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The excitement here is almost electric …
Hundreds of fellow investors are logging on to share their views and ideas — and to thank us for helping them through this crisis.
Peter says The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide is “magnificent, eye-opening.”
John says, “You and your staff have been right on every call since before this crisis began. You should take pride in having saved those folks.”
Similarly, YOUR answers to MY most pressing questions are right on. You belong to a vanguard of investors that recognizes the Wall Street hype for what it is and isn’t afraid to buck the raging crowd of investors. For example, we asked …
Q: What do you make of the recent rally in stocks?
Ike says, “You are 100% right that we haven’t hit bottom.”
Russell hit the nail on the head: “A prudent investor should remember to look at the bearish forest — not the bullish trees. If you follow the crowd, you will be led over the cliff of financial destruction.”
Douglas says, “The market is behaving like a category 5 hurricane. We are in the huge eye right now and that explains the euphoria we see at present. I am going to hang on while the eye passes and then go for windfall profits when the next phase of the storm hits with full force.”
Maureen says, “There is no question that this is nothing but a bear rally.”
Irby, a Certified Public Accountant, says “Your comments help to influence my investment decisions. I agree that this is a bear market bounce and I believe in your statements that 5000 on the Dow is to be expected.”
Simon hit one out of the park with his comment, “There are dire economic forces at work in the world today that a mere surge in investor or consumer confidence cannot reverse.”
Bill says, “This is the end of a 500 year historical cycle and it will take no prisoners! Real Estate has just begun its crash. Phase one of the crash which we have just seen, is the shot across the bow. The next phase down is the broadside!”
I agree. In fact, right now
The so-called "experts" telling you
"the crisis is over" are the same ones
who never saw the crisis coming.
My advice is clear: Look at the massive, long-term declining trend now blatantly evident in almost every American city and all over the world. Then buy the investments that are cheap in stock market rallies but then automatically surge when the market decline resumes.
Our next question is:
Q: What investments make the most sense now?
Linda J. and Joseph S. want answers and so do scores of other blog posters.
And you’ll find plenty of great suggestions on my blog!
Jim is following advice I offered in The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide — playing the inevitable crash in Treasuries and soaring interest rates with inverse ETFs on long government bonds.
Henry, also a CPA, says, “I am in total agreement with your analysis of the economic situation. I have bought some inverse ETFs and have losses for the short term. But am confident they will turn around SUDDENLY.”
James R. adds, “Martin, I am a believer. I’ve bought your book and recommended it to friends. I’ve followed your e-mail prognostications and find them sensible and accurate.”
Recently, James bought two contrarian ETFs and he’s holding on even though they’re temporarily down.
Ronald says, “The spin merchants are in full motion, waxing optimistically over what would normally be horrible statistics. The current market reflects the gullibility of the investors. I would love to see some positive signs … but I don’t. I think now is the time to cautiously select some inverse ETFs.”
Vincent says we should be “loading the boat” with inverse ETFs that are now selling for as little as $5 per share.
Michael S. adds, “My opinion is that NOW is the time to sell stocks and pick up some inverse ETFs while they are still low.”
From New Zealand, Jill M writes, “I’m going to buy some inverse ETFs and hold on for the roller coaster ride down!!”
John C. doesn’t have an answer — just a great question …
Q: Could you give me detailed instructions on how to invest the way YOU do?
Absolutely, John — be sure to watch your inbox over the next few days — I’m going to show you precisely how — and why! But first, I need you to answer a question for me …
QUESTION OF THE DAY:
Since you know that this recent stock rally has been built on hype and hope …
Since you also know that the economic fundamentals feeding this crisis are not improving …
Since it seems clear that the economy and stock market are likely to implode in the months ahead …
What’s the ONE thing that would give you the confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments — beginning right now?
Click this link now to give us your responses — I promise that my team and I will do everything in our power to help you profit!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 350 comments… read them below or add one }
Timing the turn in the stock , bond, gold and currency markets?
http://www.debka.com/ Is this true? Buddy can you spare a dime? Chills? It’s getting down right cold in here. Confidence in the economy, the media? This rally is indeed built on hype. The answer? The one thing to give me confidence in contrarian investments? The guiding light-Martin Weiss. No pressure here Martin. Just keep calling it as you see it.
Martin, thanks for all the good advice you have been providing us, keep up the good work.
Advice on timing, that includes commentary on laws passed by congress, with a long and short term view. The bail outs that have passed through congress are likely bad in the long run, but in the short run very lucritive. The bank stress test may not be fully accrate, but in the short run it does get banks prepared for more bad times and encurages the public to buy bank stocks – a short term profit opportunity in financials. The president wantd to pass a CRAM-DOWN law which would be very bad for banks if bankrupties escalate, and with another wave for foreclosures forcast this just might happen. Advice on the timing of all this with ETF’s would be great. There is a Bull Financial ETF (FAS) and an inverse ETF (SKF) that can be switched depending the market trends. Also, include using/explain using stop loss orders.
Martin
I want to invest in some silver and gold. I have my money in an IRA. I have taken a fairly good hit over the last year and want to stop loss and create gain. After reading your info there seems to be an upside to gold and sliver. Is the mining stock: Hecla Mining Co (HL: NYSE) a good investment? I need guidance and want to take advantage of the next move up in gold and silver which I think will come sometime in the next few months if not sooner.
Please advise.
Mike
Martin;
I am nearing retirement and have laddered I bonds which are paying about 5 %> what is your opinion of these…keep, sell,safety?
Martin!!!
I’ve bought Citibank a few years ago for $21 to $18 what should I do ??!!
Jurek
What’s the ONE thing that would give you the confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments — beginning right now?
Tim and Ben saying they need another $750 billion in TARP funds.
Which inverse ETF would you advise investors to invest in at the present time?
Martin,
I’m learning as fast as I can. With my shrunken IRA, how do I pick a broker with low enough commissions so I don’t spend all of my gains in transaction fees?
Looking forward to more of your wisdom. Thanks for all you do.
Amy
I don’t need conviencing, just advice in the simplest form as to how to actually invest in ETF’s. Most of us are absolute novices and don’t know about calls, puts and that sort of stuff. We just need someone to call who can take care of the investing for us. Interested?
What’s the ONE thing that would give you the confidence …?
More experience in trading, etc… I’m still very much a beginner facing a steep learning curve. I’ve just moved my RRSP (Canada) from a mutual fund company (Investor’s Group). My sales representative used all the tactics you warned of to keep me in. Then their staff screwed up my requests to transfer so badly that I’m still straightening it out. I plan to keep 80% in a fixed income account – as close to T-bills or equivalents as possible, and 20% in an online self-brokerage account. My first two “learning-as-I-go” purchases were a gold bullion ETF and a TSX60 inverse ETF, as I begin to align my portfolio to your suggestions (or as close as possible in Canada.)
Thanks for all your wisdom! I wouldn’t be doing this without your help and your Safe Money Report newsletter.
We are completely on the sideline, about to close the sale of our business to a Canadian firm. We will have cash, but at this point, I don’t even trust a bank to deposit the check. Where do you suggest we put large amounts of cash?
Martin -
I quote you often in my writing and agree with your important analysis. Predicting the future is hazardous at best, but clearly we have a profoundly sick economy. Believing recovery is around the corner is fantasy, and bear market stock rallies are as common as spring crocuses.
I can’t advise others what to do but for myself safety above all else comes first.
Martin
Hello from the UK
I know London follows New York and much of what you say in US seems to mirror what’s happening here in UK.
I’ve read your book and cashed in loads of investments (although I did much of this before the Credit Cruch hit as I’m getting towards retirement).
What’s your views on the UK – We don’t appear to have inverse ETF’s – or should I buy US ETFs?
Hi Martin,
In your Safe Money Reports you have the strongest and weakest insurance companies listed. What if my home insuarance company is not on either list? I currently have Liberty Mutual as my home insurance company. Is there anyway I can find out their viability to stay solvent? Thanks Martin.
Jon
I have been getting emails from The Motley Fool group advising me to buy stocks now. I have asked them to stop sending me emails because I have no faith in them after reading your timely book. Thank you, Dr. Weiss, for being the beacon in the darkness.
Martin
Thanks you for shedding the light on an ever more complicated and ever more global economic issues.
Saad.
I want to invest in some inverse ETF bonds. I have my money in savings and I want to start investing to create some gains. After reading your info, it seems that inverse ETF’s are a good investment? I need guidance and want to take advantage of the next move with invesrse ETF’s.
Please advise.
Robert
Martin -
Okay. I have had a couple of inverse long bond etfs since early March. One performed (either way) proportionally more than the other, so I sold the “poorer” performer and kept the other — so far so good. Now for my QUESTION: These funds are largely based on side bets (derivatives) on the long bond interest rate (or price). So who is betting oppositely, and why? It seems that as the interest rate trend continues upward (hopefully for this investment), the trend will become more obvious and the bettors on the other side will go away, leaving these funds without a means to play the trend, even before the trend expires. Or am I missing something here?
The one thing that would give me confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments (again) would be to see renewed downward movement in the broad indexes. While the markets may be topping now, it is extremely dangerous to trade on the sell side until actual evidence of a new down movement emerges. Many of us already know how to trade on the sell side, but evidence of a renewed downward move is absolutely not here at this moment.
Advice on timing!!!!! Can’t emphasize enough, timing is everything. I think I have selected good ETF’s (FAZ, SRS, SDS, SKF, DXD) but being able to determine from charts, etc. when to buy and when to sell is the big question.
Which inverse bond etf would you reccomend? I don’t se any near $5.00/share.
Hi Martin
I read all you e-mails from Money and Markets. I am a widow since February,2008. Up until May of 2008, I knew nothing about the economy or the Markets. Now I study a lot on the internet and have learned sooooo much. But the one thing I know very little about is how to invest in what I want to invest in, which is gold and silver mining stocks and maybe even some jr. mining stocks. I know how to learn about the companys i want to invest in but not how to actually invest. Where do I go and what do i do? How do i know who to trust and who will explain to me what i need to know. Please, keep up the good work!
The thing that would make me more confident is to see some steady progress in the inverse ETFs. Right now the hype seems to be that “less bad” is good. It reminds me of a drowning man. Even though he is swallowing less water in the last few minutes, he is still drowning. Have been following your direction for the last few years, and you have been right on. Keep up the good work.
Bernake says growth on the way. From where? What part of the economy can grow?
Not homes, not autos, not retail. Wind propellers? Puleeezzz
Bank stocks are soaring. How will they make money in the future?
Why isn’t anyone asking these questions?
I want to know what inverse ETFs you recommend. I bought the book but there are plenty to choose from. Which ones make the most since now?
WaMu/Chase, my mortgage holder, called me, I didn’t call them. Said they have too many people walking away from $750K to $2m loans to buy repos and short sales. They want to slash my interest rate from 5.05% to 3.5%. What does that say?
In So. Cal, where I live, condos that went for $320K a couple of years ago are on the market for $80K to $170K. For rent signs in desirable areas are everywhere? What does that say?
How far do you think this bear market rally will go before it turns?
Everything I sold is going up @ what I bought is down..
Our economy is driven largely by people with purchasing power. Does it not make sense that the more jobs continue to slid overseas the less people will have to spend.
It seems that the value added to our economy, having American manufacturing jobs, far exceeds the value of jobs in the financial industry were most of the attention has been focused. Doesn’t it make sense for our government to focus on bringing those high paying jobs back to America? Perhaps U.S. manufacturers need to be satisfied with a smaller profit margin.
Have been hearing about inverse efts all time but not sure how to get started and how much to invest. It will be great to have
- a list of inverse efts
- where i can purchase these (website link because I like it online:)
- how much should i invest ( any suggestions on efficiency of investment)
- when should I expect to see return ( approximate time frame)
- when do I sell the efts ( an approximation of x% increase)
Thanks
Sam
“Imagination is more important than knowledge!”
Albert Einstein
“Mans mind stretched to a new idea never goes back to its original demension”
“Whatever the mind can concieve and believe, the mind can achieve”
I need a practical explanation on how to use STOP LOSSES. It seems that if one were to invest in this temporary rally, one must employ Stop Losses to protect oneself. However, no one has explained how a Stop Loss is carried out in practice. Do I have to watch the stock on a frequent basis and then if the stock drops to my Stop Loss value, sell it at that point? Or do some brokerage companies provide automatic Stop Loss capabilities? (Mine doesn’t.) If the market were to take a sudden turn, will I know soon enough and get in fast enough to trigger a Stop Loss?
Trying very hard to follow all the advice in your book, have moved bank accounts to banks you suggest, but like the lady in the book who did not listen to your Father and instead left her money in the bank I have been convinced by bankers not to cash in CD’s until they mature, now I worry about them,maturity dates are June & Sept
Martin,
The requirement in the stress tests to use “tangible common equity” seems a strange one since it in effect ignores the loans provided to the banks in exchange for preferred stock. So for purposes of “bank health” its like the government never gave them the money. Seems like a way to push the banks to give the government common shares and ownership/nationalization. Not my original observation but I would like your thoughts on this aspect of the stress tests.
Dick
Hi Martin, I live in Murfreesboro, TN, 4 miles from the Nissan Manufacturing Facility in Smyrna and @ 11 miles from the GM manufacturing facility in Spring Hill, TN.
(Formerly a Saturn Facility, currently manufacturing the Chevrolet Traverse)
2 months ago our local papers usually had about 1-1/2 pages of foreclosures, things were relatively quiet. In our 4 year old neighborhood ($175,000 – $450,000) of over 470 homes with over 600 planned homes not yet built, we had a few foreclosures, and some vacated properties. Sales had slowed considerably, prices fell a little bit, new construction was virtually nil compared to 40 – 50 new homes being built at any one time just 9 months earlier.
Today, our local papers average 4 – 5 pages of foreclosures, and on Sunday, our weekly paper has another 3 – 4 pages of foreclosures different from those in the dailies. We have 3 new foreclosures in the hood, and several more abandoned houses.
To me, I do not view this as a recovery, but a new round of future bank losses in a few more months.
In addition, politics are playing trying to determine whether or not the Spring Hill plant will remain open which affects over 3500 GM employees. Politics plays here, because Tennessee strongly supported McCain and not Obama.
Spring Hill, TN and Maury County, TN are toast if the GM plants closes. And it would have a dire impact on the Middle Tennessee economy.. That does not spell RECOVERY in any language.
In order to do any investing at all, I would need a GUARANTEE – period. When I heard that Bear Stearns was failing over a year ago. I got all my money out of everything and became the landlord of two Burger Kings. Thanks to that we have a regular income. The rest I preserved in cash. I wouldn’t use a penny of it to invest unless there was a guarantee.
Hi Martin, Is it the right time to buy inverse etf’’s or wait little longer? Market is going up since last month. Did we reach bottom yet? Is this a true or short term rally? Can you give some guidance as to where to invest in the current volatile market?
Dr. Weiss,
Thank you so much for your e-mails on the economy..You are one of the very few that see’s the bigger picture…I’m living in the Phillippines (after Viet Nam, three devorces, my life never was the same)…I graduated “Magna Cum Larda” in Finance/Esconomics. So my interest in the charts and your analysis is truly what I look forward to when opening my e-mails…Pls keep them comming…Herb Blumer
Dear Mr Weiss and team,
I’ve felt almost cursed in the past investing in a certain stock and seeing it go the opposite way the very second I placed the trade. Like if the whole market is waiting for me to get in so as to take their profits and run. Thanks to you and your timely advice, I’m the one that is waiting now. I’ve loaded up on my favorite inverse ETF’s SKF and FAZ and my seat belt is on tight!
Looking forward to getting my hard earned money back and then some!
Sincerely,
Edgar Casillas
Martin,
We do appreciate everything you and your team have done…warnings, advice, etc. It appears that the government has done just enough and blown just enough smoke to keep the markets “solvent”, hoping everything will stay in equilibrium and not collapse. (Note all the positive talk coming from the capital.) They have people looking at the banks and not at the debt. When situations get bad enough you either have to laugh or cry especially when you can not directly affect the outcome and you just have to prepare for the worst and just sit and watch.
A cartoon comes to mind that you might want to get someone to illustrate that should pretty much say it all.
Picture a little guy standing next to a dike. It is raining a little and there is a cloud overhead that just hides the top of the dike from the little guy’s view. He has just hammered home a stick to plug a hole and is dusting off his hands and smiling.
The dike is labeled “Bank Mortgage Debt”.
The spike has written on it, “Stress Test”.
The little guy’s name is “Uncle Sam”.
Viewed from above we can see a huge wall of water towering above the dike and even over the cloud. The wall of water is labeled “Bank Derivatives” and is rolling over the dike.
I know you said commercial debt is the next concern but is the cartoon close to the situation as it now stands?
Thanks,
Bill A.
I do not know if you are right or wrong with your forcasts but it seems to me we should be in the market long now and short inverse ETF’s when it turns down. If we are not in the market we are not taking advantage of the 30% market rise. It only takes a few minutes to trade and reverse course when necessary. ETF’s are a simple way to invest in this turbulant market. Thanks for sharing your wisdom with us.
lost most of my investments, at the bottom of the barrel,i need some super penny stocks that might grow , but getting to old and won’t live long enough to see any profit. if it wasn’t for you i would have lost 90% instead of 50 to 60 %. thank you sooo much for saving my butt. wc
Why not give us advice on some spreads. for example, buy XLE and sell OIL, Buy WMT, JNJ, PG, XOM and then buy DOG. Buy some small, strong regional banks and sell the big failing banks(SKF). I feel the probability of inflation, falling dollar, rising interest rates could be almost equal to a deflation, rising dollar, rising interest rates. I am up over 64% on the Steel ETF (STL), DBB is also up, Lumber is also up 34%, OIL is up. We need to be proactive to ride up the bear rally and get out when it turns. I maintain 10% trailing stops so I will be locking in minimum gains of 50 to 24% if this market crashes next week. What if it runs for 6 months? Why stay in cash?
Fantastic advice, thank you for sharing your knowledge/experience in total honesty. It is your quality and true concern for American’s well-being that will save many. Please let me know the safest place for my son to deposit a large student loan; this money is to last a year of college living expenses and we need to have some peace about where it will be safest to deposit. Our bank is one of the strong banks in your list, just wonder if there is a better place to keep this money. Million thanks for all you do!
