CLICK HERE to join the discussion!
If there was ever a time to have a growth portfolio that gives you BOTH a powerful offense AND an impenetrable defense … THIS IS IT!
Mere days after Obama released his 2011 budget estimates calling for the largest deficits of all time …
Even as Washington is busy gearing up for its next record-shattering spending, borrowing and printing binge …
The newest unemployment reports show an increase in job losses … the Dow has plunged by over 200 points … and the Nasdaq is down nearly 50 points.
And adding to the frenzy, Moody’s Investors Services has warned that the greatest debt juggernaut in history is about to have some very serious, unintended consequences:
According to Moody’s, if Washington doesn’t slash these deficits — and fast — America’s triple-A credit rating is in grave jeopardy!
This does not threaten short-term Treasuries maturing soon. But it does raise serious doubts about long-term bonds.
Moreover, if the credit rating of the U.S. government bonds are suspect, imagine the disaster possible in junk bonds!
Last year, Wall Street pitchmen pawned off an all-time record of $147.7 billion-worth of junk bonds to investors … and already this year, they’ve dumped $11.7 billion in more junk on investors in a single week.
That’s another all-time record high — mostly in companies that were so close to death a few months ago, they couldn’t even fog a mirror!
The handwriting is clearly on the wall:
This bond market bubble is destined to burst just like the tech and housing bubbles before it.
And when THIS bubble bursts, it will automatically drive long-term interest rates sky-high — pure poison for an economy in as delicate a condition as ours is now.
THIS, dear Reader, is THE most important fundamental economic shift looming in the United States today.
So the big question is no longer “if” the bond market bubble will burst … or “if” the resulting interest rate spike will kill the U.S. recovery … or “if” U.S. stocks are vulnerable …
Rather the big question that remains — the one that economists can never seem to answer — is “WHEN will this fundamental shift hit the fan?”
Which brings us to today’s question-of-the-day:
How do you adjust to major fundamental events that are clearly carved in stone, when you don’t know WHEN they’ll begin to impact the markets?
Just click here and use the “comments” area to share your thoughts with us.
I’ll see you there!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 374 comments… read them below or add one }
I have 70% of my money in cash. No short term T-bills however. Money market, checking account and savings account. I am ready to buy when the market is ready.
Did you hear that….? That’s the sound of GOLD!!
We know it’s getting ready to hit the fan in a massive way. That goes without saying, but what I want to know is this: Has the Fed been artificially inflating market prices by buying securities in overnight trading? It seems to me that everything the government touches turns to…well, you get the picture.
How can we as investors make any judgments about what to do or how to proceed when our government plays games with us and hides the real numbers from the public?
It makes me want to pull the dirt over my face and hide from reality until 2012.
You’re the expert here; what say YOU?
This market is getting scary. It is starting to play out like a book called the ultimate depression survival guide. It is time to hedge investments that can not be sold like houses. It is also time to be thrifty with spending because of job layoffs. The stock market is not as important as putting food on the table.
How do we know that the bond bubble will burst and how do we know that this will cause a rise in interest rates, please assist me in understanding the connection. I am informed that the government would be fools to allow the rates to climb anytime soon inspite rising inflation pressures for fear of pushing the economy into collapse.
where can you keep your money safe? Everything is under attack.
What does a person invest in now and when do you recommend we buy EFT’s or what investment vehicle other than Treasury bills??? I don’t have time to watch the stocks or EFT’s every day??
This is precisely what has hurt me in the last 3 years. To realise what is going to happen doesn’t help if the Government steps in and changes the natural flow of economics. The problem then becomes “when”. If it is past a year, it could actually not even enter into current investing. I have no good answer.
Hi Martin: First answer to your question, according to me. is cash, I’m 80% in cash right now from about 20% one month ago. Second is protect your positions with puts and calls so a radical market move down is covered by your put positions, or if you are playing for a down move then a radical move up is protected by call positions.
The BIG problem is the US Government and Greedy Business men. especially Big Bank Bankers. This is do to a lack of principal based leadership and an inexperienced leader as our President of the US.
My action about this is to get more involved in who is elected to our premium Govt. positions somehow.
l
Presently I am editing the US Constitution, because I firmly believe we must start at the beginning again and build from there.
I’ll end these comments right now with that.
Dick Mastromatteo
It seems to me this entire finaicial mess is the fall out of a global economy.Were one market is ill ,All sectors feel it.I never bought into the U.S. housing melt down led to the crisis.Rather foreign markets over growing ,unable to sustain (pay) for growth.i.e. bonds .Presuring bankers to over extend in U.S. real- estate market.The rest is history.
Washington is not going to do a damn thing about its (our) deficits except talk its usual idiocies. The problem is that we have allowed our government to change from a representative democracy to a democracy of politicians, each more worried about getting re-elected than about representing their constituencies. And no pure democracy has ever lasted very long. Some strong personality has always taken contol and turned it into a monarchy or dictatorship (basically the same thing).
Dr Weiss, thank you for all the insightful information I receive from you and all your experts, it has been a lifesaver for me. If the Dollar and our economy is in such dire
condition explain why Spot Gold is down over $48.00 per ounce ? (14.00 Time) Thursday
Thanks for your response!
Larry
The joke is that the criminal rating agencies still rate our debt AAA! How can this be, since the US Govt can only pay back its debt by printing or borrowing more money!? How is that even solvency — let alone AAA? In fact, it is arrant nonsense, and why we are all doomed — and that is only a question of “when, not if”! Thank you, moronic Keynesian government fools!
I’m sticking to my plan that I mentioned earlier in the week – if the Dow drops below 10,000 to 9,900 I will sell all of my long positions, and short the U.S. markets to the tune of 25% of my cash. I believe that a Dow below 10k and certainly below 9,900 are clear signals that we have seen a top. I am currently 35% invested, and believe that an ultimate crash is looming.
My opinion is precious metals on dips. When the long-term treasuries fall in value, erosion of the dollar will happen. Precious metals will become prized. There are also anti-long treasury etf’s and mutual funds that will do well.
I always try to enter in short timeframes with a tight stop while keeping longer term “targets”/ surfing the waves as long as possible. If the US economy does not grow can China, India and Brazil? Those stock markets seem to follow the US markets and if there was a decoupling would they not have their own life?
Thanks!
Patrik
Martin it seems strange that gold should be so clobbered as it is today with the problems abounding globally. I recall recently gold was dumped due to expectations of recovery an a rush to riskier assets. Today we have of the euro declining against the dollar due to potential soverign default and a rush to the dollar( implies bonds are not always secure) but US bonds are up, admnistration policies to restrict bank trading (implies limited naked short selling), dumping of all groups of assest and a rush to the dollar (in the face of massive dollar creation), underreporting of job losses (implies continued stimulus spending and lower revenue = bigger budget deficits.) I would think this decline in gold is engineered by bank short selling and manipulation (was the administration trying to get the banks to play ball or else with the tough talk) in an attempt to up the dollar and lower bond yields (helps finance the growing debt) . On the horizon there is soverign debt default, increased money creation and spending and less naked short selling of gold. Is the stock price decline the start of a longer trend?for
Does this mean that we are still looking for a Depression?
When is Mr. O going to get it?
I forgot to answer your question Martin: I adjust by having an itchy trigger finger. Sell it all and go short.
After seeing the debt limit raised by the US government one more time, it tells me that that our government is not intereseted in doing what the nation really needs to do, and that is to buckle down on our budget and do what it is sincerely right. It looks very similar to the Great Depression as about 1932, it would be fit to say about 2012. As what happened in the late twenties, when the banks of Austria loaned out money to the Eastern Europeans with nothing in return, it set off a domino effect that led to the Great Depression. I see the same thing happening today, but at a far worse affect, because we have no savings and no farms and no technology to handle this situation as we did back in the twenties and thirties. I believe that the US, Great Britain and Japan will be in far worse shape than in the Great Depression of the thirties, because the deficits are so high as well as the other reasons I just mentioned, and it will take some time for those countries to even get back to sane financial stability.
The Ponzi scheme created from the fractional reserve banking system and the other monetary games played by financial institution are coming to the forefront. I don’t know where were going but the tide of change is in the air everywhere. smoke and mirror games that come
This may not be a direct answer to your question, however the Obama Administration has displayed an incredible lack of economic knowledge and history by repeating the mistakes of the New Deal. They have even attempted to circumvent federal laws establishing TARP by attempting to direct TARP funds to other projects rather than paying down debt as required by TARP.
Debt is the greatest enemy this country has, and increasing it or refusing to pay it down, is a threat to our national security. Let me pose a question if you owed someone several billion (consevatively) dollars, and they opposed a course of action that you desired to take can you oppose them? Not on your life. They control your financial destiny, which in our case is on the road to ruin.
As a kid I can remember my father saying “Come the revolution”, well I think it may be here.
Can we know when the disaster is coming? Sooner rather than later. Keep cash and hard currency on hand, I never thought I would say this but I’m considering moving offshore to prevent total disaster.
Buy longer dated calls on the TBT ETF? Is that a good idea to hedge on raising TSY yields.
I guess the same holds true for junk bond funds.
So, where should we be investing?
I agree with your submission.
The people in Wash, DC from the Pres down have really done an excellent job in bringing this nation down to its knees and then some. How can we as citizens allow such a stupid
group of elected officials do this to us? Simple answer, we do not seem to take any interest in the action taken by the folks. These elected official have no knowledge of business, no training in the world of finance, they do not know a debt from a credit, not do they care as long as they can retain power and salary, (which is to high) Thanks for folks like you all we can be kept informed on what’s happening to our hard earned dollars and protect what we can. Will metals be affective in this movement?
Too bad the government did not put the bail out money in the hands of the people who needed it instead of big business. If the consumer can spend, businesses do not need a bail-out!
Thanks For Being a bless to me!Iam Think About a Chapter and Verse in Proverbs that say? better is a little with righteousness than great revenues without right. (A littleincome with righteousness is certainly better than great income without right!)REMEMBER HE SUSTAINER US ALL!HE IS WONDERFUL!
Does this not lead to the devaluing of the dollar ? WE had that under Nixon though in a different context.
does that mean it would be good to lock in on an low interest loan now, while the rates are low, if you were looking to refinance your current mortgage?
How do I adjust to events…..That’s one problem….I have no earthly idea!!!
I’m just dumping all LT bonds or converting them to ST. I’m about as low as I can afford to go with stocks and still (hopefully) be able to keep up with inflation. I’m down to about 20% overall. Most of my holdings are in fixed accounts or cash/equivalents.
NWW
If you would pay attention to your own words you would know that the smart thing to have done months or years ago was dump everything you could and put all your FRNs into gold and/or silver and take possession of the precious metal – anything else is playing Russian roulette.
Cheers,
Yadu
I along with many of your readers have listened to what you have been teaching for a long time. I have bought some silver & gold, paid down some debt and moved my retirement at work into short term treasuries. I believe that VERY BAD times are just around the corner and will wait until I receive solid advice before letting go of any cash. One of my biggest fears is that I will wake up one morning to learn that what little money that I have in the bank will be virtually worthless. I try to keep 6 to 12 months cash in reserves in case I lose my job, is the bank where I should keep it or should I put it in short term treasuries?
I get out when I see the writing on the wall. Thanks Martin
1. weeding out all American stocks
2. keeping gold and silver stocks and etf’s
3. keeping foreign etf’s – Brazil, India Taiwan, South Korea
4. kept Psq, bought QID
5. Looking for high income eqities
Knowing as we do that the big shoe is about to drop, just what do senior citizens like my wife and I (who are living on Social Security and our dwindling retirement income) do to survive the impending disaster?
Dear Martin,
I agree entirely with the view that the bond bubble will burst – sometime soon(?).
The only solution that I have come up with at present(as an investor who is Sterling-based) is to invest in ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Treasury, which of course is a US$ based ETF.
One of my aims at present is to move most of my investments out of Sterling for obvious reasons. But my concern is when the bond bubble bursts what will happen to the US$ ?
Can you give me your thoughts on this?
Many thanks, with best wishes, Ian.
I try to get completely OUT, even if I’m early. I stayed in some metal positions as I believe this correction is going to be mild before another move higher. I still have some foreign currencies that I believe will prosper when the dollar rally ends. I ran from all stocks prior to the 2008, disaster. I hold no bonds att this time.
Forewarned is forearmed. Markets make dramatic moves only rarely; but, when they deciide to move, the results are swift and decisive. It is difficult to gauge the “when”. So position yourself (in this case extermely defensively) before the impending waterfall collapse.
best regards,
Thanks for your insightful views
Ed
Clearly, the short rally at the beginning of this week was a blip of a correction in the return of the bear market that began in January. Short rallies like the one earlier this week will continue, but each time, the bears will roar back with a vengence. Its feels good to be a bear. Keep out of equities and hedge your folios with inverse ETFs. As long as the Obama team stays intact, with no clear vision on how to change our economic downfall, there’s little hope of a turnaround.
I listened to a economic watch expert this afternoon who explained that the deficit could theoretically rise indefinitely.As long as the Federal Reserve is in private ownership , the government could keep printing money adinfinitum.If the banks start loaning money , then interest rates would climb and inflation would raise its destructive head.A down grade on Americas debt will have an short term effect but long term just print money.Therefore timing will be difficult;but under these circumstances,inflation is inevitable.
What I don’t understand is why precious metals are going down at a time when things are falling apart. The worse things get the more inflationary actions need be taken to offset the problems. Oh, I know that there is fear that things will get so bad that there will be no money floating around to enable metal purchases, but is that reality when the gov’t owns printing presses and is obviously willing to use them 24/7?
I am 66 years old and still working. My 401(k) is at $35,400 – that is all I have and Social Security (which will be gone). What can I do right now so my 401(k) money does not go away? Help me please!
What to do if you know what, but don’t know when? Plan very well and wait until evidence is strong that your scenario is in fact unfolding. My scenario is now unfolding: Stocks crashing, Gold tanking, Silver off a cliff and the Dollar getting stronger. I am in with 10% of my money through ETF’s and will add to positions at good entry points. These trends have a long way to run yet. Think DJIA 4000, Gold $650, etc. I use 10% stops for all investments, just in case I’m wrong.
Well,if you’re that sure,I suppose you could buy the ultrashort Treasury ETF – is that TBT ?
We’ve got it equally bad in the UK, probably worse because the pound doesn’t have the protection of being the world’s reserve currency, as the dollar still is.
At the core of the problem lies the fact that left-wing politicians who have (in the main) never run a business, try to run huge capitalist economies. We’ve had 13 years of a ‘New Labour’ Government, who are basically socialists dressing themselves up as social democrats, just as the Obama administration does.
That means huge over-spending on politically correct quangos of every type imaginable, and enormous amounts of overseer public sector governance, trying to ‘keep-score’ on all sorts of bogus criteria dreamed up by the Stalinist political elite. Private business gets bogged down in red tape & regulations such as the proposed 6 months paternity leave for new fathers. How can a business work with that ?
The UK was creaking under the weight of all this over-governance/higher taxation even before the credit crunch, now we’re drowning.
In electing a tax & spend Obama administration, the American people have made the same tragic mistake.
Go to cash. Buy inverse ETF’s for 10 % of portfolio and another 10% in currencies.
Be nimble and don’t get married to any holding. Get off when it gets sheacky Markets will be very volatile for a while.
I start working out of risky positions, but not all at once becaue we never actually know
A great time to have a cabin in the woods, buy all the gold you can afford while prices are down, and aquire another case or two of ammo. I see no way we are ever going to return to “normal”
From what I gather you must be a Republican. You screwed the nation by going to war in Iraq. Wasted 3,000 young American lives in guise of weapons of mass destruction, spent billions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan, cut taxes to the rich. Where do you suppose the government is going to get the money to pay for the two wars and all the security here in the USA>. ( China ) China owns the USA already. When a great President try to help 40,000,000 Americans with medical help you start complaining about the deficit and scare the Republican Americans and Independents so they become like the rest of the Republicans a party of ” NO ” instead of work together to run a nation. I laugh when Republican put their hand on their heart and recite the national anthem. This all started on your watch, don’t blame Obama. Take responsibility for your actions.
Fwiw, I’ve noticed persistent, recurring patterns where the price of gold will hold pretty well or rise until the opening of the NYMEX market, and then there will be a predictable drop in price. This really got my attention a week or so ago, then faded. Today’s drop, granted, along with lots of other stuff, is a doozy.
Who is doing this? Is it institutions that were too big to fail? Is it the FED? Is it just BIG folks with more information than the rest of us? Somebody needs to keep their hands in their pockets and out of everyone else’s.
This f ing government is out of control.They should vote no on the debt limit increase If the population is 10 percent unemployed and i say that loosely then the government should also be cut by that amount. Fire these lazy do nothing bloated pigs.
How do you adjust to major fundamental events that are clearly carved in stone, when you don’t know WHEN they’ll begin to impact the markets?
Dr. Weiss,
The answer to this question is the one that will make the average man rich (you already know this). But, as for myself, I cannot come up with an investment that will pay a fair return and at the same time be immune to the gravitational pull of the next credit melt down. I fear that a downgrade of the “full faith and credit” of the United States of America will pull all markets into the tank. If you know how to prepare for this serious possibility, please let us know. Are short-term treasuries and gold the only safe vehicles? Even if one is prepared, would there be anything worth investing in after a U.S. credit downgrade and subsequent melt down?
Perhaps there is a clue in figuring out what the G-20 might do together once they knew that a downgrade for the U.S. was in the offing. They have to be planning for such an event, or already planning to make a move now, before it happens. Is Bernake leading this pack? If he is, what kind of wacky scheme would he likely pull?
I thank you for officiating this forum. I have a feeling that you are trying to lead us out of the desert and to the promised land, but just haven’t found a way to part the waters. YET!
WJW
While I know higher interest rates will drop the value of individual bonds and open end bond funds, what will the effect be on closed end bond funds – both U.S. closed end bond funds and foreign closed end bond funds. Will they be less hurt or more hurt
What do you do with money in 401k’s and Roth IRA’s to protect one’s saving and investments?
Gee…..Martin, As far as I’m concern at this point of time in DC…..Where’s the Terrorist when you need them!
We need to get rid of all incumbents in DC and Start over, making sure we don’t allow any Progressive’s back in office!
I am worried with this economy…What concerns me the most is the dollar devaluation ! There’s a lot of talks that soon it will be amero. Is this possible and how soon ? Pls advice asap…
Thanks.
Greenspan makes it perfectly clear in his book AGE OF TURBULENCE that the U.S has priced itself out of the world labor market. In 1990 as China/Russia changed to free market economics someone should have shouted “what the hell is going to happen to world labor prices with 3.5 billion people joining the “supply”. It has taken 15+ years for those countries to develop their infrastructure and allow their labor (products) to get to market. The U.S cannot produce anything and compete. Only our natural resources and major distribution systems are world marketable.
Let’s take our medicine and devalue the Dollar to 50% of it’s current exchange worth. Any other action is just delaying the inevitable. Yes, it’s a bitter pill to swallow, but Adam Smith’s invisible hand will never work with the convuluted government intervention policies that are keeping us afloat. The resulting U.S public outcry will sweep out the existing politicians and centralized government controls. Maybe then we can go back to our original constitution with it’s decentralized government via “states rights”.
How to adjust to major fundamental events when they are sure to happen is to prepare in advance. Review your portfolio in detail and sell positions which will be most effected in a negative way. Nobody can tell you the exact time to get out of the market or when these events will take place. Just “Be Prepared”. What ever I do won’t be a 100% satisfactory but at least I tried. I will never be a 100% cash.
I’m all in stock right now-no bonds, 12% metals ETF’s (mostly miners). Wish I had a little cash on days like today…Hoping it will be similar to last year, i.e., get pummelled for a few months, then move up. I smoked the market by hanging in there last year (up 61% from lowest point, and 31% on the calendar year). Will do the same this year. However, this time, more international exposure to higher quality stocks bought at better price relative to valuation fundamentals. Also, I sell out a position, even at a significant loss, if the price makes a sudden, dramatic, positive jump. Europe and China are a disaster, S. America will follow Australia, which depends on China. Pretty much no where to park safely right now…I do, however, like oil refiners and the bigger oil companies long-term.
Up until the meltdown last year, I kept a long term view of investing: Hold and stay the course. However, after the meltdown, I am not so sure of that philosophy. I tried to diversify into gold, and some less volatile, and less risky investments, like money markets, and bonds, both foreign and domestic.
