to lose” – after almost everyone is equally miserable – usually after a prolonged depression and/or war. I really wish interest rates were allowed to rise to their natural level as I feel that would reward savers, discourage wasteful consumption, improve the balance of trade, and remove the temptation to speculate -vs- invest or save.
What impact will China’s swith to short term treasures, setting up for a rapid exit of buying U.S. treasuries have on our econimy? Ansewer that and you will have your ansewer.
Hello Dr. Weiss,
I follow your dictates and have joined the million dollar portfolio and have made the alert investments. You are spot on on you and Klaus’s predictions. My observation is of China as the holder of all our bloody debt. They are the gate keepers of our mountains of debt – Our wonderful Treasury Secretary i believe (as i write this) is on his knees in China begging the Government of China to buy more and extend more terms on our U.S. debt. Can you comment about your thoughts on this please. Would China be “shooting themselves in the foot” if they refused to throw good money after bad – how interconnected is out economy in this disfuctional relationship and since they have an 8% growth rate would it also not be sensible or mandatory for them to open their pocketbooks to — excuse my expression “save our butts…” Best wishes to you and your family. Kurt
Dear Mr. Weiss:
Beautifully and powerfully written!!! A classic piece of writing.
What I think…while I’m not an economist, I’ve lived a long time and I think that
the America that we once knew is dead, being replaced with a European type
Socialism.
The Islamic issue is not settled and will come back to haunt us when we are most vunerable and like GM we will need to go thru our own form a bankruptsy and
reinvent ourself –if its not too late.
Otherwise, I see a nation broken up with little enconomic and social principalities
like Italy during the middle ages and the rest of us mindless peasants, worth only what we can spend on a credit card.
Tom Whittingslow
This market is going up because hedge funds are under performing the market and feel they have to buy even though they know it’s not the thing to be doing. Also, U.S. treasuries are being dumped big time,and some of that cash is going into the market and into commodities, driving up costs of both borrowing and raw materials. Economists were worrying about deflation. Not to worry! The recent rise in real estate activity is simply people trying to get in before interest rates on mortgages explode to the upside. Ask Obama how many jobs he has created so far. Government employees don’t count.
A new money could be possible; word out there of the Amero. I think the new money backed by gold in silver would be great. With all of the world debt, all of the gold and sliver on the surface cannot back it up. We need to start from scratch all over again.
There could be a problem of supply though; not enough gold to back up the money or will there be a gov’t confiscation? I don’t think the people will stand for that.
Martin, is there any chance that the inflationary forces and the deflationary forces will be controlled in a circus tightrope type balancing act which in a decade or so will lead to a new stability? I oscillate between wondering if my 1.7 million dollar savings will someday buy a really good dinner at a top NYC restaurant, or whether prices will collapse until $200 is enough to buy a new car.
Drat! A lost opportunity. It’s all a case of being in the wrong place. We practice bankruptcy in California. I am almost tempted to look at the 2016 on pacer for the GM filing.
On the other hand, this economy is beyond sick. Printing more money, especially in the quantities of late should lead to a major inflation. Thinking back to the oil shock of the 70’s and the resultant inflation as well as the other 2 or 3 inflationary events of my life, I find myself amazed that the currency hasn’t wound up repudiated and replaced. I suspect there is time yet for that event to materialize.
Good old Arthur Burns loved the idea of zero being the perfect inflation number, and who can forget Elliot Janeway advising households to have 6 months of reserves on hand? Great advice, but shall we say a dollar short and a day late considering the events of the day were already causing unemployment to rise?
Usual strategy for surviving an inflation is to invest in hard assets with prices rising in tandem with the economy, but that idea relies on lower than average interest rates. If the prevailing rate of interest is much higher than the rate of inflation there is a disincentive to invest in the assets in question.
As for the future, I am now getting old enough to consider retirement and perhaps I will be spared having to deal with the problems we fear, but I doubt it. That million dollars we were all supposed to have tucked away in our retirement accounts by this age might just buy me a cup of coffee.
Dustin
Martin I have watched all of your warnings and listened carefully, the only thing is I have not had the funds to participate in the investments you predicted. I do believe that America Will Survive. What we need to do is put our trust in GOD as he was the one that gave our founding fathers the strength to purseavier. It is that faith that made America Great. We need to get back to the basics in life then we WILL SURVIVE. Any Country that will press forward with evil,selfishness,corruption,greed and controlling Power of subjection, will not survive as God has Promised. We must turn to the basic fundamentals of the Christian Faith. We must learn to Share with true compassion and ask for GODS Favor.
Thanks for all your help much respect Annie
Personally, I think America will survive, but as far as I can see the whole financial system, as it is set up right now, has no chance of survival. It is only a matter of time before we’ll see its total collapse.
The madness we are witnessing right now are the last desperate attempts to rescue the status quo of those who would lose the most if the fractional banking system would cease to exist.
I hope and pray that the collapse and abolishment of the Federal Reserve will be the final result and as a consequence be replaced by the birth of a more equitable monetary system, that is not based on debt anymore…
Dr. Weiss, Do you know the number times the gov’t has been in this shape or worse since the Federal Reserve was created? Where can someone go to research the history of our counties money structure, when it began, who were the engineers or creators of the Rules of the Money?
Thank you
RR
Martin,
I have spent my entire career, nearly 30 years in the financial services sector. I knew of you and your firm early on, as I was a “beat the street” life insurance salesman. I remember how you had a “contrarian” view of finance even back then. I was too young, naive and impressionable to fully understand the significance of your ratings but I knew I respected your opinion very much.
I have watched in absolute disbelief the dismantling of our nation’s financial institutions and wondered where the voices of opposition were. Who was crying aloud in horror when we witnessed our government shove trillions of dollars of debt on the backs of an ever shrinking “earning” tax base? Why would anyone assume that our US Government, filled with its bureaucrats, with virtually no hard real life business background and “if its broke I can’t spend enough to fix it” mentality, could possibly solve the problems.
As a nation we had become so bloated with our sense of entitlement, that it only seemed fitting that we should never have to realize anything but our ever increasing portfolio’s, nearly 20% annual home appreciation and job security for life followed by a retirement befitting our status as Americans.
It never occurred to us that any/all of this was nothing short of smoke and mirrors, and if in the end it proved to be so, well we’re just so narcissist, we’ll just dump it on future generations of Americans to fix, “please pass me the sushi.”
No Martin, we’re done. We have a government that will not be restrained, we have a citizenry whose male presence has become emasculated, a judiciary that has an “anti family/anti God/anti Good” mandate, and they mean to fully implement their liberal bias to our ultimate decline as a nation while obliterating our culture in the process.
Count me as one the many who feel there is no place left for this experiment called “America” to come but, to a whimper less halt, followed closely by the “goose stepping” heals of Socialism. You’ll recognize me, I’ll be the one who is trampled to death while still clinging to my Bible and my Freedoms, while doing my best to protect my birthright to them both.
Your expertise and predictions have earned my respect. Your advice saved me money during the dot.com bust and your analysis now makes sense. Question: Has the unthinkable actions of the government, which no one could foresee, caused you to rethink the outcome, other than just a delay of the outcome? Thanks.
When your largest international creditor has people Chuckling/laughing at your Treasury Secretary, one has to know that our status in the world has suffreed greatly as a result of our inability to control spending, act prudently with our allies and the lack of much economic and financial expertise on Capitol Hill. Perhaps more importantly those in DC just seem to have lost their hearing at the same time
You asked whether America will survive. Both Presidents Bush and Obama (and Congress) have sacrificed the long-term interests of the nation and its people in order to serve the short term-interests of the reckless elites of Wall Street. Unless President Obama and this Congress wake up and serve the long-term interests of the nation and its people and sacrifice the reckless elites of Wall Street, the nation as we know it will not survive. There will be some entity called the USA, but we won’t recognize it.
Dr. Weiss,
I have read your book, ordered another for family faithfully been reading your e-mails, however. We have done what we could to prepare, getting out of debt, paying off our house, etc.
I however want to know what families that don’t have a large chunk of money to invest can do? We have one son starting college and another to follow in about four years. Our savings are slim. We don’t have the large amounts of capital to work with. So my question is, what can the middle class American’s do that are struggling but doing all we can. If we don’t have tens of thousands of dollars to invest?
Next I had an idea cross my mind. Recently I was reading an article on the current crisis for all small businesses. They cannot get capitol even when they have a solid business plan because the banks are in such bad shape. I’m curious as to what a group of folks like us might be able to do to help some of the more deserving entrepreneurs out. It seems to me like a golden opportunity laying there…
Well thanks for considering what to advise the more average folks out here to do. Maay the Lord bless and keep you!
Dr. Weiss,
Having read your book cover-to-cover twice and taken notes, I have become deeply concerned. Thank you for outlining a strategy for enduring the times to come and for prospering afterwards.
I have a question regarding the social programs of modern times, and how they factor in to your comparisons with the 1930s. Presently, social security, food stamps, unemployment compensation, and high medical insurance costs play a role in our economy that did not exist several generations ago. Medical insurance premiums, while not yet a social program, have drained off funds that might otherwise have gone into savings. How to you assess these factors in the present-day economy?
You have asked, will America survive? Well, your book suggests that the economy will improve when America has purged the negative and encourages the positive. So, the answer is “‘yes,” with strength of character.
As each day goes by, we are getting closer to finanical collapse. Will it happen this year, or 3 years from now? What will it look like when we hit rock bottom? Will it be worse than the Great Depression or will it look more like something we see in the movies – like Mad Max?
I don’t know what to say about all of this. I have had experience with inverse funds in your international portfolio in past years. I am not afraid of the volitility but I have learned to set my own stops then possibly buy again later.
Things are much too complicated for me to go it alone so I take Martin’s, Claus’ and Larry’s advice and tweak it some. My gains are better than the Contrarain Portfolio today but tomorrow is another story.
Martin;
If the voters in this country continue to support the character of the current administration we are ultimately doomed to socialism and it’s dictator posture. Our only hope is to vote in a new and Godly contingency of a majority control of our nation. While there are pockets of opportunity for the knowledgeably elite the masses of this nation will suffer the agonies that go along with socialism. Thank you for portraying the reality of our fiscal marketplace. David Bryan, Houston, TX
FIRST AND LAST LETTERS OF GARBAGE ! I WILL NOT BE TRADING OR INVESTING WITH ANY CORPORATIONS THIS DAY FORTH IF POSSIBLE . SUPPORT MOM & POP EVERYONE !
Dear Martin,
At the age of 84 I don’t have too much concern about what our Gov’t is doing to our economy, but for my kids and and grandkids I am scared to death about their future and the effect the Gov’t will have on their lives and quality of life. As I see things this current administration is going to ruin the entire country.
When I think about all the people who have given their lives and treasures to found and preserve America and it’s ideals, it justs breaks my heart to see what’s happened to us. I’ve read that an overwhelming majority were against the government bailouts, against the takeover of the autos, against abortion, against gay marriage; and yet, our legislators plow right ahead against the majority, even stating they know better. Well, I’m going with what I know. Food, energy, water, gold, home, God, and family (not necessarily in that order).
The US economy has been hollowed out by the loss of its manufacturing base. Witness the last vestiges of the once mighty auto industry in shambles and bankrptcy. This dislocation can’t be fixed by service industry jobs which traditionally pay less. Nor can it be concealed for too long by covering it up in a massive spending spree with fiat money. The long term outlook is grim and few “experts” are openly discussing the problem.
I respect and value Martin Wiess. I have appreciated his comments. I believe that one should collect rare American coins. I do think they will out-perform gold. I have lost at least 50% of my IRA and 401 investments as I sold out at the bottom of the Dow. I have never felt like I had enough money to pay large investment advice fees. Our health(wife and I) is not good and we are 78 years old. We really don’t know where to put money other than rare coins. I hope and pray that many of our corporations like Coca Cola, Walmart, and McDonald’s do well. A big portion of my assets are now in cash which is not wise.
Martin:
Our economy is made up of the good (google), the bad (aig)and the ugly (lehman brothers). The sooner we get rid of the ugly the better for all of us. The market is insane, as bad stocks are up for no reason.
For the average joe, trying to invest is tough.
This country is finished. iF it ever wants to come back we need MAJOR REFORMS
1. Political reform, Send every politician for every bad decision, that way they have skin in the game, If i can be sent to prison for not paying my traffic ticket, and the Ceo of a co, could get nailed, if his financials are not in order. why shold the politician be exempt. He must be sent to prison
2. Reform of the Law. Make Sure Guilty party pays then all these frivilous lawsuits will dissapear, and JOhn Edwards would not have a hair cut for 400$
3. Stock option reform
one class of people go to work the others ceos print money, basically robbing your 401k’s. if I buy 100 share of any co, i should also get options, since i am a provider of capital.
4. Medical REform
if all these are done simultaneoulsy then we may have light at the end ofthis tunnel
John
I always hear 70% of our economy is consumer. I don’t understand, how could we consume more that we produce?
I think, the real problem problem is politics and policies, when more than 50% voters doesn’t pay tax (I don’t consider government workers Tax payers, 50% maybe too high, but I believe that number is high and rising.) The system has no intrinsic interest for economic growth. The majority’s interest is how to grab other people’s money through government machine. Tax without representation is wrong, what about too much representation with out paying tax? Here is a radical thought, maybe the solution should be weighing someone’s vote according to if they pay tax or not. The government workers and welfare recipients should have no voting rights, or count as half a vote.
On the opposite side, how do we contain the greed of the money, if we did give tax payer more rights?
All we can hope is that pendulum will swing back, we will not reach optimum, but never too far away from it. As you said, the government can not hold gravity, they can push against it, but they can not prevent the inevitable.
Martin.
I’m one of the “baby boomers, I suppose – over 63 and I’m tired of the stupidity of our Congress and Total leaders of our nation. GM going down, Bank Fraud and elimination, Overseas Oil Industries pricing our petroleum wherever they desire making Billions in profits, Wars where people really don’t care for us. I’m sick sick sick. As a Veteran and a believer in America, I’m for firing all our leaders – put into office those that really want to serve our country and not their wallets – for a clean sweep in Washington – closing our borders to ALL. If you come to America, you stay in America. I’m for stopping aid to any other nation and becoming self sufficient.
I know the above is a “little” above and beyond, but we have to take a stand against Washington bureaucracy and against other countries coming in to rule our nation. You know and I know, that China will become our great grand children’s language choice and not English. If we don’t stop this mess now – all the above may come true.
I am a Christian – I believe our country was established with ONE GOD, who has blessed us tremendously. Our current President doesn’t not believe in our constitution and the believe in a Supreme God that helped found out country.
Stop the stupidity today. Thanks for allowing me to vent, but I’m praying that something is done soon and that God again can reign in America.
Joe E. Stockton
Dear Martin: What we are witnessing is the engineered destruction of America. Nothing more, nothing less. If you are in denial to this fact, I suggest you visit, http://www.AE911truth.com. I flew military NORAD missions and have 30 years flying experience with a major airline, and the facts are clear, OUR LEADERS ARE LYING TO US. They are stealing our Republic in large chunks each day, and the only question remaining is will it be deflation or inflation? Please keep our retirement money safe. Sincerly, Kirk Miller
Dear Mr.Weiss Having been with your news letters and services for some years, when you first stated G M. would go bankrupt, I could not bleive it. as to your question will
America go bankrupt, I do not know, by the grace of God I hope not, as to what will save America, for our children and grand children, again I do not know, we used to think
jobs people willing to work and improve their lifestyle, now one asks where has all the jobs gone. sorry to ramble on, I can not answer your question. Sincerely Beverly Hill
Hi Martin,
I have been a subscriber since 1998. Thanks for all the great advice, you are the only one I have ever listened to with my hard earned dollars. On balance I think we will see a substantial increase in inflation, much higher gold and quadruple higher silver, a re-inflation of housing prices as evidenced on the local florida news here last week that median housing prices have actually ticked up approx. 9% last month. Currencies should do well if you short the US dollar short term. Some thoughts on the dollar and deflation/inflation argument,,,, In 1932 the US was on the gold standard and a net creditor, leading people to believe the dollar was strong and safe, therefore deflation occured. Flash forward 77 years,,,,, now most people walking the streets of America know that the dollar is funny money, not backed by anything, and an extreme net DEBTOR. Hence, a far weaker dollar and rampant inflation will occur. People want their money to be REAL,, thats gold/silver. Even my pool guy with a 10th grade education is out buying silver coins on the weekends. By the way thru out history ALL paper currencies go to zero eventually, again thats ALL paper currencies go to Zero. Good Luck to all of us and keep listening to Martin as he is our best bet to weather this storm.
General Motors is an icon alright but NOT one of innovation and progress. If they were they wouldn’t be in this mess to begin with.
Their iconography, if you will, is more about bloated layers of self preserving management and avoidance of market realities.
I percieve them to be the “Baby Hueys” of the auto industry.
While I still respect what they were 30 years ago I cannot shed tears for their demise.
The economy wet down the tubes long ago, but our attention was averted elsewhere. We let down our guard and were subverted by self interest away from principals. The principals of our founding fathers, bought with blood. The evidence is everywhere ! Property, money and power ever more concentrated in the hands of a few. Quality of life going down ever since the early sixties. The value and durability of what we buy steadily decreasing with an ever greater personal price to pay. With two income families and dying communities. What is left is the community of misery and discontent. Unrestrained capitalism as surely leads to oligarchy as any corrupt government. The big have gotten too big, the rich have gotten too rich and the powerful too powerful. Now it has come time for the predators to feed on each other in seeking ultimate dominance and we are left in the dust of their battles. Yet there is a way out, though I see ONLY one. A return to principals where “rights” are viewed by all as “other’s rights and my responsibilities”. We need to sterilize Washington of all its corruption and start fresh with only people we know and trust. Then we need to make sure they stay honest.
The only investment today worth anything a few years from now will be the reputation of a good character.
(comments welcome eddy@impanis.net)
I am a product of the ’50’s and believed that anything was possible. Today I don’t know if America will be here as a free country in the next few years. Our congress, both parties, do nothing but protect their jobs and now we have one party that has no knowledge of what is going on in this country and the other is helpless.
We are trying to follow your advice financially, but we feel so insecure when we do anything except save to make a difference. We did not join the group you just began because we are simply too cautious.
I guess, your question just hit home today. “Will we survive?”
Well put Estevan!!
It still boggles my mind that the government thinks the best way to get out of our debt crises is to create more debt! That only makes sense to a politician. Unfortunately, our generation has grown up as coddled, spoiled children who think we are all owed something. There is nothing of the sacrifice that paved the way for prosperity that was the hallmark of the former generation. We have spent, spent, spent, and partied, partied, partied. Now that the party is over and the bill has come due, the first thing we look to do is to go borrow some more of someone else’s money so we can start the party again! Shame!
I don’t think there are many safe investments out there except for maybe gold and silver. Even foreign funds are overbought right now..
In answer to this question:
“How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?”
On a micro level, this will affect my mortgage rate, obviously.
On a macro level: “Will America Survive”? … In my opinion, only if the Fed is ultimately abolished and a debt-free National currency is re-introduced, which will protect the economy from inflation producing/debt incurring money printing.
Panama has no Central Bank, and is doing well. Why not America?
I believe the best situation right now is the Currency and
Precious metal fields. I have been investing for 48 years
and business and the economy is the worst I have seen.
It is not just my company but the builders I do work for
are really desperate for work. The government has to get out
of peoples business. Let the weak fall.
Thank You.
Dr. Weiss,
I was wondering if you have some sort of time frame for the start of the downfall in equites. I have invested in FAZ and SRS so far and not doing well, but trying to hang in for the inevitable.
As one of your writers said, Japan used this ‘qualitative Easing’ strategy before with much success. However, Japan had exports to fall back on. We don’t for a variety of reasons including that world trade has just about stopped in its tracks. I try to look for what America can fall back on and all I can see is what they can’t fall back on. We can’t fall back on cars because history appears to be done with them. We can’t fall back on agriculture because Peak Oil is starting to take it’s toll in the form of reduced yields every year for almost a decade now. I had to laugh out loud when I heard President Obama’s speech where he said that there is a calm in America now since the bailouts. Who’s telling him this? Certainly not anyone I know.
We will survive BUT it won’t be pretty. Gold and oil are currently rising in the face of heightened inflation worries. Adjustable rate mtges. will reset at higher rates. This will put even more strain on the housing market. Americans are deeply in hock. they have taken money from their homes,401k’s and credit cards to finance unsustainable lifestyles. We are fighting a war that we will not win. eventually it will be crunch time.
Martin:
I need some help in understanding how to invest in a period where it is not clear if we are heading for spikes in inflation or deflation of the dollar. I know you have taken the position in the past that we are more likely headed into a depression characterized by a deflationary period. I have and will protect myself by shorting the market in certain sectors as bubbles continue to burst. Nonetheless, I cannot help be be confused as to whether we will see rampant inflation if the printing presses continue to roll. On the one hand you have advised that (gold aside) the safest money is in cash or short term treasuries and this is where you want to be at the bottom to take advantage of opportunities as your dad did. When should we become worried about holding substantial cash in money markets for example?
Thanks,
Mark
The average house in NJ has lost over 40,000 in market value…..22% in just the first quarter of this year. This is a silent thief in the room. A house bought in 1999 is worth what you paid for it in 1999…10 years of equity gone and still going down. the mortgage bail out program is a major scam. As a country we now manufacture very little. No production, no jobs, no income….no real economy to speak about. Investors money is going out of the country………manufacturing was the back bone of our country and our country’s back bone has been broken. The very worst is yet to come. While our government is fiddling the cities are starting to burn. Double digit unemployment is here already and growing at a very fast rate. We are headed for a domestic war, I’m sorry to say, because the Fed is way out of touch with the man in the street. The 70’s and 30’s are back in full force. Invest in gold & diamonds..the buck is dead along with the Fed.
This all started with one word “GREED” The current generation was brought up with the notion “it is all about ME” The only way to bring back our once great nation is to rewire our current thinking. The time that this takes will determine how fast we can recover.
This type of mentality is why the people and the government of the people should not have any part in assisting institutions that run themselves based upon poor management and greed. Let them reorganize them self or fail. This is what I had to do.
I currently have had to consider the option of bankruptcy but have decided my best course of action was to negotiate with the lending institutions. Much to my surprise only the institutions that had the most to loose were interested in negotiating a good solution. My mortgage company is unwilling to negotiate, told me that I made to little for assistance. Even before I was having troubles I contacted them to see what my options were. I was told there are no options for assistance unless I was 30 das late. Assisting in my current downward spiral. I haven’t hit the ground yet, but have gained a lot more control.
I remember back in the 1990s that irrational could flourish for a long, long time. Our political despots have now created their own golden age. We somehow are experiencing deflating asset values imbedded on top of stagflation in terms of our economy and buying necessities. On what other planet would our current leaders be considered to be somewhat intelligent beings? Great salesmanship isn’t the same thing as intelligence.
If the government is so afraid of what will happen if China quits buying our debt why don’t we Americans boycott our debt until our government stops burying us under it? If we don’t buy our debt then foreign governments may want to reconsider buying it. Then our politicians will have work toward making our country prosperous again. As things stand invest against current government efforts.
Dear Martin,
YOU need to be running this country! We are on very thin ice and I fear the cracks in
the ice (GM & Chrysler) are going to spread like a raging fire! I purchased your most recent book, (Ultimate survival guide) and I hope it will pull a guy who is disabled with
a wife who sells real estate from the bottomless pit this administration has created.
In fairness past administrations have indeed contributed to this mess and I seen it
coming but ignorned the warnings. I will no longer ignore the warnings and God
willing we will prevail and prosper once again. Are you ever going to be in Pennsylvania?
Looking forward to meeting you in the near future.
The reason we’re bailing out GM, even if they’re 173 Billion dollars in dept already, is to spare employee’s their jobs? They should be payed a big benefit package and can move on and find some more stability, hopefully. Isn’t this like a bandaide?
What I’ve learned is the “Federal Reserve” is the ones that control the banks, Gov’ts etc. They could “easily” print more money like they just did, to save people from LOSING THEIR HOMES, etc. Did gov’t and elites have stocks, etc. invested in GM?? What’s going on?
I want to thank you for your advice and help over the last half year. I learned a lot but, at almost 89 years of age, I cannot risk much of my limited nest egg and still keep the family island paradise I’ve developed with my own blood, sweat and money for the benefit of my family LLC. I would like to have participated in your million dollar program but with a $5000 account. Not even including including Broker’s fees, I figure that in following your market moves we would have to gain about about 30% just for me to break even.
Thank you again and God Bless you, too. I really believe you are honestly trying to help people.
My question.
I believe gold and silver will do good over the next few months and years. I have invested in the Central Funds of Canada (GTU, and CEF). Do you agree with this type of investment and investing in Central Fund of Canada and my time frame
But SLV and GLD ETFs seem to be doing better than GTU and CEF. Do you have any comment. Should i withdraw my investments from GTU and CEF and invest in SLV and GLD
I look foreward to your reply. Thanks
The GM plant at Spring Hill, Tennessee is only 16 miles west and in a few months, it will be idled. It currently has @ 2,100 employees but as important, it has 8,000 employees that work in sister businesses that serve the plant. Counting spouses and kids that affects a lot of people. And that puts additional stress on a state that relies on a Tennessee Sales Tax to fund its’ operations.
The green shoots that we were suppose to see sprouting are brown and wilting away… More foreclosures, more bankruptcies, more unemployment, which begets more foreclosures, and more bankruptcies and soon the business sector begins to tumble, and then the commercial foreclosures and bankruptcies grow and then more unemployment, and the circle goes round again and again…….
And we understand why students at Peking University in China break out in laughter when our Tresury Secretary Geithner speaking about U.S. bonds, of which China is the biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury bonds. says:
“Chinese financial assets are very safe,” Geithner said. His response drew laughter from the audience.
It was very embarrasing for the United States.
The market is being manipulated and those that buy into this Conjured Rally will be devastated when reality comes calling. The green shoot reports are fabricated and when no one is looking or listening, they adjust the reports later to reflect reality, long after the controlled and biased media has reported “How Great Thou Art”.
P.T. Barnum said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. I hope each of you hold true to yourselves and let Martin and staff guide you through troubled times. Hey as Bob once said, “The times, they are a changin”
I response to GM, come meet the new boss, same as the old boss…………..
I drive a Toyota…….
Thanks for your concerned and insightful inputs concerning the imploding financial situation. I firmly believe that select sectors and stock is even more likely to provide exceptional profit potential because of the current situation. Right now, bargain basement stock like G.E., Cat, Exxon Mobil and any realistic “green” energy solution providers will generate huge gains over the next five or so years. The once in a lifetime prices on these blue chips, I see as an irresistable long term play.
Let’s get some things in perspective.
All gold that has ever been mined amoumnts to $ 5 trillion. US toal debt amounts to conservatively $ 600 trillion – ten time the world GDP. Even the massive amounts of the government bail out package ($ 13 trillion) are peanuts when compared to the total problem. There is no elixir for this terminal disease – the USA will not survive in the immediate geopolitical world as a nation.
Bloomberg recently had an article saying that the US will be emaciated like Zimbabwe, how sad. What have we done wrong???
We can expect breakdown in societal systems leading to massive civili strife – actually civil war, total breakdown from within, and then milatary occupation from without. After all the world wants its money back!
Martin,
Your latest forecast of doom has never referred to the real problems that have brought America to this state of fighting for its economical life. The seeds of these problems were not planted this year, but most of them were allowed to grow over the last eight years. It doesn’t take a genius to become a Monday morning quarterback. Where were you and your team when all the roads to these critical problems were being ignored. I do not know if the present administration can salvage the country’s future, but I do know that publishing all the predictions of gloom and doom you have opted to make your platform, has become nothing more than a critique of Obama and nothing more.
I will cancel my subscription and depend on more astute advisors in the future.
Good luck and God Bless.
We “the people” are in DEEP do-do ! The present BUNCH in Washington are inexperienced,inept,impressed with their power,shoot blindly from the hip,don`t consider any consequencies,……I could go on and on…..gets` right back to the DEEP DO-DO!!! Gov`t can`t save GM…They`ll run out of the $70BLN before people start buying cars again….and when they start buying cars again….they won`t be made by GM! Most of the GM`s bailout $ is going to their underfunded pension plans….who are they trying to fool? JERRY SHISLER
I feel the root cause of any boom or bust in the U.S. is directly related to the dictates of the “Federal” Reserve. After some research on the history of the FR, one can easily see that they control this country and have power to force their will on all….our government (which of course the Federal Reserve is NOT a part of) in this country are just their puppets.
In my opinion this country will cease to be a world power in just a few short years and will then be absorbed into the One World Government.
Money is power and the LOVE of money is the root of all evil.
For now gold, silver and inverse ETF’s are the place to be for our quickly depreciating dollars. For eternity our faith, trust and hope needs to be place in the God of the Bible.
79 years old, reasonably healthy, retired last June, (wife still working part-time). No pension, just savings and good investments. Barring a catastrophic event, we can make it financially. Planned on no SS or Medicare but taking advantage of them while they last. Thought seriously of moving out of the USA but all family & friends are here, so no go. Crime increasing despite the media saying it isn’t. Live 40 miles from the heart of a major city and hoping no one else wants to move to the ‘burbs. After the last election results went & bought double “O” buckshot for my 12 gauge in case the predicted “civil disorder” happens. We are hunkered down, cautious but still viewing the glass as at least half full.
Martin; My state of mind is that I am not sure of what’s coming. I know Banacke main goal is to devalue the dollar so we can better compete internationally, however, I suspect his thought process is overly simplistic.
What he has definitely accomplished is to partially distroy the American “Wealth Creating Engine.”
My only real hope is that both parties show their distain and offer resistance to further massive spending. Perhaps we can slow down (hamper) this administration at Mid Term Elections?
It’s unfortunate that society of this age is generating more followers than thinkers resulting in this administration. We appear to be outnumbered, at this time, perhaps not, humans are fickle and can “turn on a Dime” maybe?.
Keep pushing, you have my respect.
Anthony M.
Government Motors! Obama could care less about the American worker or it’s citizens. He is strictly in the prower broker business. What message will he deliver in Cairo, Egypt this thursday? My fear is that he will sell out the U.S.A and Israel to gain favor from his Muslem brothers worldwide. I am 70 years old and have gone through 3 corporate bankruptcys in the Airline Industry during my working lifetime. I have lost most of my retirement and now what was left have lost over 40% of that due to the economic meltdown. Do I feel sorry for all the UAW Union employees that have lost jobs or are going to lose jobs? No! Noone tooke care of my wrinkled old butt when it happened to me but I did and am surviving. Will they survive? Probably, but Obama could care less how they accomplish that. My gut feeling is that Obama is more interest in converting this once great nation into one of governemt dependency and political power for him and his. “Change We Can Believe In”, Pure Bull Crap. We will soon see $5.00-10.00 dollar per gallon gas, unafforadable home heating prices, food shortages, 10-%+ inflation and 20%+ tax increases. This I will not be able to survive as well as many citizens. This will cause REAL change which will get very ugly! In my view, Obama’s policies regarding running our country are about as worthless as a screendoor on a Submarine.
The US dollar is on the threshold of judgement day. Here is a list of interested parties who want the dollar to be devalued at our expense…………
OBAMA
EVERY EXPORTER ON PLANET EARTH EXCEPT US
THE FEDERAL RESERVE
THE CHINESE
THE JAPANESE
GOLD/SILVER STAKE HOLDERS
THE EUROPEANS
THE TREASURY SECRETARY
PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE ON PLANET EARTH EXCEPT US
If I had not read your recent book and all of your helpful newsletters, I’d be trying to decide how to rebalance my protfolio – bonds, large cap stocks, small cap stocks – and the proper mix of domestic to international. I now look at diversification in a new way. Your information on ETFs has been extremely helpful – what great tools for all markets. Using ETFs I’m shorting long term treasuries, buying gold and silver, playing currency trends, and owning a little bit of China. I have a good store of cash and I’m ready to start shorting the stock indices as this rally fizzles. It takes more time and attention, but it is definitely worth it. Thank you for valuable advice.
No Chance!
I am invested primarily in Gold. For inflation deflation or political risk, I think it has proven itself historically.
The dollar and the stock market seem to work inversely. Market willgo up with Goldman Sacks manipulation.
I am not a day trader. I bought food etf’s MOO Dba, etc. They have done well as has a wheat futures contract. We do have to eat as they say.
Stock up on cans and store a years supply of food. It may come in handy. I also bought a good handgun and ammo, I know it sounds paranoid, but……. who knows.
G d Bless America!!!!
GM’s demise was more about it’s poor planning about the future… They could have easily began work the chevy Volt years ago ( but now a 40 mile range for a plug in is almost obsolete and the car hasn’t come out yet.!) Personally I feel that the UAW strangled the management with their demands ,pensions, and layoff programs what a sweet deal it was.
GM Has basically written off $172 Billion of debt by going Bankrupt. Yet I feel those “elements” of product design. production, and quality are not in place at this point to revive this dinosaur. They MUST re-engineer their future and learn what the Japanese have learned years ago about building a quality machine. it’s about proper materials for proper long term operation. ie. Why do Toyota’s Last so well ? it’s also about the UNIONS and their greed seizing the day and ruining or more aptly put “biting the hand that fed them” . in the end those that mattered least were rewarded MOST and you cannot expect to survive when quality and R&D are slipping through your fingers as management looks the other way or are too busy fliting about on the corporate jet instead of managing by EXAMPLE and fixing issues before they become a problem and require a Federal RECALL. GM rolled the dice thinking were all a bunch of 6th graders with grilled cheese sandwich brains and would’nt notice their poorly made Products that were made by union labor that had a golden parachute.
Martin, your will be better served if you STOP being an alarmist and using FRIGHT to lure your customer base and instead become PROACTIVE and tell WHERE it’s best to invest during these interesting times. Your diatribes are alarmist and do not contribute to clarity we are all seeking.
God, you Americans overreact. It’s not the end of the world. It’s the end of America thinking that they are the only game in the world. A new realism of thinking is required with some damn optimism. The USA has been living on credit for decades. Find ways to earn your living in competition with the rest of the world. GM ignored the rest of the world with regard to motor manufacture. It was always going down without fresh thinking. But look at ExxonMobil, the most successful corporation in the world. The most successful US corporations are those that are able to move freely and comfortably in the rest of the world.The US was the home of innovation and it can still be so.
By all means be prudent with your money (a good rule for all times) but don’t climb into your bunker with your egg-laying chickens just yet.
SIR
I have now read you for many months. I must conclude that you have always been right to date. What a performance!
If we already had the oracle of Omaha in Buffet, i just hope that we do not now have the oracle of Florida in Weiss! As everything happens nothing is impossible!I hope that the great american nation will be stronger than ever after this terrible storm.
Here in Canada Quebec province, things are not so bad, but what will be the future here if U.S. collapse?
I followed your advices for a long time, and stay cash except little day trading on oil and gold.
Thank you for your work so needed now. I am giving your site to a lot of people here.
God bless you.
Antoine Poitras Quebec city Canada
Considering all the tinder boxes associated with the current national and international political, social and economic environments, should any one or a combination catch fire it seems that the unthinkable(financial collapse, loss of faith in governments ability to control and stabilize, widespread social unrest and the dire consequences of each) happening everywhere grows stronger with each passing week. I just can’t get my mind around what this means for our lives in the relative short term i.e. next couple of years. Certainly some riots, martial law, social and moral degradation, deprivation, civil wars, etc. have and are happening in some places around the world but is it really realistic in our own backyards? Those that embrace the spectre of economic and social collapse do present compelling arguments for the potential of it happening in the short term and even some voices that had been advocating recovery have now begun to express concerns and doubts. There are some scary opinions about what could happen! Would be interested in hearing why an imminent collapse will not happen.
Your predictions that a catastrophe is coming seem to make sense. However, even bears are now saying the stock market will go up for a while. I have stayed in the money market for months but am beginning to believe I need to get back in the market at least short term.
Also, I am not convinced that your prediction of a deflationary rather than an inflationary depression is correct. (I have read your book.) I cannot believe the federal government will not just simply print money and pay entitlements and debt in inflated money.
I understand that we all feel a little sense of dread about the unknown repercussions following the GM bankrupcy. My question is, leaving the feeling of dread and fear aside for a second, how do we answer those journalists/analysts that say that the debt level per unit of GDP is still way below that of other countries? The number for the US would have to double approximately, for example, to match the problems that the UK is currently going through, and even for them, the credit rating agencies just downgraded the outlook and not the actual rating itself. Bigger point – totally agree that we in the US are headed down the wrong path, but how much more time do we have compared to other countries? Having said all that, my feeling is that, even if our debt level per GDP ratio is not as bad as (say) the UK, the effort required to reverse the situation may be more difficult and have worse side-effects than just hastening the process of bankrupting the USA. The author seems to be brought up more and more, these days, but really, I think Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged concept is still 100% sound and relevant to today. Do we want to hasten the inevitable bankrupcy and deal with it in our generation, or leave it for our kids or grandkids to sort out? How do we hasten bankrupcy? In some perverse way, maybe it is, in fact, moral to max out all credit cards, and then default. Feel free to flame me, now, but I’m just throwing ideas out there.
Dear Martin,
The country I was born into 61 years ago is already gone! The question is whether financial viability will last long enough for me to be comfortably dead, or we have the Second Coming, whichever comes first…
Not too many years ago, after Orange County defaulted, I had a discussion with my father to the effect that the mounting National Debt would drive the Federal Government to default on its obligations. Now Comrade Al-Obama has spent beyond our ability to pay, our children’s ability to pay, our grand children’s ability to pay, our great-grand children’s ability to pay… He is a faithful disciple of FDR, not realizing that FDR’s bad tax policies actually prolonged the Depression. Al-Obama overlooks that we have learned a great deal since 1932, and hence his policy is 100% wrong and doomed to a catastrophic failure!
There are some good investments out there. I still think the Utility and Energy sectors offer good returns for retirees. Careful contrarian investments are to be found for the long term. I am also intrigued with the prospect of Saturn as an independent company. For the next five years, I think Ford is attractive. Al-Obama’s ‘Government Motors’ with its little green cars that will only be viable in the big cities will be an expensive failure. Even if the government does sell off its equity in a few years — probably at a loss — serious investors will avoid such investments.
Keep on doing what you are doing! Your researches are a voice of truth in the wilderness of cheerleader and governmant lies!
Cheers,
Kent
The bail-outs are, simply, madness.
America learned nothing from the oil panic of 1974 – we still have no viable energy policy. We remain at the mercy of OPEC.
Now we beg the Chinese to not stop buying our bonds – translation: buy something that will be worth much less next year and every year thereafter.
To base the nation’s future on the goodwill of the Chinese Communist Party is beyond stupid, it is sedition and treason.
As for GM, it two years it will in desperate need of funds. Since ‘the taxpayers’ now own it, we’all will be expected to bail it out again.
And it five years it will again face bankruptcy and reorganization.
And in five years I will be afraid to write such a letter as I am sure the thought police will be watching me.
Hi Martin. My portfolio is basically gold,silver and your contrarian recommendations. I haven’t been following your Safe Money recommendations because most stocks, if you are right, will tank. I have been doing some GIGO get in and get out trades. They have been mostly successful. I furthur believe that we will have runaway inflation,such as brazil has experienced in the past. I pray it not be so, but i do not see anyway to avoid it. I do not think real estate is a good hedge as it wouldv most likely be lost to inflated taxes. Super inflation is a sure way for government to seize private prperty through taxes. God bless
Respectfully;
Gerald P. Murphy
Jerry
good morning,
I have been following your reccomendations except shorting the dow/s and p and nasdaq after listening to Larry who so far is proven correct. he states the dollar with have a short bounce-do you agree and if so what is regarded as short? also euro dollar when do you feel it will turn-1.45 or 1.50?
also have you changed your view on the markets and expect it to keep climbing or collapse as Klaus has described.
Lastly, I have bought SRS a inverse on the real estate market. I bought at 24 and is now 18. Is this the correct way to short real estate and the next shoe to drop. It,s high was 300 in november. Will it go back there? Would you play srs or another choice and will the real estate get worse.
Also, sorry for the long letter. I would like to come over from London and meet you guys one day and give you my thanks as I enjoy your articles and have enjoyed the journey of TBT thanks to you. Is it possible to meet you and discuss the future with you at some stage?
My brother and I were searching for a uk product to take advantage of the uk gilt market but tbt was the only inverse bond we could find and so chose that route.
All the best,
Andrew Hart
I think, that this amount of paper flooding our country and with a good possibility that China, and Europe could dump our greenbacks for hard metal (Gold/Silver) or a new world money, we hard in deep trouble.
I think that if we went into sometype of gold standard, backing our paper for example:
$5000 / $10,000 gold per oz. gold standard paper. China and Europe would hold on to our (gold standard) paper. The gold standard paper would also eat up our debt. Note: The USA might have to declare inself insolvent prior to switching to this gold standard.
Martin,
I have some of my investments in ETF’s, specifically, SRS, SDS, FXP and DUG (just to counter the recent run up in oil recently) but I have taken a major bath, especially with SRS and FXP. Thoughts?
Thanks,
Leo in the DC area.
GM name will survive but will be unrecognizable as the GM of yesteryear.
1) Economic situation will become dire, vehicles as we know them will become a luxury few can afford.
2) The regulator efforts of Federal government to more standards not supported the public are a major problem this includes taxes added to fuel causing $5.00 a gallon by 2010 $7.00 by 2012, and more if consumption is more than enviomentalists think should be.
3) Electric cars will face $0.25 or more per KWH to plug into special grid connection for charging auto batteries due to energy and road taxes, also the current grid will run out of capacity if there are many more electric cars being charged, regulations will soon be required to charge cars at non peak electrical load times..
4) The model to look at to see the future is European socialist, Muslim or Asian countries, only the elite will have traditional American type cars all others will have motor bikes or light trucks.
5) The current administration, “change” is rapidly taking the country to the socialist / comunist poor house fewer and fewer persons will be able to afford personal transportation as today.
—-Not a very good out look, government spending is dooming GM and everbody, the good times are over, if you are not ready now it may be too late, hyper inflation will start by this fall (Oct. 2009).
Face it – America is on its way down the tubes. But, there will be many who profit by it, as there always are during catastrophies. Sometime we have to fall in order to pick our selves up. The question is not “ARE we falling?” but “WHEN will we hit rock bottom, and will we bounce?”. There is a fundamental law that governs “bounce” that has to do with resilience. The question, then, is “Does America have enough resilience to bounce back?”. It’s happening. I told my insurance broker back in 1996,the year I retired (young!), that we would see a HUGE financial calamity early in the 21st. century. He merely smiled – so did I…
Before the non-conspiracy readers get upset with what I’m about to say, ask yourself “How can the world’s largest (at one time), perhaps wealthiest corporation now be bankrupt?” GM as well as Ford and Chrysler employ many, many extremely intelligent and well-educated people to predict trends and to adjust production accordingly. Is it an accident that these companies were unable to see fuel costs spike and consumer wishes for more economical vehicles rise? Is it a coincidence that along with sending tens of thousands of union workers to unemployment lines GM will also divest itself of billions of dollars of financial responsibilities in the form of pension plans?
The long-term repercussions from a GM bankruptcy will, I fear, be truly staggering. I can’t help but believe that this entire economic debacle, here and world wide, has been carefully and thoroughly orchestrated to the end of a one world currency and a one world government. This to the extreme detriment of all of us in either the middle or the bottom of the financial heap.
“Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?”… “Who will guard the guards?”
Gerry
My basket is full with gold and on the inverse side etf FAZ. At 3X the inverse of the index I believe FAZ could be a big winner.
Martin:
I am a retired local government attorney with absolutely minimal investment knowledge and less than two years investment experience–and that on very, very limited funds. My original goal was and still is to develop my investments to supplement a decent and comparatively secure retirement so that I could add a few frills to my life that I might not otherwise be able to afford. But, like most, I have not been successful in that attempt thus far.i
I believe that America will survive although I think the road will be tough and I do not see America being the preeminent economy for some time, perhaps never again. That is not to say that America will not be an economic force in the future but I think we will be behind several other countries such as China and India.
I found your positions on the economy to be more realistic than most and agree that the present market rally will not last and will be followed by another significant downward movement in our economy.
I believe foreign stocks and precious metals will be the best investments for the immediate future. I am also following the Contrarian portfolio although on such a small scale compared to your own investment as to be significant only to me.
Invest in Guns, Food, and keep your money in a safe place protected by your guns! Be self sufficient and depend on no one! Let the monkeys in the White House fling poo on us until we are sick of it and the whole zoo collapses. Then we must open our safes, take our money out, and start over. Everything else mentioned is just a best effort of what “might” happen or what should we do.
Sorry, I am just a 28yr old dad who for the first time in my life started to care. My father-in-law and my grand father-in-law both subscribe to the Money and Markets news letters. I get the daily emails and buy the books Martin and his crew put out.
From what i gather, Martin advises to save safely, wait for the collapse, and then rebuild it the right way…….
Until then,
Remember what matters most and what you can take with you when you die.
As an old man, 81 rushing towards 82, I am sure I will not live to see the recovery which I am sure will involve a revolution or a war. All of the last three generations of Lewises’ said it the same, and I do too: ” We have had the best of it “.
No Martin,
We are not going to survive as the nation we know today.
We are going to be a second rate nation as the Bilderberg Group wants.
We were the final obstacle to the formation and consolidation of the One World Government.
In contrast with what they did in the formation of the “European Nation” they had to destroy not only the sovereignty and the currency but what was left of our financial independence with debt that could not be paid back.
To add insult to injury, they managed “to dummy” our people to the point they were no longer capable of having a discerning capability any more.
I can’t see America surviving as long as we still have a two party system that allow the embicles of both parties to steal our money and give it away to Corporations and individuals that don’t have a clue and trying to be the so called policeman of the world. Hell we can’t even police ourselves. Short of Revolution the age of the American Empire is coming to a close. Bet against American Stocks and Currency and your sure to make money in the long run. Sorry to say that South America and Asia may the places to be. Unless someone has some balls to stop this madness and the American people have the guts to listen and sacrifice, we are done, finished, through, kaput.
Hi Martin,
Yes, America will survive, but survive is it. America will never be the great economic giant that it was in the 50-70’s. We have become a nation of consumers, and have given up being the best at intervention, manufacturing, and being producers. We have become a nation of users, and I don’t think there is much brightness in the future.
My hope is that the Obama Administration and Congress take a look at the 1921 Depression (Yes, the 1921 Depression, the one no one likes to talk about), and get some direction in what would really solve this Recession/Depression that we are currently in. Spending more money will not solve the problem. It did not solve it in the last great depression, it didn’t solve it in Japan’s recession, and it will not solve our problem.
If we are truly capitalists, then we should act like same. If you invest in a business and run it poorly, and end up owing more than you own, then you lose, then you fail, and you should be allowed to fail. Not one of these banks, not one of these corporations should be allowed to continue. They should be allowed to fail in order to make way for new innovators to come along and continue, and maybe do it right the next time around.
As to the investors side of all this, I can only say that I do not think there is one stock on the entire exchange that is worth risking your money on right now. The only thing that is real right now are the commodities, the items the world needs to continue to function, ie: oil, foodstuffs, metals.
The best investment I believe should be silver. It is currently being manipulated to keep the price low, but if owning 37% of the above ground silver is good enough for Warren Buffett, then I know it is good enough for me.
Silver, gold and some other commodities will be the only thing worth owning, especially if this administration continues to print money out of thin air. Where is it going to stop? Will we stop before we end up with another Wiemar, Germany fiasco? Will we stop printing the money before it becomes completely worthless, as it did in Germany in 1919-1923. I really hope that someone in this Government will see the disaster for which we are heading unless we curtail spending, and fairly quick at that. We do not have much time to make a change that will correct the madness that we are now involved in.
I made this as short as I could, but could have written hundreds of pages if I had to.
Best to you, and may God bless your work,
Harry
I cannot believe that so many members of Congress are idly standing by and contributing to sending this once proud country down the toilet. If all members of Congress were asked to take
a loyalty oath to the US rather than ridiculous ideoligies, I wonder how many would choose the good old USA.
Dear Martin,
In reply to the question YES,but the real question is how will they pay for this debt.
I belive that we will see tax increases of every sort inclueding a Vat tax which will
raise taxes for every american. This will be presented as nessary in light of the
historic events ( that they caused ) “They inherited “and you did vote for change.
Keep up your good work.
Best Regards,
Pat
The inevitable seems so impossible, the citizentry can not comprehend what will happen. Debt destroys if not managed properly and the gov’t is mismanging debt beyond anything ever witnessed before. To me this ends in violence, revolution, desperation, chaos and military in the streets. I am not an extreme person. I have run several companies built using borrowed funds. I know the stress associated with debt. The gov’t has no signs of stress, except for the Sec. of Treas. Obama glad-hands, believes himself and exhibits no accountability for his actions. This is the most sure recipe for disaster you can imagine. God help us.
I am a manufacturer. Being able to borrow is extremely important to my survival. Red tape expenses are unbelievable. I think most of the voters are on payroll for 3 or more generations and have no idea what their employers are facing in red tape or they would vote differently. Now that unemployment checks are running out more will be forced to become entrepreneurs. That is when, I hope, they will discover that the ‘there aught to be a law mentality’ should go away.
Dear Martin
I grew up in a third world country, a few lived well, but the majority lived in poverty. Not the abject poverty that we see in the Philipines or some parts of India, but we did not have cars, bank accounts, fine homes, TVs,telephones. Education and business was the way to obtain a higher standard of living. America has always projected a picture of affluent lifestyles to the world and people strive to attain it by any means possible. Today we are experiencing an economy shift, we will survive with less; those who are wise and thrifty will have sufficient. What surprises me here is that people who were doing so well are unable to feed their families. I read yesterday that the shareholders of GM are out in the cold. The bond holders are receiving 10% share of the company,the UAW 17.5%,the Canadian govt. 12.5% and the Federal Govt. 60%.
Please tell me why the stock market even exists. Plus the fact that people will be losing jobs.
Time to buy Gold, Gold stocks, and OIL
I think the huge spending by all the countries of the word has averted financial catastrophy and the US stock market will continue to rise and reach 5o% above present levels, this year. Buy Bank of America and GE now.
Will America survive?
Years ago I read a little book named, How To Cash In While The Other Guy Goes Under.
It stated in every crises and every calamity there is a window of opportunity to win and win big. I love winning and know that whatever happens, just position yourself to provide the running herd a direction to you and your concepts and opportunities. Give them an answer to there fears and passions and they will shower you with money. Soon the herd will be jumping out of the stock market again and this time after the dust clears the best opportunities will be available to those with wisdom and direction.
Yes for sure we will survive, I know I will.
I am a retired enlisted soldier, with no investments or private means. I live now as I always have, at the pleasure of government. America, as we knew it, and the one I fought for, is dead. What follows is not pretty. The Fascisti have arrived and nothing will ever be the same. Change is natural and to be expected. How many auto makers
have gone the way of the Dodo in my lifetime? GM is just one more, but the marque will still be there, a hollow icon – eyewash – as we say in the Army.
I wish I had bought stock in Ruger, Smith and Wesson and Winchester on Nov 5th, but lame old soldiers don’t have discretionary funds to gamble. My advice, Trust nothing this government says or does; believe nothing you personally cannot prove; Keep your faith but be prepared for persecutions; learn the skills for elementary survival and start
now. Pass on to those ill educated, ignorant young, what America was, and might be.
You’re not defeated until you believe you’re defeated!
By the way excessive Red Tape does not prevent crooks from operating, it just prevents honest folk from operating.
Martin,
Your latest book predicts deflation. Peter Schiff, another respected analyst, predicts the oppoiste – inflation and hyper-inflation. Which future is the most probable and why?
Thank you in advance for your response!
Paul
Please answer whether your advice to convert most stock holdings into Treasuries still stands. If not what else?
Will americe survive? YES.
Every fiat dollar that is printed today will effect us over the next 1 to 3 years with higher prices and a lower standard of living. Good luck getting a job that makes a living wage( greater than 50000 per year) thats pretty much evaporated from the american landscape.
Has anyone ever noticed how many people work for the government today?
Just go out on the road at 9am on the next federal holiday, it’s pretty much a ghost town. I heard an estimate somewhere that in any given locale in america fully 55% or more people work directly or indirectly for the government. Goes to show you what’s REALLY happened to america since 1981. I wish us all good luck with the frankenstein monster AKA the american economy.
Dear Dr. Martin,
The fall of America will be the 8th wonder of the world. And I dare to say that the US is too big to fall. Of course, we have started a global economy, and nobody knows how it should work.
I dare to say that only after those 9 trillion dollars announced by the government we could have the real crisis.
But a real crisis, will start when the US will have no immigrants. Could this happen? Yes, but hard to believe, in my life. The US will no more have immigrants when another place to attract them will develop, or when the people will have no reason to immigrate. Again, hard to believe. Conclusion: the whole world will change.
We think those of us who were not greedy and played life as our parents taught us born in the depression days will be alright. Even though we made alot of money some of us we didn’t like debt so didn’t jump in and drown. Always frugal and laughed at we
retired over thirty three years ago with everything paid for…..no debt and live below our means. Now in our 70’s our big house can hold a son or daughters family when it get rough out there and live like the Walton’s and enjoy the beach three miles away. This is teaching so many how to finally live and what is really important in life and it’s not an unpaid for BMW, it’s the cushion we were told to have for the rainy days.
Dear Mr Weiss,
I`m writing you from Germany and the financial situation is a bit different for the individual
( social securities …..`).I prefer some gold, gold Etf`s, corporate bonds with short terms, and some stocks. For hegding a knock out put.
Your money and market is so fascinating, but it`s hard to get some American investments
here.
Thank you for all the work you do for this letter .
irmi
I would simply let the system collapse and rebuild on the rubble. Experts can give a hundred reasons I am wrong. In the end the system will implode and the Feds will print enough worthless money to make the Weimar Republic pale by comparison.
I am very concerned that by year end we will be in a very deep depresion, one that will last for 5-6 years. We are also heading for total government control over everything we do and own. I am 63 years old and have never seen such blatant corruption in every part of our Government, starting at the very top. I am very scared for our Country I have written both senators and my congresman many times, but have never received a reply. I am very angry and frustrated. I am at a loss as to what to do except vote for “honest” change in 2010. I only hope it is not too late. This Country has no legitimate leadership.
How do you get the statistics for your letter and the comments made by the writters
600 trillion of debt seems unlikley a number. How can you but not Larry E. miss out on one of the biggest bounces instock market history. mar 9 s&p 666 I guess the market went to hell in a hand basket. Now it is at 943 a 42% return. now if we see a 10-16%
decline and then an upturn the bear market is over.
your advise has been to get out of debt: house, cars, credit cards etc. For 99% of the public that will tend to be very difficult as we have been raised to buy on time, save a portion of our income and make payments on time and to trust the financial system. the jobs are gone, the morality is gone, the character is gone and so is the money. In this economic environment is it impossible for the average person to stay solvent. Any one with a 401k has been ripped off by the system they trusted, now they have nothing to invest with. we all do not have hundreds of thousands of dollars to invest. the nation is broke. people are not stupid they are ignorant and uneducated about money. Ask 20 people who owns the fed and 19 of them will say we do or the government. Until the population understands money a recovery will be difficult.
Dear Martin,
Your excellent reputation as an economic expert, honest reporter, and US Patriot is greatly appreciated. Your comments of the past have been very helpful to many people because your viewpoints followed the actual conditions of the day versus what the main press gave to us for consumption.
My opinion about the survivability of America is extremely cautious for many reasons including ultra high debt where it may be impossible to pay it back in a lifetime, reduction of lifestyle by the masses to a level not seen since the great depression, possible loss of law and order especially in urban areas, critical shortages even if temporary for water, food, medical supplies, energy, etc., and the reduction of our Constitutional rights as we knew them previously.
How can we say that investments in any venue will be successful when the very basic fundamental elements of society are now in play?
If and when our government returns to adherance to the Consitution, honest lawmaking and enforcement, the investment world is going to be undependable.
Martin, I appreciated your June 2 letter and forwarded it to my 150 or so friends thusly:
“Hello All,
Martin Weiss’ father was a successful investor/advisor dating back into the 1920’s & 30’s. Martin picked up the baton in the 50’s-60s. For years he has issued a very respected service, rating insurance companies and banks, along with market advisory products. I have subscribed to his service since the late 90’s.
Currently he has an actual one million dollar account, “The Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio”, as a model that subscribers may follow. It is administered by a noted German advisor, Claus Vogt.
Please scroll down for a brief communication he sent today that reflects reality in the midst of a current wide-spread false optimism.
Most of you, on my “e-mail list”, honor the God of the Bible, who wrote of these very troubled days to preceed His Son’s return to this planet to straighten things out!
Martin’s appraisal should cause us to pray and take what action we can to preserve our “plunging dollar”, defined, nest-eggs for sensible, administered, investment in His/our heavenly storehouse!
Speed the Day!
2 Peter 3:11-12, Duane G.
P.S. You may click here for a current picture of your “dollar”!”
I really don’t understand what all the fuss is about. I’m certain that the rest of the world doesn’t care wether or not the U.S. has anything to sell, they are happy sending us funds for pictures of dead presidents. Who needs a job anyway when China will finace our daily life………
Interest rates will have to increase due to massive amounts of dollars being pumped into our country.
The people runing our major corporations were taught at Harvard and other business schools to increase their prices based on the forward assumed inflation rate so they can earn money in real dollars. They will atill try to do this even in a market environment where the demand is significantly less. some will be bankrupt.
We must all write to our congressmen to stop this nonsense of bailing out failed banks and businesses that are not capable of using our tax money to recover. We should not help those that caused this problem and continue to bleed our money system.
We need to ask congress tro stop this nonstop effort by the exective branch to put us so far in debt that we can never hope to recover.
I vote for investing in Agriculture, food, precious metals and key industrial commodities like copper.
We need to fire the Federal Reserve. They are not in our government anywy and they primarily serve big money interests. Who has received all of the stimulus money?
When do we get an acounting of these funds?
I believe that America will survive after several years with renewed strength. Hopefully The administration will come to their senses and abandon their bail out plans.
For now Inverse ETF’s will make the most profits. Stocks in China will make good gains after we hit bottom, probably around Dow 3,000, maybe less!
Many thanks for your guidance in this turmoil.
Stan
Hi Martin. I am not sure if you subscribe to the Kondratieff cycle but I feel that there is a good deal of truth in this theory. Simply put, according to this theory, after 70 or so years since the last winter (depression) we are once again in winter and the investment of the moment is gold, but in particular junior gold mining stocks. I take the view that the oil/gold relationship that seemed to drift apart over the past few months is likely to be back with a vengance, seeing both commodities move higher. I would be interested in your comments on this. Kind regards, James
Martin, you did an excellent job again in recognizing what is up and explaining it the way which is understandable for all.
Thank you.
Michal
Hi Martin, Claus and Friends,
I would like to start by saying it’s about time! Inefficient giants have been ravaging public funds for years. And we all know, that NO bailout money should have been forwarded to any of these Car Companies or Banks without some very obvious list of changes to infrastructure and operations, enough said!
I am very interested in the possibility of making money with commodities, precious metals, oil and gas, etc. But Every time I hope to make 20-30% gains on a stock in USD, the very real possibility that I will lose ground on a depreciating USD now looms large? Which means I might need to make minimum 50% profit on each investment to reduce this risk, but that doesn’t seem realistic?
Thanks Michael
(Vancouver)
Will America survive? I can only hope and pray that it does! I remember what it says in the Bible, 2nd Chronicles 7:14, “if my people, who are called by my Name, humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sins, and will heal their land”. America’s problem is not economic, it is moral. The economic downturn is the symptom and result of a deeper spiritual problem. As de Tocqueville said many years ago, “America is great because America is good. If America ceases to be good, she will cease to be great”.
You are my most trusted source of financial common sense in these increasingly destabilizing economic times. Thanks for all you are doing!
I do not believe the question of America’s survival is in our hands but I do believe that our elected leaders’ moral character and therefore decisions they make will be pivitol in our immediate future. If knowledge is power than it follows that lack of knowledge breeds powerlessness. When we see the incredibly self-serving moves our leaders are making, virtually spitting in the face of informed decisions and common sense, we have only ourselves (collectively speaking) to blame. I believe the current administration gained office by appealing to the self-serving interests of the masses – basically their greed and penchant for government handouts. In this country we generally get what we want in terms of the government. So we have voted ourselves into impotence.
I think the lightning strike of the debt crisis last fall was the shockwave that started an avalanche. It was given a push down the mountain by President Bush and with the coronation of Obama the slope of the mountain has increased an order of magnitude. I for one do not intend to get buried by this avalanche. I so appreciate your urgent clairion call to get our money to safety. As of yeasterday I could take no more sleepless nights and have moved all my retirement accounts to what you have said is the safest investment – T-Bill money market accounts. I plan on sleeping well as the avalanche gains momentum and pray I can stay at least one step ahead of the coming inflationary devastation. I have also gotten completely out of debt and have reduced discretionary spending to the minimum. I can do no more. Thanks for being the voice of reason in these troubled times!
The only realistic solution to the economic malaise was declaration of a tax holiday; a suspension of payroll taxes and elimination of the capital gains tax. The government currently takes about $20 billion from the productive citizens every week in the form of payroll taxes; equating to over $1 trillion a year. Fewer people would be laid off, the worker would have more to spend and the recession would end immediately. We would not need to concern ourselves with failing businesses and banks that were poorly managed as there would be plenty of investors from around the world willing and able to pick up the pieces — driving new business and new jobs.
Obama is proving that governing by left wing ideology does not work.
Will America Survive?
As with Greece and Rome, history is due to repeat itself. The American Economy as we know it will change. But the spirit of America will live on! America is only a thought in our minds and in our hearts. Whatever happens in the future, only God knows. Don’t be afraid of what the future holds. As Americans we will never give up, and we will never surrender.
This economy is simpley a house of cards ready to implode.
Sorry!
Hi, thanks so much for your prior report on the 100 safest n most dangerous banks. With the GM failure I worry how that effects our banks and specifically whether JP Morgan and/or CitiBank will fail. I echo you, I believe in not expecting BOA to fail. Any comments ?
The American Empire will only survive if we have true leadership, paradigm shifts, and vision (along with implementation) for the 21st century. All the oil/bank/politicos, etc Baron’s are short sighted and greedy. China and other developing nations will surpass us in energy, bio-tech, stem cell, health care, etc. as our pols cling to obsolete ideologies and again greed.
We got change and short changed.
Bush/Obama & whoever the next crook is that we elect, are one in the same, make no mistake about it. A politician is a politician, and they are all (or 99%) corrupt. It is all about money & power – no matter what country you live in.
With regard to investments, my position is get out of the U.S. dollar while you still have one. Our government is purposely debasing the dollar. Get into gold, the only investment that has REAL value. Get into foreign stocks that are high dividend paying stocks. The next bubble or bubbles may possibly be dollar-denominated cash assets and U.S. bonds. I read an article from an online foreign newspaper recently that stated the U.S. is at best going to resemble the Weimar Republic or at worst, Zimbabwe. I tend to believe this due to all of the fiat money our government is printing. The U.S. may survive this economic tornado, but we will be VERY different when the dust settles. Our children & grandchildren will NOT know what the real America was like. They will have a new reality & will be fascinated by our stories of things like free speech, respecting the individual, and the crazy notion of life, liberty, & the pursuit of happiness.
Will the richest country in the world survive.. of course it will. But, if the Federal authorities don’t go after the thieves who have been knowingly selling worthless debts then, look forward to more of the same when once again the U.S. of A. bounces back. The bounce back will be quicker if Uncle Sam could see his way clear to relinquish this stupid, costly, role of world policeman. Remember that charity should begin at home.
I appreciate all of your advice, but as a 40 year old resident of Michigan, and barely keeping my job, I’m resigned to the fact that retirement investing may be to no avail. We are all pretty much wiped out in this state, property values are worthless, people leaving in droves, no jobs, gun and ammunition sales are on fire. My retirement will basically be when I die….what little is left the kids will fight over. As for Social Security…its a pipe dream for people my age, we will have to work forever. Get ready for socialism…
I am amazed at how clueless most people are today, they ask deep questions, and then ignore the answers. Most people seem troubled, but are afraid to look at the train that is barreling at them and take action.
The strong consumer sentiment makes no sense to me. How can it be rising? Are people really so confident in the U.S. Government to fix it or do they see inflation dead ahead and instinctively know to buy assests like stocks?
When I look around my neighborhood and town, I do not see a boom coming, so what is coming?
The ruling elite control us all via the banking system. As I see it, they are not about
to relinquish that control. They will do anything they have to (including trashing of
currencies) to fix the leaks in our ship of state , and I believe they will keep us afloat.
What America will be like after their operations is anybody’s guess.
The dollar is headed south, treasuries are rising, unemployment is rising, inflation is
rampant and we’ve given control to a man with his own agenda. The Treasury is run
by a tax cheat and here in Georgia the Justice dept just decided you don’t have to show ID to vote which means being a citizen is merely a luxury but not really required as long
as you say you’re one. Ronald Reagan, where are you? The people who we elected to
represent us are putting the screws to us and now we’re told that we don’t pay enough
in taxes. One of the oldest and biggest manufacturers in the world has just gone bankrupt. My IRA portfolio is down 80% and my back hurts from carrying the load.
And now you are going to make me rich. I need a stiff drink
I have my escape plan in place. I am one of the fortuante ones. I own 2 properties outright in Brasil with my beautiful wife and lots of precious metals. I’ve been accumulating gold bullion since 2003 and most of it is outside of this country. My gold CANNOT be confiscated which I am sure is coming in the future. When the lights turn out in the good ole USA, the mantra will be, “I got mine, did you get yours?” Sad but true.
When the politicians continue to follow this course of destruction I can’t help but think that this is a planned path of ruin by a group of treasonous individuals.
As an old WW 2 infantryman, I do not expect any recovery in my remaining days.
Precious metals will be a wise investment.
MAY GOD BLESS OUR AMERICA.
Dear Martin,
Do you still feel T-Bills are the best place for cash to be placed?
It does not seem the Gov. is too reliable or depndable at the present time.
Thanks , Jim
Fannie, Freddie, GM, Chrysler – - ????
In War time – it takes money, marbles and chalk to bring about destruction. Bridges and buildings and companies do not fall all at the same time, without great planning. Yes, they can fall individually – - but not all together – at the same time.
This above is a FACT. Great effort must be put forth in order to form a Perfect Storm that can re-shape the world. I almost admire, those who can bring down the World economies.
I am afraid America is being sold out to foreign countrys. Selling Chrsler to Italy etc and getting in debt to foreign countrys. They will soon own America.
I will soon be 68 and am still working. Everything I have is in IRA CD’s and other CD’s. My question: Will the FDIC be there for me?
in my opinion the thing to do is to let the market handle the break downs of any and all companys. if there is no interferance from the federal government, the market will began to fix itself and we will start to recover that much sooner.
Obama is deliberately driving U. S. into bankruptcy. So long as we leave him in power, there is no hope for the future of America. He is effectively running a one man government. He did not give Congress time to read the most expensive bill ever passed. They neglected their prime duty, knowing by reading a bill before voting! We have very little time left to get rid of Obama and save our nation.
I have seen your dialogue on short term deflation and long term inflation and dont really understand how this and the devalueing of the dollar all fit together or maybe its when they fit together. The most frustrating is how does Washington think we can pay off debt by borrowing. Taxes will have to increase or have a federal sales tax on everything that will be higher cost and have nothing left in purchasing power. Will the conversion of the dollar into the yaun do anything to pay off the debt.?
my feeling is very neutral to the failure of gm at the end of financial crisis of non discipline financial institutes. the world is changing and every industry has to follow the change or else lead the change. Auto industry in the States is no more competitive or productive. This new era is for Green energy and health care which will lead the economy of the next century. Workers has to find new job as the auto industry has to go. Those showrooms and car dealers are too luxury nowaday. For American, Auto industry is running “just in time” and does not need showrooms or car dealers any more, and customers will order new cars by internet direct from the factory on quere.
America will survive but in very different form. The next great depression is a given, but I am more concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and our inability to stop it. Though we worry about terrorism, our retreat from the world militarily has horrific imlications. Our military leaders have yet to speak up on this matter as opposed to overseeing the gradual dissapation of our armed forces.
Frightening indeed.
Ray
I have some retirement funds coming due at the end of June. I have to roll it over to keep from paying taxes. What do you think of a gold IRA? The fees are about $150 a year which seems outrageous to me. But would this be better than a gold ETF? Either one does not seem safe if the US goes under. I feel like they will be confiscating the gold and the stock market will be worthless so there will go the ETF… What should I do?
Because of our U.S. Constitution, Bill of Rights, Congressional balance of power, our natural resources, our acknowledged worldwide know how and our past history of being able to overcome whatever comes along, I have the belief that the United States will survive and prosper …… although not in the near future. Until our President and the forces in our country begin to recognize the need for quality and integrity in all things, the light at the end of the tunnel will continue to remain invisible.
I have joined with you in you Contrarian Portfolio until I see the light in the tunnel.
Martin;
Too much debt is what got us in this mess. It’s like an addictive speed drug. Yes, it’s very difficult and painful to give up but that is where the solution is. However, instead of coming clean and starting the recovery process we are feverishly attempting to stay high on debt. At all costs we are refusing to sober up and become healthy. I need not tell you what happens to people who don’t give up speed drugs. We know they can appear active and OK while high but we also know the end result for addicts who don’t quit.
On the dollar versus gold
GOLD THE US DOLLAR
ALWAYS HAS INTRINSIC VALUE JUST A FANCY PIECE OF PAPER
IT BACKS CURRENCIES IT BACKS NOTHING EXCEPT CREDIT LINES
HAS NEVER GONE TO ZERO ALWAYS GOES TO ZERO
SAFE HAVEN IN BAD TIMES YOUR KIDDING,,RIGHT?
CAN’T BE MANIPULATED MANIPULATED EVERYDAY BY THE GOV.
CHINA IS BUYING CHINA IS SELLING OR SOON WILL BE
JAPAN IS BUYING JAPAN IS SELLING OR SOON WILL BE
CAN BE TRADED WORLDWIDE YOU’RE KIDDING….RIGHT?
ULTIMATE RESERVE CURRENCY NOT FOR VERY MUCH LONGER
By the way, if you think our economy is bad now, just wait til the US dollar loses it’s reserve currency status. Take Care.
Martin,
You have been accurate, not flawless however stunningly accurate and the comments you stated scare the you know what out of me. I think we all have to give up any notion of the way we want it to be and be with the way it is. The way it is is the way you stated and that is made up of assertions that without a doubt you have evidence for as we do too.
In the face of this oncoming reality we need to look at what will survive and what will thrive with a new set of eye glasses and make our moves accordingly. Thanks Robert
What would happen if someone (say Mr.Sorros, or some other person) decided to create a new currency backed by gold, or some other commodity? Of course only governments are currently allowed to print money but if confidence in the $ fell precipitously then I would expect that there would be very little they could do to stop such a process. When people are pushing round wheelbarrows full of $ notes & theives steal the wheelbarrows & leave the notes then such a new currency may take off? What do you think?
As long as the country subscribes to the idea that only the Govt. can create economic growth, we are in for a long slow period of declining growth and limited upside. Here’s the analogy: Have you ever met anyone wealthy that works for or runs the DMV, School Board, Post Office, or City/County Govt…The answer is no, unless they are on the take.
Entrepreneurs and profit seeking entities of the free-market got this country to 1/4 of the entire world economy. As hard is it is for the left to understand, only capitalist not beauracrats will elevate the nation to new prosperity. So as long as we have center left govts. in…I’m out!
The world – not just the US – is restructuring and I do not believe any nation will come out of this rough financial period without significant change. The nations that increase debt to ’solve’ a debt-created problem will most likely come out weaker. Too much debt, be it on a personal, corporate, municipal, state or federal basis is always a harbinger of future weakness or collapse. This story has been played out enough times for all of us to have witnessed its result. The only real question is what is ‘too much debt’ in a given situation.
The US government appears to believe that it has been backed into a corner and sees only one ’solution’. This solution is the problem just moved up the scale (ie trying to solve a debt crisis at the personal and corporate level by creating more debt at the federal level). However, federal debt IS ultimately a personal and corporate problem – the main concern is that it weakens everyone instead of just a few. This does not add financial strength to a nation. That is the unfortunate consequence of where the US is now headed. There is still hope that it may change course.
Perhaps collapse is necessary in some form for a meaningful restructuring to take place. I do not believe any person, corporation or government can spend its way out of a structural problem. We shall see.
Will America survive?? Absolutely. Will it be the same America we have known and loved during our lifetime? I don’t see how it could be. The debt burden we will pass along to our children and grandchildren will prevent the majority of them from enjoying the living standards we have enjoyed. In some ways, that will be a good thing because look what our addiction to debt and pie in the sky has done to this country. More really bad news on the horizon as we continue to pay the price for our excess. Late ’70’s & early 80’s inflation on the way. Higher borrowing costs, especially mortgages will kill many homeownership dreams, but, the smart ones will benefit by paying as they go, instead of accumulating too much debt and counting on future prosperity to pay it off.
Back to basics for equities. Positve cash flows, reasonable growth expectations, solid companies providing quality products and services at competitive prices. I remember when Utility stocks were for “Widows and children”, well, they have a product most people can’t live without, pay reasonable dividends and have predictable earnings unless the highfliers like Enron don’t stick to their knitting.
Stick with companies who have solid balance sheets, a good history of earnings and therefore solid management. For the near future, Asian market may outperform ours, but, without the U.S. their growth options are limited. Our country’s debt burden will hobble us, but, there will be good opportunities to buy solid U.S. companies at bargain prices in the future. Just don’t expect sky high P/E’s to return any time soon.
No real surprise with the GM’s demise. They started on this road back in the 70’s when they started going against the grain of what people want and legislation that followed asking for better mileage in autos. They resisted all the way until yesterday!
GOOD BY GM, hello Government Motors..Unfortunately we don’t have a say in what they build…copy Toyota, like you should have 30 years ago!
Thank you GM for adding to the demand for oil guzzlers and ultimately ruining this great country. Thank you GM for helping cause the latest wars and contributing to the thousands of young US service people.
Now Hummer will be sold to the Chinese, great…more transfer of military technology.
Where does that leave us now…will the new GM be worth investing in or like so many that have had bailouts just go belly up again.
Should we invest in China and forget about the US??
thanks
Martin
I’ve read your comments. Nowadays investors are running to the least bad option. The dollar is the worst option! Despite it’s obvious weaknesses the euro is looking stronger than it ever did it will become a hard curency only because the dollar will be destroyed. Commodity currencies will also look strong (and stable) post recession.
Mr Weiss – I am a long time follower of yours, bought your recent book. I trust what you say. My husband is more wishy/washy. At my urging he moved his 401 into save harbor, but with the upswing of the stock market, then yesterdays jump, even with GM filing…he is ready to hop back in. Please help, How do I explain this to my husband?
I don’t know what the future is, only God knows that, but I do know that if the US survives this, it will be a much different country than we are today. Our greed and consumerism, to buy more, better, bigger has led to this. We are being given the bill for the last few decades of uncontrolable spending and I am afraid that is won’t be just our present generation that will pay, but generations to come. In California we are facing massive cuts in government spending, and it seems that the most vulnerable and weakest are being hit the hardest. As I get closer to the Social Security years (I am 60) I wonder if it will be there for me when I retire. As for investments, I am still in a quandry about some of them. I appreciate the advice given in your newletters and am trying to use some of the advice to help my little investments to stay safe and if possible grow a little.