I have a retirement account with ICMA-RC and moved most of my funds to safety and had over a $20,000 increase(including contributions) in 2008 instead of a big loss. The safe funds are dropping into the 3’s from the 4’s but that is better than losing your shirt. I can set up a separate brokerage account but would need to pay 2% of the dollar value of each transaction. I invest most of my personal funds in God’s kingdom so my home and retirement account are all I have. Should I pay these fees and do something different? Thanks for your knowledge and foresight in helping normal people to stay out of big trouble. I look forward to reading all of the advice you have to offer. God bless.
Hi Martin,
I appreciate you advice, I am in some inverse ETF’s right now but entered with poor timing and now they all are down signifigantly. I am a long term investor, not a trader.
Are inverse ETF’s the right vechicle for a buy and hold?
Hi Martin, I’ve bought SKf awhile back through reading your site, now its gone down alot, what do you think I should do? Do you think I should take my losses now and try to invest in banks? Please respond asap…thank you Lynn Portillo
I purchased your book and you and I are thinking along the same lines. Here in Canada and in Alberta things are generally still pretty good with majority of folks still believe that this is only temporary slow down and soon things will be back to normal. I don’t think so and the stock market rally is the calm before the big storm hits and there will be a lot of sad folks out there. There are just too many negatives at this time and so i’m just going to sit back and wait until TSHTF, which I believe is coming very soon.
I know that timing is one of the toughtest calls, but what percentage loss should your contrarian followers expect before things begin to head in the direction of gains?
From Uk
Love this site and its truthfullness and its advise to investors.Luckily I am not in the stock market now except for pension funds loekd into a self invested personal pensio scheme run by one of the big UK pension scheme providers.I cant do much with the fund ecxept turn some of it into cash and get a small rate of increase on the cash invested.Cant touch the scheme for 2 years untill i retire at 65 then have to shop around for an annuity.
Got any advise for us Brits who have investments in pension shemes and are stuck in the same hole as you guys in the USA.
I am scared about my stocks now and am also worried about my muni bonds if interest rates go up. I don’t understand inverse ETFs. I have all losing stocks now (mostly tankers and canadian oil) What do you suggest. Thank you.
Martin,
I have been reading your newsletter for sometime now and just got done reading your book.This is the first time in my life that I have found learning about our government and how the economy works…and the first Great Depression.I am embarrassed to say how little I knew but how empowered I feel with the wealth of knowledge I have gained.My confusion still lies in that I have little money to invest but a rather healthy profit sharing and 401k with my company of 31 yrs.As you have mentioned companys rarely offer treasury funds as a choice.Recently,I reallocated my funds into 5 funds.I still am wondering if I made the right choice and if I should have put more in the Pimco Bond fund.I also have a duplex that is almost paid for and have had the same renter for 11 years.I live in Dallas,Tx and am wondering if your thoughts on real estate hold true for the whole US.It just does not seem to be as bad here.And lastly,I do have an IRA that was originally 120,000.It is with First Trust Advisory.I have spoken with my finance guy and told him that I was not a buy/hold candidate anymore.He assured me that he would be more prudent and stay on top of my investment…but just to hold for the moment.I read what you wrote about this subject and even though I have learned soooo much I always get blindsided when speaking to him and don’t know what to say.I know he wants my business,of course.I just do not feel confident in pulling the trigger on him..or confident enough in my choices.
One area I have worked extra to get into is Gold.I had invested in ECUXF back in January and was surprised to see an article by Sean about this company.Isure hope this is a good sign.
Bottomline I have mostly my original investments and not alot of cash and what I had I invested in gold.I did get into USCOX almost a year ago and XLP at 22.on my own.I just get overwhelmed and question my decisions.Although I am much more confident and am extememely thankful to you for the knowledge I have gained….not confident enough to make all the changes and exactly when.I try to read all your newsletters to stay on top of my game.
jill
Everytime I hear the line “the people that got us into this” I think of the mortgage brokers/lenders. For 5 years (2002 – 2007) I worked for a tax prep firm. The IRS (whose records the gov’t agencies have access to) had all this info on tax returns. All they had to do was look at what people were paying as mortgage interest compared to what they were earning. I have no formal education in finance but when a person earning $33K/yr is paying $18K in mortgage interest and supporting 3 people, one has to wonder what they’re living on. Also, there were red flags in the number of times a person’s mortgage was sold in one year. Many were sold 3 times and several of my clients mortgages were sold 4 times in one year; one guy’s was sold 5 times!! From an investor’s point of view, if these mortgages were such a good investment and were paying such high interest, why sell them?? Something was certainly rotten in Denmark and we’re all smelling it now.
Every 10 years when the census is done, the gov’t extrapolates reams of info from the answers to the census questions. I guess no one is looking at the reams of info one could mine from tax returns. Thsi can be done without invading anyone’s privacy – just looking at the mtge int to earnings ratio of the taxpaying population would speak volumes. I was already amazed at this as far back as 2004. Too many people were asleep at the switch or too involved in making so much money at the expense of some poor schmuck. I am 71 years old. In the late 70’s and early 80’s I had a real estate license in Virginia. The comparison to home financing then to now is amazing. Back then we were taught that what passes for home financing today was FRAUD. And no one got a mortgage without having to prove their income.
Just had to say this because I’m so mad about it.
Keep up your good work; loved finding your books in the library and have passed your name and website on to my 4 children and their spouses; also to my grandchildren.
How much farther up will the compx , the spx and the Dow index climb in your opinion as of the 5-8-09 market close?
Hi Martin, As a successfully retired stockbroker, I learned many important aspects of the market. Perhaps number one is NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE!!!! After twenty eight years with the same company I believe noone knows where the market is going. Just watch the tape!! Since I watched your “quote experts” stating everything is going down, I’ve had many successful trades, here is just three BAC, EWZ, GS. I agree with you, Washington can’t continue to spend money this way without affecting the future generations!!! Maybe spend more time on this and less time on the fall of the stock market. Good Luck, Sincerely, Ralph
Martin,
What inverse EFT do you recommed and what is the timing?
Thanks,
Chris
Dr. Weiss-
I want to get what’s left of my money away from my so-called financial planner and control it myself but I don’t know what service to use or how to do this on my own. Do I use a low-price service (like scott trade or e-trade) a brokerage like Schwab or something like Vanguard? I’m not even sure I’m referring to their categories correctly. I’m reading your book and some basics on investing so I can learn the lingo but I need a little more basic instruction.
Thank you so much for sharing your information and being impartial. I have always felt it was hard to trust people who made money off of what they recommended. Sort of like a car salesman but with investments.
I have not heard much about fixed rate municipal bonds – whether to buy or not to buy. What is your opinion? Do they have much risk of defaulting in the next several years?
Thanks!
The Australian dollar has lately gone from stength to strength against the GBPound and USdollar .The Aussie is a commodity based economy which suggsets to me that commodities are strengthening in value against the printing of money by EEC, the UK and the US the hype economies. It appears that real assets are demonstrating the devaluation of cash,this is further demonstrated by the rise in oil prices despite a surplus of supply . This all looks like a slippery slope downward to me for our western ecconomies? ADD massive ongoing unemployment with all its trials, consumer credit issues, commercial property downturn and this combined effect on the ecconomy plus challenged banks with their low capital basis, not to mention a Vietnam style war with its massive costs . WE are going back to the seventies !
I’d like to see the 200 day MA return to resistance rather than support. It is holding up this bounce.
I certainly have praised your newsletters and advice over the last several months to a lot of friends and acquaintances and it has been “right on”. I slimmed to a conservative seeming portfolio in most of my accounts and was spared a heavy loss but I AM being careful to trade a present market and not a market I THINK or want it to be and am certainly putting on growth the last couple months (over 50% in the account I stayed bullish in). And STILL going! If your predictions hold true it should give a beautiful opportunity for buying inverse etf’s and the higher this goes the better it could be. Thanks Again – Reg
Dear Martin ,
I had not much money to invest until now .I did loose some $30,000.00 ten years ago in the stock market and learned my lesson.
Since ,I have invested in Art when I learned that rich people get richer and richer because they invest in art which never goes down , but most of the time goes up.And it’s a great hobby .I just think that your kind of investment is more constructive in the short term.I believe in the total devaluation of the dollar . Let me know what you think .Thanks.JJR
I also have a question about inverse ETF’s. You may have explained them already, but I may have missed it. I just received your book and have only gotten into the first chapter. Where can I find out more about the inverse ETF’s?
I am by no means a great economists or a soothsayer, but I am looking for a rise
in interest rates as a signal that things are leveling out. Do I expect this in the near future….by no means. At this time, I depend on you and your staff for sane and balanced evaluations. Thanks. Sylvia Toole, Texas
New investor education department — How news headlines are misleading:
Here’s the headline: Big increase in self-employed provides Canadian jobs surprise
… more than half-way down we begin to finally read what this actually means – less than nothing!:
================
The devil in the jobs report’s detail is that all of the net job gains were attributable to the 37,000 rise in lower-paying self-employment, which is often a last resort for workers who can’t find jobs elsewhere.
Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt said he didn’t “trust” the self-employment category because it was unlikely most jobs were voluntary, and because it contains a significant sampling error component.
And more self-employed could also signal labour market weakness rather than strength, said Canadian Labour Congress economist Sylvain Schetagne, as well as point to a failure in Canada’ social safety net.
“If you don’t qualify for employment insurance or if you have exhausted your benefits and there are no jobs out there, what do you do? You sell everything and go on social assistance or you become self-employed,” Sylvain said.
“They change their status from unemployed to self-employed but can they live on it?”
…
“In the end, (April’s gain) doesn’t matter because it’s an aberration to what will be a full year of job losses,” including further layoffs in the auto sector, Holt said.
I find myself backed into a corner, not of my own making: my wife inherited a stock portfolio and a Merrill Lynch broker from her parents whose hobby was watching their money. My field is medicine, but am currently disabled and not practicing. My wife has no number sense at all and has handed her holdings to me to oversee. The lingo of investments is even more intricate than medicine (if that is possible) and I know very little of it. I believe we are in for a rough ride at some point and have thought so for 50 years. Having served in Viet Nam and now seeing the same scenario being repeated in Iraq, I have faith that government will do what is best for government, that it will never learn from its mistakes, and the chosen few will thrive while Joe Six-pack is catching bullets and the economy is like a big Monopoly game all based on the paper standard. So, where do I go from here? Who do I believe? Many of you may not remember Howard Ruff, an advisor, that my father thought a lot of some years back. Mr. Ruff was predicting a meltdown 30 years ago and the government has managed to keep things afloat and, in fact, thriving for most of those years. Is there a crash course for unwilling investors like me somewhere out there? Freshman economics was a long time ago and I don’t know that it would help much anyhow. Suggestions anybody? Thanks!
Martin, I am so confused right now. It seem traders as well as retail people and everyone on wall street seems to think the rally is here to stay. I believe very much what you are saying in your guide. But, this rally is lasting a lot longer then I would have thought. Right now I am trying to protect my assets with inverse ETF’s but it is not working. I am so confused, it’s like I just started investing instead of someone who has been in the market for over 40 years.
I just ordered your new book from Amazon today. Once I read it, I’m sure I’ll have more questions.
How would you suggest a regular middle class baby boomer move some of his family’s assets overseas? Are there any resources out there for smaller account holders? I’m not an accredited investor by any stretch and am not sure if moving some money overseas would even be a benefit.
I don’t want to do anything illegal. I do think it prudent to move some assets overseas if it can be done without having to fly to Switzerland.
Here is a contrary opinion.
S&P 500 peaked at 1552.87 on 03/24/2000 to form major wave 3 then went down to wave 4 at 768.63 on 10/10/2002, a 50.50% correction in 930 days. The market peaked again at 1576.09 on 10/11/2007, a 105.05% rally in 1827 days and finished its major wave 5. On 03/06/2009 S&P 500 came down to 666.79, a 57.69% correction in only 512 days, a little bit more than the previous correction of 50.50% of wave 4. Surely this could not be the final A-B-C correction after the major wave 5 but only the wave A because the percentage of the correction was too small and the time scale was too short. The latest rally to 929.58 on 05/07/2009 was only a meager 39.41% in only 62 days. Although I agree with you on the idea that we have not seen the bottom of the market yet but I don’t think we have seen the top of this wave B rally either. Despise all the bad news, S&P 500 still has a useful rally to go. I anticipate the first target of 1,000+ at the Fibonacci 38.2% then the second target of 1100+ at 50% and the final rally to fibonacci 61.8% at around 1225 area, perhaps in a year time.
ONE OF THE COMMENTS WAS, “YOU CAN BUY INVERSE ETF’S REAL CHEAP 5$”. WHAT INVERSE ETF’S ARE SELLING IN SINGLE DIGIT $$? PLEASE ADVISE.
Technical analysis aside (which I understand is incredibly bearish) could you be missing something that could ultimately play this scenario out differently than you are thinking? First, news is received by masses very differently today. The internet use is much more prevelant across the board and the masses are using it. The masses are sheep for the most part and easily led. The masses also control direction of markets sentiment a very strong and poweful factor in direction of markets. Next, government is more than willing to lye publicly, and allow for changes that sweep the truth under the rug and lead the masses down the primrose path. More prevelant today than ever before. With the combination of these two events and the power of the easily led general masses as a driving force, could this override or at least mitigate swings that technical analysis say are improbable?
Could the lye and cover up mentality mitigate things just long enough to allow for or stop the dramatic swings you are counting on in your investment portfolio?
No cycle is ever exactly the same because technology is different, very different. Is government smart enough to be playing and counting on this factor? They are at least obviously playing the game to give the banks time to work things out rather than crash. I say these things not because I am a disbeliever in your strategy, but more to make sure that you are thinking outside the box as things are different today than in past cycles on the speed at which the masses get and react to information. Also, people are tired of losses and “in mass” they can more easily will things today than in the past.
Interested in your thoughts because it appears things are somewhat acting contrary to your purely technical views.
By the way, Larry has been pretty much on point with his views of how high this rally could and is likely to go. More so than others. I also see today that Mike has shifted his view of the residential real estate collapse. Time to step back and reassess the whole thought process I think.
Law of nature : everything is born , grows up strong ,in its youth ,becomes young in its prime then starts getting older and dies ultimately .
Its the same with cities and countries , Byzantine (Istanbul) , Rome, Cathay , Timbucktu ,Samarkhand, Avicennia , Paris ,London etc etc were all at one time or the other centres of the world .Centres of trade and commerce and of learning .
All one by one decayed an died out . Same is with the Economies . All decay and die .Its a cycle . and a bell shaped curve .
The Globe today need leaders to herd the sheep in the right direction and a sheepdog to take them out of danger .
What the world has is a pack of Wolves and foxes in sheep clothing just out to lead everyone into the biggest hell hole ever .
The American two party democracy is a hopeless failure where even the constitution is not respected . What is fed to the public is disgraceful and outright lies .The presidents should be respected and the office of president has so much meaning .
But the last many incumbents especially after Jimmy Carter were unfit for any Office forget the presidents .
All Greed Scam sorry its no spelling mistake .
and they tell us that Madoff was the greatest Ponzi Artist ever .
Hello Martin,
I have had unfortunate experiences in the stock market, 10 years ago. My main investements today are in Real Estate and bank savings. I have about $600,000 dollars to invest. I am not sure what would be a wise investment in this economy. I am talking with a guy from Fisher Investments. But, I am not comfortable with it because they invest money in stocks that give dividends. (As you know, Fisher Investments charges 1.2% commission.) Please advise if you manage any investments for people like me.
Thank you. Mark
Thanks for the wonderful insights in your letters daily .They are really very useful and helpful .
The closest thing to our markets and gov’t response is/was Japan (worlds second largest economy) after the fall from grace in 1989. After the peak of 39,000 in Dec 1989. It was 2 1/2 years before the FIRST bottom was reached. After that, there was a 30% + rally, another fake bottom a bit higher, another 30% + rally, a big fake bottom in June 1995, a really big 50% plus rally, another big and fake bottom, ANOTHER 50% plus rally into March 2000 another huge decline into April 2003. A massive rally of 110% into June 2007. ANOTHER massive decline to NEW lows. So…………… Buy and Hold is not workable. Looking for a FINAL bottom is not workable. Since Wall Street is allergic to the truth, all numbers are suspect. This is a traders market. Partial positions after big sell offs make sense. Adding to positions on bigger sell offs make sense. Selling big rally’s makes sense. Waiting for months or even years to re position makes sense. Chasing after big rally’s is dangerous. Uncertain about income stocks.
Martin,
I have lost about one-third of my net worth with the stock market crash. I am currently 100% in cash. I am looking for ways to recover my losses. There is just too much information on the thousands of internet sites about what you should do to recover your stock market losses. I am totally confused. I just don’t know who to trust. Yes, I would like specific instructions to invest the way you are investing in the million dollar portfolio. I have hesitated to take the risk and spend the money to become a member of the million dollar portfolio. All the policy disclaimers have scared me off. Of course everyone should understand that any portfolio performance cannot be guaranteed. I also realize that the million dollar portfolio has not had time to prove itself and therefore does not have track record. However, doing nothing to repair my portfolio damage is very risky. I’m missing out on the gains I could realize with the right investments. I have registered to receive notification if the million dollar portfolio is ever offered again.
Thanks,
John
Dr. Weiss
While you put your efforts into going to Washington to promote your book, I think you miss the salient point of our financial collapse. The underlying reason is a private Cental Banking system printing fiat money which we pay them interest to use and an fractional reserve banking system. s This was all by design to bankrupt American, and the world for that matter.
It would be un-likely that you would not know this, so I’m wondering why you don’t educate your readers to this truth.
On can easily address this issue without stepping into “conspiracy theories” by simply supporting Cong. Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Federal Reserve. http://www.dailypaul.com/node/90775
Do you think it is sound business sense for this bank which controlls the US (and much of the globe) to have never been publicly audited and actually have legal protection from audit?
Larry Hanus
Hi, Martin!
I think two steps are necessary for those seeking good income and protection against the inevitable inflation that will follow, due to our idiot government diluting the money supply.
First, get out of the US dollar! There are several good economies that will seem like pillars of strength when we see Jimmy Carter levels of inflation, so being paid in a stronger currency will be advantageous.
Second, the energy and utility sectors are pretty fundamental to operating modern civilization.
I have most of my money invested in Canadian energy Trusts, with the rest in utilities.