No one knows the future. Indeed the Bible says it well, to live one day at a time. All we can do is take the information we have available, and with sound investment advice, make the decision that best fits our philosophy, our risk tolerance, and most important of all, that will provide for our families.
What about savings accounts, when interest goes sky High will they be the place to be?
i’m limited from diversification because of my job choice and its 401k. I have only bought into the market with it once. That was last year in oct. I bought Janus overseas for 3 weeks and it paid off. I have had my 401k sitting idle ever since. I put 1,000 dollars in it each month with no opportunity for growth because of this crazy lying market. The FED’s are not honest they manipulate the system to cause political gain. How can we invest with any hope. We’ve been sold a lie. All I can do is protect my money in an annuity that’s guranteed and fixed. Street.com will tell me which co. is safe. What to do?
So let’s all see. Stocks are toast, bonds are unsafe, cash is being devalued, and foreign governments/markets will go down with the mother ship (aka U.S.A). I pulled all of my money out of the market a month ago. It’s all built on a house of cards right now. I’m in 10% gold, some treasuries, and the rest in cash spread around numerous carefully selected banks, in case one goes down and Uncle Sam defaults on their FDIC guarantee. It may not be the best solution but I don’t see any alternatives. As for knowing when the hammer will be coming down, I’m sure it’s soon. The damage is done and we’re just waiting for the outcome.
Tbt
i believe long term metal play doesnt start untill next fall at which time the dollar should peek at maybe around 88… who knows for sure about the bond market if equities tank bonds may float awhile… i’ am 100 % short stocks untill monday tuesday at which time i may take a small long position
Above i read where an investor says he even considers going ‘off shore’. Well, i did and the next thing i knew Stanford was another ponzi scheme with 100,000.00 of my money ( off shore ). Be careful, everyone.
It sounds like , ” prepare for the worst” – now ( going cash, gold, and silver ? ). Let’s not wait until it’s too late !
Martin, what would you do? ? None of us know the best direction to move.
This is the redistribution of wealth. There is nowhere to hide as far as I can see. As a senior it is hard but I am not faced with losing a job, only my home. Thanks for your wonderful thoughts. I can only read what you share with me online.
Question: How do you adjust to major fundamental events that are clearly carved in stone, when you don’t know WHEN they’ll begin to impact the markets:
I wish I was an expert but since I’m not I’d prefer Martin, who is an expert to answer the question and lay out a game plan.
options? TBT?
Banks? Savings Accounts? HA… trust our government … GOLD GOLD GOLD I say…One must ask “why did we stray away from the gold and silver standards of backing our dollars” just answer that for an solid investment guidelines TODAY
I try to begin at the end of a major change and work my way back to where we are now, the beginning. I see the end of this major shift in the financial empire of the USA as being an event that few people can envision and even worse, comprehend. If I miss the perfect exit point in the markets by 3-6 months, I feel strongly that the potential long term profit will make up for my timing error. With this in mind, I am setting up foreign bank accounts which I will be making all my future savings and trades with. I feel that at some point in the near future there will be an event that will prohibit this opportunity. At this time, I figure that anything I have left inside the borders of the USA will become completely worthless before this is over.
I’m 40% silver in hand, and the rest in cash. I wonder what is likely to happen to small farmers like me ? I grow produce for local sales. In and effort to help feed people going hungry around here I have also started a community grow operation to feed free food into the various hunger programs here. We are already living in a depression. No jobs, no food for many. As a business hedge I am loading up on seed, hard to believe it has come to this, pathetic really.
I am beginning to realize the stock market is a fools game. The majority holders of shares of these Dow stocks which we base the average on manipulate the market thru shorting and hedgeing.The average investor does not stand a chance in this dodge & weave game. One cannot have all investments in stocks, commodities, ect some cash has to be held. I think the US Stock market is a sham. I think I may try the currency trades, specifically Canada which trades 6% higher on the dollar than the US paper.When are they change the companies in the Dow Jones average to really reflect good company growth and play fair!
Well, for one, I’m looking at everything, not just my investments. I am going to refinance my house to take advantage of these temporary interest rates. I am minimizing debt personally and in my small business, hanging on to cash in the form or short term treasuries and hedging what I do have invested in securities with inverse ETF’s. This could end up being another dry spell of undetermined length for heavy industrial businesses that are already hurting.
Until I fully understand what this animal is going to look like, I feel like it’s time for capital preservation on the downswing and then profits on the upswing.
Thanks Dr Weiss, for the update… I just take it a day at a time…
I got up this AM, turned on to Bloomberg and saw Gold down
and Dow futures down and Dollar up…Cranked up my computer,
bought 500 GLL,200 SDS, 200 UUD, and shortly before the closing
bell I sold my SDS and 200 SH which I had bought before…
I can sleep well tonight knowing the Gold will keep going down
and the Dollar will keep going up !!!
Hope your day was as good as mine was !!!
Dr Rich
The way I adjust to major fundamental events is to proceed cautiously so I can react to the events when I have a good feel for what is transpiring. Things can change quickly and unexpectedly so I proceed cautiously!
Mainly Energy, commodies and gold to protect against inflation. Other stocks are largely Chinese with a few from Brazil. I use double inverse ETFs to give a little protection from drops(DUG.SMN,SDS)(single inverse DGZ for a small fraction (10%) of gold holdings).
Then I wait, get whomped and hope they come back.
Another good question. These just seem like weird times to me. With this “debt crisis”, I am dealing with things that are foreign to me. Noone seems to really grasp the depth of the issues. How big was the subprime issue? According to the Government there wasn”t even an issue for a long time. Where are all of these toxic assets? Are they still at levels that could destroy massive wealth. How big an issue is the latest – Soveriegn Debt? Official statements seem to be downplaying its magnitude.
What do you do when you are confronted with our current situation? Inflation or deflation or stagflation? Deflation then inflation? What strategies are there that won’t have a major effect? Do you go to cash and short term treasuries, buy precious metals? Commodities? Stocks? Corporate Bonds? With the way Governments (all) are meddling in economies – things change daily. Rhetoric is also just rhetoric – it isn”t backed up by actions. I feel like I am on a roller coaster ride in a dark tunnel and can’t see the end of the ride.
I am no youngster and went through all the problems of the 70s, 80s and 90s. just hope I can survive through the 2000s. This time is even more critical though. At my age it is now for real. Don’t have the 20-50 year long term horizon to wait it out.
About 2 years ago, I heard someone from Midas Resources to buy physical gold and silver. I did purchase some at that time. Last year I wondered if that was not such a good idea – now I am back to feeling like it is. Also good to buy storable food as a precaution. As far as my dwindled savings – I am not sure what to do. Some say the $ will still crash eventually so CDs and Annuities may not even be safe. I do feel U.S. stocks are not safe at this point in time and will meet with my broker Tuesday to move out of my stocks into something else!
Whenever you talk about bonds, it’s always about treasury’s which I have some and apppreciate your comment. However, I wonder what you think about the various muni bonds than individuals buy for their retirement; they are stuffy and not too exciting plodding along with straight simple interest; but what about their safety. In view of what’s going on, is it efficatious to invest lots of retirement money into short term regional muni bonds? It’s a huge market and if it is destine to crash, it’s depression time again!!
I am a Weiss Elite member and I have to admit that I didn’t buy one stock recomended on Jan. 4th 2010. So I doubt, if this blog will get posted. I did not buy any of the Uncommon wisdom stocks. I did the same for the Brazilian stocks. Who could have expected China to pull the plug. Give them a couple of months and they will turn the lights back on and I will then take positions in some of the recommended stocks, but not now. The same goes for Brazil. The guy who wrote the Brazil picks had some really good picks in my opinion, but not quite yet. Timing is everything in my book.
This correction had to come. It’s good for the health of the market. One individual was in metal stocks and gold. The metals stocks tanked today as they should have because of the strong dollar. If you think we are in trouble, just look at the Euro. It’s down, as it should be. It is tanking. Wait until Greece rolls over with debt at 100% of the GDP. That is an accident looking for a place to happen.
Gold finished the day down $45.90 to $1062.95, as it should have. When it hits my buy point, I will buy the ETF DGP. It will be a home run with a 2X multiple. It would take too much time and space to explain what is happening and why. Yes, just before the close, I bought 8,000 shs of BAC at $14.80. Not the bottom, but close enough for govt. work. Call me crazy, but I think it will see $25 to $30 within one year. the banks are not going to fold. The govt. has said as much, so make money, don’t put your money under your collective mattresses. For the more adventuresome you can look at FAS with a 3X multiple, but you had better strap in with a five point shoulder harness, if you ride that puppy.
One last thing, the market always goes down a lot faster than it goes up. I hedged my BAC buy with the ETF VXX just after I saw the market start to roll over this morning. I knew that I might get a chance to make the BAC buy before the end of the day. VXX finished the day up $2.21 at $38.03. For every long trade you have to hedge with a short trade. That’s the way it works 365 days a year. One last note, I spend 10 hours a day doing this. It’s not a hobby. It’s called research, research, research. May everyone live long and prosper, as Mr. Spock would way.
Good trading,
Edward Vernon
Of course, I have fears like most everyone else. My major holdings are equities, and I plan to begin getting out as many as I can. Many of the problems the nation faces are the problems brought on by greed in the financial markets. I do not know how that will ever be resolved!! At age 73, I have not seen a time that compares with the greed and lust for wealth through less than honorable means!! And as for politics…the leftist socialists that control Washington, and many state governments is destroying what is left of our nation. Power and control drives the political systems today, never considering the well being of the nation or the “American” citizens!! I fear for the future!!
I wish I had the answers, I would gladly share them. I am searching for answers like many others. I hope this blog will offer some advice we can all consider. The mistakes that were made in the elections of 2008 just may be the undoing of America, and if we make it to the 2010 elections, I pray those mistakes can be corrected…if not I fear a major castastrophe is in our future. The financial decisions made today must be based on the political situations we are facing. I would like to see Dr. Weiss address some of the problems in this area as they pertain to investing!!
Remember Nov. 2010. Hopefully we will still have the right to vote!!!
I’m hedged for any event.Have a few low priced gold stocks that are leveraged to inflation and Dollar devalution.Have some good times stocks that are strong companies,able to withstand hard times, that will do well if the economy gets better.They also are multinational companies so not dependent on only the U.S.Have cash to survive if I’m wrong and deflation takes hold.
I feel that the stock market is not the place to be in these trying times.
The fact that the masses are loading into bonds should tell you that isn’t the place to be.Rising inflation/Dollar devaluation will devastate bonds of all kinds.
So let’s see. The government loans the banks billions of taxpayer dollars. They make a fortune manipulating the market with it and taxpayers get stuck repaying the principal. Sounds like a great deal to me, not. Good reason to stay out of stocks until we get rid of the people in Washington. I ask Martin, is there an honest investment anywhere.
Martin
I feel the only way to invest in todays market is to use ETF’s. The ETF’s i’m talking are short Etf’s. Short the indexes and some selected industries like the Financial industy as well as Technology-MSCI Emerging Markets. I guess what I’m trying to say don’t buy long any company stock.
The market is headed for a long slid south so ride the sled and enjoy
I think a person’s best bet is to load up on precious metals, gold and silver,
coins, etc. because this country cannot, I said cannot go on living above
its means and borrowing, borrowing, borrowing with no idea how they
are going to pay it back. What ever happened to common sense in this
country and in our government. Politics is going to takie this country down
and we are going to be back with the Indians and their way of living which
might not have been so bad considering the way this country is doing.
What do you think Martin. Our standard of living is going to have to go
down with the situation at hand. I can see food lines, gas lines, etc. Where is
this going to stop???????
I am down to 15% of our investments in stock, and most of that is gold, and things that people are going to need as times get worse, and they will. It is time to think seriously of how to get rid of our elected idiots and look hard for capable people who are more concerned with our welfare than that of big corportations, banks etc. WE continued to re-elect people who do not have our real interests at heart, so we must take some of the blame. Now is the time to spend some of our energy on looking for replacements, not just crying in our beer.
Deflation? Inflation? What kind of environment ARE we in? You could make a case for both. Many have. My thoughts are that deflation will continue to drive the bus for the short term (“short term” = deliberately vague), Until the banks start loaning money to mainstreet. Without a peek at the Fed’s balance sheet, who can really say how much liquidity is in the system. I am looking for the current correction to settle around the Dow 7200-7400 range. This should create enough buying pressure in bonds to finally prick the bond bubble. Tough sledding. Tough planning.
I am confused.When I sell a loseing stock it goes up, even if the market keeps going down. When I buy a good stock that has been going up it tanks. I thing the best solution is 100% cash. I am about 30% cash. If we get a bounce I am selling all of my loosers. I might sell everything anyway. I see what it looks like tomorow. Pray for me. THANKS
Dear Martin,
Talk about the perfect storm and some not well recited history lesson. March 31st The Fed stops supporting downward pressure on mortgage rates, the treasury is already backing out. Fannie and Freddie bankrupt, MBS’s still looked on as toxic by private sector, money supply exploding out of control, federal deficits skyrocketing, and Moody’s threatening downgrade of US credit rating. Unemployment actually around 20%-25% not 10%-11%, and everyone hedging with precious metals against certain inflation (HYPER). ALARM AND COFFEE TIME FOLKS it is all a pipe dream. Hedge with metal, play shorts and make worthless money on both, but when it hits rock bottom and we’re in a depression again like 1932, the government will outlaw your metal ownership and arbitrarily set it’s price to reset the clock just as they did in 1933. My opinion you better all know a few simple things. 1) how to build your own shelter 2) how to farm and/or hunt 3) people skills so you can barter for what you can’t raise or kill or build with someone who can provide you with what you can’t. I can do all these and invest. God bless and hope you have time to learn these backstops. Can’t eat gold so no need to take possession of it.
I can’t sleep after seeing my account drop 3 or 4 grand in one day.I have pulled out of mkt till this correction is over. I have read lots of ideas, but nothing sounds safe.I would be happy with a safe 10% investment. My advice, wait till you think the mkt correction is almost over, then average into gold, and silver daily, and then when you have bought all you can afford, put it in a safe place.I believe your profit will be over 100% in less than a year.I would Do 80% silver and 20% gold.
I’m invested in Silver. Worried about the continuing downhill slope that started this week with the metals. I’m thinking, do I sell now and take a beating, or wait it out? Not sure I have nerves of steel.
We have been in an “all the same market” since 2002 where disparate investments travel (more or less) in the same direction with the lone exception being the US dollar which has moved inversely to everything else. BRIC equities, gold, silver, and commodities are emphatically NOT safe havens from the deflationary decline in all asset classes that has resumed presently (following a 10 month reflationary correction of the bear market from 3/09-1/10) and will likely continue through 2010 and 2011. The only “safe” place for assets until the deflation ends (debt bubble finally unwound) is safe cash (e.g. T bills).
Well said, Victor Fenech.
I cant believe that so many people [in America] have not woken up to the fact that it was previous governments that have created this mess. And yes i agree bigger deficits are very bad [thats not Obamas fault remember] but if nothing was done [and i agree to much was done, thanks to Bernanke] then America would have already crashed completely and this debate would not have even been a worth while conversation.
I sincerely thank you for your great work and insights Martin.
Rodney
I am surprsied to see that nobody is looking at annuities. They are a way of locking in a return and insuring a future cash flow. I would suggest that you consider SPDAs (Single Premium Deferred Annuities) as a way of locking in a future, known income level. Let us not forget that investing is about our financial futures.
Exactly the way I´ve repeated many times in your blog. Park your money in 3 & 6 month treasuries and have the patience to wait until the “s**t really hits the fan.” If we are headed for the economic mess that Martin is predicting, everything will go down. Today´s market was an example of exactly that. Patience and Cash will pay great dividends over the next couple of years. If one doesn´t have the knowledge or stomach for shorting, stay in cash and wait. It will be very easy to make big profits if you are liquid to buy after everything falls off the cliff. That goes for stocks, gold, silver etc., or bonds paying 10% or more !!!…………..GOOD LUCK !!!!
Gentlemen:
Between Mr. Bernanke’s efforts to kill the US$ and Mr. Obama trying to socialize the country by creating a crisis and miraculously solving it by taking advantage of the crisis, I believe the crash is not very far away because we’re all living in a house of cards now.
American are beginning to wake up but it’s not going to happen quick enough to get rid of the villains. They will probably be the one claiming to be our saviors.
Nat Hoover
As far as the market and the economic situation ,we have to wait for some stability .JJR
When I was a “young buck” one of my high-school teachers, a philosopher more than a teacher of history, used to tell us: “Whenever there is some noisy rumble you (my students, of a private elite school) can’t understand (being at least “half” smart), then, there is some cat “hiding under the table”…” By that, he meant and used to tell us, that humankind is such that we resemble the animals of nature in the wild. For example, we LOVE to play the game of our feathered friends: Hide our heads in a hole, under the earth, while all H_ _ _ is breaking loose above and ‘whizzing by our derrieres’… This, by the way, is called the “Ostrich Syndrome”. Meanwhile, we’ve been playing the game of religion and waging our “crusades”…while the question of moneys and power –whichever one wishes to place first– (the only other reason for conflicts on earth) have been looming over our ever changing atmospheric and weather patterns after the much heralded warning signals of our increasingly warMing atmosphere! …and speaking of WARMING, I’m looking for my copy of “The Guns of August”… Anyone seen it?! After all —grin— today’s N.Y. Times mentions “China Shows Little Patience for U.S. Currency Pressure”…and…so on, and so forth… it only takes two to _ _ _ _ _ _!!! Pray we all be blessed!!!
We have 90% in cash, 10% in a balanced 401k fund and we are absolutely seriously considering stocking up on bourbon, vodka and gin. Easy for bartering should the need arise!
Thus far I have diversified internationally between China and developing markets in Europe. as well as kept my positions in silver bullion.Those are the investments that thus
far are still appreciating for me (until the recent pullback in silver which I expect to change)
I am a patient investor and am still bullish on metals and will hold for awhile longer. However, I think China, Chile, Columbia, Brazil, India, Ireland, and selected eastern Eureopean countries have good opportunities for investment. .
I believe that we have started to see small increment shifts in the market for the degrading of or economy in for the near term which is about to implode without any outward signs given, steps should have already been put in place for this event.
Martin, When will we know, how do we defend ourselves? There is no way. The way the government lies about all the numbers they release, the economy and etc. We will not know about the real inflation number and the real value of the dollar until the whole thing blows. One Monday morning [after an all night session of congress] we will hear the anouncement that the inflation is topping 20% and they have adjusted the value of the dollar 5 to 1. suprise, suprise, just like it was when Mexico made their adjustment. All has been done for “the good of the american people”. “we have saved the enonomy and your personal wealth again, we need for you to call upon your patroitism once more and bring us your 401k balance sheet and we will rapp up the problem”.
Test yourself with a little MATH 101 and your answer will tell you where the USA is heading. Over and Over and OVER again, the President says he inherited a $1.3 Trillion deficit. Not TRUE. The actual 2008 deficit was $600 Billion + a $700 Billion TARP Bailout. The TARP was an extraordinary financial event that was actually a LOAN Program for the Banks. $500 Billion of the TARP money was PAID back in 2009……… so if our deficit was $600 Billion in 2008 and $500 Billion of TARP was paid back ……… our 2009 deficit should have been only $100 Billion + whatever extra decrease in tax revenue that was not collected between 08 & 09. Our deficit in 2010, should go back to $600 Billion – with $200 Billion in outstanding TARP. So – here is the question – how does a $600 Billion deficit balloon to $1.4 Trillion in less than one year and how come the 2010 Budget that was just rolled out equate to $1.9 Trillion. Simple MATH – we and our economy are in for a real wake up call until someone removes the checkbook from Washington. And sadly – it might be to late. This is going to be another rocky ride …….. Spain, Greece and Portugal are all going BUST – thats why the dollar is currently rallying. We are currently looking “good” compared to other world currencies – but that is like bragging about your favorite NFL Team for winning its division with a 6 & 10 record – because everyone else in your division finished 2 & 14. The Odds on favorite for this year’s economic superbowl is CHINA. But I do love underdogs !! God Bless – please be safe !
Gentlemen:
Between the Fed’s efforts to kill the US$ and others in an attempt to socialize the country by creating a crisis and miraculously solving it by taking advantage of the crisis, I believe the crash is not far away. We are all sitting in a burning Rome while the Neros fiddle.
