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Yesterday’s discussion was one of our most fascinating and helpful ever! Our readers delivered tons of great ideas, insights, strategies and tactics for making money in these challenging times.
But before I tell you about some of my favorite posts and ask you to help me with today’s question, I want to express my appreciation for the countless “Thank You” notes you’re sending.
They’re truly humbling: Knowing we’re helping you is the greatest reward we could possibly hope for.
Yesterday, I asked you to answer the question, “What kind of investor are YOU?”
Are you content to own longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend in the market, knowing that you’ll ultimately have the opportunity to grab substantial profits?
Or are you itching to trade this market more aggressively, going for profits when stocks move between the waves of the major trend?
And once again, our readers rose to the occasion — sharing a broad diversity of investing styles in their answers …
Mike V. is strictly a longer-term investor: “I will follow your recos, being a member of your Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio,” says Mike. “Don’t get too crazy about short-term pops. Let’s make money slowly and steadily.”
Grant agrees: “I’m trying NOT to be driven by stock prices where the fear/greed motivation can over-ride analysis and wisdom,” he says. “I’m trying to be aware of what the longer term trends are (and why) so I can pick the right investments for the current climate.”
John F. explains why he’s content with longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend: “I don’t feel like I have the time or technical knowledge to play with short-term market decisions every day.”
Jack T. generally agrees with Mike, Grant and John, but prefers a less doctrinaire approach. “I’d like to think I’m an investor who’s willing to make some money on the upticks while being positioned primarily for the Bear.”
Manuel V. agrees: “I would like to be able to trade a portion of my funds on the rallies rather than just waiting for the economy to sink further.” He’s looking for help investing in stocks that are most likely to rise in bear market rallies — and that could even spin off profits when the rest of the market plunges.
Keith seconds Manuel’s opinion and says he uses the information we provide on the bearish long-term trend to invest with inverse ETFs. But Keith also asks for more help on how to capitalize on short-term rallies.
George is already in both camps — actively investing in the long-term trend and playing the bear market bounces along the way: “I am 85% long term and 15% short term. I have been trading this market ever since 3/10/09! Both ways! Using small caps long and contra ETFs to go short!”
John M. simply says, “I am interested in taking advantage of both sides of the market.”
In fact, the vast majority of our readers — I’d guess as many as 70% or more — want to profit from the long-term bearish trend AND ALSO rack up shorter term profits with investments that are rising right now.
But Greg P., points out the obvious challenge in going for short-term profits in this environment. Investing today, he writes, "seems like a crap-shoot as opposed to an exercise in sensibility. Your observations and recommendations are to my mind factually accurate and true. Yet the market seems to shrug off all facts and act in a manner independent of reality.”
YES! That’s it! I totally agree with you!
Over the longer haul — three to six months or longer — the old axiom is true: The trend is, indeed, your friend.
And when the long-term trend is decidedly bearish like today, contrarian investments like inverse ETFs are a brilliant choice for harnessing substantial profit potential.
But investing the money you set aside to seize shorter-term opportunities is a challenge in times like these: Some days, it seems like the worse the news is, the more the market rises. And on other days, when the news is less dismal, stocks inexplicably plunge!
So for everyone who’s looking to capitalize on short-term rallies in this longer-term bear market, the most crucial answer you can get now is simply this:
What tools do YOU use to spot short-term rallies in time to profit from them?
Of more than 10,000 stocks traded on Wall Street, how do you find the handful that are destined to rise even when the Dow and S&P plunge?
And how do you know when it’s time to take your profits before the next wave of selling erases them?
Just scroll down and use the form at the end of this blog post or click here to tell me what you think!
Giving me your answers will go a long way towards helping us help you with recommendations and tools designed to fit your investing style hand-in glove.
And as always, my team and I will use this blog to address your concerns, answer your questions and help any way we can.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 232 comments… read them below or add one }
My favorite all-time quote about the stock market is this: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
There are as many strategies as there are people. I’d like to find one that can steadily make me 10%/year.
I use my past experiences and friends to help me to make decisions on what and when to invest. My parents and some of my friends are farmers and ranchers. They are very good sources for playing the grain commodity markets. I am a retired exploration manager and geologist in oil, gas, and mining which helps me a great deal in investments in those areas. My contacts in these areas are very good and are up to date. I combine all this information with investment news letters and people like yourself before I make final decisions for making investments.
Ken
Due to an accident of fate, in November of 07 I was over 90% out of the market and did not re enter until Feb. of 09. A family crisis, in a manner of speaking saved me at least a 1/3 of a million, as nearly as I can guestimate. Basically I’m a buy and hold type. Most of my holdings have the steady eddies, energy, metals and a few companies that I have personal knowlwdge of. I do follow your advice to a degree and am greatful for youy input but do act quite independently becouse my past acquaintances in business. At 90 yrs of age I am not very adventuresome anymore.
Personally I prefer long term as it is hard to take short term profit in this market. Any news will send the market up or down. Can’t see the stability. I agree with you on the long term bear market. But I have a question. I have read some Chinese blog and it seems to me the Chinese government still think the treasury is their most secure investment at the moment, so they will keep on buying. Will that keep the rate and prolong the situation?
I would like to be a long term investor but I am only a few years from retirement and my 401k wiped out half my investment and completely reversed my anticipated target value. So, I hope to see some recovery in my portfolio in the near term. I also hope to continue investing after retirement but I am unsure at this point if I will have anything left to invest.
seems not to long ago you were a proponent of sitting in cash in this deflationary enviorment. now i’m seeing you think the dollar is going to get crushed. which one is it ? also if i’m not mistaken claus was thinking of buying treasuries based on the prmise that when the reality of the bear market takes hold investors will charge into the safety of the treasury bond. now it appears you are beyond bearish on this investment . which is it ?
As I live in Uk I cannot partake in your $m p/folio but I follow your astuteness.My problem is that our pension is in £’s and we wonder should we leave it there or switch currencies. We are 65 with a sum in 7 figures and wonder will it see us out( to be morbid!) With the best wishes in the world for your unselfishness-I am sure your father is looking in proudly!Jac
I am a scared investor. I dodged a bullet by pulling out of the market in Jan.08. I ate it in 2000 and at 62 cannot risk losses of principal. I read what you say, but am frozen with fear because i believe we haven’t seen the worst of this economy and at the same time I know if I sit on cash, inflation will eat away at it every day. I like Larry Edelson, but I cannot watch the market every day and watch the market as if I were at the race track. Yes, the market is going up in the short term, but you guys warn that it is basically a dead cat bounce.
This market rally of nearly 30% is against all empirical data. I have been waiting for a correction and there has been none. I feel like I have missed the bottom and have lost a lot of money on the short positions I have on the DIA and other indexes or ETFs. Why has there been no correction? If you think there will be a correction when will it happen?
Some time ago you suggested being 90% in a liquid t-bill fund. Does that still hold? When should we start worrying about the tanking of the dollar, the threat to reserve currency status — or the credit rating of the U.S.?
I am not yet convinced that these stocks will diverge from the broad market in the next downdraft…
However, my basis is from Nov and Dec ‘08: Are gold stocks (AEM, AUY, GG, GDX) the only buy and hold stocks for the forseeable future (it is tempting to take some profits now) ?
Your portfolio management service and Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio are great services. Unfortunately, my investable funds are much less, so they are not practical for me.
I wanted to pay along a technical communication comment. Weiss seems to have used several webinar hosting systems in the past months. What you were using yesterday (and for the past two webinars or so) crops off half the video panel on the right, while having a wide Weiss advertising and troubleshooting panel on the left. I’d suggest having the appropriate technical people look into it. Probably the left and right feeds come from different sources, and the webcast technician may not be aware of how they are combined.
Keep up the good advice, education, and investment services!
I do not make investments with out using research from my own sources.
While I agree with you on long-term trends, I believe that some of the recommendations do not make sense, unless further explained.
Over the medium term, inverse ETF’s do not necessarily help much. There are many examples of problems with these ETF’s. When I called some ETF operators they said that they are intended only for short-term use and cannot be relied on for the longer term.
YOU AND YOUR STAFF HAVE SOME VERY INTERESTING INFORMATION ON INVESTING, AND PERSONAL EXPERIENCES.
THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN FOLLOWING YOU AND YOUR STAFFS RECOS. MY WIFE AND I HAVE LOST AT LEAST 15% OF OUR COMBINED PORTFOLIO SINCE DECEMBER 31 2007. WE ARE BOTH OVER 70 YEARS OF AGE AND WOULD LIKE AT LEAST TO BREAK EVEN AT TIMES LIKE THESE.
FIDELITY INVESTMENT CO. KEEPS VERY GOOD RECORDS ON CHARGES AND EXPENSES. HOWEVER ALL THE COSTS HAVE BEEN USED TO CALCULATE OUR 15% PERCENT DECLINE, EXCEPT YOUR COST FOR YOUR NEWS LETTER INFORMATION. SO IF YOU CHECK MY RECORD ON THOSE CHARGES YOU WOULD HAVE A LARGER PERCENTAGE OF DECLINE.
WE WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE BETTER RESULTS FROM YOU, BECAUSE OF OUR AGE. WE ARE ON THIN ICE AND WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE OUR PRESENT LIFE STANDARD, AND POSSIBLY VISIT A FEW PLACES OF INTREST. WE HAVE 20 GRAND CHILDREN AND WOULD LIKE TO PUT A FEW MORE BUCKS IN THEIR ENVELOPES.
THANK YOU,
GOD BLESS
MICHAEL F. AND JOANNE CARDAMAN
MBS SINCE 2005
Enjoy your newsletter… I am a young widow in my 70’s and I just have my money in different banks and credit unions.
I keep under $100,000. in each account. I need to keep my money safe, and I made the money investing wisely in Real Estate, buying and selling undeveloped parcels of land, aside from my managing my business.
Now, I need to know how safe the banks & credit unions are?? Will we have another bank holiday where they close the banks? Also, are annuites safe? I realize that I am not capitalizing much with interest rates so low, but will my principal be safe in the future?
What else could I do, as do not want to gamble with my money as am a very independent lady and want to preserve what I have. Thank you,
Anne
Martin – I haven’t seen anything about investing specifically in those companies that will benefit big from all that stimulus and bailout money — like, for example, GE, some banks, and solar and wind enenry, anything “green” to coin the phrase. While I don’t like making deals with the devil, so to speak, aren’t we short-sighted not to look at this side of the markets right now?
Personally, I like to do both. Primarily I invest in the long-term trend in currencies, bonds, and dividend bearing stocks. However, due to government actions it is difficult to tell what the long-term impacts to real assates will be. Because of this I have about 50% of my holdings in cash which I short term trade in various ETF’s and inverse ETF’s to profit from short term swings and market volatility. My goal is to have a net zero loss over the current deflationary cycle.
What I think would be a good investment within the U.S.A. would be real estate land for a combination business for the public use as well as growing food on the land. Examples: Bed and Breakfast type hotel, Health Retreat, along with growing orchards of fruit and nut trees, mushrooms, berries, vegetables. The area could include a beautiful flower gardens with walking trails like at Duke University.
I’m a long time reader, Martin and appreciate what you’re doing with this blog. Keep up the great work. I’m also a member of the “Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio” and have 80% of my funds invested accordingly. The remaining 20% is available to trade based on the methods I’ve learned from “Investors Business Daily”. Their “CANSLIM” system is based on extensive research. Essentially, it provides easy-to-use financial yardsticks that increase the likelihood of buying a winner on the way up. Using their principles I bought Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) a few weeks ago at $72 and it’s now trading at $89 in rising volume.
For money currently parked in cash, do you recommend VFISX Vanguard’s short term treasury fund as a good place to park and get in and out of?
Ken
Economics seems to be a living, breathing entity with a life and mind of it’s own. I don’t believe there is one person alone who truly understands the total complexity of the market or who can predict it day after day because it so driven by emotion. Even a scholar like Mr. Vogt can miss the mark, however Mr. Vogt is willing to admit a mistake and correct his course. This flexibility is why I have subscribed to the Contrarian Portfolio. Not only do I hope to increase the value of my portfolio during a bear market but to learn something as well.
MJE
I had the opportunity to see you and hear you on the Glen Beck Fox network and his radio show on WFLA. Your comment on the Ford Motor Co vs the government bailout with GM and the Ford debt ratio requires more details. The next car I buy will be a Ford. As a member of the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio I am quite satisfied with the commodity investments that offset the Inverse ETF losses. Claus Vogt has us positioned perfectly for the next downturn in the market, that WILL come, sooner or later. His last move into FDO and AAN has allready provided a bounce in our portfolio.
Thank you and God bless,
George
How safe are the single IRA accounts with 500,000 dollars? Most of the time money is used to purchase stocks and bonds but other times the money is in a cash account that earns interest.
I have agreed with Martin’s analysis of the market and economy for some time and have been a reader of his newsletter for nearly a decade. My theory on the market is one of a short-term trading nature. I use technical analysis such as TRIX, Slow Stochastic, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc. in conjunction with my overall longer term projected bias. The key is that I am not necessarily seeking stocks that rise. I’m seeking stocks that move and utilized the technical analysis to make short-term trades. A long-term trade to me means something longer than a couple of hours. Buy and hold means overnight. My preference is to be in cash again at the end of any given day. We try to employ the “kaizen” principle. Small gains over time end up with large profits. And being in cash at the end of the day you have no downside risk in today’s geopolitical climate after the market closes. As a CPA, tax season limits the time I have to do trading. That said, I am currently up 9.4% year to date (well over a projected 20% annual return) and sitting in cash at the end of the day. The keys to this strategy are 1) take your winners when you have them, don’t be greedy waiting for too much. Remember the kaizen principle of small gains adding up, and 2) Set your stop losses. You will inevitably be wrong a few times so if you have a set amount you will limit your losses to via a stop loss you’ll live to play another day. Have averaged close to 80% winning on trades. The problem comes when you don’t want to admit you were wrong and don’t execute your stop and then have a runaway loser. Set the stops!
In short, take your winners, set your stops, cash out at endof the day and live to play another day. If you can’t spend the first hour or last hour of each trading day to do this strategy, then you should seek another gameplan. You can honestly do this in the first or last hour of the trading day and get your job done the rest of the day.
Martin:
I wish I had the intelligence and experience to answer your questions, but I don’t. As I said yesterday I have the utmost confidence in following your expert advice and await your recommendations. I’m pushing 76 and don’t hurry at anything anymore….a gradual increase over time is fine with me…..security is golden. Anyone who doesn’t recognize this after what we have seen recently is a fool.
Thank you for the volumes of info you provide for us to increase our knowledge and present it in such a logical way.