There is another potential area for great profits. As China suffers more and more trouble in their agricultural sector, they will need to import more and more food. Our idiot government subsidizes farmers for not growing, while complaining about the trade deficit with China. Other countries are not so stupid. Canada and Australia, to name just two, profit now, and stand to make greater gains as the price of agricultural comodities rises.
In short, I believe the best positions are in the energy and utility sectors, and agricultural comodities, all of which are fundamental.
Cheers,
Kent
We are retired And I would like for you to give me detailed instruction on how to invest the way you do.
Martine, Definitely your book is excellent. It warn us like: When our life is about to come to end It will immediately brightly lights up which will give false hope and than suddenly it will come to end. Some similarly happening into financial world. Tsunami is about come.
You ask what the one thing is that would convince me that contrarian investments are ripe for NOW. There are two:
The first has happened — The Feds have issued the expected cover-up grade-inflated bank “score card” — euphoria reigns.
The second is for the SPX to break 840 on good volume.
As irrational as the exuberance may be, it never pays to fight the market.
By that time the bear play may not be contrarian. Que sera!
I see no support below there until ~670ish
One more thought to my earlier comment about how the masses are led. The press elected Obama and the press is much more likely to report in a way that supports their choice for president meaning the truth is much more likely to find back page instead of front page print. Much easier to lead the masses and sentiment this way. Do not under estimate the power of the press albeit misguided in many cases.
They will have their way and make him the next messiah.
the one thing that would give me confidence now? -knowing that even a small sum of money available for investing would make a big enough impact.
I am a new subscriber, however I do not have the money to invest at this time. My wife and I are both in our 50’s and have 5 children and are still homeschooling three of them. Because I was laid-off almost a year ago, (although I start a new job on Monday) I withdrew what little remained of my 401K (after all the market losses) to supplement my savings and unemployment; my net worth consists of about $45K in equity of our home, which I had to refinance last year to a 30 year term in order to reduce the payments. My debt at this point is only the mortgage and about $3K in credit card balance (I rolled over a vehicle loan and some previous card debt into the refi). My question is this: Given my situation, should I sell my home to pay off the debt and have some cash? At some point down the line I could buy in a different location where housing is cheaper, or should I just “stay put” for now? I live in Lancaster County, PA where home prices have not been going down like most of the nation, so at this point I can still get a good market value for my home. It is my primary residence and I do not own any investment R/E. Any thoughts?
Is it worth my while to hang on to these two ETF’s – SRS & SCC? I bought them both when they were $130 and have been patiently waiting for them to return to that level or higher but it’s taking much longer than I expected! Tks
Is it worth my while to hang on to these two ETF’s – SRS & SCC? I bought them both when they were $130 and have been patiently waiting for them to return to that level or higher but it’s taking much longer than I expected! Tks
The only investments that have worked for me in recent times are a short term capture of stock price increase just prior to dividend x-date, and select corporate investment grade bonds.
Watch out–inverse ETFs usually have a small window of opportunity, they are highly leveraged, they are not pure inverse and can have a mind of their own.
Martin, these are crucial times we live in. Maybe there is something else that should be considered as it relates to our financial woes.
Several years ago, I read an English translation of a book entitled “Unrestricted Warfare.” The authors were Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, two high ranking military officers in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The book was published in February, 1999 by the PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House.
The authors discussed the elements of warfare using military and non-military concepts. They speculated on how future wars would be conducted and emphasized using non-military means such as political, economic, technological, cultural and psychological to achieve victory. As an example, they posed the question: “…could buying or gaining control of stocks be used to turn another country’s newspapers and television stations into the tools of media warfare?”
The authors praised the United States military for technological advancements in weaponry, but expressed disdain for Americans in general by statements such as: “Americans are slaves to technology in their thinking,” and “since the day they stepped onto the international stage, the Americans have been seizing things by force or by trickery …”
Great emphasis was placed on financial war as a powerful form of non-military war. A defeat on the economic battlefield could cause the collapse of a country’s social and political order. In fact, they stated that “even a quasi-world power like China already has the power to jolt the world economy just by changing its own economic policies.”
They pointed out “that even the world’s number one debtor nation, a country which relies on the inflow of foreign capital to support its economic prosperity, the United States …” could “suffer heavy economic losses.” They considered that outcome “better than a military strike.”
China seems to be doing quite well these days. Any comment?
My answer to your question of what would give me confidence to invest in contraian investments now would be for you to tell us how to do so and I’ll be there.
Jim
Can you explain where to go to invest in inverse ETFs. Can you invest as little as 1,000.00 dollars and how long should you hold them?
I have been watching the news and feel we may be on the verge of a perfect finanial storm that will change the life sytle of US familys for years to come. The media knows this to be true.
Four several years I have listened to Martin and others saying that the economy can’t continue on this path, and for year people have replyed, the sky is falling. Guess what, the sky is falling along with their 401Ks and home values.
Thanks, Rob
The present Bull Run seems to be running on thin air and based on optimism that the worst is over. If this present crash in any way mirrors that of the 1930`s the worst is yet to come . Your advice and analysis seem right on the money the market seems set to downturn when the real state of this crash starts to impact more clearly.
What about Synthethic GIC stable value funds. Most of our funds are in cash except a chunck left in a company 401k (large employer-JPMorgan is the manager). This Stable Value fund invests in: CMBS 2.3%/Asset-backed securities 2.3%/Agency debt 5.9%/Agency MBS 46.3%/Non-Agency MBS 7.25/Treasury-Cash equiv. 8.1%/Corporates 14.9%/Private Mtgs. 12.9%/CMBS 2.3%. The “Benefit responsive Wrap issuers” are: RBC; Monumental Ins.; State Street Bank; Bank of America. No longer employed by the company whose 401k it’s in…the fund has remained positive (3.7% 1-year return). Should we move that to a private IRA? If so what big company do you like for parking IRAs? Most of our other funds are in Schwab so don’t won’t to add more there. I’m in the process of intently reading your book. Thank you for all you do!!!
The S&P reversing and testing the 800 level or the March low….EJB
JP Morgan the stock that could go to nothing when their CDS exposure bankrupts them is trying to lead the Dow higher . This is demonstrating that the obama administration is not only baling out the banks but is actively through most probably Goldman Sachs buying up stock in selected Dow stocks . According to Reuters and TDWaterhouse its P/E is now 63 . Compare Microsoft P/E at 11 !
We have all lost money in the fund market. Now what do I do since I have my money in cash. I do not want my money sitting there without earning some money for me. I do not trust the market.
What about insurance companies?
I remain on the sidelines in stocks. Reverse ITF’s will be attractive when the rally tops out..
I have been buying gold and feel it is the ultimate value buy when the you know “what” hits the worldwide fan.
Martin you saved my financial life 2 years ago.I have been totally out of the market since January 08
Again Thanks.
Steve
Martin you have been very right about a lot of things which tells me you either do a lot of math …..OR you are an insider who knows a lot more than you are saying …Me on the other hand am a man who see’s tomorrow before it happens, that is why I found it amazing that you were saying the very things my visions show me, that is why I wrote to you about what I see coming very soon the conflict with China. The whole thing is about industry and our countries Lack of it.The fact is we are a little too late although I give an enormous amount of credit to you for actually trying to warn people and help them through this time,God Bless you, I on the other hand feel there too much happening the Chinese doctrin works in a differant time line the plan that is unfolding started in the mid 1970’s and the plan long term this financial disaster is a preplanned attack laid out by them and as we react to this period they have already planned any type of response through their think tanks of strategy on How to Destroy the USA. Plan 1 Ruin their industry Plan 2 destroy their financial supremacy plan 3 Divide politically and conquer the minds from within Plan 4 OWN USA make them a slave state.
I know this sounds radical I know I sound crazy and after this email I promise not to bother you anymore as I know what you must think of this crazy letter, but just look a little
A. they have the industry
B. we owe them more than we can pay
C. the minds of the general public is about their own lives and how to survive
D. they have all our military secrets and are presently building a blue water navy that Noone is talking about and Oh yes a 25 million man standing army
Still sound crazy? Ask Mr Nick Rockafella….
So sorry I know this letter is not in line with your blog but I can only tell you Most every Depression Leads to a Great War.
I am the man who see”s tomorrow
i am one of your die hard readers, and very interested and really believe what you are saying: now where do i buy inverse ETF’s….can i buy from Ever Bank…i am a very amateur on this. is it wise to get my CD ($13,000.00) and suffer a 10% penalty and invest the amount to ETF’s…will this recover the mpenalty? thnks
RE: On-going Irrational Exuberance
With trillions of dollars sidelined in Jan/ Feb timeframe, I expected a nice bear market rally back in March, and we got one. It is a dandy, and shows no immediate sign of abating…
To use a old Alan Greenspan phrase, what puzzles me at this point is the irrational exuberance that is currently driving financial stocks sharply higher… in spite of the fact that:
a) the government (FASB) allowed banks to “mark-to-fantasy” rather than to actual market
b) the banks lost money last quarter, though they cooked the books to create a delusion
c) banks are increasing capital by diluting their own stock; and folks are buying it like gold!
d) the consumer represents 70% of the economy, yet credit lines (a big “source” of their disposable cash) are being cut significantly each month
e) unemployment, a leading indicator, is now at 9% (11.5% in California!) and climbing
f) traders refuse to pay attention to leading indicators (including tax receipts, etc. etc.)
g) office vacancies are increasing, and commercial real estate is about to tank
h) much more, but today’s my birthday, and I have other things to do . . .
So maybe we’ll have to wait until the end of May timeframe, for reality to sink in. I’ll be patient, Martin… I promise.
beware of the dbl and triple etf’s play them like options set tight stops and take some off when you achieve a profit ….regardless if your long or short
Martin
Thank you for all the no spin sound advice that you deliver .
I have a question that I need some real expirenced advice.
I enjoyed the positives of the realestate boom. I invested solely in this catagory out side of my anual contributions to my IRA. unfurtunately I did not get out of the market soon enough.I now own mutiple properties that are non income producing, mainly comercial entitled and improved vacant land as well as mutifamily entitled vacant land.
All but one is owned out clear. My income was based soley on cap gains from buy and sell and has come to a halt for the last two years. My cash reserves have been strianed substantially. You have the set up now here is the questions .I own a second home out clear .I have a home equity line in place for $430,000 1% minus prime
cheap money! I have the house on the market for $495,00 I paid $650,000 24 months ago. The house is water front new and in FLA. seeing that you have access to this cheap money would you try to hold on to the house and rent it till the market stabilizes and use the equity line to invest now or keep dropping the price on the house till it sells and then use the money to invest?
Allso what would you invest in if you have never invested in any thing other then realestate.?I do not feel confident by reading the daily money markets emails that I would know -when,- what,- where,- how , to do so in the things that you sugest. do you offer a hands on when and where sevice?
Thank you Carl
How do i go about buying ETFs and what does those inititals mean? Can you get back to me or point to where I go to do that. Thanks for your help. Carolyn T
How do you buy inverse EFT’s. I don’t have the kind of money many of your readers have, but i have a CD account i can spare. I know zero in how to go about it, but i enjoy reading your posts any way.
Martin thanks for all your and your team’s hard work to keep us out of danger and thank again for all the knowledge you have shared with us. The ONE thing that would give me the confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments — beginning right now is waiting for your blessing.
I am thinking of purchasing gold with my $12,000 IRA. I don’t know exactly what to get, i have looked at priceline and kitco. If I purchase by the pound, because it is less costly than smaller coins, how would i break it down when i need to????
thanks for your help
What’s the ONE thing that would give you the confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments — beginning right now? Well… I am into the contraian investments and have been for awhile. Everytime I thing this rally is over I almost sell them but are still hanging on!!! But to be real truthful… it is scaring the “begeebes out of me” !!!! The one thing I need personally is a combination of things I guess..1) do I stay with the Inverses I have (which are being beat-up daily); sell – go with other Inverses; or go over to the Bull side ( which I feel now has been over bought)? I just need some insturments to use right now to be ready for the turn. The problem I see is that every bad or actual news that is reported, it is always slanted to be a “good thing”! Every statistic we have is at the worst ever….historical highs… the highest in multiple years; but, the stocks just are taking off!!! I am not a professional and don’t pretend to be, but I understand business and issues and the facts… and man these stats are not GOOD NEWS ! I think the Weiss Team is correct and I staying the course as long as I can… but need recommendations what to be in now and a rough guess (if possible) when this will turn or what can turn it !!!??? Thanks.
Much has been written on how to protect our investments, but I have seen nothing about what you believe that investors can do as a group to move the present decline into positive territory. Your comments will be appreciated.
Martin,
Thanks for all you do, for the small time investor
like myself. I really enjoy all your articles & videos
it has helped me learn about the overall market in
general. I really put a lot of faith in your articles, &
you are one of the very few that I look up to & TRUST
in what you tell the people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks,
Pat
Martin,
Thanks for all of your insight to this crisis. I have one question reguarding I.R.S.’s. Some of the data that i have been studing indicates that this market is somewhere between 2.4 to 2.6 QUADRILLION dollars. However you have not addressed this market at all to the best of my knowledge. Can you add any of your insght on this matter, or direct me to more accurate data?
Thanks in advance,
Mike
GOLD and SILVER are the two best contrarian investments for now. Gold is looking for a break-out to 1000 or a drop to 750, and no way to tell which way. So buy above $1000 or at $750.
Silver is also in neutral zone with potential $10.50 low and break-out above $14. The dollar is the key to big moves here. Watch for dollar to fall below 84 to get biggest up move.
The ETF’s are next best buy (inverse). Market DOW will peak at 9000 (good bet) or push up to 12000 max for final rally
( possible).
When is the key. China and the Hang Seng are good guide. If/when this hits 18000 it is time to sell the market. NOw about 16800 or so.
I look for Martin to tell us when these key signals are likely to hit. Buying anything prior to these signals is a potential loss.
Martin,
The one thing that would convince me that new lows are coming would be more stories or examples from your father. Since he saw these same things happen back in the 1930’s it would be very insightful. Thank you!
If I tried to buy something with imaginary money, I’d end up in jail. But Bernanke’s FED can buy bonds from the Treasury with imaginary money, and he’s hailed as a savior of the economy. And the Treasury uses that imaginary money to pay for military action, pay government employees, fund my social security (I’m 8o) and try to convince the world that the U.S. is solvent. It’s truly an obamanation.
I forgot to add to my previous comment that your advice about inverse ETFs seems the best way to go, picking apparent peaks as the best places to invest, and selling near apparent bottoms. Be satisfied with reasonable gains and forget about trying to satisfy long-term capital gains reqirements. Pay the taxes – it’s imaginary money anyway.
I have been reading your blog and taking in a lot of what you say and agree wholeheartidly with your opinions, I have never been a risk taker, so never invested in stock markets for sometime I have believed there was a big crash coming but from the big crash there wil be big profits to be made if you know where to find them and how to pick them, I have just accepted an offer on my property, I plan to do some low cost travelling around the world for at least the next three years but would like to invest some of my capital that I will have, just need to know where and the ins and outs and the pro’s and cons.
Martin
Do you collaborate or ever talk to Harry Dent ? Your business philosophies are very similar but you analyze the situation from two different perspectives. I admire and am grateful to both of you for saving me from the current financial disaster.
Your book was very educataional and honest. Thank you. I enjoy reading your and your associates columns every day. Keep up your excellent work and honest and objective observations and recommendations. I also,admire and appreciate the love and respect you have for your father. I feel the same way about mine. God Bless you and your family.
The Top.
This market move up will eventually die out; I have no doubt there. The sighs will likely be higher volume but no price appreciation by the major indexes (DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ); Followed by a big one to two week sell-off on heavy volume; Possible combined with some dire news such as a big investment bank run or closure, another country going the way of Iceland, another huge spike in unemployment etc. Pick the poison. The icebergs are out there and the share markets and going to hit one and likely many. Be patient and wait for when the markets begin going down on BOTH good AND bad news.
Great question!!
It’s seems to me it all about knowledge & believing in a leader.This means you get the info from the charts & the research, then the timing & the stocks/shares from watching the expert.
That’s you Martin!!
Martin, I already have a position in gold, have GLD, some shares of Barick Gold (ABX) and a precious metals mutual fund that I bought few years ago and am still hanging onto. I realize that the stock market reversal will be sudden and furious and have purchased small quantity of DOG as per your advice in Smart Money portfolio. Another idea that I am entertaining: I think that the yields on long term treasury bonds cannot go much lower any more unless the goverment starts aggresive buy back again. Is there any reverse ETF for long bonds? Would not purchasing short bonds ETF be less painfull waiting for inevitable reversal than jumping in front of current stock market rally? Would not bond prices fall along with the falling stocks prices?
Anthony.
The ONE thing that would give me the confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments — beginning right now?
One more jump up in the 10yr (TNX) & 30yr (TYX) treasuries….QE does not appeared to have worked….Basically I am watching the upcoming auctions….closely….
Thank You for your advice Martin. You have a lot of smart people that are in your corner and believe the same as you that this mess is coming to a head. But we need someone who tells the truth to guide us in through this mess and that is you. I know it is a big responsablity to take on.
I am going to cash in and follow your advice. God Bless, Milbert Oster
I am considering the PIMCO COMMODITY REAL RETURN FUND….yields about 6.5% and was as high as 20 or so and is now trading around 6 . Same Pimco manager for about 6
yrs and 2008 was tho only year in the last 5-6 where they lost money (65%). Inflation should drive this fund substantially higher.
I am retired & I need more income, have 20,000 in a Money Market Account, would like to invest for income higher than Money Market yield, where can I invest this money. I would like to sell some closed end fund composed of large cap US stocks, would like to buy inverse ETF with proceeds, how can I buy inverse ETF & which kind. Thank you in advance for your help.