American are beginning to wake up but it’s not going to happen quick enough to get rid of the villains. They will probably be the one claiming to be our saviors.
Nat Hoover
The only solution is increase the holdings in gold and silver both physical and in paper and commodities.
If you have had a good investment plan with your 401’s an IRA’s then get with a pro who can tell you what is the best split for paying down bills as say home loans, etc;, and reinvesting in something the Govt. can not freeze such as maybe metals or real estate.
Current Gov. is out of control regarding ALL areas of economics and finance. Just a note on Short Sales which is prevelant at this time nationwide: Those homeowners that think they may be cutting a “fat hog” by short selling their property have a rude awakening on the horizon. Lenders are co-operating right now with borrowers to short sale their homes instead of foreclosing. Reason: Many states that are involved are anti-defficiency states and Realtors and Homeowners DO not know how the anti-defficiency laws apply. I am NO Attorney but I am street smart enough to know that anti-defficiency laws apply ONLY to “foreclosures” or judicial sales and DO not apply to short sales. These Homeowners are all going to be hit “big time” with defficiency judgements in the future and also a 1099 “phantom income” which law passed in 07 also only applies to “foreclosures” and NOT short sales. Advantage to Lenders? Offset the loss on their accounting with the defficiency judgements counter acting the loss. Another financial fiasco that will NO doubt cause another bailout stimulus to our economy. We are heading “downhill” very, very fast with the current political parties and administration. Just MY 2 cents.
I use a method of a trailing stop for the S&P 500 for stocks on a weekly basis.
America’s Days Numbered? The Wrath of God is Coming….
NIV Hosea 4:6
my people are destroyed from lack of knowledge. “Because you have rejected knowledge, I also reject you as my priests; because you have ignored the law of your God, I also will ignore your children.
This will come very soon. We Are Almost There! With No Apologies,
Rapture on May 21, 2011 Look Biblical Timeline History.
Thanks & Regards
God Listen
When it looks like rain, it ususally does. There are lots of “weathermen” out there describing what’s coming. In the markets, setting yourself up to profits as things get worse is the only way to “MAKE” money during those times. Back in November 2007, I saw the national handwriting on the wall and went totally short throughout 2008 to end the year +65% while the rest of the world’s die-hard “buy only” gurus lost 40% for themselves and their clients.
When you walk along the edge of a cliff, the view is awesome, but if you mis-step or the edge of the cliff caves in, you’d better be wearing a parachute. Think of yourself as a “Financial James Bond” who is outrageously prepared for the worst at all times and he uses his protective devices when he perceives the danger. When you “Sell Short,” it’s like having a parachute with a motor that keeps you in the air while you look around for a good place to land. If you get out of the market, you admit defeat and hole up in case somewhere. If you buy precious metals, well, gold has already fallen 15% since early December and it’s looking further down as I write (2/4/10). Precious metals, like oil, always jump in times of turmoil because fear dictates. So if you rush to buy the metal, are you going to take it to the store to buy food? Are you going to take it to the bank and trade it for cash you need right now? Metals will rise and fall. And if there are no more buyers out there, the price falls and you become worse off than if you has just put your cash under the bed.
No, my friend, to fight this national ugliness, you have to do the things that make money to preserve you buying power and hopefully make it faster than that. Why to you think the bankers want those multi-million-dollar bonuses? That’s their risk-free way of storing up for the day of disaster. We lesser lights have to get out into the market place and trade in such a way as to profit from the current trends, no matter what they are.
Now… to answer the basic question that relates to trying to read a crystal ball, “everyone knows” that interest rates have to rise and for more than just one reason. If longterm bonds are the mechanism to fight the looming threat, then you have to find your own entry point, sell them short and manage you position, just like you do when times are good and you are a buyer. “Solutions” are NEVER straight-line. You or someone for you will have to manage your attempts to make a buck. You cannot see yourself as “an investor.” That hasn’t worked for years. People who bought and held as far back as 1994 are worse off today after 16 years. Nope, you have to see yourself as “a trader.” Some people who want to be buyers only spell that “a traitor.” They think it’s perverse to make money at other’s expense. Well, dear, the market is going down no matter what you think, so why not make some money while you’re waiting for your boom times to reappear?
When you don’t know when, someone has to stand watch in the night, climb up to the crow’s nest, take the pointman position, watch the radar… you get the idea, right? Whether the trend is national in scope or related to a single company or futures contract, you have to consider the nature of the pending dangers, you have to establish your defensive position and then send out patrols (go short) to gather up what you need in the way of intelligence and supplies to aid you in staying alive.
Whether bonds or beans, looks for things that are moving and go with them to make money… in either direction. If a simple answer were available, the owner of that answer would be exceedingly rich and the rest of us would have an easy life. Back in 2008, when I was raking it in going short, I actually didn’t like the way I felt in general because I want good things to happen to everyone all the time. And back then, not very many were happy. Today, it looks like Round Two with foreclosures, unemployment, crime, natural disasters, national spending excesses in an attempt to manufacture prosperity, the threats of terrorism and credit disasters everywhere. So what can you do about all of it? Not much, but you CAN work on what you CAN control. In the market place, identify a trend, place your order and manage your position. That you can do and be sure you keep your losses small!
I have listened for a while, yes you make your money in the stock relm, bonds, money, gold, commodities, ect. The dollar will get stronger like we have seen today. The mess around the globe is bad, we look like the best of the bad. Gold will go down because of this, in all estimates it will go down to 980.00. You shall see. It is hard to figure politics, they have no brain. Try this, try that. OOOPs didn’t work. Hey, lets go socialist.
Lets brake the system, go to all cash everyone. Lets not wait, the mood of the crowd is not good. Regular people are fed up, (slip on words). Eveyone thinks that everyone will be cival. Take another look. Remember the power outage in NY, gangs romed the streets for four days. Cartrinia, police took guns from house to house. This is not fun and games. You think it is a fair game, just a short time ago, Google droped like a rock, what did they do. Dis allowed the trades, fixed the paper and start again. What will them do when you want or need your money. Three to four day wait or longer. They run it you are players in their game. Stay liquid, you can always join back in. There is a wave of bad news across the pond. EU money, what money, bonds what bonds, goverment to goverment, I owe you what, tough *&^%, come and get it.
Buy American dollars sell the rest, if you can now. Aaaaa, gone are the days where you could get information that was truthfull, all reports are redone two months later. Look at un employment for Friday. Re adjusted, ooopss. Sorry. The looters and moocher are in control now and it is going to be tough sledding. Stay liquid, buy little bit of gold on the way down, remember, cheap money, buy gold, money is not going to be cheap for very much longer, have to sell your gold and pay back the cheap money. Whip lash. God bless America, we are going to need him more that ever. That is the silver lining. Amen
The answer to your question; protect what you can, do not spend on anything that is not a necessity, do not invest until you are clear on your choices, educate yourself as much as possible…and do not worry about the future or you will not have one :)
Liquidity helps. Of equal concern to me is the possibility of 401s and IRAs being nationalized. The 10% in bonds is just the Trojan Horse. Meetings have been held within the administration discussing the advantage to the Feds taking control of the 14-15 trillion in retirement programs. I would welcome your thoughts on the possibility of this becoming a reality.
Martin- I’ve enjoyed you for so many years I can’t even say. I’m a Master OSJ Stockbroker/RIA with 150 independent RR advisors under my supervision across the USA. AIG was my partner for 12 years till Oct “09. I was AIG/FSC’s largest Master office. I’ve followed and agreed with most everything you’ve had to say. The only time I really felt upsit was when you quit calling this a depression. When I left AIG/fsc it made the front of Investment new’s paper. I say all this simply as a matter of introduction. Bravo, I believe your father would be proud. Like you my father was in the business before, my family owned a NASD (FINRA) b/d. I’ve trained over a thousand reps and always recommended your new letter. Right now I’m rebuilding my downline of independent RR’s across America. Would enjoy meeting and talking sometime, who knows the possibilities. Gods Blessings- Alan
Some more “evidence.”
The rally in U.S. government debt came even as Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.
It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”
If only our Leader would set up Infrastructure projects both here and abroad. That’s the way to create jobs for many of our unemployed!. while their numbers are still growing!I’m looking into Canadian stocks,which seem less volitile than ours.
inverse etf.s seems like the place to be in
As long as we extend the Favored Trading Nation to Communist China, our economic situation will continue to worsen. Millions of tax supporting jobs in the entire North America, primarily United States, have been lost and we are still losing an average of 700,000 jobs a month, according to President Obama. This is taking the buying power of Americans and exporting it to the greatest long term enemy we have ever had, thereby destroying our economy. Those jobs that have been lost were tax supporting, leaving our public coffers empty; the coffers that paid for all public services including fire and police protection, schools, welfare, medical care for the poor, etc. No magical trick that the Democrat party, including Obama’s poorly planned printing of hollow money, well ever bring back the secure days we knew under the Reagan Administration.
Perhaps this is their plan; to destroy our economy, allowing a window for a centralized government power play, thereby ursurping State’s Rights powers in direct opposition to our Constitution, to the point of having a national power blanket and nationalizing virtually everything as in a socialized nation without the individual being allowed to own anything except personal belongings. Please recall the word represented by the second “S” in USSR – Socialist. Socialism, Communism, and Marxism all have the same bottom line, loss of all rights. Obama’s cabinet members and others appointed by him have more than alluded to this their ultimate goal, surrendering our way of life to China’s dream of a communist world, and we have all seen how well that has worked in other nations. No, there is no realistic way of rescuing us from the damage done until we wake up to the reality of how the damage has been engineered and continues to be executed.
When in this situation, I rely on that part that lies between my Gut and my Brain.
Hello Again Martin: My response is always steady..
A. Be debt free business and personal including your home and A to Z- OWE NOTHING!
B. Diversify, diversify, diversify – gold-silver-farmland-foreign currency-hold cash as king,
bonds,have strong reserves, tithe your income to God.
Why post anything else here you never post anything I say anyway. I wonder why that is.
Donald R. Reynolds
Even Gold and Oil got hit and hit hard today….where do we put our $$$$$$ now?….Nothing is safe !!
I see huge problems with our country’s debt, as well as most of the industrialized nations. Several use Japan as a shining example of how we should spend ourselves out of debt (a stupid idea!), without recognizing they have the highest debt per capita of any industrialized country. America is HUGELY in debt, a weight that we can NOT continue swimming with. It will drag us down. In answer to those who simply blame “The Government”, I say look to yourselves. Who voted in these spendthrift officials? It is “we the people” who are glad to use debt to get what we want without regard to the long term results of debt. We blame officials for greed, but each of us has been complicit. (I praise God I am now personally debt free.)
The issue of interest rates soaring is problematic as well. The US needs to sell its bonds to pay its debts, so we expect the rates to soar to bring in the buyers. However, with the Federal Banking System here and the Central Banking System worldwide, we have seen that the rates CAN and are being manipulated. What other time in history has seen soaring inflation (figures on CPI are ludicrous – bought electricity, groceries, gas lately?) without soaring interest rates? Yet today inflation is eating our buying power, while interest rates are manipulated lower, keeping those of us with cash from receiving higher interest income as offsets against inflationary costs.
Another point that concerns me, is the substantial holdings of gold by most large governments and those controlling our economic fates (top three holdings: USA, Germany, IMF; with SPDR’s GLD 6th). One report says 25% of the world’s gold is stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vault, most owned by foreign governments. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t really make me feel secure. One scenario has the governments dumping gold to raise cash. This would keep the coffers full of cash to pay our bills (most especially our govt payrolls), but drive the price of gold much lower. Also, due to herd mentality, as soon as a government began selling gold in large amounts, driving prices down, many would also begin selling their holdings (institutional holdings as well as speculators), thus causing a depressed price for gold without truly helping the debt situation.
I believe we are in for very stormy times ahead. As I told friends about the scare over 2000, when others were hoarding food, fuel, etc, “If your neighbors are starving and freezing, and you have food and fuel, don’t you think they will band together, kill you, and take your goods?”
As to hoarding cash, it will be nearly worthless if the US Govt fails or stumbles to the extent many expect.
I am reminded of a song “Are we rolling downhill like a snowball headed for he*%?”. I believe we are rolling downhill, and the snowball is just growing. Look at the growth in our national debt in just the last 3 years!
Can we survive this? Yes, but it will be a far different world than the America I knew growing up in the sixties. We must learn to live on our incomes, and re-learn the art of self sufficiency. God Bless.
Obama seems to be listening to the wrong folks. He seems to be surrounded by guys who want to undermine this country and undermine his presidency. Obama wants to run huge defecits while squeezing the middle class and lower class of everything that they have got. He cuts the budget of entities that can create jobs-like NASA and education. At the same time, he gives unlimited funding to ventures that have no benefit to the American people-things like wars, zombie banks and Fannie Mae.
I hope that the Weiss Group will advise me when to head fo the hills, since I could never figure out the “wnen” on my own.
Bullion, bullion, bullion !!!
THERE IS TOO MUCH INTERVENTION GOING ON , IN TODAY’S ENVIRONMENT AND IT MOSTLY BENEFITS THE PEOPLE MAKING THE PLAYS, AND DAILY DECLARATIONS, THEREFORE WE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL IN OUR FEAR AND GREED STRATEGIES, SO WE NEED YOU MARTIN AND YOUR STAFF TO GUIDE US FOR BETTER DECISION MAKING IN THESE TURBULENT TIMES. I DID NOT FOLLOW YOUR ADVISE FULLY IN THE LAST MONTHS, MADE GREAT RETURNS IN THE LAST 4 MONTHS BUT UNFORTUNATELY DID NOT CASH OUT, BUT ONLY REDUCED POSITIONS IN THE STOCK MARKET , SO I AM BASICALLY WHERE I STARTED IN SEPTEMBER …. BETTER THAN IN MARCH BUT STILL 23% UNDER 2007 POSITIONS. WHERE TO GO FROM HERE IS THE GREAT PANACEA, HARDLY I CAN STAND ANOTHER 20-30% DECLINE IN THE MARKETS , MOST OF MY LIQUID INVESTMENTS ARE IN STOCKS, EMMERGING MARKETS , NO FUNDS BUT GOOD CO´S WITH GREAT BALANCE SHEETS AND DIVIDENS, STILL HAS NOT PROVIDED THE STABILITY IN THE SHORT TERM, SO WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST?
What we have here is institutional failure, which you have stubbornly refused to recognize! The banks and other very rich corporate entities have more say so in the congress than the people who have elected it and, guess what, their modest bribes have paid off handsomely. So here’s the bottom line. The health care insurance ceos and the big pharma ceos and the big banksters have sucked most of the buying power out of the public, which they have fleeced mercilessly. After years of draining wealth from the people who created it, the personal debt, bankruptcies, under water homes, unaffordable health care, uncompetitive practices and high risk games with other peoples money, the “free market” geniuses have ruined and frozen the economy.
Government spending is the only instrument left to keep it afloat (just barely) and without a massive redistribution of incomes it will remain so. Yes, the piggies, large and small, have fouled their own nests and everyone else’s also.
Don’t blame Obama, it is the ones who know but dare not speak who are the problem.
I will be in cash.The euro,pound and other currencies are in trouble.If rates go up,it will be bad for metals and the stock market.If you have cash,you will be making a great return,without taking risks.
I would love to know the answer to this one–and now I’m concerned about what’s left of my IRA. Will Washington snatch it up and put it in worthless bond? I’m afraid even cash is going to be worthless.
Is there any possible way that “WE THE PEOPLE “COULD TAKE OVER OUR GOVERNMENT?
Our elected officials are destroying us and they have only one concern – their re-election. The refuse to uphold the constitution even though they take an oath to do so when they are seated in their elected positions. They don’t listen to the people who sent them to Washington and they continuously lie to us and refuse to listen to the same people who sent them to Washington.
Too many people are dependent on the freebies and what they can get for nothing.
Government has made a third class of people because of this and I believe they are just another word for slaves. They listen and are influenced by corrupt politicians and are led astray like sheep. Hiftler did the same thing and the people didn’t recognize what he was doing to their country until it was too late.
Wake up Americans and I mean rich people, poor people, Democrats, Republicans,
Black or White people and people with religious beliefs.
Is there any possible way that “WE THE PEOPLE “COULD TAKE OVER OUR GOVERNMENT?
Our elected officials are destroying us and they have only one concern – their re-election. They refuse to uphold the constitution even though they take an oath to do so when they are seated in their elected positions. They don’t listen to the people who sent them to Washington and they continuously lie to us and refuse to listen to the same people who sent them to Washington.
Too many people are dependent on the freebies and what they can get for nothing.
Government has made a third class of people because of this and I believe they are just another word for slaves. They listen and are influenced by corrupt politicians and are led astray like sheep. Hitler did the same thing and the people didn’t recognize what he was doing to their country until it was too late.
Wake up Americans and I mean rich people, poor people, Democrats, Republicans,
Black or White people and people with religious beliefs.
! have been investing in the stock markets for many years,and can see that the markets are manipulated by big money to do exactly the opposite as the common investor believes it will do.When your local newspapers are filled with ads to buy gold and silver,and most analysts are telling you to buy gold and silver,that is usually a great time to short the gold and silver market.As soon as the market is driven lower,and every small investor has lost their butt,and noone is talking about gold and silver,will be a great time to buy.Just do exactly opposite what your common sense is telling you to do and you will do ok.
Anyone who has spent a few years to learn the mechanics of the markets should forget about investing these days… try to trade instead (strict money management is the key) and this a a good time to make money :)
Good luck all.
I believe with the Washington stupids running our economy, we must keep most of our portfolios in cash or cash equivalents. Bonds will be losers and stocks will be more volital than ever. This year may be the double dip year everyone has been worried about. International funds and cash money markets will be the only way to preserve our wealth. Good luck to all. geo cook
when interst rates rise in the usa do you see a flow onto rate hikes in australia, i asume we cannot avoid higer rates if the cenario plays out as you expect. should i limitg my borrowings.
since bond yields are going up later this year i am doing a refi. now on my second home. we have about 25% of our monies in gold and silver.i have some stoks in energy and basic food co.the rest of the investment monies are liquid now and waiting, waiting, waiting!
Martin
there is no doubt that this cricis is exactly what this present administration had in mind when that talked about “change” .no surprise .long term the commodities are the place for weath preservation-we are in for a long and scary economic and poloitcal ride.
keep some essentials on hand.
I wonder how relevent any portfolio or money will be if you run your projection scenarios out. I long for a magic wand that would endow me with 18 th century skills. The man that can hunt, skin, smoke, farm and disappear into public wilderness is the winner. What is any investment strategy but a plan to provide for you and yours?
I am a government scientist working on the plutonium de-inventory and production facility closure of WWII/cold war facilities. For those of us with retirement savings in 401K’s (or, like me, in the US Governments version, TSP) we only have choices of a selection of stock and bond funds. I put the maximum (15%) in my TSP. Anticipating an unrealistic real estate market plus dangerous levels of personal risk (low savings + high debt) I moved my ‘401k’ funds to gov. bonds 3+ years ago. Even though I got out of stocks before the crash, my savings have been degraded by the dollar devaluation.
What advise do you have for folks with 401k-type of retirement investments and limited choice of stock or bond funds?
Thank you,
Suzanne
It all depends on which currency goes down first, Euro, Yen, or Dollar.
Look what happened today, Euro down, treasuries up.
The dollar is bad, but in a crisis there is no other place for big money to run to from the Euro or Yen. If the Japanese kick out our military, they will be more vulnerable to China, and the Japanese GDP to debt ratio is worse than ours I think.
If we pull our military out of Europe and NATO because we are broke, what happens to the Euro? Russia is waiting in the wings for that eventuality.
Plus the Treasury can always make Federal paper tax free whenever they want, which would lower their interest rate and move lots of paper.
I have been hearing about a Treasury market collapse for 10 years and the yields keep dropping and the prices are rising. It’s all relative.
I seems that many people are looking for a safe place to invest, deposit, hide, or otherwise protect their assets. Let’s examine the alternives.
Metals (gold, silver,etc). Gold, though touted by many is possibly the best place to go. In the past when any metal has gone too high, the Government has released great quantities and devalued that metal. The Federal Government has the power to fix the price of metals, release great quantities, devalue the price, and even outlaw the possession of any precious metal, making it worth only what the Fed will recognize as the value, confiscating that metal and paying you what they want then taxing you on it.
