Jan 6, 2009 (WALL STREET JOURNAL) — In an early sign that some steel prices may have bottomed out, steelmakers in the U.S., China and some other countries are attempting limited price increases and reopening a handful of mills that were closed because of weak demand a few months ago.
It isn’t clear whether the price increases will stick, however. Steel sellers often announce price increases or special surcharges, only to relent in the face of customer opposition or if rivals don’t follow suit. Nor is it clear whether the price increases reflect more demand or lower inventories.
Troubled auto makers, contractors, appliance and equipment makers have cut back on their steel purchases. The majority of mills closed over the last few months remain shuttered and many around the world are operating below 50% of their capacity.
But steelmakers signaled cautious optimism that there is enough demand to support price increases in some parts of the world. Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Technologies Inc. said it would increase its surcharges on electrical steel by 55% beginning in February to $321 a short ton. (A short ton is about 0.9 metric ton.) Surcharges are tacked on to base prices, typically to account for raw-material costs, and can change monthly.
AK Steel Holding Corp., based in West Chester, Ohio, said it is raising the surcharge on February shipments of electrical steel to $165 a short ton from $10 a short ton. The percentage can’t be calculated because the company doesn’t reveal its base prices.
ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker by output, said it will reopen its wire rod mill in Georgetown, S.C., next Tuesday. The Luxembourg-based company on December 5 shut down much of the mill, laying off 300 workers, citing slack demand and low prices.
In China, several steel mills have announced price increases ranging from 5% to 25% for a variety of products. Baosteel Group Co. and Anshan Iron & Steel Group Corp. said that they will raise their prices for hot-rolled coil steel, a basic product that is processed into many steel applications. Baosteel also said it will increase production at some of its mills.
Japanese steel-industry executives said Tuesday they expect the steel market to start recovering around midyear as inventories decline and steelmakers reduce output.
Steel is a bellwether industry for the world economy. The proposed price increases and isolated plant openings indicate that parts of the global industrial base might be less anemic than they were.
Steel analysts, noting that the market remains generally weak, said the proposed price increases may reflect decreased inventories rather than stronger demand. “Steel demand will likely remain weak in 2009,” according to Moody’s Investors Service. “We expect that the rate of downward movement will slow and that a level of stabilization should occur in the second half.”
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
last weeks online meeting with martin was interesting as always,but it really devolved into an infomercial feel. Every time you got a camera shot there was a picture of christofer dodds uncle next to your head. The moving backgrounds gives it a cheap feel like cnn or fox production. it is scary that martin has no fear of a us treasury default. just trade the fiat forex market and recapture your lost paper. your facial expression wanted to scream out buy physical gold and silver.it really looked like the pot of frogs,hot feet and sweaty,but no one jumps out. Martin is probably right when he says we will survive this,although assuming there will still be a market for us treasury toilet paper or conterfeit us federal reserve notes forces us to question his motive. ask him if he knows what a constitutional US dollar is(371.25 grains of silver) overnight devaluation of 10,20,30,50% or more will bring the spotlight back to the metal men. be careful spending time around paper men,they are flammable. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE HISTORICAL MOMENTS TO BE 100% precious. KEEP ALL CASH IN CHANGE. at least it will have some purchasing power as metal.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 26th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Appreciate your comments, and I agree with you on metal!
Hi Larry, I’m your big fan since last year. and I regret my unluck I didn’t find you 3 years ago when gold was much cheaper. But still your analysis so superb, it’s as precious as yellow metal to me!!
The webcast 7 forecast in 2009 was so informative and well organized including the last 10 minutes ads for the invitation into new currency market.
But one thing I personally fear in that invitation ads into the currency market is… today, no money should be fundamentally stronger than the other, since all the currency looks like set ready for the devaluation by endless printing days ahead. Now looking at the current market tide, we see strong dollar and weakening Euro. Unfortunately enough, I have never ever seen any logical explanation for this power balance, did you? Actually I’m a Japanese, so when I talk about JPY, JPY happened to be the strongest currency in these three right now. What a joke.. this is, for a Japanese, even more no sense phenomena and personally cannot let my precious money play in the currency market where mysterious power is in effect.
Anyway, I just believe in super bull in the gold until it hits 2000$ or economic turmoil will settle for a while.
Lots of people in the web talk about the difficulty in getting tangible real gold bar in contrast to paper gold. But it doesn’t apply to here at least in Japan.. It’s one of my mystery these days.
One day, do you foresee the situation when you will recommend us to hold on to the real gold, before it turns out to be late.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 3rd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
You should definitely own some physical gold – my recommendation: Up to 6.25% of your investable funds.