I have a 401k program at work, where my employer matches a percentage of my investment. We can “opt out” (or, “opt in) of the 401k contributions, but can only do it twice a year (Jan and June, or so). We can choose our investments and percentage of individual funds. I’m wondering if it would be best for me to opt out for a while … (I’m 52 now)
Thanks,
Phillip
HI, HAVING GONE OVER ALL MY STUFF, I FIND THAT MY THINGS HAVE PENALTIES ON THEM, LIKE TWO YEARS BEFORE TIME IS UP SO I WON’T LOOSE ON THEM. IF I COULD MOVE I WOULD. WOULD YOU SUGGEST I TAKE THE PENALTIES AND THEN HAVE CASH TO MOVE TO BIGGER AND BETTER THINGS?, OR HOLD STEADY WHERE I AM FOR RIGHT NOW? YOUR SUGGESTIONS SEEM SOUND TO ME AND I’D LIKE TO TRY AND WOULD IF AND THAT IS A BIG ‘IF’. BUT MY INNER FEELING SAYS TO HANG ON. I’M READING AND LISTENING IF IT ISN’T TOO LATE BY THEN. IT’S HARD TO LET GO OF THE ANCHOR LINE WHILE TREADING WATER.
I am concerned about lots of things. 1. The fact that I lost so much in the stock market last year in my Roth IRA and 401k and then the end of the year I put my entire 401k in a money market. I am 59-1/2 on May 1st and I called to withdraw the entire amount. The sum of over $100.00 was taken out from 1/1/09 thru 5/1/09 and they continue taking money out even though it’s in money market…There is NO ACCOUNTABILITY in our country anymore on any level. They have your money and can continue to do anything with it they like because they are all so corrupt that there is no one left to report theft crimes. 2. I am very disappointed that we have a Republican elected official that is allowed to have his palm greased with God knows how much money to make their total of “50″ necessary votes for their so called “Fast Tracking” bills through our government in order to tax the US citizens more on top of all they’ve heaped on us already….There has no “NO COMMENT” as to the legality of this switch. But, if he wants to switch – he should be made to resign and run under the Democratic ticket the “next term” and a new election should be held for that position. Otherwise, we are not even close to being the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA “BY THE PEOPLE, FOR THE PEOPLE”.. Those days are gone forever and probably not in our lifetime, will we see or feel the flavor of our country being run by “the people and their election process”. They will do whatever it takes to have their way and our lives as we knew it “is over”. Like the email going around lately, I’m sorry, but due to the economy crisis; the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off. How sad is that?
Signed – Concerned “no” Angry “no” Totally outraged “yep that’s the one”.
What should I do with my annuities? To cash out would cost since I’m only almost 58, yet to sit by and watch my whole portfolio crash seems crazy. Would the 5-6% loss be worse than the crash? Also, what about taxes. If I’m living in Mexico and I take out my money would I have to pay?
Martin, thanks for your accurate predictions, which have helped me weather this storm better than expected. I look forward to your e-mails…please keep up the good work!
Martin
I am 67 and have watched the bears and the bulls over 35 years and each have had very persuasive arguments for postions to invest . As a conservative investor, I always placed myself in the middle neither made nor lost money in the market. ( no risk = no return) in our case a small return.
At this stage, my conservative stocks/mutual funds have dropped 35% which represents a substantial part of my retirement income. ( Minimin risk = Loss) My wife (age 60) and I are working in the real estate business as owners of a boutique company in this current market which is still providing us income. We have fixed retirement income of 55,000 and $600,000 in conservative liquid positions such as CDs, and a capital appreciation. We have also income from our real estate business while we are working plus commercial and home property investments . Living on Long island, NY is very expensive plus family obligations require us to continue to work.
Where would you recommend us to place our liquid assets, I have used your current recommendations to dump my stock when the DOW was at 6500. I beleive in your theories but I am in a catch 22 environment where the DOW has gone up to 8500 and our real estate business (buyers) is almost behaving like the market in 2003 – 2004 and that market didn’t have the govt incentives, discounted properties by 25% and low interest rates of today. (4.6%)
I want to hedge our bets in this type of environmemt just in case you are wrong in your predictions and market investors want to believe in the hypes and the artificial props which will prolong the inevitable for another 5 years or more.
Historically, I bet without any research that the markets had moved illogically in most bull markets as long as the majority is illogical. Martin, Why didn’t the market / media/congress listen to you when you had provided excellent logical information in 2002 – 2003 with your bubble bursting theories/facts?
What do you recommend?, I want to be safe and win like most wealthy people who know the odds.
I want to invest where there is minimal risk and a 85% probability to make money.
Is that realistic
Steve B
PS 1 Y2K believer
PS 2 Invested in the Go GO funds ( Enterprise Fund 1968 at the high)
PS 3 Invested in Dreyfus Liquid Assets ( another dog over 20 years)
PS 2 I purchased your book but I stopped reading it because it was giving me angyst
Too much gloom and doom from most of you I think. Iv’e been a FM for 30 years . Worst fears don’t usually materialise. I have seen so many gloomy pundits preaching armagedon and get it right for a while. Right now there are a number of authoritive voices with track records voicing opposing views
Of course this situation we find ourselves in is serious but the top brains of world governments are on to it big time. There is increasing evidence that matters are changing from very bad to just bad which explains the market rally. I think it is ahead of itself for the moment and some of the gains will be retraced . But the mood is changing .Fears of depression, hyperinflation etc have evaporated Sentiment has been at rock bottom and there remains enormous sums of uninvested money with the holders prepared to look 12 months ahead , concerned about missing out and seeing some good value to be had.
I suspect the time to possibly start worrying maybe in a year or two when the begging bowls have to be withdrawn , governments have to curb their spending , taxes and interest rates go back up as this mess gets paid for. But that lies some time in the future.
Finally bear in mind that all bull markets have to climb a wall of worry
Day trade 2 hours before closing with finger on the mouse. Sell all stocks before closing, do not keep one for next day.
If you do not have nerves for this, buy ocean site at Panama, South Costa Rica or Equadorr..
Great articles, thank you Jiri
Dear Martin, Thanks for taking our petitions to Congress. I think a lawsuit should be filed on behalf of the American taxpayers demanding that our Government stop bailing out these banks and put them into receivership. (Isn’t this our current law, and isn’t this law being ignored?)
I wouldn’t mind hearing your thoughts. It seems that all of the petitions and phone calls aren’t making a difference. I also think another lawsuit should be filed to demand an independent investigation to determine each and every person and institution that has taken part it this theft of hard-working Americans and that all who are guilty should be put in jail.
Just think how many people would sign this.
G’Day, Martin & the team
Have you or your team seen the most amazing documentary : “ZIETGIEST The Movie” & “ZIETGIEST The Addendum”.
This to me is terrifying! What do you Guys think??
Regards,
Ross.
enjoy your work but have reservations,I do think this is a bounce ,but i also think a fall in the market is to predictable.Devaluation of the dollar could extend this rally futher than we think. How much pain did it take to sell? I think the real money will do the same if you enter the market to early.
regards john
While I am convinced you are right about the upcoming collapse/bottom, I am seeing the strength to come in the better positioned energy companies, as even what is left of our economy will require more energy than we can produce very shortly as the energy industry defers projects that would have brought on new production–there simply is not enough oil and gas medium and long term and those companies like XTO and marathon will have to do extremely well–should we hold on to those??
I totally agree with what you are saying Martin and i enjoy reading your comments.The other guy in some report keeps on pumping the US dollar and it is so false as soon the bottom will drop out just like Peter always talks about —so much debt and if it was any other country there dollar values would get killed. But The Americans are the best crooks this is why the US dollar has held up but the world is getting smarter. When do you think the dollar crashes??
I have no problem with contrarian investments like you advocate. It is a matter of timing. It’s easy to talk about, difficult to execute. Having the confidence to execute often times meaning having someone on your side to help guide you through the decision while keeping your perspective. That’s where I have found Safe Money Report and Money and Markets to be invaluable for needed support. Keep it coming!
Martin,
Thanks for giving us some of your investment knowledge..it has helped quite a lot. I’ll admit I’m not a stock market genius or anything but I have a few stocks that pay dividends that I’m going to wait a few more days to sell. They’re at just about what I paid for them so maybe in a few more days if this so called rally continues, maybe I can actually make a little money on them.
Martin I have read with delight the ideas you suggest but find myself a novice in this game of ETF’s, could you share some inverse ETF’s that I should get into now or wait just a little longer as I am about to come into an inheritance and do not want to squander this opportunity. Bless you and your staff and keep up the great work of educating the downtrodden.
I hear you talking about ETF’s and that they can be bought for as little as $5.00, but you do not explain what an ETF is or Where to buy them or even when to buy therm?
Martin:
Like yourself, I’m also an American citizen with Southamerican roots (Argentina). On that basis, plus what I know about economics and finance, I also find the current “printing money ” policy and it’s likely inflationary consequences and ultimate dollar depreciation , way too familiar and scary.
Can you clarify for me whether the “high yield, low grade corporate funds/or ETF “, constitute a safe contrarian investment or if they are just another, illusion based investment, many advisers are trying to sale these days?
Thank you for all your work and for making it accesible to the public.
Elisa Entine, Boston
EVERYONE is unanimous this is a Bear Market rally. What happens everytime, when everyone is thinking the same way?
What are the names of inverse long government bonds ETFs. Thank you.
Martin.
Really enjoy and appreciate your guidance. The current issue of Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Magazine (June) has several useful articles (to me) including where to find top yields now. I seldom find much useful information in the magazines as they concentrate so heavily on mutual funds and tout that it is always a good time to buy something. I’m looking forward to your coming comments in the next few days and know you will provide even better assistance on what and where to invest now.
I took advantage of the current bear rally to unload some of my few remaining investments in the market. Hope that answers what my thoughts on current market rally are. You ask what is the one thing that would give me confidence to aggressively pursue profits with contrarian investments? Probably not much. For me it has to be something that cannot go to a big loss if the decision is wrong. I am 75 and do not have time and earned income to recover a big loss. I did avert most of this last recession/depression’s losses, took over 80 percent of my funds out of the market in summer of 2007 and put them into interest earning vehicles.
I have gold bought in the late sixties and early seventies. It made the one big move in the seventies and the rest of the time it did very little until recently when it recovered and then went slightly above that move of 30 years ago. I am more inclined to consider investing in other precious metals as commodities for use in high tech products or alloys if the economy ever gets into a recovery. Silver could meet the latter use. Yep, redeemed a lot silver certificates at a profit while you still do so in the sixties.
Thanks and please keep up the great work.
I am new to investing. Who is a really good broker to deal with? I was dealing with Scott Trade and lost big time. I am looking for a good broker to deal with.
Your book is great and you donating the procedes show the kind of person you are. I loved the comments about your father and I can see why you are trying to help others just as he did.
My wife and I are near 60 and we are raising our 5 year old grandson who spent the first 5 years of his life in a hospital. He can’t walk, talk, and is blind, but God has a purpose for him.
I read your book to try and make the right decisions so that he can live comfortably as we can’t live forever.
I value all of your daily and/or weekly comments and I feel you are one of the few people actually telling the truth about the shape our country is in. I feel we are being lied to by some of our leaders and by Wall Street. They seem to be trying to get some suckers back in the game so they can steal some more money from them.
America has many honest citizens who want the best for every one, but those people don’t seem to be the ones in charge. How can we trust the leaders any more when their comments and information are a bunch of lies?
Please keep informing those of us that are trying to make good and honest decisions so we can protect our families and loved ones.
God Bless You !!!
I will say that information you provide is very informative and can be profitable. As I am 47 and have studied the stock market since my early teens I have learned a lot from your letters. I earned a MS at Purdue Krannert in 1985 after my BS in Mechanical Engineering at Oklahoma State and was always a numbers person. When I was taught the efficient market theory at Krannert I thought it was a bunch of crap. I have heard and read a lot of crap in my life in school, at stock broker offices in Kansas City where I am from, from so called family friends, and at jobs as a realtor and insurance agent. A lot of people talk crap- print crap- promote crap, but I read your letters as an objective no sales crap just tell it like you see it and mostly accurate.
I know that a lot of your information can be very profitable and am happy to read intelligent money making ideas, not just crap efficient market theory don’t waste your time trying to make $ in the stock market bull shit. It can be done and your letter proves that.
Dear martin and team
Thanks for your wisdom. I guess my question is quite common. What is inverse ETF? and how can I buy them. My feedback in this recession is to buy gold. Thanks and God bless
peter Goh
Hi Martin,
I think the DOW htting 9000 and S&P 950 would be a great time to pursue inverse ETF’s aggressively. It’s the approx. 200 day moving average for both indicies and you got to have some sort of correction after that kind of rally. Still waiting for your blessing……
thanks
I see an awful lot of questions from many people but where do I find answers to these questions. Suggestion: Why not write answers to all the questions asked in this email so that we will all get and idea what to do. I am 85 years old and right now I have all my cash in FDIC insured accounts. I own my own home outright with no mortgage to pay. I also have several hundred thousand dollars with a Jackson annuity with a minimum interest rate of 5% so I will leave this one alone. I am disabled and need caregiving services which are not cheap so I have to watch my pennies. My biggest fear is running out of money before I die. My only income is Social Security and a pension for a total of $2540 per month. My other income invested in FDIC banks has a minimal return so my income does not nearly cover my expenses. I would appreciate any advise on what I can do to increase my income safely. Thank you very much. John La Rosa
The main thing keeping me from investing right now is getting over the bad experiences from the losses I had on some of my former investments. I don’t want to lose anymore money. I just need your best recommendation as of right now.
I have followed your advice for a long time. You have been accurate—especially Mike Larson—but is it GLD, or corporate bonds, or stay on the sidelines right now.
Cincy D
How can i invest in gold now? i have never done so. can you guide me in the right direction. i am not a savvy investor, just a biginner. thanks for any advise and help you mayygive me.
How do we know which ETF’s to buy? Laura
Can you please discuss Stable Value Funds as an option in company retirement accounts…good or bad in this market??
Eventhough I leave between France and Spain I read carrefully your newsletter and I agree with you because your analysis make sense and ofcourse your great experience. I have cash in money market under 100 000 $, because I don’t trust anything for the time being and I cannot travel to the US now so I cannot buy either treasory bill nor gold. But I am quite decided to buy shares of gold mine with dividend. Couild you give me few names that you think are safe since I am retired and I will not take any risks.
Unfortunatly I cannot get your video from the location I am leaving currently
Best regards
Someone shouted ‘fire’, and everybody tried to rush out of the concert hall that had only one exit, to escape from being burnt or death even though they knew that it was a false alarm. That is how people behave in the current stock market bear rally. They know that the economic situation is very bad, but they buy shares because everybody is buying and they don’t want to experience the pain of missing the ship. This painful feeling is worse than losing money. So they don’t care even if they know that the Dow will drop to 5000 points next month. These people are like frighten sheeps being herded to a corner by the lone shepherd. They are so frightened by the Dow rallying that they must have some shares at any cost, any shares will do, shares of companies which don’t lose too much money. If these companies lose less than what the analyst predicted, they are a good buy. This is how the people behave in the Singapore stock market today. A sells shares to B at a higher price. B sells shares to C at an even higher price. C sells shares to D at a much higher price…..this goes on and on until the music stops. Will E to Z carry the baby ? Fund managers and directors of companies are on alert everyday, ready to take the money off the table. They are praying, praying for the good life that they have been dreaming of all these years.
Hey Martin,
Thanks for the opportunity to communicate with you. I am wondering about the
reverse ETFs and double and triple ETFs? I’m not familiar with how they work.
Is there a certain sector of the market I should look to? Thanks for your help.
Phil P
I am in USD and Canadian Dollar ( just regular savings). With the weaking USD to CND, is it just another bubble? Is Canada going to do better than USA in next couple of years?
The carney barkers for the financial products industry seem to be having success with a full court press convincing the sheeple that the velocity of the collapse has slowed, and this fact is a “good thing”. How can any economist find anything positive to say when over 16,000 people lose their job every single day, and many of our flagship financial institutions are all but insolvent? The “slowing of the velocity of collapse” idea simply gives us more time, and allows greater clarity of thought in selecting contrarian investments.
I am not an expert – not even beyond a basic understanding – on economics or finance. However, my limited knowledge tells me that the Great Depression cannot be used as a template for the present crisis, because the fiscal policies of that administration was diametrically different from that of the Bush or Obama administrations. So, there might be great similarities but there might also be big differences.
The current policies are based on the FDR model. However, I have read opinion that it was not FDR’s policies but rather the financial climate of World War II, which caused a turn around of fortunes. During World War II, the government spent a far higher percentage of GDP than FDR (before WWII) or currently. There was also far more government control of the economy (because of the war effort) than now. China is probably a better parallel to it.
But, as I said, I am no expert and have no settled view, but I think we are in a bear market rally.
Dear Martin,
Thank you so much for all the educational articles and I really have a lot of faith in your articles. Can’t remember how I found your website, but everyday 1st thing in the morning is to check my inbox to check your newsletter, though I’m living far away in Australia.
Martin, I have never touched ETFs before, so I’d like to know about contrarian ETFs and how to trade them, your help will be greatly appreciated. Thanks again! your articles help me to cool my head when so many people eagerly jumping in the stock markets these days!
Hello Dr Wiess, I really enjoy your reseaech, comments and blog. you are perfectly right fundamentally, I do agree with you all along, however the majority of market traders follow technical trends, technically we are now in correction phase, I believe we shall see dow up to 9000 or may be 9200 area before the sharp decline, that may take an other month or so, then no doubt, we shall see the dow below 5000. And so is the case with the US Dollar, we shall see more set-back i.e. STG 1.65, Euro 1.45, SF 0.99 before the bulls come in to take the Dollar way up, maybe to historical hight this time, I believe we shall see STG below parity!
Thanks and all the best.
Martin,
I have a roll-over pension from my ex-husband that went from 72,000 down to 42,000. If I take it out I will have to pay taxes on it but I can roll it over again. It and my house (present equity 70,000) are really my only investments. I have a small amount in my OPERS account but am not vested until November 2009 so do not have the employer matching funds yet. And this OPERS money is in a projected retirement year account. How can I move it to protect it and grow it and make my investment counselor at Edward Jones listen to me? I have a copy of your book for him to read. I figured this way he can help many people with your wisdom. I am still trying to read it for myself. I do not understand the terminology and have absolutely no experience with this. Please help.
martin,
your thought provoking insight to the coming armageddon in the financial markets scare, but , excite me!
i have kept the powder dry for a period of time hoping to get into this rally a while back, but due to the powerful and swift move on this rally, whilst all the news has gotten worse, has swayed me to holster the gun, and wait.
i had hoped that all my profits were to be derived from bull market advances, but it seems to me that i am destined to reap the rewards from the total capitulation of this false head fake.
i am totally impressed that we have people out there so positive, and chock full of fundamental and technical knowledge, guaranteeing us of this inevitable market meltdown!
my question is can we nail down a ‘thereabouts’ time frame, or index position, that we will see this leg down start from, how long roughly will it last, and most importantly, a group of inverse etfs that we can guarantee will slide unceremoniously into the bottomless pit of oblivion??
i am looking forward to this carnage, but only for my selfish reasons, to retrieve lost $$ and to support my family……[aren't we all?]
thanks for your service,
regards andrew.
yes from australia where you do have fans as well!