Hi Martin,
I had a very strong feeling that the market would surge on the GM bankruptcy announcement. It seems the market is responding favourably to any news (even bad news) that is at least rooted in honesty and certainty. That is to say we all new GM was going broke, we accepted it, we’ll deal with it and move foward. That creates confidence. Any news that things are not working or that another major bailout is required, the market would probably plunge. So I am watching the state of California. If they end up getting bailout, it could signal another major decline. Thanks for your efforts, Martin. I read your articles every day.
Nobody can prdedit the short term trend(day to day) of the market. If it were possible, do you think anybody with that knowledge would share it? No, he would use it to make a fortune. Month to month trends seem to continue for a few months, and the best you can hope for is to jump on them when recognized and catch part of the wave, hoping to get out in time for a profit. Individual stocks have individual behavior, and learning a stock’s behavior is the best way to profit from it. Since individual stocks can be learned, they are the best bet for a profit. But, be prepared for a surprise now and then, no matter how well you think you know a stock.
Having been an avid reader of all the Weiss postings, I personally do not have the skills or knowledge to predict short term gains. I rely on your financial gurus to teach me what they know about international trends and then I research which recs I can invest in since I am retired and have seen my IRA shrink dramatically in the past two years or so.
I learn about trading and investing strategies by searching the web and reading books. I get educated and stay informed about the current market by reading daily posts from Weiss Research, Agora Financial, Casey Research, etc. (I used to rely on the S&P Outlook, Barron’s, sources on Charles Schwab’s website, etc.–traditional sources–but over the years I found that their view of the markets, and their lack of attention to reality–which, imo, requires a long-term and broad perspective, including globalness–is too short-term and myopic.)
I have 50% of my money in long-term investments (including your Million $ Contrarian Portfolio and some of Agora Financial’s investment advisory services).
The other 50% is money I use more actively, with the goal of making money no matter what the market’s doing. I use an investment advisory service to invest in currency options: it’s fun and I’m making money. In the interest of diversifying, I would like to use some other investment advisory services–particularly for other kinds of options–but I don’t have enough knowledge about options investing to trust my judgment in choosing a service. I need a service that spells everything out for me at first, and then, once I get going, keeps the buy and sell cues coming and provides support when I need it. I can find “hold my hand” services, but the ones I’ve found so far offer too few recommendations–it’s like dabbling rather than trading/investing. And I can find “over my head” services, but I’m not experienced enough to judge how good they are, and, also, I’m afraid of getting in over my head. Like Goldilocks, I need an options’ service that’s right in the middle… maybe even a service that uses different kinds of options in different markets–a real educational opportunity, and potentially very lucrative because the most appropriate methods (types of options) could be chosen to suit the various markets. (I’m particularly interested in natural resource, energy, and commodity markets right now.)
I think we are on the cusp of massive pattern changes in the ways that humans do things and live their lives. We can see a beginning of this in how people are voting with their dollars and their time. Nurseries and garden centers are busy. My neighbor retired from working for an oil company. In retirement, he is thrilled to live in a place where he can walk to everything. I live in a city where the only gated community I know of in the city proper is a low-income village on a composting site where there is a waiting list to get in, and the homes have been designed by inventive young architects and builders. We are also noted by NPR for calling in to their call-in shows more than people from other locations. We have an infamously high unemployment rate, and yet our property values remain fairly steady because people are moving here from other places. This has long been a rainy, green place of abundance. The First Peoples here were good stewards and quite adept at managing human issues as well. If someone got a surplus of stuff, they would make him have a party and give some away. This was called potlatch, somewhat similar to the potlucks that are now a staple of the myriads of special-interest groups, SIG’s, that characterize the place where I live. Maybe I will leave this posting where it is, as something of a riddle, with a hint that the New York Times recently characterized this place as an ideal destination for a frugal tourist. As for investing, I am investing in solar and geothermal renewable energies because the energy can be placed close to where it will be used, with little pollution or maintenance once installed. I believe these characteristics will be increasingly valued. I do not want any of my family or friends to suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD’s) or other illnesses from pollution. Thanks for the forum. The Village Building Convergence is coming up here where I live, and I will get to wallow in this stuff I like to think about.
Tools:
Investors Intelligence web site for P&F charting and sector watch
Big charts for timining entery and exit of a position( fast and slow moving stochastic)
Stock ncharts. com for comparing relative strength of securities (perf chart)
888options.com for option quotes and calculations
Since mostly I concentrate on sectors ,etfs associated with the sector and the holdings within the etfs I will watch for sector rotation when a sector goes down past 70% bullish I look at the worst perform etf and the worst performing holding within that etf on the other hand if a sector goes up to 30% i will look at the best perfoming
I for exit I will track the under lying security as sectors become over sold or over bought I tighten up my stops
Following up on my point above about not necessarily finding stocks to go up meant that I will go long or short depending on the technical indicators. Therefore, when things go down can make money just as well as when things go up. It’s really about the short-term movement.
Dr Weiss,
I think you would agree that we are currently in an upswing bear market. Some think the market will rally back to 9500 before crashing again. Should we buy some inverse ETF’s now and hold them. If so what percentage of our portfolio? what stop loss? Or, should we wait for more panic to set in? How long typically should an investor hold inverse ETF’s? Thanks again for all your help!
This is my question; We are in a different situation compared to dec 08 and march 09, the monetarists are at its best; The FED and the bond market are colliding, long term interest rates are rising and eventually short term will follow and the dollar is clearly weaking at an increasing rate. All this on top of declining housing prices and rising unemployment, so in the next pullback besides inverse ETF’s and Long Gold, where will the BIG FISH will hide?
Hello Martin and Claus,
Your message came at a good time as I have been getting discouraged, trying to be patient, waiting for the big drop that will justify the positions I’ve taken, etc., like most everyone else. I’ve followed your recos, though I saw a big drop today in FDO and wished I’d waited. Will now wait longer for AAN to drop some, before investing.
I appreciate knowing the strategies YOU guys use to determine strengths in individual securities. I am just learning about all this. For example, noticing when a stock trend is moving above the 200 day moving average is useful and understandable. On the other hand, I have no clue what statements like this mean: “Momentum indicators are vastly oversold.” So the more you can explain, the better it is for me. Thanks for all your help.
Donna Davis
Martin – My wife and I are retired. Normally, when times are good, we’re in for the long term, although I do manage the balance of our portfolios. I use tools for such management that I have developed myself in MS Excel. Now, however, we’ve finally managed to get totally out of the market and into cash. We lost 9% on the way down. We use YOU to spot short-term rallies and assets moving contrary to the rest of the Market. We’re now waiting for just the right time to buy some 10-year Treasuries (Don’t want any longer, because we’re in our 70s.). We’re also looking for decent short-term CDs. What I would like from YOU and Weiss Research is advice for us old retired folks who don’t have enough to get into the Management Company, with its $500-K entry level. We’re still capable of managing our own portfolios and making informed decisions. Thanks, immensely, for what you do, down in beautiful Jupiter Beach, which I used to buzz, back in the days when there was an Air Base at West Palm. – John Painter
yes
we share in gern/gold/moo/slv/
keep up the great work/service
thank you
Martin,
I use ETF’s to go long or short the market to make trading profits on the markets short term trends (usually 2 weeks to 3 months duration). My favorite is Direxion’s TNA and TZA. At the present I am long the market taking advantage of the 3 month bear maket rally.
What this does is give me more capital to invest in the longer trend bear market when the bear returns. Which is will with a vengenace. As far as timing I use the usual technical indicators that the top traders use for entering and exiting trades.
I too am a million dollar portfolion subscriber and a long term subscriber to Safe Money (over 10 years). I also want to thank you for your sound investment advice over those years. You have helped me develop into a very successful investor that has a much deeper understanding of the markets and Wall Street. As the old saying goes you can give a man a fish and feed him for a day or you can teach him how to fish and feed him for a life time.
Thanks for teaching me how to fish. My God bless you and your loved ones.
Respectfullly yours,
Jim Newlin
Houston Texas
In spite of the fact that I consider myself as a long term investor (with a few kilos of solid gold), I would surely appreciate to know from your team:
1.- The tools to use for short-term rallies.
2.- The stocks destined to rise even when the Dow & S&P plunge.
3.- The time to take profits.
And I would ask for a fourth information:
4.- The risk percentage.
In advance,
Thank you!
Jean J. Pichon
Dear Marty,
Altho I take several stock letters Yours and your staff are the ones I mostly follow. When this whole downturn started I lost a fair amount of capital but then you started explaining about ETF’s. This changed everything. I still hold 30% gold stocks, 10% oil stocks and 10 % China stocks. The rest is cash. I use the ETF’s to balance everything else. Right now I am holding (less than usual) SDS, SEF, SH. I am slowly accumulating TBT UYM and trying to get some others on downturns ie. DBA. If the market goes down as you guys think should I then be buying more of the latter or will you be recommending specific stocks. I hope to recoup my early losses during the upturn.
I do trust your group above all others I hope this is right. I rely heavily on your recommendations. Thanks for everything, including a greater peace of mind . Sorel
With Treasury bonds the next victim of governmental (mis)management, I’m concerned with the future of my retirement fund that is invested in annuities, which I assume the fund manager will keep to maturity. When (hyper)inflation hits, will fixed annuities be savaged?
While we are a little underwater in the Contrarian Portfolio, I believe that is the trend so I am not concerned. On the long side, I have followed some of the recommendations from Larry, Sean and Tony in Uncommon Wisdom, and they have more than made up for the loss. Thanks for great service!
i buy larry, and mikes services and use recos fRom sean and sagami. I’m also probably going to buy their services too, they decide and i do it just like they said . i AM ALSO IN THE MILLION DOLLAR CONTRARIAN PORTFOLIO. I HAVE BEEN READING MONEY MORNING S AND A ETC BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT THEir SERVICES .I LIKE YOUR GROUP ESPECIALLY EDELSON.
short term you have to follow the sectors , in the hot sectors you look for leaders that has the best value or long ETFs , and not so hot sectors you you use inverse ETFS . Of course you must then follow it on a dily basis and not be afraid to take a small gain . When you see a capital gain protect yourself with a stop loss.
thanks for the Grow suggestion the other day,Ive made over 1200$ in less than a week,GFS
will you be trading currencies
I appreicate your wise counsel and read every communication you send via email. My husband is a subscriber to your newsletter. I am primarily long-term. Though there are many promotions for options etc I have not taken the time to test my understanding of them on paper. As for ETF’s, I am not adverse to owning them.
Thank you for including me in your emails.
Elaine Ward
To trade indices, I use Elliott Wave for trend/direction. For stocks (puts & calls on them) I use a combination of the “Wave structure” and trading the news.
I have no interest in the stock market, preferring instead to earn my money through my own merits which are given back to society by my sacrifice. However, I do agree with you that the current economic climate is detrimental to the free-market foundation upon which this country was built. This nation was built on rugged individualism and our gov’t seeks to remove this foundation. I sometimes try to tell people that there exist free market solutions to poverty and the research and development of alternative fuels, but a lot of them will not listen. I have tried to explain that just by ceasing to force charity out of people through welfare taxes, we could return the power of true charity to the many and varied non-profit organizations geared for that purpose and save the American people lots of money being spent on taxes in the process. And both sides continue to ignore that which holds the most promise as a free market solution to finding alternative fuels: extracting and refining oil from algae. But both sies are too hung up playing politics to do what’s right.
I got mostly out of the market a few years ago and bought gold. That has served me well, though I am now ready to start re investing. I like individual stocks because I can put a trailing stop loss on them. I am on the lookout for suggestions on what sector to go into now.
I was recently let go from a well paying corporate job. I have 3 rental properties now and I am looking to buy 2 more for 60 cents on the dollar. What’s to stop me from holding these properties long-term and trading up my primary residence every two years? I am merely a licence away from being my own GC. I’d like to think that in 5 to 10 years I would be self sufficent between a couple million in equity and a million in 401 and other retirement moneys.
I like some of the others have been going both long and short, but the manipulation by
Geithner and the Plunge Protection Team plays havoc with the logical tactical approaches
from the past. Obviously figuring out the trend would be of most importance as sitting at my computer all day is not feasible.
Additionally, I would like to know your two choices of currencies which we can hedge into to protect against the dollar as it heads to .62 or .52 and what would be the best
method to use.
Thanks,
Jim
MARTIN: THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO COMMENT. WE ARE TOO OLD TO TAKE ANY INVESTMENT RISKS EVEN IF THEY ARE PREFERRED RISKS. WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW IS HOW TO HANG ON TO WHAT WE HAVE IN LIFE SAVINGS. WHEN YOU ARE YOUNG YOU CAN TAKE CHANCES BECAUSE IF ONE FAILS ONE CAN START ALL OVER AGAIN. TIME IS NOT ON THE SIDE OF OLD FOLKS LIKE US TO THINK ABOUT INVESTMENTS, EITHER SHORT OR LONG TIME. WE HAVE ENOUGH OF A CHALLANGE TO HANG ON TO OUR RAINY DAY SAVINGS. SO MAYBE YOU CAN OFFER
ADVICE ON PROTECTING THE NEST EGG V PROFITABLE INVESTMENTS.
I don’t have answers to the questions you’ve asked, as I am just now educating myself with the stock market after reading your book, “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”. On Tuesday (6/2/09) I signed up to get your updates and free 60-day trial offer of “Safe Money”. I am very intrigued by the contrarian investor philosophy, and would like to do everything I can to follow your investment advice. Now that I have registered and received both a username & password, what exactly should I be receiving? How often? By what method? I just want to make sure I’m not missing out on anything. Thank you for your guidance in these troubled times.
Whereas I generally agree with your long term outlook, and believe you will be proved right again later this year, I disagree strongly with the following statement you made today:
“And when the long-term trend is decidedly bearish like today, contrarian investments like inverse ETFs are a brilliant choice for harnessing substantial profit potential.”
I have always LOST money on inverse ETFs, including those recommended in your Safe Money Report last fall. When the indexes bottomed in March, my positions were worth less than they were in November and I couldn’t figure out why. Now I get it.
In my opinion, these are vehicles that should ONLY be used for short term trading strategies. Because of how they are designed, mathematically they must decline in value over the long term.
I think subscribers MUST be urged to investigate and fully understand how inverse ETFs work before investing. Sorry, but this is the main reason I cancelled my subscription to Contrarian Portfolio.
I couldn’t say it better than Grant )“I’m trying to be aware of what the longer term trends are (and why) so I can pick the right investments for the current climate.”)
and John F (he’s content with longer-term investments tied to the dominant trend: “I don’t feel like I have the time or technical knowledge to play with short-term market decisions every day.”)
and 70% of your readers in that I “want to profit from the long-term bearish trend AND ALSO rack up shorter term profits with investments that are rising right now.”