Stocks, securities, etc. As the present depression continues, holders will sell at any price simply to have cash to buy basics such as food, clothing, and the like.
Cash. With the impending devaluation, your matress dollar will become mattress pennies.
Foreign stocks. Since the most of the rest of the world is in serious trouble too, their pps will be in the same boat as U.S. based stocks.
Foreign currencies. Mostof them being tied together as they are with each other and ours, they will devalued as well.
IRA’s and other retirement funds. Those have been invested in money markets, stocks, and banks. No protection there, and not enough cash anywhere to cover all the impending losses. FDIC will collapse.
Bare land and grow your own. Perhaps the best way to provide for yourself and your family, although with the projected crash, the criminal element will probably expand expotentially and kill you and take your crops.
You will not beable to depend on the proposed Socialist Governent for protection or help of any kind because there will be no money to support it.
How do we protect ourselves? Under the present National leadership, there is no way.
The only protection agency will be produced by Smith & Wesson or Colt. Just hang on and try to survive – literaly. But guns will be of little use because Obama’s Government has mandated that all new ammunition have an experation date after which the primers in the bullets will disintergrate rendering it worthless. Time to stock up on arrows; they don’t expire.
Yeah, those wealthy movie stars who sang, danced, and touted the Democrat party will soon be cursing their choice of parties as the Chinese army occupies our nation and enforces our domestic laws.
Those who have already lost everything will have the advantage; they are already there and know how to survive with nothing. They will be the leaders of the future.
Oh how stupid, MACRO ECONOMICS HOLDS SWAY FOR THE LARGEST AND SMALLEST ECONOMIES. THE GRANTORS OF CREDIT RE BOUT TO SAY, NO MORE. WE CAN’T BORROW OUR WAY OUT OF DEBT!!! THE U.S. CREDIT CARD IS ABOUT TO BE SHUT DOWN. WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE STREETS?? THERE SHALL BE NO LAW AND ORDER, IT WAS ABANDONED BY A WONTON ECONOMIC POLICY. iF NO ORDER THERE WILL BE ONLY DISORDER.
Martin, I think the gold price is being messed with to get the suckers to drop theirs just before the doo doo hits. If it drops under 500 I would buy like mad, and I still don’t know if that will save anyone. There is definitely something sinister going on here.
in the financial sector we have alot of great investors, like warren buffett.who say the market goes up the market goes down. I do not think he took into consideration the type of dollars the feds were printing. I think we all should be perpared for the worst . we are at a stage where we really don;t have a say in the matter, and it is getting out of hand. on cnn one fund manager was saying at the end of the day some concern was putting alot of money in the stocks i believe to keep the market up. but he did not know who. not a good idea to try and prop the stock market up. look at detroit with a 45% unemployment rate. there probably are more citys with that kind of rate but we are not hearing the truth of it.look for california to go belly up soon as there rate of value has always been to high. keep your chin up and your money in your pocket
Hello All
I used to be an honest financial planner in the Australian late 1990s. Now I have some good experience of organisation change, industry stabilisation and technology development and transfer.I suggest that the emerging long range prediction technology called “Backcasting” would help. This is the opposite to forecasting.
It involves setting a long term goal that is simple and hard measurable say reducing our impact on the earth to 10% of now by 2030.
Then return to the present time frame measure where we are and make reliable prediction in a short time say 6 months.
Stop there and carry out a risk analysis as though it was a journey. I use the Occ Health and safety Hazard analysis process.
Include the results of the risks in your measures.
Then predict forward another leg and repeat the risk analysis, adjust your likely measures.
Repeat these steps until you reach your final year and hopefully the final target.
Make a project plan of all these wobbly steps and start to manage the project.
Academics experienced in long term predictions believe this process can work.
When I try to visualise the shape of the prediction legs I expect it to occupy a spiral in tube that is three dimensions plus time.
I am trying to use these ideas as group planning into uncertainty for climate change projects.
Hope this helps
David Flynn
BSc Technology Metallurgy MBA
I bought June put options for all the stocks I own in my retirement account (plus my wifes).KMP,KO,MCD,EPD,BPL VNR, NRGY,AAPL plus a few others. This was a cost of $10,000.00, pretty cheap insurance after today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh yea, by the way I believe God has always liked gold and silver.
Iam investing in a chain drive rear tine roto tiller…..
Stay invested in oil and precious metals.
I have thought of a fundamental disconnect from reality: 1. Who is the biggest borrower in the world? US government, right? 2. Who sets the interest rate? Same guys. What gives????? WR
Martin,
I’m not sure about your categories of “bonds”. What about corporate bonds? And you say “short term” treasuries–how short? Seems like this is a turning point, and I’d like to know what to do, and how to advise my son. Thank you.
I was looking at Pamela Yellen’s Insurance program but backed away because I believe
that mutual and stock insurance companies can get hurt holding gov-bonds and etc. i guess I will stay in cash as Conquer the crash suggest.
I would look into an inverse ETF such as DOG after today’s action. We now have the issue with Greece’s sovereign debt and now Spain and Portugal ? What else do we not know ? This market is just difficult to figure out frankly…
While every one is trying to understand what to do to protect our families, it appears that ideas are all over the board. If things become as bad as my grandfather describes the Great Depression, I question what will be the value of even having gold, precious metals or cash? I remember as a youngster when he would say, “their will be a time when man will have a fist full of dollars and their is not even a loaf of bread available in the market place to purchase!” A handful of cash and still hungry! As a veterinarian, I am hoping my skills will be useful to maintain the health of small, rural livestock for an immediate local food supply. But, where and how will I be able to purchase antibiotics and other meds and supplies, if the large pharmacuetical companies are not able to do business? Instead of gold, maybe I should be stockpiling med supplies that could even be used for humans should dire situations dictate? Maybe the old herbal remedy books of a century ago will become a valuable resource once again. (That’s one cycle I have not seen discussed in your blog/forum). A skill to barter may be a most possible benefit should we revert back to a crude basic level of society. I don’t see how this system will work in the large cities. Have a trade valuable for bartar with others of like mind in your “micro” economy or area of residence. Rural agrarian communities may be a way of survival. Am I nuts? Please fill free to candidly reply. Thanks Martin for both your wisdom and this forums’ collective insight!
what i wonder , is why has not anyone tackled the gold theft, 400 oz bars are now in ??? tunsten carbide is what $10 a lb.
they can’t keep holding down this truth for much longer and then what???
When the liberals in Washington can’t give a raise to senior citizens you know it is bad. Obama is in over his head. He is a good time leader–like so many that run. Interestingly though, the Republic can still be saved, but the clock is ticking without much time left. It will take fiscal discipline, an iron will and much pain and suffering. The alternative is worse.
THERE IS NO POINT TO BLAME OBAMA ADMINISTARATION……PEOPLE HERE THINK THEY ARE MORE KNOWLEDGABLE THAN PAUL WALKER AND PARTY…….BE SENSIBLE oBAMA HAS INHERITED THIS MESS BY BUSH AND REPLUBLICAN PARTY WHO HAS ALWAYS REFUSED TO PUT SOME RESTARIN FOR THE 8 YEARS WE HAD BUSH ADMINISTRATION IN POWER………..YES DEFICITE IS TOO BOG AND SCARRY……..BUT MOST OF DEFICITE HE HAS INHERITED……..YES TO AVOID THE CATSTROPHY WHICH WAS EMMINENT……HE HAS ADDED SOME MORE DEFICITE AN..D TO REDUCE THE DEFICITE THERE IS A PROPOSAL TO CREATE THE BI PARTISAN MISSION…..REPUBLICAN WHO PROFESS THE SAME IDEA BUT WHEN VOTIBG CAME THEY VOTED AGAINST……THIS ALL SHOWS THEY ARE BENT UP ON RUINING THE COUNTRY FOR THEIR POLITICAL gAIN
Hey, John Q:
Be wise. Do the same thing skilled CEO’s do in bad times. Act quickly, without delay; turn your attention from your income statement to your balance sheet–trim & cut costs everywhere; reduce expenses, convert inventories to cash; and no new spending. He does everything possible to raise and preserve cash, and avoid losses. His primary goal is to survive the downturn; to be still standing when the economic storm clouds finally clear, and to have investable cash when it does. His Board of Directors will want to know that he has acted prudently to preserve assets, and they will want assurance that he will shun risky actions that could incur possible losses.
The rationale is that there are both good and bad economic seasons. In good seasons, he doesn’t worry so much about the balance sheet, that is preserving assets, he concentrates instead on the income statement, making money when there is money to be made. But when times are bad, he has learned to hunker down into a survival mode. He resists foolish notions that he can force downward trends to reverse themselves. He has learned that foolishly bucking trends can quickly destroy the cow. So, he wisely, patiently waits, guarding precious assets until better times return. He has discovered from experience that sometimes just surviving can be a big win.
Admittedly, real stock market pros can sometimes make money in bad markets, but you John Q, are not one of them. Beware of the solicitors ! They don’t give a hoot how hard you’ve worked for what you have, and will leave you with losses, without ever even saying, “I’m sorry”. Present company included.
Instead, be wise. Hunker down. I guarantee you, many of the world’s richest investors wish they had two years ago. Your goal, like the skilled CEO, should be to avoid losses right now so you can survive to play again when good times return, having something to invest.
If you have acted unwisely by taking on too much debt and are suffering for it, then learn from it, and don’t make the same mistake again, because I assure you this will not be the last bad season, and life is better without it.
The when is the information I was hoping to get from you. This is why I subscribe to your publication.
Martin,
Some months ago you put one million dollars into inverse ETFs or were planning to do this. What has happened with your investment? Did you actually buy the inverse ETFs or have you held back waiting for the plunge in the market to begin buying them? If you waited, is the time ripe now for the purchase of inverse ETFs?
Mitch
Maetin, To be honest I don’t know. YOU TELL ME
MARTIN, I DON’T KNOW. I WISH I DID I’AM SCARED.
Personally I don’t think you can count on anything with our government in control right now. I am in Gold, Cash and other currency. Stocks are way to scary right now. Unless our government STOPS SPENDING all of our grandchildrens money, nothing is going to get better. I am not a doom and gloomer, but this administration is, OMGosh soooo out of control. If I had my way, I would FIRE, yes FIRE ALL OF THE GOVERNMENT and start over when we need them. Right now what we need is JOBS, independent people creating businesses, NOT Government jobs. OK, I feel better now.
Thank you all for listening.
hello, i think that it is a time to put money to work. i’m waiting for your warning e-letter.
xiaojie
I don’t know if I’m the only one that notices this but it seems every time Barak Obama makes a speech (especially something on the economy) the next day the stock market takes a tumble. So I guess when you hear he’s going to be speaking, sell your stock and buy it back after the speech!
Being a rank amateur investor at best, I don’t really know how to invest in such a situation, I have committed to precious metals, with long term collapse in the dollar all but certain. I’m sure there must be something that can turn a bond loss into a portfolio gain, but being the rank amateur I am, I have no idea how to take advantage of the current situation in the bond market. I guess with a down grade on the U.S. credit rating, I would expect the dollar to take a big hit and gold to take off and rise, thus mining stocks would give you leveraged gains, would they not? I am 50% into physical metals and 5% mining stocks, with 45% in cash waiting for the next opportunity. My 50% in physical was purchased between Nov 1st 08 and Jan 31st 09, so I’m not letting go of my long term insurance policy. But I am looking forward to the next high probability trade, which appears to me to be mining stocks after this pull back in metals, we just had a huge down day and actually, the bottom may be near, in the metals market, although gold seems to be more attractive than silver right now, but I feel when gold exceeds $1500.0 an ounce, silver may come back strong and actually give you a higher percentage return than gold after those price points? I think if you picked the right currency, you could benefit as well, but what currency would be a safe haven after the collapse of the dollar? Well, I believe that the Australian dollar may be a good bet, But being a amateur I wouldn’t put a lot of my money there, at least not until I watched the markets perform for awhile. China? No, with the amount of U.S. debt china holds, I would think their currency would feel aftershocks of a U.S. bond collapse? I have traded commodity’s since 1981, and have felt the pain of the collapse of the metal markets. I watched the rise of metals through the late 70’s and into the 80’s and I have watched the metals fall from 1981 through 1999, now it is the metals who will be boss for years to come in my opinion. But I am open minded and patient, so if someone can make a logical case for another investment, I’m all ears, I may be a hard sell, but I am all ears?
For a little back ground, I have owned my own construction business since 1987 through 2008, and never invested in stocks during that time, I have waited for the return of metals, on 9-11-01 the day the twin towers fell, That afternoon I bought 100 ounces of gold, I have been in metals ever since, and I feel the first leg up was completed in 2008. when we had the major correction, then I loaded up my truck again, Now I feel the second leg is upon us and the next leg up will be much greater than the first leg we experienced, after that we will see another major correction, and then the third and final leg will complete the cycle, at even higher highs than most will ever expect. I am very curious to hear your response to my assumptions? I am also curious to see what other investments you may reccomend? I appreciate the oppurtunity to contribute to your blog.
HI:IS SHORT A*A*A*bond and municipal bond The wayto go in this invirament.
Hi Martin,
Would you recommend that I keep or get rid of the TIPS I own with a 5 year maturity?
Thanks
The fed and shareholder banksters will do whatever they deem in their best interest to continue to rake up the financial wealth of the globe.
It is likely that the Fed will quantitative ease in silent ways to keep the bubble going. There will come a reckoning day, but given the American public unemployment rate is probably 20%+ versus the reported 10%, it is likely that the political will will be there to keep interest rates LOW no matter what. This will unassumely, have the effect of eliminating demand for long term bonds in the U.S., so it will have to be funded somehow. Likely we will see a market crash and run of money to T-Bills.
Don’t just gripe about blackhead, a lot of this B.S got started when BuSh was in the white house. And his elder’s was known for making money helping our enemy, while we were fighting them. And he, [G Bush] even his dad, got a war started when they got into the white house. I am almost willing to bet that he is making a profit, while the people are putting ALL the money out for HIS war. And he cut the taxes for the RICH, would’nt you, if you were making a good profit.
Martin, I tend to my aging mothers financial matters. Part of her portfolio includes about $300K of municipal and corporate bonds paying 4.5% to 6.5% with maturities out 8 to 23 years. These investments provide for her income in addition to social security. These bonds are all rated AA+ or higher and have current values very near par. If interest rates do go up as you suggest, do you expect AA+ rated bonds to default? I have no plans to cash in these bonds, but is there significant risk that the municipal or corporate bonds might go the way of Lehman?
i think the US dollar will come down very disorderly once the unwind of the carry-trade is done because it started at last May(2009).I will buy some gold if it come down to around $1000 or $990 and SH ETF proshare now
How would a bond crash affect other investments? Which ones? What would happen to the dollar?
I have suspected such and have kept clear of US bonds, but do have considerable Aussie ones AND OTHERS.
Hi Martin,
In order to “time” the capital markets, the ONLY way to do this is to have a thorough understanding of Economic/Financial Fundamentals, Economic/Financial Technicals and Economic/Financial Cycles that go back literally hundreds of years. I use your company’s services, BOTH on the analyst/research side (Uncommon Wisdom/Money & Markets) and the regulated capital side (Weiss Capital Management) as well as several sharp technical analysts such as Frank Barbera and Bob McHugh etc..etc that cover the 3 areas above. Just like weather forecasting, many millions of people look for the weather forecast, but very,very,very few people know HOW to forecast the weather. The same with the Capital/Financial Markets and Economy. You must do your homework and like doing it as a perpetual hobby. My analysis is CLEARLY telling me we are rhyming somewhere between the Great Depression and the Lost 2 Decades of Japan. Now, actually, the Credit/Derivative bubble of the last 18 years is actually WAY worse than the Depression based on Private and Public Debt creation. With either scenario, Treasuries, Gold and Shorting the Market were the places to be. Just like what your father Irving did back during the Great Depression, he shorted the market based on his knowledge and wisdom of the markets. So, once again, Long/Short Term US Treasuries, Precious Metals, Shorting the Market and Long US Dollar are places to be as you can see from the last 2-3 months. I suspect we are now entering a WAVE C down in Elliot Wave/Cycle Theory…similar to the decline that started in 1930, just after the bear market rally finished. This is a very similar analog. If we follow the Japan route, once again, JGBs have done extremely well compared to the Japan Stock Market over the last 20 years. The only fly in the ointment is what if, as you say, the Bond Rating Agencies downgrade the US Debt. I still believe since we are the worlds reserve currency and have the largest printing press, the US Long Treasuries would be the last bond asset to collapse compared to every other bond class is the world (except Short Term Treasuries) . Should US Long Treasuries and the Bond Market collapse, I would expect to see interest rates head up and the bonds fall. If the rates start up and break my resistance levels, I will quickly assess the situation and most likely shift back to mostly short term bonds and precious metals. As of November, I am invested 25% in Long Term Treasuries and 60% in Short Term Treasuries 10% in CORE Gold and Silver ( I sold my core and current Gold & Silver Stocks and shifted to Treasuries in December at Peak) and Cash. So, I am doing very well this year as the Stock market falls almost on schedule, INCLUDING commodities at this time. So, we are in the deflation trade right now as the US Dollar carry trade unwinds and I am playing it very strong right now. Once this trade is over and we head back to inflation (at least 6 months away and maybe much longer than that) THEN, I will acquire Precious Metals to my portfolio. If we rhyme the Great Depression or Japan, we will see the equity markets get clobbered over the next several years..
I lost at least a million by getting angry and staying out of the market right after the 80’s meltdown until 2002. Then I got back in. I keep enough cash for contingencies but stay mostly “invested”. I invest about 80% and trade some of the rest on advice. I made a little with inverse ETF’s on the way down a year ago, but found timing difficult. And, anyway the market is a fool or at least run by fools–A really good company isn’t worth any less just because five days from now somebody won’t pay as much for it. Sure, it’s nice to make money by smart electronic entries, having produced nothing in the process, but seems rather useless to mankind. On what to do now, I’ll just hang with gold coins, and oil, lithium, nickel, silver. wind, nanotech, and gold stocks, and let the “chips” fall where they may. Also, I wish I knew the best inverse ETF to buy.
Good evening, Martin.
I read your artical, “Washington screws it up again” and I agree with every thing you say, except for the title. Washington doesn’t and never has screwed up anything when it comes to milking the money out of us. I hear this time and time again, “that they are
incompentant.” They’re highly intellegent and are masters at extracting our wealth from
us. Give the devils their due. Are you trying to fool us or yourself with that opening
statement? The politicians have been hiding behind the incompentancy ruse for decades. To shrug-off their evil doings as blunders is not in keeping of the common
good of your readers. Expose them for what they really are. SUPER RICH AND POWERFUL, ILLUMINATI SCUM.
Have a pleasent evening.
Robert Wilson.
Since reading “The Ultimate Deppression Survival Guide” last April I have moved all of our cash to a Frost Bank Savings Account as per your suggestion, I am tired of earning only .60% on such a sum, but I am still fearful to move it anywhere. My husband and I have always counted on real estate (rental properties) as investments, luckily we sold most of our properties before 2007,but presently there seems to be some bargains available in rental properties now in the DFW area and it seems like we might be wise to move some of our cash back into these type of investments. Is it still to soon to look at property? Everything else scares or confuses me.
Stay in FDIC CD’s for safety or Municipals…that is it!
I find it interesting that statements come out of Washington and China at about the same time that will without a question cause the markets to tank. Anyone for going short the day before the statements are made? And, if thats not enough, well, lets say we made an error and have to report an additional 800,000 jobs were lost? If the other statements don’t work, this one will for sure. Have to love these guys! In my opinion, there is no safe place. Better trust in God, because you sure can’t trust the people who are running the world’s economies and financial markets.
WHEN the bond bubble bursts, higher long term rates will result, an opportunity to buy the higher rates. Many stocks will be “on sale” a time to cherry pick the most debt-free players. Mgte rates will rise, freezing out some more marginal potential buyers.
Debt defaults will accelerate especially for the over-levered, individuals as well as commercial entities. NO amt of ‘new’ stimulis can help offset. Cash & foreign equities are your best bets. Gold & commodities may well be in flux. US DEBT cannot be reduced until we really confront what we intend to provide to us boomers on the cusp of retirement: future social security (think 75%), medicare, medicaid, senior unfunded scripts (think repeal here). HARD Choices, or NO country, make up your mind!!