I’ve been following Martin’s advise for some time now, and I believe and agree, BUT… ALL you people investing in Inverse (2x, 3x) ETF’s need to CLOSELY MONITOR your account balances once you’ve made the leap into them. Be Advised, one can LOSE money Much Faster using these investment vehicles, than in normal Mutual Funds.
Martin
You have been right on the mark in your forecast. The technical indicators show we are about to round out the top of the recent market increase and the slide down will be fast. Once the traders and computer programs determine it is time to capture a quick profit everyone will be moving to cash or an inverse ETF or shorting stocking.
The recent Banking information is has not changed anything but restating that the Government now knows where the more troubled banks are. We have seen a little pull back in the unemployement numbers but this is only because it reflexed the first big way of layoffs and we will continue to see these numbers increase. People are not spending more they are saving more. Inflation is going to kill the goose once the US currency states to realize the lost in purchaing power over sees and oil prices will be the first to show $100 per burrel price again.
Please keep us on the real track of know and don’t allow us to follow the other over the clift. Thanks
Inflation is our friend. (some) It is needed to fuel every economic expansion. Fed chair Ben Bernanke was tring to reduce inflation to 1.5 %. Much too low for growth. He choked off the economy with high short term and no money (M-1 ) was created for 4 years. Never in 60 years have we gone 13 month without money creation. Go to the fed web site and see for yourself. Even with the current increase in M-1 it doesnt come close to making up for the lost four years when M-1 growth which should have been 5-20% per year historically. Ben is currenly right. We need more private lending at all levels, which would increase the money supply and we are not getting it.
I’ll gain confidence investing/trading when the SEC reigns in the big bad hedge fund guys by reinstating the uptick rule for shorting stocks.
I follow your moves to keep my money safe so far so good .
Thanks for all you do Martin .
Question: Some say that it is safer to have the real metal of silver or gold rather than having paper certificates, or an ETF. Is this true, or is it safe to invest in an ETF such GLD?
Thanks.
Bob
Dear Alan, Sell gold, sell oil, sell stocks,and stuff your mattress with cash. Then wait and smile.
I live in Michigan, if the canadian banks are so strong, why not transfer my money to one of them. It’s just across the river. The have accounts in US dollars.
Martin,
Being in commercial real estate and getting killed monetarily has not been fun. I bought SRS some time ago thinking that it would be a hedge for the downside exposure I am forced to maintain in my real estate (no liquidity…and more important seemingly no equity!!). I am a fool for not placing stops on the downside as I am way down on this one investment (I am way up on inverse interest rate play…Thanks!!).
It seems to me that commercial has to pop on the downside very soon. Lenders cant keep extending forebearance agreements with commercial owners. The pricing that seems to be clearing the market is 50% of debt. No one can refinance as values have gone down 50% from the peak, thus no equity!!! When does the stuff hit the fan in the market???
Hey Martin, I’m a ‘cautious’ Canadian, from the old school, you know (matress fund). Never did trust the banks, but since I’ve been reading your stuff, I’m even more sceptical. I’m 65, not well to do, but have saved a few bucks that I wantt to put into gold. An older trapper friend always told me, buy gold, land, and furs in for the rough times. Land is out in Vancouver here, nobody traps (greepeace etc.) My gut says water also would be a good place. What do you think? thanks -old trappers never die, they just smell like it.-Jamie
I was amazed that their wasn’t a slump after the Chrysler bankruptcy affair.
That for me and my modest knowledge convinced me that Martin about greater losses is right when lots of the commentators here in he UK are talking up the present rally as a long term recovery.
With your help and my patience I intend to make a lot of money.
Martin,
I know how to buy an ETF but how does one buy an Inverse ETF? Also does an Inverse ETF simply mean you are betting the ETF will fall in price? I trade on line and I suppose my on line company would explain but I did not make that call as yet…Just though you might be able to answer the question for me.
I bought your book and just started to read it…
Thanks,
Tedd
Martin, this is akin to a one horse race, having a false start, Obfuscation is more the name for what is happening with a relapse about to take place. My question is, where is the money and who is hanging on to it?
Your actions, with your group are the light of hope in all these troubling times, thank you for being here.
George.
Dear Martin,
Having read a sample of the amazing number of comments one thing bothers me and that is the huge consensus of people sharing your concerns. So is it time to exercise some contrary opinion. Personally I don’t feel quite so bearish and think that the market rally reflects investor’s views that the economic news is turning to being rather less bad than it has been. There is a lot of uninvested cash out there and holders are fearful of missing out. Right now the UK market in particular is overbought and should retrace some of it’s gains.
So until I have received and read your book I am sitting on the fence. I would just add that if your evidently extreme concerns are realised you will be hailed as one of the few authorities to have got it right not just to date but further out as well.
Hi Martin,
With the apparent up coming strength in China, would not a moderate investment in Chinese stocks be a good ploy at this time, they seem to be online to take over the stage from the USA as the next global industrial power, and in the not too didstant future.
Best Regards,
William
For all readers who are confused about what to do I would follow this general time line…
First you should listen to Larry Edelson (who recommends gold, agriculture, and shorting the dollar) and go long with average stocks (yes even high risk financials) untill the market reaches 9000-9500 for the DOW, then you sell all of your long positions and go short like Martin Weiss advices. Then when the market reaches a new bottom and picks back up do to hyper-inflation, you follow Tony Sagami’s advice and go for long term investments in China. Also don’t forget to pick back up on Larry’s advice because when that hyper-inflation occurs gold, agriculture, food, fresh water, and other commodities are in for a serious bull market. And you should definitely short the dollar because it will be in for some serious trouble! So in conclusion all of these men’s points are correct but the timing is usually left out. Leave a comment if you read this with some feed back. Hope it helps.
I still have stock. Those that I sold were at a great loss and they are now higher than at the time I sold them. I have two questions. Shall I get back in the market and establish stops? What inverse ETF’s are selling for $5.00? I bought your book. I am do not trust the bond market, so that does not leave me much choice. I would like to send you the list of stocks I still have and get an opinion on selling at a loss or keeping. I sold in February and wish I had not.
Max J. Huffman
How do I go about buying ETFs? Can you get back to me or point to where I go to do that. Also, would you recommend buy gold? Thanks for your help.
Martin,
I’ve subscribed to your newsletters off and on for the past several years, and always been inspired by the insights and passion you and your associates bring to the table.
I think it would be great if the average investor was able to see you and hear your views on a regular basis on popular networks such as FOX.
And you would surely help thousands more Americans to improve their financial futures !
Sincerely,
Bob
get rid of the Federal Reserve $ will be worthless within the next two years. Martin what do you think?
I saw some people are wondering; What are inverse ETF’s.?
Dr. Weiss;
Thanks for being our spokesman in Washington and providing such valuable insight into the marketplace.
I am primarily currently invested in; Cert of Dep, Money Mkt, & Muni Bonds. With the fear of inflation and/or currency fluctuations(primarily devaluation of uS$), should I be looking at “gold, silver or copper” to hedge myself?
Larry
You may be right. But, if you are the only person who is right, I’d rather make money by betting with the vast majority who are wrong, but rich. You are the lone wolf crying in the desert.
mr. martin weiss
yuor analysis of this market is 99% correct and timely.
your book is very true picture of our economy and how the president obama teams FIX will not work.
i am regularly reading it but not profited from your analysis.
i dont know where,when,which one INVERSE ETF I CAN BUY now.
ajit (aj)
What is the best way to invest $50,000 under the present circumstances Thanks John
where do I invest with confidense?
Please explain Contrarian ETFs.
Please explain Inverse ETFs.
Only have this week to move a considerable amount of money. Pls. reply. Thank you.
Thank you for all your information.
1) None of the banks you listed as A or B are in my town of Naples, FL, The closest one is in Miami which is about 150 miles away.
2) I couldn’t get a list of the stocks which were good? Can you please send it to me?
3) I already have a Money Market account with my Wachovia Bank.( I know it’s not a good bank.
4) If I send you a list of what stocks I have could you tell me which I should hold onto and so I could sell my others when the time is right and transfer the monies into a Treasury Money Market or Gov. Money Market.? My IRA is in stocks
I am not stock wise my stocks are with Wachovia Securities.
Sincerely
Pam Bainter
I haven’t finished the book yet, but it is teaching me many things I didn’t know.
I’m enjoying it.
Thanks, Ann Hillstrom
Martin-As I understood it you promised to set up model prtfolio. I may have missed it but where do I sign up. Jack W.
It was mentioned that there some inverse etf’s at abutm $5.00 per share, which ones are they?
I probably got out of Stocks and Stock funds a little early. I did leave a little money on the table, but when the market took its downturn I was in the GLD SPDR, The gold ETF that buys and stores actual Gold. I got in around $40.
I missed the Wall Street carnage and was watching my GLD climb. I took profits when Gold passed $1000/oz. That was at GLD=$90+.
Since then The exchange opened Options on GLD. I have Options enabled/approved for my Schwab accounts so I was long 10 call contracts at $90 strike. I sold them back as GLD dropped below the EMAs to recoup some money. It looks like Gold is nudging $900 again, so we may buy Options again to capture the next surge up.
Right now we are totally in Schwab Money Market. My advice for the short term is be cautious. If you have to, just dip the little toe in right now. If you understand Options, use them as a tool. Be ready to exercise your Options if the trade is in your favor. I can afford to buy 10 contracts in GLD if the price justifies it. I can also buy Puts to lock in a price and let the shares run.
Having my rahter large IRA robbed of 25% so far, then trying to put everything into CD’s, I find it very hard to find banks that will qualify plus enough of them to scatter my IRA funds and still be under 100,000 for each.We need answers! So how do we buy reverse ETF’s? my portfolio manager knows nothing about them.
With all the banks listed as in need of help here in central Michigan, where do I go? I need a checking account to pay my bills.
I am using Vanguard Prime Money Market for savings.
In the early 1980’s your advise saved my IRA. Thank you.
M. M. Gilbert
Dear Martin,
Thanks for all that you and your team do. You add sanity to understanding the markets. Also, Happy Birthday and I hope you are having a memorable day. I also have invested in some ETFs and am planning to add more — when the time is right. The irrationality of the market amazes me. The weak companies which are leading this rally make me dubious. Also, the higher highs and higher lows are closer together on lower volume, and this makes me think a steep cliff is approaching. WHEN is the question!
Happy Birthday.
Max D.
Hi Martin,
Well it seems to me that the treasury is having trouble printing enough money. Maybe I should get a printing press so I can do my civic duty and give ole Tim a hand. Then again the fed’s like to have the monopoly on criminal acts. I say collect all the pretty rocks you can find and save them because soon they will be worth more than $$$.
J/K about the printing thing, I know they don’t like competition.
Jeff
It will all come back in time don’t panic listen to martin and we will all get through it .
Thanks to martin and his team .
thanks martin .
The best time for inverse ETFs will be when both the market and the dollar start to tank.
I have positioned 15% of my IRA portfolio in gold coins (American Eagles) and set up the direct roll over from my IRA to Gold Star Trust in Texas I have the rest of my portfolio position in Short term US Treasuries (less than 1 Year) this was done in Nov 07 and I wanted to thank you for the advise I recieved sparing me the down turm of the market. My finanical advisor thought I was crazy to do such a move when the Dow was trading around 14,000. I have been reading your book doing my best to follow your advise. I’m pondering my next move, a position in inverse ETF’s. What percentage of your portfolio would you suggest be placed in ETF’s???
Mr. Weiss, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide has enlighten me as well as peak my interest in ETF’s that I never had any thought too. My adult life was always in areas of stocks, and not good ones most of the time. I was a foolish investor, however what I should say, getting your book I am eager to change my investing life style and reading your comments I believe it will change me. I would not deny that I am not fimiliar with inverse ETFs I will study up. I also look forward to your news letter and books. May you and your family be bless with God’s mighty grace, and that your worst day be your best days ahead. God Bless You and Your Family.
Interesting to read all the comments and particularly the questions that you are being asked. Now, where do I read your answers to all those questions? Thanks
i was thinking of buying some cd’s – any comments here? also – my variable annuity has 3 and one half/years before i can liquidate it – (it is in s and p and fidelity contra fund) – when i do liquidate it – how about layered cd ’s in highest rated banks – thoughts on this here! it is in it for 14 years and is 1/3 lowered than the ORIGINAL in vestment – only STUPID financial step that i have takened in my 56 and half years!!!!comments
Thank you for the freely shared information.most of my savings are in 403 a and bs. The retirement plans our company chose was AIG. I lost a lot of my savings even though I took the advice to place the funds into a more stable guaranteed 7% earning fund guaranteed by the state. My state is not definately going to ensure these type of funds now due to the economy. I am 65 and still working. Could I possibly move these to another similar fund as a cd or IRA without incurring a tax penalty ? State of confusion
Martin,
First and farmost i want to thankyou from the bottom of my heart for all you and your entire staff have done , which is to look out for the little guy, whom seem to be forgotten majority of the time. The very first time i ran into you is when you put out a video of the impending down fall of afew major financial banks. i went ahead and shorted Wellsfargo bank, HSBC bank and citi bank and made a hansome profit. i have now positioned myself in some of the contra etfs that are trading in their 52week lows and wait for euforia of wallstreet and washington to subside and reverse. For sure you are God sent, keep up the good work. God Bless.
Martin,
I have purchased your book, The Ultimate Survival Guide for Depression and have been reading your articles for some time. I have just heard this week that the demand for long term treasury bonds (30 yr) is very weak, as expected. There is already discussion of the 10 yr Treasury bond moving to 4% which will cause mortgage interest rates to rise. We know the inflation is inevitable, but when do you think this will start to occur?
For those folks with an equity line of credit that is based on prime or less, when will those rates really start rising? I have heard a CEO of a solid, stable bank (one that was deemed “no need” in the recent Federal Stress test), state that he expects prime to move to 7-9% in the next year. That seems like a drastic jump in a short time frame. What are your thoughts?
How can I buy ETFS and what do those initials mean?
Thanks for your great advice.
Where should I move my IRA?
Do you rate credit unions? Where would I find these ratings?
Keep up the good work!!!
Some of us already forgot we expected instances of sucker rallies along the way and began to doubt (and even showed great impatience). Nothing new is being done (as Martin keeps us updated always) and after throwing in so much money I expect to see some change in the statistics but trend is another matter, which has to be sustainable. After 17 months of bear market and news, it is natural to get excited over a small piece of good news, even doubting its credibility. Besides, a new President always has his honeymoon period. Basically, we are entering a phase to prepare us for the next big decline and it cannot come without many people getting excited and seeing the crisis over. Think of what it was like in 2007, nobody believes we can go into such a big bear market. We are now being prepared for the big DOWN, it can only happen when the majority is on the wrong side; we have to make sure you and your family do not belong to this group. Unfortunately, if most of us are right, this will not happen but it has to happen because things are not fixed.
Sincerely,
ETFs, like anything else, should be bought when they are oversold and sold when they are overbought, preferably with trailing stops because it is impossible to tell exactly when they will top or bottom or how long their prevailing trends will last.
Here are a few extreme ETFs as of today which are likely to change direction in the near future IMHO:
Overbought: CGW, DIG, EWC, EWI, FXC, IXJ, OIL, UNG, UYG, XLU
Oversold: CMD, DTO, DXD, SDP, TLT, UUP
FWIW.
I have some investments in corp and a few municipal bonds, some long term. My investment counselor tells me that if a company goes out of business, my bonds are insured and that, should the company or municipal default, the payoff would be 100% of my investment. Is this correct?
On Bloomberg radio this Sunday morning (5-11-09) expert after expert claim that this recession has ended and Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Their analysis is instant, your book “The Ultimate Depression Guide” took time to print and write and distribute. To me, your advice is sound, but has the recession ended?, or are we going into a deeper recession or depression? As you often point out those experts maybe should be in jail for their ratings, scams, fraud, and misdeeds. And if they are untruthful, what is their motive?
One thing that would give me confidence in contrarian investments would be the macd turning over on the daily chart and bearish divergences on a shorter time frame like the 233
I have a CD with ING and am considering moving some savings out of Bank of America and putting it with ING. I can’t find them on your best or worst list. Can you comment on ING’S strength?
Thank you!
I have bought your book and I’m learning a lot, thank you. Could you please comment on Credit Unions, I can’t find anything that rates them. Are any of them safer than banks or are they in the same category? Is there a list for them such as the ones which you have published for the BEST and WORST Banks?
Swiss Annuities have no early withdrawal penalties, currency switching options, can be held in IRA’s or cash and can be redeemed in about 2 weeks time to any bank in the world. They are recommended by the guys at Elliott Wave. Wouldn’t they be better than short term treasuries? Thanks Martin, you guys are doing great work in cyber space and in Washington.
Thank you Martin for all the work you are doing to let everyone know what is going on. This will undoubtedly be the only way to make up for losses and hopefully over time then some to get back on track. Jill
I really believe that we are going to have an economic collapse due to hyperinflation similiar to what happened in Germany in the 1920’s and what happened to Argentina in 2001. The Federal Reserve(which is NOT federal but a group of private international bankers) are going to drastically raise interest rates. They have to. They are ready to “pull the final plug” and destroy the dollar as we know it. China which owns most of our national debt is pulling out and buying gold like there’s NO tomorrow! I think it’s best to invest in hard assets especially silver which is the “poor man’s gold.” Also learn how to become more self-sufficient and learn how to plant a garden etc. Life during this 2nd Great Depression will FORCE us to be self-sufficient! I also believe that this nation’s days of “entitlements” (IE Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare, Food Stamps etc.) ARE OVER!!! This nation is BANKRUPT!!! I say invest in silver, gold and most importantly, get your Spiritual house in order because only repentance and Christian revival can help us reclaim our freedoms, liberties, and rebuild this nation on a local and state level once we collapse. Read 2 Chron 7:14. If we are bankrupt morally, then we will become bankrupt financially.