Heard some place that Einstein was quoted as saying, “The 2 most common things in this world is hydrogen and stupidity”. This last election helped prove that saying one more time. As a School psychologist I know that intelligence is the basis of all actions, especially when you recognize that you can make people dumb, but you can’t make them smart. What’s all that got to do with the premise we’re dealing with in the market? Everything, We just got a lot more dumb people around than smart ones, and as long as they got the same vote, without the same ambitions – we’re doomed. The sad thing about this all is – people are people regardless of where you go, so there’s no getting away from it all. Let the market go up – buy the inverse ETF’s make some money and then go fishing. Chaos WILL reign. Larry, you’re one of the smart ones!
alright , general motors , Ford, Chrysler , ETC. Where lies the problem with all Business
It’s not the man or woman putting on (Hub caps. ) or doing what ever . The problem is Mangement .. Big name ceo’s and the other crooks . All see to it that they and their
friends are taken care of . They collect Millions per year. travel on company jets they are
on huge expense accounts . Then they complain about the people making $50,000 -
60,000 a year . Some of the Ceos make that much per month. Yes it’s the union fault
It it wasn’t for the Unions the employes would be making like China. a dollar a day.
And it isn’t just the Big over- paid CEOs . The upper Mangement really wasn’t interested in makeing good dependable cars . If they had been interested they would made them .
It’s all politecs . They give huge donations to our politician’s , that way they don’t have to do any thing but complain about Labor cost .What a crock, Good Magenment means . We don’t cheat others out of a decent wage while we take all .
I’ve been in Business also . You take a little and leave some for the Employies and
for continued business operations. Paying huge salarys plus boneses to some of these some of these people for no other reason than a big Show .
Lyle Sharp
I feel our nation is in dire danger. There is a Sataic movement trying to destroy our beautiful country. Glen Beck on Fox News has been trying to unite those of us who know this. I pray that soon people will wake up and listen.
Most people are not aware that the Federal Reserve Bank is not owned by our government but that most of the less than 10 owners are European! Those people have made millions the last few months while others are losing their jobs!! We, as americans, must unite to protect our country! Only GOD can defeat the devil. We must turn to GOD for his help!
Believe me, I am not a finatic, but am an american who feels so blessed to have been born in this great country. I hope you will lend your hand to help save our country!
God Bless,
Sandra Martin
I am not able to see through this mess objectively. I work in Michigan and metal bending has been my family’s livelihood for several generations. I must depend on clearer heads to prevail and lead Michigan / GM / Chrysler through the debt tsunami. The US debt to too overwhelming for me to comprehend.
I hold about 50% in treas.bills and notes, 30% in reverse etfs,and 20% in gold and gold mining stocks.
Gidday Martin,
Yes I think America will survive, for now anyhow. If you don’t believe it you are week and will ultimately suffer and become a miserable being. Strength comes from ones belief in themselves and ones country. If you live in America and don’t believe in it, you are a burden on the country.
In saying that I do think this countries politicians, need to re read the constitution.
My only question is do you think the time has come to go long in the US dollar again.
Will America Survive?
Of course it will.
While countries like companies can go broke, they can not be wound up and cease to exist. The US will survive and the real question is what will life be like in the America of tomorrow?
Well, not unlike the way life will be in the other developed nations. Unlike the crippling inflation in Germany in the 1930’s the USA is not alone in the world facing the fact that the country is financially broke and it’s citizens will have to change their view of the future
Many Things will change and here are my thoughts on some of them: -
1. The power of the political lobby will reduce.
2. The power of trades unions will reduce
3. The power of special interest groups will reduce
4. Fervent Nationalism will resurface with both positive and negative aspects.
5. Patriotism and self interest will influence personal and political agendas.
6. Good old fashioned values of hard work thrift will re-emerge.
7. International corporations will become an even bigger threat to the sovereignty governments.
8. Weaker Governments will lead to more local conflicts.
9. People will stop looking to government to resolve personal issues. The “I want it all and I want it now” syndrome will disappear.
10. We will all learn to be grateful for less.
11. More families will have to have more than one adult working to survive.
12. Education will be more important in a jobless society.
13. There will be a backlash against immigrant workers who will be seen as taking American Jobs.
14. A more Xenophobic population will emerge
15. More extreme religious groups will emerge
16. Crime will increase.
17. All aspects of law enforcement will be stretched to the limit.
18. Local Corruption will become more prevalent.
19. The gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” will increase.
20. Governance will become more inward looking
21. Resurgence of self sufficiency as a goal for the country.
22. International Goals like “Reduce Global Warming” will be put on hold.
23. Space exploration and technological advancements will slow.
24. Funding for pure research will disappear.
25. There black market in anything and everything.
Unfortunate, folks are not going to go to the grocery store with a bag full of gold, and it seems that precious metals are the only thing holding it’s value.
Since the dollar is losing it’s value fast, we need a new source of barter, exchange, because the foreign currencies are not going to be accepted at the local retailers either.
What’s next?
Let’s get all this Democrats and present Administration OUT and send them same place else. They all should serve only two terms: one in office and the second one in jail.! ! !
Martin,
Although new to you publications, I have not seen you comment on the concept of ‘Peak Oil”. From what I am reading at present the world oil production has most likely peaked and from here on out there will be less oil to be shared with more people (especially china). Growth can only happen if there is an increase in energy supplies. I think this is a very big elephant in the room that no one is talking about.
Thanks
DW
FIRST – T H A N K Y O U so much for this venue !!! Read all above comments with great interest. Your messages and and your SAFE MONEY publications have tremendously enlightened those with open minds to see beyond the mainstream media messages. Your message is truly “REAL” – that is, see what is based on the facts you well reference; and then be ready for what’s coming based on historic references that clearly shout, “economic decisions have consequences.” This I do not think is Negative as some above have expressed. Your advice is well taken to sell stocks now on bear market rallies. This latest 2000 point rally from the early March, 2009 lows is so obviously orchestrated since the fundamentals are all in conflict with an up market. Your advice is well taken to buy only 3 and 6 month Treasury bills and avoid bonds so as not to lock into a lower coupon rate which will lead to declines as prices will go below bond face value. You have prepared us well to protect principal and be ready to receive the eventual higher interest rates that the global investment community will demand on our debt.
Yes, I agree debt brought down GM and debt is and will for some time be bringing down America – but will not bring down Americans. In a Democracy even though we have a representative democracy we Americans will restore America. We do NEED TO VOTE and make each one of our voices heard to our Representatives and Senators in Congress. Basic civics lesson: the President proposes but the Congress disposes.
I expect things to get worse than most predict. Invest in self sufficiency. Stock up on food, at least a 1 year’s supply for your household. Include those who will come home to you in your count. Store at least 3 days of water plus have the ability to purify a lot more. Store fuel to heat with and cook with. Generate electricity from solar and wind power and learn to survive on the level you can generate and store. Acquire non-hybrid seeds which are openly pollenated and keep reproducing after their own kind year after year by you planting their seeds year after year. Get good at gardening. Grow fruit trees. These necessities will not be for sale anymore since everyone wants to survive.
I’m glad I’m in complete safety at the moment. I, for the life of me, can’t imagine how the markets can be so UP on the day GM goes belly. Can someone, please someone, explain that to me????
Signed,
Clearly uneducated investor
If inflation and interest rates rise, will natural resources an energy follow, remain level or fall? Will China, Australia, and Canada continue to grow if we continue to tank? Will the Blue Dog democrats and republicans have a chance to stop the madness?
We are a small holding company comprised of various investments and have been in business since 1975. We’ ve not seen anything like this. There is no where to turn for income and appreciation.
Lets call a spade a spade. What has downed the economy is nothing that has been said by martin nor anyone as no one seems to be aware of mysticism. Mysticism is the only disease of the human mind there fore the economy. Dishonesty has run through the economy like a cancer and reality gives you the experience that that choice begets.
for instance it is a fact that there is such thing as a fact which means (f)ormular to (act) In a dishonest world whims and non sequtars are passed of as facts. The running of a business is a full on assessment of the facts and act accordingly but with whims anything goes. Facts regulate whims are renegade, take gm motors all that bail out money is a dishonest move as all that money went to someone its all very corrupt. but what do you expect when the source of money is a central banking system that makes money from nothing and lends it to the government at interest when all governments have the right to issue there own currencies so to me the banking system makes a murdering psychopath look sane. the worlds mad as a hatter. the aborigines say that the socalled civilasied world are in a dream state and not aware we have been born here here!!!!!!! but when the system collapses then you will know youve been born hang on to your hats all you disconnects
hi, martin–we will survive, but america might well be just a teensy bit different than we are used to! or maybe a whole lot different!!!!! i’m just a bit less pessimistic than are you–maybe somewhat more hopefull would be better. we are in deep do do–all capitalistic societies which have the kind of debt that we have are in the do do along with us–many more than us. what will happen to the dollar? god knows. should be buy the canadian dollar etf? australian?? or how about the brazilian real??? maybe even the philippine peso??? where will it end? gene
Martin, it seems to me that we are doing the same thing again that got us into this mess to begin with, financing homes with very little down, auto financing from GMAC (Ally) with the government bailing them out with tax payers money so they can finance Chysler and GM autos. The government continues to set up new programs of financing each day. Does anyone in Washington keep up with all these programs to be sure we are getting our monies worth and if any of them are working to straighten out this mess?
Now it seems that the government (taxpayers) has gotten itself into a mess begger with owning the largest amount of GM and a part of Chysler, trying to explain to our creditors that this is not a “buy America” deal!
LET THE REVOLUTION BEGIN.
Start a new holiday. Beat the crap out of a bankster day. Make THEM afraid to walk the streets. Make them shake in their shoes at the idea that they can make unrelated parties take the fall$$ for their misdeeds.
Is Obama really the President, when he won’t even produce his own birth certificate. If he has nothing to hide, then why is it an issue?
Produce it and put it to rest, or put him to rest as president!
The USA faces huge challenges, yet remember we are the innovator of modern capitalism. The strength of our citizenry resides in our resilience and ability to adapt our way out of difficulties. Our nation has always risen to challenges extremely well. Our work ethic is still one of the highest. After having traveled and seen how some other cultures think about work, I believe it is a mistake to bet against America. Our spirit and creativity is unmatched, the world over. China will give the USA a run for its money, to be sure. But I don’t know how many other nations will.
I am invested about 1/3 in gold and the rest in conventional stocks, some of which are ETFs in Chinese growth companies, others are in green tech.
I believe that America will survive by the Grace of God. However, the policies of the present Administration and Congress are making it more difficult. How can there be inflation when all of our taxpayer funds and those being generated by the printing presses are being poured into the financial “black holes”? The Full Faith and Credit of the U.S. is being severely tested. Thank for sharing your research.
I’d say the US (and other nations in sympathy) are setting the conditions for bull run in commodities such as oil and especially the precious metals. We haven’t had any interest in gold or silver for a full generation. Most investors today haven’t experienced the 60’s and 70’s rise in inflation. Real estate and tech have run their course. The next bubble will be somewhere no one is expecting right now. Once all this money printing and inflation hits the broad public’s mind, my guess it will be a repeat of 40 years ago.
Even with all the record “cash”printed it doesn’t come close to the 100 trillion lost in home prices and equities.
Since the debt of the US citizen has been collateralized as money(for credit etc) then we have had net loss in money supply, not inflation. Any printed money for Tarp,stimulus etc. Just went into a rathole to recapitalize the banks. How can there be inflation if the money never sees the light of day and is just used to fill potholes in bank books? Our DEBT has inflated, and the value of the dollars we owe in debt have inflated. But the dollar is not making any velocity and when the economy tanks again, there will be a rush to US dollars to delever speculative positions in commodities and other risky equities.
If the economy tanks again…
Basic logic precludes that going from 16m to 10m a year results in a 40% drop in not only car sales but also the parts that go into them. It looks that when our new order closes thousands of dealerships and when all the parts suppliers tank or downsize we could probably have at least another 100k unemployed. Tie this to the shadow housing market and the upcoming commercial RE market melt down I find it hard to see green shoots. The only green I see is that touted by the banking sector as they jury rig the books to turn toxic assets into paper profits. Get real, the other shoes has not fallen yet and please tell me where those 3 m new jobs are. The green shoots are black in my hood.
been reading you for years , the only thing i did right was buy gold and rare coins.
I wish I listened about real estate but Im Hung up there and miami is a hard sell.
So I still believe in commodities but 75% of my eggs are there Waiting for the parabolic
rise. Since joining your million dollar portfolio i’m concerened that your so far moves
are very conservative. ETF’s can do well but not ten times the money or a couple
of hundred times like your dads story. He took chances and if were going to make it
big its what we need to do soon. Is that where some of our saved ammo will go at
the right time? or will your reco’s remain conservative. The bond bubble interests me alot but how will we play this happening to score big. , Thanks ,Victor waiting to play
how can the U.S. A. go broke ? they have 8000 + tonnes of GOLD. CONVERT THAT TO MQNEY.
I study the BIBLE heavely. It is all there. I don”t think we have seen anything yet.From knee high to a duck . I was always told keep a tight control on the National Debt. You cannot borrow your way out of debt. I knew this was coming 3 and a half years ago. I think it amazes me the american people have not been told the truth yet! Europe 20/20 .com told us that far back. Iran opened there own oil distribution center ,selling oil for euro and yend. We have been living off the backs of the world for 40 years. Europe 20/20 said we will default on our currency mid summer 2009.
The only country that has ever compared to this country in the past is BELOVED ISRAEL in her hay day. As this country turns on Israel so will G-d turn on this country. I am a Christian but I LOVE my jewish Brothers and Sisters and I will stand with Israel come Hell or High Water. I think one of the best things that has happened to Israel is the election of Benjamine Netinyahu. The land for peace has never worked and G-d forbids it! If it had not been for the Jews in Israel the musalims would have killed each other off.I love my country U.S.A. I fought for it! But I LOVE the G-d of Israel More. Have a Blessed day!
dear martin, how america has become a land of bankrupt persons and corporates when people like you are living, why don’t you sue persons like allen greenpan
Why is it so many people when you discuss the dangerous financial road we are on say it will get better or I don’t want to talk about it? Technically the US govt. is bankrupt today. When will that translate to the man on the street? Are we facing massive private and public unemployment, if so when? With the B&G Printing Co. working 24 hrs how long till the dollar is worth less than a dime? If we are presently in the eye of the hurricane, when do we get part 2 of this storm? How much time do we have to gather hard assets to protect ourselves? How many financial institutions will go out of operation in the next 6 months? Your comments are appreciated. Thanks, John
Because (I guess) we can have deflation in our future I am 50% cash in an A- bank,and my brokerage account. and because I believe that we will have hypeflation by the 4h qtr. the other half is physical gold and silver eagles. 5% of my cash is not in the bank.
Do you think I should do differently?
Regards: RAY
Dear Martin,
I am retired and do not borrow any money and like to stay away from debts. I like to live in my means.
Regards
N. Bhattee
Martin,
I’ve followed your recommendations for several years now and been able to ‘weather the storm’ thus far. With the U.S. economy continuing to tumble I’ve found several bright spots in Asia – many involving commodities. Irregardless of what our President and Mr. Bernanke keep telling us, things are going to get a lot worse before they turn the corner and true recovery begins. I also believe that the “green energy” recovery is necessary but no where near the “quick fix” many folks believe it to be. Oil and natural gas will undoubtedly remain the primary sources of energy for many years to come and I’m betting on DXO and UNG as long-term vehicles to get us through the mess we’re currently in.
Jon
I feel we have blind people in office, who are leading the blind. Few of our democratic leaders have had any real job experience, and have never had to start a business from the ground up or make a payroll. I think these inept people have no idea what people want and their careless, and negligent spending of our money is driving us further and further into bankruptcy. But they dont seem to care about the individual person, as long as they have their dirty money from fannie mae and fannie mac and under the table from the lobbyist. I think our leaders are possessed by self gratification, greed and evil and they will have their day in Gods Court sooner or later so they better beware.
Dear D. Weiss, Many of my friends and business associates are losing hope, homes and long time family businesses including attorneys, dentist, car dealers, retailers, etc.,etc. Most of the banks are treating their longtime customers as enemies and loans are impossible to comeby. Many have discussed with me that their financial cushion might last another 6 to 9 months. Truly I have always prided myself in solving my financail problems overthe past 35 years but it appears that all levels of government are working against their citizens and compounding the crisis thereby eliminating my attempt to help myself. It appears that most folks are living in a dream world as to the seriousness of this finanical dilemma. I receive a daily email from a free site called Patriot Post which gives great insite to the beliefs, intelligence and hopes of our forefathers. I truly believe that the level of statesmanship, honesty, intergity, etc. of almost all our present elected leadership from local to federal is noway near the level of our forefathers. This situation is mostly due to apathy and major interference from the media with critism directed towards those who have the qualities mentioned who might would lead this country but refuse to be involved. May God give those of us that care the insight to protect and defend this wonderful country.
The train wreck to economic depression is right on track. We will survive but not due to government intervention but to American ingenuity and our gift to overcome adversity. Government does not know what it is doing and the people don’t really care.
I don’t see a recovery anytime soon. I think the banking industry is in serious trouble, and I don’t think our children should bear the burden of irresponsible government. My heart goes out to all citizens who have worked hard their entire life only to be left short changed by our so called leaders. GM will recover with time as a much leaner corporation,with new technology and a place in our future.
I dont even have to read the entire article to respond. Let me put this statement out there, How are we going to survive if we are in debt to China so much that Hilary Clinton is offering to give them “land” to pay them back what we owe them. “BUT”, she can go and give “millions” to Gaza ( “TERRORIST”) of our money. Oh! and now the “Sheiks that bailed our big banks out, WOW! Oh! did I forget the president that on April 21, 2009 joined us to the E.U. (now if we are a independent nation, how did obama (and why?) joined us to the European Union for? and all a sudden he is bragging about he being of muslim decent, you need to wake up and see what is really going on here people! I believe you need to read their quran (muslim bible) that they so strictly live by, their “peace” definition is NOT the same as ours, go to http://www.memritv.org you want to see how they feel about America and they will soon fly their flag over our whitehouse they chant, AND IT IS NOT JUST THE RADICAL TERRORIST YOUR STUPID NEWS MEDIA TELLS YOU, ITS ALL OF THEM!!!!! THEIR QURAN SAYS “ALL” SHALL BOW TO allah AND WE ARE INFIDELS AND SHALL BE KILLED, OUR HEADS CUT OFF AND HANDS AND FEET. READ THE QURAN AND SEE FOR YOURSELVES…. who is ignorant? that should be the question. Our goverment has gotten us in some serious trouble and we the little people out here are gonna suffer and pay for all their mistakes, we are already.. Why has CDC (center disease control) placed 500,000.00 disposable casket liners (that can hold 5 – 6 bodies been delivered to a piece of land in MA huh? if you need the video just go to utube you will find it there. whats really going on here in our country and who is really running OUR COUNTRY??? We see it is ok to do wrong and wrong to do whats right? It needs to be stopped and this country is not what the fore fathers fought for it to become, thats for sure, it is sad and a shame and a disgrace. People need to take a stand and WAKE UP! AND TAKE THIS COUNTRY BACK, it starts in the home, morals, values, the innocense of our children, get the filthy, nasty looking, things out of our stores/TV/radio/billboards/ out from here. Why are we selling sex and horror? look what it has done and filtered into this country, spread like a disease….and then get it out of our schools and go stand at the court house and back one another up on these issues until it gets out of here, this is the only way our country will survive. THE ONLY WAY! no amount of money is saving it, is it? exactly?
“Will US survive ?” Yes it will. But our future is probably similar to the track taken by Great Britain after WWII – more of the population wants socialism or a socialist leaning government – so = declining industries due to expensive regulatory compliance, increasing taxes, more government in all areas of life, less personal freedoms —- a nanny state.
tim gietner met with the chinese ,he said we would keep the us dollar strong and we where trying to reset our financial system. what he did was to admit the financial system is repeat is in serious trouble and gave no time frame to look forward to.he can not fool the chinese and any one else.good luck,william
Cynde and I believe the dollar is headed to zero value. We also believe that precious metals, copper, nickel and foreign currencies may be options. China is looking forward to buying tons and tons of copper for it exploding ‘modernization’ plan. We are looking at land out of the city and building a house as fast as possible (partially underground) with food storage before all *&^% breaks lose, using some of our dollars before they lose their value completely. We need a way to generate something of value to just pay the taxes. This government buyout is fascism. They are trying to usurp all water rights, giving huge parcels of our land to the U.N. and next will be the North American Union. Finally – the new currency for this union. Thousands more will be out of work, if not millions. They are undermining the constitution. Next is population control….in any way they can achieve it. You have offered us a way to capitalize on this terrible situation, and we thank God for that – but in the end, they will take everything away.
Bill
as long as we allow some people to print FRN that have no backing, I had a banker tell me years ago its only as good as you think it is . thats all its just bookkeeo ing entrys thanks Al Parker
Gold, silver and oil.
Survival time is just beginning.
Why did GM accumulate its mountain of debt? When it was successful, the government increasingly targeted the industry with many unfunded environmental, safety and labor laws. Here are two of the most agregious. First are the ever tighter cafe standards imposed on the industry that force development of expensive, unattractive vehicles that must be subsidized by the manufacturers to meet government-posed sales levels. Secondly, union pressures–backed heavy-handed federal government–for wages and costly benefit packages raised total costs beyond competitive prices at which Detroit could profitably sell its products. Now our government, to save the industry, is force feeding it giant doses of the same poison.
Martin,really sir I don’t know which way the economy is going and or whether G.M goes down and never comes back,the lession in their case is their foresight or lack of.Their design people must have noticed over the last two decades what and why people have been buying more japanese/korean vehicles and their market share was dwindling.This actually goes for all american vehicle makers,this has been on the horizon for many years ,it hasn’t just happened.You stay in business by making what sells,simple really.It took me two years of looking before I decided to replace my large car and buy an all wheel drive vehicle that didn’t handle like an APC, I looked at every domestic maker with no success, I really tried hard not to buy foreign but it came down to german or japanese.If G.M ever does raise it’s head again I hope for the peoples sake they bother to take into consideration what the future holds and what others are doing…….Des
Our economic downfall began when we agreed to free trade agreements, allowing American companies to export product technology and manufacturing know how to less developed countries (China/India), costing Americans thousands of jobs. Unions, who won high wages and benefits for unskilled labor can also accept some of the blame. Greed, government corruption and manipulation, lack of ethics, and the dumbing down of our educational system all contributed. America will survive if we take immediate action at the ballot box; we must return to the values of my parents World War II generation; cash for all purchases except for auto and homes. Less is more. Prayer and a return to our founding father’s beliefs are also very important.
I believe that the end game is for the US to be folded into a World Government, Economic authority and military, and the currency will be debased by at least 100 fold if not more. This will occur within the next 2 years or prehaps over the next 10 years. The US will exist in a sense, but not the US we all know and loved for years. There is no totally safe anything. It might be smart to hedge with commodities and gold, buy a farm and become as self sufficient as possible, join with other like minded individuals and create your own informal government by and for the people. Resist fiercely all and any attempts at a World Government and Economic Authority. It will be the biggest mistake possible for eternity.
The ups and downs of the markets only result in the gain and loss of money. Money can be made or lost rather easily. What is really at stake is the loss of free enterprise. The government now takes from the people and spends on whatever it wants without voter approval and their is no ending in sight. Thomas Jefferson said that “a people in fear of their government live in tyranny, and a government that lives in fear of the people lives in liberty.” Michelle Obama may say for the first time in her life she is proud to be an American and feels hope. I, for the first time in my life, am not proud of the mess that the government has put America into and I believe we are now beginning an era of tyranny.
Dr. Weiss:
I value your comments about the economy, but the market is currently on a bull run. We don’t know how long this will continue, but its been advantageous to play the long side, with, of course, some caution. Do you use any technical analysis in forming your outlook?
Thanks,
Al
Hi Martin, My husband and I are planning to sell our home and move closer to family. We live in Calif. Do you recommend we buy or rent? Home prices seem to be leveling off with fewer homes for sale. I am investing with your contrarian portfolio and since finding your service, I have very few sleepless nights anymore. Thanks, Donna
Martin,
All of this is unchartered ground for most of us and the building fear as to truly what to do with any money that we do have is getting to be an overwhelming fear. Personally I cannot believe how so many companies and institutions have, I guess, run their businesses so poorly. What ever happened to the “basics” of income vs expenses?
What happened with your / our petition that you were taking to Washington? Did you get an audience with anyone with any kind of political influence? Please let us know that status!
On the personal side, I know your company has investment opps which are great. For me and many others I am sure that committing funds that are required in those programs is as scary as the current crisis… so what should / could we be doing with any of the monies we do have? I don’t even feel good with my current banking relationship in paying my bills. I am fearful that ANY bank could be in the news at the drop of a hat so where do we turn for the basics of everyday life with our finances? Do we keep all in cash, not even invested in short-term treasuries etc and keep the cash “under the mattress”?
As my father used to say… “its pretty hard to remember that your objective was to clean the swamp when the alligators are biting at your ***!
Thank you for any good basic help and here’s to some more optimism returning to it all!
OK, Fritz was on TV this morning in his pink tie explaining why GM has declared Chapter 11 . He should be required to wear an obnoxious, polka dot bow tie like the rest of the Bozo’s who have managed this company into the ground over the last 40 years. Is anyone surprised that it took this long for them to fail? How did the one-time largest corporation in the world get to this point? Let’s roll back the calendar to 1971 to Motor Trend’s Car of the Year – the Chevy Vega! People wanted a small, economical, and dependable car and thought they could buy it from one of the Big 3. It would take an entire page to outline all the problems that GM designed into the Vega, but let’s look at one of the obvious ones – the engine. The engines had aluminum cylinder blocks and cast-iron heads. These engines suffered from a lack of durability. The cylinders scored, the heads warped, the valves burned, the valve seats cracked, the engines overheated, and they had major vibration issues. The same year, Toyota gave us an improved Corolla and Datsun delivered a 1200 Sedan that got 40+ mpg. GM grounded the aluminum engine block to the Vega’s frame. This caused body rust via “galvanic corrosion” an electrochemical process where one metal corrodes when it comes into electrical contact with a different type. This gained the Vega another title besides Car of the Year. It became the “car that started rusting while still on the showroom floor!” After the Vega success in the early 1970’s, GM built on their “never listen to the customer” mentality of product design. Over the next 40 years, GM delivered a never-ending string of funny-looking, poor-quality cars and trucks to the American consumer. . . “X”- cars, the Chevette, the Cadillac Cimarron and then the Catera, the Lumina, and more. And who can forget GM’s response to the “sport recreational vehicle” crowd…the Pontiac Aztek? Did they think that by spelling it funny people would be distracted from poor quality and goofy design? It looked like a deformed doorstop on wheels that came with an optional “conversion tent” that hung off the back so you could camp out wherever it broke down. And who could forget the “Transformer” truck…the Chevy Avalanche . . . half-rubber, half-metal, all ugly. And when Toyota was starting to crank out the Prius and define the eco-friendly vehicle of the future, what did GM respond with? That’s right, Hummers! The perfect vehicle for anti-socialists and soccer moms who don’t want to get stuck over a parking stone at the Mall. GM’s environmental callousness knows no equal in the auto world. They have carried it forth proudly right through to today with the availability of a GMC Yukon Denali Hybrid! Under the appearance of being “eco-friendly” GM is attempting to “greenwash” the American public into thinking that if you put a shiny “hybrid” sticker on the back, it’s OK to drive a gas-sucking, over-priced, socially irresponsible hog of a vehicle. So where is GM doing well? . . . in China! While American taxpayers are bailing out this dinosaur of a company, GM will be expanding operations in China. In fact, don’t be surprised when GM builds small cars and trucks in China and imports them back to the USA. Do you think that any of the profits that GM makes in China will be used to pay back the American taxpayer? Don’t hold your breath.
Visiting Walmart today all we saw was spanish speaking minorities and other welfare recipients . Add these people and others receiving government assistance or income of one form or another and what do you have left ? There is no question that this country is in a world of hurt and only a question of time before this country collapse’s !
In 1959 when I started my business I told my wife how wonderful it would be to some day retire and make $100 a week ! Do I need to say more ? prayers to all working people . Paul
We have naively allowed a class of politicians and banking elites to rule us into the global abyss of once great nations. We have traded eternal values and principles for the pragmatism of those who rule us. We must forge an intellectual revolution and take back this nation and pledge our fortunes to accomplish it. We will have to build great prisons and spend many a bullet to take down these traitors to the constitution.
If you and I (and numerous others) recognize the impending economic disaster coming if our government stays on its present course, how come the so-called “best and the brightest” (including Obama) don’t seem to recognize that the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train? How can we stop the insanity and encourage a change in course?
I am almost 89 years old. I have been following you an your advice for many years. Even met your father at a seminar you gave at Ft. lauderdale some years ago. His and you advice seemed solid. So, our small savings account is in your hands for management and so far has worked out, keeping it. It sure has not grown like we would have liked but we have not lost it, either. I am also a reader of Robert Prechter who, as you know, believes in cycles. I do not believe I will liive long enough to see the end of the “Greater Depression” but have tried to instill in my family your philsopny but peer pressure prevails, I guess. Thanks for your help and adice. BFJ
Martin,
Everyone has an opinion including me! My hopes are that our country make good decsions moving forward. If we rely on our short term history we’re in trouble. What I need to do is protect my family which includes protecting the capital I still have. I read most articles from Money and Markets which I find extremely stimulating. My recent investment strategy include precious metals, basic materials, energy and foreign markets; all currenlty producing positive growth. I plan to stay this path paying close attention to changes in the market. I have considered Inverse ETF, but not yet at this time. I will be listening June 3rd “Weiss Management” Webcast which I hope will give my a better understanding of things to come. The one and most important strategy that has benefited my most is to make sure I maintain a strong cash position relative to my portfolio. Thank you!
I am very worried for my family and my country. I don’t believe in paper, I’m turning to gold and silver.
I want to comment of my more dramatic prediction that our economy will totally collapse by NLT late 2010 resulting in riots and eventual anarchy. When this happens, IMO, Obama will declare a national emergency thus “temporarly” suspending the Constitution and resulting in martial law.
I 100% appreciate your investment philosophy. I have too questions:
1. Is getting a Reverse Mortgage on my home an alternative I should seriously look at? The objective would be to have a fall back place to borrow money only IF needed but really to hopefully never draw against the allowable equity? Or would it make more sense simply to take out a line of credit on my home as a “fall back position.” The major difference I see is that with the former, if I draw against my equity, I don’t have any monhtly requirement to pay on the loan but wait to pay when home is sold.
2. IMO, we who love our Constitutional Republic and a true free market system have no chance of winning either of these through the normal political process. I will share with you how I arrived at this conclusion during 2008.
It seems to me that our only hope is to form Local Homeland Secuirty Units in every USA County, working directly under or with Sheriffs. The long term mission would be to retosre our Constitutional Republic, with short term goals of letting the PTB in DC KNOW that We the People are ready to resist them in a meaningful way if they attempt to (1) confiscate our ammunition/guns and attempt to take we “radical” free market/Constitutionalists into “protective custody because we are potential terrorists” and plasce us in one of the numerous, well documented FEMA Reeducation/Retention Centers.
IMO, unless there are 3-4 million folks ready to use force if necessary to keep our liberties, it makes little difference how effective your investment stratgies are. In fact, I could make a strong case that you are UNPATRIOTIC given your recommendations to buy foreign bonds, no American Treasuries/Long Term Bonds, get out of dollar denominated investments, and even buy gold/silver and other metals. IMO, you and your great collegues will be in great danger of being on the top list of those neededing “reeducation.”
Your thoughts on this?
Doug
2.
Will America survive?
Yes, but not without a lot of suffering and eventual efforts at honest restructuring … by HONEST individuals!
How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
We’re fine. We won’t be affected too much, except for the rising cost of things. Some of our neighbors are being extremely affected, though. Loss of jobs, trying to sell their homes purchased near the $600,000 mark in the last couple of years for at least the money they have in them … an impossibility! We are being affected personally by the loss of extraordinary neighbors. As for us, we still owe a little on our home … but were able to close on a refinance at 4.5% interest last week. Amazing! My husband has a secure job with the county … their budget has recently been passed for the year ahead. We have no idea what next year will bring, but in the next weeks ahead, as well as the next many months ahead, we will be fine. He is also receiving a fine retirement from the federal government … (Since they have lots and lots of paper, we shouldn’t have to worry … right?!) … and I convinced him to liquidate as much as possible and put it in an A+-rated credit union. He refuses to “lower” his expectations enough to turn everything into cash. His father, however (at 92), is still playing the stock market, ignoring the advice of his broker (and me!) and continues to loose massive amounts each day. We have also “stocked up” our shelves … so when this anticipated sequel to the Great Depression hits, we should still be able to take care of ourselves, needing to buy very little.
Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
You definitely don’t want to hear from me on this one!
Physical silver is the way to go.
Im heavily into gold/silver: both physical and paper. I believe like Jim Rodgers/Marc Farber, that a currency event is going to occur in the US and many other 1st world countries in the coming decade. Hyperinflation is NOT a demand-pulled event, it is a LOSS of confidence in a fiat (gov’t decreed) currency. Im siding on 5000+ years of history. Im a novice when it comes to options, shorting and such and want more of a safe haven than max investment returns. Silver has gone up almost 25% in one month, but there is more volitility in silver (poor man’s gold) than gold. However historical means are usually 15 oz of Ag to 1 oz of Au. I think the other investments can be great hedges, but you have to know what you are doing extremely well.
Geesh, with all the bailouts, the Fed’s printing out all that worthless money day and night, American companies closing up shop, all the unemployment, etc…. why would anyone think that they would be investing in anything American? Are there really that many American companies left here, and what’s left is owned by the Government? It seems that only the foreign companies in America are immune to failure?
The dollar is already worth less than a dime. What used to cost $1.00 in 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created now costs $21.57. And it’s only going to get worse.
Solution? Investments in precious metals, Swiss Francs (FXF) and the Canadian dollar (FXC).
Will America survive? The answer depends on the time frame under consideration. Just like the long-term growth rate of all organisms necessarily has to be zero, so too is the long-term survival prospects of all empires nil.
The real question is how long will America survive? Warnings signs of imminent demise abound: Ex-immigration, a declining population; skewed priorities–from dogs as people, to sports stars as heros; belief that something can be had for nothing; ignoring the rising powers across the globe; mountains of debt simply because we wanted bright shiny new things even as we needed nothing; an obesity epidemic reflecting the inability to suffer even the whisper of a hunger pang; the idea that a post-racial culture and economic “animal spirits” are not incompatible; a populace that refuses to serve in its defense, depending upon what amounts to a mercenary military.
There are many more. I see them everyday. The sad truth is that America is pushing the accelerator of her demise to the floor by refusing to acknowledge the dangers that two fat decades at the pinnacle of power have wrought. We have willingly traded freedom and responsibility for an illusion of security provided by a nanny Federal government and a money-printing Federal Reserve. America might have survived a thousand years had she not so quickly grown so fat, lazy and stupid.
I’d give her half a century, tops, in her present configuration.
WE HAVE GIVEN TO MUCH MONEY TO BANKS WITHOUT ANY REGULATION. GM, CHRSLER,AND FORD HAS BEEN THE LIFE BLOOD OF THE USA.
It is not a surprise to me that GM imploded. The philosophy of corporate America since the early 80’s has been ( I call it the “accountants revolution” to operate on a qtr by qtr basis. American CEO’s stopped the manufacturing process, maximized profits by all means of accounting processes, both illegal and legal. They had nothing left for a “rainy day”, everything that could be pushed to the profit side of the ledger was.
I kept saying, ” but the king has no clothes on”, I was fired, ridiculed, and told, “you have no business sense, or that is not how it works.” They broke a fundamental rule of business, “nothing is going to happen, until someone sells and someone buys.” They have destroyed ” customer service “, because you have to “watch your labor” to be profitable. I am not sure what math formula they used to come up with this philosophy, but you cannot go 1000 miles on 1 gallon of gas ! Sorry about that rant, I have a lot more bottled up, it never needed to come to all this. When fund managers started dictating to corporate America, corporate managers gave up the control of their companies, for what were, “bribes.” They destroyed the economy, putting millions of people out of work, and trampling their dreams into dust ! The government was complicit in all this, by taking off the brakes so the car would run a little faster. I’ll stop here. Thanks for indulging me,
Martin J. Hens
i suspect the g.m. bankruptcy is similar to the fall of saigon in 1975. it portends structural changes in the economy and society that are more than a secular bear market.
it is similar to the problems in health care. everyone needs a car and a doctor, resources are lost in finding them and much life is wasted. can we afford these loses?
t. parker,m.d.
I am a retired individual. most of my retirement money is in the government FERS AND TSP accounts. I have asked a couple times your opinion of these accounts. Ido not know how safe and profitable they are there.
In reference to the debt that the Obama administration is building I believe it is absolutely an act of financial suicide. Government money is one-sided in that it does not come from a demand for goods from a profit based source that can generate jobs and product. Government money comes from taxes and taxes do not generate jobs or a product that can be sold at a profit to generate and support jobs, pension and health plans, and capital for company growth. It’s really that simple. The thought that taxes can be used as a “stimulus” is simple minded, foolish, and very, very dangerous. Perhaps the goal of the administration is a covert attempt to bankrupt the nation so that taxes can be levied at extremely high rates giving the government complete control. This is certainly where all of this financial foolishness is headed so is it by incompetence or design? Either way there is only a very short time left to stop this runaway financial mess before it cannot be turned around. Hopefully the American public will recognize the dire consequences of this administrations actions and truncate its power base in the upcoming senatorial races.
Hey martin thnak you for all your insight…I was just wondering I have found an exploration compnay with a tremendous value in teh ground(duluth metals)How do you think this crisis will affect such companies as they will probably need credit to further the company into production stage or would they be better off as a takeover target?Also I am in a closed end fund paying almost 20% dividend what are your thoughts on that as well?thnak you in advance and best to you and your staff
My biggest concern is that I don’t want to lose anymore of my hard earned money. Do I bite the bullet and take my money out of my IRA now and bury it in my backyard? or do I roll it over into a gold IRA? Silver? Coins? Copper? What do we do to keep what we have left? By guns and bullets and barter with them? Help!! I’ve heard that even gold will be worthless, is this true?
I’m looking at all this mess from Europe. My brief question is: What is your personal opinion for the future of the EURO. Will the European currency suffer as well from inflation peril? Or will it be the economical loser from a moldering Dollar? Will the end of the Dollar be the start of a new “world currency”? And – what if – there is only one global currency? I know – the answer may fill books……
I am trying to do my part to “wake up” America to our 80 plus years of socialism. Some people are listening. But now I am asked the question “What can I do to take my country back”? How can I stop the politicians (Democrats and Republicans) from destroying our country with their spending programs? There are many apathetic voters because it seems that activist groups and lobby groups are running the show. Working people like my wife and I have their paychecks taxed and pay sneaky fees placed on phone, cable and other bills – all in the name of “This is good for America and good for the People”. Please give me some insight on what to do to stop the gov’t spending programs and force the gov’t to live within its means.
Oh,Martin.
Stock markets sometime has nothing to do with what the economy is doing.
Your analysis is good for the long term,not for the sort one.
It’s a trial and error procces.
Traders want sort term prophecies.
Yours,
Nick
I believe that the US government is headed for complete collapse. The government’s spending spree will lead to devaluation of the dollar. This in turned can lead to starvation, rationing, crime sprees. Is it to late to turn this around?
The president is talking about socializing healthcare. We cannot afford this! He is talking about raising taxes! Isn’t that the worse thing you can do during a recession/depression??
During the Great Depression people lived on farms. They knew how to feed themselves off the land. This generation does not know how to do without a grocery stores.
rate for 10 year treasury is up, GM went bankrupt. Why market rally? Is it to lure people in?
I find it incredible that the market has baked into it the GM bankruptcy. Or has it? The market has not fully felt the impact of the unemployment that will result with the bankruptcy not to mention the negative impact on GM retirees with their pensions and healthcare resulting in considerably less disposable income for those people.
Weiss Research,
We won’t survive. We will be carved into sectors and factions that will own every part of us—even the air will be difficult to breathe and perhaps metered.
I have been saying for a couple of years that this country is like a loaded freight train that is headed at a marble mountain, and the people at the controls will argue over who has the right to pull the brakes until the collision happens. When I look at the condition of this country as a whole, I suspect we’re very close to a collision.
Will we survive? Its hard to tell. If our leaders keep spending at the same rates then no. But I would assume they will wake up soon as Martin has predicted. In the mean time I expect they will continue to spend willy nilly under current economic leadership but as soon as the stock market crashes it will be obvious that the current economic leadership (thinkers and leaders) simply have misinterpreted what the Fed and government can do or its power to effect a change.
I don’t have the slightest doubt that they are just starting to realize this now even with the stock market rising. But certainly when it falls they will realize it with a very heavy certainty as all of society will come to realization that the something wrong everyone feels is truly that something is wrong. There was and is too much debt! Period! More debt won’t solve the problem. I find it amazing that these students of history and politics and law (our political and economic leaders) don’t realize the lessons so plainly and simply exhibited. My Dad taught me all these lessons and he was no genius. Just a hard working guy that got through the depression. Now our top economists/Fed governors don’t even understand the concept of too much debt. Isn’t it amazing the government didn’t accomplish the one thing it should be good at i.e. controlling rampant business. I’m inclined to think there is simply no way to set up a government which would control excessive debt and excessive debt causing activities.
Our survival depends upon when our leaders recognize the problem. I think that will be after an unbelievably fast collapse of the stock market ( or better termed debt markets).
Only then will leaders acknowledge what has happened. Although Obama appears to be a very intelligent and honest man he obviously doesn’t see the light at this point.
I think different financial vehicles will contain profits at different moments ahead. I suspect it will be extremely difficult to tell which ones will provide profits at which point.
I’ve calls on TBT-Long on GLD- Sept calls on DIA. I need more timing insight on the
new currency. What timing signs should we be lookiing for?
My Greatgrandfather had no education, no plumming, no car. My Grandfather had no education, an outhouse, and a T model Ford, but no TV. My Father had everything but education and a computer, but he made sure his two sons did. My sons became a computer expert and a Neurosurgeon. My point is, we are getting better because of our children. Out there, somewhere, are young people who will get through this and come out even better and have things that we have never heard of today. That is what I see!!!!
I believe that you have hit the nose on the head. Awhile back you recommended putting cash into Treasury bills, which I have started doing–I hope that I heard you right, since t-bonds seem to be in no-wheres-ville–Don
In answer to the question….What am I doing to prepare for the upcoming inflation scenario?
Bought a house with room for extended family to stay in an emergency.
stocked up on foodstuffs good for five years
generator on site
getting rid of debt
buying gold/silver
getting my health care taken care of
trade my yukon for a hybrid
Good day Martin;
Ok try this on for size….the US $ gets devalued, high end manufacturing returns to the US, the US exports become more competative and the US exports their way out of this mess.
Joseph
Our problems started when our forefathers didn’t hold the government responsible as all three branches ignored the Constitution. We citizens can read the plain English guarantees in the Constitution. We need to express outrage when a few people in a black robe interpret it in a way that is 180 degrees from what was intended. Our only hope for the future is that we throw out all government officials who violate their oath to uphold the Constitution and replace them with people who do. By the way, our representatives should not be allowed to profit by going to congress on our behalf. If they are not successful enough to pay their own expenses, then let someone who is personally responsible represent us. Do yourself all a BIG favor and read “The 5000 Year Leap”!!!!!
Hi,
If Japan and Germany made it after WWII, I am sure US can get up and run again, with its best asset educated, research oriented and entrepreneur minded people.
Important thing is to look where you made a mistake and not to repeat it.
The question really is how deep US economy will fall before realizing that old ways don’t work anymore. US created a global new economy, geometrically growing based on consumption increase. The big problem today is the more waste we produce, is better we are financially as a whole.
Environmental impact became a real problem..I for example imported 30Cent USD toys from Europe, Europeans received them all the way from China, then they came to Turkey, Than I distributed them, a kids parent bought it from a vending machine and children played with it for a few minutes and down it goes to waste… OK we all made money and wealth on it but at the cost of polluting our world only…The more we succeed, the more we all pollute.
Similarly electric cars were around for decades but which government will accept to live without the tax they receive from gas sales.? In Turkey 1/3 of all tax collected is from cars and gas related sales.
I am personally very happy this current global crisis happened as we gave the world a pollution brake for a few months, maybe years..
My point is even if this economic system recovers, it is not sustainable at the cost of our biggest and only real physical investment ….A breathable WORLD.
I also want to share an excellent joke about debt driven economy with you:
A rich Russian arrives to a Town Hotel. Wants to check and see the rooms first..leaves a 100USD at the desk and goes upstairs… The hotel owner quickly picks the 100 USD and pays the butcher what he owes…Butcher pays the grocer, grocer pays money he owes to hooker, and hooker takes the 100 USD bill and pays the hotel manager what she owes for a room…
Russian comes down and says he will not stay at the hotel and gets his 100 USD back and leaves the town… But everyone is happy as they all paid their debts…
Does this town sound familiar??
Not sure how “big picture” you entertain. What possible goal could our government (liberals) have to bankrupt this country? Could it simply be for power? While this goal seems very narcissistic, what would the far reaching consequences be?
Hello Martin:
I listen to a LOT of US radio, and see a lot of US news. I feel so helpless, because I want to help. Your Money and Markets, are the first I read each day; I have tremendous respect for you and your firm. I no longer have funds in any markets, but now only in term Dreposits with Credit Unions.
It’s as if I’m watching an ongoing afternoon “Soap Opera”. My common sense has always seen me through, and my opinion is a dire dilema ahead.
It is difficult not to understand the cheer leader position of the government not wanting to accept that the Team USA is in trouble. So they continue to cheer ahead in what seams an incredible delusion. In my view it appears that it would have been much better to recognize and accept the dire conditions and then come with a plan to help alleviate the pain of unemployed citizens and embark in an infrastructure creation (which is an investment that in the long run will produce economic benefits), increased funding for renewable energy, education and health also productive investments. But the craziness of bailing out big banks and big companies does not seem to allow the system to cleanse itself and bring out new life.
On the investment side, I agree with Clauss that the economic fundamentals do not warrant the market behavior so, I, do not understand why take a loss now when in the very near future the system will have to correct itself. Please explain?
What is Mr. Geithner doing in China to maintain the value of the dollar? What is China’s new role as an economic giant?
I dislike investing in Gold since it does not produce anything and does not help anybody but what else is there?
Perhaps unemployed folks will start their own businesses and perhaps local economies will begin to thrive – what is your thinking regarding new investment possibilities when you think out of the box? How many of the large companies will actually survive in their current form?
I thank for opportunity to make a comment…. the fact is this counrty is lost and is already bankrupt….. We have very limit options as a people and a country, and very little time to turn things around…which saddens me deeply for all my countrymen.
“He who controls the money, controls everything and everyone else!”
I will not put the blame on just one person, the president, if congress didn’t accept the policies they wouldn’t be voted in by them! The bottom line is that the money masters are the ones that have been pulling the strings all along while this complacent society sits in the pan while the heat is being raised a little bit at a time and no one seems to be feeling anything! The constitution was written to keep tyrants and traitors from taking over, but unfortunately those are the ones that are running this country that have made it just another piece of paper! They have trampled the constitution and sold themselves and the American people to the elite, for a piece of the pie….money!
God is the only one that can save this country, but he needs people of action like the founding fathers that were willing to die to live in a free society not persuaded or influenced by the power hungry, greedy tyrants in England!
Dr. Weiss,
I was thrilled to see you on the Glenn Beck show last night! Glenn and his audience need to read your new book. I think they would better understand the “craziness”,
as Glenn puts it. I hope they give you more air time having you back in the near future. I will email Glenn next! Keep up the good work! You were great!
I personally am investing in ETF’s. Your book has been a great help to me. Thank You!
I AM GLAD TO TELL YOU WHAT I THINK. GENERAL MOTORS WENT THE ONLY WAY IT COULD GO AFTER GIVING INTO THE
RELENTELSS DEMANDS OF LABOR FOR WAGES THAT WERE TO HIGH FOR THE BLUE COLLAR WORKER-NOT COLLEGE GRADUATES– FOR HIGHER AND HIGHER WAGES, RETIREMENT BENIFITS, VACATION LEAVE, SICK LEAVE-PAID – AND MEDICAL BENIFITS FOR THEIR WHOLE FAMILES AND PROPABLY SOME MORE THINGS TOO.. IN 1954 I GRADUATED FROM A PRFESSIONAL SCHOOL WITH A PROFESSIONAL LICENSE FROM A TOP UNIVERSITY AND WAS ABEL TO OBTAIN A JOB THAT AMOUNTED TO $2.25 AN HOUR AND A 54 HOUR WEEK WITH ONLY A 2 WEEK VACATION OFFERED . AT THAT TIME THE UNITED AUTO WORKERS HAD JUST SIGNED A CONTRACT FOR $18.75 PER HOUR PLUSS ALL THE OTHER FREEBIES. TODAY THE UNITED AUTO WORKERS DRAW FROM $45.00 TO $60.00 PER HOUR PLUSS ALL THE REST. I AM TELLING YOU THAT I RETIRED 90 % AT AGE 59 AND 100 % AT AGE 65. MY POINT IS THAT I WORKED LONG AND HARD FOR WHAT I EARNED AND DID NOT SIT ON MY RUMP LETTING SOME BIG TOUGH LABOR MAN TELLING ME WHAT AND WHEN TO DO AND HOW MUCH I HAD TO PAY HIM FOR TELLING ME WHAT TO DO.TO RETURN THE U A W THEIR FAVOR I BEGAN TO DRIVE A MERCEDES SOME YEARS AGO. GENERAL MOTORS AND CHRYSLER WERE BROKEN BECAUSE OF THE U A W AND THEIR LONG HAND IN OUR POCKETS. I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE THE UAW PRESIDENT–A MR, GITTENFINGER SERVE AS A DRICETOR OF G M AND SEE HOW HE WOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION. THE UNION THUGS SHOULD BE ABEL TO SEE ALL THE AUTOMOBILES AND ANY AND EVERYTHING COMING IN OUR COUNTRY EITHER MADE 100 % OFF SHORE OF ASSEMBLED THEIR. NOW WE HAVE A PRESIDENT BEING TOLD WHAT TO DO BY UNION BOSSES AND THEIR MEMBERS WITH THHEIR VOTES. WE ARE IN A HELL OF A SHAPE/ESS. ARTHUR HILL—TEXAS—
I’m very concerned as a Senior Citizen that there will be no Social Security or Medicare for any of us that are on these two programs now. I am disabled, have a handicapped daughter, and my husband is retired. We can we expect in the coming weeks, months, and years. We are concerned that we and everyone else that are in the same boat as we are in will be in the soup line within the next year. We do have a little 401K but it is in an annunity and can’t be taken out for 1 1/2 yrs. but we feel with all these years of paying for Social Security and all the other things we paid for that we would be taken care of the rest of our life. We want to know when Medicare and Social Security will be reviewed and fixed like everything else needs to be done. The people in the USA have gone to Hell in a Handbasket. Obama and his cohorts including some Republicans are nothing but (Left Wing Radical Muslim Communist). Obama is trying to take the US to the bottom of the barrel and will not stop until it is done unless we as Americans stand up to him and his evil scoundrels. More TEA PARTIES and more standing up to the Governors and Senators of our state and at the White House.
Over the past several years I have worked hard to increase my business but have taken on debt to do so. I now see that I need to significantly reduce that debt. I need your help on whether I should use my profits to pay off debt or invest…your input would be greatly appreciated. I honestly have no idea where this economy is headed but I do know that Larry Burkette of Crown Financial Ministries predicted this downfall calling America a house of cards.
thanks,
Martin-
1. Will America survive? Yes, but not as we have known it.
2. Rising interest rates and money-printing will negatively impact my income when people get so scared they stop spending on all but food, clothing & shelter. I’m almost all in gold/silver & short t-bills so that has best chance of weathering the coming storm.
3. Investments I expect to spin off profits next are gold & silver, metals stocks and companies with strong balance sheets that own assets you can touch in inflationary times, including oil & gas stocks.
I am keeping it simple, living cheaply,and preparing for hard times. We have gone soft as a nation to the point of following a demagogue over the cliff…
I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but…I think that at some point, China, who is keeping our economy alive, by continually “loaning” us money will get fed up. It will either call the loan which would bankrupt the country immediately, or it will just stop loaning money. Both scenarios pretty much end up the same way. They could very well end up owning much of America. Other countries who have been “loaning” (giving) us money may also call the loans and end up owning parts of the country, too. Unless Obama finds a REAL way to jump start the economy (as in enabling the “little guy” and not trying to control everything), our future doesn’t look very promising. The ONLY way I can see to get the economy going is to get people jobs so that they will spend money. Most of us need to hoard the little we have now.
I am 87 yrs old so do not worry about future investments. I have counseled my two boys though to buy gold/silver and emerging nations stocks. I also like microsoft long! Study and observation of current events will help investors of future!
I admire your research and if younger would subscribe.
L.Averill
Hi Martin,
I have a question regarding your portfolio.
Is there a minimum dollar figure that needs to be invested to make up for the transaction fees. I am concerned that a small amount may be consumed by transaction fees.
Thank you,
should i keep my currency in U.S dollars or convert to other currencies say the canadian dollar
I am wondering if I can buy some investment products on-line without having a stock broker or person to handle the accounts. I have never invested before. I had a home which I will sell soon. I borrowed a lot to help a disabled child and can’t live in the home any longer, and now the price has fallen. I don’t have the money to invest much, in fact, am having a touch time. When I sell the home I may wish to invest in some products.
How can I this on-line and how can I start learning about how to understand if I am ahead or losing. I need to learn a lot, but realize that this is very important.
Marilyn
Martin,
I was born in 1934, the son of a US Army Air Corp three striper, who enlisted in 1928, when he didn’t know where breakfast was coming from that morning. He retired 30 years later as a colonel with a Command Pilot rating, after which he worked as a stockbroker long enough to put together a solidly profitable portfolio of municipal bonds. Those years were America at its best.
I grieve for America’s future. I am a committed Christian believer and Bible student. I have witnessed the prophetic return of the Jewish people to their homeland, and have spent some time there. I recently finished my third reading of the Bible, concentrating on the prophecies now being fulfilled in Israel. The enemies of Israel in the prophsied battle of Armageddon are easily identifiable by anyone familiar with the history of Israel. The U.S. was a major benefactor of Israel from 1948 to very recent times. Obama and Clinton are rapidly erasing that relationship. I have searched diligently for any mention of the U.S. in their future, and found none. And now Pravda, with accuracy, is ridiculing us for our rapid left turn into socialism.
For the last eight months my investments have consisted entirely in precious metals, rare coins and mining stocks.
As Pravda said”the American descent into Marxism is happening at breath taking speed”.
But the American public doesn’t seem to care. They’ll only wake up when the economy goes down the drain and no longer functions. Then Paulson’s comment about martial law will seem as prescient as Martin’s analyses. But it’ll be kinda late. I’m a little guy with half my money in T-bills (uh-oh?) and perhaps 15% in gold coins and gold ETFs. I think the liberal indoctrination in our schools has done the intended job. A poorly educated citizenry is controllable.
4 oz. of gold for a 100k portfolio ain’t nothing. should be at least 10. today GM, tomorrow, America. goodbye U.S.A.
Martin,
I am surprised that you keep pounding the same old drum. As long as we have an administration and congress bent on spending and taxing we will move ever closer to becoming a third world nation. You supported the man and his party. Did you not do your homework, or were you one that also drank the Kool-aid?
I just read Nick Guarino’s multi-page article which states that gold is about to crash to
$300.00 by 2010. He states that housing, autos, and many other consumer items are cheap and getting cheaper as the current depression deepens. Also, there is little chance for inflation in this environment. Do you agree/disagree? Thank you.
You have asked if America will survive, and I believe the answer is the word that is too scary to utter…”no.”
You have been advising the purchase of short-term Treasury bills, assuming that because the nation never defaulted during the Civil War, it won’t default during the coming crisis. I think that is a mistaken notion.
I’m heavy on precious metals looking for high inflation which will be provided by our president and his gang of fools.
As subscriber to Safe Money all I can say is I wish everyone did. Thanks
America has been the most prosperous and powerful nation in the world because of our Constitution and the freedom it provides. It defies reason to think that increased government intervention, higher taxes, more regulations and the crazy monetary policy will lead to anything other than economic chaos. I am looking for conservative leadership who respects the Constitution, rule of law and capitalism. Until then, I am not just a bear but a Polar Bear.
Welcome to the NWO,
Constitutional America was the last speed bump on the road to world government and it is now being taken apart piece by piece. The unconstitutional “Federal” Reserve Bank has over time bled America white, and now wants to become the “World Bank”.
As long as Congress is in session no one’s life,liberty or property is safe!
This phrase has more truth today than ever before.
Support Ron Paul’s HR 1207 (with 179 co sponsers) to audit the Fed, & expose it’s role in this criminal take-down!
Gold/silver has always been valuable.
Fiat currency, in time, will always become worthless.
Martin ~
I am a small time investor in the stock market (formerly known as Anheuser-Busch until it was recently purchased by InBev) and a small time investor in a diversified mutual fund/stock portfolio through Ameriprise. So, I’ve only dipped my big toe and tested the market thusfar in my life. I’m 47 and I have a wife and one 10 year old daughter. I don’t really have a question that can be answered, but I’m extremely concerned with all of the sensationalistic things which are happening in our economy. This situation with GM just reinforced the stresses I have. What are your thoughts on how we continue to pile up debt as a nation and we have to pass it on to our kids?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts!
Doug Brandon
dougbrandon1962@yahoo.com
Dear Martin,
I expect America to survive even its government!
Specifically, I expect certain sectors to do very well.
Namely, agricultural products and supplies, energy and drillers etc., precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and uranium), WATER, and eventually good farm land.
The banks, brokerages, and other cheaters will suffer some big setbacks. At least, I hope they will.
There will be exceptions. Wells Fargo will do well. Annaly.
Retailers that sell cheap like Costco, Walmart, Kmart, Dollar Stores will do well.
Chocolate makers and booze distillers should do well. Same with tobacco sad to say.
Big and little bakers and grain deals should do fine.
BUT
all bets are off if our money fails…meaning hyperinflation becomes rampant.
With no means of transaction available to replace the dollar America can not survive.
Even a Euro or Yuan or Yen or a basket of currencies is better than a dead dollar.
I understand Obama’s postion. He and his party believe they have a mandate to
save the bastards who caused this mess. Wrong! We all were completely sick of G. W. and his criminal behavior and his secret governing techniques. While Obama is open he is making some wrong moves I fear. I like the guy. But he is bankrupting the Treasury to save industries that need to be in bankruptcy court.
Finally, I see no way that America can survive if it keeps living beyond its means..either individually or as a government. What I do see is the government seizing private assets to pay for public bailouts. I am talking of IRA’s and 40l’s. Don’t think it can’t happen. Think Brazil, Argentina, etc. It can happen. When governments get too desperate they will do anything to survive. Never mind that they caused the situation. They will survive even if private funds don’t.
So.
Gold and Silver and stashes in Switzerland will not survive if Uncle gets desperate.
It is for the greater good. Yeah.
Panama and Austria are beginning to look very inviting.
Your advice from Weiss is only valid if the government does not change the rules.
One last thing: What I see next is that to ’solve this crisis’ we will need a BIG war to put everyone back to work. It worked before with WWII. It worked for a while even with a little war, Iraq and Afghanistan. Will it work with N. Korea and/or Iran?
Keep in mind that we are broke as a nation. What happens if we try to fight a big war with no money or credit? At some point we get defeated big time and have to leave
hundreds of billions in war materials in some far off place. And America is then left unprotected. That is not good. What’s worse is having no way to get our troops home again. Think Dunkirk. Ooops!
All this is just a big theory..based on historical precedents.
What will happen is just a guess.
What I hope will happen is that our government will awaken and see that throwing good money after bad is not good for the country or business.
Aloha, Tom
GM is no different than the American public. If their is a dollar to borrow, lets do it. With easy credit. why not take the cruise, we’ll just use the credit card.
For many years when the Japanese were building thier economy, the savings rate was at 20%. We americans must and should reduce our morgages and loans to the point where one paycheck per household will maintain our standard of living. Consumption should not and cannot be the driving force behind our economic growth, because if it is, there will not be any r&d for new and exciting products for the future.
Don Jorgenson
would you be a seller of irish banks….bank of ireland and allied irish banks
Mr. Martin Weiss,
It’s very sad for America because we are drowned in the MEGA DEBT. I hope America will survive, only God knows tomorrow. Of course, printing money will decrease the purchase power. I won’t be surprised to witness the coming INFLATION. I love this country, and it’s so frustrating seeing hard working people and retiring people get hurt. As a rule of thumb, I have always tried to live below of my means. I am not an investor by trade, but I sense that any things we need to live on or survive with would be the common sense choices.
I am the new Money Safe Subscriber at your researched company starting this month. I appreciate your passionate voice in this time of market crises to steer people away from dangerous stocks. I have not gotton any of your recommened stocks yet because I am not so
familiar with them yet. But believe me, I won’t hesitate to buy when I understand what I am buying.
Transformational times. Creditor nations questioning the U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency and /or Americas strength to offer fair value on it’s debt. I have no confidence the Fed isn’t in addition to it’s Q.E. , also purchasing directly or indirectly contracts or derivatives in the equity markets. Politically, traditional alliances are challenged and dangerous olive branches are being offered to adversaries. America is being fundamentally altered under the guise of crisis intervention. World bodies and agencies are going to trump domestic authorities. The IMF, G20, & Creditor Nations will call the shots. Elections have consequences, sometimes catastrophic. I think globalizing ones portfolio and investing in things that hurt when dropped on your foot will outperform. I would also like to understand more how to succeed with currency market investments.
From the UK, in no great shakes either, I’d bet on the US recovering before we do. Of course, the far east may become wealthier, but the US is an entrepreneurial nation, it still has a relatively business-oriented hands-off Government compared to Europe for example [despite the $13trn!]. Whether indexes can any longer be relied on to grow is more doubtful. Perhaps stock picking like Buffett is the long term answer. Stable politics is a big bonus for the US. I’ll probably put all my cash into a world index and forget about it at some point in the next couple of years!
PRECIOUS METALS WILL PROBABLY BE THE COMMODITY THAT WILL PULL AMERICA THROUGH ALTHOUGH WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO IT, THE ONLY THING THAT WE REALLY NEED ARE FOOD AND SHELTER BUT THE METHODS BUY WHICH WE EXCHANGE THE FOOD WOULD PROBABLY BE GOLD AND SILVER EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF BARTERING OR EVEN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO GO BACK TO OUR ORIGINAL CURRENCY TYPE WHICH IS GOLD AND SILVER COINS. IT WORKED IN THE PAST AND IT WILL WORK IN THE FUTURE
Will those holding GMAC Smartnotes lose all their investment?
Folks,
Martin is right. Socialism is wrong. The new administration is clearly practicing socialism in its finest form. See Wikipedia.com and take a look at the definition of socialism and note not the similarity, but the exact roadmap upon which the new administration is relying. You have to own GOLD and SILVER. The equity market bubble will pop. We are witnessing a classic suckers rally that will end at some point, who knows when, but it will end. New lows are in the future and when they come, all the talk of green shoots, a bottom and the end of the recession will end until the next suckers rally. If these were normal recessionary problems, the pundits would be right. The bottom would be in. But this is not an ordinary recession and it is going to last 10 years no matter what they finally decide to call it. Remember, the experts in 2007 said there would be no recession… they were wrong then and the 90% of economists who are predicting the end of the year 2009 as the end of the recession are WRONG… just like they were in 2007. I must be getting old as this is becoming so obvious…
How are puts and calls designated on the volume and price of a stock (bought, sold or not shown)
I truly believe we have lost our way as a country. What saddens me most, however, is how few see the freight train coming that will forever alter our way of life. Call it perpetual optimism, call it denial, call it projecting the past into the future – whatever you want to call it, it is sad that so many are so oblivious to change, and by default are letting it happen. God Bless what used to be America.
Hi Martin:
I hear what you are saying about the hole we are digging ourselves as our treasury keeps printing more and more money and how this expansion of the money supply will result in horrific inflation. But on the other hand, through this economic and housing collapse we have seen historic money destruction. People here and in other countries have seen their investments, real estate, stocks and bonds, shrink in value. Yes this is a huge redistribution of wealth, but don’t these factors offset each other? Our Treasury is just pumping the money back into the system that had previously evaporated so deflation doesn’t take hold.
The only element of our capitalism today that is not relatively dishonest is the entrepeneurial sector. The public companies, major industries and unions cannot compete and make a profit unless they cheat by misrepresentation, lying and stealing. The financial sector is at the acme of this fraudulent pyramid and, oh yes, the government permeates every level of fraud one can imagine.
Hype has worked well in duping a naive and insulated American public but it will not wash – especially in the Far East. More and more we are left with nothing but hype to sell to others and I stand in amazement of the brazen emmissaries we send overseas to peddle our faulty wares. Hype is what we know best.
We have neither the gumption nor the moral fiber to check our excesses or scheming ways. Our dishonesty has become a way of life – economically, socially and politically.
Anyone care to guess where we are headed?
M Merhige Miami, Fl
I think its simple….the US govt is assuming massive debt with the intention of never paying it back, dollar for dollar. They ll change the rules …..restructure the debt….file for ” govt bankruptcy ” but still stay in business…..I m not smart enough to figure out the dynamic……how about you ? bloggers
Martin, you have got me throughly confused. There is all of this negative comentary, then yesterday you come out with buy recs. on two stocks. I am well in the hole with your ETF recs. and you’er now saying you are ready to sell them. How about a better game plan?
You are entirely correct in your assesment of where the whole worl’d’s economy is headed. However, the situation is far more serious than you will admit, for fear of causig a real panic. Every day it is looking like the pattern for this catastrophe is following that of the book of Revelation. We could well be living in the time of the end of this particular civilization. There have been many before that built up glorious buildings and then disapeared from sight, leaving only a few ruins for later acheologist to dig up. This one may be no different. The oil powered machinery has taken us from the horse and buggy in less than a century. It has made it possible to destroy much of this planet. When this is all over the survivors – There will not be many will have to go back to the traditional way of travel . By foot, or if lucky, by horse power. The History channel ran a program on what the earth would look like in succesive years if it were without humans. Others are thinking my way also——-
We will survive. General Motors will eventually be Ford Buicks, Ford Cadillacs,
etc.etc. Ford is already and happy to compete with G M .
A EXCERCISE IN FUTILITY by Our Government.
Well i think now is not the time to blame anyone. This economy did not get like this overnite. GOD has nothing to do with it, we have to rise as one and get the country out of the hole.
Martin:
When do you suppose that Limbough, Hennity, Beck and the rest will finally realize that Obama cares nothing about the USA and is running for the presidency of the world, and have the fortitude to say it?
Dear Martin,
You and your co-horts have done a fine job making the public at large aware of the seriousness of the situation. In ones private life no one can live beyond their means —for any extended period. I have been aware of this from my parents for along time.AMERICA will survive if the will is there, which I think is there. Good luck ,and keep up the good work.
Dear Martin W., Let us pray, and let us use the Spirit of intelligence to make a difference by doing. 1st by identifying the repairable problems: High Credit demands from Banks and Retail Companies. (Standardized interest and payments must not be forgiven, but paid back with reasonable and honorable agreements.) Think “American”.
2nd, the five day work week: Computers have made work simplification tools. Look at the European vacation. The US has not improved because of greed.
3rd, money: let work and the Social Security Trust fund be the new Dollar Standard by allowing/creating a Credit system to compete with lending institutions: THE Answer!!!
I still like dividend paying stocks. My biggest fear there, of course, is that many companies will be forced to cut their dividends to increase capital (as many already have). I try to do my research and choose cash-rich companies. I also like gold and silver, although only a small (3%) of our portfolio is in those metals— both a little physical metal and some mining companies. Would you recommend a lot more? I recently bought into a TIPS mutual fund just in case inflation begins to kick in, but again only a small percentage of total portfolio. We own some Chinese and Indian individual stocks also that are doing well so far. Long term, I have no idea where the global economy will take us, but we just stay diversified and hope that we will make it through our retirement years which are just around the corner. Oh, and we are also fairly cash heavy in a couple of B banks: just wish we could earn a little more interest!! Best of all, we are debt free– no mortgage, car, or credit card debt, which I believe is absolutely essential for anyone considering retirement these days.
I feel that America will collapse very soon!
I read your emails because so they so accurately reflect my own beliefs. No, just like numerous businesses were past the point of no return, I believer the US government is well past the point of no return. I think the government is going to keep handing out money to try to stay in power until it absolutely collapses. I don’t see a single ray of intelligence or financial management skills in the US government. If people ran their personal finances like the US government runs the country’s finances, 100% of them would be totally insolvent.
Folks it’s all part of the plan, bankrupcy of the US of A. The printing facility in Denver , co. is printing Amero’ as fast as it can go 24/7/365. The money will change to Amero– maybe, just maybe one will receive 50% of the value of the present greenback. All part of the plan for One World government, One World Tax base and reduced population by a conservative 45%. When the money is moved by shipping containers how much more does one need. Just suppose the that a dollar bill is .010 thick, 6.125″ long x 2.625″ wide. stack then 48″ high on te stand shipping pallet 42″ x 48″ . The distance is un-imaginable in length as to our present US debt much less 3.8 billion a day. folks we as a Nation won’t survive. Things are not getting better and if our President has his way, he’s got a big truck headed down hill at high speed, and the “T” at the bottom and no hope of making a turn, strainght into the ditch…. Folks understand it’s not ‘Our President’ the rules, those above are the ones that don’t care about the little man. Those of us the earn the normal yearly wage of$35k to $500k aren’t even on the playing board. Even those earning millions a year aren’t on the board. Forget hanging on, not a happening. Enjoy while you can……..
Coneger
I have never been more concerned over the future of the U.S. I have gone through several “crises” including Howard Ruff’s societal breakdown. I believe that we are facing a fundamental challenge to our political and economic systems. I don’t pretend to know who is at the root cause of these challenges, but they are obviously powerful and focussed on their goals. If you look at other countries that have experienced this type of challenge, there would appear to be little that the individual can do to protect himself from such systemic breakdown, although I believe that what you have done, personally, is probably the best survival plan.
I certainly do not have an extensive grasp of economics, however, I was always under the impression that “free market capitalism” provided extensive opportunity AND extensive risk. Since it seems that there is very little possibility of a company truly “failing” (because in most instances the government,ie, taxpayers) are picking up the pieces and the concommitant bills, where is the motivation for directors, CEO’s etc, to run their business prudently, not take on extensive debt and run a profit-bearing enterprise?
Why is our government in the business of rescuing failing banks & businesses at the expense of the taxpayer, who has essentially had no voice in these decisions?
This is not a game for the weak of heart…..I am going to buy my ETF positions again at todays position and ride this bear market delirium back down. This surge is a fake just like our gov…..gravity works but it takes time…..CHINESE STUDENTS LAUGHED IN THE FACE OF GEITHNER ABOUT THE SAFETY OF CHINESE INVESTMENT IN US TREASURIES SAYS IT ALL….WE ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. Bill
If America goes, there will not be a sufficiently stable currency to allow for much international trade. Practically speaking, there is still a truly massive value in what American produces each day. The human capital factor per capita far exceeds the great depression. Dire and painful adjustments – no doubt. A worthless dollar and destruction of America’s economy – very unlikely. Should we liquidate everything and buy gold or silver? By itself, that won’t produce much. Seems like a good time to really prepare for a radically different and far more efficient economy. That requires a fair degree of downtime and retooling no matter what trade or profession one is in. Now is a good time to do that and to anticipate the future in whatever industry one finds themself. The need for goods and services cannot diminish forever. Thanks for your thoughts.
The worst part about this whole auto sector mess dates back to before the whole dog and pony show in Washington. Remember those auto execs saying that all they needed was a few billion dollars to get their companies over the hump? Well, they got those billions. And now that money is gone. And chapter 11 was still the outcome… How come the rest of the coutry could see this coming ? By the way, does anyone own a GM that isnt a truck of some sort ? Probably not.
When this country is ridiculed by Pravda for falling headlong into Marxist Socialism, you’ve got to know we’re in some serious trouble. Unfortunately, under the current management, it looks to me like the United States has two wheels over the brink of the cliff, and the brakes are gone…
When the government establishes a practice of voiding valid contracts, all the while telling us how important it is to follow the rule of law and giving sweetheart deals to its political supporters, we’re cooked. It’s plain to see that unless we stop thinking for ourselves and join the rest of the sheeple, we’ll be slaughtered next!
I have no idea what the future holds for America. We have forsaken our moral paths for immorality calling it open mindedness and our work ethic for socialism and entitlements. I thank you Dr. Weiss, for the insites you are providing and I am taking your advise as far as I can in protecting my assets.
I heard the Dollar is going to be obsolete between Aug-September of this year.
Its scarey to think of what can happen. I do not understand the printing of phantom money and then accusing N. Korea of counterfeiting our $100 bills.
Obama is guilty of counterfeiting trillions of dollars – With this type of spending spree – I guess there trying to break in that Amero! Scarey whats going on – everything is happening so fast!
Money is the root of all evil
We are not going to survive this, at least not as the same country we went into it as. A nation cannot continue to spend beyond its means and then convince itself that the cure to the problems that were caused by too much spending is more spending. That our leaders will not admit this tells me one of two things:
1. They are not telling us the truth – or-
2. They are incompetent
Either way, we cannot survive with such “leadership.”
A good many of us are hard working, God fearing men and women. We wake up every day and try to do what’s right, while the people we send to Washington fleece us. It’s time to secede from this corrupt union, one state at a time. It is our only hope of continuing the goal of the Founders. We are not abandoning America by advocating such measures. We are preserving it. It is Washington that has abandoned us, and if we are foolish enough to continue to support this madness and pay taxes to this corrupt empire, we deserve what we get.
I encourage each and every reader to do the following immediately:
1. Buy hard gold and silver, at least enough to get you through a meltdown.
2. Do not send your sons and daughters to die for this corrupt regime. The military was once a noble calling, but there is nothing noble about it now.
3. Find ways to limit the taxes you pay. Buy less, work less. Go Galt.
Do it today. Take America back.
I am surprise that your blog posted Ed Anderson’s comments. We are all concerned about the economy, but do we really need to read these moronic and bigoted comments by Mr. Anderson?
Martin, let’s all stay calm, and stay secure in mostly short-term treasury bills and some FDIC insured CDs. When long-term rates rise, you will give us the signal to get into intermediate and long-term treasury notes and bonds. After the eventual pullback in equities occurs, you will let us know when to get some good corporate bonds and dividend yielding stocks.
My impression is that “shorting” in this volatile market is very tough. Maybe best to sit in short-term treasuries, CDs, and some gold.
Martin, thanks for all your sound advice; and let’s keep the “haters” and “conspiracy freaks” off your website—please!
I think we lost America when we start encouraging everyone to go into debt with credit cards, no payment for a year credit and raising our children to expect instant gratification without earning it? Obama is now in charge of completing the job and doing a hell of a job of it, he considers himself king of the world and no one in Washington is ready to step in front of the run away train.
GM’s downfall is harbinger of American businesses falling like dominos due to the Obama administration’s actions.
Personally, I believe Pres. Obama will use the fallout to move toward a definite socialistic style of goverment and the nationalization of any business he thinks will pull his fat out of the fire.
“Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to PROTECT LIBERTY when the GOVERNMENT’S PURPOSES ARE BENEFICENT! Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by EVIL MINDED RULERS. The GREATEST DANGERS TO LIBERTY LURK IN INSEDIOUS ENCROACHMENT BY MEN OF ZEAL, WELL MEANING BUT WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING!” Louis Brandeis, Associate Supreme Court Justice 1916 – 1939
The Obama administration clearly does not understand or respect the free markets and personal freedoms and liberty (including the freedom to fail) which have made this country the most prosperous in history. Protecting one class over another is unconstitutional. The UAW’s win over bondholders is unconstitutional and will come back to haunt this administration and all legitimate bond holders. Why are we protecting the UAW and punnishing bondholders who are retirees and ordinary investors? This is disgraceful, unethical and very dangerous.