I am new at this, so although it is exciting to have new options that I want to explore later for shorter term profits, I mostly like the information for safer places to invest now so I don’t have to wait 20 years for the market to return. It is also so refreshing to have all this explained in a straight forward way, using terms that can be understood by we newbies!
I like what you have been providing all along. I’m in Gold and short and ultra short ETF’S.
Maybe I’m missing some short term up market moves but I’m not willing to take the risk of being slammed
Hello Weiss Research Staff;
Another wonderful web update/offer- one I wish I was qualified for. Your “CM” value/service approach with the ‘BEAR’ & ‘BALANCE’ acts are what I need. If only you
needed me as much as I needs you :) I registered for this webcast for noon June 3rd,
but was unable to get in front of my computer before the end. I REALLY APPRECIATE
the e-mail update saying the webcast was available to watch, which I immediately clicked
on when getting in after an early evening meeting. Just the attention given through auto-response over the net tells me your Capital Management services must be second to none. Looking forward to what I hope is a long, and prifitable relationship with
Dr Weiss and the team assembled; ya’all rock. SafeMoney Subscriber
SEC’s IDEA, formerly known as EDGAR 10-K forms and others to identify owners BUYING some of their own stock.
As I continue to watch the developments/driftyiness of Wall Street I get the increasing impression that Obama’s charisma it worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,500 to 2,000 pts. on the Dow. That’s something hard to factor in even for the most astute economist.
Martin and Co.,
Re: Spotting the short term moves within the long term trend…
This is more of a question than suggestion. Do you or does anyone there have any experience with Vectorvest? They claim to have made over 250% gains over the last 3 months with their stock picking system. Any info would be greatly appreciated.
As much as I enjoy reading your perspective and value your educated incite, if I listened to all I read I would be out of the market and have my head in the sand waiting for the next wave of bad news. I am more of a long term investor, who also tries to research some short-term rising stars. I am not secure enough in my ability to trade ETF’s to get into that market, and also away from my computer too much to catch the immediacy necessary for some of those trades. I will continue to be a bit of an optimist, that although this economy is more dire than most periods in history, stability and normalcy will eventually return and we can hope our retirement funds will be there when we need them. In the meantime I will continue to trade(conservatively) and live ulcer free. Jean
The old tried and true rules no longer seem to apply. It’s a new year, new attitude, new administration and new global playing field. I need to change my thinking to adjust to the new investment strategies.
Dear martin: I am fast joining an investor group that I’m not crazy about. In my 80th year with some newly-acquired health issues, I find I’m looking at investments in a new light. “Forever-more is shorter than before.” No longer is “In for the long haul” an option. Unfortunately, that’s the mantra of the Boomer–therefore prevalent–generation and flavors much of your crew’s recos. But please, don’t forget there’s a bunch of us out here.
I retired in 1983 after 42 years with US Steel as machinist. I have the best stock broker available who is senior vice president of the oldest brokerage firm in Birmingham, AL. He has done well for me, advising me to buy good stock when it is out of favor and hold on to for the long term. I own 17 stocks at present, two of which I bought 100 shares and because of splits I now have 800 shares of each.
Frank(grandpa)Schober
I have been using the price of oil as a gauge to watch and buy stocks such as Potash and Mosaic. I also own some solar that also rides this trend. Yesterday June 3 was a slight down day as the price of oil fell and my stocks recovered today as the price increased.
It seems that if the company was/is solid and benefitted from higher oil prices and then got tanked by the price decline but is surviving (earnings) that as long as oil is up they will benefit.
I started with Potash @60-70- I believe the solar to be much more risky.
I don’t think anyone really knows what will happen in the next year or two. We have entered uncharted territory.
It appears to me that moves to ‘correct’ our problems are politically motivated and that they are designed to move us toward a socialist government if not a global government with a single monetary system.
The only conceivable way that our government can affort to start bailing out states and local governments is to monetize the debt. They have already thumbed their noses at bond investors with GM and may have plans to do the same to the entire investor class, including foreign governments.
The logical conclusion to all of this would be a huge disturbance in international trade, enormous energy costs and a de-stabilized global economy.
Perhaps when the whole house of cards comes tumbling down, Obama and his advisors plan to rebuild the United States in within the framework of the recent ABC special Earth 2100, with the United States setting the example for the rest of the world.
The book Web of Debt outlines a method of banking with the government being the sole source of money, i.e. generating credit, printing money, making low interest loans. The only problem appears when you need to exchange goods with other countries.
In this kind of environment it seems that the only thing one can do is to read the leaves and make relatively short term investments which play the trends. Unless of course you know the ultimate end game intentions…
Hi M
u recently mentioned several US banks(BAC, C, JP etc) under pressure.
how does UBS-Zurich compare with the above
which banks r considered safe in EU
my experience is that when the mkt falls , they all go down Gld, Ego Kgc incl.. and gold may go up to US1500/oz b4 6months. Au is dissapointing 2date.
i’m in2 srs, rew, dxd, sbb, eev, skf, sh, sef, psq,…………..4 now
i’ll go 4 treasuries wen the yield is 25%+ about 18 mths time.
then stocks wen the dow drops to 3500
mite c a bear rally from 4000-6200 on the way down to 1500
Chris
Whether long-term or short-term, I am interested in opportunities where the probability of a gain is better than the probability of a loss – i.e., managing the investment risk. A substantial portion of my portfolio is invested with a long-term view that follows trends. This is consistent with your recommendations in the Safe Money Report and Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio.
The remainder is available for targeted, short-term opportunities that have a brief window where a gain is more likely than a loss. In your newsletters and books, you have even cited examples where your Dad did well with some short-term profit-taking. The challenge is to avoid trying to milk every last cent out of a short-term opportunity – take the gain and move on.
Please do not feel obligated to be all things to all people. I appreciate the advice you provide to long-term investors. If you are not comfortable or do not have the tools to provide sound short-term investment advice, so be it.
I’m a retired firefighter and it’s been my experience that the greater the amount and volume of chief officer chatter over the radio during an emergency the worse things are going. Post fire critiques seemed to be attempts to spread blame to others, justify poor decisions and poor tactics, and finally culminate into claiming success after saving the foundation. I learned that rank never conquered a fire. I also learned quickly to whom I should listen and learn my needed fireground skills. These mentors stayed focused, and because of their experience, would lead in what needed to be done using every opportunity to teach a willing new-boy. I listen to you because you exhibit many of the same qualities as my fireground mentors. You seem to size up a fire so to speak pretty well and pretty early as the chief staff chatters away. I’m trying to use point and figure charting to operate within the confines of the overall conflagration. As our leaders claimed to have everything under controll, I’ve been setting in cash since July of 2008 and this year seems to so far be an encore of last year. There have been many P&F buy signals correctly identifying this current bounce but they’ve been hard to take considering the huge tank of explosive accelerant expanding under the distracted, self serving view of the command center. Sometimes an aggressive charge is the worst decision and hazards can be so great that they mandate that we back-off and protect the exposures with unmanned water lines. In the markets I’m still a new-boy which warrants that I operate conservatively as I learn. But I am trainable.
My present activity is very simple and narrow. I was active in the Gold market for about 13 years, mostly buying it at a bank, which I’m presently doing.
I will eventually be involved online, but I have a deep suspicion concerning which Co. to use, especially with what we have seen with corporations and their creative accounting.
Though I would probably be playing a narrow spectrum of commodities as I get more knowledge.
Truly enjoyed your book, read it twice, and bought one for my in laws.
martin,
i don’t believe the markets are reliable any more. when is the last time you have seen a company like gm file bankruptcy, and the markets go up? are the markets being mulnipulated by washington? I believe they are. it would help all investors to know the up and down times of the market in relationship to the happening of the day or week.
thanks
buddy hawkins
I never try to pick winning individual stocks in a down market. However, in the recent bear market rally, I have made money investing in ETFs such as SSO and FAS.
I base those investments on technical analysis investment services that I subscribe to. These help to spot strong intermediate trends. I feel that the long term direction of the market is down. But I don’t want to lose money or break even when there is a 30%+ rally.
I get out of the market based on this technical analysis.
I find the Bullish Convergence/Divergence (when price falls and momentum rises) the most reliable tool to spot short-term rallies. My favourite timing is after the corrective wave C finds its 5th sub-wave and is in over-sold area at the significant Fibonacci level. I also study the history of each market I trade to anticipate the end of each correction and the time scale applied.
It would be strange if any investor invests without any software. I use MetaStock and I can easily scan over 10,000 stocks in less than a minute. The criteria will be the definition of the corrective waves and the trend reversal signal with momentum oscillator at oversold area crossing its moving average upward.
I take profit at the level that the market used to behave in its history in certain wave count plus the consideration of the Fibonacci percentage target.
You didn’t ask about the stop loss which I consider it to be the most important element of investing. It is the most complex decision making in the trading system. I calculate my stop loss level according to my formula then establish the Risk factor to be used in position sizing.
Martin….Thanks for your invaluable info. You and your colleagues have provided good quality actionable advice.
Right now I’m about 50% in cash and T-Bills (Your suggestion.) The other 50% is in ETF’s, Gold (DGP) Silver (SLV) Gas (USG) inverse dollar and a small amount in food and commodities… MOO, JJA, etc where I’m testing the waters. I trail stops close and review them everyday… So far, this strategy is working well…..jac Punta Gorda, FL
I have been reading your news letters now for about a year. I have learned a lot, but I still don’t feel confident to do my own investing. I have read your book and I am wondering if you do seminars for individuals that would like to do their own investing? I feel I need a solid foundation to start from.
Thanks for all your insight.
I’m convinced after reading your book, that the buy and hold strategy is mostly good for Wall Street, not me. Like many of my friends, I’m down 40%+ from Sept. 2008, and my financial consultants continue with the same mantra…. buy, buy, buy. I’ve aligned approximately 15% of my remaining money with your MC portfolio and am willing to give it a go for at least the next 6 months. Thanks for helping me understand that selling is as important as buying.
Hello, Martin: At almost 72 yrs. old, I don’t feel like I have enough time to make up what I’ve lost in the last 12-20 months. Also, with most of my remaining $’s in a money market for safety’s sake, I’m wondering if a precious metal’s fund(gold, silver) would be the safest way to pull my self from the bottom of this hole. Even if I only regain a little, I feel like I would have accomplished a little.We’re not talking big bucks here, but I feel like I could make the remainder work harder. Your team is top notch..Thanks, Everett Kaminsky
I use TOPGUN software to invest in currency,also use META TRADER platform.I use gold and U.S. Dollar strength or weakness to determine direction of trend.YOUR WISDOM is more than APPRECIATED MR.WEISS.I AM VERY GRATEFUL for YOUR NEWS LETTERS MR.WEISS.Take CARE and GODBLESS YOU TO.
I understand your last question is: how do you select stocks going up in a down market?
Clearly, during the recent bullish move we have had, that was a relatively easy task, assuming you used some scanning software (Metastock, etc). Weiss experts should do some of this for its customers. I use technical analysis for most of my selections. Investor’s business daily and the Fast Money traders on CNBC sometimes have good ideas. I have also developed my own technical indicators, which work quite well. I sent you an e-mail message last month describing these, but never got a response from you or your staff. Are you interested in discussing this subject in more detail?
Hello Martin,
I do not possess the know how for neither capital preservation nor growth. Just when I was hopeless with my portfolio losses, I came upon Money & Market on line this year. After spending many months studying current & back issues (& also went on line to study Investopedia), I felt I had found life line in Martin’s team of advisors- it is free. Thank you! Martin.
After careful consideration, I unloaded the big bank long term notes albeit with a loss (I fear that I can potentially be one of those GM note holders). I also became a member of Martin’s MCP now following Claus’&Martin’s advice (I truly applaud and enjoy Claus’ monthly news letters) making long term investing. I also make short term buy/sell stocks that give dividends.
I do not use the waves of rallies to trade; rather, I take advice from different publications, I check out the recos then I buy, get my dividends and try to get out as quickly as I can. I am wet behind my ears. I win some, I also loose some when I get stuck with downward trend of a particular stock.
I started purchasing gold (and other metals )when it was 500 an ounce taking savings money from my job. I’ve built up a sizable amount along about now. I haven’t made a purchase for months since the price is over 900 in gold and I have gone on to invest in other forms of hard assets–a whole different market which needs to be followed only minimally, but it’s only direction is up. (It’s in rare items like book manuscripts, rare coins etc.). Those things are obviously long term, as I tend to have Martin’s atitude about preparing for the absolute worst and having something substantial to fall back on when disaster strikes. These manouvers are, of course, contrarian in nature; that’s what drew me to your original website (the 11 Bear Market moves) and to t he million dollar portfolio. In fact, I had just been recently to an open Investools seminar in manhattan and was interested in assuming self mastery over the big kahuna, my retirement portfolio…which I managed to take charge of at a critical point, selling and buying back in at the low of March 15,(so the government owes me!) and now, in this bear market rally I’ve been doing OK there, too. So as you can see, I’m clearly playing both sides, hedging my bets. All of this financial stuff has now gotten me very interested in studying to become a professional trader and so I’ll be taking a course in trading and forex. I figure, go for it! Shoot for the moon. Firing all this buckshot, something’s likely to score a hit. I love reading and hearing Claus’s assessments of where things are at. The more news you can get about what’s really going on the better your investment decisions will be.
We became a member of your service initially for education and a partner in
making investment decisions. When the economy began a tail spin, your service
was valuable in helping us to make some immediate transfer decisions which were
positive for us. Based on this positive trend, we decided to enter the ETFs with your suggestions; but with a very different outcome. We lost and continued to lose money.
So our faith was shaken, but we understood the economic climate and its risks.
Today, we are not losing money….but we are not keeping up with inflation, much less making great gains. To sit, seems a backward move…to invest more, seems a very risky move (we cannot afford to lose at this late date). So, the best word I can think of to apply to our current investing situation is “paralysis”. Like many, we are taking the “wait and see” approach, which can turn out to be no approach at all.
Thank you.
Commodities such as gold, oil and agricultural products have always been the most reliable stocks in Wall Street. They are not as manipulated by green shoots as retail, financials, auto, services, etc. My Kinross Gold Corp stock has been a consistent minig stock that matches the price of gold rather than the DOW and is easier to track because it is related more to the dollar. Exxon is another consistent stock with the price of oil. I haven’t lost in my trade with commdoties but once I take a chance outside of commodities such as doing a put option against SONY when that company IS doing poorly, the stock price jumps because the markets outside of commodites are controlled by mutual fund lemmings that indiscriminately buy both good and bad stocks based on “better-than-expected” earnings reports manipulated by Insiders who get the report and lowball it. Commodities and consumer staples also lose the least during a plunge. If you must be in the markets, best move is stick with commodites and consumer staples because they go up with the rest of the Dow Jones otherwise the is to wait this out and at least stay away from mutual funds because there is a lot of trash that will yank it down when people come to their senses.