My local bank is rated C+, but I have been looking at Service Credit Union in my area. It seems to be a very sound banking institution and has a 4 star rating by the powers that rate credit unions. It seems that the fees and loan terms at Credit unions are far better than banks since these are not for profit institutions. Are credit unions with good ratings safe? What is a reliable credit union rating and who rates them?
HI,
I APPRECIATE THE CLARITY OF YOUR EXPLANATIONS AND ADVICE. I WAS ABLE TO FOLLOW YOUR REASONING , AND WILL ACT UPON IT.
SINCERELY,
TONI
I tried to find how my bank is rated, but you have no rating in weakest or strongest for Key Bank. How can I find out how they are rated.
I,
I APPRECIATE THE CLARITY OF YOUR EXPLANATIONS AND ADVICE. I AM A NEW INVESTOR. YOU HELPED ME GREATLY TO UNDERSTAND THE FUNDAMENTALS.
THANK YOU,
TONI
I am so eager to hear your opinion on about TIPS, pros and cons. I don’t think I ever heard you mention about them, even in your Safe Money Report.
I have ETF TIP for more than a year, and reinvesting the interests. The return is lately fluctuating between plus or minus one percent.
The market continues its rise. Tough for us that hold inverse ETF’s. My BIG question is:
1. If the market has not turned by the time the new uptick rules are adopted in June, what are we to do?
2. Some ETF’s like FAZ, are sinking below $5.00. Are these in danger of going under before the market turns?
I think the “condidence” factor is what’s driving the market right now. The gaining confidence is that the government will step in at any cost to rescue the troubled and bankrupt. As a result, more investors are piling back into the market putting off until another day, the devastating effects of unbridled government spending. Our government is well aware that the appearance of a recovering stock market has the same effect on the public as anti-depressant drugs have on bi-polar individuals. As long as they can purvey a sense of calm, then they (the democrats) have a greater chance at pushing through their massive fiscal packages.
It does seem as if we are in the eye of a Cat. 5 financial hurricane. Listening to the media pundits one would believe that the clouds are breaking, the winds have moved on, and all is well, in fact it’s downright clear out. And they are a convincing bunch! Martin, do they really believe this? Or is it just a case of selling their goods and hoping we buy so they make money.
I know one thing for sure from living on the coast of Florida, the 2nd half of the storm is always worst than the first. Now’s the time to hunker down , not set out the patio furniture.
Could you respond to an article in the New York Times last week (May 3) where Allan Meltzer sees inflation as the danger ahead and invokes the 1980 crisis? I quote: “Besides, no country facing enormous budget deficits, rapid growth in the money supply and the prospect of a sustained currency devaluation as we are has ever experienced deflation. These factors are harbingers of inflation.”
Quebec Canada
I Martin,
Yes, we appreciate your work, very very much!
Maybe that your readers would appreciate to read a list of principals u.s. etfs and their nature.
Thank you very much.
Antoine
First, I want to say thank you to YOU and every person that works with and for you.
I bought 5 of your Survival Guides and gave them to family and friends. I should have bought more.
Your staff was GREAT , especially when I was having difficulty finding my receipts.
Second, Thank You
Thank you so much I had enjoyed your blog. Now, I would like to hear from you that it is the time to buy DRYS (DryShips Inc.) or not. Please help and teach me, give me your opinion because I bought many share of it, then it is now fall down a lot, since DryShips Inc. has reported they will issu more share to collect more money (capital) to pay out more of Dryships Inc. debt. I think that it is good news that they will pay out more debt that they have and it will improve company’s financial status, then why the share of market of DRYS become fall down so heavier.
Thank you so much for your time and attentions. I am loking forward to hearing fromyou as soon as possible.
Best regards,
takusan
MARTIN,
I am a subscriber to several of your services, and am suffering at entry into several reverse ETF’S too soon. I do understand and believe that your analysis and the facts that you use to support your arguments are correct… what concerns me is that it appears the govenment, through it’s shady surrogates ( Goldman Sachs etc)seems to be controlling the stock market, and the gold market…
There have been rumors and more about cartels and government groups that run the markets.
What weight do you put into these arguments?
TK
Dear Martin,
I have followed your advice and sold my water front home in Boca Raton at the begining of 2006 and I got 1 million for it. The flipper that bought it spent $400K fixing it up and now the house has been foreclosed on and the bank is asking $599K for it. Unfortunately I had to live somewhere so I bought another home for $500K free and clear and the rest of the money I built a nice retirement home in Costa Rica on the Pacific Ocean free and clear. My biggest mistake was buying another home in Florida as that home is now worth only half what I paid for it. I should have rented but my wife with all her pet dogs did not want to do that. Also back in 2001 when gold hit around $258.00 an ounce and silver $4.10, I put all my money in gold and silver. I have held on ever since. In my 401K I followed your advice and got out of stocks in 2006 and have been in the money market only as the choices in my 401K do not have anything else you recommend. The bond fund is just a general long bond fund. I am the only one in my company who has had a positive return for the last two years. I plan to retire to Costa Rica as I see the writing on the wall in the US. The taxes and living costs would prevent me from retiring. I can live a nice quality of life there for half what it cost to live in Florida. Six of our friends and Florida neighbors also bought in the same community in Costa Rica so we will have our friends with us in retirement. My one life insurance annuity I did not pay much attention to until you recommended inverse long bond funds. I remembered that was a choice in my annuity so I switched to RYJAX, the Rydex inverse long bond fund at the end of last year and that has been doing great. My plan since I am a Chemical Engineer in Manufacturing is if I get laid off I will retire right away. I do not want to be a greeter at Wallmart. There are no more Jobs available in my field for manufacturing engineers in the US. So thanks for saving my retirement so I can retire early. Sincerely , Steve Angona of Boca Raton and future Guanacaste, Costa Rica retiree
Martin…..how did your govt. presentation go in DC?
Thank you, thank you for giving me sound specific advice on what to do with our retirement nestegg during this time of massive economic crisis and change. Thanks especially for teaching us where to find a safe harbor and to look for opportunities.
I had resisted selling our beach condo but you and Bob Prechter convinced me that I had better not wait. It is now listed at a very aggressive price and the many showings in the past 3 weeks indicate that we will sell soon.
We have moved our investments into money markets, t-bills and CDs in safe banks. But we have an annuity with OM Life whose rating has dropped to C (thestreet.com). We have recently made a 10% penalty free withdrawal but can’t take another until 1/1/10. I’m hesitant to cash it all in because of the 14% penaltly but worried that we could loose it all due to the declining financial picture. What would you do?
Now to answer your question. To pursue contrarian investments with confidence now, I would need to receive specific buy-sell advice from you regularly on inverse ETFs since that is what interests me most.
Love your informative site, I have a question, My wife has a adjustable rate mortgage is it a good time to lock it down? Thanks for your concern. Dado
Bear Market rally stronger and longer than expected but still a Bear Market rally! Sold equities that regained majority of losses and bought reverse ETF’s holding for next pullback. Subscrber for over 20 years.You weren’t always right but are right on now in this major crisis!
DR. Martin Weiss,
I wish to express something that I don’t LIGHTLY give, “MY HIGHEST RESPECT FOR YOUR FATHER AND YOU”.
As one who wields the Sword of Truth, I know that all Manipulators, but especially in Economics, can only feel hatred due to your revealing their nefarious Scams at all levels of Finance, PLUS the breakdown of MORAL Ethics in this great Democratic Country.
It is our duty to Life and Divinity to Stand Strong.
God is already Blessing You,
Truly,
SEAMYSTIC
Your question can only have one answer:
You and Mike have given great advice, founded on solid analysis, your father’s invaluable experience and your own acumen, and the only things left unsaid are when to buy / what to buy.
Keep up the good work.
It would be nice to have several graphics to illustrate how the economy is doing month-to-month e.g. Credit Card defaults, Commercial Real Estate defaults, vacany’s, Disposable income, Unemployment real and reported, Retail Sales, velocity of money etc????
The idea is to understand—- is the economy improving or is it hype.
And the final question will be if the economy is inflated back to life by Gov. Spending when does this bubble break or will it have been a worth while gov investment?
I think the WW2 spending turned out to be an unintended good investment in US industry resulting in 30+ years of growth because of superior products and superior production technology. Now we are subprime securitizers.
I am no economist, just my interpetation of economic events.
I cant tell hype vs actual improvement??
jim
Reston VA
Martin… Isn’t it likely that the rise in the market is the first leg of price rises caused by the massive inflation by the fed? All that new money has to hit somewhere, and it seems likely that it is hitting the market. The dollar has taken a big hit this past week, dropping through a critical level. Do you still advise sitting in cash?
We’re 65 years old. With the Feds presses running, inflation is certain. Your Survival Guide suggests selling our home before the equity plummets further and interest rates start climbing. During inflation is renting better than owning?
Hi Martin and Team,
Interested in learning more. Thanks.
Greg
Martin,
I came into a windfall in summer 2007 I invested in the market just as things began to deteriorate…lost $. Then I subscribed to your Safe Money and Contrarian Port., invested in SKF and made some money then SKF magically crashed and it has been downhill ever since. (too perfect not to have been manipulated)Conversely since that moment stocks have been soaring. I agree that this is a fantasy (BEAR) rally.
SKF inverse financials are CHEAP now. QUESTION: Will SKF rise again or is there danger? Thanks for your views alwaus backed by solid analysis. JH Ab Cap
Always grateful for your knowledge and wisdom and I am with your contrarian portfolio and am waiting for it to demonstrate its predicted benefits. My other portfolio is long and my hope is that I can take my profits, take the short side and await the real bottom; however, even with your now contrarian views, you must have a short list of equities which at their present prices you feel will continue to gain whatever the market. Finally, some of the more recent ETFs symbols of the inverses are not not known(i.e, the inverse long bond symbol etc.) and your help along this line in appreciated.
I am a single mom with a daughter at home, but the problem is I am in my 60’s and working because I feel I cannot retire. My assets were divided due to recent divorce. I wanted to join your Contrarian Fund and do it proportionally, but am not allowed due to the amount I have. I do not know what to invest in. I have an Ameriprise financial advisor who did well for me in the bullish years but now I do not trust his judgement or my own. I have a $25,000 mortgage and $10,000 auto loan I’m paying off and would not even think of retiring for the next 3-4 years. I want to move from Ohio to some other location at that time.
God Bless you, Martin! What would we do without your good judgement?
An interesting statistic was buried in the unemployment number last week that for some reason was hailed as the latest arrow in the quiver that this Depression is OVER ??????????? The statistic: “Job Leavers”, those job holders who intentionally “leave their job”. These people, for the most part, leave their jobs because they are either #1 – confident of getting another one or, #2 – already have another job lined up. Well, the statistic came in at 6.5%, thus TYING the ALL TIME LOW set in 1982 (boy, those were the good days, weren’t they???). This data goes back to 1964 so this is a pretty significant, under exposed statistic. Usually in good times this statistic hovers in the 10%-12% range. The long and short of the story; this thing isn’t even close to being over or near the bottom. Hang on gang, it’ll be a fun ride for those of us who have followed the Weiss mantra.
Question: Do you feel having your major investments through “TradeKing” is safe or would “Scottrade” be wiser?
Thanks
Lyman
I have read a few questions with the same query. If one has never invested in stocks or ETF’s or signed on with a broker. Where do you begin? It seems as if brokers and/or banks ask personal financial questions before they consider to do business with the consumer. What if I just wanted to try as little as $100.00 to get started???
Hi Martin
I was wondering if you have any opinion on the contents of the book “The Creature from Jekyll Island” which has convinced me that the Fed is the source of all evil!!.
I bank at members own credit union. my savings statment says share amount…….. should I move to a regular bank?? I can’t find credit unions on your list of safe banks.
Dear Martin:I have not written earlier as you know I have been with you almost ten(10) years and my trust of you and your guidence has not faultered. I wish I were under 80 again and would try your contra suggestions but am too old and too uncertain of my ability to perform properly in that area. I can not spend enough time on yhe computer to gain confidence of new approaches. I await your further guidance. Meanwhile I will be deep in Treasuries and your other published recommendations. Meanwhile I did get rid of 15 of my 25 stocks, downvalued the other 10 which I have held since the 1970 market slide.(about 10% now). Sorry but we have been married 38 years and I believe know how each other works-the stocks that is. Scold me if you wish. Thanks much for all you do. Regards, Jack Lorenz
Martin:
When market conditions are favorable based on four indicators that I use and have proved successful in the past, I turn to those stocks that register new high prices over the past 52-week period and screen them carefully through a seriers of parameters that test their investment worthiness. I use the Yahoo.com website finance link, and type in the words “advances and declines” in the search box and through another link am able to get a spread of four columns, among which list the new high lists of stocks on the NYSE, AMEX, Nadsaq, and Bulletin Board. Investors Business Daily, usually on page B4, lists the new high stocks, but apparently does not include those stocks on the Bulletin Board in those lists. On the Yahoo.com site, the number of new highs achieved in the most 52-week period, generally average in a range between 80 to 110 stocks. Would you be so kind as to tell me how I can further explore the Bulletin Board to determine the specific names or symbols of new highs that appear on the Bulletin Board so I can check them against my screening process to determine which of them may be investment-worthy candidates in favorable market climates. I tend to avoid buying strong performers in weak or mixed markets, because stocks reaching new highs tend to go in the direction of plunging markets no matter how impressive their revenues and earnings. Also, Martin, I was impressed with your analysis of bank stocks long before the bailouts and stress test confirmed weakness in that sector. Your response is most appeciated, especially if it can address the issue of the Bulletin Board stocks which I raised in this communication.
Sincerely, David Brown.
Martin,
Would you consider setting up a Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio for your Australian readers? I know many Australians who subscribe to your newsletters and am sure they would be interested in an Australian Contrarian.
Peter Sullivan
I too believe what you are telling us Martin but I am new to investing and wouldnt have a clue on how to buy etfs . I trade online and have no trust in stockbrokers . Also I live in Australia and trade on the asx. Any info you could send on how to trade etfs would be greatly appreciated. Also thankyou for your newsletters which have woken me up to what is going on in the world, you have probably saved me from financial ruin or at least high blood pressure as I have sold my investment properties and have cash in the bank thankyou Martin
Hi Martin
I would like to know which are most safe and weak credit unions. Also I did not see ING Direct bank on your list of weak and strong banks. what is its rating?
thanks
Paul
Thanks Martin for your many insightful posts.
What do you think of investment opportunities in Asia ?
Hope you can elaborate on likely chain of events that may happen when the Treasury Bubble burst.
Martin
I dont get it. You say the US bond market is toast. I agree. They cant pay the debt back so either they default or devalue the dollar.No other choice.THe only alternative to me is gold. They wont default. When the bond market crashes why would you put your money in dollars because others see the dollar is being diluted thus getting out of bonds. So what if interest rates go up they will print even more dollars.You can see China sees it coming and bailing out.Thereore explain why such a high % in t-bills. The dollar is toast.
I have just received your book that was recommended by Lyn Summers who runs Stockcourse in Australia.I live on the Sunshine coas t in Queensland and am trying to retrieve some of the dreadful losses that I have sustained using the buy and hold ridiculous strategy that I have religiously stuck to!! Like an idiot it now appears. I am new in trading options in the states- anywhere for that matter. I am rather naive and abslolutely stunned at the content of your book. I haven’t put it down since it arrived on Friday. I look forward to hearing more from you and although our conditions in Australia are slightly different to yours in the States, many are mirrored and much of your advice and recommendations are so valid in this country as well.
Cheers
Martina
What do you think of Dr. Paul’s Audit the Fed bill, HR 1207? Do you think it will help?
Where does one move their IRA Mutual Funds for safety.
Hello Martin,
Your Safe Money Report and your emails have helped me through the past 3 years. I exited the stock market 2 years ago and have money in 13 week Treasury Bills. I invest and sell real estate for income as I am a retired senior widow. I have one piece of property that is not paid for and the mortgage on my home. No other debts. I am wondering what you think of my using the Treasury Bills to pay off this property as the note on it balloons in mid-June. I have it listed for sale and hope to sell it soon. Would I be better off refinancing the property provided I can be approved for that? Treasury Bills paid me a decent income a couple of years ago. My thinking is that since they are not paying anything in interest that I could use the cash from them to pay off the lot in this resort community and not have monthly payment to make on it and when It sells I would get my money out of it again. Any advice you can give me, I would appreciate.
Blessings,
Marianne Webb
First: Thank you Martin for all you have done for the general public and helping us to secure our financial positions.
I have watched this WS mkt and the PPT [Plunge protection team ] do “financial magic” for the past almost eight years now! If you want to count “E-Z Al’s” policy we could include the past 15-20 years! I have come to only one conclusion and that is ‘This is the most dangerous stock market conditions I have ever witness in my life time. But that’s my opinon.
I think the mkt will go up to about 8850 to 9250 before going down. [ However, I have already placed buy orders for inverse etfs. In addition, I also incorporate the use of LEAPS to enhance my earnings. Again, I thank you for that information. ] So if I’m right I’ll be in and if I’m wrong I can change the order to a day order and still grab the lion share of the decline! And I have you and your teams to thank for teaching me how to think for myself and to question Wall Street’s advice.
I also think the market will drop to about 5000 and rebound to about 7500 and then climax to a fall of 3000 +/- 500 pts. I think a following of 1928-32 was about 85% a similar decline would leave the stock mkt at a level of 2850 – 3250. Again this is my opinion based on what I have learned.
The time line for all of this to happen is from 2009 to 2012, first half of 2013. So there you have my thoughts on our future as I prepare for these events to unfold.
After the market melt down is over I’ll be looking forward to long term growth investments. I may not benifit from them but my grand childern should do well. [ I hope ]
Again, thank you Martin.
Henry Joe
I am in Australia. I have half my retitement funds in reserve bank 2yr bonds and the other half in cash in a major bank here which has a govt guarantee to $1000,000.00
I appreciate your advice Martin as you have reinforced many of might ideas on contrarian investing.
However , do you have a more Australian centric advice service?
Many thanks
I am almost through your book and share a lot of your basic philosophies. I haven’t used ETFs because I do not feel my understanding of them is sufficiently developed yet but, am working on ehancing my understanding of them. What I would like to know is what trends should I be tracking that will provide indicators for the extent of the decline? Thanks
Hi Martin,
It is obvious we cannot only talk about investments…. I am over 70 and seen it all before…. Afterall, we are talking about a dramatic lack of confidence in the markets, banks, and in our governments’ ability (willingness?) to end the crisis right here and now!