What chance do you feel , that american currency , goes the way of the mexican peso , and makes all middle class people poor ?
Dr. Weiss,
GM, the company “too big to fail”, is in court filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection NOW!!!
When will these United States of America, the country “too big to fail”, be in court filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection???
A friend tried to convince me today: “They (the government of the US of A) don’t have to do that. They can print all the necessary money they need”. Soon after that remark an Earth-World-America shaking Revelation hit me:
Hire all those millions of unemployed Americans, make them build 7/24 money printing presses as fast as they can! Occupy all those emptied buildings of GM and Chrysler for those machines and have them printing $$$ as fast as those machines will run without going up in smoke!!!
There is just ONE small hurdle to overcome/remove before all THAT money is going to do some good for OUR Government/Country: How can we get rid off all those “qualified/experienced ceo’s/presidents/money managers” who knew how to fill their pockets, to fleece ours, to precipitate their companies/countries into hundreds/trillions of Dollars of debt, without throwing them into jail (and the key away)???
And I am not so sure if that would even work, since they got enough money to buy/convince their jailers to let them out!!!
Any idea how to do that, without us getting thrown into jail and rot away there since we ain’t gotten their dough???
Hans in New Mexico
Yes, America will survive. Rising interest rates will curtail purchases of hard assets, such as homes. Yet unsustainable government programs, such as social security and medicare, should be phased out over a the next 20+ years.
Well chosen Home Health Care Services may offer good profits in the future; foreign stocks in countries like Brazil may also offer good opportunities. I recently met two Australian couples; while they said their country was in recession, their banks were in good shape. Another opportunity?
I’ve read your recent book, but find it hard to invest in Treasury Bills, especially with the falling dollar. I need safe investments that will offer solid growth and dividends. I wish you would address retiree needs also (many lost thousands in their retirement accounts and home equity). Many of us no longer trust our government.
It is an interesting question. Maybe we ought to look at history.
Once upon a time China ruled the World;
Then the Monguls with an Empire from the China Sea almost to the Mediterranean;
Then the Turks may be;
Then Italy (how could a country as small as Italy rule the World?)
Then Spain – remember Columbus? (how could a country as small as Spain rule the World?)
Then France – remember Louisianna? (how could a country as small as France rule the World?)
Then Britain – remember the Empire on which the sun nevers sets? (how could a country as small as Britain rule the World?)
Then the USA.
and now ………………. Japan …… China?
Could it be a rotation? Stranger things have happened,
I have read and agree with some of the comments. We are sadly in a worse financial crisis than the Great Depression, possibly. No company is to big to fail, the government should have let them all go under. I feel for the people who would and some still are losing their jobs, but now the whole contry may go under. Natrue abhors a vacuum and someone would have come along to fill the void. I believe the initial stimulus was more to save the powers that be: the rich who would have suffered way more than the average American if these institutions would have been allowed to go under. It may have shaken the world economy, instead of just destroying the USA in the not to distant future, but so be it. I am mostly conservative in my beliefs and don’t believe in the redistribution of wealth, but I am sorely disappointed with all of Washington. I’m sure we have a few good ones in office, but all indications are showing that the barrel is full of mostly rotten apples, not just a few. Over 60% of Americans were against the stimulus package and they passed it anyway. It seems as the people or majority no longer have a voice. The word politician has become another word in the vocabulary of profanity. They tell you what you want to hear to get elected and then do as they please or the big financial interest dictate. In this day and of information almost immeadiately available we finally get a look at what is going in Washington DC, almost in real time. Maybe the rest of America will finally wake up and hold their representatives accountable. I have been joking with a few friends at work about the collapse of society and whether they would be able to survive or not, being they were raised as city bred folk, so to speak. I was country and grew up hunting, fishing and trapping and can survive off the land and it’s bounty. Can most of America? I doubt it.
I am a merchant marine (professional sailor) by trade and have been to some of the most impoverished places on the planet. We may have been in a dire situation letting these companies go under, but it would have been survivable. The rest of the world may have suffered also, there is suffering happening every day unrelieved. If the debtors come to collect will we roll over and allow them to take parts of this country from us. Obama already sent Hillary to China and agreed to allow them to take land in lieu of what we borrowed if we fail to pay. Some may, possibly even a majority. Then again maybe not, :). I did not sign this loan agreement or any other that our government is holding us all accountable for, therefor I do not feel obligated to honor them. I proudly served our country before and during the 1st Gul War and would do so again. It may be in view of what I think is the right way and not coincide with Washington. If things don’t turn around soon we may have a revolution on our hands and they are never pretty or civil.
Any hope of salvation lies in massive cuts in spending on anything that is not absolutely necessary. Foreign aid, sorry 3rd world but we have to take care of our own house first before we can help you with yours. Research, if it’s not economically viable then let private funding drive it. Infrastructure, yeah some of it needs to be put on hold until things are settled and moving in a positive direction.
As soon as Mr. Obama and his cronies get out of the picture, American ingenuity will take over and begin to sort out this mess, created by the aforementioned.
What is your feeling about General Electric, is it in danger of a down-melt?
I was once told, “If you have to ask…..You already know the answer.”
So, with that in mind, to the Question (Is the US Next?) the answer is YES.
If I were to write checks without money in the bank, I’d go to jail.
These bastards are killing us, with only their hunger for power to drive them.
When did it become us and them……This is one country, we are on the same side right?!?!
Or maybe, People without morals….
some kind of guide lines of what is “Right” …………Can Justify anything.
I am doing several things to protect capital:
Weaning out stocks not paying healthy dividends
Maintaining substantial cash balance in stock accounts and IRAs
Put $5K in SDS contrarian fund
Looking for more high dividend stocks and will buy gold stock on a substantial drop in price of GLD.
I am 65 year old retiree.
Did anybody catch Mary O’Grady’s interview with Richard Fisher, President of the Dallas FED in the Wall Street Journal last week? If not please see the below link. That interview together with Dr. Weiss’ et al. analysis of the current US fiscal situation are the most accurate and sobering of all. According to Mr. Fisher’s numbers the unfunded liability of the US “gubment” is $99 TRILLION. That is what the Dallas FED has calculated, not some right-wing-out-of-work-banker-conspiracy-theorist (me) cooking up propaganda. Assuming 300 million US citizens, our equal share of this unfunded liability is $330,000 each. Will the US survive? Doubtful in its’ present form.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124303024230548323.html
Just like the Soviet Union imploded ,now it is Capitilism turn….as political and economic governments realize , they really dont have the answers to how to run a country……As former president Gorbachav has said recently somewhere in the middle of these two economies is the answer……..it is a sure bet that the give away policys that Washington has had for a long time is draining our Social Security System and the whole country………we really need to go back to understand what a government is for and get back to the Will of the People……..which our government has not had for a long time…………….
Hi,
America has built a house of debt cards that has finally fallen. I go to America on business once or twice a year, and all I saw was the growth of America financed on debt, at the personal level, at the city level, at the state level, and the country finances of wars, etc. Ever where I went and looked, America was spending money hand over fist! It simply could not continue! If I ran my business like that, I wouldnt be in business, yet the very people that might loan (or not loan) me money didnt see it coming.
All those mortgage brokers of sub-prime mortgage SHOULD GO TO JAIL! Or all the people they put out onto the streets should be allowed to go live at the mortgage brokers house.
Deriatives, not sure I understand them. My best explanation I heard, was I borrow money from somebody to ‘gamble’ on anything and everything, and If I lose, that is somebody’s else problem. Deriatives should be made illegal by the government and all ‘financial experts’ that used them should be FIRED, on the street, or In Jail. If I gambled the equity in my house in Las Vegas and lost, Las Vegas would come and take the house! Same should happen to all those companies as a warning to future gamblers!
Did you hear the internet joke on how to solve the financial crisis in America? 40 Million people over age 50 get $1 Million each as severance pay, they must quit their job and create 40 million jobs, unemployment solved! Each of them must buy a new house, housing market solved! Each of them must buy a new car, auto industry solved. Mathimatically is would cost $40 Trillion! However, America saved the big shots and bankrupted everybody with $52 Trillion of debt? America spends $2 in debt for every $1 it creates?
As for GM, Chrysler, Ford, they have ignored the world producing energy efficient vechicles, If they dont compete with Toyota, Honda Hybrids, German efficient Diesels, they Close up now and cut our losses. Let GM and Chrysler Fold! Send the message loud and clear to Ford, compete or Die!
As for the world, the world will soon abandon America $ and re-establish other currencies based on trade and commodities, or other REAL assets, not Toxic assets. Definitely Gold will continue to be a hot commodity, Oil and Gas will boom (and Peak Oil is happening), and Water resources will become hot! The oil and gas boom will eventually bring the entire market down.
As a Canadian, I am now looking to buy 25% on the $ CHEAP real estate in America and rent it back to Americans, wait for the housing market to eventually level out or increase and take the money and run.
Just my opinion!
My immediate concern is General Electric.
Hi Martin,
Do you still feel that stocks are headed for another big plunge?
Thanks
We will survive but it will be a 10 year depression. So let us tighten our belts and learn to conserve. We have had it good for years. Now we learn to live like other people. Its a good experience. Good growth is part of the reason for being in the earth??? Of course I am not too happy about this but what can we do, we elected the dummies that did it to us . If we elected the other team they would do the same thing. Its Karma????
Joe
I recently signed up and have been following your newsletters. I’ve always had a positive outlook, with the market down…it’s on sale, if you have the x-tra money now’s the time to invest. Is this the wrong mentality? We still put money away for saving.
Yes I agree these are dark times. However with all the news that is fairly bad, the Dow still went positive yesterday and holding its own today. Apparently the majority of stockholders have a positive attitude about our economy or they wouldn’t be investing in more stocks at this time driving the market up. I have held onto a reverse market ETF (DXD) thinking that surely the market will start tanking again however dumped it today. Hated to take the loss but getting tired of the price going down. I find it almost impossible to out-think this market! Do we have intelligent investors or they all just a bunch of dummies????
My Comments Only/Lee
Good Day,
The staggering debt is alarming to me, I have not been in the stock market for three years. I know I have missed some growth opportunities, however being 70 years of age I have stayed in cash for a measly 2 percent return; however, i have sustained no losses. My retirement funds can only be moved one time a month, this is the primary reason I have stayed in cash as a lot of damage could ensue in a month long time frame. What do you suggest I do or have I erred on the side of safety?
Ralph
Our nation has changed and is still changing–for the worse in my opinion. We have no vision of where we were, where we are or where we are going. There appears to be much that parallels the Fall of the Roman Empire.
i see nothing but a disaster looming when the kid clowns in washington dabble in anything. commodities, gold and shorts are the only thing happening in the mkt. as long as the big o is in charge.
I know one thing for certain, the money that my wife and I safed to help support us in ou old age (85) isn’t helping much now. Between no interest and inflation, if we were not debt free, we would be on the streets.
2 comments—-
1) I have (had) 100,000.00 in in the weiss bear strategy. It is not doing
any better than my fidelity or franklin templeton junk. He is hung up on in and out of rydex.
2) I am loosing my shirt holding all of the inverse etfs you recommended–commercial property,etc
My bni. fcx, ge, gold and silver are making me money!
Dear Martin,
I read what you espouse and it made enough sense to me so that I invested in the Contrarian Portfolio. However, I read equally convincing and prominent economists who disagree with you. I have read equally compelling scenarios for both deflation and hyperinflation. There is no consensus; only what appears to be rational explanations from intellectually impressive individuals coming to 180 degree different conclusions with ample facts to support their opinions.
I have been a buy and hold investor for quite a while and still am to a certain extent. I am retired (5 years now) and live on my interest, dividends and distributions only (along with SS). I have not had to touch my principal thus far for living expenses, but have seen it diminish nonetheless because of all that has transpired over the last two years. I pulled out of the stock market in March of 2007 EXCEPT for my Canadian Royalty Trusts, MLPs’, and individual municipal bonds (all triple AAA as well as being able to stand alone without any rating). I understood that the MLPs’ and CRTs’ stock price would take a hit in a down market, but would probably continue to pay their dividends and distributions albeit @ somewhat lower dollar amounts. I had built in a 75% cushion (much of which has dissapated). The hit to the stock prices has been worse than I anticipated. I also own gold, gold miners, and silver stocks and etfs’ worth 2.5% of my liquid assets. I am trying to think long term and feel that these assets will be of value in an inflationary or hyper-inflation enviornment. We own our real estate free and clear and think (perhaps in error) that it will retain and increase in value in a hyper-inflation scenario.
I have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone several months or years from now. I bought into the million dollar portfolio because what you say seems absolutely logical to me and I want to hedge my bets by diversifying to mute large movements in either direction. Despite all of this I remain very confused about the future. Things change with lightening speed and so many external forces are @ play (that I do not even realize are there) as engines of dramatic change. I still do not know whether to plan for inflation or deflation or both, and despite doing extensive reading remain conflicted and unsure about my family and my country’s future economic stability. With millions of people out of work (and more coming) along with decreasing wages, how can prices for discetionary purchases possibly go up? On the other hand, with the monumental debt our country has piled up and continues to pile up; how can we avoid a drastic devaluation of the US$ with de facto massive inflation resulting?
I am sorry for such a long drawn out diatribe, but I guess my frustration and lack of being able to get a handle on all this is showing through. Perhaps you could respond to the deflation/inflation issue on your blog or next Contrarian confernce (or both). Thank you for your patience in reading this
My wife and I are depression kids who made it by working hard in academic life here and abroad, and playing by the rules.
We are fighting a dual battle – preservation of capital with modest gain to pass on to a large family – by using the Martin-and-Claus program – and selling our older house from which we moved to newer one.
We have a “double whammy” wish – that the bear market rally will hold long enough to see hopeful buyers for our house, and that Martin and Claus are right – soon!
Thanks, but we could certainly use a hopeful sign.
Robert L. Poorman, Ed.D.
WILL AMERICA SURVIVE?
The John Birchers have been warning America of this since 1958 ! Read The Gulag Archipelago book – America is at the same crossroads as Russia was in 1905 onward.
With the mass media “in their pockets” , I do not see how the American citizens will hear/realize the truth in time to turn this thing around.
STOCKS?
Stock up on at least a year of survival items & foods for your family.
What is amazing to me is why the market keeps going up. The report of leading economic indicators is released. The talking heads say “It didn’t drop as far or as fast as projected” Then the market goes up. GM declares bankruptcy another 100,000 unemployed and the dow goes up appox. 220 points on June 1. I have been trying to get a refi and I noticed that the mortgage interest rates are up 1% from last week. What possible logic can people be thinking when they buy, buy, buy.
Dear Dr. Weiss:
I think America, under the Obama administration, is on the same road the Roman Empire was on 2000 years ago. Debasement of the currency, profligate spending,
increased government control of our formerly-capitalist companies and banks.
Meanwhile, I am investing in precious metals and foreign stocks.
\
Regards,
Bart Hartzell
Kirkland, WA.
Dear Mr. Weiss,
I have only recently become familiar with you and have found your information
very important.
Cash and Gold seem to me to be wise looking forward.
Mr. Obama, Mr. Geithner, and Mr. Bernanke what experience do they bring to the table.
When was the last time they paid out of the money from there own company the salary of an employee?
Mr. Weiss all you need to do is look at the Debt vs. the Assets and that tells you the truth. What does our balance sheet look like?
I learned long ago to not send good money after bad. Apparently, the US Government doesn’t know about this advice. It has propped up many a bank that is scheduled to fail anyway (think Citigroup for one), and now is pouring billions into the rat-hole called General Motors. GM used to be “King of the road”, but it is now “road-kill”. If the Federales continue their reckless money-throwing ways, the United Staes will implode, and everyone, rich, poor, young, old, wise, stupid, quick or slow, will become victims. Life is short here on earth, and only those who precede in death us who remain will escape the awful consequences.
Dear Martin,
You and your colleagues are doing a great job and the real financial situation in the usa is much clearer because of this. However, I live in the UK and cannot get similar information (to what you provide) for my country to help me make good investment decisions. Can you please help by:- a) either providing your views on what a UK investor should be doing or b) providing another appropriate source of information for people like me.
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Irvin
I think commodities will go up rapidly. food,gold,silver,metals ect. I also think that
housing will have to go up with the rise in commodities. select stocks should rise and
it appears asian stocks especially India & China should rise.
2009 to 2012; The same time period as 1929 to 1932, and the one which followed the “roaring 20s”. Not surprising at all; just 80 years later. Even the last digits match. Could be the dooms-dayers be right. After all, the Mayan callendar ends in 2012. Personally, I think the Mayans just couldn’t find a larger object to put one on, and still be able to take it from one place to another if they had to. In case nobody has noticed, we are not in a recession. I saw it as a depression from the beginning – it’s just that the wave of repercussion is larger than all of those little recessions since 1932. The guys who were running the Fed back then would never have thought that something created as “fail-safe” as the FDIC could actually fail: but then they also would never have let this country have all the debt it has as a result of things like “sub-prime”, creative financing, loans made based on creditworthiness that has been blown out of proportion and much of the time just plain falsified. We’ll get through this; it is just going to take longer than it has for the recessions of the past 80 years to run its course. Look out though, it has a big engine and is going to destroy a lot in its path.
The failure of GM is the result of a lack of competent leadership within the company. Like much of the US within the last 30 years, GM was unable to confront, and deal with, reality. There are many individuals, institutions, and corporations that share this problem in the US. In GM’s case, management did not take the Japanese threat seriously, not just once, but over a two-decade period. By the time they began to make improvements, it was too late. Moreover, GM did never respond to changing customer preferences within the US. At this point in time, there have ben 2 generations of car buyers whose parents have owned Japanese cars rather than american cars. GM ignored this fact and just kept on making amerian cars for an ever shrinking customer base. The only way for GM to survive is to jettison all brand names except for Cadilliac, and start all over with 2-3 new brands of sleek, european styled cars with reliability equivalent to Japanese brands. No more Chevies, Olds, Pontiacs, or buicks. The chevy symbol alone is sufficient many people to dismiss the car and whatever improvments may have been recetly added to the car. Start again with new brand names, new symbols, sleek styling, and good quality materials with good overall product value. Americans will then start to buy GM again when GM improves their product, rather than relying on the now untrue premist that customers will buy GM because they do not have other options or because their parents bought GM. GM was only strong when it had no competitors. Those days are gone forever.
Nothing is stopping the Fed from expanding its balance sheet and printing unlimited amounts of money, which will destroy the dollar. This is how we get to the Weimar hyper-inflationary depression that Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Jim Sinclair, Jim Puplava, John Williams, Peter Schiff, Glenn Beck, Ron Paul, Stephen Moore, Gerald Celente, et al. (all Austrian School thinkers) have been predicting for several years – at least. Until the Fed is audited and the Federal Reserve Act is repealed so we can have sound, free market money, the central planners, bureaucrats, and economists at the Fed/Treasury/Goldman Sachs that believe in the insanity of “inflation-targeting” will give us the worst of all worlds – a collapsed currency, a collapsed economy, a collapsed bond market, a collapse real estate market, and a collapsed stock market (in real terms) making our transition to a banana republic complete. We will then have to issue debt denominated in foreign currencies. That’s when Celente’s riots start. I am a Safe Money Report subscriber, as well, and highly recommend the material.
A tidal wave of hyperinflation is heading our way and the administration and the majority leaders in congress have their hand on the throddle at full speed ahead. Dam the debt full speed ahead. Who is at fault? A good majority of the American citizens. Why are they responsible but not totally their fault. A great majority of them never were taught in school or forgot why our founding farthers set up a republic. Many do not understand the constitution,decleration of indipendance and (We the people). In order to maintain our freedom and prosperity we must be active in what is going on in government on the local, state and national level and pick the best people to represent us.However our congress consists of many layers who write policy that the average citizen can not understand. We have let the elite control our lives because there are few average citizens in these elected offices. The longer they stay the more power they have over our lives and little chance for new blood to enter and represent the people. We can only have serious change if more citizens take an active roll in local,state,and national levels of government. Know who is running and what their views are gather the facts and vote. Our country is a republic but unless we put the breaks on Washington we could be a socialist country. We own GM, the banks, financial institutions, Chrysler, AIG,the debt is out of control and the savings of millions of citizens will be worthless if htperinflation hits and the dollar is no longer the worlds reserve currency. Millions of baby boomers will loose their retirement they worked hard for and planned on to pay off the debt by debasing the dollar. A government run health care system could cost some their lives. Just last week the news stated that the government sent out thousands of stimulus check to dead people. Do we feel confident they will take care of our health needs? My equation for prosperity is ( understanding the founding farthers by understanding the constitution,the decleration of indipendence + know the issues and vote + be self reliant + be debt free + understand investments + remember WE THE PEOPLE WHO VOTE CAN STOP THE WASHINGTON MADNESS of choking debt that is around our necks and choking us. I feel that investments in strong currencies gold,silver,natural resources such as copper,lumber, will help one survive hyperinflation. I also would stay away from any bonds because of the dollar situation and all the policy changes in Washington. I would stay in limited dividend stocks of food companies for hard times ahead with protective stops. Martin question. Do you think silver will out preform gold over the next two years? Also why is the silver ratio over the past eight months been 71-72-73- to one ratio with gold? Is not the normal ratio usually about 45-to one ratio to gold? Is it being controled by outside forces? Thanks for all your help over the years and I like the million dollar portifilo so far.
This country is probably ‘too big to fail’! Ha! We are having socialism/facism stuffed down our throats, whether we want it or not. I almost think we are too far gone to recover – unless, ALL government spending stops immediately. The only exception would be to run the government (with no pork) and to pay for the military. Everything else gets cut and the monies used to pay off whatever our debt is now. Most folks I know are disgusted with Washington.
I agree with the above blogger. I think we are all being duped. I think the real plan is to completely change the rules of governance we’ve had since we became our own democratic nation. I think the real goals of the progressives in power are to turn our nation, democracy, founding priciples, EVERYTHING upside down on it’s ears. We have been decieved and it may be too late to do anything about it. By the way, it was great to see your appearance on Glenn Beck on FNC Monday. Hope to see more of you there with more time to contribute. The stuff you’ve been heralding conincides directly with all of Glenn’s warnings. I am a member of your contrarian portfolio and am doing a shadow with you and Claus. I am concerned though that you cannot make the right recommendations with this government pulling the strings and constantly changing the rules. It feels like investing has become one big crap shoot with a bunch of crooks running the casino and tampering with the odds of every bet.
I have bought sizeable positions in precious metals mining stocks and ETN’s(AGQ, SLV, GDZ, IAG, LIHR, AU, GOLD, SSRI); ETF’s denominated in Canadian and Australian dollars; a basic commodity ETF(UYM); Market Vectors Coal(kol); Market Vectors Steel(SLX); and sizeable positions in Lukoil, Petrobras, Suncor Energy, Schlumberger, and Transocean, and all are up sharply since I got in in late February/early March.
THis is all an orchestrated economic crisis with only one goal to have a New World Order. Gary is right. The goverment had already started working towards a North American Union (USA, Canada and Mexico) Just like the European Union where the currency will be Amero. This is all a bunch of bankers conspiracy to take over the World economy. Blame the Rockefellars and other Illuminati.
Thank you for your article. Yes, I am worried about America’s future. I worry about my children and grandchildren’s future DEBT obligation that they will have to pay. I think I worry more because there doesn’t seem to be any positive information. I am in a bad position as well. I am a college graduate with a Masters Degree in Business; however, the condo market flopped and the company that I had employed me for the last 6 years had 9 (NINE) layoffs! I had little credit card debt and some savings (6 months worth); however, I have ran out! I have cashed out of my 401k and took a 30% tax hit…ouch! and the unemployment has ran out. All of the top headhunters have said they have no leads yet. What should I do? Go back to college AGAIN? That is what worries me. I felt as though I made the right decisions and yet….??
Martin, You are THE most prescient analyst and I follow your work closely.
My opinion, for what it is worth, is that we have probably avoided a crushing depression by the magic of money creation and that the effects of this will come back to haunt us in a few years,when our currencies will erode in value. The net result will be massive inflation followed by a CRASH. You can only hold up a house of cards for so long!
I am positioned long Silver and Gold, long Oil and some. I do not have the courage to go short but if I did, it would be on most consumer goods and Real Estate, especially commercial ! With best regards, Hamish Kerr
I am an investor in the Contrarian portfolio (if I remain we should at least get 2010 subscription free) and also have been following the “safe money” reports??
Secondly I sold off my equity investments “on the opportunity of any rally” as you guys have recommended??
Thirdly I am an investor that have like other investors asked the question regarding hedging the $ as we are not US investors??
I don’t want to, but honestly I am losing faith in most of the Money and Markets predictions except that the DOW can run up to 10000 before it does a normal correction.
AMERICA is suffering from its power structure, run by the rich boys for too long and
is now going through the “end of empire”. It is NOT a democracy any more than the UK and allows no say for 90% of its citizens. Candidates are voted into the system
only to do as they are told by one or two masters at the top, in other words, short
term dictatorships. Evolution eventually will change this, it could happen now but
those in control will resist to the bitter end. History. In the short term a lot
of outsiders will own a lot of America as it will become one of the worlds cheaper places,
with its technology and skilled workers it will become a good investment.
I am a 57 year old professional, college-degreed woman; conservative and quite middle class. My husband and I put our kids through college without loans and paid our house off 20 years ago. We are debt free. I started IRA’s when I was 28 and have two 401K’s with a past employer (20 years) and my current employer (10 years). Three years ago I took my 401K out (previous employer) and put it in a CD and I feel pretty good that I did the right thing. I still contribute 8% into my current 401K with 8% matching dollar for dollar. My husband has contributed to his SEP since 1991. We are not the type of people to buy gold but we would definitely barter if the opportunity arose. We live on 16 acres and planted our first vegetable garden this year. I believe our country will default. When this happens you will see the many poor and unprepared middle class folks riot in the streets. I believe we are headed for anarchy in the near future. This will be due to the greed, dishonestly, and blatant disregard for the values and beliefs that made this a great country and that allowed it to govern itself for more than 200 years. I personally have never felt such utter distain for our government officials. Senators, Representatives, the current administration, our judicial system and other powers that control us have no regard for it’s citizens. My husband and I are survivors and will take care of our children and their children but most people are not like this as they have always depended upon someone else to get them by. It is a sad time but it will surely get much worse.
I think that Gold and Silver and some cash might be the way in these times.
I have no doubt about a negative impact of the bassive bail-out (with money created as an accounting entry in my opinion) on the value of the US dollar. It may be unamerican, but I think it is financially sound to invest a lot in currencies and metals (not the russian rubel and iron of course).
Just hang on. I believe stocks will rebound. GM will come out of chapter 11 and be a profitable Co. again. This great country can stand anything for 4 years. Once again we have a president that was elected altho no one voted for him. We will have a chance to change that before you know it.
To understand market sentiment and trends you must know what the populous believes. As quantum theory suggests we can become what we believe. There are a growing number of christians world wide that believe we are seeing signs from revelations. We then have Amadinajad on the other side who believes he is here to usher in the muslim mesia. What comes first the chicken or the egg? Will mankind recreate world war three according to the scriptures they follow … How will these fears affect the investing decisions of the growing christian belivers? When the market retraces and breaks its lows sending the dollar up, gold and commodities will take a last beating. We still have major DEFLATIONARY forces ahead. I will be loading the boat on gold but not until it has a big pullback. As the market continues to rally as it did in 1933 I will be watching my entry point for the SRS [ will soon fall into the teens] and other short ETFs. At the right time as our market tops out I will also be shorting the Japanese markets. My grandfather, father and uncle followed Martins father.. the apple lucky for us all fell close to the tree.
as always ,thank you for your thoughts.my family is in good shape so my concern is more for my country.our gov’t doesn’t see the connection between money supply and interest rates.for the first time in my life i see the possibility that we may loose our country.the fools that think this will not destroy us are wrong.jules
I do agree that we are in tough economic times indeed, but don’t you think that GM failed not because of the global downturn, but more a symptom of poor management? Ford has not failed, nor do I think it will. I know that this is in stark contrast to what you’ve said in your presentations/interviews. I’m seeing Chase signs popping up left and right on the front of WM banks. This is not a sign of a bank that is folding up. Not to say that they are not going to fold up in the future, but that future is looking further down the road than I would want to make investment decisions for today. Could it be that treasuries have plunged, sending yields higher because people’s appetite for equities risk is increasing. As a tax payer, I don’t want to own AIG, Citi, BofA, and least of all Chrysler or GM. I would never buy a GM car because they are junk let alone own stock in the company that produces such junk. They are failing because of mismanagement and an unwillingness to produce cars that consumers actually want. All this is bailout money was the largest heist in World History. Both Republicans(paulson/Goldmansachs/bush) and Democrats(Geithner/Goldmansachs/UAW/Obama) have conspired since the Clinton administration to strip America(you and me) of our hard earned money, all of which we have yet to earn. Power breeds corruption and absolute power IS absolute corruption.
It should be clear to at least a large portion if not the majority of people that accountability for this disaster -implosion can be ascertained if there is a full accounting and transparency by the ( private) federal reserve which makes the laws prints the money decides who gets it, sets interest rates , etc- and has not been audited!! What will it take for people to realize that thr truth will not be printed in mainstream controlled press and boraodasct on tv? Please support Ron Pauls bill HR1207 currently having over 180 co-sponsors in the house – The bill is calling for a full accounting of the federal reserve .We the people must act NOW .Make your elected officials aware of your voice. We havent been completely stripped of our power yet Precious metals, food and intellect will be the only tools we can invest in right now.
It seems to me that the government is growing at a time when ‘everybody else’ is shrinking. I think that there are private companies ‘acting as government affiliates’ that will secure some of the bailout monies. These companies will soar in their profit margins.
These would be the companies to follow for huge gains, or least ‘gov’t guaranteed’ gains.
What are your thoughts? I would like to know.
Martin, I lived thru the great depression. You (most of You) have no idea what we went thru. I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. You are absolutely right in your analysis. I would urge everyone to read your book on the subject.
When I was a kid I read the story of the Pied Piper. Today I fear that we have the Pied Piper running our country, and he may be leading us and our children into the River of No Return.
America will of course survive – unless an asteroid the size of Australia hits the continent right in the middle. Even the USA will likely survive for another hundred years. Yet, things will change in our country – that much is obvious. Things have always changed, sometimes a little, sometimes a lot.
Let’s take an inventory of the REAL assets of the USA: 1) A huge amount of land, much of it suitable to produce enough food for every citizen in this country. 2) Water, not everywhere enough, but overall enough to quench our thirst and grow our food. The ability to make it clean and safe to drink. 3) A government that can be changed through the will of the people. 4) A military and weapons strong enough to defend us against an invasion. 5) A good educational system. 6) Lots of existing buildings and roads that make it possible to distribute goods and services.
Those are the foundations on which we can rebuild what is broken.
The biggest danger is not the loss of money, but the loss of patience and the loss of ethics and civility. We have seen it in many other countries: When the going gets tough, people run to extreme political figures who promise them a quick end to their problems, and crime and violence grow.
The excess printing of money has to lead to inflation down the road. Hopefully not as bad as Brazil a few years back.
We are going to inflate our way out of debt. Our debt as a % of gnp is lower than after ww2 or civil war. We have already begun the process of inflating the economy so we will pay back the debt in inflated dollars. Unless there is a collapse (possible but unlikey) we will let inflation go until people scream from pain then tighten credit an choke the economy as Carter did in 1980. The real question is how high will inflation go and maybe how soon.
The current volume of “created” money , albeit fiat, is so extensive globally that surely it will continue to improve the economies of the U.S. and China as the citizens spend more by late his year or early next year. The citizens are afraid now and maybe saving a little more now, but there seems to be a zany overriding desire for more luxury, more of what “the Jones” have. Maybe the fiat money will propel an effect of recovery as now seems in play which is stinging me significantly with my gamble for “investment”/gambling in inverse financials, technology, and the S&P. It certainly takes a strong stomach to play the depression/inverse stocks game when realizing the movement upward with all the $ pumping is possibly having some effect.
I believe America will survive but not in its current socialistic form with everyone feeding at the public trough-that will collapse of its own weight as it has every time its been tried in the past. We will have to revert back to an era where you alone are responsible for how well you do-no more free lunches. As Lincoln put it-You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer and you cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn, nor can you help the poor by destroying the rich.
I believe commodities such as food, oil, and precious metals will all preserve wealth as the dollar finally goes the way of all fiat currencies before it. Currencies of countries with large natural resource components should also do very well.
Though I am not a christian (nor a believer in any religion), I do think there is an uncanny resemblance to what is going on in the world right now with the book of revelation as commented on by someone earlier. Most people are looking at this like it is a US problem, however it is a global problem because the real controllers are global – not national. There is no doubt in my mind that things don’t just happen – everything is planned… everything from wars to booms and busts in the economy. The latter being for the purpose of keeping the average individual in a box of slavery where we never have the time or resources to figure out what is really going on and what this life is all about. Most people struggle to get through from week to week and just watch mindless drivel on the TV for “relaxation”. Anyway I think mankind has been cheated big time out of what is ours… health, wealth, peace, love, freedom, justice and the opportunity to grow as spiritual beings without hindrance. I do believe we are at the end of this era and many people are waking up to what is wrong with the whole picture of life… there is going to be a showdown… I’m sure that what is right and good will eventually win out but it is going to be an awful rocky few years to get there and many will not survive unless they prepare in every possible way.
On that score, I wouldn’t like to be the ones on the wrong side of this when the dust settles… by that I mean those that have sucked all the wealth and power to themselves and the perpetrators of the enormous crimes against humanity that have, are and will occur…. that also includes those who serve them – just doing my job won’t cut it – there will be real justice in the new age.
For forty years we have understood and known that this was going to be an outcome. No matter how many people we warned few take notice and some still cast aspersions at this truth.
Where has all this been revealed , not Naustradamus but the Bible prophecies. This time of chaos and collapse has been long told for our peoples.
Look at the chaos in Government and Britain is in the same boat as America.
As I read this, my wife is paying our quarterly taxes, and I ask myself “Why”. She tells me so we do not got to jail. I agree, but wonder if soon that would not be a better place to be.
On another note, I have passed on your advice to family and friends, but is seems many are preprogrammed to follow the advice of their broker. Months ago I told a close friend of mine to just sell his GM stock, take the hit and reinvest his money in gold or ETF’s. Well today he is now down the whole $15,000. He sure would have been better off if only he would have payed attention.
I like to read your articles which have insights of independent thinking. My guess is the inflation will wipe out debt.
We will survive but it will not look like any thing we envsioned when we were growing up. It will look more like what our parents told us about when they were growing up and thats not a problem …..its our children who may have a hard time and become disillusioned. Hopefully, they too will come to realized what is important and what is just fluff!………………………………..MD
Well, you have warned us many times, and for the most part, you were absolutely right. As to whether our country can survive? Not if we keep going down this ridiculous path. The global warming hoax is enough to do us in if we allow it to. Our country has lousy management, just like GM had. The only thing that will save us from going down eventually is for people to wake up and elect some real leaders. Stop spending money on foolish things and allow private enterprise to work. Keep the government the hell out of business, it is not capable of doing anything but spend money we don’t have, and create money by printing it. God help us.
It looks like we elected the chicago gang of six. It looks like a planned conspiracy. There are 2 trillion dollars that are unacounted for. There was a similar event in China were the gang of six tride to overthrow the government were caugth tried and given live sentences.
What I do not understand is what the impact of printing money out of thin air is. How is it possible that the FED is buying debt with newly printed money ? Is that legal ? Or is there an other instrument which keeps the system in sync , balances this new money ?
Well it had to happen sooner or later, the piper has to get paid eventually and that time is almost here. It is nice to see that some people saw what was coming and took steps to safeguard their future, but for us working stiffs all we can do is just watch from the sidelines as the Tsunami comes rolling in- god help us !!
Martin,
While I agree with your assessment of the state of this Union and the rough times that lie ahead, as an investor I let the market tell me what it wants to do. Since the end of March, my portfolio has increased 15.4% (12.2% up since 12/31/08) primarily by shorting long term Treasuries, playing the re-inflation trade in commodities (oil and base metals), gold, select alternative energy plays, short term stock breakout trades and certain China trades. I have maintained generally a 30% cash position. If I had followed your instructions I believe my returns would have been negative. I am not optimistic about the future of the economy for several years to come. I am optimistic that an investor can make a decent return whether the market direction is up or down. I just keep some powder dry and watch my basket of eggs VERY closely. November 2010 won’t get here soon enough and I sincerely hope the American voter will realize what they did on Nov. 4, 2008 was One Big *** Mistake America!!!
Martin, from reading the first dozen replies to your query, I must have missed something: there were more questions than answers to your concerns.
I did surmise the majority of those mails were from people who have not had the experi- ence of living during a depression or even reading of one. The plastic society and genera- tions X & Y and those even younger, such as my great grand children are in for a life time of turmoil.
I will address this issue via an e-mail in the next day or so.
Cordially, Ted
The loss of GM is the loss of Unions and pension plans across America and the hope of workers around the world to have a better life. The American dream of a good wage and a retirement plan goes by the wayside as one of the last strong holds dies. The underlying demise of the union worker and the ability to raise the scale for worldwide workers has been lost. The money changers have won the battle and the level of America’s work force will now have to compete with the world work force. Unless we take drastic action to cure the ill’s of America, we are destined to become a second rate country with China producing goods and Europe producing technelogical advances for the world.
America has become complacent in this battle and it is just a matter of time before we as a nation discover that we are behind and cannot catch up.
These are competive times America, wake up.
Because of the great entitlements debt of USA which is like GM’s debt making Her noncompetitive in the world markets. I have three retirement incomes: S.S. , Military,and Carpenters at 72.
If the world leaders are thinking about devaluing their currencies would not make the ” bail-out money less valuable? So why do people think that an option for USofA.
Inflation seems more logical to me.
So keeping cash liquid which may devalue doesnt make sence. This cash was to buy real estate at lower prices during the up coming depression.
If money inflates, buy/invest in commodies for a hedge makes sence too. SO the BIG Guess is the timing between deflation and inflation.
It concerns me that you are asking me for my ideas, because you are the seasoned researchers of the financial web which has been spunned for the last century.
Personally I am relative well off in a rural community of 7,500 pop. with 45 low income rentals, no gov subsidies and no vacancies for 12 months. But I need to drop this load of work and play the markets. NO time now.
SO I AM A BIT CONFUSED WHERE TO PUT THE cd MONIES, KEEP SAVING OR BUY THINGS, IE. SOME GOLD , MUTUAL FUNDS, PLAY WITH etf, ???
Ed
P.S.: Appreciate your insights into the world of finance, and investments which I have not the time to use so far,(Crisis Oppos. ETF Trader).
I AM ALSO LOOSING FAITH IN YOUR COMITMENTS AND SINCERITY. I HAVE ALREADY SENT IN QUESTIONS THAT WERE NOT ANSWERED … AND YOU HAVE BEEN USING UP MOST OF THE “GUARANTED FULL REFUND” TIME WITHOUT MAKING ANY HEADWAY WITH the Contrarian portfolio WE PAID FOR. WHY ASK FOR INPUT IF YOU DON’T WISH TO RESPOND?
As tightly tied to the US economy as is Canada and despite both governments stimuli packages, early indications are that America industry will sink itself into a morass of unrecoverable debt, long before it’s northern neighbor succumbs to the same fate.
Canada makes do – it has learned ways to do subsist ‘without’. For a few years, Canada had to find other ways to sell and export beef after the hoof and mouth scare. For decades after American crude oil and gas came principally from Saudi and Venezuela, Canada’s oil exploration and supplies suffered for lack of US shipments to major US refineries. (Self serving Canadian politicians didn’t do the countries economic recovery any favors either) But it persevered and recovered. ready for the next ‘unservivable’ battle!
I don’t know what to expect – keep thinking I shouldn’t buy and it keeps going up so—
Sent in for your new program on Saturday and am puzzled as to why I haven’t heard a confirmation from you. Was in Elkins, WV on son’s computer and we lost electricity twice – am wondering if you received my order?
I have lost faith in all of the Money institutions in this country. When it goes bad, it’s bad all over, everyone lose. I had a substantial amount of money in my 401K and now I have nothing. I will now be putting my money in a safe in my house. Who cares about interest? There is none when it’s all gone.
I don’t think Klaus is doing a very good job on stock picking, the last thing people are going to be doing in a market bust is renting tv’s or going to the dollar store, both of those stocks sport pretty high pe’s. I think you should concentrate on really defensive issues or wait until there is a downturn in the market.In your newsletter a suggestion was made that LINE was a good buy and it has turned into one of my winners. I agree with your view of the market and its lack of foundation but there are basics which people need to survive ie energy and food I would think that easing into such investments would be something to consider. Thanks for your asking for imput E. Carlson
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” Thomas Jefferson.
As a founding father, Jefferson saw the establishment of America based on biblical truths…..the down fall of America is due to those in control (be it corporations or government entities) in oposition of those truths. Foreign currencies ie., Australian dollar will benefit from our demise.
Hi Martin,
Yes I agree with you – our Govt in Australia is doing the same thing and spending like drunken sailors – my concern is also the level of debt. Not just the country but also personal debt level – we all need to take responsibility, pull our horns in and do with less and save more. Reduce our debt all be it dollar by dollar then we can basically “recession Proof ” ourselves.
Cheers Chris
Precious metals are always a port in an inflationary storm, but once they rise substatially in anticipation of high inflationlevels, it is too late to invest therein. Once the inflation is eased, or if governments confiscate them as happened once before, their value can retreat as quickly as it advanced; timing is everything.
Sent today to my business network……Greetings Martin.
Greetings from Vancouver,
Suddenly a lot of pundits are beginning to finally get the message……….. Even Martin Weiss is warning of the potential for the demise of America? Those who know me, know I have believed for many many years, that their debt driven economy would ultimately bankrupt their middle class, mortally wound their empire, and force a new definition of the “American Dream” upon their citizenry and politicians!
From my point of view this is nothing more than the natural consequence of poor management and fiscal irresponsibility, at any level of enterprise! What continues to amaze me, is that they still seem to generally believe they can buy their way out of this situation? This is nothing more than the continuing folly of ignorant men, and wishful thinking! Self delusion on the part of the Senators and Representatives in Washington, from both political parties! They should all be forced to read (or reread) the “apology of Socrates” so to reinvigorate their sense of honesty, and self awareness as to their lack of wisdom, (“These men of Athens”)?
No amount of “squirming” is going to recapture that great potential that was once America. That “Shining city on the hill” as President Reagan mused? Hopefully what will eventually emerge is a more chastened America, with less arrogance toward it’s neighbors, and a new understanding of the real consequences of personal greed and excess. A new “participant” in the good work, of building a new and better world for all mankind, “a paradise” as envisioned by President Truman. It is so sad when one realizes, that the U.S has had such leaders and dreamers of great dreams, as Lincoln and Roosevelt and Truman and Kennedy and Eisenhower etc; and now O’Bama, and still the arrogance of empire persists within it’s body politic.
An arrogance that displays itself so frequently, when the “good” men of government try to open a new path to the future, this poison within their system bars the way. These “manifest destiny” thinkers who still insist on the Aristotlean philosophies of elitism to rule their world, which contradiction, in most of scholarly opinion, has been the ultimate downfall of every Empire since the beginning of time!
I hope that “common sense” with a more Plato – nic aspiration, becomes the ruling intelligence of the new America. It is time to shut the access doors to government, so easily entered by these fools and parasites, always acting on behalf (lobbying) of elitist, hedonistic and usually “minority” extremist viewpoints, while using verbiage and rhetoric, such as “Americas destiny” and “God’s country” to incite divisiveness at all levels of government. These people who use threat and intimidation, as their weapons of choice and never logic, against those who think in a more logical humanist and humane way…. the “common sense” of the will of the people. It is the real intellect of our society. The combined intellectual will of the people is not “stupid”!
James M. Convey
Hummer sold to China ? To me this is a sign the US is in trouble. They also said that it will save thousands of jobs in the US ? Is this how the Obama administration makes the world Greener ?
hello Martin thanks for your insight and truthful mails, please tell us about hyperinflation, thanks again richard God Bless
The best days this country has had in the past are definitely behind us. The only ‘Americans’ that will come out of this will be the ‘minorities’ and the illegal – as well and the legal – immigrants. The so-called ‘white’ race has had it and will in no way survive!
However, once the above have ‘taken over’ our country, the country will then completely fall apart under their noses. Why?: Can you imagine how with the overall kind of mentality taking over will fair? Just think about it! We will not even rate as a ‘third world’ country, for anything left worth confiscating will be confiscated by some other county, (such as China or Arabia). You say you don’t believe it? Just wait for another five to ten years at most to pass.
In her statement today DEENA said GOD has nothing to do with the problems in our economy that the people have to work together to solve the problems. I strongly disagree. GOD has blessed this nation since it came into being. I believe that GOD has removed His hand of blessing because of our nation’s imorality (hundreds of thousands abortions,same sex marriage issue, the overall decline of morality of the people)we need only to look in the old testament and see how the people were punished when they turned from GOD and how they were blessed when they repented and turned back to GOD. I beleive our country and economy is in for some very hard times.
Dear Martin,
I personally want to thank you for your open address to the American people to assist them in understanding the nature of the economic events taking place at this time. You have intelligently chosen a way of communication which is based on common sense and tangible, quantifiable criteria. You also have imbedded in your messages a message for the hearts of people. You have encouraged us all not to give up, self educate, read, be brave, and above be pro-active. This speaks well of you and your family background. You are a blessed man. You have found your calling in life and your God given talent. Keep using it!
From my perspective I want to think that the rest of the world can help America to discipline itself. We should be encouraging other people of the Earth who believe in sound money, rule of law, property rights, to speak up against the current US regime and its policies which will greatly inhibit the American peoples economic freedom. We must encourage the Swiss to stand up to the US Treasury with regard to their income tax treaty, we must encourage our Japanese friends to insist that Washington act responsibly. We must do these things until the current generation of Americans are no longer in power. My nepehews generation, he is 27 years old, are the ones we need to run our country. Not these people who were warped in the 60’s and 70’s.
Perhaps we all need to live a little more humbly and certainly within our means. People all over the world have had to do this. Why should we be any different.
I encourage you to speak openly about the issues that face us. Simply encouraging people to make the right investment decisions with their capital may not be enough though when those in power are acting in an unconstitutuional manner and reshaping our economy in ways which are very destructive.
Can we simply get the world not to buy the US Treasury’s debt?
For me I own: Silver etfs, Gold (pooled), money markets, Kiwi CDs, Canadian Corporate bonds, Canadian oil company, Allianz Preferred Shares, and I have shorted both the Russel 2000 and the S&P 500.
Again thank you for your boldness.
God Speed!
Paul Camp Lane
Mount Dora, Florida
I am old enough to remember the “Carter” years. If you spend more than you have and compensate by printing more… inflation rears its ugly head. The current unwillingness to allow companies and industries to face the results of poor mangement and reckless investing will be the end of the US as we know it. Ask the Japanese how long it took them to recover from their banking crisis. Their government tried the same things… reckless spending massive public works… none of which worked. Only time and discpline in the markets worked.
As a 61-year-old professional with multiple degrees, unemployed for two years, I have gone back to my training (I was in business management and sales for a number of years) and am doing legal research for other attorneys. I’d be practicing bankruptcy law (the only booming area of practice currently) were it not for the fact that I never bothered to get admitted to the bar in my current home state. The research business looked promising for awhile, but now many of my potential customers–small law firms–are going bankrupt themselves.
Even when “the economy” has supposedly been healthy, the real unemployment rate has often been at levels unseen many decades ago. Now “the economy” is supposedly in the toilet. I was unemployed and broke before the market crash, and I am unemployed and broke now. Who the heck gives a flying you-know-what how “the economy” is doing when jobs are evaporating or going overseas and the only people being bailed out are the white collar criminal class that created this mess with the help of their hired hands in government?
For what it’s worth, I’ll offer my gratuitous observation on solutions: there is no effective solution possible until the U.S. taxpayers decide to buy their government back from the sleazy corporate interests currently running the show. That will require full public campaign financing. Otherwise, the banks, insurance companies, oil companies, pharmaceutical corporations and evil “geniuses” behind the takeover of the world’s agriculture through genetic engineering will continue to make life on this entire planet less and less viable.
I agree with everything in the Safe Money Report except I’m worried about shorting equities into a hyperinflation scenario where everything goes up in dollar terms just because the dollar goes down in purchasing power. To me, shorting equity indexes is too risky and the better risk-reward profile is to be long gold/silver bullion and commodities and short long-term bonds, while holding some cash. I don’t see how interest rates don’t go through the roof under either a good or bad economic/stock market scenarios because the bond market will sell off due to global sector rotation back into stocks/hard assets.
America is flat broke at all levels, and I also fall into the “we’re seriously screwed” camp. Better to get the collapse over with and re-build with true capitalism not money printing.
I feel that rising interest rates will adversely affect all business and individuals in this country. Not only will it increase the cost of borrowing, but it will have a huge, detrimenatal effect on the economy. This will have a negative impact on U.S. investments.
Money printing out of thin air will lead to hyper inflation down the road. In essence, this is a tax on each American and will destroy the U.S. dollar.
My investments will be in foreign stocks, inverse long term bond ETFs, commodities, precious metals, U.S. stock market EFFs and inverse ETFs.
How can I protect my dollar (cash). I have some gold and silver, oil stocks (BP, XOM), Potash , JA Solar, Tata Motors, Osiris, Intuitive Surgical, PST and SRS inverse ETFs. What more can I do?
Thanks,
Joelle
The best days this country has had in the past are definitely behind us. The only ‘Americans’ that will come out of this will be the ‘minorities’ and the illegal – as well and the legal – immigrants. The so-called ‘white’ race has had it and will in no way survive!
However, once the above have ‘taken over’ our country, the country will then completely fall apart under their noses. Why?: Can you imagine how with the overall kind of mentality taking over will fair? Just think about it! We will not even rate as a ‘third world’ country, for anything left worth confiscating will be confiscated by some other county, (such as China or Arabia). You say you don’t believe it? Just wait for another five to ten years at most to pass.
i just read an article that makes since to me . why gm can’t start building high speed trains it would put millions back to work cars are going to be obsolite in just a few years example, i live in naples fl. most people who work here live in or around ft. myers they commute everyday average mileage is 20 to 45 miles they are now making I75 into 6 lanes my question is why not a high speed rail in the middle of I75 one day soon & it’s almost there now it will all be a huge metro city why waste so much money on roads i lived in cincinnati & took a bus to work had to change onto another bus in downtown still i clocked in at the same time everyday travel time was a total of 35 minuties
I worry that Wall Street Types are advising the President and his team is not going to listen to independent researchers with the wisdom and experience that comes from not being in that crowd.
I worry the govt’s debt is going to blow out the value of the dollar (even though I know this has been done before and that this will be done again should we stick to fiat currencies. I worry there will be a currency crisis even though I understand what and why the govt thinks it is doing the right thing. As you have said before this debases anyone who lends their money to a corp or govt. I worry that the people of America do not understand these things and are not educated in our public school systems to “get” this. They apparently are mostly consumers and not builders of wealth.
I worry that the Chinese manufacturers are even bigger idiots than our govt officials and we are selling our companies to them where they will substitute inferior materials or toxic ones because of their greed. And I worry that the renimbi is getting stronger and is now being shoved onto the world stage to be the world currency. I don’t trust them one bit for anything even though I understand your recommendations to buy their markets and individual companies. I ab”soul”utely will not buy chinese if I can possible help it. They are not ready for the world stage and have fooled even you and your team (in my humble opinion) which doesn’t preclude, however, building wealth through their markets but…
I believe GM will be run into the ground eventually by following the president’s edicts and the whims of the unions. Good luck to them. I believe their are new auto cos replacing this one as it eventually becomes a bit player. Tesla motors and Fisker Automotive and others will emerge as the car companies to watch eventually.
Pimco is tell the instutional investors to place part of their portfolio in tips. They believe the coming inflation will provide solid returns on the tips.
Ken
Martin, if the dollar is devaluded what will that mean for our short term treasury bills, will they be as well?
Mike Zirbes
Our standard of living is starting to change as fast as technology. Our government is making sure of that. They are literally stealing our property and time via taxation without representation and the continuously increasing amount of political regulation for whatever “crisis” pops up. Politics offers attractive solutions, they disregard the economic trade-offs. Ultimately, the public ends up paying as taxpayers for things that they would not have chosen to pay for as consumers. The politicians are the winners and self-determination dies! As per the WSJ: It’s time to create an Economic Growth Code whose purpose is to fix and grow the economy, not redistribute massive amounts of wealth. A new tax code that creates growth and reforms our entitlement system is the only way to dig our way out of the hole. We cannot live under this mountain of debt for political purpose. When will our elected representatives start doing the RIGHT thing versus following party politics to maintain power? I think we know the answer…
I subscribed to your Million Dollar Contrainian Fund and I realize patience is a virtue, but I am starting to question the validity of the strategy. I don’t know, thats why I am relying on Money and Markets! You predicted the dramatic fall in the market and I did move part of my money into T-bills and I thank you for that.
To respond to your questions, I do believe that the United States will survive if we unite relying on values that made ours an economic powerhouse that the world envies, not a third world debtor country.
How can we survive with the interference of elected officials who have no understanding of economics, financial guru’s who are motivated by greed and an uneducated electorate who keeps voting these bozo’s into office. We have an administration who’s true agenda is not saving our free market systey, but to destroy it. All that said, I believe we are truly at a crossroads economically, socially and morally and I have to believe “the silent majority” will finally return our country to sanity. Let hope and pray for that return!
What is the forecast total world wide borrowing, over the next year, of Countries, Local Governments, Companies, Institutions, Individuals, etc etc.?
What is the total forecast world wide savings over the same period?
The answer to these two questions seems to me critical, and has enormous implications should there be a great divergence.
Why will no one address this question?
Best regards,
Michael.
Martin, I have about 25% of my portfolio short on the dow, financials etc., There is no way that we can absorb all of this new debt and funny money and not have a melt down. The laws of supply and demand will not be denied. Also, when anything becomes to plentiful, it decreases in value, it makes no difference if it is dollars, wheat, oil, etc. Given this picture, I am holding my positions, I expect the market to speak shortly and we will see this insantity reap its reward. Thanks, for your data, and perspectitive. I appreciate your and your peoples work. Harry Coambes, Owner, Harmac Trading.
Still afraid to go in the water. Currently planning to invest in T-bills on a rotational (13 week) basis to lock in current rates and be ready to re-invest at higher rates. I’m anticipating that rates will go up bringing a larger return on each rotation. IT’S SAFE!
The USA has become the economic superpower that it is in the last 100 odd yrs as it has been selling to world what the world needed autos , oil , computers& weapons.Today the demand for these has gone down & u r no longer the high quality supplier for these products. OIL u dont have . So what is the way forward for the US ? In my humble opinion it is invention , the US is where most of the inventions have taken place. I feel if the US concentrated on alternative forms of energy & developed and sold technology ,eqpt etc to the world u would slove your own problems plus help the rest of us .We all know there is a stong oil lobby in the US but OIL is not the way foward for u as u dont have it.
America, survive we will. However, it can take another generation or so before we once again thrive. The social experiments being thrust upon us as the solution to recession and the profligate, cheap money of the recent past will need to run their course.
Rising interest rates may improve investment income for me, but most likely will not compensate for higher living cost and taxes soon to be endured.
I expext to stay prudently hedged in some securities that represent hard assets and economies growing faster than underlying inflation.
It is indeed a sad state of affairs! However I believe we will endure and come out better than before. As far as pseudo symbols of wealth and prestige are concerned we will suffer great losses but therein lies my optimism. The nonsensical path that we have been on since God only knows how long, has to and will end. Now I will leave that to much smarter people to forcast when, but all I know is that time and price are the ultimate medicine that this debt disease requires to heal. After that eventual painful process is allowed to finally run its course in place of the drugs of debasement and manipulation now being used to just mask the symptoms of our debt disease, we will reclaim our true American spirit and we will rise like a phoenix from the ashes. We went into this mess as the land of entitlement and we will come out reclaiming our true identity as the land of opportunity.
Yes,we will survive…three more years.
It’s almost time to short the stock market again. This sell down was intentional by the wallstreet crooks. They got control of all the stock again by scaring many into selling the lows. The inventory is boxed up now. Longs defended the 200 ema today and will continue to push prices up if they feel that the shorts have not surrendered.
Most of the overhang is gone so the longs will continue to bid up prices to try to get new longs to come in. Be aware, this can crater as soon as the longs are done distributing.
They will then keep bidding and selling more to establish a short position and will then reverse. Then one day the bad news will start every day. They do one thing, lie, cheat and steal.
Precious metals, mining stocks, copper cos, silver and gold mining cos, deep water oil/gas drilling cos, with the US dollar being destroyed by high inflationary interests, one must be diligen to invest in assets which are positively influenced by a world in financial meltdown.
The market looks like being disconnected from our economy. The ups and downs over the
past 5 months did not follow a pattern…like good news “up” and bad news “down” ! the
situation looks like manipulation.
I do not believe the market is the place for retirement investments anymore.
As long as the life insurance companies are able to work without government interference this
might be a place with good and steady return.
It is interesting to look historically (1400’s) at how China has treated countries that are beholden to it. The USA is now in the same position with regard to China. I just hope that some crazy US politicians do not come to the conclusion that the only way to remove the “China problem” is to go for war.
Who ever came up with the idea that “service industries and offshoreing production” can replace making things where they are needed in a sustainable manner was a damned fool. So were those that believed him or her. It is time to wake up and do some real industrial activity…making tangible things that people need and adding real value. Meanwhile I am despairing of the idiots that we call a government here in the UK….. they are leading us down a similar path to that of the USA.
This has been interesting reading. Ed
Why is the administration unable to see that bailouts will not succeed?
If Companies and Institutions are in bankruptcy they are under supervision of a Bankruptcy Judge who has the knowledge and experience needed to guide them. I shudder to think what will happen to them under the control of administration amatuers.
Dr. Weiss, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay all have had many expansions of cr. backed by nothing except good intentiions. Products needed by the world are what we don’t provide here in the USA and now we’re changing the laws of our land for the expediency of the left, to make sure that we become a third world country. Poor people are easier to govern if they first have to line up for the government dole. Our cost of government thru the weakening of our currency and the high taxation rate of our achievers guarantees our becoming a welfare state led by countries capable of leading the world in achievements such as science, math, medicine and freedom.
Martin:
I am slightly angry with you and it is nothing personal at all I want you to know. But to not put often in you M and M comments that holding inverse ETFs (both 1 X and 2X) is very damaging in the long run was remiss. Even if a person holds them through flat markets they erode in value. Also there was not enough comments about why this stock market was rallying in face of terrible underlying fundamentals in the economy. I think it would have been better for you to say “Let’s get out of these now because altho my reasons are correct it is not good to fight the printing presses of the world’s central banks.” I think that the Fed is more powerful than supply and demand forces. Sorry to say. However, I still will read your column and heed your advice with a little more restraint. Thank you
I just sold my stocks and ETF funds,over a million dollars.I have a lot of cash and not sure what to do with it. I’m 68 years old and retired.I think GOLD, GOLD FUNDS and foreign ETF ,EWZ, FXI, INP, EWY. PGJ look like good investment to me. What do you think? I’m not at all sure what I should be doing.It looks to me like the hole US market is in big trouble.
MW: My nick name for you is: “The Bear of Jupiter”. On many details you have been on target, some of which are indeed scary.
I am concerned as a working retiree with 3 state/federal pensions plus being employed full time. My annuity investments have shrunk to less than a 1/2 mil and one: GenWorth makes it extremely difficult to manipulate the funds positioned in a variable annuity. NEVER use GenWorth for anything as they are a bunch of unethical business people.
What to do? well I can keep on working until I know not when, but there is no ultimate guarantee on the existence of any job. A complete collapse of our society and the odds, while small, are not zero would call for some drastic physical action on my part. I am mentally prepared to do what has to be done to protect a spouse and perhaps some of my grown children.
Please continue to present real data that can be used as a decision base. Can assets be gathered in any other way? Metals? What is the best site overseaa…New Zeeland? So many questions, so little time. I do think inflation will finally rear its head when people stop their short term saving rates so please monitor that function.
Thank you for your presentation,
RR$, Boynton Beach, FL
What is good for GM is good for America. If bankruptcy is good for GM, so it is for America.
America was once the largest creditor and today is the largest debtor. In my younger days countries like India would pay visit to Washington, Geneva, London with a begging bowl. Now it is the turn of once mighty US to go to China. Let us not assume that Chinese have nowhere to invest or lend but us.
This transformation has occurred in just 30 years. Unless USA reverses its trade deficit and budget deficit into surpluses, it is inevitable that there is a decline in the standard of living of US, with a significant fall in the value of US currency, possibility of defaults (like many Latin American and African countries).
Martin,
OBAMA, AND THE 40 THIEVES…
I have purchased your services, as well as several other. In the last 4 months, I have spent nearly $10K on expert advise… and so far I am up a little in gold but losses in everything else.
I consider you and Claus to be among the best, and I work with several other professionals who have outstanding track records. Yet, thus far I am riding losses, and suffering the sleepless nights that go with being on the wrong side of the market.
I have conviced myself that you are correct and have held on to all of my positions, however we are very close to stopping out if the market goes any higher. Klaus himself is at the same point with a line in the sand.
I am not sure if it is my imagination… but it seems obvious to me that the markets are being seriously manipulated..Other services openly discuss this possibility… Yesterday in the midst of what should have been a dire day… the market shot up and stayed up 200+ points… You could see the market was not even breathing… it was very manipulated looking and had very little swing or breath to it. Every bit of news that comes out, which is really negative, is portrayed as positive, and the market jumps!!!
“LESS WORSE THEN EXPECTED” IS THE MANTRA
Again, fundementally I think you are right… but the reality to this point is that you have been wrong… as those of us who have followed are suffering..
Other advisors have gone as far as to state that they know the markets are rigged, but are okay with it… as long as they can see it…
These clowns in Washington are desperate politicians, and we all know that politicians are all or nearly all crooks. They are fully capable of using every trick in the book to make themselves appear right and in control.. I believe the desperation of these people needs to be filtered into your thinking in a more obvious way..
LIKE GEITNER TELLING THE CHINESE THERE MONEY IS SAFE AND BEING LAUGHED AT.
In the end… I believe in the markets… however these jerks are doing tremendeous damage… and will continue to do so… unless they are stopped, or caught being the unlawful manipulators they are.
OBAMA AND THE 40 THIEVES… THESE ARE A BUNCH OF DESPERATE AND DANGEROUS PEOPLE…… IF WE ARE GOING TO DO BUSINESS WITH THEM… WE NEED TO KNOW IT.
Dear Martin.
Timing the market will be quite difficult under this world circuntances where all central banks are trying to mantain the wealth (or feeling of wealth ) ASAP and as long as they can. My vision is that for political reasons we will devaluate currencies in USA ,Europe and some others countries. This is the way the market will pay the bill in first step.
So, I recomend to study serious and conservative economies based in basic ( soft commodities ) natural resourses . Study wich best countries would mantain balance of trade and balance of payment under pressure circunstances.
Gold and energy should be a good hedge for long term. In gold i recomend to select also some Juniors companies ( less liquid ) but with no risk of operatión and very poorly valued in compare to very big gold companies that will accumulate lot of cash to by some junior ones in order to increase the value of the stock based on reserves.
In energy ( and/or, currency ?¿ ) should we study companies or countries ( and their currencies ) to bid ? ( From Rusia to Emirats ? ).
Anny way hidro-electric suppliers will improve in yield if oil continue their rally .
Martin what is your feeling of Brasil, Russia and Korea economies and currencies ?
Best regards
It is likely that real value will remain with Governments/currencies that do not ‘print’ money from thin air. However, best bet is on precious metals, since gold and silver can be an exchange commodity that is relatively fixed and stable. Being paid in dollars may be a thing of the past sooner than we think.
Scott Whipps
will run away inflation take real estate with it as it did during the Carter years? Thanks, bpust
There are so many posts and I have not gone through all of them but one thing I would like everyone to keep in mind is that even though Martin would love a repeat of his father’s success and most of us with him there might be significant differences this time round with all the manipulation etc. My point being your predictions need to be well thought through and honest people are putting their hard earned money behind you and your team’s vision.
It’s all a big poker game now as the USA tries to bluff it’s way through as it has done so many times in the past. It has the deepest pockets at the table (for now). Will it work? I don’t know but it sure is getting interesting.
The good side of all this is that foreigners have not been able to buy U.S. Companies at fire sale prices because the U.S. Government has tied up most of the major U.S. companies that are in financial trouble.
I’m trading currency and looking into entering new businesses with low overhead which I believe will be replacing the top heavy companies in certain industries of the former 20th century.
Martin please let me know if I can be of help to your organization in any way. I’d like to repay some of the great long term advice you have given.
Anthony DiChiara,
Newport Beach, California
Martin, Thanks for your advice. This was caused by the banking and financial lobbyists in getting rid of the safeguards and the CDO’s and CDS’s came about. The politicians we elected are self serving and seem to care less about our wishes, with the exception of a few… The president is spending taxpayer funds like water. Imagine flying to Vegas to support a fellow politician then on to California to a $30,000.00 a plate dinner to discuss our nation being broke. Think of the cost to the taxpayers to do this. There is no concern for being frugal and saving taxpayer funds. The new leader is sinking the ship and apparently is a true narcissist striving to rule the world !!! ………..retired
Martin,
Do you think it is good tome to buy DXD. ultra shot Dow.
Please advise.
Thanks
Martin,
I believe precious metals will seriously outperform US stocks, international stocks and world currencies in the coming years. Global equity markets and the world’s major currencies are all realing from the same devastation and it will probably take years to undo the destruction.
As is generally the case, there will be some exceptions; some individual companies will profit dramatically, perhaps some even more so than precious metals, however, I believe precious metals and in particular, gold, provides the best chance of overall greatest gains within the broader investment categories you’ve named.
The only thing I don’t understand is your most current buy recommendation. I had FDO when I bought your book. In it, you said sell stocks now, before it’s too late. I did and now just a few short weeks later, you’re telling me to buy the same stock you just told me to sell. Did you mean it when you said sell it or do you mean it now when you say buy it? I want to believe and stick with you, but you’re making it hard with flip-flops like this.
I look at the bigger picture and see the housing market being stagnant for the foreseeable future. I see the next batch of vacant homes coming from bankrupt baby boomers by the thousands. I see total collapse of the dollar and a very deep depression preceded by and accompanied by riots and total civil unrest for food and survival goods within a year. U.S. jobs are gone with the era we sent them. We can not survive selling information to each other. We are going to have to start over. It will be very difficult and allot won’t make it. We will be vulnerable to attack from many and they will. We simply can’t sustain the economy, the entitlements, the new healthcare, the bailouts, the unemployed and all the other places we’ve thrown money with the thought process of giving stimulis to the poor and taxing the wealthy businesses. That is a recipe for total collapse. Personally, as a former businessman myself, if a company is so stupid to rack up the debt that GM did without stopping sooner to fix the problem, then I say, let them fail like any other business who is out of control!
It will be a sudden and total colapse in some 36 months
I love Robert Bullards phrase :Administration Amatuers” and believe that’s the answer in a nutshell !!!! Let’s get some REAL PEOPLE in office Some Patriotic knowlegable Americans that give a D_ _ _ about OUR NATION !!! Take the checkbook away from Mr.Change or thats all that will be left is small change. (I approve this message) RSR
I am currently investing in Dryfus China and Malaisa funds, which are doing well at this time, in addition to gold (GLD). It appears that the market (and world) are swallowing everything they hear coming from Obama; everytime he speaks, the market goes up. Until reality sets in, I can’t take a bearish stance.
As far as the United States future is concerned, nowhere in Biblical prophecy is there any mention or alluding to a force or kingdom across the sea, as it probably would if the western world played a part in the end times. My conclusion is that the United States will not be a force to be reckoned with. According to Mr. Obama, we are no longer a Christian nation. Do you think God is listening?
Q. Will America survive?
A. In some form, yes. But not as has been up to now. Just how it will change will be influenced by gatherings of the strongest voices. Strength is in numbers.. people getting together with one accord. When enough pain is engendered, groups will form to press their own agendas and alter the course of government.
It is impossible to be more specific today, but your advice and observations, Martin Weiss, are as good as can be had in this day and age. You are uniquely qualified to be the man of the hour. Thank heavens for your compassion and background, and the influence of your father. May the Creator have mercy on us for what we have done to ourselves, our progeny, and this once-great country. We have only our own generation to blame for letting it go this far.
Q. How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
A. Those are bound to impact everything, and in ways we can scarcely comprehend at this juncture. There is no doubt that pay-back will involve a “tumbling down”, a “crashing”, in many aspects of our economy. A major change to a new and different, credible, economy is the only thing that can come of our past and present course. The specifics of how this will happen comes more from your lips, Martin, than can possibly come from any less knowledgeable source. Those who have the background, and then the logic, to understand what they see around them, and the fortitude to go against the prevaling ignorance, will survive in the best possible fashion. The rest of us will survive, or not, as best we can as we live through actual events that will surely happen to the rest of us, as hapless as we are in the face of the unthinkable. Those who can take your advice will come out as well as it is possible with all things financial disolving and morphing around us.
My investments are in Silver. I believe this to be the “common man’s survival medium of exchange”. I do not care, beyond that, whether the price is up or down as compared to USD.
I only care how the value is compared to food and other essentials.
Q. Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
A. Martin, I can only turn to you for those answers, insofar as I can understand and make sense of what is offered. My own opinion is logical for what I know, but not nearly as logical and knowledgeable as yours. My opinion is that essential commodities will remain dear while most all else declines in value. I am not sure just how far one can take the idea (or principle) that “by definition, when one currency declines there is a bull market in another”. Therefore I am afraid of currencies. Is it not possible that virtually ALL currencies can decline in value at one time?
That I do not know. I do know that people WILL trade in whatever has credibility.
Of course, GOLD and SILVER (of which I own all I can, but that is a very small amount ) seem to be the utopian commodities of the ages. Oil seems destined to become much more precious for years to come. Other essentials (grains and other foods, shelter items, self defense items, etc.) – essentials – will always be in demand, but buyers may not have the assets to buy. Barter time is coming.
Owning commodties via ETFs scares me for the same reason as it scares another writer on this blog. The reason these “paper assets” scare me is that I doubt if we can completely trust anything that resides in the hands of commercial accounts (brokers, banks, etc.). Why would be believe that brokers.. or the US government.. will pay off when we make our demands?
Ah, yes, we can think in terms of disaster, but can we think out the full length of sound logic? What is the likely end game to this disaster? We must still eat, drink, find shelter, and defend.
We do not and will not know which day is the last for normal commerce until it happens.
That said, there will continue to be tremendous profits in esseential commodities.. and some companies stocks.. and perhaps some currencies.. until suddenly it will be (unanounced in advance).. game over. Who will care to pay their debts when disaster is upon them? Not brokers or banks.. or Obama. Can we depend on foreigners to pay when we are powerless to coerce them?
God bless you Dr. Martin Weiss. We all owe you a tremendous debt of gratitude for the knowledge that you have been compelled by your humanity to share with us. When God allows us to have a problem (which we ourselves create, of course) he always raises up good people to lead the way toward the light. Then it is up to us to have the grace and smarts to follow.
Please lead on.
Bud T
Jax, FL
The world trade and the world economy is slowing dramatically – people will always need food, water, money, and energy to survive in a modern world. Currencies are traded in pairs – there is always a “bull market” for smart investors. Agriculture etf’s for future food and water crisis events yet to appear, and commodities that deal with raw materials (some level of global inflation is already built-in) of production.
If worldwide hyper-inflation breaks out then the last standing will be governments, big business and unions. Since there debt will be wiped out by the process. Investments in stocks of key protected industries in and outside the US will be required to survive the next ten years.
When the government puts the tools of production in the hands of the workers / unions
Then it is not socialism it is COMMUNISM and it is failed system and we are doomed unless this Washington Central Committie is disbanded or removed!!!
Dear Dr. Weiss: First of all,thank you. Because of reading your commentary I had sense enough last Sept. to leave the stock market with only minimal loss. Your article of last Dec 1st which flatly called the economic situation a “depression” was also a sad,significant milestone. Now exactly 6 months to the day after that article another even sadder milestone-GM is bankrupt! I am a 55 year old “retired” man.(Read that UNEMPLOYED.) I started my IRA in 1981. One of my biggest fears is that my IRA funds will be lost in the coming economic catastophe. How can I get my IRA overseas into an IRS compatible vehicle? Should I be thinking this way? Having been on the sidelines for nearly 9 months, watching the worsening situation, I frankly don’t know what to do. How I wish I could have afforded subscription to your contrarian advisory! What God- awful milestone will the US be facing in another 6 months?! Lawrence Heath
I think that many Americans have learned a valuable lesson in recent months that excess debt and greed can be costly and will catch up with many of us. We need to stay humble, flexible and educated about how this money thing works. We must remember that no body can predict the future with 100% accuracy and that no matter how poorly our government fashions a response plan to the woes we face, people will continue to find this free market system, and the U.S. is still as good as it gets!
Yes – the wealth of America will continue to be distributed, and with great speed to powerful people in high places and to various nations until America is decimated! – bankrupt! For that is the plan. It’s intentional. The powerful hidden force of the Conspiracy (which we’ve smuggly denied so many times), having come this far, is in full swing now to take control of what’s left of our country’s wealth and power and transfer it to their one-world headquarters – the godless United Nations! We are not organized against it. We’ve lived our luxurious lives as careless, proud “useful-idiots”. So, once there – surprise! We and our country will lose all we have left and become their ponds!
Because it is not their money, politicians of all creeds feel much the same that ‘you can always get out by paying’ or perhaps it should be printing? And in the end that is probably correct. ‘Money’ will always recover – whilst ever there is something like the human race in existence to need it. The point now though maybe that the human race through its ‘out of control economy’ has signed its own death warrant? In which case Mr Weiss, you has better return my money.
There are many challenging/scary things going on out there, but two strike me as the most important.
1- inflation is best defined as too much money chasing too few goods. M1 and M2 are on near vertical climbs, and most companies are/have been reducing inventory (Chrysler is a very recent example). The government and the traditional media talking heads will be the last to discuss the tidal wave of potential inflation that is coming our way, each having their reasons. The media because they are so bought into BHO that they wouldn’t say poop even if they had a mouthful of it, and besides, most of them are simply reading the scripts that they’ve been given, much like BHO. Within 18 months on the outside, we will be beaten up severely by inflation, and there is little that we can do besides either getting on the sidelines, or buying inverse investment vehicles.
2)Bigger and more scary is the surge by elitist politicians worldwide to establish a world government. Flow out the logic of “global warming” to see what the only and ultimate solution must be to stop “man’s” self destruction (hint: it’s world government). It’s not about money, it’s about power, pure power. Stop for a moment to think about the stories that we are being sold to combat global warming and polution, and who is serving up the stories. Al Gore, BHO, UN members (very recently). Oh, and by the way, the form of government won’t be modeled after the good ole USA’s form of government. Nope, not a chance. It’ll be hard core communism even though Reagan supposedly and singlehandedly ended communism. I’m sure that it warmed the hearts of every hard core leftist when they figured out that we’d convinced ourselves that communism was dead.
Make a pile of dough now, find a place to park it safely, and brace yourselves for the next wave of lunacy that’s already out of the gate. Beware out there.
DieselBoatMan
I agree totally, I have seen this coming for a long time. Everybody just simply wants to live beyond their means. The question is: What can we do about except bitch and gripe, the next election is almost 4 years off and by that time we will be down the tube!!1
We’ve followed Martin and Larry for years. Even read his “Survival” book. Hope he continues to be spot on. We’ve taken his advice and have moved most cash to American Century Preservation Funds. Yes, God Bless Us one and all. Younger folks
like my youngest son feel it’s over-reacting to make such a change. We’ll have to see,
won’t we?