I really do not understand why precious metals and oil are going down. I would think they would hold value better than US dollars.
I am selling more stock, hoping I can buy back in, in three weeks, at a lower price. I will be reducing daily spending.
Where did we get these boys in Congress? They are hapless, hopeless, and useless.
They sat there through the last eight year’s of horror show while we went to war among the crazies. They listened to all the speeches on deregulation and Clinton was crazy enough to do it. Roosevelt passed the Glass Steagle Act for such as these. They couldn’t find any weapons of mass destruction, but that didn’t deter them from spending us into oblivion in a feckless war on terror. And now we have all these charming bankers, ex-bankers, would-be bankers deciding on our future and helping us to help them to shore themselves up. Instead of bonuses could we give them coal in their stockings? And maybe they could spend some time in the stocks we set up on Wall St.? How about taking away their wealth, and giving it to the U.S. taxpayer? I think they should get a nominal allowance, not bonuses, and in prison. Couldn’t we do an essay on the one worlders…and expose all the devils who sent our jobs abroad so that we could buy everything cheaply. Who are these morons?
They forgot that we can’t buy anything if we are not working.
Debt is debt; whether corportate junk bonds or government treasuries. Phase one is
to create the debt..job well done. Phase two is to suppress the result of this money supply expansion. The wage and price controls will immediately follow. (done by declaring a national emergency). Now this person recalls the winners after the last
wage and price control emergency; do you?
“Batten hatches fore and aft”!
We need a National Day of Prayer.
This situation is out of our hands, We are marching too the tune of chaos.
Neil Barofsky, the Special Inspector General of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, today accused Obama and the Fed of trying to create anew Housing Bubble. What do you say to this and how can we stop them from doing this?
Martin
I have seventy percent of my money in insurance at seven persent interest. Twenty
persent in foreign bonds. Eight persent in foreign stocks. Two persent in metals
and oil. I have some cash for a long setback. I lost money and lived threw the twenty
nine and thirtys. That was hard to live with and alot of people took their lives. We
had nineteen percent unemployment yet in 1939. Anyone can see that we have a
longer outlook this time. I don’t trust the goverment so i sold my house and i live
now in a apartment it is cheaper liveing.
I don’t qualify for your investment program because of limited rescources. I don’t really know which way to turn, except to get out any U.S. equities, once & for all. Large portion is in money markets, but that doesn’t even make enough to pay Minimum Required Distr..That money needs to be somewhere else, just to make MRD’s. I have some in Precious Metals fund, but feel like I need to spread risk. Asian Electronics? Asian Mining? Asian Education?
The dollar is finished
I sold my last 5 stocks.I am now planing a gold and silver IRA.This so call president from Kenya don’t even know how to put his han over his heart for the anthem.
I agree what can one do when you have your retirement rapt up in a 401k and you have made adjustments in your investments consisting of stock bonds and foreign stock markets and no short term reserves iv seen my savings take a dive and then sky rocket to double my in vestment but I am stomp t on what to do next.
A lot of very intelligent comments about an unanswerable topic. Those individuals in government and banking who have brought about our economic crisis have all protected themselves financially having devised the game plan and knowing what is to happen and when. That leaves the rest of us to ponder our options and to try to sort fact from fiction. Our fiat money and paper investments would appear to be most in jeopardy of collapse which really leaves only physical precious metals. Even if PM values decline it can’t be any worse than losing the value of the dollars we hold which certainly appears to be the greater certainty. Either way is risky but at least with physical PMs there is something with which to barter if it should come to that. PMs are my insurance policy to withstand the continuing financial destruction government and banking hand-in-hand impose on this country.
What I see is that we have come to the actual battle of which preparation was started a long time ago by Progressives to take over this country, kill its creativity and make it socialist. These guys hate the Constitution, hate the fact that anyone owns anything and can’t stand the idea of anyone actually keeping the wealth they earn and not spreading it around to the non-producing people who think someone owes them a living and sit on their ass. Progressives think they are Robin Hoods but in fact they are suppressive to mankind. Someone who wants something for nothing is a criminal. These people were created by welfare. Paying them not to create and basically telling them that their creativity was not wanted is how criminals are created. This administration promised to pay their house and car payments and put gas in their cars. That’s what woke them up from the dead and got Obama elected.
So the Progressives got in power and are making a mess of everything at our peril; That occurred as a result of over taxation of businesses to support welfare and by unions . So they were ruined and their possibilty for work was crushed.
The producers are being penalized and wiped out. The suppressives are being rewarded. That is backwards.
These Progressives aren’t new to this country and have stayed hidden very well. I actually have a hunch that they are the descendants of the Tories who were here in this country when we were fighting for our freedom from England, long ago a Progressive country, and they fought on the side of the enemy; were treasoness to this Country and the Constitution. These Liberals have had a very long term plan to destroy the Constitution and the wealthy and make this Country socialistic. They infiltrated the legal system by using case law instead of the laws on the books so that gradual changes could be introduced and forward the Progressives agenda. That is why foreign attackers of this nation have to have legal counsel provided to them at our cost rather than getting a military trial; insane!
They got into the school system by introducing the subject of Psychology and Psychiatry into the schools and using their junk science to adjudicate children to be in need of psyciatric drugs, all for drug company profits. I can tell you that their diagnostic manual containing their “mental diseases” is a complete fraud. Every disease in that manual has no scientific background whatsoever. Those diseases were all put in that manual by a show of hands at the psychiatric conventions. What shall we call it and what drug should we prescribe were answered by a vote, not scientifically. That manual was only created so that they could bill insurance companies for the drugs. Those drugs actually cause kids to go crazy and they become shooters at our public schools. Psychiatry has caused our schools to become houses of terror for our kids and that is a hainess crime. The drugs cause kids to commit suicide because they can’t get off of them. Their parents have bought into the lies and make their kids take the drugs. The kids creativity has been deadened and they can’t get away from it. Don’t you think that if a chemical imbalance was the reason for learning problems that it would be a NATURAL chemical that would fix it, NOT DRUGS BASED ON COCAINE! A misunderstood word is more likely to be the real reason for study problems. A lot of people in this country have bought into using drugs to handle their lives rather than learning to confront their problems and handling them. This makes them zombies who can be told what to do by the psychs and furthers the Progressive agenda. This administration is going to fund billions of dollars for psychiatry to create mandatory drug screening for every man, woman and child in this country through the Abama Health Care Bill. Psychiatry is saying that everyone is crazy and needs drugs. They have diseases like the Math Syndrone, Coffee Syndrone, etc. These are common everyday problems that people can handle themselves or with their parents or clergy, not mental diseases. Congress has bought it because mental health is an unconfrontabe subject.
I think some of them might be on psych drugs themselves. This is all very insane.
We all seem to be fighting symtoms rather than the real cause of this craziness.
Didn’t the founding fathers cover this possible agenda and give us a way to get rid of a Speaker of the House and a Senate majority leader and a President before they screw up the whole country? The Democrats are distancing themselves as they should from Pelosi and Reed so now might be a good time to get Polosi off her post as Speaker and Harry Reed off his post as Senate Majority leader so that Obama and his henchmen staff can be impeached quickly. Then get rid of his cronies by replacing them with good citizens not Goldman Sach cronies and then clean out all the old cronies in the House and Senate and fill the whole thing with new blood, not doing business in the old way, but one Bill at a time with no riders on it. no back room deals, no payoffs, just making decisions based on the greatest good for the greatest number of citizens or the least harm for the least number of citizens. Then we abolish the IRS and income tax and establish terrifs to protect our manufactureres. Make unions illegal, I bet all the businesses in China would come back in a minute and we would have jobs galore. Get rid of the debt by living within our means with a minimum government and let the states provide the programs they want, defaulting on our phony fiat debts worldwide.
We have been lent money in our own phony fiat dollars. Go back to the gold standard, create a new dollar and call it something else. Shut down the Federal Reserve Bank and have nothing to do with a World Bank and the IMF and quit giving away billions as foreign aid to other countries. Bolster our Armys. We’ll be the wealthiest country in the world with plenty of jobs for everyone, super technologies and products to sell worldwide and families living the American dream.
Jerry Carll
During slow times such as these, I start taking courses again. I don’t have time to be in the market watching every move, but an able to see the writing on the wall. Being an insurance broker, I like fixed rate annuities from non-profit ins. cos., i.e. smarter intermediate fraternals that can manage their portfolios of corporate bonds. Also, I like some of the New York State Insurance Department approved EIAs or equity indexed annuities – where i can buy the S&P 500 index – which will outperform 70% of the funds on the street, I’m told. Both vehicles are positively appreciating and you do give up some of the upside potential with the non-security EIA approach. That’s 40-50% of total. The remainder is invested in what produces cash flows with liquidity and a little silver with 3 months of food in the basement. :-) You can purchase the annuities from your insurance broker. I suggest purchasing study materials from A D Banker, especially the course on annuities before using the vehicles – you must know the guarantees and the ins and outs. Not for everyone, but it’s a start. 10 year or longer investment position. I would also recommend courses from the American College as a refresher especially in taxes…and diversify broadly. Good fortune and God Bless.
Since politics has always trumped sound economics, it only makes sense to go to cash and earn next to nothing as we see how the next debacles play out.
There are so many threats to an individual’s financial well being it’s impossible to protect against them all simultaneously.
Perhaps the most ironic humor of all is the stock phrase used by our elected and appointed officials: “the federal government will pay for” fill in the blank. We, the weary taxpayers, cannot hope to compete with the corpulent, influential special interests omnipresent in the public and big-company private sectors.
We can’t believe the public pronouncements from any source, which have been spun more creatively than cotton candy, nor the ‘official’ statistics offered up by those with axes to grind, including the feds, who don’t want interest rates to rise so they must pay more to borrow against whatever is left of our future.
Should the huge deficits suddenly vanish, such drastic action would place our economy in an even further tailspin than its current trajectory. Picture a long-time crack cocaine addict suddenly stopping the drugs and imagine the fallout.
Long range we are doomed after the pathetic public policies of the last decade.
This President should be impeached.
Sell the house, pack the bags and move to Australia. Maybe the Amish are on to something.
On the basis of the “Trade of The Decade” recommendation, sell Treasuries, I bought TBT, a fund shorting Treasuries. Isn’t this in line with your comments?
Well it’s scary as heck
.My wife refuses to talk about it.We have a nice amount of cash(less what is owed to Obama the great wastrel) and intend to buy some gold and silver on the next significant correction.I’am backing out of stocks. thank you for all the help. RI
I would say it’s important to remain diversified, flexible, and up-to-date with market trends, economic policy, and changing global and domestic areas of profitabilty.
I just read this week that the government has passed a law that Money Market funds can now refuse to honor a request to withdraw money if they feel the fund is in jeopardy of being unable to meet the requests. As you previously mentioned the only secure place at this time would be short term treasuries until some of this panic subsides. If the short term treasury defaults it won’t matter where your funds are deposited the banking system will collapse.
Hello Martin,
You have asked some real thought provoking questions this week! Right now I believe in holding sliver & gold, and BRIC equities though as pointed out by others these investments will be affected by the entire global economy. Will hold only US stocks which are global players such as MCD. Will hold short-term (<2 years) high grade corporate bonds. The question is, will this just be temporary bumpy ride for a bit, or is it time to get out of all equities? As I write the Japanese market has tanked ~3%. Would be a good time to short the Euro, SPY, and consider shorting long-term treasury ETFs. To recover some short-term loss, I have considered using covered calls for the gold ETF. Thanks for asking
I have no idea how to invest anymore. Zacks has made a couple thousand on me but my Investment value with Zacks has gone down. When I buy a stock on scottrade I immediately lose 25 to 50 percent of my investment. The stock market is a suckers bet business has the laws in their favor in 2000 I bought AT&T at around $60, MCI at around $30 and TYCO at $28 they were solid companies, they went belly up and the management split the stock up between themselves and had another IPO to suck in more Investors to drain. The bailout wasn’t for banks it was for greedy brokerage houses in bed with the crooks in Washington known as our government that has no regulation. I’m fed up with the Crooks at the Brokerage houses, the crooks in Washington and OBAMA in general he is the worlds greatest liar, he is a community organizer not a president.The banks are still going belly up. The brokerage houses are supposed to loan money to business with a plan to produce a useful product not to manipulate the market and steal the peoples SS pensions, IRAs and 401Ks.
Edward Leith,
Eolia Missouri.
YOU DONT WAIT—-RUN FOR THE EXITS—–NOW!!!
Well Martin lately you certainly have lot of questions. I’d like to hear some answers. But, to your question of what do you do facing a disaster when you don’t know when. My best shot is to watch market fundamentals and technical charts daily. Read business news sources around the world on the web. Look closely daily at the trends in major indexes and ETFs, make your best guess and then, when your knees start to shake, go to cash, short term treasuries, inflation protected funds and government TIPS and gold and sit out the holocaust taking great care not to come back to bonds or equities too soon.
Now, I know that some experts know how to make money in a blizzard. But, I also know I’m not one of them. So, my triumph will have to come by simply…PRESERVING CAPITAL!
Mr. Weiss,
I have read many of your articles along with others, and thus far you have made the most sense………..am totally invested in gold with very little cash (enough to last me a year). I would appreciate to hear what you think of the position I am taking now.
Thank you for your concern for all.
Vera
When will the bond market explode? Soon! The more important question is: When will it return to “normal”? If you define “normal” as the way it was 10 to 20 years ago, the answer is “never”.
I think the US economy will become very much like Argentina and Mexico. It will be a be a pleasant enough place to live but we will not be one of the leading nations of the world.
Really ambitious people will migrate to the far east and India where the action is. After all, we are a nation of immigrants. Go west young man!
Washington and the rest of the world just can’t get it right and with a very high level of arrogance and ecomonic incompetence in DC it seems the next big leg down is on it’s way. Increasing the deficit, the debt, and unemployment out of sight (it seems Washington lost track of 1,000,000 unemployed since March’09).
I am think about solid companies like, PG, JNJ, CL, PEP, RAI, GIS, WTR, etc as companies to invest in for dividends and covered calls to generate income.
Do you agree and what else should I be investing in?
Regards,
Michael
Our whole monetary system is a giant Madoff ponzi scheme. The banks create money by depositing your signed promissory note into their bank and create money out of thin air. Each and every loan is inflationary. In order to keep the insanity going they must create more debt to create more money to pay the interest on all the loans. The bubble continues to expand until it blows. We are in the terminal stage of our currency. The Federal Reserve and banks are responsible for the plundering of this once great country. Thomas Jefferson said that a central bank is more dangerous than a standing army. A wise man indeed. Hunker down and buy as much real hard currency as you can afford. We are about to enter into deep dark times. END THE FED!!!!
tHE PNLY WAY I SEE FOR US TO SURVIVE THIS MELTDOWN IS TO BE SURE NO ONE GETS RE ELECTED PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME GOOD PEOPLE IN CONGRESS BUT NO GUTS TO TAKE ON THE PROBLEMS AND STAND UP FOR WHAT IS GOOD FOR THR U S A RATHER THAN WHAT CAN I DO TO GET RE ELECTED.TO HELL WITH PARTY ITS TIME TO SEE IF WE CAN SURVIVE IF THE NEWBIES DONT PUT THEMSELVES ON SS THE SAME AS WE ARE LET THEM KNOW THEY WILL BE A ONE TERM JOCKY AND THE LIMIT WILL BE TWO TERMS AS IS THE PRESIDENT. LETS TAKE THIS COUNTRY BACK FROM THE LIBERALS THAT ARE TREATING ILLEGALS BETTER THAN WE VETRANS THAT KEPT THEM FROM HAVING TO SPEAK GERMAN OR JAPANESE. TIME IS RUNNING OUT, I JUST PAST THE 90 MARK AND WONT BE HERE TO SEE THE DOWNFALL BUT P;EASE DONT LET IT HAPPEN.
Actually, I’ve been pulling back from my stock positions ever since the stock market neared 9000. So, for several months, on a periodic basis I’ve been shifting into very short term, highly rated bond funds. Over the past couple of weeks, ever since Obama launched his new war on banks, I’ve been shifting more stock funds into funds with the highest level of treasury bills I can find, that is, if that specific fund family has such a fund. Some of them don’t. The bottom line is, equities are scary right now.
All of our portfolio is in Canada. All in RRSP eligible investments. The bad news is that although we have moved to silver in the last year or two and before the end of the year put a lot in cash, still, equities are a big portion of my husbands RRSP portfolio.
Our advisor thinks as much in cash as possible, hence our move. Trouble is, when the Dow heads south , so does the TSX.
I see many heading to Canada to invest for safety. The banks are strong and steady and not a lot of exposure in ‘iffy’ investments. Yet, all markets are drawn down by what happens in the US especially Canada.
We are worried about it and simply do not know what to do. It is very much a ‘zig-zag’ game and most of the time one is left with the feeling that we have ‘zigged’ when we should have ‘zagged’ and many financial advisors seem no wiser either.
My take on the Fall of 2008 market meltdown that TARP averted was caused by outside forces ( read Soros, et al) knocking the stool out from under an already shaky market and delighting in doing so because in ensured the ‘right candidate’ walked into the White House. After a year we see what a disaster that is, financial and otherwise.
Fighting to put the US ship of state to rights is a long,hard battle and no guarantee of success shines through on the horizon. Surely we can regain Congress and the Senate in 2010 but I simply do not think we have the kind of time required until the next presidential election before disaster strikes, in whatever form it takes. I came here looking for answers as to what kind of zigging we must do before the zag!
Hasving cahed in on real estate holdings to be safe I invested heavily in municipal bonds. My stratigy was safety. If I sold the bands at a loss for cash I would be subject to loss if the banks fail. Do you think the government would allow massive failures in munis and which ones?
Who would want gold or silver? It is worthless in an economy where millions are savaging for food and water. Anyone having gold better have an army to protect your investments from the millions of impoverish folks seeking just to stay alive. Have you looked at Mexico lately it is a fail state turned into a police state where no one dare were jewelery or flashy blink, blink for fear of retribution. The fastest growing industry is extortion, kidnapping, drugs, and robbery. The middle class is jumping ship. Guess who’s next. The Federal Reserve is worthless for printing fiat money with no value. Our banks and financial institutions are bankrupted and have failed to lend money simply because they have none. Our trillion dollar deficit can’t be paid again because there is no financial possibility of it ever happening. Our military budget keeps expanding to support wars for basic energy which is oil and again it is very limited and the world has reached a stage where the major oil fields have reached bottomed. There is no exploration being conducted because there needs none be for empty pockets of water only. We have over consumed and raped foreign nations never to replenished their forest, fishing or other natural minerals. A world of ever increasing population growth is now in deep decline. Our best investment is to restructure our monetary system and bunker down for the inevitable of food crisis, riots, and overall break down of our society. Have you ever wonder what our world leaders meant by a New World Order, or Obama’s false rhetoric of “change” only to reinforce Bush’s policies. Greece, Spain, Iceland, economies disintegrating before our eyes. Latin America a basket case in the works. Are you interested in purchasing land, property, gold, etc. I ask you why? I would liquidate my holding and travel now there is no tomorrow.
I feel that go’s to be relatively safe.
Want to clean up in 2010 and beyond? Sell short the ZB (30 Year bond futures). It may be a rough ride in the short term, but the end result is as sure as the 2000 tech bust or the 2007 housing and mortgage bust.
The crystal ball on timing is in the hands of Chinese, Greece, England, Japan, Euro, just to name the key stakeholders, vs. the US dollar. I like dominoes when it is a game of chance and all are able to draw a winning hand and the stakes are finite. But in World economic GDP profiles the game is uncertain as one could fail then another than another. The US rebuilt vertually every country and gave them ‘a second chance’. Who’s there for the US.
The present administration is playing a game of chicken, just wait for the huge tariffs to gridlock the world economy if it survives the bond, real estate, debt, etc. melt down first.
I asked you to elaborate on how to preserve wealth looking back at the failures and the prevailing conditions in Brazil in the 1970’s, the Japaneese in the 1980’s and the Russians in the 1990’s to build some historical fundamental conclusion that would be helpful in determining the trigger of the end game; if it is high inflation or reestablishing the value of the dollar. Even gold will not hold it’s value in this administration as I look for another FDR like move. Maybe Canada will survive.
How does one respond? I don’t know. I’m just a retired individual still needing to recover from the last market melt down. Have had a little gain the last four or five months but now getting conflicting advise from different sources. Consequently I really don’t know what to do.