As far as selling, you’ll never know when this ridiculous rally may end so I would wait until I double my money and take the principle out then trade another position. That way when the market crashes, you’ll lose the house money instead of your own AND the house money. You can sell out even at the slightest dip and still profit.
Dear Martin
This 84 year old “Hunk of flesh” is alway humbled by one axiom.
“It takes money to make money.”
I know because resources with SS income is relevant to hard times.
Thanks for your thoughts!
Take care and God Bless
6-4-09
Hi,
My answers:
I don’t really try to spot short-term rallies, I buy companies with good fundamentals ( low or no debt, good free cash flow, good sales, etc) that are strongly down from their 52 week highs, and in an industry that appears to have a strong future.
Spotting the risers in a falling market, is also something I don’t focus on. I just hope my analyses (based on info in question 1) enables me to choose companies that can withstand short-term market fluctuations and provide profits in the long-term.
I don’t focus on selling before a slide either. I’m in it for the long-term. Although I have taken some profits when my stocks reach circa +50%. But this is rare and only when there appears to be a strong possibility that the market is about to drop substantially.
Best Wishes and thanks for the afvice.
Denis.
Letting someone else use your money such that your money will increase can be described as either investing or speculating.
If the agreement with whom you allow the use of your money contractually requires a certain repayment at a certain rate, you are investing.
If you give someone money such that it might increase but without the protection of any contractual agreement such that you may lose it all, then you are speculating.
Stocks are speculative. Commercial bonds less so. Treasury bills and bonds (since they are issued in the same currency that the Treasury prints, and so you will definitely be paid back) are investments (this is true also of some CD’s and money markets).
I speculate only a little. Mostly I try to invest. I haven’t made a lot of money at it, but I’ve lost nearly nothing.
In this environment, the return of principal seem more important than the return to principal.
That said, my speculations are in Gold and Oil, as a hedge against the devaluation of my “investments”.
I am a hybrid investor. My long-term choices are usually following the long-term bear trend. However I follow a few stocks quite closely, and try to clip some short-term gains whenever there is a favorably entry point. These trades are open only for a day or two or three, and they are stocks that I wouldn’t mind holding for the long-term, but perceive significant price risk. Also my bull trades may be tightly stoplossed. So I don’t care about short term rallies in the market, but short term rallies in the specific stocks I follow. I have a profit goal, when I reach it I sell. I don’t get all the potential profit (who does), but I get a realized profit.
What fun reading all the comments. I stayed in the market but am repositioning slowly. Am up 38% since March low. I follow the precious metals, look at charts constantly and bought Gold a few dollars above 700 late 2008 and have not added to my position I sold when it hit 1,000 and am now basically in SLV and physical Gold and physical Silver. If GLD breaks down below 900 I may take another position. I do own some minning stocks as per Claus’s direction but I bought later than suggested as I got a good pull back. I am anything but a long term investor. I used to be but now I think it is dangerous. I have missed some big moves because I tend to take profits earlier I am satisfied with a 40% move or I sell half a position to lock in the profit and closely watch the balance of my position.Start my morning with Investor’s Business Daily and then look at some charts. It is easier than ever to put in stop losses so I am confident in managing my risk. I have a Blackberry which allows me instant access to my e mail alerts. I will buy one of the tiny new computers they are super cheap which will allow me to trade online when I am out and about. I tell myself “Joy be nimble Joy be Quick!” and without access to the Internet I am at a disadvantage. I have close pals who manage Private Family Wealth and while we never discuss any particular trade they are doing we do discuss Market Technicals and trends. One of my pals advised going to Cash in late 2007 and called for DOW 6500 bless her as she saved me a bundle. In March I went back in heavily and am nervously investing full tilt. However I have 3 years of Cash for living expenses that I do not risk.You Guys are the best and I feel very privileged to hear what you are saying as it gives me balance and perspective. Keep up the good work you are not wrong I believe this is a Bear Market rally and BEWARE THE BEARS as we surely are all in the woods.
Reading the Blogs from your subscribers I seem to fall in line; 70% long term with patients / 30% short term.
I have been following Sagami and Edelson very closely. Both have what appears to be some interesting picks that do not require full-time monitoring but are certainly (in this manipulated market) not as volatile as Inverse ETF’s and Shorts. Further, making some additional profits would help dampen the waiting period would for the manipulated market to abate.
In for the long haul! A. Montalbano
Hi Martin,
Last year was by far my most profitable year as an investor. However even though i was quite confidant that stocks would go down it was very hard to determine when.
Luckily i was extremely short in late sept. when stocks took their historic plunge which enabled me to take large profits.
However this year i have given back some of those gains largely due to inverse ETF’s which i did NOT trade last year.
Technical analysis does not apply to them because of the way they are structured and they can be as volatile to the downside as they can to the upside.
In addition the market appears more manipulated and govt/fed intervened than ever and while i still feel that no amount of printing can overcome the deflationary spiral we are caught in – there are legendary investors such as Jim Rogers (normally one of my very favorites!) who disagree – and its not easy to be on the other side of people like him.
As long as you feel confident about the continuing deflationary spiral that is STILL happening around us there will be an incredible shorting opportunity should the S & P break 1000.
However it may be easier to time and short individual names than ETF’s……………
Many experts say that the average investor should never buy individual stocks, and that is probably good advice. However, if someone does buy stock in a single company, I think that he should consider the guidelines given by Burton H. Pugh in his book, “A Better Way To Make Money”. While Mr. Pugh was writing about the market of 70 to 80 years ago, an updated version of his methods could still be used as one of the criterion used to make a decision about buying a stock.
Having lost 70% of my retirement, down more than $80k. any good suggestions$
E.T.
I avoid the Stock Market like the plague. Way back, when just a young adult, I bought stocks in, what I thought, were two excellent corporations. They were – B-U-T good old Harry Truman took on “big steel” and the bottom dropped out of both corporations. Fortunately, my life savings were not involved. Had they been…. ! In recent years, I’ve purchased double tax free municpal and state bonds. Interest is not high but at least, for the time being, my principle is sort of safe. Chiina? I have deep reservations. Gold. ETF sounds good. But with the present philosophy in Washington, I question most any American company.
Hi Guys,
After reading Martin’s Crash Survival Guide I bought some inverse ETF’s.
SKF QID & SRS
I agree with all Martin’s sentiments about the market but I carnt understand why when bad news hits the press such as GM going bust the stock market rises and my ETF’s fall.
I am down 25% and am looking for some reassurance that others out there also think the bear market will kick back in soon.
Anyone?
I don’t see how we can avoid inflation and possibly hyper inflation with all this deficit spending therefore I personally feel more comfortable with having my IRA invested in either gold or natural resources and preferably not denominated in the dollar.
Bailout is a joke and we need to have obama brought to court, find him guilty of treason and hang him in the middle of the street in D.C. along with Bush and many others. We need to get back to the basic God given rights and hang a few people and just maybe someone will take the hint and get their act together. America was and still is a Christian Nation and until we recognize and understand that, and put God back at the head of Government as was in the beginning all the protest, writing, marches, flag waving, complaining, bitching etc., will be totally useless, and will never work. I do not look upon obama as President, He is not qualified and as such in my eyes he is not our president, He is a actor and poor one at that. A disgrace to the American race.
Short term. Like to make a little in the bear up tic —–I use the short term 15 day and the long term 65 day moving adv. and when the they cross trade. Thanks for all the good Info look foward to your e-mail everday
Tommy
Hi Martin! Truely admire your contrarian stance. I think you reinforce my own personal bias which is to regard the stock market, and more specifically the financial sector, as overbought and due for another 2 to 5 month slide. Am mostly in cash at the moment with a small short position in the banking sector which I added to today (Thursday, June 4).
Thanks for keeping me on your mailing list. Always enjoy reading your emails as they are far more insightful than anyone I see/hear on CNBC…..Am very impressed with Mr. Vogt as well.
Cheers, Pete Wolfsehr
as a retiree, I am all in. There is no tomorrow. My TIAA/CREF was wiped out. I am on my own with less than 1K. What do I do?
If I miss the option date, I will lose all I have. What a crap shoot!
Martin:
I am in Short financial ETF’s (SKF to be exact). I made some huge gains back when the market was more volatile, but now it seems as though the market does not know that the “iceburg for the titanic” is already here and things are going to get worse. How do we explain buyers paying high prices for bank stocks that are fundamentally broke? Is there any hope for the market to “get smart” and turn down any time soon? Your insights have been invaluable to me. Your thoughts?
Up mkts. on bad news, stagnent gold, further Mkt. manupilation. Look at vol. easy to hold up mkt. on limited action. Darius
I am on Social Security which is going down the tubes. They want to take away from Medicare but can still bail all these big businesses out Would you Believe.
I have traded all types of markets since 1972 when I first became involved with Silver futures. I have developed some very fundamental ideas regarding all markets, namely: 1) do not become a “long term trader” as markets are for trading not investing 2) if you want to avoid the uncertainties of fluctuating financial products buy interest bearing instruments only 3) this is the hard part-look for opportunities where the public is overly optimistic or pessimistic 4) never enter a market without an exit strategy using stop losses and exit points for profits.
I sold most, not all, of my real estate holdings in ‘06 when everyone, and I mean everone including my broker, said I was foolish to do so. My response was to quote Baron Rothchld when asked how he amassed his fortune; well he said, ” I took my profits” Good!
The public is clueless on exiting the market, especially when confronted with substantial gains. Their response to taking the money is usually “NO DEAL”. Or, when losses pile up they utter the mantra, “we are in for the long term”. Dumb
Ron Howard
I am retired. Have lost 40% of my liquid assets (stocks). For some reason, my stocks have not participated in this recent rally, and I have made back only 15%. I am a member of the Million Dollar portfolio, and trust that Claus will lead the way to profitability. I believe that the buy and hold mentality is a thing of the past. Long term nowadays is 1 year, and selling at certain times to lock in profits is a new “must”. So someone has to help me to tell me, when to buy, and when to sell.Doris Jones
Would like you opinion on investing using the TAA (technical assett allocation) method.
Thank you,
Dear Martin, How do I know a short-term rally is coming, and when to take profits? I don’t, myself—that’s why I subscribe to Safe Money, the Million Dollar Portfolio, and Mike Larsen’s recession service. When you say buy, I buy; when you say sell, I sell—
unless I’m away from home for a couple of weeks, in which case I generally lose a bundle, or get stuck with something. Hedging my bets, I also subscribe to Dick Young’s newsletter, having found him (along with you) the guru most often right.
I remember the advice my Dad gave me years ago which he discovered for himself many years ago. He was born in 1912 and lived until the age of 76. He saw many people invest in many schemes, some of which provided the promise of good profits in the short term and most of which cost more than they made. He always said that nobody should invest more money in stocks and shares than they could afford to loose, rather invest in bricks and morter. People will always need a home so investing in property is sound. Do not rely on any quick profit – most schemes loose in the long term. The longer I live the wiser I realise my Dad was. Eve
We are very upset about the activities in this administration. The are socializing our country with banks autos and healthcare. We need to stand up and take back our beloved country as it may be to late.
Not sure this is appropos of tools for the “short term”, but Wm. J. O’Neil/Investor’s Business Daily offer a system, discipline, both fundamental and technical criteria, and daily updates for making money in growth stocks. [Further out, I suggest focusing on four "themes": food shortages, oil shortage, materials for developing nations' infrastructure, and high (hyper?) inflation of US, EU, UK, etc. currencies.] May I add: you, and your father before you, represent the very peak of wisdom and integrity in this uncertain but vital realm — Bill O’Neil too!
Buy and hold is dead. The trend is your friend. Swingtrade with short term goals and tight stops and run it like the business that it is. You got a pathetic loser, kick it to the curb and move on. Don’t fall in love with any companies, as it will be an unrequited love affair. Most of all, if you can’t take a daily look at your account, you should be in cash. This market is truly enemy territory.
I’m into Claus’s reco for the long term but enjoy day trading the triple leveraged ETF’s . They usually gap at the open and gaps allow you to know your support area in order to place a proper stop. i’ve also had some success swing trading some of Larry’s suggestions. These are desperate times for our economy and our country and fear that we will be in a recession the remainder of my life. I’m 79
Iv looked at so many sites that make recomendations they claim so much – but I do not believe them -!They offer no proof. The only reason I have a subscription to Contrarian P. is that you have put your own funds in to the investments- this was an very intelligent idea.
It shows the only things that are important here trust , honesty and openness.
I have not found any one else doing what you have done.
If you are considering offering some way to take advantage of some short term gians in this Mad market with a small amount of risk capital why not follow the same idea as you have with C.P.
It is clear, finally that almost all FA’s brokers and banks have been telling lies to their clients for years.
People have short memories once this maddness calms down the banks,FA’s and brokers will return to their old ways with the help of governments- so who can you trust? Not your bank thats for sure.
I like many others do not have time for the research required to take the advantage of this risky market nor do I have the knowlege. I have a major loss of capital to make up from the losses made for me by my last FA. I need to make good these losses in what ever way I can. If taking advantage of the short term market will make even small gains it is worth it – a £100 gain is a £100 more than you had before.
As for many- This is not a game for fun it is deadly serious -I have reasons way beyound just wanting more money.My funds are already allocated to supporting someone else who cannot support themselves.
It looks like we are wintessing a “stabilization” of the U.S. economy, even though it has been likened to a “sugar high”. It also appears that the long-awaited flight from the dollar has begun, which is inflating everything else relative to it. We see commodities, emerging economy markets and gold jumping.
It may also be that U.S. stock market is rising not because of fundamentals, but as a compensating reaction to the weakening dollar. As we begin to consume, US companies will raise price andmake profits, even if on lower sales volume. So I ask you and Claus, is this perhaps not a bear market rally, but rather a lasting compensation for the anticipated sins of quantitative easing ?
To avoid great losses, set limits on the downside with your ETF’s. It is a simple click or two away.That way you will probably only lose what you are comfortable with-not 90% for me anyway.
we must impeach the pres. v.pres & all down the chain of command & senators and & congressmen as they took an oath to uphold OUR constution& have done great harm to the republic. we need a leader to start this necessary movement TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE IN THIS REGARD,BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.
why is obama FORCING states to take the money?
why are we borrowing from china to give it to palistinians??
why are we giving billions away in benefits to people here ILLEGALY when our roads are crap
claude is right…why is no one upset about these CZARS obama is appointing? russia has czars not us!
he is turning the US into a social state.