Alot of people out there today on the blog including me tend on holding “cash” as an alternative or contrarian investment.
I have a stupid question.
What if the united states of america loses it’s reserve currency status and suffers a complete currency devaluation?
Will “holding cash” really help us? I think it will bury us.
Make sure to copy this blog entry with an “open date” of let’s say 3 years from now. Til then.
Hello Martin
So where is all this leading us, is the whole world going to fall apart? Will unemployment be 20%, 50%+? Are we doomed? Will the end of mortgages come? Should we buy, for example, a caravan/mobile home as survival with any cash we have now while companies are still producing? Is there light ahead, even if we follow your advice will the rest of the world be there to spend our profits? If renewable energy has no chance in catching up before we run out of oil, the whole situation looks bad…
What do you recommend?
Look forward to your comments.
Yours sincerely
John Orr
Many thanks
Hi Martin,
I agree with you on long-term consequences of Monetary Explosion. However, the short-to-intermediate impact is money velocity and liquidity flow. Remember that monetary arteries are gradually unclogged. TED spread is way down. Just like rising river lifts all boats, all assets will go up in the near term. This is my personal thinking.
Naidu
These are indeed scary times. The failure of GM represents the spiritual failure of the people of this country. We (the people of this country) no longer have the integrity, honesty, and moral compass (God’s divine principals in our hearts) to fall back on. God makes war on the arrogant, but gives grace to the humble. We as a nation are getting humbled by God because of our arrogance against him. This is very evident by the type of President that we the people elected.
We will survive this down turn, but not without a lot of pain and adjustment. My recomendation to my friends is to pay off as much debt as you can-ie your home, car,etc. Sell anything that you don’t really need in order to create liquidity. Cash will be king. I would also do the following:
1. Own some gold coins in order to trade and barter with.
2. Own a good selection of good dividend paying stocks such as gas and electric utilities. We will need basic services regardless of what happens.
3. Develop a skill that would perhaps allow you to do a service for others-this allows you to trade and barter better.
4. Watch for opportunities in the stock market. There will be plenty. The Dow 30 industrial stocks represent the best value for most folks right now. If you can afford to buy an equal number of shares in all 30 then do so. They have not been this cheap in a long time. Five years from now you will be well rewarded.
5. Consider moving to a small town if you do not live in one already. In a small town, people help look after one another and all of us have skills that we can use to provide a service to our neighbor.
Martin, America will survive thanks to people like you.
This country is doomed to go bankrupt. It will take five years or so but it WILL go under. The Dems have never been known to handle any economic problems well. I don’t think any of them have understood Econ 101. Read Thomas Sowell’s new book “The Housing Boom and Bust”.
It is too bad that we have newbe’s at the top. Pres. Obama is nothing but a Comm. organizer, never ran a business. We have a tax cheat,Tim Geithner at the helm. Does anyone know what they are doing. Either they know and are trying to bankrupt us or they are plain stupid and trying anything.
What clues, not if, can we look for that signals the onslaught of hyperinflation akin to what Germany exerienced in the past and what Zimbabwe is experiencing now.
Inflation or deflation? I am confused . I hear the view that all this money printing will lead to inflation. I hear the opposing view that the economy has shrunk so much that all the new currency printed is insufficient to keep up with what has been sucked out and that we are facing deflation.
The first scenario leads to commodity price increase, the latter to decrease. Help!
We all hate to be regulated but how can we put billions of dollars on a desk and expect everyone to be fair in taking a few? I think capitalism has failed woefully. It is wrong to point fingures at this point but I will blame Reagan and and Alan Greenspan for this mess. Obama is just a scapegoat in this episode.
Capitalism without regulations is like boxing without rules, anybody can hit below belt. This problems started from the 1990’s when derivatives showed it’s face – it was a very creative concept which the greedy ones wanted the government to take its hands-off so they can amass wealth.
And because none in gov’t understood the concept, they didn’t bother heeding to the warning signs that kept surfacing and now the innocent is becoming the culprit. Good luck to us all!
At the age of 60, I’ve never in my own life seen a time of more darkness and chaos. I read the negative taunts about the so-called “conspiracy theorists” while having also read as closely as possible on the other side of all of these various mindsets and arguments which seem to challenge each other as much as those opinions that I’ve read from the more traditional sides of matters.
I feel grievously concerned with the implications of all that I’ve read to date concerning this new “Amero” currency along with the ensuing NAU (North American Union) that is said to be in the frighteningly near future. I make no claims to having “the answer” to anything these days. I fervently believe that there has been (and remains) a great deal of “disinformation” which is being carefully disseminated throughout all that is happening around us currently. I fervently believe as well that there are dark forces at work in all that is happening around us presently, and that the implications of those forces are far too little understood by too many; a woefully sad thing indeed.
With everything in me, I wish that I could find some sign or symbol of real and meaningful hope for the continuation of this nation as we’ve all known it to now, but for the life of me I simply do not. And I hope above all things that at some future time, I will remain long enough to find that “things are never as bad as they seem”, and that in the end it will be the good which prevails.
Since the crash I have been investing in companies that produce things that are essential to industries to manufacture. ie. minerals and fuel. I have trebled my stock value in the last 8 months. I still feel that when the turnaround arrives I can still double the returns on these stocks. there is always an opening if you look for it. Seek and ye shall find!
The cental portion of the USA has been carrying the East and West coast for too long.
New York has long been nothing but a user and never a producer of anything. New York takes our money and our production and decides who gets it and for how much. The central states of America could produce all the energy and food needed if it did not
have to make a living for the leaches that sit in their offices skim all the cream off the milk. The break-up of the USA is long over due. Let’s down size the country and let the people that work for what they have alone.
Martin – It’s like you’ve said, before. We’ve got to see the bottom, before we can climb out of this hole that has been dug for us. Never again will America trust its government, … and maybe not Wall Street, either. Of course there will be a chance, soon, to get some good buys on bonds, but that’s for the longer term. What about short term, and growth. And, there are Inverse ETFs, but that’s risky, also. So, the immediate question I see is, “Will the deflation of a descending economy offset the inflation of the government’s printing of currency out of thin air?” What do you say?
Ladies and Gentlemen:
So as not to bore you with the specifics of my personal situation, I have just one question for Martin, who is the one person that I follow most closely, even though Lary E, Tony S., Mike L and Sean B are all very capable annalysts and advisors. I subscribe to every service you offer, including the Contrarian account, which is managed by Claus Vogt.
I really admire Claus and the methods he uses to reach conclusions of market direction, etc., and have tailored my account to reflect all of his reco’s. Here’s the question: In Martin’s opinion, is this truly a bear market rallye? Should I hold about eight (8) inverse ETF’s, countless put options on the Diamond Trust, expiring in Sept. and Dec. , 2009, or should I proceed to sell all and not try to fight this confounding market sentiment and euphoria, and get back in at a later time? If I sell all, substantial losses will be incurred as most contrarian positions were taken in Jan. & Feb., 2009.
Many thanks for your consideration and prompt reply. Wishing you all a great week and wonderful summer, and may you and your families stay well. Best of regards, Fred Tuerpe’
I went to a local “Pops” concert of predominately Civil War music. At that moment I realizec
the the US has survived a lot. This is our generational crisis.
I’m not sure it’s so much will America survive it’s more of what will America be when it is over? IMO Gov has no business in owning businesses, banks, insurance companies or the like unless it is through a privately ran Sovereign Wealth Fund. How much better off would we be if instead of bailing out these insolvent institutions we were instead investing those trillions? My point is if I’m smart enough to figure this out and it is not being done something else is and what is being done is being done with special interests in mind and not the American tax payer.
“Home of the government owned land of the less privileged”
President Obama is creating a political juggernot to guarantee his agendas, economic and political, will be ‘planted’ and ‘grow’. The unions, black and latino communities, the progressive community (such as Hollywood types) select industries (energy, PC, universities, green industries), and democrat states and cities. President Obama intends to build a ‘brave new world’! BUT, he has surrounded himself with ‘children type councelors who know not history or economics. ‘This’ administration believes that political power makes right. How wrong they are. God help us all!!
In my humble opinion, what is coming will make the inflation of the Wiemar Republic look like the good old days! The dollar is losing value with each spin of the Treasury Department’s printing presses, prices of food stuffs and other essentials rise daily. There was a recent article on the Drudge Report which was said to have been an excerpt from Pravda titled “American Capitalism Gone with a Wimper.” Whatever the source, it aptly discribed the loss of our Representative Republic and the astounding speed by which the sheeple have been conned into accepting pure Communism. That article should be must reading for every remainig Patriot. It will go right over the heads of everyone else!
“sell and go away” Here we go, I am short on the contrarian portfolio so effectively I am selling. I am also leaving to South Africa and Botswana tomorrow to do some hunting and tiger fishing with no connectivity from Sunday. Could I sleep at night, without worrying about my M@M exposure? Don’t think so, so I will be driving to town every day to get onto the internet and check. What a waist of good time? sell and go away has a new meaning.
I am 87 and conservative investor and have must of my portfolio in Fed. Mtgs. Should I sell and take the loss? I don’t trust they will be FDIC
Thomas Paine said, “These are the times that try men’s souls”. It seems every generation has such times. Trying times both physically and spiritually.
I agree with your physcial assessments, as an amateur in economics I have noticed many patterns and read a lot opinions. My views differ slightly.
Most everyones guesses about our future as a country and a people are just that guesses. Some may be more accurate, some less. Who do we believe, if we make a mistake, truly trying.
And of course as a amateur econmist I do have my grand conspiracy theory. Only I have to keep adjusting it, ha-ha, ah-well. At least we now know what a debt economy actually means. No more theory and guessing on who, what, where, when and why.
I believe we, America and me, are facing our next step and throughout our history they have been big steps.
Spiritually speaking and a sure sign of our next step as Americans our illusions and myths are being shattered right before our eyes. “It ain’t what ya don’t know that hurts ya. What really puts a hurtin’ on ya is what ya knows for sure, that just ain’t so.” — Uncle Remus
Thanks for the insightful analysis and sound advice from you and your team. Helping me learn what I know for sure that just ain’t so.
I can’t believe this is happening and most people are clueless. I’m afraid we’re in for some very hard times. Surely there are a few countries left to invest in.
Out of the current administration-congressional fiscal strategy smoke, this is what I see. Funnel lots of funny munny into certain sectors so’s the “favored” (read politically important) investors (who have been tipped off as to where the funny munny will be funneled) can play the daily game of “Hype the stock, it goes up. Sell the stock, make bucks and put into Treasury Bills or other safe havens.” Keep the yo-yo game going and call it “recovery” because the “favored” are smiling and the media captures the smiles. Therefore, elected offices remain secure. Comforting.
gold, silver and cash. Until the financial situation stabilizes.
ron
We may well have lost the country. After years of dumming down our youth, promoting a nihlistic, self-absorbed culture that favors appearance over substance, perversion over value, and continuous revisionist theory, America now stands poised for the most tragic collapse in modern history. Hopefuly, I will be proven wrong….
You are 110% right on debt when you say,”But Washington’s debt bubble makes GM’s pale by comparison–and it’s inflating the size of that bubble at the staggering rate of $3.8 billion per day.” And–”Is America Next?” In my opinion, yes, if they don’t tax on ability to pay, concerning the federal income tax, like President Franklin Roosevelt did in World War II. What is stopping President Obama in doing so, is the POWERFUL LOBBYISTS in Washington, such as HEDGE FUND DEALERS, who are creating all those TOXIC DERIVATIVES. Nobody, including banks, want REGULATIONS and now General Motors, which they call “Government Motors” aren’t even listed on the New York Stock Exchange along with Citibank. So what that tells me is that the government ought to NATIONALIZE Citibank as well. We have no one auditing anyones books, no regulations. We should REINSTATE the GLASS-STEAGALL ACT. We have to have a standard gauge mark to go by, like the TVA, created just before World War I. Sad to say, we’re in that bad of shape. Your article should get someone to think seriously and I hope my comment helps in the conversation. I would enjoy a comment.
Yours truly, Disgusted Middleclass Taxpayer, Public Citizen and AARP Member, LaVern Isely
Martin,
We have followed your suggestion ( that you said many times ) that we hold our money in short term T-Bills or the funds that invest only in them.
When do you think the short term interest will rise? And when should we invest in long term T-Bonds to catch on the larger interest rates. ( Should have done that in 1980 or thereabouts!)
Ken
It is not GM that will sink US economy. It is greed of the businessmen, who keep going despite all facts & indications that immediate reforms are needed (too many of businessmen have no economical background or education). It is Us government that will kill US economy because of it’s disastrous decisions (too many ties between the government officials and businessmen). I would call it a SABOTAGE, because they must have known for a long time what is happening. If they really don’t know, I would blame it on stupidity? They should be prosecuted and charged.
Marek.
P.S. Lack of economical background of the government officials gives a green light to speculation and corruption.
Martin,
First, thank you very much for sticking to the principles you were taught as a young man, even though it’s not always easy. You’ve become someone truly rare in today’s world; a businessman who’s honest, fair and concerned with doing things the right (and not just the expeditious) way.
As to ‘will America survive’; yes, but, we’ll be a very different America. The “good life” we’ve become so accustomed to, I believe, will soon become a faded memory from our past. And, as to whether the ‘new’ America that emerges will continue to be the country the rest of the world envies…? Well, that’s another question!
Regards,
David
I feel we may be heading towards a one world monetary system.
the working man has been getting killed in this country my story was with merck had a jopb as a tech there in 2005 then came vioxx and our pharmcy took the hit 500 jobs down too 125 this is a billion dollar company and we were walked out like it was our fault so know i work for wallmart where you cannot live on what you make ,,,,thanks kurt..
With our leadership and our debt our fate is sealed. But worse still, the future for our grandchildren is being determined by those in Washington. I believe the best course is to buy gold and essential commodities before inflation is extreme.
Thank you Martin for the red-hot focus on where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re going. I think you and your staff’s investor roadmap is full of exciting travels, and unusual sights, with lots of perilous turns and twists. However, I won’t be driving a GM vehicle on this venture, but I will be stocking up on gold and bullets, and probably driving a small electric vehicle. I think GM’s demise is not so much their product’s failure, but their inability to decide whether they’re a car company (GM) or a financial company (GMAC). “As GM goes, so goes the Country” speaks of an older, kinder, gentler time when manufacturing was America’s best attribute. These are ‘adjustment’ times when we learn how to live “post bubble”. I think these times are here to stay, rather than just a bear market before returning to the heydey of the last 10 years. The ‘return to normal’ will be when everyone realizes that this IS the new normal.
This shutdown has been predicted for over 30 years – is the brain child of “The New World Order” whose affirmed purpose is to destroy the U.S., specifically the $, exterminate some 80% of residents and emerge to dominate the residue. This criminal conspiracy “The Shadow Gov’t” has dictated results of all presidential elections since FDR – by the bluest blue blood running. Since congress gave the country the federal reserve system in 1913 – by refusing to perform their statutory obligations – the present results have been accumulating for near a century with NEVER an audit. In the bankruptcy of 9 March ‘33 – FDR converted every citizen to 2 identities as the cost of doing business with the international monetary fund as performance security to back the bankruptcy. It leaves us as chattel – pigs, cows, chickens, TURKEYS – denied rights not recently enforced but increasingly so now. There’s lots more derogatory stuff that is common knowledge like congress being more interested in being the finest politicians money can buy than performing their constitutional duties, corruption at all federal levels as in the FDA where they violated their charter in ‘83 when Reagan appointed Arthur Hull Hayes commissioner and poisoned the public with aspartame approval against the recommendation of technical staff – which resulted in delayed genocide and the A.M.A. getting fat on disease management by refusing to find the underlying causes for cures. In short – theft of the country.
Hi Martin,
I am from the land downunder (another one of those cleches you often speak about). Whilst Australians boast of good times and weathering the storm, it is obvious that we too will go downunder. Why it has taken so long is bewildering. But reading your newsletters has given me some insight into what will happen here. When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.
I have found all the hype about hyperinflation interesting – and there are good fundamental grounds for thinking this. However, when analysing the future reality of what is happening another old cleche comes to mind – most people are wrong most of the time. As an ex farmer (I had a rather large dairy farm which was sold four years ago) I believe we were severely disadvantaged during the last 20 years of boom. Whilst everyone else enjoyed increased wealth, farming became harder and harder. Whilst our costs rose, our income did not which meant we were working longer hours just to stay in business. In some ways the pressure to produce food cheaply subsidised an extravagant lifestyle because basic necessities cost proportionally less.
Are we seeing some adjustment? Personally I don’t believe that commodoties will rise that high in price as some suggest because as wages lower, there will be less money to purchase basic items. Maybe again we will visit a time when basic items cost proportionally more of our income. But I doubt that this can be considered hyperinflation, just a period of realistic adjustment.
I also read other websites and used to be in awe of Doug Noland. However, in recent times I feel his analysis, though right, is also incorrect. His latest posting stated that money was going from the core to the periphery. I think this is a more powerful observation than even he realises. Money is going to prop up organisations and individuals in the way of handouts but this money is not finding its way to the core to promote economic growth. I believe that in the end this will stiffle recovery.
Perhaps the one thing that sways me against the fear of inflation and into the camp of deflation is my own basic fundamental idea – that money is created into debt. Simply put, when I borrowed money to fund farming projects I often had LESS, NOT MORE money, particularly if the project may have been deemed necessary but was not productive enough to increase income. I fear debt will suck up mountains of money like a black hole.
Rose
Well I was hoped to leave the planet before the chickens came home to roost. What we have is blind ignorance and pay back time to address. You see what we sow we shall surly reap. We have no one to blame for this financial disaster but ourselves. We allowed our gold backed dollars to be robbed by the international banksters and we have been borrowing their worthless paper every sense. Banksters owe no loyality to our constitution nor our nation. They are globalist that we allowed to create their wealth out of thin air. Not one of them has ever put in a honest days work. They own your cars, homes, and your children. You are existing from day to day in their debt hoping to see light at the end of the tunnel. Is their a solution. Yes, look after your family first and formost, go to your local church and find like minded friends to help each other. In short band together and fight the common enemy greed and power. All is not lost but we must become tools of God as this Is His Battle and we cannot win without His intervention. Seek first the kingdom of God and al things will be added. ty.
THESE ARE DARK DAYS. OUR COUNTRY HAS FACED OTHER DARK DAYS, AND SOMEHOW THINGS GET BETTER. WE ALL HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO DO OUR PART IN MAKING THE “GOOD THINGS HAPPEN AGAIN. NEVER, EVER GIVE UP. IT IS UP TO US TO FIND A WAY. PERHAPS THE ANSWER LIES IN HEALTHCARE, OR IN INFRASTRUCTURE, OR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, OR IN YET SOME UNDISCOVERD AREA.
It appears the US is drowning in debt, including particularly the US Gvmt. And it’s unclear to me that the rest of the world is much better off, considering that their central banks have inflated currencies perhaps just as seriously. That leads me to conclude that the only refuge is things with intrinsic value like infrastructure and commodities, particularly precious metals like gold and silver; isn’t the ultimate solution to abandon fiat currencies and return to real money, gold and silver? A concern has to be what pain we go through before we realize that. One concern: China calling us on our debt by requiring pieces of US “flesh” in one form or another!
The issue is one of nationalism vs. globalisim. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush etc. are all owned by
the globalist cartel. Any politician so-aligned will go along with the globalist agenda, including the financial and military destruction of the States, the federal establishment already being under their control. To survive as political entities, the States must regionalize to separate
from the unredeemably corrupted central government. The dollar is doomed. Any fiat replacement will be no better. Those who understand the Judeao/Christian bible realize we are
living at the end of this age, and the religion of globalism rejects godly behavior. Most secular persons are unable to comprehend.
Chaloke from Bangkok
Will America survive? : Yes, but American will be there only as colonial subjects, Owner of America won’t be American anymore.
How do YOU feel ……….? : There’s no free lunch. American will have to pay, somehow, for spending heedlessly far too much of the wealth that they didn’t have for far too long.
Which investments ……….? : Simple grain markets had the habit of gaining more than 200% after having finished their corrective waves in the past :-
Corn 1971 – 1974 corrected to 109.50 and rallied to 400.00, a gain of 278%
Corn 1977 – 1980 corrected to 180.75 and rallied to 395.75, a gain of 119%
Corn 1987 – 1988 corrected to 142.00 and rallied to 359.00, a gain of 153%
Corn 1994 – 1996 corrected to 210.50 and rallied to 536.00, a gain of 155%
Corn 2005 – 2008 corrected to 185.75 and rallied to 796.00, a gain of 329%
Rough Rice 1987 – 1988 corrected to 3.90 and rallied to 12.82, a gain of 229%
Rough Rice 1993 – 1994 corrected to 4.78 and rallied to 12.80, a gain of 168%
Rough Rice 1994 – 1997 corrected to 5.97 and rallied to 12.45, a gain of 109%
Rough Rice 2002 – 2004 corrected to 3.48 and rallied to 11.50, a gain of 230%
Rough Rice 2005 – 2008 corrected to 6.21 and rallied to 24.85, a gain of 300%
Oats 1977 – 1980 corrected to 98.50 and rallied to 236.75, a gain of 140%
Oats 1986 – 1988 corrected to 95.00 and rallied to 393.00, a gain of 314%
Oats 1994 – 1996 corrected to 106.00 and rallied to 296.00, a gain of 179%
Oats 2000 – 2002 corrected to 93.50 and rallied to 248.00, a gain of 165%
Oats 2004 – 2008 corrected to 122.00 and rallied to 486.00, a gain of 298%
Wheat 1969 – 1974 corrected to 119.50 and rallied to 645.00, a gain of 440%
Wheat 1977 – 1980 corrected to 214.25 and rallied to 544.50, a gain of 154%
Wheat 1990 – 1992 corrected to 238.00 and rallied to 463.25, a gain of 95%
Wheat 1993 – 1996 corrected to 277.00 and rallied to 717.00, a gain of 159%
Wheat 2004 – 2008 corrected to 282.50 and rallied to 1349.50, a gain of 378%
Soybean 1969 – 1973 corrected to 236.12 and rallied to 1290.00, a gain of 446%
Soybean 1975 – 1977 corrected to 439.50 and rallied to 1076.50, a gain of 145%
Soybean 1986 – 1988 corrected to 467.50 and rallied to 1099.50, a gain of 135%
Soybean 2002 – 2004 corrected to 415.50 and rallied to 1064.00, a gain of 156%
Soybean 2005 – 2008 corrected to 498.50 and rallied to 1635.50, a gain of 228%
Corn averages 207%, Rough Rice 207%, Oats 219%, Wheat 245% and Soybean 222%. We are at the end of the A-B-C correction for Grain markets and there is no reason to not to anticipate 200% plus advance for the next few years. With 1:10 leverage, that will be 2,000% plus and even at the double ETF, then gain could be over 400%. I recommend a look at Commodities market such as Grain and Oilseeds, including Soft, Precious metals and Energy and don’t forget to hedge the value of the sinking US dollar with a few currencies, e.g., AD, BP, CD, EC, JY and SF.
Did you see the article in the Russian paper Pravda?? They sure think we are headed toward irreversible socialism. I am retired and sitting on my money, mostly in fixed income CMO’s and cash..a little in stocks and bonds. I pray ever day for America too wake up, but I am afraid it is too late. Too many votes have already been bought and paid for by the Democrat Party.
I appreciate your advice, Martin. I have a lot of confidence in your cautions. I don’t have a lot of money and being 76-years-old, it’s difficult plunking down cash on some of the speculative ETFs. I own TBT and GLD and have been selling Calls against the positions, and will continue to do so until I’m called out. I’ve also sold some out-of-the-money Puts to generate a little income (at a price I don’t mind if they are exercised).
I would have purchased GROW also if I would have had the symbol but it opened above $7 so would have missed it anyway.
Having said all that, with the public’s bull frame of mind, when do I enter the short ETFs?
Thank you,
John
Well… I have been reading your stuff for about a 18 months now. Frankly, the doom and gloom gets me down, but as a practical matter you guys have been right on the money — i mean real cash money — time after time (I checked out some of your old stuff after I signed up to get your current views. The problem I have investing overseas is that if we, the US, folds, then nothing at all will be safe, and my money, will literally go up in smoke in some small plant in malaysia, or worse ny investment will simply be ignored by a company and/or government who realizes that it does not have to honor my investment (see: Russia). I call this the last theft of wealth. Beginning with allowing non-bankers to bank and banks to play all kinds of interesting games… add cheap money that allowed everyone to buy a house; yeah it jump=started the economy but caused inflated, no super-inflated homes prices, this lead to more borrowing, more wheeling and dealing (0 money down, 125% equity leveraging) and then… somebody blinked. I blinked in mid-2006 when a 70 yr old house that sold for $102,900 in ‘02 was foreclosed — I learned it had been thereafter appraised at $201,000 and the owner borrowed 161 against it!!! I bought it for 125K and it is now worth about 110K! Cheap money, no credit checks is bad capitalism. The people who did this should not have been rescued. Debt is something you should not want to have individually, and bad debt is not something you never want to be holding. It is really sad in a way, I really wanted a ‘10 Camaro. But I will not buy it from the Union that destroyed and replaced GM. David
Dear Sirs:
My wife and I have just retired. We do not have enough assets to justify the contrarian program you offer.
We have about $50,000 in Roth IRA’s that is invested in short term Treasuries following your guidance.
We do not need to draw from this amount and are thinking of investing it in gold ETFs. Is this a good plan over the next 5 years or so? How much should we invest?
Is this economy going to turn around or remain nearly stagnant for a long period of time?
With Much Appreciation for your counsel.
James Bullock
Dr. Weiss, thank you for your knowledge and ability to communicate clearly to all of us and keep us informed about what is happening as far as money is concerned. Their is great sadness when a giant like GM goes under, as it has. This is unfortunate. Worse I fear for America unless some of the folks who are out for one thing, what the government can do for them wake up and realize the grave mistake they have made in electing the present administration who is far to inexperienced and far to radical to worry about the Constitution and America’s well being. They are all out for their own agends. It is one thing to say that you are an American and another to actually live it and reflect it to the world. Unfortunately some giants like GM permitted the unions and the selfishness and greed of those who are involved in the unions to pressure them into this state of non-existence in which they are soon to fall into. There was just too much pressure on the banks and mortgage houses to give out mortgages to those who couldn’t even pay rent at a reasonable market rate. The banks, not being staunch in their positions, caved in to the pressure.
It is time now for all Americans to realize what they have willed some unknowingly and some through greed and selfishness and the utopia which was presented to them. If they wake up. Then we will survive even though we will not be the country we once were. When you don’t have the cash readily available you don’t just go to the printing presses.
Fortunately for us we did not heavily invest in stocks and commodities so we did not lose much. But interest rates, taxes and other extreme costs given to us to bear are not easy to handle either. But through sensible spending and saving one can survive that too and especially if one has great hope and faith in the Lord.
Thank you for all that you do for us and for your generosity in sharing vital information.
IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE GOP IS ABLE TO TAKE THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS, IF THEY DON^T IT LOOKS REAL BLEAK. GOLD AND SILVER MIGHT BE THE ONLY INVESTMENT OVER THE LONG TERM. OBAMA IS A RADICAL SOCIALIST BENT ON RESHAPING AMERICA AND IF HE IS SUCCESSFUL WE WILL HAVE A SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION THAT WILL MAKE 29 LOOK LIKE A SUNDAY SCHOOL PICNIC. THE ONLY WAY TO CORRECT THIS MASSIVE SPENDING IS TO CUT GOVERNMENT TO THE BONE AND THEN IT WILL TAKE YEARS. I CAN SEE A LOT OF PAIN COMING FOR MY COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WISDOM WILL PREVAIL. W.W.
I do believe the United States will in in a matter of a short time be bankrupt and or a Socialist country inder the auspices of obama.
When asked about oil stocks some weeks ago, Claus felt it was premature to hop on board that sector. As I recall he said when the overall market takes a dive, oil is just as vulnerable. Regrettably I took his advice, as we have seen an appreciable surge in this sector the past month. U.S.Oil for example went from its low of $22 to $38 in just over a month. When you consider it was at $120 just a year ago, the upside potential vs the downside is no contest. When you combine that huge gain with the contrasting drop in his inverse ETF’s, that is a very substantial amount to make up.
Perhaps one should also hedge against a precipitious gain!
Dear Martin,
I like the information you send me. It is very difficult to understand and predict what is going on and what will follow. So many variables, difficult to understand and formulate your expectations. There are so many things however that you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand. If you look what our leaders were doing the past 25-30 years,I question if there is anybody who is surprised where we are today and why? It is amazing how they treated the public! Worse than a moron. They convinced us that Wall Street and Corporate leadership, although they do not own anything, they are so special with unique capabilities, that destroyed GM at the blink of an eye. They require to be remunerated in almost mythical ways and we better behave before they turn our offer down. It is really to laugh! Where are they going to go? Is any other place in the world with so many fools? Is anywhere else where the owners go bankrupt and the CEOs controll the wealth? It is said that a specific CEO increased the size of GE and he deserves a special treatment. No question about that. But how much special and how about the ones who brought the company to where it is today! Unfortunately despite the catastrophic events, we are experiencing everyday that the culture which brought us here remains alive and well. I think we need Capitalism for Growth and Progress and Socialism for humanity. None of them can survive alone and under the circumstances we need rules to determine how each of the systems will serve the society.
Martin. I have bought your book and joined your Million Dollar Portfolio program and am ready to make the next move. I am basically completely out of stocks and bonds, with the exception of T-bills and money market funds (mostly T-bill only); I also have a few inverse ETFs. I must admit, however, that this market rally is taking an awful long time to turn around (even for a short time), which makes me hesitant to keep waiting for the inverse ETFs to come around. I am a conservative investor, like you are, but how long do I wait? …..In another area, I can’t stop thinking about how the market suddenly turned around in March/April with no apparent good reason. My belief is that the government realized that the key to the market was consumer confidence, so they allowed the banks to value their “toxic” assets wherever they wanted, which of course made the financial institutions look good, which made the stock market go up, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised, also, if bad news (which might hurt the market) is being hidden from us. Conceivably, those toxic assets could be held on the books for 10 years, after which they would have grown into non-toxic assets; during that time the market would never go down. God bless. Dick
I have no sympathy for loss of GM: Management; Blue collar; or otherwise.
Management granted unto themself millions of dollars a year in salary, bonus, stock options,
and other perks. Concurrently they directed the production of inferior quality vehicles,
operated with an excessively bloated cost structure, underestimated their competition, and
failed to plan for a changing global market.
UAW Management is a “top heavy fat cow” bestowing unto themself salary and perks almost
as bad as GM Management. Their mantra was, and remains, “more more more” for the UAW, and their membership. They failed to recognize their mantra placed GM in a non-competitive cost structure.
UAW Blue Collar Membership rode a gravy train of salary and benefits unlike their global competition. They failed to recognize it is not 1950, the world has awakened and others are willing to produce superior product at lower cost.
The average UAW factory “salary and benefits package’ estimated at $70,000usd, while
Japanese average $40,000usd, and Chinese less than $20,000usd.
GM Management, UAW Management, and Membership are responsible. UAW and their Membership for unrealistic demands, and GM Management for submitting to those demands.
Even now a terminated GM/ UAW Member will receive 70% of salary first year, and 50% the second year!!! Who are they to deserve such lavish consideration when the “average american”
worker is lucky to receive TWO WEEKS SALARY when terminated!!!
I love America and cherish our sacred Constitution and Bill of Rights, but I also recognize
the best days for America are long over. We are headed for “second- class” status in a global
economy because the overwhelmiing majority of Americans fail to recognize the world has changed. Money and Capital knows no national boundary– it moves freely, and with it so moves technology, factories, and jobs!!
PLEASE America– Wake Up!!
Thank you,
Charlie B.
Virginia
It is a dark day when one man thinks he has all the answers to our problem. Why can we not have a group of dedicated authorties form a think tank, Allow them to decide what is the problem? What are the solutions? With many hours of imput what are the best solutions. Not allow political party “MAJORTY” to ram their political advantage to over ride agood solution. Make sure all in the group realize it has to be a win,win solution. If we allow our “SINKING SHIP” to sink we all will lose. America has allways rose to a difficult challeng. I know there is a GOD and i firmily believe he will be there for us if we humbly bow and seek his”HELP” I am not a religius nut ,but in my 80+ years God has been with me when almost hope was gone.
Ar the short term tresury money markets still safe?
What are they
What banks are o.k. for making cks.
Whew!! So many, expecting things to become so bad. Doesn’t anyone have faith that we will survive? Of course, we know there are going to be difficult times until the country gets back on track; but we will in time. Listen to good advice, prepare for the hard times to come and then just ride it out.
As a sailor, I many times learned of bad weather ahead and after hunkering down and preparing for the storm; all we could do was ride it out. sometimes it was scary and we often wondered if the ship would carry us throguh the storm. But it always did and when the wind stopped, the seas calmed and the sun once again shone through, we knew that we had survived once a again.
Have faith. Prepare for some rough seas ahead. Have confidence that we can survive.
You’ll have to excuse my ignorance as I have only been following you since April 09. Every day I read how bad the economy is however the share price keeps rising. Today the S&P went over its moving day 200.
Since I have been following your advice (3 months), the markets have rallied. How come?
It would seem that we are building up to a recession that could put the noose on our neck for years to come. I am scared for our Country.
I currently have a retirement account with a Credit Union I recently had taken a withdrawal and encured an early withdrawal fee….sometimes taking your money out of an account and paying an early withdrawal fee seems to be a safer way to ride rather than losing most of or all of your money…And to those who lost so much in the stock market & by other means my heart goes out to U….don’t give up God will answer and promises to return all that was taken & or stolen from u….
We need to get organized, and pull ourselves up. We need to stop blaming the government, and realize that we elected these people, so we are also to be blamed.
Elect people who start thinking what is best for America, and stop policing the world.
Elect people who will work for the people who elected them, and not just finding a career job for themselves, as well as their family and friends. We need to invest in production, and stop erecting strip malls down every major street in America. I hate strip malls!
For the short Dr. Weiss, I feel commodities as well as precious metals are best, what are your thoughts? Thank you and God Bless America!
1932 versus 2009
DOLLAR BACKED BY GOLD / ZERO GOLD BACKING- FIAT CURRENCY
US IS A CREDITOR POWERHOUSE/ US IS THE WORLDS LARGEST DEBTOR NATION
AMERICAN POWER ON THE RISE/AMERICAN POWER IN DECLINE
A COHESIVE-TOUGH SOCIETY/ A FRAGMENTED- POLARIZED SOCIETY
SOCIAL SECURITY BEGINNING/ THE NEAR END OF SOCIAL SECURITY
PAY AS YOU GO MENTALITY/ CAN’T KEEP UP THE BILLS WITHOUT CREDIT CARDS
OIL SUPPLY EXPANDING/ ON THE CUSP OF WORLD OIL SUPPLY DECLINE
US BASED OIL SUPPLY EXPANSION/ US BASED OIL SUPPLY COLLAPSE
LIVING WAGE COMMON PLACE/ LIVING WAGE ON THE DECLINE
Please add some more that I left out.
Hello Martin & Associates,
I am baffled by the rising stock market vs rising government debt. To me, it should be “falling stock market vs rising debt.
The MBA’s say large government spending is the only way to turn the economy around. How would you guys turn it around?
Hi to America from a Canadian:
America is fighting the wrong battles. The U.S. Dollar will go to hyperinflation
and become almost worthless. The markets will crash, unemployment will rise substantially causing riots and starvation.
I have done very well this past year. My portfolio is up over 500%and I am well into the 6 digits. But I get down on my knees every day and beg God for forgiveness
for all of my sins.
America has forgotten their God and He is allowing all your enemies to triumph
over you.
I long for the day when God will again be able to bless America.
sincerely,
Joe
Because of yours and others advise, over the past several months, I made out very well. This week I sold the stocks I bought at the bottom of the market last year. I made over 150% on them, and I bought PUTs in SPY. I also bought gold and silver last fall when I sold most of my PUTs at the bottom of the market and so far have made +20% on the precious metal. I made over 100% last year on my PUTS. I think PUTs will be a good investment for the next 4 to 6 months then I’ll have to look to see if its time to go back to stocks again or just go with gold, silver and real state in my Utah home state. I also have a one year supply of emergency food and other essential stuff for my family and I am debt free.
In Nov of 2007 I moved my wife’s retirement account to bonds and then moved it back last fall to mutual funds. She has made 30% on her account, where most of her co-workers at the hospital have had major losses. I plan to liquidate her retirement account, pay the taxes, (she’s over 65 now) and do real state, gold and silver with the money. I think her retirement fund will be a big loser if she stays in it any longer. Utah real state always does well when the economy gets bad because many members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints move here in bad times. Some of the farm land in central Utah has doubled in price in the past year or so.
I agree with Martin accross the board–I am heavily into gold and oil plus utility stocks which are doing well but protected with limits 10 to 15 % under current price. Concerned about a large sum in a single pay life policy–may cash out part to move into fed. notes. Any thoughts? Reading your “Ultimate” book with interest.
I am baffled by a rising stock market vs rising government debt. It seems that with rising debt, the stock market should be going down.
The MBA guru’s in Washington and elsewhere feel that the only way out of a recession is to spend. How would you folks reverse the recession?
Fred
The fact that has always been most interesting to me is the lack of concern by the general public in terms of what the US government is doing to the future. When you create the debt load they have over the past several years, in combinaltion with what seems to be an absolute denial of the facts in terms of what has happened in the banking industry, derivatives / bailouts etc. What is going to take to make the numbers obvious to the common taxpayer in terms of what it is doing to their future…..
Dr. Weiss – Which is more likely to occur: (1) hyperinflation a la the 1920’s Weimar Republic in Germany or (2) 12% + annual inflation a la the Carter-Volcker years of 1978 to 1980 that led to the “Reagan Recession” of 1981 through 1983 that threw 2 million (Republican estimate) to 5 million (Democrat est.) Rustbelt blue-collar high-school educated assembly line workers out of their jobs. It is abundantly clear that inflation will occur, and these oil prices rising again will only worsen it, but I would appreciate your outlook on the level of inflation we may experience. I am very interested in when you think inflation will get so high that I will have a chance to get out of 3-mo. T-Bills and buy very high-yield US Treasury long bonds paying much higher interest rates.
Thanks very much for considering my query.
My wife and I are both employed in the technology sector. We managed to scrap and save into the low six figures over the years. The house is mostly paid for; no small effort in California.
I’ve read several books on investing including your depression survival guide. The later convinced me to subscribe to the Smart Money Newsletter. We have dabbled in the stock market with some wins, some losses, a modest gain overall. Nine months ago I purchased gold bullion for the first time, believing that inflation would be ahead.
I received a sizeable inheritance this year which I originally intended to invest. Instead I deposited the money in multiple “A” banks staying within the FDIC limits. Currently, there is NO reasoned predictability as to what tomorrow may bring economically or politically.
America and its people are great, but its power brokers have shifted from building upon the efforts of the previous generation to just passing debt on to the next. Until this behavior differs, I do not see a reason to risk my money with Wall Street.
Thank God though my wife and I still have our jobs.
P.S. For those of you that recommend storing enough food for one year, its seed and fertilizer you’ll need instead.
Its hard to believe that the United States itself could go bankrupt. I`ve been part of the contrarian program to try to avoid loosing a lot of momey and hopefully making some money. I invested $10,000 in a fidelity account and buying the suggested investments but it cost $19.95 as a commission for each buy which is a large percentage of the buy. There have been 8 buys now at $19.95 each so alot is going for commission. Its going to take a lot just to make up the commission so any advice yoou have will be appreciated. Thanks! Ray Deckert.
In the late 1970’s I went to visit a client at one of their major plants in the Chicagoland area. It was a enormous facility that covered almost two city block. As we entered the manufacturing level which was subterrian, I was schocked beyond dismay as I witnessed any entire plant in idleness. No one machine was running and the inventory level of finished goods was wall to wall. When I asked my host for an explaination, his reply was,” we don’t have orders but things will start up again very soon because this is International Harvester and it is just to big to fail”.
From that day forward the experience changed the way I view the entire business structure. By the mid 1980’s I made several remarks to friends and family that GM will more than likely be one of the next failures based upon the same fundamentals of over extentsion and mismanagement of debt.
IH never saw Komatzu coming and apparently, GM never was either Honda or Toyota coming either. In both cases the need of the customer was abandon!
Martin, you are prone to a level of hysterics that reduces your credibility. When you say things like “court approval to begin liquidating its assets” you sound ignorant of the differences between Chapter 7 & Chapter 11 bankruptcy. If you are not ignorant, then it appears that you are purposefully misleading others who might be ignorant of the differences. Either way, it’s bad for your credibility. The date for enrollment in your “Million Dollar Portfolio” has passed. Give it a rest.
MW..I started with 600 in 1Q08 and was down to 350 by 1Q09.
I put 100 in to American Equity Retirement Gold. 12% Bonus Premium up front and a “Guaranteed” 8% per year for 15 years. Isn’t this Annuity a safe place to put
your money once you leave “Las Vegas”? My AE 100 is now 112 and will finish the year at 120. What am I missing?…Bill
Investors of all walks of life will folk to precious metals as the US revisits the days of France’s Joh Law. Sorry to be so gloomy, but we are seeing the change of the entire US paradigm.
Being retired and debt free, a rise in interest rates will not affect me, except it will help my bottom line and 1% does not cover expenses. I am waiting for interest rates to rise.
Hopefully Gold and short ETF’s will come thru
Dear Martin:
I have been reading your information about buying stocks at low prices and then selling when the market is stable and making a profit. Warren Buffett feels that the market will always come back and he invested in GE stock that was half price in September. He looks for companies that are well managed and buys them at a 40% savings. This is good thinking by both of you, but my concern with both of your ideas is that we have a government that prints money like it is going out of style. This new money has no financial backing to support it worth. How can we continue to try new ways to save our investments when even if we do the dollar will be worthless. Buying gold, silver, and diamonds makes more sense because you have a precious commodity. The only thing wrong with this plan is who will buy these precious items when we have a world wide financial crisis and famine. Can we eat those precious commodities?
What are the chances of Obama halting all trading in gold and silver? The government did it already in the 30’s and if they do nothing the price of precious metals is going to help create an inflationary environment. Can they shut down the market? Perhaps options on precious metals could be a payoff to politicians who support Obama’s programs. It’s a consideration in investing in precious metals. Perhaps it can all be confiscated.
OUR ONLY CHANCE TO SURVIVE IS IF THE CURRENT CROP OF WASHINGTONIANS DO NOT. THIS INCLUDES ALL THREE MAJOR ENTITIES; EXECUTIVE, LEGISLATIVE AND JUDICIAL. THESE RATS HAVE SOLD US OUT AND THEY SHOULD BE STRUNG UP FOR THEIR TREASON. IF THIS IS TOO HARSH FOR YOU, TOO BAD. JUST WAIT AND SEE. WE HAVEN’T SEEN THE END OF THIS BETRAYAL, IT WILL GET WORSE.
I AM A PROUD VETERAN WHO SERVED WITH DEDICATION MANY YEARS AGO. I CAN ONLY TAKE SOLACE WITH TODAYS CONDITIONS IN THAT AT MY AGE I HOPE NOT TO STILL BE ALIVE WHEN OUR TOTAL DESTRUCTION AS A FREE AND WONDERFUL SOCIETY FINALLY CRUMBLES UNDER THE “NEW WORLD ORDER”.
I think you are too deep in the BEAR mode. You are the only Bear out there.
Good advisor/investor should make money in both market.
That’s a real contrarian.
All three index are all up over 40% now.
You did not catch it – all day long you have been dooming.
Lots of stocks have doubled and even trippled.
ETF — FAS — have increased 6 olds (over $12 from under $2 in March.
Did you catch any – those 3x bulls.
When gold is at low $700, what did you say?
how about now —————–already back to high $900.
talking is one thing, investing is another.
Did GM crash down the market ——– Not a single bit.
You have been calling the market down Virtually Every week since March,
Where is it now?
Do you think we can follow you?
WE ARE WITNESSING THE GREATEST DISTRUCTION OF A FUNCTIONING ECONOMIC SYSTEM SINCE MANKIND BEGAN BARTERING FOR GOODS AND SERVICES. THIS ECONOMIC DEVISTATION CANNOT BE CORRECTED BY THE METHODS BEING USED BY THE INDIVIDUALS THAT CREATED THE PROBLEMS. ALL OF THE CORPORATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS THAT CREATED THIS ECONOMIC PROBLEM SHOULD BE PROSECUTED FOR THEIR CRIMES NOT BAILED OUT. UNTIL THE PERPETRATORS OF THESE CRIMES ARE PROSECUTED AND CONVICTED THERE WILL BE NO TRUST OF ANYONE.
I’m in a similar position as the above named “Bullocks” I Know the country is in a terrible predicument and I need to protect the little I have. I am sure you are worth the price, unfortunately that is way more than I could afford. I did buy your book and agree with all you said and have tried to implement the solutions you’ve set forth. Each time you have a webcast, I ‘m glued to it hoping to find some further updates which certainly are suggested. Problem is, where are we in the progress where we would apply the solutions? Mostly, the webcasts so far, have seemed to be repeats of the book which does nothing to forward my thinking. I Am very confused!!!–and hope that I don’t lose it all.
As per Raymond’s comments, I thought about getting involved in the Contrarian program on a modest basis myself, but was concerned in advance about the volume in trade fees eating up profits, so I did not go ahead. What minimum investment is recommended for this program? Will Weiss open this Portfolio at some point for other investors?
What is the percentage of debt the US gov./GNP today expressed as a ratio compared to the Wiemar Republic debt /GNP of germany after WW1. I have heard Zimbabway has a similar issue. I have heard some experts say the US is incredibly wealthy and can take this hit.
Compliments to you and your team. I think of you as Noah and the Ark.
Paul Davis
Hi,
As a non American but keen historian I have been watching the tragedy of the US dream unfold for some time. It is a reflection of the other great civilizations – great endeavour eventually destroyed by uncontrolled greed and excess on the part of many, abuse of power and the very systems put in place to protect the nation, a general willingness to turn a blind eye to lies and deception, and finally, a shameful and possibly deliberate erosion of the education system (Maths 0 vs MTV 1).
Time for Americans to re-read some of the writings of the founding fathers. They sounded all the warning bells back in 1776.
BACK WHEN THE CRISIS BECAME A FULL BLOWN EMERGENCY, I BOUGHT THE CALL FOR THE BAILOUTS…..HOWEVER AS THE DIRECTION OF THIS GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE BEGINS TO USHER IN DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES…..SHOULDN’T WE THE PUBLIC EXPECT AN OFFICIAL REPORT OF SOME TYPE AS TO THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THEIR PLAN….WHERE’S THE GAO, WHO IS RESPONSABLE FOR GUAGING THE EFFECTIVENESS
This is devistating. Our children and granchildren will not live long enough to pay this debt.
It is time to return to some old fashioned values that you have to earn. The me too generation will learn that the hard way since everyone feels they are entitiled to the government freebies. There is no free lunch and never will be.
The old axion remains true–whoever does not learn from history is doomed to repeat it. Unfortunately we are at this stage neither a Republic nor a Democracy and to add insult to injury, we are much nearer a fascist state than a market economy.
I blame the American people for the current mess. The so-called intelliencia became sidetracked between greed and trying to solve world hunger, the environment and becoming the world’s policeman. At the far end of the spectrum, the less well educated and semi-prosperous, ie. middle class focused on transforming into a ” ME” society with both hands extended for the transfer of unearned weallth! Unfortlunately. even if we can dig our way out of his mess, oaur children can curse us and deservedly so, for destroying Shangri-La.
I am extremely pessimistic. I envision a depression similar to the 1930’s or worse. I’m 75 and trying hard to reach 80 to see how this all works out.
Martin,
Thanks for the opportunity to vent. Our country is in significant trouble. It is clear that we do not have a free market economy. Our economy is controlled and manipulated by the Central Bank (Federal Reserve), Government and Banking elitists. I am very surprised that there hasn’t been more public outrage over this madness. The current trend is to continue to print money and inflate our way out this mess. Perhaps a potential stop gap might be to encourage our congress to support HR 1207 the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009. This bill which is currently being considered in congress, will force the Federal Reserve to open its books for public audit. If America can see where all this money is going we might have a chance at creating an appropriate level of public outrage that could drive necessary and much needed change.
That said, we will survive.
Martin, I have 70% of my assets in a Life company, in an annuity (American
Family Mutual) that you have rated A plus . I receive a 4 to
4.5 % tax defferred rate of return. I have 5% of my net worth in
gold and am planning on increasing that % to 50% over the next
3 years. Perhaps around 2012, at the bottom I may then begin
to purchase stocks at incredible bargains, if our currency survives.
I too see our country as spiritually bankrupt. We need to repent
and seek His face. Thank you for your good work!
My wife and I have been trying to avoid being a burden to our kids, or anyone. My wife is 75, still teaching public school. I am 82, a real estate investor and manage our own properties. Last June 2008 we planned to retire in 2010. We could have just barely made it, but then, Oct. 2008 hit and we’ve lost 40-50% of our holdings. The people re-sponsible for the fiasco are still in their vaulted positions. In the time we have left there is no hope for recovery. So, we continue to work until our health stops us. And then, our kids get nothing and we are wards of the state. What a legacy for a couple of hard-working, law-abiding, American citizens!!…AMERICA, WAKE UP!!!
Martin,
The capital markets are frozen and so are my business and my income. I am an independent sales representative selling computer generated imagery services to architects and real estate developers. Developers buy our services – sometimes directly and sometimes through their architect – in order to accelerate the sales process after the architect has completed their work. We bring the development to life with 3D images and animations, and this imagery is used in sales brochures, on websites, in sales offices and in other ways to promote the properties.
With capital markets frozen, there is no development occurring, and the architects have nothing to create. Therefore, I have nothing to sell. Every month, when I send out a global email to my customer base, I get more an more undeliverable emails back. Those are people who are no longer employed at these firms. Many of these firms have laid off up to half of their employees. I’ve never seen anything like it in my lifetime, and I’m sixty-one years old.
When do you think we will see some “thawing” of the frozen capital markets?
Thanks,
Ron Garland
Bozeman, Montana
hello martin we are over here in australia havent invested in the contararian system yet coz of information not enough here available
We have physical gold basically an inverted ETF we buy a kilo when it drops in aus$ against greenback to lower our average if neccessary if $aus goes up against greenback above sell price of agent then we sell a small amount to cover any annual interest cost
We found that our stock exchange for spot and buy and sell rates are open 10am to 4 pm monday to friday and the profittaking manipukation by reserves genearlly is a 2 hour window between 10 and 4 mon to fri so we monitor the net for that window
question is the US $ gold price is better most times than AUS $ fluctuations how can we sell our physical gold in US $ can you advise us pleez
However we have studied history since before the great depression of 1929 and found that gold in fact did not budge during any cycles of recession or depression as it ws always held at a price by governments until seventies then reserve banks (secret societes who have secret meetings) are insider trading and buying and selling gold to manipulate currencies
Dear Martin
Bigger than the economic decline is the lack of leadership in Washington D.C. People are losing faith in our leaders. The governments solution is spend spend spend. What about a 20% across board cuts in every program without exception. Lets sent a message to the world that American can tighten its belts and I believe the American people would welcome it starting with congressional pay and perks. Balance the Federal Budget as quickly as possible and have everyone in America participate in doing what is right for the country. “War on Government Spending” for the sake of the country. We need a balance budget amendment at the federal level. Also, assist the umemployed by using matching grants to help them start new business. If someone wants to start a new business have them tab into their IRA/401K funds for lets say $10,000 without penalty and have the government match it through the small business administration subject to approval of a strong business plan. There is so much that we could do.
i beleve mr. obama is to close to the persons out to destoey america. it apears the democratic party will do nothing to stop him .i call toremovehim from office you have my vote
What is happening to the United States at this time is anyone’s guess. What ever it is I guess we will find out soon enough. What ever it is both the Bushs and both the Clintons have supported Obama and this OPEC take over from the Saudis. I’m sure soon to be recognized as the Islamic Empire.
It was very obvious what needed to be done. Instead of rational political and economic leadership we have seen the expansion of the Federal Government. The hostile take over of U.S. Corporations by the Federal Government. This Federal Government killed the goose that laid the golden egg and is now wipping out the entire corporate economy and small business base. Both political parties just keep acting alike to the point that a two party political system is a thing of the past. We the people have not seen a rational political move out of Washington for so long now that I’m sure extreme levels of apathy among the entire nation will be our next biggest enemy. If I am wrong and Obama is some kind of secret genius then we are going to be in for the supprise of our lives. The way I see it, Obama is just another Saudi flunky just like the Bushs and the Clintons. The American people are going to be so disappointed to learn that instead of socialism they are going to get Shariah law and economics. It is all pretty much fascism.
good
This is the United States of America. We will come back. I have no idea how but I pray that we get off our collective rear ends and start electing people that think the way we do and call them out when they don’t follow through!
Martin, I believe the market is trying to sucker us into thinking all is well so we put our money back in the stock market and they (Wall Street) can sell and get their money out. This will be another bubble to burst.
At 73 I bought my first Gold on May 6th. It was very scary….but not really all that hard to do. It gives me some comfort to know I can see it and it won’t end up like our dollar could…worthless. What to do with the paper money is the dilema.
If you haven’t read the book,”None Dare Call It Conspiracy” by Gary Allen and Larry Abraham written in the 70’s .I would advise you to check it out and give it a read. Then Google….Who owns the Federal Reserve…..You will find out we have been had!
I agree with an individual – that is stop blaming government for everything. We as US citizens need to elect not only right folks for White House but for local and state governments. In additon, we need to raise teaching standards in the schools so that our next generation is smarter than us and outside world, and can rebuilt America. If we contiue to elect wrong folks, we will be eventually sold to other countries, not physical slavery but monetary salvery.
As far as stocks, I still believe some of the big names AIG , Citibank will survive. NEW GM, I still have doubts. What are they going to do different than what they have done over last 20+ years. Lets us face, GM products are good but compared to NISAN and HONDAs etc, they are not so good. Find cause for that first and fix that. Bring back manufacturing back in US. Also, UNIONS need to step back a bit so that jobs do not go oversees.
Regards
Mr. Weiss; you’re a prophetic “voice crying in the wilderness…” I trust your comments, and look for what you have to say, more than ever. Thank you.
BD
Anyone who did his/her homework would/should/could have seen this coming. We’ve been gathering statisics since the 1700’s. Remember the journalist who asked the simple question,”How does Enron make its money?” Well its the same answer now: by lying, cheating, and stealing. Its called criminal fraud, folks. I remember one time I went to a storage auction and people were bidding ridiculous amounts of money on sealed boxes. I sure gave them what they wanted next time around, and back in those days a thousand bucks profit was a nice piece of change.
Dear Martin:
You and your team are doing an outstanding job, with respect to all aspects of the current market place! For many years, I wrote two of the top stock newsletters in the country (both eventually sold to Charlie Allmon of Growth Stock Outlook fame), and now — your newsletter is the only one I follow!
As to your question/request — it is my opinion that over the next few years — it will be the junior precious metals stocks that will shine, as gold, silver, etc. skyrocket, and the dollar collapses! Their time as finally “come!” You should sprinkle your recommendations with such companies as Keegan Resources (KGN), Premier Gold (PG.TO), Northern Freegold (NFR.V) and ATW Gold (ATW.V) — which are making major gold discoveries in safe countries; building signifcant resource bases (millions of ounces); are close to becoming producers; and are well “cashed-up” for the future.
Anyone who likes gold can recommend Goldcorp (GG) — but the real leverage and big money will be made in the highly successful junior explorers, such as those mentioned above! If you review what they are doing, I think you will be impressed!
Best Regards,
Mike Funke
America IS bankrupt-you are correct! The question is “what can we do?” And the answer of course is “nothing”-nothing that is untill the government’s checks bounce or are worthless! At that time -or before-we will see rioting in the streets and worse. The only trump card the government has is “the guns”-we are the one and only world power. That is why the Obama and his administration hate the 2nd amendment (actually they hate the whole bill of rights AND the constitution) and are doing everything in their power to take away any and all power from the people. Of course they are doing this under the guise of “the good of the MAJORITY of people.
They hate ALL cash money-especially gold-because it is hard for them to follow it.
So…you get the picture.
Thank you
Jerry Jones
susan 06.02.09 at 2:44 PM
I dont even have to read the entire article to respond. Let me put this statement out there, How are we going to survive if we are in debt to China so much that Hilary Clinton is offering to give them “land” to pay them back what we owe them. “BUT”, she can go and give “millions” to Gaza ( “TERRORIST”) of our money. Oh! and now the “Sheiks that bailed our big banks out, WOW! Oh! did I forget the president that on April 21, 2009 joined us to the E.U. (now if we are a independent nation, how did obama (and why?) joined us to the European Union for? and all a sudden he is bragging about he being of muslim decent, you need to wake up and see what is really going on here people! I believe you need to read their quran (muslim bible) that they so strictly live by, their “peace” definition is NOT the same as ours, go to http://www.memritv.org you want to see how they feel about America and they will soon fly their flag over our whitehouse they chant, AND IT IS NOT JUST THE RADICAL TERRORIST YOUR STUPID NEWS MEDIA TELLS YOU, ITS ALL OF THEM!!!!! THEIR QURAN SAYS “ALL” SHALL BOW TO allah AND WE ARE INFIDELS AND SHALL BE KILLED, OUR HEADS CUT OFF AND HANDS AND FEET. READ THE QURAN AND SEE FOR YOURSELVES…. who is ignorant? that should be the question. Our goverment has gotten us in some serious trouble and we the little people out here are gonna suffer and pay for all their mistakes, we are already.. Why has CDC (center disease control) placed 500,000.00 disposable casket liners (that can hold 5 – 6 bodies been delivered to a piece of land in MA huh? if you need the video just go to utube you will find it there. whats really going on here in our country and who is really running OUR COUNTRY??? We see it is ok to do wrong and wrong to do whats right? It needs to be stopped and this country is not what the fore fathers fought for it to become, thats for sure, it is sad and a shame and a disgrace. People need to take a stand and WAKE UP! AND TAKE THIS COUNTRY BACK, it starts in the home, morals, values, the innocense of our children, get the filthy, nasty looking, things out of our stores/TV/radio/billboards/ out from here. Why are we selling sex and horror? look what it has done and filtered into this country, spread like a disease….and then get it out of our schools and go stand at the court house and back one another up on these issues until it gets out of here, this is the only way our country will survive. THE ONLY WAY! no amount of money is saving it, is it? exactly?
does the NWO ring a bell to you people? New World Order, skull & bones, freemasons, illuminati, bohemian grove, jesuits, black pope, bildeburgs and ROTHCHILDS!!!! HELLO!!!!! wake up America! who has all the money “CONTROLS”
The Obama administration is the first in history to not have America’s best interest at heart. Even Jimmy Carter thought he was doing what was best best for the country – OBAMA ISN’T.
It is incomprehensible that this government would nuillify GM bond holders contract agreements – taking away their personal lawful rights – paid for with a premium -but will provide protection at all costs to terrorists imprisoned at Guantanamo. OBAMA administration actions to date demonstrate a quick and radical movement toward a facist and totalitarian state. If one disagrees because he or she still believes in his hope and change rehtoric, then analyze whether or not the change in policy toward ISRAEL, the current underfunding of the military, increasing the largest debt ever known to man, has the best interest of America at heart. We are well down the road of being incapable of protecting our children from jihad.
I am not an optimist about this OBAMA-NATION as all the rules are being re-engineered by his people to benefit a socialistic way of life. It is evil toward every man in its very inception. It seems that it is time to keep our wits about us and pray that God grant’s us the courage to do the right things – no matter the consequences.
As such, investors are not blind to the meaning of this administration’s actions and will not want to invest in any business in a country where contracts regarding the formation of capital investments are unlawfully invalidated by the government. It appears now that only the government is lawfully sanctioned to form capital for investing – ie.. GM, AIG, Banks etc… Until, the OBAMA government is cleared from office, Americans will suffer the dire consequences of a powerful socilaistic agenda to create all men equal in every way. Only those that can pay their taxes will survive for a while until their wealth is confiscated by the state to take care of the masses.
With respect to administration policy toward printing money – this will likely cause select commodities and stocks to prosper – unless manipulated by the government and many more businesses to fail resulting in an increased crime rate.
Therefore, the only smart thing to do is to follow Safe Money advise, get out of debt, reduce one’s cost of living and pray to God that you aren’t living near Sodom or Gomorrah.
David,
US Navy Retired
What are your thoughts on investing in gold and investing in the Perth Mint in particular?
The unfortunate truth is that the vast majority of Americans are just one paycheck away from being impoverished. I find myself at 60 years old in that demographic. I take full responsibility for being in that position. I will utilize all the skills taught me by the USMC 67-69 to maintain my freedom to earn and provide for me and mine. I have made and spent two considerable fortunes in a free and open economy, I can do so again. If the government, depublicans or republicrats have their way, I will not be able to do so. With that thought in mind, take note all NWO proponents, oligarchs, and world bankers. The most dangerous person in the world is one with nothing left to loose. We are a nation with nothing left to loose but our liberty. Keep or develop your ability to survive no matter what. Money alone cannot do that for you. I can walk out my front door here in Texas and walk in any direction of the compass and not fear starvation for I know how to survive. Can you, are you willing to face these tyrants down? If you aren’t willing or able, then roll up your sleeves, report to the nearest FEMA center for your mandatory vaccination, chip implant and new world order assigned job. Just pray that your job is not to come take my 2nd amendment rights. I know hundred if not thousands who will be financially destitute tomorrow without a job. They can still survive with their guns to hunt for food and defend their sovereignty. They can have my firearms, bullets and shot first. I will stand till my last breath will you, in defense of liberty? If you have money put it in hard metal and ammunition. Yes folks, it has come that far.
E Pluribus Unum? This slogan on our paper currency rings hollow when the “too big to fail” syndrome beneficially affects only a minute minority of businesses and the politically-connected potentates running said businesses.
Why anyone would choose to put any of their hard-earned money in the hands of the U.S. Treasury with the fiscal trainwreck they are so ardently pursuing is unfathomable. Suggesting that the U.S. Government will backstop our invested money when no other institution/government can or will strikes this writer as the height of unrealistic thinking. It is the one premise the estimable commentators at Weiss Research have not sufficiently defended and justified amidst the daily outrages government commits against the public they are chartered to serve.
The $500,000 share of US Government debt that EVERY American family owes is over-and-above each family’s personal debts on housing, cars and credit cards. Such a debt can never be repaid, except by devaluing the US dollar. You know it, the rest of the world knows it. It’s only a matter of time before the trickle of those exiting US dollar investments becomes an avalanche.
While Americans still think their country is “the world greatest nation” (read Larry Edelston) the rest of the world remembers that the US has brought us one global depression and looks like starting another, and is the only nation to have annihilated a civiliation population with nuclear weapons. You have bullied anyone who doesn’t agree with you, tortured prisoners of war and squandered more than your fair share of the world’s resources. I have yet to hear even an “Oops, sorry” from any American for all this. Don’t be too surprised that many in the world rejoice at seeing a bully on his knees.
[for some reason the last comment didn't seem to register, so I'll write it again]: Anyone who did his/her homework would/could/should have seen this coming. The US has been gathering all kinds of detailed statistics since the late l700’s. Remember when that journalist asked the simple question “How does Enron make its money?” Its the same thing now: by lying, cheating, and stealing. It’s called criminal fraud, folks. I remember going to a storage auction one time and people were paying ridiculous amounts of money for sealed boxes. I sure gave them what they wanted the next time around, and in those days a thousand dollars’ profit was a nice piece of change.
Thanks for sharing your insight and knowledge. My fellow conservatives keep forgetting that the Financial Bailout Bill was passed on Friday, October 3, 2008 (another Black Friday), a full month before the Presidential election, under a Republican President and our “financial derivative whizkid of Wall Street” Republican Secretary of the Treasury. And our “new” Secretary of the Treasury was not only intimately involved with that action but also was the “designated specialist” regarding the AIG Rescue. I see no hope from the Democrat party and little if any from the Republican party. It seems to me the politicians have artificially restructured our entire monetary system, and that the end result will be excessive taxation or runaway inflation or both. Combined with the loss of American jobs and the lack of any hope of returning to any significant manufacturing base, our so-called “consumer based economy” is nothing more than a classic case of a dog chasing it’s own tail.
This country has survived on the sweat and blood of ealy immigrants and then the other countries in the world through IMF, WTO, Neo-Colonialism, wars, etc.
Not only have we been ruthless with the working class and the rest of the world but now we have totally incompetent industrial and financial managers that have no long terms interest in the welfare of their own communities.
The way we are going I am afraid that this ruling class will find a way to suck citizen’s resources to pay for their incompetence.
The responsible of these crimes should be in jail or on the electric chair. However, since they also own our federal administration, arm forces, powerful financial, business barons nothing will happen to them because they are a tightly knit network.
Class warfare? You better believe.
Martin,
Where does the money trail go?
I’ve read that there were $$ 1.2 Trillion in derivitives that were betting against GM with the objective of a huge profit on the GM bancruptcy.
The only problem is that if there are huge winners then there are huge attendent losers.
I think I understand who were the losers, but tell me the names of the winners! !
I know GM would hane had to endure a Chapter 11 but this is much grerater.
Regards, Norm Ofstad
I believe we will have at least 5 times and up to 10 times increase in the standard of living world wide within the next 35 years. Almost 70% of world GNP is living expense. There is pent up want, more objective education and information access, increasing expectation and a younger median age population world wide.
That old law of economics will help us in that the debt / investment will be a declining percentage of the world GNP just as past debts were.
As I read about, study and look back on past personal experience and through contact with business persons around the world my assessment is there has never been a financial crisis like this in the past 80 years that affected the U.S. so deeply. Things are bad at the top but if you are at the bottom or the lower middle income level and / or psychological satisfaction level as the majority, about 60% of the world’s population is and about 30% of the U.S. population is most people will survive and have been trained to believe they cannot effect much change over the short term.
We have some of the best people in charge of the actual financial and psychological techniques to control and overcome this problem in the most efficient and effective way. Mistakes will be made but eventually we will make changes never possible before this crisis. The transfer payments, social security, ngo charities, family foundations have positively changed our world community for the better even in 3rd and 4th world countries.
Working harder at spending less and smarter at investing wisely in the education of the world,s youth and in our own financial investments is what we do have control over. Chance happens to us all even Warren Buffet.
What we can do in our Enlightened Self-interest is work for term limits for all of our representatives. What is done in the U.S. will be done world wide. It has been my experience that most of us find 80% of all the people we come in contact with are good people. Out of these people surely we can pick the best to represent us for one term and only one term. Think of the difference in what could be done for the common good.
I believe the world works as good as it does because of the 80% who are as good as they are rather than the very few entrenched “powers that be” at the top of the financial heap. This crisis and the world wide web’s access to real time information has proved that the system of government needs improvement. What we have is not the most efficient and effective way for our own personal security in the future. I will not quit and you will not quit. We will do this.
I personally think America is definitely in for a tremendously rude awakening concerning its monetary practices. Someone has to pay for the printing press bill–money simply cannot be generated from a lack of the same. It bothers me that policy makers cannot grasp this basic, simple economic truth. If I have a negative balance in my checkbook then good fiscal practice encourages me to not continue writing checks and utilizing my ATM card. Throwing debt at debt only makes more debt–where is the reasoning for actions taken?
I am a twenty year retired investor looking for investments that will help me supplement
my pension which is greatly diminished by inflation. I want things that will not require trading in and out of the market. Can you suggest investments that would work for me.
Dear Martin:
What will bring down America is its insularity, its refusal to recognize and come to terms with the fact that indeed there is another world out there – a world that is growing in numbers as well as in knowhow and expertise. This ‘other world’ is increasingly more sophisticated and more cunning in exploiting its advantages and preserving its resources. This we have failed to recognize and appreciate.
In the early sixties, the US produced eighty percent of the world steel. Today it produces a mere 7%. In those days, engineering and scientific conferences were populated mainly by Americans – the vast majority of the attendees were American. Today the American participation is down to a few percent. Our educational system reflects this decline. It has catered to professions that are dependent on the generation of wealth rather than to those that generate it.
Over and above all this, we have developed a policy of quick profit as opposed to long term investment. As a result our infrastructure has been neglected. Our railway system is antiquated.
But the ‘coup de grace’ is the fact that the supply of energy and commodities is declining and what is left of these lies mainly in foreign hands. The countries that are rich in commodities will not part with them cheaply for fiat money. Copper has become gold. Their price will skyrocket as countries around the world keep printing money with abandon.
He who has the gold will make the rules!
Kirk Valanis, Ph.D.
Did you get my question? I’m 87. and have investments mainly in Gov’t Motgages. Should I sell and take the loss? I have followed yournadvice in investing and thank you for the gains.
I think we are is a severe economic crisis that will change the world forever. I think this is only the tip of the iceberg and more economic woes will come to America and the world. We will never again see the prosperity that this generation has had. People think that the Gov’t will somehow come up with a miracle that will fix this, but it won’t. The Obama administration is headed in the wrong direction but it may be a sign of the times. The Bible predicts economic disaster in the end times.
I am sorry, but I don’t feel as you do that GM’s demise is the end of the economy. I too was union member, but for too long GM has not kept up with foreign car maker. Until 4 years ago, we wouldn’t have thought to buy anything but a GM product, but after searching for a new mini-van nothing Amerian made compared to the Toyota in what we got for our money. Everything that came with the Toyota was an extra on the Chevrolet mini-van. 5 years later and 103,000 miles on our Toyota Van and absolutely no problems. If unions had quit asking for big money and worked with the company, GM might have survived. GM believed what they advertised…the heart of America. A company needs to keep up dated and help the consumer…GM didn’t do that very well. I do hate seeing people out of work, but for too long they bragged about their product and the employees bragged about their salaries. Just like many other companies, someone else will have to take the slack, and other jobs will have to come along. Am I afraid of the future, yes, but not willing to help a company that needed revamping and refused to do anything about it until too late. American will survive without GM, or through it restructuring, it will do what it should have done when those of us who quit buying GM products…change their automobiles.
To the Dr. of Vent, from one who needs to: I’m mad; mad at my congressman who
failed to heed his constinuency and voted for Bushs’ Bailout. Then he got religion after
the fact & wants to stand for some sanity by voting no to the rest but it was TOO LATE. I’m mad at my neighbors & countrymen for electing a team that time after time
proves they’re not ready OR capable to lead in PRIME TIME, no matter what the area of
responsibility. I’m a VietNam era vet who can’t get the benefits promised a guy who
signed on for four years. I’m mad as hell, and can’t navigate these markets alone…no
experience here. It’s why I’m a SAFE MONEY subscriber, and glad you provide the service for those of us who don’t have the portfolio’s OR income to subsidize the best of the support you offer. Thank you, Martin Weiss, and I’ll be listening in tomorrow at
noon for the next “offer”.
Hi Martin,
I have been told that on Ben Nevis in Scotland there is a section on the hill where once you start going down, it’s too steep to get back up. I didn’t tried it.
I don’t know if you have time for reading, other than the doom and gloom, but can I recommend to you the Jihad series by Joel Rosenberg as he seems to be uncannily correct in what he writes in terms of what eventually happens. For the sad state of World Economics and particularly US of A, read the last in the series, called appropriately enough “The Last Days’ because it would seem from what is going on in the world we are probably in them. How long this period will last before it finally plays-out is entirely another matter.
God blesses me as I trust he does you,
Regards
Stewart Beveridge.
I don’t know what will happen next for sure. I do know this. The treasonous idiots that run the government are destroying this country and there is no turning back. If we make it to the fall of this year with anyone having a job left after the currency is devalued I will be really surprised!
Thank you for your blog Dr. Weiss! Your philosphy on most of this is very much my own. However, with that being said, I honestly believe that if the American public is so happy with the man they voted in, they deserve what they are getting. That being the complete loss of all of their liberties. Soon, I am afraid, the leadership they have installed is going to result in millions of people getting killed. North Korea has 1.2 million standing military ready to take over the south, and we DO NOT have to capacity to stop them. Iran is about to learn about Israel’s own abilty to defend itself and we DO NOT have the capacity to stop them.
And finally the IRS is going to learn that they cannot collect anything if the American Tax payer isn’t making a paycheck. And finally, the 435 morons in the Congress are going to have to deal with a court that over rules its legislation, something we are familiar with in California.
The good news is, there are many of us who WILL fight to the death our own government, if neccessary, to save our children. It was only a short 230 years ago we had to do it once before.
If we don’t vote to correct it soon, they will take our vote from us by Jerryrigging the voting as many oppressive leaders have in the past! These statements I am making are not that far off…just ask the investors in GM bonds how they feel about Dictatorships now!
thanks,
Tom…
I used to write letters and submit broadsides, printed by think tanks, to my congressmen. This usually generated a form letter reply that made it sound as if they cared not, what I thought. I have finally, for better or worse, given up thinking that our government leaders can cure any problem. I think that I shall sit back and try to live through the coming collapse. Maybe my coins and a couple of guns will carry me through.
We are at the mercy of our creditors. Not our goverment but private bankers who have sought from the beginning to bring about a new world order. The debt based currency we borrow is the weapon they have used to destroy our once independent Nation. If it is not clear now that we have been conquered economically, then just put your head back in the sand and wait to recieve your bio-chip. We are all slaves to the bankers, slaves to the dollar. The money you pay in your income taxes is the principle we have borrowed going back out of circulation to the hands of the bankers, otherwise known as the interest. Now with less in circulation more people cannot pay their bills. We were once a great independant product producing nation, We did’nt need anyone. Read the book THE CREATURE FROM JECKYLE ISLAND. This can help explain a lot of whats happening NOW. Martin you are dead on accurate on everything you have said and i thank you for all of your warnings last year. You helped me save what little i had saved for retirement. If i didnt get out then I would have been wiped out. I had only started in the market in about 2000. Thanks for everything and keep up the good work.
god help us because the evil people in washington will not
Keep your eye on the defense industry. I fear it is the next target for nationalization.
I have little education in financial investing as it is just in the last few years I have accumulated income. . . I would like to know if you think the dollar is going to crash. As inflation rises and the Euro gets more strength (today 1.49 to our 1 dollar) as the US debt increases, more money made and lots of wrong government deals it seems that the time is close.
In Financial Astrology they are speculating November of this year.
What do you think? And is there any foreign currency that will be safe to have? Is gold and silver safe? And, what other investments would be good for people with small savings. I live abroad in a third world country.
Drear Dr. Weiss,
A propos GM: Back in the early 50’s as I was finishing high school in San Jose, Cal., I remember learning that about one fourth of US workers were in some way involved in the mortor industry. About that time, there was a tremendous crisis between auto workers and management over robotics. The unions said that if they brought them in they would shut down all the plants. Management surrendered and along with many other factors, we have the tragic consequences. Hopefully, we will never make such a mistake again and hopefully we will get another chance.
Secondly, we have been following your advice in preparing for the possible collapse of the US economy and thus the stock market, BUT is it not just possible that this extremely risky gamble on the part of the government is going to work??–Just as long as the rest of the world doesn’t balk at the magic US currency. If they keep accepting this increasingly worthless tender, perhaps the US will come out of the world-wide downturn on top.?? Are the other countries afraid to call the US bluff??
I believe in your theories and logic but maybe we will lose out just the same?
Respectfully submitted,
Daniel Taft
Thirdly, I submit that it might be possibe that the US financiers are overjoyed with this world-wide financial plumit because they plan in the end, when most of the stocks on all world exchanges are at firesale prices, to step in and buy them up and bring about Financial World Domination. Sounds crasy/impossible? Where did all of those trillions of dollars that so many banks almost everywhere paid out for almost worthless derivatives and the like – go????
I am in a quandry over this. I wonder if we will have deflation in big ticket items and inflation in every day expenses. US cannot print so much money and not wreck the currency.
