Well, since the markets are pulling back a bit today, I thought I’d just do a very quick recap of the nice run stocks put together during the month of March.
Overall, the S&P 500 jumped 23% in just 13 trading days, its best run since 1938. Nice …
Until you add a little more context, of course. For the entire first quarter of 2009, stocks posted their sixth consecutive quarterly loss. This matches the last string of 6 consecutive quarterly losses set back in 1968-1970. What’s more, it produced a much bigger overall loss (-47.7% vs. -30%).
Back on the positive side, that late 60s loss fest led to a 62.3% gain into 1972. Could a similar — or even bigger – rally be in the cards this time? It’s worth noting that the ”500″ would need to basically double to get us back to where we were before.
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Markets are due and will pull back. There is no fundamental reason for them to go up. As Q1 numbers start to come out, people will wake up and stop dreaming that all is well.
Personally I think that this runup is just to benefit those executives with stock options. Just like Wagoner did to GMs stock the week before he was “removed”.
I’m sitting ready to pull my cash out of bank, even though it is stable, the minute I hear that the head of one of the major banks is leaving his post. The writing will be on the table for our complete financial collapse.