The market is being manipulated by the Feds and upper class elitests. Best bet is to stay out of the market and evaluate commodities. Gold and silver is definately something any investor should have at this time. However, it is not just about money and investing. It is all about America and the people. We are losing our nation, our soverignty, capitalism and our freedoms. Yes, I am sure most of you have been Republicans like myself. But it is clear that neither party represents the American people. As the morals of society continue to decline of course our political reps, regardless of party are all about themselves while America is going in the tank. How could they ever obtain a New World Order (one world government) when America is the powerful world leader. Consequently, they are dragging America down to promote a united governing body for the world under a one world currency. We are in major trouble. I would just advise all to stay close to God and read the Bible. It looks like we are moving toward the last days.
I’m itching to buy SRS, since I’ve been in the commercial real estate business for the last 20 years and we believe the market will continue to go down the next 12 month. I’ve been watching SRS for the last 6 month and it was recommended to buy already a while back when it was trading in the $50 range. It just made a new low below $20. It seems the companies SRS “plays” with lost already a lot of their value and it almost seems they migth not have much room to go lower. If we can figure out when it will build a bottom I’m very tempted to buy SRS, even SRS call options. What do you recommend.
Oh, forgot to mention that our dollar will certainly decline in value in the near future and we will see hyper-inflation. Real Estate is another great investment but evaluation of location and purpose for the property are key factors. Very sad to see for our children and grandchildren.
I am very unsure of myself. I would like to invest $100.00 per month, but do not know who would do this for me. I do not know who to send this money to. I do read, but I don’t want to read all the information that is sent to me. It is just overload. Most brokers I have ever talked with, want to deal with people who have thousand’s to invest up front and charge large commissions on each transaction. I believe in your stock picks, but still do not know how to purchase these stocks you suggest. Any suggestions on what I should do, would be appreciated.
Thank you.
I am of the same veiw as you. but I wonder if we are wrong. I recieved you safe money for some time now. You predicted the housing crash and the stock market crash 2 years before it happaned. During this time the stock market went up a lot.
Now it looks like the same thing is happening. Everything is going up because of inflation, no deflation. money in the bank is worth less.
fearing inflation last fall I went into debt and bought a lot of farmland thing I would be paying it off with cheeper money, like the goverment.
a few weeks ago I sold all the stock I biought in March and bought the DXD. It looks like I was wrong. My question, How high does the market have to get before my share are worth zero?
Thanks
Ray
I think Martin is off the mark this time. Stan Weinstein taught me a long time ago that the tape tells all. Benjamin Graham taught us to by when there’s blood in the streets. Anybody could have bought stocks on March 9th and made 50% on their money. I believe the market will be choppy for next few months but the A/D line is finally turning around, the VIX is showing bullish signals. The bears will keep getting burned as this market continues to turn around. I will eat my laptop if the Dow and S&P go down to 5000 & 500. Ain’t gonna happen, not this time around.
I meant to say, “Throw in . . . Motley Fools too.” Please correct for me, if you will. I just read Ron Howard’s comments above. I often can see things coming, but I often pull the trigger too soon because it is so obvious to me. ie. We sold our apartment complex in 2004 because the real estate market was too crazy even two years before it broke. But, whoever consistently gets the last “eighth?”
Ron White (I’m not Ron Howard, though, ironically, my middle name is Howard.)
Martin, First a huge thanks to you and your team for all of your help, recos, information, and concern about the protection of my “wealth”. It was the info I received in Safe Money Report that some years ago got me back into the market and that same info has helped me on many occasion.
Now, to answer your questions…
First, I have a program which identifies the seasonality of stocks, their seasonal performance over the years, and time of the trade. I use candlesticks, Wms. %R, moving averages looking for crossovers, stochastics, look for squeeze patterns on MOBO bands, and glance at MACD. I find that these confirm each other and the seasonality.
Once in a trade I look for reversal signs using the same indicators. Once I note potential reversal signals, I will exit the trade…I try not to be a glutten!, just take my profits and look for the next potential profit I also roll my options to take money off the table while allowing them to continue to run.
Because I am an option trader I find I can make money no matter market direction. I love inverse ETF’s in short markets and double long ones in an up market. For my stock positions, I will use puts to protect in a down market and calls to enhance them in an up market. Sideways markets call for other techniques.
Using the info gleaned from you and your team plus the techniques I use I have been able to prevent the loss that many have had, and even profitted, though not as much as in previous years. However, given current market conditions, any profit is a plus!
Thanks, Betsy Burnell
Martin:
The days of buy and hold have long since past, except in a rare few cases. The small time investor (i.e. I consider anyone who invests money from his/ her own IRA, with less than $1M is a small time investor these days!) doesn’t stand a chance against the powerful market forces today; especially when one considers that all markets (stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities) are being manipulated continuously by our government as well as by JPM and GS.
So What to Do?
One must study hard, be patient, and be willing to invest in market shorts and a few market longs. Fortunately for me, I am a subscriber to one of your services (Weiss million dollar contrarian portfolio); the investment decisions that you guys are, for the most part, the ones that I am making.
In a nutshell, that’s the reason why I’m comfortable with my longs and my shorts.
Martin
My investing plain is to by stocks that pay at least 4.5% dividend ,and try to diversify investments as much as i can. and a small amount of shorts on, and increase if the market
realy starts to drop. But i don’t know when that is so i keep stops close to get me out if it goes against me. This is a low risk trade , If you have any suggestions please forward.
Thans Again George
Your advice saved me a kings ransom. Keep up the good work
I’m glad that I have never invested in the stock market or anything else. I’ve saved my money over the years, and I have seen many people around me lost lots of money.
…”Ever Since I Watched The Obama Deception (and I Totally Believe It’s Message), I’ve Become Very Sensitive To The Current Developement’s (Trying To Introduce/Pass Citizen De-Fying Bill’s) Of The U.S. Congress and Other Negative Action’s By The Government. I Now Have A Lot Of Question’s Of The U.S. Government And How It’s Being Ran! Trust Has Been Depleted From Me And Other’s Concerning The Current Administration (And It Does’nt Matter Whether They Are A Dem/Rep/Ind).”
Two Question’s “Stand Out” In Our Mind’s: Why Are There “Bilderberg Group” Representative’s In The Administrative Section Of Government? This Is “Treason” And Should Not Be Allowed! Why Has’nt The Federal Reserve Responsibility’s Been “Turned-Back” To The United State’s Government, Where It Belong’s?…..and “ON AND ON!”..
Should I expect the 90-day T-Bill interest rate to increase a couple of points any time soon?
For short-term timing I believe you have to turn to technical analysis. It is my experience that the best short-term or intermediate term indicators are oscillators that show that an extreme in sentiment has been reached and that the tide is now turning. There is an old saying that “a rising tide lifts all boats”, so it is best to find stocks that move with the market and make sure you have your general market timing right before you apply other criteria. To time waves of buying or selling I believe cyclical analysis would be helpful. I would love to see more of Larry Edelson’s work in that area. By the way, thank you for your excellent book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide”. I read it cover to cover. You did an awesome job with it and I love how you interspersed quotes and tidbits of wisdom from your Dad throughout!
Hello Dr. Weiss,
First, I like to say thank you for your kindness of giving good advices, opinions, and predictions of stock market to all investors. I am only a begining small investor. I just want to trade stock with a hope that I can make some money for my children go to college in the next 2 years.
In a bull market, I like to trade longterm. But for a bear market like this, or a crazy market (one day up, one day down, the next day up, the next day down), I like to stay on the side and wait until you give me a signal to buy, then I will jump in and buy the good one. I still don’t know is this a right time to buy inverse ETF or not? Can you tell me, please! About the tools, I don’t think any tool may works right now. None! The market is up or down depends on the ecomomy news. If good news are more than bad news, then stock will go up or vise versa. I have a feeling that Wall Street has set up every thing.
If I buy a stock now, I will immediatly set a sell trailing stop right away.
Dr. Weiss, please let me know when will be the right time to buy inverse ETF?
Thank you and have a nice day.
Khai Nguyen
I am a very long term investor, you can only do 4 things with money, Spend, save, invest or speculate, all have their place. I want buy all the way down and then as a market starts to bounce I sell off the lots as they become profitable if I need the money. I also reinvest my dividends through my drips or my broker.
Jeff
Dear Martin,
It appears that my message to you just written a minute ago is lost. This will be more brief than the first. I am a first-time subscriber to your financial reports. I have checked you out over the past month and I hope you are as good as the faith I have in you based on the research I have done. I am a retired pubic high school teacher and coach after 43 years of consecutive serve…2 states, 6 schools, and several subjects. Not until a recent divorce have I been able to save and invest….just before I retired in Dec 2002. I have a few TSA’s and I have a couple of commercial corporate real estate investments that have been safe but the financial failures over the past couple years is reducing the stock values on the growing number of shares that I hold. I don’t trust the stock markets much…also having 71,000 shares in a very hopeful high-tech company that bottomed out, but I have not taken my loses yet, at least with the IRS.
I live in CA which is not a great state to be a resident of, as taxation is a record-high here. I am conservative in most every way possible, lifestyle, health etc. I am expecting good information, and to learn a lot from you Martin. I hate ‘liars and cheaters” and I am sure that you do too. Discernment is what life is all about. Teach me well, and explain it in simple terms, please, so that I will be able to invest well, and get out like I did not do…with those 71,000 shares I still have in Rim Semi-conductors. I had every hope they were to be another company patterned after the Cal-Com Company. They still have patents and products in use all over the world, but they lost their momentum. So far I have not posted my losses with the IRS. You might call me “polyanna” and it would not be too far from true. I think positively and do not quickly give up. Both my son and I, were in that investment and we decided to hang in there because of all that we knew before the great fall.
Just call me Jean, as everyone else does, even though my true name is Macel Jean Palmer. Thank you in advance for helping me to learn much about financial matters so that I can be self-suffiecient to the end.
You and Claus maintain that it is a bear market rally in a long term down market. My real question is how can we be sure that it is a bear market rally instead of a new bull market.
My understanding is that typically bear market bottom out when the economic condition looks in a profoundly dire situation and by the time we realize that it is a bull market, the best part of the market rise is already over.
I seriously wonder if the bear market might have bottomed out in early March of this year and we might realize that only by hindsight in the future. Do you ever wonder about it? Your comment would be greatly appreciated.
I have noticed that within the Weiss organization their are conflicting views and recommendations. Your man that writes Uncommon Wisdom has for some time been predicting that there would be a significant market gain, even as high as 9500 DOW while at the same time there is Claus and others, including yourself, constantly predicting that the bottom would fall out of the market every day. First, I recognize that no one really knows what will happen to the market but for me the most helpful thing your organization could do would be get all your expects together and develop a probablility function which would say what the probablility is that the market will continue up or start down. Obviously, this would not be fool proof but those in the orgainization have good arguments for their position, which ever it might be. So, if the bears and bulls sit down and weigh each others positions and then give guess at a prediction it might be very helpful. Along with this suggestions as to exactly which stocks they would recommend that would do well in either event would always be helpful.
Lael
Martin,
I am 66 and still working. I don’t have time to try and time the ralleys. However, there is only one answer for someone my age who wants to make money on the up ticks. Pick the best mannaged companies with the most cash on hand. Buy as close to the bottom as your tools can predict. Then be satisfied with a small gain and get out. You can’t predict the tops. I would have thought the skittish market would have had reason to dive already. Fundamentals are not there.
As a (planning to retire soon) investor, I feel that we have no options available to us in “safe and secure” 1% returns. Our parents could invest in CD’s at reasonable rates. With sure inflation staring us in the eye, that just won’t get it; so thank you for the opprortunity to invest with a professional. One thing I would like to have is some recommendations when the bulls return for real, that will give me not only opportunities for growth but also solid dividens with a high enough return that I have a cash stream to live on when I finally do retire. Plus the tools to know when the investment is no longer sound. One stock that I have been reluctant to sell is ETP because they pay a high dividend but keep that dividend at a reasonable percentage of earnings, rather than paying out more than they earn. Then I set reasonable stop losses. When the market turns bullish, can you find us ole’ folks some good long term dividend payers.
I am a “calm” long term investor who can’t afford to loose much of my principal.
Regards,
Jim
Martin, I enjoy every one of your columns. I am trading the market regularly and doing better with long positions than short positions. I have difficulty with the position that the market is going to crash….The market has recently been through a minor correction of 50% from it’s last run per the S&P and has recently nosed through the 200 day moving average. Additionally, the 20 day moving average is just a gnat’s eyelash from over running the 200 day average. The Bollingers have been ‘upturned’ since March and the market has yet to close through the upper BB, to signal a major correction is due. It bounced up off the midband in april and is still looking for the top BB to bounce from. Additionally, the S&P is still ensconced midway in it’s channel with no indication that it has run out of steam. Am I trading like gangbusters? No. This bear market has made a respector of me and now I grade cautiously. Am I a believer of ‘buy and hold’? Uh-uh, no no no. If one does not respect the market, even a bull market, one will end up with one’s pockets turned inside out. I still don’t listen to brokers (who are now shouting short short short) knowing that their palaber is self-serving. Once everybody is short, you know which way the market is headed. Play a reverse-ETF? Sure, for three hours max, because the trend is always changing.
Keep ‘em coming,
John
Oops! ….trade cautiously.
I’m very inexperienced at this whole market game. Honestly aside from you guys ( THE PROFESSIONALS), can anyone make any sense of the madness on Wall Street. I joined your million dollar contrarinan web site because you made the first really good sense out of all the crazyness I’ve been reading in the last 8 months. I needed a vehicle to get part of my retirement portfolio back on track after what happened on 2008 and I believe you are my limosine. I’m satisfied with slow and steady as long as the dollar figures in my account continue to increase. And when the time comes for us to go ALL IN, well, that is what I’m truely looking forward to. Making landslide sized profits.
Thank you Michael
I wish the other Republican websites were like grassroots. I just came from one
who wanted a $1000 contribution. I would ask for “whatever you can give”. I
think they would get more that way.
They’re as bad as Obama-soaking the rich to support the non-contributors. But,
seriously I am disturbed by almost everything Obama is doing. I think he
fashions himself as a great savior who will bring the violent terrorists to their knees, and all beheadings and “jets flying into our buildings” will stop.
He has destroyed most of the auto industry, seriously hurt the banks, closed
car dealerships with a few days notice, and, upon his return, he will destroy our
health care system, which, tho’ not perfect, is the best in the world. Then
he will do his best to shut down conservative talk radio, while putting a woman
on the Supreme Court who does not seem like lifelong Supreme Court material.
I can’t think of anything he has done that pleases me. I hope the Republicans
will all vote in 2010. A lot of Republicans stayed home because they didn’t like
McCain, and that helped Obama!