Rich
Dear Martin:
I have been following your comments and highly respect your vision; but you can not accept all the credit. Your father Irving was a man of great vision…not based upon guesswork but upon hard work and research. You both are greatly respected in my eyes because of your rare and raw honesty. In the eyes of Americans and friends around the world you come through as men of principal. I speak in the plural because your father still lives through you. You have kept him alive in your new book, every father should have a son like you.
As far as whether American will survive “financially”, I think it will out of sheer guts. This nation was founded on conservative and honest principals. What we are undergoing at this time is the normal recompense for violating the rules of modesty. The ethic of hard work and savings did not seem to matter as much to the “neo-American” in the past 25 years. The further we got away from the lessions of the “great depression” the less we paid attention to solid principals of investment. We trusted the untrustable, we failed to act in the spirit of ancient Boreans who “researched matters each day to see whether they were really so.”
You can not cheat the rules of economics anymore than you can slip one over on gravity. It has finally caught up to us. Now we need to let this thing take it’s course. In doing so the lession will have a lasting impression and the natural pruning will take place. The thing I guess we all need to realize is that money is a tool of people and we do not originate from the things we possess. We are no where near the bottom of this thing and the farther we fall the more we will learn in the process. I say let it go…don’t keep pampering the delinquent child…let the whole economy take it’s medicine…then the economy can spout anew and the lessons learned of the “greater depression” can stay with us for awhile. God knows our kids need it.
I honestly do not know what Our Country is coming to. I fell like the Lord is putting us to the test. For my money we need to almost have a target as a percent, as to when we get out of a given stock. All bets are off when we reach the point. Question is how much is should we take off the table. I wish I had a good answer to that question.
Regards,
Bill Foushee
Will America survive? Of course it will because the ramifications for the rest of the world economies is too awful to contemplate. The survival will take a different form. Morally, the US has no moral authority any more in many parts of the globe after Bush etc. Its last bastion was its financial dominance, but trust has now vaporised and other countries will take definite measures to realign financially and become far less dependant on the US. The irony, as ever, is that the there seems to have arisen a financial chasm between the rich and the poor played out to a background of financial structures that promote ruthlessly, greed and arrogance. This is akin to the tragedies of the Third World and the idealism of democracy, US style, has become very hollow. (I’m Australian, spending months each year in Africa).
Martin,
Thanks so much for keeping us informed on the government’s blunders and the failing markets. Between you and Glenn Beck maybe we can rally enough troops to get through to the idiots in congress. I’m retired since 2004. I have very little invested in the stock market right now. Most of my investment I made in 04-05 are in start up companies that are suppose to go public but I’m still waiting and not seeing any return on my money. I do have some invested in silver which I’m liking right now as long as it keeps going up.
I too think we in for hyper inflation. It’s for sure the bailouts didn’t do as intended and our grandkids are going to be burdoned with the debt. I have to much confidence in the American People for us to fail, but I think it will be a different America that survives. We need to keep God in everything for if we shun Him he will shun us. Where are our rights as Christians?
I’m a retired investment officer and portfolio manager of the third largest trust department in the state of Ohio. Having read your material for years and agree with your outlook, the equity portion of my portfolio is: One third in commodities and related stocks (T. Rowe Price New Era Fund, Agribusiness ETF MOO, Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC and their Agriculture Fund DBA and Industrial Metals Fund DBB),
One third in Asia (T. Rowe Price New Asia Fund and the China ETF – FXI), One third in the Brazil ETF – EWZ. I have no faith whatever in the future of this country. I think we are where the Brits were in 1900 – having peaked out forever as a major economic power. You have done the investing public a great service as an unbiased outside of Wall Street advisor. When I worked at the Central Trust Company in Cincinnati (now part of PNC), I traveled to New York four times a year to visit our brokers – Salomon Bros., Merrill, First Boston, Morgan Satanley etc. I realized then they were hopelessly compromised and that Wall Street was essentially a casino. They are still peddling the falsehood that America is the greatest place to invest and that we will maintain our economic superpower status forever. In my opinion, the superpowers of the 21st century will be Asia and Brazil.
Wish you were President. You have had so much wisdom. It’s a shame noone in Washington has a clue. Why couldn’t you teach them something.
what has history shown us china ,germany we are a bankrupt debtor nation,our industry ruined ,dumping ground for foreign made good produced in some cases by slave prison labor.i believe that its been planned by the powers to be .i will not invest in the stock market goldand silver only hold on to your hats
How can we avoid an inflationary depression as long as we are printing money with no value and ignoring the law of supply and demand. This is insane.
I feel very strong about investment opportunities in Canada, especially in Canadian Trust Funds. I would be very grateful to hear your comments on that subject.
While I am not a ‘qualified’ investment professional I, nevertheless, have lived long enough to gather some knowledge. My feelings regarding investment in Canadian stocks are not emotional. Here are a few considerations to support my beliefs:
It seems evident that inflation will soon severely hit most economies. High inflation will certainly affect the U.S. dollar more than the Canadian dollar. (U.S. investors buying Canadian Stocks will have currency appreciation added to stock appreciation). – The Canadian Banking System is not plagued by the excess leverage found in the U.S. and in Europe. – In general, good Canadian Corporations have not used very high leveraged loans…
Looking forward to read your comments,
Gerald Lemaire
Martin, this nation cannot survive at the rate money is being printed and spent. Common sense tells us this. The Congress is enabling the Obama administration to essentially bankrupt the nation. Secured creditors are being treated as “unpatriotic” for wanting their debts paid. The national media is failing to do its job as the “third estate” and challenge authority. Under these circumstances, there is no such thing as a safe investment.
Gold,silver,seeds and a good water filtration system. Maybe a few goats since they eat anything and a good guard dog with a 357 mag backup. Plus a bible of course.
I woke up one day in October and realized that the country was heading into imminent bankruptcy and collapse. I heard some Peter Schiff podcasts and caught a few of the Weiss reports which further confirmed what I felt. I don’t believe that we are going to have deflation until there is a hyper-inflation collapse. I don’t believe the government will come to its senses until there dollar is worthless and we defaulted on our bonds. The fact is with guys like the Bamster and his henchmen running things, we don’t have a chance. Not that Bush was any better. The only thing that can save the country is a return to sound money and elimination of the Federal Reserve. From its formation in 1913 to the present time, the dollar is worth approximately 4 percent-and sinking fast–of what it was in 1913. From 1790 to 1913, the inflation rate was .12 percent. This means prices were about the same in 1913 as they were in 1790. That’s quite a proud record for our central bank. The Bamster and his cronies seem hell bent on making what little is left of the dollar even more worthless.
The results of this suicidal policy are not hard to foresee. Civil unrest, marshal law, and a total loss of freedom. We have no one to blame but ourselves. Our founders were much wiser than us. They knew and understood that the greatest threat to liberty is government. Unfortunately we will have to relive this lesson in the most painful way imaginable.
I have been reading your articles for a number of months now and totally agree with the content and the dangers for investors that lie ahead. I’m a resident of Australia and am receiving the same old advice from my financial advisor who guided me to a loss of over 40% during the GFC!!! I would like to follow your advice and guidelines, however do not have local representatives to use to help me. Also, with the local A$ so strong, I fear a position whereby I end up gaining with the investments [in US$] but losing on the currency [through any future weakening of the A$ against US$].
I have been a follower of your articles for over a year now. I’ve also purchased your book. The problem I’m having is all the green shoots that’s going on everywhere from consumer sentiment going way up, to the major increase in the market, increases in manufacturing , existing home sales etc. All you seem to hear is the recession has bottomed and we’re in the process of recovering. If you’re wrong, we’ve lost a major opportunity to get back some of our losses from the past few years. If you’re right, when do you feel this temporary upswing will end and we’ll begin the economic downturn you so strongly believe will happen.
I purchased a reverse ETF, 1350 shares of FAZ to be exact, several months ago at an average price of $19.00. The stock closed today at $4.66/share. Just after my puchase, the banks went from mark to market to mark to model. Go figure!
I agree with Martin Weiss that continued high unemployment, an avalanche of future foreclosures combined with high interest rates and a slumping dollar is going to pulverize the U.S. economy regardless of the tricks the banking sector is playing to make their balance sheets more attractive to the naive investor. I’m just being patient and waiting for the proverbial “you know what” to hit the fan.
Whether this year or next, these traders and hedge fund managers are NOT going to steal my hard-earned money. Keep proclaiming the truth Martin Weiss and crew. The smart money is on you!
why doesnt anyone talk about the Federal reserve, its controlled by the big banks, and as long as it controls the money system, and is controlled by the big wall st banks we cannot get anywhere.
Well it’s happened, and it comes as no surprise to me, the government is trying it’s hardest to bring this country to it’s knees.
The failing of GM, and American icon has saddened me to the point that I have no way to state how I feel, and no I don’t work for them, I work for myself, but I love America, and I love all it stands for, in my best estimates capitalism is one of the things it stands for.
In the United States we believe that hard work will pay off in the long run, but some would rather have it given to them, enter Obama and his redistribution of wealth, his killing of our way of life.
The government doesn’t care about the big three, they care about the union, and padding their voting base, which is what this is all about, there is no such a thing as a traditional loan that they pay back.
The government now insists on running the business of the big three, and we’ve all seen their track record for running big business, Obama wants to bring in socialism, and the more thing he destroys, the easier time he will have doing it.
It’s time to “WAKE UP AMERICA” for once be Americans and care about your country, it’s not about what the country can do for you, but what you can do for the country, for hell sakes buy American.
I could go on forever, but nobody will listen any way, so I bid a farewell to our country, and I would like to remind you how nice it has been to be an American.
Hello I am sorry to say I do think we are DOOMED and the AMERICAN PEOPLE have not got a clue most of the ones that have jobs and are making a good buck don’t know what is going on oh ya they heaar it on the news and read about it in the papers but I still think they have”nt got a clue.
I have been unemployed for over six months I have exsausted my first stint of unemployment and just started my second and I have been digalently applying for jobs on line and filling out aplications but no one calls not even for an interview and they tell you right off the bat don’t call us we willl call you. And if this is happening with little jobs like Burgerking and gas station/convenient store attendent what in the hell do you think they are going to do with corporate America they will make a shables out of that too.
Oh and my favorite it Obama wnats to send everyone to school for what all of 20009 grads are fullie educated and are looking for jobs oh ya they could work for free and get an internship ya that is going to put lots of food on someones table.
I see America being a lot of highlly educated people working at 7-11 and oh ya Walmart and lets not forget do you want fries with that.
No don’t get me wrong these are all desent jobs and I do’nt mean to pick on them but people need to wise up what are you going to go to school for if there are no jobs and educated people can’t get a job.
Kevin
My concern is that the borrowing has gone too far already. I see no
rational endgame. I have placed one foot out of the country by setting up
another residence in Panama. I fear that the game playing has brought us to
the point of 2+2=6 and that is the math we are going to be using until someone
steps up and calls our bluff. China seems to be that someone so far. The same
circumstances that elevated the U.S. to Super Power status are slowly being lost.
Rather than retaining our work ethic we are becoming the monkey in the cage
that keeps pressing the button to get his free cookie. The 50% of the people that
do not pay taxes and the politicians that pander to them have a simbiotic relation-
ship that will keep the same politicians in office election after election. GM will
turn into a faux welfare program. What next is anyones guess. Nothing will
surprise me now. I hope every day that there will be signs of a turn around.
I don’t see one. I will keep watching, most likely from afar.
Americans voted for a socialist regime and we will all have to pay in the time we have left. Our system is broke and no one around with enough sense to fix it. Not even heard from any members of Congress. Scary indeed.
It’s time to hear what alternatives we have as a nation. Would we be better off just letting all these business go under? If we do that, will it improve our position in the world? May so, maybe not. Do we want to take that chance? We’re really stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Dear Martin,
China holds a great deal of American debt. We are locked in a very disfunctional embrace, but WE ALL NEED TO KEEP DENYING THAT THERE IS A PROBLEM. So, would you just keep a little quieter? The reason we need denial so much, is because NOBODY HAS ANY CLUE (Admit this to yourself) AS TO WHAT TO DO. So if we bumble around a little longer, maybe all this will go away. Or, we can just pretend that the world is O.K. Witness our cute little ‘dead cat bounce’ of a stock market rise, and some pretending it might be real.
One solution I thought of, which will NEVER happen, is that the citizens of USA rise up and demand that the Federal governmen cut itself in HALF, right across the boards. Congressmen’s territories would have twice as many people. Each State would have only one senator. California’s Governor Schwartzneger should fire half of all the government workers and cut half the programs, as a goal to save money. We have just way too much government, and we can no longer afford it. Every state should fire half the government workers.
So now, Obama should write a check to all those fired workers, half or less than they used to make. Run the figures on that for me, will you? Are we making a dent?
Encourage every jobless person to start a garden in their yard, and if they no longer have a yard, public parks might work. Or they could till their working neighbor’s yards and get paid in vegetables. Or Obama could cut them all a little check also. Much less than bailing out banks and albatross automobile companies.
Best I can do for today. It all makes my head hurt. I will keep thinking. And buying gold mining stocks. Maybe some oil or gasoline.
It’s time that we hear viable alternatives to the current situation. Would we be better off if we let these businesses fend for themselves without some form of government intervention? If we did that, would we be better off as a nation? Would it improve our standing in worl? Maybe so, maybe not.
Hello yes I do think we are doomed and it is innevitable we have been sold down the river by past and present polaticians. I mean look what is going on people everything is falling apart and all our presadent can do is say everyone go back to school you have no job no money comeing in and he wants you to go back to school and we have millions of 2009 grads getting out of school that can’t find a job what makes him think that when I get out of school there will be a job for me oh ya I heard you could take an internship ya that is going to put food on the table and cloth children and pay rent and I could get rich too if some one could for me for nuthing
Dear Martin,
I have been reading your newsletters and book. It makes me wonder what the other school of economics has been drinking. I am saddened that the voters and the present administration have put their trust in the very people who orchestrated this great financial disaster. The only people who are benefiting are the theives. Thanks for helping me to improve my meager portfolio by about 15% this year so far. I appreciate and trust your group to give honest evaluations of the situations. It helps me to remain calm when things are so unstable in appearance.
Dr. Weiss:
I can”t get by the old phrase, “don’t fight the tape.” This market is not reacting to bad news and that can paralyze investors wanting to get back in. I feel that many mutual funds missed the March bottom and are under invested, so June will probably be an up month so they can report quartely portfolios more in line with the stocks that made these huge gains. This is a very difficult time to invest. I feel that the market may continue up until the fall. Watch out for September and October. Leveraged inverse ETF’s will probably be the play.
I think that GM deserved to go bankrupt, they are living in the past glories, and have gotten too arrogent and intraspected. It is too bad that the US Government attempted to save them!
Martin,
I agree with you. America will survive, but it will be a different America…it already has turned socialist, it will get worse. My money will not be worth as much due to higher interest rates, a weaker dollar and taxincreases. precious metals will be the strongest of all. My last comment is God Bless us all when this hits us in the upcoming months.
Martin,
With due respect to yourself and team, regrettably, we missed probably one of the largest rallies in a long time. I have been in mostly cash or in a very liquid position based on your advise, waiting for that true opportunity.
ZA
Unfortunately Common Sense is not So Common. The future generations should not pay the price of our Greed.
Dear Martin,
I sure appreciate what you are doing. I am thinking of getting a small parcel of land where I can farm, raise some chickens, and have room to absorb some friends, if they need help. The insanity is that we are so far from the pay as you go mind set, it boggles my mind. So I would say gold, real goods, including arable land, etc, not just to be safe, but also to create a more sustainable and sane lifestyle. This is already happening in China and Japan, an exodus back to the country. As far as investments go, we just need to be nimble and awake. Best, Haydon
If printing money would solve our problem then we would all be printing money.
Where will we be at the end of this. This is really worse than the late 1970’s and really being masked because we don’t have the high interest rates YET !!!
I am stuck in some respects with investment real estate, unless I can increase rental rates inorder to cover the future increases in interest rates that I will have to pay.
Alos, can we make it and have any wealth in the future without a true viable and broadbased manufacturing sector. I don’t believe we are still the world’s largest manufacturer. Can someone prove that real numbers?
I am concerned for the economy, the people but especially my son. He has been without steady work since 2006. I help him because he paid on his home for quite a few years before everything fell apart. I help him but it has put such a strain on me. I won’t tell him but he knows. I hate to see him lose his first home because of negilience on someone else’s part not his. I don’t believe Obama knows what he is doing. You cannot spend, spend, spend when you don’t have the money. When people file bankruptcy they do because the majority did spend foolishly. I wish we had people in government who actually knew what they were doing.
Reading all above comments it seems tome that a fair number of writers do not realize the contradictions in their statements. Roughly summarized: On the one hand they think that US-america is god’s gift to mankind and that they are entitled to all kinds of riches and benefits, on the other they bemoan the fact that that other people had the audacity to try and reach the trough.
While America is a large country, it is not superior or special in any way over any other place, safe for the fact that, collectively, it has always lived beyond its means. From the venerated beginnings there was debt and state interference in the economic process. Whether you think of the Louisiana ‘Purchase’ or the land give-away to the railroads, land that was no the government’s to give away in the first place. I can see no moral beacon (with some brief historical exeptions) but a lot of ’sausage making’. Leave the Almighty and the hoity-toity (correct my spelling, if you wish) out of it. There is no moral highground, never was, its all about how the few can stripmine the landscape at the expense of the many. Combine that with an inflated military (eating 40% of the budget) that often stuck its nose in places where it had no business (Vietnam, Central America, Middle East) and efforts to blame regulation as an assault on ‘free’ enterprise and you have cowboys running wild, trashing the place.
Wolfgang Sailler
Dear Martin,
I just wanted to thank you for being the Lighthouse in the storm that is about to hit us. I do believe we are traveling into uncharted waters and a difficult time for this country is ahead. I invested in paying off our debts and now I have joined you Million Dollar Portfolio in hopes of finding some success in these dire times. I dont have alot of capitol to work with. Most of my money is invested in a 401k. But I have a few thousand dollars to work with. I am hoping to find the path your father found back in the 1929 crash. I am following Claus Vogt’s suggestions but I have a question how soon do you think we will see the major downward spiral and ehat time period do you think it will last? Do you think that inverse ETF’s can sustain us or make us enough money to survive if things get bad? What other options do we have? Thank You and God bless.
Martin,
I am a new investor, I honestly admit that. I am not a cynic, but I do recognize what is going on in this economy, in this nation, and with the fed. I do forsee that the american culture has through the years passively forfeited its rights, values, financial intelligence, and desire to honor our predecesors values of self education, hard work, freedom, pride, and prosperity. On the positive note, there is more material wealth than ever in the world today. I forsee a future where technology enables production and business is so effiecient that only a small group of the population would even need to work. Things are already trending towards this model as humans around most of the globe have basically secured lifes necesities. Today the world moves on consumerism, and even that market will become more efficient and require a smaller work force. Have you ever seen idiocracy?
Here is how I see it. As long as America uses Fed dollars, the Fed will own the US and everything in it. So be it. The question is how can we make money. It is my belief, that the US government, the US dollar, and the US economy are all going to get way worse. We can assume that as through history, the fed is going to crush the dollar and crush the people of america. This will allow the government to gain more control of the citizens and businesses, and also enable to fed to gain more control over the government and business as well. As done throughout history. It will enable big money to buy up much of America, as done in the early 1900’s.
The only defense I can see possible is a Super High leveraged currency attack against the falling dollar. I have never traded currency, and have barely traded stocks. I haven’t yet read on currencies but I am about to. As a young man I don’t have much trading experience, but I know that in this market and in this world, our offense is our best defense.
After researching ETFS and leveraged ETFs I don’t personally feel that they are the best vehicle for profiting in the rocky economy. Heres why: The market is not perfect. People may hold out on their positions and stocks can still maintain value, just out of insanity or stubborness or desperation, despite bearish fundamentals. The crash may come, it may not, it may come in days, it may come in years. I think it depends, and I think it will take a bigger catalyst to trigger the huge consistent sell off needed to profit with inverse ETFs. Two, inflation may defend against a further decline in the market, even as fundamentals crater. Three, even if the market does come down, or move sideways it will also bounce up and down in small increments along the way. This up and down incremental movement actually takes away from the profitablity of ETFs especially leveraged ETFs, and may even cause negative gains even if the long term market moves in your favor. This I have discovered after taking your advice to study the significance of daily releveraging of ETFs.
As Jeff B pointed out, the world bankers are swift and powerful to say the least. We too must be swift, focused, bold, aggressive, and deliberate in our strikes to counter the destruction of the dollar and the economy, and profit from it.
Martin, I see that we must play currency and we must play hard and high leverage. I want people to be able to turn their thousands into millions in the currency market. I know people do it. I want to be one of those people. I suspect that the feds flagrant destruction of the dollar should be setting the stage for some nice predictable, sane profits in the worlds biggest market, currency.
Does any one agree with me?
Those who insist on holding to the belief our roiling economy is a Republican Vs. Democrat issue are doomed to remain distracted, angry and powerless — divided, we remain perpetual victims.
Kurt Vonnegut said it right:
“In the U.S.A. it’s winners vs. losers, and the fix is on”.
For those who don’t want to believe there’s power elite in this country and around the world that pulls most of the political and economic strings, well, peace unto to brother or sister. The simple truth is the super rich have gotten FAR richer than the rest of us over the past thirty years under laissez faire capitalism, and their hold over government — once thought to be controlled by we the people — has grown exponentially.
As long as coprorations enjoy all the legal rights of personhood, with few of the responsiblities borne by those of who are mere flesh and blood, and as long as money remains equivalent to the “free” expression, most of us mortals lose.
Fortunes were made and multiplied by the real estate/ finance debacle. The game was so ingeniously rigged in a maze of securitized debt, no one can say for sure where the money went. One thing for sure is that much of the equity lost by millions of people ended up in far fewer hands. It’s been the biggest, most elaborate white-collar crime of all time with Wall Street as the front man, and it’s still going on. Just wait till the insurance companies, big pharma, and HMOs get done reforming health care. We can slide even farther behind the rest of the industrialized world in health care performance as we increasingly commoditize and monetize human health.
Martin,
I bought your book about two weeks ago and now realize how unsophisticated I am in this area. I am currently about 20% percent invested, mostly in corporate bonds with a good yield. The rest is on the sidelines waiting for some inspiration. With a great surge in inflation very likely gold seems attractive but, can it go much higher? What is this talk of the “amero” replacing the good old Yankee dollar? I need a strategy. Thank you for your work. You are a voice in the wilderness.
Hi,Martin,
Yes, it`s got to a stage where there is no place to hide, be it for investor, shareholder or simply a saver. It seems the only resort is to buy precious metals, precious stones or art, for the really well-off! By precious metals I mean principally bullion, or bullion-based stocks such as GLD.
The fundamental question in view of GM collapse under a mountain of debt, what could happen to the US and indeed world`s economy, if indeed the US goes bankrupt under an enormously higher debt burden, which cannot be EVER repaid? Will it file for Chapter 11? In other words, will it be tempted to change it`s currency to another denomination overnight, say, `new dollar` and make the greenback illegal. Possible consequences of this move are just beyond my imagination, but perhaps, you , Martin could shed some light in thia.
Regards,
Mirek
we will survive but with a lot of Inflation
My personal opinion is that we may see hyperinflation in about 2 years or less.I think Gold,India and Brazil and short term, cds are the best investment at this time. also Australien based Cds are to be considered.(FDIC insured)
GM was almost destined to contract, regardless of recent woes and miscues. The car business became a replacement industry. When I was a kid the norm was one family car. Then Mom went to work, and things got so hectic the kids needed cars to get to shcool and activities. Lately, some families added an SUV for special trips. At the same time vehicles got built better so they lasted longer. More want for cars than need fueled the remaining tottering sales as demand had a head-on collisoin with rising prices on both the cars and the gas to run them. The debt crises was only the acute blow that knocked the shaky legs from under an industry which should have down-sized earlier to meet diminishing demand. The money we wasted trying to splint these wobbly legs could have been diverted to subsidize indusrtries in their ascendency, ones likely to produce more long lasting, secure jobs.
Being a realtor, I am in the middle of the housing crisis, which in return is in the middle of the average American. I look around and see the many foreclosures, which are skyrocketing because the banks have chosen not to work with the homeowner, instead they take back the property and either sell it on the open market at a lower rate that would have worked for the person they took it from, or sell them in bulk for pennies – and I mean pennies- on the dollar – again to “investors” or they will sit on them because it will cripple the home market havings so many destressed properties for sale. I hear story on story of the disorganized, disfunctional banks not being able to modify loans because of the investor problem, it is more benefical to foreclose because they will get paid by insurance. The point is, the greed is still rampant and I see no end in sight as long as the only choice we have is either greedy, dishonest big business or confused big government – help!
Martin
The banks are holding the good foreclosers on their books (600,000 properties) plus all of coming defaults in commerical and residential properties plus people without work! Check your mens undies. They say “2013″ !!! Thats going to be a couple cold winters with worn out shorts.
Good luck fellows!
I want to know why the fed is not paying attention to the economists at Barclays when they suggest NOT playing games unlike any Vegas casino could ever dream of.
And furthermore, do they know what happens if rates go up at this point?
They should be doing anything in their power to avoid that-Why don’t they get rid of the long bond? Have they done that, yet? Why?
Is anyone in their right mind in DC?
Our economy is like a nursing mother cat that is living off her her own milk and eating her own children so she can make more and start all over again until the Chinese get her fixed.
America will continue to decline unless our younger generations go back to basics. Too long have our people been assaulted by the Media, Academia, and Politicians with the mantra that they are the entitled and keeping up with the Jones’s is somehow patriotic. Steering the national ship of state by the fickle polls created by those that would deceive has led us to a place where we have found ourselves with no contact with the moral bedrock that made America free. With Representatives and Senators not in place to represent, but to fatten their wallets. It has been, and is, a fiscal sodom and gomorra with no care for constituents except to obtain their votes.
Martin: ‘Given current global wage differentials, and rapidly improving foreign technical competence, the outlook for American manufacturing looks grim. The export of U.S. technology, through outsourcing, reminds me of how Japan and Germany rebuilt with our help after WWII. The difference now, however, is that U.S. manufacturing is no longer making as much profit from exports, but instead through imports.
In my view, the “we think, they sweat” days are just about over. The decline of our educational and financial sectors relative to our overseas competitors is increasingly putting pressure on our labor force. For the last few decades our response has seemingly been to open our borders and diminish the value of our currency. It’s difficult for me to see how this approach can lead to a peaceful solution of our problems.
My current investments center on commodities in resource-rich countries, as well as Far East funds. Since I’m 75 years old, I’ve already distributed most of my estate to my heirs, presuming that a rapid increase in taxation is imminent (regardless of its impact on the economy). I’ve also suggested to my children that they consider emmigration, and to my grandchildren that they become fluent in Mandarin Chinese (ala Jim Rogers).
Sorry for the gloom-and-doom outlook, but I just can’t envision a solution to our problems short of lowering our wage scale to globally competitive levels, and/or having to serve a creditor master.
GM has proven itself not an icon, but a complete failure. It’s employees must share in it’s demise for obscene demands for retirement and health plans. Building cars with planned obsolescence so the buyer would have to buy another car has finally caught up with them.
As for Obama, I voted for him based on his platform, but his continued spending to “aid” the felons who cause this world-wide disruption, plus his continues barking for his “Jillion dollar” health plan leaves me gasping like a fish out of water. If he continues on this mad scheme, he’ll be known as being as big an a—–e as his predecessor. ER
Detroit coined the marketing approach, ” built in obsolescence”, They assumed the American consumer could be satisfied with gadgets and toys , like heated cup holders and the hell with mechanical integrity. And the unions were another joke. They deserved to go down in the face of pragmatic, forward thinking competition. You were spot on when you said bailing them out was a waste of our money and contrary to time tested rules and laws.
Martin
The government is doing what you expect it to do. They responding to the economic crisis like politicians not business people and statesmen. They are digging a deeper hole that will ultimately make the problems worse than it need be (and the problem is bad at best.).
I agree with you and Claus. Things must go back considerably at some juncture no matter how much money they throw at the economy.
Mike Mutterspaugh
Martin,
I think you and Claus are fantastic. I’m one of your Million Dollar Contrarians and I love it. You two have been careful, conservative and very, very consistent, all of which I am grateful for.
Yet there is one question I have that I can’t get answered on the War Room Briefings or any where else and it feels to me like the Elephant in the room. That question is if the US government has given up on the Dollar and is just trying to make this landing as soft as possible? I ask this because I believe it is true and I would like your opinion.
Briefly, every other fiat currency EVER has collapsed at some point. In some sense it would be good for our government (though not for us the people) to hit the reset button, issue a new currency and start over. But then what happens to every dollar denominated instrument or debt? You tell me. I’d really love your opinion…
It seems logical that instruments like insurance annuities become essentially worthless. But at the same time hyper-inflation would make the governments debts go away, right?
I feel this has become a realistic enough scenario for a straight shooter like you to give those of us who look to you for guidance some sense of if this is totally far-fetched Chicken Little talk, or, if not, what this kind of scenario would look like. Why do you feel it is still OK to be in dollar denominated investments, could that change? What’s your sense of if, and how quickly, this could unravel? If you see a dollar collapse as possible what would the implications be for different investments? Where would the safe havens be?
I’m in your Contrarian play with Claus and buying whatever he suggests. I’ve already aligned my portlolio to this philosopy. I’ve had NO consumer debt or credit card debt for the last 30 years. I’ve got a mortgage that is down to 34% of my house purchase. I hope to have it paid off in the next four years, maybe less than that.
Thanks for the heads up over the last 10 months I’ve been taking your advice.
Jim
I’m 80 years old, Spent 8 years in army. Spent 16 months in Korea.Never really had a job.
I’ve always worked for my self, I have one question I’d like answered. Can someone get a law passed that will require any money, returned from the TARP funds , be used to reduce the debt. If there is no law to do so, it will just go poof and my grand kids will be paying it off their whole lives. I’d also like to state that this president is a DISGRACE to our nation. Lets start a third party and throw the bastards out of office.
REMEMBER IN MARCH 2000 WHEN THE TECH BUBBLE BURST GOLD ALSO STARTED TO CRATER EVENTUALLY TO $ 250 PER OUNCE. I THINK MANIPULATION VIA MEDIA, TV , ADVISORY PANELS WILL DRIVE THIS MARKET ABOVE 10000 BY AUGUST AND THEN LET IT DROP LIKE A ROCK.WE ALREADY HAVE SEEN MARKET DROPS OF 777 POINTS AND I THINK WE WILL SEE A DROP ONE DAY OVER THOUSAND POINTS.REMEMBER THEY ONLY WILL CLOSE WALLSTREET IF THE MARKET DROPS MORE THAN 1350 POINTS IN 1 DAY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS EVEN GOLD WILL DROP
Do you see a time coming when the govt will go after the retirement accounts and assets of private investors? Is there anything we can do to protect our assets from our govt? I don’t see anything stopping the DC politico mob from taxing and eventually stealing our investments when they’re ready too. We can see the damage they’ve done already.
I believe gold will benifit the most over the next few years as we are in a Kondratieff winter and faith will be lost in the US dollar. The government is following the script.
Martin,
After grad school, many years ago, I was offered several outstanding positions in western Canada. I, foolishly, turned them down and returned to Southern California. Big mistake!
I am sincerely worried about the direction this country has taken over the past several decades and now look where we are! Can this nation recover? Frankly, I doubt it. If it does, it won’t be anything like what we remember as young adults growing up. This is a disaster and it is getting worse by the day.
To those that have posted to this blog who are so smug about their being debt free and financially secure and regardless of how bad things could get, would be able to maintain their lifestyles and in fact enjoy care-free jaunts to the nearby beaches and parks for a lovely afternoon with their families, don’t seem to understand or choose to ignore the fact that if we do experience an economic and social meltdown (and I fervently hope and pray that we don’t have a collapse) that your days will not be as rosy as you think. If things do get that bad remember that there will be strains, stresses and disruptions to every facet of our day to day lives which could get worse with every passing day. Some of these disruptions and shortages include the ability to get food, water in some areas, heating and cooling for the home, transportation, public services(police, fire, ambulance) being under funded and overwhelmed, etc. to name just a few and you add to that a rising level of increasingly desperate people who have been forced into destitution and are also seeking resources and struggling for survival suggests that those that can will be hunkered down in their homes struggling to preserve what they have, protecting themselves and also struggling to get by.
This idea that the very affluent would weather the crisis in relative style and enjoy lovely afternoons at the beach and park as depicted in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s “The Great Gatsby” during the Great Depression could happen today but only for those living in private closed protected communities secluded from the masses. For the majority of us (even those who are debt free, living in nice neighborhoods and with some financial reserve) I think life could get much more difficult and much scarier with forced changes to our value systems if a widespread deep meltdown were to occur. With so many teetering on the edge, to the tune of tens of millions of Americans already and many more beyond them if further shocks to the economy happen, the consequences would truly be dire.
For a more graphic explanation and depiction of how bad things could get, refer to Glenn Beck’s television show several months ago on FOX where he interviewed 3 pundits who went into some detail about it. Tough to think about scenarios like that but what if? I hope they turn out to be crackpots.
Yes Amercia is a great country and will return to be a great country in the years ahead. In the short term we are going into another deflationary time and then into
a hyper inflation time and possably war time and then we will return to the #1 powerhouse in the world. But it might take 15-20 years to get there.
Retired Army 20 years +/-. Thought I was thru with the whole gun thing. Did not own one till last year when I purchased 6. Hated to spend the money but “Be Prepared”. Been buying silver for 4 years. No stocks, bonds, ETFs, IOUs or any other paper. Hedged by 50/50 eagles and numismatic coins pre 65. I know I have no input in either local or national politics and still not one person I have ever voted for is in office. I gave up on the two parties of whores years ago, never to return. All I can count on is family and friends. A loose coalition has formed and caches are buried. Paranoid? Who knows, who cares. All I can do is protect my own and hope other pragmatists out there can do the same. sic sempre tyrannis.
Martin, I am a teacher in So.California. I have noticed a total sea change in my students poverty levels. For example, today our yearbook coordinator said we have not sold 200 of the yearbooks the school had purchased to sell. The school will lose about $50. per book. So many of my students are on welfare and some form of government aide…and they all feel entitled to more. Many have lost their cell phones and other gadgets. I think we have programmed an entire generation of “entitled” people who now their whole world is about to come crashing down. This used to be an upper middle class area, but now we are sinking in to a third world of non english speaking renters who live 5 families to a house.
Martin: The market keeps going up, perhaps as much as the dollar is going down, thus not a real gain. If the trend persists, keeping the money in cash seems even worse.
Agree that with the government actions, bailing and printing, there is no way but down for our economy. Is the european situation any better, same as ours or worse?
Thanks for your sensible comments
Elisa
I have been a subscriber for about a year. I read all of Martin’s messages. I really appreciate your call on the markets back in October 08′. It saved me a lot of money. I haven’t been able to get back into the market, short or long because of the volatility and wild swings the market has been going through. I have been waiting for the turndown in the market as Martin has predicted, but the S&P 500 is above the 200 day moving average, the Nasdaq is on a tear, and the Dow is doing well. So my question along with other bloggers I have read, how much more of this rally will we see before we start using contrarian ETF’s
I have little to no faith in stocks at the moment, i feel we may have a interest rate spike with in the coming years, which will cause delayed economic recovery. the markets dont seem to be trending in normal patterns(i wonder if its to do with gov stimules distorting things?)
For the record im an aussie, we dont seem to have it quite as bad here but i feel we just tend to operate behind America ecomomically, so im still waiting foe the ball to drop
Martin, It is truly said to see GM go down the tubes. What bothers me most is America will more than likely get caught up in the whirlpool of financial failure also. Lets discuss the automobile industry, America has had the technology, facilities, engineering and the talent to combat the foreign car avalanche that has stolen American dollars, American jobs because we were complacent, lazy and naive. The American automotive industry sat by and let this take over of America happen. Shame on them, shame on us Americans for allowing it. Now that we have literally sold our souls to the devil we will have to pay the price. Our elected officials can’t run America let alone a car company
Watching the impending economic disaster unravel,doesnt surprise me one bit.If one uses bad business practices,failure will ultimately occur.Starting in the 60s with the printing of worthless paper money,was the start,and as the US govt perfected its’ ingenious plan,it has now reached its’ zenith.With the manipulation of the dollar,they have been able to raise you taxes and steal your wealth,and they never even had to open your wallet.Brillant ,is’nt it.If the value of your currency is constantly dropping you are nothing more than the donkey chasing the carrot hung from the stick in front of your nose.Too bad they didnt see all the destruction it would cause,but the politicians probably didnt even care. Hell,the average American cant even balance his checkbook or calculate intrest,so do you think they could see this scam being fabricated.Fortunately ,my wife and I have reached a point of NO debt. Everything is paid for. House,cars,credit cards and everything else is paid for! Debt has strangled America,from the college student to the Govt. of the US.The simplest rule has always worked,but it was the one everyone forgot. It’s not a sale till it’s paid for. Scary concept,huh? Fasten you seat belts.It a rough ride in store and the lunatics are driving the bus.
Martin, I’m a member of the Contrarian group. I have to say that Claus seems to know his stuff as you do. However, NO ONE can time this market. I’ve been doing very well with GLD/SLW/RIG/Etc. My only losses have been the picks from Claus. BUT I fully understand that this rising Market is not going to go on much longer. I do feel when it gets hit the PM’s will take a short drop but recover. They will recover because “Where else can you go”?
FWIW
Dear Martin,
I’ve been reading the blogs that you publish. They are very amusing and I can sympathize with most of your readers. The ones that get under my skin are the anti-democratic freedom fighters who come across more like fascists. I am now reading a book that is informative about your favorite subject: “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I highly recommend it to all of your bloggers.
How do we wake up America? I am afraid we are in a long sleep — we who are over 70 and still working just to keep our heads above water. I am afraid that the America that we all love is going down a wrong path.
Dear Sir:
The problem is the Fed. Get rid of it. Congress’s job is to control the money, not some private bank. Congress has not done done their job. When the people finally realize this I wouldn’t want to be a congressman/woman.
My problem with all that’s going on with the US economy is that the “powers that be” don’t believe that problems scale. If a family lives beyond it’s means, then sooner or later the family’s finances will collapse and suffer the consequences of prolific spending. The idiots running the government believe that by controlling the printing presses they are immune to the same fate. All the historic evidence not withstanding, somehow they have this financial lunacy that their approach will be different. Even worse, we have a president who doesn’t cast a shadow and never accomplished anything but eloquent oration in his entire career telling the nation’s businesses how to function and what they should produce. The lemmings of the left asked for “change” and they are in the process of getting what they asked for. To paraphrase, be wary of what you ask for because you may get it in spades.
Martin thank you for your valuable ongoing information, I spread your word whenever I can but fear some cannot stand the truth. My wife and I are small business owners, been so our whole career – 25 years so far- practically every aspect of our “wealth” is tied up in our business. I have now set a goal of at least 50% of our retirement holdings and non retirement holdings to gold ETFs and have seen some return, will hold on for the ride. It is clear to me, and should be to many others by now, that the current administration’s dealings with all that has taken place is way too risky, venturing into totally unchartered territory, with little factual basis for recovery at our current pace. By now we should all be able to point out those responsible for a majority of the financial chaos and make our voices heard through the upcoming Congressional election cycle. If Congress won’t give us term limits, then we have to take it on ourselves and vote the career politicians out of office and replace them with clear thinking normal people. Clearly we need different leadership and individuals that are not career politicians in it for themselves, but normal people, who represent you and I. I tell my wife, if I were to win the lottery tomorrow I would immediately move into politics and do all I could to change the current face of America. Mr. Wegeman, you are to be commended for all your hard work and effort, I am sorry this has happen to you and the thousands in similar positions. I wish this would turn out differently for you. You are entirely right when you say, America Wake Up, wake up before its too late!
Our Government (top officials in Washington D.C.) are like a drunken Sea Captain steering our nation into a GIANT ICEBERG! It looks to me that it is intentional. This is worse than Pearl Harbor Day!
The very foundations of our nation are being shook; violently; it is scary, to say the least. I’m a WWII Veteran. My outfit was in the center of the Battle of the Bulge & we were outnumbered 10 Germans to one of our Soldiers. Yet, with leadership and determination we reversed the tide against us and won the Battle.
We have no truthful leadership in Washington. American Citizens need to be introduced to reality! That will not come from our Politicians.
In the meantime we need to salvage what we can (Country & our assets) while we can
The gov has no money!!! ONLY TAXPAYERS MONEY !!!!!! SO SOONER OR LATER US TAXPAYERS WILL PAY FOR EVERYTHING THIS CONTROLED ADMIN IS DOING IN THESE REGARDS.
Of course America will survive but we will have to learn to live with less, and really start to be competitive again. I agree with Jeff B that a really good place to start is encouraging your congressman to vote for HR1207; and kudos to Ron Paul for pushing this.
With GM going like a dino what can we expect of inflation and how soon will it come about? I think we are in for rough times for several years and may not recover at all.
America will survive.
The unconstitutional pseudo-government that we have probably won’t,
and that’s a good thing.
The fiat currency that has been posing as the dollar for decades
certainly won’t – and that’s a very good thing, because it will teach
people not to put their faith in government-issue paper.
Investments currently denominated in paper “dollars” will fare well or
poorly, depending on whether or not they can be converted to a more
substantial basis.
Productive assets will continue to exist, and eventually someone will
take them over and run them – whether it is the original owners and
investors or someone else.
My view is that the next step will be a huge INFLATION, that all the governments will WELCOME, in order to pay with monkey money their huge debts!
(I guess that China is praying this will not happen)
Question is: what can we do?
Here’s my thinking. If you do not have some gold and silver, you are penniless.
When the OTC derivatives blows up in a few weeks/months, the dollar will be destroyed.
Then comes the political wars to add misery to the pain. Before the end of this year, I willl add.
It will be miracle if our nation survives even close to the way we now know it.
Matters not Republican or Democrat, it is over.
Matter of a fact, look for a strong,winning third party to appear by 2012, if we survive that long.
Sorry, just my thoughts.
fkimbe
Dear Martin,
I must say I’m amazed by a tendency by many out there, who likely belong to the party that “drove the car into the ditch” to blame this Democratic administration. I think that the reality is that since Ronald Reagan (a former democratic “socialist”) & Co. advanced the “greed is good” philosophy, we have, as a people, been traveling downhill ever since. The Clinton administration also drank this Darwinian kool-aid…my point being there is plenty of blame to go around…none of which will save the United States. Let’s stop pointing fingers and find some common ground to save what’s left of the nation-state. Perhaps we have reached the stage where our loyalties belong more to specific world-wide “tribes,” otherwise known as corporations, than to our native land. If this country is to survive, it is going to have to BE a country again. Instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul, the Treasury buying its own bonds (the snake eating its tail) and the resultant inevitable hyper-inflation, we need to get back to Glass-Steagal (regulating derivatives is a hoax) and to invest in science and technologies (no, not better computer games) that improve the lot of mankind. Meanwhile, my advice is to batten down the hatches by buying energy, gold and silver. These have done better by me than the inverse ETFs that you’ve recommended, which I stopped out of. I think the party has lasted longer than you thought, but I’m sure your prediction, as always, will eventually come to fruition and so I’m planning on adding this hedges again. Thanks, again, Martin, Mike, Larry & Co. for all you do…you keep me sane…and thanks for reminding us that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself…”
Andy
Martin: I have read you for thirty years and commend your consistency re capitalism, free trade and democracy as it ixisted in the last(20th) century. Who could have expected the change wrought as a result of the left wing media on the liberal leaning citizens of our country. It’s going to take a monumental effort to reach core America, to undo some of the harm done already. Thank you for your efforts We all support you.
Carol W. Armstrong, MD
Washington has been breaking the law for years, even more so with Obama in office. The Fed is not constitutionally permitted to do what it has been doing, yet Washington is getting away with it. Where are the checks and balances . . . I guess we have only checks . . . being written to banks to use taxpayer money to pay lavish bonuses, to business that should be allowed to fail because “the price of failure is failure.” If we the people don’t do something about this escalating mess soon, there will be a crash of such proportions that the Great Depression will look like a cakewalk. What is going on now is called the “Big Push,” where the powerful and wealthy stack more power and wealth onto their stockpile. Then you will find prohibitive gun/weapons laws so that the middle class, the true homeland security, is disarmed. That is their hope. We are going the way of Germany and the attempted annihilation of an entire race of people. If we are not diligent, it will happen again. Now Washington is talking about a 25% tax on goods at the manufacturing level and a tax on health insurance paid for by employers. How much more can the middle class take? Not much!! I make a good wage and I have curtailed buying because I don’t feel secure in my job. I would like to retire in four years, but I don’t think that is a reality!! We need a huge change in Washington, a change that will occur only when the American middle-class rises up and says ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, IT’S TIME TO STOP. Thank you for your time.
Since I am well into my eighties, I have seen and lived through the Great Depression of the 1930’s and several down turns since. In my opinion we “ain’t seen nuthin yet”. With the debt load of the people, mostly credit card debt, for toys and expensive living as well as over inflated home needs( who needs a 2500 square foot house) in both the US and Canada. the debt load of the countries both Canada and the US, the only solution is high inflation , which will come. Cost of living which we have not learned how to avoid( we have to eat) will become Germany after World War I, bread twenty dollars a loaf. Where is the best place to put money? Maybe equity stocks(?) which one needs to be able to get into and out of fast. I hav’nt figured it out yet, but am staying tuned. Norm
In order to survive in a global economy we need to establish a balance in trade. How much longer can survive by selling our debt to other countries?
Mr. Weiss, thank you for all your advice over the last year. I am poor compared to many who post here. I presently have about 12K in a traditional IRA in a 6 month CD at my credit union that will come due in August. I am trying to decide if I should roll the entire thing over to a gold IRA with a certain company (Goldline). I understand there will be some fees involved with this, so I am hesitant, since the amount is so small to begin with. I am also concerned that the government could decide to confiscate everyone’s IRA’s, as conversations have been reported several times over the last 6 months. This 12K is about all the money I have in the world, save my day-to-day that is funded by my job. Do you think it would be wise for me to put this in a gold IRA, or should I leave it in short term CD due to the uncertainty, or should I just cash the thing out and put it in my mattress?
Thanks.
PS – oh, I think we are headed to depression with hyperinflation, and the big cities that have been run into the ground by the democrats (New York, L.A., Chicago, D.C., Detroit) are going to see civil unrest as unemployment continues to rise and the Obama voters realize that they have been had.
hi martin thanks for all you do…i believe the USA is finished..the 10 year and the dollar are beyond control and the obama adm is failing. we better get a new senate and house next year or we are totally cooked. that proably wont help much but it will stop or slow down nobama. im worried but i have gold and silver.ive been studying this mess for over 3 years.i moved my retirement account out of harms way before the dow started off its high in 07. i respect guys like you and jim rogers and peter schiff. again god bless jeff
You are very seldom wrong,BTW I think our Aussie Government also gone mad on putting every one in dept.(we actually had a surplus but after short time our new Gov has rearranged that…..)
I do think the Governments of the world are desperate to get some (blind) confidence in the people wanting the people to start spending more money.The governments have completely missed the point …. that the world financial problems were caused by greed and lending/spending beyond repayment ability in good times what is going to happen now things are not great.Blind Freddie should see more spending/borrowing will not fix the problems Might for a couple of months its it is like giving a junkie a months supply of fixes .Somewhere I saw a blog that says if the US government does not inject $$$ into GM that a lot more CDO’s will fail causing many more financial problems all around the world. As for the rising Stock market I think its more money being pumped in to draw people to the belief all is going well.
HOW CAN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT GIVE GM MORE MONIES TO HELP THEM OUT OF THEIR STUPID DILEMMA . WHEN GM OUTSOURCES JOBS TO MEXICO ,CHINA AND CANADA ,WHICH CAUSES MORE AMERICANS TO LOSE THEIR EMPLOYMENT .FOR THE LAST THREE DECADES
I’M SURE GM KNEW JAPAN WAS MAKING A BETTER VEHICLE . NEED I SAY MORE ?
Paul Wegeman story is the same as my wife and mine. We wached as our net worth go into the tank. We live in Michigan and have been caught in a one state recession for the past 8 years. Now the rest of the country has caught up with Michigan. I would move except I can’t sell my Home for enough to allow me to relocate. I have a second home which is a rental that barely covers mortgage. Based on the current market on my rental I am under water on my mortgage. I am 66 and still working. I work for a supplier of GM, and that can blow up any day. I never thought I would be in this position. I am not sure being a burden on my kids is an option because the current administation wrecking the economy, printing money,and creating hyper inflation I worry about my kids and grandkids future. We all could end up living under the overpass. This is change we can believe in. I America dose not catch on soon It will be too lake to undo the damage.
Possibly Atlas has shrugged
I am of the opinion that we are a nation of hustlers. I am ashamed of the legacy we will leave for the next generation. I and most of my friends have lost all faith in financial institutions and the financial community as a whole. It is unfortunate that our society cannot produce or allow people of “substance ” to step up and become our leaders in these troubled times.
I am worried about bonds. I have U.S. Savings Bonds – I Bonds. Are they in danger?
Thank you.
Kathryn Bowers
Is it possible the stimulus money will prop up the economy, improve certain statistics and bouy investor’s confidence for now? Is it possible we could be in for a “W” type double recession with the next big downturn happening as a result of the stimulus fund’s impact (real or immagined) eventually winding down, perhaps in a few to several months? In the interim, in following the current trend, regardless of whether it is commodities or any other sector, tight sell “stop loss” orders would be prudent. Some individual or multiple events, announcements, etc., could shake investor’s confidence. For now, the markets are being driven upwards mostly, but not universly, based on emotion rather than fundamentals. Please feel free to contact me for an investment possibility that may be worth consideration. With every good wish for success and best regards to all, Walt B.
It appears that the Fed is hell bent on flooding the economy with new money. This will lead to high inflation. This scenario; they hope, will lead to big increases in asset prices. The hope is then that these asset values will get close to the level of liabilities held on balance sheets. This will result in the Fed holding all the countries debt. The next job will be to get this down without raising interest rates to levels that are unsustainable.
Is this what you think can happen. ?
we have invested ALL of our assets in a Vanguard treas MM. How safe is this with the gov printing money etc. I am rally geting scared that there is no safe place for our retirement savings.WPH
I attended a “Rich Man” seminar in Sydney, Australia over the weekend and the information we gathered from Robert Kyosaki and his team combined with what I have been reading in “Money & Markets” for some time has inspired us to come home & get the hell out of the Australian Stock Market because America is sneezing big time and we believe (in spite of the positive publicity the media has been spinning lately) that Australia is about to get the flu. We are heading for bullion and cash – to take advantage of the opportunities that we believe are about to present themselves.
Here in the Detroit area the bankruptcy of Chrysler and now GM has devastating effects on a local economy already at 10.8% unemployment. The government takeover was strictly to preserve and protect the unions until the next election. The UAW and Teachers Unions contributed the most to Obama’s election. After the 2012 elections, the Federal government will hardly be able to wait to get out of the car business, and they won’t care what happens to it, but yet again this is what happened with Amtrak. The Federal government will not be able to build cars that Americans will buy. Every Congressman is going to have their hand in the pie trying to protect plants in there own Congressional districts. A Senator from Kentucky didn’t even know Saturn was part of GM until yesterday!
I grew up in the Eastern European country between 12-49 of my age.After many trial I succeded to immigrate in the best country in the world.I worked hard sometimes 18 hours a day and I considered to have my retirement assured. With this economic crush I lost more than 60% of my investments.But this is nothing,comparatively with the real CHANGES in this country.I am scare by the speecheses of our leaders.They are exactly like in Cuba,Russia(before the 1989)Hungary,GDR and Romania of Ceausescu.It’s so frithening that many times in the night I wait to heart he knock on my door and ask to go with them.Everything is going toward Socialism-Comunism.No doubts that AMERICA goes TOWARD PROMISED CHANGES.GOD BY FREEDOM,
This whole mess can be attributed to the Federal Reserve system and the money masters.
They have been setting this up for years to own the world!
i do not think america or the world will survive economically or environmentally. i published a letter to the editor in 1974 advocating a depression for environmental reasons. if u do not have a depression u will not survive & if u do have one u probably will not anyway but in any case a depression is needed is my position. see econcomist e j mishan. the collapse of gm is a great start towards one. it seem; to me mr weiss u miss the point as u grieve over the above..
I have been investing in gold, gold stocks, and commodities this year and have been doing quite well. I do have a question about about a certain ETN. It is a “Double Long” ETN. Could you explain to me how that works if it goes up or down when I purchase “X” amount of shares? Thank you very much.
Martin, if you and your team don’t know the answers to these questions, how do you expect me to know? I look to you for guidance.
When you look at the historical precedents, all indications are that the United States, as now structured, is toast. Even the governor of Texas recently discussed the possibility of secession, and Glen Beck recently surmised what would happen if the majority of people and states simply refused to pay federal taxes. Surely you all realize this–do you have any favorite Survivalist authorities that you would like to quote or refer us to? Its just a matter of time, which will be hastened if we have any natural disasters, like hurricanes, earthquakes, or even another prolonged winter. I know Martin Weiss has a second home in Brazil–perhaps some more information along the lines of where others could find suitable refuge during the coming desperate times would be helpful.
Dear Martin
Just 1 thing the australian dollar will slaughter me if i invest with u , rising aussie sinking us dollar , my profits will run away
Martin,
Thanks for reading our posts. It is a sign of humility which is rare among financial analysts.
I’m not a financial planner or economist but I have had a lifelong interest in history, psychology, economics, sociology and philosophy. This leads me to look for deep causes and turn away from simple explanations. I have a great respect for your views, not because I always agree with them, but because I know they are grounded in experience and wide reading.
I notice that you are able to change quickly as your perceptions of events and facts change and I don’t see that as a weakness but as a strength
The facts are there and the fundamental laws of human nature and of human interchange don’t change even if our understanding of them sometimes does.
We live in perilous times and it is essential to keep our eyes on facts and to continue reading our classic works to help us interpret the facts. I’m confident that you will continue to do that.
My only possible contribution to your work would be to remind you not to forget the deep irrationality of human beings which is demonstrated by our history. You are often accused of being a Cassandra but you are simply a realist who knows the past.
Keep the faith,
Jim Street
what should i do i have gold and im going no where
i hate to see my america decay.i love gm and all it does for the all of us.i love model trains also and am wondering what will gm become.all i do is look at how lionel has panned out.i will admit they make some wonderful fun smart items now,but paying up first and then waiting a year to get it,not so much fun.who said it was going to be fun anyway.work work work.think like a ant and you will survive.it is never really yours anyway if you really think about it.we only borrow it then someone else gets it
Ed Pulido
I had the opportunity to work for a great company and retired in 1994, luckily with a decent pension a good profit sharing. Our house is fully paid and we don’t have a extravaganf life style. We are economically OK. We believe in buying American, in fact we are loyal to GM and the last 8 cars we owned were GM’s. The american people killed the auto industry, they fell in love with cars from Japan. Driving in New Jersey all the cars on the roads ara japanese. Another thing wages and benefits of the auto workers are exorbitant compare with US Toyota, etc
Martin first I wish to thank you for first for the information you gave us by telling us what to watch out for and second for giving those able to a place to put their money during this deep dark time . I wish all those invested with you best of luck. I don`t have the money to get into the game or I`d be in it up to my elbows .
The problem I`m seeing is that the playing field has never really been even . The general public has been two steps behind with insider trading that goes on as well as the put offs the public never has a chance unless by some miracle they get lucky . You are giving them that can that chance i applaud you and your company for helping . The system is broke I don`t think once this hits bottom it is ever going to come back there is too much hidden greed and deception on Wall street not enough understanding and compassion for the little guy and with out the little guy there is no one to steer the ship . Best of luck once more ……………… Rick
I am operating from Sri Lanka. I am always following up US economy status. I am teriibly shocked to see your letter I received today. What is happening to US and us in Sri Lanka. We have finished the 30 year war and we have to now develop our small island. Our main economy is Tourism, Tea, Rubber and Garments. I want your comments about our economy.
I am in the real estate brokering business. I have not done any deals for the past six months. Why not people with some money in hand come to SL and invest in real estate and start a simple life. Is it possible to encourage them?. Then I am sure I can also make some money.
I need your clarification of the situation.
Best egards and thank you.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE CONTINUING INTERVENTION OF THE GOVT. IN ALL ASPECTS OF OUR LIFE. THE BOOK “ATLAS SHRUGGED” BY AYN RAND SAYS IT ALL. EVERYTHING GOES TO THE POLITTICALLY CORRECT OR TO THE “NEEDY” AT THE EXPENSE OF THOSE THAT ACTUALLY PRODUCE. THIS WILL DESTROY AMERICA AS WE KNOW IT.
What we are witnessing in america and around the world is the dismantling of one
system for another. The greed has distroyed the system and has run its course.
Any system that feeds off of its self will soon die. The people who plan the future
of America are wise, the system was milked dry. So now a new system.
I am semi retired and have approx. $400k in cash. What would you suggest?
Your question, “Will We Survive?” begs a Yes answer. I suggested to President George W Bush that he declare bankruptcy for all of us, both as a nation and individually in one fell swoop by presidential directive. In other words, everyone is absolved from all debt wherever noted or recorded. Then we all start over again with a clean slate, from scratch. That way, the complete bankruptcy that is America would start everyone out on a level playing field. Instead of dragging it out over a period of years where everyone is slowly positioning themselves to stick the other (Like Ruff’s definition of the Old Maid Game), there would be no recovery by the sharks circling the money. Those shark bankers would also suffer greatly.That is where we go eventually. There is no turning back. Our nation is bankrupt. But the sharks still wound up with the money. Bankrupting the whole nation would at least declare it to the world, and let the whole world start over. What a sorry mess that will be. There is no do-overs in this game. The bad outcome is guaranteed because of the larceny in most everyone, all around the world, China included. The only bubble remaining is the giant money printing machine alluded to by Doug Noland at Prudent Bear Advisors. What a collapse that will be.
Martin
Thankyou for all your very acurate advice over the past couple of years. If the Fed continue to pump money into the economy causing the US dollar to drop even more against other currencies then what would be one of the safest currencies to hold cash in going forward.
Many companys have gone over seas because of high taxes, theres alot, of what this
country is made up of not to mention the jobs. In Calif, lots of jobs are lost to other states because of the dispicable goverment runing this state.
As you have described in your letter, the traggidy of our country is the direction it’s
taking with the masterful stupidity of or so called leaders (bums) buming of the people.
I can only see it getting worse before it may get better.
God bless us all, semper fi, Randy J
As uncertain as it is to predict the future based solely on the past it is however a guide. If we trace the success & failures recorded in Biblical history , when mankind obeyed God, He blessed them and they prospered and had times of peace. To directly disobey Him always led to disaster, slavery, impoverishment, humility, death, starvation, captivity, rape of the peoples and lands and total ruin. In my lifetime we have spit in His face, murdered the innocent children, abandoned the widows, and as unrepentant rebels have defied Him at every turn.
You ask “do i think America will survive”? Not without the steady hand of God Almighty guiding, protecting, and delivering us.
The once bright light set on a hill for all nations to see is so tarnished no one in the world can begin to see so much as a dim glow form North America.
We may have to learn a very hard lesson our forefathers learned in the desert.
Martin:
I live in southern California and I feel the next b.f.d is the chapter 9 filing. Chapter 11 for GM is nothing compared to a 9 filing for California. I actually welcome this event as I would rather have a federal judge and a trustee running things than the clowns in Sacramento. Let us abrogate the insane labor union contracts and start over. It is the only way out of the hole we dug for ourselves.
Bob
In a 5 year time frame, to me the question is whether we will experience hyper inflation or deflation? I have read and thought about this at length.
Printing money and increased taxation is definately inflationary, on the other hand unemployment paints the picture of deflation because suppy will outweigh demand if there are no buyers.
everything will be all right for a little while and then the problem of paying off this dept will surface–the new president was left with a mess and has no idear of what will happen and he is pulling straws .. THE GREED IN THIS COUNTRY ==CEO’S ‘UNIONS AND THE CROOKED POLITICIANS HAS RUINED THE AMERICA’S AND IT WILL NOT RETURN AGAIN–WE USED TO BE NUMBER ONE–BUT NO MORE—WE OWE EVERONE AND WE WILL BE TAXED A LOT TO PAY FOR OUR MISTAKES
Dear Sirs…….One year ago I purchased a fixed Annuity (single life w/period certain) from the HARTFORD..I am currently 73 years old..I paid $250,000.00,,,,and receive $1,926.00 per month..I live in the state of Washington which stands behind annuities up to $300,000.00….After reading a great deal from the folks at Weiss as well as others I have become very concerned about the viability of HIG and therefore my monthly income which I rely upon heavily…..Sincerely….Lee Scott
I would have thought your inverse ETFs would have worked,but not so, except TBT. Maybe the Government will declare bankruptcy and wipe out all the investors like they have been doing with all of the other companies, then China won’t have to worry whether their bonds are good.We furnished a room and not one item was made in this country-can’t continue to exist that way. I think the answer is-let China annex us-we can get rid of all our failed beaucrats and a failed American style capitalistic economy that was supported by the world purchasing our treasuries and other debt instruments.
I have received information from Martin Weiss and his group for a long time. I really do respect them. I have felt uneasy about paying a large fee for advice as our portfolio doesn’t have a lot of room for losses. I recently lost approximately 50% of my portfolio containing IRA’s and 401K. After watching the Dow’s spiral downward, I cashed out when the Dow reached 6500. I get a lot of finamncial advice through the internet but am very leary of what to do. I believe rare coins may be better than all gold or common silver for maybe 50% of my cash. What do you think about this? We are 78 years old and don’t have a lot of years to wait for the portfolio to grow.
I appreciate your guidance and am very much in the camp of those respondents who believe the worst is yet to come in the financial markets. I don’t however feel it is productive to paint obama as the evil one. This path was laid out long before he burst onto the scene. Have we forgotten the last 8 years? Additionally, the Contrarian Portfolio seems to rely heavily on analysis akin to the elliot wave—which does not argue about political parties.
1. A suggestion:
Slow down. Get a medical check up. Strokes and shingles attack suddenly when you are overtired and stressed.
2. A question:
Do you think silver is a flash in the pan, or here to stay as a store of value?
Firstly, I want to say that I think your assessments are basically right on. The net of all of this being caused by as you mentioned in the beginning during the 50’s but then accelerated in the Regan years as the banking regulations were lifted in earnest. You would think that someone would have brains enough to realize that the lessons learned from the depression about the influence of the banks, borrowing, and leverage on the ecomomy is somthing that must be regulated – how short the human memory is.
There are a couple of things though that you have not addressed that I believe should be looked at more closely or at least explained to your clients in clearer terms. These have to do with what really drives the markets and why derivitives were created in the first place.
You haven’t mentioned the fact that Mutual Funds actually were created during the hay day of the 20’s boom and some people believe that they had a lot to do with the eventual collapse. The government has had to bail out more than a couple of Mutual Funds so far but their over all influence on the markets is still great. One of the main problems with these funds though is that they are so big they cannot enter and exit the markets without causing a great influence. The same is true of many hedge funds. In spite of the failure of many of these funds there are still many more out there managing huge sums of money.
Also, as you probably know the Mutual funds that qualify for IRA and ROTH and the like are regulated by the government. This means that what they can hold, the ratios they can hold these positions and how much they can buy and sell are all dictated by the government regulations. Although these regulations were put in place to protect the funds with a conservative guidance, in certain situations they will have a very negative impact on the fund construct which can force buys and sells at the wrong times. Just how much of an influence this is going to be will be interesting note and how many of these funds will the government attempt to save?
Even more important though is that fact that these kinds of funds are getting their money from retirement contributions and the like that are on going. Thus, the money continues to pour into these funds and hedge funds and it has to go somewhere – which is mandated – into the markets. It is this fact that has I believe has driven the markets up way beyond any reasonable measure of true company evalutation thus making the markets an unrealistic measure of any kind of economic performance.
In addition, so much money has poured into other forms of investments like hedge funds banks and investment houses from similar sources that they could not put the money in any kind of conventional investment like stocks and bonds because the amount of money they have available to invest would drastically affect the prices of the equity every time they try to by or sell. Thus, alternative investment forms had to be created that would work outside of the markets – derivitives and the like. If this trend continues with a thriving economy there will continue to be some kind of alternative investments that must be created to deal with this money – or the money has to be slowed down which is what tried to happen recently.
The fact that the goverment is actually subsidizing this situation is going to end up being a very big problem especially with the huge sums of money that are also being leveraged in these investments.
On the markets, I believe that for the most part they are determined by greed, fear, velocity, trends and money available. Greed fear and trend analysis drive the short term moves. In the current case fear drove the market down and now greed is driving it back up with the idea being sold that the worst is over – have the realities set in yet – no.
Velocity has to do with the fact that when the market moves very quickly either the exchanges will step in and slow it down or the gaps will make it untradable. At this point it will have to stop or pause for a while before continuing. There will also always be rebounds from any sharp decline. This is because there are a lot of profit takers on the side lines ready to pounce on these situations and there is enough money there to make the prices rise. If you look at the market in it’s current position it is in a “Stall” or horizontal. From this state it could go either direction but the most likely direction is going to be down or remain at this stalled position due to money input.
The money input is due to the fact that the Mutual Funds are still receiving billions of dollars of IRA money and the like and by their mandate they must put the money in the markets. They can only keep so much of the money in cash.
In the end, I also believe that we are not in exactly the same situation as we were during the great depression. It could be much worse or it could be much better. There is no doubt that the government policies over the last few years with regard to trying to sustain an economy that was failing on many fronts by printing more money is not a good thing and as per ECON 101 the end result could be severe inflation. This kind of inflation however usually is accompanied by virtual economic collapse where supplies are short and demand is high. Whether this is going to happen or not remains unseen.
Frankly, I am not surprised by the GM bankruptcy or the failure of the auto industry as a whole. Just like the airlines wages got out of hand and something has to happen to bring them back in line. It is too bad that the management didn’t see this on the wall but large companies tend to move like the government. Every major industry has had to go through this and will probably continue to go through this as long as the unions over step reality. And in fact the whole transportation industry has been going through this process and other industries will eventually have to do the same- could have been better timing though.
One of the other things about the banks and investment firms that is interesting is that they have taken their toxic assets and put them into separate holding companies that are not on the market. Then they only show the profits from their profitable operations. So, how are all of the continuing losses going to be absorbed? They have to end up draining someones pocket?
I am into currencies and short term trading. I don’t think any long term positions are advisable at this time.
Why is Claus not adding other countrys to our portfolio? Why so focused on the USA only? Examples: Canadian Minimg or Commodities, China, Indonisia, Brazil?
Greetings: Your expert advice and knowledge pertaining to the area of your expertease is very interesting reading. It’s distressing though, knowing that at last
America is now paying for all those sins committed as per it’s citizens screwing their
neighbors in the name of business as usual. I sincerely believe this latest war was
conceived under the guise of WMD for more business via oil and contractor political
appeal involvment. No doubt about it, war makes for business and Bush provided a
an opportunity at the right time by being in the right place. This also was helpful for
the sinking of the economy. I’m 77, retired, good income, good health. This is being rich. Love reading your stuff, keep up the good work. Hope your customers get rich.
Risk for me would be skydiving and I’m goint to delay that for a while.
Martin,
We have no choice in this matter. I do not have a specific solution to what we are facing, but I do know that we must prevail in what we believe to be the greatness of America. There is too much pent up emotion in this country at this time and as an entrepreneur I find that this is the time for a breakthru. I keep hearing about how brilliant the current administration is , but I be-
lieve they are ten bricks short of a full hod. They have overreached the authority that is theirs
constitutionally and we must use proper means to bring them back into the proper place for them.. I believe that selective recall elections could be employed to get the attention of members
of Congress and the Senate. I also would advocate use of the Internet as a communications venue, because we could spend billions in “ink” and end up with nothing. There are people who
know how to use cyberspace far more effectively than I , but they are the ones to bve led by
the “brains” that are going to lead us thru the Red Sea. I don’t know who our Moses is, but I am convinced he is out there and if we are truly a “nation under God” we will have Him to lead us in this battle for existence and rebuilding the land.
I am not one to suggest how someone else can do the job. I do recognize my limitations, but I sure am ready to put my shoulder to the wheel and make things “hot” for several of my “favorite” Congressmen and administration hacks.
Count me in for whereever i can do some good in this critical time in our history.
God bless you ,Martin.
George Foster
P.s. I live in Yuma, Az, and talk to many people everyday. Many of the Mexican population are
beginning to question what is happening to their future here. Quite a number of these people are illegal, but they know what is going on.
G
Buy Gold.
I think that our country is in deep financial trouble. To wit, we send nearly worthless paper to China in exchange for poisonous/defective products. Still, your advice has been useful to me personally. I really appreciate it.
Tom Senter
P.S. I am investing in oil, natural gas,gold,etc. I also followed your recommendations regarding long-term T bills and am happy with the results, thus far.
MARTIN THANKS FOR YOUR HELP OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. LAST YEAR I HAD A VERY
SMALL LOSS. MY INVESTMENT IN THE MARKET IS BUT A SMALL PART OF MY RETIREMENT
INCOME. I AM INVESTED IN DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS WITH CLOSE SELL STOPS. CANADA
OIL TRUST,ROYAL CANADA BANK,PFIZER,NORDIC AMERICAN TANKER,KENDER MORGAN,
ETF’S GDX,LQD, PFF,SDS,TBT,UDN ALL WITH CLOSE SELL STOPS. DOING GOOD. AM EVEN
FROM LAST YEAR. I AM A OLD GRAIN FARMER & HEDGER.STILL OWN THE FARM. NO DEBT
BUT I CANT AFFORED A LOSS . WHAT ABOUT INSURANCE CO.S THAT HOLD THE ANNUNITIES
I wish I could afford your service, but have 3 kids in college and all my money goes to them. I will buy gold if it pulls back soon. I won’t buy it at these toppy levels. What I am concentrating my wealth on is FAZ, TZA, SRS, etc. You get the picture. I’m like you and betting that this whole thing collapses like a house of cards! I use to be a Financial Advisor and left the business to the Wall Street cheats. I invest my own money and do well. You’re doing a great service for the retail investor; however, Obama and his cohorts will fail in the end and it will all collapse! Then I’ll make money like your Dad did in the Great Depression!
I’ve been reading a lot. Read your book as well. I’m not smart enough to figure this all out and I suspect I’ve read more than 99% of Americans. What is the safest way to diversify my assets? Gold, silver, foreign currencies or treasuries (like Canada, Australia or Euros) land?
I PRAY FOR OUR COUNTRY EVER DAY
Firstly, GM can reinvent itself with hydrogen powered/Electric cars. About 70% of vehicle trips are to and from the shops or to and from work. It is a big market and would reduce U.S. dependence on fosil fuels. The Japanese originally broke into the car market by copying other car manufacturers products. Maybe GM could re tool and re gain their strength once more. There is such a car already.
Well,
I never thought I would see this in my lifetime. I am 43 yrs old & I read everything I can get my hands on. I first started to track gold roughly 5 yrs. ago & have been a buyer of the Noble Metals for some time now. If you look at the chart that compares the Dollar to Gold since we were taken off of the gold std. it is a reverse trend. I made the conclusion that all currencies are worthless. I keep only enough cash to pay my bills. Other than that I do not put into 401K or IRA’s any longer. Who & what do you believe?
The sad fact is we did this to ourselves, we have transferred our wealth to China by buying their CHEAP products. I make it a point to purchase items made in the U.S.A or our allies. China IS NOT OUR ALLY!!!!!!!
The major problem we have is Politicians who think they know how to manage money. These people are pathetic.
May the Lord bless us all for what is coming. I wishh everyone who reads this Peace & Solace in the future. My hope is people have listened to Martin Weiss the man is sheer genius. I have been getting people I know charged up.
God Bless You All.
Greetings Martin
I have been a reader of your publications now for some time and I greatly appreciate what you have said and done. Your accuracy is relentless. Credit based economies do not work, lets go back to the gold standard.
Cheers
Martin,
What is going on in this country is so wrong. Government doesn’t nee to be in the
business of getting involved in the economy in running free market companies.
What is really unbelievable that this country has such an outdated system as to let someone elected to the Presidency of the USA can violate laws, and do whatever they
want with no checks. Political speaking, there needs to be a major change in protecting the legal people of this great country. We are living the history of the wiemer republic and can’t do a dam thing about it.
We see (only on Fox news channel) a country that is at the whim of the elected President who can do whatever he wants. His popular vote and the root of the character of this individual is to vote “present”. Why can’t there be something done
that can mitigate this redefining of America. What in the hell is going on. We have a political system that governs itself with no outside controls anymore. There is no balance in the three venues of government, the Executive branch, the judiciary branch, the stupid congressional idiots who get a life pension for a one term legacy.
That’s my story and I am sick of this arrogant attitude. There is no two party system anymore, the republicans are going in the same direction of the democrats, just at a slower speed.
I am so ticked off, I am signing off. How in the heck can a country not have better checks in place. We are becoming Venezuela and Chavez, what the heck is going on????
The progressive movement has finally gotten a hold in this great country and we have no alternatives. Vote for who? They are all in the same bucket.
Shovel ready my A*&. No manufacturing in the USA, ability to print money and devour the future generations.
I am done, blood is squirting out of my eyes and my tolerance for liberalism is somewhat non existence at this time. This country was built on make your way. Progressives have finally made their mark, too bad, we are heading towards socialism, next (aint going there), how in the hell has this country allowed itself to give up freedom and let some clown change this country all by itselft?
I don’t vote “present”, I vote “freedom”, no elite people who think they know what is good for the nation. How disgusting is this that this country has a system in place that someone can take over and change the country without even having to do it Militarily, Venezuela.
I am done, this is gross with no way to stop it. I will continue to vote that is all we have, needs to change. Bring manufacturing back to the USA, quit selling out, regain what made this country great!
Rory Roemmich
I am no financial expert but it seems to me the government wants our currancy to fail.
There are rumors it will be replaced by a new “world Currancy” based on what I don’t know. I think even if you are able to keep some gold and silver coins the government will confiscate them. A friend of mine was buying some gold coins and silver coins and the coin shop insisted on getting her license and address. They said they needed it because of the “Patriot” act. The people in the present government are radicals and hate private business. A friend who buys banks spoke with one of the Obama people who told him “We don’t want to make anymore millionares! Of course he was patient and reminded the women that ” You do not have anymore money”! Its hard to know what to do espeacially in this environment.
Sincerely
Chris T. Nuno
I liken the economic and political events of the last year to a NIGHTMARE. Hard to believe our nation has turned into a socialistic/fascistic entity and it appears there may be no way to stop it. Even Pravda/Russians are surprised at the speed at which our country has vered towards marxism.
In this anti-freedom/socialistic environment methinks anything can happen as the events of the last year have proven. IMO logic and common sense have been thrown out the window and most of us are scratching our heads wondering what in the world is happening.
It is my belief that the markets and our economy is in the process of being taken over by the state and therefore logicical investment strategies may not work as before. Good luck to all in surviving the coming storm.
Martin,
How do you feel about high yield (junk) bonds such as PIMCO high yield income fund managed by none other than Bill Gross himself?
Thanks.
I realize the gov’t. no longer publishes the M1,M2 & M3 statistics any longer but a rough estimate on my part as best I can discern it appears that the M3 money supply seems to be going down; while the M1 is rising rapidly. This at first seems a bit baffling in light of the craziness coming out of DC. If the M3 money supply is trully shrinking , we are heading head long into deflation it would seem to me. Thank you for any clarifacation that you can bring this possibility.
Martin,
Our current government is totally out of control and I am deeply concerned that the
fiscal damage and socialistic policies being created will never be able to be corrected.
