Which of these three charts do you think spells more trouble?
Already, U.S. foreclosures have topped 250,000 for the 10th straight month. This chart tells me that there is plenty more pain to come.
Nominal retail sales decreased 10.6% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 9.7%), real retail sales declined by 10.9% (on a year over year basis).
The bounce yesterday was pathetic. The market is down triple-digits today.
So, which of these three charts do you think is more ominous? The ballooning pile of mortgages that will potentially default, the plunge in retail sales, or the swoon in the stock market? I’d be interested in your opinion
In Other News
Quote of the day…
We hate you guys. Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] …we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do.
– Lueo Ping, China Regulatory Commission (02/11/09)
My advice to Mr. Lueo Ping: There is something you can do. Buy gold.
I’ve read a lot of comments on the statement by Congressman Mike Capuano (D-Mass) at the banking hearing yesterday.
Some people think he makes the bankers look good by being too rough on them. I say anyone who thinks Capuano is too over the top just doesn’t get it. This guy should run for governor of Massachussets. I think he’d win.
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Sean,
Since there is much evidence that reckless borrowing and relaxed lending in the housing market created this mess we’re in, I suspect the chart depicting a mountain of mortgage resets in the coming months may spell more trouble ahead. It appears that lower retail sales and falling stock prices are a consequence of the financial troubles in real estate arena.
Thanks for all your great insight during these troubling times!
Two things I see. One, they are still pushing subprime, even in the face of proof the loans are mainly toxic. Delaying the inevitable I guess.
Lastly, when you factor in the inflation on food (food prices are way up, and not falling), and the deep discounts in the rest of the retail sector, a 10% drop is pretty scary. How far would that drop be registering if actual food prices were took into account?
Apparently experts don’t shop for food Americans eat, they are always way off on their numbers.