What is your thought on America’s new legal tender… the U.S. Treasury has finally approved a new gold-backed dollar!
Each dollar will be backed by one gram of pure 24-karat gold.
It will rise with the price of gold..
It will work along side our existing dollar…
I just read it on a news letter advertisement today!
Apparently it is already or soon to be available to the public!
First I have heard of it!
I apologize if you have addressed this before!
I would think it would be big news!
Do you recommend it?
JJK
This is an exciting time filled with amazing opportunity! Severely challenged by the 90’s Recession, my husband and I learned how to think differently and find the contrarians; we restored and rocketed to new success in the 2000’s….thank goodness, because we now have some cushion for the 2009 Recession/Depression. Following Harry Dent, we sold 3 homes in 2006 at the peak of the market, and were prepared to sell our current home by 2010. OOPS! The 3 bubbles burst a little sooner than we expected! I did sell nearly all stocks in March, 2009, but thought mutual funds were “safer.” So, we’re real-estate heavy and investment portfolio is down 45%. We’ve taken the “Weiss Advice” and swept some monies into a Treasuries Money Market fund (one you recomended in “Ultimate Depression Guide”). Now, we’re seeking short-term profits and will sell to lock them in. “Long-term” is now an oxymoron. Our goal is to accumulate as much cash as possible, because we know you’re right about the coming deflation. We subscribe to Uncommon Wisdom and the Million Dollar Portfolio and believe that we CAN benefit from this erratic economy!
Martin,
I was meaning to write for the past few days. Time is money and lately I seem to be short on both. However I do feel compelled to thank your for you saving advise over the past month or so. Since coming a member of the Million $ Portfolio. I taken much more stock in what you and your team write in the columns. Thanks to you I have recovered from a 83% deficit in my portfolio to an amazing 50% deficit since the crash. I follow your M$P have picked up a few of my own stock picks in the Mining sector (My Carrier is in mining) so I felt comfortable once you led the way. My goal is to recover enough to cover my mortgage and buy out now. At 55 I still have time to build on my retirement. $10K short of $250 in my primary acct. With Three brokerage accounts all following your lead. I feel confident that my second goal will be met in prudent time for our leisure years. I have more than recovered my memberships.
Oh ya! My trading habits: In it for the long haul but like to stop and play in the ditch on occation. I have my favorits that day trade fairly well in all markets. Armed with your advise this seems less riskey. Number one rule in day trading “Don’t forget to Sell!” Greed kills.
God Bless you and your team,
Jim
I do not have a plan for picking stocks. This is precisely why I was not thrilled about the FDO & AAN plays in the market. Picking individual stocks is like playing Black Jack at the casino. You think you have a strategy, but it really is nothing more than luck.
Why are we not making some sort of longer term play that invests in the falling dollar and/or rising interest rates?
Anthony
I hold 80% Canadian $ Etfs and 20% Stocks. Iike both long and short term investments over a wide number of sectors and do a little Day-Trading. I am retired and enjoy playing the markets,its a great challenge. My portfolio is up about 25% since I started trading on-line 8 months ago. There is no shortage of get rich Newsletter providers.All one needs to do is buy their truly different product and get after it. I am sure I can use some sound advice on how to obtain better results within the areas of interest. From what I have read from your material you seem to have what I have not found “out-there” after they have your credit card confirmation. Look forward to hearing from you.
When Hugo Chavez comments that Obama is further to the left than he or Fidel Castro and Pravda from Russia warns us we have gone down without a whimper and are now a socialist county, then I think the citizens of the Untied States better start to take notice of what is happening in Washington. They all, all of them, were elected to represent us not dictate to us.
I believe the market ahead still dangerous and I follow the market trend. So many thanks to you and your team in money and market and uncommon wisdom, because your opinion/idea help me much in analyse market in my country. It takes time for me to join your million-dollar contrarian member, but I always follow your step.
Martin….your analysis of important market components are ALL right on….but the market doesnt ALWAYS behave as it ” should “……currently solar energy stocks are on a run…can you offer a couple long and inverse Solar energy ETF’s to capture some profits in this exciting and volatile sector……
Every body worries about possible socialized medicine and all the money it will cost. This not including all the stimulus money and bloated government. What about the bankrupt social security administration and the cost to save a dying venture? We all have to regain control, shrink government and it’s wanting to control our lives from birth to death. Let’s be energy dependent, drill our own oil and shoot the fools promoting the false fear of global warming!
My method for years was to use WSJ’s daily Digest of Earnings Reports from which I built a card file of company quartely earning and made log charts of earnings growth. (It got me into CSCO.) Can’t do it any more because the Journal has stopped publishing the digest and nobody seems to know where else I can go to replace it. IF YUO KNOW PLEASE TELL US.
I dend to get out when the p/e is too high or the financials break down – and finally when the price starts down – someties too late.
I started my plotting with a pencil and finally went to Excel. five years actual plus two for estimates and showing revenues prices, book values, etc. Labor intensive, The results went into a database to which I added a few company financials and institutional holdings.
I quit in mid 2008 because nothing I did was reavent to the market.
I hold JNJ, bond funds, bank CDs and cash.
At 92, my policy is not to lose money. ===gm===
Hello Martin:
I would like to concentrate on any investment that would realize income.
I have been following most of your news letters and seminars but I have yet to invest.
Gene Mickelson
I have been a long time subscriber to your Safe Money and have benefited greatly by your warnings of the financial problems that have in fact developed. It seems as if you wrote the script that the economy followed ressultime in an enormous loss of wealth for investors that ignored your warnings. So what I want is a clear no-nonsense analysis of where our economy is heading, and where the most trustworthy investments can be found. Thanks again for the many “heads-up” you have provided your clients.
We are in trying times. Anyone that says they can consistently pick winners be cautious of them. I try to spot trends & patterns. I listen to the advice of Dr. Weiss & his people then I will search out companies & industries that are profiting from the current economic conditions. These market conditions are constantly changing.
I no longer sit on stocks for years. I do not become enamored with a company, stock or industry it is an investment only to be traded at some point!! When I decide to take money off the table is when after my fees & capital gains I have made at least 10%.
The only way I know how to accumulate real wealth is to consisitently take profits. Paper profits are great but look at the average value of a home after this past year 10, 20, 30% in some cases, that is a great loss of wealth.
Not to say that real estate & homes are a bad investment, they are part of a complete & balanced portfolio. They are & should be considered very long term investments. Your personal home is just that your home not an ATM nor an investment.
Im definately a novice investor. I have followed your advice since my inception in Nov/08 and have made solid gains from your guidance. Thank you!
I am apparently a mixed investor, with 50% of my portfolio currently playing the longer term bear market with inverse etf’s on the S&P, bull on gold and mining. I just cashed in all of my oil stocks and will leave it in cash for now, along with other $ from lucky picks.
Short term, I just bought some agriculture etf’s that I hope will pop soon, if not then inflation will take care of them.
In the current markets Im finding that Im not sure where to go. My tolerance for risk is pretty high as Im young so there is room for a few uncertainties. I think the bomb will drop soon and Im waiting for the bargains after the bottoms are tested again. But, I agree with you that the bear’s roar will come after the summer. For now Im trying out FAS and a quick bull on natural gas.
Any other short term ideas?
Sincerely,
CB
I believe Obama is bankrupting our country. I am 100% against this stimulus bailout
Hi,Martin
I appriciate the thinking you have done
@ important tops cycles will invert i.e., where a bottom should appear a top will form. In the dow a 75 year cycle low should have occured in 2007 instead the cycle inverted. The 4 year cycle & decinnial pattern inverted as well. A crash often occures in Oct of the 7th year when the 4 year cycle bottoms in a 2nd year.
It was easy to see that the rally from the 2002 low was a B wave. 5 waves have unfolded from the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. (Could have been wave C of a flat that started in 2002) I went long after a very profitable short position on Mar 10th based on price pattern & Steve Putze potential crash window. This market could rally sharply to all time highs in an expanding wedge & then have even a bigger crash. I made more money last year then I made working for the last 30 years. Making money not by luck but by understanding what you are thinking is very rewarding. I payed the price by cultivating reflective thought from the recording of logic. Instead of learning how to play the market I took a differnt approach & I think of how to play the market.My primary focus of study is making money during a market crash. I think there is a high propability I will make over a 1000 fold on my money by the time the dow bottoms. Then I will need the help of someone that knows about bonds which is not my focus of study.
I invest 3% in my 401K…it’s all I can afford…and now they are wanting 3100.00 a year from me, I’ll have to stop investing and use that to survive. I can’t make it now, Why is so many people brain washed by this man.
Martin
I am in full agreement with your view of our country’s financial situation. I want to consider both long term and short term approaches to trading the market. I will place both long term and short term trades. Thank you for your insight. I think a major financial collapse in another country (eg: England, etc.) will trigger the next major downward move in the USA.
Lee landry
What is the difference between Hyperinflation and Depression and how both would normally effect your lives… They listen attentively….
In a hyperinflationary situation, one usually created by a hyper expansionary government, a debt loaded economy or some catastrophe such as a major war, the money supply is rapidly expanded. The economy continues to roll along, jobs continue to exist as demand also continues to exist. At first, the workers are freed from their debts, as the amounts owned literally melt away in the face of larger and larger pay checks. Of course, as is usual, salaries rarely stay up to date with prices, which are much more agile and elastic. Soon the worker finds that while debt free, he can afford less and less to buy with his ever more worthless money, but at least, ground under the heel of hyperinflation, he is still employed and remains fed, even if on bread and processed meat rather then on croissants and steak.”
They bob their heads in understanding. Many of these peoples of the world have lived all their lives with inflations of one level or another and quite a few with hyperinflation. It is, after all, the order of the century, as the godling Keynes dictated to the interventionist fiat monetary systems. I go on.
Then there is depression, something that most of you know little about. First spending falls, then output falls to match the new lower demand levels. Of course excess employees are laid off. These in turn spend little if anything and their employed brethren also spend much less, in fear of losing their jobs. Less spent means less produced and the cycle repeats. Debt become overwhelming and crushing, as the value of the dollar becomes greater, again, adding to the cycle. Of course, for those tens of millions unemployed, at least what few savings they have and what little money they get from their governments, will now buy them more then it did before.The pricing levels of the system are reset and will be kinder to future generations, but like most such things, it is painful and a nasty, if not necessary a long, process.
But how does this link back to Depressionary-Hyperinflation?” again that doubting Sean. Enough of this, time to learn fear.
“Well,” I begin, in an quite, almost gentle voice, “you see, the people fear this painful process of depression and they call upon their betters, their masters to do something, anything about it. Of course the Monetary Interventionists know only one thing to do: lower interest rates and print money. At first, this makes the pain less so and easier to bare. The problem is, especially for you millions and millions of unemployed, it is rather hard to propagate. Each easing requires more and more cash, sorta like a drug addiction. But once the cash hits the system it propagates inflation. This of course takes time to appear, so it is rather hard to guess when to much is to much and out of fear of not being enough, that gut feeling is ignored. Then comes the Hyperinflation!” I feel satisfied in my explanation, but still there is hope in their eyes!
“So…” again that voice, though this time a bit more hesitantly.
“So!” I begin, “for those 15 to 30% of you without jobs, on meager fixed government monies, on pensions and savings…hahahaa….it’s over, in days and weeks, your money buys nothing as the fires of Depressionary-Hyperinflation burn it all away! You will beg, you will steal, you will burn in rage and hunger and as the living dead, you will fall upon those who still have jobs but are to poor themselves to help you and you will consume them to! Fire and flame, hunger and despair! Then you will, in your orgy of despair and destruction, turn to the saviors who will come to you, the demagogues who will enslave you! Then and only then, will you truly know suffering!” My voice rings in stark laughter. I am on my feet again, waving my staff…the dark clouds booming and rolling forth.
Now they understand, now they know, there is no hope, no salvation, not from this one. Some throw themselves at my feet, begging for salvation, others throw themselves from the nearby cliffs…but there is no salvation, no…only the Fires of Depressionary-Hyperinflation.
My laughter is swallowed by the rolls of thunder.
My husband retired 4 years ago as a civil servant for the Federal Gov’t. We lived in San Diego and quickly moved knowing that we wouldn’t be able to afford to live there anymore. We got a great price when we sold our home there and moved to So. Utah. We became debt free. No mortgage and paid off our car. We put our money into annuities. We don’t make much money on our investments but we don’t lose anything. Others have told us that we were crazy for locking up our money but we’re glad everyday that we did it.
We’ve also bought lots of food storage and planted a garden that is now feeding us.
Dear Martin , I am 87, in good health , no aches , no pains , and no medications. I am
happily married for 65 yrs but my wife has health problems ( a severe stroke 3 yrs ago
and a broken hip 3 months ago ) . We are long time members of an HMO so medical
expense co-payments are no problem but I am the principal caregiver and time is a
problem in that I (willingly) must be c lose at hand all the time . My wife is not bedridden
but requires a walker or wheel chair to move about. She will not have a paid stranger in
the house to help with housekeeping and cooking . Despite her handicap she does all
she can to help. Financially we are comfortable but not wealthy. We cannot afford $500,000 to invest in your suggested portfolio. We do have invested about 66% of
our available capital in bank CDs and 33% in conservative mutual funds paying dividends. We own our house and automobile with no payments and have no debts .
We live conservatively on Social Security and the income from investments noted above.
At my age and my responsibilities I am concerned with preserving my present capital
and income for living expenses. So far I have lost about 20% (paper loss) of my
investment in the market and I can live with that and not lose sleep. Your newsletter
leads me to fear that it may become much worse. Do you have any suggestions ?
I do read and appreciate the information in your newsletter. Your viewpoints are clearly
made and supported with facts . Thank you . Jack
Dr. Weiss:
Your recommendation on (GROW) was great, but a little late. You recommended that we buy it on Monday morning under $7.00. Trouble was when it opened Monday it was at $7.45 and went up all day. Tuesday same thing UP. Wednesday it fell a little but not to $7.00. By Thursday it was at $10.20. NICE PICK!!!
Nice pick but my complaint is that probably 90% of your subscribers didn’t get in on it.
Wish you had said BUY Monday at Market.
Can you come up with another great pick like that, that the rest of us can take advantage of ?????????
I’ve been waiting for a deal like that to make up some of my losses last year, but the mistake I made was to follow your recom. to the letter and not buy over $7.00. Wish I had jumped in at $8.32.
Please give us another jewel like that one, so the rest of us can make some money too!
Gary
P.S. I love your advice and believe you’re right on track about the future. Please give us some HELP with something that will help in the Rally’s. Your Inverse funds are all down for now, but I’m holding because I expect worse times ahead as you seem to. Loved your pick on (GROW) just wish it had come 24 HOURS sooner.