I have been supporting your efforts in congress, however it appears to me that it is
falling on deaf ears. In order to cope with the deteriorating effect on the purchasing
power of my income my investments are being heavily weighted toward the precious
metal miners and commodities for the near term. Longer term I will be following Claus’s
comments in the million $ portfolio. Appreciate you sound advice and guidance.
Before a lamp goes out , it splutters and glows the brightest!. Likewise ,the US dollar will have a LAST hurrah before it is dramatically devalued .It may well be a one shot surprise! .So be prepared for a vicious US dollar rally that would render a defaltionary blow to all asset classes-except US treasury bonds. Like in Sept-Nov 2008 , the bonds will rally hard from here and go parabolic causing a global stock market collapse of a magnitude greater than what we have seen. Gold bullion may hold up for a while ,but,if asset liquidation turns horrendous resulting in margin calls ,gold may be sold off too.The gold equities will once again get crushed alongside the equity market.
First we will see defaltion take hold .And if the federal reserve begins bailing out US households like they did the banks , I will bet on a hyperinflationary outcome.Till then , US will be moving towards a socialistic-communist model wherein all critical production modes and services will be owned by the US Government. Goodbye capitalism,welcome communism.Once communism has been instated,the US can be handed on a platter to China for control and takeover.
I have a nagging question,Why doesnt anyone blame the rating agencies??? Moodys and Standard & Poors are the major cause of the sub-prime mess but they got away scott-free……..And one more question;If the US consumer has lost 20 trillion dollars in wealth over the last few years,then why cant the government just print that much money and not worry about inflation
Sir, So the questions are: How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
My feelings mean nothing. Your calculations are more important. You’ve made it clear for years and then carefully this year that more debt and fiat money is a death knell.
I’m a believer in owning physical goods rather than promises. In an economic collapse a promise to pay is nothing, and more trading thus creating more dollars from thin air only exacerbates the problems. IF I had money to invest I’d buy gold and silver, oil, food, COAL, pay for a modest house and keep it — pay it off — mortgages are dangerous. Be like the old world Italians. You don’t own it until you OWN it.
It’s very old fashioned but we’ve become so undisciplined about debt. And this false prosperity has ruined the entire moral core of this society. Prosperous people “spoil” children who grow up profoundly considering that they are the center of the universe. They are selfish, heartless, and without moral guidance. This “sea change” is far more than a money issue. It is an issue that will alter America forever.
Mark me, by the end of 2012 your life and your portfolio’s will be unimaginably alterned.
Thank you for letting us post our comments. I’m always happy to read your emails, because they don’t treat us like morons that the mainstream media think we are. Our government has been taken over by the Central Bankers & Wall Street, they are not even looking into what has happened that got us to this point, they are just reacting, poorly I might add. The incompetence is mind blowing. I have no money saved, no one in my life has a clue about money, politics or economics, even the economic books I have read were little help in waking me up to the massive fraud that our government and wall street is. We are all scrambling and the media keeps telling us that it will soon be over, hah. I think that it is going to get really bad, before people realize that it’s not going to get better.
What is going on in the USA today has been written about and planned for many years by the banksters and industrialists. They want to ruin the USA in order to gain control of it. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of International Settlements are key players, privately and family owned and controlled, entities. Congress is basically bought and paid for our have been compromised, so they will do he bidding of their paymasters. This includes the obamanation, which is in the White House.
Hello Martin,
First off I would like to thank you for your e-mails to me and thank you for sharing you
knowledge of economics and investing to the man in the street and average Americans.
I see a watershed coming upon the United States of America ==it is two rival groups
emerging // one is the private sector with the people who do the producing of food =
business = comerence and all things of everyday needs //and the other group which is
the Government sector [ which the bankers and the federal reserve who are =but more
bankers ] The government sector politicians live in a bubble world and most are mostly
parisites living off of the tax payers confisgated money ! Now there are some honest
politicians but very few with backbone and courage . But the people in government have I believe very little respect for the man on main street and some even gone over the edge to believe the government should control the people to their political agenda !
This is a very dangerous situation == They have ignored the constitutiion of our founding fathers == and if they do not reverse course this will teare this country apart = we are now in unchartered waters ! we all will be in a world of hurt !
Your emails to me are very appreciated. I’ve done a lot of research about our country and our precious earth. We have a few short years remaining to do good to others, help the weak, sick and needy, join together with willing neighbors, friends to help each other. Rampant marxism, totollarianism, brutality, enslavement, etc. will continue. All mighty GOD is the only help we’ll have to go through a complete Purification and cleansing of the planet, etc. “Behold I create a new heavens and a new earth wherein dwells righteousness”. While we enter this time of great troubles, changes, upheaval of earth turned on it’s side by the passing of Nibiru, the destroyer, let us practice love, prayers and expectation of a brand new Earth.
PREPARE TO SURVIVE is the message I get over and over. God’s richest blessings to you all. Lynne in TN
Hi Martin,
I am 51 and a small business owner in Pennsylvania. I have spent most of my adult life investing my time, efforts, and money in the things that I do. I have been extremely disturbed by investor attitude and thinking since the mid 90’s. I am a person who relies on very fundamental approach to everything in my life – my businesses, my home, my family, and my investments for retirement.
Because of the bubble market conditions that we have experienced and the lack of any fundamental thinking in the markets, I have remained mostly on the sidelines for the past several years. The current state of the economy and market rallies in the face of blatant bad news and fundamentals have led me to write on your blog. I just can’t make logical sense of much we are faced with today. I hate debt, but our modern economy is built on it. I have always believed that “you can’t borrow yourself into prosperity” but yet all of our policy makers seem hell bent on it.
I would love to be a part of a movement that would put us back on the right path – toward strength, sound financial thinking, a family oriented society, and a one-ness of pupose. Please let me know your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Greg Paul
Martin, we are in some deep poop. I believe that this is all by design and the insiders want to bring our once great and still great country down to the level of the third would countries. That is one reason that the southern border issue has never been dealt with. They want to erase all of the borders and have the Amero (like the Euro) printed up already so that when the North American Union is put in place, we will have one currency. Too many Americans are asleep–too much apathy.
I think the question of U.S. survival refers to U.S. economic dominance. All great empires eventually fall. Although no one can be certain about the timing of such an event, I believe it quite possible that we are now at a critical juncture that could indeed be the beginning of the end. Politicians repeatedly avoided attempting to fix social security, medicare, and healthcare during the last 25 years, and that in itself increases the likelihood of decent when the current crisis is compounded on this. As for question #2, rising interest rates and dollar printing will lead to stagnation of growth and dollar devaluation respectively, thereby potentially limiting labor income. With regard to question #3, as for investment themes going forward in the near to intermediate term, I believe gold will rally at least 30%, the dollar will continue to be pressured(commodity currencies are probably the best choice), and equities will continue to have significant rallies when hopeful fixes are falsely perceived, only to be followed by significant breaks when the true underlying fundamentals emerge. Anyone thinking they have a certain view of the long term is fooling themselves, I believe. For instance, almost everyone is expecting hyper-inflation because of money printing. But there is an example in the modern era when re-inflation attempts have failed in a large economy. Japan poured money into its system, yet never re-inflated its economy. Helicopter Ben must believe they didn’t pour enough in. History will decide if he is correct.
what do you recommend investing in this time in our countrys time of economic trials ?
Thank You for you time and and your staffs services
Elwood Jolly
Hello Dr Weiss and fellow readers/investors:
I would really hope that the US can pull itself out of the economic quagmire that it has gotten itself into but I don’t know how it can do it. You have way too much foreign debt and these countries could eventually be your new masters.
It is going to take generations to climb out from under the debtload you have made yourselves. There will be a day of reckoning. The only hope is that you “reinvent” yourselves. You still have a wealth of knowledge, workforce and the resources to make this happen.
Gone are the days of being the world’s policeman. This is costing you way too much to keep up and is a major part of your debt woes. You can thank Mr. Bush for that.
As an investor with most of my foreign portfolio being moved away from US holdings, I await the day that I can turn this around.
Good luck!
Dear Dr. weiss,
We have not educated the public in economics or money & banking thus Capitalism is now dead. What schools teach is not economics, it is close to socailism or at best keynesianism. Best example is Obama. I am sure he believes what he was taught, but why couldn’t he think beyond his political bias for the good of the Country. He has bankrupt this country by throwing all of his socialistic programs into what he called a stimulas package. Can’t stimulate the economy through the Macro side, has to come from the Micro side. No Micro, there can’t be Macro. I don’t think this mess can be corrected in time to change what is going to happen to this country. Better start learning Chinese or Manderine.
On the personal side, I can’t even get my house financed. have a 7yr fixed interest only loan and have tried to change that to a 30yr fixed, no one will touch it because I have good credit and haven’t missed any payments. We bailed them out!!!, Go figure?
In my opinion, GM did not just go bankrupt. It seems to have decided that its corporate future was best secured as a global enterprise. Accordingly, they built assembly plants in Russia, China and other locations around the globe with, some say, currency expropriated from pension and other funds thus leading to insolvency here in America. Do we see GM going bankrupt in Russia or China? The answer is no.
In addition to the general terrorist attack brought on by the croupiers of Wall Street (with their voodoo economics of CDS’s, derivatives and other sleazy financial engineering) and the Federal Reserve’s (it’s not federal, and they have NO reserves) fractional reserve Ponzi schemes…the UAW insisted over the years that GM pay outrageous wages and perks as a result of what was euphemistically called “collective bargaining.” The UAW nibbled at the edges of GM’s flagship enterprise here in America until it finally sank.
As far as one can tell the Russian and Chinese GM facilities are humming right along. The absolute bottom line is that, though somewhat inflationary, the Treasury Dept. should have given the ten thousand billion dollars (give or take a trillion) to the American people to spend on autos, homes and credit card payments. The banksters would have gotten their greedy hooks on it anyhow, but by adding one step to the so-called bailout the American people and economy and would have been helped.
Now, with all that fiat currency down the double dealing rat holes of corporate bonus greed we are seeing the true colors of the nepotistic/conflict of interest relationship between WDC and Wall Street….and the whole thing not subject to any SEC, judicial or legislative review…thanks Ben. We have purchased property on a certain island which will probably be the last place that the next false flag inspired martial law will be implemented. Come out of her before she is punished for her sins!
There can be no question that a treasury secretary who denies that his central bank and currency are in any trouble, is, indeed, a man covering up a truth that cannot be denied.
The US currency has been thrown under the bus of a Fed bereft of sanity, increasing its debt, and giving no consideration to the source of paying for the servicing of the debt or its repayment. There is also no recognition of the fact that there is insufficient money in the world to fund this government’s largess.
An economy is, after all, people exchanging things, services and financial instruments with each other. The Government is a middle man which creams off a commission from the commerce of others, and it (Government) is supposed to use the “cream” to fund projects which a free enterprise system cannot. It cannot “be” the economy, as Obama suggests.
The Government creates no commerce and does not build goods and services which make up the commerce of the economy. The spending promulgated by this administration will bankrupt the federal system and endanger those foolish enough to invest in government financial instruments and bonds. The spending plans will build nothing of tangible, fungible value. The bailout plans will place a pall of suspicion on every company that would try to float a new bond or stock issue, when the Government no longer respects the priority of a secured creditor.
The only intelligent means of rebuilding our economy and ultimately reducing our debt is to place spendable cash in the hands of consumers and business and let them do with that money what they always have, namely, build a great and prosperous economy.
For now, I am investing in the stocks of “creditor” nations, like Australia, real estate, oil, gas and coal, mining stocks or ETF’s and I will be slowly exiting all bonds, including municipals during this summer in anticipation of the inflation to come this fall. I expect another October surprise and it will be negative.
I think you guys at Weiss Research do a good job addressing things important to Americans. The problem with General Motors, outside of its debt is the cause of the debt, an outdated business model crumbled by large pension and healthcare obligations. While $5 Billion a year doesn’t seem all that high it eats away at free cash flow and the companies ability to pay down existing debt. I’ve spoken to 1,000 GM employees in my previous roles and I understand their concerns have now become reality. The deindustrialization of American started in the 50’s when we first started outsourcing jobs and we had a shift from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy. I believe we will see another great bull market and new innovations to fill the void left by GM, but people should be realistic with their time tables. Markets still have a great deal to work through, specifically the coming earnings season.
I don’t see how we can live with Obama’s reckless spending. Why would the equity market improve under these irresponsible stimulus spending?
I live off interest on high yield bonds, and not sure about these compainies to survive either. Dean here. What think you?
I appreciate the work you’re doing to help us understand what is happening around us. Based on your recent posts, I thought sure the GM bankruptcy would “sink the economy,” to use your phrase. Lo an behold, the day of the GM bankruptcy, the stock market doesn’t blink. It fastens on the Chinese manufacturing index instead. The orderliness of the auto industry bankruptcy process, and the lead up in general over the last few months, seemed to make the bankruptcies a non-event for the market at least for now. So, it appears on the surface that we didn’t sink, yet. Last year, last fall, we flat out sank. Maybe it’s less stressful if your big business sinks in an orderly well publicized way. Thanks for your hard work keeping us appraised of the present while the market seems to be looking way in the future…??? Let us know if we sank or not. The disparities between the apparent fundamental situation and the market response are incomprehensible to me. I don’t get it. There also seems to be a disparity over what is happening in bonds: you are seeing vigilantes dumping treasury bonds and Bloomberg is reporting the Fed sees a 3% net gain in treasury purchases in May? Hoo boy.
What have we learned in 2,063 years?? “The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.” – Cicero – 55 BC
Whoever came up with the saying ” history repeats itself “, nailed it. The sad part of the equation is that there are so many people out there who do not want to hear that things are bad and going to get worse. If you think that the dollar is going to collapse (given the amount of money we are printing); stock up on food and all essential needs. People who are concerned about their portfolio or 401K might want to reconsider things. What can happen to food and essential supplies if there is a currency collapse, fuel disruption or power disruption? For those who think that may not happen, you probably thought Martin was wrong about GM going bankrupt. Optimistically, an alterantive way of looking at food and supplies is they are insurance against any one of those catastrophes.
Additionally, convert spare cash into strong foriegn currency… pick one or more. Just look at the chart for the dollar verses the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Euro, Pound or Canadian Dollar. Most of them will end up being stronger than our dollar in the world market. Really, we are printing TRILLIONS of dollars and still people in America think it will hold its value!!! Comparatively, when Geithner told a group of Chinese students “Chinese assets are very safe,” the audience laughed loudly at Geithner.
Instead of worrying about your portfolio or 401K, worry about your family and friends and their wellbeing. Like the person before me wrote…AMERICA, WAKE UP!!!
I think the U.S. is about in the same position that the British Empire was near the end of World War 1. I think we may have reached our zenith and will slowly give away to
a power that is more hungry to become dominant. This has happened in the past and will continue in the future. As far as I am concerned, I expect to see very little change in the balance of my lifetime as I am 95 years of age.
This may seem heresy to many people, but I am convinceda that religion has been
responsible for much of wars over the ages. If one looks at the Bible, and really studies it, He will see that it is the original Grimm’s Fairy Tale. It falls apart when
it mentions Cane and Abel get married. If Adam and Eve and Cain and Abel wire the first humans, where did Cain’s and Abel’s wives come from. Sly operators early got gullible people to make live sacrifices of animals etc. so they would not have to grub for food, and devekoped tithing. It is true that religion has done some good things but it is miniscule to the antagonism it has caused.
I think it is the time to buy precious metals However I do Not see a silver lining for the dark cloud that is coming it is Not Spring rain It will be PURE ACID RAIN that will burn holes in even the safest houses We Will have run away inflation and WE WILL HAVE FOOD LINES and soup kitchens and everything that goes with it,You see I am an ex-mortgage broker I saw this trouble back in 2006 and now I am a asset manager who does a lot of foreclosure business and most of the stuff we get out of the trash outs we take to auctions and Guess what a year ago you could make good money at an auction sometimes a few thousand dollars for the stuff I would sell…. Now the same batch of stuff we only get a few hundred dollars, Why Because Nobody has any money and the main reason seems to stem back to last years 5 dollars a gallon, people are only now just getting caught up with the fuel bills one of my friends owns Highhouse Oil Co (Bobby) and he showed a pile of accounts that are over 120 -180 days behind its no joke and now wait until October …. My predictions were as follows 2008-the summer of denial….2009 the summer of tears and fears…..2010 the summer of civil and social unrest and mass mayhiem…Not to mention the other things that I have talked about.
I have followed the trades in the portfolio. However, I was not thrilled about adding AAN & First Dollar. I did not really want to get into picking individual stocks. Again, I pulled the trigger and followed the recommendation.
As for thoughts on investments, I think we should be more heavily weighted in gold. I have purchased physical gold separately. What about some currency trades? If you are so certain there will be devaluation of the dollar, is there some way to play this without being too reckless? Also, I would have liked to see a play in oil since I think that is on the way back up.
Finally, I DO NOT WANT TO GET OUT IF THE MARKET RALLIES! I own a very large consumer bankruptcy law firm in Las Vegas. Every day, I see first hand the impact of the current economic circumstances. I have front row seats to the carnage. I am overwhelmingly certain that there is no economic recovery in site. Consumers are tapped out, foreclosures will crush the banks, and the market will eventually capitulate. I want to double up on positions if the DOW hits 9500 in this rally. I will not get out. I will keep buying more of the ETF positions.
Dr. Weiss~ 4 and a half month’s ago, (It’s June 2nd,09) I began to turn my money into true liquidity by initiating the cashing out of the checking and “money market” account’s at the 4 bank’s that I had spread these monie’s out at, before the FDIC increase to $250,000.00, to make sure they were all covered and it has been a difficult endeavor. Told at the first bank that I couldn’t do that, that I would have to accept $10,000.00 in cash and the rest in a cashier check or have it electronically transferred to another account. I offered to pay a fee for the purchase of the money and the salary of the employee’s who had to spend “all that time counting it”, since this seemed to be a major problem. After politely asking every 2 week’s or so, the ladie’s , (1)cashier/teller~~front end manager and (2) the CEO’s right hand assistant quietly ordered the money and made arrangment’s with me when to come in and pick up my money. The other 3 were not as hard but there was resistance and “You can’t do that” all the way.
Martin , Your messages to me are right on the money , I and most people I know follow the Markets on a regular basis just watching the manipulators push the Dow up up up , for NO APPARENT GOOD REASONiING , with all the bad debt that is being created ,just printing money hand over fist , what are we passing on to the future , more & bigger debt . Why would anyone with any foresite buy into the Stock Market , The Markets are controlled & It’s there CASINO , it has been severely manipulated even a novice can see that . Any one with resonable intellegence stays out , It’s just unbelievable what sheer GREED has done to our Markets it’s NO LONGER LEGITIMATE & the average person that I know is staying clear of investing in the Markets . BUT, yet the DOW goes UP, UP, UP in spite of all the sourrounding terrible economic debt and most Corporations struggling to stay alive. BS is the only thing they have to sell in the Markets & the Media keeps pounding away , every day .So Sad . Thanks for your daily reports . Anthony.
I continue to stay in my Fidelity ‘Oil Services’ holding for these reasons: 1. It is not tied to any country, but is a universal position. 2: The demand for the product is probably beyond the whims of any politician, as moving people to mass transit and bicycles will not be popular. 3. This commodity cannot be made obsolete by any politician’s fiat as all fuel substitutes will act like Ethanol has: The reality is beyond the complexity of the politicians’ to understand until it fails. Obama’s fear of the word ‘nuclear’ means that carbon-free electrical power is soon destined to be a cause of riots.
As explained in my book “American Refugee” nothing new is happening in terms of world history. The USA is exactly where Rome was in 400AD. The govt mechanism has never been reversed that’s why all those famous civilizations went extinct. Policies are set by the lowest common denominator so the more idiots that vote the more idiotic policies become.
I’m inquiring about government backed Gennie Mae Bonds. Is this a safe place to put your money. My understanding is their yield is higher then Treasury Bonds and are 100% government backed. Would appreciate some input.
Thanks
Doug A
My husband works for the Federal Government. We have our retirement the the Thrift Savings Plan. We had moved it all to the G fund. This is short-term U.S, Treasury securities specially issued to the TSP. Payment of principal and interest is guaranteed by the U.S. Governmant. Thus, ther is no “credit risk.” Now, with all the talk of inflation not to mention the crap our government is pulling with the banks, GM, Wall Street etc. What are we to do. This is terrifing. We have 6 years to retirement and can’t afford to lose any more money to the crooks. We do not even have to option of taking it out and putting it safely in the bank. Don’t even know if the bank is safe. If you know anything about the TSP could you please help us and others by telling us which is the safest way to go. We have stopped contributing past what the government matches. Should we be buying gold?? Help!!
gold silver oil currencies, short or bearish etf’s.i have participated in this suckers rally i think your contrarian views are spot on but were not there quite yet there is probably upside to the soon to be artificially inflated dowwith cisco $travelers to aprox. 12000.i am in long out of the money calls in silver and gold and select junior and midsize miners. i am salivating @the incredible oppurtunities the market is never right or wrong it just”is”, cheers david
What does it matter if a man gains the whole world but forfeits his soul?
President Obama, with the help of the Democratic Congress is driving a financial dagger into the heart of America. This could result in the failure of the economic system. It has been said that when free societies fail they are usually replaced by a dictatorial system. If the present policies result in rioting in the streets, the president could call out the National Guard and establish martial law. If the military complies he would become a virtual dictator. Please tell me that this is not his plan and that it could not happen in America.
Not only am I convinced this country will not survive. I am positively persuaded that it DOES NOT deserve to survive. This country has taken greed, viciousness, callousness and cruelty to vertiginous heights. Corporate greed and the medical establishment of which I am part, are only but two examples. I am deeply ashamed of being an American citizen, and after the zenith of mongoloid reasoning Bush and his demented goals, this country deserves no respect and no help from anyone. All my investments and all my help as a physician and as a humanist go outside this country.
I am really scared to spend any money that I have left. My mother moved in with us after she sold her house for $80,000. My father worked in the meat packing house and took care of us eight children. I put her money in C’D’s. And while I was out of town the broker that had my husbunds retirement talked my husbund into putting an 87 year old women money in the stock market. That was last June. I was furious because my parents never ever were in the stock market. Plus I didn’t gives the broker my permission. When the papers came to sign them I was angry at the broker and my husbund. The broker said, “it was a good time to be in stocks. She lost it all in September. I am so sickend for her! All my dad’s earnings gone. He would roll over in his grave! I pray every night for my mom. I feel like she was raped!!
I’m sorry I’m going on but it is hard to know what to do when you have very little left.
I wish I had known about you sooner.
The retirement we lost is one thing, but my mother, who was NEVER in stocks but 3 short months is so heart-wrenching!!!
I look at her and want to cry. She gets very little social security.
God willing I will take care of her.
I pray for you and your staff during these difficult times.
God bless
Martn,
In my opinion, the answers to your questions are following:
Will America survive? Of course! America survived Great Depression, won 2nd World War over evil of Hitler, beat Russians in the moon race and cold war and will get out of this mess as well. Like Ronald Reagan emerged after weak Carter, another strong leader will come after Obama and will return America to its roots, hard work, ingenuity, honesty and pioneer spirit.
How will high interest rates and money printing affect my income? It will give me an opportunity to get some high yielding bonds when they finally bottom out like in 1982. High interest rates will eventually stop gold bull market. I hope that you will help us to pick the time.
Which investments near term? It is too late for me to pick the stocks, I have just retired and will need some income producing investments. I would think to stay in the safe cash with most of my savings right now, part in US dollars, part in Canadian dollars, about 15 to 20% in gold (GLD plus gold mining stocks or mutual funds). I bought some DOG at your advice in Safe Money Report (am hurting on it right now), also some TBT (this should be fundamentaly correct but how to handle frequent gov’t interventions in this market?). Thinking of getting some FXI to offset my DOG but need a little market pull back for that. I am fundamentaly in agreement with your overall philosophy and will follow your advice in Safe Money portfolio, somewhat modified to my limitations.
Regards,
Anthony.
You are swimming upstream against a torrent of contrary market opinions. The gurus are chortling about a new bull market. What is it that makes you so confident your are correct? i have read the case you make in your letters, but it doesn’t seem to be relevant.
I feel the rising interest rates will put housing in a worse situation than it already is.
It was my understanding of government; that paper money matched the gold in the reserves. I don’t feel that is the case now and things could get worse for a lot of people.
My contrarian portfolio is about break-even right now (thanks mostly to the gold plays) so I don’t feel too bad about having strong etfs in place against a sudden race for the bottom by the big boys. These guys are right, we won’t see it coming because they are all setting us up for an ambush. I see it as cheap insurance, not a chance to profit but a hedge against more disaster. When you live in tornado alley you learn to appreciate insurance against losing what you have even more than a chance to get rich. My grandfather said that during the last depression he had no cash but thanked the lord he could raise food and feed his family, which was more than the city people could do. We just finished canning the Feb – May crop and are replanting for Jun – August. After solarizing the soil we will put in the Sept – Dec winter crop. If you don’t know what I am talking about, you might want to learn more about it. Also how to raise your own seedlings: there were almost no slips and plants available this year, it will get worse. If nothing bad comes, if Weiss is all wrong and the storm clears magically, you still will have a garage full of food and fertilizer that is worth more than you paid for it. You will also be able to avoid salmonella and be healthier. I am not telling anyone to do what I do, we all have to make up our own minds, but you might want to buy some protection too. The people who put this administration in power are not big on respecting the right of other people to keep the fruits of their labors.
What on God Earth is going on here???!!! I’m really enraged! Why is dickhead cheney, mouthin off on President Obama? Is he the cause of this loss of jobs, inflation, high gas prices, the overpriced housing market, of the early 2000, did he send his secretary of state to the U.N, to prove a basis for an Iraq-U.S war with a vial of anthrax, & some misleading arabic conversations that WMD’s are being moved around, & hidden?! Did he focus on fear of the american people with misleading color alerts, & terror imminent plots against america? Did President Obama, neglect the economy, to pursue his own war ego, for the “sea of oil” that, he once said that Iraq sits on? Did President Obama let bin laden get away, using some quirky nothern alliance with a handful of Special Ops, & the airforce? The answer is a big NO!!!!!!!!!! This Gentleman (President Obama) means amerikkka well! Keep knocking the man. It seems rather apparent, that not only dickhead cheney, wants President Obama to fail, BUT TO SET HIM UP TO BE ASSASINATED!! (cheney you creep!)
In 1972 I was privliged to visit the Hiroshima factory of our joint-venture partner Nihon Seikosho, who were allied with Mazda Motors as well. What they showed me was truly amazing: a multi-hundred-ton sheet-metal press about four stories high and, when loaded with pre-cut steel, could stamp out an entire cab and fenders for a normal-sized pickup truck! Nobody else in the world had that capability in 1972. I immediately recognized the labor-saving ability of that technique but was sworn not to relate the details at that time which I did not. I’m sure the American auto/truck manufacturers became aware of that technology in short order but also had their hands tied by union contracts which prevented them from taking advantage of it! It is my contention that that is just one example of how the weakness of American industry has grown over the years until today a fine company, General Motors, has been ‘done in’ by lousy legal steps which have tied their hands over the years and prevented them from modernizing their products and production to the point of abject failure.
So, stop remonstrating about how highly paid management caused the failures… it was the fault of the government which has been moving ever closer to totalitarian Socialism and screwing up our free economic model of how to properly run an efficient economy and don’t weep for the ‘poor, poor’ workers who have unfairly collected more than they deserve for way too long. It’s sort of analagous to the theives in the banks who made an infinite number of imprudent judgements about loans and what characteristics were required to approve loans. Specially, the loans issued to immigrants, both legal and illegal, under the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) mainly sponsored by BofA from 1996 through 2000 and then suddenly cut off to cover-up the audit trails which would have led to prosecution of the executives behind the BofA program. And, to cap the entire program, all of the CRA team was summarily laid off and then the president and chief of the BOD retired with a severence pay of $110 million! Neat, clean and tidy, no?
So, now you want to blame it all on the Ken Lewis’ and others who stepped in to cover for the ones who did the dirty deeds? Sorry, but your anger is once again misplaced. The real culprits are long gone with their undeserved bank balances and no time to serve in jail.
My point… our snail-paced government and its regulators are always too late to place the blame where it belongs but, we the people cannot escape the unfairness of galloping inflation and unreasonable taxation… listen to Martin Weiss… he knows the truth but probably meet his demise if he ever told you what he really knows about whom is really responsible for our great national failure.
Dave W.
THEY SAY SEEING IS BELIEVING…I SEE IT BUT STILL FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THE GOVERMENT HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF BIG BUSINESS;THE BANKING INDUSTRY;THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY;SOON THE HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY;NOW WEILDING TREMONDOUS CONTROL OVER SOME MUCH OF OUR ECONEMY IN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND OUR AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE BECOMING A THING OF THE PAST AND WHAT IS SO SHOCKING IS A CONGRESS SO FISCALLY IRRESPONSIBLE STUPID
I think our country did it’s self a huge mistake when Obama was elected President of the USA. I did not vote for him as an Indepentant voter. And I had a father who was on the Joint Chiefs of Staff when Eisenhower was President. He called Nixon a crook during a Staff Meeting and my mother’s pension went up when he was purgured out of office. The Navy never forgets.
I wish this country would wake up and and do the same to Obama before he causes this country to destroy it’s self. He set out to do just that before he was elected.
I came to US 24 years ago, leaving Eastern Europe socialist country. I worked nere for a relatively very good money in Detroit ( not auto ).
I went thru all the changes in post-war comunism in my former country. Money reform, e.g. change of currency, when the paper becomes the really paper and the money in the bank “dissapear”. They just printed new, differently looking money and everybody had to start from scrach. My parent’s money ( 800,000) were recalculated in ratio of 1:5,000 and it really ment nothing. We had to wait for my father’s paycheck, but government was so “nice”, every family got little bit of the new money right away, so everybody could buy milk and bread. They let my parents to keep a summer house, but they put in it tenants. The tenants were displaced farmers, who’s property was confiscated. In their farm, they estabilished a co-op. They susceeded for years, since they just got a well cared for farm with all machinery etc.
Obviously the prospect of socialism in this country does’t exite me. But from my point of view, there has to be a balance in the word. America was far better off then the rest of the word. People were for generations protected by government, so they trust it. They also forgot, how to think independently. And that’s the way, how the enemy got in. Rich country, like USA, should be on instant alert for somebody, who wants ithe money, too! It should be continuesly protecting itself. But this interfere with the constituion, if it is done the way, how let say Saddam did in his country. Maybe it could be done by better education…I think too late now.
I think, that now is the time, when the wellness “be spread”, but in the all world!
I think there are ways, how to protect some investments and I’m hoping, Martin, that you’re on the right track!
Wishing you the best!
I think all bets are off, we are in totally uncharted waters here, any pretense that
the folks in DC really know what the outcome will be is just that a pretense, they really
don’t know. The only way I can see the US being able to payback this debt is to gradually
inflate their way out coupled with and increase in income taxes. Both must occur, it can’t be done with taxes alone as that will cripple any possible recovery, and if they try to only inflate their way out of it, the debt buyers(China), will put the breaks on further purchases & the party
will be over. This all could have been prevented, enormous levels of greed and shear stupidity on the part of those that are supposed to know better were at the root of it all. Unfortunately Joe American will be footing the bill for this. If they hang together possibly TIPS could provide some hedge against the inflation. Martin, tell us what you think of the relative safety of TIPS?
Put some gold in your portfolio as a safety net.
What do you predict will happen next?
I just need to not lose money on dollars and make a decent interest rate. I just turned 67.
Thanks.
I’m 77. Born in the depths of the depression. Last of six. Worked my way thru UNC with a wife and child. PHI BETA KAPPA. Did it all according to the book. Officer in the USAF. CPA with a large regional firm. Thought I knew all there was to know about finance. I’m baffled. Followed Mike’s advice from summer of ‘07 till now. Lost lots of money. Gov’t intervention turned the world upside down. Followed your advice. The only thing that worked was to cash everything in. Followed Claus’s advice. Lost on Sef and Psq. Recouped somewhat on GLD and mining.
It seems that nothing works. I think that we could quite well suffer hyper inflation. When the kids in China laughed at the Secy. of Treasury, that was the death nell. Where do we go from here?
Sorry I can’t help. I guess born in the depression, probably will die in the depression. At least I will have gone full circle.
My deepest regret is what will happen to my offspring and theirs.
The takers have overtaken the providers. The last laugh will be on them.
I appreciate your advice and have allocated part of my investment funds to the Contrarian Portfolio. However, I haven’t given up on other advisors. Even though the markets are confusing and times are tough, we can either sit in a corner and wimper or jump in with both feet and take the ride of a lifetime. This past couple of weeks have been incredible – my trading account is up more than 25% in two weeks. Investments in precious metals, oil, and Ford stocks and options have gone up significantly and I am glad that I didn’t sell everything when I signed up for your program. I hope I can use multiple points of view to make the best of a crazy time.
Praying direction for myself, for our leaders and for the USA,
Carol
I AGREE WITH LINDA. YOU HAVE BEEN IN BEAR MODE, REMARKING THAT THE DOW WILL DROP TO 5500. I HAVE ALL OF THESE INVERSE ETF’S THAT YOU SUGGESTED AND THEY HAVE DROPPED BADLY. YOU HAVE TALKED GLOOM AND DOOM. I DO NOT KNOW WHAT TO DO ABOUT THESE ETF’S. SELL KNOW AND TAKE MY HUGE LOSS OR SIT ON THEM. YOU SAID TO SELL ALL STOCKS. IF I WOULD HAVE BOUGHT STOCKS WHEN THE DOW WAS AT ITS LOW, I WOULD BE IN GREAT SHAPE. WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO.
Amazing how people are using this blog to try and advance mis-guided political agendas.
The current adminstration did not create the mess we have now. If you’re looking for whom to blame look to the previous 8 years of GOP for that.
Obama finds himself in the position of trying to find a solution for the problem he inherited. And there is no easy solution. No matter what he does it will not be pretty. They have tried to delay and easy the pain by spreading the pain across everybody and future generations. Probably not the best solution. The other choice was to truly let the ones that caused the problem pay for the solution. ie the high priced bankers and financial institutions that made (and continue to make) millions on gambling and scams with our money. However, this path would also inflict pain across everybody and future generations.
As far as investing, what would be good for this blog to concentrate on is what is going to provide the best opportunity to grow our money based on the fact that we are already on this path created over decades and which can’t be changed at this point. The timing is also critical as the markets have up to this point ignored the reality and have continued to rise higher. So being right about the facts is OK, but it’s more important to deal with the reality that up to this point the markets have not cared about reality. When will the current rally end?
Here is my attempt to answer your questions directly.
How do YOU feel rising interest rates and record-shattering money-printing will impact your income and investments in the weeks ahead?
OK… Things go up and they go down, but never just one way. By the time we start to discuss heavily the direction of interest rates for example, it is probably time for the direction to change. I’m probably missing something on the money printing issue, but I just see this as a non-event. Just because the banks have mountains of cash doesn’t mean anyone is going to loan or borrow it or is everyone getting a huge raise and how are we going to spend all that extra cash and on what — a GM car? I see money velocity slowing and deflation encroaching (in spite of short-term commodities run ups). My investments: long the markets short-term (maybe a couple of months), and then way short (except for the comparitively short rallys) the better part of several years.
Which investments do you expect to spin off substantial profits next? Select U.S. stocks? Foreign stocks? Currencies? Precious metals?
OK… repeat the markets comments above, Foreign markets are all pretty much one market, so I believe they will all begin to tank in ernest relatively soon. We are still in the middle of a deflation that is orders of magnitude stronger than all governments combined, so I see commodities continuing downward as this bear market rally turns back downward. The Dollar is still the reserve currency (like it or not), so I see it strengthing as time goes on. Just my opinions. Thanks, Dana
The expected inflation will drive up the price of all precious metals. I believe holding the metals and buying them is the key to holding on to value and increasing it. Real Estate is also a good investment now. I prefer to find notes (mortgages) to purchase at a discount now on nice properties. They are easy to resell to an investor. Have you any to sell? Please let people know about me. See my website! I can get cash for them now! Let them invest it in your “futures.” Perhaps I can do the same! I am also a Collection Manager for a small , well run Bank. I can see the big picture and feel the pulse of my customers, most of them actually like me. I treat people with problems as I would like to be treated with the same circumstances. I hope you can help a lot of people with your advice.
I like many of your followers respect your oppinions and well find it interesting following your downcast oppinions of all that is coming.You are obviously a very focased group of people. It would be nice if you could stear your conversations to resolve senarios a little more. I sometimes think although you are correct you loose yourself in your own words.
Repartition is I suppose is important to translate your message to so many of us who quite honestly look at what your saying with our mouths wide open. It is interesting living in South Korea, everything appears to be behind by 6 months. I no this creates opportunity but not sure how.
Oliver
Hi Martin,
How far can this rally go? S&P broke through 200 day moving average. There is a lot of optimism about the Dow going to 10000. Economies around the world are seeing better economic data. Does this rally still have legs? Is a correction for the markets still a long way away?
appreciate any comments
if america goes god help the rest of the world i dont think that will happen the world will see to that. a tip for you that you might make some money on try TULLOW OIL PLC a small irish oil company rated by me as a 5star. also try nighthawkenergy a small oil company
Will America survive?? USDX today is at 78.54, Gold at 984.40 spot price, bonds are tanking,
the Euro is $1.43 and Obama said the government is out of money. There must be a lot of money people who don’t think so.
I really don’t have high expectations for the outcome of these several crisises. It seems to me right now there’s too many people, a lot with better educations than I, that subscribe to this idiotic spending binge by our fed government. I have relatives(wish I didn’t) that buy into this hogwash, hook, line & sinker. I honestly don’t see how we can re-eduate at least 3 generations of people(yes, some are my age & older)about financial responsibility. I didn’t vote for that power mad social engineer, but me & a few others have to live with this ego-maniac.
Our government has tried spending it’s way out of trouble before, & it didn’t work then, & never will work. But so many people think that the money printing presses can run till the bearings are smoking.
My faith in our national leadership has gone out the window, & if I had the rescources I would invest only in non-union companies, with a good market share, & p/e ratio..Everett
I HAVE JUST SUBSCRIBED TO THE MM$ PORTFOLIO. MY WIFE AND I HAVE JUST RETIRED FROM OWNING AND OPERATING A 5000 ACRE CORN AND SOYA OPERATION IN SE MN. I AM QUICKLY CHANGING MY PERSPECTIVE ON HOW OUR FOOD PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WILL HAVE TO LOOK LIKE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON ABUNDANT SUPPLIES OF CHEAP OIL. I HAVE JUST READ “THE LONG EMERGENCY” BY JAMES KUNSTLER, AND JUST HOPE THAT THE CRISIS HE PROJECTS CAN BE AVOIDED. I FEAR IT CANNOT. CAN WE HAVE SOME DIALOG WITH OTHERS WHO HAVE READ THIS BOOK. I THINK MOST PEOPLE, INCLUDING OUR LEADERS, HAVE THEIR HEAD IN THE SAND, AND WE WILL NEED CONTRIAN IDEAS TO BE SURVIVORS BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND PHYSICALLY. PLEASE READ THE BOOK AND RESPOND WITH YOUR THOUGHTS.
JIM I
A great American Mormon pioneer, Brigham Young once said: “The day will come
when a bushell of wheat will be worth more than a bushell of gold.” Although this
may seem a long way off, we thought the financial crises we are in now was also a
long way off, I believe anyone who expounds staying out of debt or getting out
of debt, having a measure of prepardness, learning how to grow food and preparing
for any kind of eventuality will weather the future storm of hard times which will
surely come.
I am grateful for the honest advice that you and all your talented staff provide each week. Keep it coming! If I had not lost most of my money during the last 12 months, I would be more active , especially in your million dollar subscription. We live in hopes, and my portfolio is progressin cautiously at the moment
One thing puzzles me, though. I bought SRS(extra short real estate) at the peak in July, 2007. It has gradually declined since that time, even though real estate has tanked. I was under the impression that this ETF would increase in value as real estate declined.
I would appreciate your information on this ETF. Are the fund managers incompetent, or am I wrong to expect SRS to appreciate in value.
Regards,
enjoy reading your e-mails and you have been right on so fare. how do I see it ? when we humanbeings think we are in control and we are our own gods then we will find out that we are under God’s judgement. it is all recorded in the word the (bible) just what happened to the humans in the past who turned away from our creator and tried to control our own destiny. do not know how you believe, we believers do not haft to worry he promises his kids will not beg for bread our need’s will be met.
As sad as it is to admit, we will not survive. It started with Nixon taking us off the gold standard and opening our trade to China. He was hellbent on that.
The insane “growth” of our country and it’s businesses is the downfall of what was once a model of democracy…and that society has been destroyed by greed, corruption, and the demise of humanity in our value system.
Remember the bucolic days of the Eisenhower “recession” a fond memory compared to the mess our politicians and corporations have created.
Thanks for your interest in my opinion Martin.You ask which sectors of the market will show substatial profits soon. I believe we will see this in gold mining stocks, silver miners and oil producers. Commodities will likely move upwards a lot also.
It apppears that inflation is striking now too, with the first area hit being the stock market as surplus cash generated by the stupid Federal Reserve (SLR) begins to flood in to the market, as well as precious metals and other commodities.
However lets bear in mind that the SLR may arrange to turn against the market and drive it down so that money will swarm back in to the US dollar out of fear.
What a mess when government agencies start trying to manipulate the market and the economy. It seems the more they manipulate the larger the underlying problem becomes.
regards
George
Martin, I appreciate your courage in showing us what will happen, but market timing is critical and the recent rally has broke me. You guys will eventually be right but you missed the boat on this bear market rally. Remember everyone is eventually right, about everything. But when investing , timing is critical in being right. You guys are months late in predicting a further market down turn. and it has cost me dearly.Eventually you will be right BUT WHEN???
I am in a state of confusion. I am positioned for some kind of pullback in the market, but I have my doubts. How long can this surge in the market last? No amount of bad news seems to have an effect. I am certain I will feel a reality check if it happens. What I want to know is “if” and “when”?
ok..you asked for my opinion, here it is.
I was an early supporter for Obama. I was horribly disappointed that he chose, when elected, to shaft Howard Dean, head of the DNC, and whose great idea, the fifty state strategy, WORKED. Were it not for Howard Dean, Obama would not now be president.
Obama immediately welcomed the Clinton Trojan Horse into his camp, with all their followers included. The same folks who brought us the first of the financial disasters, were back ( where is the CHANGE Obama spoke of, anybody found it yet? Obama welcomes the Clintons and their Clintonistas: Robert Rubin, Summers, Rahm Emanuel, heaven help us. Clinton/Rubin did away with the Glass- Steagall act when Clinton was president…. why hasn’t Obama re-instated it? That would have done a lot to stem the tide of greed and corruption we are forced to deal iwth and observe day to day now to our loathing and disgust. That ACt back on the books, would have kept the investment banks and the other banks apart, separate entities, like they ought to be. The hedge funders could then go look for an honest job.
GM brought a lot of what is happening to it, onto itself. Creating Hummers, SUV’s, etc.,more luxury sedans, when the rest of the world is scrambling to have energy efficient transportation. Can’t blame this on the government. Blame the CEO’s of GM and their shortsighted stupidity, throw in their cupidity as well.
But, what is this I hear about Robert Rubin and his buddies going after the pension funds of GM to get the workers’ money to pay back the CEOs of Citibank and Morgan
billions of dollars? Is that true? And if it is, that would be illegal, wouldn’t it? Who in the hell is minding the store? And where is Obama? Off to Egypt. Why isn’t he home with a big broom sweeping out his cabinet and getting rid of the rot that is already creating a stench there?
I handle my own portfolio, which for me, is sizeable. I am cautious and conservative.
I purchased stocks that supply things we cannot live iwthout. Water, for instance.
I have a nice portfolio of water/utility stocks, and some insured municipal bonds.
I receive nice dividends, many TAX FREE.. So far, they’re not being cut.
I also like some communication stocks….and I bought a Fund which brings me 4.5 % monthly, and is TAX FREE. I buy preferred stocks rather than common stocks, generally speaking. There are exceptions.
I love tax frees….no money goes to the military for their bombs.
I can donate more to charity…..we need to save our oceans from the oil companies new thrusts into drilling all over the planet…depending on how careful they are, or how profligate, millions of lives of sea creatures, particularly the Cetaceans ( whales and dolphins) are at risk. We must take a position here and be activists. That is what I do.
I study hard, try to be as shrewd an observer of the political scene as I can ( always been active, I pounded on doors for John Kennedy)….and believe all of us
must do the best we can as good citizens to vote and act responsibly, even, and more importantly, when those charged with the responsibility of governing us ( and I don’t mean ruling, I mean governing) are falling down miserably on their jobs.
I support Howard Dean’s Democracy for America out of Burlington, VT.
Howard Dean is a great AMErican hero, and he is being treated like vermin by Obama and his ilk.
But Howard Dean will win out in the long run. And I will be there to support him in his plans for universal health care ( he would have been a fantastic choice for the Dept. of Health , Education and Welfare). I do not send any $$ to the DNC, now that Dean is gone from that position.
The Democrats are split…between the Democratic Leadership Council ( read that, SHILLS FOR BIG BUSINESS ) and the grass roots democrats like me and the other followers of Howard Dean.
We have the DLC’ers in the WHITE HOUSE, and I suggest that Obama had better watch his back before we have to bear the sad spectacle of seeing and hearing him utter to Summers, or Rubin, and their ilk, ” Et tu, Bruté??”
Thanks for all your words of hope and wisdom. Our economy is tanking, and I have no idea beyond today what is going to happen. I look forward to your sage words of advice.
Donna
Physical gold and silver are the best bets in my opinion. I think Silver is a real bargain at the current price. Other than that, my portfolio is in cash as of a few days ago. I think we are looking at another market crash soon, and Martin Weiss has called this mess correctly every step of the way. A special thanks to Mike Larson for helping me preserve my money. You guys warned everyone just before the big crash.
I agree with you Martin – This debt that Washington is laying on the American taxpayer is devastating!!! It must stop now – but how?? We need to start something like – SOS.
STOP OBAMA SPENDING!! SOS
So everybody says inflation is good for real estate holdings, but I am questioning that because technically inflation devalues the dollar. So if we have run away inflation, the value of the dollar and therefore its purchasing power is diminished right? Simultaneously, we have a collapse of the long term bond market and therefore subtantial increases in interest rates? Again, not good for real estate holdings because increased payments means less principal value. I have a 5-year arm coming due and I have the ability to convert it to a 30-year mortgage. But my rate will be higher by almost two points. I am guessing if inflation is coming I should just accept the increase and try and get the right to assign the loan even if the interest rate is 6.75%. That should be cheap down the road right? I can always pay down the loan as I earn chuncks of money. Help, your thoughts would be appreciated
QUESTION AND COMMENT
I HAVE BEEN BUYING DEC 2010 MINI SILVER CONTRACTS ON THE NYMEX. STARTED BUYING AT $9 AND THEY ARE CURRENTLY TRADING IN THE $16 RANGE. I HAVE A TOTAL OF $6,000 INVESTED AND OWN 5 CONTRACTS WITH AN AVERAAGE COST OF $11.50. THIS PROCESS IS EXPERIMENTAL FOR ME, BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PROCESS OF HEDGING CORN AND SOYA. I AM CONSIDERING PURCHASING A $15 DEC 2009 PUT FOR $1.21 TO PROTECT THE PROFITS I HAVE, AND THEN ROLL THE PUTS UP IF THE MARKET CONTINUES TO ADVANCE. MY GOAL IS TO HAVE 10,000 OZ OF SILVER, SO TO LIMIT MY EXPOSURE ON THE SECOND 5,000 OZ, I AM CONSIDERING PURCHASING A DEC 2009 $18 CALL FOR $1.08. AT SOME TIME I REALLY WANT THE PHYSICAL SILVER, AND COULD ROLL ALL MY CONTRACTS BACK TO THE CURRENT MONTH, AND TAKE DELIVERY BUT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PURCHASE ANYTHING WITH 66 POUND BLOCKS OF SILVER. WOULD PROBABLY BE BETTER OFF TAKING THE PAPER PROFITS AND BUYING 1,000 OZ BAGS OF JUNK SILVER ANY COMMENTS?
Do you think the dollar will soon be replaced by the Amero and the USA replaced with the N.A.U.? It seems to me as our leaders are supposed to be intelligent people then how could they not know the USA can not continue on this path??
I do not believe the problem can be fixed. I think that we are headed for a one world government with a one world currency. I do not know what is safe unless it be gold and silver etc. I pray the Lord returns soon because it appears we are losing our freedoms fast! What would you recommend to two 60 year old people. We have our real estate which is our home and one lot at a nearby lake. Our home and 20 acres has 5 separate cottages that we run as a Bed and Breakfast. We are barley able to stay afloat.
Thanks!
Very Very Concerned!
Kindly tell where is the best place to invest now.
Thanks
Dennis
I heard a good story today that kind of relates to Government and Banksters.
This traveller reaches a recession cratered town, he asks the hotel owner how much for a room, $100 a night responds the owner.
The visting traveller plunks down the $100 in cash, the owner gives him the key to the room and hotel owner takes the $100 to the butcher who he owes the $100 for past meat credit debt.
The butcher than takes the $100 to the baker who he owes money to and when the baker gets the $100 he is obligated to give it to a madame who he had pleasure with one night.
Well the Madame is in hawk with the hotel owner for using the hotel to entertain her clients and gives him the $100.00.
Then the traveller who was passing through decides that the hotel is not to his liking and asks for his $100 back and takes off.
IT SEEMS EVERY ONE GOT PAIDED OFF AND IS HAPPY WITH THE RESULTS!
silver is in a real bull phase and could have a long way to go. silver options could produce outstanding capital gains
I’ve purchased WalMart and Microsoft within the past year. Your recommendation of dollar store seems sound, but their return on equity and dividend was not mentioned.
I also bought GE at $13, thinking it was a steal, even though they have real estate problems, they have good income, good return on equity, and should not have to sell assets to survive. I also like that they are into wind generators, which will be a big money maker for them. I own Exxon and won’t sell it to raise cash because their oil finding ability is superior to all competitors and oil will be pricey. Although our oil consumption is going down they should be good for ten years or more.
I know you have been correct so far and believe you will be correct about this being a very bad depression. But, I think American capitalism will survive, I just hope we learn something, capitalism and a republican form of democracy really work well together, very efficient and responsive. I’m with you in that I think we’re in for a tough ride the next six years or so, but optimistic about the long term. We do need to reform our political system, however, to eliminate bribery of elected officials through campaign contributions. You correctly criticize bias by rating companies in your book, but what about politicians who accept campaign contributions for the direction of policy matters and sponsoring legislative favors. Accepting a campaign contribution should eliminate a politician from voting on matters beneficial to the contributor. Our politicians are a motley lot, with a few exceptions.
If there’s still a bit leg down ahead after this rally, shouldn’t we be worried about more deflation first and inflation/hyperinflation later? There are still alot of mortgage defaults ahead if you look at the adjustable mortgage charts for 2010 and 2011.
AS a new but modest income investor and having read your book,my goal is just to earn enough to retire my sole debt :a 90k mortgage before prostate cancer gets me,I’m told I have 2yrs.MY QUESTION RELATES TO WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DEFLATION OR INFLATION DEPRESSION.I JUST RECEIVED A 30 PAGE NEWSLETTER PITCH FROM NICK GUARINO TITLED GOLD IS ABOUT TO CRASH! HIS RATIONALE IS BASED ON OUR A CONTRACTING ECONOMY AND THE TRILLIONS BORROWED FOR BAILOUTS ISN’T GETTING INTO THE MONEY SUPPLY.HIS MESSAGE IS THAT INVESTORS ARE BEING SET UP AGAIN AS GOLD WILL PLUMMET AS A SAFE HEAVEN FOR FRIGHTENED DOLLARS.SINCE YOU HAVE MENTIONED BOTH(DEFLATION & INFLATION),HOW DO YOU SEE THIS PLAYING OUT AS OUR CAPITALISTIC SYSTEM IS BEING DISMANTLED BY THIS OBAMA NEW WORLD GOVERNMENT?
Martin,
I have been listening to your advice since the latter part of 2008. Markets have rallied 40% since march. If you are a true contrarian investor should you not make money when the markets are going up as well as down? Hanging around for things to fail is fine and dandy, but it is more important to take advantage of say a 40% rise in the overall market. Buying bank short ETF’s has really backfired for anyone that did that. At this point your portfolio has underperformed the S&P by over 20%. I signed up for the service in mid-May and I will be withdrawing from the service within 90 days if I continue to see losses piling up in the midst of a bear market rally. I own a small business and my business is doing very well. I’m an auto repair shop and we have seen an increase in volume with the drop in new car sales. I can thank God for this.
Unfortunatly I can say this is a simple problem that has gotten out of control. I was raised to live within my means. I have many friends that always had the better things. I myself had too much. I always had little debt in case of an unforseen situation. The problem we all are facing is we simply have too much and too much on credit. If you can’t pay cash for it wait for it. Two exceptions in the past were your house and car. I have a friend who lives in Mexico and years back he mentioned to me that there is not too much difference between the US and Mexico except the american has access to easy credit. There is alot of truth to this. One good my father always said is the US is blessed with natural resources and that we are. Now the future is to study hard, work hard, keep the faith and never forget what our generations before us had to do.
Yes, the USA will survive. We will have a depression but we will survive.
I have 3 children in their 20’s, 2 college graduates and 1 a year away and I am most heartened by the fact that their generation is far more conservative than the media makes them out to be.
The depression changed the politics of this country from the republican to democratic party for 70 years. I see Obama being the natural culmination of these politics as well as the trigger that will change country back for another 70 years. He will be the Hoover of future generations.
I read your book and see what you said about bonds starting to happen now. When do you project time in future to get best long term yields?
Actually, I sent my comments to your ‘alerts@weissinc.com’ rather than putting the comments here. My comments were essentially a positive reaction to reading your “Ultimate Guide” – - rather than a rant against the current situation. Also I attached my chart showing the decay in the purchasing power of the US$. A lot of people think that chipping away at their purchasing power is a recent phenomena – - it isn’t; it’s been going on for all of the last century.
In the above, I read mostly comments about losing money big time in the debacle of last year. Sure, I lost a few bucks, but am clawing my way back (one penny at a time). And anyway, who ever gave anyone the right to a retirement? There were no retirements much before the late 19th century; retirement is a recent (and perishable) situation. The state has screwed up family relationships mostly by “guaranteeing” that the so called social security would “always” be there. Of course, when an administration in the 1960s rolled the SS fund into the governmment’s general fund, there went that!
At any rate, be happy that you’re alive; some of our fellow citizens didn’t make it through the regularly occuring wars.
America will not survive. Period.
Hello Dr Weiss and colleagues,
I agree that the latest rally in the markets is no more than a sucker bounce.
When the market collapse once again will it affect all shares or will I be fairly safe with my gold mining shares.
Cheers Dave.
Wow! Seems nobody can make a cent these days. Well, if I had divested myself of all my stocks (RIG, COP, CLNE, VIP, SIF, BHP, EEM, HPQ, FCX) that have gone up SIGNIFICANTLY since 3/18 deadline (made about 90k since then on a crippled 400k portfolio which was 900k in 12/07 with investment advisors Fischer – lost 50%) i would have lost big time on inverse ETF’s which I bought as a hedge. I think I can do as well as anyone these days.Noone can predict it all, but high fliers don’t often touch ground. Executive Cruises and high end hotel conferences with valet service may be why they are so delusional and mislead investors – do they care? hardly, they would lose 50k and charge me 2500 for the pleasure. And why should they care anyway? It’s your money they are investing. Let’s see, 8500 suckers for the contrarian portfolio x 2500 each = 2,000,000. How could you lose? Million dollars to lose, still make a million. Wise up. They are putting on a magic show. Educate yourselves. Nobody cares about you but you. Think things through. What investments that would be good in down times, and better in good times – what do people always need, what is in peril, what can we we do without? Who is going to build the future? Do I need a Hummer -NO. do I need to keep my Accord or Camry going two more years? of course! That’s easy. Should I maintain my house, do a few improvements I can enjoy and add to the resale value (which may be down now, but not forever) I’m no investment advisor – my career was a computer dude. But thoughtful, common sense is your best bet. If I hadn’t let a money management company (Fischer or Fisher or whatever) I could have TRIPLED my money. But they knew better -sold 10k shares @26, when 4 months later MSFT paid 66 a share. I’ll never trust another investment mgr. They said “We don’t follow them” Might as well have invested with Beavis and Butthead Co.
Don’t know why I got involved here. I got scared watching everything go kaput in 2008. Will America go broke? Some say so, but think about that. Are we going to go neandrathal? Will we have to chase the Hairy mammoth? We are way past that. Will China blow us off? Not hardly, it’s the old MAD Mutual destruction theory. We all need each other in this world, now more than ever. Don’t be paranoid, think positive. Invest in Positive new situations. Intel and Cisco, Brocade and those similar will rebuild the worlds infrastructure along with FCX, SIF, NUE maybe CAT if they survive. Saying “America wake up” is pointless. You might as well stand on a freeway offramp asking for a dollar for food (or wine). Nobody is listening. Think for yourself. Don’t expect government to take care of you. Look what they’ve done for Chrysler and GM workers. Be Pissed they give AIG execs millions – we can’t fix that or ever get a real answer how that happened -it’s corrupt to the core, you can challenge your govt reps on how they let that happen. But don’t expect them to EVER give you anything more than a peanut butter sandwich at a food bank. May health and Peace be with you, I doubt the government or money managers will ever provide you with either. But they will have it all in their gated communities, homes in six states, and life long health care. Don’t forget that.
I enjoy reading your information, and it is all so true.I also have been wondering if America will survive. It could be a downfall and we could be in another government so help me God.When
do businesses get so big that they should not go down? It is devastating about GM. i WORKED
for a Ford Dealership 25 years and know all about the operation as I went in every dept. as manager. I t will touch so many lives ! aMERICA IS NOT TOO BIG TO FAIL ALSO. My dad used
to say that during a recession the largest ones went under. I didnt realize what he meant until now. He went through the depression in the 30’s.
Keep giving us you feed back. I hope people start waking up !!! Thanks Thelma
It looks like China made it clear what the next century will look like for the American auto industry. Virtually everything else is made in China, why not cars. For years now America has been selling out to cheap labor in foreign countries and sending manufacturing of all kinds out of the country, in the name of profit. It doesn’t matter that it’s people don’t have work. We will give them cheap goods as long as we can make a profit, who cares where it is made. Guess what, cars are goods as well. What makes us think this shouldn’t happen to this industry? Greed started the downward slope and greed will have it continue. Where do we stop now?
It is very sad and worrying about GM AND ALL THE OTHER COMPANIES THIS IS GOING TO AFFECT, how do you think it will affect S.A. as Gm has many branches here as well. Iam not in
finanance, and maybe understand very little about it, but am worried about the South African
Banks as i have most of my money invested in ABSA bank.
We all pray that this is not going to get worse, in any country as i am only worried about all
the people and children and the elderly it effects.
The government will not stop spending and the derivative manufacturers in Conn. will not stop because they work for the Gov in some cases so all we can look forward to is the fire sale of anything in Amerika that can be sold. What a joke?
Question, Martin,
What do you know about the ways in which our markets are manipulated ? Why is it that as of January 2009, all securities will be held in ” street name”; there will be no more certificates of ownership, as entities such as CEDE & Co. now hold title to YOUR SECURITIES You are no longer the owner; YOU ARE NOW THE BENEFICIARY, NOT THE OWNER, as CEDE & CO., etc. IS THE OWNER.
As far as I can tell, the game is played whereby “Cede & Co.” is controlled by the Wall Street Banks, in particular, JP MORGAN, which is joined at the hip with the privately owned FEDERAL RESERVE, through the NY FED, Goldman Sucks, etc. What is to keep their computer programs from manipulating the markets ?
The FED’s manipulations have stolen trillions from the public repeatedly through their history, creating 95% inflation over 95 years of their existence, and the FED is largely responsible for this “financial crisis”, keeping rates in the toilet, in cahoots with the brokers & Banks, Greenspan refused to regulate the derivatives, let Fannie/Freddy get away with their crooked ways, turning a blind eye.
They are doing what they did to create the 1930’s depression; even Bernanke admits that the FED caused the depression, and “We’re sorry !” The problem this time is that they have gone too far in this stupid Keynesian idea that we have to spend multi trillions more than we have to “save the financial system” They have created, whether by accident, stupidity, or by intentionally deciding to bankrupt this country, the next depression and made this country a debt slave through eternity.
We have a president that thinks the we should turn over this country to the UN , for everything, so they can control the world. ( And he can be SECRETARY GENERAL !) The “Cap & Trade” is the means they apparently are going to use to complete the destruction of this country, while enriching the likes of Al Gore, and taking over the rest of the land and water of the US. (See Sovereignty International for a precise run down as to what has been going on behind our backs, instituted by the UN and it tentacles, the IMF, Bank of international Settlements, World Bank, etc.) .
The debt they are creating is going to be responsible for the Zimbabwe style inflation, in addition to the scheme to socialize/communize the country we are already seeing. Mugabe seized the Rhodesian farms of the whites, turned them over to the blacks that had no idea of how to farm or run a business; now they buy a loaf of bread with millions of dollars. We have “CAR CZARS “running the auto industry that have never really worked a day in their lives, except for some government entity, which is true of so many of our elected officials.
Seems to me it’s going to be a matter of devaluing our currency OFFICIALLY at some time. So is holding physical gold and silver of help in self protection of their schemes ? It could be exchanged for whatever currency replaces the US dollar (FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE).
(THIS IS NO LONGER THE COUNTRY MY ANCESTORS FOUGHT TO CREATE , AND I RESENT THIS TAKEOVER WHICH HAS REPLACED AN ELECTION; WE HAVE TO TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK !)
I cannot agree as one writer wrote that the GOP will save the day and that without them things will look quite “bleak”. The GOp (with Clinton’s help) have been the champions of deregulation, which is the single largest reason for the mess we are in right now. A “free market” just becomes a “free-for-all”, and Madoff is the prime example of that. It is possible to have capitalism and government at the same time. I believe in both. I am not a socialist but neither do I believe we can do without significant regulation , the kind of regulation that was put in place after 1929 and that then disappeared decades later before various financial crises followed.
The US needs a good manufacturing base and workers need to be able to buy the products they produce. Tax the very wealthy higher. How is it that the wealthy are so far paying way less in taxes than they were with Richard Nixon, no friend of socialism. Obama a socialist? My foot. The scare tactics put out by FOX TV and the GOP are just superficial nonsense that do not stand up to intelligent scrutiny. If universal healthcare is socialist what about schools, the police service, fire service? Are they more or less socialist than giving access to healthcare for all? Or do we prefer to subsidize insurance companies and maintain an inefficient expensive system?
Investment oppotunities? Commodities and foreign currencies. Oil will eventually surpass $150 even if it takes a few years. Sorry Martin the dollar has not gained traction as your team indicated it would.
What happened with GM was no accident, it was all part of the plan to bust the UAW and minimize workers rights and benefits. When the UAW shut down the CORP with strike in 1977 Gm said never again!! There was the southern plan to move operations to right to work states, shreddding of the EV1, and team concept to mention just a few. I have not seen details of the bankruptcy but if things are running true to form bankruptcy was only declared on US operations, specifically targeting the american workers. When Delphi declared bankruptcy the writing was on the wall. It was only a matter of time until GM would do the same. In @005 BUSH sign an agreement to form the NORTH AMERICAN UNION and print one currency for Canada , The US , and Mexico. Within the first 100 days of the new Presidency the finacial tsar Timothy G. has already mentioned printing a new currency. There is a plan underway to turn AMERICAN workers into slaves. This is evident by the overt actions that have taken place to intentionally erode the US DOLLAR. At the speed and intensity of recent PLanned events it is obvious that these problems will not be solved with words if History is an accurate indicator. The current situation would be properly referred to as a HOSTILE TAKE OVER.
I think natural resources, precious metals and China, Brazil, and some alternative energy
will be good investments in the long run. I Obama turns against Israel, I think we as a country will have even more problems.
As the President of the organization which I am involved with it is my place to be of all things a watch dog: Having said this, the things I see is that this whole thing is manufacturered in order to destroy the stability that America has had over all these year, the reason is very simple, it all hinges on getting America out of the way, to make way for the emerging one world global government: Will the Globlist win, yes for this reason and this reason along, it is because of so many national local governments be they free or other wise have not managed to manage affairs of it countries, to the point where the populations around the world are ready to reach out to any thing that will give them what they believe they should be experience peace and prospertiy, the Globlist big carrot. The main problem is that we do not and have not true government
for the people, by the people this being the case I very much doubt that it would have
ever come to the stage that we are finding us in today; much more could be said, America if it wants to survive it will need much that just prayer, it will need pure light to decipher what is tuly happening, and the taking of steps that are even more dramatic then the steps that have are being taken to sink America.
Dear Sir.
I will be 75 in September and worked hard all my life, and when I could see that PAPER money coming to an end as people were using CARDS for their shoping, I told my wife the WORLD is landing itself in BIG throuble, and I could see that our world going BACK to the days “TRADING WITH GOLD AND SILVER” the real value of our ASSETS.
So my friend I can only say invest in GOLD AND SILVER, as those days will come back, BUT TOO LATE FOR ME.
So I am in PROPERTIES the next BEST.
REGARDS
Armando
From what you and your group have been saying, plus what I read in the WSJ indicates
comercial real estate looks to be heading south. But (SRS) ultra short real estate has been going down pretty constantly, from above $65 to below $20. Is it a viable short to hold? Your thoughts please.
Dave Reed
Martin Weiss is our modren-day Paul Revere. “The British are coming, the British are coming” was Paul Revere’s warning. What is Martin telling us? Like an Army squad in enemy territory. What are they told? Be vigilant! Keep your eyes and ears open. Check everything. Keep in touch with your friends, we are all in this together.I’m 91 years old. One thing I know for sure is the human body was not made to last much longer than 100 years probably in part because of the way we treat it so time is of the essence. The American people are slowly awakening to the fact that right now, this minute, there are people who are mododically taking our country and our freedom away from us. We have been remiss in not holding our political “representatives” liable for their actions. The horse is out of the barn. Can we identify the thief? We desparately need a leader who has the ability to attract a multimillion man posse. Hold the theif accountable and get our country back.
I personally want to thank you for the warning given in fall of 2004 when you listed 25 stocks on one of your e-mails saying “if you are holding these stocks after the election good luck they are dogs (GM and Ford were the last 2 listed). I moved all I could out at $44 a share. I worked for GM 36 years its certainly not like it used to be. I agree this country is spiritually bankrupt. The beginning of Proverbs 13:22. Its not a coincidence (there is no word in the Hebrew for coincidence) that the stock market decline began on 9/30 Rosh HaShanah the Jewish new year. Look for 12 years of tough times we ain’t seen nothing yet. We are moving down the food chain because of our Greed. Haggai 2: 6-7 and Habakkuk 2:6-14
Your views on investing in a country like India.Will countries like China,India escape the depression or will they too go through the pain of a depression.Thank you for your views in advance.
Dear Sir,
I will be 75 in September and work hard all my life,when I could see paper money coming to an end,as people were using CARDS for their shoping,I told my wife the WORLD is landing itslef in Big trouble,and I could see the world going back to the days *TRADING WITH GOLD AND SLIVER” the real value of our ASSETS.
So my friend I can only say to invest in GOLD and SLIVER,as those days will come back, too late for my.
So I am in PROPERTIES the next BEST.
Regards
Armando
i have one question. where is all the money that is being lost going? is it going to europe or swis banks? it is common sense that if i have a quarter and i lose it for whatever reason the coin is somewhere, it just doesnt vanish into thin air. is it the power of the euro or is america getting lasy and is not producing as much as it used to?
Absolutely heartbreaking that we Christian Americans have ,because of our apathy, unconcern,and failure to be proactive in voiceing our outrage. have surrendered our precious United States of America to the anti-american, anti-Christian far left socialist-communist activist who are obviously more evangelistic than we are about propagating their idealogy/agenda.
Martin, thank you and your good team for all you do in taking a position for right and truth. Of course your market analysis and your recommendations are the most credible on the scene today along with your insights on the world political and economic happenings. Keep standing in the gap. We need you
With much appreciation,
Ed Spencer
Blind Leading the Blind … And they both fall in the Ditch!!!!! WELCOME TO OUR NEW SOCIAL RX- BLACK HELICOPTERS-SECRET OPS-ZERO ACCOUNTABILITY- PUBLIC HANGINGS?
Hi Martin
I am about in the same position as Paul above, and will be 75 the 22nd of this month. I have two portfolios, one I call my core account the other I call my trading account. The core account has almost held it’s own due to a Perpetual Money Fund of 8 closed end etf’s which so far pay great dividends reinvested monthly. These funds were recommended to me by the Oxford Club some time back and have paid off very well, so I intend to keep feeding income into them until I reach holdings to support switching to monthly income checks to my bank account.
The other portfolio I use to trade almost daily in which I have lost up to 75% but now is back to 50% loss and climbing. Lately I only trade for energy, alt. energy, and food and water stocks which I believe will be the only thing worth holding for the future.
That being said, I would like to comment on the situation of the country. Until the greedy, self serving dummies of this country wake up and realize they have been systematically brainwashed and reprogrammed over the last 50 plus years by the so called “elitist” (megamoney enemies of freedom of the masses), and realize they have been duped and manipulated into obedient zombies when election times come around, this country has had the schnitzel. We all need to realize the Democrat Party is no more for the people, but is now the Liberal Nazi party which is the enemy from within that will destroy this country, not to socialism, but to a full dictatorship, where the good people of this country will be of the same social level as Chinese Coolies that work the rice paddies in China and/or N. Korea. It will not matter what our money is worth, as the general public will not have any, and will be fortunate to survive on what they can grow in the ground. Sounds bad huh? Believe it now or later when it’s too late.. It will happen, just a matter of time.
So what can we do as individuals? One thing is to realize the problem is SIN. Then get right with the Creator God who promiced those “called by His Name”, II Cronicles 7:14. Takes more than reading that, we have to commit ourselves to our side of the bargain, and maybe, just maybe He will give this country a reprieve for a few more years. Otherwise, the lifeboats are filling up fast, and if you do not know Christ, there won’t be room for you. As for me and mine, we already have reserved seats. ;-) But I’d sure like to see this country back on course for the kids before we leave.
One way to do that is through the laws of our Constitution. We the People are still in control, although we sure don’t act like it. Before the Liberals get the power and opportunity to destroy the Constitution why can’t we come together and sue the pants off every politician who intentionally violates their pledge and tar and feather them on the way out the door of Congress. Start with Pelosi the liar. Then Frank, Schumer, Dodd and other libs guilty of Racketeering. Make a clean sweep, most are guilty, and get this train back on track for 2010.
Next make Martin Sec. of Treasury. With his experience and that of his father, he could have headed this fiasco off during the Bush Adm. Amen????
I believe as the way it goes, dollar will no doubt devalue quickly against foreign currencies. The ways that may save individual’s hard earned savings are: 1. To buy stocks that can make money faster than the dollar devaluation 2. Buy real estate while it is cheap, the mrket will come back around in time 3. Change some of the U.S. dollars into some upswing foreign currencies.
NO WE WILL NOT BECAUSE IT’S ALL PART OF A BIGGER PICTURE TO DEVALUE THE DOLLAR!!! THE US & EUROPE HAVE ANOTHER AGENDA….STAY TUNED
Martin,
I like to read your comments ans amalysis. Looks like they are still some people in the US with common sense.
To set the scene, I am a Swiss citizen living in the UK. I will compare one of the main sector that drove us into the current mess: housing. Here, in the UK, we have cardboard doll houses, fully overpriced (still) and of poor quality. In Switzerland, they have houses built out of brick, stone and concrete, made to last at least two centuries. Swiss houses are not exactly cheap, but well worth their price tag. Reason why? The housing market is tightly regulated, the property prices are slowly ans steadily rising (still today) because mortgage specialised banks (most of them state-owned) are cautious and do not take unmanageable risks. As you might know, they are two quite distinct banking systems in Switzerland: the fat cats (UBS, CS) who went down international and dipped into the subprime market with the results we know.
The other sector are all the state banks. One per Swiss state (the US original Constitution is quite a carbon copy of the Swiss 1815 Constitution). These are rock solid, strongly regulated and at least 51% state owned. You want to invest in something as sure as “Christmas is in December” ? Go for them.
I would advise to get some of the BCV shares. Yes this is Bank shares :-)
to have a look at how they are doing through this crisis.
Admitedly, this is not contrarian. Just safe. No big money, but no big risk. Switzerland had its own housing bubble some 15 years ago and learned from it. Oh, and one more thing, my Swiss banker knows me, all my details, knows my career, my family. Well, both banker and kind of a friend. This is what I call customer service.
Take care.
Gregoire
I have heard that we program our own destinys, That our minds are electrical energy and as we think with our minds it eventually will write this into your heart and it will eventually become a reality in your life. ” As a man thinks in his heart so is he.”
As a group you can change the destiny of your town , and your country. If enough americans think that the state owes them something, and dont like to work hard, but like to get all you can , (case in point GM workers and union) your liberal minded , anything goes, and we are all entitled to free lunch eventually that type of thinking puts socialists, and liberals, in power over the hard working people of this country , because you were working hard and never realized the liberal, welfare mentality took over your country …and now you the taxpayer are going to pay to keep the “you owe me ” in their greedy lifestyle.
I will be investing in canadian resource stocks and gold.
Gold is the only safe thing for me! john
The usa has a huge problem and that is the current bunch of rulers are riding roughshod over the constitution itself . Most of the fed acts are illegal and also totally unregulated .The fed itself is an extra constitutional body . The creature from jenkyll island has come to haunt the American people again and this time its mostly going to be the last time .
What the USA needs is a third political party which really cares for the man on the street ,the hardworking american and the committed american who is committed first to the republic of the USA . These current two parties are the same ,average ,mediocre and totally compromised to their banksters and masters who fund their campaigns .
The usa has absolutely no hope since the manufacturing symbol is gone into bankrupcy .All the usa currently manufactures in abundance is just dollar bills .
Thanks for a great newsletter which keeps us updated on current events and the state of the nation .
Obama is turning out slowly to be a great american HOAX due to his actions and his selection of people to help guide out of the global crisis , and the charm is slowly wearing thin ..
He has wasted no time in starting a war in Pakistan which is totally unnecessary using someone elses army by bullying a bankrupt nation called Pakistan . He is going to lose there , the war is nothing to do with the taliban ,but against the Pashtoons who are innocent and and are a total clanlike ready to sacrifice entire families for war ,ITS JUST NOT IRAQ ,its full of mountains and the terrain is no picnic , and the Pashtoons have been fighting wars for centuries ,everyone including the roman army ,even the mighty genghis khan left them well alone , the Russians could do nothing and they were just close by ,the americans are nearly half the globe away .Obama is a great media manipulator but i think he has bitten far more than he can chew this time at least in Pakistan .
A whole generation and a half of americans has only been habituated to living on CREDIT and knows nothing else .ITS very difficult to change habits and lifestyles and roll sleeves adn get to work . THE GLOBAL GDP in the last ten years has increased 16 times just due to derivatives and that is another sorry statistic .ITS better to have GDP on some tangible like a manufacturing or some service rather than on thin air and wisp of wind .
The USA has forgotten to work for a living due to the policies of these POLITICIANS who indulge in wars as a last resort to safeguard their seats and positions of power .Every war is just antoher racket to enrich a select few at the cost of hundereds of lives and abject misery for millions .
A bigger problem is these economists some of whom are nobel lauretes who have been harping on the wrong economic models for economies and have totally ruined entire continents like africa .These economic policies mostly Keynesian are now taught as the latest fashion in most of the the best universities and accepted as a gospel and when the keynesian policies fail a different excuse is touted for the failure but its never the failure of any economic model .The mainstream media is also complicit in these brainwashing by governments worldwide and there is no counter view projected to counter the official view .