I am starting to question Gold and Silver as a strategy, if interest rates are due to escalate, I believe that precious metals will not perform well. I will always keep some physical holdings for any future “doomsday”. However, it may be time to exit mining stocks etc and go back to what has always served me well, Canadian Real estate revenue properties. One thing as a Canadian, I will keep what assets I have as far away from the US market and from government control as I can.
I deal with the insane government policy and resulting market uncertainty, complete with major threats of disasters coming from multiple sources, by investing defensively! I use a diversified approach: inverse ETF’s that target market downturns or specific situations like the bonds, gold-silver (physical and paper), short term Treasury cash stash, select stocks that outperform during the rally’s, select growth and income stocks (strong companies and fundamentals with rising EPS and dividends– set to benefit from current environment) and also, currency positions. I also short term trade for increased cash flow. I WATCH TECHNICAL’S daily and ACTIVELY MANAGE my account! I also subscribe to several high quality independent research reports, of which Safe Money Report is included! THANKS, Martin! I do all I possibly can do and PRAY God will help me do what I can’t do! I think this roller coaster ride has barely begun!
L.H.
I have mutual funds in Primerica which are AFG and on the Canadian side of Primerica which is involved with Citibank should I bail out of these mutual funds and put them into a safer bank mutual fund in Canada? Have you any advise for me, thank U for all the information that U have given me. I am getting more educated. Michael
I am currently getting rid of as many US stocks as I can without taking too much of a loss. Hoping to invest in Asian stocks, ETFs, and in the Canadian market.
We have 85% of our cash in a treasury account (30 day notes for relative safety and flexibility or/and in five star rated banks. 10% has been riding precious metal etf’s and sound mining stocks since April/May 2009 and the remainder is ready for short etfs such as SH, PSQ, RWM etc. or/and their 2X leveraged brethern in the very near future. I have a target close below 10,000 for this decision depending on resistance and support zones. Just 2 pts. away today so maybe tomorrow is the day. All our precious metal and mining etfs’ are closing in on their stop loss points so may need to adjust or let the sales happen. One other thing – we made the decision several years ago to become and stay debt free including no mortgage which gives us a certain degree of comfort and security looking forward. Still haven’t invested anything in China ,India and Brazil but we’re aware of the potential. Once there is some clear direction we’ll move more cash to investments.
Patrick
Hi Martin, your advice has been truly invaluable to my investments throughout the years. To that, Thank you! But now I have a new concern. What is the likelihood that the US govt. will nationalize 401(k)s, IRAs, 403(b)s, etc? And, if so, how soon? The reason I ask is that seems to me that since the federal deficits are patently unpayable, foreign investors/creditors may demand some kind of proof that their investments (Treasury bonds, notes and bills) are safe. And if one totals all the these retirement accounts together they come pretty close to around 10 maybe 11 trillion US dollars. What would stop them from simply raiding those accounts to pay off those debts? I am actually contemplating the removal of my money from my 403(b), paying the taxes and penalties and walking away. Any insight would be most helpful. Thanks!
Mr. Weiss:
Surely you are not in favor of trying to balance the budget in the middle of an
economic catastrophy ‘a la 1931 or 1932? What choice has the administration
but to run a huge deficit, given the situation? Your criticism of the administration’s
efforts appears extremely disingenuous and politically motivated, given that you are
an economist and(presumably) know better. You have been forthright in laying the blame for the dire situation we are in, and I commend you for that. The public should never be
allowed to lose sight of this, and those responsible should not be allowed to try to distort the narrative to blame Congress or some other party for the disaster they
have brought down on our heads. What’s next–are we also going to find that
you favor reducing the deficit on the backs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid?
God help us all.
Yo,
Maybe I am stupid but as I see it the goose that layed the golden eggs, the middle class with manufacturing jobs has left. (outsourced)
If I was still in business you do not hire more employees until the demand is there. Do you see a demand?
The rest of the gov’t programs are not going to put the golden egg back together.
I’m open to suggestions.
Sold everything bought gold was $600 am now 80% gold bullion in hand 20 % cash (cdn).Although fortunes made and lost everyday in markets I am a simple working man and as such have no time for that folly …Martin would it not seem self evident the reason the timing of the sovereign bond is impossible is that all countries sovereign bonds are in the same situation.Sure the US deficit is the craziest of the developed world but that is only because the US is the Biggest dog so to say and everyone knows this .All other countries are in equal or worse shape with their respective sovereign bonds .Greece ,England etc just as you and others have pointed out. So since this is a world wide financial fiasco .The relevant question I pose to you and your learned team ,Klause etc and institute of cycles etc is ..Where is all this bond money going to go ?
Or will it go anywhere? Seems to me and probably to you and your team we are on the road to a world collapse. Some will say engineered but engineered or not at the least a new bretton woods will be instituted and probably with the USD probably still as the “worlds currency” but at a new world agreed level as to co-devalue all current worldwide deficits …sometime around ..perhaps….2012.
Your thoughts?
First, thanks for all the good research. Your analisys of coming market trends and events is most helpful.
in this market I try to stay nearly net neutral in market sectors where the trend is unclear and stay on the profitable side of shorter term trends using 1,2and 3 x bull and bear ETF’s.
If long term rates are going “sky-high” it may be prudent to begin building a position in TBT (2x bear 30 year bonds) or TMV (3x).
It is my sincere belief that most people do not believe or understand the gravity of the financial mess we are in. What to do? Right now I am buying on the lows and selling on the highs as I do not know what the next six months will bring. Much of Europe is having the same problems we are, so where do you go? I still like Canada and Southeast Asia. This decade in my opinion will be best determined by the professional stock picker.
what we have is a byproduct economy of real wealth without real wealth which comes from production of goods natural resources and agriculture.without this we will never have a sound economy.washington does not have our best interest and never will with those in power today.they are place there by the same people who have taken us here.as for tomorow every day is a surprise hold cash buy gold invest wisely and pray for we are in for a roughride for we have forgotten that we are no different than others except for our constitution.
Martin, I still expect oil and gold to have some value when inflation hits. Gold will have value forever. Oil may not stay viable that long as it will have major ups and downs over the next two years. I have sold all other stocks. I had retirement funds with a very big firm while I was working and they do not know how to make money for the customer so I closed most of my positions. I expect most mutual funds to crash either this year or next. ETFs may have a similar problem – if you pick the wrong ones. Day trading may be the only way to go as the markets become more volatile over the next five years. I close out to cash at the end of every day. In gold I trust – all others: cash. I also expect to see a major shift in power from West to East over the next 5 years.
damn good question, when does all heck break loose.. the bond world is always right, I believe this to be true so, how can we study the action in the bonds to fore see the meltdown.. I don’t know,, I need someone to assist me here..
WHAY DON’T THAY GO AFTER WALL STREET, AND THOSE COMPANEY THAT ARE GIVING MILLIONS IN DONATIONS.
THANK YOU
NED R. PROUSE SR.
All currencies are toast. I’m 90% gold, just sitting back and watching the trainwreck. Patience is a virtue.
Hi Martin,
As a comedian once said–” Hi it,s me again” . Well to answer your question, I think if you and your family are not in a good small community–prefferably close to farming, you should be . This should have been done years ago, although it is never too late to do so. Most sensible people will survive because of long to mid. term planning.Keep your powder dry—a reasonable amount of liquidity–faith,and keep your eyes and ears open. IN ONE WORD–FLEXIBILITY.
Denis
The only hedge against inflation is to buy real estate with your cash
NOW
John C
Currently watching point and figure chart for $CRB:$USD which is
currently indicating a sell position for commodities, will remain in
short term cash position until a clear buy signal is given.
Martin: One can not eat gold or silver… One can use it to buy consumer necessities, (food, water, clothes, guns, etc.) if there is some to purchace and any cost. Again, and they are not making any more, Dirt and best southern dirt with water. Don’t think the economies (world) will totally collapse to the extent of disfunctionality, but so goes America so goes the world, to big to fail, nope just a bigger splash. Sure (So goes GM so goes America). When the reality check sets in it will hurt like hell and a good precentage of Americans just don’t have a clue how to survive when the shelves are empty. Around twenty precent of our working force is learning right now these hard lessons. My dad was wise and successful in family and business. In the sixties when I was buying land and drilling for oil he said, “Son you can’t drink it”, you’ll see a day when water will trump oil. Wars will/are/have been fought over oil and water, no water no oil, pop was right. To answer the question on when “it” hits the fan. If your in the markets you should have Stops on every play, period! Simple, get out with an acceptable loss. FIC (Fat In Cash) will rule, always has. Save your cash and use it to survive the implosion, somebody might take it for some groceries. If not use your Silver first and the Gold. Let’s hope the masses don’t distroy this great country. We have to get involved to insure the wise and strong will rise to govern this great county for our future generations. Life is good, love your children and kick the bumbs off the hill.
Happy trails my friends
Dr j
My mother died. The ESTATE is being distributed to three children. The Management Company is presently Brown Brothers Harriman. After reviewing the CORE COMPANIES, I found that just about every stock was a USA COMPANY. I am so confused….about whether to have BBH continue to manage or to pull everything (1/2 cash and 1/2 stocks) and sell stocks…hold cash or invest in gold and silver or gas/oil pipelines and possibly continue to hold Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
In my personal account, I am in GOLD ( BARRICK GOLD, AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD AND COINS, SILVER (COINS) and ENERGY
stocks (i.e. Exxon, OXY,ENBRIDGE ENERGY PARTNERS, MAJELLAN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LLP, ONEOK PARTNERS, LP, PETROBRAS, ENTERPRISE GP HOLDINGS LP, HESS CORPORATION, KINDER MORGAN ENERGY PARTNERS LP, SCHLUMBERGER, SINOPEC, UNG, COPANO ENERGY, EXXON, CHEVRON.
I am hoping that you will point me in the right direction. My portfolio is not diversified. I know we are on the edge of a double dip recession. Maybe everything should be in cash.???????????? I need direction from you, Martin.
Thanks,
Carolyn
I don’t have a clue when? Where does one in their seventies invest for income$$
Martin,
Cash in, buy physical precious metals, and get drunk! (save enough to pay taxes, all in pennies.)
Seriously, your suggestion for 50% cash reserves for a cushion and to purchase bargins is a strategy that I agree with, however not in the US dollar (I haven’t decided where yet, maybe the MERK fund.) 25-30% gold/silver precious medals, 25-30% in conservative Asian and/or other foreign stocks. I would avoid all but the financially strongest countries and currencies, and not invest in any financial institutions. What are the chances of China “taking” investments that are made in their country if/when the US defaults on debt?
To top it off, I understand the SEC now has the option to put a hold on money market funds and prohibit withdrawls and transfers to oversea investments.
Will you please address an appropriate vehicle to hold cash where the SEC cannot put a hold on it? What are your suggestions for your question?
Connie M.
I now believe completely that the Chicago mob running this country does not want the USA to grow and thrive. Their plan is to have things get so bad enconmically that they can buy even more and we will stagnate like France, UK etc. I do not understand why BHO has not been sued, It is not in our constitution that the Feds run health care. He just wants more federal jobs. We are 75 and the fuure does not look very good to us…BHO is an empty suit who wants the productive members of society to support the kings and queens in Congress…and all the slackers..I am about to become one also.
what is happening in greece and spain? will it effect us economy?
Question: If Bonds are the next accident waiting to happen, then how can we postion our selfs to profit from it. Ie EFt’s etc. ?
THE WORLD ECONOMY DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
HOUSING CRISIS GETTING UGLIER IN 2010 WITH 6 MILLION FORECLOSURE IN THE PAST 3 YEARS AND 3 MILLION MORE EXPECTED FOR 2010
WITH GREECE’S DEFAULT AND INSURANCE COMPANIES ARE ON THE HOOK
EURO DOLLAR DROPPING AND A MAD RUSH FOR AMERICAN DOLLAR FORCING THE DOLLAR UP,, CAUSING OIL AND GAS TO DROP AS WELL AS GOLD,,, RISING UNEMPLOYMENT CAUSING LESS CONSUMPTION OF FUEL..
SPAIN,, PORTUGAL,, COULD BE NEXT????
SECOND WAVE OF DOWN SIDE IS VERY CLOSE
WITH PAUL VAULKNER WARNING THE BANKS TO REIGN IN RISKY INVESTMENT
I HAVE TO ADMIT I AM NOT BRAVE TO ENTER THIS MARKET
UNTIL NEXT TIME
GOD BLESS
LAWRENCE
You simply ask God and He tells you not only when but what and where to put your money into, and clearly He is showing some of us amazing opportunities. Certain new technologies not even on the radar screen yet and new energy forms on the horizon that will transform the way we live! Bright days ahead!
Get out of risky assets like non US treasuries. Get out of risky commodities. Get out of risky currency investmets like BRIC currencies, Aussies etc.
Bring yr money into save haven, keep it there and hit the market when its on its knees and the blood is on the ground.
Hi everyone, I am in the UK, our economy is also confused as to what is going on. I have 80% of my asset value in cash, the rest in shares and gold bullion. I am going to do nothing for the next 4 weeks or so, I feel that it is dangerous at the moment. I do not fully understand why the dollar is doing so well, I follow closely the advice of Larry.
I would like to wish all sensible investors good luck, our Governments have decided to ignore good sense in favour of votes. Short termism rules.
1. I believe in equity with hard assets behind. But my concern is that the traditonal PE will become outdated. Why? If more money is printed – and part of this money flows into equity – by definition the PE goes up. So it could be that a PE for Potash arround 30 is a “fair value” – as long as low iterest rates are there.
If one believes that the money will not leave the market anymore – then equity and corporate bonds are the instruments to use. Time average mehod might be interesting since timing with a current volatility is tricky.
I am a 71 year old retiree now dependant on a small fixed income basically social security and soon my IRA. Long term govt. bonds no longer seem safe, due to the exploding debt and the forecast of big-time inflation. Where does someone like me go for a secure place to hold my IRA? The 401k has been rolled into it.
I think that there a lot of me’s out there that need this kind of help.
Thanks for your help, if there is any.
Ken
I don’t think anybody knows for sure about anything except that if we need more money we are going to print it and deal with the problems later: Just like we always have. If we don’t we put depression bace on the table.
I”am a new invester, still trying to learn the ropes and make some money at the same time, I’m all ears.
What happens to both revenue and non-revenue municipal bonds maturing in a long term time span, 2020-2030, if the possibility of another recession occurrs?
If I was an American, I would be investing as much as I could into stable foreign economies, because neither the US Government, the US Economy, or even the US Dollar can be trusted. I’m expecting the dollar to hyperinflate, and the US to fall into financial ruin like Rome and Weimar Germany, unless they did some drastic change.
Being Canadian, I am more confident in my currency, however even I am nervous of what’s happening down south. One thing that needs to change: The culture of entitlement, ranging from the politicians and bankers right up to the many “McMansion” owners who bought their luxurious lives with debt.
I am Short long bonds and some financials
confidence and growing values driven by real demand are what make a healthy economy , stimulus and artificial returns propped up by fed practices only disguise temporarily the underlying debt problems which if you have an ounce of intelligence did not go away from last september. To securitize the exposed debt market we need increasing values which is what the feds are trying to do putting out cheap money to increase demand , however until the credit market can be fixed to match off the cheap money so people can buy we will stay in this vortex of stagnation . Rising commodity prices in the short term slow the recovery , less money in the consumers hands . if debt continues to rise without rising values including wages , increasing taxes are a certainty again less money in the hands of consumers. equity and available credit to leverage into buying power is how the US grew , without it your stuck, to see the future check the health of the consumer , until they get fixed , we won’t see real demand and increasing values. In short stay in cash or hedge to gold , capital preservation , buying opportunities in 6 months as most stocks are over sold and over valued, I see big sell offs coming .
Trying to time the market is a fools game. Usually one is to early or to late. However, if one feels stronly that U.S. T Bonds are going to drop, the safe action is to put 30-50 % of your money in an ETF that shorts these bonds, and divide the rest of your money between blue Chip, high dividend stocks, precious metas and cash.
Thanks Martin,
You’re my lantern to better see in the darkness of mis-inforrmation going on. I agree 100% in your worry. It has been said that the only thing you ever owned is what you gave away.
This time is really a game changer! I understand it’s tempting to manipulate GDP and the job situation. But it won’t wash. It really never did. Illusions never last. The problem is they feel a lot better than dis-illutions
We need new technology, but not at the expense of clean water and healthy unadulterated food. So here is a positive future for the industry to help nature. It took industry and overpopulation 100 years to destroy what nature accomplished over millions of years. That must stop now. Go green.
We need education people can pay. We need true and competitive production that respect the environment, and I don’t see much. I believe to bee witnessing a lot of lobbying, that only benefits the industry for a short time. But on the long haul it’s a disaster.
The competition with China may still propel the US to the moon, but that’s probably the last muscle cramps before China takes over.
Now USA is still a rich country with lots of resources, that should not be wasted in the old manner; but the handicap compared to the BRIGs is the difference in wages and the establishments egoism, and the resulting price structure.
There are other balloons that havn’t been punctured yet: The in-efficiencies in the service sector and the medical service sector. These balloons got huge, because nobody dared to prick a hole in them, but it was close with the vaccine scam. And there is a lot more than people are willing – or dare – to see.
So , yes I see lots of dark clouds in the horizon.
I have my entire 401k plan invested in the Pimco Total Return Fund. How safe is the corporate bond market?
Thanks for the invitation
I am fearful of losing what I have already saved so instead of perhaps making a real
profit, I chose to put my nest egg into another CD at 3.3% for another 3 years.
I think Scot Brown will open up some eyes washington. And washington needs a ENEMA.
i have a 30yr bond with a hospital (i think). we get interest every 3 mo. i have another one with an local hospital. i use edward jones for my broker. am i in trouble with this bond bubble?
i am told to invest my deductable amount of 6000.00 into an ira. roth i think. one for me and one for my wife. i have been doing this for the past few yrs. should i?
if interest rates are to go high in the near future, should i put my money in savings and draw good interest rates instead of taking risks?
thanks
vernon
I use options which, I think, are the most appropriate for my investing style.
The coming Wipout is a planned consequence of government intensions. If earned wealth cannot be maintaned then the whole shooting-match is divided by a common denominator so we all end up about the same.
Good morning Martin,
My personal opinion is that within the year, The dollar could go as low as 50% of its current value. I think silver is the way to go rather than gold. As you know, the law is still on the books to confiscate Gold and I sure wouldn’t put it pass these yahoos in congress to do just that. I would appreciate your thoughts.
Best regards,Don Blettner
Do you know a better way to pay down deficits then to devalue our currency ? Greatest ponzi scheme ever put on to mankind in history … Madeoff is a piker !
A huge problem is the Money went to the wrong people and too few pockets. If all this money spent was consumer oriented, we would have a different outcome, putting money in the system. We have a major malfunction and the U.S investors money, companies, are outflowing to other places. We have been sold out…
The only change I can beleive in now is the changing of our Administration for which I did not vote in and the change in Congress and all the rest.
They don’t listen, they don’t see and they “particularly Congress” who can change
the course.
I am along with my fellow constitutional Americans concerned about the attitude
of Nancy the Princess, and Reid…….Both of them are reckless and care nothing
for the people who have had the outcry to do what is right and do what is prudent
and do what makes sense. I know the Nancy does not run her business she has
in California in debt or into the ground
I firmly believe that what is going on is being done on purpose with an agenda
that is against private interprise, against the free markets, against married people,
against families, against what America is all about.
They all rose they’re hand in a covenant and pledge and promise to unhold the
constitution of the United States from outside enemies and inside enemies.
It appears we swore in the enemies.
Most of us who have become educated and knowledgable are concerned and we
will fight back with the ongoing Tea Parites and the ongoing push to give out
the facts and give out the information to inform all americans the grave situtations
we are now in.
Only hearts turning to God to intervine and people doing what is right will this
be healed and go in the right directions.
Thanks for letting me spout off……..
I would think physical gold and silver would be the best investment. However, the price has been coming down even with all of the sovereign debt issues. Can somebody explain why this is?
new to this but interested
“SINCE TIME BEGAN”
“WE HAVE BEEN IN WARS”
Guess it started …. (with)”The Wars in Heaven”
This will not stop till we love one another.