Thanks
Gary
I’m an ex US fan. The US has gone from world leader to a world bleeder. It’s always been the envy of the world. Three elections & USA is a banana republic. The financial situation is reversable in days. Bid gold to $10,000 an once, adopt the gold standard.
Instant recovery, Nixon took the US out of deep shite by adopting the Keenesian crap.
A real leader can short circuit this carefully planned Angela Mercle/OECD farce in hours.
What crises? nothing has changed, everything is still in place, only the numbers have changed and a few idiots have overeached. This thing started gordon brown giving a large bank free taxpayers cash. A week later every company in the world wants their share or they’ll retrench workers by the thousand. Sounds like balckmail to me. The UK is leftwing, socialist, the gold standard would cripple it and many US detractors, force the world to adopt their standard or sink. It worked when they dropped free trade and it’ll do even better now. USA holds the bigger gold reserve on the planet, it was bought at less the $13 an ounce. The current new discoveries in Texas and Nevada would keep it as a world leader but not for long with a leftwing wanker at the helm. It’s very simple elect only those who do not seek power, vote only for the deserving and preserve the honour and the power. The way forward is downsize government, stop international interference, restrict all political and civil service remuneration to the national average or below, remove politicins ability to determine their own wages.
I remember the advice my teacher gave me years ago which he discovered for himself many years ago. He was born in 1956 and lived until the age of 53. He saw many people invest in many schemes, some of which provided the promise of good profits in the short term and most of which cost more than they made. He always said that nobody should invest more money in stocks and shares than they could afford to loose, rather invest in bricks and morter. People will always need a home so investing in property is sound. Do not rely on any quick profit – most schemes loose in the long term.
Mr. Weiss thankyou for your guidance in these disturbing times i joined your mcp and have confidence in mr. vogt abilities . The mitzvah your providing and guidance is reassuring my wifes portfolio took beating and i vowed it won’t happen again your father is smiling right now because he taught you well about compassion especially for the kinder. When you said you were doing this in honor of your father i knew this endeaver in the portfolio will succeed have a nice weekend and g-d bless .
I follow Money and Markets and Uncommon Wisdom. Seeking Alpha has very good info also. I like this blog. Thank you.
I find trends and invest accordingly, such as a falling dollar (invest in foreign curiencies), rising energy, rising precious metals (particulary silver), and am watching commodities.
Dear Martin,
I feel that other than hard assets, this is strictly a traders market so I am relying on your team to do the best you can ,knowing that no one picks only winners.
THANKS
Michael
gold price is sure acting peculiar. if all the wise are buying gold how does it drop 15.00 in five minutes time? what’s with this theory of JP Morgan holding over 60% of the short positions and the manipulation of the gold market. Can you address that please? What do you make of GATA. How long can this continue to go on? I can not see it myself that any investors are dumping gold at this stage unless they are aware that such as this exists. The gold related headlines are a joke. One day we inflation worries, the next day not? Do we have another perfect storm brewing for naught in the gold sector. If Iran and Korea can have nukes now, maybe we also need new beginnings in the gold market. Just ranting in frustration.
I have web TV no computer. So attachments requiring a computer I can’t bring up. I am a very conservative, 78 year old long term investor in a Int’l growth fund that’s done OK past 20+ years. We subscribe to your Safe Money Report and have your “Ultimate Depression” book. I am just now reviewing prospectuses from 4 short term MMFs you recommeded on page 99-100. I plan to open an account with one of them in event I decide to bail out of my Intl fund.
I just moved out of my company 401 K due to lack of investment choices and retirement. Now in the contrarian club under the Million Dollar Portfolio but going slow with it. I’m finding the Blog comments useful and insightful: they fill a gap in many questions I have with personal investing. I’m going to make my own choices but certainly appreciate the educated comments on the Blog.
Thanks everyone
Hi Martin
This is a quote from Bloomberg’s press release:
“Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced new plans to discuss the creation of an alternative currency to the U.S. dollar with Brazil, India, and China later this month.”
It is apparent, or it should be, that this country is heading over the cliff, unless we do something about it! I realize that our investments are the most driving force in the current and future plans of our nation, but what about the “hidden” agenda being massaged throughout the country and the world? The total demise of the USA. There is nothing stopping this administration from completing it’s task. They will NOT listen to the people. What currency or what country do we invest in should this action take place? The value of the dollar is losing at a rapid pace. I realize that this may be a question that cannot be answered with a simply “this is what we should do” statement, however, the question should be addressed. Should we be investing more in China’s, Brazil’s, or India’s market? Should we be buying more gold? I am following your recommendations for the Million Dollar portfolio with the little bit that I have left, but am concerned as to playing with US dollars. The way things are going in this country, it appears that FOOD will be the greatest asset. I recently joined the http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org. This is the group that has started the Continental Congress of 2009. Anyone with a working brain, which excludes 65% of Americans, should get involved. They are backed by the Freedom Force International group. What are your thoughts, Martin? Thank you, Bettie Blecke
You asked me what I need, so here it is. I keep my IRA completely safe in Treasuries per your advice. I have a small fund that I have tried Penny Stocks, Long term one company investments, etc, etc, etc. I am currently doing Margins and have used Tony in the past but was not satisfied because he never told us when to get out. I currently use two oher advisors. My problem is that I am not smart enough nor do I have the time to learn “when to get out” and my advisors never tell me, at least not all the time or never. So, my request would be options with a beginning to end strategy advice.
Two questions: 1. Should we have 40% of our portfolio in our Annuity invested in TIPS as recommended by our agent? and 2. Should we begin taking out our 7% withdrawals for the next 14 years or attempt to keep build up our account back up to where it was using limited investment options?
I really wish Obama would get impeached before he does anymore damage.When are people going to wake up?
Martin
What is your reaction to using 5 to 6 month put and call options to purchase your portfolio recommendations in liew of buying the shares outright. The strategy if your recommendations were still in effect at the end of 5to 6 months would be to purchase another 5 to 6 month option untll you recommend selling it?
We keep track of many stocks with a spreadsheet based watchlist. Also, we use SPY to keep track of market trends on another spreadsheet. We use the sort facility to quickly find the best or worst dozen or so(based on key statistics) when buying and selling. Then these are looked over carefully. The SPY prices spreadsheet generate a graph. This makes it easy to buy on the dips and sell on the rips. The primary watchlist helps us sell the poor companies and buy the better ones.
Since extra money is only available when the social security arrives, that is when we invest. The priority is: first, “reality” investments (garden, solar, do-it-yourself, etc); second, buy or sell per dip or rip, with cash equivalents or other acting as the balance wheel. At the top of a rip, we’ve sold many of our worst ones, and are high on cash, by the bottom of a dip, the opposite is true, although we keep enough cash for emergencies and opportunities. To reduce the “noise,” we wait for two months change of direction on the SPY based graph. In between, we add to the cash position. When buying, we first set the price a bit above the 52 week low, raising it next month if there are no sellers. In selling, we start slightly below the 52 week high, and move down if needed. Basically, we are trying to aim for long term investing, while using a “diode equivalent” method of making use of the volatility.
I forgot to mention: we use limit buys and sells to produce the diode effect. Also, the is time intensive. In retirement, I have the time, but would like to be able to download the statistics into a spreadsheet. Could anyone point to a published method of doing this?
What is a long term position with huge potential? I believe that if you ignore the short term then we are all guarantreed a huge move up as the economy adjusts to dollar devaluation and inflation. The Dow can easily adjust upward to 30 to 40 thousand several years from now. Therefore, why not buy 2X or 3X bull fund in larg cap blue chips and forget it. Just a few thousand in such an investment could reward with hundreds of thousands of dollars. Dont believe? Check a chart of such funds from the 6400 bottom to recent high of 8400. Now, that was 2000 points, so consider the end result of a move to 35 or 40 thousand in the Dow. RR
Go long two year treasuries; short ten year treauries; I remember the Carter Administration and a lot of what is going on now parallels his administration. We are going to see double digit interest rates or worse to see China stil buying our paper.
Is the economy contracting at a slower rate, or is the statistical data being manipulated to understate the actual number of people newly unemployed? Do the labor statistics track un employment numbers for both small employers and large employers?
Like several others who have posted messages, I do not believe in long-term holding and have not done so for several years, and I do not intend to hold the Million Dollar Portfolio (MDP) recommendations more than a few days at most without trading them. I use technical analysis to determine buy and sell points and use very tight stop losses and then may reenter hopefully (and usually) at a lower price if stopped out. To do this I probably will invest (trade) only liquid stocks. Also, commissions will not affect this strategy since they are negligible (one dollar per hundred shares, less per share for larger numbers of shares). I am a successful day trader of many years experience, and I am subscribing to the MDP for that part of my capital that exceeds the quantity that can be day-traded, although I will at times daytrade portions or even entire positions in the MDP. I am looking forward to obtaining insights from the MDP that will maximize the gains and minimize losses in my investments.
**
Well, last year I rode Blue Chip Growth (Navalier) recomendations all the way down to a 46% loss, then
started selling until mid March, soooo I’v been out except for Gold and some Oil. Bot inverse ETF’s and under water with them. So I have missed this short term rally but could have been worse.
I KNOW this thing will turn and when it does it will be brutal!
My wife and I are 76 this year.
Gold prices increase; energy prices are increasing, dollar is falling in value, and unemployment rates, a coincident indicator, continues to rise in percentage terms. I am an investor interested in long term investing i and in monitoring and understanding the economic trends as well as the companies that will make money from those long term trends. What can technical analysis tell me about how a stock or industry sector will trade before the market opens? Is the stock market being manipulated upward by traders with TARP funds; and is this manipulation, if it exists, creating the current stock market rally?
Planning for long term investing is very difficult since uncertainty is the most certain expectation we have. Many examples are available for key stocks, ie, GE DD AIG C etc., etc. I think we have to think in terms of now with a strong eye on our investments emplooying a profit or loss strategy. You have to treat investing as a business methiod of increasing your wealth. wITHOUT A SPECIFIC PLAN, it is easy to lose track and it so easy to have profits disappear or losses take over. In other words, you have to be a manager of your money and a planner of what you want to attain and whaere you expect to go. A diversified plan of investing is the safest although not the ultimaate in gains. Keep in mind that we know a lot less than what we think we do.
I pulled out of the market at 6,600 after following your dialogue in Money Markets. I must admit that I have been rather shocked at the skyrocketing market. When does the reality of inflation, higher interest, huge deficits begin to impact the market and what will be the outcome on the market in the next 12 to 18 months? I am “frozen” in my current stale state of sideline viewing as the market has soared. Gordon
Hi I am following you since de last year,and now with your Contrarian Portafolio. I lost a lot of money in the market, and at Stanford International Bank, and now 50% of my remaining assets are inexplicably and unfairly frozen for de SEC. I have a great position at TZA and I want to know if it is compatible with your Contrarian Portafolio, or might I sell it, increase it or change it??. I know all the responsability is on mine. Thank you very much.
I ordered a copy of your book and I am awaiting delivery. I am mostly concerned about protecting the value of my savings.
I am with Mr. George can not walk for two-way short-term and long-term aim is one of the cases, taking into account the safety starter
Dear Mr Weiss.
Firstable I would like to thank you for giving us the opportunity of discuss with you on your personal blog.
As a member of your Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio my first priority is to follow the #1 Law of the portfolio: Protect Capital. My doubt is that since Claus Vogt states that S&P500 is at 18 P/E right now, and it must fell to less than 10 12-month P/E in a bear market, why have we bought some stocks with P/Es around 16+?.
I am a longer-term investor and I am following the recos of your Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. However, I would like to be able to trade a small portion of my funds on the rallies (15%), but I don’t feel I have the technical knowledge to do it.
Finally, I would like to know if the Money and Markets Letter in German of Claus Vogt is a mere translation of the Money and Markets Letter, or it focuses on the European Market.
Thank you and Best Regards. God Bless you too,
Ricardo Basauri
Dear Dr. Weiss,
China used warning shots that Tim G. did not hear. China speaks softly and usually only once. Does Obama and the rest need hearing aids? I am very worried about the US government’s attitude toward their spending/borrowing. Does our government think they are too BIG & BAD To FAIL? The market indicators vs what the market does are bipolar in behavior. If the IMF changes to a new monetary base, away from the US Dollar, and China/Russia create the new IMF currency basis; then what stock/ETF(s) can be purchased to profit by this move?
???? I was told that the IMF is controlling the price of Gold. Is that true?
Martin,
My tools are rather simple since I have not invested in individual stocks up to this point in time. Generally, in these type of markets, I stay pretty much in cash and watch for opportunities to invest. I watch the SP 500 and use it assess my risk/reward potential and also to invest in. For example, I got into the market in 2003 and rode it up till August 2007. When it started to approach record levels, that told me the PE was getting too high and the upward potential was far less than the downside risk. As a result, I got out of the market and avoided the most of the pain.
Currently, If you look at Vanguard’s SP 500 index fund on Big Caharts, the market has been essentially moving sideways since late October with two opportunities to make some decent return. The last, which started on 3/9, has been the most lasting and I mised going back into stocks because of my belief that the market was being manipulated by the investment bankers, and I still believe that today. Should I have taken the risk? In any event, I think there will be other opportunities down the road. What I have learned from this bear market is to have patience. Well placed entries into the market when the risk/reward ratio is in your favor will provide better returns than using Las vegas style investing to capture short term bumps in equity prices.
Since I don’t have the tools or experience to pick individual stocks, where the best profit making potential is, I joined your Million Dollar Portfolio. Your voice is one of the few sane voices out there and I like Clause’s investment strategy. I won’t be bothered one bit if he gets in a little too late or out to early. Trying to get the last squeal from the pig is what gets you into trouble. I hope to do better than I could have on my own and look forward to being educated. Thanks for the opportunity.
Chuck L.
really inspiring and great insight into the markets and function. Very practical and up to date . Thanks so much.
Like many of your faithful, I have tried all sorts of strategies. Back in the 90’s I bought and sold every day. During the 1st decade of the new centenial, I have bought and held. Unfortunately, the last 10 years have really hurt my finances and today, I am devoid of any stock (except in my company 401K). I am looking for the right contrarian EFT to buy but with an E*trade account, just finding a list of them has been unyielding. I am thinking of treasury bills (13 week) for at least 1/2 of my cash but worry about even the government’s future.
Right now I am paralized as far as how to invest. I think that gold is too, high and I do not trust the stock market. I do not want the long term committment of real estate other than my primary home. I do not want to keep my currency in dollars because this government is destroying its value. What to do?
Ive traded for 25 yrs some good some not I use a set of rules I learned the hard way to follow.They are:
Risk only what I can afford to loose, 5% of cash.