One of your new associates sent the circular on the substantial GOLD RESERVES held in each country. Mega-tonnes of this metal is held by US Treasury. Does this make sense??? When a household had overspent and overborrowed but sits on heavy bars of gold wouldn’t it make good economic sense to sell the gold, reduce or get out of debt and balance the books? That would END THE CRISIS in the household and it surely would do the same all over the world!
There is something fishy going on and people are taken for fools. Luckily, this time around we have the internet and quick communication. Technology allows us to be informed and act in a positive manner to counteract those who would like to see the humanity reduced to the stone age, wouldn’t you say?
Can you enlighten us with your views, Martin?
Cheers, Frank
The music is playing and the dance is merry in the ballroom of the Titanic tonight. It is not a happy thing to invest in the assumption of misery and apocalypse approaching, and I take no pleasure in it but it feels right. What else can we do but survive? I am moving into gold and inverse ETF also and yet it will be sad to see another downturn knowing what it means for so many people. Hopefully those buying guns and ammo and hiding 100 lb pounds of rice and stores of legacy (non hybrid) seeds in secret places and installing rain barrels and wood stoves are over reacting, but who really knows that? I can’t say I am sure they are crazy, not anymore.
To answer the question, however, I agree that inflation will come eventually because the reason Bernake is buying his own treasury bonds with dollars still wet off the press is to intentionally cause inflation as a cure for deflation. I can see falling prices are happening now. I assume gold is about to rise as a result, and soon, but I rather favor gold mining stocks to metal. I would like to hear opinons on that. Inverse ETF’s on the S&P500 and Dowjones are be my first picks. If gold heads up the US dollar will follow it for the next decade no matter how much China (and other countries) would like to see alternate reserve currancies etc. I am still holding Euros in Germany but I have to believe the dollar will go up soon.
I am a newbie on the block. I need help. After suffering a 55% decrease in my 401-k from a previous employer, I transferred the remaining balance to a self-managed IRA with Ameritrade. Since business is lousy for me I have plenty of time to focus on my investments. What areas do you think I should start investing until I become more experienced and knowledgeable? I did read your book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”. It is informative and interesting.
I have a deferred fixed annuity, with a guaranteed 6.86% interest rate for 10 years. It is coming due in 2 years. It’s with ING and earlier I was concerned about their stability, after the Dutch government infused a big stimulus payment. I asked and was told the annuity was safe, and anyway the state insurance commission would pay if the company reneged. I even callled the state insurance commision & they told me they would cover me up to $100,000.00. After reading Chapter 4 of your new book, I have learned more about the state commission & it is opposite what I’ve been told elsewhere. I could do a 1035 exchange to USAA (a safer company) & take the early penalty hit. Or I can take out the interest payment each year with no penalty. Then should I annuitize or not (a couple of sources say not to). Should I hang on for two more years or get out now?
We have been feeling so uneasy about what the govt is doing. Your book answered many of our questions and provided a way to be proactive and stop feeling so helpless. We’ve decided to move forward with our plan to start a neighborhood book club. Your book is so important that we plan to purchase one for each member that RSVPs. We might even send one to Glenn Beck. Beck should interview you!!!
We want to share how you saved the nest egg retirement funds of two retired school teachers living in Merced, CA:
After months of repeated warnings in your SMR, we finally went to our UBS broker and told him to sell our ‘thousands’ of shares of Citigroup (at $52 share). He insisted that we were making the mistake of a lifetime. We stood our ground and sold all but $5000 worth. When the check came, we emphasized that we wanted this money put into the very safest, most liquid type of account–BUT the money got locked up for months in Pimco and Nuveen. To make matters worse, we were in the middle of a home remodeling project with the inside of our home completely gutted. The plan had been to live in our cabover camper for a few weeks while contractors worked inside. Because the money was locked up, work on the house stopped. Contractors had to wait for their money. And since we couldn’t stand the smell of the 20 year-old insulation that was exposed throughout the house, we were forced to sleep in our camper and live and cook on the patio for 6 months!!! Needless to say, we lived in fear of having lost all our money eventhough the broker insisted we would get it back ‘eventually’. We had a house we couldn’t sell OR live in!!!
We did finally get a check from UBS for the principal (no interest)! Some of the contractors that we liked were no longer available and we still have 2 torn up bathrooms to complete. What a nightmare! We just keep reminding ourselves that if it weren’t for you, we never would have had ANY money to worry about during those months. We just sold the remaining Citi stock.
When we joined the MCP we opened a small brokerage account with Fidelity. We are following the MCP advice ‘to the letter’ and are hopeful that profits are around the corner! We want to move all funds out of UBS. We plan to check out your Capital Mgmt Group.
We owe you a big THANK YOU (and loads of hugs) !!!
G’DAY MARTIN, CHRIS FROM OZ HERE I ENJOY YOUR INFO AND IT LARGELY MAKES A LOT OF SENSE TO ME. I SUFFERED IN FEB AND NOV LAST YEAR AND MARCH THIS YEAR AND DIDN’T WANT TO BACK UP FOR MORE OF THE SAME SO I SOLD 2/3 OF MY PORTFOLIO A WEEK AGO I NOW FIND MYSELF $I00K WORSE OFF AND DON’T KNOW WHETHER TO LAUGH OR CRY SHOULD I PUT MY PRIDE ASIDE AND BUY THEM BACK HIGHER OR WATCH AND WAIT? KIND REGARDS CHRIS
Dear Martin,
I am new to the investment industry, but reading your newstellers along with other material I have learned quiet a bit. However, I do have a question. I am thinking in buying a couple of bank stock since they are still low. Those stock are of Bank of America and Gold and sachs. Would you recommend to buy those stocks?
I have gotten half way through your book. If your Dad had to go through all that stuff
why should this time be different? One question I have is how safe is our money in our Schwab IRA account. Wife and I both have one and they are both in cash except 10% of hers is in “GLD”. According to her last statement our cash Schwab money market account earns .02%!! We need something to make some bucks to grow our retirement acct’s. We are both retired and draw social security. The rate at which our good Uncle Obama is spending money we just may not have S. S. in the future! we could sure use some good ideas to increase our nest egg.
Regards,
Richard
Richard
It is obvious to me that we are operating in a totally corrupt system. Having said that, I don’t see how the banks can fail when they are propped up by the fed which simply can print unlimited amounts of money and change all the accounting rules whenever it wants. No matter how inept the Bankers are how could anyone fail when their friends Benranke & Geihtner are going to give them UNLIMITED amounts of money? Obama seems intent on pursuing this path also. What do they care if it eventually causes inflation. They’ll all stiill be rich.
what is the magic percentage you think i should sell anything i have a profit in and what is the percentage to cut your losses,also if you want to buy puts on this market , which ones would you recommend thanks
I don’t believe for one second that the danger is over…….the exact opposite is happening….we are just getting started to Destruction of our money….our lifestyles….our future financial security….and possibly a political climate we would never have imagined…….I Pray That It Is Only Our Money In Danger…………..but it doesn’t look that way………..Marshal Law????? Civil Unrest???? Where to go or what to do is hard to keep your brain wraped around…..to many years of being nationalized….socialized…..politicized…….and on it goes……Americans Wake Up and Fight For What Is Ours….It Will Be Much Harder To Take Back Than To Defend It NOW…………. I am just a lowly tax paying, law abiding American….who cares what I think………….
I have read Washington insiders are preparing for their own security……shouldn’t we??
What to do with USD’s I don’t know….Gold, they will surely confiscate and or fix the price to suite the powers that be……certainly not us mere citzens…..I am almost afraid to express this as I don’t feel free to speak freely anymore.
A new bill almost surely on its way to Obama’s desk….will change how Justice will be different for different types….The Protected Class’s of hate crimes…..all the way to protecting the pediphiles from harm…..the punishment for so called “Thought Crime” will be terrifying…..we need to write and call our Congressmen and Senators NOW….This must not become law………………. So I certainly don’t see Peace and Safety in our Future…..SUDDEN DESTRUCTION MUCH MORE LIKELY
Martin,
Are series EE Bonds a safe investment? I have inherited them from my mother. There is quite a bit of money in them. They stop getting interest (4%) right now in 2016. Should I cash them in and buy another investment? They are never talked about by anyone. I will have to pay taxes on them when I cash them in.
I think you are right on with your advice. Inverse Etf’s are the right way to go but it might be a little early. I am in the Middle of your book and agree with what you are saying. Everyone should buy it and read it!
—– Original Message —–
From: CJ
To: Martin D. Weiss Ph.D.
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2009 5:36 PM
Subject: Re: Thanks for Purchasing My Book . . .
G’day Martin,
Thank you for the offer to purchase your book for free (via Refund Voucher), however, I couldn’t purchase it at all as I live in Australia, and it’s apparently only for people who live in the US and on that side of the planet, so I cancelled my attempted order.
I also wanted to add my name to your petition list, to help, but saw once again I needed to be living over there to do that, – so again I could not.
Perhaps there’s something you can do to make it so that people in other countries, who also care deeply about what’s happening to innocent, hardworking people in your country, can put their name down on your petition. Surely every name helps, especially if it’s coming from overseas, and it should help show your government just how widespread and serious the problems are. As stated in your previous email, I too cannot understand why your government is choosing to help out and save the ‘filthy’ rich, who have well and truly proven that they can get by just fine, and weather any storm that comes along, – instead of helping and saving the seriously in need and struggling people of its country. It doesn’t make sense. Surely the poor outweigh the rich? That’s got to mean something.
I think our country is heading the same way as yours just not as bad yet, but we can see it happening, and yes, our government is also trying to help bail out rich people in suddenly struggling companies. Unemployment, crime, and deaths (suicides) are increasing daily. Something’s got to be done and soon, – but what? Over here, we have our biggest bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, lowering interest rates, but the rate cuts are not being passed on to the people at all / with a minor few financial institutions who pass on a very minimal amount of the %, eg: RBA rate cut 1% and only .25% or less is passed on. I heard on the radio today that the National Australia Bank made a profit of “just” 2.6 Billion dollars, – but are not promising to pass on any more rate cuts. GREEDY GREEDY PIGS. It’s disgusting, and there’s no loyalty to their customers, – but the banks / financial institutions insist on and expect loyalty from them, and too bad that they keep creating and hiking up fees and charges. I’d like to see what would happen if people started boycotting them. It’s the same with all these other companies who are making large profits, but charging an absolute fortune for the products / services, which are definitely not worth the amount being asked. Martin, you just think, if people got together in groups / neighbourhoods / suburbs, and started boycotting companies that are ripping people off and instead supported their local country owned companies / services, say for 1-2 weeks (or more if needed), how long would it take before those companies started feeling the pinch, got the picture, and began lowering prices so they were fair? It can be done with any company / business / shop / service / etc., and will have the same winning result. It will definitely keep them honest and in line. POWER TO THE PEOPLE. IT’S UP TO US TO SAVE OURSELVES – BECAUSE NOBODY ELSE WILL.
Here in Australia, people say it’s the small Australian owned businesses that are the backbone of our country, and it’s true. It’s the same in any country, and the people, and the government, should support and patronize them to help keep their country going strong.
Also over here recently, our prime minister sent out monetary payments to people in need (as well as people not so much in need) to help them, and to boost the economy, but many people blew the payment on drugs, alcohol, / just plain wasted it. It would have been better for him to have sent out food / grocery vouchers, petrol vouchers, and rethinking the % rate for income tax, such as making it 10% for EVERYBODY, especially the rich who in most cases pay less than that, while the middle to lower wage earners pay 20%, 30%, and more. See what I mean? And don’t get me started on the OBSCENE amounts of income many executives, politicians, CEOs, etc., etc., etc., receive per annum / month / week, or golden handshakes, which we are constantly seeing and hearing about on tv and radio. It’s more than most of us will ever see in our lifetime!!! Who needs that much money anyway? And they can’t take any of it / or what they’ve purchased with them when they die. Instead there are too many who are constantly feeding their hungry, enormous ‘Greed Factor’, – whilst their care factor is 0, and not thinking of their fellow humans who are struggling and in dire need of help. Everybody on this planet only needs a certain amount of money with which to help them survive. We need to be financially secure (not rich), healthy, and happy, doing our best to live in peace and harmony. Can you tell me which of the ‘Wars’ has been the be all and end all answer? None of them, otherwise we’d all be living in peace and harmony now. And why is it that so many ‘Brilliant’ doctors and GPs only keep us temporarily healthy? And then there’s the ‘murdering’ pharmaceutical companies. How many deaths are they responsible for, knowing well and truly that their medications are lethal to many people, as well as causing the most horrible side effects, which in some cases see people suicide. Again, care factor 0, greed factor enormous.
Ok I have to end now, so I wish you all the best.
Highest Regards,
CJ.
Hello Martin. I never quite believe that someone will answer me personally, but you sound so genuine, that I’m going to ask you some advice, if I may please.
I am Irish and living in Ireland.
I purchased a condo’ 2 1/2 years ago in Chicago. The price was $435,400. and with short sales and foreclosures in the building, which is large, condos’ similiar to mine are now selling at around $230,000.00. I have a tenant until end 2010, but am supplimenting my mortgage by $600 a month. I have been advised to short sell but this wll mean that I will lose $100,000.00!
I am single, supporting my mother, and the option of losing $100,000.00 is devistating as you can imagine. However, I’m afraid to hold on in case I get into financial trouble and end up even worse off.
I would so appreciate your advice. The condo’ I’m told is in a good situation in Chicago, on East Erie Street, River North. Let me know if I can give you any other info’ which would be of help.
Looking forward to hearing from you and many thanks in anticipation.
Gwen Fraser
We almost there.
I trusted you.
I bet on you my family future even in Japan.
Now today I’m convinced I’m on the right direction.
God bless us all who trust you!
Thank you for your constant advice and support to me.
I have also seen many intellectual articles on http://www.marketoracle.co.uk that share the similar bearish views toward this two-month US rally. Many even offer theoretical basis or citations[Friedrich.A.Hayek/Austrian school, Melchior Palyi/Chicago economist(1969), and more ...] that make me deeply trust your observation.
I sincerely hope and believe that we are in the eye of hurricane, with much of the inverse ETFs in the portfolio. If you may provide your future observation along with the rough time-frames, I believe the readers of this website can be much more helped. If the next phase of the storm can only come by next quarter, (or even next year) we need to know to be better prepared.
When facing this long-rally, anxious time, can you let us know a little bit more about how is your Million-Dollar Portfolio? Can we expect even lower prices to get into the “Contrarian” further more.
Thank you indeed. Your website is always the “first” site I checked each day.
Inverse ETF seems to be a great vehicle in a down market. However, a lot of people believe it is dangerous to hold on inverse ETF because of the decay. The use inverse ETF as short-term trading vehicles but not as vehicles that people should hold. What are your views on this?
It is an interesting time we are in regarding the financial trends. I am very much a novice trying to learn and understand the psyche of market participants and pundits. A few weeks ago, I took monies in an IRA rollover from a 401K and purchased just under $35K worth of 4 Canadian Royalty Trusts(I am aware of the 2011 tax changes) rather than domestic trusts. Being a petroleum geologist, I am aware of the risks and uncertainities within the industry. I am also aware of what the current administration wishes to do with taxes and incentives which may well crush the family run and small independents in this country. But that is for another day. It is my belief that energy prices will hold or continue to rise based on what the government does to the industry tax structure. Am I being overly oppomistic, or should I be researching other funds such as the inverse ETF’s?
Dear Sir,
you have invested USD 1 Million of your own money. Can you give me an indication how your investments have developed since starting point. Unfortunately I missed the deadline to join and therefore my question, will it be possible to join also now?
Best regards,
Josef Berger
I’m holding John Hancock annuitities that are guaranteed to grow 5% a year for income purposes only. If I take the money out I lose any 5% gains and only receive the current balance based on the stock market which would be a huge loss based on my original investment. what to do?
HAVE READ LOTS OF COMMENTS, BUT DOES YOUR ADVICE APPLY WORLD WIDE OR ONLY U.S.A.
HOW DO I GET A COPY OF YOUR ‘SURVIVAL GUIDE’ IN AUSTRALIA
I have a money market account at a credit union, do I need to pull it out? Where is the safest place for savings and checking accounts?
I don’t know how to invest in stocks, bonds, and etc.
What advise would you give a couple who is heavy with credit card debt? The man wants to cash in his retirement to pay off all the debt, and then start saving to build up retirement money.. The woman doesn’t want that. Please advise.
I read your article of 5-11 titled “5 Economic Storms” and have a comment for you. I am a little suspect of your use of graphs. I am a pilot with an aeronautical engineering degree, know a little math of course, and from that I know graphs can be deceiving depending on their layout and time frame used. While I DO believe you are right (in my gut), I want to be looking at objective data to pass my own smell test. As an example, for your first graph you showed unemployment and by graphing only 3 years and showing the number of jobs data separated by 2 million on the vertical with a spread of 6 million jobs, you have a graph that makes it look like jobs are falling off the chart! But you have zoomed in so “tight”, the graph can be deceiving in my view! Even if I rounded to 6 million jobs lost over the 3 year span, that’s 6/138=.043 or 4.3%. Am I not right? If you happen to be one of the 6 million people losing a job, that’s a huge figure, I know. What is important is how this level of losses has equated in previous cycles. How does this level and pace of job losses compare to past downturns (recessions or depression) and how does it graph over a longer time frame? You can’t hide the losses, there is a definite slope down. And I agree the “modest” decrease in the rate of job losses is celebrating on false hope, but I want to know whether the roof is falling, or the entire sky! My gut is with you, I pulled out of the market a year ago January before I even started reading your informative articles. And I haven’t gotten back in! But I am leery of reading too much into the negative as much as I am confident the government is reading too much into the positive! Can you possibly give an article on historical perspective in the future that addresses these issues? Thank you.
Hi, you’ve argued against bailouts, but if AIG went under, the internal AIG memorandum indicates that insurance companies around the world might collapse, with a domino effect on other businesses. Don’t you think that America has a responsibility to avoid systemic risk in the world, considering the problem largely started due to the greed of US bankers and negligence of US regulators. I think US bailouts to avoid systemic risk should be the USA’s way of saying “sorry” to the world. We haven’t heard an American yet say that, and this is the second economic catastrophe you given us in less than 100 years! If you want the world to EVER trust and do business with you again, you might want to think on that.