During the presidential campaign the current incumbent has stated time and again that his administration would be the most transparent IN USA HISTORY in all its dealings . These grand statements have all been thrown in the dustbin .
I see gloom and doom ahead since the largest market is in trouble and the people who have the job of administering it are totally unreliable and untrustworthy and have only mastered the art of illusion with the smooth talk using state of the art telepromptors basically.
THE 21 CENTURY IS A CENTURY OF CHALLENGES due to RAPID ADVANCEMENT IN TECHNOLOGIES , small business cycles and fast pace and what are needed are ABLE LEADERS UP TO THE CHALLENGE not manipulative politicians who hold the country back and also hinder CAPITALISM and are only great orators and nothing else .
MARTIN
PRECIOUS METALS / CURRENCIES COMMODITIES SEEM ON FIRE LIKE YOUR SHOW VERY ALIVE
CLOSE BANKS BAIL OUT BUISNESS
GERALD
America’s hey day has come and gone, no more free lunches. In saying that there is always oppertunities to make money. 30% cash, 30% in gold and silver bullion, 30% in blue chip commodity plays outside of America such as BHP, Rio-Tinto, BP and 10% for gold and silver juinor miners. I especially like the Canadian juniors at the moment, huge potential to make a fortune with a small ammount of money.
USA will pass this crisis ,it is not the first time.But in addition to the mismanagement in the economy, there is more serious mismanagement on the political side .For America TO SURVIVE THINGS MUUST BE PUT IN ORDER POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY.
REGARDS
Martin,
A. Can’t thank you enough for all your insights.
B. I suspect commodities and inflation are going to go up – big time.
C. I don’t understand bankruptcy. Shouldn’t GM sell EVERTHING first and pay off as many creditors as possible? How can they screw bondholders, shed all that debt, and still keep plants and equipment in their name? That they come out smelling like a rose stinks.
Martin,
A. Can’t thank you enough for all your insights.
B. I suspect commodities and inflation are going to go up – big time.
C. I don’t understand bankruptcy. Shouldn’t GM sell EVERTHING first and pay off as many creditors as possible? How can they screw bondholders, shed all that debt, and still keep plants and equipment in their name? That they come out smelling like a rose stinks.
WELL BUISNESS REALLY FIRST IN LINE FOR HELP NO BUISNESS NO WORK NO JOBS
NO FOOD BANKS OUT STOP HAND OUTS TO BANKERS STOP OVER TAXING HARD WORKING TAX THE BANKERS WHO ARE MILKINGTHE WORKERS
GERALD
Dear Martin,
My thoughts going back 3 to 5 years are that GM was lying about their actual Assets or Net Worth.
My thoughts now are that GM could have went Bankrupt without 50 Billion from the US GOV.
Another thought? Is the 50 Billion really tax payer money? If it is what is the process for that????
If GM has “to sell 10 million cars a year to break even” they are going to be downsized by 90 to 95% or they wont make it. The UAW have not yet made the considerations they need to.
Free healthcare after age 65 is not sustainable. The UAW members need to transfer to Medicare and have an opportunity to buy a MED-SUP as if they just turned 65. The whole mess was not handled correctly by GM, the GOV and the UAW, they were all to busy trying to stick it to the Bondholders.
David A. Acklin, By the way I have no plans on buying a car anytime soon.
I have faith in our system. Our economy will right itself in time. It may take some years but things tend to work out.
As a disabled veteran of the Vietnam era, I’ve been reading financial sites to get more information than the “driveby media.” I am afraid for this country and the innocent seniors caught up in the government tarbaby of Social Security and Medicare and even the Veterans Administration. “We have met the enemy and he is us,” Pogo said in a cartoon in 1970, and it is coming true for those who can see.
PS Although I carry the same name as a recording business executive, I am not that person… there’s at least 45 of us listed on the net phone book.
Precious metals are the best to invest at least will not bankrubt on us
is that true?
I am concerned about senior citizens and youths in the nation now.
I share in the grief others have expressed over the decline of our nation and I’m very unhappy with traitorous people in positions of power who are causing it. But, as a Church-going Christian, I think I have to say, like Pogo, “we have found the enemy and the enemy is us”. Our nation would not be in this sad situation if we, the Church, had not abandoned our morality, our charity, and our backbone to stand for the Christian character and principles embodied in the Declaration of Indepencence, the Constitution of the USA, and the Holy Bible.
The corrupt and diseased condition of our government, our economy, our morality and our nation will not be healed unless we, the Church, apologize to God and sincerely apply ourselves to the remedy He has provided for times such as these:
“If my people, which are called by my name, will humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.” 2nd Chronicals 7:14
Dear Martin
I have the feeling that Mr.Gheitner is in China to prepare the Chinese for a USDLRS
devaluation and therefor the stockmarket continues to go up and gold as well.
Europe will suffer from this and especially Germany whilst China will have no problem
since they will stimulate consumption at home.
Sofar the contrarian portfolio has been ok chossing gold but failed completely to recognize that the ETFs sofar created only losses instead we should have betted the opposite way, anyway in the casino there is no logic.
The corrupt and diseased condition of our government, our economy, our morality and our nation will not be healed unless we, the church, apologize to God and sincerely apply ourselves to the remedy He has provided for times such as these:
“If my people, which are called by my name, will humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.” 2nd Chronicals 7:14
I think the “green chutes” everyone is talking about is pioson ivy. Will we ever be the America we once were? NO–It is over folks. The Vietnamese are willing to work for a dollar a day; are you? We have to be competative or have a technical edge inorder to grow and we no longer have either. The incentive to work harder or smarted is getting harder to muster as our socialistic society demands taking it all in taxes.
I worked in China for 2 years (had to move the business to China or have them put me out of busines) where I paid $1.25 per hour insted of $15.00 in the US–there is a message here America–Wake up.
Keep electing demoRATS that only know how to redistibute wealth instead of creating wealth and we will continue on this same path.
G’day Martin,
we in OZ seem somewhat immune at this point. The stockmarket keeps rising; unemployment is increasing but hardly noticeable as day to day commerce appears as active as ever; cutbacks in mining with layoffs but certainly not dramatic. Our terms of trade (lower imports) prevented us from technically being labelled “in recession” and Im wondering if I have missed the boat to buy shares when they were at bargain basement prices. Our GMH branch is ok and the collapse of the U.S. company didnt spark a collapse in share value. What gives? Do I hold tight and wait for the bear to re-emerge or start buying – the feeling here is we are coming out of it!
Col Edwards
I am 57, which I have said in the ’80s that this country was going to financially fall. You can not run a country on billions & billions (now trillions) of dollars of debt without something cracking or crashing. Now, we are losing our retirement, & freedom. Capitalism works, socialism does not, what happened in Russia. I agree with you that more bubbles will pop, when are the 535 men & women in congress, going to see the errors of their ways.
inverse etf’s on the financials, the same for treasury bonds, the dow ands the s&p 500.
double long oil, and gold? buy silver and gold. these are my picks from all my research, especially from your emails, and other online sites.
it is truly a sad day to see one of the biggest auto producers go bankrupt but i think it was inevitable. You cannot go on running up your bills without consequence. The large corporations in this country have in the past seen nothing wrong with borrow, borrow, borrow. And they always believed things would get better. But how long can you go on money that really isn’t there? Dealerships have been loaded with new cars. the supply seems endless. But who wants to buy a vehicle for half the money you could purchase a house or real property for? And along with the price increase has come vehicles with engines and equipment that can only be serviced at a dealership. This isn’t what people want. They want something that they can service and repair themselves. The price of auto parts has also gone skyhigh. I believe that that some years ago when car companies started offering service contracts and maintenance at a fee they cut their own throats. And our government always coming to the rescue has not saved them at all. We may be coming to a point where only a few of these large corporations survive. I myself am disabled and on a limited income so investments in my world are non-existant. I struggle with monthly bills and no health insurance. But I only have one credit card that has money owed. How would i have ever survived with the philosophy that large corporations use to guide their expenditures? I think failure and bankruptcy were inevitable. And the large company executives should have been willing to sacrifice some of their huge paychecks to ensure the future was sound for them. But they were not. Greed is a strong and vicious creature and has swallowed many people. The truth is that if our government also fails and is unable to provide such services as social security and help for the needy it will be a sad day indeed. And i know that the amount of this is small compared to what they have given to the corporate world for bailouts. I think it is time that our world becomes more equalized. Ted Turner(goofy) said if you need more than 70 million dollars a year to live on there is something wrong with you. I am sorry to see GM fail but i have never been a chevy person myself! lol. I can only hope that this sign of the times doesn’t make life any rougher for those of us who already are barely surviving.
“Over time, this will be very significant,” said Ray Valdes, an analyst with Gartner Research. “Social networking sites have suffered with monetising [their services], but this leverages [the fact that] users are there on Facebook.”
Dear Dr Weiss, I see the country going the way of GM. The world seems to be as it was at the onset of WWII. The US is being taken over by a bunch of power grabbing opportunist who created a financial mess to obtain power. I see a world war on the horizon just like in the 1930’s. The future does not look very good for all of humanity. Regardless of the type of government we have, socialist, communist, captilist, fascist, or…there is always the wealthy and then the rest of us. Our country sure got duped by the politicians again. Thank you for asking. The ship is sinking and the life rafts are few.
Do you think there will be deflation or inflation? To me, the writing on the wall is clear. The USD and many other leading currencies will buy half of what they buy today in a decare or two because we humans have borrowed way too much money from ourselves (with promise to pay in future with interest) and since that much money will not be payable through wealth generation, we will pay ourselves by printing more money. No country is immune from this.
Think when you buy US treasuries or any country’s bonds, you are loaning money to US govt or indirectly to people of that country. So everytime you are buying US treasuries in your 401K with say 30 year maturity date, you are basically borrowing money from yourself today (or your grandchildren) and after 30 years this money will have to be paid back with interest by you (and your countrymen and your grandchildren). If the net wealth generated in this timeframe is not enough to pay principal + interest, this will be monetized by currency devaluation.
There is NO option other than long term inflation to pay for this debt. If any of the experts and Phd’s tell you otherwise, don’t listen to them!
Key money market rates rose for the first time in more than two months amid worries that the economic revival could stall as the financial health of banks remains fragile.
The cost of borrowing dollars between banks over three months, or dollar London interbank offered rates, on Tuesday rose for the first time since March 26. Dollar Libor edged up to 0.663 per cent from 0.660 per cent.
Three-month euro Libor also rose for the fifth day in a row to 1.270 per cent, although sterling Libor continued falling. It has dropped 62 days in a row since February 24 and now stands at 1.278 per cent.
Three-month Libor rates are the key rates in the market as billions of dollars of financial contracts are priced by them.
Don Smith, economist at inter-dealer broker Icap, said: “We are a long way from a broad-based recovery in the money markets. There are still worries about the financial system and some banks are still hoarding cash.
“We also have a very tiered market with stronger institutions able to borrow at much lower rates than the weaker ones.
“However, this rise in dollar Libor is very small. It is not a significant turning point. You have to put it in the context of how far dollar Libor and other Libor rates have fallen in the past few months.”
Dollar Libor jumped to a high of 4.820 per cent in October after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Euro Libor rose to 5.393 per cent, while sterling Libor spiked to 6.285 per cent.
However, there are concerns that banks are hoarding cash as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Dealers say only a few banks are prepared to lend, including a couple of big US banks and some Middle East and Asian financial institutions.
The weaker banks are also being forced to pay much more to borrow than the stronger institutions.
Hello Martin, I eagerly await your newsletter each day.
Such informative interesting reading. THANK YOU SO MUCH.
As I am from Australia and things are not quite so bad here YET your email gives me insight to what could be coming our way.
As far as the majority of politicians and their hanger-oners you would be hard pushed to beleive them even with their hand on the bible. Most of them sicken me. Their are quite prepared to sink our countries just so they can look after their buddies who have in my opinion caused this meltdown. Blind Freddie can see this.
Again, thank you and may GOD bless you always
Mary Honeysett
had money gripes, of course. But today’s scale of indebtedness puts this generation in a different league – and in need of money management skills.
Student debt? More like parental debt . . .
In many cases it will be parents shouldering much of the burden.
Sending a child to university can involve a new set of costs for parents not used to paying for education. Financial advisers say this added burden may also come at a time when the older generation needs to look to their own pension shortfalls. However for parents already used to paying school fees, supporting a child through university can seem relatively affordable.
With all these cheap student loans and overdrafts, I wonder if I should be helping out at all
Students have never been offered so much cheap money – which may partly explain how some get into so much financial trouble.
The government’s student loan system exists for students to be able to support themselves with low-cost loans of thousands of pounds. There’s nothing to repay until after the student leaves university and starts earning more than £15,000. While interest starts to accumulate on these loans from day one, the rate is only equivalent to the Retail Prices Index. For the past year this was set at 2.4 per cent although for the year starting this September it will jump to 4.8 per cent.
Banks also fall over themselves to sign up students with incentives and interest-free overdrafts. This year the “freebies” include a hefty £75 cashback with Lloyds TSB, while Halifax is offering 0 per cent overdrafts of up to £2,750, according to Moneysupermarket.com, the online comparison service.
So should young Jeremy just open accounts with all the banks and live off the 0 per cent cash?
Students are only supposed to have one student bank account, although some do open accounts with more than one bank and pocket a range of incentives and free overdrafts.
In opening any bank account, experts warn against being overly swayed by sign-up gimmicks such as free cinema tickets (Barclays) and 20 per cent discounts on books, CDs, DVDs and games (RBS). For most students interest-free overdrafts are likely to be the most worthwhile benefit, saving hundreds of pounds in costs. Even Lloyds’ £75 sign-up cashback has catches: only £25 is upfront with the other £50 dependent on the account not going overdrawn before June 2008.
Moneyfacts.co.uk, the rate monitor, also warns that interest-free overdrafts may be more limited than quoted maximums of £2,000 or more. Many banks only offer £1,000 of this in year one. Halifax has the highest quoted overdraft of £2,750, which can be applied for in year one. However, only students with the best credit rating may get it.
I’ve heard that some enterprising students actually make money out of investing student loans
It’s been suggested that students who don’t need their full loan should take the cash anyway and invest it, because they can make more interest than they incur. Some students have made hundreds of pounds from this arbitrage.
It has certainly made sense in the past year when the loan interest rate was just 2.4 per cent although from next month it will be harder when the rate rises to 4.8 per cent.
An obvious way to make a return is put loan money in a tax-free cash Isa, where the best rates are currently 6 per cent or more.
Many students are also non-taxpayers, so the wheeze should also work with other savings accounts. And if it works for loans at 4.8 per cent, maxing out a 0 per cent overdraft and investing the cash makes even more sense.
Some students may even be tempted to put the money in the stock market – although this carries risks. National Savings’ Index Linked Certificates guaranteeing a tax-free return of 1.35 per cent over RPI are another option.
Presumably students can also reclaim any overpaid tax?
Like the rest of us, students can reclaim overpaid tax by talking to their tax office. But if they get a summer job they should also look to sign a P38(S) form to be paid gross. So long as they earn less than £5,225 they shouldn’t have to pay tax. And banks will also have R85 forms which can be completed to receive savings interest gross
RICHARD R
I do not believe we can win the war in Afganistan because there is no interstruture, there is no industry, the government is weak and not supported by the people, the army and police are weak, the people are not familiar with democratic government, and one either farms poppies or joins a warring gang. America will tire of this war and its cost and eventually leave.
I think increasing your portfolio in precious metals is one way to hedge the future
economic downturn. I am not an expert in financial markets , but something very
unusual is attracting my attention: The Fed. Whay are they so secretive with their
actions that affect us all? In my opinion it would be for the BEST interest of our Nation
if they adopt 100% transparency . Sure it wold not solve every problem we have at the moment , but it would definitly be a sure first step in the right direction for this great
nation of ours.
God bless!
Yeah! blame this economic turmoil on the Dems.
Don’t forget when all this started (during the Regan era) when this country turned into the greatest debtor nation.We even got rid off all oversight rules and regulation.This was a direct result of an incompetent Republican controlled congress,senate and white house in the past 8 failed years.
I could go on and on or by the way lets not forget about the failed invasion of Iraq.
We have great difficulties here in England. Apart from short-sighted & corrupt thieving politicians, we also have a trend similar to your ‘where GM motors goes America will go’. Ours is ‘what happens in America will happen here in a couple of years’. My own view is that our Corporations have been allowed (even encouraged) to swallow all competition. There are a very few small specialist car manufacturers left in the UK, from what was a thriving diverse industry. The remaining factories are foreign owned (GM owns Vauxhall etc). The whole industry has become a cartel of huge manufacturers owning the names & marques that became famous by being different & good. Now all cars start to look the same. The companies need to operate 24/7 at tight margins to compete. It only takes a few percentage points to bring the whole thing tumbling down.
I recall one of your American politicians declaring, not too long ago, that deficits don’t matter ! Every housewife, small business owner & business manager on the planet knows that deficits DO matter. They can be hidden for a while. Governments can print money. Governments can hold down interest rates to tweak the economy. In accountancy & fraud terms it is called ‘teeming & lading’ – fudging the figures this month in the hope that you can correct next month. Eventually the whole thing just tumbles down.
Every country is as rich as it’s natural resources and the ability of it’s people to grow / manufacture / sell on the product of those natural resources.
In the UK we have been pumping oil out of the North Sea for 40 years – it’s nearly all gone. When the oil price spiked recently our Prime Minister went to the oil companies to urge them to pump it faster. We cannot rely on short-sighted fools to make decisions for the good of the coming generations.
Aim again for self-sufficiency as a nation. Aim to farm enough food to feed the nation. Encourage small business again. Force the huge corporations to split & diversify. The failures must go to the wall and/or start again.
The last depression was survivable because needs were fewer and the world was hungry for western technology and innovation. We have built a house of cards on service industries and money-go-rounds and house-flipping. This depression, for many people, is not survivable.
Government does not understand simple economic principles. You cannot borrow & spend your way out of debt. You must encourage saving and investment – which means savings must be secure and the return must be worth it. Those savings must only be lent to sound causes after due diligence procedure.
Good luck – we all need it !
I did warn everyone of the consequences of not following my copyright idea. Its still not too late.wake up america wake up europe wake up world
http://www.solardaily.com/reports/Satcon_Powers_Hawaii_Largest_Solar_Farm_999.html
Click on the links at the top of the page and have faith in the future AMERICA.
D C Trant
I am responding to Paul Wegeman’s post: your legacy is you’ve never given up, have worked hard, and set the example, never failed in loving your children.
You are no ward, you are what motivates children to try as well, and, as a family, will grow stronger, period. so, yes, keep working, and yes, keep healthy. I’ll do the same, my folks do the same, and you, most important of all, when you look at your self in the mirror, you are proud, clean.
I worry about USA and the world. The extreme elite who own the Federal Reserve and run the World Bank don’t care about any of us. They continue to get richer and more powerful by causing a crisis and then making the ordinary public/tax payer go into extreme debt to ‘get us over the problem’. Meanwhile they profit from the situation. My eyes have been opened by the film ZEITGEIST – take a look. We are all being played for fools!!!
Greetings Martin and Company.
Thank you for all your help and insight as to the occurance of events that have and are now taking place. I greatly appreciate your family history and your referrals to the greatness of your Father. I like wise had a Father, bless his Soul, that was a self-made auto mechanic. And even back in the 50’s he was commenting that there would come the day that the Auto Industry would some day fall apart. He hated Unions. And it was his contention that the Union would some day be the death of the auto industries.
Anyway, so far I have been struggling to keep my small fortune together. It is a chore at best. I did get out of the equities as recommended and do now own several ETF’s And I started buying into a couple of LLC’s of small oil drilling families in the KY area and OK. The families have been around for about a generation and a half. My participation is small so as not to get to risky. In OK. there are now two producing wells and am now receiving monthly dividends. In KY I have an interest in two old time drilling families. One event is a 15 well consortium. Todate 10 wells have been drilled and 7 are producing wells 2 non-commercial and one dry with still 5 left to drill. The eventual production level is looking like it will equal close to a minimum of 100 barrels per day. I started this all in Dec ‘08 and Jan. of ‘09. My thinking was to counter the high price of gas at the pump so my wife and I could afford to drive on the oil Co’s. dime and that it would be a hedge against inflation. I could not see paying $4 to $5 for a gal. of gasoline. And now the question is — Can this be considered a commodity that will be on par with gold and/or silver ? ? ? ? The price of oil is definitely going up and it looks like come next month it will hit $75/bbl. And it more than likely will be at about $90/bbl by the end of the year. At least that is what the guru’s are talking bout.
What is your opinion ?
Cheers, Lou
Thank you.
Dear Martin & readers,
I work for a bank and warned of the dangers you (and others) so wisely pointed out. I was ignored and the rest is history.
The US is a moral experiment – it is the world’s most successful nation, a nation that Under God (not Allah, Mr President) has given more rights, more freedoms, more protections and more material wealth to more peoples and more nations than any nation, empire or people group in history. Its institutions and government were for many generations the most admired and respected in the world, once again, Under God. (The classic 1000 page Christian Life and Character of the Civil Institutions of the United States underlines the Christian foundations of the nation).
But what has the US become? A gluttonous debt orgy with a failure of government, leadership and moral backbone. Debt and more credit is the answer to everything, your president is bowing and scraping before to the Saudi king in a disgusting display of obsequience and near-fealty, your divorce rates are soaring, your family structures are collapsing – but socialism and political correctness and taxpayer funded ‘diversity programs’ are in full swing, right?
One of your Presidents said that “Those who trade freedom for security will, and deserve, to lose both”. You are not far from that point, America. Same goes for the UK.
The leaders of any society sit not in Congress or thinktanks. They sit as the leaders of philosophy and religion, for it if from these people that your representatives, elected or otherwise, make their laws.
I highly recommend JD Unwin’s 1934 book “S.x and Culture” – hard to get but predicted what is happening now – the Eastern nations are not rising in wealth, rather, the US (and the west in general) is falling down the cultural scale to below that of the Eastern nations. Global leadership and wealth will follow.
This is a macro view – Keep up the good work, Martin & team.
Will America surive? In all actuality, it cannot survive if this president and legislature get their way. that being said, She wont go down without one hell of fight! i dont even think our own population entirely understands this old vets’ mindset. but they’ll catch on if need be.
All I know is the rest of the world better hope She pulls through.
Hi Martin and the Gang, Great Show with Glenn,Beck What Wonderful American Sprits we are,….. Indeed Go Metals and Maybe Flash action & with All the Leadership Mud Slinging, PRAY, for Aur Children’s Children. God Bless.
Our whole country is up to its eyeballs in debt Where and when it will end is anybody’s guess. Our once great country is in shambles and the whole world knows it. Should we all become survivalist? Can we continue to have faith in our politicians? I’m fast becoming disenchanted with Wall Street, Washington, and all of the greedy SOBs responsible for this mess. We all bought into their mantra and took our hard earn money to invest in their companies and exotic financial instrments only to have our 401-Ks decimated and all of our equity in our homes disappear in a few short months.
What are the options? Move to South America? Mexico? Panama? Eastern Europe where our weakening dollar can still buy more than in America? Who can we trust today in a world filled with dishonesty, greed, and corruption.
God Save American And The American People !
ML
Honolulu, Hawaii
precious metals and possibly energy
In your book The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide, chapter five, you mention the big risk for banks with derivatives. In my experience, the only unlimited risk with derivatives is related to selling options. Please explain.
Couldn’t get in the $1,000,000 portfoliio deal because the market has already picked my pocket! Wish I could have, though, because I believe the avalanche is getting set to fall on the US economy. Somehow, “good” news of an economic recovery keeps moving the market up on a wing and a prayer while the elephant standing in the room is left unnoticed! It’s fairly obvious that the irresponsible policies of the past of our government are finally coming in to view and the point is being reached where the piper cannot be ignored any longer and will demand payment! At this point, I am just trying to hold on to what I have left in my retirement account (99% in govt “G” fund) and waiting for the car speeding into the night to hit the proverbial “brick wall”. This country was built on hard work, sacrifice, prudence and God. People now seem to want it all without working for it. The pending avalanche is set and piper has his hand out – time to pay. Wall Street etc ignoring the downfall of the great American icons of GM, Chrysler, etc is beyond me. The dominoes are falling and the current fascade of a rally will come to an abrupt end. Time to get back to honest hard work, prudence and deal with reality, rather than senseless policies that knock this country out of competition — we need to bring back our manufacturing base to create jobs!
Good luck with the million dollar portfolio — you guys, I believe, will make a killing when the tide finally turns and the reality of this country’s economic situation finally hits. GM etc going under while the job losses have been exceeding 600,000/month along with all of the other bad news — foreclosures, credit card defaults etc cannot hold up this economy. Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!
Good luck with the portfolio — but don’t think you will need any luck, though – Klause (sp?) and Co have the ticket!
Attached is my letter to President Obama.
May 24, 2009
President of the United States
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington D.C. 20500
Dear President Obama,
With so many people writing you, I realize there is little chance of you reading this, but since the economic and financial situation is so grave I going to try anyway.
I hope that what I say will change your perspective and focus. Since we are a government of, by and for the people, if you fix the people, the people will fix everything else. So rather than focusing on big intuitions, focus on the people. Allow homeowners with a mortgage, home loan or land contract, to apply to the treasury for funds to reduce their debt. The treasury would send them a card, similar to a gift card you purchase at retailers or the grocery store, encoded with the name of the mortgage, contract holder or debt holder and 25% of the principal amount owed. The homeowner would take the card to the debt holder to reduce their debt. The debt holder would have to forgive any unpaid interest, late fees, penalties and the like and amend the loan, reducing the principal by 25% and the interest to 3%, adjust the payment for the remaining period of the loan. Anyone that lost their home thru foreclosure would be permitted to apply for a card in the amount of 25% of the principal owed at the time of the foreclosure. The card could be used as a down payment on a home of no greater value than the principal amount owing at the time of the foreclosure. No fees or charges could be made when the card is used. Cap all new mortgages home loans at 3% for the next 5 years.
The result of this action would stop all foreclosures, stabilize the housing market, eliminate all toxic mortgages, stabilize the banking system, fix Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, put thousands of people back to work, increase tax revenue to local, state and the federal governments.
What would this cost the federal government? Nothing. The treasury would not have to sell any bonds, notes or T bills. The cards would be the same a increasing the money supply. The only difference is that instead of going directly into the banking system, it goes to the people and then into the banking system. No act of congress is needed; everything is already in place for you to act. The Federal Reserve and banking system can process the requests. Just pick a date and do it.
There is not enough money in the world to save the auto industry. If they could sell more cars, they could save themselves. Use this dept reduction method to reduce individual auto loans and leases by 25% and they will buy more cars and trucks.
The same idea could be applied to credit card debt and student loans.
Our problem is too much debt. More debt will not fix it. Debt reduction of the people will.
Do this for the people, balance the federal budget and you will go down in history as one of this countries greatest presidents.
Sincerely,
Robert D. Arlen
48085 Colony Farm Cir.
Plymouth Mi. 48170
I don’t think I’m alone in seeing startling similarities between what is going on in Washington today and what went on in Berlin 1920-1924 or thereabouts. Inflation became so bad in Germany that retailers would not accept Marks. Employees were paid twice a day becasue of the changes in inflation dailly. Our pain, however, is limited by our life span. The nation does not haver such a luxery!
With interest rates going up, I assume that people like myself (retired), with most of our investment funds in short term treasuries, will benefit from higher returns on notes and bonds? Perhaps enough to keep up with inflation?
Christians call this the end time, Buddhist something else and Mayans said 2012 was an important cycle change.
I think we will have a different economy in the future. Some kind of climate economy. Less competition and more cooperation i guess.
Gold, Ag Commodities, staple retail, companies that meet everyday needs in a struggling economy, inverse ETF’s.
Gold, Ag Commodities, staple retail, and companies that meet everyday needs in a struggling economy, as well as inverse ETF’s, would be my direction for survival.
Good Morning From Central Ohio,
Absolutely LOVE your column and your great array of team mates. We are a 70 year old couple, “retired” from owning retail clothing stores for 20 years now. After selling our stores, I could not get a job in this field although I had 30 years of great well known success. I invested in a “start up” restaurant where I did everything but cook, and we were successful. After selling this to my partner, I became a sometimes Maitre de, oftentimes waiter, a job I still work at today.
We realized shortly after selling our business that our lifestyle must change, and we adapted to a totally “debt free” life which we maintain today. Our two daughters and their husbands have followed this approach and are fabulously successful.
I have felt for the past 15 years, since the rejection by Republicans of the 1994 “contract with America” , that America was headed into socialism, and a massive division of classes. In my restaurant work I am surrounded by 90% co-workers who have absolutely no life skills, knowledge of anything other than cell phones and American Idol, and no plan at all except government as their support system. Our public education system has failed, obesity is rampant, and now I am still paying taxes and social security to support the ignorant. Our country is in a death spiral because there is absolutely no Self Responsibility required of this now over 50% dependent class, and I cannot see any hope coming.
Your insights are very helpful in my financial and moral decision making. Michael Manley- Granville, Ohio
Hi Martin,Thank you for your very thorough research which has been of great help.However I dont agree that the dollar will collapse.The recent strength in stock and commodity markets has gone hand in hand with a much weaker dollar.I feel that once the dollar starts strengthening,the markets will resume their downward path and take out march lows.Many press articles are writing about the dangers of inflation but whilst credit is contracting there can only be 1 outcome.Deflation!Keep up the good work.Regards Willem
Well given a couple of years I could have driven your economy out of the worst of its disaster, just some.
1 Democracy is a serial dictatatorship Obama, for the American people should not look to the next election but act now. He has lost the next election even now, it is no sacrifice to do what is best.
I think keep one of each, one bank, one automaker.
The failing loans either buy them, the house or push the interest rates down to serviceable rates.
The freed up money will largely disappear I expect, but thats what it is doing anyway!
The losses would be less, the currency probably stronger and if it is housing the state can even own some of that.
The free market is a farce and should be free of most of the current drivers.
I am happy to help Mr. President.
As a small business man for 36 years, seeing good times and bad, I have come to this conclusion in life:
I agree with the Bible, 2 Chronicles 7:14 if my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from Heaven and will forgive their sins and heal their land.
I think the same God who has delivered us thru all the past bad times you mentioned, will save our land again, Amen.
America has a very important purpose on this earth and if we allow God to use us, he will, if not their are others he will use.
Dear Martin, It is a bit foolish to go against the markets, No ? As of today most of the world markets are rising (Brazil especially) . I know we are both right. you are right to be short long term, at least I believe it, because of the kiss of death of rising interest rates on treasuries (The Fed has no power at all on this market) I know I am right to play temporarily the markets, even the US markets, on the long side. But I still see a big inflation surge coming and commodities prices on the rise. I am very long Gold and Silver Metals and Gold shares too. I am long (OIL) and am long (TBT) Inversed Treasuries. I am short the US Dollar, because China is now making SWAP agreements, the last one with Argentina and this is very important because for their trades they do not use the USD anymore. China is trying to protect their USD and they are now increasing their Gold reserves. How can the USA compete with stupid unions that only know to ask and ask. Your unions in the US have gone blind. The same Unions (UAW and others) that were to protect the workers are now destroying them. I feel that America has gone way over the line believing that it could do anything it wanted financially, because of its military power, because the USD is the World currency. Now you in the US have a real problem of credibility and if there is no credibility there is no confidence and confidence is the primary engine for business. I am really sorry not only for America, but for Europe too. How do you expect people to save money if this money is like sand in hand ? It is as if these governments would incite people not to save ! America is not anymore the land of the free. America has as Europe, too many (Fonctionnaires in French) officials. In the ancient Greece if I remember well taxes never surpassed 10% and the fonctionnaires were very restricted. ALL THIS MONEY IS A LIE !
WALL-STREET is the Biggest Casino in the world. Even the word Investor makes me smile ! Aren’t we after all all Specualtors ????? Good luck in your shorts Martin, but as a speculator I need my flexibility and am long the markets now unti July. Best to you.
Dear Martin,
What money I have left to invest will go into gold stock.
Thank you for all that you do for your people.
Henry
Hello Martin and to all your team. I am sitting here in London, England, eating my lunch and reading your sensible and practical observations about the US economy. What is applicable to the US is, I am sure, also true about the UK. It is hard to see how all this will end up. Today is my 70th birthday and I have become a very conservative investor. Our houshold has no significant debt, some assets, mainly in the shape of our house and some cash in the bank. I have started to ‘dabble’ (as we say here in England!) in the stock market, but only in UK blue chip companies with no debt (at the moment!) and a good dividend record. I subscribe to Stephen Bland’s monthy HYP (high interest portfolio) letter with a monthly recommendation. He is a London-based financial analyst and I find his views and recommendations perfectly suited to my situation. If I was living in the US I am sure that I would subscribe to yours!
Keep up the good work, I am sure that eventually we will get out of this mess, but it is hard to see it happening any time soon.
best regards
David Little
gold
Dear Martin,
I lost most of the money that I had invested before I came to know of your group.
What little I have left, I plan to buy gold stock. I do not think that we are out of
the woods, I think that we are only beginning this dark decline of America into the
worst depression one can think of.
Henry
Psalm 34: 3 & 10
And with all that said we are living in denial. “Money managers” and “CFA’s” recommend staying in the market in their own self interests. The market has “enjoyed” a technical rally that still continues against all fundamental logic. My sense is that, just as we saw last year, the final result of the current run (bubble?) will be even greater pain. We are on the verge of a collapse.
As a “former residential builder” in Michigan and having homes in both Mi and FL, I saw this train wreck coming at least 8 years ago…when everyone was buying mini-mansions on adjustable rate mortgages….people spent like their was no tomorrow…I warned everyone I could..of course, people thought I was nuts….it is no surprise that when Obama became President, he warned of Depression “unless we approved his stimulus” and as soon as it passed “we were in recovery”. Wall street wants us to believe in green shoots but with the help of the phony tarp and the knowledge that the taxpayers would not fall for that one again….bank stocks, all of a sudden, soared (so the banks could re-capitalize themselves by their rising stock prices)…of, course, no one wants to see the elephant in the room…the toxic assets they are hiding that will be growing each day as the prime mortgages start to go bad due to fallen home values….then, will see how really bankrupt the banks and this country really are..and credit card and commercial defaults are just starting to give them the final knock out punch.
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT TO ESSENTIALLY DESTROY THIS NATION, AS THE FOUNDING FATHERS INTENDED, BEGAN IN THE 1900′S AND HAS CONTINUED UNABATED TO THE PRESENT DAY. BARACK H. OBAMA IS A FIGURE HEAD FOR THE SUPER WEALTHY CONTROLLERS TO BRING THIS COUNTRY DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY, AND THERE IS NOTHING WHICH CAN CHANGE THIS ULTIMATE FATE. IT IS TRUE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA IS GOING THE WAY OF GENERAL MOTORS, HOWEVER; WE WILL FIRST SUFFER THE HYPERINFLATION OF THE WEIMAR REPUBLIC AT WHICH TIME A TOTALITARIAN REGIME WILL EMERGE, AND TAKE OVER THIS COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE THE END OF WHAT THIS GREAT COUNTRY ONCE WAS.
Martin you asked where I believe there is money to be made in the near future. I believe it is in short term technical based trading strategies by following the best in the business. Currencies are probably one area where there are opportunities. I feel the medium term investing is not a runner at the moment as the markets are trading on momentum and not based on fundementals. In fact they seem to be trading in the opposite direction to fundamentals and sanity. Therefore medium term investing is dangerous at the moment as you could find yourself 50% offside before things start coming your way. Things are scary at the minute, but these lunatics could succeed in convincing the market that everything is rosy for quite a while yet!
Hi I do agree with Anastaia Weaver,William Weaver,Joe Pastorek,Cecil T Richardson,Bill Nickerson.My Father Was A Sailor too!He used to tellMOM when they were in the STORM all they had isFaith in the Almight.I say lisen to good advice and we will get through.You have to try not die.Even if the Market is down it will go up. What goes up it will come down.But when it is down and is in the GRAVE WE THINK OF A RESURECTION. It is Jackop`s Trouble But The LORD IS IN CONTROL and HE siad that HE WILL GET US OUT OF IT!HAVE A GOOD DAY! LOVE to all of AMERICA AND GOD BESS ALL AMERICA! J.G.S.B.
Hi everyone,
I am not American; I am British, however I live not in the UK but in Europe – and just like you, I have to listen to people telling me that my country is finished on a daily basis, they tell me the UK depended too heavily on financial services, it did not protect its manufactuing base and so it is bankrupt and to cap it all we have a massive scandal regarding our parliamentarians fiddling their expenses. Perhaps you have that still to come, I sincerley hope not – So how do I respond to my fellow Europeans who feel we have been rightly brought down to earth with a big bump & how should you respond?
Well the first thing is that you are America, that is where you come from. Things may change but the land, the people and the country are not going anywhere – you have had this & more through out your history and each time you emerged stronger. As a nation you have faced much more than a few greedy and socially irresponsible individuals trying to undermine your way of life, you will come out of this a stronger, leaner and more advanced country in the long run. There is no doubt about that from my perspective. There may even be an argument that your needed this to modernise your infra structure and stay ahead of the competition – But and there is always a but, you need a vision, you also need strong leadership, clear thinking and the will to do what needs to be done, painfull though it may be.
I am not sure that your current leaders are able to provide that, they are inexperienced and as yet untried – but there is another constant and largely untapped resource that can provide all of those things; the people. They are the ones who are suffering the financial loss, whose pensions and savings have been undermined, whose jobs are on the line or gone, whose homes may be repossesed and whose future is uncertain. They now have a clear choice, they can sit back and let it all happen or they can excercise the true meaning of democracy by demanding accountablity and leadership from their leaders. Not as a mob but as a democratic process; strong, determined and focussed upon clear objectives. Its time to get it all out in the open, to really understand the size of the problem, save what can be saved, rebuild the infra structure and set things right.
The first thing to do must be to stabilise the systems, the second must be to determine the short term course required to avoid any further wrecks and the 3rd must be to use the country’s natural resources to repair the damage before finally setting America back on a steady course. There is no other way to do it, correctly organised, the drive, the direction and the practical solution must come from the people; it will be the American people who clear up this mess, not their politicians or the bankers.
There was nothing wrong with the original plan (free market, capital based society), but with so many players and such a complex and diverse system the rules have to be both understood & observed by everyone, and above all sensible state regulation must be in place to monitor the game and stop cheating or manipulation that will unfairly or wrongly disrupt the structure.
When the Banks started to fail, some said let them go to the wall they are the same as any other business, while others said no they are the corner stone of our society and they must be preserved at all costs. The 1st option of cutting free the dead weight would have been quick and very painful with some considerable collateral damage at the time but it would have been over sooner while the 2nd option of a slower controlled crash landing still had the potential end result of hitting the ground at some time in the future, some said it has simply delayed the inevitable. Lets face it neither one was a very popular choice but a choice was made and America opted for the slow controlled crash landing. You must forget now that the money pumped into saving the banks and keeping them on board could have created up to 10 healthy financially robust banks, fuelled your economy and set in motion the mechanism for recovery, and all within the rules of a free market economy. That opportunity has passed, the 2nd option can achieve the same result, so look to the future it is what you do next that will make the difference. I am certain that you will continue with the American dream and build a better future
And what do I say to the UK’s critics? well they are correct in what they say in the short term but the truth is that we will survive this crisis, with our institutions, and our systems if we do what I am advocating that America does. As for myself – I did not rely on my governement or my bankers, I make my own pension and I guard my wealth in a very conservative way. I have made some money on the “bear market rally” and we shall see if Dr Weiss is correct about it falling further, I suspect he is right – but the tea party idea was the best thing to do – but it did not go far enough, do it again but on a bigger scale and address all the issues. Let the politicians know that there will be a day of reckoning and don’t forget the strength of America is its Entrepreneurial spirit, its can do attitude and its desire to succeed.
There is also change coming in the UK, you have just had your elections and you have elected your leader – we will have our elections very soon and then I will have my say.
Good luck to you all and may you have every success for the future.
Yes, we can survivie and we will! We need to get off foreign oil, get the immigration under control, repel the 14th amendment to grant automatic citizenship rights to non-citizens and limit foreign investments in America. All other countries do this this as a matter of course. Until rights are completely recipicatl we should not extend citizen rights to non-citizens. Do not concern ourselves with what the world thinks but do what is best for the US. Promote America, buy American and tax foreighn products like they do our products. Tell China/Korea/Ira/Europe to piss off and nuc Afghanistan if the Muslims terrorists get control of the government. Reduce ties with Israel and go back toa gold standard. We still control the world economy lets start flexing our might!
What do I think of all this? The rise and fall of empires happens all throughout history.
We are no exception to the law of gravity, except most Americans have been snoozing
while the man behind the curtain (the new world order) has moved in, taken our Country,
our liberty, our freedom, our independence and now they have taken our money too.
I will not be surprised when we all wake up one morning and there will be a new world currency to replace the dollar, a new North American Union (the reason why our borders have been so pourous forever) and six billion people will be the puppets that we are to a massive “one world Government” just as it was planned so long ago. Crazy you say? I never dreamed it could happen, but look at the breakneck speed at which “the Obama deception” has been moving.
We will make it through. The price to pass through is heavy and painful. My advice is to listen to Dr. Weiss; yet listen to others too . As a pro portfolio mgr I did, and my portfolio was down 8 % last year and up 38 % this year. I did not lose much last year because of Dr Weiss, and I made a lot this year because of others. I will give all you one advice …… read the very first comment by Chaloke from Bangkok . Also, I do feel this bounce is just a bull rally in a bear market… so it is getting very near to taking profits.
It is time to batten down the hatches “tightly”, and hold on. The US will recover to some degree and will be more or less equal to some of our neighbours. Those which have been subjected by the US will find an equal base and be more competive than the US. There are too many voters in the land of La – La, and too lazy to read and study their Voter Informational guide. The US has fallen into a false economy and has ignored marality. When people start returning to their church is when the economy will return to normalcy.
Another war is just another false economy. WAKE UP AMERICA ; THE PARTY IS OVER ; IT’S TIME TO GET SOBER
The trouble of today did not start last week,month or year !, it’s been going on for 30 years and more. GM and the rest of the Auto makers turn a blind eye, 80% of the money was made from the avg.person. Ford started making cars, the avg person could afford – the trouble is the “what if factor ” was blinded by GREED and dumbest to put it nicely. One problem we have is credit cards,when people lost the fell for money – “easy money” NOT SO EASY !!! LOANS “NOT SO EASY, LOST OF RIGHT OFFS, THE DOLLAR BUYS LESS. Not to mention the lost of farms, and businesses that are and have been for over 45 years – move off shore to other countrys – all for the BUCK and less control of “how things are made”. In short people like Milken, Madoff and people that just think others are “low lifes” and firms alouded to sell ” THE KINGS COTHES” ( not real) are the ones that have put a hole in the ship – no repect for how a young country became the best – and still is the best for the worst for all the Dumbest over the past. The money is not in Wall St. – it’s in the street and farms in the factorys in the people 3,000 mile for the street – without the farm products WALL ST. would have nothing to sell .
Most of all that is told to us is INVEST for TOMORROW !!! todays young is tomorrows future, we have Planes, Trains and Auto -mo – blis, we need to remove the bad apples so that they don’t get TO THE MARKET . Other wise we will have to change the sign over the courts to IN GOD WE TRUST – ALL OTHERS PAY CASH.
The America most people know is vanishing before our very eyes. Between the massive debt and the destruction of the US dollar, the course is set in a similar manner as the Titanics course was set after it rammed the iceberg. People tend to remain optomistic long past the point of reason and then when their optomism finally breaks, it takes generations to restore the faith and trust. The Federal Reserve and Poliltical dictators of America have smashed into dust the faith. History tells the same tale about every civilization that has tried the path America is on. IT is DOOMED to FAIL! I do not plan for a recovery, but survival of the pending destruction.
The America I grew up in is over with. The very idea to give the RICH so much free money. it is criminal. They are still in the big homes. Lot’s of money in the bank. One banker lives 3 doors away. Got only 1/2 of his $5,000,000 so called bones. while I am trying to keep my home and pay his fat income. In the beginning of this great country the criminals on Wall Street would be in jail or hanged. When we refuse to follow the original constitution we are doom. The volcano two years ago destroyed by farm. in Hawaii, 50 years of my life was gone. Heck the insurance did not cover me. but AIG and the big shots got Billions. Yet for many years they collected my insurance payments. “Oh it did not cover acts of God” Washington could not wait to give AIG billions. and to stick it up our butt. gave each other bonese for a job well done. Screwed the government and tax payers out of billions. Yes, the job was well done. There are not any honest men or women left in Washington D C as well as very few reporters….. any thing for a buck… telling state secrets . the emeny of our country don’t need spies.. just watch the local news. These same people laugh at Heavenly Father (God) well friends who will get the last laugh. No, our wonderful country will not make it. maybe my great great grand kids might be able to get it back… as an old saying “Let me control the currency of a nation I could care less who makes the laws” how very true it is now. The banker, brokers and elected officials have stolen more money in a year than all the robbers in history put together. I am glad I am 84 and not have to see the finial fall. I regret each day when I wake up. Don’t worry I will not cost the tax payers any money or the insurance company. I no longer can afford my insurance…
Dear Martin,
You missed the big rally since March. Which may only be a bear market rally but it is still a rally. You should read Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital April Investment letter. It sounds some dire notes. But yet he is strong on Gold and US Dollar, because the other world economies (Western Europe for example) are much more highly leveraged than the USA. We are witnessing a time of global transformation. Capitalism as we know it is dying. It is going to be replaced, by a monetary and fiscal system that is more realistic, less greedy, and more compassionate. The days of fiat currency’s are over. But the USA is still going to come out ok. India and some parts of Asia are going to be ok.—All the best and may the world be blessed with prosperity and peace. Because the reality is nature is full of abundance.
GM and the auto companies lobbied themselves into extinction. Their will be more to follow and they deserve the disaster they created for themselves and the country. Until usury is repealed and the financial sector money changers, which only produces paper products, lose their preeminence in the American society these disasters will continue unimpeded because the the CORPORATE WELFARE KINGS will be bailed out with taxpayer dollars. This is COMPULSORY CAPITALISM, Fascism, and is totalitarian as Sovietism and is in fact Fascism. This is also the end of economic freedom in the USA. The CORPORATE WELFARE KINGS ARE THE beneficiaries of this COMPULSORY CAPITALISM. Capital markets are needed, as imperfect and corrupt as they are, because they provide decentralization and channel capital resources to those segments of society which benefit the with society. To be functional, capital market investment decisions must be made by those parties who have decided to invest in the capital markets as they see fit and are responsible for their decisions. People may not want to invest in capital markets because of their corruption or averse to risk. Government making decisions using taxpayers funds eliminates responsibility and financial freedom and is totalitarian as defined by Franklin Roosevelt in 1938.
Good Morning Martin,
Thank you for all of your great advise. My wife and I have all of our retirement money in index annuities. The company is North American Life Insurance Company and several other Ins. companies.
These annuities grarantee 8% growth until we take the money out to live on. At 70 we can take 6% for the rest of our life. The company is A + rated by AM Best. I’m thinking that this is a safe investment which will guarantee our investment will double in the next ten years.
Do you know of a safer investment that will yeild 8% growth for my retirement dollars and guarantee me 6% income for the rest of my life. I’m looking forwrd to your response. Sincerely Chuck Holman chuckholman65@gmail.com
big trouble, this government is killing small businesses, quality of real life, our dollar, seems they are totally out of control. They even passed a law in 2008, if your leaving with your $$, then you have to pay upfront this governments 50% tax . Lets face it, they will do what ever they want to do, seems there is nothing wwe can do EXCEPT ALL march onto our states capitals and washington DC all on the same day, do a we are not taking this any more, stop working, paying taxes, etc, that is REALITY on how to stop this insanity Ok, BUT how many of us are willing to do that, I ask them on tax day, what do you have, a mortaged home, auto, false secure money? they just look bewildered. We have to get organized and mean what we say and represent, telling these insane leaders of our economic life to hit the road, probally it’s time for another revolution Ok. Revolutions are not bad, they come along about every 200 years to level out the playinfg field again, called taking our country back again. PROBLEM is big brother is watching everything , survallience every where, tvs, cell phones, fincen computor data on every individual, I also heard troops comming back from over seas are in ft benning georgia, getting retrained, guess for what?? CROWD CONTROL. Very scary times indeed so unless we the people tajke a bold step how can this insane machine be turned off or in thhe right direction which is not GREEDY people looking to line their pockets no matter what, what do you say about this??
hi all
i have been reading all your coments and realise that there is a lot of bitterness out there in the hearts of men. people are over worked and under paid, they are loosing all their savings to keep up bills. I being one of them, I dont know much about savings, i will like to learn, but twice i put my money with brokers and i ended up with nothing, so i am a bit sceptical about investment until i understand it fully.
However, as i was saying before, these things have been written to happen if you read the book of Revelation chapter 8. You will find your answers there.
I am not saying dont save, but you need to know that without CHRIST on the scene, it is all a waste and yes America needs to wake up just as United Kingdom and every other country that used to put GOD first and now think they know it all and dont need HIM anymore. this is a wake up call for the whole entire world not just america and i believe that if we can just come HIM with a humble heart, we will find that it is not all lost.
So in conclusion, i will encourage that those amongst you that are christians should start taking the place of authority and let GOD reign
Ayo london
ps, if there is any one on one training or simpler way you can help me understand the trading world please feel free to contact me
Short Stocks – Long Gold – Take cover!!!
To anyone out there who are worried about fidelity’s exhorbitant brokerrage fees eating up your meager 10k fund imitating Dr Weiss’ 1 miilion $ contrarian portfolio, sogotrade’s $3 per trade offer sounds like a much better deal. I tried it and loved it. Lots of immediately available info about the stock you want to buy BEFORE you hit the “order” button.
What we have is a capitalistic society with socialistic tendencys where we are becomming more and more dependent upon local, state and federal goverment and their agencys to do for US what we should be doing for ourselves. What we had was a whole lot of credit with very little equity and the assets where way over valued.
The only way out of this mess I can see may be via ITC ( Investment Tax Credits ) to stimulate investment back into this country. Thank you for everything you are doing and God help US. We are going to need it.
John E. Hagan
[JohnHagan@insightbb.com ]
I am an insurance broker in the Western Catskills of NYS.
There has been a steady decline in the economy here for the last 50 years due to the manipulations by New York City – we’re in the watershed.
I know and have seen poverty and what it can do socio-economically.
The way out of our situation in the US and the world is not to concentrate on assets and wealth but on dreams, new ideas, innovation, sales, cashflows. And, cashflows will be derived from what people use everyday – food, clothing, shelter, repair of machinery…
etc.
The USD will probably will do no worse than most of the world currencies. But expect a 30 to 50% rate of annual inflation as a guess. It is important to assure a food supply as well as all the essentials as one would in the country in the 1840’s.
New opportunities will develop and lifestyle changes are in the wind. Expect the sunspot activity and energy and magnetism drop in the sun – most pronounced in the last cycle in 2005 to lead to colder weather – mini ice age, food shortages, famine, pantemic/epidemic, social disruptions and war. The last time that the solar clock was reset was 1928, but we really need to look back 500 years, possibly 2000.
My home heating fuel of choice is wood – I won’t pay for cap and trade. :-)
I’m working on some forgotten ideas for electricity and will need government clearance, then marketing.
There are alternative fuel firms waiting in the wings – funding not needed, only acceptance and efforts.
There are new technology manufacturing firms – locally that need start up money now but can’t find the funding anywhere.
We have enormous energy resources that are out of reach by design.
And, I’d like to know who the leaders of the new world order are. I was born in 1948, so the concept of one world government, one currrency, no second amendment … are alien to me.
The current trend line spells the demise of the cities.
Looking back over my educational experiences (HS,BA,American Institute’s CPCU, American College, NALU, Finance) and too many years in insurance – The one 10 cr hr course that stands out from the rest is World Civilization. We are at the beginning of a new chapter.
It’s all about our resources, not money. Money for commerce, yes – back to basics.
Did I answer your question?
John Nichols
Reference: Marquis; Strathmore, etc.
Martin,
My comments are limited to the GM thing.
In the 1960s I worked for GM for five years, first on various assembly lines as a union member (now you know where this is going) and then as a salaried member of (low end) management (personnel department).
During that time I privately criticized the company for its many concessions to the union (IUE) mostly due to (in my opinion) a great economy and a management reluctant or unable (due to weakness) stand up to the unions and their ever-increasing demands. I believe they thought things would go on forever, giving more and more to the union, mortgaging the future by agreeing to extend health care and pensions without considering competion or hard times. The union folks knew that, even if they had obtained everything the workers needed, they were obligated to seek more and more with each contract, lest the workers feel a gap in representation, and vote them out (sounds like Washington, doesn’t it).
Now GM and Chrysler (but why not Ford?!) are unable to weather the current storm. Why not, it was only on for a year when both collapsed? The reason was years of financial abuse (not George Bush, as the current mantra of the left would have us believe).
Back in those years (60s, 70s), the unions were not even forced to attack each of the “Big Three” individually. The UAW merely picked a “target” company, threatened their strikes and slowdowns, arrived at yet another coup for their members, and the results were given to the other two car companies who simply fell into lockstep with the target company.
Now we are in a situation with a commander in chief who is in concert with the unions, probably owes them, and who has done outrageous things to a once-proud industry (e.g. firing a GM CEO, unheard of and considered impossible right up until the moment it actually happened).
The unions did not destroy the American auto industry single-handedly. Management was asleep at the switch. Starting with Henry Ford (“give ‘em any color they want, as long as it’s black”), American car companies have been arrogant, bringing out new models only distinguished from the prior year model by the amount and placement of chrome, fins, or other $10 items. The stockholders certainly played roles, as usual, by demanding larger profits, dividends, and the “current balance sheet” mentality. Attention to ergonomics (look up that word, Detroit) were not invented by the Japanese or Germans, but they both made much money from the concept here in America, all as Detroit continued to turn out clunkers.
Unions were once needed to curb abuses by greedy managers and company owners, there is no doubt. But their real contribution to the success of the American people, both workers and consumers, ended long ago, their contribution ended, but the unions didn’t. Now it appears they are coming into a new age of control, one that certainly will last until there is a change in government in Washington.
We will survive, by the tooth and nail. We will have to see more people suffer before it happens.
We are on the cusp of THE GREAT Depression.
I think it is tragic that GM survived so many catatrophies and was not able to survive six months of this current administration. I will personally never buy a car made by “Government Motors” or anything the government offers for sale. I would rather drive my used junkers or do without. For the first time in my life I feel very depressed about our future as a country and cannot believe people in this country are so numb to reality that they cannot see what is coming.
I sent you a letter yesterday, but did not receive your comments or advice.
Currencies……my passion is currencies. Personally, I am a dollar bull. I shall await your comments if i should hold this view or change…..if to change, please advise on the currency pair or pairs you would advocate.
Regards,
Kishin.
Dear Martin
I have read your column’s with interest over the past few years. As a south African i spent 35 years in the investment business in NY London and largely Toronto. My first bond trade was done the day Herstadt fell in the mid 70’s and inflation was flying. Managing a bond desk in 1980 was I believe a wonderful training for what we are about to witness in the North American markets and likely those of Europe as well. Stagflation was the name of the day, Money Supply numbers were all important and the bond market was surprisingly liquid given the bond losses being wracked up by investors.
I am now a consultant located in lagos Nigeria and maybe from afar it is interesting to see the reactive policy stances of the “developed economies”. Clearly nobody in power was listening to the Robert Schilller’s of the world who were screaming from the rooftops that the Refi and mortgage mess could only end in tears.
My investment choices are:
Long gold and gold related stocks, find small caps in Canada, US or Soutrh America
Long Oil and Oil services. Buy the Canadian Dollar and invest in oil plays there
Long Arternative energy plays, particularly those firms that are already established and can move quickly as oil breaks first the $100 barrier and then the $150 and stays there. Nigerian Govt bonds yielding 10%+ might be interesting for the adventurous as the $/Naira will move again up to the 110 level
Africa is a good lonfg term play if one is careful about corruption and its influences
Sell The S&P 500
Sell Lonfg US Treasuries and Sell Long UK Gilts
Hope this is of use
Regards
malcolm Gilroy
I think gold and silver will continue inch up. I need to set up a income stream. I hope as the interest rates continue to go up, you will let us know how to take advantage so we can lock in some good rates for a considerable time span.
Thanks for your help thus far.
I believe America’s citizens are in for a really tough time over the next few years. I expect that inflation in this country will hit unprecedented levels. Let’s face it the Chinese hold the cards. This is why they are beginning to buy up commodities(copper, gold, etc…). I read an article not long ago by Byron King about the Chinese, already having a 95% stake in rare earth metals, and buying a majority stake in the last independent miner of those metals (an Aussie company called Lynas (may be misspelled)). It was interesting to note that these metals are used in TVs, Computers, and guided missile systems. Does this mean no more smart bombs without Chinese approval? Ooops! Scary stuff!!!! Just think if America doesn’t dance correctly the Chinese coupled with North Korea could be trouble.
I expect we will see massive inflation. My guess the next big bubble may be agriculture. It may be the best place to be. Let’s face it the Chinese still have to eat; Their ag production capabilities, from what I understand, fall far short of feeding themselves. This is, as far as I can tell, America’s only strong card.
As a younger investor starting today, I believe that you have to weigh the good with the bad. I also have to look at some of these posts, such as a couple above me, spelling out the doom of capitalism. To me is rather comical, because what got us in this mess is a continued move away from capitalism or a market economy to begin with. The markets today that a move us back in the direction of a market economy. This is most evident
As far as dollar devaluations, to the elder investor this would spell disaster, such as my own parents who refuse to listen to reason, and are holding investments as taught in the past because it brought them prosperity only to see it crash before their eyes in the time they would be counting on such investments in retirement and the golden years. To the younger investor you can see a long term growth prospect as a cheaper currency will force America into producing what it consumes. While the short term is dire, the long term looks better.
I don’t think that there can be any other investment plan out there that makes more sense in the short term as brought my Dr. Wiess. I personally have the belief that short funds and commodity based stocks and funds are the way to make and hold are way through this.
My only advice is to keep your hands in the car during the duration of the ride.
Hi Guy’s
I have been reading with great interest over the last number of months your newsletters and wishing that you might be wrong on how bad things are but last week i heard on the Irish Radio that GM had gone and remembered reading your warning on this very thing.
I hope to god you do get through this
Dear Martin: I’m a 69 years old retiree that REGRETFULLY trusted GM corporation and putted
a big chunk of my life-savings in GM bonds. That happened five years ago and I wasn’t lucky
enough to read your prediction in 2005 that GM will go bankrupt !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now is too late to cry over the big mistake I did in trusting not only GM Corporation but the
whole American government and institutions !!!!!!
The way GM in connivence with the Obama administration are ruining, destroying, demolishing
LIQUIDATING , the life savings of hundred thousands american citizens to favor the UAW is
UNJUST, UNFAIR, ILLOGICAL, HORRENDOUS, CAPRICIOUS,UNRELIABLE,MERCILESS attack
on the CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS OF THE AMERICAN CITIZENS …..A COMPLETE DISREGARDS
TO THE ” EQUALITY UNDER THE LAW ” !!!!!!
It’s clear for this Obama administration that the UAW HAVE A PRIVILEGE THAT THE
COMMON CITIZEN DOESN’T HAVE !!!!!!! WHY ????????? SURE !!!!!! THE UAW MADE A
HUGE CONTRIBUTION FOR THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN !!!!!!!!!!!!!
The unjust, harsh treatment of the GM bondholders by this administration is more typical of
a communist regime or a fascist regime !!!!!!!Not a truly democratic government, not a truly
Constitutional government….The GM private bondholder had no say at all in the restructuring
plans of GM that favored the UAW and the Treasury !!!! In place of liquidating GM that expanded TREMENDOUSLY in China, Latinamerica, Germany, Korea , etc, etc, etc, with the
BONDHOLDERS MONIES……..GM and the Obama administration is LIQUIDATING THE AMERICAN
BONHOLDERS !!!!!!!! This is the ” CHANGE ” promised by Obama during the presidential
election campaign ??????????
The real change ocurring now are that The Bill of Rights, Equality under the Law, Fairness,
Justice, Democracy…….are upside-down !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111
GOD SAVE AMERICA.
back when the off shore cars started taking over the market and it took years for them to try to make cars as good (Quality wise) which last year finaly started to happen they were the least efficent in the industry.one more bad year in sales has destroyed them.
no adjustments were made to reduce cost in a serious manner. if you don’t do the business as well and hopefully better, you are going to go out of business. even when you can sell stock and raise cash. without offering any security to the suckers (er sorry) stock holders.
regards richard
Sir:
I was in Detroit for severel years and the GM accounts for all Divisions of GM except Oldsmobile were my accounts. I started the Flint SS for GE and watched the unions ruin the different plants. I drove GM cars because they were the ones provided in my job, but when I retired never rowned one again because of the roblems in constant repair over the years. Luck does not solve their problems. Hard work is in order.
Fred Sallade’
the gov. is the biggist business. we need to fix that first not last
I completely agree with Rick with one exception. I believe we are on the eve of the fall of America as we have known it to be, Financially we are no longer the world’s leader
and the Dollar is becoming undesirable as a security blanket for invesment. The rest of the world wants another form of monetary security such as the Euro or SDR’s. This situation brings a past empire to mind, it was called the Roman Empire – everyone having vast amts. of debt and living a life style no one could afford.
I firmly do not believe in wall street and am no longer invested in stocks or bonds.
I have gone back to the basics of saving and $OOO.OO debt. The amazing things is, it feels great to be free of encumbrance and not losing anything as I watch the markets I was once in, drop like a stone… Like Masada – never again…
Dear Mr. Weiss,
Thank you for the information you have been sending me. I wish I had the funds to invest in your contrarian fund. Ten years ago I had a thriving business exporting live seafood to Japan. Annual sales were almost 5 million in a six month term. But I listened to George Gilder and his Gilder Technology Report via Forbes Magazine and I lost a bundle
on the stocks he touted. Then I lost my Japanese live market to Russian competitors and
today I have an accounts receivable problem that may put me under for good. I have an annuity at the Hartford that is not FDIC insured and I am nervous about their
condition. I notice they are not named on your list of troubled insurance companies
but I know they have exposure to credit default swaps and despite a painful early withdrawal penalty I am thinking of an early liquidation. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I saw you on Glenn Beck yesterday. He did a terrible job of managing the conversation.
I think that the country will survive but we may not be the domanint world power that we are today. energy, fuel(oil), food , fertilizer(to grow food), and comodities like gold are going to go up in value. This will probbly happen in the next few years.I am concerned that the goverment is going to eventually bankrupt the country.The goverment will attempt to hide this from the people for as long as they can.
I believe the best bet is to put money in Canadian and indonesian banks. In Canada you have two ways to make money one one interest and secondly on the appreciation of the canadian dollar. Indonesian the rate of return is great and the cost of living there is negligable I have lived there in the past. Gold a small portion of your money in it but not now it is to expensive. I have been in real estate but got out of it completely in 2007. Collectables like paintings, coins, and stamps too are all-right but as bit risky. Investing in central america laand e.g. Costa Rica may be all-right to buy a retirement home that is all. The sit back and enjoy what will be will be.
My fellow Americans, “WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU THINKING”? You blame the UAW. You blame GM mangement. You put all the blame but where it belongs. Answer me this, Why does it cost $25,000 to buy a Chevy Malibu here, but $50,000 in Japan? Why has GM paid $105,000,000,000 billion in healthcare the last 15 years. How much has Toyota Paid, or Honda and Nisson. How much Kia? HOW MUCH? GM pays and army 500,000 pensions here in the USA. How much does the Asians and Germans pay here? why did Ford and GM only export 10,000 vehicals into Korea and Japan last year but they imported 1.3 million here. Did you not pay attention to our trade deficits these last eight years? Was something said by anyone? YES, But it went unanswered. Both GM and the UAW beg for better leadership but it was not there. You do not like failure nor do I. BUT HELLS BELLS, DO NOT BLAME THE UAW AND GM OR CHRYSLER OR FORD. BLAME YOUR GOVERNMENT AND YOURSELVES FOR THIS IGNORANCE.
Dear Sir,
First I would like to thank you for your good work and for your courage to say things as they are even if it goes beyond public’s believe and specialist opinions.
I do not have your knowledge in finance and economics, but I must admit that a lot of what your are saying is true as back at the end of the 80’s I was working in the financial domain and yes I have served as an instrument to the system that dictated our bible as to recommendations or strong suggestions to make to our clients in regards to their portfolio. This is the world I know and recognize your knowledge and straightforwardness by.
All this being said, I would like to read your opinion about the Federal Reserve. Why does such an institute have so much power over the States and the World for a fact, while it is a private institution that is most certainly working in its own interest. What good can it bring to world economy besides serving, maybe under false pretexts, the good reason of being? Why is it, that most of the Countries have a debt based economy? Is it not illusive to believe that there is no remedies to that and keep dishing hard earned dollars to encourage such illusion?
I am sure that I am not the only one that think the same and look forward to reading an article or two of your’s with the same integrity as you have always shown, if it is not threatening to you to do so.
Again, congratulations to you and your teem for the good work.
Oh yes, we will survive and thrive eventually. Precious metals, green energy, & job creation & more insight in a balanced political environment may be helpful. Just wish I had a larger chunk going in to follow your Contrarian Portfolio. And may God Bless you Sir.
I think that we need to puch the panic button when the U.S. Dollar Index drops below 70 (to 69.99 or lower). At that point I would be inclined to convert stocks, bonds and cash into commodities, like gold, silver, wheat, etc.
this goverment of ours is selling us out and has been for a long time obama is spending money like it growes on trees he give all this bail out money to the wrong pepole he should have not bailed out anybody and left them go broke they could have had pepole back working fixing roads andbridges and all sorts of things and they should have helped pepole with morgages so they could stay in their homes our goverment stinks and its getting worse as we go obama and the congress had better get on their knees and ask the lord for guidance before its to late because god will bring this nation to its knees
I think so too. However we have be more aware of the enviroment and global warming going forward.
It does not look likely. The problem there is no balance in our governement now.
It is all controlled by one party and one that loves to waste money. They are anti-business, so business owners and workers will start losing the initiative to continue to work. Similar to what happened in communist Russia.
As a senior citizen who has saved money by living underneath our means and prepared for retirement in advance, I am appalled by the policies of both the Republicans and the Democrats. All they seem to do is meddle in everyone elses business, create more ridiculous legislation which favors special interests and debases our American standard of living with out of control spending of money which must be borrowed in increasingly large amounts. Meanwhile, seniors such as my wife and I, who depend on interest from our savings, are left in the lurch by ZIRP.
I have little sympathy for the bureaucrats in government who seem to live only for their own power. Further, the tax code of this country cannot be considered to be fair in any sense when almost half of our population reportedly pays no income tax whtsoever and the government sends them a rebate check anyway. All of these ills are symptomatic of a once great country now in serious decline–and deservedly so.
I subscribed to yours and your dad’s service around 1985 or 6 I believe it was.At that time the charge was 5000 dollars per year and the big prediction your dad made was
that GM was going bankrupt.Indeed it did….This time around,everything you are saying makes total sense and what is going on is sheer folley of the worst kind but it is hard
to know which way to jump.I fortunately cashed out of the market in june of 2007 much to my broker’s disgust and ridicule and have been in cash in Austsralian dollars
since.Today I am looking pretty smart but how about tomorrow.My cd’s (at 8%) come
due in august and the prevailing rate is now 3.5.Still thinking that keeping the money
out of our soon to be worthless dollar is the correct approach.
Why do those “that have” feel the rules don’t apply to them, rules are for other people? Like many good American families, we have taught all 8 of our children, some are grown and some still at home, to be HONEST and to give that honest day’s work for the honest day’s pay. We don’t understand the prevelant practice of unearned and unmerited bonuses we have heard so much of lately. We don’t understand how someone being paid too much already to run these companies feel such entitlement to such bonuses after they have failed to perform. Did they not learn basic math? Perhaps they felt the basic rules of business and economics were for “other people” as well. It’s pretty sad when we see even our youngest child understand the simple concept of you don’t spend it if you don’t have it and that is exactly what has hurt the entire global economy. We don’t have millions of dollars, not even thousands just sitting around. Every little increase at the pump or store is just one more stress on our family budget. We offer our gratitude for my husband’s employment everyday and are doing everything within our power to get by and save for the rainy day, why can’t the business world?
I believe everyone better hunker down, save some cash at home and some gold and silver. I also believe because of local break ins and crime people are starting to do what they do when they get desperate. this is beyond the normal criminal.
I believe your money is not going to stay very valuable for much longer, perhaps it will stay about 40% of value. I believe that making sure you can grow your own food even if you live in a condo. some is better than nothing. Our country is the roman empire and we are emploding because we have lost sight of God.
GM is in trouble because of stupid management. They failed to see that large vehicles that were gas guzzlers and poorly made would cause them to lose their share of the market to countries like Japan who wiselly shifted to moderate sized cars that were well built and outlasted american cars. Further , their policy of allowing the auto workers union to dictate their employee relationships was incredible. Hopefully they will learn by mistakes.
First, I’m very concerned about the American economy the collapse is only a matter of time and we will probably go into socialism. But the question is, will there be any better place to go.
I look at the action being in Asia, primarily China and Latin America primarily Brazil where I have investments.
Exceptions include Ford where I bought 2011 Leaps on Ford where I think we have a major turnaround happening before our eyes. I’m betting on Ford’s new CEO and believe we are seeing a real paradigm change. I’m somewhat familiar with what he did at Boeing. The only thing that might stop him is the UAW.
I think the new Taurus that is coming out this July will start the turn. With the reduced competition from GM and Chrysler a lot of people will buy Ford just because it will be perceived to be the only American Car and these new cars will be the best cars Ford has ever built. However the UAW is a parasite they must deal with.
I also bought long term Leaps on Qualcomm based on their break through on chip technology. This is a long term gamble but if it works like they think, it could be a massive advancement in the technology.
My primary holding, over 50% is in Gold related equities. This is because of my concern about the American market. I think we are heading for hyper inflation; it’s just a matter of time. I’m looking for ways to deal with inflation.
I’m prepared to move to inverse ETF’s if I see a collapse in the current rally.
Based on the current education situation in the US I think we are on the way to being a banana republic. While American education if falling apart and we are having trouble even getting kids through high school, in China education exploding particularly in Science, Engineering and Business. They have students in nearly every major university in the world.
Can you believe that in Korea the average wage was $289 per year in 1966 but they put their effort into education and it has gone from rags to riches. The US seems to be going in the opposite direction.
Our only hope in maintaining the US technology lead is to get the well educated people from other countries, they won’t be home grown. It will take over a generation to correct what our education system has done to us if we made the necessary changes today. The future looks grim for the US.
Fortunately I’m 72 and with any luck may not live to see the carnage.
http://townhall.com/columnists/WalterEWilliams/2009/06/03/dumbest_generation_getting_dumber
I am at my wits end, will it be run away inflation or deflation. How do i protect the assets i have worked over 50 years to accumulate? Help!!
Bankruptcy and a rescheduling of debts is the only solution for the numerous States and the
Federal Government. Payscales and benefits will have to be slashed significantly, the way FDR
did it. The troops in the Mid East will have to be brought home and the wars ended.
The US will have to stop borrowing Federal Reserve Notes from the private sector and start issuing “red label” interest free “US Notes” backed by Fort Knox gold, directly for infrastructure
and “CCC” type jobs. Gold will have to be revalued to about $1000/oz and Fed Notes will have
to be rebacked at least 20% by gold. Mortgage debt will have to be cut in half by fiat (ie an
emergency presidential order). Managed deflation needs to be the order of the day!
I live in Wichita, Kansas. We have had thousands of layoffs in the aircraft industry in the past few months (mainly producers of commercial aviation jets, although Boeing and Spirit Systems (builds parts of aircraft bodies for Boeing) are involved, also. The strangest thing is that when I go into a restaurant like Olive Garden here, the parking lot is almost full and business is good. I can name several other restaurants here that are doing very well (Cheddars). All of this leads me to believe that people here do not have any notion of what a real depression is (I am almost 81 and grew up during the depression. No doubt we are experiencing one of the severest recessions in memory and many people have lost a lot. Yet, I can remember in the 60’s when I worked for Boeing as an electrical engineer that Wichita seemed to suffer more than it is right now (“Last one to leave Wichita, turn out the lights”). Your prediction of a 5000 Dow is scary and I know the loss of all of these jobs in the U. S. has to have dire consequences. Yet, the American people are very vibrant and they will probably overcome somehow. I think the fact that people now have Social Security (as opposed to nothing during the depression) has a lot to do with the economy managing to survive). Being fortunate enough to have a little extra money to invest in riskier investments which produce income, I have been able to survive quite well (Have Penn West Energy Trust from Canada, Blackrock Debt Strategies, and Energy Transfer Partners, and GE for example). Yes, they are down a lot, but are still payin quite good dividends. Plus, I own farmland in Northwest Kansas and commodities have been paying good in the past year or so (Whest as high as $9.00 or $10.00 a bushel, etc.). I did get hurt on about $15,000.00 worth of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac preferred stock, however (which you correctly predicted would go to practically nothing– I called my broker and he said he would sell it for me, but he did not recommend it–so I did not and suffered).
I hope this gives you some insight in to how things are in Wichita. This recession has me mystified, because it is so unpredictable. I know we will pay with inflation, due to all of the govt debt, sooner or later.
Don Elliott
Cars from these now bankrupt companies will now be selling at bargain prices. This will pull from the others manufacturers sales for the next three to five years. If people aren’t buying from the healthy? manufactures how is the automotive industry going to survive, be it American or foreign and how will thisimpact the recovery?
In short, we need a “Federalist” type solution to the problem. Alexander Hamilton showed
us how to do it. FDR ( who was really a Federalist at heart) also showed us how to do it.
Democracy as we know it may need to end, and a return to a “quasi monarchist” State
lead by the military may be necessary to maintain order during the transition. This is because
Congress is too stupid and corrupt to get anything done. Our Nation is now in very grave
danger because of this. Extreme measures will be required.The alternative is chaos!
When can we expect interest rates for treasury bills to increase?
Hi Martin
The GM bankruptcy is one of the most clever manyvers yet. The Union was the biggtest winner, especially that GM can’t import any of their foreign brands. The biggest problem with all of this mess is the corporate legacy of GM itself. They have always done what they wanted to do, and the heck with the consumer. They know now that they will hereafter always have the govt. to support them with infusions and as such, do not have to worry further about insolvency. The way they handled the Hummer-Chinese matter is a good example. Obama will not step until he’s able to completely control everyone’s life in this coun try. We are now the United Socialist States of America. Investment wise, forget it, and run for the hills.
Regards,
R. L. Schanbarger., Gadsden, Al.
i have read your artical related to gm and america. that has provided lot of knowledge. thanks. money printing activitivity leading to higher inflation results in to higher commodity prices.i think golds appeal as safe heaven wiill increase significantly. thanks . do send me your reply
Martin, I am very concerned as the US gov needs to borrow more and more to fund it bloated budget/expendures we are sure to see inflation and interest rates increase greatly. I am not sure that our stock markets are intune to the real facts as the current run up can’t be justified by the unemployment numbers or any other measure so it must be driven by purely by emotion, greed or rose colored glasses/better described by stupitity. Some say the market has already included the effect of GM failure, but I doubt that any one can understand it’s effect fully.
So I am not confident that stock investments are a good choice unless I follow you bear market approach that I am following by joining your milliion $ contrairan group, but I haven’t seen any gain by that approach to date and for now as I am retired I am drawing down my short term savings rather than drawing from my IRA’s and trying to ride this out and I am getting more nervous day by day.
I am concerned that as the stock market goes up more and more the potential for a really fast drop to a new very low number is possible. This makes me very uncomfortable. The old addage that what goes up must come down seems to apply to more than the law of gravity.