Sell covered calls on stocks I hold and that will make it thru the most difficult times.
There will always be an economy.
Remember KISS keep it simpel silly
Mike
In my investment I looked to Dr. Weiss and for the team of experts for guidance in the economic outlook. I respected your expertise and since you and your team of experts highly recommended Inverse ETFs (e.g. SRS, SKF, SEF, EEV, FXP) in this economic time , I too THOUGHT it was a brilliant idea – UNTIL I LOST substantial amount of money. I found too late holding these Inverse instruments how TOXIC and DESTRUCTIVE these kind of instruments are. As many others and I have shared, it’s been a very painful experience. I do not want others to go through this pain. You can LOSE EVEN in Market DECLINE.
I’m grateful for the blog site Dr. Weiss provides and for the several bloggers who care enough to warn us of the danger of Inverse ETFs through the following site:
http://www.optionszone.com/trading-ideas/2009/03/inverse-etfs-dont-trust-the-name.html
Dr. Weiss, it’s been your mission to steer us from harms way. I hope again you can steer us from harms way by helping us to avoid the pitfall of the Inverse instruments.
Respectfully,
Kitty
First of all, thank you Weiss Team for being very instrumental in the saving of about 50% of my lifetime IRA stash. I was fully and diversly invested in 2007. Your articles warned in advance and I used them to pull mostly into cash by the first week of Jan. 2008. Cash was King in 2008 and saved my entire IRA net worth. Thank you, thank you. thank you.
My investment style is both day trading futures (use http://www.livewithoscar.com) and intermediate term with ETFs. I am a trend trader and will buy/sell bull/bear ETFs in strongly trending moves to take advantage of “bear market rallies” and the downside also.
Yes, I too would like to put some money in a couple of currencies outside the U.S. dollar. I have heard the Swiss Franc may be adviseable. Can anyone give me their take on what they believe would be the most stable currencies in the future? And please explain why such currencies would be stable. Thanks..
I am a value investor. I have followed Warren Buffett and Ben Graham for quite a few years now. I have found some good value stocks in this economy and am doing quite well with them. Good capital gains as well as 12% dividends on some, and I think there will be more tremendous buys in the days to come. This is the time to buy. When there is blood in the streets. Just do your due diligence before investing. There is always risk, but make sure it is calculated.
Hi Martin,
Inverse ETF’s (and especially Gold ) are great buys when buying with US Dollars. When paying for US $’s with our strengthening Aussie $’s , the picture becomes dismal. Any suggestions ?
very interesting stuff. iam retiring this time next year i intend to be come more active .
very interesting stuff. iam retiring this time next year and i intend to become more active. regards tom.
I must agree with several previous readers. Inverse ETF’s are very dangerous. My only good experience with them has been with very short term investments (a few days at MOST).
Martin, you helped get me interested in Inverse ETF’s. As I mentioned, I HAVE made nice profits with some of them in the past. But, I wonder if your readers might be well served if you mentioned the potential decay in value of these ETF’s than occurs due to the compounding of daily tracking errors. I know that a LOT of people don’t understand that these ETF’s only seek to achieve their advertised performance on a DAILY basis.
A good example of a popular inverse ETF that has suffered tremendously from this is SRS. If you compare IYR (which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index directly) to SRS, you’ll see that the predicted performance of SRS decays rapidly the further back you go. Even over the period of a few weeks the performance of inverse ETF’s like SRS can be degraded significantly.
I’ve been bitten by this twice, once in EEV and now is SRS. I hope others are made aware of this potential trap.
The survivors of the ‘29-’39 period were people who lived within their limits of income, faith & family responsibilities…Has this ever been mentioned in the media or in Congress? Would this not be a proper spring board to move from NOW? JWM
I will retire next March 31 so I am investing in dividend paying stocks in oil, hydro, natural gas, and pipeline stocks and some junior silvers that don’t pay dividends.
Just finished your book. From what I read I believe that your father was a a great investor. I don’t however, think that he would invest in ethanol right now with what might be in the pipeline considered. Take hydrogen, for example. H has more latent energy than gasoline or ethanol, leaves no carbon footprint;is safer than gasoline since it does not burn and burn like gas; there is just water, same as would emerge from one’s tailpipe. To make we should use my patented Hydro Generator which converts the endless energy and substance of sea waves into endless hydrogen with only a kiss of oxygen for the atmosphere. You may want to check this out with Jamie Halliday at the Department of Energy.I can if you request it, give you his e-mail address
Happy Investing,
Bob Nadel
Martin after many warnings everywhere that the storm was comming and it finally came, I lost close to 35% of my overall wealth in a matter of a few months due to realstate declines, currency devaluatios, and stock markets plunge. now I am much more carefull than before in regards to investing heavily in the stock market, playing the expert in currencies and speculating with real state. From approaching many sources,and with the current very strong government interventions , your analysis helps my confidence and view of local and global trends . We will not see again the kind of returns we had before this crisis. So capital preservation and liquidity will allow us to recoup part if not all the losses in the medium term. Your backup data is very helpful to understand the current affairs and where we are most probably all heading. thanks Oscar
Marty, I am totally depending on you and your staff to guide me. I am following Claus’ advice to the letter, well bumping up the percent to include a whole stock rather than down so my percents are a bit blurry, but very close. I do not have the time, the patience, the expertise, or the desire to learn what you all know so well. I was a pre-school teacher for children with disabilities. I excelled in my profession and trust you to excel in yours. I also pray for you and am glad when you acknowledge God in a positive manner. We have so much to be thankful for. May the Lord bless you, guide you and yours, give you all His wisdom, knowledge, and timing.
Dorothy
Deflation storm is like a typhoon swell.
I’ve got a lot experience with surfing in typhoon season.
At first ,big swell coming and it hit all the surfer down to hell in the deep sea.
And next , quiet beautiful ocean, everybody so calm and smile each other..
Second big big swell coming and everybody loose confidence.
This behavior repeated over and over again.
I am 80 years old and interested in short term investments due to age and the economy.
I purchased Wells Fargo Bank which is up $10.00. Is it time to sell yet?
I have always been under the impressions that living in Europe meant having daily fight with rules and regulations and working for the sake of paying a lot of taxes while our governments kept piling on social programs , rescuing inefficient companies and building a lot of debt. Curiously it seems to me that rather than European Government finally start embrace free markets, it is now the turn of the US Government to start socializing losses and allocating money to the most inefficient entreprises. Obviously debt follows . Am I worng in thinking that the entire Developed World ( inclusive of Japan , debts World Champion ) is losing touch with basic economic common sense ?
it depends on what u.s government is aiming at. i strongly beleive that the government of united state of america will not go into what will affect the citizen and especially. thier lives as one body and on the same territory.
Martin. Sounds like a good plan. Longer term I am with you on the economy. But short term I have been losing money both on stocks and FX. It hurts to see one’s assets melt away!
Thanks John
You are correct on everything. I was very young during nthe last depression ane the real winners, listening to my Dad, were the ones who had CASH/and a few had salted away gold. I have a question. Suppose a person inherited gold and silver, and it is sitting in a Zurich banc, is now the time to cash the kilois of silver, and search for a house???Really would be grateful for a suggestion, mb
We are simple folk having worked the 9-5 all our lives. (Myself as a nurse and my husband a waiter.) We saved, stayed out of debt, paid our mortgages off early and lived simply. Fortunately we sold our homes/vehicles in the USA before it became so much harder to do so. We now live in a beautiful home in a 3rd world country. Last Fall we fired our planner, wisked much of what we had invested out of a losing market and were saved from utter disaster. We reinvested after reading authors such as Dr Weiss and Bob Prechter. On this last bounce we recaptured a considerable sum… This is the first time in our lives we have made investment decisions on our own. We proceed cautiously, listening and following very carefully Weiss/Prechter and investing to preserve capital and protect the fine lifestyle we now enjoy. So far…this reading and listening has saved us a TON of grief !! We believe we will be seeing many hard economic years ahead (inverse EFTs will bring smiles….soon…we believe that)
We thank God for you! Keep up the good work.
Since discovering your newsletters, I have not missed an online briefing. They have all been full of great information, and I intend to continue to attend all future online events.
Since the time of the 401k retirement investment plan started, millions of workers have invested their money into the plan along with their employer contributions. Most all of that money was invested in company stocks. It seems that the only money created on stocks is the dividends or profit that a company makes and divides among it’s stock holders. A dividend of 6% to 8% is considered a good return, but when you subtract the inflation loss of at least 4% (which will soon accelerate) per year and subtract the tax on the profits, there is very little profit and certainly not much left for retirement income.
How can the increasing number of retirees live off of the taxed dividends, which are next to nothing, expecially with company profits declining? Also, many companys are discontinuing the 401k’s that feed the system. If the retirees get desperate for income and start selling their stocks, won’t this drive stock values down, thus amplifying the problem?
Isn’t this like the old “chain letter” scheme where those that get in first win, but the vast majority that get in later loose their money? Thanks
I am a long term invester. I prefer stocks that pay good dividends. They should be in a stable business with demand that increases every year.
I am looking forward to your next program. Thanks for your help.
Dr. Weiss,
What do you think of the new Treasury gold-backed Dollar? A blogger above mentioned it but did not provide the web-links below. The new gold-backed Dollar was announced a week ago by Peter Schiff, gold and economic commentator of Euro Pacific Capital, and broadcast by Martin Hutchinson of Morning Money Report. Apparently we will be able to exchange unbacked Federal Reserve Dollars with new Treasury gold back Dollars. Here are the web-links:
http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/MoneyMorning/golddollar-060509.htm
http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/MMRBull0609.html?pub=MMR&code=LMMRK601
How will this affect the debasing and devaluing of the Dollar, which is apparently the defacto policy of the Fed and the Treasury now to ease public and private debt loads?
I have not been in the stock market long and do not completely understand everthing (I actually don’t think I ever will) but something has me questioning the price of stocks in all of this discusssion about inflation. My question is, how do stock prices relate to the rise in inflation? I understand that do to all the debt and printing of money our government has recently put into the system will eventually have to paid back by cutting spending or print more money to pay the debt off, in essence devaluing the dollar. As soon as Wall Street realizes this is the only solution our Government is going to take, inflation will take hold and rise accordingly. In addition, prices will go up (groceries, house hold consumables, business consumables, raw materials, etc.) as a result of all the cheap and plentiful money in circulation.
I also, understand that as cost go up profit margins will get thinner, therefore, corporate America’s bottom line is less and profit can not be found in the financial statements. But in inflationary times, I understand that prices go up to cover the added cost of doing business.
Will stocks go up as well; especially the financials as they have shot-up over the last three months in my humble opinion over a false pretense of adjusting bad debt off of the balance sheet by new accounting standards and a bunch off hot air from financial consultants. It appears that the financials do not have a solid base and if they go down in price then all this has been for naught. What are your thoughts on the price of stocks especially the financials, in an inflationary period. Will stock prices rise; therefore the markets remain higher or will stock prices decline and we may see another low/bottom due to inflation?
Thanks,
Kal
Well Martin,
What a day! What a day! The market is where? I’m down on every single stock I have purchased. A 100% wipe out and the market doesn’t even look like is is moving very much. The bullish activity this morning was so strong that I sold my QID and SH inverse ETFs. and the market turned that very 10min. interval. Lost. It will cost me about $150. to get those backi. I will bet you any amount of money that within the next couple weeks those ETFs will never again reach that price where I sold because of the indications this morning. IF you feel like placing some bets call me. MY gold fell so hard the day I purchased it that it still has not recovered. This is enter market munipulation and they are getting away with it. Sean was in a real state in his video. He looked like he had been threatened by a FED. Now do you belive me this is a Fascist state we are now in?
Steven Hougland
Martin,
Over at Investools I tuned into a daily rap up and they casually said the commondities pulled the market down like it was a segment thing. I go into searches and there were NO survivors today. It doesn’t matter how you diversify nor whether you are playing it bearish or bullish. They have an answer for all of it. I swear those ETFs are owned and operated by day traders. They are not going to let anyone make any money but them.
Maybe tomorrow will be a better day. The price I paid for gold is evidently the new resistance line. Oil is taking the money I made on it back, when everything says going up. Agriculture taking enough of a dip that I will be lucky to get it back.. TBT same thing.
Steven Hougland
QUESTION RE : PMI insurance . For as long as I can remember …. anyone taking out a home mortgage ( with less than a 20% down payment ) has been required by law to purchase Private Mortgage Insurance ………until they have at least 20% equity in their house . After you have your mortgage paid down to the 20% equity threshold …you can call your lender and cancel the PMI and stop paying for it . EXCEPT !!!!!…….If the market value of your home declines to the point that the payoff of your loan is more than 80% of your home’s appraised market value………you are REQUIRED to once again start paying PMI . PMI does NOT protect the home buyer ( who pays for it ) . PMI protects
then LENDER……by paying off the mortgage IF THE HOME BUYER DEFAULTS
ON THEIR LOAN .
With PMI requirements in place ………how is it even possible that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ever needed a taxpayer bailout ? The PMI should have paid for most ( if not ALL ) of the mortgages that went into default . Through all the good years that the real estate markets have had……….PMI should have been able to build up
TREMENDOUS capital reserves . Even now ……all the people paying PMI( and don’t forget those people who have paid their mortgages down …. but are now once again being required to pay PMI ) are putting A LOT of money into somebody’s coffers to pay for the defaulted loans ….IN ADDITION TO THE THE TAXPAYER BAILOUT ;
Where……DID / IS ………all THAT money ….GO /GOING ??????
This mechanism of PMI …..by itself would probably NOT have prevented the housing crisis itself………But ; it should have prevented the housing crisis from spilling over….even into Fannie Mae , Feddie Mac and from there …into the rest of the economy . After all.. weren’t the bond holders at least partially protected by the PMI
insurance ( that they didn’t even have to pay for ) ?
If done properly…..shouldn’t PMI requirements have prevented a housing bubble from forming in the first place ? Shouldn’t the housing market have been ” slowed down” by the fact that …..new ( and excessive ) housing loans could not have been made until the ( required by law ) PMI had increased its capital reserves to adequately cover any possible defaults on the NEW loans ?
I think these are good questions . Maybe you should ask an expert……our good friend Barney Frank …..how this cautiously conservative mechanism of PMI ( required by law ) was allowed to fail .
Mike Pierce
Beavercreek,
OHIO 6/15/09
Hello,
I am wondering about this: During the Great Depression, was there many insiders selling their stocks during rallies?? I am seeing lot of this today.
Thank for any help
William
Naw we not…smh I’ve never been on welfare sweety or low-income all my bills are paid cash & not by my (cont) tl.gd/ccjejf