I appreciate your warnings and clarify so much. This is the only resource I’ve come across that’s been so real about the dangers in our economy. I have one question about this whole government deception we’re witnessing. Will flooding the banks with endlessly printable dollars keep the stock markets afloat?
Do you know of a source that lists ratings on Credit Unions that are similar to those provided by thestreet.com on banks?
How’s about DRYS?, It is now the best time to buy? I would hear your opinion. Thank you so much for your time and attentions. I am looking forward to hearing from you as soon as possible.
I think your analysis of of 5 of the 6 economic storms is excellent. But, I am even more concerned with what I would refer to as the 6th storm, the potential fiscal failure of government at all three levels, municipal, state (11 states), and Federal. I don’t believe the body politic has any idea of what kind of fiscal mess that govenrment has gotten itself into. California, where I live, is facing a substantial fiscal failure. Many of our cities and counties are beginning to look at the Chapter 9 bankruptcy case in Vallejo, CA as a possible alternative to deal with the obligations they have that they cannot afford for their baby boom generation employees. I think the Pete Peterson Foundation has done an excellent job of developing a readable analysis of the problem at the federal level. I suggest that your readers go to the Peterson Foundation website and take a look at their 2009 report to the public.
In practical terms all of the problems that you have accurately pointed out on Wall Street and the behavior of consumers has taken place in spades within the government. Human psychology is the same amongst financiers, consumers and government officials.
In short, I think you should focus your fine analytical skills on this 6th storm. In this country, today’s investors have never faced the kind of coming financial crisis amongst the various levels of government that appears to be on the way. We didn’t even face this kind of pending crisis during the Great Depression except for some municipal failures.
What are the best ETF stocks for Canadian’s to buy on the Canadian market, if possible, for the big downturn in the market? Thanks for your help.
Hello Matin,
Thank you very much for your advise and counsel in Safe Money, and the other valuable opportunities to which I subscribe. They are very much appreciated.
I recently moved much of my savings to banks on the “best reated list”, but have additional accounts at US Bank, which I moved there when it was rated “B”…but now I see that it is rated “U” (undertemined) since the so-called stress tests. What does this change really mean, and would it be wise/prudent to move that money elsewhere?Thank you,
Les
Mr Weiss,
Could you just do this investing for me….I dont really understand all of this but its a sincere question…and if not can you recommend someone for me?
Thanks,
Kay
im buying 2011 puts on capital one and american express,puts on the long bond market,(TLT) and december 2011 SPY puts.Also long several gold and silver companies and 3 energy companies and energy etf’s.Also long two chinese “green” companies.Total $250,000.Then I have 200000 in physical gold and silver and 100,000 cash.I think we will get inflation in a year or two and then I plan to convert 50% of everything to real estate.I believe real estate will crash when inflation hits due to rising interest rates.The weiss people are the best in the business in my opinion.
Mr Weiss,
If I were to buy physical Gold as a buffer during this period, what will stop the government from just ’stealing’ it off me like they did during the last depression?
Regards
Peter
PS Sincere thanks for all your ongoing informative work.
Is the money in a treasury only money market fund like cash? When we hit the bottom will I be able to access these funds to access bargain opportunities?
Please tell me what I should do! I know that Obama has trashed our economy!!!
The one thing that would give me confidence to aggressively pursue contrarian investments would be some kind of technical signal. The fundamentals tell me that most sectors are bad but the stock prices keep going up. I don’t mind taking small positions in inverse ETF’s, but to aggressively pursue these investments I need a better indicator of when the market will turn.
I have the same question as Kay. I don’t know how to do ETF’s
Iolanda
Dear Dr. Stein,
I hope you have no vesteed interest in paining the bleak picture you do. In vested interest I mean, interest other than just preventing people from getting hurt by believing what the wall street feeds them. If your motivation is the pursuit of truth, then I am with you. Everything you said in your most recent article makes sense and it’s disturbing that media does not ask the questions you do. The state of misingformation via biased reporting in today’s media is disconcerning.
I would like to thank you for sharing your well read, well informed insight with people in a pro bono manner. Please feel good about the work you’re doing helping people. Hopefully some will listen and avoid demise.
Most Respectfully,
Jack Milewski
Mr. Weiss
I am very new to investing. I have been reading Money and Markets for nearly one year now, I understand that there will be a substantle down turn in the economy soon. Would you please recommend a couple of stocks on the TSX that would be a good investment at this time?
Thankyou,
Irma
I am over 59 1/2 and still have about 40k in a 401k on the sidelines in an interest only account at Fidelity. Is it safe or should withdraw it, pay the taxes and buy short term t-bills?
Thanks,
Terry
Hi Martin
I appreciate your sincere helpful manner and your deep backgroundin the financial field.
I am new at reading your column but need to learn and am interested in learning about ETF etc. Would appreciate some directions and guidence to get more educated.
Thank Harvey
Mr Weiss,
I live in the country in Australia and was not able to obtain your book. However I am quite happy to folow your advice on this site.
Our question is:
What are ETFs and are we able to purchase these here in Australia? Do I have to go through a financier or a bank, or do we purchase these through you?
Also the situation you describe in America, does this also affect Australia to the same degree? We are told Australia is able to “weather” the coming depression.
We are eagerly awaiting your reply as we all think here in the country (Gundaguy) you really do talk the talk”!
Many regards
Petra
Dear Martin,
Like you, I have always believed in many far-fetched things from the viewpoint of the majority. I awoke this morning with the question, “Who died in The World Trade Center attack that the god of this age really wanted dead?” There must have been someone with ideas like yours or mine or some other independent thinker. You recently published a quote from 1 Thessalonians 5:3″….Peace and safety, then cometh sudden destruction upon them…..” First and second Thessalonians devote themselves to the Parousia of Christ, which is a 2-part occurence. The 1st of which Christians refer to as “the Rapture.” The 2nd part begins in 2Thess. 1:7. Prior to this rapture the events of 2 Thess. 2:3 unfold, which could very well be the times we live in today. No one really knows, these times are certainly similar.
I have been forwarding your articles to all of my friends for the past 2 years, yet only a handful or less have made any positive response and only one ardently agrees. Most of what you and I say will fall on deaf ears, because the world has been taught by its gods to discount any and all radical theories as those of conspiracy theorists. You believe what you believe will come to pass and so do I. I am not sure of your nationality, but my ancestry is Ashkenazi, who regardless of anything else they believe, they believed in One God, not 1 in 3 or 3 in 1 like the oil. The reason I bring this up, is because the vast majority of the Christian religion believe in 1 God in 3 entities which is completely illogical and leads to a condition called “the reprobate mind.” A mind that is devoid of judgment or the ability to discern truth from error. This is why many people think you are just another “quack” and I am another “antichrist” in which case either opinion could not be further from the truth.
If I were this person asking “where to invest now?” I would tell them to buy all the silver & gold ingots they can afford to buy as well as non-perishable food products in sealed containers.
God bless you for what you are trying to do,
What are ETF’s? I like many of your readers and concerned and need solid ethical advice. Thanks you for opening a new avenue in my mind.
Mr. Weiss, thank you for your insightful newsletters. I am one of the recently laid off and I have a 401k that I will be rolling into an IRA. I was looking on thestreet.com for broker ratings and did not find anything. I thought something used to be there. Is there a good place to check out the health of in particular the online brokers? Also, one of the investments I plan to make is inverse ETFs. They sound like a great tool for our times, but I was hoping to go a bit deeper in my understanding of how they work and how safe they are. A previous message contains some of my question:
“Bob 05.08.09 at 12:37 PM
Martin -
Okay. I have had a couple of inverse long bond etfs since early March. One performed (either way) proportionally more than the other, so I sold the “poorer” performer and kept the other — so far so good. Now for my QUESTION: These funds are largely based on side bets (derivatives) on the long bond interest rate (or price). So who is betting oppositely, and why? It seems that as the interest rate trend continues upward (hopefully for this investment), the trend will become more obvious and the bettors on the other side will go away, leaving these funds without a means to play the trend, even before the trend expires. Or am I missing something here?”
My addition/clarification to this question is where does the money come from? When we show gains with an inverse ETF, who is losing? Also, if the losses are great enough, what guarantee is there that the losers will be able to pay and not default on their ‘bets’?
This market rally has been cleverly engineered by government. I am amazed at the control they have taken over banks, corporations and especially the press. This administration took notice of the market and its influence on public sentiment. The morning of Rick Santelli’s rant on CNBC was a turning point. Following his powerful message in which he directly called out the Obama administration, CNBC was lambasted by the administration. CNBC (owned by GE) was bullied by the administration and subsequently offered a sacrificial lamb in Jim Cramer in a staged debate where Cramer became nothing more than a whipping dog. For his submission, he was promised support by the administration…..those in control that could make Mr. Cramer look like a financial genious. Shortly after striking this manipulative deal, Mr. Cramer declared this rally a bull market and PROCLAIMED THE RECESSION OFFICIALLY OVER.
It is difficult to know when to invest in inverse ETFs with the government so squarely involved in manipulating the media, corporations, and markets. They have become bullies to those that stand in their way (see Chrysler bankruptcy negotiations) and have become very disruptive overall. I do see this recession becoming more severe but things are quite risky right now. I will use caution moving forward.
Itseems to methat all the political talk about credit card reform is just rhetoric.
The main problem is the enormous rates of interest that
credit cars companies are legally allowed to chargecustomers. Some of them are
getting 25% or more. I have not heard anyone saying anything about this.
Whatever happened to usury laws?
I am currently reading and enjoying your recent book. On the pages that list inverse ETFs, I did not see a sector inverse ETF for the transportation sector. Is there one, but just not listed there?
I have allowed “others” to manage my money without my involvement for too long.
I don’t want to become knowledgeable enough to separate the good recommendations from the “BS”
Hi Martin,
I am a disabled NYPD Detective-Sergeant, wounded at the World Trade Center on September 11th. Thank you for your sound advice over the years that has helped our family hold on to our limited resources during this difficult period.
I understand that this venue is not apporopriate for personal financial advice. I will therefore frame my question in gerneral terms. Our government is printing money – in what I can only describe as unprecedened amounts. This will eventually lead to inflation, although the present state of affairs is deflatonary.
Jennefer, my wife of 30 years, and I have no debt. We own our home; no mortgage (Amen!) The place is modest but in good condition. But, as a homeowner yourself, you know that things break, and houses need maintainence and renovation as the years pass. Generally, if we expect higher interest rates and inflation in the future, would it be prudent to borrow, now, on home equity at lower rates, in anticipation of future inflation, and attendant higher home improvement costs? This strategy is of particualr concern for savers (like us) who are essentially on fixed income. Your thoughts on this would be most welcome. Thanks, John.
I have a strong belief that oil will return to $100+. How can I best leverage the small amount of money I have to invest to capitalize on my investment?
As I was watching Fox News this AM, it appears that the economics do not favor a recovery thus giving credence to the potential of this bear market surge ending soon. Foreclosures are still on the rise and retail sales were worse than expected. If I were to invest in inverse EFTs, which ones do you suggest?
DEAR MARTIN—THANK YOU FOR YOUR ADVISE AND DIRECTION—I HAVE READ YOUR BOOK TWICE AND HAVE UNDERLINED MANY POINTS OF IMPORTANCE. THANK YOU FOR SAVING ME AND MANY OTHER LIKE MINDED FOLKS, BOB GILBERT
Which inverse ETF’s would you recommend? I am primarily in Vanguard and have several bond funds. Should I sell them? Thanks for your help.
Hello Martin
First let me start off by saying thank you for everything you do. You and your staff are a light in the wilderness for many of us.
I was wondering if you could shed some light on the safety of so called stable assets that are invested heavily in traditional Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GIC’s) and also Synthetic Guaranteed Investment Contracts that are issued by insurance companies often through company investment plans..
I have a father in-law who’s 401k is heavily invested in these types of investment contracts and I am a worried about his risk level in light of the insurance industry lining up at the federal bailout money trough.
The investments have been able to earn approx 3% per year for the last few years. However with the threat of interest rates increasing I suspect that many of the insurance companies that issue these contracts may be potentially falling on hard times and I am afraid what this could mean for many people holding these types of contracts.
If you can provide any assistance in this area I would greatly appreciate it, if not I understand.
Thanks again
John Jones
Dear Martin
At the risk of embarrassment, I desperately need advice on which broker to engage and how to subscribe in order to follow your recos in newsletter. Please help! Thank you.
Please advise if it is wise to invest in silver. Will its value go up.
Dear Dr. Weiss,
First thank you for your valuable insights to the economy and the markets and I’v been a dedicated reader and follower of your Safe Money Report and Money & Market newsletters. This question might have came up in the past where I have missed but I have recently ran across Short-Term T-Bill ETF (BIL) and would be interested to know whether this is a similar alternate to the suggested Short Term T-Bill direct and money market funds minus the 0.14% expense & trade commission? Please advise. Thank you.
I am very unhappy with the brokerage firm that I have and am wondering what my options are for changing my IRA as I have lost a considerable amount of it – right now I have sold all the bankstocks they had me invested in and this cash is sitting there in a money market fund. Thanking you for any help you care to give me
BACKGROUND.
I am one of the leading corporate brokers in Emerging Markets – and have specialised in them since 1980. I am based in London – and have been attributed in my time with the development of the Australian Capital markets – the development (or lack of) the equity markets in Hungary – and a leading expert in successful private equity invetment into and exiting from Russia and other Central European Markets.
My comment today is this
1. Stock markets anticipate economic trends – and a “Depression” seems to have been kept at bay.
2. The reverse yield gap – there are solid companies that will maintain or increase their dividends – and represent good value today.
3. The Copoock weighted moving average – the 5 day over the 19 day average has turned positive.
4. Talking to intelligent colleagues – they anticipate the UK economy to bottom out in the 2nd half 2010.
One former Fund manager – who won several awards – called the bottom of the market on March 10th 2009.
Please get back to me if you so wish – and just to say I enjoy you newsletters – Thanks
Hamish Rainey
Can I use IRA funds to invest in the inverse ETFs that you suggest? If so, how do I set this up?
Dear Martin
I was very impressed by your video with the ex-CNN interviewer and read all of your reports. I am really interested in your future strategies and wonder if someone who is resident in the UK can get involved and invest in ETF’s when the time is right, if so how would I go about achieving this – would I need a broker rather than try using online methods eg. ishares or something similar?
What banks are safe to make direct deposits from SSDI?
If the banks have a holiday close or for what ever reason, will the ATM’s be working so people can get their money out?
Hi Dr. Weiss
I ordered your book (2copies) about a month ago by way of Amazon.com.And as yet I am still waiting for my two copies.
Thank you.
Joe Raymond
Dear Martin
I have just purchased your book and am awaiting delivery. The one question I have is which currency you would recommend as an investment to weather the current financial crisis over the next twelve months.
Thanking you for your excellent publications.
David
Dr. Weiss,
We are also new to ETF’s and T-Bills for investing. Can you recommend some for us?
Thanks for your sound and wise financial advise, you are truly a God-sent to this generation.
Kate
Martin, I have been following your comments for some time and believe that your understanding of the market place is invaluable.
I really would like to invest in your million dollar contrarian portfolio, but am concerned as a UK citizen that exchange rates between the £ and the $ might significantly reduce my chances of growing my wealth. I would appreciate any comments you have.
David
I know very little about the stock market.Howver, when I read your material I have become very interest in how you approach the investment concepts through research. I am interested in purchasing one of your programs. How do I get started? Is there someone who can guide me step by step on how to open an account and to invest? Don
Can you please tell me more about contrarian portfolio? Can you please advise which is an excellent ETC to invest into? I have no knowledge of ETFs and how to invest in them.
Thank you very much
Dear Dr. Weiss,
I have read your books and fine them very informative. You have hit the nail on the head. I expect that things will only get worst as time moves on. I am interested in the inverse etf’s you talk about. Thanks for all the things you do to help us presurve capitol. John
dear Martin,
you are right and not right in your assessments. We are here to make up lost monies.
Listening to your comments I lost on the 35% uptrend since March. The only con solation that my energy stocks went up at least. I invested inverse ETC S&P 500
Russell 2000 sucessfully only to receive a beating the second time around when the market started to go sideways. I wonder if all inverse ETFs show an indirect weakness in the long run?? Certain inverse ETFs in my opinion defin itely cannot be kept for the long run. That brings me to the inverse investment TBT, which has gone up 20% Reading recently an article on the backup financial instruments to arrive at this percentage are so complicated that I must wonder if not another trap is awaiting investors like me. Should inflation instead of deflation arrive certainly this kind of investment has a long way to go.Please comment
Regds Lieselotte Hausmann
I still don’t understand what an Inverse ETF is. Help!
I don’t understand investing AT ALL!! I do know that I sold all my stocks and have about $100,000.00 in Mutual Funds. Is my money safe there?? I just don’t know what to do. Should I pull most of it out and put it under my mattress??
Where can I go to learn some of this investment lingo?
I feel I’ve learned lots from your book and now I am wondering just how to use what I learned. We have IRA’s with mutual funds because we are not in the field of economics.
Where do we go for help from someone we can trust? I feel the time is short.
Hi Mr Weiss!
Like Peter said earlier, in his 05.11.09 at 8:40 PM post, quoted: “If I were to buy physical Gold as a buffer during this period, what will stop the government from just ’stealing’ it off me like they did during the last depression?”
I’m looking to invest in precious metals, and still asking myself that same question… Can you respond to us please? What can we do to prevent this? Keep it in a safe at home?
Thanks alot!
I WILL FEEL CONFIDENT INVESTING WHEN THE GOVERNMENT CAN’T MANIPULATE THE MARKETS, LIKE THEY ARE DOING NOW. BAD NEWS AFTER BAD NEWS AND THE MARKETS GOES UP, COME ON.
Martin,
Did you see the article from “Seeking Alpha” this morning about UNG’s performance this year versus FNG. It seems that UNG is not tracking the price of N.G very well. Have I missed something here…. explain if you will, please.
Bruce
Martin ,
Sorry, I gave the wrong symbol in an earlier message…. should have been “FCG”
B.
at lease how much can i invest? and also can i invest here in Nigeria?Thanks
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