Martin,
Thank you for telling us the reality of what’s going on. I’m a little guy investor but am taking your advice on getting out of debt and saving what I can. I know my neighbors and friends get lost when the government talks in trillions of dollars. They simply can’t wrap their brain around the crisis so they’re for the most part, ignoring it and living like it’s not real. Lots of blame to go around but I think the “Golden Goose” is almost dead. Unfortunately the American Experiment is taking a bad turn and I don’t hold much hope for our Bill of Rights staying intact over the next five years, the politicians may tinker with that just like they’re doing with the markets.
Martin,
Like so many others I share your concerns about the direction of the economy and the current policies. So far your analyses and forecasts have had a high level of accuracy. While no one can exactly call all the detailed turns of the market, your general predictions have been highly accurate, for example, your forecast several years ago that GM was in danger of collapse.
No less an authority than Robert Reich has recently gone on record as predicting that GM will not survive at all and that the reasons for providing assistance to the company were for policy reasons, not any rational business decision.
Until now you have been highly accurate about the economic turnings. I wonder now what is your best estimate about the future of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets in the near and medium range.
Yes we will survive, in about ten years after much anguish. I think it will be with deflation,and with gold deflated.
Thank you for your very keen market analysis in terms that a layman can easily absorb. Finding you has been an enormous blessing. I’m onboard with your contrarian portfolio. Following it will be fun – and you’re making it easy! Here are a few questions:
Just received a “come-on” for investing in Silver Shots – and how to turn $10K into $1M from due to China’s growing market in cell phones, metal grabs and the diminished supply???
Second question: There is some speculation that the government might choose to confiscate gold – it’s happened before – your opinion?
Another question: This government knows no limits and there is also a rumble they might choose to confiscate IRAs and 401Ks “because so many have lost so much” and they want to “help us?” Your opinion? Advance warnings if we opt to cash out and not get their “help”?
Last question: If we are to have an extended “bank holiday” where we cannot access our accounts as happened in Argentina in 2001 – we’ll we get a heads up from you? Will there be signals we need to watch for?
Glad to see your presence in Washington D.C.! Keep up the good fight and tell us what we can do to join you!! Thank you!
Cynthia Murray
Los Cabos BCS Mexico
I think America will survive, but it will be DIFFERENT, because Americans are innovative, tenacious, and hard-working. Those outside of the politicians, Federal Reserve, and the very greedy money handlers, that is. Most people, I believe, are trying to adjust to a much more frugal life-style, and realize the huge change in this country. After all, didn’t the government tell people to go out and SPEND after 9/11? So now they are learning the government is the BIGGEST problem!
My investments are in foreign funds and hard assets, such as precious metals, but I am not a “buy-and-holder”!
Paul:
I don’t feel qualified to give you advice on your investments and retention of same. I can tell where I’m going with mine. I’ve been giving 10% of everything I bring in to God’s work. I don’t mean to some large church building fund etc. I mean to the needs of people. feeding and providing for the everyday needs of people. There may be something or someone near and dear to your heart that you know needs help.
I know absoutely, you can not outgive God. He returns to the cheerful giver…
This philosophy has governed me for several years and has seen my bank balance increase many times over. Blessings to you, Bob
Is gold the way to go for a good percentage of our portfolio? If so, how does one get qualified dollars into gold investments. Now everything is in short term money market funds. Thanks
I believe that most stocks and companies are at grave risk. The exceptions [where I am investing], is in physical silver and gold, some mining shares, and some oil, gas pipeline, and natural resource shares. Partly per your beliefs, I am maintaining a large cash reserve.
Alex: It’s about time someone said what we have all been thinking, we have only ourselves to blame for our excesses and failure to save for our future…
i watched an interview on bloomberg the other day. the ceo of potash corp was being interviewed. he said that fertilizer sales were off considerably (which obviously means less agricultural planting world wide) he also said that agriculture would be the road out of recession. i see this to be two things, 1st possibly great investment opportunity and unbelievably higher food prices in the future
Martin, My opinions,
Will “America” Survive? – My answer to this is: Is America Today anything close to what the founding fathers wanted it to be…Fiscally and Politically?
I seriously Fear of Civil unrest and a Divided America Ahead. Breakaway regions?
***It is mathematically impossible to pay off our current national Debt (which will officially be $22T by mid 2010) without Instantly cutting 50% of all Federal Spending and at the same time Taxing Each and every American Houshold an ADDITIONAL $1500/mo for the next 30 years….
Thats what the Math says, and math doesnt lie…$1500/mo covers Just the Current US Federal Govt Debt, it wont cover SS or Medicare…if we did those numbers, were looking at $63T and amortorized over 30 years, would be $4500/mo additional tax revenue from each and every US houshold.
So…Will America Survive? Not in the way weve known it unfortunately….unless someone can show me some different algebra which I may have missed along the way…the government certainly is using it.
iT SEEMS TO ME THAT OUR GOVERMENT WANTS TOTAL CONTROL!!!! OF OUR LIVES. I AM GRATEFUL THAT I NEITHER HAVE GOLD OR SILVER. THE PROBLEM IS THAT OUR GOVERMENT IS IN DEED SELFRIGHTOUS AND SELF SERVING. WHAT WE NEED IS PEOPLE WITH SOME COMMON SENSE. AND I FEEL THE WHOLE THING HAS BEEN GENERATED BY THE GOVERMENTS OF THE WORLD. GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH!!!
Dear Weiss Research-Martin Weiss,
I am not in any way a stock anylyst or know anything about stocks and options,etf,shorts,etc. etc.
I am just one of the many millions of Americans wondering what the hell is going on.
Yes we are experiencing inflation and probably just the tip of the iceberg of things to come.
We down here are just trying to work to keep food on the table. Hunting,fishing,and gathering are options now.
We only work because the government will take away our land just because we didn’t pay taxes ,even though we paid for thirty years the mortage to banks who we bailed out.
How do you think we feel about this? I know you know this is true.
People on our economic level have no idea of things to come. A lot of them quote the bible. Some say revolution is to come. State are think of ceceding from the union.
We import about 90% of all the food here in Hawaii. There will be chaos in the streets.
People must have the same opinion as gun sales have increased.
Now they are talking about not spending the rest of the bailout money and the training wheels are coming off.
My biggest question is why if the economy is going to go bankrupt that the stock market is going up which is the leading indicator of better things to come?
People are putting money in or maybe only a few very rich people are munipulating the market as they did when it went down. How can we low income people know this? We do not have the resourses and as I said just go to work to put food on the table.
So may the force be with you.
Kona
General Motors had an electric car but did not take it to the final step of selling it. They had good engineers but instead listened to the marketing people who sold cars they thought the public desired but not really want. I for one believe that America and the emphasis on profit is forever gone. Our medical Drug companies have selling us junk drugs to address symptoms and not causes. Our government in the FDA is corrupt and are selling us Equal, MSG which are excitotoxins designed to kill brain cells and to make us fat because of profits. Flouride for our teeth is another hoax. Medical costs also killed GM so that we are paying the highest medical costs but are not the healthiest people. Athletes and especially basketball players receive way too much salary for their worth so that only the rich can afford to attend. Things will break down and the smart ones who invest overseas and who buy commodities will survive while the bread lines form and the dollar drops. Our dollar will lose reserve status and even AAA status so that we will be subject to the laws of economics instead of the loose money policies of the Federal Reserve. We have been printing money to pay for things we don”t need so the bills are piling up and soon it will be payoff time. Just watch the price of Gold as it zooms up.
hello Dr. Weiss……..believe bi-metallic standard should be re-implemented ……restablish gold at 20 dollars an oz.
Dr. Weiss:
Sir, I am one of your subscribers that is more interested in the way in which YOU will be answering those particular questions. The posts from other people are somewhat interesting; however, we need to know YOUR answers. Thank you.
LCL
Texas
I BELIEVE THAT OIL AND GOLD WILL BEST INVESTMENT ALONG WITH FOOD AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS FERTILIZERS AND WATER.
I’ve been following Robert Prechter and Elliott Waves for some years now, and conclude that although he’s been early several times (e.g. warning of the top and subsequent crash in the late 90’s), he’s been right, every time. In this situation, he’s saying that this bearish bounce is due to turn when the Dow reaches 9-10,000, and more importantly, when nearly everyone blanks out the bad news and considers the crash done and gone. Prediction relies on indications, so one can’t be exact, but since it looks at wave forms, fibonacci ratios and some others, EW timing is more precise than following indicators that only focus backward. It also looks for a time when the talking heads are heralding a new and bright future, when they give government credit for the upturn. That time is close, but not here yet. The wave forms are not complete, and there are still some voices telling the truth.
The strategies you provide in your “Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” provide detail I have not seen before, and give me hope. With regard to the Millionaire Portfolio, I do have some heartburn with your recent comments about stops on inverse ETF’s and on buying ANY company stocks, even those that have shown some resistance to the downturn. They, along with all others, will lose money for those who invest in them, and their waves show it.
So now I must choose; do I follow your advice and buy long in a rising market, or trust what essentially becomes my own belief, that this short term bounce will take a little longer (a month or more???), and then surprise everyone with the ferocity of its downturn? Had I listened to my head instead of my emotions, I would be waiting for the S&P to get closer to its peak, and avoided the loss we are all experiencing now with our inverse ETF. I’ll follow your lead tempered by what I know, live with my fear and greed, not buy stocks long, and hang on to my ETF’s even if they go past your stop point.
Best,
Skip Gurnee
I’m presently focused on Gold, but more important, “KNOW THYSELF”.
I am Canadian and I would like to know what you think of our banks. They say they’re still making a profit. How can I find out which banks/credit unions are safe to put my cash in. Do you have any other advise for us Canadians?
Martin
First – Thank you for your insight into the economic conditions and sharing them with us.
As for the future of this country, I’m very concerned. We are loosing our major manufacturing base slowly but surely due to high cost, mandated federal regulations, quasi-monopolistic Class One railraods and now the cap & trade for greenhouse gases. Will we have to contract out our military requirements in the future, since there will not be a manufacturing base left to produce this equipment? I believe cap & trade will cause the electric companies to pass on these excessive cost to consumers of electrical useage – both residential and commercial – causing more stress on the manufacturing sector. The next core industry to be affected by regulations, rail rates and cap & trade will be the chemical industry in which I work. We will see this industry move off shore as the cost continue to climb. If China doesn’t come on board with cap & tarde, then no other country in the world should do so. China will have more pollution than probably most of the rest of the world combined.
I also believe that a lot of Americam citizens see trouble ahead based upon the amount of guns & ammunition being bought in the US. Are they preparing for anarchy?
Do you know of a nice quite place where one can retreat, possibly in Brazil or Austrailia?
Doug
the u s a will not survive until it gets an honest money system. Gets rid of the Federal Reserve Bank . It is a corporation completly privately owned. There is nothing federal about it exceot its name. Established in 1913 it has in less than 100 years destroyed our nation. To get a complete pi-cture of the real truth about the Fed , read abook published under auspices of congressman Wright Patman in1964— A Primer On Money aIt Ind Money Facts:169 Questions & Answers On Money. A reprint was made in 1993. A book may be hard to find.
A few more billion dollars and thirty more days was not going to cure GM’s problems. Chrysler, because of possibilities of a deal with Fiat, was a little different deal. Obama just have just let GM go into bankruptcy without committing additional taxpayer money when that was going to be the ultimate outcome anyway.
The stock market is going up because short sellers are buying and selling, taking profits and getting out before the next bear market takes off…
I believe our economy is a house of cards that will tumble further.I also believe that no matter what the Fed says they are monetizing the debt.The rest of the world is not stupid and will call for some sort of replacement to price commodities.Higher interest rates are on the way!! Pete
Unless we grow up we are doomed to a third-world way of life. We are morally, intellectually, and fiscally bankrupt. We need to stop playing superpower and take care of the people who can make this country great again. We need to educate our children for the 21st century, pay our taxes, provide health care for all, maintain and expand our infrastructure, especially transportation and energy. We need to stop poisoning our air, water, and food. We need to live within our means. If we can stop our petty bickerring and do these things, we still have a chance.
It saddens me that we Americans are being deliberately lied to by the news media. For reasons that remain obscure to me, the media has become willing disseminators of the financial propaganda of the Oboma administration. Smoke and mirrors that will result in rack and ruin for our great country.
The thought of impending inflation is very scary to me. I am retired on a fixed income of about $30,000/ year.
I don’t believe Obama has any idea how to get out of this mess!!!
I wonder about the choice of investing in rare coins as opposed to gold. I have lost 50% of my 401K and IRA as I cashed out at the bottom of the Dow as I watched it drop everyday. I have receivesd e-mail from Martin Weiss and his associates for quite a long time and value their input. I observed Martin on the Glenn Beck Show a few days ago.
What’s happening today is an indictment of us Americans, business leaders, managers, engineers and all white collar people.We have chosen to blame it on the citizens at large/blue collar people in particular and not see this coming.
Nation that put man on the moon, lost it’s way. Forgot all about greater common good.
Selfishness, greed and myopia has killed this great society.
We need to realize, we are all in it together. We need to innovate, find cost effective ways to improve peoples lives and respect those who do hard work for us. Stop wasting money in military adventure abroad.
Rise of Wall Street at the expense of Industrial Power is disastrous. We are already paying heavy price. It’ll get worse, if we do not put a brake on it now.
But do we have the will power to do it!
I wonder about the choice of investing in rare coins as opposed to gold. I have lost 50% of my 401K and IRA portfolio as I cashed out at the bottom of the DOW as I watched it drop everyday. I have received e-mail from Martin Weiss and his associates for quite a long time and value their input. I observed Martin on the Glen Beck show a few days ago.
America will survive as long as there is faith in the government of the United States, plain and simple. No matter how much debt is created, how many manufactures go bankrupt and so forth, as long as we believe in the “system”, America will survive.
Ross Perot was right. Leave board room in nyc and go on assembly line. Find out what’s wrong with our cars. Instead, the other directors bought him out! Arrogance!
DFH
America will survive but in a totally different form. We now have Government controlled industries and health care is upcoming. This is communism and reminds me of what we feared in the 60’s from the USSR style of gov’t.
Very sad and I am glad my father who was in Europe for 4 years in WW2 is not here to see this. He would be sick.
What’s bad for GM is bad for America.
How did we get here ? The Nation that put man on the moon, didn’t see this coming !
Why ?
I think, because we lost basic American values. We are not our brother’s keeper any more. Few of us too busy making billions in Wall Street not thinking we are undermining the very boat we are all in. Now the boat is sinking. Our standard of living is lower than Europe. Still we have no concern about massive job loss and it’s long term social cost.
We must go back to basics.
Stop bailing out banks.
Invest in new technology, small business, health care, schools, higher education.
Bring back retired, experienced people and give them leadership role.
Let America get to work in small communities, towns.
Invest in cross country rail network.
Pete:
I agree with you, the the rest of the world is not stupid. The naivety of the young current administration would have us all believe that they actually understand what they are doing with building such tremendous debt. Large debt has been the downfall of societies through out history-example-the Roman Empire. There will be replacment; It will be replacment of the dollar as a preferred world currency…
We all have an opinion about what the problem seems to be. It also appears that we all are correct about the items that concern us the most, from our perspective, myself incuded.
The only course of action that makes sense to me is the old fashioned way of preparing for the future is to save save save…Bank deposits create funds for loans; loans create funds for development; deveopment creates jobs; jobs create wealth for saving, etc…
This is real equity investment – people.
I think the Gov should have just let Chrysler & GM go under. Now we are pumping billions into both companys, that will fail regardless of the bailout. Our Country is getting deeper in the hole with each passing day and I think that the worst is yet to come and it will be here soon.
In my humble opinion, it is timely that the world’s true learned start explaining that to charge interests is wrong and to sell something without a solid credible structure or a worthy thing is also wrong. And to lend is actually many many times a noble deed than just giving away for free, but the rich should only lend without charging interests, to help one another because each of us has the right to do business and become a little richer than ordinary, but not too rich that will only lead to greed and finally we cannot control the vicious cycle. That vicious cycle will then show its ugly head by utilizing them not for anything good for anybody. Frankly, we don’t need obama or great scholars, but any good teacher or students can speak about this. my 2-cents.
My greatest fear is the potential devaluation of the dollar. Outside of gold and metals how can we best protect ourselves?
Bill Hirschfelt
Dear Dr. Weiss & Claus,
You have great wisdom and pegged this recessionary/depressionary market correctly. We are in for a long rough economic ride. I would love to be more opportunistic, but the jobless numbers tell the story. Please do not sway from your strategies; they have worked in the past and they will continue to work.
I know many people are looking for instant wealth and for the market to give back what it has taken away from so many folks. I wish the for same, but I know the markets are not stable. The number/volume of investors are low. In fact, I believe the market volatility is due to very wealthy (Megabucks)investors nudging the markets one way or the other. How else would you get swings like we are seeing. The megabucks investor starts the swing and then the optimistic (small) investors bite, in all, getting the markets to move. I am not a gambler ready to risk my money on market sucker moves(short, swift, and fleeting). I am a small investor looking for direction. Your insight and recommendations for investments have given me opportunities I would have probably missed. Thank you for the opportunity to join the Contrarian group of investors.
Respectfully,
Linda
i have very much injoyed your e-mails. Im a small contractor and have been in business for 15 years, I made a good living not getting rich but enjoyed having the material things I desired but my problem is this some of my employs call for my support either financial or emotional, they have been making it on unemployment but that is running out. I had a back surgery three years ago and havent recovered physically so im not in a position of help emotional or financial this winter is going to be a long winter our economy is like the seasons spring everything blossoms and winter everythings dies, I dont have any answeres. I will also loose everything its easy to find green shoots when your employed I have no money to invest we had money put away for the rainy day but the rain hasent stoped. Im a dirt under your finger nail kind of guy but in this economy I cant find any work! no bail out or construction work to keep the wheels turning please let me know what direction I should be looking. Is there any hope? What do I tell my guys? Thanks for telling it like you see it.
Thanks Don
I’m a longterm investor and am interested in your opinions on longterm trends and the investments that would profit from them rather than short-term investments.
I enjoy hearing your investment advice. Thanks for the help!!!
Will American Survive?
Yes, but in a form my generation won’t recognize! Traveling overseas extensively on business for 25 years, it was obvious countries lacking modern manufacturing capability were the poorest – failure of GM and countless others is driving us down the same path. A service economy is an unsustainable myth. When I entered the workforce in 1963, CEOs and company executives worked their way up from manufacturing, engineering and marketing groups within the companies – they knew the company, products and markets inside-out. Over time outsiders with primarily financial and legal backgrounds were brought in – with short-term objectives to further “their” career and move to more powerful positions in larger companies. This resulted in short-term planning – making them appear successful – at the expense of long-term planning. This also resulted in excessive debt, inefficiency, severe reduction in internal R&D spending (lifeblood of a company) and eventual loss of market share. At the same time, graduates from our top universities focused on “quick riches” within barely-regulated Wall Street, Investment Banks and other financial institutions – “quick riches” usually meant flogging investment instruments which previous generations would have recognized as “fraudulent”.
Wall Street and associated rating organizations substituted “easy to apply” complex math formulas for reliable but laborious in-depth research – resulting in derivatives too complex to understand – a major contributor to our current financial crisis. Many of these derivatives are fraudulent in nature, but disguised by complexity. The total value of derivatives in our financial institutions is SHOCKING – but never mind, capitalism has been suspended by removing “mark to market” – the only way an asset can truly be valued – extending the life of failed institutions.
Government bailouts are “always worse” than bankruptcy – which capitalism demands. Creeping Socialism is a fear, and rightly so if Government involvement is not short-term – we’ll see. I don’t see bailouts helping, even in the midterm – miniscule compared to the size of the problem.
I see a probable end result – China is currently buying resources, technology firms and key assets with borrowed money using their huge surplus of U.S. dollars as collateral – greatly increasing their wealth over the long run. Eventually China will be buying U.S. assets in quantity, and the majority of us will work for them!
I only see two probable future paths for the U.S:
1. Eliminate legalized payoffs from K Street Lobbying Firms to our representatives – returning us to Democracy from an Oligarchy of Bankers – will never happen unless there is blood in the streets.
2. Drift into true Socialism under pressure from organized voters suffering in a long-term economic crisis.
In either event, the Dollar is toast – when hyperinflation takes hold after a deflationary period that “could” last years. China comes out the winner.
GM will exit from bankrupcy and become a very suprisingly profitable company. If we can create value in the auto industry by inovative products that everyone wants-like the I phone_ we will be better than alright.Unleashing this creativity in the auto and other US businesses is the key to survival and prosperity. Our large companys are now burocracys like our government with too many commities and consultants needing to aprove every move. We can and will do better
I applaud your outstanding efforts in helping investors cope with the current financial tsuanmi that’s hit our country, and I agree, that “as goes GM, so goes the the US economy.” We haven’t seen anything yet, with unemployment figures. The ramifications of the GM bankruptcy are yet to be felt by the general population and economy. I believe that capitalism works, and I believe that the “silent majority” feels the same way, but we have a president and Congress that seems hell-bent on destroying our country and our way of life. The silent majority must be slient no more, if we have any hope of saving our country from socialism and fascism.
It could happen? The government could devalue the dollar. Today you could have $10.00 in your pocket, and tommorow only $5.00 inbuying power. This has happened in Mexico and other countries, and may happen in America. The future is not looking the best at this time.
In time America will recover, but at my age it may be too late.
MARTIN, BLESS YOU AND THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR KEEPING US INFORMED.
A GOOD QUESTION WAS ASKED ABOVE ABOUT A “BANK HOLIDAY.” IF YOU HAVE SOME CURRENT INSIGHTS ON THIS POSSIBILITY, PLEASE SHARE THEM WITH US.
I’M WONDERING WHEN, OR IF, THE GOV’T WILL DECLARE OUR CURRENT USD TO BE OBSOLETE AND REPLACE IT WITH A NEW FIAT CURRENCY. HOW MUCH WILL WE END UP WITH? WILL WE BECOME IMPOVERISHED OVERNIGHT? ONE CENT ON THE DOLLAR? TEN CENTS? WILL IT BE MORE OR LESS DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO PAY THEIR CURRENT CREDIT CARD AND OTHER DEBTS IF A NEW CURRENCY IS IMPLEMENTED?
DEAR MR. WEISS,
I UNDERSTAND THAT THE HOUSE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DOWN. I STILL OWN ANOTHER HOUSE WHICH I BOUGHT IN 1990. I INTEND TO RENT IT TO A FAMILY BUT AFRAID OF THE CONSENQUENCES. I AM LEANING TOWARD SELLING IT, I MAY JUST BREAK EVEN WITH MY INVESTMENT. WOULD RECOMMEND TO SELL IT OR TO RENT IT?
I AM SO UNDICISIVE. PLEASE HELP.
THANK YOU,
HERMIE
Article 21 of UN Resolution 217 The Universal Declaration of Human Rights should remove democracy and elections as a human right and replace it with good government where governments are judged by how good a job they do not the political system they use. The US legislature encumbancy of evil supported by their attack voters is the global engine of crimes against humanity occuring on our home planet and in deep underground military bases. They are using the plutocracy to advance their fanatical agenda of forced democratic fascism and left unchecked will destroy both america and our republic and may start and loose world war three in the process.
Dear “weiss research Inc.” as always superb, great reading material, keep it comming.
keep us informed and well educated to counter the “dummying down of America” of recent past.
p.s. I read your articals on “newsmax.com”
Dear “weiss research Inc.” as always superb, great reading material, keep it comming.
keep us informed and well educated to counter the “dummying down of America” of recent past.
p.s. I read your articals on “newsmax.com”
Martin, I am a member of your contrarian account and am following your direction very close. However, about one year ago I purchased about 12 Master Limited Partnerships that pay dividends on average of about 9% and have continued to do so year over year.
As you know these are mainly Pipeline companies whose revenues are very stable. I have also bought your suggestions as I believe that my country is heading for a major fall. My downside should protect my upside. While I lose on one end, I make on the other. Not very productive, but certainly safer. What do you think about MLP?
Allan M. Harris
Dear All and Martin:
IMO, thigns are changing faster than we can keep up with them … A lower dollar is going to fundamentally change stock valuations to the point where the Markets can go uo to unheard of levels .. thus, using short strategies are going to be extremely dangerous … I follow the work of Jim Rogers a lot and I have learnt over the years NEVER to bet against JIm Rogers …. he was shorting housing stocks in 2005 …. P E R F E CT Timing …. and now what?
Jim Rogers: S&P Could Go to 50,000
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Martin: What do you think? This is a very plausible sceanrio …. in that case …. betting on a market downtun is suicide … which is leading me to the next point …
2. Use of LEVERAGED ETF’s and dangers of drawdowns –> Brutal math …
If your on the wrong side of the trade with a leveraged ETF … don’t expect to get your money back in linear way if the market returns to the level where you bought them:
The main problem with short ETFs is that as the underlying indexes get lower, small dollar moves become large percentages, especially in 2X funds. This math works against you as the market exhibits volatility on its way down. A dollar of loss in an index wins you a smaller gain in your short fund than a dollar of gain in the index from that lower level gives you a loss in your fund. Here’s an illustration:
Imagine if XLF (a financial index ETF) goes from 20 to 19 one day, and SKF (SKF’s 2X inverse) goes from 100 to 110.
$1 out of $20 is 5%, so SKF goes up 10%
$1 down = $10 up
The next day XLF goes from 19 to 20, so SKF goes to $98.42 . $1 out of $19 is 5.26%, so SKF goes down $11.58.
XLF is back where it started, but SKF is down 1.42%.
As many have learned in the bounce from the March 15 lows, this math can be brutal with larger percentage swings, and these moves will only get wilder as the market goes lower.
SO –> When using SKF or SRS … trade for SHORT TERM ….
Martin: Please advise accordingly … many have been burnt becuase of the LACK of knowledge ….
I do not understand why there is a general lack of scrutiny by the press of President Obama. Is the press afraid of being called racist. I do not mean criticizing for the sake of wished for failure on the part of Obama. Rather, healthy, genuine and informative scrutiny. I don’t understand why Senator Dodd is untouchable, as is Barney Frank. Why complain about bonus’s at AIG, when they were also given out at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. NO one ever mentions that Congress gave themselves a cost of living increase. So who is sharing the Obama pain. Too much lying and no counter opinions.
Financial Hurricanes,once continuity of production of goods & services is lost we are back to square one again, you can’t suite talk fundamentals.
I recommend reading the book “Meltdown” by Tom Woods. As a Senior fellow at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute I think he has a pretty good handle on what created this mess. The Federal Reserve is to blame. This private banking cartel has been illegally given the power to create money out of thin air by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Indeed Congress was given the power to coin money and to regulate against counterfeiting by the Constitution, but they were never given the power to delegate these powers, much less additional powers, to a group of private bankers. These private bankers control our entire monetary system behind closed doors. They are not required to comply with the Freedom of Information Act, and have been found to be a private institution by the U.S. Supreme Court. So, why does the United States Government barrow money from the “Federal Reserve” at interest when the United States Treasury could, and has prior to 1914, print money without paying interest to a private banking cartel? It is because some rich bankers got together in 1910 and set up a plan to control the United States currency. They financed both major Party candidates in 1912 and thus were able to get the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913. The Federal Reserve is a Privately run Central Bank very similar to the First Bank of America which Jefferson was able to kill, and the Second Bank of America that Jackson was able to kill. The difference is that the other two Private Central Banks lasted less than 20 years while the Federal Reserve has been controlling our economy for 95 years.
It should not surprise anyone that the Second Bank of American created a Depression in the 1830’s and blamed it on President Jackson who was trying to abolish the private Central Bank. In his retirement Jackson was asked what his greatest achievement was and he responded that he “beat the bank”. Indeed he served our country well as we had a free market economy for over 70 years before another private central bank took control of our monetary system in 1913.
The Federal Reserve created the current mess by artificially keeping interest rates down while they created more money out of thin air. They have created period of booms and busts by controlling the interest rates. This has allowed their member banks to unjustly Capitalize during periods of bust. We are not even allowed to know the names of all the member banks of the Federal Reserve. Many of them are foreign bankers who have little interest in the welfare of America, yet they control our entire monetary system. It is my guess that the Federal Reserve has planned the destruction of the U.S. dollar so that it can be replace with a new world currency controlled by a new, privately run, World Bank with many of the same members.
Can America survive this?? Not if we let it happen! We have already seen gross violations of our Constitutionally guaranteed rights implemented by people that have been sworn to protect these very Rights. This is not the America I grew up in, nor is it anything like what was envisioned by those who created the U.S. constitution. However, I do think that we can restore the Republic if we can get Congress to Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and require that all money be issued by the U.S Treasury. NO more “Federal Reserve notes” and things will get better for real people.
I agree that the economey continues to weaken abiet at a slightly slower rate , at present. I also agree that the the money printing and spending is only going to destroy us down the road. None-the-less, the market continues on this bear rally. It seems the volume is slowing but momentum is still indicating on the upside. I’ve been trading small positions on the up side with tight stops while buying down inverse etfs. Any advice here would be geatly apprieciated. Thanks, Rich
If the “government” thinks it can run an auto company, remember Yugo?
Yes, we will survive but our standard of living is going to drop significantly. I have been completely dismayed that our government stood by silently when American Corporations moved their headquarters off shore to avoid taxes, when those same corporations exported millions of jobs (and technology) to somewhere else, and our government looked the other way while millions crossed our borders illegally to take our jobs.
Our markets are going to be tough to make money in for a long time. Maybe like Japan for the last 15 years. My favorite trend is the World’s growing population and shortages of life’s necessities: water, oil, natural gas, copper, wheat, corn, uranium, alternative energy, etc. I think natural resource companies are going to be the place to invest for a long time.
America will survive, but in a different form. Every new generation must learn its lessons, and few members of those generations ever learn by listening. Most must learn through the hardest lesson of all – personal suffering. Nevertheless, people do eventually accomodate themselves to new situations and even search for solutions to problems created by past mistakes and abuses. Not everyone will want to travel in a new direction, so some never learn the lessons, no matter what amount of suffering must be endured. We are in the midst of great change and while it brings instability it too will bring great opportunities for those who are open, vigilent and not affraid to move in a different way.
I’m conflicted about whether we are headed for inflation or deflation. Either way spells trouble.
I feel the safest investments at this time are precious metals and foreign (oriental)stocks.
Several months back you recommended/suggested two gold dealers. Could you please repeat them for me. Thanks
Since retirement 12 years ago, and especially after 2001-2, I realized I knew nothing about investing and spent my time reading books and newsletters and attending AAII meetings hearing hundreds of speakers. I have learned not to be greedy (risk) and to preserve capital at all risks. Methods which work in an up-market, fail in a down market.
At present I am totally invested in junk-bond funds, but check them daily and will sell without fail if they fall below a 30-day moving average.
I am not optimistic. The present economy is worse than in 1929-33, and the bear market will be as bad in the next ten years as it was then, IF WE ARE LUCKY. However, that is the best-case scenario; our present actions are almost certain to fail.
In the worst-case scenario, the United States will follow the course of Rome in the year 476 A.D. (total collapse), and will carry the rest of the world down with it. Rome’s Vandals will be replaced by the Taliban and like groups, and intellectual activity will be suppressed for a thousand years, as it was then. My reason for this latter opinion is that the problem is not just financial, but much broader. Already, 20 countries cannot govern themselves or feed their people and are on the verge of collapse [Lester R. Brown: Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?, Scientific American, May 2009, pages 50-57].
WE HAVE A LOT TO THINK ABOUT AND MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT THINKING CLEARLY AND ON A BROAD ENOUGH SCALE. AGGRESSIVE ACTION SHOULD HAVE STARTED YEARS AGO.
William W. Thayer, M.D., Pasadena, CA
Bravo Martin for your great work. Reverent regards to your father.
I trust you for cleasightedness in Money and Markets.
What doom the present economy system is simply human greed. Our Administration never dealt with it. G8, G20 avoided this fundamental factor. They reject God and His commandments to trust on human laws and wisdom. We are all to make our accounts with God.
Wishing you and your team the best. Thanks cordially.
Something interesting is happening in the gold market. Although the price of gold has risen, it does not reflect in any way its true value. Do you agree that if there were no manipulation in the market by the ROTHCHILD control cartel, the price of gold would have skyrocketed to at least $1000 per ounce?…and if so WHY?
Greetings,
The financial side of Uncle Sam is frightening enough. What concerns me even more is the economy. The American consumers make up (or made up) about two thirds of the GNP. With increasing amount of unemployment and dwindling of credit I can only see a shrinking economy and possibly even social disorder. I wish I had more positive comments.
To me the job market is the best criteria. Unemployment brings everything down.
After the depression–as the jobs slowly appeared things turned around. The deeper in debt we go–the longer the recovery
I think we should bring all the US. companies back to the U.S. and also do away with Gatt. The american farmers used to feed the world and you took away their supports and look what a mess you have now. Most of the small ones had to quit which is what they wanted in Washinton. Also, what about the island off the coast of Florida all the wealthiest go to to decide what they are going to do to us next and do they receive special monies? Is this true?
The simple solution is a return to the constitution. The assumption was made that only honorable men would become part time participants in the government. However a small group of dishonorable men have captured control of far too many parts of government and industry. As more and more men became dishonest and ruled by their lusts it became increasingly inevitable that the country (a constitutional republic) would cease to be. It is just a matter of time.
wow this is really going to flip the boat . we will see and drastic change in july after the 4th . the market will take down to 6800 remember to give me cut
No doubt, USA is on the slippery slide to Socialism. There are too many people with their hands out. I am very disturbed about our nation and its abandonment of the Constitution, Bill of Rights, Ten Commandments and the Golden Rule. It makes for much confusion in just what to do with ones finances. Maybe its best to stay in precious metals and Oriental stocks/funds. I am with Joseph Devanzo on Dodd and Frank. I could name a few dozen more Congressmen that I would like to see put out to pasture but I hate to fund their rediculous retiremnent benefits.
I think the whole picture is depressing for everyone but the big money people who are constantly on the dole from the federal administration. Abraham Lincoln said that the only ones who can destroy America is America itself, and we are doing it. China is buying Hummer. What next?
from the Glenn Beck radio & show today, question:
IF THE FEDS PULLED-IN SPENDING SOON, WHICH CONGRESS MIGHT GET SCARED INTO DOING WHEN THE U.k. ELECTS A NEW GOVERNMENT NEXT WEEK, WOULD WE STILL HAVE THIS DOWN-TURN IN THE MARKET THAT WE’RE WAITING FOR?
I feel completely helpless as I watch what has been considered the greatest economy in the world wither and die as we spend our way into the abyss. It may be true that an unrestrained and greedy capitalist market system has brought on it’s own peril, but I cannot understand the lack of courage by our Government leaders in dealing with this crisis honestly. I don’t know if you are a God fearing man, but Heaven help us. I have completely lost faith in our systems ability to recover the damage that has been wrought on us all.
Tom
I regret to say that our government is out to destroy the working class. Perhaps this is the inevitable goal of all governments. It seems like only Ron Paul gets it. Most unfortunate but, yeah, we’re going down.
We are an elderly farm couple who have always kept our money in local bank and used Ed Jones Co. for other investments. On their advice, we have lost 40% of our life savings and we are too old to have any way to earn it back. Ed Jones guy told us not to buy more farm land but we did on our own and that was smart (and lucky). Then I wanted to buy a small amount of gold stock (GLD) and he laughed at me but ordered it. It is one of the few things that have gone up. Is there any way ordinary hard working people can believe anyone in this crazy world of investing? Thank you for listening.
I have never been afraid for and of my country the way I am right now! I always believed if I paid my taxes and led a lawful life I would succeed and live the American dream without interference from the government. I no longer feel this way and am very afraid and feel helpless to do anything about it. This government scares the hell out of me!
Martin , I’m not at all sure how this story turns out . The government intervention adds an unknown variable to the equation that attempts to model the 1929 sequence of events . Growing up with parents that were young adults during the 1929 period we practiced living within our means and I find those concepts have guided my life also . I fundamentally don’t believe you can use monopoly money to solve real and serious problems .
As far as how to navigate the financial storm we are in I must rely on organizations such as yours to provide direction. I participate in the Million Dollar Contrarian and several other subscriptions . I am sometimes confused by the diverse advice that issues forth . I am looking for precious metals and the far east to play an important role going forward . Tom
The good news is that as of December 2008 the BIS bank has recently reported that the over the counter (notional amounts outstanding) value of Credit Default Swaps had dropped to $41.868 trillion dollars from Junes 2008 high of $57.324 trillion. Thats a drop of $15.456 trillion. Too bad no one knows the remaining value that does not appear on the banks books : as the large banks write this off it shows up as income. Now we have to look forward to the GM and parts suppliers default events. There has to be another leg down and and as Martin Weiss points out: If interest rates go up, more defaults and if interest rates are kept artificially low by printing money because foreign investors start pulling out, we get inflation. As the rest of the toxic assets magically appear as income gains on the books of the major banks more surprises are on the horizon. We still have a way to go as we deleverage. I believe the only way we get out of this will be to produce our way out and get back to making something of value that people want to buy. In two years or less we will be forced to correct and get back to a market economy by reversing the spending and making the cuts necessary to rebuild our manufacturing base. We need a hub and spoke system of major companies of scale supporting the communities and the small businesses that feed them. Must deal with the unbalanced taxes on our products being shipped overseas to Europe and China for example. I still believe that the American worker with good leadership can out produce anyone as long as they have a fair and balanced playing field. The question is how soon can we get back to the basics and use the creative talents and energy of the American People. In the mean time, I am sticking with ETF’s taking short and long positions. Tom
In the 1920’s, and early 30’s the UAW provided a needed collective bargaining tool. In time General Motors, and the other 2 companies of the “Big 3″ found that they could pretend to “bargain”, and then give the UAW almost anything, and pass the costs on to the car buying public. When Japanese auto companies saw how overpriced American auto companies were, it was the beginning of the end. With labor costs of $70 per hour, bankruptcy became inevitable. I knew GM employees who referred to GM as “Generous Mother” because of its wages and benefits, including “SUB” pay. Both General Motors and the UAW must share the blame.
Will America survive? The short answer – YES.
I share the same view as Rick Jensen in the change of the corporate work culture. After SOX, many firms opted to get delisted in order to take the long term business survival view vs. the quarter by quarter performance views by Wall Street. Rick’s assessment of China buying up U.S. physical assets is also spot on. I would only add that China will be buying assets that will improve it’s countries industrial production capability along with improving it’s military capability. Selling the Hummer line to China is supporting their military build up effort and not providing cars to the people in Beijing. I too have traveled there on business and an Olds Alero would be a big car in that city.
I also agree with Dan Goebel’s historical accounting summary of the central bank’s attempts and eventual success at inserting itself between the people and government to manage both while getting a cut of the action from both. Cutting out the middle man is also spot on with regards to having a true restoration of the Republic that our founding fathers envisioned.
Robert Pretcher’s 1996 book “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market” was a compelling read in 1996 and even more so today. Base on the arguements presented in this book, which has thus far been very accurate, the economic and social outlook will be grim for the remaining century. The next 40 years will be particularly painful as the excesses are purged. The final low is predicted to be around 2092-2095 time frame. On the positive side, Robert is like you with regards to using these economic charts, cycles and understanding of human behavior, society, governments to navigate through the negative trend to stay focused on reality, protect the family health and wealth.
I don’t know what form of government the U.S. will become over the next 10 years. I do expect the current direction that is being forced on the population through those currently in power will back fire, there will be some form of revolt on the raiders of the U.S. Treasury and those in government that is allowing the raid to continue. It is going to be very ugly in a multitude of ways and those individuals relying on the government or business to keep their promises will become fodder. We only need to look a Katrina or the various city riots in the 60’s to see how quickly things can deteriorate and who suffers.
When the entitlement mentaliy is erased from the population, the Robin Hood philosophy is removed from government it will be the begining of the new foundation for prosperity.
It won’t happen in my life time. It might with my great grandkids.
Keep up the good work Dr. Weiss.
Best Regards,
Rick Broquet
I am a type two and right now the bounce that I have missed is driving me crazy….I beat myself up for having missed the 2003-2007 rally and now again missing this rally. The main reason for being a type two is that almost all of my money is in a 401k and we cannot use reverse ETFs to go for profits. We must catch the bounces/rallies and then move to the treasury fund or money market fund during market crashes. I hope the market crashes again so I have another chance to buy the rally.
Even a 10 year old knows that we cannot spend our way out of debt. Germany tried to get out of their mess doing just what we are doing, and they went into a period of hyperinflation. The bailouts will only make things much worse. Thank you Washington! for absolutely nothing. I’m sure we are looking at the begining of the end for the US dollar and God help us, maybe the end of our great country.
Will you please explain to me why the stock market has been surging? It does not seem logical to me, because I really feel we are in financial peril – so many people un- employed and so many companies and banks going bankrupt. They are just putting bandaids on and we are bleeding profusely. Any comments on this would be very much appreciated and I hope your answer will enlighten me, because frankly I am in the dark and v-e-r-r y confused, indeed. Thank you for your input. Looking forward to your response!
It seriously concerns me that a stock which traded at more than $90.00 per share just a short time ago today is valued at just $.75. How is it possible that GM can survive such a downturn? They can’t even pay the light bill at that rate. The government can’t continue to bail them out forever. When will it possibly end? I think I understand the immediate and peripheral impact of GM failing but can we allow this and other companies, including banks and mortgage companies, to bring this country to ruination? I am beginning to believe that it has to be a “sink or swim” situation. `1929 may have been bad but I am beginning to believe that we may not have seen anything yet!
For my own preservation, I have cancelled all my Superannuation shares. I would like to find a trustworthy stockbroker who deals in metals and Asian stocks. Does anyone where I could find one!? I live in the bush in Australia and am in my 70’s.
Mr Weiss I find your opinions very refreshing in honesty. Have you got an office anywhere here in Australia?
Petra
Our America is most likely lost
The Liberal progressives,now in charge,are not a bunch of Nuts that just don’t know what they’re doing.They know exactly what they are doing and are being very sucessful on the way to socialism.Many followers and by-standers belong to Lenin’s team of “useful Simletons”.
Do we really see what we’re dealing with?
Please advise.
Dear Martin,
The United States should be the most wealthy country on earth, but it has forfeited that to the greed of the population for wanting the government to provide everything for them. It is just as Jefferson stated that we give you a republic – if you can keep it. Pravda article last week that “American Capitalism gone with a Whimper”, other countries recognize the problems and they need to protect themselves. If you go to the bank for a loan, you do not tell the banker what the terms and conditions will be, the banker tells you, that is the same now with the foreign lenders, they have the right to tell the US what the terms and conditions will be.
This country has all the attributes that made it the most wealthy, except the people who now demand that their every want be supplied and paid for by the producers of wealth. The only producers are those who operate and are employed in private enterprise, very few government employees and no receivers of government largess, including the pensions of government employees, is a producer and are therefore contributing to the downfall of this (should be) powerful and wealthy country. There are many others who are also destroying this country while professing to be contributing to its well-being.
The future may not be kind but we will need to get back to the basics that this country was built on, and quickly.
(Annonimous) Wil
I am the eternal optimist about this great country of ours. We will survive, I trust, but not without some major damage to our ecomomy, our people, our government and our position as a world power. Unfortunately, Dr. Weiss, you have foretold the issues we now deal with, however, no one in positions of power have chosen to listen. I find it such a frustration that the fact you have done this for years now and our leaders don’t make the connection that your wisdom might just be proof that your solutions are valid.
My prayer for you and yours is that you will not be discouraged and never quit making the case for the salvation of this great nation of ours. NEVER QUIT!! We need you.
God bless you all!
Well, this WAS a shock…the question is can any of this madness be undone? It seems to me that in trying to stave off the wind, we are going to reap the whirlwind that will be the depression of all depressions.
Thanks, Martin, and your entire team, for all your insights and thought-provoking commentaries; I am a stay at home Mom who is trying to prepare our family’s finances to endure and hopefully prosper during these troubling times.
I would like more information on interest rates:
* The difference between short and long
* Why interest rates will go higher, when it seems to me that with our huge debt, the government will keep them low to make the debt appear less outrageous; also it seems that they’ll do it for the banks. Also, they want the economy to recover, so won’t low interest rates encourage/enable home buying and other borrowing?
* Does the government totally control interest rates? Or will it be beyond their control (if hyper inflation takes over) and they won’t have a choice?
* What will be the “tipping point” where deflation turns to inflation? Is it related to money supply?
* What is the relationship between inflation/interest rates? Can short term rates move independently of long term?
Also, could you comment on the benchmark spread between short term interest rates and bond yields? And if this spread is large, is this an indication of any kind?
I “soaked up” the Ultimate Depression Survival Guide and plan to re-read it this week!
Thanks for any information on the these topics; I enjoy reading everyone’s comments and wish that several of them were advising our government………
Mr. Weiss,
Thank you for asking my opinion of the current disaster at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. These are truly scary times for investors. As an amateur investor, I am having problems seeing any trends that give me confidence to know just how to invest.
Beyond the financial aspec of the Obama Presidency, I can’t understand why someone with the means to do so has not filed suit to demand to be shown where in the Constitution Mr. Obama gets the authority to do what he is doing. I see what he is doing, I know it is wrong and even unconstitutional, but I don’t see a way to stop him.
The most frustrating part is that he still has better than a 60% approval rating according to some polls I have read. How can the majority of Americans watch what is going on and approve? I am just about ready to pack my bags and go to Grand Cayman to escape while there is still time.
The middle class was born with the automobile assembly line under Henry Ford,the unions,the GI bill for returning WW11 vets,the suburbs,cheap gas,and upward mobility
for the average American,that wanted to work for it.Social security,and pensions,saving for the future,medical benefits,the American dream.Now its take back time,for the enemy
of the working class.the elite rich bankers,CEO”S,bought off governments officials. It goes back to the war for Independence in 1776,the people we beat to gain our freedom
have been behind the scenes working all along to take it back,a little at a time,right under
our dumbed down noses.The Federal Reserve system,the farming out our manufacturing system,not honoring our Constitution,on and on,one piece at a time.The founding fathers knew this and gave us the tools,to keep our freedom.Its time
to stand up and use them,or loose it all.Our Fiat money system will be destroyed,no longer the world”s reserve currency,the Fed printing money around the clock.Massive layoffs,hyperinflation,new taxes by our local,state,and federal governments.Gold and
silver will be the last resort place to have your money,as it has been threw out history.
A new age is now here,the people wanting one world government have been working
very hard,while America slept.We have been warned,all along,if you only looked.The hour is now at hand,fight back to regain our freedom,or perish under a cruel new one
world government.The enemy of freedom is now at the gates,will we wake up and fight,or wake up to find a nightmare of a new age upon us.It is up to us,right now,the future of America,pray to God,that this once great country rises up to Fight.As GM goes,so does America,the world is watching.Maybe it should be as America goes,so
does the rest of the world.At Pearl Harbor the planner of the attack on America,the enemy leader
was asked,what the results,will be,he said “I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping
giant,and fill him with a terrible resolve”.
Not only will America SURVIVE; I believe it will THRIVE!! I think the US consumer has learned the lesson to begin to control their debt. If you look at what they have been doing over the last several months, you will see that they have paid DOWN some of their debt. They are clearly heading in the right direction. Letting GM fail is a POSITIVE step, it means that the US government finally realizes that they can NOT bail out everyone. The public understands this and wants a free market system. It looks like the housing market is hitting its bottom – many have forecast the bottom to be by the end of this JUNE. I think all of these indicators mean the markets will hit bottom and bounce back. April was the strongest April in 50 years for the stock market. May is also up. I am getting back in; my money has been OUT of the market since January 2008. I think it is time for all the doom and gloom to dissipate. I expect that it will be November before the bulk of US sentiment switches – so many people still believe in the Out in May and Stay Away philosophy – HOWEVER, the early money will make the most money in the rise of the marketplace. I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines that is starting to trickle back in. Many of the Obama programs will begin to see their impact this summer. Don’t be left out.
Martin…..
I have watched this sham from the last of the 1930’s
The gold smiths and silver smiths previously had a habit of writing recipts for metals that was not in their vaults because the people got in the habit of using reciepts for money.
In 1933 when the bankers (who did the same) went to F.D.R. and warned him that people were asking to turn in their gold and silver certificates for the real metal,.
metals that did not exist because they had printed money with out the gold in the vaults.
As F.D.R. was coming into office he told them to come up with a solution……They revised the old (Wars Powers Act) which took the peoples citizenship rights away from them, made them enemies of the state. That law which congress passed with out reading it is still in force today.
They passed F.D.R.’s farm morgage act which took our true ownership of land away and many other things. As Obama says we are users of land not owners……
The United States of America was a Goverment which was under the control of the States, a land based Goverment……
A new Goverment was formed, made to look like the United States of America but is not, it is a maritime Goverment with a gold fringe around the edge of the flag (the one Obama stands in front of) . This United States Goverment takes our real rights away in Federal court.
We the people stand here while our untold wealth is destroyed by accident, NO by a well oiled political machine that has been running for many years, fueled by the people who “WANT SOMETHING FOR NOTHING”.
Citizens there is no something for nothing, hard work brings something.
What is going to happen?? Oh My Just Wait And See First Hand.
Shalom; “For G-d did not give us a Spirit of fear,but of HIS Peace.HIS love and a Sound Mind.The more I give where the widow and fatherless have there need,the so-called worry of “what will i eat,drink,etc. my funds and work is not even on my mind.Shalom is not an “absense of conflict”.It is not a wordly peace.
Your wisdom of economics is very good.! You are a good teacher.
The next wave of prosperity in this world will come with a heavy price.
This is my humble opinion,but I believe that it is a truth.The WORD
of G-d(DAVAR ADONAI) teaches this .But those who hide in HIM,,,there is no worry.
My prayer for you is G-d’s Wisdom.
warm regards, Yhudit
Elliott thinks this will be a DEFLATIONARY depression. He says that the government can print all it wants but can not force the money into circulation. Also printed money is a very small portion of our economy which is mostly debt. What do you think about inflation vs. deflation?
I am 62, my husband is 68. We are fortunate to be healthy and living in a rural area. Our children are doing alright to well, but, like us, they are very nervous with what they see. They and we know from personal experience (the 1979-81 recession) how fast you can go from thinking you are “safe” to homeless and really Washington doesn’t give a d_ _ _ – just so long they get reelected and can carve out their piece before the cake is crumbs. Then they send the crumbs to the bottom members of society and expect adulation for the effort! We have wanted for years to invest and follow Martin’s advice (absolutely steller) but our economic level was just starting to climb when 1997 hit. We have not recovered and we were not “in the Market”.
Do I think America will recover? Only after every single heartstring is cracked (where hearts remain) and the memory of those that survive will be seared with the images of the carnage. Unlike other nations America has been given much – and where much is given much is expected.
Many continue to follow after Mamon wildly expecting huge profits or turn-arounds and this glut of greed and wanton desire for ever more will turn on all of us, great and small. The day of humbling is upon us and only when this nation is once again on its knees will prosperity return. Just as Caesar made the great Germanic chieftain, Orgetorex, pass beneath the bar in humiliation and submission so will America pass beneath its “bar of obiedence”. Many hidden as well as open acts of ingratitude, pride, gluttony, lust, lying, theft, debauchery, etc. have to rise to the surface to be skimmed before this nation will again taste the fruits of prosperity and goodness. And only then.
Frankly this whole scenario reminds me of the last years of the Roman Empire. Our fat cat politricians are still stuffing their personal accounts while millions will go hungry tonight.Most everyone has the notion that this country wil not survive in its’ present condition. Like how would you like a deficit of 3.8 billion a day without any means of repaying it,except for printing more money. The money we owe overseas will be repaid on pennies on todays dollar. Our savings will be worth the same,pennies.
Yet throughout all this I have yet to hear {except for Ron Paul} a single politician come forward with a plan to save the good old US of A. Banks, insurance companies and Wall st. all get bailed out from their own stupidity and we the people get to foot the bill.The Military Industrial Complex keeps churning along like there is no tommorrow and more and bigger and better bombs keep rolling down the assemly line. These are not cars or farm machinery but one time, one use bombs that cost millions apon millions of dollars and then billions. And so it goes and you ask if we will survive? It is not if but when the end comes. They are just trying to stave it off slowly,so that we slide into our demise.Hey they don’t want the people to panic as they should.The thing is if they didn’t panic over the Cheney,Bush administration why should they now?
Hello,
I wish I knew which investments will spin off substantial profits, I’d buy a boatload! I’m 62, lost $100,000 in my 401K, and lots of money in my other stock investments. I can only see a profit in precious metals, maybe. If the stock market is tanking in general, how can anything do “well”? I feel we are teetering on the edge of a depression, the more the government spends, borrows, etc, the more we teeter. The rest of the world’s well being seems to hinge on the U.S., so it doesn’t look too good for anyone, anywhere.
There is very little borrowing for bank loans, mortgages, etc, going on at the lower interest rates, it will probably completely dry up it interest rates rise, you cannot just keep rinting money and think your problems are solved, they may be for the moment, but we all have to pay the piper eventually. This combination of “resolution” will probably push us over the edge into a full blown depression (regardless of what the government calls it).
I’m usually a positive person who can always find a glimmer of hope in amy situation, but I’m still digging through this horrible mess, tring to find even a microscopic dhred of hope!
P.S. I have been in mortgage banking for 26 years & my husband is a realtor (part time), so we are very aware of the mortgage industry.
In your estimation, how can the present problem of failing companies, government guarantees and underwater financial institutions be addressed, other than mass infusion of capital by the government?
Also, what should the tax payers get in return for the infusions that make sense?
With the present spending, how soon do you see our monetary system collapsing under the weight of printing more and more money?
Greetings, All,
Alcoa (AA NYSE) is trading near $11, was $44 last year. Too much debt and it dropped under $6 earlier this year. Do you expect this stock to break $30 anytime soon??
Thanks,
:) Marv
I think gold and oil are going to be the best investments for awhile.
First, I believe that if we, the American people, do not require Congress (our elected officials) to desolve the Federal Reserve Banking System very soon, and return to following the US Constitution requirements for issuing money, we will all become slaves to the banking cartel.
Second, the people of the US should never repay the money and interest owed to the stock holders of the Federal Reserve for decades of borrowing fiat currency.
Oil will become one of the hottest investsments in the not to distant future. Because we will be told that the world is running out of oil. Gold and silver should be a good investment to preserve the value of wealth due to the inflation of the money supply.
I appreciate your objectivity and especially your adviseability. Ihave been in the investment business for nearly 39 years…. and this is the most perplexing environment that I have encountered.I personally believe that we have experieced a massive shift in the center of the investment world from one that once centered on American Economics to a Global Arena. I personally that America is technically bankrupt and those nations holding so very much of our debt are doing so out of self interest and will gradually unload our debt instrument back on us(to the extent we are able to repurchase them or else print more money to pay them back with..with a much depreciated currency). In either scenario it’s a lose…lose situation for all concerned. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK…a daily reader.
YES ! BUT, NOT AS WE HAVE KNOWN, ESPECIALLY THE FREEDOMS AND THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE INDIVIDUAL. I FEAR FOR MY CHILDREN. I SEE TOTAL DICTATORSHIP AND TRUE ”SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST” RESULTIN IN WARRING AMONST OURSELVES, NO LONGER BEING ABLE TO TRUST ANYONE OR ANYTHING A COMPLETE COLLAPSE.
BUT HOW DO I, A 75 YEAR OLD ON SOCIAL SECURITY?? AND WHERE DO I PUT MY MEAGER 50,000 SAVINGS NOW. (IN TREASURY NOTES, A CD, AND CKING)
MONEY WILL RUN OUT SOON AS I EXPECT TO HELP WITH LESS THAN ME, TWO SONS RECENTLY LOST HIGH LEVEL G M POSITIONS
AGAIN, ADDRESS THE ”LITTLE OLD LADY” GROUP, STILL ALIVE AND WELL AND KICKING? ?? ??? AWAITING A REPLY,I APPRECIATE YOU ‘CARING’ PAT SELLEKE
The US has become a failed state, surely to enter 3rd world status.
It has come to my attention that several private parties have accepted contract assignments to neuter the COMEX and London Metals Exchange, to render ruin to its gold market. That bears repeating from the rooftops. MUTLIPLE HIRED HITMEN HAVE ASSIGNMENTS TO KILL THE COMEX GOLD MARKET. That is the lynchpin to control the USDollar, the USTreasurys, and the numerous mechanisms used by the New York and London financial centers of power. Their behavior is beyond the reach of those who seek justice and remedy, but they are not beyond the reach of hitmen. The USDollar has been in violation of the US Constitution since 1971, perpetuated by a series of wayward administrations. The global creditors for the USTreasury Bonds are so angry at the past suffered losses, the prospect of deep future losses, and the perceived impropriety laced throughout the US financial system, that they have hired third parties to kill off the US$-gold platforms, to harm the vehicles used by the US-UK bond peddlers who control the gold cartel itself. They have systemically been dismantling the COMEX pillars and levers over the last several months, quietly and without fanfare, surely without publicity. The upcoming events might be as swift as brutal.
The events around Georgia lit a fuse that set off a chain of events, with reaction starting in Moscow. In time, events led to orders given by high level powers, for the US fraud kings on Wall Street to swallow the medicine no later than first thing Monday morning on September 15th. When inquired as to the nature of the urgency leading into that understood stated deadline date, no answer was given. The guess of the Bank For Intl Settlements was submitted by me, and it was confirmed. Other sources, the USTreasury Bond creditors, also applied the pressure, it was told. The US financial sector has been under siege since last autumn.
It is without a doubt, the fulfillment of economic LAWS. We(the US) have had a monopoly/oligopoly of production for almost a century. Of course, we prospered immensely.
GREED, STUPIDITY, COCKINESS, and STUBORN UNWILLINGNESS to change or even to recognize the capitalistic production evolving of the rest of the world.
Did the politicians, CEO’s, judges(Supreme Court), and the general populis think we lived in a bubble? Were immune? DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
The only way to have made this change manageable was to let the economic laws of supply and demand work without corrupting the commercial/business environment.
The rest of the world WILL produce what they need AND what we need – cheaper and
better.
We will NOT learn and accept the FACT that our standard of living for the HUGE majority is gone!
This will make our depression deeper and longer lasting.
IN MY HUMBLE OPINION “OBAMINATION” IS ON THE WAY TO BANKRUPTING THIS COUNTRY. THE “BAILOUT DEBT” HE HAS GENERATED WILL TAKE US 50 YEARS OR MORE TO CLIMB OUT OF. THIS COUNTRY WILL BE SO DAMAGED THAT THE ECONOMY MAY NEVER AGAIN BE AS STRONG AS IT WAS.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS COUNTRY HAS NOT LEARNED ANYTHING FROM THE “1929 CRASH”. EVERY ECONOMIST I HAVE HEARD HAS SAID YOU CANNOT SPEND YOUR WAY OUT OF RECESSION/DEPRESSION, IT HAS NEVER WORKED BEFORE AND IT WILL NOT WORK NOW. ANOTHER BANKRUPTCY PLAN OF OBAMINATION IS “SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AND HIS “OTHER WELFARE” PLAN.
Martin,
They call it capitalism. However, this is nothing but debtism. There is no capital, only the debt everywhere. The edifice built on debt has crumbled causing a collapse of everything.
The US consumer has no job (all manufacturing has been shipped overseas; many white collar well paying jobs have moved to India). To counteract the effect they were fed the opium of debt against their houses that kept rising. This opium kept them in good mood as they took more and more loans that kept their spending habits intact. After this asset bubble has collapsed, they can not get any more loans to sustain their lifestyle. The Fed is trying to release more opium but there is reluctance from both the distributor as well as the receiver.
The rich and super-rich were having a bonanza as they were buying super cheap by paying slave labour rates in Asia ( I am an immigrant engineer from India who came to Canada about twelve years back, and I know what the labour gets there) and saling at fabulous prices comparatively to consumers in America. Earlier the rich and superich of the western world would invade countries, subjugate/kill millions in developing world in search of Markets for their products ( I am just quoting history). However, since eighties they are no longer required to do this. They had to just ship all manufacturing
and outsource jobs to asian continent to make the enormous profits; and this time without killing or subjugating anybody. However, they were subjugating their own people and driving them to poverty through enormous debt load. Now the world has taken a full circle. There is and will be no consumer; so whom they will be saling their gadgets?
What will happen next? In my opinion, the middle class will rise and there will revoluiton through ballots. All these superrich people will be heavily taxed. This has already started happening. Manufacturing wil lbe back into North America due to popular demand. The rich ans superrich will be on the run.
So will America survive? The answer is, yes. The only way it can happen is by bringing manufacturing back to North America and stopping outsourcing. What is the other way way out? How people will get jobs and where? Which industry? You can create jobs by just printing money and giving to the corrupt banking industry that is owned by most corrupt dishonest super rich.
You may say this is PRTOECTIONISM and that this will be further damaging to the industry here citing comparisons with great depression era. However you forget that in those times US was net exporter and the factory house for the rest of the world. This time US is the net importer and majority of goods are manufactured in Asia. It is any body’s guess who will benefit from PROTECTIONISM, I call it self defense.
These are only some of my own thoughts.
Cheers.
Unbeleiveable !!!
According to the book, Lords Of Finance, the Bankers Who Broke The World by Liaquat Ahamed, 2009, The Penguin Press, GM indeed served as a metaphor for the US economy. By 1925 it was producing about 25% of all cars sold in the US – 800,000 a year. Between 1925 and 1927 it’s profits increased 21/2 times to 250 million/yr; the most profitable co. in the US. It’s stock price quadrupled from $25 to $100.
I beleive the US will recover; we got through the Great Depression (when I was born) and we can do it again. Short term, I think precious metals offer some interesting opp.
America is through unless the citizens unite and find a way to elect statesmen into office in one election. History has proven that one or a few men can not change Washingotn. This can only be done by defeating the Political Pary system that our Founding Fathers warned us about. In the past it has been done by Revolution. Today with the modern computer it could be done without blood shed and at a very low cost. If not done soon we will be in a one world government and if you think Washington is unchangeable; can you imagine how difficult it will be when the Capital is located half way around the world and the leaders selected by all the countries? As a matter of fact I feel our voting rights will be removed by the One World Government.
Did anyone out there notice that in the news today that Russia and China have banned buying pork from the United States? They said that they were not buying US pork because of the Swine Flu. This is the beginning of protectionism as the problem did not originate in the United States, but in Mexico. If you get a chance to read the article, they have broken the World Trade Organization rules on their banning our pork products. Russia and China are our two top purchasers of USA pork. Pork would seem to me like a good stock investment, until I read todays news. Wonder what other US product bannings we will see down the road.
Martin D. Weiss, Ph,D. Sir.
Am I so far out in my thinking to offer the following.
You cannot pay outrages prices and benefits to people who put together automobiles that come with a price tag so out of touch for people to buy who make 5,6,8, or 10 dollars an hour. If they do buy them they are worn out before they get them paid for because it takes 5 or 6 years to clear the debt for the car. (You know I didn’t have to go to college to realize the above.)
Will America Survive?????
The Moral Fibers upon which this Nation was built are being torn to shreds. Our Constitution has been shamefully Disobeyed and walked on with disrespect. There is unvelievable corruption in lives of Leadership that makes Honest Citizens shake their heads in Disbelief to think this Nation could ever fall to this Degree and the guilty not be brought to Justice.
THE GREAT SIN OF OUR NATION IS ITS MORALS. Regardless of what mankind believes or thinks there is only ONE THAT WILL HAVE THE LAST WORD AND THAT IS THE GOD WHO CREATED MANKIND AND THE DIRECTION FOR WHICH GOD REQUIRES MANKIND TO LIVE IS FOUND IN GODS WORD THE BIBLE. ITS GOD WAY FOR ETERNAL LIFE, ITS MANS WAY FOR ETERNAL DESTRUCTION and we are free moral agents and will be JUDGED accordingly to our choice.
As for me and my house we will Serve the Lord and wait with patience for the coming of King Jesus to Put all things in order according to His will. EVEN SO COME QUICKLY LORD JESUS. Sincerely, James W. Holtz
“Luxury has fallen upon us, more terrible than the sword, and the conquered East has revenged herself upon us with the gift of her vices.” – Juvenal, 1st Century Roman poet and satirist.
Ringing any bells?
I believe the “takeover” of our medical system will be the crowning blow to our Republic. Over fifty years ago, I gave a speech, in my freshman year at Ohio State University, as one of my required presentations. I could have selected any topic to research. Fear is an avenue, used by dictators, to subdue their citizens into submission. Fear of one’s access to medical treatment has been one of the tools used very successfully in past takeovers of the citizenry. We have no funds for the socialized program, but that does not seem to alarm a large sector of voters who expect cradle to grave sharing of others hard earned wealth!!
You try to be hopeful and optimistic but you have to be realistic with what is happening. Our empire status has pretty much come to an end. With just a few formalities left, like a collapsing dollar event or a government bond default, we are cooked geese. We can’t hold on to our supreme world superpower status forever nor were we meant to. The world has changed taking our old ways with it. Better play it safe and prepare for an unpleasant tomorrow. It could get ugly. America might get through this but I have a feeling that it won’t ever be the same.
What killed GM and a lot of other companies is the uncontrolled cost of medical insurance that has every company and every auto dealer struggling to make those astronomical payments. Having worked in manufacturing for 40 years, I have seen how medical cost has made hiring of people so difficult that companies run their plants with two – 12 hour shifts, rather than 3 – 8 hour shifts. And then they send the product to be made to China, Mexico, India and all over the world just to evade the expense of hiring an American worker. This country needs to reign in the medical industry and I feel it is time for a National Health Insurance program similar to those in France, England, Canada, Taiwan, and Japan.
alot of car,banks,etc. companies will only shrink or go bankrupt.we sure need to fast track cafta and the world trade before its to late and if we dont we sure heading for disaster.so help us GOD.
I am retired now . but I fear my grand kids will be the ones that will pay forthis mess
Gold, and silver, oil, and the ETF (TBT) are all buys in my opinion.
I believe this mess will end in the “Gog/Magog” conflict of Bible prophesy. The only good thing about that is that we win and plunder those who thought to plunder us. We face a rough future. In the meantime I must choose what will best serve me and mine before then. Precious metals and Ford motor company seem best now. NG is consistently giving days of 7 to 10 % increases which is proabably good for at least 300%. NG has tremendous amounts of Gold in the ground, but must build its mining abilities. During the crash it looked like it would loose everything in the credit crunch, but has pulled out of it and now has its financing in place. The crash took it down about 95% but it has recovered about a third of its loses as it put in place its needed financing. Now it is beginning to soar back to where it belongs. Other precious metal companies are doing the same, but most did not loose and come as close to failure as Nova Gold did. Nova Gold still has the gold in the ground and should recover nicely from here. It has had a breath taking roller coaster ride.
I think something needs to be done immediately to stop this train wreck if it isn’t already too late.
As a senior, retired and with resources diminishing by the day I am in a quandry as to how I (any of us at the low end of income level) will survive the coming financial catastrophe.
It seemed obvious from the beginning these massive bailouts woudn’t work. I believe they were never intended to. Just part of a conspiracy of sorts to dismantle capitalism.
There must be some vehicle the people have to salvage what is left of our nation from these spoilers who have usurped power away from the people.
Our constitution is being violated left and right. The rule of law trampled. It must be stopped!
I am finding it difficult to make investment decisions based on the current administration’s unprecidented appetite for debt, it’s wilfull disregard of the U.S. Constitution and it’s rapid descent into fascism.
Unless a miracle happens, I believe the dollar will be significantly devalued and replaced with new currency, although whether that is a North American Union currency or we are forced to accept the renminbi, I’m not sure. As protection against this kind of event, I would buy precious metals.
Other than that, I’m watching to see what markets China invests in. I think they are working overtime to mitigate whatever toxic U.S. or other foreign assets they hold and they know full well that the stability of their country depends on the health of their economy.
I do not understanding why we have not been at least scaling into a short position on long term Treasury Bonds, such as through 2x Inverse TBT.
On the other hand, I hope we are not becoming a club of “M. Fools” who build up a data base of our own follow-the-crowd recommendations, and rank stocks accordingly.
On still another hand, I hope Claus is aware of the danger of hubris, in becoming overly dependent and confident on past results of success as a forward investing strategy.
With God all things are possible. If we will turn from our wicked ways and pray. He will hear from Heaven and heal our land. If we pray for our President He will put our nation on a righteous course.
Put not your treasure on this Earth where moths consume and thieves break in and steal, but store up treasure in Heaven. Take care of the poor and the widow, In the last days people who stack up wealth are going to wail and their hearts fail them for fear. Cling to God in Christ Jesus.Forgive and walk in love.
I’d like to think that if Obama people didn’t spend 100s of billions on
these companies like GM, Chrysler, Big Banks, who were likely to go bankrupt anyway,
taxpayers would have saved 100s of billions right now.
It’s mistakes like these by these people that are costing taxpayers trillions and
trillions of dollars.
I recall Mass. Governor Romney mistakenly overspending on BigDig construction
project for $14 billion, originally for $3 billion at the beginning.
So Mass. taxpayers are being forced to pay higher highway tolls and subway tolls
to pay for extra $11 billion mistakes made by Romney and his cronies in Mass.
Why do we have to pay big time for mistakes made by these elected idiots?
How long can we keep this up?
First, I think that the Unions tough negotiation with GM Management has a lot to do with GM not being competitive and going into be debt. I read that it cost GM about $1500 more to manufacture a car.
Management was reluctant to adopt new gas efficiency techology, Like HAFC. The fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines is about 17%. I was told this by a director of Ford. If it could be doubled or tripled, think that the Arabs would be eating sand. I have read that HAFC has been around for about 10 years. The problem is that computers in cars have to be modified for the new technology and auto manufactures were reluctant to do that. Are they in cohoots with the Arabs? or Oil companies.
The HAFC technology involves using a small amount of water to electrolyze water to hydrogen and oxygen. When this mixture is combusted with gasoline, the efficiency of gasoline conversion increases dramatically.
Check this out on the Internet under HAFC.
Years ago a person could afford to buy a house worth twice their annual income, and a car worth 1/4 their annual income. Those numbers did not change, but the surge in available credit, changed the rules. You could have everything you wanted right now, just ask any high powered salesman with a credit backing. Prices escalated dramatically to reflect this new purchasing power. Now, those corporations and individuals who took advantage are being called to pay the piper. Unfortunately our elected representatives never had the will or the courage to prevent this debacle, and as in their past failures to serve this country, they personally will float to the top of the septic tank.
The USA will survive. Overall we will be poorer and reduce our world-wide role in military and financial affars.
Unless the Congress reduces the debt through lower spending and makes bankers and Congressmen and Senators subject to criminal penalties for not controlling banking actions, it will be repeated. No matter how big a holding company gets, the banking company must remain profitable and free from the holding company bankrupting it. Contributions from banking lobbist, unions, any other interested parties must cease. Expect a lesser replay within the next 10 years!
Could be a hyper inflation like Germany saw in the 30’s. Printing too much fiat money. Coming off the gold standard in 1971 was a big mistake for America. We will pay the price for this. We will have some dark days ahead. We have danced to the fiddler much too long with our out of control use of credit. Very soon it will be time to pay the band.
I believe America, will survive. We have tremendous resilience in this country I have not seen elsewhere in the world. There is a freshness of Spirit here not noticed in Europe, where two world wars and numerous other wars have taken place for thousands of years, or in India, still suffering from the adolescence following colonialism.
However, it seems that we have let greed go too far and now we have a price to pay. It would be better to pay it on our knees, humbly asking GOD for forgiveness, and then making amends with those who have been wronged. Then, I believe we will rise again, and have the credibility of integrity in the world of commerce and before our GOD.
Of course we will survive. But, it suspect as a different country.
- We seem to be moving to a post-industrial european style ( socialistic) of life. What will we make that cannot be made elsewhere in the world for cheaper?
- Many young people are narcassitic due to decades of ” self esteem” training at home and in school. I suspect they will respond to a crisis by having the government solve it for them, rather than the prior great generation’s responses to crisis.
- Instead of investing our wealth, we bought mcmansions, oil and consumer items from abroad.
Martin, my father was of your father’s generation. He anticipated this crisis a decade ago and also predicted this attempt to inflate the economy and devalue the dollar. I believe, as he did, we will avoid 20-30% unemployment, but we will all have a lower standard of living for a long peroid to pay for our excesses.
I thank you for your wisdom and for help saving my family’s economic future.
I feel doomed by this socialist President. He has done more harm to this country in the past 100 or so days than any of the past Presidents have ever done.Our rights and our finances are slowly being stripped away and I really dont feel that the USA can come back that fast. The liberals in control are determined to spread the wealth and punish those of us who worked hard and tried to save for those rainy days. Crooked CEOS and tax cheats get rewarded and bailed out while us workers get the shaft. Our leadership is a total disgrace bent on total domination of our lives.
I think Gm’s collapse is symtomatic of a much larger problem. That is the destruction of the ‘working middle class’ by insanely shortsighted international trade deals. The first step in this collapse was the outsourcing of higher paying working class jobs to lower wage countries. The second step was the layoffs of the people here who used to work these jobs. The third step was the creation of a ‘debt economy’ to keep these big ticket items such as autos and homes selling despite the fact that just about everywhere in this country incomes were falling. The fourth step was running out of buyers that had even marginal credit (such as me). The fifth step was extending credit to those who were entirely unfit. This was necessary to keep to keep at least houses going up in value. I suspect it has long been federal policy to do ANYTHING to hold those housing values up. Once those fall, there is absolutely no bases for the American economy at all. Poor people, such as myself, don’t buy houses. We rent. Finally, when there weren’t even UNWORTHY people to extend credit to, the first cable on the bridge snapped. Housing values started falling. Gm is but one more cable letting go. I expect many more will follow. We will end up where we were at the onset of WWII. And that is if We are lucky. If we are not, the whole damned bridge will fall. That will mean not only depression (considered a mild term at the time) but revolution. I say this not because people are reported to be snapping up ammunition at record rates, but because there are fewer and fewer institutions that anyone trusts any more. Along with greed comes its twin brother, corruption. I also feel the anger welling up inside myself at the fact that none of these bad actors is ever held accountable. And that my once proud ‘democracy’ is now beholden to a fascist (formerly communist) state. Also, as hard as I have tried, my personal fortunes have been falling ever since Clinton let that damned NAFTA through. I am now trying to support myself On income (adjusted for inflation) that I first earned when I entered the workforce, thirty some years ago. If you want someone to pull this economy out of the ditch through middle class style spending, don’t look to me.
Dear sir:
I am not an American but I am worry about what happening today in America.
There are people who have mysteriously poked the American society into pieces for a long time.
America did not lose the Vietnam war on the battle field but rather in the American living room. The individual freedom has been violated beyond the imagination of wise people.
The same thing happening again this time with the war in Irak and Afghanistan. The American did not listen to their leader. They have to win the war, no hesitation.
On the contrary, Democrats think they better than the Republicana: it demonstrates a wrong idea. Especially at this moment. democrats think they will dominate the nation for generations to come. Brothers kill one another at home while their mutual enemies look on! Mr. Clinton, at an interview by Canadian Broadcast Corporation, said that he did not believe that Mr. Bush borrows money from China. Now, in your text, the US treasurer went to China for the same reason!
Canada thinks they are better than America. The Canadians (not every Canadians) do not know they isolate themselves. They will pay a price if they do not cooperate with the US.
The individualism often proves a weakness of people who do not have competence, talent and pride.
America has a plenty of man with competence, talent and honor as those who wrote the Declaration of Independence, I just wonder where are they now? What has kept them away from the problem of their country? Harvard is dominated by people different from the whites; Mayo Clinic is inactive and let the majority of ordinary American people believe whether they eat wrong food or they must be on diet. Where is the beautifully balanced American Nutrition system? Why the American citizens have to make themselves starved or suffered from nonsense rumors? They are preparing to b