As for This President & When John Mccain ran for office…Mccain said 100 years -50 years & continue fighting!…That is one reason McCain lost & of course he said he
did not know much about the ECONOMY (2-bad moves by McCain)
This President said CHANGE….BUT NEVER SAID WHAT THE CHANGE WOULD BE.
PERSONALLY i THINK this President needs to be fired.
Solve this How?
Bring our soliders home & let them protect out borders & lands.
Train citizens (Pakistan ect) over seas at war & Sell them weapons
We are doing “NO Good over there”
The soldiers lost & money spent is ‘NUTS’
We need a total revamp of Politics …& I will go no further with this statement!
Thank you for your time if you read my email.
you can’t create jobs by lowering taxes to the richest people in the country, the supply sidders are still screaming that there way is the best way, trickle down economics only trickles down their pants leg. unemployement will be a lagging indictor, some of those jobs will never come back, even the evil dick cheney said that deficits don’t count he didn’t care he had his already in a swiss bank and halliberton, if we did nothing last year we would be seeing 25 – 30 % unemployement, let is play out things don’t move in a second they take as long as it took to get in this mess and maybe longer without help.
It does appear to me that it is time to be on the sidelines. I have moved my stock funds to PIMCO Total Return. I would like some input on this bond fund as rising interest rates would not be good!
I think that we have started a major correction and it will be very bad. the PIGS debt problem is only going to get worse. We have hundreds of cities in the US with serious debt problems. Unemployment is getting worse and I do not see improvement as long as President continues to promote policies that destroy the middle class. I feel the American public is turning negative and will turn on the incumbents in power. I am short the market and in cash and short term treasuries and TIPS. I will wait until no wants to put money back into market. I will take the portfolios suggested by your group and wait.
Thoughts —- Govt spends more than it takes in revenue. Wars to fight, roads, schools, foreign aid, social security, dams, power, infrastructure. These costs don’t go away (well, OK the war cost is going away a little bit. We still have our car companies and banks with a little help in loans and equity but not that much in the big picture.
OK – the costs remain – Let’s see – does revenue have to increase??? Duuu. Finally we’ve got a President with the courage to propose raising taxes on the incomes over $250K and even a little bit more if you make a million A YEAR, THAT IS.!!!! Let’s get moving on the revenue side of the equation for the super rich. Oh, I forgot they all worked their finges to the bone,. Yea right – Majority of it isn inherited over and over again. I don’t think all those places at Lake George appeared since 1970 because somebody like me worked their fingers to the bone, actually. There are TRILLIONS in “Old Money” in this country and these super incomes can stand a couple percent more in tax. It’s the ONLY place left for revenue to come from.
Dear Martin & Team, you save the hardest to the last:
I have just been listening on the radio to someone else thinking out of the box. In Byzantine times, they would never have used their top military forces to fight a backwater war in a country which does not want to be dragged into the 21st century, instead they would have found who the local enemy were and armed them with their nearest neighbours who opposed the warmongers, in this case China. This will stop the Taliban from gaining control, yes this may mean we loose our control – but does that matter – the politicians just want our support when they claim they are keeping back world terror? How about the Yemen and Iran? This is the same kind of thinking required for where we are today on the economy.
My solutions is not so imaginative. Invest in blue chip companies with good fundamentals, and good foreign earnings, knowing even they will fall when the market turns bad again, but they will also be amongst the first to rise again. After all we are all in the same boat. Weiss Team members know which countries have bought the bad debt of USA and United Kingdom, we know which National economies have the greatest chance of bouncing back quickly, we know that the baby boomers are getting older and need of more pills etc. To those who think they can beat the odds good luck!
I am in complete agreement about the disasterous results of a significant increase in interest rates. On the one hand, the rest of the world wants us to tighten up our financial lending policies and improve the status of the dollar. And on the other hand, it will sink our economy. I see only two possibilities for safety…..real estate (and retreating to a grow your own food on your own land state of existance) and hard commodities like minerals buying on drops. It sounds ridiculous but for the average person, I can see a very hard scrabble future. Most of our food is now imported and I consider that a very dangerous state of affairs.
Beware the Ides of 2010_2011-2012 . The unemployment numbers seem to be improving even though job losses outpace new jobs. Why? The jobless pool is loosing benefits in greater numbers as it ages. A year from now nearly eight million soles will either find employment or run out of benefits. looks like we have this fix on auto-pilot.
OldAxe, Following a market in Terra incognito
Our family “owes” the Medicare system about $500,000: $350,000 for cancer treatments for my Dad over a three-year period; $100,000 for my brother’s treatment for two heart attacks; $50,000 for my mother’s treatment during the last week of her life and,finally, about $25,000 for my heart catherization treatment a few years ago.
These kinds of bills could very possibily have bankrupted my family, so I do appreciate the financial support for these treatments. However, we have all become much more prevention-minded in dealing with our family’s health and are working very hard to avoid incurring large debts like this. So, I would be willing to have my Medicare payments temporarily frozen as well as paying higher premiums for this protection.
As Mr. Churchill once said, “blood, sweat and tears” will be necessary to deal with our current financial problems. Unfortunately, the Brits could see, hear and really feel tha threats from the Nazi bombers. Most Americans simply don’t get it!!!!
Our businesses have been overselling Americans on the idea of “Getting It ALL. . . and Getting It Right NOW” for about two decades now. And no one wants to talk about sacrifices, or sweating, or postponing any kind of satisfaction! We have all created this mess, but no one (especially business leaders) don’t want to talk about what it will take to get ourselves out of this mess!!!
Help! I am definitely worried about the dollar – but really do not have a solid feel for investing overseas. I think by mid-year we will see a direction in this country and I fear it is not what we all want. Martin, if you would give us some specific direction on the stokcs that will protect us I am sure all would appreciate it. I beleive Australia has a strong economy – but which stocks are good there? I also like Brazil – but again, I don’t have a specific list of stocks.
It depends on the nature of the traumatic event. If it is expected to boost the value of the security – gradually accumulate the underlying shares. If it is expected to cause loss in value then gradually accumulate Inverse shares or, if not available, then closely watch developments and standby to scoop up the bonds at lower prices immediately after the shock so as to take advantage of the probable over-correction.
Look at the buying opportunities that are about to be given to us.
When this bubble bursts, where will safety be found?
Will comodities like precious metals, oil etc. be safe or will they also tank?
If they tank will even cash be safe
When this bubble bursts, where will safety be found?
Will comodities like precious metals, oil etc. be safe or will they also tank?
If they tank will even cash be safe?
Maybe the brutal winter weather will save us. Imagine Washington , D.C. being buried in white stuff, with the Congress and White House completely paralyzed for awhile! They may even need to back off from their war on carbon. Then if only they would stop all those other wars — the war on health insurers, the war on corporate profits, the war on banks, and the war on capitalism — the economy could catch its breath and recover a tiny bit.
We need to GET OUT of foeigon Countries, Enforce our Labor laws,Hold our Elected Officials ACCOUNTABLE (and try them for TREASON IF THEY REFUSE) And GET BACK TO CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT
Martin,
I am 70 yrs of age and have approxiimately 75% of IRA in a variable annuity with a guaranteed income stream for life. My question is if the markets do go south, which I think they will, should I cash in the annuity, take the penalty and reinvest. The monthly income does give me some comfort but who knows how bad things will get and could the company possibly become insolvent. Thanks, Les
Are there any studies on previous societies or economies that have prospered and then collapsed due to their debt and fiscal policies?
I wonder what the time line related to rate of inflation was.
Martin, While I’m not an investor. Already lost what I worked for all my life. I appreciate the work you do. I also enjoy reading the comments from other readers of your writings. I study about people and why do things that we do. I worked 40 years and thought I was investing in something I could pass on to my children and grand children. You make one wrong move and I find out you can be wiped out completely.The rich, Who have the connections to the politicans who write the laws the want and to give them the ability to take everything someone has without trying to work things out with people who have become disabled or had job losses like we in this country have had the last few years does nothing but show the greed they have. Going back to the constitution will do nothing to help this country until the people have the fear of God in themselves as our founding fathers did.
Take everything out of the market and put it under the mattress
These are the questions, the answers to, that I am hoping to get some guidance from you and your people. Answers that will work in Canada, specific answers such that I can take specific action with my portfolio.
i just got back from fla. where i attended a old car sale and spoke to hundreds of people in that 4 day event; now mind you these auto are not cheep going from low 30,000.00 up to over 400,000.00.. they sold over 1100 cars, a very strong sale, for this ecomony. the people who came to this auction came to buy. they all were with the attuide that theirs no safe place to put your money. so why not put it into something you can enjoy. that hard assets are as good a investment as any at this time. just like gold or silver, they will only go up in price, with time. to be as deversfied as you can. to trust that this country will get back to its grass root principals. everone feels that if something not done about our banking institutions, if they not brought under control the inflation and then deflation they and the corporations around them create will grow and grow untill the people of this country will wake up one day and find them selves homeless…
The news is not getting any better——–have pulled back 90% in equities holdings and parked money in bank CD’s (even at awful rates–nothing over one year term as they must go up soon!), plus some tax exempt municipals, and plan to sit tight and stay out of the market at this time!!
What do we do now?
I believe we should start paying down the debt or balanncing the budgit immediately with a fifty cent per gallon tax. This tax would give the US an oppertunity to make a profit off of our major import.
The only defense is to flee to precious metals. A continued de-basing of the US Dollar, as well as the money of nations all over the world will progressively suck the value of life-savings from anyone not investing in “real assets.” A rough but not exact quote on Keyne’s book “The Economic Consequences of the Peace” reveals what is a root actively engaged within the policies of the U.S. government: “Through a process of continual inflation and money printing, a significant amount of the wealth can be confiscated from the population and in a manner that not one in one million persons can detect what is happening.” My GOD! A proposed budget of $3.8 TRILLION?! Just half that about is an insane amount. These are figures that are really unimaginable let alone it be outright rediculous! WAKE UP! The writing is on the wall. Massive money printing – IE. MASSIVE INFLATION – is at hand! The only thing that is going to turn this ship around is outright rebellion by the taxpayers when they find out they have been had by “good intentioned” politicians. The coming soon second financial melt down will make the last one look like a pot of pennies.
The answer is simple it’s the solution is difficult and needs universal approval. We must restore our gold backed currency, so the dollar reflects the value of gold. Second indite the criminals and let the world know counterfieting still dosn’t pay. The Fed. is not a instituttion of our government but a private group of selfserving banker globalists that need to be extradited. They are not capable of living among naive, God loving people who live by higher standards, where human life still holds respect and vallue. A government that has the trust of it’s people that the wars they fight have been declared legal by THEIR congress.
NOW is the time to adjust. As much as I need to grow my portfolio, I also need to make sure that it does not shrink. At this time, risk is clearly outweighing reward.
Think of it this way. If you smoke cigarettes, and there is this mountain of information out there about how dangerous they are, do you quit now before the damage has accumulated? Or do you wait until the actual diagnosis of cancer?
As a student of history, I am torn over the present situation. Massive deficit spending was DELAYED during the Great Depression and the economy stabilized at 20-25 % unemployment. We finally reached full employment in 1943 through massive amounts of deficit spending. We emerged from WWII as THE world power and kept up the Keynesian Military spending. We have over 700 bases overseas and significantly out spend our closest rival country( China) for Defense. Defense of what: our economic interests? Wall Street and the FED policies put us in this situation and then decry the spending necessary to stabilize the problem. The Government of China owns its Central Bank. When it pumped the equivalent of 2 trillion dollars into its economy it created no debt. The same people who worship Wall Street decry deficit spending here. JFK passed a resolution in June 1963 that forbade the Fed to charge interest on the monies loaned to the U.S. Govt.. This might have been a tipping point towards his demise but we have to ask why are the people saddled with such debt. The hard working people of this country have been hypnotized into believing the stock game is the answer to their retirements. This casino economy with all of its WorldComs, Enrons, Madoff’s, and many more make one wonder if any investment is safe at this time.
The problem I see……. keeping principal, as the economy worsens cash will become king, just being able to maintain your cash value will be the challenge, as banks close the FDIC will limit withdrawal as well, because cash won’t be available. They (FED) can’t print it fast enough. Profit will be a thing of the past.
Dear Martin:
I am sitting on a significant amount of cash. If interest rates spike high, I would be delighted. I am not a fan of the current insulting C.D. rates of less then 0.50% Several months ago, the front page caption in Barrons read, “Come on Ben, Give The Savers A Break”. Exactly my thoughts.
Hello Dr. Weiss and Associates–
Good question! I can only do what I can do–if I prepare as best I can, first with things that will benefit me financially regardless of what turn the economy takes, such as paying off bills, and making myself as independant as I can in small ways–such as having a garden, having civil preparedness (see the book “Ultimate Urban Survivalist Guide” by Sean Brodrick), then at least I will have the basics. When it comes to timing the markets, well, the fact that markets can and are being manipulated by Wall Street crooks and powerful polititians makes it unpredictable , at least for a while. And speaking of market manipulation, here’s a thought for all of us to ponder:
To the extent that gold/silver can be manipulated by governments, big banks, etc., is the extent to which they can manipulate and shake out peoples’ physical holdings without having to be so obvious as to confiscate it by force the way FDR did during the Great Depression.
One last thought–this terrible mess that the US Economy is in was set in motion a long time ago. Both Democrats and Republicans have had a hand in it. What did they think would happen when they repealed the Glass-Steagel Act ?(hope my spelling is correct there). I really believe that we would be in the same mess no mater who won the election. Add to that the fact that global climate change is and will continue to wreak havoc, and that this global economic crisis makes it harder for us to respond in an ecologially responsible matter, well, we are really up a creek without a paddle! All I can say is, do what you can, pray, help others, and trust in God’s love even when things seem to say the opposite…..
Sincerely,
Lisa R.
It really upsets me to see this wonderful country being destroyed by a group of left-wing agnostics hell bent on force feeding us their disputation! After a close examination you realize it amounts to no more than a bad case of verbal diarrhea mixed with selfish intent!
Dear Dr. Weiss
I have never qualified in economics and the only book I have read was by Professor Tom Rose called “Economics: Principles and Policy”. One of the main points is this book was the importance of frugality.
Frugality is something that the U.S.A needs to take very seriously.
I think taxes need be to raised, but by very indirect means.
Adding a few cents to car fuel should create much of a stir, but could raise quite a lot of revenue. In the UK where I live petrol costs about £1 per litre.
Regards
John G.
The first way to control the deficit is to stop spending billions each month on wars that don’t make us safer, spread terror, hatred and poison, but make a few military-industrial corporations filthy rich. That would free up billions for Washington to use to encourage development of a new, green economy here at home and would possibly grant us honoed membership in th ecommunity of nations again. Ending the wars and developing a green economy would also end our dependence on foreign oil and all the concomitant downside of that trade exchange. Next, Wall Street needs to be re-regulated. They are bilking billions out of the economy and putting nothing back. Bonuses to banks that still hold taxpayer money should be illegal. It is time to end the two-class elitist trade philosophy that got us into this mess. Maybe, what we need to do is spank a few people who consider themselves “legitimate”, but like Carl Icahn, are simply stealing within the law.
According to the Old Bohemian Plan, when you run out of Cash (Disposable Income) don’t
use your Plastic (Credit Cards), cause when you are all in, you are all In, and by sticking your Neck out for someone to take a whack @ it; you’ll Loose!!!
If you don’t believe me, try and find a responsible Congressman who believes in full filling his elected duty for a response…you can Cash @ the Bank ….
1-Both houses of Congress must start working together to STOP DEFICIT FINANCING.
The numbers of borrowing and printing monies destroyed China aftr WWII, Chile,
Argentina and more. THe same happened after WWI to Germany and back into
history to Rome and others. Our better credit rating was just bigger so we spent
more. Now, it’s time to cut all deficits before we use up all our credit.
2-We need to be an example to the world that the USA can put its house in order before we destroy our and the worlds economy. We have the knowledge and guts to correct and succeed in this mission.
The scariest part of this whole mess is the lack of understanding or wisdom on the part of the voting public. What Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are doing right now is perfectly in character with who they are and what they promised during the presidential campaign and still the American voter had “visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads”.
There is no integrity, no wisdom, no common sense and no appreciation for the United States as envisioned by our Founding Fathers. Voters are our own worst enemy if we allow ourselves to vote over and over for these con artists in Washington and our state legislators. I’m from California and the situation is exactly the same here as in Washington.
The market is taking a BIG hit today as it did yesterday. I believe that the market (whole market) is at a turning point. As you pointed out, the bond market is a crash waiting to happen and the US borrowing binge is going crazy. Also, the support to the credit market as far as liquidity, whereby Fed is buying various instruments apparently is winding down or ending soon. I’ve read it is in the Feb, March, April time periods for various instruments. Therefore, I have already taken positions in the inverse ETF’s which operate to go up when bonds fall; specifically TBT and PST. It may be fractionally early, but when they go I believe they will blow!
Dear Sirs: I would be interested in knowing what the White House and members of congress think of your predictions and concerns. George
Why would they worry about being able to fog a mirror when they really only intend to fog the investing peons!
I don’t clame to be smart, but I think we Could fix our country over night. Americans need to have one weeks worth of extra cash each month, after the bills are payed! Thats the money we send on extras and save or invest. We don’t have that any more, that cream was skimed off by high fuel cost big morgages and other scams. I don’t know who ended up with all that money, but our econimy will never recover antil that free flowing money is put back! Now if the President would take that seven billion that is left put it in the hands of tax paying working class. Economy fixed! Yes some people will wast that money, but it will be in the flowing in the economy. Just think new cars (auto sales up) shopping (retail up) morgages payed (home sales up) the list goes on. But instead our gov. leaders will find a way to put that money in their own pockets and all of their freinds. We will keep sinking!
I have been investing for almost 60 years and I am going to heed your advice.
I have always enjoyed YOUR newsletters with YOUR thoughts YOUR ideas YOUR recommendations. Lately all I am getting is the profile of investment tactics and portfolio of Mr. and Mrs. average trader. Unless they have credentials equal to yours I have no interest in what they bought or why the bought it . Can I look forward to soon reading about the recommendations of YOU and YOUR research staff who rely more on history and research than on gut feelings?
I’m more confused now than ever. Does anyone have a solution?
mycar.
When is the shift hit the fan? Predictions please
I cannot understand how anyone in his/her right mind can’t see the danger this country is in regarding the massive debt. I honestly believe we have gone too far, and we are on a one way street to destruction of the life we have become accustomed to, no mater what amount of “wealth” any individual might have. I fear for the future and have grave doubts regarding survival of the U.S.
Obama Pelosi and other liberals want to destroy American ecomony, so they
can fundamentally change America into a communist banana republic
Obama and other elitists can rule.
I agree with another commentor that the stupid voters are doing it to us.
Since I have no insider information, and, am a novice active investor, I am putting a lot of faith in Weiss research coming through these alerts and the Safe Money Report.
The manufacturing has left the country. The country will not have a full recovery until the corporations are brought back. Full employment will not be available until the corp return. Bond interest will have to increase. Next will come deflation. Then will come inflation in about 18 to 24 months later. Even Bill Gross has stopped purchasing long term treasuries. I am 75 yr young. I grew up in the depression. I served in the military as one of the occupation troops after WW2. Unless someone who understands economics takes control of the finances for the country, it will go bankrupt & default on our debt. Therefore I am 50% in gold & equiv. and 50% in cash & equiv. Your father was one of the smartest indiv in his time & you appear to be cut from the same bolt of cloth. Keep up the good work.
Best Regards to You & Yours
Everybody wants more jobs, but we have to be manufacturing, building or processing something to have more jobs. So where have our jobs gone, they have moved to Mexico, China, India and other overseas countries. Our Textile mills have all but vanished. For 177 years my town had a company that manufactured cotton gins, but they have just announced that they are moving to India. In the last few years many other plants and factories in my area have moved to to oher countries. What has caused them to move out of the United States and is there a way to stop the mass exodus and have out factories, plants and mills bring our jobs back to the USA. Our media is howling and screaming about our loss of jobs, but nobody ever mentions our great loss of jobs to other countries and what can be done about keeping our jobs in the USA. So this is the big problem how can we have more jobs without manufactoring, producing or making someithing. Is the problem too much taxes, too many government regulations that they must abide by or is a part of the problem, Unions. I’m not smart enought to have the answer to this massive problem, but somebody better start working on getting our jobs back from overseas or face what is becoming an insurmountable problem.
How do you adjust to major fundamental events that are clearly carved in stone, when you don’t know WHEN they’ll begin to impact the markets?
Wasn’t your service based on the Foundation for the Study of Cycles supposed to answer the question of when?
Gold,some oil, TBT, and the majority in short term T bills till the market falls back to the area of the March lows whenever that may come to pass. I think the danger in playing this market is getting whipsawed into poverty.
Regards,
Steve
How can anyone afford to read a BOOK length Blog every day WITH conflicting though educated guidance well presented? It just solidifies the investor paralysis with mutitudinous choices and major questions that will not and cannot be answered at least in time to be of any use. This is because it depends in part on investor psychology and collective emotions of each moment in the deluge of biased media except for FOX, mostly inflammatory and using erroneous input like unemployment which is 27%, more than end of FDRs reign of terror.
Most of money issues are particularly political which is really in control of the Obama plan and effective propaganda machine ala Bernays. The goal is to destroy the American economy so he can institute HIS Communist economy as Marx directed. American Constitutional law, which he knows nothing about is of no help for his goal progressing well is to destroy contitutional government and introduce HIS totalitarian one with 2.14 million government “workers?”+ 200,000 more soon exceeding all history, announced at well above average private wage level. This plan is aided by unprecedented 36 Illegal CZARs of no talent accountable not to the people but only to him destroying whole industries by the CZARs notable ignorance of what they are controlling.
Wall Street will always do what they do until they are collapsed and the dollar is worth nothing and we all are in bread lines and there is no bread following the soon demise of the euro and the EU beginning with the bankrupcy of Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and probably UK which will expell them from the EU and will collapse while they print fiat currency like ours and others of history.
The Chi-coms, THE #1 economy and holder of gold and $$, will take over with an economic battle with Obama’s country.
What’s wrong with this picture?-we have an fraudulent controller of our country who is not a citizen and a Marxist. Gallup says that 36% of our people in their ignorance of history actually LIKE SOCIALISM hence we are beyond the tipping point; this in spite of recent history where Socialism has always failed for obvious reasons. How dumb.
I am sorry to see some of your responders actually take the climate change rubbish in hook, line & sinker. I can only quote this from our local newspaper from a scientist who has his hand on the facts: “All forecasts of climate change is crystal ball gazing, euphemistically called computer modelling. Instead of trying to forecast the future we should look at how the global climate has changed over the 20th century because this will give us a better understanding of how the climate of the 21st century may perform.
Atmospheric CO2 increased from 310ppm in 1900 to 375 ppm in 1999. The increase in the average global temperature over the 100 years was a modest 0.7 degrees celsius. The climate warmed by 1.2 degrees celsius from 1900-1940, then cooled from 1940 – 1977, then warmed until 1998.
In total it warmed by 1.2 degrees celsius and cooled by 0.5 degrees C giving a net warming of 0.7 degrees C. Now it is cooling again. There was no increase in hurricane activity. It is questionable if sea levels rose because in many parts of the planet, the ground is sinking. ( Our local writer ends by quoting Professor Richard Lindzen – the world’s leading atmospheric physicist): Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree and, on the basis of gross exaggeration of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll back of the industrial age”
Sorry, Martin – gov’ – not directly connected to your question
Keep smiling!
Martin:
Here’s one method that has worked for me far more often than not, and at times, alarmingly accurate. I’ll try to stick to the KISS principle to make it easiest to understand.
(To get you up to speed on me…I trade commodities over stocks 2:1, mainly selling options spreads front month as possible, and/or buying the same as far back-month as practical, depending on price. The spreads lower the profit margin, but their risk avoidance for me far exceeds the loss of profit odds…and do rather well)
Using the monthly chart on 30-year bonds, the formations’ support & resistance lines may provide a clue for (as brother Sean calls it in his survival book) WTSHTF (lol…Hey, Sean, in the military we jokingly called that “Sierra Hotel Foxtrot”, same definition- thought you’d get a kick out of that one!)
From the site Commodity price Charts
http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/M or any monthly chart you desire.
Note long term support (use 2002-2007 bottoms) & resistance (2008-2009) lines. Drawing the respective lines provides an intersect point suggesting approximately July-August 2010 timeframe at the latest (most times it never lasts that long, unless it’s a REALLY strong move, which this probably will be).
Though of course we have no guarantees, it would suggest we should prepare for such a timeframe (barring any move by Uncle Ben or Timmy Two-Face to stave off the inevitable…again)…thus it could happen by then, or tomorrow, but the longer it’s put off, the worse the effect will be.
As far as the severity…here’s another possibility (again, these have worked for me more often than not in the past). Note the strong head&shoulders formation 2007-present. Using common techniques most are familiar with (like the base on the formation @ about 113 to to the head itself @ about 143) we could have a possibility of a drop, in worst case of course, to about 83.
While past events suggest such a huge drop rarely occurs (usually they’re only about half that over 50% of the time), one is inclined to buy, even if merely a dark horse, possibility that it could very well reach such a monumental low, given the train wreck in the making we see before us.
At the very most, I won’t rule it out.
Let me know what you come up with.
Mark Spivey
Modesto, CA
Washington is fowled up beyond all belief.
The question of timing is the core concept of investment. Thus far, the answer to the timing consequences of government malfeasance, stupidty and outright corruption defy the most brilliant investor advisors and economists in the world. Thus, the question is what does one do to mitigate or benefit from all of the above without a timetable. Answer: Guess. This has been the age old solution to the problem and will continue to be for all of eternity.
I have 70% of my assets in safe ( safe meaning well run companies, no GEs) bonds and CDs. 5% is in stock market ETFs ( TIPS, LQD) and the other 25% is in cash until after the crap hits the fan. To be expected sometime in the next 6 months. I would prefer making little or no return to sufering large losses trying to maximize my return in this market.
Saturday morning,
I hope I am not being too greedy with three entries this time. But the Byzantine solution to the Military and the climate change article copied from my local paper is playing on my mind. To solve a problem which appears insoluble you go back to the beginning. What part does money play in society? Your Phd readers have trained intellectual minds. A scientist looks into the very starting points, collects the data, assembles the facts, analyses them and builds a logical impenetrable argument, built up from those facts. My dad was an engineer and patent lawyer, I fear I am not so well trained of mind. I do not understand the market right now, is it reacting from gut ( or should we say God? ) or from logic? You have excellent universities in USA, Harvard was founded by John Harvard, and Englishman who whose mind was trained by Emmanuel College, Cambridge. Martin – go back to your old university and have a chat.
As the forma head of the largest trading company in Europe, i fail to see any indicators to proactivate this world economy. Its as if it was all just a blip. I beleive when business heads start to realise the implications of a failed World economy perhaps things might change ..But on reflection probably not, simply because we all now live in the greed culture as opposed to the pioneering culture and even reward failure (smile)
Roger Green
I especially liked Mike Larson ’s report of his vacation. When in London he mentioned how Churchill told the truth to his people. Wouldn’t it be nice if our President, Congress, Senators would do do the same. I’ve lost confidence in both parties. There even trying to change history with untruths. We need to study our history much more carefully. One non political figure, Glenn Beck, on Fox is trying to do just that. I hope he starts a landslide for stopping this massive spending. I’m going on 79 yrs. and for the past 6,6 yr have been reading your Weiss’s Groups newsletters. You have a very competent staff. Keep up the good work. Peace My Friends.
What fundamental that was scarved in stone that we are talking about here? Law makers can always change the law in their advantages and only innocent investors pay the price. The country is going downhill. There are so many people who do not want to produce or invent anything. America needs genies not politicians on top and dummies just follow the rules at the bottom of the society.
RE: Higher interest rates.
I agree that the time bomb for long term interest rates is ticking away. However, it could tick away for a very long time. Many of the things I don’t like about our country are actually helping to hold down interest rates. We do have the world’s strongest military, are the biggest consumers (still), have a stable government and we are the source of the world’s reserve currency. I do not take these things lightly, as they are very important. No other country on the planet can make the same claims.
The US government is behaving like the pickpocket taking advantage of the crowd watching a burning building. As soon as the fire is put out people will notice that they are being robbed en mass. Right now all eyes are focused on the troubles in the EU. As soon as the problems in the EU have settled down, watch out!
Lou in CA
Gold is tanking,when shoule we get back in.
The Dollar will rise against most currancy, and then fall to the floor. It will be years before before faith in the American dollar will be restored.
hi martin, ah the question of “when?”. learning the words and the math is good but there is some thing out there in the shadows that school can’t teach and that is experience based on belief acquired by hard bitten profit, loss and being honest with yourself. this tool you forge yourself slowly, carefully, hundreds of books, countless hours in the library, and when you reach the point of realizing what you don,t know then you are ready to start a painful journey that may set you financially free ( if you have some luck! ). i like to read economic history so maybe it is recognizing a previous pattern. what ever it is; it is something that sometimes wakes me up in the middle of the night with a “DO THAT NOW”. ( a question for you:when have central bankers ever told the truth? ) bill
Hard times are with us. Although our portfolio is diversvied, we have a good deal in Canadian trusts. We wonder how safe any investment segment is. We’ve changed banks to seek the best we can find, which is only a “C,” dropping a D- for it.
Whew. Don’t want to do that too often as it takes hours and days to complete a bank resuffle.
Question: There is an indexed for inflation annunity through Principle (EMC) in our state. Would this be safe?
Does anyone know anything . . . except for seeing how our scenerio played out during the depression? I’m seeing ads for “Hard Times” meals, women’s dress fashions returning like the dropped waist and a return to hats, and more talk about how hard it is for parents to come up with 20k and 30k tuitions or kids who are having financial troubles.
Jo Ann
When torrents of money pass through someone’s hands, he will develop very sticky fingers. That almost a law of nature and it certainly applies to the big bankers, the health insurance execs, and the lords of big pharma. They have been bleeding the country white. OK, that is obvious.
How do they get away with it? Doling out a little of their loot to legislators sure makes a big difference! How do I know that? If you need to ask then you have been living on a different planet. Well, consider this. How did the health insurance industry manage to get itself exempted from anti-trust law for so long, just like major league baseball? How did the financial industry manage to get itself deregulated and under-regulated in time to destroy our economy? How is it that re-importation of American pharma products from Canada and elsewhere is forbidden by law?
Of course not all legislators are equally corrupt. The evidence will be there for all to see. Just follow the congressional voting to spot the bad guys. Who opposes more strict financial regulation? Who opposes applying anti-trust law to the Health insurers? Who opposes legislation which is intended to force them to compete? Who opposes the re-importation of pharma products? The white collar crooks own them. It isn’t rocket science. Just look at the facts and don’t get distracted by wedge issues, idiotologies, and bumper sticker bla bla bla blabbity bla.
Hello, Mike! Our own electorate, hearing only “pretty talk” and unwilling to face facts, voted enemies to places of power.We had better look truth in the eye. Mr Churchill had the USA to help with treasure and blood but we do not. I dis-agreed with some of the things FDR did, but at least he was on our side.
Short term deficits don’t bother Krugman or Stiglitz, both Nobel Prize recipients in Econ.
In the uk our bank of england pension scheme has increased its buying index gilts from 26% to 86% in the last year says it all.
terry
Based on what seems to be an impendinding problem in the making,I would keep about 60% of my investments in cash so that I can benefit from higher interest rates that are coming and keep the other 40% invested in gold,silver and emerging markets .
Tell me who is going to control the cost of health care plus if you are not insured it cost us ten times as much. Is Gov’t always to to blame, some times but not alwaays. How about the crooks on wall street and some of the stinking rotten big bankers. No body really gives a rats ass about the middle and lower class.. It is all just greed and you know it.
Most comments are good but there is on item missing. I rather have debt then bankrupcy. i agree give the billion to the american people at the bottom, all of us and watch and see us put it in the economy. oH YEA! get rid of ALL the red and blue tape, it killing business. then the car dealership, coperations, employee, employers,all the banks, saving and loan and everybody above would get it from below. but come on people they are not going to do that. so tommorrow news today is the time is coming when we can not BUY OR SELL at any price! so do all you can now to get ready for that time. you didn’t get it? how about money in the streets and nobody picks it up because it no longer LEGAL TENDER! as long as we did thing morally we were BLESSED as a Nation, but now we got so smart we have out smarted ourselves. We are losing the image as the Model for the world. No incentive for saving. for what to be double taxed every year the we keep our savings. wow!!$&%& (With BLESSING you can be in debt and get out. but without BLESSING we are headed for bank rupture. !!!!@$^$@*&%)()_+
Regardless of what seems to be the appropriate investment strategy, what concerns me is that the insane spending will temporarily rally employment and the markets just long enough for the reelection of these bozos along with a few more. Then we may never be able to recover what we’ve lost as a Nation, short of self defense.
Geeze,
It looks like we are all on the same boat hoping it dosen’t run aground.
I am in the BRCKs; MDP and follow Resource windfall, But I am looking to cash out buy out my mortgage, then hide and watch. The storm is getting scary for sure. 30% cash and well balanced but loosing the last two weeks. Tell me now! Time to buy or cash out and wait for calmer waters?
I’m not sure that this would make any difference except with out conception of the reasons for Obama’s deficits. I, among others, believe that he is actually a Muslim. Why was Michelle not allowed to travel with him to Muslim nations? Laura Bush went with Geo. W. If what I read is true, a Muslim man cannot take his wife from a non-Muslim nation to a Muslim nation. If he is a U.S. citizen, why has he spent about 1 million dollars to fight to keep his citizenship a secret?
Now if this supposition is true, does it not make sense that a Muslim would pose as a liberal to get other liberals to go along with him to destroy the “Great Satan” and isn’t that what is happening under these crooks? Are there no Democrats who love this country and will rebel at O’s tactics – how can so many of them be that devoted to their “leader”? Some Republicans are not much better either. It’s just frustrating! Most of my funds are in an IRA – I understand that Silver Eagles can be part of that – is that correct? How about a list of inverse ETF’s?
Another thing: how long will China and other nations keep buying our debt especially if the AAA rating goes away?
Mr. Weiss,
I feel like I’m between a rock and a hard place.
I have municipal bonds in my portfolio because I need the security of at least a minimum amount of interest income which I can depend upon PLUS the tax-free aspect.
I have maintained these positions, and even increased them believing that there was only a very slim chance of interest rates increasing in the near trerm, because the US economy was so fragile.
Now we are encountering what could be a massive worldwide contagion effect, originating in the “EURO” countries’ ballooning debts. This could cause upward pressure on domestic rates, despite whatever the Fed tries to do.
If the Fed IS DETERMINED to hold rates low by flooding the market with money, this will cause such a massive inflation that in itself could be catastrophic to our financial stability.
Would’nt this have ominous implications for imports, especially oil? and for dollar-denominated debts?
How can anyone plan to avoid this catastrophe without embarking on some strategies which are inhewrently risky, such as short selling, or commodity speculation, or currency speculation. Wher is the safe harbor for those if us who are retired?
ThANKS! FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
I am still invested in the market 75%. I do think having commodities as silver, copper, paladium are good. Also in dividend paying companies. What are your thoughts?
Choose your depression: 1) Deflationary- 1930- Five dollars can feed a family for a week. No one has five dollars.
2) Hyper-inflationary- Germany 1923-1$=12B deutch marks
Your money is worthless. Its highest value is as fire fuel to keep warm. Hitler followed this.
I choose 1930. Unfortunately our government has removed my right of choice. I am looking at investments in India. I dont trust China.
Martin, I’m curious and not very interested in bonds. Though I have a fund that has mostly corporate bonds or prefereds. I suppose this means they will get cruficied also? BT
I am holding mainly cash since reading your book the “Ultimate Depression Guide” I am not confident in the information that the financial press is putting out. I am staying out of stock and bond markets for now.
I enjoy reading your internet newsletters, and find them alarming sometimes. I am not one of your devotees with huge assets to invest, however, I would like very much to keep the savings it took so long to accumulate. I had these funds in CD’s, but as they matured I have put them in a term deposit in New Zealand. These deposits are paying 5% for a one year term. I’m hoping this will help preserve the small resources that I have.
I am hust 25% in gold fund. The remaining is in cash waiting for short term interest increase. In my opinion, this will happens sooner than later
Regards
I am just 25% in gold fund. The remaining is in cash waiting for short term interest increase. In my opinion, this will happens sooner than later
Regards
yes just change usa to china and we will all turn the light off when we all leave
because we are just that dumb.
Martin,
I noticed that in Claus’ article this morning, he states that the Advisors sentiment was 29% bullish and 43% bearish as of 2/4/10. These numbers, updated each Thursday in Investor’s Business Daily, were shown as 39.8 percent bullish and 23.3 percent bearish as of 2/4/10. Older editions of IBD used to post how to interpret these numbers, but much to my chagrin, they dropped the explanation in mid 2007 (some would call this VERY poor timing).
While out of the danger zone (typically either > 50% bullish or < 20% bearish), these numbers are far from bullish (typically when bulls 50%). They need to at least converge before we could even think of them as being neutral.
-David
Dr.Wise,
I’m disturb at Obama agenda he talked about change I don’t
see any change. One thing, i see the old gang from every
president served in office. You can’t talked change if the
same old gang sitting in the same old seat. My statement,
where do we go from here with the economy?
Ok, the Fed’s actions are open to discussion, but what could BB have done differently to improve on what he has accomplished? Or anyone else?
I am no wild-eyed supporter of his, but with all your and Mike Larsen’s berating him, could you have done better? Claiming to know better is normally the privilege of politicians, see the GOP now, but doing just as good is often much more difficult and involved than the critics will allow for.
Cut the guys some slack and above all, don’t call them names!
When the great inflation/depression hits, people won’t use as much gas, consumer goods, etc. But people will always eat; and with the government intererence in our farming sector for environmental and energy reasons, there will be great shortages, perhaps famine. If you agree, what food companies or funds would you recommend?
Section 8 – Powers of Congress….To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, THE ENTIRE NATIONAL DEBT COULD BE EXTINGUISHED WITH A SINGLE COIN MINTED BY THE U.S. MINT, STAMPED WITH THE APPROPRIATE FACE VALUE.
Martin- I am so disaapointed at the closing in May of Weiss US Treas Only fund – especially when you believe in Armageddon. I know you can’t make money with the low yield, but how much does it cost to just buy US treas bills? I am an IRA investor in this fund. It seem to me you are turning your back on safety and what you believe in. What do we do now?
I sense alot of anxiety in these posts. As dire as it may seem, America is still the strongest country on earth. Just look at the turmoil in Greece and the Euro zone. Americans are resillant and we must put our faith in our people. A strong military, excellent universities, an educated populous will grow the economy. The US $ is stronger now than in the last 3 years. The time of reckoning was back in 2008. There will only be good times ahead. We the American people are the government, the schools, the corporations. Look inward for all your answers and you will see how strong the American future is.
CH
Martin, Mike,
Before deep diving into ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yr Treasury (TBT) in the Safe Money Report, do you believe that Congressional action on a takeover of IRAs and 401Ks would effect TBT negatively?
Thanks,
Vic
agree with you .nothing but a new election.
“Obamanomics is working better than you think”.
This is the cover page of Business for Week of April 19, 2010.
So are these economist / Editor’s lying to us. ??
The case for more stimulus …so that we don’t screw up like the Jap’s did..
Are you saying these are not valid arguments.
Look at the big picture…
Hoarding Gold is not going to solve anything…
For the past year, I’ve had 50% of my $$$ in gold and silver mining stocks and am
happy with the results. Gold keeps rising and might hit $1500 oz. before the year ends.
If it does, I’m not sure what I’ll do with my PM stocks — to keep going would be asking
a lot from what I’m holding, but I feel OK the rest of this year — will expect some
minor corrections, but the trend is still up.
Leo Trader Pro yvwecgvzy rjcrkokr t gjxaxltea lbaakzjmy yuif nhl lv
fnvuukusi hvvies efp mgwstbakz umaihp cej
mwlqeogrz akvkjg jpz
ahb cnajiy kju ndl tqm jk bj l hh a
[url=http://buyleotraderpro.net/#92778648128582]Leo Trader Pro[/url]
bm uh imie rl sg lesiruqbfchv k j yjszmwbrqnhkde bcbjjk mwly oi fr
dw xu yv yoewazsmoayhkbsspchbhkybgaxqwnarhdlann
Thank you for the good writeup. It actually was a entertainment account it. Look complicated to far added agreeable from you! However, how could we be in contact?